Market Review

This week the market continued its slow but uphill advance into the clouds to either all-time highs (S&P 500 and DJIA), and/or yearly highs (NASDAQ Composite Index). This continued market strength is amazing in light of the fact that over the past six months it has not had even a 5% correction.  This is rare.

For fourth consecutive week, all the major averages showed gains.  Again, the NASDAQ Composite had strong performance up with a solid 1.82 % advance closing the week at 3498.97, followed by the S&P 500 up the most at 2.07% closing at 1667.47, and the blue chip DJIA up the least at 1.56% closing at 15354.40 solidly above the 15000 reached in the past two weeks.  This week the number of NYSE stocks making 52-week highs continued to be high at 914 with 74 new 52-week lows.  This is the next best showing of the year with the prior week’s the best one so far.  Interestingly, the percentage of NYSE new 52 week highs compared to the total number of stocks is at 28%.  A weekly decline from a level of 25% or above to below 25% usually signals a market at or nearing a top. (This was Indicator #3 in the original Dashboard of eight indicators).

Interestingly, in the past few weeks new sector leadership has emerged as the defensive sectors that were leading the market higher for 2013 – healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities – have lost momentum.  Now industrials, energy, and financial are the leaders.  These are growth stocks that are more speculative and riskier than the defensive issues.  Moreover, margin debt has reached near all-time highs which indicate investors are taking more risk in an attempt to cash in on the market’s momentum.  This activity usually ends badly, as evidenced by similar margin growth during 2007 before the market began its descent.

Indicator Review – No changes this week

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).  

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator remains on itsApril 25^th buy signal. (Refer to first chart).  

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest May 15^th  bullish reading of 38.5 % was down a bit from the May 8^th bullish reading of 40.8%. Investors are still bullish as the market continues to rise. This indicator remains on its BUY signal as of April 18^th the release date of the survey.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD.  The indicator issued a BUY signal as of April 30^th close, as there was a positive MACD crossover confirming the Index which crossed over its 5 day-ema the prior Thursday. (Refer to second chart).

Dashboard on “4” BUY signal

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

Dashboard-V2-May 17, 2013

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:

 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dark Liquidity

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 7.37%  which is still well below that of the three major indexes, but improving recently.  Year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 15.88%, S&P 500 is up 16.92%, and the DJIA is up 17.17%.

Top 5 ETFs

The Top 5 ETFs were up a solid 5.97 % since the recent buy signal compared to the market averages up 5.39 %.  The table with the data is provided in this link:

Top 5 ETF Tracking May 17, 2013

Note that SMH and XLY are close to rank 10 so be aware of any daily drop below rank 10 for a SELL signal on these ETFs.  Any replacement will come from the top ranked ETFs not yet owned.

Conclusion – Be Careful

The NASDAQ Composite which has now retaken its leadership role has blasted through the 3000 resistance level and continues to advance.  The DJIA had closed solidly above the 15000 level, but has taken a back seat to the other two major averages during the past three weeks.  We could be at a blow-off top or the advance could continue for a while. 

         Stop LIMIT Orders on Bond ETFs

For those investors that own bond ETFs as a core position in their accounts, I suggest that a stop LIMIT order of 3% or less below the current price be put in place to protect principal, in case interest rates rise.  If you need more information on stop orders then refer to www.investopedia.com and review the definitions of stop loss order and stop limit orders.

Market Review

This week the market continued to advance to either all-time highs (S&P 500 and DJIA), and/or yearly highs (NASDAQ Composite Index), although the percentage increase was more subdued from the prior week’s.  This Teflon market keeps moving ahead without a worry and with investor and professional bullish sentiment at high levels.  Usually this type of scenario turns out to be near a market top.

For the third consecutive week, all the major averages showed gains.  Again, the NASDAQ Composite led the way up with a solid 1.72 % advance closing the week at 3436.58, followed by the S&P 500 up 1.19% closing at 1633.70, and the blue chip DJIA up the least at 0.97% closing at 15118.49 after exceeding 15000 for the first time ever.  This week the number of NYSE stocks making 52-week highs soared to 925 with only 40 new 52-week lows.  This is the best showing of the year.

