Casualty Monitor

Afghanistan: UN Reports Highest Annual Civillian Casualty Rate So Far in 2008

2009-02-19T00:06:00.005Z

The Human Rights Unit of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) reported this week that 2008 saw the highest number of civilian casualties in the Afghan war so far. A total of 2,118 are reported to have been killed which is the highest recorded since the fall of the Taliban government in 2001.

This figure represents an increase of almost 40 per cent compared to 2007, when 1,523 people lost their lives in the conflict.

Of the 2,118 casualties reported between 1 January and 31 December 2008, 55 per cent of them were attributed to anti-government forces and 39 per cent to pro-government forces. The remaining 6% were not attributed. These data contrast with UN reports in 2007 which indicated that NATO led forces were responsible for the majority of civilian casualties.

The vast majority of the civilians killed by anti-government forces died as a result of suicide and improvised explosive devises.

Air-strikes were responsible for the largest percentage (64 per cent) of civilian deaths attributed to pro-government forces, with night-time raids being a continuing source of civilian deaths.

[UNAMA]

British Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq - Analysis for 2008

2009-02-10T09:55:00.003Z

Analysis of casualty data up to the end of 2008 have now been published for British forces in Afghanistan and Iraq.

This latest analysis confirms the continued low level of British casualties in Iraq while fighting continues to intensify in the Afghan war. Updates to these graphs are now being made at 3 month intervals.

British Casualty Monitor: Tracking the war in Afghanistan

2009-02-10T09:51:00.004Z

Duration of war: 7 years, 4 months
Troops in theatre: 8,000
Casualty data analysed to: Dec 31st
UK military fatalities: 137
UK military casualties in 2007: 1442
UK military casualties in 2008: 1857*
Total UK casualties: data not released by MOD

The graphs below are compiled from official Ministry of Defence data and aim to illustrate the current situation and recent trends in British casualties in Afghanistan. They are updated about every 3 months. We are fully aware of the limitations in the data released by the MOD and its incompleteness. Nevertheless, the official data does provide the best available measure of the cost of war to British forces and is useful for following trends in the conflict.

The analysis and format used here is similar to the Iraq casualty monitoring page.

*The figures for British casualties in 2007 and 2008 are the sum of fatalities, field hospital admissions and medical evacuations up to the end of the analysis period.

NB To enlarge the graphs for easier reading click on the images. All Casualty Monitor graphics can also be accessed here.

British Casualty Monitor: Tracking the war in Iraq

2009-02-10T09:48:00.003Z

Duration of war: 5 years, 10 months
Number of troops in theatre: 4,100
Casualty data analysed to: Dec 31st
UK military fatalities: 178
UK military casualties in 2007: 1950
UK military casualties in 2008: 1202*
Total UK casualties: data not released by MOD

Below, we present a series of graphs that show the available official UK MOD data on casualties in Iraq. We hope that making the data available in this format will aid people in understanding the casualty burden experienced by UK armed forces, provide an indication of the trends in the conflict, and also expose the continuing need for the MOD to improve their performance in providing full and accurate information. Our analysis of casualties in the war in Afghanistan is also available.

During the conflicts in both Iraq and Afghanistan, the British Ministry of Defence (MOD) has been reticent in publishing details of British casualties, as well as figures for casualties of other nationalities. Previous efforts to improve transparency and accountability have been documented on this site along with debates in academic journals, and attempts by the mainstream media to ascertain the true extent of the casualty burden. Over the last five years there have been marked improvements in reporting and the MOD does now publish fortnightly updates of casualties for both Iraq and Afghanistan. However, there are still serious problems with the accuracy and incompleteness of the information they release.

*The figures for British casualties in 2007 and 2008 are the sum of fatalities, field hospital admissions and medical evacuations up to the end of the latest analysis period.

NB To enlarge the graphs for easier reading click on any of the images. All Casualty Monitor graphics can also be accessed here.

The first chart provides a monthly breakdown of casualties officially recorded by the MOD as being due to direct action, i.e. fighting. We now know that the data provided by the MOD is far from complete, so the absolute figures presented here should be treated with caution. However, what these data are useful for is assessing trends in the conflict. The 3 month moving average indicates a marked and steady increase in the intensity of the conflict from September 2006 up until the ceasefire agreed with the main elements of the resistance in the south, and the withdrawal of British troops from Basra City in September 2007. British casualties rose steadily up until the withdrawal and then fell very sharply as the fighting abruptly diminished with a small peak associated with fighting in early 2008. Since then casualties have remained very low with no combat fatalities reported since March 2008.

