This year’s list contains 20 growth names to watch in 2022. That is ALL this list is, a personal watch list that can and will change over the course of the year, so please do not take it as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security.

I currently own six of the names on this year’s list with several new names that I have never owned and a few names that I have owned in the past that I believe will continue to perform.

Please understand that I have several portfolios that I manage for my family:

• Growth Portfolio (active)
• IRA Portfolio (passive)
• Index Funds (passive)
• Crypto Portfolio (active & passive)

I must reiterate that my annual blog post, Stocks to Watch, targets equities that I may trade within my active investing account, a growth stock account that’s more active than my conservative accounts (IRA, 401ks, index funds and our direct company owned stock). This growth account represents roughly a quarter of my investable net worth, per the accounts listed above. I will not disclose the number of shares or the size of the accounts as this is personal information. What I will disclose, here and on twitter, is what I own, what I buy and what I sell – and when I do it. I do believe in being transparent with the equities that I hold as well as the equities I don’t when discussing them on the blog or social media. I have been on Twitter since 2009 and I have not sold any services, newsletters or make any of my income from this blog or twitter.

Please look at my blog and my twitter account as my own personal online diary. This diary contains success stories, mistakes, lessons learned and lessons to be learned. I am not a professional investor or money manager and I am far from perfect when making a watch list and investing my own money.

I make mistakes, but based on my 23 years of investing experience, my consistency in identifying market trends and individual market leaders has improved considerably over the years. I don’t have all the answers and everyone must understand that winning and losing are part of the investing game. Every investor loses money and has ideas that don’t pan out, that’s the price for playing the game. Based on my experience, I know the investors that last and make consistent profits are the ones that learn how to manage their money properly (position sizing), control emotions and remain patient, sticking to their rules.

Please do not follow anything I do blindly – every trader and investor must do their own due diligence, have their own plan and know their own timeframes for their own personal portfolios.

I don’t trade for a living nor do I aspire to trade for a living. I invest to increase my overall net worth and to “play the game”. I enjoy trying to beat the market averages by making my own decisions in individual stocks. Some years this works and in others, it doesn’t. But this is also why I diversify my net worth across active and passive investment portfolios.

In 2020, my growth portfolio returns crushed my IRA and index funds but in 2021, my index funds outperformed my IRA and growth portfolio. My crypto portfolio outperformed them both, in both years. It’s anyone’s guess what will outperform in any given year, so this is why I diversify my dollars.

Similar to prior years, I have generated a watch list that identifies trends and stocks that I believe will grow for years to come. I do NOT want to be in-and-out of positions quickly. I prefer to hold my positions over time but 2021 re-taught me the lesson to cut losers a little quicker and take some profits when the technicals get well above historical norms (i.e.: a stock that trades 100%+ above its 200d ma). We want to learn to be patient during drawdowns and negative headlines, knowing the story of the underlying stock has not changed but at the same time, be cognizant of the risks, should action need to be taken. This is a lot easier said than done, especially in today’s world of instant satisfaction and gratification.

I try to avoid posting the latest fad list of growth stocks that may pump up quickly in the matter of weeks or months only to worry that they will they collapse just as quickly on the back side.

I screen, watch and then buy stocks based on a few simple parameters:

• Great product, service and brand
• Rising sales QoQ and YoY
• Rising EPS QoQ and YoY or EPS looking to turn positive (from negative territory)
• Increasing institutional sponsorship
• Technically: grabbing near support, at a breakout or within a base (near the 50d or 200d moving average)

That’s really it – I keep it simple. My foundation for growth stocks is based on the CANSLIM philosophy, created by William O’Neil.

I must repeat what I say every year and will continue to repeat every year until it no longer makes sense:

The annual “Stocks to Watch” list often includes newer and up-coming growth stocks that I own or candidates I am looking to own. Stocks such as AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, NFLX, FB, V, MA, etc. should be owned in almost every portfolio already, whether in your active trading account or a more passive retirement account, such as an IRA. This is where I own these stocks. I believe these stocks will all likely double or triple over time, once again. Own an index fund as well and add dollars to it annually, during up and down years – just do it and check back in 30 years.

Honestly, 95% of all folks should just own index funds and call it a day and forget about trading or investing in individual equities.

The bottom of this blog posts lists the equities that I currently own in our growth portfolio, our IRA and our crypto account.

“Know what you own, and know why you own it” – Peter Lynch

Beyond today’s list, I still believe in many of the industry trends and names that I highlighted in 2020 and 2021:

Trends that will continue for years to come, with notable names that I still like and/or own:

• E-commerce: SHOP, SE, PINS, ETSY
• Payments: SQ, PYPL
• Security: CRWD, OKTA, ZS
• Edge & Cloud: NET, APPS, TWLO
• Database: MDB, DDOG, PLTR
• Health: TDOC
• Streaming: SPOT
• Digital Adv: ROKU, TTD
• Tech Utilities: ZM, DOCU, CRM, U, FVRR
• Services: UBER, ABNB

Enjoy my 20 Stocks to Watch for 2022, in alphabetical order:
ABNB, AFRM, APPS, ASAN, COIN, CURI, DDOG, DOCN, GENI, GLBE, INMD, MQ, NET, OPRX, RBLX, SI, SOFI, U, UPST, ZI

I currently own six stocks on this year’s Stocks to Watch 2022 watch list:
APPS, COIN, DDOG, GENI, GLBE, MQ

• ABNB – $166.49: Airbnb, Inc. operates a platform for stays and experiences to guests worldwide. The company’s marketplace model connects hosts and guests online or through mobile devices to book spaces and experiences.

