Program Related Publication Feeds

PacNet #44 - Comparative Connections Summaries

Shelley@pacforum.org — Fri, 13 May 2016 00:00:00 -0400

Regional Overview: Déjà Vu All Over Again … Only Worse!

by Ralph A. Cossa and Brad Glosserman

PacNet #43 - U.S.-India Defense Partnership 2.0: Making Good (incrementally) on Strategic Congruence

Shelley@pacforum.org — Thu, 12 May 2016 00:00:00 -0400

Against many odds, Prime Minister Narendra Modi – with capable assists from President Obama – has repaired the US-India strategic equation that had begun to fray during the latter years of his predecessor’s second term in office.

PacNet #42 - Regional strategic challenges and East Asia Summit

Shelley@pacforum.org — Wed, 11 May 2016 00:00:00 -0400

Growing contestation among big powers, mostly between the United States and China, has become a key strategic issue underlining the security environment and architecture in East Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Regional security forums, and the East Asia Summit (EAS) in particular, can help mitigate the negative implications of intensified strategic competition.

PacNet #41 - Philippines’ next president: implications for ASEAN

Shelley@pacforum.org — Tue, 10 May 2016 00:00:00 -0400

Filipinos went to the polls on May 9, 2016 to elect a new president. All indications point to the victory of the maverick, front-runner candidate Rodrigo Duterte, a long-time mayor of Davao city in the southern Philippines island of Mindanao.

PacNet #40 - Endorse the 1992 Consensus, Ms. Tsai

Shelley@pacforum.org — Thu, 05 May 2016 00:00:00 -0400

Following Ma Ying-jeou’s election as president of the Republic of China (Taiwan) in 2008, Taiwan endorsed the “1992 Consensus.” Under this arrangement, both Taiwan and the Chinese mainland accept the principle of “one China,” but each side holds its own interpretation of what that means.

PacNet #39 - The Asian Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: conditional collaboration?

Shelley@pacforum.org — Wed, 04 May 2016 00:00:00 -0400

Creation of the Chinese-sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has won considerable attention in many capitals, particularly in Washington and Tokyo. Some view the establishment of the AIIB as a challenge to the supremacy of the post-World War II Bretton Woods order. Others see it as a symbol of shifting regional power in Asia.

PacNet #37 - Case for “enlightened realism”: reconciliation as an imperative task for regional peace and stability

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Wed, 20 Apr 2016 00:00:00 -0400

“History problems” have become a thorny issue that generates suspicion among Northeast Asian countries. Debates over wartime history intertwined with territorial disputes have inflamed nationalistic sentiment and prevented pragmatic diplomatic solutions.

PacNet #38 - Not this time, Mr. President

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Wed, 20 Apr 2016 00:00:00 -0400

Japanese Foreign Minister Kishida Fumio and US Secretary of State John Kerry co-orchestrated the Group of Seven (G-7) foreign ministerial talks in Hiroshima, Kishida’s hometown. Kerry stressed the importance of the international cooperation pushed by the Obama administration in a press conference.

PacNet #35R - Response to PacNet #35 "Rescind China's invitation to join RIMPAC"

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Tue, 19 Apr 2016 00:00:00 -0400

Shirley Kan’s “Rescind China’s invitation to join RIMPAC” (PacNet #35) offers a thought-provoking recommendation on dealing with China’s increasingly belligerent strategic behavior.

PacNet #36 - Note to Washington: enjoy Abe while you have him

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Mon, 18 Apr 2016 00:00:00 -0400

Shinzo Abe will not be Japan’s prime minister forever, and once he leaves office he might just be missed.

PacNet #35 - Rescind China's invitation to join RIMPAC

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Thu, 14 Apr 2016 00:00:00 -0400

Hawaii’s Rep. Mark Takai has objected to China’s participation at the 2016 Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise based at Pearl Harbor. Takai also would amend the FY2017 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) to bar China if its invitation is not revoked by the Pentagon.

PacNet #34 - China to enhance its role in Myanmar’s peace process

Shelley@pacforum.org — Wed, 06 Apr 2016 00:00:00 -0400

Five days after the inauguration of the National League of Democracy (NLD) government, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Myanmar at the invitation of party head Aung San Suu Kyi. Knowing that the peace process will be a top priority for the new government, China is assumed to have put forth proposals on how Beijing can play a larger, more positive role in ethnic reconciliation.

