Increased Inventory Weighs on Prices for Apartment and Row Homes

Inventory levels in June continued to climb compared to both last month and last year. By month’s end, total inventory reached 6,941 units—returning to figures last seen in 2021, before Calgary’s population growth surge. Although sales remained aligned with long-term averages, they have dipped from recent highs. This, combined with a higher rate of new listings than sales, has driven inventory growth.

All housing types experienced inventory increases, but the most significant were seen in apartment and row-style properties, both of which saw supply levels exceed long-term trends by over 30%. In contrast, inventory levels for detached and semi-detached homes were only slightly above average.

“Rental, resale, and new home markets all saw improved supply, giving buyers more options,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “This added choice, coupled with stalled lending rates, economic uncertainty, and potential price corrections, is causing many buyers to hold off. These factors are putting downward pressure on home prices—particularly for apartment and row-style homes.”

Calgary’s unadjusted benchmark price in June was $586,200—down from last month and more than three per cent lower than June 2024. The overall price decline is largely due to weaker prices in the apartment and row segments. Detached home prices held relatively steady, while semi-detached homes were still slightly up compared to last year.

Apartment and row homes are now in buyer’s market territory with nearly four months of supply, leading to sharper price declines. Detached and semi-detached homes remain in relatively balanced conditions. While market dynamics have shifted, Calgary’s home prices remain well above where they were four years ago.

Detached Homes

Detached sales totalled 1,194 units in June—down six per cent from both the previous month and June 2024. The drop was most evident in higher-priced homes, which are facing increased competition from new builds. Geographically, the most significant sales declines occurred in the City Centre and North East (both over 20%), while the West and South East districts saw year-over-year gains.

Inventory and new listings increased across most price ranges and neighbourhoods. However, only the North East is currently showing buyer-favourable conditions, which led to a four per cent price drop from June 2024. The benchmark price for detached homes in Calgary sat at $764,300—less than one per cent below last month and last year.

Semi-Detached Homes

Sales in this category continued to slow in June, contributing to a year-to-date decline of nearly 12%. At the same time, rising new listings supported inventory growth and pushed the market toward balance, with a current months-of-supply of 2.6—an improvement from the tight conditions last year.

This broader selection has eased price growth. June’s benchmark price for semi-detached homes was $696,400, flat from last month and up just over one per cent year-over-year. Price trends varied by district—City Centre prices are now over three per cent higher than last year and at all-time highs, while the North, North East, and East saw price declines of over two per cent compared to last year.

Row Homes

June saw a continued rise in new listings outpacing sales, pushing the sales-to-new listings ratio down to 50%. This trend led to inventory increasing to 1,167 units, with months-of-supply now above three months. Conditions vary by area—from nearly six months of supply in the North East to just 2.5 months in the North West.

Higher supply relative to demand is dragging prices down. June’s benchmark price was $450,300, down from last month and three per cent below June 2024. Price impacts vary—City Centre saw only a one per cent drop from last year’s peak, while the North East reported a nearly six per cent year-over-year decline.

Apartment Condominiums

Both new listings and sales dipped in June compared to last month and last year. Yet, with 1,024 new listings and just 532 sales, inventories continued to rise, pushing months-of-supply to nearly four months. Lower international migration is cooling demand just as supply increases, especially affecting apartment-style properties.

These conditions have led to further price declines. The June benchmark price was $333,500—down more than three per cent from June 2024. Prices fell across all districts, with the largest declines in the North East, North, and South East.

Regional Market Highlights

Airdrie

Detached sales dropped sharply, bringing total sales to 164 units. Meanwhile, 324 new listings caused the sales-to-new listings ratio to fall to 51%—Airdrie’s lowest June ratio since 2018. The resulting inventory increase pushed months-of-supply above three for the first time since 2020. Home prices declined for the second straight month, with June’s benchmark at $538,300—nearly three per cent below last year.

Cochrane

While detached and semi-detached sales rose, reductions in row and apartment sales kept total June sales flat year-over-year at 101 units. With 171 new listings, the sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 59%, slowing inventory growth and keeping months-of-supply just under three. Despite balanced conditions, prices edged up, reaching $593,700—up nearly one per cent from last month and four per cent year-over-year.

Okotoks

Although still higher than last year, both sales and new listings declined in June. This lifted the sales-to-new listings ratio to 87%, limiting further inventory increases and keeping months-of-supply below two. Tight local conditions persist, though broader regional supply has likely tempered price gains. June’s benchmark price was $632,800—flat month-over-month and up nearly three per cent from last year.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

According to the report, elevated lending rates are expected to weigh on sales in 2023, bringing levels down from the record high in 2022. However, with forecasted sales of 25,921 in 2023, levels are still expected to be higher than the activity reported before the pandemic.

“Higher commodity prices, recent job growth, record high migration and relative affordability are expected to help offset some of the impacts higher lending rates are having on housing demand. At the same time, we are entering the year with low supply levels which are expected to prevent significant price declines in our market,” said Lurie.

Supply levels declined to the lowest levels seen in over a decade as gains in higher price properties did not offset the supply declines occurring in lower-priced homes. This has left our market in a situation where lower-priced properties still face sellers’ market conditions while higher-priced homes are seeing more balanced to buyers’ market conditions.

The shift between supply and sales by price ranges is expected to create divergent trends in prices depending on property type and price range. Overall, price declines in the upper end of the market are expected to offset gains reported in the lower ranges, causing an annual decline of less than one percent.

“With much of the pandemic behind us, 2023 reflects more of an adjustment into more typical conditions and a pause on price gains following 12 percent growth in 2022. While other markets in the country are forecasted to see more significant price and sale declines in 2023, Calgary did not face the same gains as those markets, as prices only recovered from the 2014 highs in 2021,” added Lurie.

Click here for the full CREB® 2023 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report.

City of Calgary, March 1, 2022 –  

“Sales have been somewhat restricted by the lack of supply choice in the market. While sellers did respond with a record level of new listings this month, the demand has been so strong that the housing market continues to remain undersupplied causing further price gains,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

The total residential benchmark price for the city rose by nearly six percent over January levels and was over 16 percent higher than levels recorded last February. Much of the growth has been driven by the detached segment of the market which has not seen conditions this tight in over 15 years.

This is the fourth consecutive month that the market has dealt with conditions that are far tighter than what the city experienced last spring. While the gains in new listings will help provide choice to purchasers and eventually support more balanced conditions, it will take some time to work through the demand in the market.

Detached

For the third consecutive month, the months of supply in the detached sector have remained below one month. The limited supply and persistently strong demand have placed significant upward pressure on prices. As of February, the benchmark price reached $596,400, which is nearly $50,000 higher than prices seen at the end of 2021 and over $90,000 higher than February 2021 prices. Price gains have occurred in every district of the city with year-over-year gains pushing above 20 percent in the North, South and South East districts.

After the first two months of the year, sales growth has been the strongest in the $600,000 to $1,000,000 price range, as this is where there was the largest gain in new listings. Overall, conditions remain exceptionally tight across all price ranges, with less than one month of supply occurring for all homes priced under $1,000,000 over the first two months of the year.

Semi-Detached

The record number of new listings for February was met with record-high February sales, doing little to ease the pressure in this segment of the market. The months of supply dropped to one month, something that has not happened in February since 2006.

The persistent and exceptionally tight conditions caused further upward pressure on prices. Thanks to gains across every district, the semi-detached unadjusted benchmark price reached $461,400 in February, which is nearly five per cent higher than last month and 16 percent higher than levels recorded in February 2021.

Row

Lack of supply choice in competing property types drove many consumers to consider row-style properties. However, following several months of strong sales relative to new listings, inventory levels have also trended down relative to what we traditionally see at this time of year. With 537 sales in February and 535 units in inventory, the months of supply dropped to one month for the first time since early 2007.

The persistent sellers’ market conditions caused steep monthly price gains across most districts of the city. The largest month gains occurred in the North East, North and West end of the city. Despite recent gains, prices remain shy of previous highs in all districts except the West.

Apartment Condominium

After falling behind other property types, the apartment condominium sector recorded a surge in sales this month, reaching record highs for February. New listings also improved but did little to cause any significant change to inventory levels. The months of supply dipped below two months and was the tightest seen in the apartment condo sector since 2007.

The recent tightness has supported some upward pressure in prices this month. However, price gains are significantly lower than the other property types and prices continue to remain over 14 percent below previous highs. While this segment of the market has not experienced the same supply constraints as other property types, if conditions remain this tight, we could see more substantial shifts toward price recovery.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Record high new listings in February enabled sales to reach a record high. With 385 new listings and 289 sales, the sales to new listings ratio fell to 75 percent, which is the first time it dropped below 80 percent since spring of last year. While the recent gains provided some monthly uplift in inventory levels, supply remains exceptionally low, and the months of supply have remained below one month for the fourth consecutive month.

Persistently tight market conditions especially in the detached and semi-detached sectors have driven significant price growth in the market. In February, the unadjusted detached price reached $490,800, nearly six percent over last month and 22 percent higher than last year’s levels.

