Casual Safety

Spot Start of the Week: Kendall Wright

2017-09-20T22:57:00.000-04:00

The last two seasons, Kendall Wright has 3 TD each year. He has scored one of those TDs in the 3rd week in each of the seasons. Both games were on the road. Both games were the only game in each season in which he had at least 5 receptions.

His stat lines on those days are as follows:
7/95/1 (12 targets)
8/133/1 (9 targets)

In 4 of his 5 seasons, Wright saw a season high in targets in Week 3. Wright had 10 targets last week. Wright had 7 catches on those targets. He had 2 drops on the last drive for the Bears, which could've gotten him a nice garbage time TD. Wright has a 65% Catch/Target rate on his career, which means he'll keep getting 7 catches as long as he continues to see double digit targets. Let's face it, there aren't many players on the Bears Mike Glennon can feel confident in throwing to that "3rd Down Kendall."

Or maybe last week was his "Week 3."

Fun Facts About NFL Players on New Teams

2017-09-07T12:39:00.000-04:00

Running Backs
Eddie Lacy (SEA) has decreased his touchdowns in each of his 4 seasons in the NFL. Last year he had 0, so the only way he can go is up!

Latavius Murray (MIN) had at least one target in each game last season.

LeGarrette Blount (PHI) had 34 TD in 49 games with the Patriots. He has 15 TD in 51 games with other teams.

Wide Receivers

Jeremy Maclin (BAL) has only played 16 games in 2 of his 7 seasons. He also only has 2 seasons of 1000 receiving yards but has yet to reach 90 catches.

Desean Jackson (TB) has 14 games in his 9 year career in which he had 5 or less catches but 100+ receiving yards. That includes Week 13 2010 when he had 4 catches for 210 yards.

Eric Decker (TEN) has double digit TD in 3 of his 6 "full" seasons. Prior to last season (injuries), Decker averaged 81.5 catches on 126 targets for 1085 yards and 10 TD.

Spot Start of the Week - Week 1: Pierre Garcon

2017-09-06T23:20:00.001-04:00

Kyle Shanahan #1 WR averages 143 targets per season. Pierre is the best WR on the 49ers. Garcon was Shanahan's WR in 2012 and 2013. Garcon led the league in receptions in 2013 and it was by far his best season with 113/1346/5 totals on 181 targets. 113 receptions and 181 targets would've led the league last season (Fitzgerald 107, Evans 173). Garcon averaged 7 receptions per game that year, but around 4-4.5 every other season.

Which Pierre Garcon will come out this year? The Panthers should lead early, meaning Hoyer the destroyer will be slinging the rock somewhere.

Here's some quick hits on Brian Hoyer from 2016:
5 - starts last season (broke his arm in the last one)
4 - 300+ yard games
3 - 2 TD games
3 - over 40 pass games
3 - games in which 3 different Hoyer WR had at least 5 receptions (remember how Cameron Meredith became a thing?)

Prediction - 6 catches, 96 yards, 1 TD

Fun Facts by Player: Round 1

2017-08-29T18:41:00.001-04:00

Running Backs
David Johnson had 10 games of at least 25 fantasy points (PPR) last season. His other 5 games still ranged between 16 and 18 points. Those are the 5 games in which he didn't score a TD. DJ received at least 5 targets in each game prior to his injury in Week 17.

Le'Veon Bell has increased his "rushing yards per game" in each of his 4 seasons. Bell averaged 105.7 rushing yards per game last year. He also averages 6 targets per game in his career with over 75 receptions twice (even in only 12 games last season).

LeSean McCoy has played 16 games twice in his 8 year career. He has over 300 rushes in each of those seasons. McCoy has not averaged under 4 yards per carry in any season. 6 of his 8 years he has at least 40 catches for 300+ yards. He only had less than 50 targets once. Career 78% catch rate.

Melvin Gordon has not started 16 games in either of his two seasons. Gordon had 0 rush TDs in his first season and 10 last year. He averages 37 catches for 305 yards on a season. After having just one game of over 60 rushing yards in 2015, Gordon had 8 (in 12 full games) in 2016.