PacNet #33 - Japan’s security policy under Abe: much ado about almost nothing

Shelley@pacforum.org — Thu, 31 Mar 2016 00:00:00 -0400

Japan’s Prime Minister Abe Shinzo has been able to reorient his country’s security policy. The defense budget has been increasing since 2013, for the first time in a decade. The ban on arms exports has been loosened, allowing Japan to export defense items and technologies for the first time in 40 years.

PacNet #32 - How China sees THAAD

Shelley@pacforum.org — Wed, 30 Mar 2016 00:00:00 -0400

On Feb. 7, the United States and South Korea decided to begin official discussions on deploying the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system on the Korean Peninsula.

PacNet #31 - To understand China’s economic signals, start with the Four Comprehensives

Shelley@pacforum.org — Tue, 29 Mar 2016 00:00:00 -0400

The recent drama surrounding China’s economy reveals contradictions in the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) monetary and fiscal management policies.

PacNet #30 - A pragmatic public: observations of Japan’s 2016 Public Opinion Survey on Diplomacy

Shelley@pacforum.org — Tue, 22 Mar 2016 00:00:00 -0400

As controversy swirls around the security policies of the Abe Shinzo government, the Japanese public remains a stabilizing force in foreign policy.

PacNet #29 - Obama’s recent China policy – more resolve, rising tension

Shelley@pacforum.org — Mon, 21 Mar 2016 00:00:00 -0400

Anticipated positive interaction between President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the nuclear summit in Washington on Mar. 31-Apr. 1 probably will not change Obama’s more resolute approach to the challenges the Xi administration has posed to US interests.

PacNet #28 - Philippines v. China arbitration: be careful what you wish for

Shelley@pacforum.org — Thu, 17 Mar 2016 00:00:00 -0400

Sometime in late-spring/early-summer, an arbitral tribunal constituted under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) will issue a highly-awaited final ruling on a Filipino protestation that China’s maritime claims – and actions in defense of those claims – in the South China Sea are contrary to UNCLOS and thereby a violation of the Philippines’ sover

PacNet #27 - Principles for planning a US alliance with a unified Korea

Shelley@pacforum.org — Mon, 14 Mar 2016 00:00:00 -0400

North Korea’s fourth nuclear test this past January and its long-range missile launch in February underscore the fact that the reclusive regime remains, in the words of Secretary of Defense Ash Carter, an “up close, dangerous, and continuing threat to the security of the Peninsula and the region.” Pyongyang’s actions highlight the role of the US-ROK alliance in deterring

PacNet #26 - Crisis on the Korean Peninsula: time for “Plan B”?

Shelley@pacforum.org — Fri, 11 Mar 2016 00:00:00 -0500

The Korean Peninsula remains technically at war, and military confrontations are a constant source of instability for the wider region. Recently, the security situation has further deteriorated after North Korea conducted a fourth nuclear test and tested an ICBM, calling it a satellite launch.

PacNet #25 - Replacing Armistice Agreement with Peace Agreement is the best way for ensuring peace

Shelley@pacforum.org — Thu, 10 Mar 2016 00:00:00 -0500

This article provides a DPRK perspective. While readers may find fault with many of its arguments and points of view (as do we), it is published to provide our readership with insights into how the DPRK sees the current situation.

PacNet #24 - Mahathir & Anwar vs Najib: how will it end?

Shelley@pacforum.org — Tue, 08 Mar 2016 00:00:00 -0500

The unthinkable is happening in Malaysian politics. It is triggered by the deepest political crisis the country has ever known, at the center of which is Prime Minister Najib Razak.

PacNet #23 - Australia’s 2016 Defense White Paper: forward funded defense

Shelley@pacforum.org — Tue, 01 Mar 2016 00:00:00 -0500

If one word can sum up the 2016 Australian Defense White Paper (DWP 2016), it is “forward.” The document is more “forward” than its predecessors in terms of projected funding commitments and the dizzying time-scales and costs involved in delivering complex platforms like submarines and frigates.

