RICHMOND, Va. – The Virginia Education Wizard has now served more than 200,000 unique visitors since its introduction last spring. Virginia’s Community Colleges launched the Wizard in March as a one-stop resource to help students and parents explore career paths, identify college programs to reach those goals and find ways to pay for continued education.

“I’m delighted that the Wizard has reached this milestone so quickly but I’m not surprised,” said Glenn DuBois, chancellor of Virginia’s Community Colleges. “The worst economy since World War II is pushing people to really think about how to begin or even re-start their career. The Wizard puts a wealth of information right and their hands and makes it so easy to use.”

Since the March unveiling of the Wizard more than 46,200 people have created Wizard accounts. Only one-third of the accounts created came from individuals using Virginia Community College email accounts. More than 40,500 individuals have takes the interests and work values assessment tests. And the average usage session for people visiting the Wizard has increased from seven to eleven minutes.

The number of people using the Wizard is expected to grow in the coming months as the largest partnership in the history of Virginia public education continues to expand the tool to meet the unique needs of people considering the commonwealth’s public four-year universities and public school students beginning in the seventh grade.

Wizard 2.0, scheduled to launch in the spring of 2010, will integrate valuable information from coalition partners and other high-quality data sources, including access to educational programs at community colleges and four-year universities and details about saving for college.

Wizard 3.0, scheduled to launch in the fall of 2010, will allow students to create and store academic and career plans, as well as merge career pathways into those plans. Guidance counselors and teachers also will be able to create Wizard reports about their students.

About the Virginia Education Wizard

The Wizard guides users from finding a career to earning the right job credentials or preparing for continued education. The Wizard’s current features, which will be included in all future versions of the tool, include:

Careers: Users can take Interest and Values assessments to find careers that match their interests. They also can explore a specific job and get real-time details about the demand for those jobs and local salaries.

Programs and Majors: The Wizard details programs across Virginia’s Community Colleges, including majors and careers. Users can investigate courses offered across the state – or just those at their nearest campus.

Paying for College: Users can find out what they can expect to pay at different colleges, then get estimates on how much financial assistance they might receive. The site also details scholarships available solely for community college students.

Transfer: The Wizard outlines pathways to four-year degrees, including guaranteed admission to 25 Virginia institutions. The tool plans, tracks and prompts necessary steps for easy transfers.

Registering with the Virginia Education Wizard is easy. The Wizard’s life-like online guide, Ginny, helps users build their profiles, which the site then uses to tailor information according to users’ interests. Users can create their profiles in a few quick steps that take less than five minutes.

Virginia’s Community Colleges developed the proprietary Wizard with $2.5 million in federal funds. Programming was completed by Richmond-based Chmura Economics & Analytics and internal IT professionals at Virginia’s Community Colleges. The career and jobs features draw in real-time market data pulled from Chmura Economics & Analytics’ proprietary and patented JobsEQ.

About Virginia’s Community Colleges: Created more than 40 years ago, Virginia’s Community Colleges are 23 individual schools located on 40 campuses across the Commonwealth. Nearly half a million students take classes at one of Virginia’s Community Colleges. Together the colleges enroll more than two-thirds of the total public undergraduate population in Virginia. For more information, please visit 

Employment growth foreseen by midyear Employment is one of the most closely watched economic reports because it covers all sectors of the economy.

During this time of economic transition out of recession, it is even more closely watched to provide evidence for when the consumer sector, which makes up about two-thirds of gross domestic product, will begin to increase again, resulting in more spending influence to the economy.

Friday's report from the U.S. Labor Department provided signs of improvement but no growth yet.

Employment fell by 190,000 in the nation in October, and the unemployment rate inched up to 10.2 percent, the highest since 1983.

The job losses are an improvement from the average decline of 645,000 that occurred each month from November 2008 through April 2009, when financial institutions were laying off and consumers were dramatically pulling back on spending.

Similar improvements are evident in the state, although the latest numbers are only through September.

Employment in Virginia fell 15,400 on a seasonally adjusted basis in September, with 3,300 of the jobs lost in the Northern Virginia metro area followed by 2,300 in the Richmond area and 1,900 in the Charlottesville area.

The intensity of job loss in Virginia was greatest in November and December 2008, with an average decline of 21,000 in each of those months.

The Richmond area saw its strongest contraction in October and November 2008 and in February 2009 with an average monthly loss of 7,000 when Circuit City, LandAmerica and Qimonda were closing operations.

The unemployment rate in the state suggests Virginians should be feeling better about job security, which could translate into better retail sales this holiday selling season when compared to the nation.

The unemployment rate peaked in the state at 7.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in June and has since fallen to 6.7 percent in September, compared with a rate that continued to climb in the nation, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (October's results will come out later this month.)

In the Richmond area, the unemployment rate on a seasonally adjusted basis peaked at 8.5 percent in May and has since dropped to 7.5 percent, according to analysis by Chmura Economics & Analytics.

Looking to 2010, we are forecasting employment to start growing by midyear as private-sector businesses start to see a firm demand for their products and services.

Even though this will lead to increased retail sales and corporate taxes, next year will be a challenge for Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell as stimulus funds most likely dry up in the big-ticket programs of K-12 education and Medicaid.

Fortunately, our new governor won't have to start setting aside revenue into the rainy-day fund to prepare for the next recession until fiscal year 2014.

A new tool for the business community could be on the way as Prince William officials and Northern Virginia Community College look to open a workforce development center in the eastern end of the county.

"We are enthusiastically supporting this," Prince William County Supervisor John D. Jenkins (D-Neabsco) said after hearing a presentation about the project last month. "I think it's a bargain for the county to be selected to get this facility. If we don't pledge to support a facility here, I'm confident it would be located elsewhere."

