Cambridge Pugwash

Nuclear Proliferation

2007-03-12T13:32:00.000+00:00

Ahead of this week's Parliamentary debate on Trident (mentioned in a previous post), the deputy leader of the House of Commons, Nigel Griffiths, has resigned, saying "I'm resigning with a heavy heart but a clear conscience". Comment and analysis on the story can be found on the Guardian & Times websites.

Following the resignation on Saturday of Jim Devine over the reknewal of Trident, Mr Griffith's resignation is the second by a Labour MP on the government payroll and illustrates the divisions within the party over the question of Britain's nuclear capabilities.

Nuclear Proliferation

2007-03-09T18:56:00.000+00:00

In a letter published in yesterday's Times, Mikhail Gorbachev attacks Labour's "rush to deploy nuclear missiles" until 2050. Writing in his role as the chairman of Green Cross International, he goes on to say that the most responsible course of action would be to postpone the decision on the future of the UK's nuclear arsenal until at least after the next review of the Nonproliferation Treaty in 2010.

There will be a debate on the Trident system in the House of Commons on the 14th March. The British American Security Information Council has information on the debate, as well as details of the Defence Committee justification for procuring a replacement for Trident, all contained in their latest update.

In addition, the British American Security Information Council has a report by Dr Steven Schofield. This report puts the case for diverting resources away from nuclear submarine manufacture to a 'national needs' programme of civil R&D and manufacture.

Finally, there are a few interesting articles on the website of the Union of Concerned Scientists, looking at nuclear weapons and the weaponisation of space.

Selected Science Stories

2007-02-24T15:21:00.000+00:00

Here are a few science articles which may be of interest from the past week:

Science funding in the US has received a boost: Science.com reports on the granting by the U.S. Congress of a $334 million increase in the National Science Foundation's $4.4 billion research budget. In addition, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Department of Energy's science programs were also increased, up $620 million and $200 million respectively, but NASA's budget was decreased.
Also in the US, despite a tentatively ruling last year from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration that milk and meat from some cloned animals are safe to eat, the largest U.S. dairy processor and distributor, Dean Foods Co, said even if food products from cloned animals become a reality, it will not sell milk from animals that have been cloned because of ongoing consumer concerns.
The over-all outlook for US science is may be good or it may be bad... Jon D. Miller, a Michigan State University professor has published a study which finds that over the past 20 years, the number of Americans who knew enough about science to understand reports in major newspapers has grown from 10% to 28% (whilst low, this figure apparently is better than those for Japan or Europe). Scientific American gives the gloomy prognosis resulting from this, including the end of civilisation!
Science reports on the case of Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) biologist, James Sherley, who went on hunger strike for 11 days to protest what he claims was a racist decision by MIT to deny him tenure. Under a settlement reached between the two sides on Friday, MIT seems to be willing to reopen the case.
Away from the US, Nature reports on the case of Japan's most popular science TV show which has admitted faking results, overdubing interviews with researchers and misleading viewers.
Nature also carries a report on a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine this week, which finds that drugs that fight genital herpes also significantly reduce levels of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in patients infected with both viruses.
Intellectual honesty in science comes under the spot light on ScienceBlogs, where the case of Marcus Ross is discussed. Ross was recently granted a Ph.D. earned through a dissertation on mosasaurs, marine reptiles which became extinct 65 million years ago, despite Dr. Ross now being open about his view that the Earth under 10,000 years old.

Event Announcement: Speaker Meeting

2007-02-09T19:28:00.000+00:00

Speaker: Dr Aubrey be Grey.

Title: "Life extension: scientists' duty to discuss timescales and consequences".

Location: The Lounge, Gradute Union, Mill Lane, Monday 12th of February, 7:30 pm.

Information: Aubrey de Grey's work involves an eventual goal of a cure for human aging. He will speak about the ethics involved in extending human lifespans.

Additional information on forthcoming events organised by the Cambridge Pugwash society can be found on their website.

Climate Change Articles

2007-02-05T18:04:00.000+00:00

Here are a few climate change articles from the past week.

The Independent carries a Q & A session with Sir David King, the government's chief scientific advisor, much of it focusing on climate change.