Cochrane

New listings reached a record monthly high in February. However, sales nearly matched the levels of new listings causing inventories to face further declines and the months of supply to fall to the lowest levels ever recorded at less than half of the month of supply. This is the fourth consecutive month with the months of supply has been below one month and the sellers’ market conditions are placing significant upward pressure on prices, especially for detached and semi-detached properties.

In February, the unadjusted detached benchmark price reached $548,400, nearly seven percent higher than last month and over 21 percent higher than levels recorded last February. Price gains have occurred across all property types; however, apartment-style properties continue to record prices below previous highs seen back in 2007.

Okotoks

Like other markets, gains in new listings helped support record levels of sales for February. However, the gains in new listings were not enough to support any substantial change in the low inventory situation. With only 56 units in inventory at the end of the month, this is the lowest February inventory seen since 2006. Strong sales combined with low inventory caused the months of supply to ease further and remain below one month for the third consecutive month.

The persistent tight market conditions caused a surge in prices. In February, the benchmark price for a detached home reached $554,900, nearly eight percent higher than last month and over 15 percent higher than last February.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

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For the full report, please download CREB

The pace of growth and level of sales have eased from the record highs seen in the second quarter, but with 6,628 sales, this was the best third quarter since 2014.

Much of the strength in demand was likely driven by the low-lending-rate environment and increased savings among those whose incomes were not impacted by COVID-19 shutdowns.

“Sales have slowed from the record pace seen earlier this year, but some of this slowdown was likely related to limited improvements on the supply side of the market,” said CREB^® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“Supply-demand balances improved for buyers compared to what we saw in the spring, but the market continued to favour the seller in the third quarter”.

The number of new listings coming onto the market has increased compared to last year. However, the quarterly decline in new listings outpaced the pullback in sales, causing supply levels to trend down in the quarter and remain lower than last year’s levels.

“Persistently tight conditions have supported price gains in the market, with new record highs set in both the detached and semi-detached sectors,” said Lurie.

“However, with fewer supply challenges facing the apartment sector of the market, price gains there have not been enough to erase the declines recorded over the past six years.”

In Calgary, the residential benchmark price rose by one percent compared with the previous quarter and sits over nine percent higher than prices recorded in the third quarter of last year.

Meanwhile, many of the areas outside of Calgary city limits have seen exceptionally strong sales and supply that have not kept pace with demand. For many of these areas, lack of supply has contributed to steeper price gains than what has been seen in the city, narrowing the price gap between the two.

“While sales activity in the fall tends to be slower than in the spring months, the continued strong sales are likely being driven by consumers who were unable to transact earlier in the year when supply levels had not yet adjusted to demand,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “The market continues to favour the seller, but conditions are not as tight as they were earlier this year.”

Inventory levels in September eased to 5,607 units, keeping the months of supply below three months. However, there is significant variation depending on property type and the tightest conditions continue to be in the detached market, with under two months of supply. At the same time, the apartment condominium sector is not facing the same level of supply challenges, with nearly five months of inventory available based on current demand levels.

Supply adjustments have helped ease the upward pressure on home prices. Prices have eased slightly relative to a few months ago, but they remain well above levels recorded earlier in the year. As of September, the total residential benchmark price in Calgary was $457,900, over eight per cent higher than levels recorded last year.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

Calgary recorded 1,268 sales this month, a significant gain relative to last year and 30 per cent higher than longer-term trends. Sales this month improved across all price ranges except homes priced under $400,000. However, the decline in sales in the lower price range is likely related to limited supply choice.

On a year-to-date basis, prices have improved across all districts, with gains that range from a low of five per cent in the City Centre to nearly twelve per cent in the South East. The City Centre is the only district where prices remain below previous highs. The September detached benchmark price of $537,500 has trended down slightly from the record high set in July, but this has not erased earlier gains, as it remains nearly 10 per cent higher than last year.

Semi-Detached

With less supply choice in the lower price ranges of the detached market, many consumers have turned to the semi-detached sector. With 2,005 sales so far this year, year-to-date sales are over 45 per cent higher than long-term trends and have reached new record highs. The improvement in sales was, in part, related to the improvements in new listings. The sales-to-new-listings ratio in this sector has averaged below 70 per cent over the past several months. This is nowhere near as tight as the detached sector, which has averaged 80 per cent.

While conditions have not been as tight in the semi-detached sector, there have still been substantial price gains this year. As of September, the benchmark price was $424,900, slightly lower than last month, but over eight per cent higher than last year’s levels. Like the detached sector, the semi-detached sector’s slowest price growth has occurred in the City Centre. On a year-to-date basis, prices remained below previous highs in the City Centre, North East and South districts.

Row

With 318 sales this month, year-to-date sales pushed up to 3,057 units, which is 62 per cent above long-term trends and on pace to hit record levels this year. Sales have risen across every district, with the largest growth recorded in the South East district.

While new listings did improve this month, it was not enough to prevent further declines in Inventory levels. The months of supply remained relatively low at less than three months, which is well below traditional levels for this time of year. Tighter conditions have supported price growth across all districts so far in 2021. However, unlike the detached and semi-detached sectors, row prices remain below previous highs across all districts in the city.

Apartment Condominium

A boost in new listings this month translated into some gains in sales activity. However, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 58 per cent, inventories still trended up relative to the previous month and last year’s levels.

The months of supply remained just below five months in September, far lower than levels recorded last year and over the past five years. Conditions have generally been more balanced for this property type compared with other sectors, preventing strong price gains. On a year-to-date basis, citywide benchmark prices improved by nearly three per cent, but they remain over 14 per cent lower than previous highs.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

The Airdrie market has faced extremely tight conditions throughout 2021 and supply constraints continued to place some limits on sales this month. New listings slowed in September to 179 units and there were 166 sales. As a result, the sales-to-new-listings ratio remained above 90 per cent and inventories trended down.

The months of supply has remained under two months since February, translating into steady price gains throughout most of this year. As of September, the benchmark price reached $389,700, which is similar to last month, but over 13 per cent higher than levels recorded last year. Much of the growth has been driven by detached homes.

Cochrane

For the second month in a row, sales outpaced new listings coming onto the market, causing inventories to fall to the lowest levels recorded in over a decade.

While conditions have remained exceptionally tight, with just over one month of supply, detached home prices have dipped slightly relative to a few months ago. This could be related to added competition coming from the new-home market. However, as of September, detached prices have increased by more than nine per cent compared to last year.

Okotoks

Sales in Okotoks this month slowed relative to last year. Despite the decline this month, year-to-date sales remain at record-high levels. Inventory levels remain exceptionally low, and the months of supply stayed below two months in September.

The pace of price growth this month has slowed, but the year-to-date detached benchmark price in the town has improved by nearly 11 per cent compared to last year.

Links updated below:

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

Inventory rises, but sellers’ market conditions persist

(Links updated) 

City of Calgary, June 1, 2021 –

With 2,989 sales, housing market activity hit a new May record.

Despite strong levels of sales, they did trend down relative to last month. Additionally, there were 4,562 new listings, causing seasonally adjusted inventory levels to increase over the last month.

“The recent gains in prices have encouraged more homeowners to list their homes and take advantage of the current market situation,” said CREB^® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“However, the inventory gains are still not enough to offset the demand growth and the market continues to favour the seller. Prices are rising, but they are still recovering in our market from previous highs in 2014. Only detached and semi-detached home prices in certain districts and communities have recovered to the level of previous monthly highs.”

The months of supply did trend up slightly this month to just over two months, but it was not enough to halt the upward pressure on prices. The unadjusted benchmark price in May reached $455,200. This is one percent higher than last month and nearly 11 percent higher than prices recorded last year.

Sales have been rising across all product types, but homes priced above $600,000 represent a larger-than-usual share of all sales. The upper end of the market only reflected 16 percent of city sales last May, compared with this year where it now reflects nearly 26 percent of all sales.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

Seasonally adjusted figures show detached home sales trending down slightly from last month, but levels remained the best recorded for May.

Due to relatively strong new listings, inventories are trending up relative to both the previous month and the previous year. This caused the months of supply to increase to 1.7 months and reflects some easing of the extremely tight market conditions seen over the past several months. However, the detached market continues to favour the seller and prices continue to rise.

Detached home prices rose across each district, with the largest year-over-year gains occurring in the North, North West and South East districts.

The gains in prices have been supporting price recovery for detached homes. As of May, only the City Centre and North East districts have seen prices remain below previous highs.

Semi-Detached

Year-to-date sales totalled 1,169 units, which is the strongest five-month total on record for this product type. Despite some adjustments in new listings, the sales-to-new-listings ratio rose to nearly 75 per cent.

Overall, the months of supply remained below two months for semi-detached housing, supporting further price gains on a monthly and year-over-year basis.

Benchmark prices have seen double-digit price gains compared to last year’s levels in all districts except the City Centre.

The highest gains have occurred in the South East, South and North districts. While the city total is showing a recovery in price based on monthly levels, there are several districts where prices continue to remain below their previous highs.

Row

Inventory levels trended up compared to last month and levels seen last year. This is due to further gains in new listings relative to sales and caused the months of supply to rise to 2.5 months.

However, conditions continue to favour the seller, which is causing further price gains this month. The unadjusted benchmark citywide price totalled $296,400. This is a one percent increase over last month and nearly eight percent higher than last year.

