Program Related Publication Feeds

The Iran Nuclear Agreement: Beyond Partisan Infighting: Mark II

sherry — Wed, 19 Aug 2015 00:00:00 -0400

American partisan ideological extremism is in full swing and on a bipartisan basis. It has been a little over a month since the signing of the P5+1 nuclear agreement with Iran on July 14th, and a month since the vote of the UN Security Council to accept it.

The Iran Nuclear Agreement and Iranian Energy Exports, the Iranian Economy, and World Energy Markets

sherry — Mon, 17 Aug 2015 00:00:00 -0400

Much of the examination of the Iran nuclear agreement has focused on the funds that would be released once Iran complied with the terms of the agreement. Some estimates of the near term cash benefit that Iran will receive have gone as high as $150 billion – although U.S.

The Nuclear Agreement with Iran and the Growing U.S. Strategic Partnership with the Arab Gulf States

sherry — Mon, 27 Jul 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The proposed nuclear agreement with Iran has created deep concerns on the part of America’s Arab allies over the possibility that it could lead the United States to turn away from its present strategic partnerships and somehow shift to Iran. It has also reinforced the tendency to create conspiracy theories about U.S. willingness to support its Arab allies, U.S.

More than Keeping Up the Facade: The U.S.-GCC Summit at Camp David

sherry — Fri, 15 May 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The declarations that follow summit meetings rarely disclose much of substance, and the declaration following the U.S.-GCC summit at Camp David is no exception.

The Arab Gulf and the U.S. Strategic Partnership in Ballistic Missile Defense

Mon, 04 May 2015 00:00:00 -0400

Iran presents a wide range of challenges to U.S. strategic interests that go far beyond nuclear proliferation. It is steadily improving the number, range, and accuracy of its conventional ballistic and cruise missiles, as a way to offset the U.S. and Arab Gulf advantage in modern air power and surface-to-air missile defenses.

Military Spending and Arms Sales in the Gulf

Tue, 28 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0400

There are many ways to measure the Gulf military balance, but one key indicator is to look at the relative size of Gulf military expenditures and the size and nature of Gulf arms imports and transfers of military technology. The Burke Chair has prepared a detailed comparison of key estimates of both military spending and arms transfers, drawing upon official sources as well as the work of

Yemen and Warfare in Failed States

Wed, 22 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0400

It is still unclear what the end of the Saudi-led air campaign that made up “Operation Decisive Storm” or “Determined Storm” really means.

America’s Failed Approach to Chaos Theory

Thu, 16 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The United States now faces a rapidly evolving world filled with new challenges at a time when real-world defense planning is focused on budget cuts, when U.S. “strategy” lacks plans and program budgets, and when talk of strategic partnership lacks clear and specific direction. Far too much U.S. strategic rhetoric is a hollow shell, while the real U.S.

Judging a P5+1 Nuclear Agreement with Iran: The Key Criteria

Mon, 30 Mar 2015 00:00:00 -0400

All too often in the real world, peace is an extension of war by other means. This is certainly the case with the P5+1 negotiations with Iran. The negotiations only have taken place because Iran faced sanctions and the equivalent of economic warfare.

America, Saudi Arabia, and the Strategic Importance of Yemen

Thu, 26 Mar 2015 00:00:00 -0400

Yemen is a growing reminder of just how important the strategic U.S. partnership with Saudi Arabia really is. It is one thing to talk about the war against ISIS, and quite another to realize that U.S. strategic interests require a broad level of stability in the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula and one that is dependent on Saudi Arabia as a key strategic partner.

Judging a P5+1 Agreement with Iran: The Key Technical and Strategic Issues

Mon, 09 Mar 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The last few weeks have seen a polarized debate about a possible nuclear arms agreement with Iran that has sometimes gone from narrow partisanship to strategic infantilism. Both sides of the Iran debate have focused on a few narrow parameters of the overall agreement as distinguished from the real merits and risks of any proposed agreement.