As information was only made available on a monthly basis by the MOD from April 2006, the figures are shown from this date onwards.

The second chart shows the figures for total casualties reported by the MOD. Due to the way the figures are presented in the MOD reports, it is impossible to be sure whether, and to what extent, double counting may be occurring. For example, soldiers admitted to field hospitals may also be classified as serious or very seriously injured, and could also, in principle, be counted in the aeromedical evacuation figures. However, from the publicly available data it is just not possible to know and we therefore present the sum of the different categories. As such, the figures represent the upper range of the official total casualty count. Nonetheless, the data illustrate that from since the beginning of 2006 until now, total casualties may now exceed 5,000.

This is not necessarily out of the bounds of possibility - indeed, a figure of 6,700 casualties was previously reported for the period from the invasion up to March 2006. Interestingly, the data on which this earlier assessment was made is no longer available on the MOD web site.

The third chart summarises the available data on fatalities and serious injuries since the war began in March 2003. A marked decline in these casualties is seen following the invasion until 2005. The trend reverses in 2006 and accelerates during 2007. Casualties in 2008 have remained low. The last column of the chart, when included, shows the casualties projected for the current year. This extrapolation is simply based on the average number of casualties suffered each week so far this year, multiplied by fifty-two.

The last graph shows the monthly fatality rate suffered by British troops in Iraq since the invasion in 2003. The risk of death remained under 10 per thousand per year until 2007 when fatality rates climbed sharply, until the troops were withdrawn from Basra. The advantage of viewing the fatality rate, rather than just the absolute number of deaths, is that it represents the actual risk experienced by troops on the ground and is independent of the number of troops deployed. Data on troop deployments in Iraq was compiled from the MOD and Hansards.

The above graphs are updated at around 3 monthly intervals. For more real time information we recommend Coalition Casualty Count.

Civilian Casualty Monitoring Work in Afghanistan: MOD Targets Human Rights Worker

2009-02-09T00:36:00.006Z

In an apparent attempt to hinder the civilian casualty monitoring work of Human Rights Watch (HRW) in Afghanistan, the British Ministry of Defence have tried to smear one of their researchers, Rachel Reid. [Channel 4, Scotsman, Mail Online]

Reid writes that the MoD "whispered into the ear of the Sun" about about the two meetings she had with a Col McNally at the Nato military HQ in Kabul, and with a nudge and a wink insinuated that they were involved in a "close" relationship. With Col McNally now also under arrest for possible breach of the official secrets act just what is the MOD up and why?

It appears that a recent report from HRW which is severly critical of the US military investigation into the killing of civilians during a 2008 airstrike on Azizabad may be the reason. In a letter to the US Defence Secretary Robert Gates on Jan 15th 2009 they claim the military investigation was deeply flawed, provide detailed analysis of its findings and conclude that weaknesses in the report summary "call into question the depth of the Defense Department’s commitment to institute reforms that would reduce civilian casualties."

The increasing civilian casualty burden in the Afghan war and increasingly pessimistic reports on the chances of a US/NATO victory seem to be making both the US and UK governments more and more keen to control the availability of information. Getting to know what is really happening is clearly not going to be getting any easier. It may well be a coincidence, but interestingly the MOD had recently blocked public access to British military casualty information from Afghanistan. While data sheets detailing casualties in Iraq were still still freely downloadable the comparable information for Afghanistan was password protected for some days. Public access to the information now appears to have been restored.

Plans for Withdrawal of British Forces from Iraq Released

2008-12-10T19:28:00.005Z

Concrete plans for the withdrawal of Britain troops from Southern Iraq and their replacement with US forces were widely reported in the press today. Citing an unnamed defence source, papers revealed that Britain will start withdrawing most of its 4,000 troops from Iraq in March, with plans to leave only 400 personnel by mid-2009. [Reuters, BBC, Guardian]

British Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq - Updates for August - October 2008

2008-11-25T11:13:00.000Z

Updates of casualty data up to October 31 2008 have now been published for British forces in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Updates to these graphs are now being made at 3 month intervals. This latest analysis show a continued low level of British casualties in Iraq in contrast to the recent summer surge of fighting in the Afghan war.

Famine Looms in Afghanistan this Winter?

2008-10-31T07:43:00.002Z

A British defence think tank, the RUSI, is predicting famine in Afghanistan this winter due to a combination of rising food prices and a summer drought.