  Sales have been inconsistent the past two years due to the pandemic and lockdowns. Earnings were negative for seven straight quarters but then rose to $1.22 in the Sept 2021 quarter, a 239% jump from the same quarter the prior year. Sales jumped 299% and 67% the past two quarters with a low of $334MM in Jun-20 vs $2,237MM in Sept-21 as we start to come out of the pandemic.

  Institutional sponsorship is up 61% from 662 funds to 1,070 funds the past four quarters.

  P/S is less than 20 with a market cap of $105B.

  Technically, the stock is trading above the 200d ma but below the 50d ma. It is currently in a seven week base, about 22% down from the recent high set in early November. An ideal add would be now, near the 200d ma. I am interested in the stock as I use the service and like the brand.

  I do not own shares as of this post.



• AFRM – $100.56: Affirm Holdings, Inc. operates a platform for digital and mobile-first commerce in the United States and Canada. The company’s platform includes point-of-sale payment solution for consumers, merchant commerce solutions, and a consumer-focused app. Its payments network and partnership with an originating bank, enables consumers to pay for a purchase over time with terms ranging from one to forty-eight months.

  Sales have jumped an average of 80% QoQ from $138MM to $269MM over the past eight quarters but earnings remain negative, coming in at -$1.13 in Sept-21.

  Institutional sponsorship was up 33% from 253 funds to 337 funds last quarter.

  P/S is 29 with a market cap of $28B.

  Technically, the stock is 42% off of highs but is building an eight week cup shaped base that has caught support above the 200d ma. An entry here would be early but adds near the 200d ma usually have decent r/r. I will be watching to see if it can hold this support area and continue to build the right side of the base.

  I do not own shares as of this post.



• APPS – $60.99: Digital Turbine, Inc. provides media and mobile communication products and solutions for mobile operators, application advertisers, publishers, device original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and other third parties. Its application media software platform that enables mobile operators and OEMs to control, manage, and monetize devices. The company also provides programmatic advertising and targeted media delivery services.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 145% the past eight quarters from $36MM to $310MM for a total gain of 761%. The past four quarters have averaged 210% QoQ, logging +146%, +142%, +260% and +338%.

  As for earnings, they have averaged a QoQ gain of 191% the past eight quarters, going from $0.05 to $0.44. Sales are clearly exploding while earnings continue to grow.

  Institutional sponsorship is up 127% from 226 funds to 513 over the last eight quarters.

  P/S is 8 with a market cap of $5.8B.

  Technically, the stock has been trading mostly sideways over the past year with a couple of peaks and valleys. It’s currently 40% off of highs and trading below the 50d and 200d moving averages. I’d like to see it recover these moving averages, on above average volume so it can setup for a new move back to highs. I can see this stock doubling over time if sales and earnings continue to grow at rapid clips.

  I currently own shares of APPS as of this post.



• ASAN – $74.55: Asana, Inc. operates a work management platform for individuals, team leads, and executives in the United States and internationally. It provides a work management platform as software as service that enables individuals and teams to get work done faster while enhancing employee engagement by allowing everyone to see how their work connects to the mission of an organization.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 65% the past eight quarters from $43MM to $100MM for a total gain of 131%. Earnings are still negative which is always a concern so I will continue to keep an eye on this.

  Institutional sponsorship is up 594% from 55 funds to 382 over the last five quarters.

  P/S is 41 with a market cap of $13.9B.

  The founder and president, Dustin Moskovitz who is also a former Facebook founder, bought a substantial number of shares in the open market in 2021 as the stock ran from the $20s to a high of $145. I see those purchases as bullish, long term, but the price has since cooled off, down nearly 50% over the past two months.

  Technically, it has caught support near the 200d ma but I believe it needs time to form a longer base. I would not be surprised to see this stock fall further, before putting in a bottom (as the Price to Sales (P/S) is still above 40).

  I do not own shares as of this post.



• COIN – $252.37: Coinbase Global, Inc. provides financial infrastructure and technology for the crypto-economy. It offers the primary financial account in the crypto-economy for retail users; a marketplace with a pool of liquidity for transacting in crypto assets for institutions; and technology and services that enable ecosystem partners to build crypto-based applications and securely accept crypto assets as payment.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 664% the past four quarters while going from $98.3MM to $1,311.9MM the past eight quarters for a total gain of 1,235%.

  As for earnings, they have averaged a QoQ gain of 912%, from $0.16 to $1.62, since turning positive in Mar-20. Earnings were a whopping $6.42 in the Jun-21 quarter which was a near 4,000% gain from the same quarter the prior year.

  Institutional sponsorship currently stands at 418 funds for the young IPO. It will be interesting to see if additional funds add shares in the coming quarters, setting up an accumulation trend.

  P/S is 9 with a market cap of $54B.

  Technically, the stock is trading below its 50d moving average but it is still too young for the 200d moving average to show up on charts. I don’t see a constructive base but there appears to be support around $220, dating back to May, June, July and October. I like the brand and have been investing in the crypto industry since 2019 (using Coinbase as one of my accounts).

  I currently own shares of COIN as of this post.



