Median sales prices still remain higher as Fall arrives

Soon the leaves will turn brown, golden, and football will be in full swing as Fall arrives with good news for homeowners — median sales prices are still rising on the Westside in the communities I report on — Beverly Hills, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, Westwood/Century City, Brentwood and Santa Monica. Through the first eight months of 2022, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills increased median sales price by 50% to $3.713 million over same period in 2021. Brentwood was up 12% to $2,112 million, Santa Monica was up 13% to $2.858 million, Westwood/Century City climbed 9% to $2.280 million, and Beverly Hills moved up 5% to $3.200 million.

Overall, these communities were seeing top prices in a market that has tightened up considerably — inventory is way down — and the number of listings is really taking a back seat. New listings in Beverly Hills were down 21%, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills listings were down 17%, Westwood/Century City were off 25%, but Santa Monica was down 34% and Brentwood off 32%. What does that tell us: Supply plummets and prices keep rising to record highs.

Compared to August 2021, prices were down
Comparing prices in these communities to where they were a year ago, only Beverly Hills showed a major upswing in median sales prices for August 2022 vs. August 2021, up 31% for median sales price of $3.740 million. All of the other areas were down — with Bel-Air/Holmby Hills off by 30% versus a year ago at this time.

The key trend to watch is ‘year-to-date’ median sales price #s which continue to be strong. So while we are seeing is a rather dramatic reduction of available inventory — which has provoked higher prices from the start of 2022. We are seeing a slowdown in aggressive pricing practices by homeowners who think they can cash in quickly. What is selling are quality homes priced competitively.

Real estate deflation is on the horizon according to some economists. But the good news, our Westside real estate has consistently countered national trends…yes, less inventory, but still strong prices.

In our next issue, we’ll focus on the high-end Westside real estate market for homes selling over $5 million.

Real estate market heats up, but challenges grow

With the stock market feeling the impact of growing inflation and rising mortgage rates, the real estate market is facing continued challenges on many fronts. For us on the Westside, we tend to get the tail-end of negative and positive trends across the country. Now, with inflation continuing to play a major role in our economy, we are seeing inventory continue to drop, median sales prices rising, and with the Fed moving to tack on another rate hike next week, duplicating their 75 point increase last month, we can expect a rise in mortgage rates. Will real estate cost more…that’s the question.

There are plenty of reasons US housing will remain costly according to the Wall Street Journal, and that in turn will contribute to inflation, complicating the Fed’s policy path. The basic supply-and-demand dynamic — with the former squeezed and the latter still strong — means consumers will need to expect to pay more for a place to live. Not only is housing affordability taking a hit now, but rents are also zooming up, especially in major metros like Los Angeles and San Francisco. But there are some signs that it isn’t all bad news.

As real estate strategist Jared Dillian noted…”a tight labor market and rising wages also support home prices. Solid financing, stricter regulation, and “massively deleveraged” consumers with equity-rich properties make the case there won’t be another crisis in residential real estate. With low supply and high demand, homes are selling quicker and close to the original selling price.”

Another example of buyer interest is Google home searches usually moderate during the summer, with potential buyers on vacation, according to UBS’s John Lovallo. But not this year. Search interest for existing homes rose 1.6% and jumped 22% for new homes from the end of May through August versus the average of the same time period over the prior eight years.

On the Westside, lack of quality homes on the market definitely impacts sales volumes and does positively impact home prices and lest we not forget, positively increase home equity. I will keep you posted on local and national trends affecting our real estate market on the Westside.

Mortgage delinquencies drop to 23-year low

Overall mortgage delinquencies and foreclosure rates remained near two-decade lows in June, with home price growth that remains in double digits and a strong U.S. job market helping to keep mortgage performance healthy. Metro areas that rely on the hospitality industry saw particularly large job losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, while hurricanes in that same year impacted employment on the Gulf Coast. This naturally resulted in an increase in mortgage delinquencies, but areas of the country that were most impacted are now recovering.

The nation’s overall delinquency rate for June was 2.9%. The rate for early-stage delinquencies – defined as 30 to 59 days past due – was 1.2% in June 2022, up from June 2021. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due was 0.3%, unchanged from June 2021. The serious delinquency rate – defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure – was 1.3%, down from 3% in June 2021. As of June 2022, the foreclosure inventory rate was 0.3%, up from June 2021.

Flash: Home equity grew by $3.6 trillion. Feel Better?
If you’re a homeowner, you’ve got be smiling. According to real estate tracker guru, CoreLogic, analysis shows U.S. homeowners with mortgages (roughly 63% of all properties) have seen their equity increase by a total of over $3.6 trillion since the second quarter of 2021, a gain of 27.8% year over year. Not too bad.

In the second quarter of 2022, the average homeowner gained approximately $60,200 in equity during the past year. Hawaii, California and Florida experienced the largest average equity gains at $129,800, $117,000 and $100,000 respectively. Washington, D.C. and Iowa experienced the lowest average equity gains in the second quarter of 2022, at $16,900 and $17,600 respectively.

Negative equity has seen a recent decrease across the country. Las Vegas, Los Angeles and San Francisco are the least challenged, with Negative Equity Share of all mortgages at 0.6%.

This is what sets us and the real estate totally apart from the situation in 2008, people have the equity in their homes now, vs then, they had none, and were using their homes as ATM machines. When you consider that in 2010, with the Great Recession coming to final close that saw home equity disappear by the trillions as well, it is nice to see the market having clawed its way back.

The rental gap grows in California…and it is getting worse

Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and three other California cities have some of the biggest millennial renter wage gaps in the country — the gap being the difference between what the typical worker can afford versus the average rental costs.

Of the California cities, Los Angeles has the biggest rent wage gap for millennials, followed by San Diego in third place, San Francisco in fifth, San Jose in seventh, Riverside in eighth and Sacramento in 12th, according to an analysis by the air filter company Filterbuy using data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2020 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample.

