CGIAR Climate Blog

CCAFS scenarios engage regions to plan for uncertain futures

Joost — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 12:35:21 +0000

The development and use of scenarios helps reveal key issues around improving future food security, environments and livelihoods. Artwork Copyright Mouvine Were.

The need for strategic, concerted action for improved food security, environments and livelihoods in the developing world is a major challenge. We live in a time when changing conditions and risks associated with climate change interact with rapid political, economic and social changes in the world's vulnerable regions.

Attempts to predict future changes in such complex, rapidly changing conditions are extremely difficult if not impossible. Illusions of predictability are potentially dangerous. Still, governments and non-state actors alike must think and act strategically in the face of uncertainty.

Developing Scenarios

The use and development of multi-stakeholder scenarios provides a powerful way to bring key actors together to explore future uncertainty. Scenarios help rethinking and reorganising current structures to create more robust policies and strategies. Scenarios are different “what-if” accounts of the future, told in words, numbers, images, maps and/or interactive learning tools. Scenarios are not meant to be predictive, but instead to help partners acknowledge future uncertainty and explore the dynamics of widely different but plausible future worlds.

In the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) an extensive scenarios process is organized with key regional policy makers, private sector actors, NGOs, civil society organizations, media and researchers in the three current CCAFS regions – West Africa, East Africa and South Asia. The process is led by CCAFS teams and partners at the University of Oxford's Environmental Change Institute and several CGIAR centres (ILRI, ICRAF, IFPRI and ICRISAT) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). Read more about the Scenarios work.

The goal of the first phase of this process – developing the scenarios- is to capture interactions of key socio-economic uncertainties with climate change effects at the regional level. These uncertainties form the basis for plausible alternate futures that are explored through qualitative means (storylines, system maps) and then quantified in a global context. We collaborate with the teams behind IFPRI’s IMPACT model - designed to examine alternative futures for global food supply, demand, trade, prices, and food security – and IIASA’s Globiom, designed to provide policy advice on global issues concerning land use competition between the major land-based production sectors. To listen to an interview by John Ingram, the Scenarios Leader, on the process of developing scenarios go here.

In East Africa, our pilot region, scenarios development and modelling process is nearing completion. Key regional perspectives were brought together to create four vivid and relevant scenarios. Partners identified regional integration and reactive/proactive policies as key uncertainties that provide the framework for four different scenarios: Ants in the East, Herd of Zebra, Lone Leopards and Sleeping Lions. The workshops focused specifically on mapping key trade-offs and feedbacks in each scenario. The scenarios will soon be posted online. Read more about the progress thus far in East Africa (PDF).

In West Africa, in a workshop in Dakar, Senegal on 2-4 November, A highlight of the workshop according to all who attended was a session that focused specifically on introducing different types of surprises to the scenarios – this session really pushed the boundaries and helped participants create plausible but surprising and challenging futures. A draft interim report is available in English (PDF - 2.7 MB) and French (PDF - 1.7 MB).

Using scenarios in policy development

While the process of developing scenarios is excellent for stakeholders to explore future uncertainties, share perspectives and generate new networks, the scenarios are ultimately to be used by key regional actors for strategic visioning and planning which translates into real collaborative action.

To do this, CCAFS is organizing a series of workshops in 2012 where stakeholders come together to develop a shared goal or vision for their region focusing on improved food security, environments and livelihoods - and then work back from this desired future through the different scenarios. Each scenario represents a different future world in which these stakeholders aim for their goals, with its own specific challenges, limitations and opportunities. The different scenarios help stakeholders explore what strategies and policies are needed to deal with future challenges in terms of socio-economic and political change interacting with climate change. Read more about the link between scenarios and strategic visioning in this paper.

This process will result in strategies and policy options that are robust under different plausible futures. These will then quantified and translated into action plans by the regional stakeholders. Together the CCAFS team and the stakeholders will monitor the implementation of these action plans to evaluate impacts of the process.

