Charts and Market Perspectives from Milo-Dino

Week starting 4th May 2015

2015-05-04T08:26:00.000+08:00

Just remembered, I haven't been updating this blog even though I still send newsletters every week.

#Dow & S&P

#STI

#Gold

#Oil

Week starting 15th Mar 2015

2015-03-15T23:23:00.000+08:00

#Dow & S&P

Weekly S&P

#DAX

#HSI

#STI

#Gold

#Oil

Week beginning 2nd March 2015

2015-03-02T00:44:00.001+08:00

Sorry I forgot to put up the charts the last couple of weeks.

Here's wishing everyone a prosperous Chinese New Year

#Dow & S&P

#DAX

#HKSE

#STI

#Gold

#Oil

Week beginning 9th February 2015

2015-02-09T02:14:00.005+08:00

#Dow & S&P

#STI

#Gold

#Oil

Week beginning 26th January

2015-01-26T10:31:00.001+08:00

#Dow & S&P

#STI

#Crude Oil

#Gold

Charts for week beginning 19th Jan 2015

2015-01-19T00:50:00.004+08:00

#Dow & S&P

#STI

#Oil

#Gold

Week starting 12th Jan

2015-01-12T08:46:00.004+08:00

#Crude Oil

#Dow Jones and S&P500

#STI

#SSE

Lack of updates

2014-11-30T23:05:00.001+08:00

Hi all,

I haven't been diligently updating this blog but will do so come 2015.

I am starting to conduct small size workshops and just started a blog for it. It can be found at the following address: http://milofata.blogspot.sg/

Come 2015, I will also look to launch a paid weekly email service to people whom are interested. This blog will also be updated with some contents from that email. (wouldn't be fair to those who pay if I posted everything here online)

Thanks and have a blessed Christmas ahead.

Been a long time since I last posted.. (Mewah and GP batt)

2014-02-21T06:29:00.004+08:00

It's been along time since I posted any TA or FA here. Been doing that on Hardwarezone forums instead.
I'll try to share here some of my personal charts here this year. (the forum has largely been TA on request instead)

Mewah

I got intrigued when my dad was mentioning he was interested in palm oil related stocks since CPO has been going up. I did my check on CPO prices and yes the prices have been rising since October last year. It also coincided with a strong rally these few days by palm stocks like Indoagri, Goldenagri and Wilmar. It was then I noted Mewah hasn't moved abit and set about to look at the charts.

Seems to me that Mewah has consolidated for quite awhile and there's actually a really big triangle stretching all the way from 2012!.

It looks like Mewah did a mini breakout on really low volume yesterday.

Wondering if it's a rally to come..

GP Batt

There's no real chart to analyse for this as it has been on a downtrend for the longest time since 2010...
The interesting thing was that they issued rights recently and as a result the price dropped from 80+c to a low of 54c after ex-rights. Out of curiosity, I went to look at their fundamentals. I noted the following:

1) Loss on latest Q3 results as a result of impairment of receivables from a customer whom can't pay up. If not for this one-off impairment, Q3 would have been profitable.

2) NAV was at $2.30 per share! This was before rights issue. After rights, the NAV off hand, should be around $1.60-1.70. I noticed that they had very small number of shares in the market... just over 100 million... that's the reason why it's illiquid I guess

3) So why are they doing the rights issue? Well they got a bank loan that's due within 12 months and thus they needed the cash to pay off. As a result, they raised rights as well as sold of a property.

4) Sale of property. They sold a property within Q4 and is expected to book a gain of $9million. Based on the increase in shares after rights to about 150million, this translated to earning of about 6c per share in Q4's results! But don't expect any special dividends since the proceeds should be for payment of the bank loan mentioned earlier.

5) Shareholding. It is noted that GP Industries holds 50% of GP battery and GP Industries have just started to buy shares in GP Battery after XR. They have also been scooping up the rights on the market. If they believe it's cheap, I believe it is too....

As such, I actually bought in 10 small lots at 57c a few days ago with the intention to keep until the price rises back up.

