Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團

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A further prices weakness is likely

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Wed, 21 May 2008 12:46:59 PDT

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday May 21, 2008.

Stocks stumble out of gate Tuesday with the Dow losing nearly 200 points. As a matter of fact, today trading action is very consistent to the bearish "turnaround Tuesday" scenario that we've offered right here in the previous Market Outlook.

Contributed to the overall weaknesses were another record high energy prices, bearish news on financial stocks and a higher than expected core inflation reading.

U.S. light crude oil rose $2.26 to settle at a record $128.98 after hitting a new intra-day trading record of $129.10 a barrel earlier in the session.

Chart 1.1 Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

In fact, today's trading action had confirmed the validity of the "test of an important sentiment 130 level" hypothesis that we've offered a couple days ago when we wrote that: "prices' basing sideway near high as the market works off the overbought condition. The action is bullish and suggesting that there is a pretty good chance that we'll see a test of an important sentiment 130 level in the days ahead."

Technically speaking, Tuesday's bullish breakout had cleared the one-week congestion pattern and helped setting the stage for an upward push above the important sentiment 130 level. In addition, the MACD indicator is also trending above its signal line, and hence, confirms the bullish trend. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below last week's low at 122.60 can wreck the near-term bullish outlook.

Crude's jump pushed the Dow Jones transport, which posted an all time high Monday, lower down 0.79%. Though it worth notice that, shares of Pacer International Inc (PACR) bucks the overall trend, up 1% for the day. The gain, while small, is pretty bullish given the overall pessimism surrounding transport stocks. It's indicating that there is a pretty good dose of optimism in the stock.

Chart 1.2 Pacer International Inc (daily).

Initially profiled in May 01 "Swing trader bulletin", shares of the air delivery & freight services provider has appreciated more than 7% and remains well position. From a technical point of view, we really like the trading action in the past couple of days price climbs steadily above the one-month congestion area after a pullback to support at the area of January trend-line was met with a new wave of buying enthusiasm. In addition, recent MACD indicator bullish crossover also strengthens the bull case the MACD had not only crossed above its signal line but also trending above the zero line and hence, confirmed the bullish trend. The best case scenario would be an upward push to the area of last August' high, about 22. This, if hurdle and sustain, will increase the probability for a test of the long-term overhead supply at the area of last February's bearish breakdown gap, about 30.

Financial stocks were underselling pressure Tuesday after the highly influential Oppenheimer's Meredith Whitney opined that the credit crisis will extend into 2009. The KBW bank index dropped 2.33% as a result.

Chart 1.3 KBW bank index (daily).

It seems to us that the sector is heading back to the critical support around the 75 area. Also, the bearish MACD crossover appeared to favor the bear case. Right now the most obvious level to watch is, of course, the 75 level. This, if violates, will trigger all sorts of stops, hence, has the potential to push prices into the area of 2003 low, about 65. The breakdown, if and when it comes, shall take the board market down with it. Key resistance is at the area of May high, about 89.

Bad news surrounding financial stocks dragged down the S&P 500 after all, it comprises 16.5% of the board market index.

Chart 1.4 S&P 500 index (daily).

The index printed an evening star pattern at the area of key resistance (see chart). This is very bearish and indicating a change in the direction of the trend. Right now, we'll be watching the May 09^th low at 1384. As mentioned, a walk below this level will push prices directly into the 50-day moving average. And this, if violates, will put an end to the eight-week recovery rally.

In summary: there is no need to sugar coating it Tuesday's trading action is outright bearish and suggesting further prices weaknesses in the next two to five trading sessions.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

大盤或進一步走低

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Wed, 21 May 2008 12:44:55 PDT

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月21日(週三)的市場技術分析。

昨天美股開盤即出現下跌，道指低收近200點。事實上，昨天大盤的走勢同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的"轉跌"判斷十分吻合。

導致昨天大盤走軟的因素一是能源價格再上新高，二是金融股的負面新聞，三是高於預期的核心通脹數字。

昨天美國輕質低硫原油一度沖高至每桶129.10美元，最後收於128.98美元的收盤新高，上漲2.26美元。

圖1.1 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

事實上，昨天原油的走勢確認了我們數天前提出的"測試130美元重要心理關口"的判斷的有效性，我們當時寫道："價格在高位進行整固，對超買局面進行消化。這一走勢是看漲的，意味著未來數天油價很有可能測試130美元的重要心理關口。"

從技術上講，週二的發力上攻突破了一周來的整理區間，為下一步站上130美元的重要關口打下了基礎。另外，MACD指標同樣高於信號線，確認了看漲的走勢。在目前關頭，只有堅定跌破122.60美元的上周低點，才能逆轉近期看漲的態勢。

原油價格的大漲將道瓊斯運輸指數從週一創出的歷史新高拉下0.79%。不過值得注意的是，昨天Pacer International(PACR)逆市上揚，上漲1%。儘管漲幅不大，但是考慮到整個運輸板塊的普跌局面，該股的走勢仍是非常有利的，說明投資者對該股的樂觀情緒比較重。

圖1.2 Pacer International(日線圖)

自從我們在5月1日的Swing trader bulletin中對該運輸和物流服務提供商作出推薦以來，迄今漲幅已經超過7%，而且還有上漲空間。從技術上講，我們非常喜歡該股過去幾個交易日的走勢價格回調至1月份開始的上升趨勢線支撐時迎來強勁買盤，隨後穩步攀升、突破一個月來的運行區間。另外，近期MACD指標交叉至信號線上方(金叉)並高於零線，這也確認了上漲的趨勢。該股最好的情況是一路上攻至去年8月高點區域，大約22美元。如果這一阻力被有效突破，將增加測試去年2月向下跳空缺口處長期上檔供給位的可能性，大約30美元。

週二金融股遭遇賣壓，原因是Oppenheimer知名分析師梅雷迪斯-惠特尼(Meredith Whitney)認為信貸危機將持續到2009年。KBW銀行指數下跌2.33%。

圖1.3 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

看起來，銀行板塊似乎正在返回75點附近的關鍵支撐位。同時，MACD指標出現死叉，也支持看跌的判斷。目前最應該關注的位置顯然是75點，如果這一支撐被洞穿，將觸發大量止損，從而有可能將價格打壓至2003年低點區域，大約65點。如果銀行板塊最終向下突破，必將拖累大盤下行。關鍵阻力位在 5月高點，大約89點。

金融股的負面消息拖累了標普，畢竟金融股在標普500中的權重高達16.5%。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

指數在關鍵阻力位處收出了一根"黃昏之星"(Evening Star)燭線，這是一個嚴重看跌的信號，預示著趨勢的反轉。目前我們應該關注5月9日低點，1384點。我們提到過，標普若跌破該支撐將進一步滑向50 日均線，而50日線一旦失守，將宣告8周來這一波上漲行情的終結。

總結：毋庸諱言，週二大盤的走勢非常不利，預示著未來2到5個交易日還將進一步走低。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Turnaround Tuesday

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Tue, 20 May 2008 12:03:35 PDT

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday May 20, 2008.

We've noted right here in the previous Market Outlook that: "it seems to us that the eight-week recovery rally is now getting heavy. However, unless there is a headline that everyone recognizes as extremely bearish, there is a pretty good chance that this bear-market rally will continue to go on for awhile longer." Stocks opened on a positive note Monday with the S&P 500 hit a five-month high amid a stronger-than-expected economic indicators report. The market, however, struggled in the afternoon on record commodity prices.

With regard to commodities, U.S. light crude oil for June delivery rose 76 cents to settle at a record $127.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after hitting an all-time trading high of $127.82 a barrel Friday. Gold added $3.50 or 0.39% to settle at $904.80.

Chart 1.1 World gold index (daily).

The yellow metal rallied directly into the area of 50-day moving average after the test of support at the area of 200-day moving average was met with an aggressive wave of buying interest. As a matter of fact, recent trading action was pretty consistent to the "technical rebound" scenario that we've offered right here a couple week ago when we wrote that: "price pullback to key support at the area of 200-day moving average. Not only that this is a strong support, in fact this is the area where bargain hunters often place their bets, the RSI indicator is also indicating an extreme oversold condition a situation that precursor to a meaningful technical rebound. That being said, recent sell-off seems to be overdone and this will eventually trigger a major buying opportunity." As you can see, the yellow metal has gained about 50 points immediately followed our positive comment.

However, with the short-term RSI indicator is fast approaching the overbought level as prices rallied directly into the area of 50-day moving average, it seems to us that the stage had been set for a pullback consolidation. That being said, while we've became aggressively bullish at the downside re-test of 200-day moving average in early May, believing that the test would be successful, we've, regrettably, turned cautious now.

Speaking of gold, shares of Yamana Gold Inc (AUY) added on to last week's strong gain, up 1.26% for the day. Initially profiled in May 02 "Swing Trader Bulletin", AUY gains more than +17% and remains well position.

Chart 1.2 Yamana Gold Inc (daily).

From a technical point of view, we really like the trading action in the past couple of days - a modest pullback to minor support around the $14 level followed by an upside thrust directly into the area of key resistance. Right now, the most obvious level to watch is today's high at $15.49. This, if hurdle and sustained, will complete the bullish inverse Head-Shoulder pattern, hence, has the potential to fuel an acceleration run toward March's high, about $20. In short, the near-term outlook remains bullish barring a close below last week's low at $13.80.

Negative headlines surrounding financial stocks - Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Lehman Brothers (LEH) all lost about 2% after having their second quarter earnings estimates cut at Citigroup (C) dragged down the board market. The S&P 500 index, which rose as much as 1% in early Monday session, ended the day near the zero line.

Chart 1.3 S&P 500 index (daily).

