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    <title>CGIAR Climate Blog</title>
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          <atom10:link xmlns:atom10="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/CgiarClimateBlogs" /><feedburner:info uri="cgiarclimateblogs" /><atom10:link xmlns:atom10="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" rel="hub" href="http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/" /><creativeCommons:license>http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/</creativeCommons:license><image><link>http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/</link><url>http://creativecommons.org/images/public/somerights20.gif</url><title>Some Rights Reserved</title></image><feedburner:emailServiceId>CgiarClimateBlogs</feedburner:emailServiceId><feedburner:feedburnerHostname>http://feedburner.google.com</feedburner:feedburnerHostname><item>
    <title>Countries reach for food security while reducing agriculture's climate costs</title>
    <link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CgiarClimateBlogs/~3/1A8WywW9Wqk/Countries-reach-foodsecurity-while-reducing-ag-climatecosts</link>
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                    &lt;img  class="imagefield imagefield-field_blog_header_img" width="500" height="316" alt="New review by FAO and CCAFS looks at mitigation activities within agriculture " src="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/tree_deforestation.jpg?1369055324" /&gt;        &lt;/div&gt;
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                    &lt;a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/janeboles/3895515737/" rel="nofollow" class="caption"&gt;Agriculture is a major driver of deforestation, but has great mitigation potential if managed properly. New review looks at current mitigation activities within agriculture and presents emerging best practices and challenges. Photo: J. Boles&lt;/a&gt;        &lt;/div&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;by Timm Tennigkeit and Andreas Wilkes &lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While there is significant potential for climate change mitigation in the agricultural sector, our recently released research report finds that reducing emissions is also cost competitive.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many developing countries are actually beginning to recognize low emissions development strategies as a promising pathway to pursue sustainable growth, while protecting their natural capital. Some of them have already prepared low-emission policies and measures in the agricultural sector.&lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;For example, Brazil’s Agro-Energy Plan is supporting mitigation activities aiming at improving agricultural efficiency and trade competitiveness. In Mexico, agricultural mitigation activities aim at reducing the drivers of deforestation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In East Africa, Ethiopia’s Green Economy Strategy will ensure that their agricultural mitigation activities contribute to food security through more efficient livestock and cropland nutrient management.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;'&lt;a href="http://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/27782"&gt;National integrat&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/27782"&gt;&lt;img src="/sites/default/files/resize/assets/images/fao_ccafs_report_image-208x276.jpg" alt="Get the FAO-CCAFS review paper here. " title="Get the FAO-CCAFS review paper here. " style="margin: 10px; float: left;" class="caption" height="276" width="208" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/27782"&gt;ed mitigation planning in agriculture: A review paper&lt;/a&gt;' is published jointly by&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href="http://www.fao.org"&gt;the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It reviews national integrated mitigation planning activities in agriculture and the experiences that countries have had with the process.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The review aims to inform policy makers and advisers involved in low-emission development planning processes about ongoing agricultural mitigation actions in developing countries, highlighting the potentials, challenges and emerging best practices. It provides an overview of ongoing planning in the agriculture sector and in particular highlights the relevance of agriculture to national mitigation plans and actions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read more:&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/national-mitigation-actions-agriculture-put-under-microscope-new-brief"&gt;National m&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/national-mitigation-actions-agriculture-put-under-microscope-new-brief"&gt;itigation actions in agriculture put under microscope in new brief&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/bigfacts/food-system-emissions/"&gt;&lt;img src="/sites/default/files/resize/assets/images/food_system_emissions-240x370.jpg" alt="Food system emissions from CCAFS Big Facts. Click to get to the site." title="Food system emissions from CCAFS Big Facts. Click to get to the site." style="margin: 10px; float: right;" class="caption" height="370" width="240" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Why include mitigation within agriculture?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Low-emission development in agriculture is important since agriculture contributes an estimated 10-12 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. This estimate does not however take into account the contributions of food production to emissions in other sectors such as energy or transport.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What is the total greenhouse gas footprint of the whole food system? &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/bigfacts/food-system-emissions/"&gt;Check CCAFS Big Facts site. &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In addition, agriculture is a driver of deforestation and other land use changes that contribute an estimated 17 percent of total global emissions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In our review, we found that developing countries have considered the synergies between agricultural mitigation and a range of other development objectives, for example increased food security, reduced deforestation, reduced water pollution and heightened adaptation to climate change.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For the agriculture sector, however, low emission development is closely interlinked with the challenge to support these development objectives.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In fact, barriers to adoption may be more diverse than in other sectors, and will need to be adequately addressed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We also found that about 40 percent of the Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) submissions include agricultural activities. However, agriculture has only received a very small proportion of climate financing, which is a major contraint for this sector's low emission development.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read the report for a complete review of our findings:&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href="http://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/27782"&gt;National integrated mitigation planning in agriculture: A review paper&lt;/a&gt;, by Timm Tennigkei, Andreas Wilkes and Katalin Symosi. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;hr /&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Timm Tennigkeit and Andreas Wilkes are working at &lt;a href="http://www.unique-landuse.de/"&gt;UNIQUE forestry and land use&lt;/a&gt; on climate change related analytical work and land use investments. Timm Tennigkeit will also speak at CCAFS upcoming side event at the &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/events/03/jun/2013/sbsta-bonn-climate-meeting"&gt;Bonn climate conference on 4 June, 18:30, Room: RAIL&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CgiarClimateBlogs/~4/1A8WywW9Wqk" height="1" width="1"/&gt;</description>
     <comments>http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/Countries-reach-foodsecurity-while-reducing-ag-climatecosts#comments</comments>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/mitigation">mitigation</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/nama">NAMA</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/pro-poor-mitigation">Pro-poor mitigation</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/field">From the field</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/research-highlights">Research Highlights</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/ongoing-research">Ongoing research</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/cgiar-content-subject/climate-change">Climate change</category>
 <georss:point> </georss:point>
 <pubDate>Mon, 20 May 2013 13:02:57 +0000</pubDate>
 <dc:creator>Cecilia</dc:creator>
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  <item>
    <title>Tool for generating weather data updated</title>
    <link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CgiarClimateBlogs/~3/oyV8gZrOOw8/tool-generating-weather-data-updated</link>
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                    &lt;img  class="imagefield imagefield-field_blog_header_img" width="500" height="332" alt="Information about the weather is crucial for reducing risk " src="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/5037545225_8fdf447c231.jpg?1368625892" /&gt;        &lt;/div&gt;
