It was an interesting week in the WCC.  The Cougars went 2-0, with victories over San Francisco and Santa Clara.  Gonzaga went 1-1, beating Santa Clara but losing a stunner to San Francisco.  St Mary’s had the greatest fall from grace of all, going 0-2 with near-blowout losses to LMU and Murray State. 

So, where does this leave the Cougars?  They are tied for second place in the conference with Gonzaga at 11-3, while St Mary’s still leads at 12-2.  At this point, BYU, Gonzaga, and St Mary’s are all projected to get into the NCAA Tournament, but losses to lesser teams hurt both Gonzaga and St Mary’s in the rankings. 

At this point, Jerry Palm at CBS has Gonzaga as a seven seed, St Mary’s as an eighth seed, and the Cougars as an 11-seed.  The losses by Gonzaga and St Mary’s have left St Mary’s as the only team ranked in a major poll; they are 23^rd in the coaches’ poll.   Inexplicably, the Cougars are still shut out of all of the major polls. 

We find it especially curious that the MWC currently has three teams in the coaches’ top 25.  We feel that the WCC is as good as the MWC this year, and that a two and two distribution would be a better indication of the relative strength of the two conferences. 

The worst factor here is that the Cougars went 2-0, and fell from 46^th in the RPI last week to 50^th this week.  For comparison, Gonzaga is still at 21^st, and St Mary’s fell to 40^th.  With the amount of small conference champions in the grid, 50^th in the RPI is still squarely on the bubble.  Apparently, RPI won’t be the only factor involved. 

The way things are shaking down, the game at Gonzaga on Thursday, while not a “must-win,” is extremely important.  The Cougars could knock the Zags out of top 25 consideration, and might even be able to take their place.  If the Zags win, though, they will probably be back in the top 25. 

We hope the selection committee does the right thing in regards to the Cougars, but winning the conference tournament is the only sure way to take it out of the committee’s hands and guarantee an NCAA Tournament berth. 

So, how did the Cougars get their wins last week?  The near-upset loss on the road against San Francisco was the Matt Carlino show.  Carlino scored 30 points and had the game-winning basket with only 21 seconds left on the clock, as the Cougars pulled out an 85-84 victory. 

Noah Hartsock added 16 points and Charles Abouo had 15 points.  The Cougars shot 36-67 for 53.7 percent from the field, and 7-17 for 41.2 percent from the three point line.  This was a lot better than they had been shooting, and they needed every single point. 

On defense, the Cougars held USF to 33-70 for 47.1 percent from the field and 10-32 for 31.3 percent from the three point line.  This game was a lot faster-paced than usual, with the Cougars scoring 49 points in the first half for their best first half of the year. 

Carlino scored 22 of his points in the first half, including his first six shots, and 20 points in the first eight minutes.  He also added 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 4 steals.  Carlino’s 30 points were the most scored by a Cougar since Jimmer Fredette’s last game, when he scored 32 against Florida. 

The inside game could have been a bit better, though, and it was what allowed USF to stay close and almost pull off the upset.  The Dons outrebounded the Cougars 42-32.  On the surface, it was just “one of those games” that the Cougars were lucky to win.  Really, though, it just illustrates that the Cougars will do whatever it takes to win.  Some days they win with defense and inside play, and Thursday night they won with timely outside shooting. 

Either way, a win is a win, and is always welcome. 

On Saturday, the Cougars returned to their more familiar game of slower tempo, tough defense, and good rebounding, as they ground down Santa Clara 82-67.  Noah Hartsock had 21 points, Brandon Davies had 20 points, and Charles Abouo contributed 14 points along with a game-high 8 rebounds.  Matt Carlino fought off an injury all night and only scored two points, down from his previous 30, but had a game-high seven assists.  Brock Zylstra took up some of the slack with 12 points off the bench, including 2-3 from the three point line. 

The Cougars shot 31-53 for 58.5 percent, with most of the shots coming from inside.  They only went 3-12 for 25 percent from the three-point line.  Doing the math, that works out to 28-41 for 68.3 percent inside the line.  Rebounds were even on the night at 30 for each team.  On defense, BYU held Santa Clara to 23-56 for 41.1 percent shooting, and 5-17 for 29.4 percent from the three point line. 

This game was very closely contested for the first thirty minutes before the Cougars were finally able to pull away from the Broncos. 

The only bad part of the Santa Clara game is that both Noah Hartsock and Matt Carlino limped away from the game.  Carlino plans on being close to full strength on Thursday, while Hartsock is being listed as “day-to-day.”  Our forecast: Hartsock would rather play on crutches than miss this game.  If there is any way he is able, he will talk the coaching staff into letting him try to play. 

If Hartsock can’t play, however, it will make the Gonzaga game a lot tougher to win.  The only good thing to come of it would be that he can be fully rested and healed for the WCC Tournament next week. 

Either way, we expect the game at Gonzaga to be closely-contested.  The Cougars have had their number so far, beating them in last year’s NCAA Tournament and then beating them at home earlier this year.  We’ll see what the Zags can do with home-court advantage.  Win or lose at Gonzaga, a victory at home over Portland to end the regular season is a must. 

The only thing that can be said for sure is that if the Cougars keep winning, they will have a spot in the NCAA Tournament in their first year AJ (After Jimmer).  That would be a very nice accomplishment.

