Burning Brave

Gold Gloves in '07

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Wed, 03 Oct 2007 06:01:00 +0000

Just a little blurb about defense on a slow braves news day. Despite only fielding 7 eligible positions (LF was a platoon) it looks like the Braves have 5 players who have a chance at winning. I'm not sure how it would work for Tex, but the other 4 have a good shot. Take a look.

Chipper Jones: 9 errors, .971 F%, and .797 ZR in 1081.2 Innings
Edgar Renteria: 11 errors, .977 F%, and .800 ZR in 1019.1 Innings
Andruw Jones: 2 Errors, .995 F%, and .863 ZR in 1346.0 Innings
Jeff Francoeur: 5 Errors, .986 F%, and .875 ZR in 1441.2 Innings

Chipper ranks 1st in Errors, 3rd by .002% in F%, and 5th in ZR.
Edgar ranks 2nd in Errors, 8th in F%, and 10th in ZR.
Andruw ranks 1st in Errors, 2nd in F%, 7th in ZR.
Frenchy ranks 6th in Errors, 4th in F%, 7th in ZR.

In all honesty, Chipper has the best shot at winning this year from this snapshot. Rowand seems to have CF locked up, Vizquel has SS, and Corey Hart has RF. Btw, it looks like LaRoche is going to win the award at 1st.

It's Official

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Wed, 03 Oct 2007 05:55:00 +0000

AJ is not coming back next year. Honestly, i'm actually happy about this from a team perspective despite my sorrow to see such a good person leave. Honestly, on the field Andruw had a knack of being a rally killer. His entire career he seemed to come up when we needed a hit and failed to produce. Despite the same last name, he was the antithesis of Chipper.

At this point I invite the opening of the flood gates on his replacement. Is Tori Hunter going to be doing the Tomahawk chop in 6 months or will we see Frenchy firing his cannon from center? One thing is for sure, AJ is gone, Gold Gloves be dammed.

Soriano at the End

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Wed, 03 Oct 2007 04:24:00 +0000

For those of you doubting Soriano's abilities to close games here's a line you should keep in mind. In close and late situations hitters had a .163/.207/.294 line. For reference, these are the lines a few other closers posted in the same situation:

Octavio Dotel: .275/.363/.435 (Former Closer W/ KC)
Bob Wickman: .267/.336/.435 (Former Braves Closer)
Mariano Rivera: .267/.330/.416 (HOF AL Closer)
J.J. Putz: .149/.197/.248 (AL Saves Runner Up)
Trevor Hoffman: .233/.279/.370 (HOF NL Closer)
Jose Valverde: .202/.294/.370 (NL Saves Leader)

Soriano's better than all but Putz. I have no complaints for $2.5m.

Game Over.

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Fri, 28 Sep 2007 01:42:00 +0000

After tonight's loss the Braves are done. It's bad news but it allows fans to start speculating about next year. Oh, and screw you TBS. Just cuz you dropped the Braves for next year I'm dropping you from my Tivo for the playoffs. I'll get my games from MLB.com.

More numbers

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 15:19:00 +0000

Despite the excitement of still being in the hunt for October come September 26th i'm going to shift focus to next year. The question now is what is going to happen in CF and what is going to happen in the rotation? First, let's look at the contracts that are going to stick around.

SP) Mike Hampton: $15m
3b) Chipper Jones: $15m
1B) Mark Teixeira: ~$13m
SP) John Smoltz: $14m
SP) Tim Hudson: $13m
RP) Mike Gonzolez: ~$4.5m
RP) Rafael Soriano: ~$2.5m
RP) Oscar Villarreal: ~$1.5m
C) Brian McCann: $.8m
RF) Jeff Francoeur: ~$.5m
RP) Tyler Yates: ~$.5m
RP) Lance Cromier: ~$.5m
RP) Buddy Carlyle: ~$.5m
SP) Chuck James: ~$.5m
LF) Matt Diaz: ~$.5m
SS) Younel Escobar: ~$.35m
2B) Kelly Johnson: ~$.35m
CF) Willy Harris: ~$.35m
RP) Peter Moylan: ~$.35m
RP) Royce Ring: ~$.35m
RP) Jose Ascanio: ~$.35m
RP) Many Acosta: ~$.35m
C) Corky Miller: ~$.35m

Scott Thorman: ?
Chad Paranto: ?
Ron Mahay: ?
Chris Woodward: ?
Edgar Renteria: $7m
Andruw Jones: ?
Octavio Dotel: ?

