tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-100049772024-03-14T20:01:31.891-04:00Calculated RiskFinance and EconomicsCalculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.comBlogger32460125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-84435972726121807772024-03-14T20:01:00.005-04:002024-03-14T20:01:00.133-04:00Friday: NY Fed Mfg, Industrial Production<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_YWaCpsf_p8v62YtdyA82RIFmQGI4biufG-CGAhuLr-igjteFugcKOhj3KKXw6TxkLGsfxKSpqUooaAAsBE4fV16LA59UoVwEes7tr0JK4uqPSnoEFqHMfQ3859wkdZpOtvwLRmncwgyW1a_B9bngg2EGkQYpSVXRHwsyd_CUS1xlSJ6VLNvo/s396/RatesMar142024.PNG"><img alt="Mortgage Rates" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_YWaCpsf_p8v62YtdyA82RIFmQGI4biufG-CGAhuLr-igjteFugcKOhj3KKXw6TxkLGsfxKSpqUooaAAsBE4fV16LA59UoVwEes7tr0JK4uqPSnoEFqHMfQ3859wkdZpOtvwLRmncwgyW1a_B9bngg2EGkQYpSVXRHwsyd_CUS1xlSJ6VLNvo/s320/RatesMar142024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /> </a>Note: Mortgage rates are from <a href="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/">MortgageNewsDaily.com</a> and are for top tier scenarios.<br />
<br />
Friday:<br />
• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed <b>Empire State manufacturing survey</b> for March. The consensus is for a reading of -8.0, down from -2.4.<br />
<br />
• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release <b>Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization</b> for February. The consensus is no changed in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 78.4%.<br />
<br />
• At 10:00 AM, <b>University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index</b> (Preliminary for March).Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-62225747481840238782024-03-14T14:21:00.001-04:002024-03-14T14:21:00.173-04:00Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 21.7% YoY; New Listings up 15.8% YoY<b>What this means:</b> On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com <a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/february-2024-data/">reported</a> inventory was up 14.8% YoY, but still down almost 40% compared to February 2019. <div><br /></div><div> Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 21.7% YoY.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/data/">Realtor.com</a> has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: <a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-mar-9-2024/">Weekly Housing Trends View—Data Week Ending March 9, 2024</a><blockquote>• <b>Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 21.7% above year-ago levels.</b> For an 18th straight week, active listings registered above the prior-year level, which means that today’s home shoppers see more for-sale homes. In fact, the February Realtor.com Housing Trends Report showed that 2024 had the most abundant level of inventory since 2020, and inventory held relatively steady relative to January, counter to the typical monthly trend over the past four years. Nevertheless, the number of homes on the market is still down nearly 40% compared with what was typical in 2017 to 2019.<br />
<br />
• <b>New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week, by 15.8% from one year ago.</b> For the 20th consecutive week, newly listed homes have surpassed levels from a year ago.</blockquote><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM0YqeAJ4qDu0OEby16XK7EsHj_H57FfbwKKdcQiQ6VwmlzLaz731lNxCvbhIzwRwvTkSQEa8G9LKWZxKeI9vvO1OzJM8dy-_VA83is4ABeO8jqkXJOo4uz09zJ4EF4hxnMdMsLGVG-hYIbMnohBPLaAqQYAQClXPh6ErTmq-DC96NDxCSaG0s/s1012/RealtorMar142024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Realtor YoY Active Listings" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM0YqeAJ4qDu0OEby16XK7EsHj_H57FfbwKKdcQiQ6VwmlzLaz731lNxCvbhIzwRwvTkSQEa8G9LKWZxKeI9vvO1OzJM8dy-_VA83is4ABeO8jqkXJOo4uz09zJ4EF4hxnMdMsLGVG-hYIbMnohBPLaAqQYAQClXPh6ErTmq-DC96NDxCSaG0s/s320/RealtorMar142024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to <a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/data/">realtor.com</a>. <br />
<br />Inventory was up year-over-year for the 18th consecutive week following 20 consecutive weeks with a YoY decrease in inventory. <div><br /></div><div>Inventory is still historically very low.</div><div><br /></div><div>Although new listings remain below "typical pre-pandemic levels", new listings are now up YoY for the 20th consecutive week.</div> </div> Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-17990546839895152242024-03-14T11:10:00.001-04:002024-03-14T11:10:58.485-04:00Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-2-current-state-of-the-housing-7d4">Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024</a><br />
<br />A brief excerpt: <blockquote>Yesterday, in <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-1-current-state-of-the-housing-332">Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024</a> I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales.<br />
<br />
In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more - and review the house price outlook for 2024.<br />
...<br />
Other measures of house prices suggest prices will be up a little further YoY in the January Case-Shiller index. The <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existing-home-sales-increased-4b5">NAR reported</a> median prices were up 5.1% YoY in January, up from 4.1% YoY in December. ICE reported prices were up 5.6% YoY in January, and <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-increased-edb">Freddie Mac reported</a> house prices were up 6.2% YoY in January, down from 6.3% YoY in December.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihrw3nMxNMzv7T6JHcnYABApmX705QSPJn12MhuqN-3cE1WOXZf1WPJwB7z_dis0I5TGhyH6ObdLVG4GYPhhjwVje3QDfty6Z83BG0l6tyVW30PU_FMGjWqA9RS_f-doNI0HgrDbcLszyPGiK1FtCguruW5VYIj-SGXJ6QFtHNF2gFg_UUJZ9i/s928/CSNARFreddieJan2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Freddie Case-Shiller NAR House Prices" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihrw3nMxNMzv7T6JHcnYABApmX705QSPJn12MhuqN-3cE1WOXZf1WPJwB7z_dis0I5TGhyH6ObdLVG4GYPhhjwVje3QDfty6Z83BG0l6tyVW30PU_FMGjWqA9RS_f-doNI0HgrDbcLszyPGiK1FtCguruW5VYIj-SGXJ6QFtHNF2gFg_UUJZ9i/s320/CSNARFreddieJan2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.<br />
<br />
The FMHPI and the NAR median prices appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. Based on recent monthly data, and the FMHPI, <b>the YoY change in the Case-Shiller index will likely increase a little further in the report for January</b>.</blockquote>There is much more in the article.<br />
<br /><center><iframe frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/embed" style="background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;" width="480"></iframe></center>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-45706549595275193412024-03-14T08:35:00.035-04:002024-03-14T08:46:59.372-04:00Retail Sales Increased 0.6% in FebruaryOn a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.6% from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 1.5 percent from February 2023.<br />
<br />
From the Census Bureau <a href="https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html">report</a>:<br />
<blockquote>Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $700.7 billion, <b>up 0.6 percent from the previous month</b>, and up 1.5 percent above February 2023. ... The December 2023 to January 2024 percent change was revised from down 0.8 percent to down 1.1 percent.<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfGVZMP7VGLNJMOPpdyPlmlyv9dVJwOaL2UEaynawiNYwyJAaSRTf2rr8ueJJMRZ2irC9wFOWIONY4_qSbeWytAFqRMz-3jNSp_sHUF2LyESTf4hiPyeaHmOkwL-IPsL9vudY5dvaFgf1MgmA1i4ZB5KoBgGcsYdZFjd2KOF8HGEohMeuarGL8/s1042/RetailFeb2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Retail Sales" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfGVZMP7VGLNJMOPpdyPlmlyv9dVJwOaL2UEaynawiNYwyJAaSRTf2rr8ueJJMRZ2irC9wFOWIONY4_qSbeWytAFqRMz-3jNSp_sHUF2LyESTf4hiPyeaHmOkwL-IPsL9vudY5dvaFgf1MgmA1i4ZB5KoBgGcsYdZFjd2KOF8HGEohMeuarGL8/s320/RetailFeb2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a> <i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).<br />
<br />
Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.6% in February.<br />
<br />
The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.<br />
<br />
Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 2.0% on a YoY basis.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwDez_XsOGrl2-RdZkyyLu3V5INA3Xsu1arO1bEONGRe4YbndBEjQzzh0i_lY8n-dreyHCvCKvyKPhEPQVNLMPVGfvNXVUie0yLwlFxVPTTIbxCdDnSSqnS1vkQI2PXUBI48kHdu0Ei3Svz88IczQcg1WEGW-4VTeLZ-PkdbWq78HNm3E4kzdg/s989/RetailYoYFeb2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Year-over-year change in Retail Sales" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwDez_XsOGrl2-RdZkyyLu3V5INA3Xsu1arO1bEONGRe4YbndBEjQzzh0i_lY8n-dreyHCvCKvyKPhEPQVNLMPVGfvNXVUie0yLwlFxVPTTIbxCdDnSSqnS1vkQI2PXUBI48kHdu0Ei3Svz88IczQcg1WEGW-4VTeLZ-PkdbWq78HNm3E4kzdg/s320/RetailYoYFeb2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>
The increase in sales in February was above expectations, however, sales in December and January were revised down.Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-20710392148614767842024-03-14T08:30:00.012-04:002024-03-14T08:34:57.237-04:00Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 209,000The DOL <a href="https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf">reported</a>:<br />
<blockquote>
In the week ending March 9, the advance figure for <b>seasonally adjusted initial claims was 209,000</b>, a decrease of 1,000
from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 7,000 from 217,000 to 210,000.