The Iranian Sea-Air-Missile Threat to Gulf Shipping

jdunton — Fri, 27 Feb 2015 00:00:00 -0500

The Arabian Gulf is now involved in a massive arms race, triggered largely by the fear that Iran will try to use its military forces to intimidate or dominate its neighbors. Iran has threatened to close the Gulf and carried out a wide range of large military exercises to show its capabilities.

Clash For Civilization

Wed, 18 Feb 2015 00:00:00 -0500

The new outburst of violent terrorism in Paris, the threat of plans for other attacks in Belgium, and reports of other planned attacks by ISIS have all raised the specter of Jihadist attacks throughout Europe. They have also renewed all the fears and concerns that the tragedy of “9/11” caused in the United States.

Saudi Arabia’s Smooth Succession: The King is Dead, Long Live the King

Fri, 23 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0500

Once again, Saudi Arabia has managed its succession without problems, delay, or any signs of serious divisions within the royal family. One of its most competent and impressive kings has died, but the Crown Prince – Prince Salman – officially became king virtually at the time King Abdullah’s death was announced.

The True Nature of the Saudi Succession "Crisis"

sherry — Fri, 09 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0500

Every time a Saudi king gets seriously ill or dies, this triggers yet another media frenzy over a Saudi succession crisis. There is yet another round of speculation about major conflicts within the royal family, the destabilization of Saudi Arabia, and how the various tensions within the Kingdom could somehow trigger a civil crisis or conflict. King Abdullah’s illness is no exception.

Iran’s Rocket and Missile Forces and Strategic Options

jdunton — Tue, 30 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Iran’s rocket and missile forces serve a wide range of Iranian strategic objectives.

Iran, Evolving Threats, and Strategic Partnerships in the Gulf

Mon, 22 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The U.S. and its Arab partners in the Gulf face a wide range of threats. These include the Islamic State and other Jihadist elements, civil war, instability, and divisions in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. It is Iran, however, which poses the most severe military challenge, and one that goes far beyond its search for nuclear capability.

The Emirates Center and Gulf Think Tanks: The Next Twenty years

Wed, 10 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Presentation to the Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research (ECSSR), December 10, 2014, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

Let me begin by congratulating the Emirates Center and Dr. Jamal Sanad Al-Suwaidi for so many accomplishments over the last 20 years. It has been a privilege to watch its growth, its sustained quality, and its steadily increasing influence.

Key Trends in Gulf Security Partnerships, the Gulf Military Balance, Instability in Gulf States, and Iranian Nuclear Forces

Mon, 01 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The US and its Gulf allies face major crises in dealing with Iran, the Islamic State, and civil wars in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. The Burke Chair has recently issued five papers that focus on the key trends and data in these areas.

International Shifts and Their Security Impact on the Gulf: Quantifying Key Trends

Tue, 25 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0500

(In conjunction with the Third International Conference on Strategic Studies: Shifts and Changes in the World System and its Impacts on the Middle East; November 25-26, 2014, Doha, Qatar)

Iran's Nuclear Missile Delivery Capability

Mon, 24 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Recently there has been a lot of attention given to the “Possible Military Dimension” of the Iran Nuclear Program, in particular concerns over Iran’s ballistic missile program and its nuclear delivery capability.

Assessing a Deal or Non-deal with Iran

Thu, 20 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0500

It now seems unlikely that the P5+1 countries of the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany can reach a comprehensive agreement with Iran by the end of November. A final agreement remains a possibility, but it seems far more likely that if an agreement is not reached, the negotiations will be extended rather than abandoned all together.

Gulf Security, Stability, and Terrorism: Country Rankings

Thu, 13 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Much of the analysis of political instability, security problems, and terrorism in the Gulf and the Middle East focuses on the most serious immediate problem or key causes of the current rise in violence like religious extremism.

The Islamic State War: No Clear U.S. Strategy

Mon, 10 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The campaign against the Islamic State and the broader elements of Operation Inherent Resolve confront the US with some of the most complex problems in defining a viable strategy in its recent military history.

