Depending on the capitalization, the term “Fiat/fiat” can mean many things.

In Latin, “fiat” is a commandment from on high meaning “it shall be”. It’s also what Zeus yells before triumphantly flushing the toilet.

Some people cheekily call their Ferraris “Fiat”. Others think of “Fix It Again Tony”, in reference to the repair shop regulars from the 1970’s.

When a lowercase “f” is used, the economically-minded among us think of currency.

Starting with the US Dollar in 1971, the world’s currencies left the gold standard and began comparing their currencies to USD, thereby becoming “fiat” currencies.

Lowercase “f” fiat currency is money that derives its value from government regulation or law, rather than being based on gold or silver. Today, Dollars, Euros, Pesos and the rest of ‘em all work this way. Essentially, they’re just colourful pieces of paper.

So what is currency good for?

Our country’s currencies embodies the means by which we pursue our interests, pay our taxes, and are remunerated for our work. As history has repeatedly shown, currency is also the way that nations repay their war debts.

After several pricey wars with King Louis XIV’s France, King William III of England was more broke than General Motors. As a result,

In 1694, a consortium of English bankers made a loan of £1,200,000 to the king. In return they received a royal monopoly on the issuance of banknotes. What this meant in practice was they had the right to advance IOUs for a portion of the money the king now owed them to any inhabitant of the kingdom willing to borrow from them, or willing to deposit their own money in the bank-in effect, to circulate or ‘monetize’ the newly created royal debt. This was a great deal for the bankers (they got to charge the king 8 percent annual interest for the original loan and simultaneously charge interest on the same money to the clients who borrowed it), but it only worked as long as the original loan remained outstanding. To this day, this loan has never been paid back.

For more currency history, see David Graeber’s Debt: The First 5000 Years for a longer-term lens and James Rickard’s Currency Wars for a 20th century focus.

Today, the fiat experiment that began with Nixon in 1971 is drawing to a close.

As you read this, the USD is being driven into the ground. Money printing presses are working overtime, interest rates can’t get lower, and easy credit is once again ballooning stats to show growth where none exists. Under an Everest of debt, the fiat that started it all, the Mighty USD, is breathing its dying breaths.

The Nation’s Thanong Khanthong puts it best:

Money printing will lead to runaway inflation and eventually hyperinflation. When the timing is ripe, the BRICS countries [Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa] will rely on gold reserves to back up their currencies. Other fiat currencies without hard-asset backup aren’t likely to gain the trust of investors or ordinary holders.

What will save the USD? Nothing. What will replace it? Probably gold.

But gold isn’t the only answer that can solve the currency riddle. Another solution, and one that’s grabbed a considerable amount of media interest of late, is Bitcoin.

My personal love affair with Bitcoin started with Minyanville’s SEOtastic April 4th article. I might never forget that day.

Since then, I’ve barely slept – such is my feverish curiosity in this revolutionary new idea. I’ve never been so excited about anything. in. my. life.

It’s a store of value, medium of trade, and an inspiring vision of the New Economy. It’s also aligns philosophically as it sways power away from nations and towards anyone with an internet connection. Bitcoin is less like fiat and more like a commodity, with a steady mining rate that currently stands at 25 Bitcoins every 10 minutes. So it can’t be printed into existence and transactions costs are less than one tenth of credit cards and PayPal. What’s not to like?

[For more background, check out my newly launched website, Bitconomy.ca. I'm afraid that CarEnvy.ca updates will be even less frequent as a result of this new pursuit. But I love cars too much to give up on you!]

Which brings me to my new car!

While the Bitcoin Sledgehammer was rocking my skull, I found myself at Derrick Fiat, not a little bit because of their social media presence. Yes, SM matters!

There, I found a Bianco Fiat 500 Sport with no sunroof and automatic transmission. Perfetta per la città! After an amazingly fluid and civilized transaction, I drove home the Protege5-replacement I’ve been eyeing since I first drove the 500 in January of last year. The 2012 model I took home was only a set of Bose speakers away from perfect. EVERY other factor – colour of steering wheel, seating material, price, mileage, and trust in seller – were unimpeachable.

Despite the Bitcoin-induced daze, I still saved C$10,000 versus the cost of a 2013. That’s a lot of Fiat for my fiat! I crack me up…

So whatever “Fiat/fiat” makes you think of, I’ll forever link it with April 2013: when I bought my newest (and cutest) car to date and had my world utterly rocked by a mysterious coin.

It’s only appropriate that I call my new car “Lira” , for the Italian currency that the Euro replaced in 2002.

In 1972, President Nixon, famously quipped:

I don’t give a shit about the Lira!