That totals just over $85m w/o bench players and a starter.

You may notice that I have 10 relievers listed. 3 of which will not make the opening day roster. I predict that Lance and Buddy won't make it and Gonzo is out for 1/2 the year. But you never know with baseball. Either way, none of the pitchers listed as being sent down make much so it won't affect totals significantly.

You also can see I also have 6 players listed separately from the rest. These are the 7 I see taking a walk. With the exception of Mahay, all come with baggage (contract, inability to play baseball). Mahay is a great pitcher but he might be too expensive to keep in his role as space filler.

Now let's look at what's missing. The biggest hole is in the rotation of course. Personally I see Glavine coming back at $10m (if the Mets decline his $13m option as they likely will do). Plugging him into the #3 hole and adding his $10m we have a payroll of just north of $95m which is about where we would expect Liberty to set it.

However, I doubt JS will be standing pat with Hampton being counted on. I see Thorman going to another club for a down on his luck starter. I have a feeling Cliff Lee might be that guy. His $15m contract extension looked great at the time, but since then his ERA is well over 6 and he has been limited to a relief role. The boy is a classic change of scenery guy. But Thorman won't be enough to net him. I don't know what beyond that will be called for but this is a deal that can get done, and before you even thing Rent's name i want to point out that the Indians have a SS and would rather shed payroll than take it on. Btw, Lee is making $3.75m next year. If Hampton goes down again that's quite a bit less than the insurance will pay out.

In terms of Renteria I see him getting moved. With his contention for the batting title and his solid performance it's almost a certainty that some team will be drooling over him. The return is based on what other teams have to give but anything from a rising star in center to some pitching prospects is not out of the question.

Add in bench players and we're looking at around $100m and the devision title.

Good news!

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Tue, 25 Sep 2007 16:14:00 +0000

The Pads lost yesterday dropping them into a tie for the wild card with the Phils. They now need to loose about 4 more games for the bravos to overtake them! Go Braves!

A wild card?

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Mon, 24 Sep 2007 17:09:00 +0000

This is going to be an exciting week. Take a look.

The braves are currently 3.5 behind the Pads for the wild card with the Phils and the Rox between them.

The braves face the Phils for 3 with favorable pitching match ups all 3 days. If we sweep the Phils will be 1 game behind us.

The Pads face the Giants w/o their spark plug, Bradley, who is likely done for the regular season. We need the pads to drop 5/7 between the Giants and the Brewers.

The Rockies face the Dodgers and the D-Backs. That is w/o doubt the worst sched for the last week. Even worse, the Dodgers series is away from Coors.

It's not impossible but it's never happened before. GO BRAVES!

A Game of Numbers

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Fri, 21 Sep 2007 13:18:00 +0000

Let's play:

If you do the math, the only way the braves get into the post season is if at least 2 teams from either the east or the west play .500 ball and the braves don't loose again.

NL East,
Only 4.5 back but 3 back of the Phils. who are on fire.

NL West,
The Rox and the Pads are up on us with the rox having 1 game and the Pads having 5.5. Have i mentioned the braves have the second longest winning streak in baseball? Second only to the Pads and tied with the Rox.

The race for the batting title is among 3 people, 2 Braves and a Rockie. For the moment CJ is on top and Rent is 3rd but over the last several days the mix has shuffled over and over. All i have to say on the matter is, if a brave doesn't win and the team misses the playoffs here will be hell to pay.

See

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Thu, 13 Sep 2007 15:11:00 +0000

It's just like I said, the Braves can't prove it wasn't a fluke. Well, the good news is that the braves played fairly well in all three games. Both the losses came by one run affairs so it's not as horrible as the last time these two teams matched up. If you're wondering, after the last 2 one-run losses the braves now stand at 6-18 in one run games away from the Ted. Ouch. If they won 1/2 those 24 games the bravos would be in second and nipping on the heals of the Mets. Opportunities lost.