In Los Angeles, the millennial wage gap was minus 49.5% in 2020, with millennial renters making a median wage of $36,649, according to the analysis. However, renters needed an average wage of $72,560 to pay for a one-bedroom rental. The median rent for a one-bedroom was about $1,814; about 35.6% of millennials in the city were renters. I find this to be very disheartening. I cannot remember facing these challenges as a young lady entering the workforce after graduating from UCLA’s Anderson. How times have changed.

Heat, wind, fire, rain, floods…what’s next?

If you’re worried about climate change, you don’t have to wait long: Our climate has been changing by the minute these past few weeks. From scorching temperatures in three digits across the Southland for days on end…with fires raging to the north….and then the Santa Anas…the rain, which really didn’t hang around long enough, caused flash floods in canyons. We have just pulled about every climate rabbit out of our weather hat…except one. And I will not mention the “E” word.

Suffice to say, we are in still in serious fire danger. We have had some of our most disastrous fires locally in late September and October. So, please be vigilant. As the LA Fire Department has warned us repeatedly — we have a 12-month fire season. All year long!! So please heed their basic warnings: Clear brush around your home, remove clutter, clean your gutters, and always have an escape plan.

Putting things in perspective
The other day I was talking to a friend of mine, and I was complaining about the number of flies in my house (do you know they come into buildings to escape the heat?) Still have not figured out how they are coming into the house, but that is another story. In any case while I was moaning about things that had happened in my life in the recent few weeks, she shared a story about someone close to her who was quite ill and probably would not live much longer. WOW, did that make me think about my life, and appreciate everything I have. Many times, it takes someone else’s stories for us to be GRATEFUL for what we have.

Speaking of being grateful, I want to thank you all for your support, friendship and readership of the Schiffer Line. AND for your business. There is still a lot of real estate business to be done before the end of the year, and I mean to be a part of it with and for you, so please reach out to me Carole Schiffer – caroleschiffer.com – ceschiffer@gmail.com – 310 442-1384. Let’s have some fun working together. I am looking forward to it and hope you are also.

Speaking of taking care of business, I want to tip my hat to Queen Elizabeth, for the most part, she was a lady who knew how to take care of business. Rest in Peace Queen Elizabeth

The post Lesson Learned first appeared on Los Angeles Realtor - Carole Schiffer.

Interest rate hike spikes impacting real estate. Not so much.  

The big question is:  Will the increased interest rate hike by the Fed last Wednesday by another .75 basis points have a major impact real estate?  It will.  But not in the way you’d expect. 

According to a report last Wednesday in the LA Times, “…that is a significant jump, yet analysts don’t expect mortgage interest rates to respond much, if at all. That’s because the Fed’s interest-rate moves have only an indirect effect on mortgages and other long-term loans. They’re just one of multiple forces at ay in mortgage interest rates.  In fact, mortgage rates were lower the week before the rate announcement”. 

The Federal Reserve continued to move quickly to reverse its easy-money policies by approving another unusually large interest rate increase and signaling more rises were likely coming to combat inflation that is running at a 40-year high. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it was too soon to say whether the Fed would dial down the size of its rate increases to a half-percentage point or a quarter-percentage point at its next meeting in September. But he said that at some stage, it would be appropriate to slow the pace of rate increases to assess their cumulative impact on the economy.  

So, what does this mean for our real estate market?  Economists were quick to point to previous periods where there was an aggressive attack to bring inflation under control, and some are predicting that we could face a recession where real estate prices coming down and inventories tighten.  So, with last week’s action, the central bank has raised rates since March as much as it did between 2015 and 2018 and returned the fed-funds rate to a level last seen three years ago, before a slowing economy led the Fed to cut rates slightly. Officials slashed them to near zero in March 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic raced around the world. 

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Heard on the street: 

What some of my financial gurus are telling me is that, yes, the number of sales is down, but the prices continue to rise. I am also seeing homes still selling quickly if they are priced properly.  As it has always been, homes that are overpriced are lingering on the market.    They are also saying that buyers who are standing on the sidelines should not hold off purchasing the home they want because:

1. Most likely, we are at the top or close to the top of the interest rates, and once they come down, we could be “off to the races “again” with multiple offers.
2. They are also saying that should you buy that home now, you can re-finance it in the future, of course, you will need to factor in the cost of the re-fit which is most likely a few thousand dollars, so you will need to figure the spread with the mortgage payment savings, and those re-re-expenses.

I am here as always to work with and assist you in figuring this all out. Call me. Carole – 310 442-1384

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Are foreign buyers coming to the rescue?  Maybe. 

Foreign buyers purchased $59 billion worth of U.S. existing homes from April 2021 through March 2022, an 8.5% increase from the previous 12-month period and stopping a three-year skid in foreign investment in U.S. residential real estate, according to a new report from the National Association of Realtors. That’s a lot of real estate!

Foreign buyers purchased 98,600 properties, down 7.9% from the prior year and the fewest number of homes bought since 2009, when NAR began tracking this data. Overall, in the U.S., existing-home sales totaled 6.12 million in 2021 – the highest annual level since 2006.

“For the second year in a row, restrictions and general caution tied to international travel during the pandemic slowed home buying by wealthier foreign buyers,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.  But their buying spree picked up in the past 12 months.  

Foreign buyers who lived abroad purchased $24.9 billion worth of existing homes, up 13.2% from the 12 months prior and accounting for 42% of the dollar volume. International buyers accounted for 2.6% of the $2.3 trillion in existing-home sales during that time period.

The average ($598,200) and median ($366,100) existing-home sales prices among international buyers were the highest ever recorded by NAR – and 17.7% and 4.1% higher, respectively, than the previous year. “Affordability challenges along with the inability to find the right property were the top reasons given for prospective international buyers who showed interest but ultimately did not purchase a home in the United States,” said Yun.

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Pending home sales decreased in June…West led the decline

Pending home sales decreased in June, following a slight increase in May, according to the National Association of Realtors. All four major regions posted month-over-month and year-over-year pullbacks, the largest of which occurred in the West. However, with all the national media reports, they are not talking specifically about West Los Angeles.  That situation is different from other parts of the country, including the West.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, dipped 8.6% to 91.0 in June. Year-over-year, transactions shrank 20.0%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

“Contract signings to buy a home will keep tumbling down as long as mortgage rates keep climbing, as has happened this year to date,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “There are indications that mortgage rates may be topping or very close to a cyclical high in July. If so, pending contracts should also begin to stabilize.” 

