Program Related Publication Feeds

Key Trends in the Uncertain Metrics of Terrorism

pmeylan — Thu, 24 Mar 2016 00:00:00 -0400

It is now some 15 years since 9/11, the United States has not only conducted a constant campaign against terrorism since that time, but has been at war with violent Islamist extremists in Afghanistan, then Iraq, and then Syria.

Fear versus Fact: Getting the Facts on Terrorism

pmeylan — Thu, 17 Dec 2015 00:00:00 -0500

The last few weeks have been a grim warning that every major new terrorist attack creates the risk of overreacting to the point of panic, and of turning panic into prejudice.

Cooperation in Counterterrorism: Rhetoric vs. Reality

Tue, 20 Oct 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The rhetoric of cooperation in counterterrorism comes easily. The reality comes hard. Nations have very different views of who is a terrorist and who is a legitimate opponent to a given government.

The Background to Putin’s Actions in Syria and the UN: Russia’s New View of the US and Western Strategy: The Color Revolution

Fri, 02 Oct 2015 00:00:00 -0400

Far too much of the commentary on Russian military intervention in Syria, Vladimir Putin’s speech at the United Nations, and Putin’s relations with Barack Obama reverts to the mindreading era of Kremlinology. It takes Putin’s actions out of context and often says more about the author’s prejudices than it does about Putin.

The Long War in Syria: The Trees, the Forest, and All the King’s Men

Thu, 01 Oct 2015 00:00:00 -0400

Clichés are clichés, but sometimes it really is hard to see the forest for the trees. In the case of Syria, the “trees” include the UN debate between Obama and Putin over Syria and the fight against Islamic extremism, Russia’s sudden military intervention in Syria, the failure of the U.S. training and assist missions in both Syria and Iraq, and the developing scandal in USCENTCOM over exaggerated claims of success for the U.S.-led air campaign in Syria and Iraq.

Rethinking the Wars Against ISIS and the U.S. Strategy for Counter-Terrorism and Counter-Insurgency

Mon, 28 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0400

By the time a new President takes office, the United States will have been at war for roughly a decade and a half. What began as a limited war against terrorism has become a major counterinsurgency campaign in Iraq and Afghanistan, and U.S.

Yemen and Warfare in Failed States

Wed, 22 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0400

It is still unclear what the end of the Saudi-led air campaign that made up “Operation Decisive Storm” or “Determined Storm” really means.

America’s Failed Approach to Chaos Theory

Thu, 16 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The United States now faces a rapidly evolving world filled with new challenges at a time when real-world defense planning is focused on budget cuts, when U.S. “strategy” lacks plans and program budgets, and when talk of strategic partnership lacks clear and specific direction. Far too much U.S. strategic rhetoric is a hollow shell, while the real U.S.

Afghanistan at Transition

jdunton — Thu, 19 Mar 2015 00:00:00 -0400

This new study covers the civil and military lessons of the war in Afghanistan as of 2015, the trends at the time of transition, and the risks inherent in the current approach to supporting Afghanistan. The report focuses on the lessons to be learned from the US experience in Afghanistan to date and the problems Afghanistan faces now that most US and allied combat forces have left.

Clash For Civilization

Wed, 18 Feb 2015 00:00:00 -0500

The new outburst of violent terrorism in Paris, the threat of plans for other attacks in Belgium, and reports of other planned attacks by ISIS have all raised the specter of Jihadist attacks throughout Europe. They have also renewed all the fears and concerns that the tragedy of “9/11” caused in the United States.

The Metrics of Terrorism and Instability in Pakistan

sherry — Thu, 18 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Every American has to sympathize with the Pakistani people in the horror that befell them at the killings of so many school children. Every American parent can imagine the heartbreak of the Pakistani parents who suddenly lost their children for an extremist cause that offers only hatred instead of hope.

The Civil Transition in Afghanistan: The Metrics of Crisis?

Tue, 16 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

It is natural to focus on the security problems of Transition in Afghanistan, and the challenges of forming an effective government with Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah.