The 4-week moving average was 208,000, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous
week's average was revised down by 3,750 from 212,250 to 208,500.<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPMw4hnG4H3n_g-gb-XwNTug28g7q2KzGO-F4Lx7uunycdiclWDEQNFW0UsIK2K2h_sCic79oK-aJeHMMf5PIQSkSRZ_8A2vvVOOoYJvxSvUE2Ibxq5Xto87MTQ2djHESfHwEl0suYRHqD_2fywI_US3u2rmK5jXpvCcrMzpRPA6gMjw4IBvgp/s1076/WeeklyClaimsMar142024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPMw4hnG4H3n_g-gb-XwNTug28g7q2KzGO-F4Lx7uunycdiclWDEQNFW0UsIK2K2h_sCic79oK-aJeHMMf5PIQSkSRZ_8A2vvVOOoYJvxSvUE2Ibxq5Xto87MTQ2djHESfHwEl0suYRHqD_2fywI_US3u2rmK5jXpvCcrMzpRPA6gMjw4IBvgp/s320/WeeklyClaimsMar142024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />
The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 208,000.<br />
<br />
The previous week was revised down.<br />
<br />
Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-16617580116513871262024-03-13T20:03:00.001-04:002024-03-13T20:03:00.131-04:00Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, PPI<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8xWnFMiIszUN34FJFnTI2Yz0ENC5MQ965WDRYlmZ5yGgOxGQ5nHxSUHobtL7UPCWltetvLTkfoRmQxgkfFtsn_Is5wAIzS7Xn-Q4JRyJp-h5rVjQy6QdJo7maHAn_L0mTy9kUOKwffX25WEvGNi2x1D_-rWWB1VF9K784mElM1JHPscxKbeNJ/s393/RatesMar132024.PNG"><img alt="Mortgage Rates" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8xWnFMiIszUN34FJFnTI2Yz0ENC5MQ965WDRYlmZ5yGgOxGQ5nHxSUHobtL7UPCWltetvLTkfoRmQxgkfFtsn_Is5wAIzS7Xn-Q4JRyJp-h5rVjQy6QdJo7maHAn_L0mTy9kUOKwffX25WEvGNi2x1D_-rWWB1VF9K784mElM1JHPscxKbeNJ/s320/RatesMar132024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /> </a>Note: Mortgage rates are from <a href="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/">MortgageNewsDaily.com</a> and are for top tier scenarios.<br />
<br />
Thursday:<br />
• At 8:30 AM ET, The <b>initial weekly unemployment claims</b> report will be released. The consensus is for 221 thousand initial claims, up from 217 thousand last week.<br />
<br />
• At 8:30 AM, <b>Retail sales</b> for February is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in retail sales.<br />
<br />
• At 8:30 AM, The <b>Producer Price Index for February</b> from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-68515900124649455012024-03-13T14:46:00.001-04:002024-03-13T14:46:26.457-04:00Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-1-current-state-of-the-housing-332">Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024</a><br />
<br />A brief excerpt: <blockquote>This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.<br />
<br />
I always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inventory-will-tell-the-tale-dbb">tells the tale</a>!<br />
...<br />
Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s <a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/february-2024-data/">February 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report</a> showing new listings were up 11.3% year-over-year in February. This is still well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyWshQM4fjmlkS0fsEeX4UN7bROTXW2gqswqwX-goJLqjw9GrjLgd8s73jl2F_XjTzGapHqjrZRDOutd7mdS_N7W91SkwLFzeZhwOqnUN2_Fk6y8_VNshm5EMgk2FpvvMcvTtGyk9b2MBYOWFQTj3umSOQkhvfUuxO6u-pU8ijDMBS_2bQv7ii/s850/RealtorNewFeb2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="New Listings" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyWshQM4fjmlkS0fsEeX4UN7bROTXW2gqswqwX-goJLqjw9GrjLgd8s73jl2F_XjTzGapHqjrZRDOutd7mdS_N7W91SkwLFzeZhwOqnUN2_Fk6y8_VNshm5EMgk2FpvvMcvTtGyk9b2MBYOWFQTj3umSOQkhvfUuxO6u-pU8ijDMBS_2bQv7ii/s320/RealtorNewFeb2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><blockquote>However, providing a boost to overall inventory, sellers turned out in higher numbers this February as newly listed homes were 11.3% above last year’s levels. This marked the fourth month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of decline.</blockquote>Note the seasonality for new listings. <b>December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings, followed by February and November</b>. New listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but we will have to wait for the March and April data to see how close new listings are to normal levels.<br />
<br />
There are always people that need to sell due to the so-called 3 D’s: Death, Divorce, and Disease. Also, in certain times, some homeowners will need to sell due to unemployment or excessive debt (neither is much of an issue right now).<br />
<br />
And there are homeowners who want to sell for a number of reasons: upsizing (more babies), downsizing, moving for a new job, or moving to a nicer home or location (move-up buyers). It is some of the “want to sell” group that has been locked in with the golden handcuffs over the last couple of years, since it is financially difficult to move when your current mortgage rate is around 3%, and your new mortgage rate will be in the 6 1/2% to 7% range. <br />
<br />
But time is a factor for this “want to sell” group, and eventually some of them will take the plunge. That is probably why we are seeing more new listings now.</blockquote>There is much more in the article.<br />
<br /><center><iframe frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/embed" style="background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;" width="480"></iframe></center> Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3855198210262886702024-03-13T09:40:00.001-04:002024-03-13T09:40:34.550-04:00Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REOToday, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/q4-update-delinquencies-foreclosures-8df">Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO</a><br />
<br />A brief excerpt: <blockquote>I’ve argued repeatedly that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble). The two key reasons are mortgage lending has been solid, and most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes..<br />
...<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLAZkDNFgFW_QzhzSo1QvBCxRf_FZ-CJ5VMRZUCrKCtvPeeZnALMcJ7weBBKC2hqnnUTLRfOioF-EWl34gl1UF7X_L2oMrJBC8f9oPkhnek37dXB24turAA5W8Unsh2_b1GiSUv54Eay_s-3nYLZKYsMGeoNlcTBgittcDt0wb-BeGQWCoiaSj/s875/FHFAInterestRateQ32023.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="FHFA Percent Mortgage Rate First Lien" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLAZkDNFgFW_QzhzSo1QvBCxRf_FZ-CJ5VMRZUCrKCtvPeeZnALMcJ7weBBKC2hqnnUTLRfOioF-EWl34gl1UF7X_L2oMrJBC8f9oPkhnek37dXB24turAA5W8Unsh2_b1GiSUv54Eay_s-3nYLZKYsMGeoNlcTBgittcDt0wb-BeGQWCoiaSj/s320/FHFAInterestRateQ32023.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>And on mortgage rates, here is some data from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q3 2023 (Q4 2023 data will be released in a two weeks). <br />
<br />This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic. Currently 22.6% of loans are under 3%, 59.4% are under 4%, and 78.7% are under 5%.<br />
<br />