Prices continue to improve across most districts, but they remain well below previous highs. Depending on the location, prices remain anywhere from five to 20 percent below previous highs.

Apartment Condominium

Year-to-date condominium sales totalled 1,659 units.

This is the highest number of sales seen since 2014. Despite the improvements, seasonally adjusted sales did trend down relative to last month.

Recent price increases are likely supporting some of the strength in new listings. While levels have been trending down compared to a few months ago, they do remain elevated based on what we typically see in May. As the sales-to-new-listings ratio eased to 48 percent, we saw inventories trend up this month, pushing the months of supply to over five months.

Slightly higher supply levels compared to sales did impact the pace of monthly gains in the benchmark price. However, May prices remain nearly five percent higher than last year’s levels. Price movements also varied depending on location, but no district has seen prices recover to previous highs.

Currently, the citywide price remains nearly 16 percent below 2014 levels.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Sales activity in Airdrie continues to increase, trending up over last month and hitting a new May record high. Meanwhile, new listings have not kept pace and trended down from last month.

This has caused the sales-to-new-listings ratio to rise to 95 percent this month, the highest level seen since the end of last year. This caused inventory levels to trend down to the lowest levels seen in May since 2014.

Unlike Calgary, there has been no lull in the Airdrie market and the months of supply fell to just over one month, causing further price gains.

After 11 consecutive months of increasing prices, the May benchmark price totalled $379,000, nearly 12 percent higher than last year’s levels. While prices have not recovered across all product types, detached home prices have hit a new high at $425,100.

Cochrane

Sales this month are at record levels for the month, but they did trend down compared to last month. However, this could be related to the low levels of new listings in contrast to high market demand. The sales-to-new-listings ratio dropped when compared with last month, but at 82 percent it did little to change the inventory situation in the market. There were only 180 units in inventory and the months of supply was 1.5 months. This is well below levels typically seen this time of year.

Persistent sellers’ market conditions are causing further price gains in the market. The unadjusted benchmark price rose to $451,700 in May. This is nearly three percent higher than last month and over nine percent higher than last year’s levels. This also reflects a full recovery in prices, fueled by the detached and semi-detached property types.

Okotoks

Year-to-date sales in Okotoks are at record levels. New listings have also been generally on the rise, but this has not been enough to push the market out of sellers’ market conditions, which continue to push prices upwards.

The unadjusted benchmark price rose to $483,400 in May. This is a significant gain over last month’s price and is nearly 14 percent higher than last year’s levels.

With 12 consecutive months of price increases month over month, prices in this market have recovered relative to previous highs.

However, this is primarily driven by the detached properties in the market.

Links updated below: 

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

“Despite entering the third wave of COVID-19, there is more optimism of economic recovery when the economy re-opens,” said CREB^® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“However, the recent surge in home sales could be a result of potential buyers wanting to enter the market before any further changes occur in prices, interest rates and lending policy. This could erode some of their purchasing power.”

Recent price gains and tight market conditions have also encouraged many sellers to list their home this month. However, demand was strong enough to absorb the additional supply, ensuring the market continues to favour the seller.

With 4,670 new listings coming onto the market in April, inventory levels trended up relative to last month and last year. With the elevated sales, the months of supply remains below two months.

Persistently tight market conditions are causing significant upward pressure on prices. For the second consecutive month, the unadjusted benchmark price rose by more than two per cent compared with the previous month and more than nine per cent compared with last year’s levels.

While sales improved across most price ranges, product priced above $600,000 represented 25 per cent of the sales that occurred this month. This is a significant increase from last year when they only represented 12 per cent of sales. The shift in distribution is causing both the average and median prices to record double-digit year-over-year price gains.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

Detached homes hit a new record high for the month with 2,046 sales in April.

Gains in new listings helped support stronger sales, but they did little to ease the persistent sellers’ market conditions. The months of supply remained well below two months in this segment, which is contributing to a steady climb in prices.

As of April, the benchmark price rose to $529,100. This is nearly 11 per cent higher than last year and more than $30,000 higher than levels recorded at the start of 2021. The recent gains were enough to push the benchmark price to a new high, reflecting full price recovery from 2014 levels.

Strong price gains occurred across most districts in the city thanks to persistently tight conditions. However, the pace of price adjustments did vary depending on location. The City Centre district has seen the slowest rebound and prices remain nearly seven per cent below previous highs.

Semi-Detached

Following several months of strong sales, year-to-date sales reached record highs in April with 888 sales.

This is the only property type to reach record highs based on year-to-date figures. Gains occurred across every district and price range. Like the other sectors, gains in new listings were not enough to move the market out of sellers’ conditions, as the months of supply remained below two months.

The tight market conditions supported price growth across all districts, with the strongest year-over-year gains occurring in the North, North West, and South East districts. In April, year-over-year price gains in these districts were above 12 per cent, which was enough to support new monthly record-high prices.

Row

After the first four months of the year, row sales totalled 1,217 units. This the best start to the year since 2007, and well above long-term averages.

New listings in this sector have also been on the rise, causing inventories to trend up. Supply has risen above levels recorded last April, but strong sales compared to inventory levels have caused the months of supply to remain just above two months. This is significantly lower than the longer-term average, which is closer to four months.

While these conditions have only persisted over the past three months, prices have been slower to climb. As of April, row benchmark prices climbed to $293,400. Prices have been trending up across all districts of the city, but they remain well below previous highs.

Apartment Condominium

Further improvements in April resulted in 1,280 year-to-date sales in this sector, which is the strongest sales seen over the past six years.

New listings also remained high compared to typical levels and inventories continued to rise. There was more inventory in the market, but the improvement in sales did cause further reductions in the months of supply.

In April, the months of supply was just over four months. This is fairly consistent with longer-term trends and reflects the most balanced conditions seen for some time. With less oversupply in the market, prices have been trending up and in April the benchmark price was $251,900. This is more than three per cent higher than last year.

Price improvements did vary by location and it will take some time for prices to recover to previous highs.

For example, there was a two per cent year-over-year increase in the City Centre, where most of the condo sales occur, but prices remain nearly 17 per cent lower than previous highs.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Sales activity remained strong in April, as purchasers took advantage of the gains in new listings this month. The recent rise in new listings has caused inventories to increase relative to the past several months, but it did little to ease the sellers’ market conditions that have existed since last year.

Persistent sellers’ market conditions placed upward pressure on prices, which as of April sit nearly 10 per cent higher than last year.

Prices started improving last year, but over the past several months the months of supply have been just over one month, contributing to the faster pace of price growth this month.

As of April, the benchmark price was $365,100. This is only slightly lower than record highs, due to lower price figures from the apartment and row sectors. Both the detached and semi-detached sectors have seen prices fully recover to previous highs.

Cochrane

April sales rose again compared with last month’s record highs.

New listings also remained elevated, but it was not enough to meet the demand, as the 178 sales outpaced the 161 new listings. Inventory fell to 172 units, which is the lowest April level recorded since 2007.

The months of supply dropped below one month in April, which is causing steep price gains. The unadjusted benchmark price in April hit a new record high at $439,300. This is nearly four per cent higher than last month and eight per cent higher than last year’s levels.

Okotoks

Improvements in new listings this month were nearly matched by sales activity, keeping inventory low.

In April there were 108 units in inventory, which is over 50 per cent lower than typical levels for this month. The low inventory levels and strong sales caused the months of supply to fall to one month.

Like other areas, Okotoks is experiencing strong price growth. In April, the unadjusted benchmark price reached a new record high at $463,000. This is nearly three per cent higher than last month and over 11 per cent higher than prices recorded last year.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

The low-interest-rate environment, combined with pent-up demand and increased savings among those who remained employed throughout the pandemic, is supporting stronger-than-expected gains in resale sales activity.

By the end of the first quarter, there were 5,945 sales in Calgary, 43 per cent higher than the 10-year average and the best start to the year since 2007.

“Sales activity is currently exceeding expectations. However, rising prices are expected to support new listings growth and also impact the pace of sales growth especially if discount rates continue to rise. This will help eventually support more balanced conditions,” said CREB^® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

New listings rose to the highest first-quarter levels seen in over a decade, but it did little to move overall inventory levels, which averaged 4,687 units in the first quarter. This kept market conditions exceptionally tight, with citywide months of supply of just over two months.

The tightening conditions that started halfway through last year have caused prices to trend up, with the pace of growth rising in the first quarter of this year. This price growth was enough to push quarterly prices four per cent higher than the first quarter of last year.

“This price growth has been counterintuitive to many, considering the job loss and economic challenges that face this province and city. However, we also need to keep in mind that this is still a story of recovery for prices, which currently remain well below the highs recorded in 2014.”

For the full report, please download CREB^®’s Q1 2021 Calgary & Region Quarterly Update Report here.

This reflects the best February since 2014.

“Despite continued COVID-19 restrictions, housing activity continues to improve. Much of the strong sales activity is expected to be driven by exceptionally low mortgage rates,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“Confidence is also likely improving as vaccine rollouts are underway. Additionally, some of the worst fears concerning the energy sector are easing with recent gains in energy prices.”