NVCC officials are seeking a $1 million commitment from the Prince William Board of County Supervisors in the next few years to open the center at the community college's Woodbridge campus. The proposed 55,000-square-foot center would be the first of its kind in Northern Virginia and is warranted not only to help companies but to support the roughly 20,000 jobs that are coming to Marine Corps Base Quantico and Fort Belvoir under the base realignment and closure proceedings, said Sam Hill, provost of NVCC's Woodbridge campus.

"These different installations coming here for BRAC really bring a new challenge to the area because they will need all kinds of people who can use" additional training, Jenkins said. "The community college is the primary institution that can provide that."

The center would cost about $29 million to design and build, with Prince William's $1 million commitment helping to leverage state and federal funds, Hill said.

Companies could offer training courses at the center, run retreats or use it as exhibit space if launching a product. Hill said he also envisions the facility having computer classrooms to cater to the area's large information technology community.

"This is about real-time training for businesses and their employees, and it is also about supporting the economic development activity of this region," Hill said. "We are trying to bring good, high-paying jobs and provide qualifying workers for those jobs."

According to a feasibility study conducted by Chmura Economics and Analytics, training can result in a worker earning an additional $1.05 to $8 per hour. Employees who receive training are also about 8 percent more productive at work than those who don't.

The study, which was commissioned by the Northern Virginia Workforce Investment Board, also shows that if the center helped just one to two businesses a year attract or retain 100 workers, the region would have an additional $14 million a year in economic output.

"Part of the reason we [wanted] the study was to see if there was an economic impact associated with" opening a workforce development center, said David Hunn, executive director of the investment board, noting that the study was financed with a roughly $72,000 state grant and federal funds. "Clearly, this shows there is a very positive economic return."

As part of the study, a survey was sent to almost 1,700 businesses in Prince William and southern Fairfax counties, as well as Manassas and Manassas Park. Of the 277 respondents, 14 percent reported paying outside vendors for workforce development, with 61 percent of that spending going outside Prince William.

A development center, Chmura officials said, would keep those dollars local and cut travel expenses companies might incur to send employees for training. Today, the closest workforce development centers are in Stafford County and Hampton Roads.

Hill said he and local officials will spend the coming months trying to secure funding from the General Assembly. If all goes as planned, the center would be operational by summer 2013.

"We've had informal discussions with members of the General Assembly, and they recognize the value this can have to the region," Hill said. "This is all about serving businesses and supporting the economic infrastructure, which is critical to the growth, vitality and quality of life of residents in Northern Virginia."

The dominant banks in the Cincinnati metro area (including the Kentucky and Indiana portions) are Fifth Third with a 31.0% market share and US Bank with a 27.4% share. Both of these banks saw a decline in deposits from June 2008 to 2009, causing a 3.2% drop in overall deposits at FDIC-insured institutions in the metro area. Such a decline is not unusual in the region which has shown to have high volatility in deposits. Changes in deposits can happen for a variety of reasons, including wealth growth in a region, shifts in spending and savings patterns, shifts in investment strategies, and local banking practices such as checking account incentives. Nevertheless, deposits have grown in Cincinnati at a 6.5% average annualized pace from 1999 to 2009, the fastest rate among the six largest metros in Ohio. Further details are found in the Fall 2009 edition of the Ohio Economic Trends

The segments of the local retail market that are tied to the housing market have taken perhaps the biggest hit during the recession.

Sales of furniture/home furnishings and building materials have suffered the worst of the declines in the Fredericksburg area, Christine Chmura told about 210 area business and government leaders during the Fredericksburg Regional Alliance's annual meeting Monday.

She is president of Richmond-based Chmura Economics & Analytics.

Second-quarter sales data from the Virginia Department of Taxation bear out Chmura's message Monday. The second-quarter figures are the latest available.

Taxable sales at furniture and home furnishings stores in the city of Fredericksburg and the counties of Stafford and Spotsylvania were $14.5 million in the three months ending this past June 30. That's a 53.2 percent decline from the taxable sales for that business segment in those three localities during the second quarter of 2006, when housing prices were peaking.

The declines for furniture and home furnishings sales have moderated since then, but were still down 42.7 percent for the three-locality area in the second quarter from the same period in 2007 and 28.9 percent from the same period in 2008.

It's a similar story in the business segment labeled "Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers." Second-quarter 2009 taxable sales for the three-locality area in that segment declined 42.6 percent from the same period in 2006, 30.7 percent from 2007 and 8.6 percent from 2008.

One bright spot for building material sales is a 15.6 percent increase in Stafford between the second quarters of 2008 and 2009. Stafford has been seeing an increase in residential building permits this year, perhaps due in part to the new jobs coming to the Quantico Marine Corps Base in 2011.

Though building materials and home furnishings have been among the most affected by the recession, they're not alone. Overall taxable sales declined in the three-locality area 12.2 percent between the second quarters of 2006 and 2009. Taxable sales during this year's second quarter fell in that area 7.4 percent from 2007 and 4.3 percent from 2008.

They say it's hard to find two economists who agree with each other, and that seems especially true regarding the recession.

For example, in summer 2008, I had dinner with some friends and James F. Tucker, my former boss and mentor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. I asked him if we were in a recession. His answer was the opposite of mine.

Now here we are at what looks to me to be the start of the recovery. I see the continued drop in employment slowing, consumer spending starting to rise, housing improving, factories reporting modest gains in output and the stock market moving ahead.

So I thought this would be a good time to check back in with Tucker to get his take on the state of the economy.

Q. Are you in agreement with forecasts that the recession has ended?

A. No, not entirely. While I believe that the economy has shown some progress recently, there are a few serious trouble spots that need attention before we should talk about a recovery.

One of my reservations right now has to do with consumer spending, which makes up about 70 percent of our gross domestic product. Consumer spending is still significantly below the pre-recession level. Only expenditures for the sales of new housing show any noticeable uptick, and this may be due mainly to the $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers. Retail sales and food services are still down about 9.5 percent from last year, and some of the sales are likely coming from so-called "rainy day" savings.

