Calculated Risk

Orion Bank CEO Had a Plan ...

2009-11-14T22:55:00.001-05:00

In his comments with the Unofficial Problem Bank list, surferdude808 noted that the Federal Reserve issued a Prompt Corrective Action order against Orion Bank on Thursday. Orion was seized the following day by the FDIC.

The PCA order makes for interesting reading (Note: Stephen at FUMU Finance wrote to me about this - here is Stephen's post with some background details: Orion Bank - Management's master plan!). From the PCA:

In order to improve its management, the Bank must dismiss Jerry Williams (“Williams”), its current chief executive officer, president, and chairman of its board of directors, from office and as a member of the board of directors, based on the following:

(a) Prior to June 2009, the Bank reached its legal lending limit under Florida law with respect to the aggregate loans outstanding to a borrower and his related interests. In June 2009, Williams permitted the Bank to make loans of an additional approximately $60 million to straw borrowers who were related interests of the borrower referred to above in continuing violation of the Florida legal lending limit statute (the “June 2009 loans”);

(b) the June 2009 loans referred to above, which were made to enable the borrowers to purchase certain low quality assets from the Bank, were underwritten in an unsafe and unsound manner. The loans were made without adequate analysis of the borrowers’ creditworthiness, capacity for repayment, and valuation of collateral offered in support of the loans. Further, the loans were structured in a manner to make it appear that the Bank was reducing its level of classified assets;

(c) the Bank needed additional capital as of June 30, 2009, to avoid being less than well-capitalized. Williams had knowledge that $15 million of loan proceeds from the June 2009 loans referred to above were to be used to purchase common and preferred stock issued by Orion Bancorp, Inc., Naples, Florida (“Bancorp”), the parent holding company for the Bank, and Williams took steps to ensure that the $15 million was promptly used to purchase the holding company stock;

(d) in early July 2009, in response to inquiries from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (the “Reserve Bank”), Williams stated orally and in writing that the $15 million in capital referred to above was raised “without any financing” provided by the Bank. This statement was false because Williams had information available to him to demonstrate that the Bank intended that the loan proceeds be used as the source of the stock purchase;

(e) as a result of the actions set forth in (a) through (d), above, the Bank, with Williams’ active participation, filed materially inaccurate regulatory reports, made false statements to the Federal Reserve, has suffered additional loan losses, and has failed to comply with provisions of an outstanding Written Agreement designed to require that the Bank properly address its asset quality problems. These actions show that the management of the Bank would be improved without Williams’ service as a senior executive officer or director of the Bank.
emphasis added

Pretty amazing.

Home Builder's Return on Lobbying

2009-11-14T19:18:00.004-05:00

Gretchen Morgenson at the NY Times writes about the tax loss carry-back¹ "gift" for home builders in the recently signed "Worker, Homeownership and Business Assistance Act of 2009": Home Builders (You Heard That Right) Get a Gift

The Center for Responsive Politics reports that through Oct. 26 of this year, home builders paid $6 million to their lobbyists. ... Much of this year’s lobbying expenditures were focused on arguing for the tax loss carry-forward, documents show.

Among individual companies, Lennar spent $240,000 lobbying while companies affiliated with Hovnanian Enterprises spent $222,000. Pulte Homes spent $210,000 this year.

That’s some return on investment. After spending its $210,000, Pulte will receive $450 million in refunds. And Hovnanian, after spending its $222,000, will get as much as $275 million.

That is quite a Return on Lobbying (ROL), although some of the money went to lobbying for the inefficient homebuyer tax credit.

And, oh, this "gift" will create few if any jobs.

¹ UPDATE: This is really a tax loss carry back to the profitable years.

Zell on CRE: Too Soon for Grave Dancing

2009-11-14T16:52:00.003-05:00

From Barron's: Sam Zell: Too Soon for Dancing

Sam Zell ... said ... that the time isn't ripe because owners of office, retail and warehouse properties and their lenders are living in a dream world, believing that property prices will recover and vacancies will drop. ...

"Everybody is waiting for the Grave Dancer to come in, but at this point property owners won't tango," he told a gathering of prominent investors in downtown Chicago .