The Air War Against the Islamic State: The Need for An “Adequacy of Resources”

Wed, 29 Oct 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The United States has stated from the start that it is conducting an air campaign to degrade the Islamic State, not to change the military situation in Syria or to substitute for Iraqi political unity and the eventual use of Iraqi ground forces. This, however, raises several key questions:

The Imploding U.S Strategy in the Islamic State War?

Thu, 23 Oct 2014 00:00:00 -0400

It is too early to say that the U.S. strategy against the Islamic State is imploding, but it is scarcely too soon to question whether this is possible. In fact, it is far from clear that the original U.S. strategy ever planned to deal with the complications that have arisen since President Obama officially announced a portion of what that strategy really had to be.

Strategic Partnership in the Middle East: Respecting Our Arab Allies, Realism About Ourselves

Thu, 09 Oct 2014 00:00:00 -0400

It is easy to talk about a U.S. strategy based on strategic partnership and coalitions. It is far more difficult, however, to make such efforts work. This is particularly true when the U.S. fails to honestly address its own problems and mistakes, minimizes the costs and risks involved, and exaggerates criticism of its allies.

The Real Center of Gravity in the War Against the Islamic State

Tue, 30 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

Much of the debate over the air war and “boots on the ground” ignores the real center of gravity in the campaign against the Islamic State. There is no near-term possibility of any form of military victory unless the new Iraqi government can bring Iraq’s Arab Shi’ite, Arab Sunnis, and Kurds back together as some form of functioning state.

The Islamic State: The Case for Expanding the Air War

Tue, 23 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

No action the United States and President Obama takes can eliminate the fact that the campaign against the Islamic State involves major risks, many of which are beyond U.S. control:

Iraq, Syria, and the Islamic State: The "Boots on the Ground" Fallacy

Fri, 19 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

There are times the United States does not need an enemy in going to war. It poses enough of a threat to itself without any foreign help. The current debate over ground troops in Iraq and Syria threatens to be yet another case in point, compounding the American threats to America that have done so much damage in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and the earlier fighting in Iraq.

The Struggle for the Levant: Geopolitical Battles and the Quest for Stability

Thu, 18 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The United States and its allies compete with Iran in a steadily more unsettled and uncertain Levant. The political upheavals in the Middle East, economic and demographic pressures, sectarian struggles and extremism, ethnic and tribal conflicts and tensions all combine to produce complex patterns of competition.

The Campaign Against the Islamic State

Tue, 16 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

If there is any one lesson of the Afghan and Iraq Wars, it is that it is far easier to begin a conflict than to manage it well and achieve a meaningful form of victory.

The Indian Ocean Region

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is one of the most areas of the world in human terms. It includes a wide variety of races, cultures, and religions. The level of political stability, the quality of governance, demographic pressures, ethnic and sectarian tensions, and the pace of economic growth create a different mix of opportunity and risk in each state.

Winning the Campaign Against the Islamic State: Key Strategic and Tactical Challenges

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The United States does not have good or quick options in dealing with the Islamic State, in part because it faces serious challenges in Iraq and Syria that cannot be separated from any efforts to weaken and destroy the Islamic State. This, however, is not a reason to stand and wait for better options that do not exist.

Iraq: A Time to Act

sherry — Wed, 06 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

On June 10, 2014, the Iraqi city of Mosul fell to what is now called the Islamic State (formerly the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham or ISIS). Since that time, the Islamic State has shown a surprising ability to mix religious extremism with effective strategy and military action.

The New “Great Game” in the Middle East: Looking Beyond the “Islamic State” and Iraq

Wed, 09 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The U.S. has good reason to try to prevent the creation of a violent, extremist Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, to reverse the gains of ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria)/ ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham), and to help move Iraq back towards a more stable and unified form of government.