Last week we've said that: "while Thursday's trading action is bullish and indicating that the market is ready for an upward push above the 200-day moving average, trading volume didn't seem supporting the underlying advance. This is a bearish relationship and suggesting that the rally might not sustain." As we saw, they did exactly that almost immediately followed the early panic buying that took the S&P above the 200-day moving average, the bears stepped in and pushed the index back under the 200-day MA (see chart). The index printed an ugly bearish shooting star candlestick on the daily chart as a result. In addition, the short-term RSI indicator is also indicating an extreme overbought condition. Right now, follow-through is the key. We'll be watching the 1420 level. This, if violate, will trigger a large-scale sell-off that has the potential to push prices directly into the area of May 09^th low at 1384, then the 50-day moving average afterward. At this juncture, only sustain advance above today high at 1440.24 can wreck the short-term bearish outlook.

In summary: it seems to us that Monday's bearish trading action had helped setting the stage for a turnaround Tuesday. However, unless the bears manage to push prices below S&P 1384, the upcoming correction is merely a consolidation that would eventually trigger a major buying opportunity.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

美股今日將轉跌

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Tue, 20 May 2008 12:02:32 PDT

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月20日(週二)的市場技術分析。

在昨天的市場前瞻中我們提到："在我們看來，大盤八周來的這一輪反彈行情步履已經十分『沉重』。不過，除非出現非常負面的重大利空消息，這一輪熊市反彈行情仍很有可能再堅持一會兒。"受一份好於預期的經濟報告的推動，週一美股高開，其中標普上摸5個月來最高點。不過下午隨著大宗商品繼續創出新高，股市沖高回落。

商品方面，紐約商業交易所6月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油期貨價格上週五盤中沖高至每桶127.82美元的歷史新高之後，昨天創出每桶127.05美元的收盤紀錄，上漲76美分。黃金上漲3.50美元，收於每盎司904.80美元，漲幅0.39%。

圖1.1 世界黃金指數(日線圖)

黃金在測試200日線支撐之後迎來強勁買盤，已經一路上攻至50日均線的關鍵阻力位。事實上，黃金的走勢同我們在兩周前的的市場前瞻中提出的 "技術反彈" 的判斷非常吻合，我們當時提到："金價近期的回調走勢已經使得價格逼近200日均線區域。200日線是一個強大的支撐位，而且很多投資者都會等著在這裡抄底，另外相對強弱指標(RSI)也顯示嚴重超賣，因此接下來很可能出現一波強勁的技術反彈。由此來看，最近的拋盤已經有些矯枉過正，最終會觸發獲利空間巨大的買入機會。"我們可以看到，自從我們作出看漲評論以來，金價已經上漲約50個點。

不過，隨著價格攻至50日均線，短期相對強弱指標(RSI)已經快速接近超賣，因此接下來很可能出現一波回調整理行情。總而言之，儘管5月初金價重新測試200日均線的時候我們極力看漲，不過很遺憾，現在我們的態度轉為謹慎了。

說到黃金，昨天Yamana Gold Inc(AUY)繼續上周的強勁攻勢，上漲1.26%。自從我們最早在5月2日的Swing Trader Bulletin中對該股作出推薦以來，迄今已經上漲超過17%，而且依然有上漲空間。

圖1.2 Yamana Gold(日線圖)

從技術上講，我們非常喜歡該股過去幾個交易日的形態，股價小幅回調至14美元左右的次要支撐位之後強力上攻，目前已經觸到關鍵阻力位。目前最應該關注的位置是昨日高點(15.49美元)，如果這一位置被有效突破，將形成一個看漲的"頭肩底"形態，從而有可能使價格加速朝3月高點進發，大約20美元。總而言之，除非接下來收盤跌破13.80美元的上周低點，近期走勢依然看漲。

昨天，花旗集團(C)調降了高盛(GS)、摩根士丹利(MS)和雷曼兄弟(LEH)等大型金融公司第二財季盈利預期，上述金融股昨天均下跌2%左右。金融股的不利走勢拖累了大盤，標普500指數昨日盤中一度上漲1%，但最後收於平盤點位附近。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

上週五我們在評論中提到："昨天的走勢對後市是有利的，意味著市場已經準備好向200日均線的關鍵阻力發起攻擊，不過成交量並不支持這一可能走勢。價量關係不太有利，說明上漲動能難以持續。"我們可以看到，昨天標普的走勢同我們的判斷如出一轍，早盤標普站上200日線之後立即迎來強勁買盤，但隨後空頭大舉入場，將指數拉回200日線下方，收出一根不利的射擊之星(Shooting Star) 燭線。另外，短期相對強弱指標(RSI)也顯示嚴重超買的局面。目前，大盤應該會繼續下跌動能。我們將會關注1420點的位置，如果被突破，將激發大面積拋盤，從而有可能將股指推向5月9日低點(1384點)，然後是50日均線。在當前形勢下，只有有效站上1440.24點的昨日高點，才能逆轉短期看跌的態勢。

總結：昨天的行情是一個看跌信號，在我們看來，今天大盤有可能開始由升轉跌。不過，除非空頭成功將標普打壓至1384點下方，否則接下來的回調可能只是一波整理行情，並最終激發強勁的做多意願。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

美股今日將轉跌

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Tue, 20 May 2008 12:00:47 PDT

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月20日(週二)的市場技術分析。

圖1.1 世界黃金指數(日線圖)

圖1.2 Yamana Gold(日線圖)

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

The rally is now getting heavy

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Tue, 20 May 2008 11:58:20 PDT

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday May 19, 2008.

Stocks finished around the unchanged mark Friday. Though do not let the flat tape fool you, Friday trading action was pretty bullish considering that the S&P 500 ending Friday session at a more than 4-month high the board market index up in four out of five trading sessions last week in a face of a record high energy prices.

U.S. light crude oil rallied $2.19 to close at $126.04 a barrel, after hitting an all-time intraday high of $127.30 earlier.

Chart 1.1 Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

Technically speaking, today's bullish breakout above the one-week consolidation pattern had confirmed the validity of the "test of an important sentiment 130 level" hypothesis that we've offered right here in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: "price is basing sideway near high as it works off the overbought condition. The action is bullish and suggesting that there is a pretty good chance that we'll see a test of an important sentiment 130 level in the days ahead." In short, the near term outlook remains bullish barring a close below last week's low at 122.60. This, if violates, will have the potential to push prices into the area of immediate support at the area of April's high, about 117; then the February trend-line, now at 115, afterward.

Speaking of energy, James River Coal Company (JRCC) made a very nice move Friday closing up nearly 7% for the session.

Chart 1.2 James River Coal Company (daily).

Initially profiled in March 26 "Swing Trader Bulletin", JRCC has gained more than +120% and remains well positioned. From a technical point of view, we really like the trading action in the past couple of weeks trading volume surge as prices cut through important resistance levels. This has been a great setup for a test of the all-time high set on September 2005 at $52.56. Support is at the area of April's high, about $26.75.

Despite the better-than-expected earnings results for the most recent quarter from several popular retailers like Nordstrom (JWN), Kohl's (KSS), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), retail stocks were underselling pressure Friday. The S&P 500 Retail Index ended the session 1.09% lower.

Chart 1.3 S&P 500 Retail Index (daily).

Price retreated slightly after the test of the ten-month falling trend-line was met with a new wave of selling interest. Not only that this is a tough level to overcome, the short-term RSI indicator also indicating that the sector is pretty much overbought; so it wouldn't surprise us to see a retest of support at the area of the monthly's low, about 390. This, if violates, will put an end to the March's recovery rally and increase an odds for a retest of critical support at the area of March's low, about 362.

One of the more actively traded shares in the IPO market was Titan Machinery Inc (TITN). Shares of the agricultural and construction equipment retailer jumped almost 11% Friday on explosive volume.

Chart 1.4 Titan Machinery Inc (daily).

Initially profiled in our May 13 "Swing trader bulletin", Titan has gained about +17%b and remains well position. Technically speaking, Friday's bullish breakout had helped setting the stage for a test of April's high at $24.50. This, if hurdle and sustained, will trigger an acceleration run into the uncharted territory. At this juncture, only a close below May 01^st low at $17.59 can wreck the near-term bullish outlook.

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, speaking Friday afternoon, said that "we are closer to the end of the market turmoil than the beginning" regarding to the current financial market turmoil. Still, financial stocks were underselling pressure Friday. The KBW bank index lost 2.26% to finish at 80.73.

Chart 1.5 KBW bank index (daily).

Prices continue basing sideway near support at the area of the weekly's low. The medium-term RSI indicator is also fast approaching the oversold level. So it wouldn't surprise us to see some aggressive buying activities around the area of April's 24^th low at 78.63. Although bear in mind that a failure to hold above this level will trigger a large-scale sell-off that has the potential to push prices back into the area of critical support around the 75 level.

Despite the negative sentiment in the financials stocks and another spike in oil prices that nearly carried crude to nearly $128 a barrel, equities shook off late-day weakness to finish around the flat line. The S&P 500 index up 0.13%.

Chart 1.6 S&P 500 index (daily).

As expected, the market tried to move higher though still, it's unable to take out the 200-day moving average. Again, not only that this is a tough level to overcome, the short-term RSI indicator is also indicating that the market is pretty much overbought. So it wouldn't surprise us to see a retest of immediate support at the area of last week's low, about 1384, in the days ahead. This, if violates, will increase the odds for a retest of key support at the area of the 50-day moving average, about 1350.