Maybe he would’ve given a shit about Bitcoin. I know I do.

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By Peter Dushenski

In 7 short days, the 2013 Formula 1 season begins in Melbourne with the Australian Grand Prix!

Last year, your author watched more than half the races, many of them live at completely obscene hours of the morning. So if you’re looking for a devoted perspective, you’ve come to the right place. It’s easier for our European friends to watch F1 races live, but the TV schedule is rather more challenging for us igloo-dwellers 8 time zones away!

While we followed F1 more closely than ever before in 2012, most of our thoughts on the matter were published on Twitter. Only Jenson Button’s cries for a RHENOCÉROUS were loud enough to prompt an article on these pages. Interestingly, that article was more prescient than most, as Button’s boys at McLaren have followed Ferrari’s pull-rod (i.e. “rhino-faced”) front suspension design for the 2013 season, the only other team to do so. We already knew Jenson was quite the hobbyist, running marathons in sub-3hrs, but who knew he was such a lobbyist too!

Since you already know CarEnvy doesn’t make predictions, let’s kick off the 2013 season with a few Hip-Hip-Hoorays!

Here are 5 things worth cheering for in 2013!

In at #5: Williams F1!
New followers of the sport will naturally begin by cheering for big teams like Ferrari, McLaren, and Red Bull. We certainly did. As the F1 Mental Infection spreads, as it inevitably does, one finds depth in the 2nd tier teams like Sauber, Force India, and Williams. This is fun! If you find yourself cheering for Marussia over Caterham, however, our condolences go out to your family…

Of today’s 2nd tier teams, Williams stands apart. After watching a documentary ostensibly about the Secret Life of Formula 1, yet sharply focused on the team that Sir Frank Williams built, we’re finding it hard not to cheer for the tenacious ingenuity that has characterized the team. Those who are even newer to the sport than we are may be surprised to learn that Williams was once not just competitive but utterly dominant! They won an astonishing 9 Constructor’s titles between 1980-1997 and their revolutionary FW14 car from 1992, with its cutting edge Adrian Newey design, semi-auto gearbox, active suspension, traction control, and ABS, was so monstrously successful that Nigel Mansell wrapped up the Driver’s Championship in it after only 11 of 16 races!

Today, Williams F1 continues to push the envelope in unexpected ways. On top of a never-ending stream of technical innovations, Williams is currently the only team to employ a female driver: Development Driver Susie Wolff. No word on whether she’s helping the team develop exquisite knobs, though we certainly hope she is!

In at #4:  Kimi!
The creamy cold dessert is called Eiskrem in Germany, gelato in Italy, sorvete in Brazil, and ice cream in Canada. No matter what you call it, followers of Formula 1 associate the irresistable frosty goodness with one man: Kimi Räikkönen. After a two-year absence from the sport, the 2007 World Champion joined the reinvigorated Lotus-Renault F1 team last season and finished the year an impressive 3rd in the Driver Standings.

His visible distaste for the corporate-fueled politics and hypetacular machinations of F1 stand him apart from every other driver in the field. While some drivers are given the boot because they can’t raise enough sponsor dollars, the Finn can be found eating jäätelö and dreaming of pole positions in the back of his tour bus. How can you not cheer for the guy?

In at #3: Belgium
The best race of 2012, for your author certainly, was the Belgian GP. Held at the undulating and majestic Spa-Francorchamps, the 77th running was more riveting than any other by far! After a 5-week summer break, F1 fans need their scratch itched in the worst way, and Spa delivered in spades last year.

Grosjean almost decapitated Alonso, perenial pole-sitter Vettel crawled from 10th on the grid to finish 2nd, fan favourite Jenson Button won from pole, Schumacher competed in his 300th race and final Belgian GP, Hamilton crashed into Kobayashi, and our man Kimi made the pass of the season on Schumacher at the steeply inclined Eau Rouge!

The Belgian GP was already our favourite race on the F1 Calendar but now it’s on our bucket list! Here’s hoping that 2013 is everything we hope it will be!

In at #2: NBC!
After a great many years on the SPEED network in the US, Formula 1 is going mainstream with the NBC network. Following last year’s ground-shaking TV move in the UK, from crown-bearing BBC to publicly-traded Sky, North Americans are about to be similarly stirred.

Most agree that the move will be a very good thing. As someone who has long enjoyed NBC’s golf coverage, your author has high hopes that NBC will meld its technological expertise with the familiar and wonderful hosts the network has stolen from SPEED. Steve Matchett in particular, who completely impressed in his March 5 podcast with Formula1Blog, is most a welcome holdover.

For even more F1 coverage between races, follow along with me on my F1 Twitter List, which includes the finest collection of analysts and teams available anywhere. Look around if you don’t believe me!

