https://www.cfr.org/ Brad Setser tracks cross-border flows, with a bit of macroeconomics thrown in. en Sun, 12 Apr 2026 14:09:28 -0400 https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-currency-now-facing-substantial-appreciation-pressure The conventional wisdom among China watchers has long been that China will not allow a substantia Brad W. Setser Follow the Money China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Post Currency Reserves Economics International Finance https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-currency-now-facing-substantial-appreciation-pressure Wed, 07 Jan 2026 15:04:23 EST Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/can-china-continue-export-its-way-out-its-property-slump China’s economy has experienced a prolonged bout of deflation (falling prices). Brad W. Setser Follow the Money Trade and Investment China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Post International Economics International Monetary Fund (IMF) https://www.cfr.org/blog/can-china-continue-export-its-way-out-its-property-slump Wed, 26 Nov 2025 16:59:24 EST Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-massive-surplus-everywhere-yet-imf-still-has-trouble-seeing-it-clearly It is not hard to find evidence of China’s massive trade surplus. Brad W. Setser Follow the Money China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Trade Post International Economics International Monetary Fund (IMF) https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-massive-surplus-everywhere-yet-imf-still-has-trouble-seeing-it-clearly Mon, 10 Nov 2025 14:44:03 EST Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/argentina-needs-foreign-exchange-reserves-its-own There are, broadly speaking, two competing theories that help to explain why Argentina has a long Brad W. Setser Follow the Money Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Argentina Post Currency Reserves International Economic Policy International Finance https://www.cfr.org/blog/argentina-needs-foreign-exchange-reserves-its-own Sun, 02 Nov 2025 00:09:36 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/trump-shock-wasnt-least-not-yet President Trump’s tariffs have been a profound shock to the global trade rules. Brad W. Setser Follow the Money Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Trade Post Economics International Finance Trump https://www.cfr.org/blog/trump-shock-wasnt-least-not-yet Thu, 11 Sep 2025 16:47:28 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/article/foreign-money-flowed-out-us-not-during-global-financial-crisis There is one fact that nearly everyone—prominent investors, leading international economists, and Brad W. Setser Article Follow the Money Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Financial Markets Economics International Finance International Investment https://www.cfr.org/article/foreign-money-flowed-out-us-not-during-global-financial-crisis Mon, 01 Sep 2025 18:08:33 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-data-still-doesnt-add This is a joint post with Michael Weilandt, Research Associate at the Council on Foreign Relation Brad W. Setser Follow the Money China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Trade Post Currency Reserves International Economics https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-data-still-doesnt-add Thu, 07 Aug 2025 17:10:38 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-new-intervention-rule The daily Central Parity Rate (“fix”) is supposed to be the middle point in the daily trading ban Brad W. Setser Follow the Money China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Post Currency Reserves Economics International Finance https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-new-intervention-rule Tue, 29 Jul 2025 16:44:10 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/china-also-fighting-trade-war-europe-and-winning U.S. President Donald J. Brad W. Setser China 360 China Strategy Initiative Follow the Money China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Trade Post European Union Industrial Policy https://www.cfr.org/blog/china-also-fighting-trade-war-europe-and-winning Mon, 28 Jul 2025 15:40:47 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/better-late-never-imf-starts-recognizes-balance-payments-reality There are a few things to note in the IMF’s Brad W. Setser Follow the Money Trade and Investment Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Post Economics International Finance International Monetary Fund (IMF) https://www.cfr.org/blog/better-late-never-imf-starts-recognizes-balance-payments-reality Mon, 21 Jul 2025 16:20:16 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/case-china-now-actively-resisting-pressure-yuan-appreciate For a while now the smart take on China’s currency has been that it isn’t really an issue for the Brad W. Setser Follow the Money China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Post Currency Reserves Economics International Finance https://www.cfr.org/blog/case-china-now-actively-resisting-pressure-yuan-appreciate Wed, 16 Jul 2025 15:00:09 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-stealth-trade-surplus China’s trade surplus Brad W. Setser Follow the Money Trade and Investment China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Post European Union International Economics https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-stealth-trade-surplus Mon, 07 Jul 2025 15:32:21 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/time-end-roundtripping-big-pharma