In summary: it seems to us that the eight-week recovery rally is now getting "heavy". However, unless there is a headline that everyone recognizes as extremely bearish, there is a pretty good chance that this bear-market rally will continue to go on for awhile longer. From a long-term perspective, until we see a positive turnaround in the financial and retail complexes, the bears still have a benefit of the doubts.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

大盤上行動能不足

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Tue, 20 May 2008 11:56:31 PDT

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月19日(週一)的市場技術分析。

上週五美股基本不漲不跌。不過不要被平收的結果所欺騙，上週五的行情事實上是非常有利的，因為收盤標普站上了4個多月來的最高點，而且儘管能源價格不斷創出新高，標普上週五個交易日有四天出現上漲。

上週五美國輕質原油價格盤中上摸127.30美元的歷史高點，最後收於每桶126.04美元，上漲2.19美元。

圖1.1 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

從技術上講，上週五突破一周來整理區間的走勢是非常有利的，並確認了我們在上週五的市場前瞻中提出的"測試130美元重要心理關口" 判斷的有效性，我們當時寫道："原油價格繼續高位盤整，並慢慢走出超買區域。這一走勢是看漲的，未來數天油價測試130美元重要心理關口的可能性非常大。"總而言之，除非油價收盤跌破122.60美元的上周低點，近期走勢依然看漲。如果跌破上周低點，產生的下跌動能有可能將價格打壓至4月高點區域的緊鄰支撐位，大約117美元，下一個重要支撐位是2月份開始的上升趨勢線，目前位於115美元。

能源股方面，James River Coal Company(JRCC)上週五走勢非常強勁，漲幅接近7%。

圖1.2 James River Coal Company(日線圖)

自從我們最早在3月26日的Swing Trader Bulletin中對JRCC作出推薦以來，該股漲幅已經超過120%，而且仍有上漲空間。從技術形態來看，過去兩周的走勢非常有利，價格強力攻佔重要阻力位，同時量能大幅放大。目前該股已經準備好向上測試2005年9月的歷史高點，位於52.56美元。支撐位在4月高點附近，大約26.75點。

儘管幾大主要零售商Nordstrom(JWN)、Kohl's (KSS)和Abercrombie & Fitch(ANF)等最近季度盈利狀況好於市場預期，但上週五零售股依然遭遇賣壓。標普500零售指數低收1.09%。

圖1.3 標普500零售指數(日線圖)

零售指數在測試10個月下降趨勢線的時候遭遇新一輪賣壓，價格出現小幅回調。不但該趨勢線是一個易守難攻的阻力位，而且短期相對強弱指標 (RSI)也顯示板塊已經嚴重超買，因此接下來指數出現向下測試本月低點(大約390點)的走勢是不足為奇的。如果該低點支撐失守，板塊從3月份開始的反彈行情將宣告終結，並增加重新測試3月低點關鍵支撐的可能性，大約362點。

上週五IPO市場上交易最活躍的一隻股票是中國的農業和建築設備零售商Titan Machinery(TITN)。該股上週五成交量放出天量，價格大漲11%以上。

圖1.4 Titan Machinery(日線圖)

我們最早在5月13日的Swing trader bulletin中對該股作出了推薦，迄今漲幅已經達到17%左右，而且仍有上漲空間。從技術上講，上週五的強勁飆升為接下來測試4月高點阻力打下了基礎，大約24.50美元。如果有效突破這一位置，可能會加速上攻至上方無人地帶。就目前而言，只有收盤跌破5月1日低點，才有可能逆轉近期的看漲態勢。

上週五下午，美國財長亨利-保爾森在談到金融市場形勢的時候說道："金融動盪的局面已經接近尾聲，而不是開始。"不過上週五金融股仍迎來強勁拋盤，KBW銀行指數大跌2.26%，收於80.73點。

圖1.5 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

銀行指數繼續在一周來低點支撐附近橫向整固。中期相對強弱指標(RSI)同樣快速接近超賣水平。因此在78.63點的4月24日低點附近迎來強力買盤是不足為奇的。不過我們需要注意，如果指數未能守住這一位置，必將觸發大面積拋盤，從而有可能將價格推向75點附近的關鍵支撐區域。

儘管金融股全線殺跌、油價攀高至接近每桶128美元的高位，大盤還是成功收復了早盤的失地，收於平盤點位。標普500指數上漲0.13%。

圖1.6 標普500指數(日線圖)

恰如我們所料，市場仍在試圖上攻，不過始終無法攻佔200日線的強大阻力。不但這一阻力易守難攻，而且短期相對強弱指標(RSI)也顯示嚴重超買，因此未來數天標普很有可能重新測試1384點的上周低點支撐。如果這一支撐被擊穿，將增加重新測試50日均線關鍵支撐區域的可能性，大約1350點。

總結：在我們看來，大盤八周來的這一輪反彈行情步履已經十分"沉重"。不過，除非出現非常負面的重大利空消息，這一輪熊市反彈行情仍很有可能再堅持一會兒。從長期來看，除非金融股和零售股出現回暖，否則空頭仍佔據著主導權。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Another week, another victory

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Tue, 20 May 2008 11:54:28 PDT

Market is everything but quiet in the past couple of days and we think this is a good time for a quick review.

Initially profiled in March 26 "Swing Trader Bulletin", James River Coal Company (JRCC) has gained more than +120% and remains well positioned.

Actually, we really like the action over the past few weeks volume picked up as prices cut through key resistance (see chart). As mentioned, we're still bullish on JRCC and expecting the stock to trend higher.

Shares of China Financial Online (JRJC) rose more than +18% today on massive volume. The stock had gains about 40% since profiled in April 25 "Swing Trader Bulletin" as a potential buy candidate.

One of the more actively traded shares in the IPO market was Titan Machinery Inc (TITN). The stock jumped more than 10% today on explosive volume.

As you can see, TITN gains about +17% in just 3 days after profiled in May 13 "Swing Trader Bulletin" as a potential buy candidate. Today's bullish breakout had helped setting the stage for an acceleration run into the uncharted territory.

Other winning trades included:

Big Lots Inc (BIG) set up on April 15, 2008. The position gains more than 30% in about a month.
Lsb Industries Inc (LXU) up about +23% since set up in March 25, 2008.
Yamana Gold Inc (AUY) set up on May 02, 2008. The position gains about +16% in about 10 days.
Fording Canadian Coal (FDG) set up on May 05, 2008. The position gains about +14% in just 2 weeks.
Metropcs Communication Inc (PCS) profiled on May 12, 2008. The stock gains about +10% in a week.
Del Monte Foods Co (DLM) up about +9% since set up in April 30, 2008.

These are just couples of many successful trades that our member had enjoyed recently. After all, aren't you glad you subscribed?

P.S. Take advantage of the 30 days special trial [new member only]. Join hundred others receiving these daily trading ideas by click here to subscribe.

S&P seems poised for an upward push above the 200-day moving average

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Fri, 16 May 2008 13:20:47 PDT

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday May 16, 2008.

As expected, stocks spent Thursday's morning trading around the zero line though a pullback in crude oil sparked a strong recovery rally in the afternoon with a majority of major indices up more than 1%.

U.S. light crude oil fell 26 cents to settle at $123.85 a barrel in a volatile session - crude traded as high as $125.70 per barrel, near its all time record high set last week.

Chart 1.1 Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

Price continues basing sideway near high as it works off the overbought condition. The action is bullish and suggesting that there is a pretty good chance that we'll see a test of an important sentiment 130 level in the days ahead. Key support is at the area of April's high, about 117.

Tech stocks attracted some strong buying interest Thursday with the NASDAQ composite index rose 1.48% to finish at 2533.

Chart 1.2 NASDAQ composite index (daily).

The main event here is a climb above the 200-day moving average on strong volume. The action is bullish and helped setting the stage for a test of key resistance at the area of January's bearish breakdown gap, about 2570. Immediate support is at the area of last week's low, about 2430.

Speaking of tech, shares of MetroPCS Communications Inc. (PCS) jumped 5.50% on explosive volume.

Chart 1.3 MetroPCS Communications Inc. (daily).

Initially profiled in our May 12 "Swing trader bulletin" share of the wireless communications provider gains more than 7% and remained well position. Technically speaking, today's bullish breakout had helped setting the stage for a test of key resistance around the 22.70-24 area. Immediate support is at the 50-day moving average, about 18.50.

The drop in energy prices gave stocks a nice boost with the S&P 500 index gained about 15 points or 1.06% to close at 1423.

Chart 1.4 S&P 500 index (daily).

The board market index claimed a new four-month high today. While today's trading action is bullish and indicating that the market is ready for an upward push above the 200-day moving average, trading volume didn't seem supporting the underlying advance. This is a bearish relationship and suggesting that the rally might not sustain. Immediate support is at the area of last week's low, about 1384.

