Casual Cubs Fan

The End

2014-07-02T23:19:00.002-05:00

Well, in an effort to restart this thing and provide myself a fresh start, I am moving over to Friendly-Confines.com.

Casual Cubs Fan taught me I can do this, maybe tighten up some editing and maintaining a writing schedule but I can do this.

I am still working out a few things but with an impending move to Miami, living in an apartment (no more tasks around the house to do) and just wanting to build something of my own (that I won't fear MLBAM will strike down due to copyright infringement) I am moving on to a new webhome.

There are a lot of bugs to work out and a new hosting system (WordPress vs. Blogger) but I am going to work towards knocking that upstart BN Acehole (haha, I am clever) off his lofty perch.

Thank you and goodbye, Casual Cubs Fan, you have a terrible logo, shoddy writing and a halfway decent site name.

Join me over at Friendly-Confines.com. It's going to not suck. Maybe.

Tigers-Cubs Trade Brewing? and Other Newsyness

2014-03-20T06:00:00.000-05:00

Best wishes and prayers go out to everyone connected to Aroldis Chapman, who was hit in the face with a comebacker last night. Apparently the liner came off a 99-MPH fastball. That'd put the comebacker, potentially, in the upper-90's when it reached Chapman. Scary stuff. Just have to hope that Salvador Perez didn't get all of it and that both men recover just fine (reports were that Perez was shaken up emotionally afterwards).

It's a tough spot for the sport. Pitchers are grossly overexposed on the mound and there isn't sufficient time to react and respond to a batted ball and a great many pitchers leave themselves in a poor position to defend themselves against a batted ball. Thankfully, it is incredibly rare when it happens but it is highly visible and, if Chapman misses significant time, I wouldn't be surprised to see MLB taking some action surrounding pitcher safety. That's what it takes, I suppose.

Bruce Levine is reporting that the Tigers have sent their top scout out to watch Darwin Barney and Nate Schierholtz. Seeing that the Cubs could have a glut of talent in the MI that is roughly equal to Barney and that Schierholtz is in the last year of team control, I could see this trade happening in the Spring. It would give the Tigers worst-in-the-league-last-year defense a huge boost which would greatly help the pitching staff and the Tigers have a hole in the OF to fill along with a glut of pitching talent to send back.
Before you get all in an uproar about Drew Smyly and Rick Porcello (Porcello I could see, maybe, but I doubt they'll move Smyly), just know that those deals are unlikely. Even though the Tigers are pitching rich, they still want every opportunity to win-now. With that said, there are some intriguing arms in the system and I could see the Cubs shooting for one of their top-10 pitching prospects and someone further down the line.
Mike Olt will be playing third base tomorrow. We just never know which tomorrow they are talking about. If his shoulder heals, I highly suspect he will make the Opening Day roster and it might make it easier for them to part ways with Barney this early or if they keep Barney, that might push Bonifacio into more of an OF role. Ahh, the joys of roster roulette brought to you by the 2012, 2013 and 2014 Chicago Cubs.
In that same article, it mentions that Starlin Castro will be playing some minor league games here soon. Why minor league games? The loose rules that would allow the Cubs to bat Castro every inning to get his work in. Hopefully they tell him to take it easy on the basepaths.
In the modern game, Spring Training is entirely too long. Maybe it is some sort of recency bias but it seems like there is a ton of injuries this Spring. It makes sense. Players are using their muscles in a way they haven't for 5 months. For every chased foul ball or diving slide on a steal attempt I cringe. Short of injecting sedatives into these players, they are going to play hard every game, meaningless or not, but I would like to see pitchers throwing softer early in the Spring, baserunners and fielders not going full bore until closer to Opening Day. Sure, it'd hurt the experience for fans but isn't the same thing happening when players miss games in the regular season because of doing too much in Spring?
Jeff Sullivan is doing a positional power ranking throughout the league and he starts at catcher. I'd encourage you not to look. The Cubs come in at 17th. I guess it's not terrible, somewhere near league average, at least. The Cardinals come in at 3 and the Pirates at 12. Thankfully we have depth in the minor...oh, wait. Well, Castillo should be serviceable for a little while longer and who knows, maybe he figures out the pitch framing thing.
The Hawkeyes were elimated from the NCAA tournament. BOOOO FIRE FRAN MCCAFFERY!!! (My fair-weatherness of Hawkeye sports showed here. I had to lookup how to spell his name)
Don't forget, leave a comment. I'd like it (it improves my feelings of self-worth).
Now, the pic/gif/whateverthehellIfeellikeposting of the day, since it's the first day of Spring:

I Can't Allow You To Do That, Theo - Cubs Get a Supercomputer?

2014-03-19T00:27:00.002-05:00

First off, let me give a giant shout out to Mr. Taylor over at BleacherNation.com. There is a less than 0% chance I would have found this unless he did. If you frequent this site, I am sure you frequent there where I am a frequent poster during the day, and I must say, he was the inspiration for me starting this site several years ago.

Anyway, thanks Ace!

According to the CEO of Cray (a supercomputer manufacturer), and as reported by Peter Ungaro over at The Economist, an unnamed team has purchased one of their computers. Furthermore, it is a team that 5 years ago, would have never dreamed of such a purchase. That rules out most teams. Either because they are strident sabermetricians or 5 years ago they weren''t hilariously behind the rest of MLB.