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                    &lt;a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/ciat/5037545225/in/set-72157622496531578" rel="nofollow" class="caption"&gt;Information about the weather is crucial for reducing risk in agricultural decision making and creating food security for all. Photo: N.Palmer&lt;/a&gt;        &lt;/div&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;By Philip Thornton&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/future-weather-generating-tool-updated"&gt;Since becoming available in June 2011&lt;/a&gt;, the on-line and stand-alone versions of the&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/weather-generating-tool-helps-agronomists-assess-climate-risk"&gt;MarkSim GCM&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;stochastic weather generator tool have been widely tested. A few problems were found, which have now been corrected. Both versions of the tool can be used to generate daily data that are characteristic of current conditions, based on the WorldClim dataset, an interpolated surface of weather station data from around the world mostly covering the years 1960-1990.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/"&gt;One version of the tool can be accessed here&lt;/a&gt;, in a Google Earth user interface. An alternative version of the tool, which can be run via user-written scripts or calling programmes&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href="http://www.ccafs-climate.org/pattern_scaling/" target="_blank"&gt;can be accessed here&lt;/a&gt;, along with detailed documentation.&lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;MarkSim GCM is&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href="http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/"&gt;currently being updated&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;with more recent climate model outputs, from the IPCC’s CMIP5 archive.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;MarkSim GCM was developed by Waen Associates with CCAFS support, in cooperation with&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href="http://www.ciat.cgiar.org/"&gt;CIAT&lt;/a&gt;,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href="http://www.ilri.org/" target="_blank"&gt;ILRI&lt;/a&gt;,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href="http://www.ifpri.org/" target="_blank"&gt;IFPRI&lt;/a&gt;,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href="http://www.pik-potsdam.de/" target="_blank"&gt;Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href="http://harvestchoice.org/" target="_blank"&gt;HarvestChoice&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;and the&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href="http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/" target="_blank"&gt;University of Oxford.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read more:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/weather-generating-tool-helps-agronomists-assess-climate-risk"&gt;Weather generator tool helps agronomists assess climate risks&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/future-weather-generating-tool-updated"&gt;Future Weather Generating Tool Updated&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;hr /&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/about/who-we-are/our-staff/theme-4-integration-decision-making/philip-thornton"&gt;Philip Thornton&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;is the CCAFS Data and Tools Research Theme Leader. Find out more about CCAFS' &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/our-work/research-themes/integration-decision-making/data-and-tools"&gt;research into data and tools&lt;/a&gt;. If you are interested in reading about CCAFS' research linking knowledge to action,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/our-work/research-themes/integration-decision-making/linking-knowledge-action"&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CgiarClimateBlogs/~4/oyV8gZrOOw8" height="1" width="1"/&gt;</description>
     <comments>http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tool-generating-weather-data-updated#comments</comments>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/ciat">CIAT</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/eci">ECI</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/ifpri">ifpri</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/ilri">ilri</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/marksim">MarkSim</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/potsdam">potsdam</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/integration-decision-making/data-and-tools">Data and tools</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/ongoing-research">Ongoing research</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/cgiar-content-subject/climate-change">Climate change</category>
 <georss:point> </georss:point>
 <pubDate>Wed, 15 May 2013 13:42:14 +0000</pubDate>
 <dc:creator>Lucy</dc:creator>
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    <title>Harnessing farmers' valuable agriculture knowledge the right way </title>
    <link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CgiarClimateBlogs/~3/EqRnYBi5Io4/harnessing-valuable-indigenous-farm-knowledge-right-way</link>
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                    &lt;img  class="imagefield imagefield-field_blog_header_img" width="500" height="375" alt="Indigenous knowledge among farmers many times has a scientific basis" src="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/itk_ea.jpg?1368450726" /&gt;        &lt;/div&gt;
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                    &lt;a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/vredeseilanden/492406157/" rel="nofollow" class="caption"&gt;Much of farmers’ knowledge on weather predictions and farming practices have a scientific basis. Now, the question is how to evaluate this knowledge and link it to existing forecast processes to package relevant information. Photo: D.Musschoot&lt;/a&gt;        &lt;/div&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;by Catherine Mungai&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The need to harness the value of indigenous ecological and farm knowledge to plan and achieve resilience has been repeatedly raised and emphasized in discussions on food security in a changing climate held at different forums in the East African region.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To address this, the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) East Africa has collaborated with partners to undertake studies focusing on reducing vulnerability to climate change through promising innovations in climate and weather information management in order to enhance rural livelihoods.&lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;Such partners include Sokoine University of Agriculture, and Tanzania Meteorological Agency both in Tanzania; and National Agricultural Research Organization and Makerere University in Uganda.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In Tanzania, the study was undertaken in &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/where-we-work/east-africa/tanzania-usambara"&gt;Lushoto&lt;/a&gt;, while in Uganda the study was carried out in &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/where-we-work/east-africa/uganda-kagera-basin"&gt;Rakai&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/where-we-work/east-africa/uganda-albertine-rift"&gt;Hoima&lt;/a&gt;. The studies examined the integration of indigenous &lt;img src="/sites/default/files/resize/assets/images/kenya_itk-250x333.jpg" alt="Farmers&amp;#039; indigenous farm-knowledge many times has a scientific background. This could be harnessed to make more effective climate forecast messages. Photo: Vredeseilanden" title="Farmers&amp;#039; indigenous farm-knowledge many times has a scientific background. This could be harnessed to make more effective climate forecast messages. Photo: Vredeseilanden" style="float: right; margin: 10px;" class="caption" height="333" width="250" /&gt;technical knowledge in scientific weather forecasting and early warning systems to enhance the ability of farmers and policy makers to make informed decisions regarding their agricultural practices.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Results from the studies reveal that most farmers were aware of ongoing climate variability. In Lushoto, most of the respondents reported to have observed the changes themselves. Seasonal drought appeared to have occurred most widely compared to other climate extremes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Perceived severity of climate extremes determines the ability of a farmer to cope with a hazard that he/she is exposed to. Therefore, the perception pattern of the perceived severity of climate extremes can change with increased ability of the farmer to cope with such climate hazards.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Regarding the innovations for coping with climate related risks, farmers in both Rakai and Hoima districts have adapted to climate change by spreading the risk through planting early maturing crops such as beans and sweet potatoes and drought-tolerant crops like cassava mainly for food security concerns.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;For centuries, farmers have relied on indigenous knowledge systems to inform their farming practices.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Signs such as appearance of dark clouds, direction and strength of the wind, very high temperatures during the night, presence of lighting and thunder at night without rain and position of the moon have been used to predict rainfall patterns. Local communities identified a good season by examining the behavior of birds, animals, plant appearance, insects, the moon, wind and air temperature. Using this information, farmers made important production decisions such as: starting field preparations; carrying out dry planting; purchasing seed for planting; deciding on the type of crops to grow; planning the type of agronomic practices to use; and planning for labor redistribution and allocation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Farmers rely a lot on indigenous knowledge for weather predictions and most of these, though unknown to them, have a scientific basis.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There is need therefore to evaluate this knowledge and establish their scientific basis and link them to existing forecasting processes to increase the relevance and reliability of weather forecasts. There is also need to activate the various links of the information flow network through a concerted effort of actors at the various levels for better and timely flow of climate and weather information to the grassroots.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In both countries, radio is the most used media to access climate and weather; however the packaging of information is critical to ensure correct messages are disseminated.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Learn more:&lt;/strong&gt; In Senegal, we work with integrating farmers' own knowledge into scientific climate forecasts:&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/providing-climate-services-make-sense-farmers"&gt;Providing climate services that make sense to farmers &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;hr /&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;This story was written by Catherine Mungai,&amp;nbsp;&lt;em&gt;Program Specialist&lt;/em&gt; at the CCAFS East Africa regional office. Follow East Africa on Twitter: &lt;a href="http://www.twitter.com/cgiarclimate_ea" target="_blank"&gt;@Cgiarclimate_ea&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CgiarClimateBlogs/~4/EqRnYBi5Io4" height="1" width="1"/&gt;</description>