In at #1: Aerodynamics!
The flow of air in and around the F1 car is the name of the game this season, much as it was last year. With engine development on pause, Pirelli taking care of tires, and drivers being drivers, aero is the primary focus of every team’s resources for 2013. As such, the already complex cars are becoming more nuanced, more alien, and more artistic with every passing day of testing. It’s heating up!

Some of these developments will help make the cars faster, improving passing and therefore our entertainment. Other developments will inform the automotive engineering world at large – teaching the scientists and designers who build our road cars about aerodynamic efficiency.

Eventually, this will benefit us all, especially if our next car gets 261mpg, like the milestone Volkswagen XL1 announced earlier this week at the Geneva Motor Show. If F1 is the forefront of prototyping, then XL1, with its iPhone mirrors and crank windows, is the forefront of limited-production (only 250 units produced). Slowly but surely, F1 technology and knowledge trickles down from one level to the next, ultimately ending up in our garages. We all win!

Looking ahead to the 2014 season and its 1.6L turbo-hybrid engines, aerodynamics won’t be the sole focus of the sport’s attention for much longer, so let’s cheer for all the air-channeling advancement we can get!

Conclusion!

What’s wildly appealing, to your author at least, about F1 this season is not just how insane today’s cars are, but how pedestrian they’ll look in 50 years. Looking at a 1963 Ferrari 156 F1 Aero (so named for its 1.5L, 6-cylinder engine), it’s stunning how far the aerodynamic design has progressed. Applying a similarly sized leap forward, it’s hard not to be mind-boggled at what a 2063 F1 car might look like! The span of personalities, nations, and legal loopholes only add to the intrigue of the highest level of open-cockpit racing.

CarEnvy isn’t making any predictions about who will win this year because predicting is insane. Cheering, on the other hand, is fun! The Williams, Belgium, Kimi, NBC, and Aerodynamics stories will continue to unfold over the next 9 months and we’ll be following along as closely as work, wedding plans, and philosophical journeys allow.

This season, we’ll be trying to watch even more races, delve deeper into the technical developments, and broaden our understanding of this uniquely relevant and global sport.

One more thing: If you haven’t already, join the F1 conversation on Twitter! Talk to you soon!

[Image credits: f1.imgci, crazyleo.net, Getty, Jalopnik, ScarbsF1.com, pilsbierbude.de]

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By Peter Dushenski

Is it sexist to think that a woman designed this?

On second thought, it’s probably just reverse-sexism. I hope compliments count towards reparations…

Nonetheless, what could only have been a very smart, careful, and ingenious woman at GM has done what Steve Jobs did with the music player – borrowed a bunch of other people’s good ideas and brought them together into an elegant and user-friendly form. The result is not only lovingly crafted but is also the best upgrade to the facelifted 2013 Buick Enclave, GMC Acadia, and Chevy Traverse. If you’ve driven these triplets, you’ll find the refreshed to be remarkably familiar, with the exceptional exception of 3 very expensive knobs.

This isn’t faint praise. It’s more like reverse-faint-praise.

Here’s why:

The control of a car’s interior climate is perhaps the single most important non-safety-related interaction with your vehicle. In the old days, in the absence of air contioning and frequently in the absence of effective heating systems, the openable window regulated the body temperatures of the occupants of enclosed motor vehicles. This certainly put a lot of pressure on the design of crank handles to provide adequate leverage, a properly sized grip, and convenient access. Today, with standard electric windows, reliable heating systems, prevalent air conditioning, and even seat heating and cooling, the accuracy, precision, and feedback from the buttons or knobs controlling the cabin’s HVAC system are under pressure like never before. Only the forgone crank handles – now relegated to rolling classics, basic used cars, and scrap yards – know the plight of modern climate controls.

Peruse a few new car dealerships and you’ll be able to count the number of cars and trucks with rotating climate control knobs on one hand. You won’t find a single slider. The vast majority of what’s available has either 2 or 4 temperature buttons, depending on whether the car has single- or dual-zone climate control, and another 2 buttons for fan speed. As millions of people have discovered first-hand, these buttons take your eyes off the road, take longer to adjust, and require repetitive taps that are as inelegant as they are unnecessarily precise.

Buttons were first installed to provide greater control to the occupants, or so the thinking went. No longer would driver and passenger have to suffer the indignity of just being “Hot”, “Cold” or at some nebulous point in between. Buttons were seen as a rational solution to imprecise sliders and knobs because they provided maximum precision, often to the nearest 0.5C. The only problem, as millions of newer vehicle owners are finding out for themselves, is that people aren’t rational. Ultimately, we don’t want the ultimate in precision if it comes at the cost of the simplicity, speed, and convenience.

