Cataula GA WX

'Top 10 Tornado Cities'- 7 of 10 in Dixie Alley

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 05:08:00 +0000

7 out of 10 cities are in Dixie Alley, the new Tornado Alley. For the past few years, myself and others have noticed the shift east.

Here's the list from +The Weather Channel

#1 - Huntsville, Al.
#2 - Jackson, Ms.
#3 - Birmingham, Al.
#4 - Tuscaloosa, Al.
#5 - Little Rock, Ar.
#6 - Tulsa, Ok.
#7 - Oklahoma City, Ok.
#8 - Atlanta, Ga.
#9 - Wichita, Kan.
#10 - Nashville, Tenn.

Read more here - http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/top-tornado-cities-2013-20130415

Rain Sleet and Snow coming to Alabama and Georgia

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 20:56:00 +0000

A chance for wintery weather in the deep south will be coming in Thursday night into Friday morning. Get your cameras ready haha.

Best area for accumulation will be in the norther areas of Alabama and Georgia. There is likely to be no accumulation except on elevated and grassy areas in the central areas of both states as surface temperatures will be to warm.

In areas it will begin as a rain sleet mix and may change to snow briefly. In others areas it may begin as a sleet snow mix and change to all snow. Best time of this, from west to east will be between 3 AM and 10 Am Friday morning.

Georgia and Alabama #Derecho Event March 18 2013

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 03:55:00 +0000

Widespread wind damage reports were reported across much of Georgia and Alabama on March 18 2013. There were also reports of Hail varying in size from small to upward of 3 inches.

While this storm system as far as I've seen has not been classified as a Derecho, it does qualify as one. A Derecho is classified as a long lived line of storms causing wind damage for more than 240 miles along most of it's length. Another requirement to meet Derecho qualification is wind speeds of or greater than 57 MPH at points along the path of the storm. I don't have data to back this up, but from following and reporting on many of the storms spawned by this system, I'd say this qualification was also met.

This system caused widespread wind damage from North Alabama where it began to take on the characteristics of a Derecho and lasting into Southeast Georgia. The distance covered is almost double the 240 mile requirement.

Here's a Radar loop of the event

Here's a couple maps showing wind damage and hail as well as a couple tornado reports.

Georgia Drought Update - Huge Improvement - February 28 2013 #gawx

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 28 Feb 2013 20:14:00 +0000

Heavy rains during February some which were record breaking, have wiped out 'extreme drought conditions' in Georgia and the Southeast. However, Pockets of 'Severe drought' remain in areas of Central and East Georgia extending into Northeast Florida. So even though the southeast had some good rain, drought still persists, and it won't take long if dry conditions move in for drought conditions to increase once again throughout the area.

Some areas of Georgia saw record breaking rainfall amounts. One such area was Columbus Georgia where they saw 13.51 inches of precipitation in February, breaking the record of 9.41 inches for the same period. The 'all time monthly precipitation record' of 13.62 inches in December of 2009 still stands.

Here at my location, my February rainfall total is 13.29 inches. Here are some other Precipitation Totals for February across Georgia

Albany   -   8.77 inches
Athens   -   7.66 inches
Atlanta  -   9.02 inches
Augusta  -   9.40 inches
Columbus -  13.51 inches
Macon    -  13.75 inches
Savannah -   9.75 inches
Valdosta -   5.39 inches

Georgia / Southeast drought January 1 thru February 26 2013

February Rainfall thru Feb. 26 2013

Heavy Rain / Flooding Issues for Georgia and Alabama #gawx #alwx

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 21 Feb 2013 14:55:00 +0000

Rain moves back in Thursday Night / Friday Morning. There is the possibility by Late Friday evening .. thundershowers could be in the area but at this time it looks like mainly a rain event. On Monday there is an outside possibility conditions could come together for some stronger thunderstorms in the area. This is something that will need to be watched.

The bigger threat at this time will be heavy rain expected Friday through Tuesday, with flooding issues.

The first round expected on Friday through Saturday will likely bring rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches in North Georgia and 3 to 4 inches in central Georgia and Alabama, with higher amounts possible. Sunday looks like we'll have a short break with the next round of rain coming in on Monday through Tuesday, where rainfall amounts of an additional 2 inches could be in store. Total rainfall amounts for the entire period range from 1 to 3 inches over North Georgia / Alabama and 4 to 6 inches over Central and Southern Georgia / Alabama .

Flooding issues .... With heavy rains in Georgia and Alabama the past 2 weeks between 2 and 8 inches, the ground remains moist to wet in areas. This will not allow rainfall in the coming days to be absorbed quickly. This will cause extra runoff into low lying areas, creeks and rivers and cause them to rise at a quicker rate than normal. Flash Flooding will be likely in many areas including Roads.