La La LA!

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 20:29:00 +0000

Recently i'm feeling like a 3year old when it comes to the Braves. I know they're all but done for, but I still hope for the miracle. The problem is, everyone is proclaiming their downfall. Every time i hear it I imagine myself sticking my fingers in my ears and yelling "LaLaLA I'm not Listening!" And then the Braves go and do something stupid like pound the mets to a pulp with our friend Buddy pitching. What the hell is wrong with this team? Can't they see that all this hope is crushing us? Can't they understand that '08 is where our emotions should be focused, not today. You can't just go out and beat up on the best team in the national league and then come into work the next day and say "Woops, we're tired from yesterday." The Braves' job now is to prove that they're not one hit wonders, if only to themselves. But we all know the truth, the Braves are done, just don't yell it at me. Speak it softly, whisper it among friends when you can be sure no one is listening. It's to early to wake this giant.

National Joke

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Sun, 09 Sep 2007 14:47:00 +0000

I've never seen a team so ready to give up. It's scary, but good news for the Braves. That big comeback against the Phils has really given the team a shot in the arm.

Anyway, here are a few things that make me hopeful for '08.

-Andrew's struggles. Yes the fact that our star center fielder is hitting just north of the mendoza line give me hope. As I've said before Andrew's complete inability to hit, his bone jarring swing, and his less than desirable unwillingness to adapt to the situation at the plate make him kriptonite to a rally. And that makes his price tag lower. Take a look at what Torri Hunter is asking for. $70m for 4 years. Andrew won't make that, but he might pull off another deal like his last.

-Diaz for team MVP. When was the last time you saw a platoon player mean as much to a team as Diaz? He's still hitting close to .350 with over 300 ABs. The unfortunate thing is that due to his lack of playing time and pinch hitting duties his peripherals are low. (Hey you try and hit coming off the bench).

-Escobar is my hero. The boy has a talent for being in the right place at the right time, and producing. Rent is a great player, but i'd take similar production and defense for 1/27th his salary. Add in the fact that the $9m we're playing him is only part of his total contract and you have an even bigger bargain.

-Get out your brooms. The braves look for the sweep today but face their nemesis Jason Bergman. He owns the Braves. An ERA of 1.00 with 22ks in 3 starts and 18 innings this year. Ouch. Looking at his overall numbers i wouldn't mind seeing him in a Braves uni next year, if just to not have to face him again...

Projecting '08 Roster (Part 1)

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Fri, 07 Sep 2007 20:11:00 +0000

I updated the roster on the left to reflect the September 1 call ups. That got me thinking about 2008. In part 1 of this three part series I take a look at '08 on the field.

The biggest question about '08 is what will Andrew do? Will he sign a 1year and stay with the Braves and cash in after the season? Will he take the money and run? I think it comes down to how he feels. He's been dealing with a lot of nagging injuries and that's kept him down this year. If he thinks it's going to get better, why not stick around with the only club he's known and push for the pennant in '08? If he knows the end is nearing he should try and milk the market for everything he can. I predict the former, AJ will reup with the Bravos @ $10m.

The next biggest question is where does Escobar play if Rent sticks around? He's to valuable to ride the bench and too cheap to trade off. That means Rent needs to move, hopefully for a pitcher. Bottom line, Rent gone, Escobar here.

The final question is what happens in left? What am I saying? We know who's won the spot. Diaz in Left, Willy OF #4.

This makes our lineup:

1) Escobar/SS
2) KJ (8th is not where I'd put him)/2b
3) Chipper/3b
4) Boomstick (Tex)/1b
5) Frenchy/RF
6) Diaz/LF
7) AJ/CF
8) Heap (McCann)/C

What should scare the mets is that the #8 hitter already has 84 RBIs in '07. BTW, 5 braves are on pace to drive in over 100.

There you have it. 1-8 and they look great. Next up, The rotation.

