Casualty Monitor

British Casualty Monitor: Tracking the war in Afghanistan

2010-03-17T09:10:00.000Z

Duration of war: 8 years, 4 months
Troops in theatre: 9,500
Fatalities at 17th Mar 2010: 275
Casualty data analysed to: Feb 28th 2010
UK military casualties in 2008: 1,924
UK military casualties in 2009: 2,808
UK military casualties in 2010: 228*
Total UK casualties: not released by MOD

The graphs below are compiled from official Ministry of Defence data and illustrate the current situation and recent trends in British casualties in Afghanistan. They are updated every month when data becomes available. We are fully aware of the limitations in the data released by the MOD, its potential to mislead and its incompleteness. Nevertheless, the official data does provide the best available measure of the cost of war to British forces and is useful for following trends in the conflict.

*A full breakdown of casualty figures is provided in the table below.
NB To enlarge the graphs for easier reading click on the images. All Casualty Monitor graphics can also be accessed here.

The first chart provides a monthly breakdown of casualties officially recorded by the MOD as being due to direct action, i.e. fighting. The 3 month moving average indicates the trend in combat casualties. As information was only made available on a monthly basis by the MOD from April 2006, the figures are shown from this date onwards.

The second chart shows the figures for total casualties reported by the MOD. Due to the way the figures are presented in the MOD reports, it is impossible to be sure whether, and to what extent, double counting may be occurring. For example, soldiers admitted to field hospitals may also be classified as serious or very seriously injured, and could also, in principle, be counted in the aero-medical evacuation figures. However, from the publicly available data it is just not possible to know and we therefore present the sum of the different categories. As such, the figures represent the upper range of the official total casualty count. Nonetheless, the data illustrate that from since the beginning of 2006 until now, total casualties may now be approaching 7,000.

The third chart summarises the available data on fatalities and serious injuries since the war began in October 2001. A very low level of casualties is seen following the invasion until 2006, when the conflict and British involvement significantly escalates. The last column of the chart shows the casualties projected for the current year. This extrapolation is simply based on the average number of casualties suffered each week so far this year, multiplied by fifty-two.

Lastly, the table below shows a summary of the available MOD casualty statistics for 2001 - 2009.

Table: Summary of Ministry of Defence Statistics on British Casualties in Afghanistan (October 2001 - February 28th 2010)

	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Fatalities	0	3	0	1	1	39	42	51	108	21
Very-Seriously Injured	0	1	0	3	2	18	23	27	83	17
Seriously Injured	0	0	1	3	0	13	40	38	75	7
Field-Hospital Admissions	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	240	832	1,008	1,229	179
Aero-medical evacuations	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	262	572	800	1,313	209
Totals	0	4	1	7	3	572	1,509	1,924	2,808	433

Source: Ministry of Defence
n/a - Data not available from MOD

British Casualties in Afghanistan - Analysis up to end of February 2010

2010-03-16T13:17:00.002Z

An updated analysis of casualty data for British forces in Afghanistan has been posted, covering the period up to the end of February, 2010. The data presented includes the start of operation Moshtarak.

Estimating the number of civilian deaths from armed conflicts: How to fill the information void?

2010-03-09T13:49:00.000Z

A research paper on estimating civilian deaths during armed conflict has recently been published in The Lancet medical journal. The paper looks at conflict in the Darfur region of Sudan and a new method for estimating civilian fatalities. This involved building a statistical model from the results of surveys that measured mortality and met certain quality criteria. In all, 107 surveys reported mortality data from Darfur between 2003 and 2008 and the researchers were able to include 63 of these results in their statistical model. [The Lancet]

In an accompanying commentary the limitations of the available data and analysis approach is discussed. Checchi points out that although the number of surveys available from Darfur seems large, they included only 16% of person-time at risk. This, he argues, is an indicator of the information gap that remains to be filled in nearly all large scale crises. Further, "..this limitation suggests the usefulness of mapping information coverage in real time to draw attention to regions where information is lacking or outdated, and to coordinate efforts to gather data. A corollary initiative would be to track the number and location of conflict-affected people in real time." [The Lancet]