The CCAFS scenarios team will also engage with Panos Eastern Africa and Panos West Africa, a regional, information and communication for development non-governmental organisation. Panos will work with CCAFS to produce various media products in relation to scenarios and disseminate them through various channels, such as newspapers, radio and interactive web tools for a wider audiences.

Such a strategic visioning workshop that will use the scenarios developed in East Africa is currently being organized with regional policy makers in the East African Community secretariat in collaboration with USAID. Similar workshops for West Africa will also be organized later in 2012.

Using scenarios in research

Another important function of the scenarios is to feed into further research where the scenarios are used as providing plausible alternate contextual futures, both within and outside CCAFS. Key examples for this use of the scenarios for research are in household modelling for climate change adaptation and research on vector-borne diseases taking place the at ILRI and as a context for local climate change adaptation scenarios. Inputs from the CCAFS regional scenarios into the socio-economic development pathways for the IPCC are being explored.

Through its application across system levels and sectors, the CCAFS scenarios process plays a unique integrative role, ultimately acting as an adaptable service that helps a wide range of stakeholders challenge preconceptions based on the past and act wisely in the face of an uncertain future.

Links to further reading on scenarios and strategic visioning:

Kasper Kok, Mathijs van Vliet, Ilona Bärlund, Anna Dubel, Jan Sendzimir (2011). Combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenario development: Experiences from the SCENES project. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 78.

Ph.W.F. van Notten, A.M. Sleegers, M.B.A. van Asselt (2005). The future shocks: On discontinuity and scenario development. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 72, Issue 2.

Wilkinson, A., Eidinow, E. (2008). Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: A new scenario typology. Environmental Research Letters, Volume 3, Issue 4.

Written by Joost Vervoort, Science Officer for the Scenarios activity. Joost is based at the Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University

Embracing uncertainty, and getting on with climate adaptation

Vanessa — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 15:56:45 +0000

Uncertainty about agricultural impacts is not an excuse for inaction on climate adaptation. Photo: P. Casier (CCAFS).

Yesterday we launched a series of reports which look at the effectiveness of global climate models in predicting agricultural impacts in Africa and South Asia, with a particular emphasis on their ability to predict how climate change will affect key crops in those regions. The results are not surprising: we don't have perfect climate projections for agriculture, and in many cases, the data is quite weak. So what can we do about it?

In a live video seminar yesterday, lead authors Mark New from the University of Cape Town and Richard Washington from Oxford University, noted the weaknesses and emphasized that in some cases, a variety of models can be used together to overcome individual weaknesses. This approach, however, requires quite a lot of time and effort. On the bright side, the authors noted that more and more information is becoming available. The studies also highlight where models need further development, providing a useful guide for research investments. In case you missed it you can still watch a recording of the session.

The overarching message is that this uncertainty not an excuse for inaction. In response to yesterday's report, our colleagues at CIAT have published an insightful analysis of the role of uncertainty. Rather than being something that dogs climate science, uncertainty must be perceived as a basic feature and can even be a positive driver:

...[N]o matter how precisely we try to quantify future climate change and its effects on agriculture, there will always be a margin for error. But this shouldn’t stop us planning for uncertainty itself.

That’s because for doomsdayers, naysayers and all their acolytes, uncertainty is the unifying principle of all climate research.

Only by recognising the certainty of uncertainty – the inevitability of change itself – and letting that drive the research agenda, will we give ourselves the greatest possible chance of boosting food production, and the resilience of the billions of people inextricably linked to it. That means us, by the way. All of us.

The analysis goes on to note how work on adaptation can - and must- continue, even with less than perfect information. The story has just been picked up by Reuters AlertNet Climate and we hope it will help to shed some positive light on many of the innovations for agricultural climate change adaptation that are under development, including getting weather information to farmers, and adapting crops to changing conditions.