Interestingly, in the past few weeks new sector leadership has emerged as the defensive sectors that were leading the market higher for 2013 – healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities – have lost momentum.  Now technology, energy, and basic materials are the leaders.  These are growth stocks that are more speculative and riskier than the defensive issues.  Moreover, margin debt has reached all-time highs which indicates investors are taking more risk in an attempt to cash in on the market’s momentum.  This activity usually ends badly, as evidenced by similar margin growth in 2007.

Indicator Review – No Changes

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).  

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator remains on itsApril 25^th buy signal. (Refer to first chart).  

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest May 8bullish reading of 40.8% was up a big 9.8 percentage points from the May 1st bullish reading of 31.0%. Investors are becoming much more bullish as the market rises. This indicator remains on its BUY signal as of April 18^th the release date of the survey.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD.  The indicator issued a BUY signal as of April 30^th close, as there was a positive MACD crossover confirming the Index which crossed over its 5 day-ema the prior Thursday. (Refer to second chart).

Dashboard on “4” BUY signal

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

Dashboard-V2-May 10, 2013

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:

 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dark Liquidity

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 5.96%  (up from 3.48% in prior week) which is still well below that of the three major indexes, but improving recently.  Year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 13.81%, the S&P 500 is up 14.55%, and the DJIA is up 15.37%.

Top 5 ETFs

The Top 5 ETFs were up a solid 4.80 % since the recent buy signal compared to the market averages up 3.51 %.  The table with the data is provided in this link:

Top 5 ETF Tracking May 10, 2013

Note that RWX is ranked 11^th as of the Friday close, was old on Monday’s open, and replaced with IYT.

Conclusion – Be Careful

The NASDAQ Composite which has now retaken its leadership role has blasted through the 3000 resistance level and continues to advance.  The DJIA had closed above the 15000 level, but has taken a back seat to the other two major averages during the past two weeks.  We could be at a blow-off top or the advance could continue for awhile.  I remain 100% in cash.

         Stop LIMIT Orders (repeated for last few weeks)

For those investors that are long the market tight stop LIMIT orders, such as 3% are suggested to protect principal. 

Remember that if the market suddenly drops, as it did this week due to false twitter news, the stop LIMIT order will only be hit if the market hits the limit price on the way down.  If the price suddenly falls 4% for example, then your 3% stop limit will not be executed.  However, if the stock then reverses up and hits your stop LIMIT price your position will be sold out.  If you decided to use regular stops without a limit price, then you would have been sold out at 4% below the market in the example above.  If you need more information on stop orders then refer to www.investopedia.com and review the definitions of stop loss order and stop limit orders.

This week after a slow start Monday through Wednesday, the market soared on Thursday and Friday closing at either all-time highs (S&P 500 and DJIA), and/or yearly highs (NASDAQ Composite Index).  Favorable domestic economic news spurred the rally.  On April 30, Indicator #8 issued a BUY signal as the MACD confirmed the Index moving average crossover.  Therefore, the Dashboard is on a MAXIMUM “4” BUY signal which reinforces the April 25th “3″ BUY signal.

For the week, all the major averages showed gains.  The NASDAQ Composite led the way up with a solid 3.03% advance closing the week at 3378.63, followed by the S&P 500 up 2.03% closing at 1614.42, and the blue chip DJIA up the least at 1.78% closing at 14973.96 after exceeding 15000 on Friday intra-day.  This week the number of NYSE stocks making 52-week highs totaled 789 with new 52-week lows at 54.  This showing was the best showing since March 8 (734 new highs) and March 15 (718).

Indicator Review

This week Indicator #8 issued a BUY signal:

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).  

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator remains on its April 25^th buy signal. (Refer to first chart).  

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest May 1bullish reading of 31.0% was up 2.7 percentage points from the April 24th bullish reading of 28.3%.  This indicator remains on its BUY signal as of April 18^th the release date of the survey.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD.  The indicator issued a BUY signal as of April 30^th close, as there was a positive MACD crossover confirming the Index which crossed over its 5 day-ema the prior Thursday. (Refer to second chart).

Dashboard on “4” BUY signal

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

Dashboard-V2-May 3, 2013

Dark Liquidity

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 3.48% which is well below that of the three major indexes.  Year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 11.89%, S&P 500 is up 13.20%, and the DJIA is up 14.27%.