In summary: Thursday's bullish trading action had helped setting the stage for an upward push above the S&P 200-day moving average. Unless the break of resistance happens on a big volume surge, the breakout might not sustain. As usual, we must stress out that tomorrow is the options expiration day, which is the most volatile trading session of the month, so you've got to watch-out for fake-head, or false price breakout.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

標普準備上攻200日線

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Fri, 16 May 2008 13:19:23 PDT

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月16日(週五)的市場技術分析。

恰如我們所料，昨天上午美股在前一交易日收盤附近運行，不過原油價格的回調在下午刺激大盤強力沖高，大部分主要股指漲幅均超過1%。

昨天美國輕質低硫原油價格強烈震盪，盤中一度上摸每桶125.70美元，接近上周創出的歷史新高，不過收盤出現回調，下跌26美分，收於123.85美元。

圖1.1 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

原油價格繼續高位盤整，並慢慢走出超買區域。這一走勢是看漲的，未來數天油價測試130美元重要心理關口的可能性非常大。重要支撐位在4月高點區域，大約117美元。

昨天科技股迎來強勁買盤，納斯達克綜合指數大漲1.48%，收於2533點。

圖1.2 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)

昨天納指放量站上200日均線，這一點非常關鍵。因此昨天的走勢是看漲的，並為接下來測試1月份向下突破缺口的重要阻力位埋下了伏筆，大約2570點。緊鄰支撐位在上周低點，大約2430點。

科技股方面，昨天無線通訊服務供應商MetroPCS Communications(PCS)股價大漲5.5%，而且成交量暴增。

圖1.3 MetroPCS Communications(日線圖)

我們最早在Swing trader bulletin中對該股作出了推薦，至今漲幅已經超過7%，而且仍有很大的上漲空間。從技術上講，昨天的強勢突破是非常有利的，並為接下來測試22.7 -24美元的重要阻力帶打下了基礎。緊鄰支撐位在50日均線，大約18.50點。

能源價格的下跌有力地推高了股市，標普500指數走高大約15個點，收於1423點，漲幅1.06%。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

昨天的大漲已經使得標普站上4個月來新高。昨天的走勢對後市是有利的，意味著市場已經準備好向200日均線的關鍵阻力發起攻擊，不過成交量並不支持這一可能走勢。價量關係不太有利，說明上漲動能難以持續。緊鄰支撐位在上周低點區域，大約1384點。

總結：週四大盤的走勢比較有利，為下一步標普站上200日線做好了準備。不過除非突破阻力位的走勢伴隨著成交量的大幅放大，否則突破還是會出現失敗。另外，我們必須提醒大家，今天是本月的期權到期日，有可能出現本月來震盪最劇烈的行情，因此今天出現"假突破"的走勢是很有可能的，對此須有心理準備。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

The stage had been set for a test of weeklys low

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Fri, 16 May 2008 13:18:00 PDT

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday May 15, 2008.

Stocks opened on a positive noted Wednesday in response to a milder-than-expected inflation report and falling oil prices also helped dampen inflation concerns. However, the sense that the market is pretty much overbought in a short-term basis triggered a large-scale sell-off that caused the major indices to give up a great bulk of their early gains. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average gained 66 points or 0.5% to 12898 - that was about 100 points off its intraday high of 12993. The Standard & Poor's 500 index up 0.4%.

Despite the late-day weakness, shares of Lsb Industries Inc (LXU) held pretty well to the early gain - up 6.52% on strong volume.

Chart 1.1 Lsb Industries Inc (daily).

Initially profiled in March 25 "Swing trader Bulletin", LXU has gained about 16% and remains well position. Actually, we really like the action over the past few days - volume picked up as prices cut through the March and April highs (see chart). Technically, today's bullish breakout had helped clear the one-week overhead resistance and set the stage for a test of key resistance around the area of the 200-day moving average, about $21. In short, the near term outlook remains bullish barring a close below last week's low at $16.25.

Large-cap tech stocks saw a steeper retreat from their intraday high after being up 1.3%, the NASDAQ 100 index ETF (QQQQ) ended Wednesday trading session with a 0.22% lost. As matter of fact, today's trading action was pretty consistent to the "fake-out" scenario that we've offered in the previous "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" when we wrote that: "there is a pretty good chance that we'll see a test of January's bearish breakdown gap, about $50, follow by a bearish reversal into the area of 200-day moving average." The stock gave up all of the early gains - it reached as high as $49.93 in early Wednesday trading and close slightly lower after the test of resistance at the $50 level was met with an aggressive wave of selling interest. Any ATM (at the money) put options traded could have gained at least 100% intraday.

Chart 1.2 QQQQ (daily).

Price printed a bearish reversal bar right at the area of key resistance. Trading volume also confirmed the validity of today's bearish trading action. Technically speaking, these are bearish signs and suggesting further weaknesses in the days ahead. Immediate support is at the area of 200-day moving average, about $48. This, if violates, will trigger a large-scale sell-off that has the potential to push prices directly into the area the 50-day moving average, about $45.75.

Similar to the NASDAQ, the S&P also printed a bearish shooting star candlestick on the daily chart.

Chart 1.3 S&P 500 index (daily).

As it was the case in the past couple of days, price dropped hard every time it hit the 200-day moving average, about 1425. So, it seems to us that the 200-day moving average is the line on sand. Also notice that volume picked up today though the real volume surge was due to late-day selling. And again, this is bearish. Right now, the most obvious level to watch is last Friday's low at 1384. As mentioned, a sustain decline below this level will trigger a large-scale sell-off that has the potential to push prices into the area of the 50-day moving average, about 1350.

In summary: Wednesday's trading action is pretty bearish and helped setting the stage for a test of last week's low at S&P 1384, then 1350 afterward. As mentioned, a failure to hold above this level will put an end to the powerful eight-week rally.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

大盤將測試一周低點

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Fri, 16 May 2008 13:15:45 PDT

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月15日(週四)的市場技術分析。

由於昨天公佈的CPI報告顯示通脹壓力趨緩，同時油價回落也減輕了投資者對通脹的擔憂，週三美股開盤走高。不過由於投資者意識到市場在短期內已經嚴重超賣，午後各大股指沖高回落，放棄了很大一部分漲幅。交易日結束，道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲66點，收於12898點，漲幅0.5%，不過比起盤中 12993的當日最高點仍低100點左右。標普500指數上漲0.4%。

儘管大盤尾盤重跌，Lsb Industries(LXU)股票卻很好地守住了上午的成果，放量大漲6.52%。

圖1.1 Lsb Industries(日線圖)

自從我們最早在3月25日的Swing trader Bulletin中對LXU作出推薦以來，該股已經上漲約16%，而且還有上漲空間。事實上，我們非常喜歡該股最近一段時間的走勢，價格突破3月和4月高點強力上攻，同時量能出現放大。從技術上講，昨天的強勢突破清除了一周來的上方阻力，為下一步測試200日均線附近的關鍵阻力打下了基礎，大約21美元。總而言之，除非股價跌破 16.25美元的上周低點，該股近期趨勢依然看漲。

昨天大盤科技股從當日高點出現深度回撤，NASDAQ 100 index ETF(QQQQ)盤中最高上漲1.3%，收盤翻紅下跌0.22%。事實上，昨天QQQQ的走勢同我們在昨天的Cubes Speculator Bulletin中提出的"假突破"的判斷非常吻合，我們當時提到："QQQQ非常有可能對1月份向下突破缺口作出測試(大約50美元)，然後掉頭向下，進入200日均線區域。"QQQQ昨日盤中一度上摸49.93美元，但是在測試50美元阻力位的時候遭遇強勁賣壓，全部放棄取得的成果且小幅低收。昨天任何平值看跌期權收益率都至少在100%。

圖1.2 QQQQ(日線圖)

昨天QQQQ剛好在關鍵阻力區域收出一根上影線，同時量能也確認了昨天的行情為看跌信號。從技術上講，放量下跌意味著未來數天價格還將進一步走低。緊鄰支撐位在200日均線區域，大約48美元。如果該支撐被突破，將觸發大面積拋盤，有可能直接將價格推低至50日均線區域，大約45.75美元。

同納指類似，昨天標普也在日線圖上收出了一根長上影線的燭形。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

同過去幾個交易日一樣，每次價格上攻200日線(大約1425點)都會大幅回撤。因此看起來200日線似乎固若金湯。我們還注意到，昨天成交量有所上升，不過真正量能大漲恰恰是尾盤回調的階段，這也是一個看跌的信號。目前最應該關注的位置是上週五的低點，1384點。正如我們提到的，如果指數有效跌破這一位置，將觸發大規模拋盤，從而有可能將價格推至50日均線區域，大約1350點。

總結：昨天大盤的走勢是非常不利的，並為標普測試1384點的上周低點埋下了伏筆，如果1384點失守，接下來就是1350點。我們提到過，1350點失守，則意味著8周來的這一波強勁反彈行情壽終正寢。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Market had lost the positive momentum

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Fri, 16 May 2008 13:13:34 PDT

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday May 14, 2008.

We've offered right here in the previous Market Outlook that: "Monday's trading action is bullish and suggesting further short-term gains. However, the trading volume didn't seem supporting the strong price action. And this is indicating that the upcoming rally, if and when it comes, should be considered as a selling opportunity." Stocks closed slightly lower Tuesday amid a fresh round profit taking activities. Contributed to the overall weaknesses were another record energy prices and Wal-Mart's (WMT) disappointing earning guidance.

Crude oil spiked to an all-time high of $126.50 per barrel, before settling with a gain of 1.57% at $125.80.

Chart 1.1 Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

Price continues basing sideway near high as it works off the extreme overbought condition. The action is pretty encouraging and suggesting "buy-the-dip" is still the best strategy. Immediate support is at the area of April's high, about 119.

Despite the better than expected April retail sales report, retail stocks were under pressure Tuesday amid a negative sentiment surrounding Wal-Mart's conservative guidance. Shares of the world's largest retailer lost 2.36% to $56.65. The S&P retail index lost 0.19% as a result.

Chart 1.2 S&P retail index (daily).

Prices broke down below the March's trend-line though held the 50-day moving average. This is not bad though the bulls don't really have any cases unless they manage to overcome the ten-month falling trend-line and last week's high, about 425. Immediate support is about 390. This, if violates, will increase the odds for a test of critical support at the area of March's low, about 362.

Speaking of retail, shares of Big Lots Inc (BIG) posted a health gain of 1.13% Tuesday.

Chart 1.3 Big Lots Inc (daily).

Initially profiled in our April 15 "Swing Trader Bulletin", shares of the closeout retailer has gained about 30% and remains well positioned. Technically speaking BIG remains strong but had rallied directly into the area of overhead resistance around the $29 level. This, if hurdle and sustain, will trigger an acceleration run that has the potential to push prices into the $31 level, then $35.60 afterward. On a long-term perspective, we're still bullish on BIG and expecting the stock to trend higher. Immediate support is at the area of the January's trend-line, now about $25.

