———————————————————————————————

“First, some assumptions (they may be a bit messy, but I think the point still stands):

(1) The AL East each year has a 95 win team, a 92 win team, an 87 win team, a 76 win team, and a 70 win team. That’s an average of 84 wins for the division, which is where it’s been (on average) for the last few seasons.

(2) The rest of the AL plays like a 79-80 win team, so that the average AL is at about 81 wins. You’d expect an AL East team to then beat another AL team about 53% of the time. Actual AL East winning percentage against the Central and West the last three years: 53%.

(3) The NL plays like a 73 win team, so that the average AL team beats the average NL team about 55% of the time (which also corresponds pretty well with recent history).

So based on the unbalanced schedule, an AL East team will play each other East team 18 times, the NL 18 times in interleague play, and the rest of the AL 72 times.”

The Good:

* Bergesen pitched, and got three groundouts (no flyouts).

* Jason Berken pitched two quality innings, giving up just one hot and striking out one.

* Mark Hendrickson also had two scoreless, with a a single but two K’s.

* Will Ohman pitched a perfect inning and K’ed two himself. Still sitting on a 0.00 ERA this Spring.

* Kam Mickolio and Matt Albers each pitched scoreless innings to close things out.

* Luke Scott singled and walk, and drove in two. And he played first-base.

The Bad:

* Bergesen didn’t pitch all that well otherwise, giving up two runs on three hits and a walk.

* Felix Pie and Cesar Izturis – batting 1 and 2 – each went 0-3 with a couple strike-outs. We get it – they’re fast – but stop batting them at the top of the line-up, Dave.

* In general, more strike-outs (11) than baserunners (9, 5 hits and 4 walks) from the offense.

O’s get back in the win column with a 3-2 victory, and move to 2-6 for the Spring.

* I thought that maybe there was a third-baseman or shortstop that could be shifted over… nope.

Assuming that Roberts is only out for, say, a month*, the team needs someone to take his spot for around 25 games. For Brian, that’s about 115 plate appearances. His replacement probably wouldn’t be batting lead-off though, so let’s say 100 PA. (Projections using rough approximations of CHONE for offense and Jeff Zimmerman’s UZR projections for defense – with some adjustments.)

* He may be ready for Opening Day. I have no injury expertise, but I’ve heard that back problems can linger. Just picked a nice round number.

The drop-off is relatively steep for even one month, which makes sense since Roberts is around a 3 Wins Above Replacement player (~.5 wins per month), and all of these guys are around replacement level players. Wiggy isn’t projected to be that good overall, since he’ll see time at 1B and DH which carries a stiffer positional adjustment (and, for some reason, his defensive numbers at second-base haven’t been nearly as atrocious as at third).

On the trade front, Tim Deirkes suggested a few lesser names:

Not a lot of good options there. Certainly nothing worth giving up any assets for in a deal, given that the O’s already have Wigginton.

I was thinking that a nice solution might be to actually trade for a decent shortstop, and either play him there with Izzy moving to second (and when Roberts comes back, have him be the team’s utility man) or having the new guy take that role. Then, when Izturis leaves at the end of the season, there would be an option for 2011 at short in-case the team can’t get anyone better*.

* Having another season with guys like Luis Hernandez there is not an option. The free agent pickings look pretty slim though.

Ideally, it would be a young guy who the O’s might be able to rely on going forward. For example; the Nationals’ Ian Desmond. With Christian Guzman making a lot of money at short and the Adam Kennedy in the fold, they could be willing* to deal Desmond (a not top 100 prospect, and rated just a C+ by John Sickles) for some pitching – perhaps a guy like David Hernandez?

* I realize that Desmond is the Nat’s “shortstop of the future”, but David Hernandez could be their “#3 starter of the future” or whatnot. I’m not sure if I’d make that trade if I was them, but who knows?

Desmond is projected to be close to a league average hitter, with CHONE having a .265/.326/.412 line, and a below average fielder at short (though reportedly he has good tools there). He’s not a star, but the O’s system is barren at short at the upper levels. It’s probably not realistic, but it’s the kind of thing I’d be looking into. That, or just sticking with Wiggy/Andino and hoping Roberts ends up being OK (which we’re doing, regardless). Still 4 years and $40 M left on his extension, by the way.