According to NAR, buying a home in June was about 80% more expensive than in June 2019. Nearly a quarter of buyers who purchased a home three years ago would be unable to do so now because they no longer earn the qualifying income to buy a median-priced home today.

“Home sales will be down by 13% in 2022, according to our latest projection,” Yun added. “With mortgage rates expected to stabilize near 6% and steady job creation, home sales should start to rise by early 2023.”

Existing U.S. home sales dropped for fifth straight month

Affordability is taking a hit.  Existing-home sales dropped for the fifth straight month in June, according to the NAR. Three out of four major U.S. regions experienced month-over-month sales declines and one region held steady. Year-over-year sales sank in all four regions.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dipped 5.4% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.12 million in June. Year-over-year, sales fell 14.2% (5.97 million in June 2021).

“Falling housing affordability continues to take a toll on potential home buyers,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Both mortgage rates and home prices have risen too sharply in a short span of time.”  

Total housing inven

tory registered at the end of June was 1,260,000 units, an increase of 9.6% from May and a 2.4% rise from the previous year. The median existing-home price for all housing types in June was $416,000, up 13.4% from June 2021 ($3

66,900), as prices increased in all regions. This marks 124 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.

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Huge rent increases are expected to go into effect August 1  

Tenants across California can expect their rental fees are going up substantially come August 1. And there will be something familiar to blame — inflation. Landlords will be allowed to boost the rent on millions of apartments statewide by as much as 10% starting this month.  

It is the maximum allowable annual increase under a state law passed a few years ago was designed to protect tenants from being pushed out of their homes due to exorbitant rent hikes. The law caps annual rent increases at 5% plus an inflationary figure that varies by region across California. 

In the first years that the law was in effect, the total allowable increase hovered between 5.7% and 9%. (It has been 8.6% in Los Angeles this year and 8.8% in the Bay Area, to give two examples.)  But beginning in August, because inflation is so high, every region in the state meets the requirement for the cap to be set at a 10% rent increase. The 10% allowable rent increase applies only to apartment complexes that were built before 2007 and not otherwise subject to local rent control rules. 

In the city of Los Angeles, apartments built before October 1978 — nearly three-quarters of the city’s rental stock — fall under rent control. Through regulations that began at the beginning of the pandemic, landlords are not allowed to increase rent for existing tenants in those units at all. 

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Our beloved Monarch butterfly moves closer to extinction

The beautiful Monarch butterfly moved a step closer to extinction last week as scientists put the iconic orange-and-black insect on the endangered list because of its fast-dwindling numbers.  “It’s just a devastating decline,” said Stuart Pimm, an ecologist at Duke University who was not involved in the new listing. “This is one of the most recognizable butterflies in the world.”

The International Union for the Conservation of Nature added the migrating monarch butterfly for the first time to its “red list” of threatened species and categorized it as “endangered” — two steps from extinct. 

The group estimates that the population of monarch butterflies in North America has declined between 22% and 72% over 10 years, depending on the measurement method. “What we’re worried about is the rate of decline,” said Nick Haddad, a conservation biologist at Michigan State University. “It’s very easy to imagine how very quickly this butterfly could become even more imperiled.”

Haddad estimates that the population of monarch butterflies he studies in the eastern United States has declined between 85% and 95% since the 1990s. The butterflies are imperiled by loss of habitat and increased use of herbicides and pesticides for agriculture, as well as climate change.  There are things people can do to help, including planting milkweed, a plant that the caterpillars depend upon. Nonmigratory monarch butterflies in Central and South America were not designated as endangered. 

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So, what else isn’t new?  Drought. Heat. Fire season.                               

I was reluctant to include earthquakes in this list, but since we have not had a moderate-to-large quake in recent years, all we have to do is face one of California’s most severe droughts in its history, the heated dogdays of Summer 2022, and a fire season that never leaves.  So, perhaps, it could be worse.  

As I reflected on how the drought is affecting our beautiful home landscapes, the City of Los Angeles continued to praise our water conservation performance, at least for now.  “We’ll wait to see how homeowners follow through with restricted water usage on their property this summer,” Metropolitan Water District spokesperson said last month. 

The DPW has a free recycled irrigation water.  It offers up to 300 gallons of disinfected water per person per visit.   Currently it is available at the Los Angeles -Glendale Water Reclamation Plant and the LA Zoo Parking lot.  To qualify for the program, one be an active customer with LAWD, complete an application form and take training classes which are available at the sites.  For more information, contact the LAWD on their web site.

We can’t do much about the weather, but we all need to be mindful of the threat of fires in our canyons and mountains.  As I have mentioned so many times, please follow the guidelines laid down by the City of LA Fire Department — clear brush from around your home and other structures, remove clutter, clean your gutters, and always have an escape plan.  We are not immune to fires in our beautiful neighborhoods.  Stay safe. Please.  

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Keeping up with me

Every day I thank my lucky stars for my life, where I live, work, my family & friends, and health.  When you see what is happening all over with the crazy weather, people fighting one another, food insecurity, etc.

In working with my clients, I am sooooo very fortunate to see some pretty amazing properties and watch the trends of what is happening in the real estate world.  One of my clients, is looking for a home in the Ocean Park area in Santa Monica, one that has the open floor design concept.  With more inventory coming on the market now, we are seeing a lot of the same potential buyers all looking at the same house as we are, and all of these homes are receiving multiple offers, all over asking.

Unfortunately, for my client she needs to sell her house first, and with the market conditions that exist, none of the sellers are interested in that type of proposition.  We will keep digging and I know we will find one where the scenario will work.

I also have a great 3/2.75+ den home for lease in Bel Air Crest.  The asking price is $11,900. It looks like we will have it leased by the end of the week as we have two applications which means it will have been leased in a week.

Let me know how I can supply the excellent service for you in your real estate needs.

Carole – ceschiffer@gmail.com

The post Weathering the Storm first appeared on Los Angeles Realtor - Carole Schiffer.