Rivers and creeks are currently running higher than normal due to previous rainfall and widespread minor flooding is likely, with isolated significant flooding possible. This is something that needs to be monitored in the coming days.

#Snow Georgia / Alabama Saturday February 16 2013 #gawx #alwx

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 14:51:00 +0000

As I have been mentioning most of this week on my Facebook page [ www.facebook.com/CataulaGeorgiaWeather ], there may be snow in the area. This morning my thinking has not changed. In FACT .. the National Weather Service in Peachtree city is now coming on board toward my thinking from past days. They at this time, 5 AM EST Friday February 15 2013 mention a bullseye of Snow of OVER 1 inch, south of Columbus by 1 PM EST Saturday afternoon. They also say less than 1 inch for areas between Atlanta and Columbus around 10 AM EST Saturday Morning. Timing and placement of this is not exact, so I will be monitoring things to narrow it down and posting it on Facebook and tweeting [ twitter.com/cataulagawx ] it when it snows at my location.. Right now I would say between 6 AM and 12 PM Saturday.

As mentioned above and from looking at data, there is indeed a sweet spot or bullseye in central Georgia. Columbus looks to get around 1 inch, and Macon about 2 inches if numerical data from the NAM-06z run is correct.

Athens Georgia should get under 1 inch and Atlanta just over a Tenth of an inch. There isn't much to go around but there could be more or less depending on how things set up and where. It remains to be seen if snow will accumulate on the ground, it will on cars and other surfaces.

Here's a few images showing 06z NAM profiles and Skew-t's for Columbus, Macon, Athens and Atlanta Georgia.

I first mentiond this on Facebook, on February 8 2013 and on this blog February 11 2013 here Possible Snow for Georgia and Alabama February 16/17

Possible #Snow for #Georgia and #Alabama February 16/17 - #gawx #alwx

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 12 Feb 2013 03:44:00 +0000

At this time models show the potential yet again for snow in the south. Looking at things, this is the best I've seen since winter began. Depending on where the Low pressure develops and where it tracks will have a lot to say in this. With that said, this is not a forecast yet, but only an outlook. 'Right now' it looks like central Alabama and Georgia will see more in the way of snow than areas to the north. Totals range from a dusting to a Half inch in northern areas to an Inch and a half for central areas. Even as far south as Valdosta GA could see about an inch and Mobile Al seeing a dusting.

Here is one of the tools I use to help me figure out what is going on with the weather, whether it be severe storms or winter weather. As simply as I can explain, here's what I see for winter weather this weekend that I mentioned last week. For those that don't care to read all this, at this time models are back on track showing snow in and around our area this coming weekend February 16/17.

SOUNDING/SKEW-T

Red Shows Temperature
Green Shows dewpoint
Yellow shows area of Snow Growth
Blue shows Icing

The scale across the bottom is the temperature scale in Celsius. The 0 [zero] is 32F or freezing. What all this shows is, If there were moisture available during the time shown, in this case around 6 PM Saturday, it would likely fall as Snow. Models do show moisture being available during this time, at this time.

So, what the current GFS sounding is showing is Rain beginning around 12 PM Saturday, changing to Snow around 6 PM Saturday and continuing until about 9 PM. Total accumulation for the local area at this time is about 1 and a half inches at a 10 to 1 ratio , which means for every inch of liquid water, there would be 10 inches of snow. So there's not much here, but hopefully enough to give us a little snow.

Severe weather still on track for Georgia and Alabama Wednesday JAN 30 #gawx #alwx

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 29 Jan 2013 11:31:00 +0000

This was written for my local area and posted on my Facebook page Cataula Georgia Weather. The local area is Columbus and Fort Benning Georgia and Phenix City Alabama. You can use this information for areas anywhere in East Alabama and West Georgia as the system coming through will cover a large area. On with the show....

The exact time is still in question depending on which model you go by and I will continue to look at them for agreement. Still looking like instabilities will increase sometime after 8:00 AM EST Wednesday morning. Regardless of timing, before the main area comes through we may see some thunderstorms in the area some which could be severe with damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rain.

The winds will be gusty during this time 20 to 25 mph and will increase as the expected line of stronger storms gets closer and moves through the area to about 40 mph. Gusty winds like this can cause damage without being associated with severe storms. Stronger winds are likely in any severe storm. I'll also keep a watch for any discrete / individual storm cells developing out in front of the main line. These may become strong enough to bring severe weather to the area before the main line. These type of individual storm cells may also be capable of spawning tornadoes. The greatest threat at this time remains unchanged from my previous posts .. Strong to severe 'damaging winds' are likely and the possibility of a tornado or two. As always, 'not everyone will see severe storms and or tornadoes'.