When Zell does start buying, he said, hotels are where he plans to play first ...

Zell has bought and sold CRE at the right time before.

However last year at the Milken Conference in Los Angeles, Zell thought CRE would be fine - from my notes:

Sam Zell started by saying we need to separate commercial from residential. Commercial will be fine in his view (not my view). ... Zell isn't talking about new construction (CRE), rather he is talking about prices for existing CRE. He feels there is too much global demand ("liquidity") for prices to fall too far - especially for Class-A buildings.

Watch what he does, not what he says!

Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation Deficit Increases

2009-11-14T11:58:00.001-05:00

The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) is the federal agency that guarantees pensions for 44 million Americans. The PBGC deficit doubled over the last six months to $22 billion ... but this is only just the beginning as the agency's potential exposure to future losses increased sharply.

From the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC): PBGC Releases Annual Management Report for Fiscal Year 2009

The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) ended fiscal year 2009 with an overall deficit of $22 billion, according to the agency's Annual Management Report submitted to Congress today. The result compares with the $11.2 billion deficit recorded at the previous fiscal year-end on September 30, 2008.
...
The Annual Management Report classified 27 large pension plans with total underfunding of $1.64 billion as probable losses on the PBGC balance sheet. The report also shows that the agency's potential exposure to future pension losses from financially weak companies increased to about $168 billion from the $47 billion booked in fiscal year 2008.

"Exposure to possible future terminations means that we could face much higher deficits in the future," said Acting Director Vincent K. Snowbarger. "We won't fail to meet our obligations to retirees, but ultimately we will need a long-term solution to stabilize the pension insurance program."
emphasis added

With companies moving away from defined benefit plans, there will be fewer companies paying for insurance in the future - and the "long-term solution" will probably involve some sort of bailout.

U.K. Mortgage Lenders: Don't Treat Us like "Drug Dealers"

2009-11-14T08:55:00.002-05:00

This is amusing ...

From the Telegraph: FSA treats mortgage lenders like 'drug dealers', says CML chief

Hitting back at the idea that lenders are “evil” and reckless, [Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) chief] Matthew Wyles said the industry should be allowed to treat its customers as adults, respecting their right to make their own decisions.

He said: “I have a sneaking suspicion that it’s the way that regulators see consumers – as wanton children who have a tendency to want what isn’t necessarily good for them, and for whom Nanny knows best.

“Increasingly, I also have the feeling that regulators see lenders and intermediaries as the sweetshop owners – or worse, the drug-dealers at the school gates – of the mortgage market, enticing innocent consumers in and then getting them hooked, for their own evil profit-driven purposes.”

Speaking at the CML’s conference, he said the FSA was at risk of creating “the kind of moral hazard it wishes to avoid”, by making consumers feel they need to take no responsibility for their own decisions.

Mr Wyles added that the purpose of regulation should be to provide a sensible operating framework between businesses and their customers.

“It should not attempt to wrap consumers in cotton wool and make borrowing risk-free. That is not the nature of lending, and it is not the nature of borrowing,” he said.

There is nothing in the FSA proposals that would make borrowing "risk-free". That is absurd. And the consumers would still be responsible for all their own decisions.

The proposals are aimed at full disclosure, and to protect consumers from, uh, "drug dealers".

More Losses for TARP

2009-11-14T00:23:00.002-05:00

When Pacific National Bank of San Clemente was closed by regulators Friday, the TARP lost $4.12 million (ht Matt Padilla). Last week the TARP lost $298.7 million when San Francisco-based United Commercial Bank (UCBH Holdings) failed.

It looks like TARP losses are becoming a trend ... and, oh, the cost to the FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) for the three bank failures today is estimated to be almost $1 billion.

Here is the updated Unofficial Problem Bank List

And the quote of the day via the WSJ: State Finance Directors Warn of More Trouble Ahead

"I looked as hard as I could at how states could declare bankruptcy," said Michael Genest, director of the California Department of Finance who is stepping down at the end of the year. "I literally looked at the federal constitution to see if there was a way for states to return to territory status."

And in economic news, the trade deficit increased in September. The major contributors to the increase were higher oil prices and more imports from China. Also - since the deficit was higher than expected - Q3 GDP will probably be revised down.