Browse and Download the Reports

Read related stories on our blog

Click here to view the presentation by Richard Washington and Mark New shown during the live science seminar

Helping India lead the way in adapting smallholder farming to climate change

Lisen — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 10:52:57 +0000

India is a key actor in the process of promoting agricultural adaptation and mitigation. Photo: P. Casier (CCAFS).

Gaby Kissinger reports from the International Conference on Climate Change, Sustainable Agriculture and Public Leadership in New Delhi, India, where she shared ideas to promote local, Indian national and international leadership in adapting smallholder farming to climate change.

India is already demonstrating tangible leadership in national, regional and local efforts to promote adaptation to climate change, particularly considering the vulnerability of smallholder producers. However, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change processes still needs to define opportunities for mitigation and adaptation. How can India show international leadership in adapting smallholder farming to climate change while continuing the positive efforts at the local and national levels?

The International Conference on Climate Change, Sustainable Agriculture and Public Leadership (7-9 February 2012), brought together a range of people from national governments, and international and national research organisations to discuss these issues.

India demonstrated leadership on current food security issues

The event was hosted by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), in collaboration with the National Council for Climate Change and Sustainable Development (NCCSD), and the Government of India. Participating groups included the Planning Commission of India; CGIAR organizations such as the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), International Centre for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), and World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF); and research entities including many universities and Vigyan Prasar, part of the Indian Department of Science and Technology.

The conference gathered 300 participants to share technical and practical expertise related to climate smart agriculture, including mitigation and adaptation strategies, with the intent of mobilizing tangible outcomes that promote food security, optimize conservation and productivity gains, while minimizing externalities.

To complement India’s leadership in this area, participants discussed the need for reforming traditional extension services to focus beyond crops and thereby include market information; the need for international agreement via the UNFCCC on a mechanism and financing for agricultural mitigation and adaptation; and assistance at all levels to promote the mainstreaming of climate resilient agriculture, among other issues.

Adoption of an international charter - an important step in the right direction

Delegates adopted “The New Delhi Charter” which appeals to international funding communities, governments, academicians, and stakeholders to demonstrate leadership in defining solutions to agricultural mitigation and adaptation, from local to global levels. The Charter proposes vigorous development of:

cross-sectoral policy and institutional frameworks that will support climate smart agriculture, including agroforestry, fishery and livestock-based farming approaches;
early-warning systems for extreme weather or pest events, enhanced research and development in genetic improvement for crop stress tolerance, and guidance to inform wise use of biotechnology and other innovations;
improved farming practices to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while building resilience to climate change impacts;
dissemination of science research to practitioners while also recognizing the value of traditional and local knowledge, and
market-based mechanisms to reward farmers for carbon reduction achievements.

The aim of the conference was to form a new consortium to bring existing entities together to develop an information platform, including best practices; provide focus for on-going advocacy regarding mitigation and adaptation strategies; and to promote leadership in India and beyond to tackle the present and emerging challenges posed by climate change and identify solutions.

Learn more about research activities in South Asia by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).

Learn more about our work on Pro-Poor Climate Change Mitigation.

Read more about India's approach to climate change and food security in this news article from The Hindu.

Gabrielle Kissinger is a principal at Lexeme Consulting. She most recently collaborated with the CCAFS program on the policy brief Linking forests and food production in the REDD+ context.

Japanese research offers insights for reducing climate change from agriculture

Vanessa — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 07:31:02 +0000

Brachiaria forage grass has been shown to inhibit nitrification, helping to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. Photo: N. Palmer (CIAT)

by Vanessa Meadu

Today, CGIAR climate change, agriculture and food security innovations are being shared with Japanese researchers at the Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Research Council Secretariat in the city of Tsukuba.

Dr. Eva Wollenberg, who leads the CGIAR Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) research on pro-poor climate change mitigation, and Dr. Ruben Echeverría, Director General of the International Center for Tropical Agriculture - CIAT will present ongoing work and key findings from the CCAFS program and its international partners. CIAT is the lead centre for the CCAFS program, headquartered in Cali, Colombia.