I'll be looking at this closely over the coming hours for any changes that may increase the severity of the storms. Right now I do have one concern. As the trough approaches that will be bring the storms to the area, it looks to go from a positive tilt to a neutral tilt. This will increase the wind speeds / shear in both the upper and lower levels. At this time the winds are more than adequate for a damaging wind event and a couple tornadoes. Any increase would make this a larger threat. If the trough should go negatively tilted, the wind and shear would again increase even more. This is something that will need to be monitored and I will be doing just that. I'll have another update Wednesday Morning or sooner is needed. ~ ED

As always, find me on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGeorgiaWeather and Twitter before and when the storms strike. I'm there all the time and don't always have time to update the blog here ;) Follow @Cataulagawx

597 US Counties Declared Disaster Areas Due to Drought

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sat, 12 Jan 2013 11:14:00 +0000

usda.gov

WASHINGTON, Jan. 9, 2013—Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack today designated 597 counties in 14 states as primary natural disaster areas due to drought and heat, making all qualified farm operators in the areas eligible for low-interest emergency loans. These are the first disaster designations made by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in 2013.

The 597 counties have shown a drought intensity value of at least D2 (Drought Severe) for eight consecutive weeks based on U.S. Drought Monitor measurements, providing for an automatic designation.

The 597 primary counties designated as disaster areas today correspond to the following states: Alabama, 14; Arkansas, 47; Arizona, 4; Colorado, 30; Georgia, 92; Hawaii, 2; Kansas, 88; Oklahoma, 76; Missouri, 31; New Mexico, 19; Nevada, 9; South Carolina, 11; Texas, 157; and Utah, 17. For more information about the specific state designations, visit the Farm Service Agency's disaster designations page.

Alabama counties declared Disaster Areas Due to Drought are:

Bullock	Cleburne	Henry	Montgomery
Chambers	Coosa	Lee	Randolph
Clay	Elmore	Macon	Russell
Talladega	Tallapoosa

Georgia counties declared Disaster Areas Due to Drought are:

Baker	Dougherty	Laurens	Randolph
Baldwin	Douglas	Lee	Richmond
Bartow	Early	Lincoln	Rockdale
Bibb	Elbert	Lumpkin	Schley
Bleckley	Fannin	McDuffie	Spalding
Burke	Fayette	Macon	Stewart
Butts	Forsyth	Marion	Sumter
Calhoun	Fulton	Meriwether	Talbot
Carroll	Gilmer	Mitchell	Taliaferro
Chattahoochee	Glascock	Monroe	Taylor
Cherokee	Grady	Morgan	Terrell
Clay	Greene	Muscogee	Thomas
Clayton	Hancock	Newton	Troup
Cobb	Haralson	Oconee	Twiggs
Columbia	Harris	Oglethorpe	Union
Coweta	Heard	Paulding	Upson
Crawford	Henry	Peach	Walton
Crisp	Houston	Pickens	Warren
Dawson	Jasper	Pike	Washington
Decatur	Jefferson	Polk	Webster
De Kalb	Johnson	Pulaski	Wilcox
Dodge	Jones	Putnam	Wilkes
Dooly	Lama	Quitman	Wilkinson

[PDF] Drought Disaster Designations Map

[PDF] List of Designated Drought Disaster Counties

Late week system - Severe Weather undetermined Georgia / Alabama

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 06 Jan 2013 20:26:00 +0000

Posted 3:17 PM EST 1/6/2013

Next system looks to come in Thursday and Friday but should see some rain showers before and after. Weather models continue to disagree on timing and strength of system for the local area but as mentioned, at a minimum we should have some thunder in the area.

The GFS is faster with the system and takes it quicker to the north along with the energy associated with it, while the ECMWF is slower and farther south bringing it into the area on Friday.

Still undetermined at this time if there will be any severe weather with this in our area, but will go ahead and 'mention again' the possibility of 'isolated severe' due to the environment associated with this system.

I'll keep watching this and will post again when I know more and closer to weeks end.

Follow @Cataulagawx

Georgia Drought Update - Slight Improvement - January 3 2013

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 03 Jan 2013 15:48:00 +0000

In past weeks a Northeasterly fetch of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has brought much needed rains to the south and southeast, where ripples / shortwaves in the southern jet stream have ejected northward every 3 to 4 days. At this time, the pattern continues with another round of rain this morning in southern areas of both Georgia and Alabama.