Post from: BYU Sports Guy

Cougars Still in Hunt for NCAA Tournament Bid

With their easy 86-48 win over Pepperdine, the Cougars stayed on track for an NCAA Tournament appearance, but it isn’t over yet by any means. 

We’ll start with the good news.  The Cougars had four starters in double figures.  The fifth, Noah Hartsock, had only nine points this time around, but added three blocks, three assists, and five rebounds while playing only 23 minutes. 

Charles Abouo lead the way with 23 points and 12 rebounds, ending what many saw as a slump with a monster game.  Brandon Davies had 13 points and seven rebounds, while Matt Carlino and Anson Winder had ten points each. 

The bad news is that the shooting isn’t quite “back” yet, with the Cougars going 27-65 for 41.5 percent from the field, and 12-32 for 37.5 percent from behind the three-point line.  Luckily, this time they were able to “out-personnel” the Waves and they didn’t really need a high shooting percentage. 

Also, the Cougars once again played very, very well on the defensive end of the floor.  The best way to combat spotty shooting is to make the other team shoot worse.  The Cougars did that, holding the Waves to 21-63 for 33.3 percent from the floor, and 2-16 for an almost-laughable 12.5 percent from three-point range. 

All-in-all, the Cougars took care of business, and now have four games left on their WCC schedule before the tournament.  San Francisco is a must-win at this point, and so are Santa Clara and Portland.  The game they can afford to lose is at Gonzaga, and it could very well happen that way. 

Strange things happen in Gonzaga’s gym, and the calls often go to the home team there.  Ever since Gonzaga became one of the first smaller-conference teams to get a reputation as a “bracket-buster,” they have been media darlings.  Their victory over St Mary’s this week gave them a spot in the top 25, while the Cougars are still unranked. 

At this point, Jerry Palm of CBS, who we feel is the most accurate predictor of tournament seeds, has the Cougars as one of the last four in.  We don’t know if he follows football, but he has the Cougars playing UCF in the “First Four.”  He has Gonzaga as a six seed, and St Mary’s as a four seed, while the Cougars are a 12 at this point. 

This brings up a sad reality of college sports: politics.  The WCC is a smaller conference, and it is going to be tough to get three teams in.  Due to Gonzaga’s place in the media-dictated food chain, they are going to get the benefit of the doubt over the Cougars, especially the post-Jimmer Cougars.  St Mary’s deserves a slot, too.  So, it will be up to the Cougars to “earn their way in” over the last few games. 

If the Cougars can run the table for the regular season, they should have a berth pretty much locked up with one win in the conference tournament.  They should even be able to afford a loss to Gonzaga on the road, but might have to win two games to get a berth. 

There are two big roadblocks for the Cougars right now.  The first is the possibility of two losses in the next four games.   If that happens, they will probably have to win the conference tournament to get in.  The other main negative here is that if someone besides St Mary’s, Gonzaga, or BYU wins the WCC Tournament, it will knock one of those teams out. 

In other words, there is no way the WCC gets four teams into the NCAA Tournament.  San Francisco is dangerous, as is Loyola Marymount.  Either of those teams could get hot at the right time and win the WCC Tournament.  If this happens, one of the three teams that currently deserve a berth will not get one. 

So, who do we cheer for?  The obvious choice is for the Cougars to run the table, or at least win the WCC Tournament for the automatic berth.  Otherwise, cheer for the trio of St Mary’s, Gonzaga, and BYU to not lose to anyone but each other the rest of the way out. 

This brings us to an interesting question.  What happens if the Cougars sweep Gonzaga but don’t get in?  It isn’t likely, but because of NCAA politics, there is a slight chance that the Cougars could beat Gonzaga twice, only to watch the Zags get a tournament berth while the Cougars play in the NIT. 

Would it be fair?  Of course not.  But stranger things have happened when the NCAA Tournament Committee gets together. 

So, let’s take a look at San Francisco.  The Cougars dispatched them easily last month at the Marriott Center, 81-56.  After that game, the Dons were 10-7 overall and 0-4 in the conference.   Since then, the Dons have gone 7-3, for a 17-10 overall record and a 7-6 conference record. 

The Cougars can’t afford to underrate or look past this team.  We’re sure Coach Rose is drilling that into their heads as we speak, and that the upperclassmen on the team won’t allow it to happen, but the Cougars will  have to be at their best to avoid what could be a crushing blow to their NCAA Tournament hopes. 

Remember that the Dons will be at home, are playing with a lot more confidence, and have revenge on their minds after losing by 25 points in their first meeting.   Of all four games, this is now the most important one, because it is one the Cougars could very realistically lose, and one that would be devastating if they did.

If the Cougars can win this one, they should have enough of a cushion to afford a loss at Gonzaga if it happens.  If they lose on Thursday, they have to beat Gonzaga or win the WCC Tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament.

We predict a much closer game this time, with the Cougars pulling it out, 66-60.   

Post from: BYU Sports Guy

Cougars Stay on Road to NCAA Tournament

In the ESPN/USA today poll, which is pretty much the poll that reflects how the public perceives the teams involved, St Mary’s is at number 13, while the only other team in the WCC to get any votes was Gonzaga, who got 18.  This would work out to Gonzaga being ranked 27^th and no other team from the WCC in the top 42. 