<b>With substantial equity, and low mortgage rates (mostly at a fixed rates), few homeowners will have financial difficulties</b>. </blockquote>There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/">https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/</a> Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-78215784788800643052024-03-13T07:00:00.016-04:002024-03-13T07:00:00.139-04:00MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly SurveyFrom the MBA: <a href="https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/newsroom">Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey</a><blockquote>Mortgage applications increased 7.1 percent from one
week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week ending March 8, 2024.<br />
<br />
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.1 percent on
a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 8
percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 12 percent from the previous
week and was 5 percent higher than the same week one year ago. <b>The seasonally adjusted Purchase
Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier</b>. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent
compared with the previous week and was <b>11 percent lower than the same week one year ago</b>.<br />
<br />
“Mortgage rates dropped below 7 percent last week for most loan types because of incoming economic
data showing a weaker service sector and a less robust job market, with an increase in the
unemployment rate and downward revisions to job growth in prior months,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s
SVP and Chief Economist. “Purchase application volume increased for the week but remains about 11
percent below last year’s level. By contrast, refinance volume picked up by 12 percent, with a larger,
24 percent increase in the government refinance index. While these percentage increases are large, the
level of refinance activity remains quite low, and we expect that most of this activity reflects borrowers
who took out a loan at or near the peak of rates in the past two years.”
<br />
...<br />
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances
($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.84 percent from 7.02 percent, with points decreasing to 0.65 from 0.67
(including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHrf-ey0xh1xqrtPmvpz3Seo4O1J1BkJXgEvYjWWOU9GsuvildHl6zTaezrzJI0AcRSWMtaZXSk8FAqHnoqHrWJZemlVXLUEL051dBvQ7d_8L7TVZKqdK_-9h0AvSsBW496xJnQxNN2YGPf0woBiCcrqJdf4ZTSzRZVviFp5C_PalcEyh4Jqo5/s1089/MBAMar132024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Mortgage Purchase Index" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHrf-ey0xh1xqrtPmvpz3Seo4O1J1BkJXgEvYjWWOU9GsuvildHl6zTaezrzJI0AcRSWMtaZXSk8FAqHnoqHrWJZemlVXLUEL051dBvQ7d_8L7TVZKqdK_-9h0AvSsBW496xJnQxNN2YGPf0woBiCcrqJdf4ZTSzRZVviFp5C_PalcEyh4Jqo5/s320/MBAMar132024.PNG" style="border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.<br />
<br />
According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 11% year-over-year unadjusted. <div><b><br /></b></div><div>Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly). </div><div><br /></div><div>Purchase application activity is up slightly from the lows in late October 2023, and below the lowest levels during the housing bust. <b><br /></b><br /></div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxVR0UUGVbfO_XHKXJ2tJoGtqOPwmVO8-QPaSxXw9nFQ6NxaMYdOe9GcBCeGW8lOZW12KftzrWp4DBzw3IzrNix6XRDjPdIk97ZSAA94JNl83Xwb8eb1r1KWyMFzdc26aqgU_eZ6dq7ISpp3eMdG27OFSYDbgYkDDLgRoZUiyzFPHHIZPgJlhc/s1085/MBARefiMar132024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Mortgage Refinance Index" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxVR0UUGVbfO_XHKXJ2tJoGtqOPwmVO8-QPaSxXw9nFQ6NxaMYdOe9GcBCeGW8lOZW12KftzrWp4DBzw3IzrNix6XRDjPdIk97ZSAA94JNl83Xwb8eb1r1KWyMFzdc26aqgU_eZ6dq7ISpp3eMdG27OFSYDbgYkDDLgRoZUiyzFPHHIZPgJlhc/s320/MBARefiMar132024.PNG" style="border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><div>The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.<br />
<br /><div>With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and has mostly flatlined since then.</div></div> Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-77303151381061195552024-03-12T20:10:00.001-04:002024-03-12T20:10:00.132-04:00Wednesday: Mortgage Applications<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHfdLb1FQXmeaYXtNPts7Qek5j22ojWRrMAmDzV671R-eCzqbmw6nLRVMP-l8Csz3nh_MJWfrikZ32FPE3GhlRygBkMhAM3d_aGR4VEPhGQdPQxJQTBl3-nVuiGhCM_93audXTDOhOeW8UwrfLpEc6rxv1PjW5a_CCmpMn384b7s0kpeTsQwSq/s394/RatesMar122024.PNG"><img alt="Mortgage Rates" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHfdLb1FQXmeaYXtNPts7Qek5j22ojWRrMAmDzV671R-eCzqbmw6nLRVMP-l8Csz3nh_MJWfrikZ32FPE3GhlRygBkMhAM3d_aGR4VEPhGQdPQxJQTBl3-nVuiGhCM_93audXTDOhOeW8UwrfLpEc6rxv1PjW5a_CCmpMn384b7s0kpeTsQwSq/s320/RatesMar122024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /> </a>Note: Mortgage rates are from <a href="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/">MortgageNewsDaily.com</a> and are for top tier scenarios.<br />
<br />
Wednesday:<br />
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the <b>mortgage purchase applications index</b>.Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6960699499032437062024-03-12T15:27:00.004-04:002024-03-12T15:27:52.701-04:00Favorable Weather Boosted Employment by About 100,000 in February<div>The BLS reported <a href="https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/03/february-employment-report-275-thousand.html">275 thousand non-farm jobs</a> were added in February. During the Winter months, I like to look at the weather impact on the report.</div><div><br /></div><div>The BLS reported 243 thousand people were employed in non-agriculture industries, with a job, but not at work due to bad weather. The average for February over the previous 10 years was 368 thousand (median 272 thousand), so fewer people than normal were impacted by bad weather.<br />
<br />
The BLS also reported 633 thousand people that are usually full-time employees were working part time in February due to bad weather. The average for February over the previous 10 years was 1.55 million (the median was 694 thousand). This series suggests weather positively impacted employment more than usual.<br />
<br />
The San Francisco Fed estimates <a href="https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/weather-adjusted-employment-change/">Weather-Adjusted Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (monthly change, seasonally adjusted)</a>. They use local area weather to estimate the impact on employment. For February, <b>the San Francisco Fed estimated that weather boosted employment by about 100 thousand jobs</b>.</div>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-66327065126855804672024-03-12T12:47:00.001-04:002024-03-12T12:47:41.855-04:002nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February; Inventory Continues to Surge in FloridaToday, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-e66">2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February</a><br />