Negative sentiment surrounding retail stocks dragged down the board market with the S&P 500 post a slight loss, about half a points or 0.04%.

Chart 1.4 S&P 500 index (daily).

Price continues basing sideway around support. The action is pretty encouraging from a technical point of view given number of negative headlines record high oil prices, Wal-Mart's disappointing guidance and Oppenheimer's bearish outlook on brokers. Though the one problem with Tuesday's trading was that volume actually picked up on down day. This had jeopardized Monday's impressive price gains and the well anticipate, big "200-day moving average" test. Right now, the most obvious level to watch is last Friday's low at 1384. This, if violates, will trigger a large-scale sell-off that has the potential to push prices into the area of the 50-day moving average, about 1350.

In summary: the market seems lost the positive momentum that was built on Monday. It could be ready to rollover and all it needs is a meaningful catalyst. Hopefully the April CPI a major inflation gauge which is scheduled to release Wednesday morning at 8:30am will do the trick. As noted above, keep an eye on S&P 1384. If we break this level, 1350 will show up in no time.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

大盤已經失去上攻動力

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Fri, 16 May 2008 13:11:00 PDT

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月14日(週三)的市場技術分析。

在昨天的市場前瞻中我們提到："週一的走勢是看漲的，預示著短期還會進一步走高。不過價格的強勁表現並沒有獲得量能的支持，這意味著接下來如果繼續反彈，應該被視為出貨的機會。"恰如我們所料，昨天出現一輪新的高位拋盤，大盤小幅低收。影響昨天股市的負面因素一是能源價格的繼續攀高，而是沃爾瑪 (WMT)發佈令人失望的業績目標。

昨天盤中原油期貨價格一度飆升至每桶126.50美元的歷史高點，收盤略有回調，收於125.80美元，漲幅1.57%。

圖1.1 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

目前油價繼續在高點附近盤整，並慢慢走出嚴重超買的局面。這一走勢非常有利，意味著"逢低買進"仍是上上策。緊鄰支撐位在4月高點區域，大約119美元。

儘管4月份零售業銷售報告好於預期，但是全球最大的零售商沃爾瑪公司保守的業績目標引發投資者的憂慮，昨天零售股遭遇賣壓。沃爾瑪股價下跌2.36%，收於56.65美元。標普零售指數低收0.19%。

圖1.2 標普零售指數(日線圖)

零售板塊在跌破3月份上升趨勢線之後在50日均線找到支撐，這一形態不算太差，不過除非指數能夠攻佔10個月下降趨勢線和上周高點的阻力(大約 425點)，否則不會有太好的行情。緊鄰支撐位大約在390點。如果該支撐失守，有可能會把價格推向3月低點的關鍵支撐位，大約362點。

零售股方面，昨天Big Lots(BIG)表現不錯，上漲1.13%。

圖1.3 Big Lots(日線圖)

自從我們最早在4月15日的Swing Trader Bulletin中對該清倉貨零售商的股票作出買入推薦以來，迄今股價已經上漲約30%，而且勢頭依然很好。技術形態方面，BIG動能依然很強，不過已經觸到29美元附近的上方阻力位。如果能夠有效突破這一阻力，激發的動能將使得價格加速衝向31美元的價位，然後是35.60美元。長期來看，我們繼續看漲 BIG。緊鄰支撐位在1月份開始的上升趨勢線附近，目前大約在25美元。

投資者對零售板塊的負面情緒也拖累了大盤，標普500小幅下挫約半個點，跌幅0.04%。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

價格依然在支撐附近橫向整理。考慮到消息面的幾大利空：油價創新高、沃爾瑪保守財測、Oppenheimer調降券商業績，昨天的走勢從技術上講是非常有利的。不過昨天的行情也有一個問題，那就是下跌實際上伴隨著量能的放大。這抵消了週一價格強勁上揚的正面影響，並危及到眾所期待且意義重大的對 200日線的測試。目前最需要關注的位置是上週五的低點，在1384點。如果這一支撐被擊穿，將觸發全線拋盤，並有可能將價格推低至50日均線的區域，大約1350點。

總結：市場似乎已經失去了週一集聚的上升動能，可能已經準備好掉頭向下，需要的只是一個大的利空消息的刺激。也許今天上午8點半發佈的CPI數據能夠起到這個催化劑的作用。正如上面提到的，請大家關注標普1384點的位置，一旦跌破，1350點近在咫尺。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Rally might not sustain

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Fri, 16 May 2008 13:09:01 PDT

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday May 13, 2008.

Stocks staged a recovery rally Monday with the Dow gained 130 points or 1.02% to finish at 12876. Contributed to the overall optimism was a falling energy price - U.S. light crude oil for June delivery fell $1.73 to settle at $124.23 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after settling at a record $125.96 per barrel on Friday. Energy stocks were under selling pressure as a result - the HOLDRS Oil Service ETF (OIH) lost 1.67% to close at $203.49.

Chart 1.1 HOLDRS Oil Service ETF (daily).

Monday's trading action was pretty consistent to the bearish case that we've offered in the previous Market Outlook: "the sector printed a potential bearish double top pattern on the daily chart. In addition, the MACD indicator is also trending below its signal line since late April. This is bearish and hence increased the odds for a retest of key support at the area of May's low, about 190. This, if violates, will complete the bearish double top pattern and hence indicates that the sector is in a midst of a medium-term correction cycle. A sustain decline below 201 will confirm this." While today trading action is bearish, we'll remain on the sideline until there's a sustain breakdown below the 201 level. Again, at this juncture, only a sustain breakout above this level can wreck the near-term bearish outlook. Key resistance is at the area of April 21^st high, about 210.60.

Despite the negative sentiment surrounding the energy stocks, shares of James River Coal Company (JRCC) added on to last week's massive gains, jumped more than 5% to $32.72.

Chart 1.2 - James River Coal Company (daily).

Initially profiled in March 26 "Swing trader Bulletin", shares of the coal producer has gained about 100% and remains well position. Actually, we really like the action over the past few days. Volume has picked up, as prices cut through key resistance at the area of 2005, 2006 lows (see chart). Technically, JRCC remains very strong, but has reached overbought level in all time frames a situation that precursor to a pullback consolidation period - so it wouldn't surprise us to see some backings and fillings in the days ahead. On a long-term perspective, however, we're still bullish on JRCC and expecting the stock to trend higher. Immediate support is at the area of April's high, about $26.75.

Financial stocks provided leadership in Monday's advance with the KBW bank index gained more than 2%.

Chart 1.3 - KBW bank index (daily).

As a matter of fact, today trading action had confirmed the validity of the "oversold rebound" scenario that we've traced out in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: "the short-term RSI indicator is indicated that the sector had reached an extreme oversold condition, so it wouldn't surprise us to see a technical rebound." Technically speaking, the ability to hold above the 50-day moving average is pretty encouraging (see chart) though the bulls will need to overcome the looming seven-month falling trend-line resistance in order to turn the medium-term trend up. That being said, until we see a sustain breakout above May 02^nd high at 88.67, the bears shall continue to have the benefit of the doubts. Critical support is at the area of March's low, about 75.

Strength in the financial sector had helped lifting the board market significantly higher with the S&P 500 gained about 15 points or 1.10% to 1403. Though trading volume was pretty disappointed.

Chart 1.4 S&P 500 index (daily).

The S&P held double supports at the March's trend-line and the April's bullish breakout point, about 1390. This is bullish and helped setting the stage for another test of the looming 200-day moving average, about 1430. This, if hurdle and sustain, will turn the long-term trend up though it's not expected tomorrow. Immediate support is about 1383. As mentioned, a failure to hold above this level will push prices directly into the area of key support at the 50-day moving average, about 1350.

In summary: Monday's trading action is bullish and suggesting further short-term gains. However, the trading volume didn't seem supporting the strong price action. And this is indicating that the upcoming rally, if and when it comes, should be considered as a selling opportunity.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

市場或借反彈出貨

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Fri, 16 May 2008 13:05:49 PDT

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月13日(週二)的市場技術分析。

昨天美股出現較大幅度反彈，道指上漲130點，收於12876點，漲幅1.02%。導致市場樂觀情緒的因素之一是能源價格的下跌，紐約商業交易所6 月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油期貨價格下跌1.73美元，收於每桶124.23美元，從上週五每桶125.96美元的歷史高位出現回調。受此影響，週一能源股遭遇賣壓，HOLDRS Oil Service ETF(OIH)下跌1.67%至203.49美元。

圖1.1 HOLDRS Oil Service ETF(日線圖)

OIH週一的走勢同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中作出的看跌判斷非常一致，我們當時寫道："該ETF在日線圖上形成了一個"雙頂"的雛形。另外， MACD指標自從4月底以來一直低於信號線。這都是看跌的信號，增加了價格重新測試3月低點關鍵支撐的可能性，大約190美元。如果這一支撐失守，將形成一個完整的"雙頂"形態，意味著板塊已經進入一輪中期回調走勢。如果價格有效跌破201美元，將對此作出確認。"昨天的走勢是看跌的，不過在價格有效跌破 201美元之前，我們暫時保持觀望。關鍵阻力位在4月21日高點區域，大約210.60美元。同樣，在目前形勢下，只有堅定突破這一位置，才能逆轉短期看跌的態勢。

儘管能源股遭遇利空，但是James River Coal Company(JRCC)股價在上周大漲的基礎上繼續飆升5%以上，收於32.72美元。

圖1.2 James River Coal Company(日線圖)

自從我們最早在3月26日的Swing trader Bulletin中對該煤炭股作出推薦以來，漲幅已經達到100%，而且仍有上行空間。事實上，過去幾個交易日的走勢非常有利，成交量放大，同時價格洞穿 2005和2006年低點的關鍵阻力位。從技術上講，JRCC動能依然十分強勁，不過無論從長中短期來看，目前都已經進入超買，因此未來數天很有可能會出現一波回調和整理行情。不過從長期來看，我們依然看好JRCC，預計它還將進一步攀高。緊鄰支撐位在4月高點區域，大約26.75美元。