Jerry Palm of CBS, whose picks don’t usually agree with the coaches or with other writers, but are eerily dead-on for who gets into the tournament and who doesn’t, agrees with the polls this time.  He has St Mary’s as a 4 seed, Gonzaga as a 10, and the Cougars as a 13 and one of the “last four in.”

This rightfully gives St Mary’s credit for a perfect conference record so far, but it still ranks Gonzaga three places above a team that just beat them.  From everything we have heard, Palm doesn’t go solely by his own opinion, but works his sources very well, and seems to have a remarkable grasp of what the committee is thinking. 

So, while it’s nice to “fly under the radar” and surprise people come tournament time, the Cougars still have to get into the tournament.  They should be able to afford to lose to Gonzaga on the road and lose to St Mary’s one more time in the WCC Tournament and still get into the NCAA Tournament as long as they beat everyone else left on the schedule. 

This would probably get them a 12 or 13 seed, as close as we can tell.  A sweep of Gonzaga should get the Cougars the 10 spot that Gonzaga now has, but you never know.  In this case, though, being underrated could end up helping the Cougars immensely.

If a team is seeded at 7-10 or 15-16, it means they have to play the one or two seed the first weekend.  This greatly diminishes their chances to make it to the second weekend.  We don’t have the exact numbers, but the amount of one and two seeds that make it to the second weekend is staggering, probably somewhere over an .875 percentage, or seven out of eight most years. 

We had hoped that, with a strong finish, the Cougars could end up seeded a lot higher.   Then the Cougars beat two teams, including a projected ten seed, only to still be rated as one of the “last four in.”  At this point, it looks like the only way the Cougars are going to get better than a seven ranking by the committee is to run the table, defeating Gonzaga on the road and winning the WCC Tournament.   Consequently, if the Cougars don’t win the WCC tournament, we are pulling for a 12 seed, and for the Cougars to pull off one of the tournament’s most storied traditions: the 12/5 upset. 

  Let’s take a look at the games that should have gotten the Cougars ranked higher, but were virtually ignored by the national media.  The game against Gonzaga was a convincing, ten point home victory.  One of the big problems as of late has been the Cougars’ abysmal shooting from three-point range.  It didn’t get any better, but they took a lot less shots from outside, and finished 3-12 from outside of the arc. 

Dave Rose is a very good coach, and against Gonzaga, he had the team driving to the basket as much as possible.  From inside of the arc, the Cougars shot 31-57 for 58 percent, and they totaled 34-69 for a very respectable 49.3 percent.  Noah Hartsock led the Cougars with 24 points, while Matt Carlino poured in a sorely-needed 18, and Brandon Davies had 15.  Anson Winder was also in double figures with 10 points.  Hartsock also had 14 rebounds to lead the Cougars. 

Even though there was a gross disparity in fouls, with Gonzaga inexplicably getting to the line for 28 free throws to the Cougars’ 17, the Cougars were easily able to overcome the Zags’ 20-12 advantage in points scored from the free throw line.  The Cougars’ defense, which has become world class at this point, held Gonzaga to 25-61 from the field for 41 percent, and 3-19 from three-point range for 15.8 percent. 

The win over Gonzaga was a huge win for the Cougars, but it will be all for naught if they don’t take care of business against the lesser teams in the conference.  The next game was on the road at Portland, and the Cougars didn’t take it lightly.  They left Portland with a 79-60 victory.  Brandon Davies had the monster game this time, with 18 points, 13 rebounds, eight steals, four assists, and one block. 

Against Gonzaga, the Cougars came up on the short end of a disparity in free throws.  Against Portland, though, they were rewarded for taking the ball inside against a young team that really couldn’t do anything to stop them except foul.  This made for a terrible shooting percentage from the field: 19-54 for 35.2 percent.  However, the Cougars more than made up for it at the free throw line, going 38-53 for 71.7 percent.  A total of five Cougars made it into double figures against Portland. 

It cannot be stated strongly enough: the Cougars are winning on defense, driving the ball inside, and scrappy team play.  This team is turning out to be one of Dave Rose’s best coaching jobs: they are 20-6 with five regular season games to go.  We are predicting a 4-1 finish with Gonzaga getting revenge at home for a season total of 24-7 going into the WCC Tournament.

A 2-1 record in the tournament would produce a record of 26-8, which should be more than enough to get the Cougars into the tournament.  Winning the WCC Tournament, though, would remove all doubt, and the Cougars would probably get a five or six seed. 

We think the Cougars will beat Gonzaga nine times out of ten on a neutral court.  What we see as the most likely scenario is the Cougars playing a St Mary’s team that is undefeated in conference and tournament play in the tournament final.  If this happens, the pressure is all on St Mary’s, and there is almost no pressure on the Cougars. 

Therefore, we are going to get our prediction in early: the Cougars will upset St Mary’s in the WCC Tournament for the WCC’s automatic NCAA Tournament berth.  

Post from: BYU Sports Guy

Cougars Win Two, Still Get No Respect from National Media

We’ll start with the good.  The Cougars came home from Blacksburg, VA with an exciting 70-68 road victory over an ACC team, the Virginia Tech Hokies.  The Cougars shot only 22-66 for 33.3 percent from the field, and 5-24 for 20.8 percent from the three point line, but went 21-24 for 87.5 percent from the free throw line.  Most of that came from Noah Hartsock, who went 7-8, and Brandon Davies, who went 11-12.  Hartock would score 22 total points and Davies would total 17 for the game.