Looking at the splits, I’d say it was largely a change in luck:

Jones struck out less and walked more later in the year, but his batting average on balls in play and HR/FB rate went way down. Given that his career BABIP is a still above average .318 and his career HR/FB% is an around average 11.5%, I’d say that Jones got more lucky early on than he got unlucky later.

Part of the reason behind those numbers might be his batted ball profile:

Instead of hitting line-drives and flyballs, Jones was hitting the ball on the ground quite a lot later in the year. Groundballs go for hits more often than flyballs do, but line-drive rate is the main driver of BABIP so that explains the drop there. With a more normal HR/FB rate and fewer balls going into the air in general, it’s pretty clear why Jones hit 11 home runs in his first 201 plate appearances and only 8 in his remaining 318.

All that doesn’t mean the Jones didn’t change his approach at all though.

He started swinging more, but only at pitches out of the strike-zone. Here are the horizontal and vertical graphs of what he was swinging at, with April-May in blue and thereafter in red:

You can see that Jones was swinging a fair bit more at pitches down in the zone, which would explain the marked increase in groundballs. Pitchers may have been scared off a little by his early season power display, because it sure looks like they were trying to get the ball down against him.

In general though, there was an increase in swing rate at pitches in every direction out of the zone. What’s interesting to me is that I had assumed that such a change came as a result of chasing more breaking balls, but Adam swung at curves and sliders (combined) at about the same rate. He did go after more fastballs and change-ups though, with pitchers throwing the former in the strike-zone a little less and the latter a fair bit more.

Still, Jones did end up walking more and striking out less – perhaps in part because his contact rate went up from about 74% to almost 76% – which is good in isolation. I don’t think it was really the case that Adam went into a “slump” after his hot start – pitchers may have adjusted to him and he needed to adjust back, and there was definitely that big drop-off in fortune. I’d say that his final 2009 numbers – .277/.335/.457 – were pretty close to his true talent last season. Adam’s still young and learning though, so I think he can take a step forward in 2010.

The Good:

* Chad Moeller, looking to beat out a couple other contenders for the back-up catcher job, hit a solo home run and added a single.

* Alfredo Simon pitched two perfect innings, striking out one.

The Bad:

* Tillman wasn’t great, seeming to struggle with his control a little and giving up 2 runs on 4 hits and a walk, while striking out just one in 2.1 IP before reaching his pitch limit for the day.

* Jake Arrieta wasn’t better, giving up 3 runs (1 earned) on 2 hits and a walk, though he did pick up a couple K’s in his inning of work.

* Lefty Alberto Castillo gave up 2 runs (also 1 earned) on 3 hits, no walks, and a strike-out.

* Defensively, Moeller “gave” Carl Crawford a “triple”, allowing him to reach first on catcher’s interference and then third (by way of second) with a poor throw on a stolen base attempt. Good thing he can hit.

* At third-base, Josh Bell made two errors and it sounds like there were a couple of other misplays as well. Bell’s stock is fairly heavily tied to how well he can play third and whether or not he can improve against left-handed pitching. One game, but it’s less than encouraging.

O’s lose 8-3, dropping their record to 1-6. Can’t commit five errors on defense and win all too often. Doesn’t help when you strike out 9 times at the plate, to only one walk.

The Good:

* Matusz gave up two runs in the first, but ended up pitching 2.2 solid innings. Of the 8 outs he got, 6 were on strike-outs. That makes 10 K’s in 4 IP for Matusz this Spring.

* Luke Scott getting some work in at first-base. This should have been a more prominent part of the O’s planning, but better some than none.

* Wieters twice worked himself into good hitter’s counts at 3-1 and 3-0, but flew out both times (deep to the opposite field). Nice to see, but feel free to take a base on balls once in a while. He added a single in his final at bat.

The Bad:

* Garrett Atkins being on the roster (and being paid $4.5 M this year). He didn’t play today, but this is in reference to the above regarding Luke at first.

* Mike Gonzalez had a tough inning, giving up two hits and a walk, but having a runner killed at the plate by Adam Jones(with an assist on the relay by Luke – and a lack of a slide by Brendan Harris).

* Lefty Mike Hinckley wasn’t quite so lucky, as his two hits and a walk resulted in a pair of Twins’ runs.

* The O’s bats; no runs, three hits, and three walks. Given just the 4 K’s, you have to give a little credit to the Twins’ defense (and luck).