What is striking is the paucity of mortality survey data collected on the conflicts covered by this site, namely Afghanistan and Iraq, compared to that in Darfur. Between 2007-2009, the period in Afghanistan when fighting escalated markedly, no mortality survey data has been gathered. Attempts to document civilian fatalities rely on case-by-case investigations by organisations such as the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commissions [AIHRC]. Such approaches are almost inevitably going to result in partial coverage and under-estimation of the fatality burden. In addition, fatalities represent just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the total casualty burden, and there seems to be no attempt at all to try and estimate this larger figure in the civilian population.

As Checchi says in his introduction:

"Imagine that you are helping a population cope with the health effects of armed conflict, but have no information about whether their health is improving or not, or whether your programmes adequately address their burden of disease.

...Systematic measurement, analysis, and programmatic use of essential health indicators (mortality rate, prevalence of malnutrition, and coverage of essential services such as vaccination, and water and sanitation) remain the exceptions, despite being predicated in various manuals, policy documents, and meetings."

There are, of course, many reasons why it is so difficult for public health professionals to collect and document information of the health impacts of conflicts such as Afghanistan. However, in cases where initiation of the conflict has been actioned or facilitated by the UK government it must surely have a special responsibility to ensure that reliable data on health impacts are collected and made publicly available, so that humanitarian relief efforts can be appropriately planned. When access by independent scientists is made impossible by insecurity then that role, arguably, should be temporarily assigned to the military. Embedded-journalists are of course notorious for producing one-sided and partial coverage of wars news. Could embedded-epidemiologists, following transparent and internationally recognised approaches produce credible data? Its a big question, but given the massive information gap that currently exists, it must surely be worth exploring.

(NB The side bar links to other key research articles and data sources have been updated, with the removal of some dead links and re-focusing of others on the most relevant pages.)

British Casualties in Afghanistan - Analysis up to end of January 2010

2010-02-17T13:46:00.003Z

An updated analysis of casualty data for British forces in Afghanistan has been posted, covering the period up to the end of January, 2010. The data presented is for the period before the start of operation Moshtarak and so does not capture the recent increase in casualties. Nonetheless, levels remain elevated, as they have been since mid-2009.

The summary statistics for total annual casualties now includes all the data categories that are published by the MoD. These are shown in full in the summary table at the bottom of the post.

Afghan Casualties Increasing in Helmand Province as US/UK Prepare for Major Assault

2010-02-10T09:55:00.008Z

The International Committee of the Red Cross are reporting that even before the initiation of Operation Moshtarak an increase in Afghan casualties is being seen in the affected areas of Helmand Province.

"The current upsurge in military operations in Helmand, particularly in the districts of Marjah, Nadali, Sangin, Nari Saraj and Lashkar Gah, has resulted in a marked increase in the number of casualties requiring emergency medical treatment.

...Over the past few weeks, staff working at the ICRC's first-aid post in Marjah have been seeing increasing numbers of war casualties, although not as many as might be expected given the scale of the fighting. Civilians and injured fighters are finding it more and more difficult to go to places where they can obtain urgently needed medical care, owing to mounting security problems and numerous roadblocks and checkpoints throughout Helmand province. It is especially difficult for people coming from rural areas to reach Helmand's capital, Lashkar Gah, where there are two hospitals. Those who do manage to reach a medical facility often succeed in doing so only after long delays.

The ICRC reminds the Afghan security forces, the international forces and the armed opposition that the sick and wounded – whether they be civilians or fighters, regardless of which side they are on – must be cared for with the least possible delay, in accordance with international humanitarian law. No distinction must be made among them on any grounds other than medical ones."

[ICRC]

Operation Moshtarak: Ministry of Defence warns about expected increase in British Casualties

2010-02-09T10:40:00.006Z

The Ministry and Defence is warning of an expected upsurge in British casualties as a large offensive becomes imminent.