New listings also improved in February, but the gap between new listings and sales narrowed. This is causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to rise to 65 per cent, keeping the months of supply well below three months.

Conditions are far tighter in the detached sector of the market, especially for product priced below $600,000, where strong sellers’ market conditions are present with less than two months of supply.

The market has faced relatively low inventory levels compared to sales for the past several months and prices continue to trend up. In February, the residential benchmark price rose over the previous month and currently sits four per cent above last years’ levels.

Detached product has the lowest months of supply and is also exhibiting the most significant gains in prices. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the apartment condominium segment still has a relatively high level of inventory compared to sales, which is impacting price recovery for this property type.

Calgary Sellers’s MARKET FACTS

Detached

Detached sales improved across every price range this month, but the lack of choice in the lower price ranges likely placed limits on the gains in sales.

New listings did rise, but it was not enough to prevent further tightening in the market, as the sales-to-new-listings ratio rose to 71 per cent and the months of supply fell to under two months. This is the lowest months of supply recorded in February since 2007.

Tighter market conditions occurred across all price ranges, but properties priced below $600,000 saw the months of supply fall to just above one month. These conditions are supporting significant price gains in the detached sector, which recorded a February benchmark price of $502,500. This is nearly two per cent higher than last month and five per cent higher than last year. It is also the first time since 2018 detached prices have risen above $500,000, and currently sits under five per cent below previous highs recorded in 2014.

Prices increased compared to last month and last year in every district of the city. However, the magnitude of those increases varied, with the largest year-over-year gains occurring in the South East district at nine per cent, and the lowest gains occurring in the City Centre at under two per cent.

Semi-Detached

Semi-detached sales in February recorded significant gains, pushing sales activity to the highest February levels seen in nearly 13 years. However, like the detached sector, the improvements in new listings were not enough to offset sales, ensuring this sector continues to favour the seller.

With lower levels of supply relative to sales, benchmark prices improved over both last year and last month. However, this was not consistent across all districts. The West district continues to see prices that remain over two per cent lower than last year’s levels. The strongest year-over-year price gains were reported in the South East and North districts.

Row

Despite a significant increase in new listings, improving sales offset the gains and the months of supply fell to three months.

Conditions for row properties are not as tight as what we have seen in both the detached and semi-detached sectors. However, they do reflect an improvement relative to the oversupplied conditions recorded last year. However, when considering activity by price range, pockets of oversupply persist in this market.

Citywide reductions in inventory relative to sales supported some price improvements in this segment. The benchmark price trended up from last month and currently sits just over one per cent higher than last year’s levels. Year-over-year gains did not occur across all districts, as prices remain lower than last year’s levels in the North, North West, South and South East districts.

Apartment Condominium

Driven by product priced mostly under $300,000, apartment condominium sales improved to best February levels recorded over the past six years.

However, the gain in sales was not enough to cause any significant changes in inventory levels. February inventory remained elevated compared to levels we typically see at this time of year.

While the months of supply has trended down in this sector, it remains above five months. This is preventing the same type of price recovery seen in other sectors. On a year-to-date basis, the benchmark price remains similar to levels recorded last year.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

February sales reached new record highs for the month.

The largest gain in sales occurred in the $400,000 – $500,000 price range. New listings also increased, but the sales-to-new listings ratio remained elevated at 71 per cent and the months of supply dropped to under two months in February. This is the tightest level seen since 2014.

Persistent sellers’ market conditions have resulted in further price gains in the market. The benchmark price has trended up for the past eight months and, as of February, it is over seven per cent higher than last year’s levels. Most of the price growth has been driven by the detached sector.

Cochrane

Cochrane sales more than doubled compared to last February. This represents the strongest February ever recorded for the town.

New listings also rose for the month, but it was not enough to cause any substantial change in inventory levels and the months of supply fell to below two months. This is the lowest months of supply for February seen since the record low in 2006.

Tight conditions supported price growth in February, as the benchmark price rose to $413,700, a four per cent increase from last year’s levels.

Okotoks

New listings have been trending up from the lows seen at the end of 2020, helping to support a significant improvement in sales in February. February sales reach levels not seen for the month since the record high in 2007.

Inventory levels remain exceptionally low relative to sales and the months of supply dropped below two months. Like other towns around Calgary, the sellers’ market conditions caused prices to trend up. In February, the benchmark price reached $442,600, nearly five per cent higher than levels recorded last year.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

Sales activity improved across all product types and across all price ranges.

“Discount lending rates are exceptionally low, which is likely attracting all types of buyers back into the market,” said CREB^® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“New listings in the market were also slightly higher than what was available over the past two months, which is providing more options to purchasers.”

January’s new listings were 2,246 relative to the 1,208 sales in the market, causing inventories to edge up over December levels. These types of movements are typical for January, but 2021 is starting the year with 4,035 units in inventory. This is far lower than in the past six years.

Benchmark prices remained at levels relatively consistent with prices recorded at the end of 2020, but they reflect a year-over-year gain just below two per cent.

Average and median prices recorded higher year-over-year gains, likely due to larger gains in sales in the higher end of the market. Those segments do not have the same inventory constraints as  lower-priced product.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

January sales activity improved across most prices ranges. However, limited inventories for homes priced below $500,000 ensured conditions in those segments remained firmly in sellers’ market territory. This likely prevented stronger sales improvements in this portion of the market.

However, with better supply options at the upper end of the market, sales activity improved.

The citywide months of supply was just over two months, a significant drop from last January where levels were nearly five months. The tighter conditions in this segment supported further gains in prices, which currently sit nearly three per cent above last year’s levels.

Year-over-year price gains range significantly throughout the districts of the city. The largest gains occurred in the North and South East districts. Prices remained relatively unchanged over the previous year in the City Centre and West districts.

Semi-Detached

January sales activity rose over last year’s levels due to gains across most districts. The West end district continues to see slower activity than the previous year.

New listings improved from December levels. This is causing some monthly gains in inventories, but inventory remains well below levels seen last year and the months of supply remained below three months.

Price activity did vary depending on location. Year over year, prices remain over one per cent higher than last year’s levels thanks to strong gains in the North and South East districts. However, persistently high levels of inventory compared to sales contributed to the significant price decline occurring in the West district.

Row

Thanks to gains across nearly every district, sales activity improved compared to the previous year. Unlike the detached and semi-detached sectors, row new listings trended up relative to last month and levels recorded last year.

The rise did result in some monthly gains in inventory levels and caused the months of supply to rise to nearly five months. This is not entirely unusual activity for January. The months of supply remains well below last year’s levels at nearly seven months.

Citywide row pricing remained relatively stable compared to last year and last month. However, there was significant variation depending on location. Year-over-year price gains exceeded four per cent in the City Centre, West and East districts.  Meanwhile, prices eased by over three per cent in the North and South East districts.

Apartment Condominium

For the third month in a row, apartment condominium sales rose above levels recorded in the previous year. January levels are the best we have seen since 2014. While new listings have eased compared to last year, they recorded a significant jump over December levels, keeping inventories elevated relative to sales activity.

While prices remain well below previous highs, there were some districts that recorded year-over-year gains. The strongest gains occurred in the North East, East and South districts. However, prices continue to fall in the City Centre, West and South East districts.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Sales activity stayed strong in January. With 103 sales, this was the best January since 2007. New listings improved compared to last month, resulting in some monthly gains in inventory levels. However, the months of supply has remained relatively tight.

With conditions continuing to favour the seller, benchmark prices trended up relative to last month. At $349,100, benchmark prices are over five per cent higher than levels recorded last January. The strongest year-over-year price gains occurred in the detached and semi-detached sectors.

Cochrane

Cochrane sales improved from last January’s levels, but we also saw a notable rise in new listings. This caused the sales-to-new-listings ratio to ease to 63 per cent.

This is a significant improvement over last month, which saw sales levels exceed the level of new listings in the market. Overall, conditions remain relatively tight, with the months of supply staying below three months.

Benchmark prices recorded year-over-year gains across all property types. Overall, benchmark prices remained over four per cent higher than last January’s levels.

Okotoks

After several months of relatively weak new listings, January saw some pickup in new listings relative to the last quarter of 2020.

Sales remained relatively consistent with last year’s levels, causing the months of supply to trend up to three months. This is higher than the extremely tight levels seen at the end of 2020, but it is still significantly lower than the six-plus months recorded in January of last year.

Benchmark prices remained stable compared to last month, but they are over three per cent higher than last January. The gains were driven by the detached sector, as prices continue to ease in the semi-detached, row and apartment sectors.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

“Housing demand over the second-half of 2020 was far stronger than anticipated and nearly offset the initial impact caused by the shutdowns in spring. Even with the further restrictions imposed in December, it did not have the same negative impact on housing activity like we saw in the earlier part of the year,” said CREB^® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

Attractive interest rates along with prices that remain lower than several years ago have likely supported some of the recovery in the second half of the year. However, it is important to note that annual sales activity declined by one per cent compared to last year and remain well below long-term averages.

New listings in December increased by 11 per cent. However, the number of sales exceeded the number of new listings in December contributing to further declines in inventory.

Reductions in supply and improving demand in the second half of the year have contributed to some of the recent price improvements in the market. However, the recent gain in the benchmark price was not enough to offset earlier pullbacks as the annual residential benchmark price in Calgary declined by one per cent over last year.

