Program Related Publication Feeds

Creeping Incrementalism: U.S. Forces and Strategy in Iraq and Syria from 2011 to 2016: An Update

pmeylan — Mon, 01 Feb 2016 00:00:00 -0500

Please note: This commentary has been updated to reflect a new briefing by a Department of Defense spokesman.

Iran, Missiles, and Nuclear Weapons

pmeylan — Wed, 09 Dec 2015 00:00:00 -0500

It is far from clear why Iran is now sending such strong signals about new developments in its missile program at this point in time. It seemed during much of the negotiations over the nuclear deal and the JCPOA that Iran might be deliberately avoiding tests and activities that might call attention to any obvious fact: there is no meaningful difference between a missile that can deliver conventional munitions and one that can deliver nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. As long as the missile booster can launch a heavy enough payload to get the desired range, any missile can carry a nuclear warhead.

Israel and the Palestinians: The Issues that the Obama-Netanyahu Meeting Failed to Address

pmeylan — Tue, 10 Nov 2015 00:00:00 -0500

There is no better way to pick a fight in Washington than to address the most sensitive issues affecting Israeli and Arab relations. Few other subjects begin to be as polarizing, or lead to the same degree of almost instant misinterpretation.

Creeping Incrementalism: U.S. Strategy in Iraq and Syria from 2011 to 2015

Mon, 09 Nov 2015 00:00:00 -0500

President Obama’s decision to allow up to 50 Special Forces to deploy in northern Syria has triggered an almost inevitable debate over crossing the threshold from train and assist into deploying combat personnel. So far that debate has taken three forms.

From King Stork to King Log: America’s Negative Message Overseas

Mon, 26 Oct 2015 00:00:00 -0400

There are so many different views of America overseas that any effort to generalize is dangerous, and at least partially misleading. It would be equally dangerous, however, to ignore the growing level of criticism of U.S.

Cooperation in Counterterrorism: Rhetoric vs. Reality

Tue, 20 Oct 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The rhetoric of cooperation in counterterrorism comes easily. The reality comes hard. Nations have very different views of who is a terrorist and who is a legitimate opponent to a given government.

Constructing a New Syria: Dealing with the Real Outcome of the “ISIS War”

Fri, 04 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0400

It is all too easy to focus on the fighting with ISIS in Iraq and Syria, or the growing humanitarian crisis in Syria, and ignore the full implications of the Syrian civil war and the challenge it poses for the future. No one can ignore the threat that ISIS poses to the region, or the immediate humanitarian threat to more than half of Syria’s population.

Chinese Strategy and Military Modernization: A Comparative Analysis

Tue, 01 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The Iran Nuclear Agreement: The Need for a Full U.S. Implementation Plan

sherry — Mon, 24 Aug 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The U.S. focus on whether the Congress can get 60 votes against the agreement, and then 67 votes to override a veto, presents the potential danger that the U.S. does not prepare properly for what happens if they can’t block the agreement and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) actually goes into force.

The Need for an Implementation Plan

21st Century Conflict: From “Revolution in Military Affairs” (RMA) to “Revolution in Civil-Military Affairs” (RCMA)

Thu, 02 Jul 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The U.S.

American Strategy and Critical Changes in the U.S. “Energy Import Dependence"

Mon, 04 May 2015 00:00:00 -0400

Changes in energy technology and in the way oil and gas reserves are estimated, have led to major changes in estimates of future of U.S. dependence on energy imports, how this affects U.S. strategy, and the nature of the U.S. strategic partnership with the Arab Gulf states.

The Arab Gulf and the U.S. Strategic Partnership in Ballistic Missile Defense

Mon, 04 May 2015 00:00:00 -0400

Iran presents a wide range of challenges to U.S. strategic interests that go far beyond nuclear proliferation. It is steadily improving the number, range, and accuracy of its conventional ballistic and cruise missiles, as a way to offset the U.S. and Arab Gulf advantage in modern air power and surface-to-air missile defenses.