Perhaps my biggest concern in any discussion on recovery is our current state of unemployment. The latest data show an unemployment rate of 9.7 percent, a figure that is likely to go even higher by the end of this year. I just do not see how we can talk about a recovery without considering our problem of unemployment.

Q. Why do you think the current rate of unemployment is so crucial at this point, when experts feel that GDP, the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity, seems to be growing?

A. Remember, GDP is technically a measure of how much goods and services our economy is producing, and while it might increase for two consecutive quarters, it does not address how well the people in the economy are living. After all, the economy functions for its people, and when we have some 14.9 million, or almost 15 million, workers without jobs and looking for a way to enjoy these goods and services, the economy is not doing well, and any talk about recovery is far from being realistic.

Q. Some observers say new jobs are being created. If this is true, why does the unemployment rate remain so high, and what can we do to improve on this rate?

A. Technically speaking, the unemployment rate will improve only when the rate of the number of people hired exceeds the rate of the number of people fired. Put simply, the nation's employers must hire more people than they lay off.

People are hired when demand from consumers and businesses encourages private and public employers to increase their investment. Currently, the federal government's stimulus program is aimed at increasing demand by funding projects in transportation and a few other areas of activity. This effort has created some jobs and will no doubt create more in the future. But more effort is needed now.

“Today I finally have some good news.” It’s a rare statement for an economist these days.

Nevertheless Richmond economist Chris Chmura took the leap last week, proclaiming in a keynote presentation at the first Hampton Roads Global Business Conference that economic recovery has begun. 

Chmura had to remind the crowd how to react to such news.

“We need some applause,” she said, inciting a reaction. 

About 120 members of the business community attended the event, which featured about 20 speakers in breakout sessions discussing the many facets of doing business globally. Held at the Norfolk Waterside Marriott, the event was presented by Inside Business, the Port of Virginia, the city of Norfolk and Old Dominion University. 

Chmura’s proclamation was backed up that same day when Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke declared that the recession is “very likely over.”

“That’s as committed as you’ll likely see any Fed governor,” said Chmura, president and chief economist of Chmura Economics and Analytics. 

Chmura discussed how the recession unfolded, set into motion by the “proliferation of highly creative mortgages” that were gobbled up both by homebuyers and investors. 

Banks were left with assets on their books that no one wanted to touch, mostly because no one was able to determine their health.

“What happened, I think, is best described as the Toys R Us syndrome,” Chmura said, comparing the unofficial boycott of those assets to the lead paint scare that arose after the toxic substance was found in toys made in China, prompting many Americans to leave such items on the shelf. 

She showed figures that explained why the recession managed to keep from becoming a depression and she pointed to signs that we have mostly hit bottom, allowing a recovery, albeit modest and sluggish, to begin in the third quarter. 

“Even though it was a severe recession, it wasn’t a depression,” she said.

In the 1930s during the Great Depression, unemployment was 20 percent or higher for four years in a row. Nationwide, the unemployment rate stands at about 9.7 percent. 

Signs Chmura sees that things are heading in a better direction include less of a spike in unemployment, a slight uptick in consumption and declines in residential real estate inventories. A sharp decline in factory orders bottomed out a few months ago. 

Chmura’s firm forecasts 1.2 percent GDP growth during the third quarter 2009, helped in large part by the Cash for Clunkers Program. Growth will drop again to 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, Chmura predicts, and will tick up in the first and second quarter of 2010 at 1.4 percent and 1.7 percent growth, respectively.

Her presentation did include risk factors as well that could derail the potentially rosy scene . While consumption is up, income still hasn’t picked up, which could lead to flattening levels of consumption and inventories moving in the opposite direction. Just as positive local headlines appeared last week about the unemployment picture in Hampton Roads, it appears Hampton Roads may be lagging behind the rest of the country as unemployment has not yet topped out in the region, Chmura said. 

The Cash for Clunkers program may displace future sales, particularly Christmas sales of automobiles, adding drag to the recovery. 

International investors could decide to stop investing in U.S. bonds, futher hindering real estate sales. And don’t forget the post-recession fears of inflation and protectionism . 

Questions from the audience showed that some fear a double dip – a recession followed by a slight recovery and then another recession – because some believe the growth we’re seeing now is being propped up only by government stimulus. 

“Certainly there is a chance for a double-dip recession but I’m not looking for that,” Chmura said.

Watch a videocast of Chris Chmura's presentation.

In Virginia and among its metropolitan areas, signs are emerging that the recession is bottoming out. The six-month moving average of initial unemployment claims, for example, has slowed its sharp growth in the state, though the level of claims remains elevated. In addition, the six-month moving average of single-family building permits has begun to slow, being off just slightly in Virginia (-2.6%) over the second quarter of 2009.

Purchase Virginia Economic Trends Now

November 2008

Several local companies announce major cutbacks, affecting hundreds of jobs.

Consumer-electronics retailer Circuit City Stores Inc. declares Chapter 11 bankruptcy Nov. 10.

Title insurer LandAmerica Financial Group Inc. files for bankruptcy two weeks later.

Our expert then: "This time unfortunately, Richmond is likely to be hit harder than the state because of its cluster of finance and insurance firms, the location of the state capital and firms with corporate headquarters that were struggling even before the recession," Christine Chmura, president and chief economist at Chmura Economics & Analytics in Richmond, said in a column published in the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

Chmura now: Employment in the Richmond region, peak to trough, dropped 4.3 percent during the recession. Peak to trough in Virginia, employment dropped 3.3 percent, Chmura said.

"I would expect from the loss of these companies that Richmond will be slower to rebound than the rest of the country," Chmura said.

One bright spot: Expansion at Fort Lee and the Rolls Royce plant in the Tri-Cities area should add to employment levels in the larger Richmond metropolitan area, she said.

. . .

Dec. 1, 2008

The National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession, saying it began in December 2007.

The Dow Jones drops nearly 680 points.

Our expert then: "We will know that the recession is over when we start to see manufacturing activity picking up, and consumers starting to spend again on large-dollar items such as cars and appliances and houses," Chmura said.