• CURI – $5.93: CuriosityStream Inc. operates as a factual streaming service and media company. The company provides premium video programming services in various categories of factual entertainment, including science, history, society, nature, lifestyle, and technology through direct subscription video on-demand (SVoD) platforms accessible by internet connected devices, or indirectly via distribution partners who deliver CuriosityStream content via the distributor’s platform or system; and through bundled content licenses for SVoD and linear offerings, partner bulk sales, brand partnerships, and content sales. As of March 31, 2021, it had approximately 16 million total paying subscribers.

  All of the stocks on this list carry risk but this selection may carry the most risk. I placed it on watch due to a possible turnaround in share price. I’m not one that normally goes bottom fishing but this name and service grabs my attention.

  The stock is 75% off of highs and currently sports a relative strength rating of 4. With that said, it’s in an industry that has shown strength over the past six months and has a growing subscriber base.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 68% the past six quarters with an overall move from $6.7MM to $18.7MM that past eight quarters for a total gain of 179%. Earnings are negative so that is a concern as I prefer to see the company turn a profit.

  Institutional sponsorship is up 480% from 25 funds to 145 over the last four quarters.

  P/S is 5 with a market cap of $312MM.

  Technically, the chart is a disaster on the weekly. As for the daily view, I’m watching to see if a bottom has been put in above $5.50. A move back above $7 would be encouraging but the stock will face overhead resistance on the way back up, with moving averages and prior support zones.

  I do not own shares as of this post.



• DDOG – $178.11: Datadog, Inc. provides monitoring and analytics platform for developers, information technology operations teams, and business users in the cloud globally. The company’s SaaS platform integrates and automates infrastructure monitoring, application performance monitoring, and log management to provide real-time observability of customers technology stack.

  DDOG made last year’s list at $98.44 as I was already an owner of shares, with multiple buys dating back to Sept 2020. I still own the stock to this day and like the prospects going forward but it is a bit extended right now and the P/S valuation is high, at 63.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 69% the past eight quarters from $113MM to $270MM for a total gain of 138%. Earnings are positive, moving from $0.03 to $0.13 for a gain of 333% over the past eight quarters. Sales and earnings are rising which is a big plus in my book.

  Institutional sponsorship is up 568% from 164 funds to 1,097 over the last eight quarters.

  P/S is 63 with a market cap of $55B.

  Technically, the stock is trading 40% above its 200d moving average so I wouldn’t be adding here. For me, an ideal area to add shares with a better r/r is closer to the 200d ma. I did sell some shares in November but holding the remaining shares. I’d like to grab those shares back after any pullback to the 200d ma area.

  I currently own shares of DDOG as of this post.



• DOCN – $80.33: DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. operates a cloud computing platform in North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. Its platform provides on-demand infrastructure and platform tools for developers, start-ups, and small-to-medium size businesses. The company offers infrastructure solutions across compute, storage, and networking, as well as enables developers to extend the native capabilities of its cloud with fully managed application, container, and database offerings. Its users include software engineers, researchers, data scientists, system administrators, students, and hobbyists.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 30% the past eight quarters from $69MM to $111MM for a total gain of 61%. Earnings turned positive in the Sept-21 quarter, at $0.12, after being negative six of the seven prior quarters. EPS yearly estimates going forward show a positive 2021 at $0.34 and a 2022 at $0.59, for a 74% gain.

  Institutional sponsorship is up 164% from 92 funds to 243 over the last three quarters.

  P/S is 22 with a market cap of $8.7B.

  Technically, the stock is down 39% from highs, trading below the 50d ma but is still too young to have a 200d ma on the charts. The current base spans seven weeks and appears to have a bottom near $70. I’ll be watching to see if it can continue to build its first post IPO base, to setup for the next run.

  I do not own shares as of this post.



• GENI – $7.60: Genius Sports Limited develops and sells technology-led products and services to the sports, sports betting, and sports media industries. It offers technology infrastructure for the collection, integration, and distribution of live data of sports leagues; streaming solutions, comprising of technology, automatic production, and distribution for sports to commercialize video footage of their games; and end-to-end integrity services to sports leagues, such as full-time active monitoring technology, which uses mathematical algorithms to identify and flag suspicious betting activity in global betting markets, as well as full suite of online and offline educational and consultancy services. The company also provides live sports data collection; pre-game and in-game odds feeds; risk management services, including customer profiling, monitoring of incoming bets, automated acceptance and rejection of bets, and limit setting; live streaming services; creation, delivery, and measurement services for personalized online marketing campaigns.

  GENI challenges CURI as one of the more speculative selections on this year’s list. It’s a beaten down SPAC, 70% from highs, with a relative strength rating of 3. Another bottom fishing candidate which isn’t my typical play.

  Sales show a slight increase the past three quarters from $53MM to $69MM. Earnings are negative so this remains a concern as the stock moves forward.

  Institutional sponsorship is up 80% from 67 funds to 121 over the last four quarters, although this figured dropped from 125 to 121 from Jun-21 to Sept-21.

  P/S is 7 with a market cap of $1.4B.

  I bought shares of GENI just before the market close in 2021, based on an integrated potential I see for their services. Perhaps I am biased as a sports fan and casual user of the online gambling sites. Technically, there’s not much to speak about, other than a possible short-term bottom on the daily chart, above $6.50. The view is ugly on the weekly chart.

  I currently own shares of GENI as of this post.



• GLBE – $63.39: Global-E Online Ltd. provides a platform to enable and accelerate direct-to-consumer cross-border e-commerce. Its platform enables international shoppers to buy online and retailers to sell from, and to, worldwide.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 66% the past four quarters. December is always a big revenue month so it skews the overall quarterly trend. Earnings are negative so the company must work on this if the share price is to continue higher.