Brock Zylstra would only hit one shot the entire game, but it was a great one: a three-pointer with 26.5 seconds left to put the Cougars up 69-66.  The 69^th point would turn out to be the winner, as Tech would eventually miss a long, well-guarded three-pointer at the buzzer. 

Even though Virginia Tech is only 1-5 in the ACC, the victory should help the Cougars with the NCAA Tournament committee at the end of the season.  The victory, though, showed both strengths and weaknesses.  When the Cougars can get the ball inside, they can get to the line.  The Cougars got the ball inside enough against Virginia Tech to squeak out a win, but the shooting from outside was not good enough to win most of the time.  This would come back to take a sizable chunk out of their flesh against St Mary’s.

The Cougars are a better team than many anticipated, but this year, they probably aren’t going to catch St Mary’s.  The Cougars did a lot of things right against St Mary’s.  They played very good defense for much of the game, forcing 24 turnovers.  St Mary’s shot 24-43 for 55.8 percent.  When you consider that two players combined to go 12-16 for 75 percent, that means the rest of the team shot 12-27 for 44 percent, which usually doesn’t get the job done.

Unfortunately, the Cougars only shot 25-61 for 41 percent.  The worst part was that they were only 2-13 from three point range.  This killed any chance the Cougars had at getting the momentum to sustain any long runs or get back into the game.  We don’t want to belabor the obvious, but they definitely miss having a shooter who can consistently “fill it up” from the perimeter. 

On the good side, Noah Hartsock, Matt Carlino, and Brandon Davies scored 15, 15, and 14 respectively.  This week’s game with Gonzaga is the most important game at this juncture of the season.  The Cougars have to win this game to keep a share of third place, pull to within a game of second place, and have at least a mathematical possibility of catching St Mary’s for the regular season conference title. 

A loss to Gonzaga would not end the Cougars’ chances, but it would make things difficult.  At this point, it looks like the Cougars will have to make a very good showing, not only the rest of the year, but in the WCC Tournament, to get to the Tournament.  A victory over Gonzaga would go a long way toward giving the Cougars some “breathing room.” 

Jerry Palm of CBS, who is usually quite accurate, has flip-flopped the Cougars from “last four in” to “first four out” status on an almost weekly basis this season.  The Cougars need to do something to get off of both “lists.”  The last seven regular season games on the schedule include two against Gonzaga.  They will probably meet Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament, too.  It is mandatory that the Cougars win at least once out of those three games.  Three losses to Gonzaga would ruin the Cougars’ chances of making it this year.  It would be “easiest” to get one victory out of the way ASAP.  That would be tomorrow. 

When the WCC Tournament comes, anything can happen.  Thus, there is always a chance that the Cougars can win that tournament, and take their tournament berth out of the hands of the selection committee.  This is going to require much better outside shooting than we saw this week, though. 

As St Mary’s showed, it is a lot easier to defend the inside when nobody on the other team is a threat to shoot well from outside.  The Cougars need to come out of what is now being called their “slump” from outside, and loosen things up for the inside. 

The Cougars usually don’t get a bunch of four and five stars who are between 6-10 and 7-2.  Brandon Davies is a warrior, but even he can’t be expected to shoulder the entire load of the Cougar offense if other teams can bring extra players to “help” on him without paying for it elsewhere on the floor.

The bottom line: somebody is going to have to step up and be “the man” outside.  It doesn’t have to be the same person every game, and it doesn’t have to be Jimmer-like, but someone has to hit enough shots from the perimeter, preferably from the three-point line, to take the pressure off of Davies and Hartsock. 

Hopefully, it starts against Gonzaga.

Quick Signing Day Notes

All across the country, National Signing Day mania is in full force.  All of the major outlets are dedicating shows and staffs to cover it from 9am until midnight.  In Provo, though, it isn’t like that.  As in basketball, the Cougars usually don’t pull a roster full of four and five star athletes.  Usually, there aren’t even that many three-star athletes.  Then, we can’t really get too excited about anyone, because we don’t know when they will be going on their missions.

It almost makes following NSD a moot point, but we will give a few quick notes here.

Three quarterbacks have signed their LOI’s.  Tanner Mangum, four star 2012 recruit, is coming in with the most press.  However, transfer Ammon Olsen, former Utah 5A MVP, is back from a mission to Mexico City, enrolled, and officially signed, with three years of eligibility left.  Taysom Hill, also coming back from a mission, and the most highly-recruited athlete in Idaho in 2008, has signed his LOI.  Hill originally signed with Stanford and Jim Harbaugh, who seems to know a little about quarterbacks.

If all goes well, Riley Nelson will have a great, injury-free senior year, and the competition behind him will be fierce.  Mangum should go on his mission this year or next year, leaving Olsen and Hill as the main “recruits” from the “2012 class.”  

Post from: BYU Sports Guy

Cougars Basketball: Still a Work in Progress

Who is going to take over for Jimmer Fredette?

The obvious answer is that nobody on the team is another Jimmer Fredette.  Players of his caliber only come along once or twice in most teams’ histories.  When you take a deeper look, though, the answer is that everybody has to take over.  Everybody has to elevate their games, and a lot of teamwork is required. 