The pandemic has resulted in a significant shift in economic conditions, yet the housing market is entering 2021 in far more balanced conditions than we have seen in over five years. This will help provide some cushion for the market moving into 2021, but conditions will continue to vary depending on price range, location, and product type.

More information about the 2021 housing market forecast for Calgary will be available at the CREB^® Forecast on Tuesday, January 26, 2021.

For more event details, please visit crebforecast.com.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

Stronger sales in the second half of the year were enough to offset earlier pullbacks as detached sales totalled 9,950, just slightly higher than last years’ levels. Despite the modest gain, detached sales activity remains at the lower levels recorded since the stress test was introduced in 2018.

Supply adjustments is causing sellers’ market conditions for detached homes across all districts except the West and City Centre. This has helped support some price recovery in the market over the past several months.

Annual city-wide price remains relatively flat compared to last year, but there were notable annual gains in both the South and South East districts which both recorded price gains of nearly two per cent. Despite some of the annual shifts seen, prices remain well below previous highs in all districts of the city.

Semi-Detached

Sales growth in the North East, North, West and South East district were offset by declines in the City Centre, North West, South and East districts. Sales this year of 1,663 were similar to levels recorded last year.

While sales did not improve across each district, there were reductions in supply across all districts and is helping to reduce the months of supply.

These reductions are starting to impact prices, but it was not enough to offset earlier pullbacks. City wide semi-detached prices eased by over one per cent in 2020, with the largest declines occurring in the City Centre, North West and West areas.

Row

Slower sales in the west district were not enough to offset the gains recorded in the rest of the city. Row sales totalled 2,145 in 2020, nearly two per cent higher than last years’ levels. Despite the gains, levels continue to remain below long-term averages for the city.

Rising sales were generally met with a reduction in supply. This is causing the months of supply to trend down, especially over the second half of the year.

The decline in the months of supply was enough to help support some stability in prices. However, the adjustment did not occur soon enough and annual prices eased by nearly two per cent compared to the previous year and remain nearly 14 per cent below previous highs.

Price adjustments did vary depending on location. The steepest decline occurred in the North East with a year-over-year decline of five per cent. The strongest gain occurred in the West district with a two per cent rise.

Apartment Condominium

Sales this month were the best December since 2014. However, it was not enough to offset earlier pullbacks as apartment condominium sales eased by ten per cent in 2020. This is the slowest year for apartment condo sales since 2001 and the only property type to record a significant annual decline in sales.

Unlike other property types, supply levels have not adjusted in the same way and this segment remains oversupplied. Prices have trended down over the past two months due to excess supply. On an annual basis, the benchmark price declined by over two per cent this year and is over 16 per cent below the highs set in 2015.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

December sales reached a new record high for the month. Improving sales throughout the second half of the year contributed to the annual sales of 1,407, a year-over-year gain of 18 per cent.

New listings also rose in December and is likely contributing to some of the monthly gains in sales. Overall, new listings have remained well below last year. Along with improving sales, this is causing inventories to decline.

Months of supply has remained below three months since June and prices have trended up. By December, the benchmark price had risen by nearly five per cent compared to last year.

On an annual basis, the gains in price were enough to offset the earlier pullbacks and is creating stability in prices. However, this was not the case for all product types. Detached prices rose by nearly two per cent on an annual basis. Benchmark prices for row and apartment style product eased by a respective seven and one per cent compared to last year.

Cochrane

Record sales in December contributed to the annual gain of 16 per cent, making it the best year of sales compared to the past five years. New listings in 2020 also eased compared to last year. Rising sales and less new listings on the market caused inventories to ease to the lowest levels recorded since 2014.

With months of supply of only two months, prices continued to trend up. December benchmark price was $419,900 and is a 5 per cent gain over last year. Prices have trended up over that past six months but remain relatively stable compared to last year. This is due to easing prices for higher density products offsetting gains in the detached sector.

Okotoks

Despite further declines in new listings, December sales improved. Year-to-date sales increased by nearly eight per cent. The lack of new listings and stronger sales caused inventories to drop to 63 homes in December, the lowest level for any month seen since 2006.

The lack of inventory and high demand has supported increasing prices for the second half of the year. As of December, the benchmark price was $434,700, nearly two per cent above last years’ levels. Despite the recent gains, 2020 benchmark prices remain over one per cent below last years’ levels.

However, this could be due to steeper price declines for semi, row and apartment style product.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

Sales growth over the past several months has been the strongest seen in the past five years, but the activity has not been strong enough to offset the pullbacks from the spring. Year-to-date sales remain over three per cent lower than last year’s levels.

New listings continue to slow, reducing inventory in the market. On a year-to-date basis, new listings have eased by nearly ten per cent and are at the lowest level recorded since 2001. This has reduced the oversupply that has been impacting the market for nearly five years.

“The gains in sales in the latter part of this year have been a bit surprising considering the job losses and unemployment rate in our city,” said CREB^® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“However, it is important to note that the shift to more balanced conditions has been mostly driven by the reduction of supply.”

Tighter conditions in the housing market have contributed to some of the recent gains in benchmark prices. As of November, the benchmark price was $423,600. This is nearly two per cent higher than last year’s levels.

However, conditions vary depending on price range. There is not a lot of supply for affordable homes in each product type because of high demand. This is likely causing differing price trends in the lower end of the market versus the higher end.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS 

Detached

November sales activity improved across every district, contributing to a year-over-year citywide increase of 26 per cent. Improving sales over the past six months have helped offset some of the pullbacks from earlier in the year, as year-to-date sales were only two per cent lower than last year’s levels.

Like other sectors, inventory in the detached market has also eased due to the sharp decline in new listings. This has kept the months of supply below three months for the past three months. The tighter market conditions are supporting price gains. As of November, the detached benchmark price improved by nearly three per cent compared to last year for a total of $492,000. However, prices did not improve across all districts, as the City Centre continues to record prices that are one per cent lower than last year’s levels.

Activity for this product type does vary significantly depending on location and price range. The pullback in new listings relative to sales has caused significant reductions in inventory for homes priced below $500,000. Higher price ranges have also seen some declining inventory, but the degree of decline has not been as significant. In fact, the market is exhibiting sellers’ market conditions for homes priced below $500,000, while still favouring the buyer for homes priced above $700,000.

Semi-Detached

Year-over-year gains in sales were met with slower new listings, resulting in inventory reductions and a month of supply of three months. While conditions are not as tight in the semi-detached market as they are in the detached market, the reductions in supply relative to demand were enough to support further monthly gains in the benchmark price.

As of November, the benchmark price was $395,100, which is one per cent higher than last year’s levels. Activity did vary depending on location, as price gains were the highest in the South East district, while prices remained just below last year’s levels in the City Centre.

There have also been notable differences within this market depending on price range. The months of supply has declined significantly for product priced below $400,000. This decline is likely contributing to some of the differing price trends throughout the districts of the city.

Row

Year-over-year gains in the row sector continued in November and were enough to cause year-to-date sales to remain at levels similar to last year. Bucking the trend from other sectors, new listings rose compared to last year, easing some of the downward pressure on inventory levels. The months of supply stayed above four months, higher than levels seen in both the detached and semi-detached sectors, but a significant improvement from the nearly six months of supply recorded last November.

Row prices also showed signs of stabilizing, as November prices remained comparable to last year’s levels. Despite some of the monthly gains, on a year-to-date basis, prices remain nearly two per cent lower than last year’s levels and have eased across all districts except the City Centre, West and East.

Apartment Condominium

Following seven months of year-over-year declines, apartment condo sales improved over last year’s levels. However, last November was an exceptionally weak month for apartment sales. Year-to-date apartment sales totalled 2,209, a 13 per cent decline from last year and nearly 30 per cent lower than longer-term averages.

New listings did ease slightly this month, placing some downward pressure on inventory that was missing earlier in the year. However, inventory remains higher than last year’s levels and the months of supply is still elevated at nearly eight months. The oversupply in this market continues to place downward pressure on prices, which not only eased relative to last month, but remain one per cent lower than last year’s prices. The only district to see some positive momentum is the North, where prices rose slightly compared to last year.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Sales continue to record strong gains in November as year-to-date sales reached 1,318, a 15 per cent increase over last year. The rise in sales was also met with a pullback in new listings. This iscausing further declines in inventory levels and is keeping the months of supply just over two months. This is the tightest months of supply figure recorded for November since 2014 where the months of supply was below two months. 

Persistently low months of supply, especially in the detached sector of the market continue to place upward pressure on prices. In November, the benchmark price was $342,900, trending up over last month and over two per cent above last year’s levels. 

Cochrane

For the sixth consecutive month, sales activity rose over last year’s levels causing year-to-date sales to total 651. This is a 12 per cent increase over last year. However, unlike other areas the level of new listings in Cochrane also rose. The months of supply rose to nearly four months. However, this is still relatively low for November as the town has typically averaged seven months over the past five years.

With generally tighter market conditions in the town, prices have trended up for the past six months. As of November, the benchmark price was $417,800 and is four per cent higher than last year. Despite the recent gains, year-to-date figures remain nearly one per cent below last year’s levels.