<br />A brief excerpt: <blockquote>NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to February 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).<br />
<br />
This is the second look at several local markets in February. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.<br />
<br />
Closed sales in February were mostly for contracts signed in December and January when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.82% and 6.64%, respectively. This is down from the 7%+ mortgage rates in the August through November period.<br />
...<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwfEjxfBPXW33FA4O-qnVm5tQv1048bSUb22XT9iAdQtkoDAqePM0RpLcp5u4WJzkj0cCJAKTLpZH2aXlsdhapi2uvLzlIUhw63-Tfm8_MZmpSvJ0TMFYpI2BxtOtPoHPYYtwgv4jT2afO9WCjmuobzziOK9lvZpsfvoOUeyXduk1Gf9hJCv4t/s665/ActiveFeb2024V2.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Active Listings Existing Home Sales" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwfEjxfBPXW33FA4O-qnVm5tQv1048bSUb22XT9iAdQtkoDAqePM0RpLcp5u4WJzkj0cCJAKTLpZH2aXlsdhapi2uvLzlIUhw63-Tfm8_MZmpSvJ0TMFYpI2BxtOtPoHPYYtwgv4jT2afO9WCjmuobzziOK9lvZpsfvoOUeyXduk1Gf9hJCv4t/s320/ActiveFeb2024V2.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets in February.<br />
<br />
Inventory for these markets were up 12.4% year-over-year in January and are now up 23.8% year-over-year. A key will be if inventory builds over the next few months. Yesterday, Mike Simonson, President of Altos Research wrote: “The market could peak at 40% inventory growth over last year.”<br />
<br />
<b>Special Note: Florida is overweighted in this early sample, and that has distorted the overall picture (since inventory is surging in Florida).</b><br />
<br />
Inventory is down in most of these areas compared to 2019.<br />
...<br />
Many more local markets to come! </blockquote>There is much more in the article.<br />
<br /><center><iframe frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/embed" style="background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;" width="480"></iframe></center>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-65175574487624778312024-03-12T11:15:00.002-04:002024-03-12T11:17:11.594-04:00Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.4% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in February<div>The Cleveland Fed <a href="https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/our-research/indicators-and-data/median-cpi.aspx">released</a> the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.<br />
<br />
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in February. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.3%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".<br />
<div><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLxebT5snUFXrA1y-kusImsgLEcsCC2_zeJhseuTVCWyThcjLrseR4dhFp4vs2YtGJfdA2j3yopg16u4pF7cmZ3T_6w9WbUAOH9yTOUhEeg1wI07jPzU9V9JyArjFmrwlauf1aiMH-qF2eU6n_mLaUS7M6RFvCiE8-OpVwj6YbYnV-PTz43R1d/s1052/InflationFeb2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Inflation Measures" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLxebT5snUFXrA1y-kusImsgLEcsCC2_zeJhseuTVCWyThcjLrseR4dhFp4vs2YtGJfdA2j3yopg16u4pF7cmZ3T_6w9WbUAOH9yTOUhEeg1wI07jPzU9V9JyArjFmrwlauf1aiMH-qF2eU6n_mLaUS7M6RFvCiE8-OpVwj6YbYnV-PTz43R1d/s320/InflationFeb2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a> <i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />
This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. <div><br /></div><div>On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 4.6% (down from 4.9% in January), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.5% (down from 3.7%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.8% (down from 3.9%). </div></div><div><br /></div><div>Core PCE is for January was up 2.8% YoY, down from 2.9% in December.</div><br />Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details. The volatile "Motor fuel" increased at a 54% annual rate in February. </div><div><br /></div><div>Rent and Owner's equivalent rent are still very high, and if we exclude rent, median CPI would be around 1.8% year-over-year. </div>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-38264622752869054522024-03-12T08:53:00.001-04:002024-03-12T08:53:09.182-04:00YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and ShelterHere are a few measures of inflation:<br />
<br />
The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined and is now up 3.9% YoY (increased recently).<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYiLRHalRMqgGeh9EnocQdb-wxHeejeMKpV8C5fdRByOU50-rWx9m6xAezylL6mPYrLIyvrbpOi5ODtzYtktgm6HdjjKpwOkloux8IRYDbBnsCk4n6IKQCvnKBSstar0Gzwh7IBkQW0pxyNLrYed08pso8pfN-dU4pbJr70n7C2s3U-u7nXo1p/s900/ServicesLessShelterFeb2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Services ex-Shelter" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYiLRHalRMqgGeh9EnocQdb-wxHeejeMKpV8C5fdRByOU50-rWx9m6xAezylL6mPYrLIyvrbpOi5ODtzYtktgm6HdjjKpwOkloux8IRYDbBnsCk4n6IKQCvnKBSstar0Gzwh7IBkQW0pxyNLrYed08pso8pfN-dU4pbJr70n7C2s3U-u7nXo1p/s320/ServicesLessShelterFeb2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />
This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through February 2024.<div><br /></div><div>Services were up 5.0% YoY as of February 2024, unchanged from 5.0% YoY in January.<br />
<br />
Services less rent of shelter was up 3.9% YoY in February, up from 3.6% YoY in January.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUjxJaGlKd31db_5gYTXHfFHIrXE2dqk4mH2XMC55MwVaHGavmjQ6dX6JlLTbburrPog0ojgs7UrRrLdUtIUkiiyrkcWCbNgMG4SMqDPaBiWTXC6g8QSsJhjwWpyKnm8KGj1_Hx_mJdPOZz8Vmrjym2O9kaE4owbLgsz0iHXD2sl9eS4tUIVrk/s902/GoodYoYfeb2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Goods CPI" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUjxJaGlKd31db_5gYTXHfFHIrXE2dqk4mH2XMC55MwVaHGavmjQ6dX6JlLTbburrPog0ojgs7UrRrLdUtIUkiiyrkcWCbNgMG4SMqDPaBiWTXC6g8QSsJhjwWpyKnm8KGj1_Hx_mJdPOZz8Vmrjym2O9kaE4owbLgsz0iHXD2sl9eS4tUIVrk/s320/GoodYoYfeb2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.<br />
<br />
<div>Durables were at -1.6% YoY as of February 2024, unchanged from -1.6% YoY in January.<br />
<br />
Commodities less food and energy commodities were down 0.3% YoY in February, unchanged from down 0.3% YoY in January.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ3GU5qzmlw-SZIrXQX6JSDQQYxezi4WCf-dUJTvyZzJyjkqOzJiGZGY3od_-VwuDEs7gYq6PrK4JdX6YSu_IUb_1ise9lOHKSEhjMzCfnpmHPAW_lD4Rolm2O1To7m_tgJj_1HfdywnUEnTu7JlDhZ77NAA4sKUkuWAHumkzERpaj826IyQFI/s1118/ShelterCPIFeb2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Shelter" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ3GU5qzmlw-SZIrXQX6JSDQQYxezi4WCf-dUJTvyZzJyjkqOzJiGZGY3od_-VwuDEs7gYq6PrK4JdX6YSu_IUb_1ise9lOHKSEhjMzCfnpmHPAW_lD4Rolm2O1To7m_tgJj_1HfdywnUEnTu7JlDhZ77NAA4sKUkuWAHumkzERpaj826IyQFI/s320/ShelterCPIFeb2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through February) and housing from the PCE report (through January)<br />