Who does it leave? The Phillies, Diamondbacks, White Sox, Brewers, Dodgers and Cubs (rough thinking here). The White Sox and Brewers have, roughly, the same management as 5 years ago. The Diamondbacks would qualify if he said last week. The Dodgers and Cubs have recently gone under some serious changes at the top in the last 5 years (Cubs more than the Dodgers) and the Phillies have been, what appears to be, trying to undertake some shifting in how they operate. Frankly, the Cubs and Phillies make the most sense but the Cubs have been spending a lot of money on this sort of thing in the past few years. So we will just say they got their own version of Hal.

Neat-o! Now the Ricketts can say they have done something without really doing something, right? Well, let's think about what has been happening the past few years in baseball. Information overload. In the linked article above, and I wasn't able to independently verify this, 95% of all data currently available for teams, has been generated within the past 5 years. That's 95% of the data in 3.5% of the time. Now, extrapolate that over the next 5 years or the 5 years after that. Teams that don't take advantage of every morsel of data that is available are going to be quickly left behind and it seems that computing power may be a market inefficiency that the Cubs might be looking to make a stranglehold on.

So, what could you do with all of this computing power? Well, just given what is available in today's world, you would be able to breakout every pitcher into subcategories and, during a game, utilize the computer to crunch a pinch hitting decision. If you know that Rizzo and Schierholtz are on the bench and that Justin Verlander is on the mound you can break out what type of hitter both Rizzo and Schierholtz are, what kind of pitcher Verlander is and then look up what players like Rizzo and Schierholtz have done against pitchers like Verlander, run a simulation a few thousand times given the current weather conditions and how Verlander is pitching that day and know that Schierholtz is going to provide you a run expectancy that is .00000001 higher than Rizzo.

In addition, with advanced scouting, you could determine that if you put in Rizzo or Schierholtz the opposing manager is likely to sub Verlander for Pitcher X based on that manager's history, current bullpen usage and game situation. In this case, it would spit out that Rizzo should produce .001 more runs than Schierholtz. Lineups could be optimized that way as well, a long with bullpen usage, defensive positioning and grass height. If you know that teams that profile similar to your next series would score fewer runs with shorter grass, by God, cut the grass a little shorter. Maybe the other team fares poorly with a dry infield or the alleys need to be left longer than straight-away.

It could spit that out instantaneously, while letting the FO review trade candidates or amateurs for the draft. Imagine that you could plug in a HS hitters stats and review the players that have come out of a similar league with a similar profile and project future stats/development. Now imagine that same scenario, just with a AA ballplayer and it's the Trade Deadline. Getting the information on a prospect minutes earlier allows more time for debate/discussion and further negotiating.

That's just a brief touch on what can be done with the data available today. What's going to happen when the Field F/X data gets loaded into the system. Now, not only can you load in stats for the hitters, you can enter the information about how the ball leaves their bat which can be used to create more profiles of hitters and how those profiles stack up against certain profiles of pitchers. The 3rd base coach now has more information on when to send the runner. How players perform in certain weather conditions.

Also, I would imagine the Cubs would want this kind of information in their minor league system. Place Pitch F/X and Field F/X in each of the minor league stops and suddenly you have some advanced scouting against rookies and more information that you can analyze when working trades or callups.

It's not just about game performance or trying to determine who the best player should be going forward. It's also about looking for trends within the data. A supercomputer could look at all of the data from 2013, and in the matter of minutes, see if there is a common denominator for why certain players performed better/worse that hasn't been identified. Bill James spent the better part of 30 years creating the various Sabermetric stats we use today. Now, take a box filled with millions of Bill James and more data than he ever could have dreamed of and put it to work. Just spend 10 minutes watching this video from last year's SABR conference and imagine what sort of work could be output in those same 10 minutes if the computing power equivelant to the SABR conference were brought to bear.

Ultimately, we are, probably, talking about the difference of a win over the course of a season that something like this could bring to bear assuming no major breakthroughs. If it leads to another revolution in sports, being the first team to the block could pay huge dividends. All for somewhere south of $5M plus operating costs.

Dear Korean Jesus,
Please let this be the Cubs that bought the supercomputer.

(warning, strong lanugage in this video)

BEGONE INJURY BUG! and Other Newsyness

2014-03-18T06:00:00.000-05:00

If you haven't had the pleasure of watching the new Peabody movie, I highly encourage it. There was enough going on to keep my 4 year old engrossed but it was all pretty tame and there was a ton of adult humor in the movie. Good job movie making people.

On to the Newsys:

Well, the injury bug couldn't keep it's grubby mitts off the Cubs rotation. Jason McDonald we down after two pitches in today's matchup against the A's (they went on to drop the game 6-2). Last season McDonald missed most of the year with a shoulder injury and it's the reason the Cubs were able to get him for so cheap. Back-to-back seasons with shoulder injuries are never a good thing for a pitcher and some believe that shoulder injuries are worse than elbows. If McDonald misses the start of the season along with Arrieta (at least the Cubs are losing lesser tier guys), that leaves the Opening Day 5th starter down to Villanueva and Rusin. Wow.
In the other "game" today, Edwin Jackson pitched 4 scoreless and apparently looked sharp and the Cubs beat-up a Trout-less Angels. 3 hits, 1 walk and 6 Ks are a good sign as we head down the stretch to Opening Day. Jason McDonald's cousin, Darnell, Went 2 for 2 with a walk and a double and Emilio Bonifacio got in on the XBH fun with a triple. Long-time Cubs minor leaguer and general swell dude, got into the game but didn't register a PA.
The big news of the day? I ordered some really sweet dress shoes that will totes...oh, wait...er...
Fo' reals: Javier Baez played second and looked decent enough out there according to Mark Gonzalez at the Chicago Tribune. Remember, the transistion from SS to 2B is more about getting used to different throws than anything else and it showed in a throw in the dirt to Barney for a force out at 2nd. BUT WAIT! HE STRUCK OUT TWICE!!!! SEE HE CAN...oh, wait, he strikes out a lot. After the game, Renteria didn't say something you didn't want to hear about Baez at second:

"It's one of those things we'll work on, and he'll get a feel for the angles and the distances," Renteria said. "He looked fine over there.''

A nice piece by Ray Brewer of the Las Vegas Sun on local-boy Kris Bryant. Something I didn't think of the time, and it may be nothing, but the Cubs sent Bryant to Las Vegas this weekend to, possibly, get some playing time in front of the home town crowd which; hopefully, means the Cubs are a good enough organization to realize how much playing in front of a home town crowd might mean to him. Bully for Kris.
As I get back into the swing of this and learning how to balance work/life/site, I hope to add more in-week pieces besides the Newsys. If you would like me to feature something don't hesitate to drop it in the comments, or heck, don't be afraid to comment. It's easy and fun! Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter, @CasualCubsFan. Oh, and tell a few friends.
Today's pic/gif/whateverthehellIfeellikeposting: Because I am a bit of a science nerd who barely passed Algebra 1, I enjoy YouTube and the myriad of science-y channels. Today's comes courtesy of MinuteLabs:

Splitting in the Desert and Pitching Galore Newsyness

2014-03-17T06:00:00.000-05:00

Huh, that's how they do that.

We have had some interesting weather the past few weeks here in Des Moines. On March 3rd, it was 12 below zero and I had two piles of snow in my yard that were almost as tall as I am. On March 10th, it was 70 degrees and by this last Saturday, it was approaching 50 and nearly all of my snow was gone. Then I looked out my window Saturday night and it looked as if it were the middle of January. Thankfully, I love “extreme” weather (if you can call an inch of snow extreme but it looked blizzard-like out there) so it was neat.

Ok, so if you have frequented Cubs blogs in the past few years or have hung around Twitter, I am sure you all know of Michigan Goat. If you pay attention to him long enough (I try not to, I kid…) you learn that he suffers from Multiple Sclerosis (MS) and the terrible, awful things that come with that.

Kudos to him, he has started a campaign to help increase awareness and fundraise for a cure. Whenever I get a chance, I will be inviting you to take a gander at what he is doing.

· Rusin appears to have been very sharp as the Cubs topped the Mets 6-3. Rusin went 4 scoreless and struck out 2 while walking no one and only giving up a single. Good to see Alcantara and Vogelbach with home runs and at least they got a few more runners into scoring position in this one.

· Speaking of Rusin, Carrie Muskat had a good writeup about the lefty and his diligent efforts to learn and become a part of the rotation. It’s fairly standard Spring Training fluff but it’s a nice read.

· Those left behind in Mesa didn't fare so well. Wood was shaky in the first but managed 8 strikeouts over the 5 frames he pitched. If he can even be 80% of the pitcher he was last year, that will be a huge win going into 2015 and suddenly the rotation isn’t nearly as scary. Brett Jackson BJak’d all over the game with 2 Ks in his 4 PA and a double. It was also a very Cubs offensive game, 0-13 RISP, 10 baserunners but only 2 runs. Oh Cubs.

· Diamondbacks Patrick Corbin left a game recently and an MRI showed damage to his UCL. That means Tommy John surgery is likely (if you ever read forearm strain, just Google Translate that into non-PR speak and it will come out as “Pitcher X left the game to delay Tommy John surgery for a couple weeks while they wait for 2^nd opinions”) and the D-Backs are suddenly out a high profile starting pitcher.

· Impact to the Cubs? The Diamondback *MIGHT* pony up for Jeff Samardzija now. Maybe. Spring Training trades are rare and the Diamondbacks do have a decent staff even without Corbin but if they have a starter or two that isn’t quite where they wanted? Eh, I’m guessing they are going to let it ride. The difference between Samardzija and a replacement level pitcher might be 2 wins between now and mid-June. Which could be huge for the Diamondbacks as they look up to the Dodgers but the price is sky high on Samardzija right now. While Corbin won’t be back to 100% until mid-season next year but they do have Archie Bradley that could make a big step forward this year.

· Speaking of pitcher injuries, ever notice how they don’t seem to be decreasing? Ken Rosenthal noticed the same thing. The problem is two-fold: the first is that pitching a baseball overhand isn’t a natural motion, at least throwing max effort a couple hundred times every 5 days. Sure, humans have been throwing rocks and spears to kill food for millennia, but that is a few times a day or over a week. With pitchers going max effort from the first pitch of the game, that’s a lot of strain on joints that aren’t built for it. Second: No one knows how to avoid them. Teams have tried cutting pitch counts and increasing rest for decades but injuries keep piling up. Pretty much the only thing they know is that you shouldn’t abuse arms.