  Institutional sponsorship is up 70% from 96 funds to 164 over the last two quarters.

  P/S is 19 with a market cap of $9.1B.

  Technically, the stock recently recovered its 50d ma but is still too young to show a 200d ma on the charts. It’s trading in a four-month base after making an all-time high back in August, with support near $50. I’d like to see the right side of the base build back towards highs, with a possible handle before making new highs. The relative strength rating is a solid 97, which is one of the reasons I grabbed shares (it has been holding up well, during the growth shake down).

  I currently own shares of GLBE as of this post.



• INMD – $70.58: InMode Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets minimally-invasive aesthetic medical products based on its proprietary radiofrequency assisted lipolysis and deep subdermal fractional radiofrequency technologies. The company offers minimally-invasive aesthetic medical products for various procedures, such as liposuction with simultaneous skin tightening, body and face contouring, and ablative skin rejuvenation treatments.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 61% the past eight quarters from $47MM to $94MM for a total gain of 100%. The quarterly sales gains accelerated the past four quarters to 91% with a 184% increase in the Jun-21 quarter. Earnings have grown by 139% over the past eight quarters although the annual growth estimate slows in FY 2022, to just 7%.

  Institutional sponsorship is up 800% from 30 funds to 270 over the last eight quarters. That’s a large percentage increase but the overall number of funds is still relatively low. A move from 270 to 500+ funds would help the stock with its next run.

  P/S is 18 with a market cap of $5.7B.

  Technically, the stock has taken a breather the past eight weeks with some support above the 200d ma region. It has a lot to digest after a large run the past two years. I will be curious to see if it holds and further shapes this base or breaks below the 200d ma.

  I do not own shares as of this post.



• MQ – $17.17: Marqeta, Inc. operates a cloud-based open application programming interface platform that delivers card issuing and transaction processing services to developers, technical product managers, and visionary entrepreneurs. It offers its solutions in the various verticals, including commerce disruptors, digital banks, tech giants, and large financial institutions.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 90% the past seven quarters from $42MM to $131MM for a total gain of 207%. Earnings are negative but hovering near the breakeven point – it would be nice to see a positive reading, although annual estimates show negative readings looking forward.

  Institutional sponsorship is down 19.5% from 210 funds to 169 over the last two quarters.

  P/S is 20 with a market cap of $9.2B.

  Technically, the stock is trading below the 50d ma and is still too young to show a 200d ma. I grabbed shares recently, to get some skin in the game, to see if this one can establish some support between $15-$16 per share. MQ is in the fintech industry that I have liked for many years – and have owned many names in.

  I currently own shares of MQ as of this post.



• NET – $131.50: CloudFlare, Inc. operates a cloud platform that delivers a range of network services to businesses worldwide. The company provides an integrated cloud-based security solution to secure a range of combination of platforms, including public cloud, private cloud, on-premise, software-as-a-service applications, and Internet of Things (IoT) devices. Its security products comprise cloud firewall, bot management, distributed denial of service, IoT, SSL/TLS, secure origin connection, and rate limiting products.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 51% the past eight quarters from $83MM to $172MM for a total gain of 105%. Earnings went positive in the Sept-21 quarter for the first time at $0.01. FY 2021 shows an estimate of -$0.05 EPS while FY 2022 shows an estimate of $0.01.

  Institutional sponsorship is up 721% from 135 funds to 1,109 over the last eight quarters.

  P/S is 71 with a market cap of $42B.

  NET was a big winner for me in 2021, as I added it to my edge collection along with FSLY. I sold FSLY for a loss and went all-in on NET and rode it up to $200 per share. I sold all my shares as the stock was making the climax run.

  It now sits 40% below highs set in November. The current six week correction is much needed as the P/S was over 100. Even with a large haircut, the P/S is still above 70 (TTM), which is expensive. I like the r/r near the 200d ma and may look to establish a new position. I am watching closely to see if the market would like to further correct the high valuation, below the 200d ma. If so, I would bail quickly and wait for the next bottom. I see NET as a solid long-term winner.

  I do not own shares as of this post.



• OPRX – $62.11: OptimizeRx Corporation operates as a digital health company that provides communications solutions for life science companies, physicians, and patients. Its products and applications include financial messaging, a virtual patient support center that allows doctors and staff to access sample vouchers, co-pay coupons, and other patient support through their EMR and/or e-prescribe systems; and brand awareness and therapeutic support messaging services, such as brand awareness messages, reminder ads, therapeutic support messages, and unbranded messages.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 59% the past eight quarters from $7MM to $16MM for a total gain of 118%. Earnings went positive in the Jun-20 quarter at $0.02 and the remained positive for the past seven quarters, logging $0.09 in the Sept-21 quarter, for a 350% gain. EPS estimates going forward are +215% and +93% the next two fiscal years.

  Institutional sponsorship is up 144% from 105 funds to 257 over the last eight quarters.

  P/S is 19 with a market cap of $1.1B.

  Technically, the stock had an amazing run the past two years, going from $6.50 to $99.18. It has since corrected 37% from highs and is building an eight week base just below the 200d ma. The current price brings it back to the original high from the 2020 run. I like this industry and the services it provides so waiting to see how this base plays out for a possible setup for the next run.

  I do not own shares as of this post.