Chmura predicted the recession would come to an end during the fourth quarter of this year.

Chmura now: The economist has revised her estimate and now believes the recession will come to an end during the third quarter of this year.

Factory orders are increasing, consumer spending has picked up and confidence is rising. Much of the recovery is due in part to the stimulus of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

"It looks like the Cash for Clunkers program helped bring the recession to a quicker end," Chmura said.

CHRISTINE CHMURA TIMES-DISPATCH COLUMNIST
Published: September 7, 2009

What does economics tell us about the proposed universal health-care plan?

Volumes of books and perspectives literally are published on health-care economics. Honestly, it's too complex to thoroughly analyze in this column.

So, let's just discuss one small aspect that students learn in Econ 101: economics is the study of the scarcity of resources and price is the mechanism that brings those resources to the market.

Based on a 2008 census report, 15.3 percent of people in the United States were without health insurance. That's down from 15.8 percent in 2007, representing 45.7 million people.

What happens when those uninsured are covered?

The demand for health care will increase significantly, especially for primary care physicians and specialist doctors. Classic economics tells us that price will increase until supply catches up.

If the government, through some sort of tax increase, can make money available to cover that health care, then supply will surely catch up quickly.

I ask you to refrain from jumping to that conclusion quickly.

From a practical perspective, it may be fairly easy to produce more drugs and medical supplies, but what about doctors, nurses, and other health-care practitioners?

A 2004 study by the Health Resources and Services Administration showed that the nation had a shortage of about 168,000 full-time equivalent registered nurses in 2003.

Although that shortage has eased during the recession, the dearth will return when the economy recovers.

The health administration forecasts a 1 million full-time equivalent shortage for registered nurses through 2020. That means only 64 percent of the projected demand can be met by 2020 and this estimate does not factor in universal coverage.

The health administration also looked at the future supply of physicians and demand for their services.

The report said that the supply and demand for primary care physicians will be about equal to the national demand, but shortages are likely to happen in rural areas.

Even larger shortages would take place in individual specialties such as general surgery, cardiology, and psychiatry, to name a few.

The supply of health-care professionals cannot catch up to demand because of the required intensive training and rigorous licenses, which takes time.

If 46 million more people are added to the demand side of the health-care equation without optimistic productivity gains in providing health care, we likely will see a tradeoff between quantity and quality, particularly as services are rationed.

Increased caseloads will no doubt reduce quality. Under universal care, rationing doesn't mean that some people don't get care. It means that all people wait longer for care.

Health-care reform is necessary.

How we solve the problem will determine whether some portion of the 85 percent who currently have insurance can successfully bypass the proposed new system to create their own higher-cost, higher quality system.

Christine Chmura, president and chief economist with Chmura Economics & Analytics in Richmond, said gross domestic product, the basic measure of a nation's economic performance, should turn positive during the current quarter. GDP is the sum of all goods and services made within a year.

"The third quarter will most likely be the beginning of the next expansion," she said.

The Cash-for-Clunkers program, for instance, is giving the economy a jump-start, with automakers adding jobs to make up for diminished inventory. "And it's rippling to steel companies and other companies that supply auto manufacturers."

As yet unknown is whether that federal stimulus program accelerated people's plans to buy new cars, which could mean a slump in future sales.

"The question is whether the growth rate we'll see in the third quarter will be sustainable," Chmura said.

Losing a job is, to say the least, difficult. Receiving severance or unemployment insurance helps pay the bills, but the mental anguish and uncertainty about finding a new job can be hard to overcome. Typically, the unemployment rate increases during a recession, though unemployment remains an issue even during times of economic expansion.

Younger workers along with the least-educated almost always hold the highest rankings in the U.S. unemployment rate.

Over the past decade, the unemployment rate for individuals 16 to 19 averaged 16.2 percent, compared with 5.2 percent for the entire work force. In June, unemployment rates were 24 percent for the teenagers and 9.5 percent for the work force as a whole.

The unemployment rate for workers 25 or older with less education than a high school diploma jumped to 15.5 percent in June, compared with 8.9 percent a year ago. Unemployment for high school graduates almost doubled as well over the past year, moving to 8 percent from 4.4 percent. (College graduates, however, were still looking at a somewhat low unemployment rate of 4.7 percent in June, compared with 2.4 percent a year ago.)

During these difficult times, many young individuals likely will take jobs that require less skill than they have based on their education. Those who have the financial wherewithal to work without pay may find it beneficial to gain experience while still searching for a job.

Based on unemployment statistics, if everyone obtains at least a college education, there will be less unemployment. Theoretically that seems correct, but practically it can't happen. Aptitude and interest play a role. An office setting is not for everyone. Some people prefer occupations that do not require a college education, such as working on cars, renovating furniture or homes, or cooking.

Equally important is the fact that many businesses need good workers who are not college-degreed. Based on the current mix of industries in Virginia, for example, about half the jobs in Virginia require only shortor moderate-term on-the-job training that may include an additional certification along with a high school degree. Truck drivers, sales representatives, welders and child-care workers are among the occupations in demand -- some of these jobs pay an average $60,000 a year.

By contrast, only about 23 percent of the jobs in Virginia require a bachelor's degree or greater. And some of them, such as athletic trainers and social-services specialists, earn a wage of less than $50,000 a year.

The best solution for Virginia is to have a strong economic-development plan that is underpinned with a highly skilled, highly qualified work force and an infrastructure that is committed to lifelong learning.

Looking to the next 10 years in Virginia, the fastest-growing jobs will be those requiring an associate degree -- 2.5 percent a year, compared with a 1.9 percent growth rate, for example, for jobs needing a master's degree.

How can a student or job-seeker learn about growth occupations in Virginia? If you're looking for employment now, go to http://www.richmondjobnet.com and sign up for the Career Concourse, where you can find job openings in the Richmond metro area that match your skills.