"People should be prepared for British casualties resulting from the upcoming major offensive in Helmand province, Operation MOSHTARAK, which will involve thousands of ISAF troops clearing parts of central Helmand of insurgents, Defence Secretary Bob Ainsworth has said.

While minor operations involving British troops as part of the initial 'shaping' phase of Operation MOSHTARAK have been taking place, the major 'clearing' phase of the operation is yet to begin." [MOD]

Less attention has been given to the expected increase in Afghan casualties, both civilian and combatant. However, large scale population displacement appears to be occurring and British sources are briefing about the inevitability of civilian casualties. [CBC, Independent]

British Casualties in the Iraq War: A summary

2010-01-29T21:11:00.005Z

A summary table of British military casualties during the Iraq war has now been added to the I raq casualty page. The total of the casualties recorded between March 2003 and July 2009 stands at 5,970. It should be noted that data is not complete due to Ministry of Defence delays in publication of figures during the conflict.

British Casualty Monitor: Tracking the war in Iraq

2010-01-29T20:26:00.016Z

Conflict initiated: March 2003
Casualty data analysed to: July 31st 2009
UK military fatalities: 179
Reported UK military casualties: 5,970
Total UK casualties: not released by MOD

Below, we present a series of graphs that show the available official UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) data on casualties in Iraq. The MOD stopped releasing casualty updates after July 2009 which is where our analysis also stops. We hope that making the data available in this format will aid people in understanding the casualty burden experienced by UK armed forces, provide an indication of the trends in the conflict, and also expose the continuing need for the MOD to improve their performance in providing full and accurate information on casualties during conflict. Our ongoing analysis of casualties in the war in Afghanistan is also available.

During the conflicts in both Iraq and Afghanistan, the British Ministry of Defence (MOD) has been reticent in publishing details of British casualties, as well as figures for casualties of other nationalities. Previous efforts to improve transparency and accountability have been documented on this site along with debates in academic journals, and attempts by the mainstream media to ascertain the true extent of the casualty burden. Over the last few years there have been improvements in reporting and the MOD does now publish fortnightly updates of casualties for Afghanistan. However, there are still serious problems with the accuracy and incompleteness of the information they release.

NB To enlarge the graphs for easier reading click on any of the images. All Casualty Monitor graphics can also be accessed here.

The first chart provides a monthly breakdown of casualties officially recorded by the MOD as being due to direct action, i.e. fighting. As information was only made available on a monthly basis by the MOD from April 2006, the figures are shown from this date onwards. We now also know that the data that was provided by the MOD is far from complete, so the absolute figures presented here should be treated with caution. However, what these data are useful for is assessing trends in the conflict.

The 3 month moving average indicates a marked and steady increase in the intensity of the conflict from September 2006 up until the ceasefire agreed with the main elements of the resistance in the south, and the withdrawal of British troops from Basra City in September 2007. British casualties rose steadily up until the withdrawal and then fell very sharply as the fighting abruptly diminished with a small peak associated with fighting in early 2008. Since then casualties have remained very low with no combat fatalities reported since February 2009.

The second chart shows the figures for total casualties reported by the MOD. Due to the way the figures are presented in the MOD reports, it is impossible to be sure whether, and to what extent, double counting may be occurring. For example, soldiers admitted to field hospitals may also be classified as serious or very seriously injured, and could also, in principle, be counted in the aero-medical evacuation figures. However, from the publicly available data it is just not possible to know and we therefore present the sum of the different categories. As such, the figures represent the upper range of the official total casualty count. Nonetheless, the data illustrate that from since the beginning of 2006 until now, total casualties may be close to 6,000. These data are also tabulated below.

This total casualty figure is not necessarily excessive - indeed, a figure of 6,700 casualties was previously reported for the period from the invasion up to March 2006. Interestingly, the data on which this earlier assessment was made is no longer available on the MOD web site.

The third chart summarises the available data on fatalities, serious, injuries and very serious injuries since the war began in March 2003. A marked decline in these casualties is seen following the invasion until 2005. The trend reverses in 2006 and accelerates during 2007. Casualties in 2008 and 2009 have remained very low up to the end of MOD casualty data reporting.