<br /><b>
Shelter was up 5.8% year-over-year in February</b>, down from 6.1% in January. Housing (PCE) was up 6.1% YoY in January, down from 6.3% in December.</div><div><br /></div><div>This is still <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-rent-trends-at-some-large">catching up with private data</a>. The BLS noted this morning: "<b>The index for shelter rose in February, as did the index for gasoline. Combined, these two indexes contributed over sixty percent of the monthly increase in the index for all items.</b>"</div></div><br />Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.2% YoY in January, unchanged from 2.2% in February. Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-20933771643320727272024-03-12T08:30:00.015-04:002024-03-12T08:31:52.808-04:00BLS: CPI Increased 0.4% in February; Core CPI increased 0.4%<a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">From the BLS</a>: <br />
<blockquote><b>The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in February on a
seasonally adjusted basis</b>, after rising 0.3 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal
adjustment.<br />
<br />
<b>The index for shelter rose in February, as did the index for gasoline. Combined, these two indexes
contributed over sixty percent of the monthly increase in the index for all items</b>. The energy index
rose 2.3 percent over the month, as all of its component indexes increased. The food index was
unchanged in February, as was the food at home index. The food away from home index rose 0.1 percent
over the month.<br />
<br />
<b>The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in February</b>, as it did in January.
Indexes which increased in February include shelter, airline fares, motor vehicle insurance, apparel,
and recreation. The index for personal care and the index for household furnishings and operations were
among those that decreased over the month.<br />
<br />
<b>The all items index rose 3.2 percent for the 12 months ending February</b>, a larger increase than the
3.1-percent increase for the 12 months ending January. <b>The all items less food and energy index rose
3.8 percent over the last 12 months</b>. The energy index decreased 1.9 percent for the 12 months ending
February, while the food index increased 2.2 percent over the last year.<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>The change in both CPI and core CPI were slightly above expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-30673806901968944252024-03-11T19:52:00.012-04:002024-03-11T19:52:00.138-04:00Tuesday: CPI<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-ME_fYqhvzLEY8lUjeRSq_LVpLV8VaF3MFUCt1WOWseusdw4DxCJwdn70hHrijcnXzgUbmgxYqAL04ayUWzsAklVVr9hIbQNQHo8XuvI75FjheE-6L-yV0_S7yCI2e7YOxYmZmB9vYmYgkwTNB9HI-GSu_Dw8poGXcGxLoNILSLiYEtXjYGW9/s391/RatesMar112024.PNG"><img alt="Mortgage Rates" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-ME_fYqhvzLEY8lUjeRSq_LVpLV8VaF3MFUCt1WOWseusdw4DxCJwdn70hHrijcnXzgUbmgxYqAL04ayUWzsAklVVr9hIbQNQHo8XuvI75FjheE-6L-yV0_S7yCI2e7YOxYmZmB9vYmYgkwTNB9HI-GSu_Dw8poGXcGxLoNILSLiYEtXjYGW9/s320/RatesMar112024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /> </a>From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: <a href="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-03112024">Mortgage Rate Winning Streak Finally Pauses, But Just Barely</a><blockquote>Mortgage rates hit their best levels in more than a month by the end of last week after moving lower for 4 straight days. If you could only know one thing about today, it's that although rates didn't extend their winning streak, they are still very close to Friday's levels--close enough that the typical borrower wouldn't care or notice. <br />
...<br />
[A]ll eyes are on CPI tomorrow. If it comes in much higher or lower than expected, rates will likely react in a major way. [<b><a href="http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/">30 year fixed 6.87%</a></b>]<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>
Tuesday:<br />
• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB <b>Small Business Optimism Index</b> for February.<br />
<br />
• At 8:30 AM, The <b>Consumer Price Index for February</b> from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.1% Year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 3.7% YoY.Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-14090983942026160112024-03-11T14:13:00.002-04:002024-03-11T14:13:29.840-04:00Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.3% Year-over-year<div>From STR: <a href="https://str.com/press-release/us-hotel-results-week-ending-2-march">U.S. hotel results for week ending 2 March</a></div>
<blockquote>U.S. hotel performance was mostly positive year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 2 March.<br />
<br />
25 February through 2 March 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):<br />
<br />
• <b>Occupancy: 62.5% (-0.3%)</b><br />
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$155.29 (+2.7%)<br />
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$97.12 (+2.4%)<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the <b>four-week average</b>.<div><br /></div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2vUOaeGSS2mgsrqYxrx09JYc-UhtY-JCx8RV3iuayB_WKVGom3Blqt573njoMEUYnNqJLFZkHuYAcedA04MGsW7qOPLpyZ_Zx7A0hp6SIiVAyXu5BUBPOIQ1yNWv0GT0SmGqv4gbl5ikiG1dMi14uVb0TkZA3u46Q1xrNB7lADHMFyc-iBSwl/s1030/HotelMar112024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Hotel Occupancy Rate" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2vUOaeGSS2mgsrqYxrx09JYc-UhtY-JCx8RV3iuayB_WKVGom3Blqt573njoMEUYnNqJLFZkHuYAcedA04MGsW7qOPLpyZ_Zx7A0hp6SIiVAyXu5BUBPOIQ1yNWv0GT0SmGqv4gbl5ikiG1dMi14uVb0TkZA3u46Q1xrNB7lADHMFyc-iBSwl/s320/HotelMar112024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />
The red line is for 2024, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. <div><br /></div><div>The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking below last year, and below the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).<br /><div><br /></div><div>Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.</div><div><br /></div><div>The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase seasonally over the next several weeks.</div></div></div>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-17213719007909662852024-03-11T11:19:00.001-04:002024-03-11T11:19:17.570-04:00Lawler: Rent Trends at some Large Holders of Multifamily PropertiesToday, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-rent-trends-at-some-large">Lawler: Rent Trends at some Large Holders of Multifamily Properties</a><br />