Unofficial Problem Bank List increases to 507

2009-11-13T21:30:00.008-05:00

Note: This was before the three FDIC bank seizures today.

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The Unofficial Problem Bank List changed by a net two institutions this week to 507.

Seven institutions with assets of $1.6 billion were added to the list. The largest addition is First Federal Bank of North Florida, Palatka, FL ($444 million). The OCC did not release its actions for October today so we will look for those additions next week.

Assets on the list fell substantially from $330 billion to $304 billion as $13.2 billion of the decline came from the three failures last week -- United Commercial Bank ($12.8 billion), Prosperan Bank ($197 million), and Home Federal Savings Bank ($14 million) – and 2 banks that underwent unassisted mergers during July -- Discovery Bank ($151 million), and Southern Bank of Commerce ($30 million).

The list has been updated to include asset figures for the third quarter of 2009, which accounted for $14.5 billion of the decline in assets from last week. The largest decline in assets during the quarter occurred at AmTrust Bank (down $1.7 billion) and Woodlands Commercial Bank (down $1 billion). The average decline in assets during the quarter was $29 million but the median decline was only $4.5 million.

Positively, 368 institutions reduced their asset size during the quarter.

The only other changes to the list are the issuance of Prompt Corrective Action orders against three institutions that are already under a formal enforcement action. These PCA order were issued against Evergreen Bank, New South Federal Savings Bank, and Orion Bank (CR Note: Orion failed today!).

The list is compiled from regulator press releases or from public news sources (see Enforcement Action Type link for source). The FDIC data is released monthly with a delay, and the Fed and OTC data is more timely. The OCC data is a little lagged. Credit: surferdude808.

See description below table for Class and Cert (and a link to FDIC ID system).

For a full screen version of the table click here.

The table is wide - use scroll bars to see all information!

NOTE: Columns are sortable - click on column header (Assets, State, Bank Name, Date, etc.)

Class: from FDIC

The FDIC assigns classification codes indicating an institution's charter type (commercial bank, savings bank, or savings association), its chartering agent (state or federal government), its Federal Reserve membership status (member or nonmember), and its primary federal regulator (state-chartered institutions are subject to both federal and state supervision). These codes are:
N National chartered commercial bank supervised by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
SM State charter Fed member commercial bank supervised by the Federal Reserve
NM State charter Fed nonmember commercial bank supervised by the FDIC
SA State or federal charter savings association supervised by the Office of Thrift Supervision
SB State charter savings bank supervised by the FDIC

Cert: This is the certificate number assigned by the FDIC used to identify institutions and for the issuance of insurance certificates. Click on the number and the Institution Directory (ID) system "will provide the last demographic and financial data filed by the selected institution".

Bank Failure #123 in 2009: Pacific Coast National Bank, San Clemente, CA

2009-11-13T20:08:00.003-05:00

Near the waters edge
Sun sets on Pacific Coast
A bank, drowned by debt
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Sunwest Bank, Tustin, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of Pacific Coast National Bank, San Clemente, California

Pacific Coast National Bank, San Clemente, California, was closed today by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of August 31, 2009, Pacific Coast National Bank had total assets of $134.4 million and total deposits of approximately $130.9 million. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $27.4 million. ... Pacific Coast National Bank is the 123rd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the fifteenth in California. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was United Commercial Bank, San Francisco, on November 6, 2009.

That makes three today ...

Bank Failures #121 & 122: Two more in Florida

2009-11-13T18:08:00.003-05:00

Suited Bureaucrats
Waiting for critical mass
Century flames out

What is that white light?
Orion Supernovas
Hot money burns bright
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: IBERIABANK, Lafayette, Louisiana, Assumes All of the Deposits of Century Bank, Federal Savings Bank, Sarasota, Florida

Century Bank, Federal Savings Bank, Sarasota, Florida, was closed today by the Office of Thrift Supervision, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of October 31, 2009, Century Bank, FSB had total assets of $728 million and total deposits of approximately $631 million. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $344 million. ... Century Bank, FSB is the 121st FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the tenth in Florida. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Flagship National Bank, Bradenton, on November 6, 2009.