The session also will include presentations from Japanese scientists currently undertaking work on climate change and agriculture that could potentially contribute to research efforts in developing countries.

One of the objectives of the visit is to strengthen research links between Japan and the international agricultural research community working on climate change and food security. The CGIAR has had a long and productive history working with Japanese partners on a range of initiatives.

A recent research initiative with Japanese links focused on the forage grass Brachiaria humidicola, which was found to inhibit nitrification. Nitrification is a natural process in soil that causes the conversion of nitrogen into nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide.High nitrous oxide levels are directly linked to the seven-fold increase in the use of nitrogen fertilizers in agriculture since the 1970s. In short, tackling nitrification is crucial to tackling climate change.

The research, which was jointly implemented by CIAT in Colombia and scientists from the Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS), and Japan's National Food Research Institute (NFRI), resulted in the discovery and characterization of brachialactone, a chemical compound in the plant's roots. Brachialactone is released into the soil and acts as a biological nitrification inhibitor. Continued research into brachialacone could eventually help to dramatically improve the production of staple food crops. Read more about Brachiaria and its potential benefits for reducing climate change from agriculture on the CIAT blog.

In addition to research links, the Japanese government is an important CGIAR donor, and a member country of the CGIAR Fund Council.

Vanessa Meadu manages communications for CCAFS. Neil Palmer (CIAT) also contributed to this story.

How good are climate models at predicting impacts on crops?

Vanessa — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 08:14:39 +0000

Good climate projections for agriculture can help guide investments in risk management and adaptation. New studies show how to make the most of current data. Photo: N. Palmer (CIAT)

New Reports Offer Insight into Reliability of Future Climate Projections for Agriculture

By Laura Cramer

What effect will rising temperatures and changes in precipitation have on the ability of farmers to grow crops and feed the earth’s growing human population in the coming decades? Three new regionally focused reports explore this question in detail, with a particular focus on those aspects of climate change that will have greatest impact on the crops currently grown in each region: West Africa, East Africa, and the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP). The studies tested General Circulation Models (GCMs) by having them predict already-observed climate conditions, in order to establish the reliability of future climate projections. The studies also tested how well the models perform at predicting how associated crops might grow under future conditions. The reports were produced by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and the School of Geography and the Environment at Oxford University, and looks at the CCAFS program's target regions.

The influences and interactions that control the climate of the West African region are complex, and the study finds that models have difficulty simulating already-observed climate changes, which implies that model projections of the future are highly uncertain. The East Africa study finds significant uncertainty as to changes in severity and frequency of extreme events, which could have substantial impacts on crop yields and food production. In the IGP region, there were marked contrasts between scenarios for locations suitable for cultivation of key crops for food and livestock feed in irrigated vs. rain-fed situations.

Within the IGP, it is critical that temperatures remain within a certain range to ensure successful harvests. For example, wheat requires different temperatures at different stages of its growth and development for optimum yields. In general, temperatures need to fall between 3.5 – 35 °C, with the optimum temperature being between 20 – 25 °C. Below or above the optimum temperature, seed germination decreases. Much of the IGP currently experiences temperatures in this optimum range for six months of the year, but rising temperatures may reduce many areas to five, four, or even just three months within the temperature thresholds (see Figure 1). These changes could have significant impacts on wheat yields and productivity across the IGP.

As well as testing the models individually, the researchers ran the models together to see how well they performed as an ensemble. This test produced varied results for the three future climate scenarios selected for evaluation. As shown in the figure below, the A2 high emissions scenario (characterized by independently operating nations; a continuously growing population; and regionally oriented economic development) gives the most dire projection of months suitable for wheat production in the IGP. By the 2090s, the projections of the medium emissions scenario, A1B (population reaching 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually declining; balanced emphasis on all energy sources), are similar to the A2 scenario in the reduction of suitable growing months. The low emissions scenario, B1 (population trend as in A1B, introduction of clean technologies, and environmental stability), shows the least reduction in the number of suitable months compared to the current climate.