Since my last drought report on November 21 2012, some improvement was seen. The main areas to see improvement were in West Central Georgia where Exceptional [D-4] Drought was eliminated and Severe [D2] Drought and D4 pulled back in the vicinity of Athens, Georgia. While improvements where seen, the drought in Georgia remains persistent.

Here's a graphic showing drought conditions in November 2012 on the left and current conditions on the right.

The Drought outlook for the Southeast region of the United States for January through March shows improvement. At this time I agree with this assessment based on time of year. Late fall through Winter is generally the wet season in the southeast and with lower temperatures combined with lower sun and shorter days, is a time for regeneration of soil moisture.

While the outlook is encouraging, the past year [2012] many areas in Georgia ended with a deficit in rainfall. As of December 27 2012, Atlanta saw a deficit of 12.80 inches, Athens 9.73 inches, Columbus 11.48 inches and Macon 13.80 inches.
Here's the current data showing how much rain is needed to end drought conditions across the United States in 3 months. *Note - The end of a drought is defined by a PHDI value of -0.5. Drought amelioration is achieved when a PHDI value of -2.0 is reached.

Temperatures and Precipitation outlooks for the next 6 through 14 days show probabilities of 'both' being 'above average for the southeast US. You can see this HERE

My next Drought post will be in February but I will be Tweeting weekly updates so follow me there .. Follow @Cataulagawx

2012 Weather Year in Review - Georgia and the Southeast

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 31 Dec 2012 13:00:00 +0000

Some of the more interesting weather events of 2012

January 5 2012 - We started the year on a dry note - Georgia Drought Update - January 5 2012

February 14 2012 - Winter Mischief - Winter precipitation Alabama / Georgia - Monday / Tuesday 2/13-2/14/2012

March 5 2012 - Severe Weather - MAP - March 2 2012 Storm Reports - NWS Storm / Tornado survey's

April 27 2012 - Earthquake in Georgia - Magnitude 2.3 Earthquake Appling Georgia April 23 2012

May 14 2012 - We all make mistakes - Well, that was interesting..storms on May 13 2012..Only Human

June 24 2012 - Tropical Storm Debby Dance - Tropical Storm Debby - Track has changed considerably

July 2 2012 - How hot is it ? - Record Breaking Heat in Georgia and Alabama June 29 thru July 1 2012

August 2012 - Tropical Disturbances: To many to choose from during the month, so here is the whole month. August 4 thru 30 2012 Archive *Note: The tropical page linked in many of these posts has no data so don't bother clicking through. It's only used to post current data when storms are active.

September 21 2012 - Still Dry - Georgia Drought Update: Long Term Drought Continues

October 2012 - Hurricane Sandy - Hurricance Sandy Archive *Note: The tropical page linked in many of these posts has no data so don't bother clicking through. It's only used to post current data when storms are active.

November 21 2012 - Last post of the year on Georgia Drought - No Improvement - Georgia Drought Update - I expect the Drought update for this week [ January 3 2013 ] and the beginning of the new year will show some improvement after recent rains.

December 23 2012 - Forecast for Christmas Storms - Christmas Severe Weather Event in the Southeast - December 25 2012 - While the local area was spared again, others in the southeast were not as lucky.

Christmas Severe Weather Event in the Southeast - December 25 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 23 Dec 2012 18:27:00 +0000

Regardless of strength and track of the developing low, at a minimum this will be a 'damaging wind event'. On the extreme side it looks like there will be more than a couple tornadoes to deal with mainly in Central and Southern areas of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and possibly extreme Northern Florida.

If you've followed me long enough you know I won't / don't sugar coat what I see. I want you to enjoy your Christmas but I want you to be aware of the storms that will develop during the day Tuesday in Mississippi and Alabama continuing east through the afternoon into the early morning hours on Wednesday in Georgia. I will remind you that not everyone will experience severe weather and/or tornadoes.

Without getting into technical details [ weather speak ] here's the latest outlook from various National Weather Service office's around the southeast. Click image to enlarge.

Here's the outlook form the Storm Prediction Center on 12/23/12 AM. This outlook will be updated on Monday and Tuesday Morning and throughout the day Tuesday December 25 2012.

I'll be keeping an eye on this for further developments.

Technical details [ weather speak ]- 12z NAM and 12z GFS Severe parameters look strong for Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Northern Florida and a tad weaker [Lifted index and Cape] in East Georgia, still looks more than adequate for severe storms at this time.

Looking at latest data from the 12z NAM and 12z GFS, it appears the system has slowed somewhat. Nonetheless Wind Shear is still quite strong with a Jet Streak of 80+ knots on the 12z NAM and 90 knots on the 12z GFS in the areas mentioned above.