Top 5 ETFs

The Top 5 ETFs were up  2.32% during the week compared to the market averages up  2.20 %.  The table with the data is provided in this link:

Top 5 ETF Tracking May 3, 2013

Note that RWX is ranked 11^th as of the Friday close, and will be sold on Monday’s open.  It will be replaced by IYT.

Conclusion – Be Careful

The NASDAQ Composite which has now retaken its leadership role has blasted through the 3000 resistance level with ease which it has previously touched twice before this month (refer to first chart).  The current gains may be just the beginning of a much further advance in prices or may be in a topping area before a decline begins.  So far the market has defied the odds and is powering higher after two small corrections in April.  

         Stop LIMIT Orders

For those investors that are long the market tight stop LIMIT orders, such as 3% are suggested to protect principal. 

Remember that if the market suddenly drops, as it did this week due to false twitter news, the stop LIMIT order will only be hit if the market hits the limit price on the way down.  If the price suddenly falls 4% for example, then your 3% stop limit will not be executed.  However, if the stock then reverses up and hits your stop LIMIT price your position will be sold out.  If you decided to use regular stops without a limit price, then you would have been sold out at 4% below the market in the example above.  If you need more information on stop orders then refer to www.investopedia.com and review the definitions of stop loss order and stop limit orders.

As reported in this past Thursday night’s blog, the Dashboard is now on a “3” BUY signal as Indicator #5 had a positive MACD crossover.  The market had a positive week after the previous week’s 2+ percent decline. Since last Friday the market has shown strength and is powering ahead although not all market averages are following exactly.  While the NASDAQ Composite is leading the way forward, the S&P 500 and DJIA are lagging behind a bit, but the DJ Transports and Russell 2000 small-cap stocks are further behind.

For the week, all the major averages showed gains.  The NASDAQ Composite led the way up with a gain of 2.14%, followed by the S&P 500 up 1.74%, and the blue chip DJIA up the least at 1.13%.  This week the number of NYSE stocks making 52-week highs totaled 570 with new 52-week lows at 75.  This showing was improved from the previous week, but new highs are still below the levels of the week ending March 8 (734 new highs) and March 15 (718).

Indicator Review

This week indicator #5 had a positive signal change and #8 is nearing a positive signal change:

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).  

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator is now on a new BUY signal as of its April 25^th (Thursday) closing price as the MACD had a positive crossover. (Refer to first chart).  

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest April 24^th bullish reading of 28.3% was up 1.4 percentage points from the April 17th bullish reading of 26.8%.  This indicator remains on its BUY signal as of April 18^th the release date of the survey.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD.  The indicator remains on its SELL signal as of March 25, buy is nearing a BUY signal, as the Index has crossed over its 5 day-ema on Thursday, but the MACD has not yet done so.  (Refer to second chart).

Dashboard Remains a “3” BUYl

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

Dashboard-V2-April 26, 2013

A chart of the Dashboard signals is presented at the following link:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dark Liquidity

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDH2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 0.85% which is well below that of the three major indexes.  Year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 8.60%, S&P 500 is up 10.94%, and the DJIA is up 12.27%.

Top 5 ETFs

The Top 5 ETFs that passed the test were purchased on the open on Friday.  The table with the data is provided here:

Top 5 ETF Tracking April 26, 2013

Conclusion

The NASDAQ Composite is closing in on the 3000 which it has previously touched twice before this month (refer to first chart).  We’ll see if that level acts as resistance or whether the index will blast through that level for further gains.  The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and the DJIA are a few percentage points away from exceeding their yearly highs that were attained a few weeks ago.

The current gains may be the beginning of a further rise in prices or may result in the overdue correction.  Based on the market’s seasonally weak six-month period beginning on May 1, the odds favor a decline going forward, but that does not mean a further advance will not occur.  So be extremely cautious here.  

         Stop LIMIT Orders

For those investors that are long the market tight consider using stop LIMIT orders, such as 3% are suggested to protect principal. 

Remember that if the market suddenly drops, as it did this week due to false twitter news, the stop LIMIT order will only be hit if the market hits the limit price on the way down.  If the price suddenly falls 4% for example, then your 3% stop limit will not be executed.  However, if the stock then reverses up and hits your stop LIMIT price your position will be sold out.  If you decide to use regular stops without a limit price, then you would have been sold out at 4% below the market in the example above.  If you need more information on stop orders then refer to www.investopedia.com and review the definitions of stop loss order and stop limit orders.  Make sure you understand  how these orders work.