Okotoks

Despite the decline in new listings, sales continued to improve causing further inventory declines. Inventory in November dropped to 95 units and is nearly half the levels we typically see this time of year. With a sale to new listings ratio above 100 per cent and a months of supply of just over two months, this is one of the tightest Novembers recorded since 2014. 

The general tightness in the market has been driven by the detached sector and is the only category that has seen year-over-year gains in prices. As of November, the detached benchmark price was $441,100, nearly two per cent higher than last November. 

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

CREB’s Calgary Housing Report has reported the third-quarter activity was far better than original expectations, as sales activity in the city improved by nearly 12 percent over last year’s levels. 

Some of the shift in the third quarter reflects activity that likely would have occurred in the second quarter. The housing market also benefited from easing lending rates and previous price declines. Gains were driven by all property types except apartment condominiums. 

“As the economy started to re-open, we saw some improvements in the economic indicators,” said CREB^® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. 

“Most industries are not back to pre-pandemic levels, but over the past three months we have seen notable improvement across most industries.” 

The gains this quarter did not offset all of the earlier declines, but the year-to-date decline eased to nine percent. This is a significant improvement from the first half of the year, where sales were sitting 20 percent below last year’s levels. 

New listings were also on the rise. It was enough to cause inventories to trend up from the lower levels recorded earlier in the year, but inventories remain well below the levels recorded last year. 

Overall, the months of supply did tighten to levels well below the past two years. Improved supply/demand balances did support some modest improvements in prices, which trended up in the third quarter compared to the second quarter and remained only one percent below last year’s levels.

Current conditions in the housing market are surprising, but there are several reasons to still be cautious: 

• The current job market: Unemployment levels remain exceptionally high and there is added concern regarding additional job losses coming in the energy sector. If this situation persists, it could result in weaker demand and rising listings.
• The second wave of COVID-19 and further shutdowns: Widespread closures are currently not expected, but if they do occur, this could be problematic for many businesses that cannot survive a second shutdown.
• Government support: The housing market and overall economy have benefited from significant government income support programs, and banks allowing homeowners to defer their mortgage. As these benefits end, there is a risk that some households will not be able to keep their home, causing a rise in new listings and pushing up supply levels. If this occurs, it could erode some of the recent gains in pricing.

For more information, please download CREB^®‘s Q3 2020 Calgary & Region Quarterly Update Report here.

The month of July saw 1,547 units sold in Calgary, nearly five per cent below last year. New listings eased to 2,964 units, causing inventories to total 8,450 units. With more supply than demand, prices continued to edge down, with a citywide average of $435,200. This amounted to a month-over-month price decline of 0.30 per cent and year-over-year decline of 1.89 per cent.

“Despite some positive momentum in some aspects of our economy, our job market has continued to struggle as of late, with some easing in total employment levels over the past few months and persistently high unemployment rates,” said CREB^® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“Also, the Bank of Canada raised rates again in July. Rising costs, combined with a slow recovery, are weighing on the demand for resale homes in the city. At the same time supply remains high and is resulting in an oversupplied market.”

Citywide months of supply have risen for each property type and currently range from nearly five months in the detached sector to seven months in the apartment sector. These elevated levels have been placing pressure on prices in the city.

Detached benchmark home prices totaled $501,300 in July, down 0.4 per cent from last month and over two per cent from last year’s levels. Year-to-date average benchmark prices in the detached sector remain just below levels recorded last year.

The apartment ownership sector continues to see the steepest declines, with year-to-date benchmark prices averaging $257,343, three per cent below last year and nearly 14 per cent below 2014 highs.

“In a buyers’ market, it’s critical for all parties to have the most up-to-date information to make a fully informed decision, whether you are buying or selling,” said CREB^® president Tom Westcott.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

• Oversupply issues continue to worsen in each district of the city compared to last year. However, compared to historical conditions, conditions today remain better than in 2016 in both the West and City Centre districts.
• Year-to-date, the West and City Centre areas have recorded prices higher than last year’s levels and continue to edge towards price recovery. Benchmark prices in the West have averaged $733,329 this year, comparable to previous highs.
• City Centre benchmark prices have averaged $693,243, nearly three per cent below previous highs. Most districts have recorded detached prices that remain over four per cent below previous highs.

Apartment

• Easing new listings in the apartment condominium sector have prevented any further gains in the amount of inventory in the market.
• Supply levels remain elevated compared to sales, keeping year-to-date prices three per cent below last year’s levels and nearly 14 per cent below previous highs.
• Citywide inventory levels remain just below last year. July inventories edged down in the North East, North, North West, South and East areas of the city compared to the previous year.
• Levels remain elevated by historical standards, but any reductions in inventory can help reduce oversupply.

Attached

• Like the other sectors, attached sales have been easing this year, with 2,225 sales this year representing a 15 per cent decline over the previous year.
• Gains in new listings pushed up inventory levels and months of supply compared to last year.
• Citywide year-to-date semi-detached prices have eased by nearly one per cent compared to last year. Benchmark price changes have ranged from a three per cent decline in the North West district to a six per cent increase in the South district. Despite the annual gain this year in the South district, semi-detached prices remain nearly five per cent lower than that district’s peak.
• Year-to-date benchmark row prices have increased on a citywide basis due to gains in the City Centre, North and North West districts. The annual gain is a positive move towards recovery, but row prices remain well below previous highs in every district of the city.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

• 2018 Airdrie residential sales have totalled 732 units so far, which is 11 per cent lower than the same period last year. Sales are at the lowest level when compared to the same period in the past six years.
• Year-to-date new listings remain just above last year’s levels, totalling 1,600 units and reaching a new peak when compared to the same period in previous years. Total inventories in Airdrie have averaged 544 units this year, approximately 100 units higher than the same period in 2017.
• The rise in inventory, combined with easing sales, has caused months of supply to average over 5.2 months for the year, impacting prices.
• Detached benchmark prices have averaged $372,386 so far this year. This is 1.29 per cent lower than in 2017.

Cochrane

• Year-to-date residential sales in Cochrane totalled 380 units. Compared to the same period in 2017, this number has declined compared to last year. However, total sales continue to be above long-term averages and levels during 2015-16.
• New listings are also at historical highs and have reached a new peak of 862 residential units. This has pushed year-to-date average inventory levels up to monthly levels of 390 units and causing months of supply to average six months for this year.
• Despite gains in supply on the market, detached benchmark prices in Cochrane remain relatively stable. Year-to-date detached prices averaged $425,714, just above last year but still nearly four per cent below peak levels.

Okotoks

• Total residential sales in Okotoks have totalled 320 units so far in 2018. A decline over the previous year and below long-term trends.
• New listings remain elevated and comparable to periods in previous years. This has kept inventories at near-record levels, with year-to-date average levels being totalling 248 units.
• Months of supply have averaged 5.4 months this year, higher than historical standards. However, the elevated levels have not prevented prices from starting to recovery.Overall, year-to-date detached benchmark prices have averaged $436,786 this year, just above last year but nearly three per cent below peak levels.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

Residential home sales declined in February, but a decline in new listings helped keep prices steady this month.

Sales totaled 1.094 units in February, 18 per cent below last year’s activity. Easing sales occurred across all property types this month, which outpaced the sales growth that occurred in January. After the first two months of the year, sales activity remains well below longer-term averages.

“Housing market conditions are still adjusting to rising lending rates and changes in lending requirements. This process is expected to be bumpy, with demand adjustments leading the changes,” said CREB^® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“However, it is important to remember that it is early in the process and the impact on prices will ultimately be dependent on the supply response.”

A decline in new listings was not enough to prevent further gains in inventory levels, but it offset some of the impact of slower sales activity. In the detached sector, one of the largest declines in sales occurred in the $600,000 – $999,999 range, while this price range also recorded gains in new listings.

“This is a market where the fundamentals of a sound pricing strategy need to be understood by sellers. At the same time, savvy buyers typically have a clear understanding of how much of a mortgage they can get,” said CREB^® president Tom Westcott.

“With all the recent changes, potential purchasers should be obtaining pre-approvals so they understand exactly what they can afford prior to making an offer on a home. It also provides them flexibility in this market.”

Citywide benchmark prices totaled $434,300 in February, which is just above levels recovered last month, but comparable to levels recorded last year. While year-over-year price growth remained relatively stable in both the detached and attached markets, apartment prices remained three per cent below last year’s levels.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

Sales posted a modest gain in August, but a rise in new listings kept inventory levels elevated.

Inventories totaled 6,624 units, where over half were comprised of attached and apartment style properties. While inventories were 16 per cent higher than August 2016 levels, the slight rise in sales prevented further gains in the months-of-supply, which remain just above four months.

“Employment growth is contributing to the stability in sales activity, but it is not enough to meet the recent rise in listings and make a substantial dent in inventory levels,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“Unemployment rates remain elevated and job growth is mostly occurring outside the energy sector, slowing the recovery process. Broader economic improvements will be required prior to it translating into substantial improvements in the housing market.”

The second month of higher inventories compared to sales weighed on prices for the month. The unadjusted city wide benchmark price totaled $442,300 in August. This is 0.3 percent below last month, but remains nearly one per cent above last year’s levels. Overall total residential prices remain four per cent below peak levels.