From the FDIC: IBERIABANK, Lafayette, Louisiana, Assumes All of the Deposits of Orion Bank, Naples, Florida

Orion Bank, Naples, Florida, was closed today by the Florida Office of Financial Regulation, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of October 31, 2009, Orion Bank had total assets of $2.7 billion and total deposits of approximately $2.1 billion. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $615 million. ... Orion Bank is the 122nd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the eleventh in Florida. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Century Bank, Sarasota, FL, earlier today.

State Budget Quote of the Day, and more Bank Failure Preview

2009-11-13T17:07:00.002-05:00

From the WSJ: State Finance Directors Warn of More Trouble Ahead

"I looked as hard as I could at how states could declare bankruptcy," said Michael Genest, director of the California Department of Finance who is stepping down at the end of the year. "I literally looked at the federal constitution to see if there was a way for states to return to territory status."

And on banks:

From the Chicago Tribune: Amcore says regulators reject plan to raise capital (ht Doug)

Last month, Amcore ... disclosed it was "undercapitalized or significantly undercapitalized under some regulatory capital standards."

On Nov. 6, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago also notified Amcore that it found its capital plan unacceptable.

Amcore said it's continuing to work with its financial and professional advisors in seeking outside capital, and in complying with the regulators' orders, but "there can be no assurance that these actions will be successful."

It also conceded that it could get seized by regulators.

"Failure to submit an acceptable capital restoration plan or disposition plan or to restore capital levels may result in additional enforcement actions by the regulators, including the appointment of a receiver," it said.

Amcore has $4.9 billion in assets.

And there is plenty of noise down in Florida tonight, from the Florida Business Journal BankUnited CEO: Big deal is coming

BankUnited CEO John Kanas told members of the Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce during a luncheon Tuesday that they should expect a big deal by his bank in the next week.

And also: Texas billionaire Beal seeks failed Florida bank (ht Stephen)

Federal regulators have granted Texas billionaire and financial executive Andrew Beal approval to form a bank that could acquire a failed or failing Florida bank.
...
All of these players have plenty of problem banks from which to choose. On June 30, there were 15 undercapitalized banks in Florida, including Fort Pierce-based Riverside National Bank, Naples-based Orion Bank, Panama City-based Peoples First Community Bank, Immokalee-based Florida Community Bank and Sarasota-based Century Bank.

Bank Failure Preview

2009-11-13T15:32:00.000-05:00

A couple of banks in trouble ...

From Reuters: US credit card issuer Advanta files for bankruptcy (ht jb)

The company also said its Advanta Bank's capital is below regulatory requirements and that the bank could turned over to a Federal Deposit Insurance Corp receivership.

Advanta said it decided not to fund the bank's capital shortfall to preserve value for other stakeholders.
emphasis added

Advanta bank has just under $3 billion in assets.

And from SignonSanDiego: Imperial Capital hits deadline to raise capital

The regulator-imposed deadline has passed for La Jolla's Imperial Capital Bank to raise additional capital, putting into question the future of the long-struggling institution.
...
Federal regulators first placed Imperial Capital under a cease-and-desist order in February. As part of that, the bank was required to submit a plan to raise additional capital.

The bank submitted its plan in August, but regulators rejected it and set yesterday as a deadline for the bank to sell stock to raise money or find a buyer.

Inperial has about $4.2 billion in assets, and has also received a Prompt Corrective Action from the FDIC:

On October 15, 2009, Imperial Capital Bank (the "Bank"), a wholly owned subsidiary of Imperial Capital Bancorp, Inc. (the "Company"), received a Supervisory Prompt Corrective Action Directive (the "Directive") from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (the "FDIC").

A Prompt Corrective Action Directive is basically a "Hail Mary pass" and frequently means failure is imminent (though not always).

Housing Starts and the Unemployment Rate

2009-11-13T12:54:00.005-05:00

This is an update to an earlier post. As I've noted for some time, housing leads the economy and is the best leading indicator for the economy - both into and out of recessions.

Update: Employment tends to be a coincident indicator into recessions, and used to be coincident coming out of recessions. Employment has lagged the economy after the previous two recessions (and appears to be lagging again).