Today, finding rotating controls for a car’s HVAC system is a quiet glory. General Motors is catching on to this fact – particularly within the Buick line-up – as shown on the dashes of the new Verano (reviewed here), Regal (reviewed here), and upcoming 2014 Encore micro-crossover (a vehicle I’m strangely looking forward to). Chevrolet and GMC are also on the road to ergonomic enlightenment but The General is taking Cadillac on a path of “high-end” tap-tappery. Good thing most of us can’t afford Cadillacs.

All of which brings us back to the most magnificent pair of knobs… in the world. Combining the ease of a knob and the rationalism of an accurate temperature readout, the 2013 Enclave, Acadia, and Traverse have transcended the disparate worlds of our human sensibilities and our mechanistic desires. The broad range of 16-31C is controlled by a gently studded rubber ring (you would read into that). Easy-to-read, falling easily to the right hand of the driver, and requiring the lightest of efforts, these climate control knobs are simply sublime.

This simplest of joys brought more smiles to my face than any other aspect of the Acadia and Enclave tested. CarEnvy’s pick? At a convincing discount of C$4,000 over the essentially identical Enclave, the arguably more fetching GMC Acadia is the one for us.

For that kind of cheddar, we’ll take the Professional Grade every time. But we’d still recommend taking them all for an… *ahem*… spin.

The 2013 Buick Enclave and GMC Acadia were generously provided by GM Canada for the purposes of this article.

[Photo credits: author]

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By Peter Dushenski

“To the mountains!” I proclaimed to myself, not quietly enough. The office paused momentarily before key taps and paper shuffling resumed.

My friend Conal had just asked a dozen of his closest friends, myself included, to join him at his family’s Canmore home for the weekend! Just like that, the stage was set for a weekend road trip to the ever-imposing Rockies. Our chariot for the 900 kilometer (555 mile) round-trip? The all-new, niche-defying (but quasi-Prius-fighting) Ford C-MAX, an all-new vehicle for 2013. Then…

Whoosh!

Just like that, 50 hours after we left Edmonton, we were home again. In between, we skied, hiked, died of laughter playing Cards Against Humanity, baked oatmeal cookies from scratch, teased each other about budding romances, relieved hundreds of glass bottles of their contents, and used only 58L of gas.

The weekend was a perfect opportunity for us to let off some steam, grow closer, and enjoy Ford’s foray into the growing market of family-oriented green vehicles.

Without further ado, here are the 5 C’s of C-MAX:

1. Conversation

Holding a conversation between front and back seat passengers, even with three other strongly-voiced young men, can be a challenge at highway speeds. Not so in the C-MAX. Despite the potentially echo’y hatchback design and unlike the hollow GMC Sierra we took on a trip to Canmore-neighbouring Banff last year, the C-MAX allowed the four handsome gents assembled in our mountain-bound machine to discuss Israel’s Better Place, Obama’s new cabinet appointments, and Google vs. Apple. The enlightened conversation was not unlike a Brothers Dushenski Podcast. In fact, if we’d had my brother Lawrence in the car, we could’ve replicated Episode 18 when he and I did our only non-Skyped podcast in Arad, Israel, partly in our Mazda5 rental car and partly in a crazed supermarket. Needless to say, I crave good conversation like pubescent teens crave each other and the C-MAX made it happen. Big points here.

2. Comfort

I’ll proudly admit to being from the James May School of Vehicle Suspension; that is, I much prefer a car to be compliant rather than “sporty”. Low-profile tires and red springs are big turn-offs for this avowed urbanite. Blessedly, the C-MAX comes fitted with Michelin X-Green All-Season tires and a brilliantly balanced suspension that was ever so composed over the mid-winter moonscape of urban Edmonton, Highway 2 between Edmonton and Calgary, and Highway 1 between Calgary and Canmore. I clenched my pilates-toned buttocks every time we neared a frost-heaved crest in the road, worrying that our coffees were about to fly high into the air, but for not. A gentle flow was all we ever felt.

The raised seating position of the C-MAX, far higher than quasi-competitors like the Prius and Golf Wagon TDI, meant a more ergonomic ingress, egress, and driving position. As someone who has spent the last 9 months in physio for neck and back problems resulting from blogging, tweeting, and poor weight lifting technique, the C-MAX was the most comfortable car to live with since the ingenious Fiat 500. The headroom, even with the seats in their highest positions and nary a sub-6-foot frame to be found, was hugely impressive. Not only did we all fit, but we felt relaxed. Had we been in the Focus, we would’ve felt far more claustrophobic (or romantic, as the case may be).