Tee Land IPO (analysis of TEE international)

2013-05-10T02:07:00.000+08:00

I posted my analysis on my thread on HWZ on 26th April and I'll repost it here
http://deluxeforums.hardwarezone.com.sg/stocks-shares-indices-92/milos-ta-discussion-sharing-thread-4064190-141.html#post75803805

TEE plans to spin off TEE land with minimum market CAP of $150M

Currently as at 30th Nov 2012, TEE international has 422.3m shares. This implies a market cap of S$160.5m based on 38c per share.

From 2012 annual report (refer to note on segment reporting), just looking at external sales, we can see that approximately 90% of revenue comes from the engineering arm whereas only 10% comes from the real estate arm (ie TEE land)

Assets wise, TEE land takes up about 79% of assets in TEE international's books.

Using assets to calculate TEE international's potential spinoff value:
Assume TEE land spinsoff with $150m market cap.
Therefore TEE international should be worth = (150m/79%) = $190m market cap
Working back based on 422.3m shares, TEE price should be about 45c! (7c upside)

PS: TEE has hit 44.5c today. I'm vested at different levels and average below 40c. Based on my workings is 45c but I have heard that they might push higher so that there's some "leeway" or "premium" to the price.
TEE international AGM is scheduled for 15th May where the required dilution needs to be approved by shareholders

Eu Yan Sang Chart

2013-05-10T01:58:00.004+08:00

Ginseng chiong ah!

Reported good results couple of days ago and seems to have broken out of the inverted head and shoulders with high vol!
Clear of all MAs and the neckline

Cleared the 100weekly ma at 67c which posed a problem yesterday.

Cleared all monthly MA with MACD crossing over!

Looks good and wondering if it will last. :s12:

Vested yesterday at 66c

STI and Reits yield as end of Feb

2013-03-08T03:08:00.003+08:00

Hey guys, was abit lazy to update here but was regularly posting on hardwarezone with my TA opinions.

Anyway, here's the yield:

Sky Petrol FA by request.

2013-01-28T01:53:00.001+08:00

Sky petrol request on HWZ

This counter was hit by both US downgrade (Aug 2011) and EY's resignation as auditors (Oct 2011) due to the CEO's other company in US being investigate for fraud.

Subsequently Grant Thornton was hired as auditors and gave an unqualified opinion. The Audit Committee had also done an internal review and issued a statement that the cash in China is real.

Moving on the announcement late last year.
THE PROPOSED DISPOSAL OF 49% EQUITY INTEREST OF XINGHAI AND PROFIT WARNING FOR FOURTH QUARTER

They are selling the company at a loss and Q4, YTD figures wouldn't look good with the impairment expense. Looks like they are cutting loss since the owners don't see eye to eye and business doesn't seem that profitable. Will be interesting to see what they really do with the proceeds.

Q3 results

Much lower due to currency... Also, I don't know what the $3m loss on disposal earlier in the year is (I didn't go dig). I does make me wonder if the company is overpaying for assets, not buying the right assets or if they are not taking care of their assets.

Personally I don't like to see line items like "Due to director". Is the company really short of cash to owe director money?

I haven't seen "customer relationships" being capitalised as intangible assets before... I wonder if it's an attempt to buff up the balance sheet.

This disposal mentioned earlier will hit EPS of ~3c and NTA of 4c.

The good thing is profit margin is high for rental of rigs. But the bad thing is the lowered renewed rental. If they can use the proceeds from the sales to renew their rigs to increase efficiency, that will help the prospects.

Do note they are moving out of the transportation line with the sale of the ship.

Overall... my advice is not to invest too much into this company even though EPS and NAV might be attractive. They need to increase their revenue from rental of rigs in 2013.