Braves Pitching

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Fri, 07 Sep 2007 16:47:00 +0000

We all know the line about Chuck James being a decent #3 in the rotation and Hampton coming back and being slotted into #4 next season if the braves don't get another starter. It's bull. JS is sweating over that thought. I'm fairly sure he'd quit if he couldn't fix the rotation over the winter. With this in mind there are a few names that might save his sanity.

1) John Garland- This trade got shot down before but might be revisited. Rent and a starting prospect might be enough to being him in. However, i'm not sure if 11 hits in 6 innings against the Pirates inspires much confidence.

2) Josh Towers- The Jays seem to be eager to move him but his flyball tendencies and a .295 opponents average keeps his value down. He'll be the wrong side of 30 on '08 but he'll be pulling in only a few mill in arb. I'd put him as a #4 or 5. Not a #3.

3) Tom Glavine- Yes old Tommy boy is available again (he has a $9m player option). His option is decent but i'm sure he can get more on the open market. He has just north of a 4.00 ERA and a respectable whip. The only down side? Greg doesn't seem to want to return. Oh, and he'll cost over $10m (Garland gets $12m in '08 btw).

4) Joel Pineiro- The guy is an innings eater and a lock for stying in the NL. The AL has his number. The good news is that he'll come cheap. I don;t see him being a #3, but back of the rotation could do worse.

5) Dontrelle Willis- This is the perfect #3 for the Braves. D-Train has tons of raw talent but needs a better defense behind him and some vets to mentor him. The best news is that he could earn $7m in arbitration meaning the Marlins might want to move him. Now we just have to outbid the Mets...

What ever happens we know it'll be major. JS is playing for keeps in '08, just look @ the Tex trade. Let the rumors start!

Off Day

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Thu, 06 Sep 2007 21:32:00 +0000

Gotta love an off day in September, especially when the team you're facing the next series is the Nats. Coming off such a big win as yesterday, a win in this series would vault the braves back to respectability. I hope. Take a look at every one else's next matchup.

Houston @ NY, The mets split their only other series with the 'Stros @ Houston. A fun number to throw out is that the Astros outscored the mets 17-14 in the series.

Fish @ Philly, The Phills dropped 2 of 3 to the lowly fish before coming to Atlanta. Oh, and the Fish hit Philly very well. They're slugging .512 against the Phills .456 in meetings this year. BTW: 5 Fish are hitting over .330 and slugging over .610 against them this year. One of which is pitching on Sunday.

The Braves are 7-5 against the Nats including a sweep last time out. The Bravos have a 60-31 run differential and Chipper has an OBPS of 1.149 against them. Ouch.

If we win the last 5 series we have an outside shot at the wildcard. Not much hope. Good news is we can at least finish second this year.

Matt Diaz is my Hero

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Thu, 06 Sep 2007 00:57:00 +0000

If you missed today's 9th inning you should go ahead and smack your head against the wall. I'll wait... done? No? Come on man, I don't have all day. Good. Now that you've punished yourself here's what happened. Braves down 2 Bret Myers on the mound. After 2 quick outs Frenchy and Prado hit infield singles. Escobar then walks on 4 pitches. Bases loaded, Diaz at the plate. Honestly, who would you rather have up there right now? Of course Diaz smacks a double off the glove of Roberson. Escobar was in motion at first on the crack of the bat and chugged all the way around form first to beat the throw. Braves 9, Phills 8. If you wanted a spark plug game this was it.

It Lives!

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Thu, 06 Sep 2007 00:54:00 +0000

Despite being forced to build a new computer from scratch (all i saved was a fan from the old computer) and finding an undying hatred for Comcast and their slow frigging service I am back online. I know i've missed almost a month of prime braves news, but i'm picking up today and not giving up until this comp dies.

Dead computer

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Thu, 09 Aug 2007 11:15:00 +0000

Despite some amazing news for the Braves my week has been horrible. First gradschool classes have just resumed, eating much of my free time, and second my main computer committed suicide taking with it 2 weeks worth of work. Joy. So let me catch up a bit.