Market Review – Full report this weekend as usual

So far this week the stock market has had a one-way ticket on the upside. Remember that the market had a nice up day last Friday when the market hit lows reached in early April.  The NASDAQ has been the leader this past week and as a result Indicator #5 (refer to chart) has had a positive MACD crossover today resulting in a Dashboard “3” BUY signal.

Dashboard Now on a “3” BUY signal

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

Dashboard-V2-April 25, 2013

Top 5 ETFs

Tomorrow at the open the following five ETFs will be purchased for the portfolio as indicated in ETFscreen’s decision page:  IBB, SMH, XRT, RWX, and XLY as they all past the test.

Conclusion – Extreme Caution is Urged

The stock market is again approaching the highs of a few weeks ago.  This will be another test to see if the new highs can hold or be exceeded.  The latest Dashboard signal is coming at an inopportune time, as the market is in an overbought rather than an oversold condition, so buying any ETFs right now is very risky.  Moreover, we are also a few days away from May 1 which is typically the beginning of the weakest six month period for stock prices.  Therefore, I am personally staying in cash because of this situation.  You can take the signal or not, as you are responsible for your investments.  If you do take the BUY signal, then I suggest a tight stop such as 3% to protect your principal.

A complete blog report will be issued over the weekend.  Be careful here.

Market Review

This week the stock market had a wild ride on the roller-coaster.  With two up days and three big down days the market took a hit this week with the market internals weakening further and the major averages down over 2%.  On Friday the market made a strong comeback to reduce its weekly losses. Two indicators had signal changes on April 17^th, but they cancelled each other out as far as the Dashboard reading, as explained in the Indicator Review section.

For the week, all the major averages showed losses.  The NASDAQ Composite led the way down 2.70%, followed by the S&P 500 down 2.12%, and the blue chip DJIA down 2.14%.  This week the more speculative issues had worse relative performance.  The NASDAQ Composite just managed to close above the critical 3200 level, but under its 50-dma (blue line).  The index is only 2% away from its 100-dma (green line).

Indicator Review – Two Changes Cancel Each Other Out

This week indicators #5 and #6 had signal changes – one negative and one positive, respectively – which are covered below:

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to  chart).  

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator is now on a new SELL signal as of its April 17^th (Thursday) closing price as the MACD had a negative crossover. The crossover actually occurred two days earlier, but it was miniscule, so I did not use that date. (Refer to bottom portion of chart).  

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest April 17^th bullish reading of 26.8% was up 7.5 percentage points from the April 10th bullish reading of 19.3%.  Since the latest reading exceeded the 25% threshold, this indicator is now on a new BUY signal as of April 18^th the release date of the survey.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD.  The indicator remains on its SELL signal as of March 25, and the index and MACD are in a downtrend.(Chart not shown this week).

Dashboard Remains a “2” NEUTRAL signal

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

Dashboard-V2-April 19, 2013

Dark Liquidity

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDH2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 1.16% which is well below that of the three major indexes which declined for the second consecutive week.  Year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 6.25%, S&P 500 is up 9.08%, and the DJIA is up 11.07%.

Conclusion

The stock market had difficulty maintaining its recent highs.  The current pullback may be the beginning of the overdue correction or just a pause to gather steam for the next up leg.  Based on the history of the market’s seasonally weak six-month period beginning in May, the odds favor a further decline.  But history does not repeat itself every time.  So be cautious here and maintain current cash and short-term bond positions.  Patience will prove to be a sound approach while the markets are in a shakeout.

Market Review

This week the stock market had a smooth ride up the roller-coaster and stayed at the top with a solid weekly gain exceeding 2%.  Even with deteriorating internals the market shook off the prior week’s losses and made new highs.  Thursday was the big day this week with big gains in all the indexes.  Where we go from here is what the financial news stations are talking about.  As we enter the seasonally weak period starting in May the market may correct at that point.

For the week, all the major averages showed gains.  The NASDAQ Composite led the way up 2.84%, followed by the S&P 500 up 2.29%, and the blue chip DJIA up 2.06%.  This week the more speculative issues had the better performance.

Indicator Review – No Changes

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).  