· Tsuyoshi Wada appears to remain in the mix for the 5^th starter spot out of Spring. But Bruce Levine seems to think that Carlos Villanueva has the leg-up on the competition for the 5^th spot. Villanueva makes some sense but, so does McDonald. They are both candidates for flip at mid-season but I see Villanueva having just a smidge more value than McDonald but a few good starts from him isn’t going to change much where, if McDonald shows some stuff over the first couple of months, they might be able to draw water from the stone.

· From the Tsuyoshi Wada link above…Javier Baez is going to get some work in at 2^nd base this week and, apparently, Baez used to prefer playing 2B (that was until (probably) someone told him a good hitting SS makes much more $$$ than a good hitting 2B). It’s good to see he has some comfort there already. Although, some folks will still wonder why the Cubs just don’t trade Castro already.

· Speaking of Jake Arrieta, Jesse Rogers states that Jake threw a combined 65 pitches between warmup and live BP…and felt good afterwards. That is a positive step but I still don’t see him in big league action until mid-April at the earliest and if McDonald is looking good to Cubs scouts, they certainly wont want to rush it. From here, Jake is scheduled to throw again today, provided everything goes smoothly.

· The pic/gif/whateverthehellIfeellikeposting of today: Jake Masterson proving that pitchers have to be top-notch physical specimens in order to perform well:

Pre-Game Fixin's: More Splitting of Squads

2014-03-16T14:29:00.000-05:00

The Cubs will be doing Split Squad duties again today. Hopefully, the guys in Las Vegas didn’t pound The Strip too hard last night. Mike Olt gets some more game time, albeit at DH. Hopefully we will get word soon that his shoulder is A-OK and he will be ready to go by Opening Day. If not, and he needs a month in the minors (don’t think he would) then we might have to rethink the Service Time discussion.

Also, let me know what you think of the layout. In the regular season I will try to get Cubs lineup, opposing lineup along with handedness of the pitchers for both teams and some basic stats.

Cubs vs. Mets

Stadium: Cashman Stadium, Las Vegas

Time: 3:05 CT

TV: Unknown (I don’t think it will be broadcast)

Radio: Unknown

Lineup:

Darwin Barney – SS (Seriously, why does anyone ever consider him for leadoff)

Ryan Kalish – RF

Ryan Sweeney – DH

Daniel Murphy – 2B

George Kottaras – C

Chris Coughlin – LF

Dan Vogelbach – 1B (Nice)

Matt Szczur – CF (Good luck pulling a DeVoss in CF today)

Starting Pitcher: Chris Rusin - LHP (long shot for the 5^th slot if Arrieta is out to start the season)

Cubs vs. Indians

Stadium: Cubs Park, Mesa

Time: 3:05

TV: CSN Chicago – Commercial Free

Radio: Cubs.com audio feed

Lineup:

Emilio Bonifacio – SS

Junior Lake – CF

Luis Valbuena

Mike Olt – DH

John Baker – C

Ryan Roberts – 1B

Chris Valaika – 3B

Josh Vitters – LF (Interesting that he isn’t playing 3B)

Brett Jackson – RF

Starting Pitcher: Travis Wood - RHP

Cubs Do the Splits, and Other Newsyness

2014-03-16T06:00:00.000-05:00

Today I am trying a new way of typing and uploading these articles. Figured a Sunday works about best and while Casual Cubs Fan is in its infancy. Hopefully, I can type these up on Word and get them on to the Blogger software with ease. Hopefully.

Also, I’d like to introduce someone who is not a sponsor but I’ll be featuring his efforts a fair amount on here and trying to support him the best I can. Well, I won’t bury it on a Sunday…on a new site. Just consider this a tease and I’ll roll it out Monday morning.

ON TO THE NEWSY’S!