“Buyers have several options in this market, and sellers need to continue to be realistic regarding the price they expect to receive for their home,” said CREB® president David P. Brown.

“While some of the buyers are re-entering the market, they are also considering all of their options prior to making a commitment.”

The pace of growth in detached sales has closely matched new listings this year. However, inventory levels continue to remain at 3,280 and months of supply pushed up to 3.32. Recent gains in months-of-supply prevented further gains in prices this month. Detached prices totaled $510,900 in August. This is slightly lower than last year, but 1.5 per cent above last year’s levels.

With over seven months-of-supply, the excess supply continues to weigh heavily on the apartment condominium sector. As of August, the benchmark price totaled $263,300. This is one per cent below last month and three per cent below last year’s levels. Downward price pressure in this sector is expected as supply levels remain elevated in the new, resale and rental market.

“Economic challenges continue to exist, as high unemployment rates, weak migration levels and more stringent lending conditions are weighing on the housing market,” said CREB^® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“This will continue to cause some adjustments in the housing market for the remainder of this year. However, this is not expected to offset earlier gains supporting general stability in 2017.”

Resale sales activity is expected to total 18,401 units in 2017, a 3.3 per cent improvement over last year. The pace of growth is slightly faster than originally anticipated, due to the stronger growth that occurred in the first half of the year.

“We saw many of those consumers who delayed any purchasing decisions willing to re-enter the market as concerns regarding the economy eased,” said CREB^® president David P. Brown.

“More potential buyers on the market helped move some of the product in inventory and started to create some price stability.”

Improvements in the supply demand balance, primarily in the detached and attached sector, caused prices to start to trend up. Demand growth through the remainder of the year is expected to ease relative to inventory levels. This should prevent further substantial shifts in pricing. Overall, annual city wide prices are expected to remain at levels comparable to last year.

Despite generally improving trends, difficulties continue to exist in the condo-apartment ownership market. Rising sales cannot keep pace with the growth in new listings, keeping supply levels high and placing continued downward pressure on prices. This area of the housing market will likely continue to face challenges well into next year, as it will take time to absorb additional inventory in the resale, new and rental markets.

“Improvements in the labour market are supporting the shift in the housing market this year. However, activity over the past two years was amongst the weakest we have seen since the financial crisis,” said Lurie.

“While the shift is welcome news for many, we continue to expect that process of recovery will be slow and dependent on the property type and location within the market.”

Declines in residential housing sales activity eased in July, creating, when combined with stable inventory levels, no change to the month-over-month price.

Year-over-year sales fell by 14 per cent to 1,995 units in July, compared to a 17.8 per cent decrease the previous month. Despite the decline, sales activity during the month was consistent with the 10-year average.

While sales decline eased, so too did the decline in new listings, causing the unadjusted sales-to-new listings ratio to edge down to 67 per cent in July and months of supply to increase to 2.53 months.

“As weakness in the energy sector continues, this is trickling into several other aspects of our local economy, including our housing market,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

Despite weaker absorption rates, market conditions remained relatively balanced and helped maintain month-over-month stability in benchmark prices, which remained unchanged from the previous month at $455,400.

“Often, the focus is on home prices. In fact, Calgary has recorded significant gains in home prices over the past several years,” said Lurie. “And despite the recent retraction, we have not seen all those previous gains eroded.”

While benchmark prices exhibited some month-over-month resilience, they still declined by 0.15 per cent annually and one per cent lower than levels recorded in January. It represents the first time since 2011 that benchmark prices have posted a year-over-year decline.

Lurie attributes most of the year-over-year decline to the apartment sector, where prices fell by 1.61 per cent to $293,300 – nearly two per cent lower than the price at the beginning of the year – due to weak demand and growing supply.

Year-to-date new listings in the apartment sector declined by 4.6 per, while sales declined by 29 per cent over the same period, resulting in inventory gains. By July, the months of supply pushed up to 3.77 months compared to three months in June.

“The relatively weak demand for apartment product, combined with rising supply, continued to place downward pressure on prices for the second month in a row,” said Lurie.

CREB® president Corinne Lyall noted Calgary’s housing market is continuing to see some nuances in supply between the different segments of the market.

“These differences are really important to understand as it relates to consumer expectations,” she said. “Some buyers expect they will get major price reductions in this market, but that’s not always the case. In some areas, supply levels are more balanced with demand and that creates price stability.”

Meanwhile, detached home prices remained steady month-over-month at $515,300. While absorption rates eased in the sector, conditions remained relatively balanced.

“Many clients are optimistic about the long-term outlook and are less concerned about short-term fluctuations in the housing market,” said Lyall.

“They’re focused on taking the time they need to make the right choices for their lifestyle. Saying that, it’s important to stay current and become educated with the market dynamics in the communities where they may be making real estate decisions.”

“While employment and migration are expected to support housing demand, estimates could change depending on the extent and duration of oil price declines,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB®’s chief economist. “However, concerns over the potential impact will influence consumer confidence. This is expected to cause supply and demand to ease in 2015, maintaining resale market balance and keeping prices relatively stable.”

According to Lurie, the risk lies with the potential severity and duration of the pullback in the energy industry, which would have a lagging effect on the housing sector. While the current situation has some comparing today’s market to 2009, there are some differences.

“Following the financial crisis, many countries including the United States were struggling. In Calgary, new home starts outpaced household formations, contributing to an oversupplied market,” said Lurie.

While CREB® has not yet completed its forecast for 2015, based on the current range of economic expectations, Calgary’s housing market is not expected to see the same level of pullback recorded from 2008 to 2010.

It is important to note there can be significant differences between segments of the Calgary market. Bill Kirk, president of CREB®, clarifies that there are many factors to consider when buying or selling a home, outside of market conditions.

“Market influencers are wide-ranging and may include anything from price range to the type of home and availability in a particular market segment,” said Kirk. “A REALTOR® can help determine how these factors will impact a given property in a given area, allowing consumers to make an informed decision.”

CREB®’s 2015 forecast report will be available January 14, 2015.

“Sales growth continues at the double digit pace seen over the later portion of 2013, mostly due to the gains in the condominium sector,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “While these are the highest January sales levels since 2008, total sales transactions are in line with long-term trends.” Condominium apartment and townhouse sales totaled 466 units in January, a 33 per cent increase over the same period in 2013. This is relative to the 974 sales in the single family sector, only a 11 per cent increase over the previous year.

Condominium apartment and townhouse sales totaled 466 units in January, a 33 per cent increase over the same period in 2013. This is relative to the 974 sales in the single family sector, only a 11 per cent increase over the previous year.

“Consumers looking for more affordable product turned to Calgary’s condominium market, which was the only sector to record growth in new listings, compared to January 2013,” explained CREB® president Bill Kirk. “The improvement in listings helped ease some of the tightness in the condominium market, however overall conditions continue to favour the seller.”

New listings in the condominium apartment and townhouse market totaled 809 units, a combined increase of six per cent. Meanwhile, the single family sector lost momentum with new listings recording an eight per cent year-over-year decline. Overall market conditions continue to remain tight with months of supply remaining below two months.

“Two consecutive years of strong migration levels are expected to support improving housing demand this year, but at a slower pace,” said Lurie. “However, with no significant change in the supply situation this month, prices continue to rise at higher than expected levels.”

The unadjusted single family benchmark price was $476,700 in January, a 0.95 per cent increase over the previous month and a 9.1 per cent increase over the previous year.

The availability of lower price single-family product continues to decline, resulting in a shift in sales distribution. In January, 29 per cent of the single family sales activity occurred in the $400,000 – $499,999 price range, making it the category with the highest share of sales. In previous years, the majority of the single family transactions occurred in the $300,000 – $399,000 range.

Condominium apartment and townhouse prices totaled $280,600 and $308,100 respectively in January. On average, year-over-year price growth in the townhouse market totaled just more than 8 per cent, compared to the apartment sector increase of nearly 12 per cent.

While year-over-year condominium apartment price gains have pushed into double digit growth territory, the unadjusted benchmark price remains 5.5 per cent lower than levels recorded during the high.

Kirk noted that “While supply pressures have not yet eased in the market, it is important to note that we are in one of the traditionally slower months of activity in our housing sector as many consumers are waiting for the more robust spring market.”

 one year on labour and materials,
 two years on delivery and distribution systems,
 five years on building envelope, and
 10 years on major structural components.

Warranty providers must also offer an optional two years of additional building envelope coverage.
New home warranties cover repairs and replacements relating to defects in the construction of a home.

This is different from a homeowner’s insurance policy, which addresses damage to a home due to fire and severe storms and could also include damage to other structures (e.g. storage sheds), property damage or theft, and personal liability in the event of an accident on the property. The builder is responsible for ensuring that warranty coverage is in place. Work completed by the builder’s sub-trades is included in the coverage (except for work done on excluded items, as defined in the legislation).

New home warranty coverage currently offered in Alberta does not meet the minimum coverage requirements under the new legislation. As a result, the cost of warranty for the average house will likely increase, once the Act comes into force. In January 2012, the average price of a home in Alberta was $342,000. Based on that average, warranty coverage is expected to cost less than one per cent of the price of the home. The exact cost of the warranty coverage will vary, depending on the warranty provider, the builder, and the home.