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator is on a new BUY signal as of the Thursday  closing price, as the MACD had a positive crossover. (Refer to first chart).  Notice that the NASDAQ Composite had easily surpassed the 3200 and 3260 levels.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest April 10th bullish reading of 19.3% was down a whopping 16.2 percentage points from the April 3^rd bullish reading of 35.5%.  The magnitude of this drop is very rare on a weekly basis, especially since the market is rising steadily.  Nevertheless, this indicator remains on its SELL signal from January 31^st.  However, if this indicator has a reading greater than 25% in any subsequent week then it would result in a BUY signal on this indicator.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD.  The indicator remains on its SELL signal as of March 25 as the MACD had a negative crossover, thus confirming the Summation Index crossover below its 5 day-ema. (Refer to second chart)

Dashboard on a “2” NEUTRAL signal

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

Dashboard-V2-April 12, 2013

Dark Liquidity

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDH2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 1.55% which is well below that of the three major indexes which advanced in this past week.  Year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 8.95%, S&P 500 is up 11.20%, and the DJIA is up 13.21%.

Conclusion

The stock market did not have any trouble making headway this week as the NASDAQ Composite became the leader and the DJIA became the laggard.  Interestingly, gold experienced a big drop on Friday and is on fresh 2013 lows.

Whether the market can continue to advance in light of possible negative news remains to be seen.  For now the uptrend is intact, and the Dashboard is on a NEUTRAL signal.   Be patient.

Market Review

This week the stock market’s roller-coaster ride continued as the S&P 500 Index has had a record twelve consecutive days in a row of an up/down trend (up one day followed by down the next day). U.S. economic news and the continued turmoil in Europe has impacted the market’s ability to go higher.  On Friday, although the DJIA was down 171 points at the low of the day while the NASDAQ Composite was down over 55 points, the market was able to comeback with the DJIA falling only 41 points and the NASDAQ Composite declining 21 points.

The market internals continue to deteriorate.  For example, there were only 492 NYSE new 52-week highs and 91 new lows, compared to the week before when there were 622 new highs compared with over 700 new highs for the weeks of March 8 and 15.  The NASDAQ Composite declined below its 50-dma on Friday intra-day, but was able to close just above it by the close (Refer to Chart above).  Also, note that 3200 is acting as resistance/support, as the NASDAQ has dropped below its prior resistance at 3260 Two defensive sectors –Healthcare and Utilities — had a positive weekly performance.

Keep in mind that in the 2010, 2011 and 2012 the market had a solid run in the first quarter, but faltered in either April declined between 10 and 19%.  A similar outcome may occur this year.

For the week, all the major averages showed losses.  The DJIA down 0.09% at 14565.25, followed by the S&P 500 down 1.01% closing at 1553.28, followed by the NASDAQ Composite closing down 1.95% at 3203.85.

Indicator Review – No Changes

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).   This indicator is now only 3% away its 100-dma. So a SELL signal is on the current horizon if the market continues to falter.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator is on a SELL signal as of its March 21^st  closing price . (Refer to first chart).  

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest April 3^rd bullish reading of 35.5% was down 2.9 percentage points from the March 27^th bullish reading of 38.4%. This indicator remains on its SELL signal from January 31^st.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD.  The indicator remains on its SELL signal as of March 25 as the MACD had a negative crossover, thus confirming the Summation Index crossover below its 5 day-ema. (Refer to second chart)

Dashboard Remains on a “1”SELL signal

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

Dashboard-V2-April 5, 2013

Here is the chart of the BDH Dashboard signals updated by Bob Molner: 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

 Top 5 ETFs – Sold on Open on March 26

The Top 5 ranked ETFs were all sold on the open on March 26, 2013. The portfolio is 100% in cash. Since the March 25th Sell signal, the NASDAQ Composite is down 1.42% while the S&P 500 Index is up 0.10%, and the DJIA is up 0.81%

The Decision Page link with the latest ETF rankings are provided here: http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php.  Once the next buy signal is issued this page will be utilized to select the new portfolio.

Dark Liquidity

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDH2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 1.55% which is well below that of the three major indexes which declined this past week.  Year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 6.11%, S&P 500 is up 8.91%, and the DJIA is up 11.15%.

Conclusion

The stock market is having trouble making headway.  The NASDAQ Composite has been the laggard this year while the blue chip DJIA has been the leader.  Interestingly, even gold made a multi-year low this past week as the market declined.  Normally, gold excels in a falling market.