If you are considering a degree that will lead to employment, go to http://www.vawizard.org and click on the careers tab. Once you've identified a career, you can use the site to apply for scholarships and determine the costs of attending a community college versus a four-year institution, as well as what jobs are critical in your hometown.

Hang in there. This recession will end and job opportunities will expand once again.

Consider your skills and the in-demand occupations that need those skills in your community. Be flexible in the short run, knowing that we are all moving along a path of learning over time.

The City of Roanoke is making a powerful economic development tool available to local businesses and job seekers.

Training for the system is also provided. The best part for users is, it's free.

The city's Office of Economic Development is offering the use of Jobs EQ. The online database is able to match skilled workers with the needs of local employers. Information provided on the site can prepare displaced workers for growing industries.

The data is updated quarterly by Chmura Economics & Analytics, the developers of the program.

It evaluates shifts in the job market and identifies skill gaps in the market. Registration for the site is only a few keystrokes away.

For job seekers it's an excellent opportunity to post your resume for local businesses find. For employers looking for talent, Jobs EQ establishes a network of professionals seeking work in the region.

The program is up and running right now. It's connected to the City of Roanoke's website.

The Jobs EQ database is pretty robust. Roanoke's Office of Economic Development is offering training for the system tomorrow morning at 8:30 at 117 Church Avenue.

Subsequent demo sessions will be held the fourth Tuesday of every month.

The construction and ongoing existence of I-73 will inject hundreds of millions of dollars into the I-73 Corridor and provide jobs for workers in construction, retail, service, and warehouse industries. The annual economic impact is estimated to be $220.3 million that sustains 2,020 jobs after construction is complete.

Download the study.

From a traditional economic development perspective, the City has worked with firms like Chmura Economics and Analytics who have created its Jobs EQ technology by compiling large amounts of data from government database using feeds and packaging the data for easy analysis and dissemination to existing businesses.

Read the full article.

“Economic development is a dynamic process requiring innovative strategies and technologies such as JobsEQ,” says Assistant City Manager Brian Townsend. “This product will help businesses, organizations, and individuals make informed decisions which will positively affect Roanoke’s economic future.”

Some of the other tools the site provides to economic development staff include wage data, employment growth, labor inventory, entrepreneurial activities, labor supply and demand, forecast, emerging workforce estimates, cost of living adjustments, clusters, peer comparisons, worker skill set mapping, ad-hoc reports, shift share, and training needs.

“We are pleased the City of Roanoke’s Office of Economic Development has committed to this innovative technology tool to help its community,” says Dr. Christine Chmura of Chmura Economics & Analytics. “Roanoke understands that technology can play a vital role in economic development activities and they want to be the catalyst by sharing the data with their constituents.”

Other organizations using the tool in Virginia include the Greater Richmond Partnership, Hampton Roads Economic Development Alliance, Gateway Regional Alliance, and Thomas Jefferson Partnership for Economic Development. The software is also used in five other states outside of Virginia.

The Office of Economic Development will be holding its fi rst demo/information session on Tuesday, July 28, at 8:30 a.m. at 117 Church Ave. Subsequent demo sessions will be held the fourth Tuesday of every month at the same time and location.

For more information, please contact Stuart Mease, Special Projects Coordinator for the City of Roanoke, at stuart.mease@roanokeva.gov or 540-853-2384.

In Ohio’s economy overall, employment plummeted 4.9% in Ohio over the year ending April 2009 with over 100,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. Also in April, a new low was posted in single-family building permits and a new high in initial unemployment claims. Employment in high-tech industry, however, continued to expand through the end of 2008. From the fourth quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2008, total wages in the state were flat, but wages in the high-tech industry grew 2.7%.

Christine Chmura is one of our key sources on all things dealing with the economy, according to business writer Emily Dooley, who reports on the Virginia economy.

"She has a tremendous amount of knowledge about not only what is happening locally but nationally and globally," Dooley said. "Employment numbers, gross domestic product, and consumer confidence . . . she talks about those topics and more. She also has a deep understanding of the local labor market conditions and is invaluable when it comes to providing the context behind the numbers."

Before founding what is now called Chmura Economics & Analytics in 1999, Chmura was the chief economist at Crestar Financial Corp. and was an associate economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. She has written columns on economic issues for the Metro Business section each month since 2000; beginning in August, look for her column on the first Monday of the month in Metro Business.

The Federal Reserve's Open Markets Committee did pretty much as expected yesterday, leaving its key interest rate target unchanged between zero and 0.25 percent and sticking to plans to purchase government bonds and asset-backed securities.

Analysts and economists liked what they saw when they parsed the Fed's statement for signs of where it thinks the economy is going. And that is up, if slowly, said Christine Chmura, president of the Richmond-based economic consulting firm Chmura Economics and Analytics.

She said the committee's statement that it is looking for gradual recovery, with prices remaining stable, echoes what many economists are saying these days.

Still, "It's good that we hear that," she said, especially from the powerful group that sets the nation's interest-rate policy.

"Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustained economic growth in a context of price stability," the Fed said in the statement issued yesterday afternoon after the committee's two-day meeting.

Jamie Cox, managing partner with Harris Financial Group, said the statement marked an important turn.

"We have been dealing with the threat of deflation," he said, referring to a spiral of falling prices and layoffs that feeds upon each other. "Today, the deflation scare is over."

Chmura said the statement likely means short-term interest rates will remain down, keeping consumer's borrowing costs low. And the committee's view that there's enough slack in the economy to keep inflation down was likely to keep a lid on mortgage rates by calming bond markets, she said.

This is a question that economists the world over have been pondering ever since unemployment, foreclosures and bankruptcies reached all time highs in 2008 and 2009. With many people still out of work and businesses, even major ones, closing left and right, it’s hard for some to see the light at the end of the tunnel. 