The last graph shows the monthly fatality rate suffered by British troops in Iraq since the invasion in 2003. The risk of death remained under 10 per thousand per year until 2007 when fatality rates climbed sharply, until the troops were withdrawn from Basra. The advantage of viewing the fatality rate, rather than just the absolute number of deaths, is that it represents the actual risk experienced by troops on the ground and is independent of the number of troops deployed. Data on troop deployments in Iraq was compiled from the MOD and Hansards.

Lastly, the table below provides a summary of the official MOD figures on British casualties.

Table: Summary of Ministry of Defence Statistics on British Casualties in Iraq

	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	Totals
Fatalities	53	22	23	29	47	4	1	179
Very-Seriously Injured	14	14	5	11	24	5	0	73
Seriously Injured	32	31	15	21	45	4	1	149
Field-Hospital Admissions	n/a	n/a	n/a	1,302	1,300	778	218	3,598
Aero-medical evacuations	n/a	n/a	n/a	701	603	433	234	1,971
Totals	99	67	43	2,064	2,019	1,224	454	5,970

Source: Ministry of Defence
n/a - Data not available from MOD

British Casualties in Afghanistan - Analysis up to end of 2009

2010-01-26T17:04:00.002Z

Analysis of casualty data up to the end of 2009 has now been posted for British forces in Afghanistan. A new summary data table has been added in addition to the usual charts.

The analysis indicates the marked and sustained elevation of British casualties during the second half of 2009.

Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan Rise to New High in 2009

2010-01-14T16:21:00.005Z

New statistics released by the UN mission in Afghanistan today showed that 2009 proved to be the deadliest year yet for civilians since the fall of the Taliban government in 2001. According to their figures, at least 5,978 civilians were killed and injured in 2009. Afghans in the southern part of the country, where the conflict is the most intense, were the most severely affected.

The UN mission recorded 2,412 civilian deaths during 2009, up by 14 per cent from 2008 when the mission recorded 2,118 civilian deaths. Of the 2,412 deaths reported last year, 1,630 (67%) were attributed to anti-Government elements while 596 (25%) were attributed to pro-Government forces. The remaining 186 deaths (8%) could not be attributed to any of the conflicting parties as they died as a result of cross fire or by unexploded ordinance.

It is worth noting from the above figures that the ratio of injured to dead is only 1.5, indicating that substantial under reporting of injuries has almost certainly occurred.

The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), in conjunction with the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), called on all sides of Afghanistan's conflict to uphold their obligations under international law and minimize the impact of fighting on civilians.

Ms Norah Niland, Chief Human Rights Officer said called for determined efforts by the insurgency to put into effect the Taliban "Code of Conduct" that calls on them to protect the lives of civilians.

She also said "However despite positive trends, actions by pro-Government forces continued to take an adverse toll on civilians; we recorded 359 civilians killed during aerial attacks, which constitute 61 per cent of the number of civilian deaths attributed to pro-Government forces. International and Afghan security forces also conducted a large number of search and seizure operations. These often involved excessive use of force, destruction of property and cultural insensitivity, particularly towards women."

[UNAMA] [Full Report (PDF)]

British Withdrawal from Basra: Impact on Casualties and the Chilcot Enquiry

2010-01-08T20:05:00.002Z

The Iraq War Enquiry has recently heard some details regarding the widely known, but often denied, ceasefire that was negotiated by the British with the al-Mahdi army in 2007. This halted the heavy and persistent rise in British casualties that was occurring at the time. Following the conclusion of the ceasefire the British then withdrew from Basra City at the start of September 2007. The successful conclusion of the negotiations avoided the British having to withdraw under fire.

To reflect this public admission of the negotiated ceasefire the annotation of the graph of British fatalities and serious injuries casualties has been amended. The graph illustrates just what difficulties British forces were experiencing prior to the cease fire and how important those negotiations were in preventing further loss of life. The graph has also been updated on the main Iraq monitoring page.