I am going to post this here because I feel obliged. I don’t have MLB.tv (I live in Iowa so most Cubs games are blacked out for me) and I have a full-time job with a Wife who is going to Med School. I won’t have a lot of opportunities to watch Cubs games (outside of the non-blacked out WGN games that I am home for and that I don’t have parental/home owner/spousal duties going on at the same time) so I will be relying on a lot of recaps and box scores in my game summaries. Maybe someday I won’t live in MLB Blackout Hell (seriously, Cubs/White Sox/Brewers/Twins/Royals/Cardinals (so up-to 10-20% of games any given day) and I can justify MLB.tv and this will be my full-time gig.
Cubs failed in Las Vegas to the tune of 9-4 against the Mets. Baez wasn’t able to Baez all over the game in Las Baez and for that I will blame the loss solely on him. Cause he should have been able to score 6 times in his 3 PA. He did manage 2 singles but in the only at bat I was able to watch today (dang responsibilities and water galore in my garage) he looked mightily aggressive. Rizzo did mash 2 homers with a walk (please dear God, let him get enough singles this year) and Zeke DeVoss had a stellar diving grab in CF (after stupidly diving head first into first base (seriously, how is that NOT part of The Cubs Way (to not dive head first into first base…that is))). Wada got roughed up along with Rosscup and Grimm. Pimental went 2.2 innings with 4 K’s (noice), so at least it wasn’t all bad on the pitching front. Stat lines of the game: Cubs RISP: 0-1, Mets RISP: 7-17. NEED.MOAR.BASE.RUNNERS (Reminder, this is only Spring and I’m not really freaking out about it…too much)
But the guys who stayed behind in Arizona did fare better, posting a nice-to-see 8^th/9^th inning rally to destroy the Royals 6-5 (yes, I am going to obnoxiously hype up every Cubs victory). Brett Jackson went 2-4 with a home-freekin-run and both of his hits were of the clutch type late in the game. He did have a K (they will always be a part of his game) but that should be expected with 4 PA. This game was the epitome of good luck and sequencing. Typically, when you go 7 for 34 with only 2 walks, you are not going to score 6 runs. But, when you are able to string them together all at once, good things happen. If you get a hit an inning with those two walks…you, likely, aren’t going to get many runs (and you sure as hell aren’t going to get 6 runs). Lake struggled again. The key to him becoming a serviceable CF for the Cubs is making consistent contact. No amount of consistent playing time or a steady position or steady spot in the batting order is going to help him if he is below-league average when it comes to putting the ball in play when he swings. Samardzjia didn’t do himself any favors, either. Two wild-pitches and 4 earned in 3.2 aren’t good.
Well, Kyle Hendricks chance at becoming the latest incarnation of Greg Maddux (cuz, that’s what all soft-tossing Cubs pitchers are (even though Maddux wasn’t much of a soft-tosser)) is on hold…for now, according to Jesse Rogers at ESPN. He was optioned to the Minor League camp yesterday. Not too disappointing. He still has more work to do in AAA and the Cubs have a plethora of arms that will, most likely, be about as good as he could to start the year. Plus, I now get a chance to see him in action.
FYI – I don’t care to link multiple stories from the same author and I originally found the Hendricks story at CSN Chicago by Tony Andracki, but they have an annoying auto-play video in all of their stories. I hate them so I figure you do to and I refuse to share links of people who auto-play videos (unless I have no choice). My tipping point with CSN Chicago was when they had two of the same videos on the same story.
With that out of the way, Rogers has a good article about Justin Ruggiano, Jose Veras and Eric Jokisch. The jist is that each of these guys has done amazingly so far in Spring. The key thing to remember with performances in Spring is that we are dealing with a small sample size. A few plate appearances are going to wildly swing a player’s stat line. Even in Babe Ruth’s career, I am sure you could find a 0-20 stretch where he looked terrible at the plate and hell, for a couple games, Tony Campana had an OPS over 1.000 once…maybe.
In non-Cubs related news, the ISU Cyclones won the Big-12 title game for the first time in a while last night. I’m not a Cyclones fan; however, whenever they do well I feel ok in congratulating them. Good for them. I mean, Baylor wasn’t ranked or anything but, you know, the Big-12 is a BCS conference and they played against other people who knew they were playing basketball and not crochet. (Damn Hawkeyes and their suckiness)
Don't forget, if you are on Twitter, follow me: @CasualCubsFan. And tell a few hundred friends. I'd like it. Also, if you are a graphics designer and don't mind doing work on a tiny (read $0) budget, let me know. I need a logo that DOESN'T look like it's made in Microsoft Publisher. Oh, and if you are a programmer that can handle HTML and something like C++ or Ruby or Pearl or something like that, contact me as well...please. Thanks.

Pre-Game Fix: Cubs Split Squads

2014-03-15T10:44:00.002-05:00

Cashman Field in Las Vegas

Well, I'm heading outside today to take advantage of the Spring weather before Winter comes back and
bites us in the ass a few last times so I am getting this up early and only have 1 lineup for today so far...then again, this is a new feature for me and (thanks to a full-time job) something I probably won't be able to have up-to-date very often.

Bear with me while I figure this out...the format will surely change/tweak as the season wears on.

Split squads are the order of the day. Some members will be travelling to Las Vegas to take on the Mets while others will be making the short trip to Surprise Stadium and the Royals.

Game 1:
Cubs at Mets in Cashman Stadium, Las Vegas
Time: 3:05 CDT
TV Broadcast: WGN
Radio Broadcast: Best I can find is limited to Gameday Audio

Lineup:
Darwin Barney - 2B
Daniel Murphy - 3B
Nate Schierholtz - DH
Anthony Rizzo - 1B
Ryan Sweeney - RF
Javier Baez - SS
James McDonald - LF
Eli Whiteside - C
Matt Szczur - CF

Starting Pitcher - Tsuyoshi Wada - LHP

Game 2:
Cubs at Royals in Surprise Stadium, Surprise, AZ
Time: 3:05 CDT
TV Broadcast: MLB.TV
Radio Broadcast: Best I can find is limited to Gameday Audio

Lineup (I'm guessing here because the Cubs Twitter feed posted this lineup for both games)

Junior Lake - CF
Ryan Roberts - 2B (They are getting a lot of looks at him in Spring)
Welington Castillo - C
Justin Ruggiano - LF
Mike Olt - 1B (HEAL SHOULDER, DAMN YOU)
Chris Valaika - SS (That's a surprise, wonder if Baez is heading north to launch balls on The Strip)
Jeff Vitters - DH (Dark horse for the 5th OF spot)
Brett Jackson - RF
Christian Villanueva - 3B

Starting Pitcher - Jeff Samardzija - RHP

The Records, They Be A Fallin' and other Newsy-ness

2014-03-15T06:00:00.000-05:00

Took the T-Tot (my Son) to the bowling alley last night. Bumpers, a move to a heavier ball and some bad
performance by me meant that T-Tot had a good lead on me through 7 frames. Thankfully, my mechanics came back and I pulled out the victory.