Yet most don’t see a particularly dark future ahead for the global economy. In a poll by CNN of 21 delegates at the World Economic Forum, most believed the economy would recover next year, and some even believed things would settle down by the end of this year. CNBC correspondent Carmen Wong Ulrich believes that we’re more than halfway there. And the average person? While the vast majority see the economic crisis lasting well into this year and beyond, some are optimistic in stating they believe we’ve already hit bottom and are slowly moving towards improvement. 

Yet according to statistics, this is one of the longest economic recessions since the Great Depression, lasting almost 18 months with no definitive end in sight. Can the end really come as soon as this year? 

The vast majority of indicators seem to point to no, but things do appear to be improving, though incredibly slowly. Jobless claims are still in the 600,000 range and that doesn’t even begin to take into account those who are underemployed and not making a living wage at the jobs they do have. For a major change to occur, jobs not only need to stop being cut from businesses but new ones need to be created in significant numbers as well as people don’t spend when they don’t have jobs and consumer confidence is a big part of economic recovery. Unemployment has dropped in the past few months, but not by a significant amount. Still, it may be a start and somewhere to work from. 

Of course, for a real turnaround to be made, big changes need to happen in the housing and stock markets as well, where prices have been dismal in the past few months, with the stock market reaching epic lows in March. So far, neither of these is making any sustained or dramatic improvements, indicating that economic recovery may be further away than anticipated and more patience will be required to pull through these tough times. 

The Southside region of Virginia has seen increased unemployment due to the recession and the Danville metropolitan area is a good example of this. The unemployment rate in Danville has been in double digits since October 2008. As of March 2009, the unemployment rate was 12.1%, below the peak of 12.9% reached in January. The national unemployment rate in March 2009 was 8.5%, its peak in the current recession to that point. Among Virginia’s metro areas, Danville had the highest unemployment rate in March followed by Blacksburg (9.1%) and Bristol (8.8%).

EMILY C. DOOLEY TIMES-DISPATCH STAFF WRITER

Published: June 9, 2009

The Richmond region has lost more jobs than any other metro area in the state, an economist said yesterday.

From when employment -- the number of jobs -- peaked in the Richmond area in August 2007 through March 2009, the region lost 26,000 jobs. The job losses included thousands resulting from the bankruptcies of Circuit City Stores Inc., LandAmerica Financial Group Inc., and Qimonda AG.

The Hampton Roads area's employment hit its highest mark in July 2007. Northern Virginia's peak came a year later. Both regions have lost 20,000 jobs since their employment peaked.

Despite the time differences, the numbers can be compared because they represent the duration and depth of the recession in a given area, said Christine Chmura, president and chief economist at the Richmond firm Chmura Economics & Analytics.

But there also is a bright side: The layoffs should not be so severe in the months to come.

"We're still declining . . . but the worst of it is behind us," Chmura said while presenting the Virginia Economic Forecast funded by the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy for the past 10 years.

Virginia also is doing better than the nation. From March 2008 to March 2009, Virginia employment fell by 2.4 percent. During that same period, employment fell by 3.5 percent nationwide, the report said.

Chmura said she expects the recession to end during the fourth quarter of this year or early in 2010.

The reason: The stock market is performing well; inventories of goods are declining, indicating that demand will renew a need for supply; federal stimulus money will begin or already has filtered into the public; and consumer confidence is rising.

"The fastest rate of decline is behind us," Chmura said.

Read the rest of the article here.

Dr. Christine Chmura, one of the state's top private economists, said today that Virginia is doing better economically than the country overall during this current recession.  In the 10th annual Virginia Economic Forecast, published by the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy and released Monday morning at the Virginia Chamber of Commerce office in Richmond, Dr. Chmura projects the recession continuing through this year before a slow recovery begin the second half of 2010.

Employment has declined 2.6% since its peak in December 2008.  This compares favorably to the national employment decline of 3.7%.  Virginia home prices fell 1.2% in 2008 over 2007 while dramatically falling 4.6% in the 4th quarter of 2008 - the largest quarterly decline since tracking of home prices began in 1976.

Chmura forecasts a 1.6% decline in employment in Virginia for 2009 and expects employment increases to begin in the second half of 2010.  Housing permits will decline 18.8% in 2009, after falling 33.9% in 2008.  Housing permits will grow by 5.5% in 2010.

Each year this Jefferson Institute's Annual Economic Forecast highlights a current public policy issue and this year it focused on Climate Change. Chmura's report states that there continues to be debate within the scientific community on the extent and the causes of climate change.  This year's Economic Forecast discusses the economic impact of proposed actions to confront climate change - those that make economic sense and those that do not.  Dr. Chmura served on the Governor's Climate Change Commission.

The Thomas Jefferson Institute is Virginia's premier non-partisan public policy foundation which refers to itself as a "solutions tank" since it seeks alternatives to current government programs and policies.

This forecast was also covered by the Richmond Times-Dispatch on June 8th:

Despite recent announcements of hundreds of layoffs at DuPont Co. and Reynolds Packaging Group, the worst of the job cuts appear to be over in Virginia, an economist said today.

"We're still declining . . . but the worst of it is behind us," said Christine Chmura, president and chief economist at the Richmond firm Chmura Economics & Analytics.

Chmura also said she expects the recession to end in Virginia during the fourth quarter of this year or early in 2010.

Her comments were part of an annual Virginia Economic Forecast that the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy has presented for the past decade.

Christine Chmura
June 2, 2009

The national recession continues to take its toll on the Richmond metropolitan area.

About 28,000 people in the region have lost their jobs since the area hit peak employment in August 2007.

With the area’s concentration of finance and insurance companies, it’s not surprising that the job loss in the Richmond area is larger than any of the other metro areas in the state.

Northern Virginia shed 18,000 jobs from its peak, Hampton Roads is down by 15,000, and the entire state is off by 94,000 from peak employment.

The current recession is turning out to be worse than the previous two in most regions across the state.

Northern Virginia is an exception, where employment declined only 1.6 percent through March 2009 from its peak employment in July 2008.