Devonta Freeman has back to back seasons with 1000 rush yards and 11 TD. Freeman has at least 50 receptions in both seasons. Tevin Coleman is an issue. After 7 games of at least 20 rushes in 2015, Devonta had just 2 such occurrences in 2016. Freeman also had 6 games of more than 5 receptions in 2015, but only one such game in 2016.

Demarco Murray had more games over 100 rushing yards (5) than less than 50 (4) last year. Murray also has at least 40 catches and 300 receiving yards in each of the last 4 seasons, with double digit touchdowns in 3 of those 4 (not the PHI season)

Wide Receivers
*Only 3 guys had 100 or more receptions last year. Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham.....and Larry Ftzgerald*

Antonio Brown has four straight seasons of 100 catches, and has averaged 7.6/100/0.7 per game in those seasons. Brown has at least 5 targets in each of those games. Brown has multiple TDs in 12 of those games, and 10 or more catches in 13 of them.

Odell Beckham Jr. has at least 90/1300/10 each of his 3 seasons. Odell has not received less than 7 targets in a game since his 3rd career game.

Julio Jones max TDs in a season is 10, and he only did it once in 6 seasons (2012). Jones has led the league in receiving yards per game in the past two seasons. His real name is Quintorris Lopez Jones.

Mike Evans has over 1000 receiving yards in each of his 3 seasons. Evans has increased his targets, receptions and yards in each season. He has TD totals of 12, 3, and 12. 10 games of double digit targets last year. Led the league with 173 targets last season.

Jordy Nelson has never had 100 receptions in a season. His last two seasons were 98/1519/13 and 97/1257/14. Has at least one TD in 20 of his last 30 games. 5 games of over 100 yards receiving, and only one of those games he didn't also have a TD.

AJ Green in 2016 had his first season (out of 6) of under 1000 yards receiving (964). In just 10 games played, however. He is still a top tier WR1.

Spot Start of the Week- Week 16: Marquise Lee

2016-12-24T12:27:00.000-05:00

Marquise Lee. The guy on the Jags who was on nobody's radar in the beginning of the season. I consider him a spot start because you're in the championship game and the Jags have lost like 10 straight games, so how do you trust this guy? Well Tennessee has given up the most fantasy points to opposing WR in PPR. I'm starting him even in standard, over the likes of Sammy Watkins and Dontrelle Inman.

Spot Start of the Week- Week 15: Jemaine Gresham and Jeremy Kerley

2016-12-16T15:18:00.000-05:00

Going with two this week, because it's the fantasy playoffs, and if you aren't making crazy spot starts, then you probably aren't winning.

Jermaine Gresham. Facing the Saints. John Brown has sickle cell issues. Michael Floyd just got cut. Gresham has 3 straight games of 5 receptions and 23 targets in those games. Palmer has basically become a check-down QB and Gresham and David Johnson are making the most of it in the fantasy world.

Jeremy Kerley. This one is more of a jafeels situation. I've spot started Kerley on a whim before, back when he was on the Jets. This time, it's more of a game flow thinking. The Falcons could easily make this a 3 score game in the first quarter again, and the 49ers will have to start throwing. Tavon Austin and Kenny Britt each had 7 receptions last week in that scenario. Vance MacDonald got put on IR, and Kerley is the next best thing to catch a ball in the Bay Area (aside from Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree I guess). Atlanta hasn't given up a WR TD since week 9, when Mike Evans exploded on them for 11/150/2 and Adam Humphries added 5/46/1 on TNF. Atlanta has given up 50 yards to a top receiver in every game this year except for Carolina, and I think Kerley is the best bet to reach 5/50 on the Niners. He's probably worth the price when you are looking at low-cost DFS guys.

Thirsty Thursday Tipsy Track - Redbone by Childish Gambino

2016-12-15T18:42:00.002-05:00

He's back. Donald Glover went on Jimmy Fallon to perform Redbone, and he showed what sort of abilities his vocal cords has. And his ability to rock no shirt and a moustache. "Peanut butter chocolate cake with Kool-Aid " might also be the best lyric is a song I've ever heard.