Happy Fourth of July….we are passing 2022’s half-way mark and we have seen so much happening since January 1. The world continues to spin on its axis, but it has also changed a great deal in the past few months. Every day brings something new and with it a challenge or two, but we will get through it and the real estate market will stay strong as well.

There is some good news…. especially about demand for loans which were on the rebound last week since interest rates have retreated from 2022’s high last week with smaller loan requests, hinting that home price appreciation maybe cooling.  According to a weekly survey of lenders by the Mortgage Bankers Association. purchase mortgage applications were up a seasonally adjusted 8% when compared to the week before. Mortgage rates have been on the rise this year, after the Federal Reserve gradually withdrew the support it provided to the economy during the pandemic and began tightening monetary policy to fight inflation. So this may be a stabilizing factor in mortgagelending according to the Mortgage Bankers. I know for me, I will be refinancing my loan as it adjusts in November and I want to take advantage of the rates now, w. h is 4,75% for a confirming (under $989,000) 15-year fixed rate loan.

One of the positive outcomes of rising home prices that we have seen in the past few years, is that Americans have more equity in their homes than ever before. Total U.S. home equity increased almost 20% in the first quarter to $27.8 trillion, a record high, according to the Federal Reserve. The increase is another consequence of a red-hot housing market. Double-digit price gains have driven some would-be homeowners out of the market. At the same
time, rising home values are boosting the finances of the Americans who already own them.

Fortunately, we are seeing strong sales on the Westside even as interest rates rise — which do not seem to have the same impact as in other parts of the country. Bottom-line: Our business is strong on the Westside, and I expect it to remain so.

Click here to see the Bel Air Crest Quarterly Market Update

Click here to see the Bel Air Park Quarterly Market Update

Click here to see the Brentwood Quarterly Market Update

Click here to see the Brentwood Circle Quarterly Market Update

Click here to see the Moraga Drive Quarterly Market Update

Click here to see the Moraga Place Quarterly Market Update

Click here to see the Mountaingate Quarterly Market Update

Click here to see the Westwood Hills Quarterly Market Update

The post Quarterly Updates 1 July 2022 first appeared on Los Angeles Realtor - Carole Schiffer.

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Lets’ Deal With Our Elephant In The Room

Yes, both the bond and stock market have taken hits the last few days, and yes, the blame falls into the lap of the increasing perspective of inflation brought on by the conflict in Ukraine, the horrific price of gas, food and other everyday items in our lives.  This has in fact brought on an increase of interest rates and the potential impact on housing prices, etc. However, however much it hurts to see these prices, there is another reality to all of this; We are looking at the interest rates to stabilize sometime this summer (hopefully), home prices in “our neck of the woods” are currently continuing to go up, and the forecast is for that to continue.

Once again, we are being told to advise our clients to buy NOW. If you know anyone who is waiting for the market to crash, please tell them to stop holding their breath as unless something dire happens, the market simply is not going to crash, and they will have missed the opportune moment to get into the real estate game. Some may be uncomfortable obtaining a new loan at today’s higher interest rates and might think about getting a “swing or bridge” for their purchase, thus paying all cash and then re-finance the new loan at a later date. I think we all know that at the end of the day, real estate is the best investment we can make.  The bottom line… There is no time like the present to purchase real estate.

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Some Buyers Pause Amid Rising Rates, Prices…

Some home buyers are backing away from the market, with a plan to wait six or even 12 months before they resume their search, according to a new survey of 900 real estate professionals conducted by Home Light. About 35% of real estate professionals reported that they have seen buyers drop out of the market completely.

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The Theory of Real Estate Relativity… Even Einstein Would be Shocked!

It’s all relative. Albert Einstein would surely be shaking his head if he came back and saw the enormous prices sellers were getting for their homes. With median prices for a California home in 1940 around $2,800 and triple that (and more) in Beverly Hills, home prices continue to rise across Los Angeles’s Westside. We continue to see mega mansions going on the market for excessive millions, only to be brought back to Earth as the market figures it out. Yes, Albert Einstein would surely be scratching his head at today’s cost of living in our ’neck of the woods’. Are we getting used to this? Yes, I think so. For the four major communities I cover — Beverly Hills, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, Westwood/Century City and Brentwood — the MLS data reveals a mixed bag of median sales prices increasing or falling back. Bel-Air/Holmby Hills had a 61% increase in median sales price of $3,995 million through May 2022 compared to a year ago at this time, while Brentwood, with a May median sales price of $2.001 million, was down 48% versus last year at this time. Westwood/Century City was not much better off, down 48% to $990,000, but this is surely temporary. Beverly Hills was up 2% to $3,350 million for the first five months of 2022. Culver City, another market I cover, median sales price was up to $1.738 million.

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Inventory Is Another Mixed Bag…

What we have noticed is some growth in inventory over the past two months — Beverly Hills inventory increased 2.5% over April 2022, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was up 30%, and Westwood/Century City was up 400%….true…they went from one new listing in April to 5 new listings in May. However, we also saw Brentwood’s new listings for May was down 26%. Culver City had 80 active listings and 56 pending listings. The lack of broad increases in inventory, especially during the ’super selling season’ (like now) reflects homeowners’ reluctance to move in these challenging economic times with rising inflation and mortgage rates starting to climb again. So, it is quite amazing to see a more affordable community such as the Westwood/Century City area with only one listing in April.

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Westside Keeps On Moving, Onward… Upward

For Los Angeles Westside (covering areas from Beverly Hills north to Malibu), we are still ahead of last year in high end sales. There have been 477 sales of $5 million so far this year, versus 451 at this time last year, up 5%. Of these, 165 were $10 million-plus this year, versus 148 at this time last year, up 11%.  Forty-two (42) of these sales were $20 million-plus this year, versus 38 at this time last year, up 10%. Twenty-one (21) were $30 million-plus this year, versus 11 at this time last year, up 90% (wow!). And 13 were $40 million-plus this year and there were 6 at this time last year, up 115%.  At the moment, there are 96 pending sales of $5 million-plus, and 28 are $10 million-plus…8 are $20 million-plus and 3 are $30 million-plus. The areas of the 42 sales of $20 million-plus are 9 in Malibu, 8 in BHPO, 7 each in Bel- Air and Palisades, 6 in Beverly Hills, 2 in Hancock Park and 1 each in Sunset Strip, Holmby Hills and Brentwood.