"While the eyes of the world have focused on violence which is increasingly terrorist in character, an estimated 8.4 million Afghans, perhaps a third of the nation, are now suffering from 'chronic .. food insecurity'," RUSI analyst Paul Smyth said in a briefing note.
"Whatever the effect of insurgent violence on the UN-mandated mission in Afghanistan, it is widespread hunger and malnutrition that will place a greater obstacle in its progress."

More...

UN Investigation Finds US Bombs Kill 90 Civilians in Afghanistan

2008-08-27T19:20:00.005+01:00

From the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (26.08.2008)
"Following reports of large numbers of civilian casualties caused during military operations in Shindand district of Herat province, UNAMA’s human rights team has now returned from a mission to the affected area to investigate these reports.

This team met with the District Governor and local elders yesterday. They also interviewed people from a number of households in Nawabad village who confirmed to us that at around midnight on the 21st August, foreign and Afghan military personnel entered the village of Nawabad in the Azizabad area of Shindand district. Military operations lasted several hours during which air strikes were called in. The destruction from aerial bombardment was clearly evident with some 7-8 houses having been totally destroyed and serious damage to many others. Local residents were able to confirm the number of casualties, including names, age and gender of the victims.

Investigations by UNAMA found convincing evidence, based on the testimony of eyewitnesses, and others, that some 90 civilians were killed, including 60 children, 15 women and 15 men. 15 other villagers were wounded or otherwise injured."
More...

British Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq - Updates for July 2008

2008-08-26T00:27:00.002+01:00

Updates of casualty data up to July 31 2008 have now been published for British forces in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Apologies for the delay in posting these updates, which show a continued low level of British casualties in Iraq in contrast to a surge in the Afghan war.

British Lay the Ground for Major Troop Withdrawals from Iraq

2008-08-15T09:31:00.003+01:00

In a move, apparently designed create the perceptions necessary for a major troop withdrawals of British troops, a senior commander has been talking to the media about improvements in Basra. With the British army struggling to maintain the capabilities to fight effectively in two medium scale campaigns the need to withdraw more troops from Iraq is pressing. [BBC]

Serious Concern Over Rising Civillian Casualties in Afghanistan

2008-08-08T09:27:00.002+01:00

The Agency Coordinating Body For Afghan Relief (ACBAR), which claims to represent 100 national and international NGOs working in Afghanistan, has expressed grave concern about the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan and the serious impact on civilians. They report a surge in the number of civilian causalities caused by all sides, a spread of insecurity to previously stable areas, and increasing attacks against aid agencies and their staff.

Their statement on the Protection of Civilians in Afghanistan can be accessed via www.acbar.org

British Casualties in Afghanistan - Updates for first half of June 2008

2008-07-06T17:42:00.005+01:00

Updates of casualty data up to June 15 2008 have now been published for British forces in Afghanistan. This extra half month update has been posted due to the recent upsurge in UK casualties.

Unfortunately, fatality updates and casualty analysis for the second half of June and July may be delayed until mid-August due to other commitments, but we will update the data as soon as possible. Thank you for bearing with us.

Remembering Iraq on World Refugee Day

2008-06-20T12:58:00.002+01:00

On June 20th it is World Refugee Day [UNHCR]. Amnesty International are calling for notice to be given to the fact that there are now almost two million Iraqi refugees, fleeing murder, kidnap, torture and ill treatment, the majority of which are now living in Syria and Jordan. [Amnesty International]

They point out that international assistance for Iraqi refugees is desperately needed, due to inadequate contributions to UN agencies working with refugees. In May this year, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) made a fresh appeal for increased funding for its Iraq work. Citing a shortfall of $127 million for assistance programmes, they raised the prospect of essential health and food assistance programs being reduced, which in turn may force many Iraqis into further destitution and increase the likelihood of higher malnutrition rates and increased child labour [UNHCR].

To end on a brighter note, Iraqi oud (lute) player Naseer Shamma has raised more than US$ 24,000 for UNHCR's Iraqi refugee programme with a concert at the Damascus Opera House [UNHCR].

British Casualties in Iraq - Updates for May 2008

2008-06-19T08:27:00.001+01:00

Updates of casualty data for May 2008 have now been published by the casualty monitor project for British forces in Iraq. Figures show a continued fall in casualty numbers during this period with no reported fatalities or serious injuries for the second month in a row. British casualties in Iraq are now running at a significantly lower rate than for forces in Afghanistan. A projection for the rest of 2008 suggests that annual UK casualties in Iraq may be the lowest since the war began.