First off, Braves starters have been very good lately. Behind Smoltz and Hudson, James and Buddy have been all you can ask for. The only knock on the pair is James' inability to pitch over 100 pitches. He seems to hit a wall at 92 pitches. Looking at his delivery it's understandable that he gets tired, you try throwing in the 90's with only your arm. However, 90 pitches a 3rd starter does not make.

Second, the pen has been overused. Add together too many extra inning games with too many short outings by starters and you get a recipe for disaster. Add to that the struggles of Soriano, the inconsistencies of Dotel, and the omnipresent threat of Wickman's forthcoming meltdown and you get one pen that opponents love to face. But hey, Bobby has a formula for who pitches when, past cruddy performance be dammed.

Third, it's no surprise that the Braves are in more late inning games since acquiring Tex. Think about it this way. If you trot out Franco every day (who was the best hitting 1B we had before Tex) you essentially have 2 spots in the order not producing (including the pitcher's spot) and thus you loose about 25% of your production opposed to about 12%. That extra 1/2 to one run has been the difference for the braves all year. There have been a lot of one run losses that now turn into tie games.

Fourth, has anyone seen who shot Andruw in the foot? oh, wait, it's self inflicted. Remember back in April and May when he couldn't get a hit to ave his life? 7th in the order isn't quite right when the guy hitting 8th is batting over .300. I'm just saying.

Jo-Jo sent down

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Fri, 03 Aug 2007 11:52:00 +0000

The Braves optioned him to AAA Richmond and called up Lance Cormier. Because the entire pen was used last night he will be available out of the pen tonight if needed but is scheduled to start in Jo-Jo's spot on Tuesday.

5 hours of insanity!

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Fri, 03 Aug 2007 04:36:00 +0000

Rather than write a long winded post i'm just going to bullet point this.

-Boomstick hits another dinger

-Rent goes down with a twisted ankle

-Chipper plays SS

-Harris plays 3B and has 3 good plays... and bangs into the wall twice

-Diaz connects for the rare homer

-Andruw hurts himself on a swing

-Chipper stings his hand on a ground out

-Soriano gives up the lead and a slam

-Frenchy gets hit by a pitch similar to the one that took out Utley

-EVERY pitcher and position player was used except Smoltz, Hudson, and Buddy

-The braves have now scored 11 or more runs in 4 straight

-21 hits tonight, but three errors. (McCann, Harris, and Rent)

-Wickman makes a great play on a little pop behind the mound, and sets of car allarms arround the block when he falls over afterward

-McCann caught all 14 innings. I'll bet Corky will start Friday.

-Jo-Jo looked awful and is quickly earning himself a demotion. Oscar or Moylan will likely take his spot in the rotation.

-Mahay went 3 innings giving up only 1 earned run.

-Friday's lineup MUST look like this:

1) Escobar (SS)
2) KJ (2B)
3) Diaz (LF)
4) Boomstick (1B)
5) AJ (CF)
6) Frency (RF)
7) Woodward (3B)
8) Corky (C)
9) Smoltz (P)

If AJ or Frenchy is hurt badly we're screwed because it looks like Harris, Rent and Chipper can't play much.

Who is this Dotel person anyway?

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Thu, 02 Aug 2007 14:29:00 +0000

Octavio Dotel is a great pitcher. He holds a 1.2 K/IP and a 2.7 W/K ratio for his career. That's up there with some of the better closers of our era. By comparison, the other closer moved at the deadline, Eric Gagne, has a 1.1 K/IP and a 3.4 W/K. The obvious difference is in his control but it doesn't equate to much. Gagne has a 1.11 WHIP and Dotel has a 1.24 for their carers. I'd take that for 1/2 the price (with incentives it's less than 1/3). NB: Dotel also has a rider in his contract for performance bonuses. From Cot's:

$0.2M each for 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 GF
$0.25M for 65 GF

In fact Dotel might be a Brave for a while. Apparently, he's dreamed of being a brave for years.

"I've always wanted to play for [the Braves]. I like all the good players they have here and all their years of winning."