With a 40/20/40 split-folding rear bench, the four of us might’ve squeezed into the C-MAX with our ski gear inclus. With the standard 60/40 bench, however, we pawned the long stuff (skis, boards) onto our host’s Thule-equipped Honda Odyssey and made the journey with just our weekend bags and lanky bodies. Though filled to the brim and obstructing visibility out the rear, the C-MAX made it happen.

3. C Platform

Thanks to Ford CEO Alan Mullaly’s concerted global initiative, the C-MAX is closely related to other Fords we know and love, including the 2012 Focus (cheekily reviewed here) and 2013 Escape (more seriously reviewed here). This component sharing reduces costs, increases manufacturing flexibility, and makes “in-between” models like the C-MAX possible. Based on the New Global C-Segment Platform, the C-MAX sits taller than the Focus and shorter than the Escape while having larger windows and an airier feel than either. The C-MAX is the least sporty and most family-oriented of the lot.

Interestingly, Ford has chosen to offer the C-MAX exclusively as either Hybrid, starting at C$27,199, or Energi Plug-In Hybrid with up to 43km of gas-free driving from its 7.5kWh battery, starting at C$36,999. For comparison’s sake, the Chevy Volt (reviewed here) has a 16.5kWh battery pack, more than twice that of the Energi.

Ford is definitely entering new territory with the C-MAX.

4. Cents

With a size in-between the Focus and Escape, you’d expect in-between purchase and running costs. Not so. The fuel economy, at 7.0L/100km (34mpg), was a wallet-endearing amount less than the 9.0L/100km (26mpg) I observed in the Focus and 13.7L/100km (17mpg) I observed in the 2.0L EcoBoost Escape. If we (inaccurately) assume similar depreciation, insurance, and repair costs, that leaves the purchase price. Roughly speaking, the gap between the Focus and Escape is C$5,500 for similarly equipped vehicles and the C-MAX slots in almost exactly in the middle. Given the improved fuel economy, attractive exterior, ergonomic interior, airiness, unpretentiousness, and uniqueness, the newest C-Platform Ford is the most compelling of the lot.

Now if MyFordTouch were just a bit easier to use…

5. Camaraderie

From an automotive perspective, this weekend was about Ford’s compelling new family vehicle, but from a personal perspective, this weekend was about gratitude, smiles, and a feel-good crew.

This, certainly, was plain to C.

This vehicle was generously provided by Ford Canada for the purpose of this article.

[Photo credits: author ( Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, ]

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By Peter Dushenski

Forecasts are rational, useful, and necessary. Right?

Whether it’s 2013 US car sales forecasts made by Edmunds, Audi’s ambitious sales forecasts, population forecasts made by the UN, or inflation forecasts made by the Federal Reserve – everyone’s in on the forecasting game. But not all forecasts are created equal.

Listening to the weatherman for a week and comparing his predictions with climatological outcomes would show you how tough the forecasting game really is. And weather systems are far simpler than most of the systems we try to make date-specific predictions about. Is it really any wonder that everyone from Audi to the United Nations revises their forecasts until prediction and predicted merge seamlessly, like an outfielder catching a fly ball?

Forecasting of complex systems is nearly, if not completely, impossible. So why do we keep believing them?

We believe such forecasts for four primary reasons. 1) We believe they’re possible. 2) “Forecasts are better than nothing.” 3) They’re very hard to ignore.  4) It makes for a good tweet.

Let’s take a closer look at each of these.

1) The “Forecasts Are Possible” Argument:

Most of us forecast in our personal lives. We’re expected to. We’ve been asked “What do you want to do when you grow up?” since we were knee high to a grasshopper. When we entered our twenties and thirties, the question became “When are you getting married?” and so on and so forth.

Popular fodder for this argument are the scores of self-improvement books that encourage you to develop a 5-year plan. Do you recall what your life was like in January 2008? The chances that you would’ve accurately predicted your current situation is awfully close to zero, and this example was chosen for its relative simplicity! Imagine trying to pull off that trick for something far more complex with many more variables, such as a business, industry or global economy.

We’ve been trained from an early age to forecast and we believe in it intuitively, but this ignores that we can scarcely predict the outcomes of basic systems like weather and elections. So what makes us think that we can guess, much less deduce from piddling equations relying on trivial data, how many cars will be sold in the coming year or what the price of gold will be in 12 months from now? It’s a fool’s errand, yet we base our investments, our mortgages, our car loans, and our government pensions in the hands of the highly deluded and equally influential people who play this very game: that of date-dependent prediction. These influential people are easy to spot because they often call themselves “economists” to increase their credibility.

But “economists” aren’t the only ones who forecast, we all do it.