• RBLX – $103.16: Roblox Corporation develops and operates an online entertainment platform. It offers Roblox Client, an application that allows users to explore 3D digital worlds; and Roblox Studio, a toolset that allows developers and creators to build, publish, and operate 3D experiences and other content. The company also provides Roblox Cloud, a solution that provides services and infrastructure to power the human co-experience platform.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 92% the past eight quarters with an overall move from $147MM to $509MM for a total gain of 245%. Sales have averaged 120% the past four quarters: 110%, 140%, 127% & 102% respectively.

  Earnings have been positive six of the past eight quarters but the latest Sept quarter was 80% less than the Sep-20 quarter.

  Institutional sponsorship is up 100% from 197 funds to 395 over the last three quarters.

  P/S is 35 with a market cap of $59B.

  Technically, the young stock has traded mostly flat following the initial IPO day between $60 and $100. The price spiked in November to $141 but quickly gave back 30% of that gain and then settled near $100. It looks like a six week base is forming with support above the 200d ma. I’d like to see this base form the right side, prior to making a sustainable run.

  The valuation is expensive and I still have my concerns about kids phasing out as they hit their teenage years but RBLX is a metaverse play and the metaverse is a big part of the gaming future.

  I do not own shares as of this post.



• SI – $148.20: Silvergate Capital Corporation operates as a bank holding company for Silvergate Bank that provides banking products and services to business and individual clients in the United States and internationally. The company accepts deposit products, including interest and noninterest bearing demand accounts, money market and savings accounts, and certificates of deposit accounts. Its loan products comprise one-to-four family real estate loans, multi-family real estate loans, commercial real estate loans, construction loans, commercial and industrial loans, mortgage warehouse loans, and reverse mortgage loans, as well as consumer loans and other loans secured by personal property. The company also provides cash management services for digital currency-related businesses.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 30% the past eight quarters with an overall move from $23MM to $52MM for a total gain of 124%. Sales growth has averaged 62% the past four quarters: 16%, 26%, 82% & 123% respectively.

  Earnings have averaged a QoQ gain of 150% the past four quarters with an eight quarter increase of 363%, moving from $0.19 to $0.88.

  Institutional sponsorship is up 586% from 52 funds to 357 over the last eight quarters.

  P/S is 25 with a market cap of $3.9B.

  Technically, the stock rode the 200d ma for a large portion of 2021 as it has been mostly flat, going back to the peak in Feb 2021, above $187. The stock jumped to an all-time high of $230 in October but has since come back 38% over the past six weeks. The earnings and sales growth over the past three quarters is what has caught my attention, along with its digital currency business.

  I do not own shares as of this post.



• SOFI – $15.81: Social Finance, Inc., a finance company, operates an online platform that provides financial services. It offers student loan refinancing, private student loans, personal loans, auto loan refinance, home loans, mortgage loans, and investments, as well as insurance products for renters, homeowners, automobiles, and others. The company also offers SoFi Weekly Dividend ETF, an equity ETF to provide a weekly dividend payment to shareholders.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 55% the past three quarters with an overall move from $128MM to $293MM for a total gain of 128%. Earnings have been negative for the past five quarters with a -$0.05 EPS in Sep-21. EPS estimates show a negative reading of -$0.30 for FY 2022.

  Institutional sponsorship is up 149% from 49 funds to 122 over the last four quarters.

  P/S is 16 with a market cap of $12.8B.

  Technically, the stock has been erratic following the SPAC, rising to the $24 range in June and then again in November. Along with the peaks, have been the pullbacks to the $13 range on three separate occasions, March, August and December. It’s been a struggle for this stock to gain any traction which is why I bought and sold calls successfully in 2021. However, I believe it can be successful so I will be looking to grab actual shares in 2022, if the opportunity looks good.

  I do not own shares as of this post.



• U – $142.99: Unity Software Inc. operates a real-time 3D development platform. Its platform provides software solutions to create, run, and monetize interactive, real-time 2D and 3D content for mobile phones, tablets, PCs, consoles, and augmented and virtual reality devices.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 42% the past eight quarters with an overall move from $158MM to $286MM for a total gain of 81%. Earnings have been negative the past couple of years but there’s a chance to see positive EPS in FY 2023.

  Institutional sponsorship is up 193% from 225 funds to 660 over the last five quarters.

  P/S is 40 with a market cap of $40.1B.

  I bought shares of U last April at $100.99 and then I sold half of them in November at $177 and then the rest in December.

  Technically, the stock had a long 10-month saucer/cup shaped base but it never formed a handle. Instead, it had a one-week climax run, which quickly reversed and now has the price 30% below the highs set in November. It appears to be building a six-week base above the 200d ma. I am eager to grab this name again but I’d like to make sure a true base and bottom are in before re-engaging at this valuation.

  I do not own shares as of this post.



• UPST – $151.30: Upstart Holdings, Inc. operates a cloud- based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform. The company’s platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to its network of the company’s AI- enabled bank partners. Its platform connects consumers, banks, and institutional investors through a shared AI lending platform.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 219% the past eight quarters with an overall move from $62MM to $228MM for a total gain of 265%. Sales were up 1,040% in the Jun-21 quarter and 250% in the Sep-21 quarter.

  Earnings are up over 650% the past eight quarters from $0.08 in Dec-19 to $0.60 in Sep-21 quarter. It had EPS growth last quarter of 253%.

  The company makes money, regardless of the price pump in 2021 and subsequent fall, currently down 62% from highs (which topped $400 per share). Further, some question the quality of their loan products with regards to their high lending rates. It’s something to watch but as long as folks keep using the company and it remains profitable, investors should like it.