     <comments>http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/harnessing-valuable-indigenous-farm-knowledge-right-way#comments</comments>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/tanzania">Tanzania</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/uganda">Uganda</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/field">From the field</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/cgiar-content-subject/climate-change">Climate change</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/region/east-africa">East Africa</category>
 <georss:point> </georss:point>
 <pubDate>Mon, 13 May 2013 13:08:43 +0000</pubDate>
 <dc:creator>Cecilia</dc:creator>
 <guid isPermaLink="false">2014 at http://ccafs.cgiar.org</guid>
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    <title>Young scientists may retire before global climate change models improve</title>
    <link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CgiarClimateBlogs/~3/QHIEkbrqI-0/Young-scientists-global-climate-models-improve%20</link>
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                    &lt;img  class="imagefield imagefield-field_blog_header_img" width="500" height="332" alt="Maize might get affected by pests and diseases in a two degree warmer world" src="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/maize.neil_.jpg?1368446622" /&gt;        &lt;/div&gt;
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                    &lt;a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/ciat/5244868344/in/set-72157631885298620" rel="nofollow" class="caption"&gt;Potential impacts of a +2 degree increase on tropical maize: pests and diseases. Photo: N.Palmer (CIAT) &lt;/a&gt;        &lt;/div&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;by Julian Ramirez-Villegas&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I consider myself a young researcher, with plenty of years left in me to solve some of the problems society faces in terms of climate change. But it is a little disconcerting when I discover that I’ll be retired by the time global climate models are of sufficient quality to plug directly into agricultural models. At least that is the finding of a recent article I lead authored, &lt;a href="http://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/28987"&gt;"Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research".&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The study took the latest global climate projections from CMIP5, those which are the basis for the forthcoming 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, and examined how they have improved since the last version (CMIP3) which went into the 4th Assessment report back in 2007. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;!--break--&gt;&lt;!--break--&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Climate scientists aptly call the ability of global climate models (GCMs) to represent climate “skill”. We found that all GCM errors were often larger than 2 °C for temperature and 20 % for precipitation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is particularly worrisome since the exceedance of “moderate limits” of temperature (2 °C) and precipitation (-20 %) can cause tropical crop yields to drop by -10 to -20 %. So we could be talking of a massive under- or over-estimation of impacts, if we didn’t care about GCM errors.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The good news is that we found that skill has improved –temperature “skill” in CMIP5 models is up by 5- 15% compared to CMIP3. The real problem is that it is not fast enough.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At this rate, we predict it will take 5-30 years for the models to represent climate well enough to directly use in agricultural impact analyses. For precipitation the picture is bleaker – in ca. 5 years prediction “skill” has improved just 1-2%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src="/sites/default/files/resize/assets/images/ramirez_model-450x262.png" alt="Errors in the CMIP5 ensemble (measured by the root mean squared error, RMSE) (left) and sensitivity of major cropping systems to +2 C increase in temperature (right)" title="Errors in the CMIP5 ensemble (measured by the root mean squared error, RMSE) (left) and sensitivity of major cropping systems to +2 C increase in temperature (right)" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="caption" height="262" width="450" /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That means 30-50 years of improvement are needed before we can plug these into agricultural impact studies. But if we waited until climate models are good enough for our purposes, we will probably run into trouble given the increasing need for adaptation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This assumes a linear rate of improvement, which is a worst case scenario, but significant investment is going into the improvement of global climate prediction, and things may get significantly better in shorter periods of time as the new wave of models come online.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But this does not mean that I need to find a new job. It just means that uncertainty in climate prediction is here to stay, and so we need to ensure that the science robustly takes this into account, and that decisions on how to tackle climate change be made within the context of uncertainty.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is crucial that we learn to take decisions despite uncertainty. This can be done by identifying no-regret adaptation options – those which are a good idea no matter how the climate changes, or using scientific evidence and explicit evaluations of uncertainty to make the best call. This is something decisions makers are constantly facing, and is nothing new. What we cannot afford is allowing climate projection uncertainty to be the focus of discussion.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;After all, there is no uncertainty that the climate is changing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read the article:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;a href="http://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/28987"&gt;Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research&lt;/a&gt;, by Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Andrew Challinor, Philip Thornton, and Andy Jarvis. &lt;a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/"&gt;IOPScience Journal.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;hr /&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt; Written by researcher &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/about/who-we-are/our-staff/researchers/research-assistant/julian-ramirez-villegas"&gt;Julian Ramirez-Villegas&lt;/a&gt;, and &lt;em&gt;Andy Jarvis, Theme Leader, both &lt;/em&gt;working on &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/our-work/research-themes/progressive-adaptation"&gt;Theme 1: Adaptation to progressive climate change&lt;/a&gt;. Follow us on &lt;a href="https://twitter.com/cgiarclimate"&gt;Twitter @Cgiarclimate&lt;/a&gt; for the latest research on climate data and models.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CgiarClimateBlogs/~4/QHIEkbrqI-0" height="1" width="1"/&gt;</description>
     <comments>http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/Young-scientists-global-climate-models-improve%20#comments</comments>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/climate-models">climate models</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/adaptation-future-climate">Adaptation to future climate</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/research-highlights">Research Highlights</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/ongoing-research">Ongoing research</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/cgiar-content-subject/climate-change">Climate change</category>
 <georss:point> </georss:point>
 <pubDate>Mon, 13 May 2013 12:13:41 +0000</pubDate>
 <dc:creator>Cecilia</dc:creator>
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    <title>Rangeland enclosures could help pastoralists cope with climate variability </title>
    <link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CgiarClimateBlogs/~3/Cbj4u69J-W8/rangeland-enclosure-could-help-pastoralists-cope-climate-variability</link>
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                    &lt;img  class="imagefield imagefield-field_blog_header_img" width="500" height="333" alt="Pastoralists in Ethiopia adapt to climatic variability through land enclosures " src="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/rangeland_boy.jpg?1368442773" /&gt;        &lt;/div&gt;
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                    &lt;a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/ilri/3950592208/" rel="nofollow" class="caption"&gt;The Borana pastoralists in southern Ethiopia live on livestock management. Now climate change and variability are putting unneeded stress to this. One way to cope is by setting up enclosures suggests pilot study. Photo: ILRI/S.Mann&lt;/a&gt;        &lt;/div&gt;