The lifted index on both models is -1 to -3 and approaching -5 on the NAM Late Wednesday night. Cape on the NAM is in the 1500 to 1750 Jkg Tuesday evening and around 750 on the GFS during the same time frame. I suspect a feedback issue here.

I expect backing winds will increase the threat of Tornadoes as time goes on. Also depending on cloud cover and rain or lack thereof ahead of the system the overall strength will increase due to heating allowed. Dewpoints will be in the high 50's to mid 60's and approaching the 70's along the gulf coast adding instability and will be transported north.

Be sure to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

If you're local to the Columbus GA, Ft Benning GA, Phenix City Al area, you can also follow my posts on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGaWeather

Posted 1:20 PM EST 12/23/2012

Another round of Southeast Severe Weather for Wednesday / Thursday 12/19-12/20/2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 18 Dec 2012 21:53:00 +0000

Moisture already beginning to be pulled north from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of this next system. This system is more potent that the one we saw earlier this week move across the south. It also looks to be faster.

Louisiana and Mississippi

Impacts will be felt in Louisiana beginning Wednesday Night moving quickly into Mississippi by Thursday morning. The greatest threat will be damaging winds of 60 mph plus that will accompany a squall line that is expected to develop. Due to strong wind shear and forcing to the surface, it is likely a few tornadoes will spin up quickly. These types of quick spin ups are hard to detect on radar and usually occur without Tornado Warnings being issued.

Outlook for Wednesday December 19 2012

Alabama and Georgia

It all comes down to timing as to what will happen in Alabama and Georgia. If it comes in later than anticipated I expect a more robust system with more widespread thunderstorms some that will turn severe. If it comes in earlier than anticipated I expect some thundershowers and a few thunderstorms. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE SEVERE WEATHER. Just as the storm system Yesterday, It didn't get bad until it was to our south and east.

At this time I expect the main line of stronger storms should they develop to enter the east Alabama area between 12 and 2 PM CST [Thursday] and West Georgia shortly after. This timing is subject to change in the next day or so. We'll just have to keep an eye on this and see what happens. Right now our area is highlighted just as it was yesterday for a 'slight risk' of stronger thunderstorms.

Outlook for Thursday December 20 2012

Follow @Cataulagawx

Monday 12/17/12 Update - Southeast Severe Weather

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 17 Dec 2012 10:30:00 +0000

The possibility of severe storms still exist today for areas in the southeast. Currently [ 5:20 AM EST 12/17/2012 ] seeing some moderate to strong thunderstorms in Southeast Mississippi / Southwest Alabama ahead of the cold front generally heading East-Northeast while the Cold front pushes east.

Radar at 5:20 AM EST

The only thing at this time I see limiting stronger storms developing, some possibly severe, is instability and moisture available ahead of the front. This lack of instability will be on the increase. By early afternoon / mid day Georgia should see storms some of which 'will be severe' begin to fire off. As always, 'Not everyone will see severe weather. I don't think there is enough time this morning for severe storms to break out in south-central Alabama, but may see some later in East Alabama / West Georgia. At the least should see isolated thunderstorms in these areas as morning pushes on. All of this will eventually make it's way to South Carolina later today.

As mentioned the past few days the greatest threat will be 'Damaging winds' associated with the stronger storms. We'll have to keep an eye on things this afternoon onward for the potential for an isolated tornado as well as hail.

Here's the outlook for today issued by the SPC 'valid at 12z - 7 AM EST' this morning. [click image to embiggen]

I likely wont be posting further updates on this here. Be sure to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Southeast Severe Weather December 16 2012 - Outlook for severe 12-19 / 12-20-12

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 16 Dec 2012 17:55:00 +0000

Rain / Storms still on track. As mentioned yesterday - "On Sunday the possibility of severe storms increase and continues into the overnight into Monday." Main threat still continues to be Damaging winds with stronger storms should they develop. However, due to the setup a LOW threat of a tornado is still present. Not everyone will see severe weather or a tornado. [ Note: Another round of storms expected around Wednesday / Thursday - See below graphic ]

Here's what the SPC has outlined for today into Monday Morning at this time...

And Monday morning thru Tuesday Morning at this time...

Here's the areas being watched at this time [Sunday afternoon] for possible severe weather on Wednesday Day 4 and Thursday Day 5. At this time the setup is looking interesting and if models remain consistent severe storms should develop in or around these areas.

Don't forget to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Possibility of Southeast Severe Weather Saturday thru Monday - December 15 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sat, 15 Dec 2012 10:01:00 +0000

It seems our Second Severe Season has arrived albeit a bit late. Normally the fall severe weather begins in Mid to late November in the southeast. November this year was quite with the exception of a potential severe weather event in the southeast that never materialized during the Nov. 11^th thru 13^th time frame. If you were around this past week you may recall the Storms and Tornadoes in the Southeast on December 10 2012. on with the show ...