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Agent Housing Stock Prompts Remodeling Boom!

The country’s aging housing stock is prompting homeowners to make more home renovations, particularly younger owners who have faced limited housing inventories for sale. Nearly half of U.S. homeowners plan to upgrade or remodel their homes this year, according to a survey conducted by National Association of Home Builders. The trend is most prominent among homeowners between the ages of 25 to 44, who are undertaking the most renovations and looking to bring current trends and renovations to the aging homes they purchase.

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How Are We Doing With Water Conservation? Lousy…

According to data released last week by the State Water Resources Control Board, cities and towns in the South Coast hydrologic region — an area that includes Los Angeles and more than half the state’s population — used 25.6% more water in April than in April 2020, the first year of the current drought.

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Our Cities Grand Architectural History Is Still Here To Enjoy

OK, let’s face it. Los Angeles is not London, Rome, or Paris. We have young, but strong roots in our communities that were, for the most part, developed in the mid- to late-1800s. During that time, we have created some memorable monuments to our culture….a California culture like no other. Where would you find such an enthralling, still-wildly popular place like….

For those of you who are lucky enough to still have your fathers to celebrate with, please enjoy this special day to honor and enjoy them. There are so very many ways to remember all of the wonderful things our fathers did and do for us.

Happy Juneteenth. a federal holiday to celebrate Liberty, something special we have to honor and cherish.

We continue to see strength in our market, especially on the high-end. The question is going to be what happens if we are heading for a recession?

The past has taught us that while the real estate market may indeed suffer because of first-time buyers being priced out of the market or unable to qualify for higher interest rate mortgages, we have survived. As you can see, our wonderful Westside continues to attract buyers from all over the world — no safer real estate investment than what we offer here in our communities. And who can compete with our cultural, shopping, dining, and recreational assets — not to mention the gorgeous weather we have had lately.

I just want you to know I am here for you. The past year has been invigorating for me …and more importantly beneficial to my clients — both sellers and buyers. I wish you the best as we dive into Summer…Enjoy!

Carole Schiffer, Realtor Coldwell-Banker Residential Brokerage/Brentwood Office 310-442-1384 (office) or e-mail me at carole@caroleschiffer.com www.caroleschiffer.com
CalBRE 00677619
©2022 Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC. Coldwell Banker is a registered trademark licensed to Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC 234567An Equity Company. Equal Housing Opportunity. Owned and Operated by NRT LLC

The post SchifferLine 15 June 2022 first appeared on Los Angeles Realtor - Carole Schiffer.

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Existing home sales down 2.4% in April
If you’re reading the latest economic news, it is not surprising that existing home sales are down — inventory is lightening up some, prices remain high, interest rates up.

The National Association of Realtors reported existing home sales were down for a third straight month, slipping slightly in April. Month-over-month sales were split amongst the four major U.S. regions, with two areas posting gains and the other two experiencing waning sales in April. Year-over-year sales struggled, as each of the four regions reported dips. Existing-home sales in the West dipped 5.8% compared to the previous month, registering an annual rate of 1,140,000 in April, down 8.1% from one year ago. The median price in the West was $523,000, up 4.3% from April 2021.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, slid 2.4% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million in April. Year-over-year, sales dropped 5.9% (5.96 million in April 2021).

“Higher home prices and sharply higher mortgage rates have reduced buyer activity,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “It looks like more declines are imminent in the upcoming months, and we’ll likely return to the pre-pandemic home sales activity after the remarkable surge over the past two years.”

Total housing inventory at the end of April amounted to 1,030,000 units, up 10.8% from March and down 10.4% from one year ago (1.15 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.2-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 1.9 months in March and down from 2.3 months in April 2021.
“Housing supply has started to improve, albeit at an extremely sluggish pace,” said Yun. He also noted the rare state of the current marketplace.
“The market is quite unusual as sales are coming down, but listed homes are still selling swiftly, and home prices are much higher than a year ago,” said Yun.

“Moreover, an increasing number of buyers with short tenure expectations could opt for 5-year adjustable-rate mortgages, thereby assuring fixed payments over five years because of the rate reset,” he added. “The cash buyers, not impacted by mortgage rate changes, remain elevated.”

We are also seeing more buyers going for fixed rate loans rather than the adjustable they have in recent years.

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New home sales plunge 1.7% in April
Sales of new, single-family houses in the U.S. dropped 1.7% — more than expected last month to the lowest level in two years as rising construction costs, home prices, interest rates and supply chain woes continue to batter the industry.

The U.S. Census Bureau’s latest data shows the pace of new home sales fell by 16.6% in April from the month before at a seasonally adjusted rate of 591,000. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv anticipated a dip of 1.7%.

The drop is 26.9% lower than a year ago, and the lowest since April 2020. This is the
fourth straight month new home sales have declined.

The Census Bureau reported that the median sales price of new homes hit $450,600 last month. With interest rates now upward of 5.8%, the rising cost of homeownership is pricing more would-be buyers out of the market.

“One year ago, 25% of new home sales were priced below $300,000,” explained Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American. “In April of this year, only 10% of new home sales were priced below $300,000.”
Inventory of new homes was also up last month, according to government data. “New home months’ supply jumped to 9 months, up from 6.9 months in March and the highest since 2010,” Kushi noted, predicting, “Builders will likely slow construction in the months ahead.”

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Housing demand surges in pricey suburbs
New residential sales data shows that the most popular housing markets of 2022 are the top 10 pricey suburbs just outside a major city. Among the pandemic’s prevailing housing market trends has been a surge in demand in the suburbs, as urban dwellers reevaluate their needs amid a rise in remote work.

These markets include, Woodinville, Washington; Highlands Ranch, Colorado; Westchase, Florida; Yorba Linda, California, John’s Creek, George; and Tustin, California.