Did I mention I am terrible at bowling?

The Cubs topped the Dodgers today in front of a NEW! IMPROVED! Record attendance of 15,191. Luis Valbuena launched a 2-run blast, Rizzo went 1 for 2 with a walk and Brett Jackson got a plate appearance without striking out! Kyle Hendricks went 3 scoreless with a walk and a hit and Carlos Villanueva, Jose Veras and Alberto Cabrera each allowed Dodgers baserunners to score.
In case you hadn't noticed, Jason Hammel hasn't seen a lot of big league time yet this Spring. That's because, according to Carrie Muskat, he's been spending most of his time pitching in the "B" games. Rizzo gave him some good natured ribbing about not being ready to face big-leaguers (look at that leadership and charisma from Rizzo. Intangibles!) My favorite line from this:

"For three innings, they were swinging at everything," Hammel said. "I made the adjustment, so it gave me the opportunity to start throwing breaking balls early in counts and I was able to throw a lot of stuff."

Sports Illustrated writer Scooby Axson reports that Renteria has confirmed that Jeff Samardzija will be the Opening Day starter again this year. Not sure that is was ever in doubt (unless you are of the bent that Travis Wood is a superior pitcher) but it's out there now. Last year, Samardzija pitched a fantastic 8 innings of shut out ball before getting yanked at 110 pitches. Great way to start the year and hopefully Jeff can get his 2014 off to the same great start.
In equally expected news (we are Cubs fans after-all), Starlin Castro's rehab is taking longer than originally expected, according to Gordon Wittenmeyer. Apparently the fluid buildup on his hamstring isn't clearing up as expected and Castro is only at about 40 percent right now and just one-more week later (hold back the obligatory "There's always next week" joke) until he's back to 100 percent. It's still early enough in Spring Training that Castro has plenty of time to recover but it's something to be aware of as the season progresses.
Maybe I am being obtuse but the most concerning part of the article was that Castro is concerned about stealing more bases. He isn't a player that will ever post 30-40 steal seasons so right now I'd much rather he focus on making consistent contact and driving the ball to get his power numbers up.
A couple months ago Jeff Passan wrote a scathing article about how poorly the Cubs situation and rebuild is and I hated it. Not because I disagree with a lot of it but because it was very poorly written and featured a lot of poorly supported arguments. It was a hatchet piece that used a well worn hatchet. In an attempt to apparently play both sides of the coin, he has crafted a seemingly over-the-top piece about Baez and Bryant. Don't get me wrong, I love it and I think the jist of it is accurate but it's a bit heavy-handed for me.
The Cubs have trimmed the big league Spring Training roster by another 2 on Friday by sending Dallas Beeler and Marcus Hatley to the minor league side. Neither was much of a contender for a job on the Cubs roster so it isn't too disappointing. The roster stands at 54 in camp with 2 full weeks of games left before Opening Day. I wonder if Castro's injury might force the Cubs hand with Baez on Opening Day. I highly doubt it (if I were them, I'd rather run with Logan Watkins (who is in the Minor League Camp now) than burn up some Service Time on Baez.) but it will be a storyline to follow the next two weeks.
Matt Garza wants to kick the Cubs teeth in. I'm guessing he isn't a fan of Clark the Mascot.
Your random pic/gif/whateverthehellIfeellikepostinghere: What happens when a Javier Baez home run ball lands (courtesy of XKCD)

BaseMythBallBustin - Mike Olt and Service Time Considerations

2014-03-14T10:00:00.000-05:00

In what I hope to be the thing I do that sets me apart from the other blogs (yes, please read that in a snooty
English accent, cause that'd totally work), I have a series that is dedicated to busting baseball myths, misconceptions, incorrect thinkings and other, random bits of wrongness folks have about the baseball world.

This episode is going to focus in on Service Time and the implications of that service time. I am writing this really late at night so you are getting the Cliff Notes version...but it should be a good first lesson.

So first, let's define what we mean by Service Time. Basically, any time from Opening Day until the last day of the season that a player is on a clubs Active Roster or the ML Disabled List. It doesn't matter if you get called up and ride the pine for the entire season and see no game action or if you spend the entire year on the 40-Man Roster but recovering from Tommy John.

Simple enough, there are 183 possible days in a baseball season and 172 of those days constitutes a year. Oooookay. I have searched previously for the exact reason for this but laziness and a sense of common leads me to believe this was instituted to keep organizations from witholding a player from Opening Day or optioning them to the minors on the last day of the season to gain a cheap, extra year of control.

Now, teams that are out of the playoff race could easily de-roster their big time prospects for the last month of the season and send them to a minor league team for playoff experience but, generally, teams try to not be overly obvious that they are playing the game to get the extra year of control.

Wait, there is a term I brought in there, extra year of control. A player can only become a free agent if they have acquired 6 years of service. Therefore, if a player gets 5 years and 172 days of service time or more, they become a free agent at the end of that season. It is in the best interest of the team to get their players as close to, without going over, 5 years and 171 days of service time without appearing to look like they are intentionally trying to get to 5 years and 171 days of service time (hence the reason you see teams holding players back until May 1 to call up, it's less obvious).