        &lt;/div&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;by Catherine Mungai and Tabitha Muchaba &lt;span style="font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; color: #1f497d;"&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Livestock is the mainstay of livelihood for the Borana pastoralists in southern Ethiopia. Recurrent cycles of drought are a major factor influencing production systems and livelihoods. This coupled with livestock disease, lack of market and low economic development pose major threats to the Borana pastoralist's livelihoods, who make their living mainly from keeping cattle, shoats and camels.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To cope with climate variability, the Borana community of southern Ethiopia are undertaking improved range management practices such as establishment of fenced rangeland enclosures. &lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;This works as a feed security strategy for the core breeding stock mainly calves to ensure continuity and sustainability of pastoralism. In some situations they have made shifts in their livelihood patterns and production practices and even engaged more in crop cultivation to complement their income from livestock. They have also introduced new range management practices such as hay making and large enclosures to stock fodder for use during the dry season. &lt;img src="/sites/default/files/resize/assets/images/cows-200x300.jpg" alt="Fencing off cattle might be the way forward for pastoralists trying to adapt to climate change. Photo: Z.Sewunet (ILRI) " title="Fencing off cattle might be the way forward for pastoralists trying to adapt to climate change. Photo: Z.Sewunet (ILRI) " style="float: right; margin: 10px;" class="caption" height="300" width="200" /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Rangleland enclosures&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;strong&gt;take the center stage in pilot study &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security Program (CCAFS) with Managing Risks for Improved Livelihoods (MARIL) implemented a Participatory Action Research (PAR) pilot study last year to identify and take inventory of rangeland enclosures in Ethiopia. These involved documentation of their status, utilization, benefits and their implications on building herders climate change adaptation capacities.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Findings revealed rangeland enclosures contain highly nutritious and palatable grass species, as well as shrubs and trees which fix nitrogen, produce pods (fruit) and provide good shade. In the study area, the enclosures were located in close proximity to villages and water points to minimize the walking distance for calves and lactating cows.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In a follow up quantitative study done to characterize the enclosures, it was verified that high quality grass species such as Chrysopongon aucheri, Heteropogon contortus, Chloris roxburghiana, Cynodon dactylon, Eragrotis species, Panicum maximum, Themeda triandra, Cenchrus ciliaris are dominant. Acacia tortolis is the dominating tree in all the enclosures.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Pastoralists take the lead&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;During the study, the targeted communities took a lead in identification of their needs for capacity building and participated actively in the implementation, monitoring and evaluation of the project.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Participatory monitoring and evaluation methods were used to capture perspectives of the beneficiaries, key project facilitators and other partners, to see results and effects of the program and to document lessons learned. Being semi-privately owned by a defined group of herders who live in the same location, the enclosures are managed by a committee of knowledgeable and reputable elders using oral bylaws.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There is a grazing calendar and categories of livestock which are allowed to have access to the enclosures and this depends on the available biomass and expectation of the rain in the upcoming season.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In general, enclosures are open for grazing during the peak dry period and closed just before it starts to rain. Priority is given to calves followed by lactating cows. I f there is large biomass left in the enclosures when the rain season approaches, then the bulls meant for fattening and marketing are allowed in.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Learn more about the people living in Borana and how the manage climatic changes:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/assets/docs/ccafs_hbs_borana_ethiopia.pdf"&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/assets/docs/ccafs_hbs_borana_ethiopia.pdf"&gt;Household Basline survey from Borana, Ethiopia (PDF):&lt;/a&gt; Investigating if, and how, farmers and pastoralists are adapting to climate variability.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/how-are-ethiopian-pastoralists-percieving-current-climate-trends"&gt;How are Ethiopian pastoralists perceiving current climate trends?&lt;/a&gt; Blog story illustrating a Working Paper, looking at how pastoralists in the area are perceiving climate change&lt;strong&gt;.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;hr /&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;This story was written by &lt;em&gt;Catherine Mungai and Tabitha Muchaba, both part of CCAFS East Africa regional program team. &lt;/em&gt;Follow East Africa on Twitter for the latest updates: &lt;a href="http://www.twitter.com/cgiarclimate_ea" target="_blank"&gt;@Cgiarclimate_ea&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CgiarClimateBlogs/~4/Cbj4u69J-W8" height="1" width="1"/&gt;</description>
     <comments>http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/rangeland-enclosure-could-help-pastoralists-cope-climate-variability#comments</comments>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/amkn">AMKN</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/borana">Borana</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/ethiopia">ethiopia</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/maril">MARIL</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/field">From the field</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/cgiar-content-subject/climate-change">Climate change</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/cgiar-content-subject/livestock">Livestock</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/region/east-africa">East Africa</category>
 <georss:point>4.984925 37.633553</georss:point>
 <pubDate>Mon, 13 May 2013 11:09:17 +0000</pubDate>
 <dc:creator>Cecilia</dc:creator>
 <guid isPermaLink="false">2012 at http://ccafs.cgiar.org</guid>
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    <title>Push for agriculture within climate discussions in East Africa continues</title>
    <link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CgiarClimateBlogs/~3/bbLNuCUaY2c/climate-dicussions-east-africa-pushing-agriculture</link>
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                    &lt;img  class="imagefield imagefield-field_blog_header_img" width="500" height="332" alt="Agriculture needs to be discussed and valued at all levels within climate fight " src="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/lady_landscape_behindher.jpg?1368082013" /&gt;        &lt;/div&gt;
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                    &lt;a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/ciat/4108191325/in/set-72157622854422558" rel="nofollow" class="caption"&gt;CCAFS East Africa is leading efforts to include agriculture into climate change policy discussions at all levels. The program is not working alone, but is pairing up with key partners in the area. Read about the process in this blog.&lt;/a&gt;        &lt;/div&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;by Catherine Mungai and Vivian Atakos &lt;span style="font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; color: #1f497d;"&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;CCAFS East Africa in partnership with &lt;a href="http://www.comesa.int/‎"&gt;the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA)&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href="http://www.uneca.org/acpc‎"&gt;the African Climate Policy Centre (ACPC)&lt;/a&gt; are leading initiatives aimed at including agriculture into climate change policy discussions at national, regional and international levels.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The initiatives include a series of consultative workshops bringing together climate change and agriculture experts, negotiators from government institutions, universities, research institutions, NGOs, civil society, farmer organizations and the private sector to develop a comprehensive strategy on including agriculture into climate change discussions and to articulate the African needs and aspirations on agriculture.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/events/13/feb/2013/post-doha-agriculture-and-climate-change-meeting"&gt;A workshop held from 13 to 15 February 2013, in Tanzania&lt;/a&gt;, brought together 19 delegates to review the outcome of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP 18) held in December 2012 and to prepare for &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/events/03/jun/2013/sbsta-bonn-climate-meeting"&gt;the Bonn climate talks planned for June this year.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read more:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/cop18"&gt;CCAFS at COP18&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Delegates, who included &lt;a href="http://www.uneca.org/node/30/pages/african-group-negotiators-agn"&gt;the African Group of Negotiators (AGN)&lt;/a&gt;, agricultural and climate scientists and academia, are developing a position paper for the AGN on Agriculture and Climate Change to be used during the Bonn climate talks.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Following the meetings “the AGN can comfortably and confidently apply the SBSTA mandate from article 9 of the convention in the African context regarding agriculture,” said Fredrick Kossam, Head of Climate Change and Research Services, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Malawi and a member of the AGN.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.agricultureday.org/blogs/2012/12/12/frustration-present-at-agriculture-landscapes-and-livelihoods-day/"&gt;During COP18, agriculture was a subject of discussions&lt;/a&gt;. Africa played a critical role as the chair in steering negotiations aimed at incorporating agriculture in the international climate change regime to be concluded by 2015. Issues related to agriculture were however suspended and are due to resume at the Bonn climate talks in June 2013.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read more:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;a href="http://www.agricultureday.org"&gt;Agriculture, Landscapes and Livelihoods Day during COP18, brought the science to the negotiators.