The most popular markets so far this year paint a picture of how remote work has changed the U.S. housing landscape. Demand for suburban homes found an extra gear last summer, perhaps as buyers gained more clarity in their employers’ return-to-office policies.

Research suggests the rise of remote work is responsible for roughly half of home-price growth during the pandemic. How many employers continue to allow this flexibility for employees to live where they choose will go a long way toward determining which markets are most in demand in the future.

The report also found that home prices were increasing in all 10 markets at a faster rate than their nearest major city, underscoring the lasting popularity of suburban markets amid the pandemic.

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NAR’s economist views 2022 with caution….
Two years after enduring the devastating financial impacts of COVID-19, the U.S. economy has made an impressive comeback, in large part due to a booming housing market. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted there are significant questions regarding the sector’s direction over the coming months. According to Yun, housing kept the economy afloat as home prices rose and buyer demand intensified during the Pandemic.

“However, this year has already thrown some curveballs, including record-low inventory and unyielding inflation.” Yun says inflation will persist and in turn cause strain for would-be buyers. Additionally, other external economic factors will negatively impact the market, both indirectly and directly, he said.

“The Russia-Ukraine war and escalating fuel prices have contributed to further housing unaffordability for buyers.” And Yun explained that a more immediate impact for home seekers has been the rapid increase of mortgage rates, along with other anti-inflationary actions from the Federal Reserve.

“Mortgages now compared to just a few months ago are costing more money for home buyers,” he said. “For a median-priced home, the price difference is $300 to $400 more per month, which is a hefty toll for a working family.”

NAR calculates purchasing a home is now 55% more expensive than a year ago. These rising mortgage rates and prices hurt affordability, and although wages are improving, Yun says they are “wiped away” due to inflation.

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Bidding wars for apartments….and no refrigerator?
This is happening all over Southern California. The availability of apartments in Los Angeles and surrounding counties is so tight that some renters are paying above list price to secure a high-quality unit, while others jostle for the remaining stock of apartments. And many are coming with no refrigerators.

As a result, renters are scrambling to ‘get in line’ for rentals and it is not uncommon to find multiple offers now going to premium rentals — condos or single-family homes. LA County rents are up 16% from a year ago, when the rental market was still subdued by people who moved in with family or moved inland for more space — as remote working demands increased across the Southland.

The Los Angeles Times recently covered another phenomenon — rental units, which once included refrigerators, are now renting ‘without’. This is forcing renters to scramble on Craig’s List, Facebook Marketplace, and the newly created Underground Fridge economy to find the appliance. Lucky renters with extra cash opt out of the used refrigerators and go to Best Buy or Home Depot and get a new one delivered. The Times reported that the National Multifamily Housing council that California has more apartments without refrigerators than any other state in the union.

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Los Angeles’ glorious architectural history
We have covered several other prominent architectural gems in The Schiffer Line before, and today, we are sharing with you other renown attractions that have earned their place as part of our area’s amazing cultural history.

Lummis House, Highland Park
Built and named after its namesake, Charles Lummis, a passionate convert to the life and culture of Southern California, as is truly one of its most fabulous founding characters. The Lummis House is located in Highland Park, which he built of boulders dragged up from the Arroyo Seco, the sometimes-waterway of which Teddy Roosevelt told Angelenos: “This arroyo would make one of the greatest parks in the world.”

Naturally, we turned it into the Pasadena Freeway according to a recent Los Angeles Times article…and that’s true. Lummis was the City Librarian and insisted all Angelenos read about our history.

Skirball Cultural Center, Sepulveda Pass
Like the Getty, it sits atop a hill above the Sepulveda Pass and has its own exit sign on the 405. It is a meeting and exhibit space describing itself as “guided by the Jewish tradition of welcoming the stranger and inspired by the American democratic ideals of freedom and equality.”

Jack H. Skirball may have been the world’s only rabbi, developer, and philanthropist. He spent nine years as a rabbi but moonlighted as a film salesman and wound up producing nearly 60, most of them short subjects but two of them Hitchcock’s.

Norton Simon Museum, Pasadena
Even if you haven’t visited this museum, most likely you’ve seen it. It stands near the “starting line” of the New Year’s Day Tournament of Roses Parade on Colorado Blvd.

Founded as Pasadena’s art museum, it was facing ruin in 1974 when it agreed to Norton Simon taking it over, paying its bills and installing his own enormous and top-notch collection there.

Simon’s wife, Oscar-winning actress Jennifer Jones, oversaw the museum’s renovation and collection, and an LA Times art critic called Simon the “mercurial Medici of Los Angeles art

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Water water – no where to be seen & fires
As we approach summer, I don’t know about you, but it makes me so very sad that we find ourselves in the position of making choices about cutting down to watering our gardens two or perhaps even one day a week, and the potential loss of our plant materials. We all need to pitch in and do our part to conserver as much water as we can.

Also, about two weeks ago in the course of 3 days, we had 5 brush fires in the Sepulveda Pass going north between the entrance to Bel Air Crest and the north bound on ramp to the 405. It is heart breaking to see the damage.
If you see someone smoking in the Canyon and they toss their cigarette out the windows, honk your horn and ask them to put it out in their car and not on the street or roads.

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What is happening in my world?
I recently had cataract surgery in both of my eyes. When I shared that I was going to undergo this procedure, so many said, “Oh Yea” , I had it and it is so easy, and it is amazing how much difference it makes. They were 1000% correct! I did not realize how bad my eyes had gotten, and my doctors said I really could have waited… so very glad I didn’t.

I know there are some comments about the slowing down of the market, but honestly, I do not see it. In our weekly sales meetings when transactions are being discussed, the numbers simply have not changed, nor am I seeing any difference in my business nor that of my colleagues. As I have talked about in the past, I have a great number of buyers, and if I had the inventory to sell to them, they would be thrilled! The majority of these buyers are obviously impacted by the increase in interest rates, so their purchase numbers are a ”little harder”, but they all still want to buy a new home. I repeat my quest and search, so if you are at all thinking about making a move, or know someone who is, please give me a call… 310-442-1384

I hope you all had a wonderful Memorial Day Holiday weekend.