2) The “Forecasts Are Better Than Nothing” Argument:

Secondly, there’s the “forecasts are better than nothing” argument. Good evidence to the contrary is the case of US banks in the mid-2000s. They bet our money on the assumption that house prices in the US would rise indefinitely. They even used fancy models like the Black-Scholes to legitimize their assumptions. Then *BOOM*. “Our models never predicted this” was often heard in the aftermath. Their modeled forecasts not only hid risks and fooled investors, but they were untouchable scapegoats when the sh*t hits the fan.

Doing “nothing”, often seen as the alternative to forecasting, could only be worse if forecasting had neither negative nor unintended consequences. Since it frequently has both when used in complex systems (see Stalin, “economists”, etc), then not forecasting must be preferable. And as we’ll soon see, not forecasting isn’t the only alternative to forecasting.

3) The “Forecasts Are Very Hard To Ignore” Argument:

Thirdly, also known as the “Everyone Is Doing It, Even The Weatherman” argument, we address the argument that forecasts are very difficult to ignore. Between daily newspapers, TV, social media, cell phones, radio ads in the car, and billboards on the road, we rarely have a moment to ourselves that isn’t externally influenced. There’s always a stimulus for us to react to and forecasts are no exception. As Alain de Botton put it, this inundation of information makes us feel that “at any point, somewhere on the globe, something may occur to sweep away old certainties.” This is certainly the case with forecasts that prognosticate global doom and ingenuity-powered salvation in the same breath.

But many things are hard to ignore, like someone else’s crying children or the panhandler on the street, and we seem to manage just fine.

4) The “Forecasts Make For A Good Tweet” Argument:

Western Culture, in the Islamic tradition, favours using numbers to “prove” things. We don’t want fluffy ideas, we want data!, preferably in a graph or pie chart presentation. This inclination is also ideally suited to our 140-character thoughts, or what are often called “tweets”. As such, numbers go viral very, very easily. Numbers, particularly when translated graphically, tell a story. Unfortunately, graphs and data are far too easily manipulated. Facts end up conforming to theories, rather than vice versa.

Y’know what else makes for good tweet? What you ate for lunch. Since no one ever bet the family farm on the number of patties in your burger, you should probably stick with the mundane. Everyone else is doing it.

THE SOLUTION!:

1. Ignore Forecasts

Don’t confuse data, graphs, and forecasts for scientific absolutes – they’re not the same thing. If you’re skeptical of the weatherman, apply that skepticism to all date-specific forecasts, particularly when the systems are highly complex.

Also, don’t think that you’re better at forecasting than anyone else. You suck at it too.

2. Seek Balance

Data and graphs can be very useful in some domains, like determining vehicle crash safety or aerodynamics, but it can also be very harmful in other domains, like predicting EV adoption rates or predicting when you’re going to get married (particularly if you’re single) only to become disheartened when the “deadline” comes and goes.

But don’t let that prevent you from learning about your world and searching for love. As the 13th century Buddhist Zen teacher Dōgen wrote:

Knowledge is illusion; not knowing is ignorance.

3. Replace Forecasts With Bucket Lists

Before we can achieve our goals, first we must survive (obvious, but frequently skimmed over). Within the framework of our lifespan, we’re free to achieve whatever we can squeeze in. And just as we can’t know when our last breath will leave us, we can’t know when our goals will ultimately be accomplished.

Ditch the 5-year plan. Make a bucket list. And if your bucket list includes “Become the President of the United States”, don’t quit just because you’re 30 and not there yet.

Dream big. And go after those dreams every single day.

“Stay hungry, stay foolish” and stop forecasting.

[Image credits: Burkley Duffield, The Big Picture, author, UC Berkley via Altzar]

Every day is an opportunity for us to reflect and yet it’s during the holidays that we actually get enough breathing room between the incessant buzz of modernity and ourselves to make it happen. So let’s take this moment.

We have much to be grateful for: Peace in our country, heat in our homes, cars in our garages (maybe even a Fiat 500), food on our plates, and loved ones nearby. And more.

CarEnvy is also grateful for where we came from. Just over four short years ago, in October 2008, CarEnvy bursted forth from the frozen landscape with short drive reviews of the Lexus IS-F, Lexus LX570, and Lexus RX400h all in the same day. Oh how very, very far we’ve come. Exactly four years ago, we visited Cuba and marveled at the rolling automotive museums in the streets. Exactly three years ago, we played badminton in the Honolulu Open and saw Schumacher’s 2002 F1 car. Exactly two years ago, we volunteered in Costa Rica where we ran head-on into a non-Porsche Cayman and lived to tell the tale. Exactly year ago, we toured Maui in a Kia Soul and bicycled down the Haleakalā volcano. This year, we’re in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada with friends and family, braving -30C temperatures and experimenting with low-carb nutrition just when ginger snaps and perogies are tempting us the most. The journey, as challenging and rewarding as ever, continues.