Employment lags housing, and the following graph shows the relationship between starts and unemployment.

The graph is based on a talk by Jon Fisher, a professor at the University of San Francisco School of Business.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows housing starts (both total and single unit) and unemployment (inverted).

You can see both the correlation and the lag. The lag is usually about 12 to 18 months, with peak correlation at a lag of 16 months for single unit starts. The 2001 recession was a business investment led recession, and the pattern didn't hold.

This suggests unemployment might peak in Spring 2010.

Professor Fisher argued that unemployment will rise to about 10.4% and then fall rapidly. He is now projecting unemployment will decline to 8% by the end of 2010.

He is basing the rapid decline in unemployment on a "V shaped" housing recovery similar to previous recessions. I disagree with that point.

In most earlier recessions, the slumps were caused by the Fed raising interest rates to fight inflation. When the Fed cut rates, housing bounced back sharply (V shaped).

Although this recession was led by a housing bust - and that makes it look similar to some previous periods - this recession was not engineered by the Fed raising rates, rather it was the busting of the credit and housing bubbles, and all the related problems that led the economy into recession. Since there is still far too much existing home inventory, a sharp bounce back in housing starts is unlikely, so I think Fisher's forecast for a rapid decline in unemployment is also unlikely.

Euro Zone GDP Grows in Q3

2009-11-13T11:19:00.003-05:00

From the NY Times: Euro Zone Officially Out of Recession

... [T]he euro area emerged from recession during the third quarter, helped largely by export growth and improved industrial production in its largest economy, Germany.

The European Union’s statistics agency, Eurostat, reported Friday that gross domestic product for the 16 countries using the single currency expanded by 0.4 percent from the second quarter, following five quarters of contraction. Against a year earlier, G.D.P. was still 4.1 percent lower.

Analysts said the outlook remained patchy, particularly because unemployment is still climbing, wages are stagnant and consumption and lending are being propped up by government programs that will not be renewed indefinitely.

Note: the 0.4% is the quarterly rate (1.6% annualized when comparing to reporting in the U.S.).

Here is the Eurostat report: Euro area GDP up by 0.4% and EU27 GDP up by 0.2% with a breakdown by country.

Trade Deficit Increases in September

2009-11-13T08:37:00.003-05:00

The Census Bureau reports:

The ... total September exports of $132.0 billion and imports of $168.4 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $36.5 billion, up from $30.8 billion in August, revised. September exports were $3.7 billion more than August exports of $128.3 billion. September imports were $9.3 billion more than August imports of $159.1 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through September 2009.

Imports and exports increased in September. On a year-over-year basis, exports are off 13% and imports are off 21%.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through September.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Import oil prices increased to $68.17 in September - up more than 50% from the prices in February (at $39.22) - and the seventh monthly increase in a row. Import oil prices will probably rise further in October.

The major contributors to the increase in the trade deficit were the increase in oil prices, and more imports from China. Also - the deficit is higher than expected, suggesting a downward revision to Q3 GDP.

The Next Stimulus Package

2009-11-13T00:30:00.002-05:00

Earlier this week I mentioned a possible "upside surprise" for GDP in 2010:

With unemployment above 10%, there will be significant political pressure for another stimulus package - especially if the economy starts to slow in the first half of 2010. This next package could be several hundred billion (maybe $500 billion) and could increase GDP growth in 2010 above my forecast.

From The Hill: Senator Reid tees up 2010 jobs bill

Senate Democrats will take up a new job-creation bill in the wake of the 10.2 percent unemployment rate, Majority Leader Harry Reid told his colleagues Tuesday.

And from the LA Times: Obama announces forum -- a brainstorming session on job creation

Next month, Obama said he would gather chief executives, small-business owners, economists, labor leaders and others to discuss ways to create jobs and grow the economy.

It appears the idea of another stimulus package is gaining momentum ...