We now know that you can get close to 7 years of service from a prospect, if you play the game right. How does this fit in with Olt? Well, currently, according to Baseball-Reference, Mike Olt has 0.063 of service time. This is listed as Years.Days so he has 0 years and 63 days of service time. Now, if the Cubs call up Olt on Opening Day and he sticks in the majors, he will become a free agent shortly after turning 31. If the Cubs wanted the option to retain Olt for his age 31 season (he'd become a free agent shortly after turning 32) they have to stay under 0.172 service time this season. That means, they would have to hold Olt in the minors until June 14 which would give him, precisely, 0.171 days of service time (assuming that MLB is using March 31 as the first day they begin calculating the season).

So what about Super-Two? This is a case where the player has accrued, at least, well...shit, I'll just let MLB.com explain it:

A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 22 percent (increased from 17 percent in previous agreements) in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.

Whew. I don't try to pretend to be able to calculate this. Just know that a team avoids their player earning this status by calling up the player sometime after mid-July for players that have no service time and if Olt is avoiding Super-Two status with an extra year of control, we probably won't have to worry about Super-Two with him. But, for the fun of the article, let's explain that.

Ok, so after 3-years (or whatever the hell Y.DDD the above paragraph comes out to, exactly), players are eligible to go through Arbitration. Basically, they start getting paid. Typically, teams and players agree to a salary for the year and no one actually hits "Arbitration". If the player and the team cannot agree to a salary, they present their cases to an independent arbiter who decides if the player or the team made the better argument and pays the player what the winner wanted. So if Player wants $2 and the team wants $1 and the team does a better job of convincing the arbiter they are right, the Player gets paid $1 for the upcoming season.

So, a typical player will get 3 years of arbitration adjusted salaries. A Super-Two player gets 4 years. Here is how it breaks out:

Non-Super Two:

Season 1: Player on Opening Day Roster with 0.000 Service Time - Team dictated salary at league minimum. Ends the year at 1.000 Service Time
Season 2: Ends the year at 2.000 Service Time - Team dictated but, generally, a small bump in pay
Season 3: Ends the year at 3.000 Service Time - Team dictated, small bump in pay
This offseason, the player is eligible for an arbitration hearing to determine his salary
Season 4: Ends the year at 4.000 Service Time - Arbitration dictated, nice raise but far below free agency value
Season 5: Ends the year at 5.000 Service Time - Arbitration dictated, another raise but still below free agency value
Season 6: Ends the year at 6.000 Service Time - Arbitration dictated and getting closer to free agency value

At the end of Season 6, the player, barring an extension, becomes a free agent.

Super-Two

Season 1: Player called up sometime between day 11 and mid-July with 0.000 Service Time - League Minimum (team dictated)
Season 2: Player ends the year at 1.130 Service Time (random number) - Team dictates salary, generally a little over league minimum (Trout broke the record with $1M pre-arb salary)
Season 3: Player ends the year at 2.130 Service Time - Team dictated salary
This offseason, the player is eligible for an arbitration hearing to determine his salary
Season 4: Player ends the year at 3.130 Service Time - Arbitration dictated salary
Season 5: Player ends the year at 4.130 Service Time - Arbitration dictated salary (a raise over the previous year's salary, but still far below full free agency value)
Season 6: Player ends the year at 5.130 Service Time - Arbitration dictated salary - getting closer to free agency value
Season 7: Player ends the year at 6.130 Service Time - Arbitration dictated salary - very close to free agency value
At the end of season 7 (notice, the team gets an extra year), the player has had 4 salaries dictated by arbitration and is now a free agent.

If Olt is on the Opening Day roster (or at any point before June 14) he will go down the first path and become a free agent with somewhere between 6.063 and 6.000 of service time.

Confused? Good...just know that there is no reason to keep Olt down in Iowa to gain the extra year of control just to do it. If he needs some work down there or his injury keeps him sidelined for the whole month of April...then sure, why not. Holy shit, and that was the Cliff Notes version.

The Longest Day - Off Days and Other Newsy-ness

2014-03-14T06:00:00.000-05:00

Things Desperate Baseball Fans Do On Off Days

Even with fake games I hate off-days...especially after 4 months of off days. There should be a law that
requires baseball games every day, and that law should also allow me to sit at home watching those games...getting paid handsomely.

But...here I am, slaving away pounding the keyboard after working behind a keyboard. Oh well...at least, hopefully, someone else gets to read me drone on and on and on about nothing.

So...about that Newsy-ness:

Jesse Rogers reports that Rick Renteria may not be all business. He gave the Cubs a day off from baseball today after "Pushing them a lot". It's easy to forget that baseball players are humans and I don't mind an off day after over a month of straight through baseball activities. There seems to be a lot of Cubs with some minor injuries so taking a breather can never hurt.
Mike Olt had good things to say about his 2-HR night to Rogers. It's Spring Training and we always hear the standard platitudes of "Best Shape of My Life" and "As the Good Feelings Turn" but when a player who was suffering A LOT due to injuries last year and comes back talking about how good he feels, I have hope. If Olt can become a .250/.350/.450 3B with Plus-Plus defense, I can begin to forget about Ramirez. Even if you short that line by .020 points each stop, that is a very good player to have in the pre-arb years.
Welcome home Marcos Mateo. Tony Andracki reports that the Diamondbacks have returned Mateo after a few weeks in Spring Training after selecting him in this offseason's Rule V draft. Mateo struggled to get results in 2010-2011 despite posting a reasonable BB and K rate and is 30. I'm guessing he will be kept in Des Moines for insurance in case the Cubs have a sudden rash of a dozen pitchers hitting the DL.
It appears that this Sunday, CSN Chicago is showing the Cubs game sans commercials according to Paul Banks over at Cubs Den (Wow, I greatly dislike his opening paragraph). Instead opting to show player/manager/coach profiles. Bully for them. (Side note, a scan of CSN Chicago's webpage didn't mention this, but I may have missed it)
Neat-o. The Cubs set an attendance record for Arizona on Wednesday at 14,680. I bet community officials in Mesa are sure glad they ponied up to keep the Cubs around. Man, if only the Cubs didn't greatly benefit from Wrigley Field and could have busted out the move card as soon as discussions over public financing went south.
Giggity! John Arguello over at Cubs Den is hearing that Olt is a near-lock for Opening Day 3B, provided that shoulder is healthy. That is just totes Cubs. A former big-time prospect appears to overcome the biggest issue facing him coming into the season, only to get sidetracked by not being able to do the one thing that no one questioned. If Olt needs a couple weeks on the DL and some rehab time at Iowa (I doubt this but...), does it make sense to keep him down for a bit longer? Do I have another article brewing that this might be leading into? Do I like dumb teaser questions?
Serena Dai over at DNAInfo highlights something us Out of Towners may want to be a bit more aware of. The cops around Wrigleyville are stepping up their efforts to crackdown on illegal parking/fun having/debauchery. I say good for them...if it helps keep crime at bay in a city that is constantly battling the forces of evil.
And now your random picture/gif/whateverthehellIfeellikepostinghere. Apparently, throughout the Cold War, Soviet scientists ran an experiment to domesticate the fox. Turns out, as they bred out wildness, the foxes turned, gradually, into looking like domesticated dogs. Mmm...what would the fox have to say about that?

Mike Olt - Baezing All Over The Mariners, And Other Newsy-ness

2014-03-13T06:00:00.000-05:00

Look, Ma! I remember
how to use this!

Ahhh...Spring Training, the time when Winter is destroyed by the forces of all that is good in the world...BASEBALL!!!!

It's also a time for gross over-reaction for all fans. "ZOMG! OUR PLAYER IS AWESOME!" "DAMN GM GETTING RID OF THIS AWESOME PLAYER!!!!!!!!1!!1!!" And then in mid-May folks can't understand/forget why player X is performing the way they are. It's like dating someone. For the first few months, they can do no wrong...then BOOM, you realize you are dating a horrible, terrible person and curse everyone around you for not telling you.

Or something like that. (Good God, that is A LOT of caps in the opening paragraph)

The Cubs dropped a tough one in 10-innings last night 8-7 to the Mariners. Marcus Hatley suffered the loss by giving up the go-ahead run. Want another bit of evidence that W/L is nearly useless for pitchers? Tsuyoshi Wada gave up 3 runs on 2 hits and 2 walks over 1.2 innings, yet, he was awarded a Hold while Hatley suffers the loss.
Mike Olt, apparently, is having few issues seeing the ball well so far this Spring and went 3 for 4 with 2 home runs. PleaseBeRealPleaseBeRealPleaseBeReal
Carrie Muskat (Note: There is no "r" in the last name) reports that Albert Almora, Jorge Soler, Kris Bryant, Arismendy Alcantara and a host of other Cubs players are heading down to Minor League Camp. Some of the other players sent down include Matt Szczur and Logan Watkins. With Olt appearing to be able to see again and a plethora of infielders in camp, makes sense that Watkins gets sent down. Seems like he should be able to do something when you look at his AAA stats but clearly there is something that is lacking when Cubs coaches are looking at him.
Fun note: Almora, Soler, Bryant, Alcantara and Szczur all got a few at bats in last night.
Brett Jackson is one of the prospects that remains in the Major League camp. You know...that guy who was once the CF of the future of the Cubs that had everyone thumbing their ears at K-rate harpers. I'm cheating a bit by linking another Muskat story, but whateves. Jackson says he is having a good time in camp and he is not trying to worry about his mechanics as much. If you recall, his mechanics at the plate were a big focus heading into 2013. If he emerges as a legitimate 4th OF candidate that can play all three positions, that is an incredible asset to get from him (and would prove Keith Law right, grrr).
Renteria made his first challenge in Cubs history and in typical Cubs fashion...it failed. What else would you expect? I also think that you will find the Umps do a damn good job on the field in real-time.
An excellent, and well-timed, piece from Tony Blengino regarding the value of impact prospects. There is soooooo much goodness in there. I, often, fall into the trap of scouting prospects solely on their stats (my abject railing against Javier Baez last May-June is a prime example) and this serves as a very good reminder that not only is it stats, it's what the scouts see.
Also, the article highlights what many folks have noticed, teams are hoarding their prospects. You can fault the Cubs for not adding impact free agents the past few seasons; however, spending a ton on aging (especially now that players age normally) players to gain a few more wins at the cost of A LOT of prospects at a time where free agent classes are getting worse and worse while still falling well short of the playoffs wouldn't have been smart.
The money quote from that article?

People can talk about the deep pockets of the Yankees and other franchises, but just remember that the last time the Bronx Bombers were on top, they got there thanks to homegrown impact talent – the core group of Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, etc., that made it possible for them to spend their millions on luxuries at other positions.