Thank you so very much for following CarEnvy’s journey over the past 4+ years. It’s been an honour to share our stories with you and we’re very excited for the year ahead.

Merry Belated Christmas, Happy Belated Hannukah, Happy New Year, and a very Happy Holidays!

Yours Most Sincerely,

Peter

[Image Credit: 500blog]

The Chevy Volt.

Ah yes. The very embodiment of the Obama Administration’s public appeasement after GM’s bailout in 2008. For years thereafter, the Volt wrapped itself in the untouchable US flag and became a symbol of innovation, risk-taking, and taxpayer dollars. But now the dust has settled and the car is here: for sale at your local dealership, miles away from the world of partisan bickering, if not public relations spin. It’s been four long years since we were promised a revolution. Has the wait been worth it?

Much like the President, I had high, but not foolishly untempered expectations of this American. With its 16-kWh battery and 60km all-EV range, Chevy claims the Volt will ferry 78% of us to work and back without a single drop of Alberta’s famous bitumen. Of course, since it only seats four people, each family will need their own, but you get the idea. General Motors, the profligate statue of American excess, couldn’t (or wouldn’t) offer us complete freedom from oil. Not quite. For those “once-in-a-whiles” – those fishing trips, those trips to the farm, and those trips to the mountains – there’s an 83hp 1.4L “range-extender” (read: engine).

As an igloo-dwelling urbanite with no plug-in at home or office, the Volt isn’t for me. But that just makes its forbidden fruit that much sweeter. While in Vancouver recently, accompanying my fiancée on a “continuing education” getaway (not as miserable as it sounds), I sipped the extended-range-electric nectar and indulged in a “once-in-a-while”. But enough quotation marks.

With keys in hand, I took full advantage of the Voltec (big battery+little engine) to be as spontaneous as possible and set my course for the British Columbia Parliament Building in Victoria, on Vancouver Island. The copper-topped castle was a perfect excuse to ride the ferries I remembered so fondly from my time at Camp Miriam on Gabriola Island, just 5km east of Vancouver Island. From Vancouver to Victoria and back was 140km of driving on top of the two 90-minute ferry rides. How much of that could I run on pure electricity? What would the Volt be like when the engine turned on? I wondered…

Driving south from the pick-up spot in Burnaby, just east of Vancouver proper, I waded through steady rains and an even steadier stoplights towards the Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal 40km away. The windshield wipers tried their damnedest to keep up with the rain but frequently fell behind, diminishing my visibility in a car already marred by a cocooning wealth of plastic, leather, and (probably not enough) glass. Unlike in other electric cars (read: Nissan Leaf), any anxiety I had wasn’t from lack of range, GM’s little engine made sure of that, it was more from confusion as to the non-flakey nature of the precipitation. It was just so… wet.

Arriving at the terminal a full hour before the 1pm departure, I grabbed a slice of veggie pizza at the Quay Market and watched the cars line-up in enormous strings. The Volt had only 2km of full EV range showing on the 7” screen behind the steering wheel but I wasn’t the least bit worried. Although I had 30km to go from the Vancouver Island-side terminal to the gothic Parliament, I was looking forward to charging my battery-sucking iPhone 5, keeping the seats heated, and making good time without any further charging. I sat there, listening to the audiobook of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder(link to Amazon), the third in his trilogy on optionality, following 2001’s Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Marketsand 2008’s The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. The Black Swan, when I read it exactly one year ago, profoundly changed my worldview. To say that I was looking forward to digesting Antifragile would be a gross understatement.

What’s antifragility? It’s a made-up word for the things that benefit from volatility, unlike fragile things that are harmed by unpredictable circumstances [for more depth: video interview with Taleb]. Examples of antifragility are typically organic – like our bones – that have a convexity to volatility. What is manufactured by modern man, and therefore over-optimized towards “efficiency” – things like traffic, economies, and technology – are the opposite. When volatility strikes, and it eventually will, BOOM! Down goes anything over-optimized. (Unless it’s bailed out).

Nassim Taleb, with the erudition only a Levantine polyglot steeped in the Classics could have, categorically rejects efficiency and expounds redundancy and protection from the unknowable. He believes that an over-reliance on mathematical models has fragilized our Western society. He leaves no topic untouched: medicine, finance, and child-rearing all feel his wrath. And my goodness does he make a strong case! All this was flowing through my soggy cortex as I studied the motionless Volt sitting in line to board.