This coming bout of potential Severe weather will begin Late Saturday in the ARK-LA-MISS area shifting east with time into Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida. There remains uncertainty with the system as to timing and how strong storms may become due to how strong the upper level low pressure expected to develop in the northern tiers of this region becomes. The stronger the ULL, the more moisture it will pull north from the Gulf of Mexico into an already somewhat unstable air mass closer to the coast and extending northward. Regardless, am expecting some strong storms with isolated severe at this time throughout the region beginning today thru Monday again spreading west to east. Right now [4:48 AM 12/15/2012] confidence is somewhat LOW to the severe side based on how much cloud cover and rain occurs ahead of the frontal system in the warm sector.

Threats with this system will be in the form of Isolated strong to severe storms with the potential for a few Tornadoes with stronger storms possible. While the threat of tornadoes looks low at this time, a couple can't be entirely ruled out due to increasing shear layer to layer which may became surface based over time supporting Bowing Line areas capable of Damaging Straight Line winds and Isolated Supercells which may spawn a Tornado. There is also a threat of Flash Flooding in areas with 1 to 2 inches of rain expected. As always .. not everyone will experience severe storms.

Today through Tomorrow morning the main threat will be the possibility of Damaging winds associated with strong thunderstorms that may develop generally in the afternoon and evening hours continuing through the overnight. ... On Sunday the possibility of severe storms increase and continues into the overnight into Monday. On Sunday the Storm Prediction Center at this time [4:48 AM 12/15/2012] has an area highlighted for an elevated risk for strong to severe storms. We'll see how this area looks later today for possible increase in severity or even a decrease. For now here is what they have for Sunday Morning through Monday Morning. [click image to embiggen]

Here's the anticipated Rain Amounts Today through Tuesday Morning

Storm Reports - Southeast Severe Weather on December 10 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 14:29:00 +0000

See Side Note at bottom

Storm and Tornado reports from Monday's Severe Weather event December 10 2012

Here's the lead up to this event posted Monday 12/10/12

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Storm Warnings / Reports issued

Storm report Links [ Links open in New tab / window ]

Tornado Damage on December 10th, 2012 Birmingham (Jefferson) EF-1 Tornado via National Weather Service Birmingham, AL

Tornadic Debris Signature - 0.5 degree correlation coefficient (CC) of Dual Pol from KBMX. There are 3 images in this loop. Notice the "explosion" of CC just east of I-65 on the last two images. This is called a Tornadic Debris Signature or TDS.

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Severe Weather Event December 10, 2012 via National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge Louisiana

Walthall County Louisiana Tornado - KLIX Storm Relative Velocity at maximum intensity at 816 AM CST 12/10/2012

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December 9-10, 2012 Tornadoes Mississippi via National Weather Service Jackson, MS

Marion County Tornado - These images from the Brandon, MS doppler radar show the tornadic thunderstorm at 8:20 am as the tornado passed near Columbia. The image on the left shows 0.5° base reflectivity data, and the image on the right shows 0.5° storm relative velocity data.

++++++

Side note : An active weather pattern continues next week and the following week. Next week may bring some interesting winter weather to the deep southeast per current models or severe storms depending where you're at. Still a lot of uncertainty in this forecast as models continue to flip flop on final outcome. Computer models should have a better idea this weekend and I'll post an update then. ~ Ed

Follow @Cataulagawx

Update - Southeast Severe Weather Outlook - 8 AM EST 12/10/12

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 10 Dec 2012 13:43:00 +0000

Severe storms began to fire up in Alabama and Mississippi around 5 AM EST and continue in Mississippi at this time 8:24 AM EST 12/10/2012.

The outlook for the late morning, early afternoon remains about the same as my earlier report. The main threat is strong damaging winds associated with the line of showers and storms ahead of the cold front currently in Mississippi. A 'tornado or two can't be ruled out later as numerous Tornado warnings have been issued today. The severe storms at this time are in South central Mississippi and South east Louisiana.

Throughout the remainder of the day this line of storms 'should weaken' as it pushes east into central and south Alabama and continues into Central and south Georgia. As stated, it 'should weaken' but bears keeping an eye on as it won't take much heating for instability to increase later and combined with adequate wind shear strong storms may develop once again. While my thinking is it will weaken and severe storms will be limited, a few isolated strong storms are possible given the moist unstable environment.