Whether the market can continue to advance in light of possible negative news remains to be seen.  For now the uptrend has stalled, and the Dashboard remains on a SELL signal.   

Dashboard Remains on “1″  SELL Signal of March 25, 2013

Note:  The last Dashboard “1” SELL signal was inadvertently left in draft mode when I prepared it on March 25.  I found this out on March 27 when I looked at the blog and saw that it was not posted.  I immediately sent out a blog on March 27.  This should not be a problem as the prices for the 5 ETFs that were sold on March 26 were very close to or higher than those on March 25. I apologize for this oversight.

Market Review

This week the stock market made multi-year highs, as the S&P 500 Index finally exceeded its previous 2000 and 2007 highs after about two weeks of meandering near those levels. Thus, both the DJIA and S&P 500 have hit new highs while the lagging NASDAQ Composite Index is still way below its 2000 high of 5048, although it successfully took out the 3260 resistance level (red horizontal line on upper chart).  Even with uncertainty over the European banking and financial situation and other mixed  news in the U.S., the markets continue to grind higher.

It is interesting to note that the three leading sectors based on iShares sector price performance this past week were healthcare (+3.05%), consumer staples (2.13%) and utilities (+2.60%) which are all defensive groups.  Moreover, the number of NYSE stocks hitting new weekly highs this past week was 622, compared with over 700 for the weeks of March 8 and 15.  Both of these factors indicate that the market is weakening internally as it makes new highs.   In the past three years (excluding 2013) the market had a solid run in the first quarter, but faltered in either April or May and declined between 10 and 19%.  A similar outcome may occur this year.

For the week the S&P 500 was the leader up 0.79% closing at 1569.19, followed by the NASDAQ Composite closing up 0.69% at 3267.52. In last place was the DJIA up 0.46% at 14578.54.

Indicator Review

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).   This indicator is far from its 100-dma so a SELL signal is not on the current horizon.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator is on a SELL signal as of its March 21^st  closing price . (Refer to first chart).  However, the MACD is very close to crossing to the upside to generate a new BUY signal if the market opens strong on Monday.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest March 27^th  bullish reading of 38.4% was down 0.5 percentage points from the March 21^st  bullish reading of 38.9%. This indicator remains on its SELL signal from January 31^st.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD.  The indicator remains on its SELL signal as of March 25 as the MACD had a negative crossover, thus confirming  the Summation Index crossover below its 5 day-ema. (Refer to second chart)

Dashboard Now on a “1”SELL signal

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

Dashboard-V2-March 25 2013

Here is the chart of the BDH Dashboard signals updated by Bob Molner:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

 Top 5 ETFs – Sold on Open on March 26

The Top 5 ranked ETFs were all sold on the open on March 26, 2013 and are shown in the table with a comparison to the three major market averages.  The ETF portfolio lost 0.81% compared to a loss of 0.57% for the major averages.  Refer to the table for the performance data:

Top-5-ETF-Tracking-March 26, 2013

The Decision Page link with the latest rankings are provided in the following link: http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php.

Dark Liquidity

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDH2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 1.16% which is well below that of the three major indexes.  Year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 8.21%, S&P 500 is up 10.03%, and the DJIA is up 11.25%.

Conclusion

The stock market continues to struggle but continues to make new highs.  The NASDAQ Composite had been the laggard this year with Apple’s poor performance impacting its results.

Whether the market can continue to advance in light of possible negative news out of Europe remains to be seen.  For now the trend is still up, and the Dashboard remains on a SELL signal.   I will post during the week if the Dashboard has a change to a BUY signal, not for a NEUTRAL signal.

Have a Happy Easter!!

Note: This blog post should have gone out on Monday late afternoon, but it was left in draft mode and did not get posted, although I did notify dark-liquidity which did up date their site.  Sorry for the delay.

Market Situation

Indicator #8 NASDAQ Summation Index and MACD (refer to chart) issued a SELL signal at the market close today, as the MACD registered a downward crossover.  This change resulted in a Dashboard’s SELL signal (1).  The stock market had a roller-coaster day up and down over 100 points before settling with modest losses.

The The Top 5 ETF portfolio will be sold at the opening price on Tuesday morning.  The regular blog posting will occur at the end of this holiday shortened week.

Best wishes for a Happy Passover and Happy Easter!!