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“The AGN now recognize that although agriculture can be seen in the context of adaptation, there are co-benefits to mitigation actions," noted Chebet Maikut, from the Ministry of Water and Environment, Uganda.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;He continued by saying that "key issues of focus include: the critical impact of agriculture as it contributes to our sustainable development in Africa, the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture in the country, technology transfer, appropriate breeds, how to support farmers address the impacts of climate change affecting our production and the entire value chain and the livelihood connection.” Chebet is the Principal Programme Officer of the Mitigation Climate Change Unit within the Ugandan Ministry.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Agriculture contributes significantly to food security, poverty reduction and employment in rural households in Africa. The agricultural sector sequesters carbon, but also generates significant amounts of greenhouse gasses (GHGs). &lt;a href="http://www.fao.org/climatechange/climatesmart/en/"&gt;Agriculture contributes about 14% of global GHGs, of which 70% comes from developing countries (FAO, 2009).&lt;/a&gt; In order to sustain agricultural production, African governments need to embrace appropriate policies to support adaptive capacity of agricultural producers to the effects of climate change and variability.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;During the &lt;a href="http://www.unep.org/roa/amcen/‎"&gt;14th African Ministers Conference on Environment (AMCEN)&lt;/a&gt; in September 2012, the ministers of environment provided guidance on the common African position on agriculture. In particular, AMCEN recommended that adaptation in agriculture should remain the primary objective for Africa and that a comprehensive work programme on agriculture be established under the Cancun Adaptation Framework.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In addition, during the side event &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tried-tested-solutions-food-farming-climate-changes"&gt;"&lt;strong&gt;Lessons Learnt from Scaling-Up Actions on Food Security, Adaptation and Mitigation&lt;/strong&gt;"&lt;/a&gt; organised by CCAFS, it emerged that Africa needs good case studies to showcase vulnerabilities to a changing climate and also good practices for coping with climate variability. Consequently, ACPC, CCAFS, and COMESA embarked on a rigorous process of putting together case studies for prioritizing needs for adaptation and mitigation in Africa.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A strategic meeting for the AGN and experts to bolster the common African position on agriculture as guided by AMCEN and with scientific expertise was held between the 8th and 9th November 2012, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The meeting ensured enhanced AGNs preparedness during COP18.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What we will be up to during Bonn climate talks 2013?&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/events/03/jun/2013/sbsta-bonn-climate-meeting"&gt;Get the details on our event page. &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;hr /&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;This story was written by Catherine Mungai,&amp;nbsp;&lt;em&gt;Program Specialist&lt;/em&gt; and Vivian Atakos, Communications Officer, both working at the CCAFS East Africa regional office. Follow East Africa on Twitter: &lt;a href="http://www.twitter.com/cgiarclimate_ea" target="_blank"&gt;@Cgiarclimate_ea&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CgiarClimateBlogs/~4/bbLNuCUaY2c" height="1" width="1"/&gt;</description>
     <comments>http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/climate-dicussions-east-africa-pushing-agriculture#comments</comments>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/amcen">AMCEN</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/amkn">AMKN</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/comesa">COMESA</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/east-africa">east africa</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/negotiations">negotiations</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/field">From the field</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/cgiar-content-subject/climate-change">Climate change</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/region/east-africa">East Africa</category>
 <georss:point>-3.359546 36.675396</georss:point>
 <pubDate>Mon, 13 May 2013 07:12:46 +0000</pubDate>
 <dc:creator>Cecilia</dc:creator>
 <guid isPermaLink="false">2010 at http://ccafs.cgiar.org</guid>
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    <title>Staying one step ahead of South Asia's climate challenge</title>
    <link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CgiarClimateBlogs/~3/gjmt9jOsSHo/Staying-step-ahead-South-Asia-climate-challenge</link>
    <description>&lt;fieldset class="fieldgroup group-blog-image-header"&gt;&lt;div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-blog-header-img"&gt;
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                    &lt;img  class="imagefield imagefield-field_blog_header_img" width="500" height="333" alt="Workshop in Bagladesh covered how to manage future issues within agriculture" src="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/bangladesh_farmer.jpg?1368171355" /&gt;        &lt;/div&gt;
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                    &lt;a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/theworldfishcenter/7751371944/" rel="nofollow" class="caption"&gt;In a recently held workshop in Bangladesh, experts gathered to find a solution to South Asia&amp;#039;s future climate change and food security issues. Photo: WorldFish &lt;/a&gt;        &lt;/div&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;By guest blogger S. Gopikrishna Warrier&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What can be done today to protect South Asia’s agriculture from climate change impacts occurring in 2020?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To find crafty and viable solutions to this question, experts from Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka joined forces with the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) South Asia, in Dhaka, Bangladesh in late February of this year.&lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;CCAFS facilitators Sophie Alvarez and Christine Jost led the participants through the process. They used the fascinating technique of working backwards from the actions needed to maintain climate neutrality in 2020, and search for research and policy interventions needed today to achieve this goal.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There is a great deal of responsibilities on climate change expert as they have to model what direction climate change could take; assess what adverse impact that would have for agriculture and smallholder farmers in the region; and then develop interventions to deal with them - scientific, policy-level and institutional interventions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For farmers, climate change is an extra burden, that sits on top of all other worries and risk that she has to carry. Because the truth of the matter is, with or without climate change, there are already a number of uncertainties within agriculture.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Climate change and agriculture nexus&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Climate change could affect agriculture adversely. Agriculture also produces greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. The process of reducing farm induced GHG emission could adversely affect food production and food security within countries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Agriculture’s contribution in the total greenhouse gas emission basket is estimated at 12.5%, but the same sector supports more than half of the population in India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The number of families that derive their livelihood from agriculture is also disproportionately high when compared to sector’s contribution to the national GDPs. In India, for instance, agriculture contributes 14% to the GDP, while it supports between 55- 60% of the population.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Senior experts from the national agricultural research systems and CGIAR Centers in Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka assessed the current opportunities, challenges, policies and institutions for implementing climate-resilient agriculture in the region. They also assessed current CCAFS research and future plans for getting the maximum impact in the region.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Thinking about short-term adaptation&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The primary concern is on enabling farmers to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change, so called short-term adaptation. More than coping in the long term, where impacts of climate change are still uncertain, focus should be on dealing with current climate variability. If farmers can be helped to deal with the fallout from current climate variability – drought, floods, pests and diseases – then their ability to deal with climate change over the long term is better.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Farmers also need to be helped to reduce greenhouse gases from their fields. For instance, growing rice in flooded paddy fields generates methane; farm animals with their multi-chambered guts also generate methane; when the soil is dry nitrogenous fertilizers vaporise as nitrous oxide; and burning of agricultural residue produces carbon dioxide. The challenge is that mitigation has to be done without impacting farm incomes and food security.