Follow @Cataulagawx

Possible Severe Storms Monday December 10 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 10 Dec 2012 08:26:00 +0000

Good morning, Here's the weather outlook for Alabama and Georgia today.

Rain will be moving in today with Thunderstorms in the afternoon through the evening. There is still the possibility some of the storms could be severe. Not everyone will see severe weather. There is also a slim chance one of these strong storms could spin up a brief tornado, but the chances of that are very LOW. This is due to adequate wind shear in the upper levels. Outside of a possible tornado, the biggest threat at this time will be damaging winds with stronger thunderstorms. Not everyone will see this.

Check the Radar Page for current scans.

Rain could also be heavy at times, but I'm not anticipating a drought buster by any means. Rainfall amounts should be under a half inch. Cooler air moves in during and behind the rain with highs in the 50's to about Thursday, then a slight warm up before the next system arrives this coming weekend.

The next outlook from the Storm Prediction Center will be released this morning at 8 AM EST. I'll try and update you sometime this afternoon. ~ Ed Quinn

No Improvement - Georgia Drought Update - November 21 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 21 Nov 2012 19:15:00 +0000

Don't let the cooler weather fool you. Lack of rain in Georgia increases drought coverage and intensity.

Since my last Drought Update November 2 2012 Georgia has remained dry. Here at the homestead in Cataula, GA. I've recorded 0.68 inches of rain since November 1^st to date. Since October 1^st I have recorded 1.98 inches of rain to date. On October 30^th 2012 80.77% of Georgia was experiencing some form of drought. As of November 20^th 2012 drought coverage has spread and now 93.07% of Georgia is experiencing drought conditions. Areas of Georgia currently without drought are the Northwest and Southeast corners. Middle and West Central Georgia are the hardest hit with drought and currently experiencing 'Extreme to Exceptional' drought conditions.

Current Drought conditions on right compared to October 30^th on left.

Rainfall in Georgia for the last 30 days as of November 21 2012.

Percent of normal rainfall year to November 20 2012

Rainfall needed to bring conditions back to normal [no drought]. Georgia needs anywhere from a Trace upward to 12 inches.

CLIMATE IMPACTS - Georgia

GENERALLY 10 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL PREVAILED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE PAST 14 DAYS.

LOCATION   TOTAL RAINFALL    NORMAL    DEPARTURE     PERCENT
            LAST 365 DAYS    VALUE     FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

ATLANTA        37.22         49.73      -12.51         75%
ATHENS         37.22         46.36       -9.14         80%
COLUMBUS       37.54         46.77       -9.23         80%
MACON          32.89         45.72      -12.83         72%

RESERVOIRS/STREAM LEVELS - Georgia as of Nov. 21

CURRENT LAKE LEVELS AT THE USACE PROJECTS WERE MAINLY FROM 1 TO 12 FEET BELOW SEASONAL POOL LEVELS. ALL OF THE LAKE LEVELS ARE PROJECTED TO SLOWLY FALL DURING THE NEXT FOUR WEEKS.

LAKE       SEASONAL POOL  CURRENT LEVEL   DEPARTURE
                                           IN FEET

ALLATOONA       829          828.52         -0.48
CARTERS        1072         1070.13         -1.87
HARTWELL        657          645.83        -11.17
LANIER         1071         1059.28        -11.72
THURMOND        328          315.09        -12.91
WEST POINT      633          622.98        -10.02

U.S. Drought outlook November 15 2012 thru February 28 2013

Sources:

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/monitor.html

http://water.weather.gov/precip/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/page2.gif

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=dgt&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

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#Tornado in Algarve, #Portugal - video

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sat, 17 Nov 2012 11:46:00 +0000

While the weather is quite in the states, a tornado ripped through Algarve, Portugal. This person filming got lucky that no debris came through their window. I would suggest you not stand at a window with a tornado coming at you. This could have been the last thing they saw. Enjoy!

You can see more videos and pictures of this here - http://www.onweer-online.nl/forum/topic/36577/tornado-treft-algarve-in-portugal-tornado-strikes-/

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Nor'easter will be No Sandy - November 4 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 16:12:00 +0000

The Nor'easter expected to impact areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this week will be No Sandy. However due to earlier damage caused by Hurricane Sandy in these areas this storm will have a greater impact.

With that said, we can sill expect strong to gusty winds in areas from 40 to 50 mph which will hamper repair of downed power lines. Winds will also be capable of bringing down tress and branches already weakened from Sandy.

'Minor to Moderate coastal flooding' with the high tide around Midday Wednesday looking like the best time for storm surge. With many area beaches and coastal property already having erosion, it is likely this storm will add to this.