週一金融股充當了領漲的角色，KBW銀行指數漲幅超過2%。

圖1.3 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

事實上，昨天銀行板塊的走勢印證了我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的"超賣反彈" 的判斷，我們當時提到："短期相對強弱指標(RSI)顯示板塊已經進入嚴重超賣的局面，因而我們預計未來數天可能先出現一波技術反彈。"從技術上講，指數能夠堅守在50日均線上方是十分有利的，不過多頭要想扭轉中期跌勢，還需要攻克上方7個月來下降趨勢線的強大阻力。總而言之，在指數有效突破5月2日高點 (88.67點)之前，空頭依然掌握著主導權。關鍵支撐位在3月低點區域，大約75點。

金融板塊的動能有力地推高了大盤，標普500指數上漲約15個點，收於1403點，漲幅1.10%。不過昨天大盤的成交量非常令人失望。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普在3月份開始的上升趨勢線和4月份向上突破位的雙重阻力處獲得承托。這是一個看漲信號，為指數再次測試1430點附近的200日線埋下了伏筆。如果指數能夠有效突破200日線，將使得長期趨勢轉跌為升，不過這一切不會在今天發生。緊鄰支撐位大約在1383點。正如我們提到的，如果指數跌破這一位置，將把價格直接推向50日均線的關鍵支撐區域，大約1350點。

總結：週一的走勢是看漲的，預示著短期還會進一步走高。不過價格的強勁表現並沒有獲得量能的支持，這意味著接下來如果繼續反彈，應該被視為出貨的機會。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Expect a continue weakness in equities

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Fri, 16 May 2008 13:01:41 PDT

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday May 12, 2008.

We've noted in the previous market outlook that: "the market had a change of character today - it held tough in the face of the bearish breakdown in the retail and financial sectors. This is a short-term plus for the bulls. However, the bleeding [in these two key sectors] has to stop right now; else we could be in for some serious selling in the days ahead." Stocks broke down Friday with the Dow losing more than 100 points, after AIG's (AIG) massive losses and write downs in its first quarter earnings report sparked fears of continuing credit woes. The KBW bank index lost 0.71% as a result.

Chart 1.1 - KBW bank index (daily).

As expected, the sector followed through to the downside Friday. While the action is bearish suggesting further weaknesses, the short-term RSI indicator is indicated that the sector had reached an extreme oversold condition, so it wouldn't surprise us to see a technical rebound follow by a panic selling in the days ahead. At this juncture, only a sustain advance above 90 can wreck the bearish outlook. Critical support at the area of March's low, about 75.

Also contributed to the overall weakness was a record high oil price - U.S. light crude oil for June delivery settled at a record $125.96 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after hitting a trading record of $126.20 earlier. Speaking of energy, shares of Fording Canadian Coal Trust (FDG) rose 2.71% to close at $71.59 - a new record high.

Chart 1.2 - Fording Canadian Coal Trust (daily).

Initially profiled on May 5 "Swing trader Bulletin", FDG has gained about 13% and remains well position. Technically speaking, Friday's break to the upside is very bullish and helped setting the stage for an acceleration run toward the key sentiment 75-80 level. In short, the near term out look remains bullish barring a close below last Monday's bullish breakout point, about $67.

Despite the rise in oil prices, the energy sector was a primary laggard throughout Friday trading session.

Chart 1.3 HOLDRS Oil Service ETF (daily).

The sector printed a potential bearish double top pattern on the daily chart. In addition, the MACD indicator is also trending below its signal line since late April. This is bearish and hence increased the odds for a retest of key support at the area of May's low, about 190. This, if violates, will complete the bearish double top pattern and hence indicates that the sector is in a midst of a medium-term correction cycle. A sustain decline below 201 will confirm this. Key resistance is at the area of April 21^st high, about 210.60. At this juncture, only a sustain breakout above this level can wreck the near-term bearish outlook.

Weaknesses in the financial and energy stocks dragged down the board market with the S&P 500 gave up about 9 points or 0.67% to finish at 1388.

Chart 1.4 S&P 500 index (daily).

Investors who hoped for a quick turnaround in the second half of the year found themselves disappointed last week. The S&P broke decisively below the important sentiment 1400 level, lost about 1.28% for the week. Although the trading action was not very encouraging, the medium-term uptrend is still intact at this point. As a matter of fact, the S&P is currently sitting at minor support at the area of May 01^st bullish breakout point. As mentioned, a failure to hold above the 1383 level will increase the probability for a test of key support at the area of the 50-day moving average, about 1350. This, if violated, will put an end to the recent seven-week rally. Key resistance is at the area of 200-day moving average, about 1430.

In summary: there's no getting around the fact that record high commodities prices are putting extreme pressure on the bullish case. Although the short-term chart is still showing that the bear won't have any cases until there's a close below S&P 1350. That being said, while we expect a continue weakness in equities, there's no clear technical evidence that suggests the bear-market rally that starts from March 17^th low has come to an end, at least at this point.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

大盤可能繼續走軟

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Fri, 16 May 2008 13:00:14 PDT

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月12日(週一)的市場技術分析。

我們在上週五的市場前瞻中提到："昨天大盤暫時收住了下滑的步伐，在零售和金融兩大板塊重跌的情況下巋然不動。這在短期內對多頭是有利的，不過兩大板塊的必須要停止下挫，否則會在接下來的交易日導致大盤出現強力拋售的局面。"上週五，美國國際集團(AIG)第一季財報出現巨額虧損和減記再次引發市場對信貸市場的擔憂，股市大幅下挫，道指下跌逾百點。KBW銀行指數下挫0.71%。

圖1.1 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

恰如我們所料，上週五銀行板塊繼續下挫。這一走勢是看跌的，意味著後市還將進一步下探，不過短期相對強弱指標(RSI)顯示板塊已經進入嚴重超賣的局面，因而我們預計未來數天可能先出現一波技術反彈，接著或許會有一輪恐慌性拋盤。在當前形勢下，指數只有堅定站上90點才有可能逆轉跌勢。關鍵支撐位在 3月低點區域，大約75點。

另一個利空因素是油價再創新高，上週五紐約商業交易所6月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油期貨價格收於每桶125.96美元的歷史新高，盤中曾上摸每桶126.20美元。能源股方面，Fording Canadian Coal Trust(FDG)上週五大漲2.71%，收於71.59美元的歷史新高。

圖1.2 Fording Canadian Coal Trust(日線圖)

自從我們在5月5日的Swing trader Bulletin中對FDG作出推薦以來，至今股價已經上漲約13%，而且仍有上行空間。從技術上講，上週五的突破走勢非常有利，為進一步加速上攻至75 -80美元的重要心理價位打下了基礎。總而言之，除非股價收盤跌破上週一的向上突破位(大約67美元)，否則近期依然看漲。

儘管油價上漲，但是上週五能源板塊卻成了一個領跌主力。

圖1.3 HOLDRS Oil Service ETF(日線圖)

該ETF在日線圖上形成了一個"雙頂"的雛形。另外，MACD指標自從4月底以來一直低於信號線。這都是看跌的信號，增加了價格重新測試3月低點關鍵支撐的可能性，大約190美元。如果這一支撐失守，將形成一個完整的"雙頂"形態，意味著板塊已經進入一輪中期回調走勢。如果價格有效跌破201美元，將對此作出確認。關鍵阻力位在4月21日高點區域，大約210.60美元。在當前形勢下，只有堅定突破這一支撐，才能逆轉近期看跌的態勢。

金融股和能源股的弱勢給大盤造成拖累，標普500指數下跌9個點至1388點，跌幅0.67%。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

對於那些希望股市在下半年轉暖的投資者而言，上周是令人失望的一周。標普果斷返回1400點心理關口下方，整周跌幅大約1.28%。儘管上周大盤表現不佳，不過就目前而言，中期上升趨勢依然完整。事實上，標普當前在5月1日向上突破的次要支撐區域獲得承托。我們曾提到，如果標普失守1383點，將增加向下測試50日均線關鍵支撐的可能性，大約1350點。如果指數進一步擊穿50日線，最近7周來的漲勢將宣告終結。關鍵阻力位在200日線區域，大約 1430點。

總結：毫無疑問，最近商品價格屢創新高給大盤的上攻帶來巨大壓力。不過從短期圖形來看，只要標普不收於1350 點下方，空頭並沒有太大機會。總而言之，短期內股市可能進一步走低，不過至少從目前來看，並沒有明確的技術理由顯示從3月17日低點開始的這輪熊市反彈行情已經走到盡頭。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

A change of character

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Fri, 09 May 2008 13:10:38 PDT

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday May 09, 2008.

Stocks closed slightly higher Thursday with the Dow Jones industrial average gained about 52 points or 0.41%. Contributed to the early strength was a better-than-expected April retail sales, but the gains were limited by record-high oil prices - U.S. light crude oil for June delivery rose 16 cents to settle at a record $123.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange - and bad news surrounding the financial stocks.

Gold also attracted some buyers Thursday with COMEX gold for June delivery rose $11.10 to $882.30 an ounce, its highest close this month. Speaking of gold, shares of Yamana Gold (AUY) jumped 6.69% Thursday on heavy volume after the company reported earnings results that beat the Street's expectation.

Chart 1.1 - Yamana Gold Inc (daily).

Initially profiled on May 02 "Swing trader Bulletin", AUY gains more than 13% and remains well position. Thursday's bullish breakout had helped setting the stage for a test of key resistance at the area of April's high, about $15.44. This, if hurdle and sustain, will trigger all sorts of stop and hence, has the potential to propel prices into the 17-20 area. In short, the near term outlook remains positive barring a close below Tuesday's low at $13.46.