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src="/sites/default/files/resize/assets/images/nepal_rice-450x299.jpg" alt="Rice farming generates methane emissions. A lot can, and needs to be done to reduce this development and mitigate climate change that supports farmers in developing countries, writes the author. Photo: N. Palmer (CIAT)" title="Rice farming generates methane emissions. A lot can, and needs to be done to reduce this development and mitigate climate change that supports farmers in developing countries, writes the author. Photo: N. Palmer (CIAT)" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 10px auto; display: block;" class="caption" height="299" width="450" /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is not as if climate change has not been discussed at the national policy levels in these countries. Most of the South Asian countries have developed national climate change action plans and have also reported progress to the UNFCCC Secretariat. India, for instance, has the national action plan, initiated by the Prime Minister’s Council on Climate Change. Similarly, Sri Lanka has a national policy and a national adaptation strategy. The problem is of convergence of the national policies and actions for the farmers.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Outline: What needs to be done&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Even as climate-forecasting models are getting better, converting predictions for larger areas for smaller locations is still a work in progress. Crop varieties that are more suited for the developing climate can then be tailor-made. Similarly, different crops can be farmed and even the land use systems in which the crops can be modified to meet the changing environment. These changes will help farmers deal with current climate variability as it evolves into a longer-term change.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read more:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/high-resolution-satellites-could-improve-crop-yield-forecasts"&gt;High-resolution satellites could improve crop yield forecasts&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Index-based insurance is being considered to deal with the impacts of extreme weather events due to climate change. Farming regions are benchmarked using yield and climate parameters, and when an extreme weather event happens, all farmers in the region are compensated using the index.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read more:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/cropinsurance-viable-solution-understood-properly" title="If understood properly, crop insurance a viable solution for farmers " class="node-title-link"&gt;If understood properly, crop insurance a viable solution for farmers &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;How can the farmers know the larger picture when an extreme weather event is happening? There are already pilot projects on reaching relevant information to farmers through the now-ubiquitous cell phone. These pilots would need scaling up to reach more areas as the impact of climate change becomes more evident.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read more:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/cell-phones-connect-farmers-food-secure-future"&gt;Cell phones connect farmers to a food secure future&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture is more difficult since it has to be done without adversely affecting production. Changing practices such as reduced tilling of the soil and alternate wetting and drying of paddy fields can help reduce emissions. Research is ongoing to develop livestock breeds that produce less methane and also developing fodder additives that can reduce methane generation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read more:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/not-only-villain-livestock-role-reducing-emissions"&gt;Not only a villain - livestock's role in reducing emissions&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Diversifying crops including tree species not only helps in capturing more carbon but also gives a safety net to the farmer when an extreme weather event strikes. It is unlikely that all crops will fail at the same time.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Though it is certain that climate is changing and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent, it is still uncertain how much and in what fashion it will change. The challenge for research, policy and implementation is to remain one step ahead of the process so that farmers’ livelihoods and national food security are not compromised.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;hr /&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;This story was written by guest blogger&amp;nbsp; S. Gopikrishna Warrier, who is a regional environment manager with Panos South Asia and was a participant at the workshop. The article is an opinion piece from Mr. Warrier. It was first published in &lt;a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/towards-climatesmart-agriculture/article4530164.ece"&gt;Hindu Business Line newspaper&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CgiarClimateBlogs/~4/gjmt9jOsSHo" height="1" width="1"/&gt;</description>
     <comments>http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/Staying-step-ahead-South-Asia-climate-challenge#comments</comments>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/south-asia">South Asia</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/workshop">workshop</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/field">From the field</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/scenarios">Scenarios</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/cgiar-content-subject/climate-change">Climate change</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/region/south-asia">South Asia</category>
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 <pubDate>Fri, 10 May 2013 08:24:14 +0000</pubDate>
 <dc:creator>Cecilia</dc:creator>
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    <title>Asia's rice bowls get a new ally in climate fight</title>
    <link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CgiarClimateBlogs/~3/wyYzrBseg7Y/asias-rice-bowls-gets-new-ally-climate-fight</link>
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                    &lt;img  class="imagefield imagefield-field_blog_header_img" width="500" height="332" alt="CCAFS plans on building climate resilience into Southeast Asia&amp;#039;s strong foundati" src="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/rice_north_vietnam_irri.jpg?1368031155" /&gt;        &lt;/div&gt;
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                    &lt;a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/ricephotos/2709044837/" rel="nofollow" class="caption"&gt;CCAFS plans on building climate resilience into Southeast Asia&amp;#039;s strong foundation for sustainable, smallholder agriculture. Photo: International Rice Research Institute (IRRI)&lt;/a&gt;        &lt;/div&gt;
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&lt;p class="p1"&gt;&lt;em&gt;by Vanessa Meadu&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="p1"&gt;In Vietnam, everywhere you look there is food. Before dawn, people haul away huge bags of produce, meat, fish and flowers to later sell on the city streets. On every sidewalk of every town, people are chopping, washing, cooking food. And from morning to night, folks are eating at makeshift pavement restaurants, or grabbing refreshment from a steaming or sizzling mobile stall, perched on the backs of their motorbikes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="p1"&gt;This country takes food and agriculture very seriously, and has made incredible progress in the last few decades, &lt;a href="http://irri.org/index.php?option=com_k2&amp;amp;view=item&amp;amp;id=8762:rice%20.%20"&gt;going from importing most of its food to becoming a major food exporter, and a leading global rice producer and exporter&lt;/a&gt;. In recent years &lt;a href="http://www.ciatnews.cgiar.org/2012/05/15/impact-of-ciats-cassava-research/"&gt;neglected crops like cassava&lt;/a&gt; have become major income generators in Vietnam, contributing to poverty alleviation.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="p1"&gt;Much of this growth is due to government and international investment in Vietnam's small-scale farmers. But climate change is a hazard to this progress. At worst, it threatens&amp;nbsp;millions&amp;nbsp;of people who depend on agriculture, from farmers in the Mekong Delta to consumers in the Philippines and beyond who depend on cheap rice for nutrition.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;!--break--&gt;&lt;!--break--&gt;
&lt;p class="p2"&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Undeniable facts: grounds for expansion into Southeast Asia&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="p1"&gt;There are compelling reasons why the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) has chosen to expand into this region: large, growing populations; major reliance on agriculture for sustenance and economic growth; and high vulnerability of agriculture to sea level rise, floods, droughts, and extreme events. On top of that, agriculture in this region is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, either directly (such as methane emissions from rice paddies) or indirectly (agriculture driving deforestation). CCAFS program director Bruce Campbell gave a broad overview of the case for working in Southeast Asia at an event yesterday to launch the Program.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="p1"&gt;&lt;iframe style="border: 1px solid #CCC; border-width: 1px 1px 0; margin-bottom: 5px;" src="http://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/20797554?rel=0" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" width="427" height="356"&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="p1"&gt;With a bit of fanfare, the CCAFS officially opened its Southeast Asia office in Hanoi, Vietnam. The &lt;a href="http://ciat.cgiar.org"&gt;International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)&lt;/a&gt;, which leads CCAFS globally, launched its own Hanoi office at the same time. Housed in Vietnam's Agricultural Genetics Institute (AGI) at the &lt;a href="http://vaas.vn"&gt;Vietnam Academy of Agricultural Sciences (VAAS)&lt;/a&gt;, and led by the &lt;a href="http://irri.org"&gt;International Rice Research Institute (IRRI)&lt;/a&gt;, the CCAFS SEA program is already standing on the shoulders of research giants in the region.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="p2"&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Much to learn from countries in this region&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="p2"&gt;I asked Campbell what we could learn from Southeast Asia. “There are many excellent examples of climate-smart agriculture in Vietnam that could potentially be adapted for countries in Africa and other regions,” he told me. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="p2"&gt;Before the launch, CCAFS scientists were treated to a field visit which included a stop in Phu Tho, two hours away from Hanoi. This is where the Red River Delta meets Vietnam's northern mountainous regions, and we could spot hills emerging from the haze behind the rice paddies.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="p2"&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/cgiarclimate/8716795512/" title="Small-scale intensive farming by CGIAR Climate, on Flickr"&gt;&lt;img src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7343/8716795512_da215924b2_n.jpg" alt="VAC system of small-scale intensive farming. Photo: V. Meadu. Click to view more." title="VAC system of small-scale intensive farming. Photo: V. Meadu. Click to view more." width="320" height="213" style="float: right; margin: 10px;" class="caption" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt; We visited a small family farm that was abuzz: dozens of sows and piglets grunting in one paddock; a fish pond with resident ducks flapping on the water; bamboo beehives scattered around the property; about a hundred chickens; and a handful of workers tending to a rice field. At the back property, a small woodlot provided much-needed shade. All of these land uses were being managed together in a sustainable, intensive system known as &lt;a href="http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/Y1187E/y1187e10.htm"&gt;'VAC' or Vườn, Ao, Chuồng&lt;/a&gt; ('garden/pond/livestock pen'). In this farm, nutrients from the pond help fertilise rice and maize, while livestock manure generates biogas for cooking. The farm produces enough rice to feed a family of six and generates steady income through the rest of its products, allowing the family to save and invest in education, materials, and possible new ventures. We learned that there are hundreds of farms following a similar model in Phu Tho province, and many more scattered across the entire country. An integrated and intensive system such as VAC already gives farmers advantages in the race against climate change: they do not rely on one single crop for their income, but many; and greenhouse gas emissions are reduced thanks to nutrient cycling and intensification instead of expansion.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="p2"&gt;In other parts of Asia, farmers are embracing mobile technologies. IRRI's &lt;a href="http://webapps.irri.org/nm/phmobile"&gt;NMRiceMobile application&lt;/a&gt; helps farmers and extension workers decide what kind of fertiliser to apply, how, and when. The app has taken off in the Philippines and there are plans to develop a similar one for Vietnamese farmers. Not only does the app provide useful guidance for day to day decision making, it also collects vital information from farmers about the size and scope of their activities. This gives researchers insights and data, including the ability to calculate greenhouse gas emissions from rice production.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="p1"&gt;These are just two examples of many. Campbell pointed to the need for cross-regional learning: “we need to use the best knowledge available to develop approaches that can be scaled up to reach hundreds and thousands of vulnerable farmers around the world."&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="p2"&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Learning from successful initiatives outside the region&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="p2"&gt;The foundations for strong, sustainable, smallholder agriculture have been laid by Southeast Asian governments and their agencies, CGIAR partners, universities, and farmers. CCAFS plans on building on this, bringing together tools, approaches and knowledge that the program's scientists and partners are testing in other parts of the world. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="p2"&gt;In East and West Africa, &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/node/1644"&gt;researchers and farmers are taking a journey to the future&lt;/a&gt;, to identify analogue sites that can generate lessons for adaptation. In India, CCAFS Southeast Asia is &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/weather-index-insurance-new-age-risk-management-solution"&gt;working with the private sector and farmers to develop insurance products&lt;/a&gt; that can reduce farmers' vulnerability to heat and drought-induced crop failures. Index-based agricultural insurance schemes may be an important tool for helping farmers innovate in tough times.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="p2"&gt;So when Vietnam's Agriculture leaders cut the ceremonial ribbon with leaders from CCAFS, IRRI and CIAT they ushered in a new era of cooperation, but more importantly, they opened the door to a more food-secure future in this region&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="p1"&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote class="twitter-tweet"&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23ccafsSEA"&gt;#ccafsSEA&lt;/a&gt; officially open along with @&lt;a href="https://twitter.com/ciat_"&gt;ciat_&lt;/a&gt;Vietnam office. Deputy Minister of Ag cuts the ribbon cc:@&lt;a href="https://twitter.com/riceresearch"&gt;riceresearch&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href="http://t.co/7M61ug27uu" title="http://twitter.com/cgiarclimate/status/331708664249450496/photo/1"&gt;twitter.com/cgiarclimate/s…&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;— CGIAR Climate (@cgiarclimate) &lt;a href="https://twitter.com/cgiarclimate/status/331708664249450496"&gt;May 7, 2013&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read more:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Press release, 7 May 2013.&amp;nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/news/ccafs-program-news/climate-change-research-hub-opens-vietnam" title="Climate change research hub opens in Vietnam" class="node-title-link"&gt;Climate change research hub opens in Vietnam&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;View more pictures&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;hr /&gt;
&lt;p class="p2"&gt;&lt;em&gt;Vanessa Meadu is Communications and Knowledge Manager for the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). The CCAFS Southeast Asia Program is led by the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). The CCAFS lead CGIAR center is the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT).&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CgiarClimateBlogs/~4/wyYzrBseg7Y" height="1" width="1"/&gt;</description>
     <comments>http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/asias-rice-bowls-gets-new-ally-climate-fight#comments</comments>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/amkn">AMKN</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/cassava">cassava</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/ciat">CIAT</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/irri">IRRI</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/rice">rice</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/vietnam">Vietnam</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/research-highlights">Research Highlights</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/region/southeast-asia">Southeast Asia</category>
 <georss:point>21.32264 105.122681</georss:point>
 <pubDate>Wed, 08 May 2013 16:22:48 +0000</pubDate>
 <dc:creator>Vanessa</dc:creator>
 <guid isPermaLink="false">2009 at http://ccafs.cgiar.org</guid>
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    <title>Smart made even smarter: Gender addressed in new brief on climate smart agriculture</title>
    <link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CgiarClimateBlogs/~3/pY-wtpmETLw/smart-made-smarter-gender-addressed-new-brief-climate-smart-agriculture</link>
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                    &lt;a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/cgiarclimate/8671408004/in/photostream" rel="nofollow" class="caption"&gt;New brief on climate smart agriculture brings in gender as a concept, highlighting the importance of addressing social norms which influences participation and benefits from agricultural projects. Photo: K. Trautmann&lt;/a&gt;        &lt;/div&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;by Kristi Foster&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Livelihood- and climate focused agricultural practices help farmers to sustainably increase their farm productivity and build resilience to climate change, while contributing to mitigation. But how does this type of farming — commonly known as climate-smart agriculture or CSA — interact with gender in real-life communities?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the newly released policy brief, &lt;a href="http://hdl.handle.net/10568/27836"&gt;Addressing Gender in Climate-Smart Smallholder Agriculture&lt;/a&gt; researchers from &lt;a href="http://www.care-international.org/"&gt;CARE International&lt;/a&gt;, the CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and &lt;a href="http://www.worldagroforestry.org"&gt;the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)&lt;/a&gt; share their insights on gender. The brief highlights the importance of a flexible learning approach in advancing gender equity goals and improving outcomes for farmers and projects.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.careclimatechange.org/carbon-finance-initiatives/sacc"&gt;The Sustainable Agriculture in a Changing Climate (SACC)&lt;/a&gt; project, on which the policy brief is based, has gleaned several important insights into gender and CSA:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;!--break--&gt;&lt;!--break--&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;For both&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;men and women, &lt;strong&gt;livelihood benefits&lt;/strong&gt; such as enhanced incomes, access to credit, and fuelwood are key motivators to adopt sustainable practices.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Social norms&lt;/strong&gt; and intra-household &lt;strong&gt;decision-making and bargaining&lt;/strong&gt; influence participation and benefits from agricultural projects.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Achieving greater participation of women in projects needs a focus on social &lt;strong&gt;structure&lt;/strong&gt;, social &lt;strong&gt;relations&lt;/strong&gt; and women’s capacity to &lt;strong&gt;make their own decisions and act on them&lt;/strong&gt;.