Sometimes a news story makes your case for you. Brad W. Setser Follow the Money Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Post Economics Fiscal Policy International Economics Manufacturing https://www.cfr.org/blog/time-end-roundtripping-big-pharma Fri, 20 Jun 2025 12:17:00 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/new-impediment-balance-payments-adjustment-underwater-bonds A few years back, Silicon Valley Bank (and a few other regional banks) got into trouble because t Brad W. Setser Follow the Money RealEcon Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Post Taiwan Currency Reserves Asia International Finance https://www.cfr.org/blog/new-impediment-balance-payments-adjustment-underwater-bonds Tue, 17 Jun 2025 13:13:52 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/dollars-global-role-and-financing-us-external-deficit The U.S. Brad W. Setser Follow the Money Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Banking Post Currency Reserves Economics International Finance https://www.cfr.org/blog/dollars-global-role-and-financing-us-external-deficit Wed, 04 Jun 2025 18:48:54 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/will-europe-stand-us-tariff-threats U.S. Brad W. Setser Follow the Money RealEcon Tariffs Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies United States Trade Europe Post Donald Trump Economics https://www.cfr.org/blog/will-europe-stand-us-tariff-threats Wed, 21 May 2025 15:33:55 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/somewhat-mysterious-surge-chinas-current-account-surplus In the second quarter of 2024, China reported a customs surplus of $250 Billion, a services defic Brad W. Setser China Strategy Initiative Follow the Money Inside China RealEcon China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Trade Post Economics International Finance https://www.cfr.org/blog/somewhat-mysterious-surge-chinas-current-account-surplus Wed, 14 May 2025 19:17:57 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/why-didnt-tariffs-push-us-dollar Two months ago, Scott Bessent, Stephen Miran and conventional macroeconomic analysts all agreed o Brad W. Setser Follow the Money RealEcon Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Trade Post Currency Reserves Economics International Economic Policy International Finance https://www.cfr.org/blog/why-didnt-tariffs-push-us-dollar Wed, 09 Apr 2025 10:34:20 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/american-pharmaceutical-companies-still-arent-paying-tax-us Ex post edit: Actual tax paid in calendar 2024 often differs from provision for Brad W. Setser Follow the Money Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Post Economics Fiscal Policy International Economic Policy International Finance https://www.cfr.org/blog/american-pharmaceutical-companies-still-arent-paying-tax-us Tue, 11 Mar 2025 15:34:58 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/evolution-global-trade-2024 The U.S. trade data for 2024 makes clear that the U.S. Brad W. Setser Follow the Money RealEcon China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Trade Post East Asia International Economics https://www.cfr.org/blog/evolution-global-trade-2024 Tue, 25 Feb 2025 11:47:54 EST Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/xi-making-world-pay-chinas-mistakes It is hardly news that China is an export powerhouse. Brad W. Setser Follow the Money China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Trade Post International Economic Policy Trump https://www.cfr.org/blog/xi-making-world-pay-chinas-mistakes Thu, 20 Feb 2025 14:48:18 EST Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/iphone-imf-and-chinas-balance-payments China’s GDP statistics are widely thought to be, well, works of performance art. Brad W. Setser Follow the Money Inside China China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Trade Post International Economic Policy International Monetary Fund (IMF) https://www.cfr.org/blog/iphone-imf-and-chinas-balance-payments Wed, 19 Feb 2025 12:48:28 EST Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-fx-playbook-december-2024 China’s renminbi appeared to be under pressure in most of December and the first part of January, Brad W. Setser Follow the Money China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Post Currency Reserves International Economic Policy International Finance https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-fx-playbook-december-2024 Thu, 23 Jan 2025 13:22:27 EST Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-stunning-2024-export-growth China’s weak domestic economy and ever expanding production capacity, juiced with an explicit pol Brad W. Setser Follow the Money China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Trade Post International Economic Policy International Finance https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-stunning-2024-export-growth Mon, 16 Dec 2024 19:05:33 EST Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/will-china-take-over-global-auto-industry Massive, and Growing, Capacity China has, Brad W. Setser Follow the Money RealEcon China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Trade Post International Economics Trade War https://www.cfr.org/blog/will-china-take-over-global-auto-industry Thu, 05 Dec 2024 11:53:00 EST Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/why-did-chinas-current-account-surplus-surge-third-quarter China’s reported current account surplus rose from $55 billion in the second quarter of 2024 ($22 Brad W. Setser China Strategy Initiative Follow the Money RealEcon China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Post International Economic Policy International Finance https://www.cfr.org/blog/why-did-chinas-current-account-surplus-surge-third-quarter Tue, 26 Nov 2024 13:13:56 EST Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/us-income-balance-puzzle One of the great puzzles of international economics has been the fact that the U.S. Brad W. Setser Follow the Money RealEcon Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Post Economics Foreign Investment International Finance https://www.cfr.org/blog/us-income-balance-puzzle Mon, 28 Oct 2024 17:18:24 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/surprising-resilience-globalization-examination-claims-economic-fragmentation Globalization continues—the widespread predictions of its death were wildly premature. Brad W. Setser China Strategy Initiative Follow the Money Perspectives RealEcon China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Trade Post Economics International Economic Policy https://www.cfr.org/blog/surprising-resilience-globalization-examination-claims-economic-fragmentation Wed, 16 Oct 2024 16:07:56 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/iphones-outsized-impact-debates-about-chinas-trade-data Almost all iPhones are Brad W. Setser Follow the Money China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Trade Post Ireland International Economics https://www.cfr.org/blog/iphones-outsized-impact-debates-about-chinas-trade-data Fri, 11 Oct 2024 18:36:31 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/beijing-still-has-fiscal-space China’s decision to loosen monetary policy aggressively—and creatively—to support the stock marke Brad W. Setser China Strategy Initiative Follow the Money RealEcon China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Post Fiscal Policy International Economics https://www.cfr.org/blog/beijing-still-has-fiscal-space Fri, 20 Sep 2024 18:07:57 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinese-state-investors-do-not-seem-profit-higher-us-interest-rates Brad W. Setser Follow the Money China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Post Currency Reserves International Economics International Finance https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinese-state-investors-do-not-seem-profit-higher-us-interest-rates Wed, 28 Aug 2024 11:55:52 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/imfs-latest-external-sector-report-misses-mark Every now and again, a major international institution misfires in its analysis. Brad W. Setser Follow the Money RealEcon China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Trade Post Current Account Balance International Monetary Fund (IMF) https://www.cfr.org/blog/imfs-latest-external-sector-report-misses-mark Wed, 14 Aug 2024 18:02:52 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-imaginary-trade-data The most important part of the Brad W. Setser China Strategy Initiative Follow the Money China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Trade Post Current Account Balance International Economics International Monetary Fund (IMF) https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-imaginary-trade-data Wed, 14 Aug 2024 10:59:29 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/what-do-about-liquidity-difficulties-low-income-countries The IMF and World Bank Brad W. Setser Follow the Money Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Post Economics International Finance International Monetary Fund (IMF) Sovereign Debt World Bank https://www.cfr.org/blog/what-do-about-liquidity-difficulties-low-income-countries Mon, 12 Aug 2024 16:57:20 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/spotty-international-tax-record-big-us-technology-companies There was a  saying a few years back that the United States is the one country where you cou Brad W. Setser Follow the Money RealEcon Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Corporate Governance Technology and Innovation Post Economics Fiscal Policy International Finance https://www.cfr.org/blog/spotty-international-tax-record-big-us-technology-companies Thu, 25 Jul 2024 17:22:33 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/american-pharmaceutical-companies-arent-paying-any-tax-united-states This is a joint blog with Michael Weilandt. Brad W. Setser Follow the Money RealEcon Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Pharmaceuticals and Vaccines Post Economics Fiscal Policy International Finance https://www.cfr.org/blog/american-pharmaceutical-companies-arent-paying-any-tax-united-states Thu, 18 Jul 2024 14:09:49 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/sri-lankas-bond-deal-should-not-set-precedent Sri Lanka’s Brad W. Setser Follow the Money RealEcon Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Post Sri Lanka Economics International Finance International Monetary Fund (IMF) Sovereign Debt https://www.cfr.org/blog/sri-lankas-bond-deal-should-not-set-precedent Tue, 16 Jul 2024 11:11:36 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/mobilizing-clean-energy-financing-through-multilateral-development-banks This is a joint post with Tess Turner and Michael Weilandt. Brad W. Setser Follow the Money RealEcon RealEcon Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Development Climate Change Post Energy and Environment International Economics World Bank https://www.cfr.org/blog/mobilizing-clean-energy-financing-through-multilateral-development-banks