'Rain amounts' of up to 4 inches can be expected at this time in and around the areas closer to the coast with lesser amounts inland. Due to flooded areas which at this time have not receded any extra water will cause them to rise, and may also cause areas to flood again.

'Snow will also be a concern' on the backside of the counter clockwise flow around the storm. Areas likely to see snow at this time are inland in PA, NJ and NY maybe even as far south as VA; these areas 'could' see 1 to 4 inches maybe more. I think the New England area 'could' see 8 to 15 inches depending on storm path. Uncertainty remains at this time in this as we are still days away form this storm impacting the northeast and the final path is unknown, whether it will hug the coast or be farther away.

Projected Path of Nor'easter Tuesday November 6 thru Friday November 9 2012

Forecast Rain amounts Nov 4 thru Nov 9

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Drought Update: Current and Outlook for Georgia, Southeast, United States - November 2 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 02 Nov 2012 17:17:00 +0000

Drought in Georgia still persists and gained ground during the dry month of October. While drought has yet to relinquish it's hold on areas of North and Central Georgia, it's slowly creeping back into areas of south Georgia. During this time of year folks don't think much about drought conditions as the lush green vegetation is slowly turning brown and going dormant across the state as fall and winter moves in.

The difference a month makes since my last drought update October 6 2012

Drought still remains in Georgia and is gradually once again becoming worse due to lack of rain as area lakes and streams mainly in central Georgia continue to drop and some are at record lows during this time of year.

Rainfall in Georgia and the United States over the last 30 days

CLIMATE IMPACTS - Georgia

GENERALLY ZERO TO 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL PREVAILED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE PAST 14 DAYS.

LOCATION   TOTAL RAINFALL    NORMAL    DEPARTURE     PERCENT
            LAST 365 DAYS    VALUE     FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

ATLANTA        36.35         49.76      -13.41         73%
ATHENS         37.30         46.38       -9.08         80%
COLUMBUS       37.20         46.81       -9.61         79%
MACON          32.33         45.74      -13.41         71%
-------------------------------------------------------------------

RESERVOIRS/STREAM LEVELS - Georgia

CURRENT LAKE LEVELS AT THE USACE PROJECTS WERE MAINLY FROM 2 TO 13 FEET BELOW SEASONAL POOL LEVELS. ALL OF THE LAKE LEVELS ARE PROJECTED TO SLOWLY FALL DURING THE NEXT FOUR WEEKS.

LAKE       SEASONAL POOL  CURRENT LEVEL   DEPARTURE
                                           IN FEET

ALLATOONA       832          830.15         -1.85
CARTERS        1073         1071.03         -1.97
HARTWELL        658          645.90        -12.10
LANIER         1071         1061.55         -9.45
THURMOND        329          316.13        -12.87
WEST POINT      634          623.16        -10.84

AVERAGE STREAM LEVELS FOR THE PAST 7 DAYS RANGED FROM AS LOW AS 1 PERCENT ON MUCH OF THE FLINT...OCMULGEE AND OCONEE RIVERS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA...TO AS HIGH AS 65 PERCENT ON THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER IN ATLANTA DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL OR LACK THEREOF.

PLEASE NOTE THAT CREEKS AND SMALLER RIVERS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY DUE TO RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN IF IT OCCURS.

Here's the current drought conditions across the southeast US October 2 thru 30 2012.

Here's the current drought conditions across the United States October 2 thru 30 2012.

Here's the Seasonal Drought Outlook November 1 2012 thru January 31 2013

Here's the Outlook for November Rain and Temperatures as well as the three month outlook fro rain and temperature.

Early look at 'Possible severe weather' for November 11-13 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 01 Nov 2012 14:17:00 +0000

This is a look ahead to November 11^th through the 13^th. As you know things in the weather world change on a dime. Should this verify we may see some strong to severe storms in the South & Southeast, Tennessee valley, Middle & Lower Mississippi valley back into the Central & Southern plains. We are entering our Second Severe Weather Season in these areas. I'll keep a watch on modeling in the coming days as we near these dates.

Surface to 500mb Bulk Shear in knots. Here it looks pretty impressive and could support severe weather possible Tornadoes. [denotes the change of wind direction with height a measure of vorticity]

Cross over winds in knots from Surface[red] to 500mb[blue] [winds form different direction that may cause spin]

Temperature at the surface during this possible event shows the contrast ahead of the system vs behind it. Notice the 70's and 80's ahead and the cooler 30' and 40' behind. This is the same setup we deal with in spring as warm and colder air clash.

While dew points are modest approaching the 60's it doesn't take high dew points this time of year to provide more energy for storms. [Dew point is the measure of moisture / fuel in the air so to speak]

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