A Public Relations Exercise without Meaningful Transparency

Fri, 01 May 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The United States has faced a major crisis in Syria since 2011, and has been contending with the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Iraq since the summer of 2014. It has been conducting operations in Iraq since March 2014, and formally announced a coalition and bombing campaign against ISIL in August of 2014.

America’s Failed Approach to Chaos Theory

Thu, 16 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The United States now faces a rapidly evolving world filled with new challenges at a time when real-world defense planning is focused on budget cuts, when U.S. “strategy” lacks plans and program budgets, and when talk of strategic partnership lacks clear and specific direction. Far too much U.S. strategic rhetoric is a hollow shell, while the real U.S.

America, Saudi Arabia, and the Strategic Importance of Yemen

Thu, 26 Mar 2015 00:00:00 -0400

Yemen is a growing reminder of just how important the strategic U.S. partnership with Saudi Arabia really is. It is one thing to talk about the war against ISIS, and quite another to realize that U.S. strategic interests require a broad level of stability in the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula and one that is dependent on Saudi Arabia as a key strategic partner.

Strategy, Grand Strategy, and the Emperor's New Clothes

Tue, 17 Mar 2015 00:00:00 -0400

Back in 1837, Hans Christian Anderson published a short story called the “Emperor’s New Clothes.” If there is anyone living who has not read it, two con men posing as tailors convince the emperor that their work is so superb that the fabric is only visible to those who are fit for his position, and anyone who cannot see it is clearly not suited for the throne.

The Real Strategic Goal in Iraq and Syria: How Do You Bring Lasting Stability?

Mon, 16 Mar 2015 00:00:00 -0400

One of the ironies of a steadily more partisan Washington is that its politicians and policymakers continue to call for “strategy” without looking beyond the military dimension. One way to lose a war is to lose sight of the objective, and there seems to be an open contest between the administration and the Congress to see who can do the best job of ignoring the objective.

The FY2016 Defense Budget and US Strategy: Key Trends and Data Points

Fri, 06 Mar 2015 00:00:00 -0500

Every year, the Department of Defense, OMB, the CBO, and GAO provide a wide range of materials analyzing the President’s proposed defense budget, and current trends in defense spending. These amount to thousands of pages and a wide variety of metrics, maps, charts, and other data.

Boots on the Ground: The Realities in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria

Fri, 13 Feb 2015 00:00:00 -0500

The Obama administration and its strongest opponents in Congress may not have all that much in common, but one thing they do share is the constant misuse of the word “strategy.” Strategy does not consist of stating a broad policy goal and empty rhetoric.

All Spin and No Substance: The Need for a Meaningful Obama Strategy

Wed, 21 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0500

It may be unfair to expect any meaningful discussion of strategy and America's security position in a State of the Union address. But, it is all too clear that President Obama failed to go beyond a few sentences of vacuous spin in dealing with the world outside the United States. The most he did was to claim that the United States has fewer troops at war.

The Strategic Cost of Torture, Racism, and Bigotry

Mon, 15 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

It is natural for Americans to see the current debates over the CIA’s use of torture and police killings of young black men in domestic terms. It is equally natural for them to disregard a preacher who threatens to burn the Quran, and see low-level incidents of anti-Islamic and anti-Semitic prejudice as being at the far margins of American society.

The Obama Administration: From Ending Two Wars to Engagement in Five – with the Risk of a Sixth

Wed, 03 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Presidents propose action, and then reality intervenes. This cycle holds special irony in the case of President Obama. A year ago, it looked like he might end two of the longest wars in U.S. history by the time he left office.

International Shifts and Their Security Impact on the Gulf: Quantifying Key Trends

Tue, 25 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0500

(In conjunction with the Third International Conference on Strategic Studies: Shifts and Changes in the World System and its Impacts on the Middle East; November 25-26, 2014, Doha, Qatar)

Assessing a Deal or Non-deal with Iran

Thu, 20 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0500

It now seems unlikely that the P5+1 countries of the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany can reach a comprehensive agreement with Iran by the end of November. A final agreement remains a possibility, but it seems far more likely that if an agreement is not reached, the negotiations will be extended rather than abandoned all together.