PacNet #22 - ADMM-dialogue partners informal meetings as a source of regional stability

Shelley@pacforum.org — Thu, 25 Feb 2016 00:00:00 -0500

Defense diplomacy efforts led by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have advanced significantly since the inaugural ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) in 2006. A development that has recently gained prominence is the ADMM’s engagement with individual dialogue partners.

PacNet #11A - Australia’s submarine decision: a matter of grand strategy

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Tue, 23 Feb 2016 00:00:00 -0500

Australia’s future submarine program is the largest and most complex defense procurement in the nation’s history. The decision as to which submarine to choose has become one of grand strategy with far-reaching economic, political, and strategic consequences.

PacNet #21 - Taiwanese presidential transitions need less turbulence

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Thu, 18 Feb 2016 00:00:00 -0500

Tsai Ing-wen and the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) historic victory last month was largely driven by domestic political and economic concerns, but brings with it significant geopolitical implications.

PacNet #20 - South Korea’s big strategic bet to rein in North Korea

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Tue, 16 Feb 2016 00:00:00 -0500

In US presidential politics, a candidate suspending their campaign means that they are dropping out of the race.

PacNet #19 - A tipping point for the Mekong

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Fri, 12 Feb 2016 00:00:00 -0500

The Mekong River is, by any measure, an extraordinary river.

PacNet #18 - The current and future of Vietnam – US defense relations

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Thu, 11 Feb 2016 00:00:00 -0500

Since the two countries established diplomatic relations in 1995, defense ties between Vietnam and the United States have been based on three pillars. The first is the overall positive framework of Vietnam-US relations, which created a favorable platform for the development of defense relations (especially with the establishment of the Comprehensive Partnership in July 2013).

PacNet #17 - China’s resurgence and its effects on transatlantic relations

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Wed, 10 Feb 2016 00:00:00 -0500

China’s resurgence, particularly since the turn of the century, has had global repercussions, as any number of studies of this phenomenon attest. The longer-term implications for one of the most significant coalitions in global history – transatlantic relations – are potentially profound, and potentially profoundly disruptive.

PacNet #14R - Response to PacNet #14 “The Japan-Korea comfort women deal: this is only the beginning”

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Tue, 09 Feb 2016 00:00:00 -0500

I concur with most of the points in “The Japan-Korea comfort women deal: this is only the beginning” by Scott Snyder and Brad Glosserman. Let me add several points to clarify this complex issue.

PacNet #16 - North Korea missile launch: what comes next?

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Mon, 08 Feb 2016 00:00:00 -0500

A month and a day after conducting its fourth nuclear test, North Korea launched a multi-stage rocket carrying a 440-pound satellite. The launch of the Taepodong missile defied a United Nations ban, once again placing North Korea in direct defiance of international norms.

PacNet #10A-R - Response to PacNet #10A “What is North Korea up to with its fourth nuclear test?”

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Thu, 04 Feb 2016 00:00:00 -0500

James Przystup (Przystupj@ndu.edu) is a Senior Fellow at the National Defense University Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).

PacNet #15 - The threat to China’s security isn’t THAAD, it’s North Korea

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Wed, 03 Feb 2016 00:00:00 -0500

With North Korea’s Jan.

PacNet #14 - The Japan-Korea comfort women deal: this is only the beginning

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Mon, 01 Feb 2016 00:00:00 -0500

The cycle of negativity surrounding Japan-South Korea relations since the Abe-Park era began in early 2013 has at times eclipsed North Korea as a source of angst among observers of Northeast Asia.

PacNet #13R - Response to PacNet #13 “Here we go again!”

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Mon, 01 Feb 2016 00:00:00 -0500

Winston Lord served as president of the Council on Foreign relations, US ambassador to China, and assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. He responded via the Nelson Report, which had kindly reprinted PacNet #13.

PacNet #13 - Here We Go Again!

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Fri, 29 Jan 2016 00:00:00 -0500

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.

PacNet #12 - Alliance maintenance in the Turnbull Era: a good driver isn’t everything

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Thu, 28 Jan 2016 00:00:00 -0500

Commentary in Australia since Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s inaugural visit to Washington last week has focused, naturally enough, on the dynamic that a new leader brings to the alliance.