The figure illustrates the type of projection the ensemble of models can produce. It shows projected changes in areas suitable for wheat (assuming irrigation is available) in the IGP. Without irrigation, the area suitable for wheat production in IGP is projected under all three scenarios to decline by 27% by the 2090s (see Figure J1 in Climate Change in Indo-Gangetic Agriculture: Recent Trends, Current Projections, Crop-Climate Suitability, and Prospects for Improved Climate Model Information). These results indicate that heat stress in the key staple food crops will be a major issue in the medium and long term. Consequently, research and action in this region could focus on finding ways to reduce, or deal with heat stress issues.

The reports highlight the considerable variability between models and between scenarios of future climate predictions. For example, the trend of annual mean temperature in the IGP varies greatly depending on the scenario used. Variability between models for rainfall projections is even greater than that for temperatures. But uncertainty is not an excuse for inaction. In fact, uncertainty of future predictions tells us that countries need to build adaptive capacity to support agricultural communities to adjust to the changing climate as it unfolds, and be prepared for a range of possibilities.

The reports also highlight how the models, despite their individual weaknesses, can be used together to produce useful climate projections. By using an ensemble of different climate models it is possible predict potential future changes such as shifts in crop suitability.

“Ensemble model predictions can overcome many of the individual model weaknesses to help decision makers plan future agricultural activities,” said Dr. Philip Thornton, who coordinated the research for the CGIAR Climate Change program, and based at the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). “This information can guide investments in risk management, adaptation and mitigation research, as well as infrastructural development. These actions are crucial if agriculture is to adapt to a changing climate."

Browse and Download the Reports

Watch a recorded video seminar from the report's authors

Read related stories on our blog

Click here to view the presentation by Richard Washington and Mark New showed during the live science seminar

Laura Cramer is a Program Specialist for CCAFS East Africa Regional Office, based at the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in Nairobi, Kenya.

New project looks to bring weather information to farmers in the Sahel

Cecilia — Mon, 20 Feb 2012 08:10:00 +0000

Workshop participants discussing what has made the weather project in Mali such a success. Photo: R. Zougmoré (CCAFS)

In a harsh and unpredictable environment, reliable weather information is crucial for farmers to successfully grow their crops. By studying a successful weather information program in Mali, climate adaptation researchers and agencies are hoping to learn how to best deploy similar programs in the region, to help reduce the risks faced by smallholder farmers. Highlighted by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) in November, the Mali Meteorological Program has since 1982 shared weather information with over 2500 farmers. As a result, farmers are reporting increased yields and willingness to invest in new technologies.

CCAFS, together with the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the Institute for Rural Economy of Mali (IER) and sub-regional partners (AGRHYMET) recently engaged in a three-day training workshop on the assessment methodology of the Mali Meteorological Program. The Mali meeting kicked off the next few months of survey work; a team will be speaking to the people involved in the project to discover the keys to its success and how similar initiatives could potentially be implemented elsewhere.

Reliable weather information is crucial for food security

According to workshop leader Dr. Robert Zougmoré, this type of project is vital for farmers living in the Sahel area, where extreme weather and climate events could be detrimental to agricultural production.

“The problem is that there is a huge gap between the farmers' immediate needs and the available information and services provided,” he said. “This is why it is important to look into the possibility of taking this successful, pioneering meteorological project and scale it up in the whole Sahel region, so that more farmers could benefit.” Dr. Zougmoré leads the CCAFS West Africa Regional Program.

Watch Dr Robert Zougmoré below talk about coping with climate variability and change in West Africa.