The fourth IPCC report on global warming has been released. "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal," its report stated, adding that most of the warming is "very likely" due to human activity. If people keep spewing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, they will "very likely" change climate in this century much more than they did in the 20th century, the report concludes. You can download the report and read a brief discussion article on the Science website. A more detailed discussion is given on the Nature site.

An article by Sir David King, commenting on the IPCC report and calling for international action on climate change, is available on the Guardian website.

Scientific American also has a slightly more in-depth article examining the progress in climate change science over the past decade and the impact this has had on IPCC reports.

Scientific American then discusses a report from the European Commission which proposes forcing oil companies to cut greenhouse gas emissions from drilling, refining, transporting and burning fuel in new rules aimed at fighting global warming.

In the UK, The Independent reported on the 2nd February, that for the first time, the science of global warming and sustainable development is to make its way on to the national curriculum in secondary schools. The Qualifications and Curriculum Authority, which advises the Government on what should be on the curriculum, proposes that climate change should be taught as part of geography lessons, which are compulsory up to age 14. And the Education Secretary, Alan Johnson, today throws his weight behind the idea, ensuring that it will actually happen.

Selected Science Stories

2007-01-31T19:45:00.000+00:00

You may be interested to read the latest reports from the British American Security Information Council. This includes reports on:
Whether the current Labour Government should commit its successors to the indefinite retention of nuclear weapons?
The Proliferation Security Initiative: Targeting Iran and North Korea?
Biological Weapons

New York Times article regarding the Long Bets website and the prediction posted by the president of the Royal Society, Martin Rees, of a bioterror/bioerror attack killing a million people by the year 2020.

Science magazine article concerning the decline in the number of chimpanzees available for biomedical research in the U.S. which has sparked a growing debate on the opportunities and costs of studies with our closest relatives. The U.S. has more than 1000 chimpanzees set aside for biomedical research, but now stands alone as the only country that has captive chimpanzees available to biomedical researchers.

Concerned about academic freedom, the University of California (UC) has delayed voting on a plan to impose a blanket ban on research funding from tobacco companies. If approved, the ban would make UC the only U.S. university to forbid tobacco dollars campus-wide. Article here.

The U.S. House of Representatives is expected to pass a belated 2007 spending bill that treats research much more favorably than science advocates had dared hoped--and avoids budget cuts that many had feared. Article here..

In the recent State of the Union address , President Bush indicated that the US was too dependent on fossil fuels and asked Congress to work to reduce gasoline usage in the U.S. by 20 percent over the next ten years, and recommended research into alternative fuels. Yesterday though, Representative Henry Waxman (D-CA) charged the White House with "an orchestrated effort to mislead the public." with regards to federal global warming research. Waxman, who this month became chair of the House Oversight and Government Reform committee, says his staff has found evidence that scientific reports were manipulated for political ends despite efforts by the Administration to block recent requests for information. Comment and links to the congressional hearing are available on the RealClimate site.

In the Jan 18th edition of Nature, they ran an article on scientific fraud, following up recent stories of scientific fraud investigations. Janet Stemwedel on the Ethics and Science blog notes that the Nature article doesn't necessarily package their story fairly, and gives a brief repackaging to the story to make it somewhat more obvious that a number of the scientists were subsequently completely cleared of all allegations.

In a couple of articles on the same site , Janet Stemwedel discusses in some detail the advisability of putting ethical discussions into science classes.

2007-01-19T18:26:00.000+00:00

Speaker: Lord Martin Rees.

Title: "The role of scientists in a dangerous world".

Location: Monday 22th of January, 8:00 pm. Winstanley Lecture Theatre, Trinity College

Information: Lord Rees of Ludlow is President of the Royal Society, Master of Trinity College, Astronomer Royal, and a member of the British Pugwash Group Executive Committee.

He will speak about Joseph Rotblat and the other pioneers of the Pugwash movement to study the intersection between science and world affairs. He will also discuss the continued relevance and importance of their example in the 21st century, when science offers immense opportunities but raises new threats and ethical dilemmas.

Free to the public.