The Cougars have done a great job so far.  Four players are averaging double figures, and Brock Zylstra is chipping in with 9 ppg, with Stephen Rogers contributing 7.7 ppg.  We will have more to say about those in double figures later in this post.

I guess the best way to answer this question is that teamwork and defense are going to take over for Jimmer Fredette.  That is absolutely not a knock on last year’s team, either.  When you have a talent like Fredette, you have to let him shine.  Conversely, when a talent like Fredette leaves, it’s time for everybody to elevate their games and pick up the slack.  In basketball, as in football, the best way to do this is to pick it up on the defensive end. 

Should BYU even bother to show up this year?

Not if they had listened to the national press.  I doubt that many would have predicted the Cougars to even go .500 this year.  I wonder that those who predicted gloom and doom for the Cougars think now?  They aren’t getting much national TV time or publicity at this point, but the Cougar are 17-5 overall, and 6-2 in conference play.  In other words, the Cougars are playing a lot better than most national writers predicted them to, and the total collapse predicted by many just hasn’t happened.

We’ve all seen the pattern over and over.  For whatever reason, the Cougars are usually the last team to get any respect from the national press.  The football contract with ESPN has helped matters greatly, but the Cougars are still seen as an afterthought when upper-echelon teams are being discussed.  Only the stratospheric play of Jimmer Fredette got the Cougars any respect at all last year. 

Even so, most writers saw the Cougars as a one-man team, and at least one national sports personality found a way to predict them losing every game in the tournament before someone was finally right.  This year, Jerry Palm, who usually does a very good job at CBS, still has the Cougars as one of his last four teams to make it into the tournament. 

Palm usually gets a lot of his predictions right, especially toward the end of the season.  This is bothersome, because he apparently is brilliant at figuring out all of the politics that go into choosing the field.  Is a 17-5 BYU team really only deserving of a play-in game?  In the preseason coaches’ poll, the Cougars got exactly one vote as a top 25 team.  Even at 17-5, they only have one vote in this week’s poll. 

So, who has really stepped it up this season?

Noah Hartsock and Brandon Davies have been the top scorers this year, and both have contributed a lot of leadership, besides their points.  Hartsock not only scored twenty against Pepperdine, but blocked three shots.  Along the way, he became the 43^rd player in Cougar history to score over 1,000 points.  In the loss to Loyola-Marymount, Hartsock had a career-high 28 points. 

Davies could have sulked after last year.  He could have transferred.  He could have come in with a bad attitude.  Instead, he has worked his tail off.  Davies scored 29 against Pepperdine, with 15-18 shooting from the free throw line, and contributed two blocks. 

From the outside, Matt Carlino, Charles Abouo are both shooting .444, and have combined for 41 percent from outside of the three-point line.   Fifth starter Zylstra and sixth man Rogers have combined to shoot .483, and .409 from three-point range. 

As we alluded to at the beginning, defense is where the Cougars have really shined this year.  While we all like to see scoring, the other half of the game is to not let the opponent score.  The Cougars have allowed only 65.1 points per game this year, while scoring 80. 

CBS, in whatever metric they use, has the Cougars as the number twelve team in the country in total defense.  While they are ranked around 100 in points allowed, this doesn’t take a lot of things into consideration, such as competition or the pace of the game in your part of the country. 

We like the scoring margin stat, in which the Cougars are 14^th in the country right now with a 14.9 point margin.  Conference leader St Mary’s, who are having a monster season so far, are in sixth place with a 16.9 margin.  While the Cougars are in third place in the WCC right now, we see them as the second-best team in the league.  A victory over St Mary’s in the WCC tournament, though, could change everything. 

And this brings us to our next topic:

So, where is this team headed?

The next three games should tell a lot.  Virginia Tech is first.  On paper, they look OK, with a 12-7 record, but they have pretty much lost to everyone they’ve played who is any good, and fattened their record with tomato cans.  They play in the ACC, which is one of the two toughest conferences in college basketball, but they are beatable.  If the Cougars beat VT, it will certainly help the respect level in the national press.

The next two conference games, though, will tell a lot.  It is essential that the Cougars at least win one of the next two home games against St Mary’s and Gonzaga.  If they win both, it proves that the Cougars are as good as anyone in the league.  If they lose both, they are going to have to work hard to get into the NCAA draw.  

Post from: BYU Sports Guy

Moving Along Nicely in the Post-Jimmer Era

The BCS likes to say that, under the current system, “every game counts.”  This is just a flat-out lie on many levels.  First and foremost, how can anyone say with a straight fact that LSU’s victory over Alabama in the regular season “counted” for anything? 

Secondly, it has become obvious that, after one loss, any game played by any team not in the SEC doesn’t “count” for anything.  Ultimately, Oklahoma State’s 12 wins didn’t “count” for anything.  Neither did Stanford’s 11 wins in the regular season.  Oregon’s season was basically over after the first game, when it lost to LSU. 

The current system is a travesty.  Why is the NCAA’s largest revenue sport still the only one in which a true champion is not determined on the field of play?  The answer, plain and simple, is that it is all about the money, but not in the way one would think. 