<br />A brief excerpt: <blockquote>Below tables showing rent trends at three publicly traded companies owning large numbers of multifamily units – MAA, Equity Residential (EQR), and Avalon Bay Communities (AVB). ...<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPPm0AiNKHQhimO1Do7Q2KwmEQx5pzLzgqaiVgaxPUjdW-VuJTOy_QR9FGtGTGvx7t8Z-e_Znzotkt_vS6Pzd7shoOBoN2dvZxRppluF2brSUktNEloYnu8R9u1a7aht7BdqwSAQAuI1SSkkZb2qygZbkr1-Wm1baVxR1NYwpMrmFIfHKKiNYt/s1115/Lawler1Mar112024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Multifamily Rents" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPPm0AiNKHQhimO1Do7Q2KwmEQx5pzLzgqaiVgaxPUjdW-VuJTOy_QR9FGtGTGvx7t8Z-e_Znzotkt_vS6Pzd7shoOBoN2dvZxRppluF2brSUktNEloYnu8R9u1a7aht7BdqwSAQAuI1SSkkZb2qygZbkr1-Wm1baVxR1NYwpMrmFIfHKKiNYt/s320/Lawler1Mar112024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>Not surprisingly, rent growth at all three companies has slowed sharply over the last year. Moreover, rent changes on new move-in’s slowed sharply beginning in the fourth quarter of last year, and were negative for all three companies last quarter.<br />
<br />
Note also, however, that the YOY growth in rent renewals, while also down sharply from mid-2022, was still running in the 4 ½% - 5% range in January.</blockquote>There is much more in the article.<br />
<br /><center><iframe frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/embed" style="background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;" width="480"></iframe></center>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-38790814452116341362024-03-11T08:19:00.022-04:002024-03-11T08:19:00.136-04:00Housing March 11th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.4% Week-over-week, Up 21.1% Year-over-year<div>Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.4% week-over-week. <b>It is likely inventory bottomed in mid-February, as opposed to mid-April in 2023, </b>and inventory is now up 1.3% from the 2024 February bottom.</div><div><div>
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9BpD67KOdxAzrt0aEpPsxxngahq1Be8JTGJVCP8EZDZF0A4s-eog6WF_buuzOohd_mFumICGjSp1VBnN92fr5MAzRIsJjmT0XQHw3KF_2TBb3CsZHKZAY9dU_Ai8b_Gr1XtIZI7CAQgEjHcuygGRJwRv9dbVMHm8vld9rgYTkF2IIBFmOimbc/s1182/AltosMar112024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Altos Home Inventory" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9BpD67KOdxAzrt0aEpPsxxngahq1Be8JTGJVCP8EZDZF0A4s-eog6WF_buuzOohd_mFumICGjSp1VBnN92fr5MAzRIsJjmT0XQHw3KF_2TBb3CsZHKZAY9dU_Ai8b_Gr1XtIZI7CAQgEjHcuygGRJwRv9dbVMHm8vld9rgYTkF2IIBFmOimbc/s320/AltosMar112024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a> <i><b><span style="font-size: 78%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br /><br />
This inventory graph is courtesy of <a href="https://altosresearch.com/">Altos Research</a>.<div><br /></div><div>
As of March 8th, inventory was at 501 thousand (7-day average), compared to 498 thousand the prior week. </div><div><br /></div><div>Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels.</div><div><br /></div>The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzKdGXJW8xDVSb4YMuvV2Q6OBi2MGQEpby-ju8cUIQLLRbOPt6AXTa9w6LYPw2K3ZaOIwOk0LsydZh1XS2Ewfvpk3mKh4ub1aLnRlfZQyXXjMbrI9wACzt4aAA7CQzADFJ8kKeSPcdeEr9pfOMzWQ7NRDp96z_mBn5lfSPxydjfrWybwTknvYh/s1087/AltosYoYMar112024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Altos Year-over-year Home Inventory" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzKdGXJW8xDVSb4YMuvV2Q6OBi2MGQEpby-ju8cUIQLLRbOPt6AXTa9w6LYPw2K3ZaOIwOk0LsydZh1XS2Ewfvpk3mKh4ub1aLnRlfZQyXXjMbrI9wACzt4aAA7CQzADFJ8kKeSPcdeEr9pfOMzWQ7NRDp96z_mBn5lfSPxydjfrWybwTknvYh/s320/AltosYoYMar112024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><br /></div><div>The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. <b>Note that inventory is up more than double from the record low for the same week in 2022</b>, but still well below normal levels.</div><div><br /></div><div>Inventory was up 21.1% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 18.8%), and down 38.7% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 39.1%). </div><div><br /></div><div>Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed a little.</div><div><br /></div><div>Mike Simonsen discusses this <a href="https://www.youtube.com/altosresearch">data regularly on Youtube</a>.</div></div>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-49534699569196270812024-03-10T18:06:00.002-04:002024-03-10T18:06:36.864-04:00Sunday Night FuturesWeekend:<br />
• <a href="https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/03/schedule-for-week-of-march-10-2024.html">Schedule for Week of March 10, 2024</a><br />
<br />
Monday:<br />
• At 10:00 AM ET, <b>State Employment and Unemployment</b> (Monthly) for January 2024<br />
<br />
From CNBC: <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/">Pre-Market Data</a> and <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/">Bloomberg futures</a> S&P 500 are up 8 and DOW futures are up 50 (fair value).<br />
<br />
Oil prices were down over the last week with <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/">WTI futures</a> at $78.01 per barrel and Brent at $82.08 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $77, and Brent was at $82 - so WTI oil prices are up slightly year-over-year. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.gasbuddy.com/Charts">Here is a graph</a> from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.40 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.44 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.04 year-over-year.Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-67532679409469239102024-03-10T08:21:00.027-04:002024-03-10T08:21:00.136-04:00Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 19.9% YoY; New Listings up 17.4% YoY<b>What this means:</b> On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com <a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/february-2024-data/">reported</a> inventory was up 14.8% YoY, but still down almost 40% compared to February 2019. <div><br /></div><div> Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 19.9% YoY, and that would still put inventory down about 38% compared to March 2019.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/data/">Realtor.com</a> has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: <a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-feb-24-2024/">Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending March 2, 2024</a><blockquote>• <b>Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 19.9% above year ago levels.</b> For a 17th straight week, active listings registered above prior year level, which means that today’s home shoppers see more for-sale homes. In fact, the February Realtor.com Housing Trends Report showed that 2024 had the most abundant level of inventory since 2020, and inventory held relatively steady relative to January, counter to typical monthly trend over the last four years. Nevertheless, the number of homes on the market is still down nearly 40% compared to what was typical in 2017 to 2019.<br />
<br />