The Need for Better Civil-Military Planning

Thu, 13 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The United States is now more than a decade into wars attempting to bring security and stability to the Middle East. The results have not been good. The initial U.S. military victory in Iraq that overthrew Saddam Hussein was followed by eight years of irregular warfare, a pause, and now a new war against ISIS. The U.S.

The Islamic State War: No Clear U.S. Strategy

Mon, 10 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The campaign against the Islamic State and the broader elements of Operation Inherent Resolve confront the US with some of the most complex problems in defining a viable strategy in its recent military history.

The Air War Against the Islamic State: The Need for An “Adequacy of Resources”

Wed, 29 Oct 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The United States has stated from the start that it is conducting an air campaign to degrade the Islamic State, not to change the military situation in Syria or to substitute for Iraqi political unity and the eventual use of Iraqi ground forces. This, however, raises several key questions:

The Imploding U.S Strategy in the Islamic State War?

Thu, 23 Oct 2014 00:00:00 -0400

It is too early to say that the U.S. strategy against the Islamic State is imploding, but it is scarcely too soon to question whether this is possible. In fact, it is far from clear that the original U.S. strategy ever planned to deal with the complications that have arisen since President Obama officially announced a portion of what that strategy really had to be.

Losing the "Forgotten War" The U.S. Strategic Vacuum in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia

Wed, 01 Oct 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The US is now engaged in a major national debate over how to fight the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. That same debate over the future of the US role in Afghanistan is not taking place. The US has issued the usual reassuring rhetoric after the inauguration of President Ghani and the belated signing of bilateral security and status of forces agreements.

The Real Center of Gravity in the War Against the Islamic State

Tue, 30 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

Much of the debate over the air war and “boots on the ground” ignores the real center of gravity in the campaign against the Islamic State. There is no near-term possibility of any form of military victory unless the new Iraqi government can bring Iraq’s Arab Shi’ite, Arab Sunnis, and Kurds back together as some form of functioning state.

The Islamic State: The Case for Expanding the Air War

Tue, 23 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

No action the United States and President Obama takes can eliminate the fact that the campaign against the Islamic State involves major risks, many of which are beyond U.S. control:

Iraq, Syria, and the Islamic State: The "Boots on the Ground" Fallacy

Fri, 19 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

There are times the United States does not need an enemy in going to war. It poses enough of a threat to itself without any foreign help. The current debate over ground troops in Iraq and Syria threatens to be yet another case in point, compounding the American threats to America that have done so much damage in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and the earlier fighting in Iraq.

The Struggle for the Levant: Geopolitical Battles and the Quest for Stability

Thu, 18 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The United States and its allies compete with Iran in a steadily more unsettled and uncertain Levant. The political upheavals in the Middle East, economic and demographic pressures, sectarian struggles and extremism, ethnic and tribal conflicts and tensions all combine to produce complex patterns of competition.

The Campaign Against the Islamic State

Tue, 16 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

If there is any one lesson of the Afghan and Iraq Wars, it is that it is far easier to begin a conflict than to manage it well and achieve a meaningful form of victory.

The "Best Game in Town" - Five Key Risks of the President’s Strategy

sherry — Thu, 11 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

It may seem unusual to criticize a strategy you have both suggested and endorse, and it is important to stress from the outset that President Obama has almost certainly chosen a strategy that is the “best game in town” — if he fully implements it, gives it the necessary resources, and sustains it over time.

Key Factors Shaping the President’s Islamic State Speech

Tue, 09 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

There are several critical aspects of the U.S. strategy in Iraq that the President may not be able to address in full. They will, however, be critical to what the United States can and cannot do in the future.

The United States Already Has a Strategy

The Indian Ocean Region

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is one of the most areas of the world in human terms. It includes a wide variety of races, cultures, and religions. The level of political stability, the quality of governance, demographic pressures, ethnic and sectarian tensions, and the pace of economic growth create a different mix of opportunity and risk in each state.