TARP Inspector General: Taxpayers to suffer Losses

2009-11-12T20:17:00.007-05:00

From Bloomberg: Barofsky Says TARP ‘Almost Certainly’ Will Bring Loss (ht jb)

Neil Barofsky ... said the [TARP] will “almost certainly” result in a loss to U.S. taxpayers.
...
“Tens of billions of dollars are likely to be lost on the automotive bailout,” Barofsky said. In addition, some banks that received TARP money are failing, so the aid they received will be wiped out.

The TARP lost $2.33 billion on CIT and another $299 b million on the failure of UCBH Holdings (United Commercial Bank) last week.

And there are a growing number of banks not paying their TARP dividends (33 banks as of August - not all will fail, but that is a bad sign).

And this is the quote of the day:

“When I first took office, I can’t tell you how many times I’d be having a sit-down and warning about potential fraud in the program and I would hear a response basically saying, ‘Oh, they’re bankers, and they wouldn’t put their reputations at risk by committing fraud,’” he said.

“I think we’ve done a good job of instilling a greater degree of skepticism that what comes from Wall Street isn’t necessarily the Holy Grail,” he said.

Rail Traffic Declines Slightly in October

2009-11-12T17:56:00.004-05:00

Update: Title corrected to October.

From the Association of American Railroads: Rail Time Indicators

In October 2009, U.S. freight railroads originated 1,100,714 carloads, an average of 275,179 carloads per week. That’s down 15.3% from October 2008 (when the weekly average was 324,836 carloads) and down 0.3% from September 2009 (when the weekly average was 276,137 carloads). Average weekly carloads have now declined for two straight months.

The following graph from the AAR shows average weekly carloads in the U.S.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Rail traffic fell off a cliff at the end of 2008, and it appears traffic has stabilized at a lower level.

Traffic will probably decline in November and December (the normal seasonal pattern).

The second graph shows the year-over-year change for rail traffic.

This is now a two year slump (like for the hotel occupancy rate), so the year-over-year decline will be significantly less in November and December.

The AAR report has a number of other graphs for various sectors like autos and housing. As an example they compare U.S. Housing Starts with U.S. and Canadian Rail Carloads
of Lumber, Wood & Forest Products.

For additional rail traffic, and a break down by carriers, see the Railfax report (ht Bob_in_MA)

FHA on DAPs: "Too many homeowners not equipped for home ownership"

2009-11-12T15:11:00.012-05:00

The FHA commented on the damage caused by the Downpayment Assistance Programs (DAPs) today. These DAPs circumvented the FHA down payment requirements by having the seller funnel the "down payment" to the buyer through a "charity" (for a small fee of course). The FHA attempted to stop this practice, but thanks to Congress, the DAPs led to billions of losses:

FHA was also adversely selected from 2000 through 2008 because it was the only guarantor willing to accept loans using seller-funded downpayments. Such downpayments were channeled through nonprofit organizations in order to meet FHA requirements on direct sources of funds. Those facilities created too many homeowners in the FHA portfolio that were not equipped for the financial responsibilities of home ownership. Indeed, the FY 2009 MMI Fund actuarial study for single-family loans notes that, if FHA had not insured any loans with seller-funded downpayment assistance, the net capital ratio today would still be above the statutory required two percent. FHA’s estimated economic net worth would be $10.4 billion higher today were it not for those loans. ... Their claim rates have consistently been between 2.5 and three times those of other FHA-insured home purchase loans.
emphasis added

This is still important today. The DAPs have been banned, but the first-time home buyer tax credit has probably created another group of "homeowners not equipped for the financial responsibilities of home ownership". Oh well ...

And some FHA stats ...

"86 percent of homebuyers relying upon FHA mortgage insurance in FY 2009 had downpayments of less than five percent."

"79 percent of FHA’s purchase-loan borrowers were first-time homebuyers."

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the recent boom in FHA originations. The MBA estimates that there will be about $2 trillion in orginations this year, so the FHA insured loans were probably just under 20% of originations.

The second graph shows delinquencies by year.

Overall 17.71% of FHA insured loans are delinquent, and 8.52% seriously delinquent. Note: Seriously delinquent "Includes all loans 90-days past due plus all in-bankruptcy and in-foreclosure cases."

The 2009 vintage is just getting started, but the FHA has tightened standards (higher FICO scores), and DAPs were banned at the end of 2008 - and that will help. Also the stabilization in house prices is helping with fewer delinquencies.