• <b>New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week, by 17.4% from one year ago.</b> Newly listed homes reached above year ago levels for the 19th week in a row. </blockquote>;<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFko9HEnbULOZf7QlTrId3cx992USGZU3mgb4TSOIfkWyLyAL3J7wbXfR7dmSPKD_4969kmL8UEUIHsg2tduYmQ5HTGL_vaKSybDjP_wM7pVbrkUWduZahUpME43vpy9bn_l0nJjf8smvsBK7MNVRDCDaM8XCz5mU18Kqk0oyfxcMKQw29-kIw/s1009/RealtorMar72024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Realtor YoY Active Listings" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFko9HEnbULOZf7QlTrId3cx992USGZU3mgb4TSOIfkWyLyAL3J7wbXfR7dmSPKD_4969kmL8UEUIHsg2tduYmQ5HTGL_vaKSybDjP_wM7pVbrkUWduZahUpME43vpy9bn_l0nJjf8smvsBK7MNVRDCDaM8XCz5mU18Kqk0oyfxcMKQw29-kIw/s320/RealtorMar72024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to <a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/data/">realtor.com</a>. <br />
<br />Inventory was up year-over-year for the 17th consecutive week following 20 consecutive weeks with a YoY decrease in inventory. <div><br /></div><div>Inventory is still historically very low.</div><div><br /></div><div>Although new listings remain well below "typical pre-pandemic levels", new listings are now up YoY for the 19th consecutive week.</div> </div>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-41324464460675692772024-03-09T14:11:00.016-05:002024-03-09T14:11:00.141-05:00Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Price-to-rent index is 7.3% below recent peakAt the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:<br />
<br />
• <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/the-home-atm-closed-in-q4">The "Home ATM" Closed in Q4</a><br />
<br />
• <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-24-8e7">Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak</a> Price-to-rent index is 7.3% below recent peak<br />
<br />
• <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-rents-mostly-unchanged-year-560">Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year</a> <br />
<br />
• <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-at-local-housing-markets-3ab">1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February</a><br />
<br />
• <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-some-thoughts-on-quantitative">Lawler: Some Thoughts on Quantitative Easing and Quantitative Tightening</a><br />
<br />
• <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/ice-mortgage-monitor-first-time-homebuyers">ICE Mortgage Monitor: "First-Time Homebuyers Make Up Record 47% of GSE Purchase Loans"</a><br />
<br />
This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.<br />
<br /><center><iframe frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/embed" style="background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;" width="480"></iframe></center>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-48765732853423662732024-03-09T08:11:00.044-05:002024-03-09T08:11:00.143-05:00Schedule for Week of March 10, 2024The key reports this week are February CPI and Retail Sales.<br />
<br />
For manufacturing, the February Industrial Production report and the March NY Fed manufacturing survey will be released.<br />
<br />
<center>
<b>----- Monday, March 11th -----</b></center>
<br />
10:00 AM: <b>State Employment and Unemployment</b> (Monthly) for January 2024<br />
<br />
<center>
<b>----- Tuesday, March 12th -----</b></center>
<br />
6:00 AM ET: NFIB <b>Small Business Optimism Index</b> for February.<br />
<br />
<br />
8:30 AM: The <b>Consumer Price Index for February</b> from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.1% Year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 3.7% YoY.<br />
<br />
<center>
<b>----- Wednesday, March 13th -----</b></center>
<br />
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the <b>mortgage purchase applications index</b>.<br />
<br />
<center>
<b>----- Thursday, March 14th -----</b></center>
<br />
8:30 AM: The <b>initial weekly unemployment claims</b> report will be released. The consensus is for 221 thousand initial claims, up from 217 thousand last week.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0IRZ4LbJt0R42F77rZJCZdymqkv_97im3ajI4fLMPrS5QkM7r8b7OigbvBTgwtjPSG_qUyEfN0PJZa7xplePfx2Y3B7M1vSeBGSAIAi4ZXw68uNJhwsMB37mZFZMfGXbpp442IferGalHl7_21bvZivo0XDKhRreIwS3HrajM9_p42UqGWS6I/s1043/RetailJan2024.PN" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Retail Sales" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0IRZ4LbJt0R42F77rZJCZdymqkv_97im3ajI4fLMPrS5QkM7r8b7OigbvBTgwtjPSG_qUyEfN0PJZa7xplePfx2Y3B7M1vSeBGSAIAi4ZXw68uNJhwsMB37mZFZMfGXbpp442IferGalHl7_21bvZivo0XDKhRreIwS3HrajM9_p42UqGWS6I/s320/RetailJan2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>8:30 AM: <b>Retail sales</b> for February is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in retail sales.<br />
<br />
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). <br />
<br />
8:30 AM: The <b>Producer Price Index for February</b> from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.<br />
<br />
<center>
<b>----- Friday, March 15th -----</b></center>
<br />
8:30 AM: The New York Fed <b>Empire State manufacturing survey</b> for March. The consensus is for a reading of -8.0, down from -2.4.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEohraBmTc2G50O3V_kECjSKdGGY0gj4po6kel7UDe3XHDyaKn6ifMRDPm4GXbUnplovngY1KOkKPXJmBnG3lAJb2XbC5cyuc_vBv1JNC6CVgQ904-xzdJTUFI-vChlecOm6FkFpnoEbdETr1bGL66eAKThqeLPdxnmeId6op5Rvz6wyv9sj0V/s1004/IPJan2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Industrial Production" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEohraBmTc2G50O3V_kECjSKdGGY0gj4po6kel7UDe3XHDyaKn6ifMRDPm4GXbUnplovngY1KOkKPXJmBnG3lAJb2XbC5cyuc_vBv1JNC6CVgQ904-xzdJTUFI-vChlecOm6FkFpnoEbdETr1bGL66eAKThqeLPdxnmeId6op5Rvz6wyv9sj0V/s320/IPJan2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a> 9:15 AM: The Fed will release <b>Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization</b> for February.<br />
<br />
This graph shows industrial production since 1967.<br />
<br />
The consensus is no changed in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 78.4%.<br />
<br />
10:00 AM: <b>University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index</b> (Preliminary for March).Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-57448714267616420222024-03-08T19:45:00.036-05:002024-03-08T19:45:00.129-05:00March 8th COVID Update: Weekly Deaths Decreased<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi73fHKjhsTNJfsRzfk6zKW6Nm3POW-mFCxc32Y4QDHP_bcKT-FFldzaQiJU57wIx3Vn10631Z2UHs9mKOS0A13CVSw85er9Bvb9Xz-z3WFv_pl4QafYvWAAKkfQTOYtF1OzQk1LtB-dsYBwQG9rS9ssGC8JA-QrybrC_v0hOr9o7a6Xf5KiOYl/s389/RatesMar82024.PNG"><img alt="Mortgage Rates" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi73fHKjhsTNJfsRzfk6zKW6Nm3POW-mFCxc32Y4QDHP_bcKT-FFldzaQiJU57wIx3Vn10631Z2UHs9mKOS0A13CVSw85er9Bvb9Xz-z3WFv_pl4QafYvWAAKkfQTOYtF1OzQk1LtB-dsYBwQG9rS9ssGC8JA-QrybrC_v0hOr9o7a6Xf5KiOYl/s320/RatesMar82024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>Note: Mortgage rates are from <a href="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/">MortgageNewsDaily.com</a> and are for top tier scenarios.<br />