With the 5-0 shutout loss, the Orioles drop to 1-5 for the Spring. Only the Nationals at 0-6 have been worse.

——————————————————————————————–

“I was looking at some Pitch/FX data a couple weeks ago and – as will sometimes happen – Tom Glavine popped into my mind. Specifically, the way Glavine was said to have worked the outside corner, getting a called strike and then throwing a pitch a little farther outside, and then another a little farther, and so on. As the announcers would tell it, before long Glavine would be getting strikes called on pitches a foot outside. I asked around and it seemed that no one had looked into this previously (correct me if I’m wrong), and Eric Seidman from Baseball Prospectus was kind enough to help me lay out how to go about things. (I didn’t do exactly what Eric suggested, but I wanted to thank him for the assistance.)”

The Good:

* Guthrie picked up a couple of K’s in the first inning.

* Nick Markakis took Clay Buccholz deep and gone to right. He just turned on an inside fastball and sent it out.

* Will Ohman struck out a pair, and might be strengthening his case for a spot in the pen as a lefty arm.

* 25 year-old infielder Miguel Abreu made a couple of very nice defensive plays at second-base, and picked up a couple of hits at the plate. And stole a base. Nice day, but he’s still not making the team.

* David Hernandez struck out 4 in 1.2 IP, but he did give up a solo home run.

The Bad:

* Guthrie also gave up a run on two hits and two walks in the second inning.

* Nick also struck out chasing a high fastball, and then again an off-speed pitch down and in.

* Kam The Almighty continued his Spring Training struggles, pitching a scoreless inning but giving up a couple of long flyballs and being saved twice by his defense.

* Armando Gabino gave up 3 runs on four hits, while recording just one out.

* Miguel Tejada is still batting clean-up. I really don’t approve of that turn of events. I like Dave Trembley fine, and I don’t think either line-up construction or managers in general have much of an effect, but if even one time during the regular season I see Cesar Izturis batting second and Miguel Tejada batting fourth, I’ll want Dave fired.

In what might be a script that replays itself a few times this season, the Orioles held a lead going into the later innings but Boston came back against the bullpen and ended up winning 5-4. The O’s drop to 1-4 in Spring Training.

The Good:

* Ty Wigginton had two hits, including a home run off off Verlander.

* Matt Albers did a fine job in relief, pitching 2.1 innings and giving up just a single.

* Cla Meredith also had a perfect inning, including a K.

* Rhyne Hughes hit another home run, in his only at bat of the game. That makes a team-leading three for the Spring, though I don’t think any number will get him a spot on the team.

The Bad:

* Millwood’s Orioles career didn’t get off to the best start, with Clete Thomas taking him deep. Then things got better, but only relatively speaking. He ended up getting just two outs, while giving up 6 runs on 7 hits and a walk.

* Not a great appearance for Brandon Erbe either, as he gave up three runs (including a homer).

The O’s went down early and didn’t have time to catch up, losing 9-4 to Detroit. The Birds drop to 1-3 for the Spring. Good strategy guys; best to get the losses out of the way now.

The Good:

* Chris Tillman struck out three in two perfect innings, with two of his remaining three outs being on the ground. Good signs all around.

* Adam Jones went yard for his first of the Spring – nice that it was to the opposite field as well.

* Miguel Tejada reportedly making a couple nice plays at third. He also cracked a double at the plate.

* Chorye Spoone pitched (OK). I has very high on him before his injuries, so it’s just nice to have him out on the mound.

* Hard-throwing reliever Luis Lebron struck out two in his perfect inning.

The Bad:

* Mike Gonzalez gave up a run on two hits and a walk. It wasn’t a save situation though, so obviously it doesn’t matter.

* Jake Arrieta K’ed two, but also walked a pair and gave up a hit and a run in one inning of work. Sounds like he was a little shaky. At least another half-season in the minors sounds like a good idea to me (irrespective of his Spring Training performance).

* Alfredo Simon (I didn’t actually know he was still with the team) gave up two runs in the ninth and took the loss. Not going to be the #3 starter this year (I hope).

* Nick Markakis went 0-3 and struck out twice. If the K’s means he’s willing to work deeper into counts and maybe walk more, then this might actually belong in the “Good” column.

O’s go down 5-3, and drop to 1-2 in Spring Training. I guess they’ll lose 100+ games this season.