To reach the Winstanley Lecture Theatre, turn from Trinity Street into Whewell's Court, opposite the Great Gate. Turn right immediately after the first arch and climb the stone stairs. At the top of the stairs, follow the path round the ziggurat-like Wolfson building, leaving it to your left. Then turn right into Blue Boar Court. The Winstanley Lecture Theatre is on the east side of the Court.

This event is co-sponsored by Trinity College Science Society, who will be providing some drinks and snacks.

Additional information on forthcoming events organised by the Cambridge Pugwash society can be found on their website.

Selected Science Stories

2006-11-25T18:28:00.000+00:00

Today's Guardian carries an article on Chencellor Gorden Brown's warning against unilateral disarmament. He also promises that there will be a full debate on Trident over the next few months, presumably following the likely publication in December of a White Paper on the Government's preferred option.

Scientific American reports on the mysterious stabilisation of atmospheric methane levels. Whilst levels are not reducing, the unexplained leveling-off may give the world community slightly more time to address CO2 levels.

Science carries a worrying article covering the latest UN report on levels of HIV/AIDS. HIV now infects 40million people worldwide, an increase of 2.3million in 2 years.

The Nuffield Council on Bioethics recently published a detailed report concerning critical care decisions in fetal and neonatal medicine. This effectively lays down rules/guidelines for the treatment of extremely premature babies (22-25 weeks). The Scientist has an executive summary.

Event Announcement: Public Discussion Meeting

2006-11-24T09:55:00.000+00:00

Event: British Pugwash Group Public Discussion Meeting

Topic: Climate breakdown: Can it be controlled? Can we prevent it?

Objective of the Meeting:

The self-regulatory mechanisms of our planetary environment are under stress from human activity, possibly to the point of catastrophic breakdown.

The purpose of this meeting will be to rehearse the evidence for such a threat, to look at the action that needs to be taken to avert it, and to consider what role the scientific community (including groups such as Pugwash) can play in developing a robust, global prevention strategy. Our speakers will address three of the major strands in this issue.

Speakers:

Dr James Lovelock, CH, FRS
Global heating: a hazard comparable to, or greater than, nuclear warfare

Professor Peter Cox
Climate change science: knowns and unknowns

Sir Crispin Tickell, GCMG, KCVO
The political and diplomatic hazards

Chair: Professor Kit Hill

Date: Tuesday 5th December 2006 at 2.15pm
Location: School of Oriental and African Studies, Brunei Gallery, 10 Thornhaugh Street, Russell Square

More information on this event can be found on the Pugwash website.

Event Announcement: Public Speaker Meeting

2006-11-24T09:52:00.000+00:00

Speaker: Dr William Connolley.

Title: "Climate Change and Global Warming".

Location: Graduate Union Lounge, Mill Lane, 28th of November, 7:30 pm.

Information: Dr William Connolley works as a Climate Modeller for the British Antarctic Survey, his research interests include: Sea ice, especially as implemented in the UKMO Hadley Centre climate model, all aspects of (Antarctic) climate variability and attempting to understand the warming seen around the Antarctic Peninsula.

Additional information on forthcoming events organised by the Cambridge Pugwash society can be found on their website.

2006-11-19T17:19:00.000+00:00

Quite the American theme to the selection of stories this week:

Following the US midterm elections and the Democratic sweep of Congress, Science has a few articles considering the implications for research funding and direction, in particular on stem cell research;
Additionally, Science also reports that the U.S. Congress has passed a measure that is expected to make it much easier to prosecute animal-rights activists who target enterprises that deal with animals. Research groups immediately hailed the measure, called the Animal Enterprise Terrorism Act, as a milestone in protecting science, while animal activists warned that it labels peaceful demonstrators as terrorists.
Getting buy-in from the US will be vital for any attempts to tackle climate change. Scientific American reports a speculative talk on the possibility of the US setting up a carbon-emission trading scheme;
UK governmental targets on climate change seem to be taking shape, as reported in this Nature article on the opening of Parliament, although the actual methods of reduction remain sketchy;
The NY-Times has an interesting article by Barun Mitra, director of Liberty Institute, a research organization that promotes free-market economics. He discusses Chinese plans to farm tigers in an attempt to cut down on poaching of wild tigers;
Over on the Women's Bioethics Blog, there is an article on the lifting of the Food and Drug Associaton's ban on the cosmetic use of silicone breast implants yesterday, despite evidence from various health professionals on therisks associated with silicone breast implants.