Then it hit me:

If you’re looking for an “electric” car that can handle life’s unpredictabilities, the Volt is it! No plug-in? No problem! That the Volt comes from a company synonymous with go-anywhere-do-anything trucks should come as no surprise.

The fully-electric Nissan Leaf, often seen as the Volt’s greatest competitor, is far more fragile. Nissan’s own website acknowledges that the same impromptu journey from Vancouver to Victoria would’ve been impossible in their electric car. The Volt didn’t care if there was no charging point. It made full use of its small gas-powered engine and a vast network of gas stations already dotting the landscape. Let’s not forget that the distances between North American populations are nothing to sneeze at, yet whether the spontaneous destination was Victoria or Seattle or the Parque Nacional Tortuguero, the Volt was ready. It was practically antifragile.

And it felt it. The doors were weighty, the sound insulation was upmarket, and the details were premium. The charging port opened with a sophisticated waft using the key fob, the side mirrors were elegant extrusions of the body (if functionally a bit too small), and the seating position was appreciably ergonomic. Without the anxiety of researching my next plug-in location, I was free to soak in these details through the antifragile lens.

As we boarded the ferry, I felt satisfied with my initial assessment and so retreated to the 7^th floor sun deck to soak in the sights and sounds of the ocean. My impromptu journey to Victoria was really just an excuse to be on the water again. Like Moby Dick’s protagonist Ishmael, I get to the sea as soon as I can whenever I start to feel like my hypos are getting the upper hand of me.

The crashing waves, punctuated by gong-like bongs of the ferry horn, washed away the day-to-day and reconnected me, nay, plugged me back in with the vastness of it all. My mind drifted from place to place, each representing a similar moment of water-induced calm. Maui, Israel, Spain, Lisbon, and back again.

The shore approaching, I returned to the Volt. One-by-one, the strings of cars disembarked onto Vancouver Island.

On the road towards Victoria, whistling away in EV mode, the ride dampening continued to impress. Flowing, smooth, and luxurious sensations filtered up through mon derrière without succumbing to excess body roll in the corners. My friend’s father, a spirited orthodontist and proud new 458 Italia owner, was equally impressed by the silence, comfort, and body control when I chauffeured him to the airport a few days later. He knows a thing or two about high-end cars and we both agreed that the Volt feels worthy of a C$50k price tag. No questions asked.

Back on Vancouver Island, the drizzled roads felt congested and claustrophobic. Trying to minimize my time away from the open ocean, I made a B-line for my legislative destination, scarcely noticing the 1.4L engine buzzing with wakeful intent. Arriving at 3:30pm, I snapped a photo of the Volt in front of Parliament (as seen at the end of the article), and returned once more to the Swartz Bay terminal to await the 5pm ferry back to the mainland.

Darkness soon descended. With the black paint handsomely masking the black body mouldings, shrouding the Volt in a phantom’s cloak, the cutting red taillights were like lighthouses. The strings of cars boarded the 5 o’clock ferry, and for the next 90 minutes, I stood silently at the bow of the ship, alone, ocean spray spotting my glasses, as the ship’s spotlight communicated silently with the shore. The blackness was consuming. And connecting. The stars were the light.

Disembarking for the 2nd and final time, the strings of cars poured out of the Leviathan. Back on the mainland, I set course for Vancouver to celebrate my friend Megan’s birthday.

After 142.5km of driving, seat heating, phone charging, idling, and music bumping, I arrived relaxed, refreshed, renewed, and with respect for GM’s accomplishment.

Although the Volt appears to be an intermediary technology between all-gas and all-electric, it’s far from a middling attempt. It’s not just an alternative propulsion vehicle, it’s a lifestyle vehicle in the vein of the Mercedes CLS, i.e. one that mixes practicality and performance in an eye-catching package. Through that lens, its low operating costs are icing on the cake, even if its well-to-wheel emissions continue to stir debate.

Pundits who aren’t in the market for a $50k new car have made a mountain out of the Volt’s C$42,000 (C$48,030 as tested) price tag, but it’s really no more than the far less amusing BMW 328i, with a few boxes ticked. It’s hard to think of a more eye-catching, attention-grabbing, conversation-starting, statement-making, luxurious-feeling, quasi-efficient lifestyle vehicle for the money.

It might not be ideal for a plug-inless urbanite in snowy Alberta, but for spontaneous West Coasters, the Chevy Volt is the cool, calm, and the most antifragile electric car in North America’s vast expanse.

Having a range-extending engine for the “once-in-a-whiles” isn’t optimally efficient, but the Volt is better for it. Even Nassim Taleb would approve.

[Photo credits: author, Map credit: Google]