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Providing &lt;strong&gt;new spaces&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;for men and women to participate together in decision-making&lt;/strong&gt; can be more beneficial than working with women and men as separate groups.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Non-cash benefits&lt;/strong&gt;, including improved household communication, new roles and responsibilities for women and improved community relationships, are valued highly by men and women alike.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The SACC project also highlighted just how dynamic and nuanced gender and social differences are within communities, a point echoed in a recent online learning event hosted by the FAO. In his presentation on ‘&lt;a href="http://www.fao.org/climatechange/36149-04309e3dff618141347ade2c83c623656.pdf"&gt;Gender and agroforestry – ownership of trees in the context of climate change&lt;/a&gt;’&lt;strong&gt;,&lt;/strong&gt; David Edmunds, co-author of a recent &lt;a href="http://www.ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/new-paper-outlines-gender-strategy-pro-poor-mitigation-research"&gt;pro-poor mitigation gender strategy&lt;/a&gt;, said gender dynamics vary depending on farmers’ socioeconomic conditions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“…you can’t walk into a farm landscape and ask who owns this land and understand everything about the access and use rights… It differs among men and women, wealthy or poor farmers, older and younger people.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.worldagroforestry.org/newsroom/highlights/gender-connection-climate-smart-agriculture"&gt;Learn more by reading the whole story on ICRAF's blog.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;hr /&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Download and read the policy brief&lt;/strong&gt; "&lt;a href="http://hdl.handle.net/10568/27836"&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;Addressing Gender in Climate-Smart Smallholder Agriculture"&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;em&gt;by Quinn Bernier, Phil Franks, Patti Kristjanson, Henry Neufeldt, Agnes Otzelberger and Kristi Foster&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.ccafs.cgiar.org/gender"&gt; CCAFS work on gender is never finished - &lt;em&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://hdl.handle.net/10568/27836"&gt; &lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.ccafs.cgiar.org/gender"&gt;Get the facts and latest insights:&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Read a new, comprehensive story on gender activities from across the CGIAR: &lt;a href="http://www.cgiar.org/consortium-news/bridging-the-gender-gap-in-climate-change/"&gt;Bridging the gender gap in climate change&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CgiarClimateBlogs/~4/pY-wtpmETLw" height="1" width="1"/&gt;</description>
     <comments>http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/smart-made-smarter-gender-addressed-new-brief-climate-smart-agriculture#comments</comments>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/gender">gender</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/icraf">icraf</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/integration-decision-making/knowledge-action">Knowledge to Action</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/field">From the field</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/ongoing-research">Ongoing research</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/cgiar-content-subject/climate-change">Climate change</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/cgiar-content-subject/gender">Gender</category>
 <georss:point> </georss:point>
 <pubDate>Wed, 08 May 2013 10:36:43 +0000</pubDate>
 <dc:creator>Cecilia</dc:creator>
 <guid isPermaLink="false">2008 at http://ccafs.cgiar.org</guid>
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  <item>
    <title>Predicting the unpredictable: variable forecasts for variable weather</title>
    <link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CgiarClimateBlogs/~3/nhuPKybcVmA/predicting-unpredictable-variable-forecasts-variable-weather</link>
    <description>&lt;fieldset class="fieldgroup group-blog-image-header"&gt;&lt;div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-blog-header-img"&gt;
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            &lt;div class="field-item odd"&gt;
                    &lt;img  class="imagefield imagefield-field_blog_header_img" width="500" height="332" alt="storms climate variability weather forecasts climate change patterns" src="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/4386972480_217b069a9e.jpg?1367497920" /&gt;        &lt;/div&gt;
        &lt;/div&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div class="field field-type-link field-field-blog-image-caption"&gt;
    &lt;div class="field-items"&gt;
            &lt;div class="field-item odd"&gt;
                    &lt;a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/ciat/4386972480/" rel="nofollow" class="caption"&gt;Helping farmers to predict rainfalls and seasonal weather patterns is a necessary step towards increasing global agricultural and securing local livelihoods. Photo: N.Palmer (CIAT)&lt;/a&gt;        &lt;/div&gt;
        &lt;/div&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;/fieldset&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Edited by Lucy Holt&lt;/em&gt; &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Irregular climatic variations are a major problem for agricultural production. However, knowledge on weather patterns can allow for the development of seasonal management strategies that account for weather patterns, even as they oscillate. Ultimately, this helps to secure farmers livelihoods.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are many ways of producing this knowledge. In Senegal, the CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/senegal-farmers-use-forecasts-combat-climate-risks"&gt;has paired local farmers with meteorologists&lt;/a&gt; to show the combination of indigenous knowledge and scientific knowledge can equal more than the sum of its parts.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Now, in the Andes, CCAFS has teamed up with &lt;a href="http://ciat.cgiar.org/"&gt;International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)&lt;/a&gt;, the &lt;a href="http://www.inpe.br/ingles/"&gt;National Institute for Space Research (INPE)&lt;/a&gt;, Brazil, and &lt;a href="http://www.minagricultura.gov.co/inicio/default.aspx"&gt;Colombia´s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADR)&lt;/a&gt;, to found the project: Seasonal climate forecasts for agricultural crop and risk management.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;!--break--&gt;&lt;!--break--&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The project seeks to propose a methodology that combines the seasonal climate forecasts of the regional climate Eta Model, maintained by INPE, with the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT), developed by the &lt;a href="http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt"&gt;International Research Institute for Climate and Society&lt;/a&gt; (IRI), as a starting point to produce seasonal forecasts of crop productivity.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The &lt;a href="http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=514&amp;amp;objID=7264&amp;amp;qid=98704463&amp;amp;rank=1&amp;amp;parentname=SearchResult&amp;amp;parentid=1&amp;amp;mode=2&amp;amp;in_hi_userid=2&amp;amp;cached=true"&gt;Climate Predictability Tool (CPT)&lt;/a&gt; is a package that facilitates the construction of seasonal climate forecast models, investigations into model validation and producing forecasts given updated data. The CPT design has been tailored to produce seasonal climate forecasts using model output statistic corrections to climate predictions from general circulation models, or to produce forecasts using fields of sea-surface temperatures. Although the software is specifically tailored for these applications, it can also be used in more general settings to perform canonical correlation analysis or principal components regression on any data for any application.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On April 25-27th, the &lt;a href="http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.org/worketaiv/"&gt;Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Agricultural Crop and Risk Management&lt;/a&gt; team held a training session with a number of invited institutions to widen awareness and knowledge of the CPT tool, establish the inter-institutional links which will be necessary to successful apply the tool to agricultural risk management, and ultimately construct a methodology which will apply seasonal climate forecasts with the CPT to improve agricultural output.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.org/training-related-to-the-climate-predictability-tool-cpt-25-27-april-2013/"&gt;Read more about the Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Agricultural Crop and Risk Management project here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;hr /&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Interested in climate information and forecasting? Learn more through about the &lt;a href="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/our-work/research-themes/managing-climate-risk"&gt;CCAFS Theme: Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk&lt;/a&gt;. Lucy Holt is a Communications Assistant at CCAFS CU Office. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CgiarClimateBlogs/~4/nhuPKybcVmA" height="1" width="1"/&gt;</description>
     <comments>http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/predicting-unpredictable-variable-forecasts-variable-weather#comments</comments>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/tags/ciat">CIAT</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/adaptation-future-climate">Adaptation to future climate</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/category/climate-risk">Climate risk</category>
 <category domain="http://ccafs.cgiar.org/cgiar-content-subject/climate-change">Climate change</category>
 <georss:point> </georss:point>
 <pubDate>Thu, 02 May 2013 12:32:00 +0000</pubDate>
 <dc:creator>Lucy</dc:creator>
 <guid isPermaLink="false">2006 at http://ccafs.cgiar.org</guid>
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