Winning the Campaign Against the Islamic State: Key Strategic and Tactical Challenges

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The United States does not have good or quick options in dealing with the Islamic State, in part because it faces serious challenges in Iraq and Syria that cannot be separated from any efforts to weaken and destroy the Islamic State. This, however, is not a reason to stand and wait for better options that do not exist.

Transition in Afghanistan and Pakistan: Progress and Risks

Wed, 20 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The political risks and instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan are all too apparent. It is unclear that Afghanistan can create a stable central government, and it is unclear that Pakistan’s present central government can survive. At the same time, this is only part of the story.

Critical Problems in Security

Iraq: The Economic and Governance Sides of the Crisis

Mon, 18 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

There is no question that the Islamic State is the most immediate aspect of the Iraq crisis. It needs to be checked, its gains need to be reversed, and it needs to be driven out of Iraq if possible. But – and it is a critical but – Iraq requires far more.

The Afghan War and Transition: Updated Report on The Forces Shaping Transition in Afghanistan, 2014-2016

Tue, 12 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

There are several warnings that Transition in Afghanistan may fail, including the near paralysis of any effort to decide on the outcome of the Afghan presidential election, the killing of an American General, and yet another set of complaints from Afghan President Hamid Karzai on the US use of military force.

Iraq: The Right, but a High-Risk, Strategy

Mon, 11 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

President Obama seems to have adopted a strategy of making a long-term military commitment to Iraq. It is one based on air and missile power, advisers, and arms transfers, and conditional on Iraqis moving toward unity and helping themselves. He has also been right in giving the Kurds priority.

Iraq: A Time to Act

sherry — Wed, 06 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

On June 10, 2014, the Iraqi city of Mosul fell to what is now called the Islamic State (formerly the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham or ISIS). Since that time, the Islamic State has shown a surprising ability to mix religious extremism with effective strategy and military action.

The Real Revolution in Military Affairs

sherry — Tue, 05 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

It doesn’t seem all that long since the United States was considering how advancements in military technology would allow it to use advances in long-range precision weapons, intelligence sensors, and command and control capabilities to dominate conventional wars.

The FY2015 Defense Budget and the QDR: Key Trends and Data Points

Wed, 23 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400

This year’s defense budget submission and QDR present a complex mix of changes in strategy, force levels, and defense spending plans. They also reveal a growing gap between the resources the US is likely to commit to military spending and its strategy.

The Downing of the Malaysian Airliner: Avoid Rushing to Judgment

Fri, 18 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The exact cause of the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 remains uncertain, but seems most likely to be the result of a firing of either the SA-11 (Gadfly 1979) or SA-17 “Buk Mk. 2” missile (Grizzly 2007). The SA-11 and SA-17 launch vehicles and missiles (four per vehicle) look very similar. The 17 has upgraded missiles but it is hard to see the difference.

Iraq: The Enemy of My Enemy is Not My Friend

Wed, 16 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The proverb that the “enemy of my enemy is my friend” is not an Arab proverb, it is a Sanskrit proverb that predates the Prophet Muhammad by roughly 1,000 years. It is also a proverb with a dismal history in practice. In case after case, the “enemy of my enemy” has actually proven to have been an enemy at the time or turned into one in the future.

Afghanistan and the Growing Risks in Transition

Mon, 14 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400

It has become all too apparent that the Afghan election risks creating new political divisions and an even weaker level of leadership and governance in Afghanistan. The election, however, is only part of the story.

The New “Great Game” in the Middle East: Looking Beyond the “Islamic State” and Iraq

Wed, 09 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The U.S. has good reason to try to prevent the creation of a violent, extremist Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, to reverse the gains of ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria)/ ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham), and to help move Iraq back towards a more stable and unified form of government.

The Uncertain Next Steps in Iraq

Fri, 20 Jun 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The President has set the stage. The question is what acts will follow. The United States has signaled as clearly as it can that a corrupt, authoritarian, power hungry, sectarian thug like Maliki should go. It cannot, however, make that happen or undo the damage that Maliki has done to the nation's unity, quality of governance, economy, and security forces since the 2010 election.