Internal Tensions in Iran: Some Underlying Metrics

Wed, 18 Jun 2014 00:00:00 -0400

Much of the discussion of the pressures on Iran focuses primarily on policy, and political and military issues. There are, however, some statistics and assessments by international bodies such as the World Bank that help illustrate the forces at work within Iran that shape its politics, economy, and ability to compete with the US and its allies in building up its military forces.

Hitting Bottom: The Maliki Scorecard in Iraq

Thu, 01 May 2014 00:00:00 -0400

Iraq is on the edge of civil war, and its election does not seem to have brought about any clear prospect of national unity or effective leadership.

Improving the US-GCC Security Partnership: Planning for the Future

Mon, 07 Apr 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The US and its allies in the Southern Gulf face great challenges, but they also have great opportunities.

The Need for a New “Realism” in the US-Saudi Alliance

sherry — Mon, 17 Mar 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The United States does not need to rebuild its alliance with Saudi Arabia as much as build a new form of alliance based on the new realities of the Middle East. Both sides need to recognize these changing realities, and the uncertainties involved, and develop a new level of cooperation. At the same time, they need to be more tolerant of the other side’s positions.

Maritime Security in the Middle East and North Africa: A Strategic Assessment

Thu, 06 Feb 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Political instability in Egypt, Somalia, and Yemen has raised security risks for the global shipping industry in the waters of the Middle East and North Africa.

Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the "Clash within a Civilization"

Mon, 03 Feb 2014 00:00:00 -0500

No one has ever been able to travel to the Gulf without discovering just how different the perspectives and values of the West and the Middle East can be. During the last two years, however, these differences have threatened to become a chasm at the strategic level.

Iran--Sanctions, Energy, Arms Control, and Regime Change

jdunton — Fri, 31 Jan 2014 00:00:00 -0500

This report analyzes four key aspects of US and Iranian strategic competition--sanctions, energy, arms control, and regime change. Its primary focus is on the ways in which the sanctions applied to Iran have changed US and Iranian competition since the fall of 2011.

The Gulf Military Balance: Volume I

jdunton — Fri, 31 Jan 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The United States faces major challenges in dealing with Iran, the threat of terrorism, and the tide of political instability in the Arabian Peninsula. The presence of some of the world’s largest reserves of oil and natural gas, vital shipping lanes, and Shia populations throughout the region have made the peninsula the focal point of US and Iranian strategic competition.

The Gulf Military Balance: Volume II

jdunton — Fri, 31 Jan 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The Gulf Military Balance: Volume III

jdunton — Fri, 31 Jan 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The P5+1 and Iranian Joint Plan of Action on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Nuclear Program: Assessing the Details and Risks

sherry — Fri, 17 Jan 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Until now, there has been no clear official statement regarding the technical understandings that the P5+1 and Iran reached on the Implementation of the Joint Plan of Action on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Nuclear Program on January 12, 2014.

U.S. Strategy and Added Sanctions on Iran: The Role of the Administration and Congress in a “Good Cop, Bad Cop” Approach

sherry — Thu, 16 Jan 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The proper handling of new legislation to impose added sanctions on Iran can be a useful tool in serving U.S. strategic interests. The differences between the United States and Iran are not the result of failures in communication, mutual misunderstanding, or the legacy of historical mistakes.

The Gulf and Middle East Strategic Partnerships: The Other Side of the Iran Negotiations

Tue, 22 Oct 2013 00:00:00 -0400

No one can deny the importance of trying to end Iran’s search for nuclear weapons. Even the most effective U.S. preventive strikes will leave a heritage of tension and confrontation in the Gulf that is likely to mean a continuing arms race and constant risk of some clash that will affect the flow of Gulf oil and the global economy.

Violence in Iraq in Mid 2013: The Growing Risk of Serious Civil Conflict

sherry — Thu, 22 Aug 2013 00:00:00 -0400

The rising level of violence in Iraq is difficult to measure and interpret, but it presents a serious risk that Iraq could return to the level of civil conflict it experienced during the mid-2000s. A new analysis by the Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS examines the patterns and trends in Iraqi violence since the departure of US forces at the end of 2011.