The BCS in general, and the bowls in particular, wield an incredible amount of power over the NCAA.  Worse yet, they allow this voluntarily.  Human nature dictates that there must be something in it for the school presidents and athletic directors who continue to vote for this system, because people almost always act in their own self-interest.  To understand this fully, a little bit of background is necessary. 

The “Granddaddy of them All,” the Rose Bowl, was originally created in 1902 to promote tourism in Pasadena.  Soon, other cities followed suit, and by 1937, there were five major bowl games: the Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Cotton Bowl Classic, Orange Bowl, and Sun Bowl.  These games were considered to be exhibitions, and had no bearing on who was called the National Champion, as all polls were done shortly after the season had ended. 

Now, there are so many bowls that 6-6 teams are being allowed to play, and 6-7 UCLA was even granted a waiver to play in a bowl this year.  The BCS was created in 1988, ostensibly to create the five “best” bowl matchups, including the “BCS Championship Game.” 

All it has done, though, is to create a “system” that is almost exactly like the old bowl system, but with two teams playing for a paper “championship” while other worthy teams are excluded.  Most teams don’t complain most years, because a major bowl with a payout in the $10 million range is a great “consolation prize.”

Really, though, it isn’t a prize anymore.  A bowl game used to be an exhibition game that would reward the student-athlete for a great year.  While the athletes are still rewarded with a week of activities and a great “swag bag” of gifts like iPods and popular video game systems, it is really nothing more than another road game, another week of hard work, and another opportunity to get injured. 

In other words, bowl games are now exactly what those who argue against a playoff cite as their main reason for arguing against a playoff: more wear and tear on the “student-athlete.”  With the new schedule that plays the “championship game” a full week after the New Year’s Day bowls, and lesser bowls playing the week in between, the other argument that a playoff would take too long is laughable.

So, why do the presidents keep voting against a playoff and refusing to even discuss it most years?  It is because the presidents get too many perks from the bowls.  Basically, too many bowls are a money-laundering operation where money is funneled from the general funds of the athletic departments and turned into vacations for the presidents, athletic directors, various trustees and school officials, and their families. 

Schools are required to “buy” amounts of tickets that they can’t possibly sell, and the difference is “made up” by the school purchasing the unsold tickets themselves.  This money is used to entertain presidents and AD’s, and to buy numerous gifts for decision-makers.  The Fiesta Bowl Scandal of 2011 is laughable, in that those who were fired were only doing what nearly every other major bowl is doing in a de facto sense: bribing school officials. 

Consequently, even though the NCAA is leaving a ton of money on the table by not having a true playoff, most bowl officials believe that a true playoff would diminish the importance of the bowls.  Bowl officials desperately want to retain their power, and don’t hesitate to use the relationships they have built with presidents and AD’s over the years to their advantage.

So, how does this affect the Cougars?  First of all, it is obvious that they need to stay right where they are.  If the Cougars want to play for the “National Championship,” they will have to run the table, but it is possible in a great year.  The trick is to schedule just enough games against high-quality competition to obtain high rankings, but not so many that they risk being knocked out of the running.

Until the system is changed, it just doesn’t make sense for the Cougars to join a conference.  At this point, they have one main competitor: Notre Dame.  If the Cougars are the best of the independent teams, they will probably get a slot in a BCS bowl.  Instead of competing against 10-14 teams for the honor, it is much better leverage to compete against a few independents. 

The Cougars have enough natural rivalries to fill out an entertaining schedule, and enough TV coverage to get ranked highly if they win between 11 or 12 games.   As we guessed last spring, it will take at least 10 wins to get into a BCS bowl, and probably 11.  Until the system changes, it just makes more sense to remain independent. 

If there is ever a playoff consisting of conference champions only, then the Cougars will be forced to join a conference.  In the meantime, though, they are in the best possible situation.  They can continue to grow the BYU brand, take care of business on the field, and set their sights squarely on overtaking Notre Dame as the top independent football program in the country.

Post from: BYU Sports Guy

The BCS Scam-pionship and How It Affects the Cougars

Cougars win Third Straight Bowl Game

In August, we correctly guessed that anything less than ten regular season wins would keep the Cougars from a BCS bid and put them in the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces bowl. Even though the bowl was in Fort Worth, the finish was more worthy of their early 1980’s appearances in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego. The Cougars came from behind twice, and would finally win the game in the last minute on a play for the ages.

As has been their habit against good teams, the Cougars started slow. Tulsa started their first drive on their own 24, and Brandon Ogletree was whistled for a facemask penalty, giving the Golden Hurricane the ball on their own 39. The Cougars then allowed Tulsa to drive down the field 61 yards for a touchdown in a little over six minutes. Tulsa would net 19 yards on the ground and 42 in the air. This would turn out to be one more rushing yard than Tulsa got for the rest of the game combined.

As we often see in bowl games against reasonably well-matched teams, most of the game was a defensive struggle. The Cougars scored on a 35 yard field goal by Justin Sorenson with seventeen seconds left in the first quarter to close the margin to 7-3 for Tulsa. On Tulsa’s second offensive drive in the second quarter, the defense went to sleep for four plays, and it would cost them an 86-yard drive for a touchdown that took only 1:16 off of the clock. A seven-yard run was followed by passes of 50, 14, and 14 yards to put Tulsa ahead 14-3.