To Whom Does It Apply?

The new legislation applies to all new residential construction built under a permit applied for after the in-force date of the Act. This includes houses, condominiums, recreational properties (cottages and cabins), and modular and manufactured homes. Dorms, work camps, hotels, and rental apartments will be exempt, as they follow a different ownership model.

Warranty requirements for reconstruction and renovation will be defined in regulation and will be based on the amount of new square footage. Requirements for buildings being converted into condos will be based on the age of the original building. For buildings more than 10 years old, warranty would not be required unless the conversion met the reconstruction threshold. At the time of this writing, Alberta Municipal Affairs is working with industry to develop requirements for buildings less than 10 years old. These requirements will be defined in regulation.

When warranty coverage is in place on a home, coverage transfers to the subsequent owner(s) upon resale. Warranty requirements for resale homes depend on a number of factors. If the residence was built under a permit applied for prior to the in-force date of the Act, warranty coverage is not required. If the residence was built under a permit applied for after the in-force date of the Act, warranty coverage will be required. Options for residences that were owner-built (i.e., with an owner builder authorization) will be defined in regulation.

Alberta Municipal Affairs has been working with warranty providers and permit issuers to develop a new home registry system, including a publicly-accessible online search tool. Users will be able to quickly and easily look up a specific property and learn the status of its warranty coverage, who is providing the coverage, and whether the home was professionally or owner-built. The information visible in the public search will be monitored by New Home Buyer Protection Program staff and updated daily to help home buyers, municipalities, REALTORS®, and lending institutions make informed decisions.

For More Information
For more information on the New Home Buyer Protection Act, visit www.municipalaffairs.alberta.ca/NHBP or Alberta Municipal Affairs at 1-866-421-6929.
Ivan Moore is the Assistant Deputy Minister of the Public Safety Division of Municipal Affairs, Government of Alberta.

City of Calgary monthly residential sales totaled 2,317, a six per cent increase over June 2012 figures, and nearly five per cent higher than levels recorded in the first half of 2012. However, the impact of recent flooding is expected to trickle into the housing statistics over coming months.

“While sales and prices continue to show improvement, the city and residents of communities impacted by the recent flooding will face significant remediation challenges over the coming months,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB® chief economist. “Until the extent of the damage is known, it is difficult to accurately assess the full impact this will have on the city’s housing market.”

The level of new listings totaled 3,003 units in the city, a nine per cent drop over the previous year. The rise in sales, combined with the drop in listings, is keeping overall market balance in favour of the seller.

Active listings totalled 4,584 units in June, of which more than 660 units are listed in flood-affected areas. Active listings are nearly 20 per cent less than last year.

“In the coming months, flood victims, particularly those who were planning on selling their homes, will have some big decisions to make,” said Becky Walters, CREB® President. “Will they take a discounted price? Or will they stay and fully remediate the property? Either way, in the short term, housing supply will likely be relatively tight.”

Condominium sales growth outpaced gains in the single family sector, as less availability of single-family homes priced at less than $500,000 have improved the demand for the relatively affordable condominium market.

After the first six months of the year, condominium apartment sales totalled 2,034 units a 9.5 per cent increase over 2012. Meanwhile, year-to-date condominium townhouse sales amounted to 1,672 units, up from 1,374 sales recorded in the first half of 2012.

“The tighter market conditions are placing upward pressure on pricing in all city sectors,” said Lurie. “While the areas affected by the flood may face some short-term impacts on pricing, any adjustments occurring are unlikely to outweigh the impacts on the overall city wide price growth.”

The benchmark price for condominium apartments and townhouses were a respective $264,000 and $295,000 for the month of June 2013. Condominium prices have increased by more than six per cent on a year-over-year basis, but remain below unadjusted peak levels.

Single-family sales activity totaled 1,638 units in June, a two per cent increase over 2012. However, after the first two quarters, single-family sales totaled 8,573 units, a one per cent increase over last year.

The single-family market moved into seller’s territory ahead of the condominium market, supporting stronger price growth. As of June the single-family benchmark price reached $459,700, a 6.7 per cent increase over the previous year.

“Prior to the events of the flood, our market was demonstrating tight supply levels, particularly for lower price product,” said Lurie.

Meanwhile economic indicators supported the growing demand in the city. Both the economic fallout and housing impact are yet to be seen. However, long-term economic prospects remain favourable for Calgary.

New listings in March are five per cent lower than levels recorded in 2012, and five per cent lower after the first quarter. The overall active listings stand at just 4,006 units, up from February’s levels but well below the number available one year ago.

“Less resale product available to consumers is ultimately limiting sales growth,” said CREB® President Becky Walters. “In addition, resale homes are selling in less time and with continued upward pressure on prices.”

Walters said buyers have grown accustomed to a market when they have more time to make decisions because there was ample supply. But, as market conditions have tightened, if they are serious about purchasing a resale home, they can no longer significantly delay that decision, she said.
“While market conditions are a far cry from activity witnessed throughout the frenzy in 2006 and 2007, there has been a noticeable change over what became the norm over the past few years.” Walters said.

Single-family, year-over-year sales growth declined by six per cent in March, a reflection of declining supply. Active inventory totaled 2,713 units, 22 per cent lower than levels recorded in 2012, and the lowest March inventory level recorded since 2007. The market balance continues to trend into seller’s territory in this segment causing a year-over-year price increase of nearly nine per cent, for a total of $446,500 in March 2013.

“Tighter rental conditions and continued employment growth has supported housing demand growth,” said Ann-Marie Laurie, CREB®’s chief economist. “However, for those looking for more affordable single family home products, their choices continue to narrow.”

She said new single-family listings under $500,000 are declining at double-digit rates, driving consumers at that price point to either surrounding towns, condominiums or the new home market.

The condominium townhouse market is the only category to record a year-over-year rise in sales activity for the month. This is in part because the level of new listings improved in March 2013 relative to March 2012. Condominium year-over-year apartment sales declined by nearly three per cent in March.

However, after the first quarter, sales activity totaled 830 units a 6 per cent increase over the previous year. Condominium townhouse sales totaled 652 units at the end of the first quarter, a 15 per cent increase over the previous year.

“The condominium apartment market remains in balance,” said Lurie. “While it has moved to the lower end of the spectrum, it remains better supplied then the single family market and the majority of product available is in an affordable price range.”

The benchmark apartment price totaled $257,700 in March, a six per cent increase over the previous year. Meanwhile, the condominium townhouse benchmark price experienced a year-over-year increase of 4 per cent, to $286,800.

“Despite tighter market conditions, it is unlikely that we will have another significant run-up in prices,” said Lurie. “Outside of easing economic factors expected this year, consumers have options in the total housing market.”

“Calgary’s housing market has finally started to recover,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB®’s chief economist. “While prices remain shy of the highs recorded in 2007, this is a move in the right direction.”

Much of the sustainable recovery is fuelled from the growth in the energy sector, spilling over into all aspects of our economy, including housing, Lurie said. “There is no question employment and migration growth has supported housing demand, a trend that is expected to continue this year, albeit at a slower pace.”

The single-family market sales growth outpaced increases in the total condominium market within city limits. Single-family sales rose by 15 per cent in 2012 compared to 2011. New listings did not keep pace, declining by seven per cent over the same period. This has significantly reduced the inventory of single-family homes in the market, pushing prices up.

“Consumers in the market were looking for value, and, if a home was priced right based on a longer term view of their housing needs, they were buying,” said 2012 CREB® President Bob Jablonski.|

The price spread is expected to narrow as balanced market conditions support further price growth, he said. But in most communities, prices remain lower than 2007 levels.

The unadjusted single-family benchmark price was $434,800 for the month of December, 8.7-per-cent higher than 2011. On average, single-family prices are up by seven per cent for the year, and remain two per cent below peak pricing in 2007.

Condominium sales are improving, as lower supply levels and rising prices in the single-family market drove consumers to explore alternatives. Sales in the apartment and townhouse sector recorded annual increases of 12 and 16 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, listings are declining in both sectors, keeping both markets in balanced conditions. Price growth has not been at the same pace as what was recorded in the single-family sector.

Condominium apartment benchmark prices totalled 248,700 in December, a 5.4 per cent increase over 2011. Annual average benchmark increases were two per cent, significantly lower than the five per cent increase in the annual average price.

The average price increase is misleading, as there were several multimillion-dollar condominium sales in 2012 that skewed figures up. With more sales occurring at the higher end of the spectrum, average and median prices are trending higher than the benchmark, which represents price growth for the same type of property.

“Calgary’s 2013 housing sector growth will ease both in terms of sales and price growth, differing from the declines expected on a national level,” Lurie said.

Calgary’s housing market did not recover at the same pace as other Canadian centres, and 2012 was the first time resale sales returned to more normal levels of activity, she said.

“It is expected that continued weakness in the natural gas sector, combined with the more cautious expansion approach in the oil sector, will persist this year. While economic activity will be strong enough to support moderate housing growth, the notion of an overheated housing market in 2013 is unlikely, given the economic backdrop.”