Despite the positive sales data from a number of key retailers, the S&P retail index dropped 1.68% - a two-week low.

Chart 1.2 - S&P retail index (daily).

Plunged below the March trend-line after the test of resistance at the area of the 10-month falling trend-line was met with an aggressive wave of selling interest. This is bearish and suggesting a test of critical support at the area of March's low, about 364. However, the sector is pretty much oversold on a short-term basis, so it wouldn't surprise us to see some sorts of technical rebound before price start to roll over again. At this juncture, only a sustain advance above last week's high at 425.07 can turn the short-term trend up.

Some investors continue to hope that the financial mess is over, and they continue to see themselves disappointed. Financial stocks were also down noticeably in Thursday's trading session with the KBW bank index lost 1.51% to 81.64. Large-cap stocks like Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC) and AIG (AIG) were the primary laggards.

Chart 1.3 - KBW bank index (daily).

Yesterday we wrote that: "the index printed an ugly bearish reversal pattern on the daily chart this is very bearish and suggesting a retest of critical support at the area of March's low, about 75. Right now, follow through is the key. Our instinct tells us that if the bears can successfully take out last Thursday's low, about 82.70, then we could see 75 before you can blink." It broke both of last week's low and the April trend-line support today. In addition, the MACD indicator is also breaking down as well. This is very bearish and confirms a retest of critical support at the area of March's low, about 75. In short, today's trading actions can be interpreted as very bearish and suggesting further weaknesses in the days ahead. At this juncture, only a sustain advance above last Friday's high at 88.67 can wreck the bearish outlook.

Strength in the material and energy sectors provided the market a nice lift. The S&P 500 gained about 5 points or 0.37% to 1397.

Chart 1.4 S&P 500 index (daily).

The index is back below the important sentiment 1400 level though it manages to hold above the 20-day moving average. This is a short-term plus for the bull. In addition, the short-term RSI indicator is also fast approaching the oversold level. So, it wouldn't surprise us to see some sorts of consolidation before another selling stampede starts. As mentioned, keep a close eye on last Thursday's low at 1383 because once we break this level, 1350 will show up in no time.

In summary: the market had a change of character today - it held tough in the face of the bearish breakdown in the retail and financial sectors. This is a short-term plus for the bulls. However, the bleeding [in these two key sectors] has to stop right now; else we could be in for some serious selling in the days ahead.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

大盤或深跌前暫時企穩

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Fri, 09 May 2008 13:09:00 PDT

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月9日(週五)的市場技術分析。

週四美股小幅高收，道瓊斯工業平均指數走高大約52點，漲幅0.41%。拉動昨天大盤的利好消息是4月份零售數字超出市場預期，不利因素則主要是油價創新高和來自金融股的負面消息。昨天紐約商業交易所6月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油期貨價格上漲16美分，收於每桶123.69美元的歷史新高。

昨天黃金同樣迎來買盤，紐約商品交易所6月份交割的黃金期貨價格上漲11.10美元，收於每盎司882.30美元，為本月來最高。在黃金個股方面，多倫多的黃金生產商Yamana Gold(AUY)公佈超預期季度盈利之後，昨天股價放量大漲6.69%。

圖1.1 Yamana Gold(日線圖)

我們最早在5月2日的Swing trader Bulletin中對該股作出了買入推薦，至今漲幅已經超過13%，而且還有上漲空間。週四的突破走勢使得股價準備好向4月高點的關鍵阻力區域作出測試，大約15.44美元。如果順利突破這一阻力，將觸發各種止損，從而有可能將股價送往17-20美元的區域。總而言之，除非股價收盤跌破週四低點 (13.46美元)，否則近期走勢依然看漲。

儘管幾大主要零售商均公佈了不錯的銷售數字，但昨天標普零售指數還是跌入兩周來低點，當日跌幅1.68%。

圖1.2 標普零售指數(日線圖)

零售指數在測試10個月下降趨勢線阻力的時候遭遇強勁拋盤，價格已經大幅擊穿前兩個月的上升趨勢線。這是一個看跌跡象，意味著指數可能進一步測試3 月低點的關鍵支撐，大約364點。不過從短期來看，該板塊已經嚴重超賣，因此在價格進一步下挫之前出現一波技術反彈行情是十分正常的。在當前形勢下，價格只有有效站上425.07點的上周高點，才能將短期趨勢轉跌為升。

最近部分投資者一直希望金融市場走出混亂局面，但一再感到失望。週四金融股大幅下挫，KBW銀行指數下跌1.51%，收於81.64點。高盛(GS)、美銀(BAC)、美國國際集團(AIG)等金融龍頭股充當了領跌的角色。

圖1.3 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

在昨天的評論中我們寫道："指數在日線圖上收出一根非常不利的反轉燭線。這一走勢是嚴重看跌的，意味著指數將重新測試3月低點區域的關鍵支撐，大約在75點。目前，跌勢很難遏制，直覺告訴我們，如果空頭能夠輕鬆拿下上週四低點(大約82.70點)，見75點不過是一眨眼的工夫。"昨天指數同時跌破上周低點和4月上升趨勢線的支撐。另外 MACD指標也即將出現"死叉"，這是非常不利的信號，確認了重新測試3月低點關鍵支撐位的走勢，大約在75點。總而言之，昨天的行情對後市非常不利，接下來還有進一步深跌。在當前形勢下，指數只有有效站上上週五高點(88.67點)才能逆轉看跌的態勢。

原材料和能源板塊的強勢也有力地拉升了大盤，標普500上漲大約5個點至1397點，漲幅0.37%。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普已經返回了1400點的重要心理關口下方，不過仍堅守在20日均線之上。短期內20日線是一個承托，況且短期相對強弱指標(RSI)也在快速接近超賣區域，因此在指數再度遭遇瘋狂拋售之前，應該會出現一定的整理行情。我們提到過，現在應該密切關注1383點的上週四低點，因為一旦這一位置失守，指數將迅速滑向1350點。

總結：昨天大盤暫時收住了下滑的步伐，在零售和金融兩大板塊重跌的情況下巋然不動。這在短期內對多頭是有利的，不過兩大板塊的必須要停止下挫，否則會在接下來的交易日導致大盤出現強力拋售的局面。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Market seems poised for a test of 50-day moving average

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Thu, 08 May 2008 10:47:09 PDT

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday May 08, 2008.

Stocks stumble out of gate Wednesday with the Dow lost over 200 points. Contributed to the overall weakness was another record high energy prices - crude oil spiked to a record $123 a barrel. This is very bad for stocks because the higher energy prices means higher inflation and as we've already mentioned, the Street was very concern, or nervous, about inflation and the effect it is having on corporate profits and consumer spending. As a matter of fact, Wednesday's trading action had confirmed the validity of the "larger-cycle pullback consolidation" scenario that we've traced out right here in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: "while Tuesday's trading action is bullish, the trading volume suggested that the rally will not sustain. In addition, with the VIX hovering at the low-end of its six-month trading range, the odds for a larger-cycle pullback consolidation had also increased."

Despite the overall weakness, James River Coal Company (JRCC) added on to recent gains, jumped about 8% to $30.88 on heavy volume. This brings the weekly gains to about 7 points or 28%, so far.

Chart 1.1 - James River Coal Company (daily).

Shares of the coal producer gains about 90% since profiled in our March 26 "Swing trader Bulletin" and done so on technical confirmation volume expands as price climbs. This is the very bullish. Though not only that the stock seems to be overextended at the moment it has also rallied directly into key resistance at the area of 2005 and 2006 lows. So it wouldn't surprise us too see some backings and fillings in the days ahead. On a long-term perspective, however, we're still bullish on JRCC and expecting the stock to trend higher.

Wednesday's sell-off was pretty much board base that saw all ten of the major economic sectors close with losses. And as it was the case since last October, financials got hit hard the KBW bank index dropped 3.54% for the day.

Chart 1.2 - KBW bank index (daily).

The index printed an ugly bearish reversal pattern on the daily chart after a test of key resistance at the area of seven-month falling trend-line was met with an aggressive wave of selling interest. The action is very bearish and suggesting a retest of critical support at the area of March's low, about 75. Right now, follow through is the key. Our instinct tells us that if the bears can successfully take out last Thursday's low, about 82.70, then we could see 75 before you can blink. Immediate resistance is about 90.

As goes the bank so goes the tape. Weakness in the financial stocks especially in large-cap names like Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Bank of America (BAC) all down about 3% to 5%, weighed on the board market with the S&P lost roughly 26 points or 1.8% to finish at 1392.

Chart 1.3 S&P 500 index (daily).

Yesterday we said that: "while Tuesday's trading action is bullish, the trading volume remains disappointed. It has been light since we broke out in April. This is not very encouraging and suggesting that the rally might not sustain." The market broke down Wednesday. The action's, in fact, very consistent to the "fake-out" scenario: "a break above key resistance at the area of November's low, about 1406, and back below it" - that we've offered a couple days ago.

The market had a change of character today. Lately, trading volume has been very light as prices climb though today they went in opposite direction. The most significant part of the day was to see that trading volume had finally picked up as prices dropped. And yes, this is the most bearish relationship under the sun. It seems to us that the market is poised for a test of key support at the area of 50-day moving average. As usual, follow through is the key. A sustain decline below last Thursday's low at 1383 will confirm this. Key resistance is at the area of 200-day moving average, about 1435.