At the end of the first half, special teams came up big, as David Foote recovered a Justin Sorenson punt that was fumbled by JD Ratliff at the Tulsa 17. If there’s one thing the Cougars have proven this year, it’s that they are able to take advantage of opportunities caused by turnovers. Riley Nelson did what great QB’s and teams do, throwing a 17-yard pass to Cody Hoffman on the first play for a touchdown to bring the Cougars to within 14-10 with twelve seconds left in the first half. On the play, which will probably be in a lot of highlight reels, Matt Reynolds lost his helmet, but then flattened Tulsa DE Cory Dorris, giving Nelson time to make what turned out to be a crucial throw.

In the second half, though, it was more defense. Finally, with 1:41 left in the third quarter, Nelson hit Hoffman with another TD pass, this time for 31 yards, to put the Cougars on top, 17-14. With 10:42 left in the fourth quarter, though, the defense would once again allow a big play for Tulsa, as they took advantage of a short field. They completed a 58-yard drive with a 30-yard TD pass, and would go on top, 21-17.

After failed drives by both teams, the Cougars would get the ball back at the Tulsa 48 with 4:18 and the season on the line. Riley Nelson will never be confused with a classic, drop-back, rifle-armed NFL quarterback, but he is one of the most competitive and fearless quarterbacks in the game. The last drive showed almost everything that is great about the Cougars in four minutes and seven seconds. After three plays for one yard, it was fourth and nine on the Tulsa 47-yard line. Failing to find an open receiver, Riley Nelson tucked the ball and ran 14 yards for a first down.

The Cougars then went to the running game with Bryan Kariya and JJ DiLuigi getting the ball to the Tulsa 13-yard line, and Riley Nelson getting the ball to the eight. Nelson would complete a pass to Marcus Mathews at the two. Then came the play that had the football world paying attention to the Cougars. BYU had no time outs left, and Nelson was yelling the signal to “clock” the ball. As the ball was snapped, everyone on the team did what they would normally do in a “clock” situation.

Everyone, that is, but Riley Nelson and Cody Hoffman. Nelson threw the ball to Hoffman on the right side of the end zone for a touchdown with eleven seconds left on the clock. A Justin Sorenson extra point, and subsequent kickoff into the end zone for a touchback would leave Tulsa with eleven seconds to go eighty yards. Tulsa would lateral the ball twice and fumble it once before Travis Uale would cover the ball up for the victory.

Game balls go to Riley Nelson, Cody Hoffman, and Matt Reynolds on offense. On defense, Kyle Van Noy had another solid game, with nine solo tackles, two sacks, and one QB hurry. David Foote gets the special teams game ball for his fumble recovery, and Justin Sorenson gets one for a very consistent game and for not giving Tulsa a chance to win the game on his kickoff.

In winning the Armed Forces Bowl, the Cougars won three bowl games in a row for the first time in their history. They also wrapped up their fifth 10-win season in the last six years, which they have only done once before, from 1980-1985. At the beginning of the season, we knew the Cougars had a chance of having a special season, but that it would take a few bounces going the right way for it to happen. All in all, though, 2011 turned out to be a very good year for BYU.

On the good side, BYU has found its next great quarterback. Once again, Riley Nelson probably won’t make it to the NFL, but he is the consummate team player, and one of the toughest quarterbacks in college. Most of all, Riley Nelson is a leader. Greatness is often measured in stats. With Riley Nelson, though, it has to be “measured” by the intangibles.

To be a great quarterback, you have to win games. Also, your team has to follow you. Riley Nelson has a very rare talent. He is able to make the team play better when he is in the game. Like a great point guard in basketball, Nelson’s strength is his ability to manage the team and get the job done, regardless of individual stats or glory.

When Nelson lost his job to Jake Heaps, a lesser man would have pouted and complained about “losing his starting job due to injury.” Riley Nelson didn’t do that, though. Instead, he “manned up,” contributed to the team in any way he could, and made sure he would be prepared for his next opportunity. When Nelson finally got the opportunity, he took full advantage of it, and the Cougars showed their respect by the way they responded with Nelson behind center. By the time it was all over, the Cougars had another ten-win season.

Thank you, Riley Nelson, for being such a great leader this season. The Cougars are in good hands for 2012.

Post from: BYU Sports Guy

Armed Forces Bowl Highlights

When:  December 30  10:00 am, MST

Where:  Ford Stadium, Dallas

Teams:  BYU (9-3, independent) vs Tulsa (8-4, CUSA)

Tulsa is quite similar to the Cougars.  The Cougars won eight of their last nine games, while Tulsa won seven of their last eight.  Tulsa ran better numbers than the Cougars this year, finishing 23^rd in the FBS in total offense with 454.4 yards per game, and 24^th in scoring at 34.1 points per game.  Meanwhile, the Cougars finished 41^st in total offense with  410.8 yards per game, and 42^nd in points with 30.6 points per game. 

On defense, Tulsa allowed 27.6 points per game this year, while the Cougars allowed only 20.3 points per game to rank 23^rd in the FBS.  Remember that the Cougars’ total is skewered greatly by the Utah game getting out of hand to the tune of 54 Ute points.  

 Both teams lost to higher-ranked teams but took care of business against lower-ranked teams.    Both teams are balanced, though Tulsa is a little better at running the ball.  Tulsa averaged 204.6 yards per game on the ground and 249.8 in the air.  The Cougars gained 165.8 on the ground and 245.0 in the air. 