During the 1990 recession, which was partially driven by the overbuilding of office space and the downsizing of defense, Northern Virginia lost 4.4 percent of its jobs.

The Richmond area has already chalked up a greater percentage of losses compared with the last two recessions by looking at five economic indicators.

Employment in Richmond is down 4 percent — or 28,000 people — from its peak. The percent decline is the same as in the nation but much higher than the 2.6 percent drop in the state.

Employment in the finance, insurance and real estate industries alone declined 10 percent in the area during the past year.

Auto registrations, a proxy for auto sales, dropped by almost half since its peak early in 2005.

The mild 2001 recession saw an 18.9 percent contraction in auto registrations in the region. Without exception, auto sales in all 11 metro areas across the state have contracted more in the current recession than the last two.

The drop in retail sales, which translates into sales-tax revenue declines, provides some insight into why Gov. Timothy M. Kaine is considering more budget cuts.

With the recession expected to last six to nine more months, the current 7.1 percent drop in retail sales in Virginia from its peak in October 2007 is likely to surpass the 7.1 percent drop that occurred in the 1990 recession.

With Richmond employment decreasing more than in the state, it’s not surprising that sales have dropped further in the current recession than in either of the previous two.

Neither is it unexpected that residential building permits dropped more in the current recession than the previous two in every metro area in the state, because the recession started in the housing sector.

Richmond is no exception, with permits dropping 75 percent so far since the peak in early 2006.

The rising trend in initial unemployment claims provides a leading indicator of the labor market and affirms that the recession will continue as most economists expect. Claims so far in this recession are up 156.1 percent in the Richmond region.

Although every recession has unique drivers, they all result in layoffs and declines in sales.

As this recession begins to wind down over the next few months, the pace of the losses should decline. And barring unforeseen events, this column will be reporting about the recovery early in 2010.

Christine Chmura Christine Chmura is president and chief economist at Chmura Economics & Analytics. She can be reached at (804) 649-3640 or via the Chmura Economics website.

Nine of Virginia's 10 metropolitan areas -- including Richmond -- experienced smaller unemployment lines in April from March, according to a report released yesterday by the Virginia Employment Commission.

Despite that drop, the rate is expected to increase this year statewide and nationally -- but not at the fast pace that it has in the past several months.

The unemployment rate in the Richmond area was 7.6 percent in April. That's down from 7.8 percent in March but still more than twice the 3.3 percent rate a year ago in April.

Virginia's unemployment rate was 6.6 percent in April, down from 6.9 percent in March but up from 3.2 percent in April 2008, according to the report. The U.S rate was 8.6 percent in April, down from 9 percent in March but up from 4.8 percent a year ago.

The numbers were not adjusted for seasonal fluctuations. The seasonally adjusted April rate in Virginia remained at the March level of 6.8 percent.

William E. Mezger, the employment commission's chief economist, said seasonal factors are the reason for the monthly fall in the unadjusted unemployment rate, attributing the improvement to hires in leisure and hospitality during the Easter holiday.

"The rate usually does fall in April," he said.

"We had a little bit of hiring activity in professional and business services in April, mostly in Northern Virginia," Mezger said. Most of the 1,800 added jobs in that sector were for accountants and computer programmers.

The April rate did not reflect any increases in construction, which is typical for this time of year. "We didn't get any pickup in construction," Mezger said. "That actually went down, and that is most unusual at this time of year."

He said the lower monthly rate is not a sign that unemployment could be subsiding. Rather, he said he expects jobless claims to rise in May and June as college and high school students look for work in a tight labor market.

Also, with General Motors and Chrysler suspending manufacturing operations, more layoffs are expected from automobile suppliers, Mezger said.

In the Richmond area, some Circuit City Stores Inc. and Qimonda employees were still on the payroll in March.

"They were gone by April," Mezger said.

Operations were shut down at both bankrupt companies. Circuit City, a consumer electronics retailer, was liquidated, closing its last stores in March.

Those job losses here were offset by an uptick in tourism activity, Mezger said.

Danville, with the highest unemployment rate in the state, was the only metro area with an increase in jobless claims, rising to 12.4 percent in April from 12.1 percent in March.

Mezger said the rise there was because of curtailed manufacturing, with unpaid work days taken during the Easter holiday.

"When we are in a recession, unemployment will continue to go up," said Christine Chmura of Chmura Economics & Analytics in Richmond. "Even after a recession ends, the unemployment rate will rise for a couple of months until firms see an increase in demand that is sustained."

She said she expects the recession to end in the first quarter of next year, although some economists are predicting the economy will grow again in the fourth quarter of this year.

Although the unemployment rate will move upward in Virginia and the U.S. this year, it will not move as fast as it has been, Chmura said. "But it will continue to inch higher."

BY SUSAN ELZEY
SPECIAL TO THE REGISTER & BEE
Published: May 23, 2009

Although Clifton Glasscock, the general manager of Buffalo Wild Wings in Danville, knew that VIR benefitted his business, he said Friday he was a little surprised to learn just how much money VIR brings into the community.

An economic impact study by Chmura Economics & Analytics released Thursday reported that the financial impact of VIR on the surrounding region brought in $77.5 million annually, with $44.9 million coming from visitor spending, of which Danville gets 51 percent and Pittsylvania County gets 27 percent.

Halifax County, where VIR is located, gets the remaining 22 percent.

“We get a phenomenal amount of people in during the VIR events,” Glasscock said. “We have several race teams who come, and we get to overstaff a bit. You definitely mark your calendar for their events.”

He said that March is always the restaurant’s biggest month due to college basketball’s March Madness, but VIR’s Big Kahuna Race in mid-August has made August the second best month.

“Last year we went out, did advertising and had a wing-eating contest as well as sponsoring the Fan Party Night,” he said.

Ham’s General Manager Shaun Robertson also keeps track of the VIR calendar, knowing he will have to add extra staff.

“Race teams come in throughout the weekend to relax in our nice atmosphere after a hard day,” he said. “We greatly appreciate all they do and hope they continue to keep growing.”