Afghan Forces on the Edge of Transition - Volume I

Tue, 16 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The United States and its allies are months away from ending their combat role in Afghanistan. The United States, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), and the Afghan Government have provided a substantial amount of data on the process of Transition, the course of the fighting, and the development and capability of Afghan forces.

The Strategic Cost of Torture, Racism, and Bigotry

Mon, 15 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

It is natural for Americans to see the current debates over the CIA’s use of torture and police killings of young black men in domestic terms. It is equally natural for them to disregard a preacher who threatens to burn the Quran, and see low-level incidents of anti-Islamic and anti-Semitic prejudice as being at the far margins of American society.

The Emirates Center and Gulf Think Tanks: The Next Twenty years

Wed, 10 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Presentation to the Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research (ECSSR), December 10, 2014, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

Let me begin by congratulating the Emirates Center and Dr. Jamal Sanad Al-Suwaidi for so many accomplishments over the last 20 years. It has been a privilege to watch its growth, its sustained quality, and its steadily increasing influence.

The Obama Administration: From Ending Two Wars to Engagement in Five – with the Risk of a Sixth

Wed, 03 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Presidents propose action, and then reality intervenes. This cycle holds special irony in the case of President Obama. A year ago, it looked like he might end two of the longest wars in U.S. history by the time he left office.

A Key Update: Afghan Forces on the Edge of Transition: Sharply Contradictory Data on Levels of Violence

sherry — Fri, 21 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The Burke Chair has recently released a four part survey of the Afghan Transition, titled, Afghan Forces on the Edge of Transition, which is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/publication/afghan-forces-edge-transition.

The four parts include:

Gulf Security, Stability, and Terrorism: Country Rankings

Thu, 13 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Much of the analysis of political instability, security problems, and terrorism in the Gulf and the Middle East focuses on the most serious immediate problem or key causes of the current rise in violence like religious extremism.

The Air War Against the Islamic State: The Need for An “Adequacy of Resources”

Wed, 29 Oct 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The United States has stated from the start that it is conducting an air campaign to degrade the Islamic State, not to change the military situation in Syria or to substitute for Iraqi political unity and the eventual use of Iraqi ground forces. This, however, raises several key questions:

The Imploding U.S Strategy in the Islamic State War?

Thu, 23 Oct 2014 00:00:00 -0400

It is too early to say that the U.S. strategy against the Islamic State is imploding, but it is scarcely too soon to question whether this is possible. In fact, it is far from clear that the original U.S. strategy ever planned to deal with the complications that have arisen since President Obama officially announced a portion of what that strategy really had to be.

Strategic Partnership in the Middle East: Respecting Our Arab Allies, Realism About Ourselves

Thu, 09 Oct 2014 00:00:00 -0400

It is easy to talk about a U.S. strategy based on strategic partnership and coalitions. It is far more difficult, however, to make such efforts work. This is particularly true when the U.S. fails to honestly address its own problems and mistakes, minimizes the costs and risks involved, and exaggerates criticism of its allies.

Losing the "Forgotten War" The U.S. Strategic Vacuum in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia

Wed, 01 Oct 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The US is now engaged in a major national debate over how to fight the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. That same debate over the future of the US role in Afghanistan is not taking place. The US has issued the usual reassuring rhetoric after the inauguration of President Ghani and the belated signing of bilateral security and status of forces agreements.

The Real Center of Gravity in the War Against the Islamic State

Tue, 30 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

Much of the debate over the air war and “boots on the ground” ignores the real center of gravity in the campaign against the Islamic State. There is no near-term possibility of any form of military victory unless the new Iraqi government can bring Iraq’s Arab Shi’ite, Arab Sunnis, and Kurds back together as some form of functioning state.

The Islamic State: The Case for Expanding the Air War

Tue, 23 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

No action the United States and President Obama takes can eliminate the fact that the campaign against the Islamic State involves major risks, many of which are beyond U.S. control:

Iraq, Syria, and the Islamic State: The "Boots on the Ground" Fallacy

Fri, 19 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

There are times the United States does not need an enemy in going to war. It poses enough of a threat to itself without any foreign help. The current debate over ground troops in Iraq and Syria threatens to be yet another case in point, compounding the American threats to America that have done so much damage in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and the earlier fighting in Iraq.