If that isn't a plea for an extension I don't know what is. We all know that Wickman is walking after this year (if not before) and that leaves the closer spot open. There's a chance the Braves will pickup his option ($5.5 mil) but i'd bet they'd try to sign him for longer at less. $3-4m/year for 2-3 years sounds right. However, in today's market it's likely it'll take $6-7m/year if he decides to become a FA. He's still fairly young (33) and has been reasonably effective. I think it'll get done and we can count on 1/2 the pen being closer material. Gonzo, Soriano, and Dotel is even scarier than what we had going into this year...

Boomstick's Wife

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Thu, 02 Aug 2007 04:03:00 +0000

We can officially add her to the "hot baseball player wives" list. More to come as I find more pictures...

Game Notes

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Thu, 02 Aug 2007 03:44:00 +0000

Tonight was a big night for the Bravos. Not only did they win they posted their third straight game of 12+runs. That's a big offensive outburst from a team that looked like it has resigned itself to missing the playoffs a few games back. Seriously, who gets swept by the Reds?

You might also note that Boomstick had a 3run HR and a walk for an RBI. He also struck out twice. Reminds me of another 1B I know... JK. The man is fierce and deserves his new nickname.

The two new arms also got some work with Mahay looking good, but giving up a walk, and Dotel looking sharp. In fact Dotel needed only 7 pitches to get a strike out, ground out, and line out.

And the bad news. Buddy went down during his warm up in the sixth. DOB reports a hyper extended elbow. Now, depending on his makeup this might be nothing more than a twinge. I personally do this 2-3 time a week playing tennis and have had no problems... yet. What i do know is that it feels funky when it happens (like hitting your funny bone) but subsides quickly. The only lingering result is usually a little tenderness that goes away in a few days. However, buddy is scheduled to start on Sunday. I'm not sure if he'll make that. I'd expect Villarreal to make the spot start (no one has options that can get us a starter right now) if Buddy can't go.

Also of note, I'll be at Sunday's game in the $25 "All You Can Eat" seats. I hope to have good pics and even a TBS appearance to show for it (not to mention all the hotdogs I can eat).

Beltran and the Braves

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Wed, 01 Aug 2007 02:17:00 +0000

So here's a recap of the last few days in the NL east.

Phillies- Despite passing the Braves in the standings, they don't look to good right now. With Utley out for at least 3 weeks and now Victorino and Bourn out for 2 the lineup is looking a little thin behind Howard.

Mets- Carlos Beltran and Paul Lo Duca are both out with leg issues and the former is now on the DL. The plan is to play the rambunctious Lastings Milledge in center and get Lo Duca healthy quick.

Braves- Send of no player currently contributing for no less than 3 impact players. 1B is now as good if not better than anyone in the NL East (With no protection Howard is going to have... fun), the missing lefty is here and the braves have one of the best setup men available.

Survey says... Braves have a chance of winning the strong NL East. The good news beyond that is that the Braves will likely play either the Brewers, Cubs, Diamondbacks, or Padres in the first round. Honestly, none of them scare me.

Oh, and if you're wondering our lineup looks like this:

1) Harris/Escobar
2) Rent
3) CJ
4) Tex
5) AJ
6) Heap
7) Frenchy
8) Johnson/Diaz
9) Pitcher

Honestly? That's the best lineup in baseball. For god's sake our #8 hitters would be 5 or 6 on most teams.

This does not bode well for the braves...

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Tue, 31 Jul 2007 20:35:00 +0000

Texas offered Tex $140 mil for 8 years at an average of $18 mill from 2009 on. Yikes. He obviously turned it down.

News and Notes

noreply@blogger.com (Mike) — Tue, 31 Jul 2007 18:51:00 +0000

-Tex trade is done, and does not include Davies.

-Dotel trade can happen with Davies going to KC.

-Ring is a Brave via a trade with San Diego.

-Wickman is now expendable for the right price. DOB speculates that this might be done through waivers. Now, with relief pitching the way it is I doubt Wickman will make it through waivers but his contract is fairly big (almost as big as him). Perhaps if he struggles down the stretch...

-Jo-Jo has been offered for Arroyo but the price is likely more. Thorman, Yates, Paronto, Ladezma, and other prospects being discussed.