Ham’s has been in Danville for 14 years now, and Robertson said he has seen the influence from VIR since it opened 10 years ago.

In fact, the proximity of VIR was one of the considerations when Buffalo Wild Wings selected Danville as a location three years ago.

“In our business, being sports-related, we do look at the sports markets,” Glasscock said. “We considered the Martinsville Speedway, VIR, Averett University and all the high schools in the area.”

Hotels, as well as restaurants, are recipients of the spending VIR visitors bring to the community.

Vickie Barber, general manager of Courtyard by Marriott in Danville, said that visitors to VIR bring in 3 percent of the hotel’s annual revenue.

She also puts VIR events on the calendar and knows she will need extra staff at those times.

“VIR is instrumental in bringing in business during the race weekends,” she said. “VIR is a good group, and we have always enjoyed a good working relationship with everyone there and the teams who come in.”

Niles Daly, president of Daly Seven Inc., which owns the Courtyard, said Friday that VIR helps round out their business on the weekend.

Laurie Moran, president of the Danville Pittsylvania County Chamber of Commerce, called VIR a “tremendous asset” to the region on Friday.

“It provides a huge economic benefit, as the recent study indicated,” she said. “The Chamber has fielded numerous inquiries in recent years from prospective businesses and persons wishing to relocate because they had come to VIR and fallen in love with the community. That’s a huge benefit to our region when we have businesses and people moving here as a result of the great experience they had at VIR.”

Virginia's jobless rate remained steady from March to April, but economists say it's too early to celebrate the end of the recession.

While the nation's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose 0.4 percentage points to 8.9 percent in April, Virginia's stayed at 6.8 percent, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"Even though the unemployment rate was unchanged in Virginia, the underlying numbers show that the economy is still contracting," said Christine Chmura of Chmura Economics & Analytics in Richmond. "We still have 4,000 more people unemployed."

Layoffs continued in Virginia in April, but the labor force also grew to 4.17 million, up 189,000, according to BLS data.

The subtractions and additions equaled out.

"Basically you got some layoffs in April . . . but then had some people go to work," said William F. Mezger, chief economist for the Virginia Employment Commission.

"I don't think the recession is over by any means," he added.

Nationwide, 44 states, including Virginia, and the District of Columbia lost jobs in April. California was hit worst with 63,700 jobs lost.

As for the unemployment rate, 21 states saw decreases between March and April; 18 states saw increases. In 11 states, the rate did not change.

Michigan, with an unemployment rate of 12.9 percent, had the highest jobless rate in the nation. At 4 percent, North Dakota had the lowest rate, according to the BLS data.

Virginia has the 15th-lowest jobless rate, Mezger said.

"This is actually good news," said Jay Schwartz, president of the Henrico County-based staffing and searching firm Richmond Group USA.

Schwartz said it could mean the recession has ended or the stimulus money is taking effect. "You can't spend that much money and not have an impact," he said.

Mezger expects the unemployment rate to increase in May and June when high school and college students begin looking for work, along with the 284,000 other unemployed people in the state.

"At this point, it doesn't look like it's going to be a particularly good year for summer graduates and seasonal employment," he said.

Economists expect the recession to end either in the fourth quarter of this year or in the first three months of 2010. Even then, it will take awhile for unemployment rates to go down.

Businesses, until they are sure of a recovery, may opt for temporary workers. Schwartz said that's when calls for contract employees may increase.

"Employers don't want to hire people until they're convinced they'll have enough demand to keep that person on the payroll," Chmura said. "It's easier to pick up those people and let them go."

BLUEFIELD, Va. — Despite the national economic downturn, Tazewell County officials say they are still on target to advertise the first phase of the planned Bluestone Regional Business and Technology Park for construction this summer.

“We are hoping to bid it out late spring or early summer,” County Attorney Eric Young said. “Phase one would be the intersection with (Route) 460, the entrance to the park and water, sewer and roads to the business parcels. I believe broadband is already on the 460 corridor.”

Young said the national recession hasn’t slowed the project.

“Actually, I think the IDA (Industrial Development Authority) is optimistic that we will get better bids now than we would have a year ago,” Young said. “There is still interest in the park. We actually have one industry the IDA is looking at right now that is interested in taking baby steps.”

The Bluestone, which is being developed near Bluefield, Va., is a 680-acre mixed-use development that will include sites for new businesses and industry, a workforce training center, offices, a hotel and conference center, retail stores, residential units, walking trails and even a possible nine-hole golf course.

Young said the IDA has advertised and received proposals for interim financing for the construction of the park.

The county is still working to clear a number of environmental hurdles that have delayed the start of construction on the project by almost more than a year. Young said it his understanding that most of the environmental issues have been or are being resolved.

Target industries for the mixed use development include technology-based, advanced manufacturing and energy businesses.

A 2006 study by Chmura Economics & Analytics found the Bluestone project could generate $45 million in annual sales and output for the county and employ almost 900 people in both the public and private sectors.

If you've ever gaped at a huge winter heating bill, griped at the price of what you remember as a 10-cent candy bar or groaned when filling the car's gas tank tops $50, falling prices sounds like a good thing.

But they may not be.

Here's a quick briefing from economist Christine Chmura, president of Chmura Economics and Analytics in Richmond, on inflation's mirror image: deflation.

What is deflation?

You get deflation when you have persistently falling prices, over several quarters.

Why is it a bad thing?

People start holding off making purchases, waiting for prices to fall more. Sales slow down and it could make a recession last longer.

Any examples?

We may be seeing deflation in housing in places like California and Florida. Prices have been falling and people aren't buying because they think they'll fall some more.

Are we facing a generalized deflation now?

I don't think so. I think price reductions are doing what businesses want them to, encouraging consumers to start buying, judging by the latest retail sales statistics.

Have we ever seen general deflation in the U.S.?

Yes, that was what happened in the Great Depression.