In summary: no need to sugar coating, Wednesday's trading action is outright bearish. Although, as noted above, the market can drop all the way to the 50-day moving average and still be in an uptrend. That being said, there is a pretty good chance that the bulls will put up a fight at this important sentiment level. So expect volatility to pickup in the days ahead.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

大盤很快將測試50日線

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Thu, 08 May 2008 10:45:41 PDT

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月8日(週四)的市場技術分析。

昨天美股開盤下挫，道指收盤大跌200多點。導致昨天大盤走低的原因之一是能源價格繼續飆升，原油再創新高，收於每桶123美元以上。能源漲價對股市是非常不利的，正如我們曾提到的，目前華爾街最擔心的一個問題便是通脹，能源漲價勢必給企業盈利和消費者支出造成損害。事實上，昨天大盤的走勢同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的"大幅回調"的判斷非常吻合，我們當時提到："儘管週二的走勢是看漲的，但是量能低迷意味著漲勢難以持續。另外，VIX跌至6 個月運行區間的最低點，這意味著很可能會爆發一輪更大幅度的回調。"

儘管大盤大幅走低，但是昨天James River Coal Company(JRCC)在近期強勢攀高的基礎上繼續逆市放量大漲，漲幅大約8%，收於30.88美元。這樣到目前為止，該股周漲幅在7個點左右，漲幅28%。

圖1.1 James River Coal Company(日線圖)

自從我們在3月26日的Swing trader Bulletin對該煤炭股作出推薦以來，股價漲幅已經高達90%左右，而且上漲一直伴隨著量能的放大，這是非常有利的。不過目前該股上漲空間已經被大幅壓縮，而且已經快速逼近2005年和2006年低點區域的關鍵阻力，因此未來數天出現一輪迴調整固走勢是不足為奇的。從長期來看，我們依然看漲JRCC，預計還將進一步走高。

週三的拋盤是大面積的，所有十大板塊全部出現回調。其中金融股再現去年10月來反覆出現的重跌局面，KBW銀行指數暴跌3.54%。

圖1.2 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

昨天銀行指數在測試過去7個月下降趨勢線阻力的時候迎來強勁賣壓，在日線圖上收出一根非常不利的反轉燭線。這一走勢是嚴重看跌的，意味著指數將重新測試3月低點區域的關鍵支撐，大約在75點。目前，跌勢很難遏制，直覺告訴我們，如果空頭能夠輕鬆拿下上週四低點(大約82.70點)，見75點不過是一眨眼的工夫。緊鄰阻力位大約在90點。

俗話說，銀行往東，大盤不往西。金融股的重跌，尤其是花旗(C)、JP摩根大通(JPM)、美銀(BAC)等金融龍頭股全部下跌3%-5%，給大盤造成嚴重拖累，標普大約下跌26點，收於1392點，跌幅1.8%。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

昨天我們提到："週二的走勢非常不錯，不過成交量繼續低迷。自從4月份突破以來，成交一直不活躍。這一現象不太好，意味著這一波反彈可能到頭了。"結果昨天大盤果然大幅下挫。事實上這一走勢同我們數天前提出的"假突破" 的判斷如合符節，我們當時提到："標普有可能在短暫突破1406點的11月低點關鍵阻力之後，再次跌回阻力下方。"昨天市場特徵有一個重要變化。在大盤最近的反彈行情中，成交量一直不足，但是昨天價量均出現反向變化，在價格下跌的時候，量能最終出現攀升。放量下跌，這對股市是最為不利的。因此我們預計大盤很快將測試50日均線的關鍵支撐。如果標普有效跌破上週四低點(1383 點)，將對此作出確認。關鍵阻力位在200日均線區域，大約1435點。

總結：毋庸諱言，週三大盤的走勢堪稱糟糕透頂。不過正如上面提到的，大盤可能一路跌向50日均線，暫時還不會改變中期上升趨勢。因此，在這樣一個重要的心理位置，多空雙方很可能將展開一番激烈的爭奪，預計未來數天大盤會加劇震盪。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

The odds for a larger-cycle pullback consolidation had increased

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Wed, 07 May 2008 11:53:18 PDT

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday May 07, 2008.

As expected, stocks opened on a negative tone Tuesday that saw the Dow lost more than 100 points in early trading. Contributed to the early weaknesses were another record high energy prices - crude oil spiked to a record $122.35 a barrel - and Fannie Mae's (FNM) big quarterly loss, still the stock rallied 8.91%. Speaking of energy, shares of James River Coal Company (JRCC) a subject of our previous bullish discussion - jumped more than 10% in a face of yesterday's 8% gains to $28.68, a new multi-year high. Just so that you know, shares of the coal producer gains more than 73% since featured in our March 26 "Swing trader Bulletin". Apparently, coal stocks are doing pretty well lately. Shares of Fording Canadian Coal (FDG) also jumped 4.43% today or about 10% after profiled in our "Swing trader Bulletin" 2 days ago.

Market, however, stabilized by midday and moved higher as traders are betting that the U.S. economy will improve in the second half. This is, of course, a very bold guess though today trading is indicative that this group of traders is willing to put the money where their mouth is. And this is very positive.

Chart 1.1 CBOE Volatility Index (daily).

General speaking, VIX values greater than 30 are generally associated with a large amount of volatility as a result of investor fear or uncertainty, while values below 20 generally correspond to less stressful, even complacent, times in the markets. Now with the VIX, or a fear indicator, is sitting at its lowest levels since October, it seems to us that traders are getting more comfortable with taking on more risks. And this, from a contrarian point of view, is bearish for the board market.

Buying interest in the energy and financial sectors provided the market a strong lift, the S&P rebounding from a 0.7% loss to finish the day with a 0.7% gain.

Chart 1.2 S&P 500 index (daily).

The index rose above last week's closing high after a test of support at the area of 10-day moving average was met with an aggressive wave of buying interest. This is bullish and helped setting the stage for an important test of key resistance at the area of 200-day moving average. Trading volume, however, remains disappointed. It has been light since we broke out in April. This is not very encouraging and suggesting that the rally might not sustain. Immediate support is at the area of last Thursday's low, about 1383. This, if violates, will trigger a large scale sell-off that has the potential to push prices into the 1350-1325 area. Key resistance is at the area of 200-day moving average, about 1435.

In summary: this is a very interesting and important day. There were a lot of reasons to sell, however, the market pulled off a rally. This action is bullish. However, until we see a pickup in trading volume, it's believed that the rally will not sustain. In addition, with the VIX hovering at the low-end of its six-month trading range, the odds for a larger-cycle pullback consolidation had also increased.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

美股或大幅回調

noreply@blogger.com (Admin) — Wed, 07 May 2008 11:51:27 PDT

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月7日(週三)的市場技術分析。

恰如我們所料，昨天美股低開高走，道指早盤一度下跌超過100點。導致昨天早盤走軟的因素有兩個，一個是油價再創新高，原油一度飆升至每桶 122.35美元的新高，另一個則是房利美(FNM)報告季度巨額虧損，不過公司股價反倒大漲8.91%。能源股方面，我們最近作出看漲評論的James River Coal Company(JRCC)在前天大漲8%的基礎上，昨天繼續飆升10%以上，收於28.68美元的多年來新高。這樣，自從我們在3月26日的Swing trader Bulletin中對該煤業公司股票作出推薦以來，漲幅已經超過73%。很明顯，最近煤礦股表現非常不錯。昨天Fording Canadian Coal(FDG)同樣大漲4.43%，這樣我們在3天前的Swing trader Bulletin中作出買入推薦後漲幅約為10%。

儘管開盤下跌，午盤市場成功企穩並不斷攀高，原因是投資者普遍認為美國經濟在下半年將有所回暖。儘管這一猜測有些過於大膽，不過仍是一個非常有利的信號，說明市場信心在恢復。

圖1.1 芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數(日線圖)

波動率指數(VIX)是衡量投資者情緒的一個指標。一般來說，波動率指數高於30通常意味著投資者恐慌或很高的不確定性，說明市場可能急劇波動，而如果指數低於20，則意味著市場處於相對平穩、壓力較小的階段。目前VIX已經跌入去年10月以來的最低水平，說明投資者的風險偏好程度比較高。這一點，從反向操作的角度來看，是一個大盤看跌的信號。

能源股和金融股的買盤有力拉升了大盤，標普開始下跌0.7%，收盤反而上漲0.7%。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普在測試10日均線支撐時迎來大量買盤，收於上周最高收盤點位之上。這是一個看漲信號，下一步將測試200日均線的關鍵阻力位。不過成交量依然比較低迷，這是一個不太有利的跡象，意味著漲勢可能難以持續。緊鄰支撐位在上週四的低點，大約1383點。如果這一位置如果被擊穿，將激發大量拋盤，從而可能將指數推向1350-1325點的區間。關鍵阻力位在200日均線，大約1435點。

總結：昨天的行情非常有意思，也是很重要的一個交易日。儘管有很多的出貨理由，市場還是成功拉升。這是看漲的。不過，如果量能繼續低迷的話，這一輪漲勢恐怕難以為繼。另外，VIX跌至6個月運行區間的最低點，這意味著很可能會爆發一輪更大幅度的回調。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團

Did you Block me?

A further prices weakness is likely

大盤或進一步走低

Turnaround Tuesday

美股今日將轉跌

美股今日將轉跌

The rally is now getting heavy

大盤上行動能不足

Another week, another victory

S&P seems poised for an upward push above the 200-day moving average

標普準備上攻200日線

The stage had been set for a test of weeklys low

大盤將測試一周低點

Market had lost the positive momentum

大盤已經失去上攻動力

Rally might not sustain

市場或借反彈出貨

Expect a continue weakness in equities

大盤可能繼續走軟

A change of character

大盤或深跌前暫時企穩

Market seems poised for a test of 50-day moving average

大盤很快將測試50日線

The odds for a larger-cycle pullback consolidation had increased

美股或大幅回調

The stage had been set for a test of weeklys low