2006-11-10T10:01:00.000+00:00

Speaker: Professor Ross Anderson.

Title: "Security Economics".

Location: Boys Smith Room, Fisher Building, St John's, 14th of November, 5:30 pm.

Information: Until 1945, both academics and politicians were keenly aware of the interaction between economics and security; wealthy nations could afford large armies and navies, enabling them to expand territory or at the very least protect trade. But nowadays a web search on `economics’ and `security’ turns up relatively few articles. The main reason is that after 1945 both academics and officials working on economics drafted apart from those working on national security; nuclear weapons were thought to decouple national survival from economic power, and while the USA confronted the USSR over security, it fought with Japan and the EU over trade.

Over the last half-dozen years, interest in security economics has revived, driven by information security problems. From bank card fraud through spam and phishing to digital rights management, many of the thorny problems of the information age resist purely technical solutions. Incentives matter, and very often things fail because the people defending a system are not the people who suffer the costs of failure. Internet insecurity has been likened to environmental pollution: someone connecting an insecure PC to the Internet does not face all the costs of their action, any more than someone heating their house with a coal fire.

Prof. Anderson will discuss recent research in security economics, which is starting to spill over from pure information security issues to neighbouring problems from system dependability to the economics of crime and conflict.

Prof. Ross Anderson is the head of the computer security group at Cambridge university. He founded the Foundation for Information Policy Research in 1998, a leading think tank and lobbying group on internet governance and business issues and is an outspoken critic of trusted computing.

Additional information on forthcoming events organised by the Cambridge Pugwash society can be found on their website.

2006-11-05T22:51:00.000+00:00

Some interesting articles from the past week:

Missouri: A ballot proposal promoting embryonic stem cell research is turning conservatives against one another and threatening to tear apart the state Republican Party. The measure — sponsored by a coalition of medical groups, researchers, businesses and advocates for patients — would make Missouri the only state besides California to include the right to stem cell research in its state constitution: NY Times.
Other Stem Cell news: Korean researcher Woo Suk Hwang admitted in criminal court last week that he forged data to make his work on human stem cells look more credible: Science.
Scientists with Iranian passports may be barred from working or studying abroad as part of proposed United Nations sanctions: Science.
Nearly 40 percent of the scientists conducting hands-on research at the US National Institutes of Health say they are considering looking for other work in order to escape new ethics rules that have curtailed their opportunity to earn outside income through consultancy positions.: Washington Post.
UK Couples are to be offered free fertility treatment in return for donating sperm: Bioethics Blog.
In the Sunday Times, the foreign secretary, Margaret Beckett, has called for a public debate on whether the country still needs Trident missiles.
A number of other issues surrounding the potential renewal of the Trident missile system, are discussed on the British American Security Information Council website.

2006-10-30T20:40:00.000+00:00

Today sees the publishing of the vitally important Stern Review. The review investigates the economics of climate change, to understand more comprehensively the nature of the economic challenges and how they can be met, in the UK and globally.

In the report summary, Stern states that "Climate change is the greatest market failure the world has ever seen" and that "our actions over the coming few decades could create risks of major disruption to economic and social activity, later in this century and in the next, on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th century. And it will be difficult or impossible to reverse those changes."

Here is a brief summary of some of the major findings:

Basics of the Stern Report: Costs

Stern has undertaken a large scale cost-benefit analysis of investing (or not investing) in measures to reduce climate-change. This involves modelling the impact of:

Climate change on human life and the environment, as well as examining the costs of different technologies and strategies to reduce emissions.
The costs to the economy as a whole of transferring to a low-carbon economy.
Comparing different strategies to understand the potential costs of (in)action.

On a human level, the impact be catastrophic: if left un-checked, climate change could create 200 Million refugees by 2050, through flood, famine and drought.
Economically, the Review takes as an input the temperature rises predicted by the accepted climate models, and then calculates the effect on global GDP of such a temperature increase, and finds:

The "do-nothing" option (continuing on as we are, with current patterns of growth and consumption) will lead to a basic reduction in GDP of ~5%;
If we then allow for costs to human health and the environment, the cost rises to ~10%;
Allowing for updated climatic modelling, suggesting greater temperature rises, and potential non-linear climate change effects, the impact could be a colossal 20%;
If we act swiftly to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions, the spend required would amount to a reduction in GDP of only 1%.