Thu, 20 Jun 2024 14:37:45 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/estimating-future-interest-income-russias-frozen-reserves This is a joint post with Michael Weilandt. Brad W. Setser Follow the Money RealEcon Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Russia Post Currency Reserves Economics International Economics International Finance https://www.cfr.org/blog/estimating-future-interest-income-russias-frozen-reserves Tue, 28 May 2024 11:04:02 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/power-and-financial-interdependence So long as China runs a large trade surplus, Chinese residents (either the government or Chinese Brad W. Setser Follow the Money RealEcon China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Financial Markets Post Economics International Economic Policy PBOC (People's Bank of China) https://www.cfr.org/blog/power-and-financial-interdependence Wed, 08 May 2024 13:00:20 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-new-currency-peg It is a given in polite economic society that China should move toward a more flexible exchange r Brad W. Setser Follow the Money Capital Flows China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Post Currency Reserves International Finance PBOC (People's Bank of China) https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-new-currency-peg Wed, 10 Apr 2024 16:31:34 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/japanese-bid-foreign-bonds-after-end-yield-curve-control This is a joint blog post with Alex Etra of Brad W. Setser Follow the Money Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Japan Post Bank of Japan (BoJ) Economics International Economic Policy International Finance https://www.cfr.org/blog/japanese-bid-foreign-bonds-after-end-yield-curve-control Mon, 18 Mar 2024 19:38:51 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-record-manufacturing-surplus This is a joint post by Michael Weilandt, Brad W. Setser Follow the Money China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Trade Post International Economics International Finance https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-record-manufacturing-surplus Fri, 08 Mar 2024 12:22:40 EST Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/imf-needs-focus-setting-good-targets-external-debt-sustainability There is no easy solution to the difficulties created by the reality that the Export-Import Bank Brad W. Setser Follow the Money Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Development Post Economics International Economics International Finance International Monetary Fund (IMF) Sovereign Debt https://www.cfr.org/blog/imf-needs-focus-setting-good-targets-external-debt-sustainability Thu, 22 Feb 2024 15:25:13 EST Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-new-currency-playbook There is little doubt that China rather actively managed its currency in 2023. Brad W. Setser Follow the Money China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Post Currency Reserves Current Account Balance Economics International Economic Policy International Finance https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-new-currency-playbook Fri, 02 Feb 2024 14:23:00 EST Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/mobilizing-russias-immobilized-reserves Concerns over the impact of making full use of Russia’s immobilized reserves, on the reserve stat Brad W. Setser Follow the Money Sanctions Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Russia Post Currency Reserves Economics International Economics The War in Ukraine https://www.cfr.org/blog/mobilizing-russias-immobilized-reserves Wed, 31 Jan 2024 12:29:49 EST Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/sdr-linked-bond-can-strengthen-finances-world-bank-group This is a joint post with Stephen Paduano. Brad W. Setser Follow the Money Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Development Post Economics International Economic Policy International Finance World Bank https://www.cfr.org/blog/sdr-linked-bond-can-strengthen-finances-world-bank-group Fri, 12 Jan 2024 13:13:15 EST Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/how-us-and-eu-could-harmonize-their-approaches-trade-evs-and-steel Both the U.S. Brad W. Setser Follow the Money Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Trade Post European Union Economics Industrial Policy https://www.cfr.org/blog/how-us-and-eu-could-harmonize-their-approaches-trade-evs-and-steel Tue, 14 Nov 2023 15:27:43 EST Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-current-account-surplus-likely-much-bigger-reported China’s financial account is interesting, and not well understood. Brad W. Setser Follow the Money China Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Post International Economic Policy International Finance International Monetary Fund (IMF) PBOC (People's Bank of China) https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-current-account-surplus-likely-much-bigger-reported Thu, 09 Nov 2023 14:06:37 EST Follow the Money Brad W. Setser https://www.cfr.org/blog/state-sovereign-debt-restructuring-after-meetings-marrakech The Common Framework is now three years old. Brad W. Setser Follow the Money Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Post Economics International Economics International Finance International Monetary Fund (IMF) Sovereign Debt World Bank https://www.cfr.org/blog/state-sovereign-debt-restructuring-after-meetings-marrakech Tue, 24 Oct 2023 13:33:33 EDT Follow the Money Brad W. Setser