The Struggle for the Levant: Geopolitical Battles and the Quest for Stability

Thu, 18 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The United States and its allies compete with Iran in a steadily more unsettled and uncertain Levant. The political upheavals in the Middle East, economic and demographic pressures, sectarian struggles and extremism, ethnic and tribal conflicts and tensions all combine to produce complex patterns of competition.

The Campaign Against the Islamic State

Tue, 16 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

If there is any one lesson of the Afghan and Iraq Wars, it is that it is far easier to begin a conflict than to manage it well and achieve a meaningful form of victory.

Winning the Campaign Against the Islamic State: Key Strategic and Tactical Challenges

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The United States does not have good or quick options in dealing with the Islamic State, in part because it faces serious challenges in Iraq and Syria that cannot be separated from any efforts to weaken and destroy the Islamic State. This, however, is not a reason to stand and wait for better options that do not exist.

Transition in Afghanistan and Pakistan: Progress and Risks

Wed, 20 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The political risks and instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan are all too apparent. It is unclear that Afghanistan can create a stable central government, and it is unclear that Pakistan’s present central government can survive. At the same time, this is only part of the story.

Critical Problems in Security

Pakistan and Afghanistan: International Indicators of Progress

Wed, 20 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

It is unclear that the United States has any current assessments and strategy to deal with either these governance or economic issues.

The Afghan War and Transition: Updated Report on The Forces Shaping Transition in Afghanistan, 2014-2016

Tue, 12 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

There are several warnings that Transition in Afghanistan may fail, including the near paralysis of any effort to decide on the outcome of the Afghan presidential election, the killing of an American General, and yet another set of complaints from Afghan President Hamid Karzai on the US use of military force.

Iraq: The Right, but a High-Risk, Strategy

Mon, 11 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

President Obama seems to have adopted a strategy of making a long-term military commitment to Iraq. It is one based on air and missile power, advisers, and arms transfers, and conditional on Iraqis moving toward unity and helping themselves. He has also been right in giving the Kurds priority.

Iraq: A Time to Act

sherry — Wed, 06 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

On June 10, 2014, the Iraqi city of Mosul fell to what is now called the Islamic State (formerly the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham or ISIS). Since that time, the Islamic State has shown a surprising ability to mix religious extremism with effective strategy and military action.

Iraq: The Enemy of My Enemy is Not My Friend

Wed, 16 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The proverb that the “enemy of my enemy is my friend” is not an Arab proverb, it is a Sanskrit proverb that predates the Prophet Muhammad by roughly 1,000 years. It is also a proverb with a dismal history in practice. In case after case, the “enemy of my enemy” has actually proven to have been an enemy at the time or turned into one in the future.

The New “Great Game” in the Middle East: Looking Beyond the “Islamic State” and Iraq

Wed, 09 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The U.S. has good reason to try to prevent the creation of a violent, extremist Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, to reverse the gains of ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria)/ ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham), and to help move Iraq back towards a more stable and unified form of government.

Iraq in Crisis

jdunton — Fri, 30 May 2014 00:00:00 -0400

Iraq is a nation in crisis bordering on civil war in 2014. The country now faces growing violence, a steady rise in Sunni Islamist extremism, an increasingly authoritarian leader that favors Iraq’s Shiites, and growing ethnic tension between Arabs and Kurds.

The Afghan Civil Transition Crisis: Afghanistan's Status and the Warnings from Iraq's Failure

Sun, 18 May 2014 00:00:00 -0400

For more than a decade, the U.S. and its allies have been issuing claims about the progress being made in Afghanistan, and have tended to focus on success as measured in holding elections rather than the quality of governance and real world economic progress.

Shaping the ANSF to meet the Challenges of Transition

Thu, 17 Apr 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair at CSIS has developed a new analysis of the capabilities of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and the challenges they face, entitled Shaping the Uncertain Future of Afghan National Security Forces.