The economic case is clear: The cost of acting now would be around £200 Billion; The cost of not acting could be up to £3 Trillion. Immediate action is required.

Basics of the Stern Report: Actions

Greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere should be stabilised at 500-550 ppm (compared to today's level of 430, and to 280 in pre-industrial times).
Collective Action will be required: The UK accounts for 2% of world CO2 emissions - if we were to instantly make all UK power stations pollution-free tomorrow, China alone is building so many coal-fired power stations that global-emissions would be back to the same level in one year.
We need a speedier negotiation of a successor to the Kyoto protocol, i.e. before 2008, not 2012.
Action to reduce deforestation would be comparatively cheap (£5B), yet effective (18% emissions reduction).
We need to vastly increase spending on research into clean energy sources.
We need to create a formal world market to price carbon emissions. This would need to cover all forms of business and transport, unlike the current EU ETS.li>
Individuals and businesses alike will have to taxed to bring home the true social and environmental costs of pollution.
In particular, world energy generation needs to be massively de-carbonised. As it is likely that fossil fuels could still be powering 50% of global power stations in 2050, it is essential that carbon capture & storage mechanisms are developed & implemented.
The huge cost of investment will need to be primarily born by the developed world if Africa and developing nations are to have any chance to protect themselves - the %GDP cost for developing nations will be much higher, and Developed nations have a moral responsibility to help, given that they have created much of the emissions during their own growth over the past 150 years.

Stern then emphasises in his summary that the Review can be seen as being essentially optimistic:
"There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, if we act now and act internationally. Governments, businesses and individuals all need to work together to respond to the challenge. Strong, deliberate policy choices by governments are essential to motivate change. But the task is urgent. Delaying action, even by a decade or two, will take us into dangerous territory. We must not let this window of opportunity close".

Gordon Brown (who commissioned the review) released a statement commending the report and announcing a number of measures & planned items of legislation to begin to address the urgent call for action.

I will come back to this topic in a few days time once the international responses start to come in & when we have more detail on the UK Government's policy intentions: the international policy effort will be vitally important in the long term, if there is to be any meaningful action.

Selected Science Stories

2006-10-28T17:03:00.000+01:00

As this is the first of these alliteratively titled "Selected Science Stories" entries, I should briefly describe now I intend them to work. As the name might suggest, they will contain links to a variety of scienced-based articles published over the previous week which I think would be of interest to Pugwash members. The content and focus of the posts can of course be varied in future according to demand.

Listed below are a few pertinent articles from the past week:

"The South African government yesterday announced; a dramatic reversal of its approach to the country's Aids crisis, promising increased availability of drugs and endorsing the efforts of civic groups battling the disease" - The Guardian;
The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change will be published on Monday 30th October, the result of 15 months investigation into the potential economic impacts of climate change, associated with both mitigation and adaptation. The BBC anticipates the results;
The US nuclear-weapons complex is too large and is likely to remain so, given its plan to build a new facility capable of producing 125 plutonium "pits" per year - Brief review article in Nature;
"The theory of evolution is a lie," Mirosaw Orzechowski, Poland's deputy education minister, told the newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza on 14 October. "It is an error we have legalized as a common truth." - Fifty leading scientists in Poland have signed an open letter in protest against an aggressive anti-evolution campaign launched by the League of Polish Families (LPR), the ultra-right-wing coalition partner in the conservative Polish government. - Nature.

Event Announcement: Speaker Meeting

2006-10-28T15:52:00.000+01:00

Speaker: Sir John Sulston (Nobel Laureate).

Title: "Genetics and Society: the equitable application of our growing genetic knowledge".

Location: Dirac Room, Fisher Building, St John's, 2nd of November, 7:30 pm.

Information: Sir John Sulston has worked on sequencing both the human and C.elegans genome (for which he received a Nobel Prize). He is a leading campaigner against the patenting of human genetic information.

Additional information on forthcoming events organised by the Cambridge Pugwash society can be found on their website.