Spot Start of the Week: Week 14 - Taylor Gabriel

2016-12-09T18:09:00.001-05:00

Taylor Gabriel. Julio Jones is beat up. Sanu is out. The Falcons clearly want to make Gabriel a part of their offense. The Rams aren't good. 4 of his last 5 games have produced 15 points. Surprisingly, the only time he has less than 10 points over the past 5 games is this past week, when he received a season-high 6 targets. At least 5 targets in 4 straight, he should be a confident flex play this week in LA. The Rams have had 3 straight games in which they gave up at least 5 catches to 2 different receivers. The Falcons wouldn't have thanked the Browns for nothing. They like this guy.

Spot Start of the Week- Week 13: Sammy Watkins

2016-12-03T13:34:00.002-05:00

Dorial Green-Beckham's start may have gotten boosted by Jordan Matthews injury, but fantasy points are points and you probably were okay with DGB's stat line if you spot started him last week.

Sammy Watkins. Some would say this might not qualify as a spot start. I disagree. Many people are approaching Sammy with caution until he "does something." Well I think you are going to miss out this week on that something. Sammy has slowly and quietly become the healthiest passing option in the Buffalo Bills offense. Charles Clay didn't travel with the team as he became a father and he's generally irrelevant in the pass game anyway. Percy Harvin and Robert Woods are already ruled out of the game Sunday, and Marquise Goodwin sprained his wrist on Thursday. When it comes down to it, the only Bills player you can feel comfortable with in fantasy is LeSean McCoy. Oakland generally gives up yards all over the field, but they should be able to focus on McCoy in this game, and I think Watkins is almost a sure shot at 5 catches and he's the best option to catch a TD.

Spot Start of the Week- Week 12: Dorial Green-Beckham

2016-11-24T10:04:00.000-05:00

Did you guys SEE what the Redskins did to the Packers defense last week? Cousins, Garcon, Crowder, DJax, Reed, all had fantasy-worthy games. And don't forget ROBERT KELLEY, my spot start for last week. Sure, he scored 2 of his 3 TDs in garbage time, but garbage time counts the same and he finished with 137 yards and 3 TDs. Talk about a spot start.

DGB. Guess who gets to rip apart the Packers defensive backs this week? The Eagles. Sure, Carson Wentz is no Kirk Cousins for fantasy purposes, but he has seemed to be looking DGB's way as of late. 2 targets the first week. Exactly 4 in the next 5. 9, 5, 8 in the last 3. And Wentz looks his way near the endzone. DGB is a big target, and the Packers DB's can't cover anyone these days. There was a Pro Football Focus stat showing QB ratings against for each of their DB's. The lowest was still 110.

Spot Start of the Week- Week 11: Rob Kelley

2016-11-18T14:14:00.000-05:00

Last week I killed it in my Yahoo Cup entry. 3100th place out of about 450k entries. I needed that after struggling for the prior 3 weeks. CJ Prosise worked out if you started him last week.

Rob Kelley. The Green Bay Packers, in their first 7 games, only gave up 50 yards or more to a RB once, and that was to Ezekiel Elliot. In the last two weeks, the defense has given up 60 and 123 yards to Frank Gore and Demarco Murray, and 3 TDs to those two combined. Forget the TD that Demarco threw for last week. The week before that, Devonta Freeman found the end zone twice as well. The defense as a whole is a mess, giving up at least 30 points in the 4 losses they have had in the past 5 games. 9 different players have found the endzone on the Packers in the last 3 weeks. This game isn't at Lambeau. I think Kelley could be a good low-value find if you are in need of a fill for Melvin, Devonta or Forte.

Spot Start of the Week - Week 10: CJ Prosise

2016-11-11T13:43:00.000-05:00

CJ Prosise. Here's my thinking. Christine Michael clearly isn't the back they want anymore in Seattle. Rawls might even come back and play in this game. But I'm thinking they are going to be passing in this game, and it's likely they will be trailing the Patriots at some point. So in that regard, Prosise could be a solid PPR play to get you a quick 10 points.