Jesse Livermore's Rules of Trading

2013-01-22T23:38:00.001+08:00

In my opinion, these are some golden rules to remember

Stock Trading Rules

Buy rising stocks and sell falling stocks.
Do not trade every day of every year. Trade only when the market is clearly bullish or bearish. Trade in the direction of the general market. If it's rising you should be long, if it's falling you should be short.
Co-ordinate your trading activity with pivot points.
Only enter a trade after the action of the market confirms your opinion and then enter promptly.
Continue with trades that show you a profit, end trades that show a loss.
End trades when it is clear that the trend you are profiting from is over.
In any sector, trade the leading stock - the one showing the strongest trend.
Never average losses by, for example, buying more of a stock that has fallen.
Never meet a margin call - get out of the trade.
Go long when stocks reach a new high. Sell short when they reach a new low.

Other Useful Stock Trading Guidance

Don't become an involuntary investor by holding onto stocks whose price has fallen.
A stock is never too high to buy and never too low to short.
Markets are never wrong - opinions often are.
The highest profits are made in trades that show a profit right from the start.
No trading rules will deliver a profit 100 percent of the time.

ThBev breakout!

2013-01-22T23:36:00.000+08:00

I bought into ThBev this morning at 46c after it broke out.
On hindsight, I was too eager to dash in... but I believe I'm trading on the right direction

The daily charts show 45c as the all time high. This morning 46c made a new all time high. Closing at 45.5c shows a clear breakout and a all time high close.

Weekly shows the same except it has hit the bollinger bands. But fear not.. I believe that's much more upside in this.

I'm trading this as I believe in Jesse Livermore's rule... "Go long when stocks reach a new high. Sell short when they reach a new low."

Ausgroup Bull flag?

2013-01-22T23:24:00.000+08:00

As for Ausgroup...

It looks like forming a flag... breakout if close above 65.5c... potential 15c move....

Golden Agri on request from HWZ

2013-01-22T23:21:00.001+08:00

Long time never look at GAR liao but GAR is one of those which likes to follow trendlines.
Just look at this messy chart that i kept adding on..

GAR shows support at 62c and bounced from there. However, immediate resistance is at around 64-65c.

Breaking 62c will see 60c at least.... after that... better redraw chart n see.

Weekly also shows resistance at 64c then 68c...

Not looking good for palm oil stocks based on FA as well....:s22:

Update on portfolio

2013-01-18T00:41:00.003+08:00

Its been sometime since I updated.

I sold Midas at 52c on Tuesday as it felt like distribution was happening and I didn't like the fact it refused to close above 52.5c for longer. Today it gapped up on the contract news but got sold back to start point... looks like sell on news to me. Those vested, please take note.

I sold my China Merchant Pac at 88c last week cause I felt it was exhausted. Right now it's still pretty firm but loss some ground from 89c peak.

Interra I had previously exited at 44c before it hit 46c. 40-41c support must hold if not it's not looking good.

Dumb trades
I made some dumb trades with the profit i gather this month...
- I took a position on Yoma at 72.5c but cut at 71c when 72c support broke
- I took a position on Mermaid at 38c when it looked like will burst past long term resistance but so far failed and I threw back on contra at 37c. However, there might seem to be a buyer at 36.5c as 36c isn't tested so far.
- I still hold on to Genting which I bought at 1.47 above the double bottom breakout but need to watch closely incase it breaks the neckline
- I tried momentum trading on TT international today for the first time... and I'm stuck at 20.5c... it has huge potential if 21c is broken.. but so far, there seems to be a hidden seller :(

Passive portfolio
- I subscribed to 5lots of olam bonds to keep for the duration unless the price can be so good for me to dump away
- I bought 10 lots of K-green today at 1.055 but seems like UBS is the seller to me (eeks!) Results are next Monday with expected dvd at 4+c.. I might sell before dvd but see how general market sentiment is. *This isn't on my Reits and dvd stocks spreadsheet as I just discovered it a couple of days ago*

I will update soon if there are any interesting charts.

Interra & Midas

2013-01-04T00:33:00.002+08:00

Interra

I bought Interra on afew occasions in Dec.
1st Trade: In 39c out 40.5c
2nd Trade: In 41c out 44c (today)

This is what I saw that prompted me to play... Will consider re-entering on pullback

Midas
I bought in at matching today @ 45c.
This is what I saw...