British Casualties in Afghanistan - Analysis up to November 30th 2009

2009-12-23T07:55:00.003Z

Analysis of casualty data up to the end of November has now been published for British forces in Afghanistan.

The analysis shows the continued elevation of British casualties with a third successive monthly increase.

Over 100 Civilians Die in Baghdad Bomb Blasts

2009-12-08T14:46:00.004Z

A day after the 100th British soldier died this year in Afghanistan a series of coordinated bomb attacks killed more than 100 people in Baghdad.

The attack happened as officials announced that delayed Iraqi national elections would take place on March 6. the series of at least 4 blasts also left around 200 injured. [Times Online]

100th British Soldier Dies in Afghanistan this Year

2009-12-07T20:30:00.004Z

The grim milestone of 100 fatalities has been passed for British forces in Afghanistan this year. The death of a soldier from the Royal Anglian Regiment occurred when he was shot and killed in the Nad-e Ali area of Helmand Province. Total UK casualties during 2009 now stand at over 2000.

US Must Take Responsibility for Investigating Civilian Casualties During Surge in Afghanistan

2009-12-03T14:49:00.006Z

The decision by the US to send an additional 30,000 troops to war in Afghanistan was widely expected. Likewise, the Taliban response. Political debate continues over the wisdom of the US and UK escalation of the war in Afghanistan and what the 'withdrawal' or end of the surge in 2011 actually means. All this takes place in an environment where in which the US is moving to introduce a more direct model of political, as well as military, control of the country.

However, in spite of the intense level of media interest the potential impacts on Afghan civilians of US and UK policy has received less attention.

Amnesty International yesterday called for an effective mechanism for investigating civilian casualties, saying it was urgently needed.

"Amnesty International has called on the US to establish a consistent, clear and credible mechanism to investigate civilian casualties resulting from military operations after President Barack Obama said he would send 30,000 extra troops to Afghanistan.

This is now particularly urgent due to the current lack of accountability and transparency within regular US military forces and civilian intelligence agencies, as well as private contractors..."

'Recent efforts by the US and NATO forces to minimise civilian casualties are a step forward but the US government must ensure that any troops who violate Afghan civilians' human rights are held to account.

'More US troops must not lead to more harm to Afghan civilians.'

Amnesty recognises that anti-government groups, including the Taleban, are responsible for the majority of civilian casualties and injuries in the country, but insisted that this does not diminish the responsibility to offer support to those injured by Afghan and NATO/US forces and to bring those suspected of violations of international humanitarian and human rights law to justice."

[Amnesty International]

UK Escalates Involvement in Afghanistan: 500 additional troops to be deployed

2009-11-30T20:23:00.002Z

Today, the British prime Minister announced a further escalation of the Afghan war with the deployment of an additional 500 troops. In a statement to the House of Commons today Mr Brown said that the extra 500 troops will be deployed in early December, taking the number of British troops in Afghanistan to 9,500. [MOD]

Also today, the death of the 236th British soldier was announced following an explosion in Babaji area of Helmand province. [MOD]

The Cost of War: New report on Afghanistan Released by Oxfam

2009-11-18T13:00:00.000Z

Oxfam have today released a new report on the Cost of War to the people of Afghanistan. To better understand how Afghans have experienced and understand the conflict, eight non-governmental organisations operating in Afghanistan conducted research in 14 provinces in the country.

Their research focused on individual experiences of the past thirty years of conflict, perceptions of the current conflict and recommendations for alleviating the violence and addressing its root causes. This research, while not claiming to be based on a representative sample of all Afghans, aimed to more fully articulate Afghan experiences of the conflict and their aspirations for peace and the future of their country.

A sample of 704 people was asked about their experience of conflict over the last 3o years and the causes of the current conflict. The two leading causes they identified for the current conflict were firstly unemployment and poverty, and secondly, the corruption and ineffectiveness of the Afghan government. Torture had been experience by about 20% and 43% reported having had property destroyed.

Respondents called on the Afghan government to establish the rule of law and stop corruption; on pro and anti government forces to stop harm to civilians and provide compensation; and on the international community to provide effective humanitarian aid, hold the Afghan government accountable, stop interference in Afghan affairs and to establish a regional peace process.