For Tulsa, here are the players to watch out for.

G.J Kinne, QB. 

Kinne started all twelve games for the Golden Hurricane and finished with 230 completions in 359 attempts for 2876 yards with 12 interceptions and 25 TD’s.  He also ran for 513 yards in 112 carries. 

Ja’Terian Douglas, RB.

Douglas ran the ball 108 times for 909 yards, which comes out to an impressive average of 8.2 yards per carry.  He scored four touchdowns. 

Trey Watts, RB.

Watts ran the ball 147 times for 872 yards for an average of 5.7 yards per carry and three touchdowns. 

Willie Carter, H-back/slot receiver.

Carter caught 61 passes in eleven games for 868 yards for an average of 14.2 per catch and 78.9 per game.  He had seven touchdowns and a long catch of 69 yards.

Bryan Burnham, Wide Receiver.

Burnham caught 50 passes in twelve games for 737 yards, an average of 14.7 yards per catch and 61.4 per game.  He had eight touchdowns and a long catch of 56 yards.

Carter and Burnham are just two of five receivers who got serious time and gained at least 355 yards in 2011. 

On defense, LB’s Cornelius Arnick (91 solo tackles) and Shawn Jackson (63 solo tackles) lead the way, with  Dexter McCoil (FS),Marco Nelson (SS), and LB Alan Dock right behind them.   

All in all, this looks to be a competitive matchup for the Cougars.  The Cougars are going for their third consecutive bowl win, which is something they have never been able to accomplish.  They are also going for their fifth ten-win season in the last seven years, which would put head coach Bronco Mendelhall in a class with Bob Stoops and Mark Richt as coaches who had five seasons of ten wins or more in their first seven years. 

The biggest question for the Cougars is who will back up Riley Nelson at QB if he gets injured.  James Lark was the backup QB when Nelson was injured, but we can’t even pretend to know exactly what is going on with the backup position right now.  All we can do is hope that Nelson is able to play the entire game, giving OC Brandon Doman ample time this spring to develop some depth at the position for next season. 

We have a feeling, though, that Doman may want Nelson to slide or go out of bounds a bit more often in the bowl game. 

Our take:

We think that Tulsa will have problems moving the ball against the Cougar defense.  We also expect the defense to come up with a turnover or two.  We see the game being played close to the vest in the first half, with the Cougars finally pulling away in the fourth quarter as Riley Nelson’s leadership and versatility makes the difference. 

BYU 34, Tulsa 14.

Post from: BYU Sports Guy

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl Preview

Brock Zylstra scored 26 points and Anson Winder came off the bench for 20 points, giving both players career highs.  Noah Hartsock was in foul trouble in a scoreless first half, but came back to score 16 points in the second half.  Freshman point guard Matt Carlino continued to be a pleasant surprise, chipping in with 10 points and 11 assists.  He also added seven rebounds, missing a triple-double by three. 

And just to prove it wasn’t a fluke, the Cougars went up against the Santa Barbara Gauchos and won 89-75. Even without Jimmer, the gaurds are stepping up and shot 0.400 from the 3 PT line.  Thank you Brandon Davies for stepping up and making plays for 17 points!

The Cougars are now 10-3, with a visit coming up from UC San Marcos before the conference schedule begins on December 29 on the road at St Mary’s.  We see no reason why the cougars shouldn’t be 11-3 before hitting the road, which is an acceptable start and one that should help ensure that the Cougars make the NCAA tournament in their first year of the post-Jimmer era. Especially if we consider which teams the Cougars lost to.

We don’t think USU would beat the Cougars in a rematch, even though USU has a decent team.  The other two losses were to then #11 Wisconsin and #7 undefeated Baylor. The WCC has some good basketball teams to challenge the Cougars but even without the Jimmer, the team has shown it can compete at a much higher level than expected.

Outsiders didn’t give the Cougars much of a chance at getting back into the tournament this year.  From writers to oddsmakers, nobody seems to be giving the Cougars much credit.  They see the loss of Jimmer as an impossible obstacle.  Luckily, coach Dave Rose hasn’t told the Cougars that they can’t win. 

When a team has a star like Jimmer Fredette, the tendency, even for teams with a great work ethic, is to stand around and watch the star go to work.  And really, it makes sense.  When you have a player like Jimmer on your team, he is the person you want taking most of your shots.  Sometimes, though, other talented players are overlooked. 

This year, the Cougars will have “star by committee.”  Nobody is going to come close to what Jimmer did last year, but there will be some pleasant surprises.  Sometimes a balanced team that can beat you in more ways than one can outperform a team with a transcendent star.  We aren’t predicting a Final Four for this team, but we see no reason they can’t make the Sweet Sixteen this season. 

We plan on having fun watching.

Post from: BYU Sports Guy

Cougar Basketball Recovers From Loss With Victory Over Buffalo And Santa Barbara

BYU basketball definitely feels a lot different in the post-Jimmer era.  There isn’t nearly as much media coverage outside of the Utah market as there was.  The team doesn’t have a real star, instead relying on the workmanlike contributions of players who were seen merely as supporting acts last year.  

Post from: BYU Sports Guy

It Always Feels Great to Beat the Utes