Both Daily and Weekly show nice inverse head and shoulders breakout. The Daily shows a gap at 52.5c to be filled. The inverse H/S target is 60c.. which happens to be former strong support turned resistance.

The Monthly also shows nice bullish divergence....

Support at 44c and approximately 40c.

STI and Reits Yield as at end of 2012

2013-01-04T00:28:00.001+08:00

Happy New Year everyone!!

Here's the monthly update... sorry this is abit late.

Portfolio updates

2012-12-25T16:16:00.003+08:00

Merry Christmas all!!!

Some updates:

Last week I sold off 2 trading positions and 1 holdings as I wasn't feeling comfortable holding too much equities at this time.

Sold off:
1) Cordlife. Had vested at 54c about 2 weeks ago and sold off at 55.5c as it proved to be a stubborn resistance. I had intially vested as I thought I was seeing an Elliot Wave 5 forming... It's still possible as long as 51c isn't breached

2) PCI: I mentioned that this was good to hold with dividends and a chance of privatisation by Chuan Hup. But I just felt too heavily invested in the market and decided to reduce my positions. I sold off at 46c although I bought at an average of 46.8c. However, I collected 3c worth of dividends during the time. Resistance remains at 50c

3) Interra. I bought Interra at 39c on 14th Dec as I saw an triangle with a chance of a breakout later since it was consolidating. Subsequently it did make a big move on 21st December and hit 41.5c before closing back at 40.5c. The breakout of the triangle is at >41c. Closing below showed the breakout had failed this time. Thus I threw my lots at 40.5 as I didn't see much buying at 41.5 anyway..

Holdings left in my stash:
1) 35lots of Foreland @ 9.9c
2) 100lots of Infinio @ 1c
3) 1 lot of Wilmar @ $4.98 (kept as a reminder to be discipline in cutting losses)
4) 1 lot of Wilmar (CPF) @ 3.10 (vested for long term)
5) 4 lots of Wheelock @ $1.975 (vested for long term potential)
6) 10 lots of China Merchant Pacific @ $0.755 (bought to build dvd portfolio)
7) 300 lots of Digiland (CPF) @ 0.1c (more of a tikam haha)

Off topic rant on Singtel and Starhub

2012-12-15T19:12:00.001+08:00

I just wrote the following complain email to IDA.... just too frustrating as a customer.

Background

I had be previously been a Starhub Hub club subscriber and started to terminate both the broadband and cable tv subscriptions as I no longer required them. I had kept my Starhub digital voice number active as my parents still use the land number. Subsequently, I decided to cancel this digital voice subscription and move it back to Singtel (it was originally a Singtel number) to replace my current MioTV number. The logic was that, there was no point for me to keep 2 numbers and paying for both when the MioTV number was solely just used for the TV and not used for telephony reasons.

I went down to Singtel "Hello" shop in Westmall around the first week of November to query about making the change and what I needed to do. The queuing took me quite awhile as Iphone 5 was just launched and they didn't have a priority queue for customers who wanted other services other than mobile. I was told to do the following:

1) Cancel Starhub digital voice so that the number can be returned to Singtel.

2) Come back again after it's cancelled so that they can do the processing to streamline my 2 numbers to 1.

3) The number would be unavailable for use during the time of change

Note: Singtel cannot do the number porting on behalf of the customer and requires the customer to liase with Starhub on this. (I'm quite curious why this can't be done between the Telcos since they can easily do it for Mobile lines)

Thus, I went to cancel my starhub line on the 14th November.

After about 1+ week, I went back to Singtel Westmall to check as I happen to be around. They told me that the number hasn't been returned and they can't do anything until Starhub returns the number. She told me to next time call up Starhub to check before wasting time and queuing up again.

This morning, a couple of things happened:

1) I called Starhub to check if the number has been returned to Singtel. The CSO told me over the phone that the number had been deactivated since 16th November and that they have no control over the number.