PacNet #11 -- Domestic interests and “strategic benefits” in Australia-Japan submarine deal

galmeida — Wed, 27 Jan 2016 00:00:00 -0500

Prime Minister Abe Shinzo continues to lead Japan’s effort to sell subs to Australia, pushing the Soryu-class submarines in his Dec. 18, 2015 meeting with Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.

PacNet #10 - Never say never

galmeida — Mon, 25 Jan 2016 00:00:00 -0500

North Korea’s fourth nuclear test surprised a lot of people. That surprise unleashed the notion that Kim Jong Un is erratic, a loose cannon with no advisers who might counsel restraint because they have all been kicked aside or died. If that were true, one might wonder about the North’s first two nuclear tests, which took place under Kim Jong Il.

PacNet #10A -- What is North Korea up to with its fourth nuclear test?

galmeida — Mon, 25 Jan 2016 00:00:00 -0500

There have been three North Korean nuclear tests since 2009; they were primarily aimed at influencing the United States, together with its allies, South Korea and Japan, to change their North Korea policies. The fourth and latest test on Jan.

PacNet #9 - Keep the diplomatic truce!

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Thu, 21 Jan 2016 00:00:00 -0500

Some fear that Taiwan’s presidential election may usher in another period of cross-strait tension and hostility. Beijing might steal most if not all of Taipei’s diplomatic allies and otherwise seek to bully the island in the international community. This is not a certainty, however; it is still possible for relations to move forward.

PacNet #8 - The Taiwan elections: don't expect a US policy change

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Wed, 20 Jan 2016 00:00:00 -0500

The Jan. 16 Taiwan elections mark a major transition in political leadership away from President Ma Ying-jeou's policy of accommodation of and closer integration with China.

PacNet #7 - Islamic State branches in Southeast Asia

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Tue, 19 Jan 2016 00:00:00 -0500

The so-called Islamic State (IS) is likely to create IS branches in the Philippines and Indonesia in 2016. Although the Indonesian military pre-empted IS plans to declare a satellite state of the “caliphate” in eastern Indonesia, IS is determined to declare such an entity in at least one part of Southeast Asia.

Comparative Connections v.17 n.3 - US-China

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Fri, 15 Jan 2016 00:00:00 -0500

Despite growing friction between the US and China, Xi Jinping’s visit to the US in September was mostly positive and produced important outcomes. Tensions persisted in the South China Sea with China unwilling to stop its construction and militarization of terraformed reefs.

Comparative Connections v.17 n.3 - China-Korea

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Fri, 15 Jan 2016 00:00:00 -0500

The September China-ROK summit in Beijing catalyzed the resumption of trilateral talks with Japan in October and the launch of the China-ROK Free Trade Agreement in December.

PacNet #6 - Comparative Connections summaries

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Fri, 15 Jan 2016 00:00:00 -0500

The January 2016 issue of Comparative Connections is available at http://csis.org/program/comparative-connections.

Regional Overview: Summits Galore, But (Mostly) Business as Usual by Ralph A. Cossa and Brad Glosserman

PacNet #5 - Challenges for the US in Northeast Asia

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Wed, 13 Jan 2016 00:00:00 -0500

Northeast Asia invariably poses tricky problems for US policymakers: 2016 will prove no exception. Longstanding issues will continue to fester, and even recent successes may prove problematic. The overlay of a US election campaign will provide its usual complications. While the landscape may look familiar, rarely have the uncertainties consumed all the countries of the region at the same time.

PacNet #4 - North Korea vexes US presidential candidates

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Mon, 11 Jan 2016 00:00:00 -0500

North Korea’s claim of a successful H-bomb test provided an opportunity for the US presidential candidates to demonstrate their expertise on a major policy issue about which they all should have been well-briefed by their handlers. Unfortunately for the country they aspire to lead, their initial comments were less than impressive.

PacNet #3 - China's “undeterred” strategy on the South China Sea: a “challenge” for the US

Jesslyn@pacforum.org — Thu, 07 Jan 2016 00:00:00 -0500

Recent events related to the South China Sea (SCS) reveal Chinese thinking about its maritime strategy in that important area. First, China believes that establishing sub-regional hegemony is achievable.