Talk to you soon

Carole: 310 442-1384

Carole Schiffer, Realtor Coldwell-Banker Residential Brokerage/Brentwood Office 310-442-1384 (office) or e-mail me at carole@caroleschiffer.com www.caroleschiffer.com
CalBRE 00677619
©2022 Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC. Coldwell Banker is a registered trademark licensed to Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC 234567An Equity Company. Equal Housing Opportunity. Owned and Operated by NRT LLC

The post SchifferLine 1 June 2022 first appeared on Los Angeles Realtor - Carole Schiffer.

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Happy Memorial Day — Summer beings May 30
It’s not on the calendar that summer actually begins on this annual holiday, but most Americans think so This three-day weekend which gives us all a chance to taste the spoils of the summer season. Although living in Southern California, especially during our drought, we don’t have to put our raincoats away, we seem to dress like it’s summer every day. Enjoy your Memorial Day weekend and summer….Carole

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April sales and prices — a mixed bag
Higher interest rates combined with a slowdown in the stock market, resulted in a mixed bag of results for real estate in the four communities I report on — Beverly Hills, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, Brentwood, and Westwood/Century City. With the Federal Reserve upping interest rates by ,50 percent at their May 3-4 meeting, mortgage rates climbed to over 5%, which put a drag on some buyers’ ability to purchase a new home. Buyers with cash offers, most often engaged in multiple offers for a scarcity of inventory on the Westside, proved to be the most likely to succeed in getting their dream home. More about this later in this issue.

Median sale prices for 2022 were mixed across the board — Beverly Hills, an expanded area from previous MILS reporting data, was up 15% in MSP at $3.477 million, compared to $3.025 million a year ago at this time. Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was up 65% to $4.090 million compared to $2.350 million in 2021.

However, Westwood/Century City was down 22%, with an MSP of $980 million through April vs. $1.212 million in 2021, and Brentwood was down 5% to $1.980 million from $2.100 million thru April 2022. Santa Monica, another area I cover, was up 13% in median sales price to $3.868 million from $3.400 million previously in 2021.

What we are seeing is a leveling of prices as interest rates are having an impact on buyers’ ability to qualify for mortgages that are now reaching 6% and are expected to go higher and inflation continues to be a factor in our economy.
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Sales volumes also showed a mixed bag
As inventory continues to struggle to meet an intense demand for homes in our area. Multiple offers continue to be the norm today. Beverly Hills led sales with $1.038 billion in sales through April 2022. Bel-Air/Holmby Hills added $377 million, Brentwood had $404 million, and Santa Monica chipped in with $354 million.

Another key indicator of “strength of market” is, of course, Days on Market — how long do properties ’sit’ before escrows open? The median days on market for Beverly Hills was 29 days for April, 35 days for Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, 14 days for Brentwood, 15 days for Westwood/Century City, and 14 days for Santa Monica. The higher-priced homes — in Beverly Hills and Bel-Air/Holmby Hills — generally take twice as long to move off the market.

To sum it all up, we’re seeing how the market reacts to inflation and the resulting Fed rate increases — housing costs are going up, like everything else. Economists expect interest rates to keep moving upward as the war in Ukraine continues, the market drops, and inflation stays at its current height. How high? Some predict 8%, but it is too early to tell….my advice: Buy Now! Interest rates will continue at the current rate and most likely will go higher. If you wait, you’ll look back and think…”I shoulda….”: Also, while the current interest rates are higher than they have been in recent years, they are still lower than they were a few years ago, and unfortunately, we are not going to see the interest rates in the 2% and 3% range again.

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Sellers hit a ’tipping point’ — dropping prices
The share of home sellers dropping their asking prices has risen to a six-month high. The percentage is still low, but the quicker pace of price drops is notable, researchers say.

For the four weeks ending May 1, 15% of home sellers dropped their asking prices, up from 9% a year earlier. More home buyers may be starting to feel priced out by the rapid rise in mortgage rates, which may be making sellers have to adjust slightly. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.27% last week, up from 2.96% just one year ago, Freddie Mac reports.

Meanwhile, the median existing-home price in March was $375,300, up 15% from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Housing affordability is declining as monthly mortgage payments increased by nearly 10%; the median family income increased by just 1.1% in comparison, according to NAR’s housing affordability index, reflecting March data.

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High-end sales still ahead of 2021…that’s good news.
We remain ahead of last year at this time in high-end sales, which are those homes selling for $5 million-plus in the West Los Angeles region.

There have been 368 sales of $5 million-plus so far this year, versus 336 at this time last year, up 9%. Of these, 128 were $10 million-plus this year, versus 117 at this time last year, up 8.5%. Thirty-six (36) were $20 million-plus this year, versus 28 at this time last year, up 29%.

Of those, 19 were $30 million-plus this year, versus 10 at this time last year. , up 90%. Ten (10) of these sales were $40 million-plus, and there were only four at this time last year. There are 111 pending sales of $5 million-plus now, and of these, 29 are $10 million-plus, 12 are $20 million-plus and three are $30 million-plus.

Included in this list of the 36 $20 million plus sales are these locations — eight each in BHPO and Malibu, six in Bel-Air, five in Beverly Hills, four in the Palisades, two in Hancock Park and one each in Sunset Strip, Holmby Hills and Brentwood Yes, we continue our successful marketing of our high-end properties…and why not? We have the most beautiful place in the world in which to live and thrive!
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More markets reached double-digit gains in 2022 Q1
The first quarter of 2022 saw more markets reach double-digit annual price gains than the previous quarter, according to the National Association of Realtors. Seventy % of 185 measured metros experienced such price gains, up from 66% in the preceding quarter.

These increases come as median single-family existing-home prices rose at a faster rate nationally – 15.7% – from one year ago, up to $368,200. In comparison, the year-over-year pace in the prior quarter was 14.3%. Notably, the Southern region of the Country made up 45% of single-family existing-home sales in the first quarter and notched a double-digit price appreciation of 20.1%. Meanwhile, the Northeast saw a climb of 6.7%, the Midwest 8.5%, and the West 5.9%.