Spot Start of the Week Week 9 - Tyreek Hill

2016-11-06T12:37:00.001-05:00

Tyreek Hill. Is is weird to think that I have more confidence in the Kansas City fantasy offense with all their main guys out? Nick Foles and Charcandrick West are at the helm this week, but get to face a struggling Jacksonville defense. That defense gave up 20 ppr fantasy points to Demarco Murray, Kendall Wright and Derrick Henry each last week. I watched a sports science that broke down Tyreek Hill vs. the Jax cornerbacks and Hill is able to get 4 feet of separation after 20 yards based on his speed. Nick Foles also is more apt to throw the long ball than Alex Smith. He has two 30 yard touchdowns over the past two week, and there is no reason the Chiefs shouldn't chalk up another play call his way this week. Run 'em!

Spot Start of the Week Week 8 - Will Fuller

2016-10-28T15:58:00.000-04:00

Bye weeks can be rough. This week is a tough one with guys like Antonio Brown, Todd Gurley and Odell Beckham on byes. Heck, even the hottest RB in the league, Jay Ajayi is on bye. I'm starting a smorgasbord of players this week. Brandon Lafell, Adam Thielen, CJ Fiedorowicz, who are these guys?

Will Fuller. A few things are true this season. Will Fuller is one of 3 starting WR on the Houston Texans. The Detroit Lions have given up double digit ppr fantasy points to at least 2 different WR in 5 of 7 games this season. Of those 2 games where they didnt, DeSean Jackson had 8.5 points and the other team was the Titans. 4 different WR have reached 100 yards on the Lions. None of those 4 (Jordy Nelson, Eddie Royal, Kenny Britt, Jamison Crowder) have reached 100 yards in any other game. Britt is the only one who has even reached 80 another time. Darius Slay is out, or at least banged up, and he's the only thing stopping a pass downfield. If Osweiler can't throw for at least 250 yards this week he might as well be benched.

Spot Start of the Week- Week 7: Pierre Garcon

2016-10-22T13:33:00.001-04:00

Fiedo came through with a TD last week. He's actually starting to look like a guy you can feel comfortable starting.

Pierre Garcon. Is Garcon considered a spot start? I looked up his ownership in fantasy leagues and he's only owned in 32% of leagues, so I think the spot start distinction can be considered valid. He wasn't owned until I picked him up in my league this week. Anyway, he gets the Lions this week. Kenny Britt put up 136 yards and 2 TD on them. Jordan Reed is already confirmed to be sitting this game out. Garcon has gotten 5 targets per week, but he has just one total TD and a high of 77 yards in a game this season. DeSean Jackson is sort of beat up, but I think if he plays that even strengthens this thought. Darius Slay will cover Jackson, opening the door for more Garcon. Jamison Crowder could also be a beneficiary of this game, so he's also a good option this week.

Spot Start of the Week- Week 6: CJ Fiedorowicz

2016-10-15T16:35:00.000-04:00

Yo but that Sammie Coates though?! Sure he made some ugllyyy drops, but fantasy points don't remember that.

Fiedo. Here's my dynasty league dilemma. My TE are Jacob Tamme, Charles Clay, and Richard Rodgers. Start 2. Gross. I also got a text that said "In a bind at TE. Need a flier. Rudolph on bye. Eifert is hurt." Fiedorowicz is my answer. He has 13 targets, 8 catches, 109 yards and a TD over last 2 games. He gets a mediocre defense in the Colts, and Osweiler isn't a great QB so he leans on TE dump passes. Griffin (the other HOU TE) is in concussion protocol. He looks better than Jacob Tamme vs. Seattle. Look for him to get to the end zone on Sunday night.

Spot Start of the Week- Week 5: Sammie Coates

2016-10-08T13:27:00.000-04:00

Terrance Williams got that TD last week, and his highest point total of the season! I said his PPR floor was 14, well he got 14.4. Numbers don't lie.