According to a 2011 assessment by the World Resources institute (PDF) the Mali meteorological climate project was the first to reach the farmers directly with necessary information, and taught farmers to measure climatic variables themselves and develop the skills necessary to use climate-related information in agricultural decision-making. There are therefore a lot of knowledge and lessons to be learnt from the project that could be used to develop similar initiatives in other regions.

What needs to be done to scale up?

Mali’s climate information initiative has made several improvements in the life of the farmers, said Mr Daouda Zan Diarra from Mali’s national meteorological service (direction nationale de la météorologie or DNM). However, a comprehensive documentation of the facts and reasons for success and major scientific and institutional constraints encountered need to be worked out if this successful initiative is to be scaled up. Identifying the project’s benefits to participants, how participants received the benefits, and any gaps and needs for large adoption of the project’s products in Mali will constitute a “good enough” output that identify clear points and pathways of impact of this project.

Dr. Robert Zougmoré highlighted the three main components of the upcoming survey:

The field assessment, which aims to collect information from participants and non-participants through focus group discussions and individual interviews;
The institutional assessment which will consist in interviews of project participating agencies and institutions, review of existing data, documents, and records to identify how project has been implemented and methods used;
The science assessment, aiming to define gaps in all scientific aspects of the project and analyze them in the perspective of providing up-to-date scientific tools, methods and information that will be relevant for sound up-scaling-up of the advisory mechanism.

The survey will run from February to May 2012. CCAFS will present the results here on the blog.

Read more about our research on Adaptation through Managing Climate risks.

Climate change models may help spur lawmakers to implement seed treaty

Lisen — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 11:38:17 +0000

A new Climate Analogues tool can facilitate the understanding of climate change and its impact on agriculture and food security. Photo: P. Casier (CGIAR).

by Jeremy Cherfas, Bioversity International.

A new climate change tool will not only help farmers to prepare for the future, it may also spur implementation of the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture.

Although 127 countries rushed to ratify the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture, far fewer have implemented it in national law. The reasons are many, and one that comes up often is that lawmakers don’t actually understand its importance. A planning meeting for a new Bioversity project, Strengthening National Capacities to Implement the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture, funded by the Dutch government, heard this over and over again from representatives of the eight countries taking part in the project. But the meeting also heard about a new tool that could help to raise awareness - the Climate Analogue Tool.

A comprehensive tool, accessible online

Although climate change will bring entirely new climates, more than 70% of the climate patterns expected in 2030 already exist some where on Earth today. The Climate Analogue Tool finds them. Anyone (the tool is online) can ask where on Earth there is currently a climate like the climate expected in 2030 at any given location. This could be used to look for pre-adapted crop diversity and for useful techniques to make use of that diversity. In her presentation of the Tool to the planning meeting, Flora Mer, a researcher at the International Center for Tropical Research (CIAT), drew on an example worked up for the launch of the tool at COP17 in Durban last year.

Climate models predict a one degree C rise in average temperatures during the growing season around the city of Durban. That will result in a 20% drop in yield, according to other studies. How to avoid that? The Climate Analogue Tool suggests looking in northern Argentina and Uruguay, where maize farmers are enjoying good yields under average temperatures three degrees higher than those around Durban.

In her demonstration of the tool, Mer singled out Mongar in Bhutan, showing that maize farmers might consider looking in parts of Brazil, Spain and Tanzania for varieties and useful technologies.

At the meeting, Tashi Yangzome Dorji, from Bhutan, was excited and impressed. “I really like it,” she said. “We’re going to try it.”

Bhutan recently surveyed households across all its ecological zones, and most of them said they had noticed climate change. “They don’t call it that,” Tashi Yangzome Dorji said. “But the rains are more erratic and they note that snow has decreased by 50% over the past 10 years.” Farmers also report an increase in pests and diseases.

“We will use the Climate Analogue Tool to help adaptation,” she added.