  Institutional sponsorship is up 511% from 53 funds to 324 over the last four quarters.

  P/S is 19 with a market cap of $12.4B.

  Technically, the stock is building a 10 week base as it digests the large gains made from March to October. It’s trading below both the 50d and 200d ma’s so it will likely need some time to base and then break above some resistance and eager sellers.

  I do not own shares as of this post.



• ZI – $64.20: ZoomInfo Technologies Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides go-to-market intelligence and engagement platform for sales and marketing teams in the United States and internationally. The company’s cloud-based platform provides information on organizations and professionals to help users identify target customers and decision makers, obtain continually updated predictive lead and company scoring, monitor buying signals and other attributes of target companies, craft messages, engage through automated sales tools, and track progress through the deal cycle.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 69% the past eight quarters with an overall move from $91MM to $197MM for a total gain of 117%.

  Earnings are up over 160% the past eight quarters from $0.05 in Dec-19 to $0.13 in Sep-21 quarter. Estimates show FY 2021 and FY 2022 growing +49% and +31% respectively.

  My company uses Zoominfo with some success so I have paid more attention to the name heading into 2022. I’ve spoken with other folks in the industry and their companies seem to be using it as well. All good signs for growth because I wasn’t initially sold on the product demand.

  Institutional sponsorship is up 169% from 191 funds to 515 over the last seven quarters.

  P/S is 38 with a market cap of $25.5B.

  Technically, the stock is trading above the 200d ma but below the 50d ma, in an up-trending pattern. The stock peaked above $64 IPO day, back in June 2020 and then fell to $30.83 but has since recovered nicely. It’s only 18% off of all-time highs and is in a decent r/r zone. It has potential for a nice run as long as sales and earnings continue to grow at +25% QoQ.

  I do not own shares as of this post.

As always, I screen for stocks every week throughout the year so candidates can change over time so I won’t restrict myself to the 20 names on this list. New names enter the market, new bases form and new opportunities always appear so as traders and investors, we must be prepared to act on the latest information. Some of the names on this watch list will work out and some may not work out in 2022.

Growth stocks that I own as of 1/1/2022:
APPS, COIN, DDOG, GENI, GLBE, MQ, PLTR, ROKU, SE, SQ, TDOC, ZM

IRA Stocks that I own as of 1/1/2022:
AAPL, AMZN, ARKG, COST, CVS, DIS, FB, GOOGL, HD, JNJ, JPM, MSFT, NFLX, PG, SBUX, T, TDOC, TGT, V, VZ, WMT

Crypto that I own as of 1/1/2022:
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and Cardano

The plan for the growth portfolio in 2022 is to hold and/or rotate the holdings into my strongest conviction stocks = best opportunities.

Enjoy and best of success in 2022!

This is what the Stocks to Watch 2021 list is going to consist of. I’m standing by the stocks and brands that I trust the most. I own several of these stocks already and plan to hold them while looking to add others. While the products and services of these stocks are well known and are not going anywhere anytime soon, their stock prices will fluctuate. This is NOT a buy list, it’s a trends list containing stocks of companies I believe will be around for years, growing sales and earnings, regardless of their recent performance.

I am sticking with the steady and consistent performers this year, stocks and companies that have proven themselves already. I have sprinkled in a few newbies but the bulk of the list are known brands. I believe this will be the trend going forward while smaller and lesser-known stocks will be volatile with short-lived hype.

I’m not posting the latest fad list of growth stocks that may pump up quickly in the matter of weeks or months only to worry if they will they collapse. Let’s leave that to the traders because I trade poorly.

Boring? Perhaps, but that’s great investing as the big trends last for years.

We should NOT want to be in-and-out of positions quickly. We should want to hold them, over time. We want to learn to be patient during drawdowns and negative headlines, knowing the story of the underlying stock has not changed. This is a lot easier said than done, especially in today’s world of instant satisfaction and gratification.

Playing the long game is a lesson that has been flashed to me constantly over the past twenty years but I think I am only starting to learn it now. I hope to continuously get better at applying this lesson over the next twenty years as it will substantially increase my bottom line.

2020 was an incredible year, in terms of the stock market and particularly growth stocks. The Stocks to Watch 2020 list finished the year with a collective gain of 202.35%, an incredible feat during a global pandemic. It was not surprising as many of the trends I identified in January were only accelerated by the pandemic, QE and the work-from-home lockdowns. All 15 stocks showed a gain and 12 of the 15 ended with a triple digit gain. LVGO was the biggest gainer, up 457.74%.

I don’t expect 2021 to repeat this feat so our expectations need to be set now, back to historical norms. In fact, I see several of these stocks as extended and beyond ideal entry areas and know they may be vulnerable as I post this annual list on an arbitrary date every New Year. Please pay attention to the individual analysis as several of these stocks are ripe for a deeper correction which will allow for better setups in the future. If you own them already, hold patiently and look to add on constructive dips.

Nothing on this blog is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold, rather it’s a diary of my own analysis into yearly trends. Again, this is NOT a buy list. This list identifies trends which I believe will continue to last for years.

I screen, watch and then buy stocks based on a few simple parameters:

• Great product, service and brand
• Rising sales QoQ and YoY
• Rising EPS QoQ and YoY or EPS looking to turn positive (from negative territory)
• Increasing institutional sponsorship
• Technically: grabbing near support, at a breakout or within a base (near the 50d or 200d moving average)

That’s really it – I keep it simple.