Sammie Coates. So I was looking at the waiver wire this week. I feel like everyone is going to want Robert Woods. No more Watkins means Woods right? I don't know, I've used him before and he just never seems to perform. Tyrod Taylor just doesn't put up big games often enough. He has sub-200 yarders too often for my liking. Big Ben, however, just threw for 300 yards and 5 TD. I've told you about how the Jets get beat deep already. What if I told you Sammie Coates has a 40 yard reception in each game this year? Make that a TD and you got double digit points right there. Wheaton is banged up. I'm going Coates.

Spot Start of the Week- Week 4: Terrance Williams

2016-10-01T16:17:00.000-04:00

Terrance Williams is playing without Dez Bryant of the field is the conventional argument. Here's mine. Terrance Williams has his best performance of the season in his fourth week of fantasy.

Here's some stats about Terrance Williams in fantasy football. Hes at 50 games played. His average fantasy points is 9.77 with a median of 8.90. His best fantasy week came in Week 5 of 2013 when he put up 151 yards and a TD, to go along with a 2 point conversion, on 4 receptions. It is fun to note that he didn't play Week 3 that season, so it was in fact his fourth game. His week 4 wasn't too shabby either with a 7 catch, 71 yard game.

Now let's just look at Week 4's specifically. Terrance has had 3 week 4's in his career. PPR totals are 14.1, 25.7 and 13.9. When you consider his CAREER mean is 9.8, Week 4 is the only week you would really consider starting him in confidence. And if we are counting that week 5 of 2013, he has at least 1 TD in each of his "fourth week of fantasy" performances. I say his PPR floor is 14 points this week.

Spot Start of the Week- Week 3: Jamison Crowder

2016-09-24T17:00:00.000-04:00

So I received a group text while going to set up a kickball league. "Jesus Lou" followed by "Lou is the Messiah." What happened guys? Goodwin 84 yard TD, first drive. Now that's a spot start for you. He ended up with 112 yards if you went with him. You're welcome.

I like this guy Crowder. He and Cole Beasley are two guys I would want on any PPR league I'm in. Noone will trade them to me though! Beasley put up 8 catches and 65 yards in the slot vs the Giants. Willie Snead also ripped them up for 5 catches, 54 yards and a TD last week. 4 different WR have put up at least 50 yards on them through 2 weeks, so I don't see it stopping with a guy like Crowder. I also saw Cousins targeting him in the endzone last week, so he's probably a little higher than Beasley on the "likelihood to score" sense.

Spot Start of the Week - Week 2: Marquise Goodwin

2016-09-15T16:08:00.000-04:00

So I receive I text earlier today. It reads "Lou, I need a flier tonight." I'm thinking he means specifically from this game. Let's see, its the Bills and Jets. Well the Jets have a rough defense outside of Revis, and if Watkins is playing, Revis is probably going to be on him. Heck, AJ Green just put up 180 yards on that defense, so is Revis even an island anymore? So I just respond with "you want a flier, Marquise Goodwin." First name I thought of, and usually that's how it works.

Goodwin. This dude is fast. Like 10.24 100 meter fast. 4.27 40 fast. Did you Know: Marquise Goodwin was an Olympian in 2012 and set a NATIONAL High School record in the long jump with 26 ft 10 in in 2009? After reading that, I definitely had to make him my spot start of the week. If anyone is catching a long TD, it's this guy. I've seen Revis get burned by Randy Moss.

Another guy I like this week is Jacob Tamme. He's less of a flier, and facing an Oakland defense that has been known to give up yards, especially to tight ends. I'm starting him this week, you should too.

Spot Start of the Week - Week 1: Terrelle Pryor

2016-09-10T16:13:00.000-04:00

Welcome back NFL. It's been a long 7 months of waiting, but fantasy football has returned and I hope you are just as excited as I am.

Terrelle Pryor. Once a QB, once a Raider. Who knows what this guy is going to do? He's a big bodied athlete on a bad team. I like RG3 this year, and I think the Browns could be a decent fantasy squad. Andrew Hawkins, Brian Hartline. Just a few other notable PPR plays from the past couple of years coming from the Browns. BAD TEAMS THROW THE BALL. Garbage time = fantasy heroes. I drafted Pryor with this idea in mind, so why not start him right?