The full report can be downloaded here...

British Casualties in Afghanistan - Analysis up to October 31st

2009-11-18T09:42:00.002Z

Analysis of casualty data up to the end of October 2009 is now on-line for British forces in Afghanistan. The analysis shows a persistently elevated level of British casualties. Although the 3 month moving has declined slightly from September, October 2009 is nonetheless the third worst month for the UK since the war began in 2001.

Since the last casualty update changes in the policy arena have continued apace. Fallout from the Iraq invasion has resurfaced and has been providing a backdrop to political debate on whether to continue the war in Afghanistan. During the last week there has been media interest in the renewed investigation in to the torture and killing of Iraqi prisoners by UK forces, and an apparent rise in birth defects in Fallujah, which may be linked to the deployment of chemical weapons by the US in their assaults on the city during 2004.

Meanwhile, public support for the Afghan war has been shown to be low. In a ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday, 71 per cent of people interviewed it the UK supported a phased withdrawal of British forces from Afghanistan within a year or so, while just 22 per cent disagreed. A majority of respondents also thought the threat of terrorism on UK soil is increased by British forces remaining in Afghanistan (47 vs. 44 %).

Within this context a dramatic change of UK policy was posited. Prime Minister Gordon Brown appeared to announce the the beginning of the end for large scale British military involvement in Afghanistan by signalling the start of a possible withdrawal in 2010.

Referring to a NATO conference planned for early in 2010 he said it could:

"...chart a comprehensive political framework within which the military strategy can be accomplished. It should identify a process for transferring district by district to full Afghan control and, if at all possible, set a timetable for transfer starting in 2010".

Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan: Increase continues through 2009

2009-11-13T09:49:00.001Z

Over 2,000 civilians were killed due to armed conflict in Afghanistan between January and October 2009. The number of fatalities is continuing to increase according to the latest data released by the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). These numbers dwarf the casualties experienced by UK and other international forces.

“In the first 10 months of 2009, UNAMA recorded 2,021 civilian deaths, compared with 1,838 for the same period in 2008, and 1,275 in 2007,” Navi Pillay, the UN high commissioner on human rights, said in a statement sent to the UN Security Council on 11 November by her deputy, Kyung-wha Kang.

“Civilian casualties continue to mount, with hundreds killed every year by armed anti-government elements, government forces, and international forces carrying out both air strikes and ground assaults,” it said.

August was the deadliest month for Afghan civilians, with 294 reported deaths, UNAMA said. Civilians have increasingly been caught in the cross-fire and their basic human rights such as access to health, education, food and shelter have been violated by the warring parties, the statement said.

The report stated that more civilians have died in attacks by Taliban insurgents during 2009 compared to aerial strikes and military operations by pro-government Afghan and international forces. According to UNAMA, 1,397 were killed by anti-government elements, 465 by pro-government forces and 165 by other actors.

However, this was disputed by the Taliban. A purported Taliban spokesman, Qari Yusuf Ahmadi, rejected UNAMA’s findings and blamed pro-government forces for most of the civilian deaths. In reports on previous time periods UNAMA/AIHRC data has indicated more deaths being due to the pro-government forces. The method of data collection used by UNAMA/AICHR and how impartial the analysis is remains unclear.

While estimates of fatalities are important there appears to be no data available on the total casualties suffered by the Afghan civilian population, although this figure will for certain be substantially higher than the fatality estimate. Likewise, in contrast to data on casualties suffered by international forces, there appear to be no publicly available data on casualties suffered by Afghans fighting for the government or for those fighting against the government or the presence of foreign troops.

[IRIN, UNAMA, Casualty Monitor]

British Casualties in Afghanistan - Analysis up to September 30th 2009

2009-11-09T10:45:00.002Z

Analysis of casualty data up to the end of September 2009 is now on-line for British forces in Afghanistan. Released the day after Remembrance Sunday, they re-iterate the growing price being paid by troops fighting in this war, eight years after the initial invasion.