While the tool is clearly of primary use to farmers and breeders, helping them to narrow the choice of species and selections for a given location, it could be more broadly useful too. For example, it enables advocates to build convincing stories about the need to access plant genetic resources from other countries and to locate areas that need urgent conservation.

Climate Analogues can help promote international interdependence

Michael Halewood, the Bioversity scientist leading the Treaty implementation project, pointed out that “one of the most frequently cited justifications for the multi-lateral system of access and benefit sharing of the Treaty is interdependence; countries depend on plant genetic resources from other countries. That’s going to increase with climate change. Countries are going to need more access, which means they need the Treaty. Our work helping countries implement the Treaty dovetails beautifully with the Climate Analogue Tool, and use of the tool will be mainstreamed into the research supported by the project.”

Jeremy Cherfas is a biologist and Senior Science Writer at Bioversity International

Innovative ideas wanted for climate change software competition

Cecilia — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 15:22:18 +0000

Receiving climate data and information via a mobile phone app or as a text message might soon be a reality. Credit: IICD

Do you like data and the environment? If yes, then this ongoing competition just might be for you! The World Bank has recently released new data and tools on climate change and is challenging you to develop software applications related to climate change submitted before 16 March 2012. The applications should serve to raise awareness, measure progress, or to help in some other way to address the development challenges of climate change.

Submissions may be any kind of software application, be it for the web, a personal computer, a mobile handheld device, console, SMS, or any software platform broadly available to the public. The only other requirement is that the proposed application use one or more datasets from the World Bank Data Catalog or the Climate Change Knowledge Portal.

If you have any questions related to the competition, then the World Bank is holding an Expert Help Desk live chat event to support the Apps For Climate competition. The online live chat will be on February 14, 2012 from 9 am-12 pm Eastern Standard Time EST (click here to convert time). World Bank climate and data experts will be on hand to answer questions about specific data sets, the competition, and using the data APIs. You can also post questions in advance. For more information visit the World Bank Apps for Climate Resources page.

This story was written by Cecilia Schubert, Communications Assistant

Southeast Asian climate change study finds plenty of options for farmers to adapt

Lisen — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 08:31:34 +0000

Farmers have a lot of options for adapting to new conditions induced by climate change. Photo: N. Palmer (CIAT)

by Lisen Stenberg and Vanessa Meadu

There is no one size fits all solution for climate change adaptation in agriculture. Because climate change will impact agriculture differently all over the world, and have different effects on different crops and farming systems, a wide range of adaptation options are necessary. These begin with relatively straightforward actions such as changing seed varieties and changing planting times, to adopting new methods or techniques, changing to a new crop altogether, and in extreme circumstances, ceasing to farm and moving to a new economic activity.

A new report from the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) highlights opportunities and current initiatives for climate adaptation in agriculture, with a focus on Southeast Asia. The report, "Climate Change Adaptation for Smallholder Farmers in Southeast Asia" (PDF) notes that countries in tropical areas are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Moreover, Southeast Asia has a fast-growing population and is therefore increasingly dependent on agriculture and natural resources. The region has already been experiencing climate change induced phenomena, which enforces the need for adaptation measures.

Watch a film showing how Colombian coffee farmers have had to abandon their plants:

A guidebook designed for development workers

The researchers surveyed existing adaptation activities for farmers in the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia and Laos. The aim of these adaptation initiatives is to help farmers respond to climate change threats such as heat waves, heavy rains and droughts. The researchers found a wide variety of adaptation projects ranging from diversification of income and livelihoods activities to changes in cropping patterns and smarter water management systems. For example, in rain-fed rice farms in the Kandal province in Cambodia, some farmers have split their rice plots into two using different management approaches to address uncertainty in rainfall. Half of the rice plot uses conventional wet-paddy techniques, which can survive heavy rains, and the other half uses a drought-resistant, less water-intensive cultivation technique. The practice helps increase chances of harvest, both in the event of extreme rainfall and variable water availability.