I must repeat what I said last year and will repeat every year:

The annual “Stocks to Watch” list often includes newer and up-coming growth stocks that I own or candidates I am looking to own. Stocks such as AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, NFLX, FB, V, MA, etc. should be owned in almost every portfolio already, whether in your active trading account or a more passive retirement account. Own those stocks as they will all likely double or triple over time, once again. Own an index fund as well and add dollars to it annually, during up and down years – just do it and check back in 30 years.

Honestly, 95% of all folks should just own index funds and call it a day and forget about trading or investing in individual equities.

My annual blog post, Stocks to Watch, targets equities that I trade within my active investing account, an account that’s smaller and more active than my conservative accounts (retirement, index and company stock). I don’t disclose the number of shares or the size of the account as that’s personal information. What I will disclose, here and on twitter, is what I own, what I buy and what I sell. I do believe in being transparent with the equities I hold as well as the equities I don’t when discussing them on the blog or social media.

I don’t trade for a living nor do I aspire to trade for a living. I invest to increase my overall net worth and to “play the game”. I do get a thrill at trying to beat the market averages by making my own decisions. Some years this works and in others, it doesn’t.

“Know what you own, and know why you own it” – Peter Lynch

Let’s dive into the trends and my favorite brands to own in 2021:

Trends that will continue during and post COVID & 30 stocks I like across the groups:

• E-commerce: SHOP SE PINS ETSY CHWY
• Payments: SQ PYPL
• Security: CRWD OKTA ZS
• Edge & Cloud: FSLY NET APPS TWLO
• Database: MDB DDOG PLTR
• Health: TDOC GDRX
• Fitness: PTON
• Streaming: SPOT
• Digital Adv: ROKU TTD
• Tech Utilities: ZM DOCU CRM U FVRR
• Services: UBER ABNB

NOTE: The bottom of this blog post lists 10 additional stocks that I considered but didn’t make the official cut (mostly newer names) and the 17 growth stocks I own as of today.

Enjoy my 15 Stocks to Watch for 2021, in no special order (stocks I own on this list = *):
TDOC*, PINS*, CRWD*, FSLY*, NET, APPS, DDOG*, U, PTON, ROKU*, ZM*, DOCU, CRM, UBER*, ABNB

• TDOC – $199.96: Teladoc Health, Inc. provides on-demand virtual healthcare services on a business-to-business basis with over 3,000 board certified physicians globally. The company merged with Livongo last year, which was one of my top plays and best performing investments.

  Sales have been increasing the past several quarters with an average QoQ gain of 53% for the most recent eight quarters from $122.7MM to $288.8MM for a total gain of 135%. Institutional sponsorship is up 88% from 651 funds to 1,230 funds the past four quarters.

  Technically, the 50d moving average and 200d moving average are converging in a six-month sideways pattern. The stock is currently sitting in an ideal accumulation zone. I recently added more shares and currently hold a position. It’s one of my strongest conviction stocks in the years ahead.

  I am long shares of TDOC



• PINS – $65.90: Pinterest, Inc. provides a visual discovery engine globally allowing people to find inspiration for their lives, including recipes, home and style ideas, travel destinations and others. Revenues are expected to reach more than $1.5 billion in FY 2020.

  Sales were disrupted briefly during COVID but have bounced back and have maintained a QoQ gain of 46% the past eight quarters from $273.2MM to $442.6MM for a total gain of 169%. Institutional sponsorship is up 76% from 515 funds to 907 funds the past four quarters.

  The stock has run from a low of $10.10 in March to a high of $72.88 in December. It’s extended from the 200d ma but riding the 50d ma. I bought PINS in July at $24.57 so it’s easy for me to say “stay put”. With that said, I feel PINS has room to continue this run based on the institutional accumulation. However, I would allow it to form a fresh base before looking to open a new position.

  I am long shares of PINS



• CRWD – $211.82: CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. provides cloud-delivered security solutions for next-generation endpoint protection in the United States and internationally. The Falcon platform runs through a software as a service subscription-based model that covers various security markets, such as endpoint security, security and IT operations, and threat intelligence to deliver comprehensive breach protection against sophisticated attacks.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 92% the past eight quarters from $80.5MM to $232.5MM for a total gain of 189%. Institutional sponsorship is up 364% from 203 funds to 942 funds the past four quarters. Funds can’t get enough of CRWD recently and I love owning what the funds own.

  I bought CRWD on February 25, 2020 at $56.75, just before the COVID market collapse. The shares plummeted to a low of $31.95 before rebounding and making a tremendous run to a high of $227 in December. I held during the March drop because I believed in the stock and still do today. Endpoint security protection is critical for today’s technology operations and I believe CRWD has a long runway, especially considering it’s a subscription based model.

  With that said, the stock is extended and I wouldn’t recommend buying shares at these levels. Allow the stock to digest recent gains with a pullback and possible base formation at the 50d ma or even deeper at the 200d ma. Let’s keep an eye out for future base formations.

  I am long shares of CRWD



• FSLY – $87.37: Fastly, Inc. operates an edge cloud platform for processing, serving, and securing its customer’s applications. The edge cloud is a category of Infrastructure as a Service that enables developers to build, secure, and deliver digital experiences at the edge of the Internet.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 42% the past eight quarters from $40.8MM to $70.6MM for a total gain of 73%. Institutional sponsorship is up 268% from 88 funds to 324 funds the past four quarters. Fund sponsorship is still relatively low and has a lot of upside potential if institutions want to get on board. The price will run if they get on board.