British Casualties in Afghanistan - Updates for May 2008

2008-06-18T10:42:00.001+01:00

Updates of casualty data for May 2008 have now been published by the casualty monitor project for British forces in Afghanistan. Please bear in mind that the data from May does not include the recent sharp upturn in British fatalities.

The trend in combat casualties remained steady between January and April with a suggestion of a slight downwards trend. However, this trend has reversed in May and indications are that the conflict may now be entering a new phase in terms of the casualty risk for UK forces.

Four British Troops Killed in Afghanistan

2008-06-18T09:51:00.005+01:00

In the largest loss of life experienced by British forces so far this year, 4 soldiers were killed by an explosion near Lashkar Gah in Afghanistan yesterday. [MOD]

In the last ten days, 9 British troops have been killed in the Afghan war.

Britain to Increase Troop Numbers in Afghan War

2008-06-15T21:10:00.005+01:00

Within a few days of the deaths of five paratroops in the Helmand province the UK is planning to increase its deployment in Afghanistan. [BBC Online]

Update: The statement by Defence Secretary Des Browne to Parliament on Monday 16 June 2008 can be read here.

US Kill 11 Pakistan Troops in Border Airstrike

2008-06-11T20:20:00.002+01:00

From BBC Online

Pakistan's military has condemned an air strike by Afghanistan-based US forces that killed 11 of its troops as a "cowardly attack". The incident happened inside Pakistan, near the border with Afghanistan, as US-led forces tackled pro-Taleban militants.
The US military confirmed it had used artillery and air strikes after coming under fire from "anti-Afghan" forces. It comes amid rising tensions between the US and Pakistan militaries.

British Death Toll Reaches 100 in Afghanistan

2008-06-09T21:23:00.000+01:00

Three British paratroopers were killed by a suicide attack in Afghanistan on Sunday, bringing the total UK deaths so far to 100.

It is notable that although the war started nearly 7 years ago, almost all the British casualties have occurred in the last three years. Further, while it is the fatalities that make the news, the much larger numbers of injured and seriously injured casualties are hardly mentioned. For example, in 2008 alone, up to the end of April, total UK military casualties are estimated to number approximately 284.

British Casualties in Afghanistan - Updates for April 2008

2008-06-03T12:58:00.000+01:00

Updates of casualty data for April 2008 have now been published by the casualty monitor projects for British forces in Afghanistan. The trend in combat casualties has remained steady since the start of the year with a slight decrease in MOD classified combat casualties in April. However, field hospital admissions peaked at over a hundred in April, the highest level since April last year.

British Casualties in Iraq - Updates for April 2008

2008-06-02T21:19:00.003+01:00

Updates of casualty data for April 2008 have now been published by the casualty monitor project for British forces in Iraq. Apologies for the delay in pasting the April updates. Figures show a marked fall in casualty numbers for this period with no reported fatalities or serious injuries. This appears to correspond to the fall off in fighting in Basra City.

British Casualties in Afghanistan - Updates for March 2008

2008-04-28T13:24:00.001+01:00

Updates of casualty data for March 2008 have now been published by the casualty monitor projects for British forces in Afghanistan. The trend in combat casualties has remained steady since the start of the year. With the increased levels of conflict in Iraq, MOD categorised British casualties are now roughly similar in the two war zones.

Study on US Veterans Describes the Invisible Wounds of War

2008-04-26T09:28:00.000+01:00

On April 17 the RAND Corporation released a study of service members and veterans returning to the US from Iraq and Afghanistan. The 500-page study was titled Invisible Wounds of War: Psychological and Cognitive Injuries, Their Consequences, and Services to Assist Recovery. [Rand Corporation]

They report that since October 2001, approximately 1.64 million U.S. troops have been deployed for Operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom (OEF/OIF) in Afghanistan and Iraq. Early evidence suggests that the psychological toll of these deployments - many involving prolonged exposure to combat-related stress over multiple rotations - may be disproportionately high compared with the physical injuries of combat. Nearly 20 percent of military service members who have returned from Iraq and Afghanistan (300,000 in all) reported symptoms of post traumatic stress disorder or major depression, yet only slightly more than half have sought treatment.

The psychological toll in the Iraqi population must, by any estimate, be orders of magnitude greater.

British Casualties in Iraq - Updates for March 2008

2008-04-25T21:10:00.004+01:00

Updates of casualty data for March 2008 have now been published by the casualty monitor project for British forces in Iraq. Figures show a continuing up turn in casualty numbers, presumably reflecting the increased involvement of British forces in fighting in Basra City.