Channel Checkers TV

Milestone Episode 10 - Chips and Retail

Casey Ryan — Fri, 07 Dec 2007 21:23:09 -0800

Here it is milestone episode 10. We never thought we'd get here, but with 10 down we've been right alot and have our covestor record to show for it. In this episode we short a stock for the first time and buy into chip strength due to channel checks about the iphone and the wii.

Using our channel checking strategy we get to BRCM as a good long for the Xmas season. Nintendo Wii is selling out everywhere (2 BRCM components) and iPhones are selling well per our in europe it seems. We see from department stores, to toy stores and obviously at game stores that the Wii is just about the hottest item out there for the second year in a row. We this translating into a BRCM beat for 4Q which analysts and "street geniuses" will start talking about as Xmas gets closer. Our view that end markets for BRCM will outperform in 4Q.

We have conducted channel checks at Sears and Kmart stores. 20% of sales reps reports stores are less busy indicating bearish activity there for 4Q and Xmas season. In addition most stores report pre-Xmas sales are coming and there is lots of excess inventory at the stores. While SHLD has plunged this year we are immune to current price or past performance. We current Q as looking bad for SHLD and expect negative numbers next earnings report and the shares to fall correspondingly.

Stocks in this episode: BRCM and SHLD

Check out Tickermine and TheChannelCheckers

Episode 9 - Wimax, Retail, Eating out America

Casey Ryan — Tue, 04 Dec 2007 13:15:30 -0800

Episode 9 is back on the channel checks from thechannelcheckers on Clearwire, Ann Taylor, Mattel, and O'Charlies Restaurant.

We've checked the new cities where they are rolling out the Clearwire service. It's only $15/month, why isn't it more adopted?

O'Charlies wait time and average bill stats are discussed.

We're discussing the best selling items at KBToys, Mattel is there as a top one. Bratz is close......

The stocks in this episode we talk about are: clwr, s, vg, vz, mot, chux, mat, ann, cri

You can follow our trades over at Covestor.

Episode 8 - Apple, Video Games, Retail

Casey Ryan — Wed, 28 Nov 2007 22:02:25 -0800

Welcome back, it's been a while. Andy was in London where he watched the launch of Apple's iPhone there. We get into the component plays on both the iPhone and Nintendo's Wii. There is some good channel data on, Carters and Liz Claiborne. We also survey KB Toys and ask about the bestselling toy so far this season.

Stocks mentioned. AAPL, SWKS, IFX, BRCM, AMD, MRVL, ANN, CRI, ATVI

All the data is donated from The Channel Checkers and the download for iPod can be found here.

Episode 7 - Weekly Wrapup

Casey Ryan — Sat, 03 Nov 2007 14:40:44 -0700

Here we have our weekly wrapup. It was a wild week on Wall Street and we were in the thick of things, making a new trade on Activision(ATVI). We keep up the checks on the Video game space with Halo 3 still staying ontop, but the Wii and XBOX 360 pulled back to even in the console wars. There is more good info from our Carters (CRI) story of last week and we've pushed into the top 25 for absolute return at Covestor.

More comments on Guitar Hero 3 the city of Chicago. Take a look before Activision reports Monday to get our take and see if you agree.

You can download the original for iPod here.

Episode 6 - Carters, Jetblue, Migo, Apple

Casey Ryan — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 14:29:18 -0700

We've got lots to discuss on this episode. Carters reported better than expected numbers, continued coverage of Jetblue and Virgin, USB devices and software, as well as the iPhone. As we continue to report our findings the channel continues to blow us away with relevant numbers and consensus. We hope to continue impressing our viewers and our Covestor account.

On the money management side check it out we're top 50 rank on Covestor.

As usual you can find the show for iPod here.

Carters(CRI) Beats Estimate

Casey Ryan — Wed, 24 Oct 2007 13:51:51 -0700

Well we knew this was going to happen, Carters posted $.58/share Tuesday beating consensus estimates by $.02. As viewers of the show know, we made the call of $.58 in episode 5 based on the channel checks done on the direct store data. We'll be posting episode 6 tonight where we discuss this in more detail so check back to see our other talking points.

The following is from the earnings call today, but if you watched episode 5 you already heard this from us days before the rest.

"Solid performance for Carter’s in quarter in a very difficult environment. We had overall revenue increase of +9.6% and a comp increase of 4.1%. We now have had positive comps in each of the last five months in addition to each quarter this year. By product category, baby comped up 20% and accessories are up 13%. Sleepwear in total was a -3.8 for the quarter but +30 in Fall product. Playwear in total was a -6.4 for the quarter but +2 in Fall product. We missed sales by having low inventory in Spring sleepwear and playwear which would have driven clearance sales in July and August. Our Fall product performed, our miss really was in not having enough inventory in Spring carryover.

Heading into quarter four, we are in good shape regards to inventory. We have the appropriate inventory levels that are needed to drive the business. That being said, we still have opportunity to maximize efficiencies in the planning and allocation of inventory, especially on a per door basis but feel good that we have the inventory necessary to drive the business. We can no longer use this as an excuse."

Hmmm no clearance sales...didn't we say that. Check back for episode 6

UPDATE Episode, Carters is a Buy

Casey Ryan — Fri, 19 Oct 2007 12:27:06 -0700

As data kept arriving from our survey on the last show, the verdict was in Carters is a buy. We bought the stock on Tuesday, as reflected in our Covestor account, and thought that we needed to let you know why. Check out this episode for the gritty details of why, based on updated channel data, we jumped into the children's clothing company.

Carters (CRI)

iPod video can be found here, but if you want to "donate" you can buy the episode here.

Episode 4, Best Buy:Carters

Casey Ryan — Tue, 16 Oct 2007 17:07:09 -0700

Episode 4, is fresh baked data right out of the oven on Best Buy(BBY) and Carters(CRI). There is still banter going back to our survey on the Xbox and what other plays can be made there, Sandisk, AMD, and Samsung.

Carters seems to be busy without any need for "sale" items as we move into the holiday season. What could the implications be?

We also get into the business of Best Buy and the Geek Squad, acquired in 2002, as it relates to demand for computers and consumer retail. Can MSFT be to blame to the lack of activity of the Geeks?

What are the options out there for video hosting sites, besides youtube, and who do we think is cool. What about that Vudu box and Sling Media. Could they be a target for a Tivo acquisition?

Originally taped October 15, again all the information is provided by TheChannelCheckers. You can find the Quicktime video here.

Episode 3, optionsExpress

Casey Ryan — Fri, 12 Oct 2007 07:31:13 -0700

Welcome back for episode 3. This show is information packed, we talk about Limelight Networks(LLNW), Akami(AKAM), Activision(ATVI), and optionsExpress(OXPS). We make a bold call on the number of Darts traded, but think it's accurate. We wrap up with the Vudu box and Unbox from Amazon.

At CCersTV we also trade on the stock calls that we make on the show. We discuss Covestor and our performance to date.

Check out the show, there's lots of information nuggets in there for the street.

All data is based on information from The Channel Checkers, originally recorded October 11, 2007. A higher resolution video can be seen here.

Preview of tomorrow's show

Casey Ryan — Wed, 10 Oct 2007 22:50:55 -0700

Tomorrow we'll be back for a mid week(ish) episode about the DARTS data for Options Express. Last month we were right on the numbers, let's see where we end up this month. Forecast is to be up 4% over last month, based on the post over at TCC.

Tune in tomorrow to find out about optionsXpress numbers and the final results from the Halo 3 channel check.