Improving the US-GCC Security Partnership: Planning for the Future

Mon, 07 Apr 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The US and its allies in the Southern Gulf face great challenges, but they also have great opportunities.

Time is Running Out in Afghanistan: The April 5th Election is Only the Prelude to Transition

Wed, 02 Apr 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The war in Afghanistan is not so much forgotten as in limbo. It may not be ‘Waiting for Godot,’ but it is obviously waiting for something. No leadership on the issue has emerged from the White House in months.

Lebanon at the Crossroad: Assessing the Impact of the Lebanon-Syria Insecurity Nexus

Wed, 26 Feb 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Lebanon has been a chronic US foreign policy challenge in the Levant since the Eisenhower Administration. However, given the country’s centrality to regional security politics and Iran’s support for the Shi’a militant group Hezbollah, the US cannot avoid looking at Lebanon as yet another arena of competition with Iran in the broader Levant.

The Reality Beyond Zero and 10,000: Choosing a Meaningful Option in Afghanistan

Tue, 04 Feb 2014 00:00:00 -0500

President Obama’s State of the Union address did not totally forget Afghanistan. It instead passed quickly over the war with a few seconds worth of rhetorical flourish:

Syria, Geneva II, and the Era of "Least Bad Options"

Wed, 22 Jan 2014 00:00:00 -0500

It does not take much by way of prophecy to predict that the Geneva II conference will not achieve any of its stated goals. Assad will not step down, the opposition will remain divided and continue to become more extreme, and outside states will be as divided in their goals as before the meeting.

The “Rise” of Al Qaeda in Iraq and the Threat from Prime Minister Maliki

sherry — Mon, 13 Jan 2014 00:00:00 -0500

No one can deny that al Qaeda is a violent extremist threat wherever it operates. It poses a threat in terms of transnational terrorism in the United States and Europe, and a far more direct threat to the people who live in every area it operates.

Shaping Iraq’s Security Forces

sherry — Fri, 13 Dec 2013 00:00:00 -0500

Two years after the withdrawal of all US military forces from Iraq, the Iraqi military is facing major challenges as it seeks to confront a resurgence of Islamist violence.

The Uncertain Strategic Case for the Zero Option in Afghanistan

sherry — Wed, 04 Dec 2013 00:00:00 -0500

It is far too easy to concentrate on the tensions with Afghan President Hamid Karzai over the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) and ignore the sheer lack of U.S. debate over the value of staying in Afghanistan. The key question is whether there is a legitimate case for something approaching a zero option and a full withdrawal of U.S. forces and aid.

The Best Deal with Iran That We Can Get

Sun, 24 Nov 2013 00:00:00 -0500

One needs to be very careful about the deal the P5+1 has reached with Iran. It is still not clear that the Supreme Leader will accept it or that Iran will put it into practice. It is a preliminary agreement that must be followed up by lasting Iranian compliance, acceptance by the U.S. and other nations, and must be maintained indefinitely into the future.

And Today’s Crisis is Iraq…The Need to Bargain and Lie in the Cause of Strategic Realism

Thu, 31 Oct 2013 00:00:00 -0400

The visit of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is scarcely something to celebrate. There will be the usual vacuous speeches and empty, dishonest rhetoric. Words like “democracy” and “partnership” will be misused with the usual lack of concern.

The Gulf and Middle East Strategic Partnerships: The Other Side of the Iran Negotiations

Tue, 22 Oct 2013 00:00:00 -0400

No one can deny the importance of trying to end Iran’s search for nuclear weapons. Even the most effective U.S. preventive strikes will leave a heritage of tension and confrontation in the Gulf that is likely to mean a continuing arms race and constant risk of some clash that will affect the flow of Gulf oil and the global economy.

The UN Chemical Weapons Report: One Third of the Story that Needs to Be Told

Fri, 20 Sep 2013 00:00:00 -0400

The first report of the United Nations Mission to Investigate Allegations of the Use of Chemical Weapons in the Syrian Arab Republic marks a courageous breakthrough on the part of the inspectors, but it also tells only part of a story that needs immediate support from U.S., British, and French intelligence.