The Best Misheard Lyrics

2016-08-12T23:24:00.000-04:00

Search "Make me fries" in google. This is why I love the internet.
(for those too lazy, click this)

Potato Wave. I'm gonna leave Bennigan's.

In New Yorkkk, Concrete Jungle Wet Dream Tomato.

Blinded by the light, "wrapped up like a douche" in the middle of the night

There's a bathroom on the right (Bad Moon Rising - CCR)

We didn't start the fire. "It was always burning," said the worst attorney.

Hold me closer Tony Danza.
Hold me close and tie me down sir.

I kissed a squirrel and I liked it, taste of her acorn chapstick

Cut my slice into pieces, this is my plastic fork (Last Resort - Papa Roach)

It's too late, to order fries (Apologize - Timbaland)

Do a little dance, make a little love. Italian Ice.

Give me the beef boys, and free my soul. I wanna get lost in a casserole.

I've got...two chickens to paralyze.

Dirty deeds and the dunder chief.

I'll never leave your pizza burning

GIFs To Get You Over The Hump

2016-03-30T17:12:00.000-04:00

Thirsty Thursday Tipsy Track - Hide Away by Daya

2016-03-24T16:34:00.000-04:00

This song is currently my jam. The beat is great and there's a girl that belts out a great bridge/hook. That's pretty much all it takes for me to enjoy a song (see also, Sia). What really got me about this song is that Daya dances in the music video exactly how I would dance to this song. I might have a new girl crush.

Most Likely Second Round Upsets

2016-03-19T13:29:00.001-04:00

I did pretty well in my last post about the upsets by seed. So I didn't get the 15 and 16 right, but those are toss ups anyway. Michigan was the team I decided on to post about in the 11, but I did mention that I pretty much liked all the 11's. I have one bracket in which the only 2 pieces that I got wrong were Baylor and Michigan State, but I had them both getting to the Elite 8. I'm in the top 98% of ESPN brackets on that one. My UNC-Wilmington call was looking good for the first 25-30 minutes of that game, but Duke pulled through in the high scoring affair. Now on to the weekend to see who gets to the Sweet 16.

#14 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
As I mentioned earlier in the week, this team has won 21 straight games now and is one of the hottest teams in the tournament. They get to face a Notre Dame team that is only favored by 1 point. Don't let the 8 seed spread fool you in this one.

#11 Gonzaga Bulldogs
Gonzaga is a solid team. Utah was the weakest #3 seed in my opinion. That Seton Hall team that Gonzaga just beat was no joke. Gonzaga is favored in this matchup too. The Vegas oddsmakers know what they are doing. You should follow suit.

#11 Northern Iowa Panthers
Did I mention that I like the 11 seeds this year? Northern Iowa was a common upset pick of analysts in the first round. Many even said don't be surprised if they reach the Sweet 16. I'm here to reiterate that after they let Texas by double digits for a stretch yesterday and they clearly have some March magic in them with that last second half-court heave. Bring on another Texas team, see if they care.

#15 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
The nice part about winning as a #15 seed is you get to face, at best, a #7 seed in the second round. Middle Tennessee gets a #10 seed in Syracuse, but I believe that are going to continue this hot streak and pass through the Orange and reach the Sweet 16 (to face Gonzaga).

#8 St. Joseph's Hawks
Everyone pretty much agrees that Oregon is the weakest #1 seed in the field. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if UConn or Providence upset a #1 seed this weekend, however. I'm going with St. Joe's because that's what I picked in my brackets already and I gotta stick by it. I think UNC showed weaknesses vs. Florida Gulf Coast, and Providence would be the other upset I could see this weekend. There's a reason that game is the Saturday nightcap. Should be a good one to watch.

MY PREDICTION IS AT LEAST ONE DOUBLE DIGIT SEED WILL REACH THE ELITE 8.
My expected team to do it is Gonzaga.