The guidebook provides a useful overview of the main issues behind climate change adaptation in agriculture, including farmers’ lack of information on “best practices” and inadequate technical support. Development workers and project implementers can use this knowledge in order to help shape decisions and initiatives in cooperation with farmers.

Comprehensive approaches to adaptation are important

“Many adaptation options are not only potential responses to climate change, but that they have impact on other parts of the farming process which are affected by conditions other than changing climate,” says Rodel Lasco, lead author of the report. “It is therefore important to take a systematic approach to the options when planning adaptation strategies. Collaborations between a range of scientists- such as economists, climatologists and agriculturists – and farmers is necessary, in order to create conditions for an adaptation process that is participatory, iterative and bottom-up” Dr. Lasco is a climate change scientist at the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) based in Los Banos, the Philippines.

CCAFS household baseline survey shows marginal adaptation measures

The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) recently undertook a massive baseline survey exercise that is helping us to understand the types of adaptations in farming practices that households in Africa and South Asia have already been making in order to deal with the huge demographic, economic and climate-related changes they have experienced over the last decade. Read more about the survey here.

“Similar to the findings of ICRAF's SEAsia work, we found that many households are already adapting to changing circumstances, particularly through livelihoods diversification and changes in cropping patterns, but their changes tend to be marginal rather than transformational in nature, with relatively little uptake of existing improved soil, water and land management practices” says Patti Kristjanson, CCAFS Theme Leader on Linking Knowledge with Action, who helped coordinate the survey. The evidence also suggests that the least food secure households have been making very few agricultural management adaptations and thus merit serious attention.

The lessons gleaned from Southeast Asia, as well as from the CCAFS baseline surveys will provide useful insights for developing and testing adaptation options in East and West Africa and South Asia

Download the full report:

Climate Change Adaptation for Smallholder Farmers in Southeast Asia (PDF) by Rodel D. Lasco, Christine Marie D. Habito, Rafaela Jane P. Delfino, Florencia B. Pulhin and Rogelio N. Concepcion.

Lisen Stenberg is an intern with the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Vanessa Meadu manages CCAFS Communications.

Small farmers can slow greenhouse gas emissions, with the right incentives

Vanessa — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 13:50:17 +0000

Smallholders can play a significant role in the mitigation of climate change. A new report examines how to overcome obstacles that hinder their participation in carbon finance activities. Photo: N. Palmer (CIAT)

Even though smallholders have important roles to play in preventing greenhouse gas emissions and implementing adaptation strategies, international climate finance mechanisms under the UNFCCC have so far been largely inaccessible to smallholder groups. A new report by Tanja Havemann and Veruska Muccione asks how we can ensure that smallholders receive the incentives they need to achieve mitigation.

The report examines the finance and risk-related obstacles that hinder smallholders from participating in carbon finance mechanisms and suggests a framework for prioritizing and aggregating smallholders to achieve mitigation at scale. The author submits that smallholders can play a significant role in the mitigation of climate change, supporting this by:

Defining smallholders in a global context, and detailing their importance to climate change mitigation and adaptation, particularly as aggregated groups managing large areas of land. While reminding the reader of current carbon finance schemes, the author asserts that the issue of scale is important to achieve meaningful results and suggests that incentives linked to terrestrial mitigation can have significant social and economic benefits.
Identifying eight potential sources of funding for smallholder activities and examining risks that smallholders face on a daily basis, compounded by climate change. The author claims that risk management strategies can reduce the incidence and severity of adverse events and may be an important co-benefit when smallholders participate in climate mitigation programmes.
Comparing smallholder versus carbon financier require- ments and providing a general framework for developing approaches for large-scale mitigation activities that include smallholders.
Recommending suitable action to various stakeholders including governments, private investors, donors and policy-makers.

Download: CCAFS Report 6. Mechanisms for agricultural climate change mitigation incentives for smallholders (PDF) by Tanja Havemann and Veruska Muccione