The analysis shows the continued rise in the 3 month moving average of British casualties. Although the figures for September have fallen slightly from August they still comprise the third highest monthly casualties for UK forces since the war began in 2001. The data do not, of course, include the recent surge in fatalities associated with the Taliban infiltration operation against police trainers and ongoing use of ambushes and IEDs.

Since the last casualty update there have been several significant changes in the policy arena with the widely perceived failure of Afghan elections, continuing criticism of the government's support for British forces, mixed messages from the Prime Minister on British commitment, plans for withdrawal of collation forces from large parts of Helmand, and a delay in decision making on strategy from Washington. Clearly, the policy context that underpins the war is in flux. The next few weeks may be critical as decisions are made by politicians on the future of the war and the people who are fighting it.

How Many UK Troops are there in Afghanistan?

2009-10-14T13:28:00.005+01:00

For some time the media has been reporting a figure of about 9,000 for the number of British troops in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, up until today the MOD web site has continued of report the presence of only 8,300. This lower figure of 8,300 is the one we have been using in our casualty monitoring statistics, in spite of concerns about its accuracy.

Today we hear of government plans to increase the number of UK troops to 9,500. Wonder how long it will take the MOD web site will catch up with this latest increase?

Iraq Bomb Attacks Indicate War is Far from Over

2009-09-17T09:15:00.003+01:00

During August, hundreds of people were killed in indiscriminate attacks in many parts of the Iraq. The hundreds of civilian casualties, in addition to major property losses, illustrated that the war in Iraq is far from over for the people who live there and the many foreign troops and mercenaries still fighting there more than six years after the invasion.

"The level of insecurity in Iraq remains high and should not be accepted as somehow 'normal' or unavoidable," said Juan-Pedro Schaerer, head of the ICRC delegation for Iraq. In the governorates of Baghdad, Ninewa and Diyala, many Iraqis live in constant fear for their lives whenever they leave their houses, as anyone could be hit simply by being in the wrong place at the wrong time. [ICRC]

As United States Vice-President Joe Biden visited Baghdad on Tuesday mortars or rockets landed near the US embassy inside the Green Zone. While the US still has 130,000 troops in Iraq, almost twice the number in Afghanistan, US troop levels are due to be reduced to about 50,000 by this time next year. [BBC]

British Casualties in Afghanistan - Analysis up to August 31st 2009

2009-09-16T09:37:00.004+01:00

Analysis of casualty data up to the end of August 30th 2009 has now been published for British forces in Afghanistan.

The analysis shows the continued elevation of British casualties despite the end of operation Panthers Claw on the 27th July. While there has been some reduction from the peak of British casualties seen during the operation, the August casualty levels are the second highest monthly totals since the start of the war in 2001.

Undercounting of Casualties by Omission and Exclusion

2009-09-11T10:44:00.001+01:00

The military death tolls generally reported for in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are notable for two omissions. Firstly, the casualty burden suffered by the large number of combatants fighting against the US/UK/NATO presence are never fully considered. Secondly, the toll exacted on mercenaries working for private companies is usually excluded.

Bernd Debusmann, in a column for Reuters reports, for example, that the US military death toll in the two wars stood at 5,157 in the second week of September. However, to get the true picture he argues that at least 1,360 private contractors working for the U.S. should be added to this figure. There is a growing dependence on private contractors in the conduct of both these wars and mercenaries now outnumber the number of US troops in Afghanistan.

Similar data for British forces seems hard to obtain but these exclusions from official statistics must be born in mind when assessing the human cost of wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan.

[Reuters]

Fighters and Civilians Burned to Death in NATO Airstrike

2009-09-04T10:32:00.001+01:00

A NATO air strike in northern Kunduz is reported to have led to the deaths of dozens of combatants and civilians. A death toll of 90 has been reported with controversy remaining over the what proportion of these were civilians. NATO planes targeted two oil tankers that had previously been seized by Taliban fighters but may have been surrounded by civilians at the time of the strikes. [Reuters, AP, NATO]