“Prices throughout the country have surged for the better part of two years, including in the first quarter of 2022,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “Given the extremely low inventory, we’re unlikely to see price declines, but appreciation should slow in the coming months.” Yun notes his prediction is based on an expectation of further supply for the upcoming quarter, citing that the beginning of the first quarter registered a record-low amount of inventory. He also anticipates other changes.

“Price gains in many smaller, tertiary cities are now outpacing those in the more expensive primary and secondary markets,” he continued. “This is due to buyers looking for less expensive housing and also a result of more opportunities to work from home, making relocation to smaller markets possible.”

Half of the nation’s top 10 most expensive markets were in California, including San Jose-Sunnyvale-Sta. Clara, Calif. ($1,875,000; 25%); San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif. ($1,380,000; 15%); Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, Calif. ($1,260,000; 26%); San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif. ($905,000; 18.5%); and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif. ($792,500; 13.1%). This is encouraging…for homeowners. For buyers? Not so much.

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Inventory supply ‘relief’ may be on its way.
One of the leanest housing markets in history might be putting on some fat. The supply of homes for sale could increase in the next few weeks, according to new data from Realtor.com.

In April, inventory was 12% lower than in the same month last year, the smallest year-over-year decline since the end of 2019. Another reading for just the last week in April shows inventory down only about 3% from a year ago.

“April data suggests a positive turn of events is on the horizon for weary buyers: If the trends we’re seeing now hold true, we could potentially see year-over-year inventory growth within the next few weeks,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com.

The shift in supply is likely due to a slower sales pace stemming from the recent rapid increase in mortgage rates, which has made expensive homes even pricier. The average rate on the 30-year fixed has jumped more than 2.5 percentage points since the start of the year.

New listings were down 0.9% in April compared with a year ago, and the number of active listings is still down 67% from pre-pandemic levels. The growth in supply is being led by mid-sized family homes, as fewer are going under contract despite it being the spring market, a popular time for families to shop for houses.

Higher mortgage rates, combined with record high home prices, have sidelined much of the competition. Home prices are up about 34% since the start of the pandemic. The monthly mortgage payment on a $400,000 home, with a 20% down payment, is now $467 more than it was in March 2020, according to Realtor.com

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Homeowners are delaying needed home repairs
Make no mistake about it, homeowners are not making the repairs they need to make according to Consumer Affairs. We all know, homes are not perfect, and they are often in need of repairs and maintenance. The average home is in need of about $3,150 worth of repairs that haven’t been made yet, according to a new survey of more than 1,000 homeowners conducted by consumer information website Consumer Affairs.

About one in four homes are in need of serious repairs. Forty-five % of homes are less safe due to those neglected repairs, the study finds. The average homeowner waits more than 10 months to make a critical repair on the home.

Some homeowners inherited needed repairs when they first purchased a house. Forty-three % of homeowners say they hadn’t made repairs that were needed when they purchased the home.
The expense is the leading reason homeowners have delayed fixing issues. More than half of homeowners surveyedsay they don’t have much saved up to pay for home repairs. Only 41% of homeowners say they could afford a $500 repair out of pocket, and that percentage drops to 28% for those who could afford a $1,000 repair.

There have been many times over the years of my career, when I have sold a house where the buyer “could not stand the color of the carpet”, and or something in the house needed fixing, only to see when called me a few years later to sell the house, that same carpet was on the floor, or the repair had not been made.

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Speaking of repairs
I think most of you know I live in Bel Air Crest, which is a high fire zone and in the last few days, it has proven to be the case. I was working at home the other afternoon, when I heard the water dropping helio copter over head going back & forth. Yes, we had a brush fire just off the 405 and Sepulveda! After about an hour or so, the LAFD got it out, only to have it flare up again a few hours later, and then when I was driving to work the next day, there was smoke again along side Sepulveda and 405! Then coming home from work that evening, there was another fire being attended to by 5 -6 fire trucks. All of this truly scary and daunting.

Because of the drought, winds and heat, we are in for a long hot summer and the fire we had by my house was too small as the news stations were concentrating on the bigger fires including the tragic one in Laguna Nigel. I am not sure if you noticed, but the flames on the houses were coming up from the bottom and as a result, the homes were burning from the inside out.

I cannot stress enough installing Vent Guards on your homes if you have not already done so. They are designed to prevent what was happening with the homes in Laguna Nigel in that they protect the vents for our homes on the ground as well as the vents by the eaves at the roofs of your home. If you do nothing else, please do this for yourselves. Call me… Carole Schiffer, 310 442-1384 and I will give you their contact information

Also, please make sure your home owners insurance is sufficient enough and you have a plan in place if/when you might need it.

We all have to be prepared for these types of emergencies.

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My “Hot Listing” in Westwood Hills
About 10 days ago, I listed a sweet little home on Veteran in Westwood Hills. It is charming, close to campus and has a fabulous upstairs family room and lovely back yard. It also has 26 steps which is the ONLY way you can get in the house. The house needed some repairs, so the seller installed a completely new roof, drain pipes and gutters, refinished the oak floors, painted the interior, did the termite repair work as well as tented it, and cleaned up the landscaping.

The Sellers & I priced it taking into consideration what they had done, but also the fact that there those “stairs”, and it was on somewhat on a busy street. The first two days it was on the market, we had over 70 people through the house, received 10 offers, most of them from owner users. At the end of the day, we sold it in two weeks, well over our asking price to owner users (I will tell you the price when we close escrow in about 30 days). The investors dropped by the way side. Of the offers we got approximately 50% of the buyers all getting loans, not at all bothered by the new interest rates.

What does this tell us???? There are still a lot of buyers out there, wanting to desperately “buy something”.. so, Sellers, please pick up the phone and call me… 310 442-1384. I expect I can do the same magic for you as I was able to do for the Sellers on Veteran.

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Carole Schiffer, Realtor Coldwell-Banker Residential Brokerage/Brentwood Office 310-442-1384 (office) or e-mail me at carole@caroleschiffer.com www.caroleschiffer.comCalBRE 00677619 ©2022 Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC. Coldwell Banker iregistered trademark licensed to Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC 234567An Equal Opportunity Company. Equal Housing Opportunity. Owned and Operated by NRT LLC

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