However many of these recent homebuyers probably aren't ready to be homeowners, and the delinquency rate will probably rise sharply - especially if house prices start falling again.

Hotel RevPAR off 11.8 Percent

2009-11-12T13:20:00.001-05:00

From HotelNewsNow.com: Boston leads RevPAR gains in STR weekly numbers

Overall, in year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy fell 3.6 percent to 54.8 percent, average daily rate dropped 8.5 percent US$97.19, and RevPAR decreased 11.8 percent to US$53.29.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the occupancy rate by week for each of the last four years (2006 through 2009 labeled by start of month).

Notes: the scale doesn't start at zero to better show the change. Thanksgiving was late in 2008, so the dip doesn't line up with the previous years.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

This is a two year slump for the hotel industry. Although occupancy is off 3.6% compared to 2008, occupancy is off about 17% compared to 2006 and 2007.

The occupancy rate really fell off a cliff in October 2008, and the good news is the occupancy rate for 2009 is tracking closer and closer to 2008.

Smith Travel Research is now predicting a slight uptick in occupancy rates in 2010 to 55.8% from an estimate of 55.2% in 2009. However average daily room rates (ADR), and revenue per available room (RevPAR) are expected to continue to decline slightly in 2010. The "good news" for the hotel industry is supply coming online is dropping sharply, and is expected to stay low for a few years. Of course that is bad news for construction workers ...

FHA Reserves Fall Sharply, Well Below Required Minimum

2009-11-12T11:08:00.003-05:00

From David Streitfeld at the NY Times: Housing Agency Says Cash Reserves Are Down Sharply

The Federal Housing Administration said Thursday morning that its cash reserves had dwindled significantly in the last year after a record drop in home prices.
...
The results of the F.H.A.’s annual audit showed the agency’s capital reserves to be 0.53 percent, far under the 2 percent minimum mandated by Congress. A year ago, the capital reserves were 3 percent.

From the FHA: Annual Actuarial Study Shows Capital Reserve Ratio Below Mandated Level; FHA Credit Policy Reforms Expected to Address Risk, Raise Reserve Levels

The independent study shows that FHA has sustained significant losses from loans made before 2009, and the capital reserve ratio has fallen below the congressionally mandated threshold, but concludes that under most economic scenarios considered FHA’s reserves would remain above zero.

FHA’s capital reserve ratio, which is determined through findings from the independent actuarial study, measures reserves held in excess of those needed to cover projected losses over the next 30 years. The review projects the capital reserve ratio to be 0.53 percent of total insurance in force this year, below the two-percent statutory threshold. This capital ratio fell from 3 percent in the fall of 2008, reflecting difficult conditions in the housing market. The 0.53 percent capital ratio (which represents the funds held in the Capital Reserve Account) is in addition to the auditor’s base case estimate of the 30-year reserves needed to pay for losses on existing loans (which are held in the Financing Account). Combining those two accounts, FHA holds $31 billion in its total reserves today, or more than 4.5 percent of total insurance-in-force.
...
As part of its efforts to manage risk, FHA is modeling more extreme scenarios than those used by the actuary, including scenarios showing the reserves going below zero. FHA is committed not only to understanding its risks, but also to developing policy responses appropriate to addressing that risk.
emphasis added

More links:

Annual Report to Congress Regarding the Financial Status of the FHA Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund

FHA Fiscal Year 2009 Actuarial Review Briefing

MBA: Purchase Applications Fall to Nine Year Low

2009-11-12T09:05:00.001-05:00

The MBA reports: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increase, Purchase Applications at Nine Year Low

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. ...

The Refinance Index increased 11.3 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 11.7 percent from one week earlier. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index is at its lowest level since December 2000.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.90 percent from 4.97 percent, with points increasing to 1.03 from 1.01 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.

It appears the post home buyer tax credit slump had started, although the tax credit will be extended and the eligibility expanded - so the slump might be delayed ... also existing home sales in October will probably be very strong - that is not good news for housing and the economy (since it was just demand from marginal buyers pulled forward at a very high cost).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 2002.