2) Thus I called Singtel to check since now Starhub is claiming that the ball is in Singtel's court. I explained to the CSO what had happened and was advised that I was to proceed to a Hello shop and complete a Number Porting form to do the porting from Starhub to Singtel. I was very frustrated at this time and was wondering why didn't Singtel tell me this weeks back when I was there??

3) I went back to Singtel Westmall and was served by a friendly CSO (Alvin). I explained my situation and he duly filled in the number porting form. But as he was completing the form, he noted that my number was still with Starhub and told me to get Starhub to cancel the number porting since the number was originally from Singtel. As he went to check with his manager, I took the opportunity to call Starhub and a CSO (Fu Xiang) answered. He repeated to me that the number had already been cancelled and that he needed to check with the operations staff why the number wasn't transferred back. He said he will drop an mail to the department and will inform me once the change is effected. After the call, Alvin advised me that the number returning can take between 2weeks to 3 months!! And that the bottleneck is at Starhub.

Please advise if you can help to expedite this request as it is UNREASONABLE to be required to wait 2 weeks to 3 months just for a simple transferring of numbers. I personally 1 week is already very generous. Imagine, if I'm expecting an important call and number previously provided was now the invalid number? My Dad is also seeking employment and runs the risk of the potential employers calling this invalid number! I feel that I have been very patient with this as it has already been more than 1 month and I have yet to even submit the form to streamline the 2 phone numbers.

Update on Foreland

2012-12-14T22:54:00.000+08:00

First thing first, yes i'm still holding Foreland at 9.9c as mentioned in my post early in March.
Small-investment-foreland

Today, foreland (or forlan as EDMW calls it), made a big surge of almost 25% ! This was following a smaller surge of about 10% the day before. What caused this surge? Probably sector rotation play since China Taisen, Qingmei and even Eratat did big moves today.

The mistake I made was that I was lazy and didn't go ahead to analyse on Foreland's Q3 results (as opposed to what I told myself to do). I had initially wanted to wait for the Q3 results and decide if I wanted to average down. And looking back, I probably might have taken the risk to do so at about 3.0-3.5c... Let me try to present my FA based view on this.

Firstly, let me start by saying that the slide of Foreland is inline with what the whole fabric industry is experiencing. Tighter margins and as a result, losses are made. The executive chairman had also dump some of his holdings during this time.

However, there's a saying that knowledge that FA will provide support and form a base/turning point.

In this case, the turning point was about 3c.

Now let's look at Q3's results.

1) P&L:

Net loss after tax was RMB ~920k. I personally had expected a bigger loss but am still confident that the company will become profitable since the comparison quarter's profits was RMB 54million! The only concern here is the small margin from sales and cost of sales.

2) B/S: This is what I was looking for.

Total Liabilities: RMB ~51million
Cash and cash equivalents: RMB 317million
Supposedly, Foreland need to pay out all current and non-current liabilities right now. Foreland would still have RMB 266million in CASH alone. We aren't even factoring in receivables and fixed assets at all.

Group borrowings are ZERO.

Number of issued shares at end of Q3 is 542,424,199.
If we take the RMB 266m above (after liabilities) and work out the cash per share, it works out to RMB 0.49 per share! (Assuming RMB 5 = SG$1, we have about close to 10cents per share!) The share price when the Q3 results were released was only 3.3c! This alone should have been enough motivation to buy more if you believe the accounts to be true. The auditors are Baker Tilly (whom are a mid tier audit firm)

Lastly, if you like to look at NAV, it's currently at RMB 1.28 = SGD 0.256...

Sigh... Now I can only look on and consider I should average some now or if I should wait for retracement to keep more...

Nov month end STI and Reits update.

2012-12-04T01:42:00.003+08:00

Note that the "dividend stocks" prices are not updated. Only the STI and REITS prices are updated till 30th Nov.

Sheng Siong supermarket!

2012-11-27T06:31:00.001+08:00

Sheng Siong staged a breakout yesterday on high volume. It had hit 50c by midday and there wasn't much action until the last 15mins where 50.5c got eaten up.

It looks like a nice triangle breakout with target around 55c.

We shall see if this turns into true. I'm vested with only 10lots at 50.5c