<br />
<div>Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated.</div><div><br /></div><div>For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.</div><div><br /></div><div>Hospitalizations have declined significantly from the winter high of 30,020 earlier this year but are still well above the low of 5,380 last year.</div><div><br /></div>
<center>
<table align="center" border="2" cellpadding="4" style="width: 480px;"><tbody>
<tr><th colspan="5">COVID Metrics</th></tr>
<tr><th> </th><th>Now</th><th>Week<br />Ago</th><th>Goal</th></tr>
<tr><td>Hospitalized<sup>2</sup></td><td align="center">13,905</td><td align="center">15,699</td><td align="center">≤3,000<sup>1</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td>Deaths per Week<sup>2</sup></td><td align="center">1,477</td><td align="center">1,642</td><td align="center">≤350<sup>1</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="4"><sup>1</sup>my goals to stop weekly posts,<br /><sup>2</sup>Weekly for Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths<br />🚩 Increasing number weekly for Hospitalized and Deaths
<br />✅ Goal met.</td></tr>
</tbody></table></center><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT33usyp8iABrSMpvvPVBFRgEwV6E-MM7GciqzP_gtGKwMcl350xCQbYfs4WIzPIIE0tcrncBhbk0tI9r1bxAbcnC2dgZrUAjVVs3kBQxs-cMLMY65vkaB8aYLw3r6lDqhsglzOksZo_bZZXP6ANAwCPHC7tx0TFs-BzleV3EWM8TzrEU4bhka/s1271/COVIDDeathsMar82024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="COVID-19 Deaths per Week" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT33usyp8iABrSMpvvPVBFRgEwV6E-MM7GciqzP_gtGKwMcl350xCQbYfs4WIzPIIE0tcrncBhbk0tI9r1bxAbcnC2dgZrUAjVVs3kBQxs-cMLMY65vkaB8aYLw3r6lDqhsglzOksZo_bZZXP6ANAwCPHC7tx0TFs-BzleV3EWM8TzrEU4bhka/s320/COVIDDeathsMar82024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.<div><br /></div><div><div>Weekly deaths have declined sharply from the recent peak of 2,521 but are still triple the low of 489 last year.</div></div><div><br /></div>And here is a graph I'm following on <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nwss/rv/COVID19-nationaltrend.html">COVID in wastewater</a> as of Mar 7th:<br />
<br />
<span style="border-image: initial; border-width: 1px;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu75iXPabLP0cPuRVa3uvfjw0OX2bvBwa7qIqvcek6j8D8XEZ3V8IC-r4Yz-VS75mYi8DW8b6jtJydg5-2pgzKuB1zCWRYw7_RmEjxGHL4V5qpk_KWTgR27cmtpoPP_-z50PejLPQNhrpJPMNIgz-rMZ6juanqpjMtR5WGT_joj591sUfQ_7Wj/s1032/COVIDWasteMar82024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="COVID-19 Wastewater" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu75iXPabLP0cPuRVa3uvfjw0OX2bvBwa7qIqvcek6j8D8XEZ3V8IC-r4Yz-VS75mYi8DW8b6jtJydg5-2pgzKuB1zCWRYw7_RmEjxGHL4V5qpk_KWTgR27cmtpoPP_-z50PejLPQNhrpJPMNIgz-rMZ6juanqpjMtR5WGT_joj591sUfQ_7Wj/s320/COVIDWasteMar82024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a></span>This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.<div><br /></div><div>Nationally, COVID in wastewater is now off almost 70% from the holiday peak at the end of December, and that suggests weekly hospitalizations and deaths will continue to decline.</div> Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-49079878861506863002024-03-08T15:12:00.000-05:002024-03-08T15:12:19.670-05:00AAR: Rail Traffic Recovered in FebruaryFrom the Association of American Railroads (AAR) <a href="https://www.aar.org/data-center/rail-traffic-data/">Rail Time Indicators</a>. <i>Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission</i>. <br />
<blockquote><b>U.S. rail traffic recovered in February after severe weather constrained volumes in January.</b><br />
<br />
Total originated carloads on U.S. railroads averaged 221,387 per week in February, up from
205,034 in January. Total carloads were down 1.3% in February 2024 from February 2023. That’s a big
improvement from January’s 7.2% decline.<br />
...<br />
Meanwhile, U.S. intermodal originations in February 2024 were up 10.9% over February 2023.
That’s their biggest percentage gain in 32 months and the sixth straight gain of any size. Intermodal
averaged 260,078 units per week in February 2024, the second most in 16 months.<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4na45VNY-4ZAgqPHmIAYHvuS2PVvEyL4MIVdzKOlALBb7x3NooTNC3DVwQpN9wMmDzopSPwIIzlq0SSAUwNkEemFnAY5C5If59XkXxbBqLk03-bo2JAAIBZQaAjBImsI3-OvYbvrtZsxYOB6-bvL4Xngvw2pPVkzZ5VQpM2s7oGyFS6zyoVtu/s817/AARCarloadsFeb2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Rail Traffic" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4na45VNY-4ZAgqPHmIAYHvuS2PVvEyL4MIVdzKOlALBb7x3NooTNC3DVwQpN9wMmDzopSPwIIzlq0SSAUwNkEemFnAY5C5If59XkXxbBqLk03-bo2JAAIBZQaAjBImsI3-OvYbvrtZsxYOB6-bvL4Xngvw2pPVkzZ5VQpM2s7oGyFS6zyoVtu/s320/AARCarloadsFeb2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a> <i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />
This graph from the <a href="https://www.aar.org/data-center/popular-publications/rail-time-indicators">Rail Time Indicators report</a> shows the <b>six-week average </b>of U.S. Carloads in 2022, 2023 and 2024:<br />
<blockquote>In February, originated carloads on U.S. railroads
were 885,548, down 1.3% (11,410 carloads) from last year.
That’s a big improvement from January’s 7.2% decline.
Carloads averaged 221,387 per week in February, up from
205,034 in January. Generally speaking, carload volumes
remain constrained in part because the goods-side of the
U.S. economy, including manufacturing as a whole (see
pages 7 and 8), is not doing as well as it could be.
</blockquote>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIRrDQbOhv-CxR9pXItLgRhJ7nwN_RD-OVQwjIDO0rJFJ8dAAqZFy9QILfw7vTsC0hoVDV9NOjJqiopBmAqpSeH4SMXtVe0PH93Hm6WDrvMkf1Vq_aMgQaq6m7I3I8HoI-QX01xZihh8obW7KmywBujAmdMQx8bKlNw80DMZPq18kT9awKpaM6/s815/AARIntermodalFeb2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Rail Traffic" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIRrDQbOhv-CxR9pXItLgRhJ7nwN_RD-OVQwjIDO0rJFJ8dAAqZFy9QILfw7vTsC0hoVDV9NOjJqiopBmAqpSeH4SMXtVe0PH93Hm6WDrvMkf1Vq_aMgQaq6m7I3I8HoI-QX01xZihh8obW7KmywBujAmdMQx8bKlNw80DMZPq18kT9awKpaM6/s320/AARIntermodalFeb2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>The second graph shows the <b>six-week average</b> (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2022, 2023 and 2024: (using intermodal or shipping containers):<br />
<blockquote>U.S. intermodal originations in February 2024
totaled 1.04 million containers and trailers, up 10.9%
(102,140 units) over February 2023. That’s the biggest
year-over-year percentage gain for intermodal in 32
months and the sixth straight gain of any size. Intermodal
averaged 260,078 units per week in February, up from
241,203 in January and the second most in 16 months.
</blockquote> Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0