Note: The increase in 2007 was due to the method used to construct the index: a combination of lender failures, and borrowers filing multiple applications pushed up the index in 2007, even though activity was actually declining.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims: 502 Thousand

2009-11-12T08:30:00.006-05:00

The DOL reports weekly unemployment insurance claims decreased to 502,000:

In the week ending Nov. 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 502,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 514,000. [revised from 512,000] The 4-week moving average was 519,750, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average of 524,250.
...
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Oct. 31 was 5,631,000, a decrease of 139,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,770,000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased this week by 4,500 to 519,750, and is now 139,000 below the peak in April. The significant decline from the peak strongly suggests that initial weekly claims have peaked for this cycle.

The level is still very high suggesting continuing job losses.

Fannie, Freddie, Counterparty Risk and More

2009-11-11T22:08:00.004-05:00

Yesterday I posted some excerpt from Freddie Mac's 10-Q:

We believe that several of our mortgage insurance counterparties are at risk of falling out of compliance with regulatory capital requirements, which may result in regulatory actions that could threaten our ability to receive future claims payments, and negatively impact our access to mortgage insurance for high LTV loans.

The WSJ has more tonight, including the risks to Fannie Mae: Fannie, Freddie Warn on More Losses

Fannie Mae has about $109.5 billion of mortgage-insurance coverage in force ... Freddie Mac had $63.4 billion in mortgage insurance and $12.2 billion in bond insurance.

And this a key sentence:

The reduction in private insurance coverage has contributed to the rise in the volume of loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration ...

Instead of using private mortgage insurance for loans greater than 80% LTV, low down payment borrowers are now using FHA insurance.

That will probably end well ...

Also - the WSJ has more on the new FDIC "Prudent Commercial Real Estate Loan Workouts" guidance issued Oct 30th: Banks Hasten to Adopt New Loan Rules. Here is the new FDIC guidance that states performing loans "made to creditworthy borrowers" will not require write downs "solely because the value of the underlying collateral declined".

BofE's Mervyn King: Worst Over, "Long hard haul" Ahead

2009-11-11T19:25:00.005-05:00

From The Times: The worst is over, says Bank of England Governor

Better-than-expected unemployment figures and a rosier growth forecast from the Bank of England raised hopes yesterday that Britain was beginning to claw its way towards economic recovery.
...
Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank, said Britain had “only just started along the road to recovery” and that it would be “a long hard haul” back to regain the level of activity of two years ago before the financial crisis hit.

The following graphs are from the BofE November 2009 Inflation Report. The first graph shows the projections for GDP.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Note that GDP isn't expect to return to pre-recession levels until sometime in 2011 (mean estimate).

Note from BofE: To the left of the first vertical dashed line, the distribution reflects the likelihood of revisions to the data over the past; to the right, it reflects uncertainty over the evolution of GDP growth in the future. The second dashed line is drawn at the two-year point of the projection.

The second graph shows the projections for inflation.

The BofE expects a short-term increase in inflation because of higher oil prices, but then below trend inflation through most of 2011.

Note that the line is drawn at the 2% target inflation rate (not zero).

From the BofE: Price stability is defined by the Government’s inflation target of 2%.

WSJ on Permanent Modifications

2009-11-11T16:30:00.001-05:00

Ruth Simon at the WSJ has some details on permanent modifications: Mortgage Program Gathers Steam After Slow Start

The administration won't release figures on completed modifications until December, but so far it appears that very few trial modifications are becoming permanent, often because of a lack of documentation.
...
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said last week that more than 92,000 of its customers have made at least three trial payments under the program, but just 26% of them had submitted all the required documents for a permanent fix.
...
At Morgan Stanley's Saxon Mortgage Services, about 26,000 of the 39,000 borrowers in the program have made more than three trial payments. Roughly 500 have received completed modifications.
emphasis added

Diani Olick at CNBC wrote yesterday:

Insiders however tell me that a lot of that paperwork has to do with those so-called "stated-income" loans ...

In my list of possible upside surprises / downside risks for the economy, the percent of permanent modifications is related to the #1 downside risk. If few of these modifications are successful, there could be a flood of foreclosures on the market next year.