  Technically, the stock has been trading in a six month range with resistance near the $100 threshold while support sits in the $70 range, an area where the 200d ma has now entered. I like the technology and industry so I am long shares.

  I am long shares of FSLY



• NET – $75.99: CloudFlare, Inc. operates a cloud platform that delivers a range of network services to businesses worldwide. The company provides an integrated cloud-based security solution to secure a range of combination of platforms, including public cloud, private cloud, on-premise, software-as-a-service applications, and Internet of Things (IoT) devices.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 49% the past eight quarters from $55.5MM to $114.2MM for a total gain of 106%. Institutional sponsorship is up 186% from 138 funds to 396 funds the past four quarters. Sales are larger than FSLY and overall institutional sponsorship is higher but I think they can both do well going forward. I’m not smart enough to pick the winner so why not own them both.

  I do not have a position in NET as of this writing as the price action got out ahead of me before I could grab. It’s currently 14% off of its all-time high and pulling back to the 50d ma for the first time since September. Some may see this area as an accumulation zone. I prefer the 200d ma to grab but that’s down near $44 right now. Let’s see how the stock reacts at the 50d ma. I’m looking to get in and will advise if and when I do.



• APPS – $56.56: Digital Turbine, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides media and mobile communication products and solutions for mobile operators, application advertisers, device original equipment manufacturers, and other third parties worldwide. Its software platform that enables mobile operators and OEMs to control, manage, and monetize devices.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 52% the past eight quarters from $30.4MM to $70.9MM for a total gain of 133%. Institutional sponsorship is up 43% from 237 funds to 340 funds the past four quarters. I must note that sales the past two quarters has increased 93% and 116% vs the same quarters the prior year, the largest quarterly gains over the past two years. This is strength and explains why the stock doubled since October.

  I missed this stock altogether in 2020 and then fumbled when it pulled back to $25 in October. I should have pulled the trigger but I didn’t (a mistake in hindsight).

  Technically, this stock is extended from any ideal entry point. I will not chase which means I may continue to miss the stock, so be it. I will be watching to see if it constructively pulls back to the 50d ma and will advise if I grab shares at that time.



• DDOG – $98.44: Datadog, Inc. provides monitoring and analytics platform for developers, information technology operations teams, and business users in the cloud globally. The company’s SaaS platform integrates and automates infrastructure monitoring, application performance monitoring, and log management to provide real-time observability of customers technology stack.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 79% the past eight quarters from $61.6MM to $154.7MM for a total gain of 151%. Institutional sponsorship is up 313% from 164 funds to 678 funds the past four quarters. The quarterly sales growth has been amazing and funds on the street have been adding holdings into that sweet spot above 500 funds (this is where magic happens).

  Technically, the stock has traded sideways for six months with a shorter three-month cup with deep handle base. The handle is deep but still acceptable and the pivot point remains at $111.59. I added more shares December 31st as I was completing my research for this post. It’s now an ~5% position for me.

  I am long shares of DDOG



• U – $153.47: Unity Software Inc. operates a real-time 3D development platform. Its platform provides software solutions to create, run, and monetize interactive, real-time 2D and 3D content for mobile phones, tablets, PCs, consoles, and augmented and virtual reality devices.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 43% the past seven quarters from $116.5MM to $200.8MM for a total gain of 72%. Institutional sponsorship sits at 208 funds, the only quarter to report post IPO.

  The stock IPO’d on September 18, 2020 and quickly blasted up from the $60 range to $120 by November and is now above $150, roughly 12% off of its all-time high of $174.94. The stock is trading in a range over the past five weeks between $140 and $170. Considering it’s a young stock, it’s difficult to establish any longer term support and resistance zones so if you like it, perhaps start a position. I will be watching to see how it reacts as the 50d ma closes in. I am interested in starting a position but being patient.



• PTON – $151.72: Peloton Interactive, Inc. provides interactive fitness globally. It offers connected fitness products, such as the Peloton Bike and the Peloton Tread, which include touchscreen that streams live and on-demand classes. The company also provides connected fitness subscriptions for multiple household users, and access to all live and on-demand classes, as well as Peloton Digital app for connected fitness subscribers to provide access to its classes.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 123% the past eight quarters from $262.9MM to $757.9MM for a total gain of 188%. Institutional sponsorship is up 236% from 195 funds to 657 funds the past four quarters.

  If there’s one stock that I completely underestimated and got wrong in 2020, it was Peloton. I called it an expensive bike with an iPad strapped to it. Well, I couldn’t have been more wrong and have come around to admit that I didn’t understand the sub community and love for the interactive experience and brand. I own one now and have used it the past week and I quickly realized where I was wrong, in one short week. Hat tip to my wife as she convinced us to get one.

  The stock has run from a March low of $17.70 to a recent high of $167.37 and can be classified as extended from an ideal entry area. PTON gave investors an opportunity to add shares in November when it pulled back to the 50d between $95 and $121. I would like to grab shares but will be patient and wait until it pulls back to the 50d ma. I also believe this stock can use a longer and deeper base before going higher. I believe it has potential over time and isn’t the fad I initially pegged it as. We’ll see.



• ROKU – $332.02: Roku, Inc. provides a TV streaming platform and devices for entertainment.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 53% the past eight quarters from $275.7MM to $451.7MM for a total gain of 64%. Institutional sponsorship is only up 14% from 759 funds to 871 funds the past four quarters but up 242% the past 8 quarters.

  I stated that I missed this stock in 2019 but I didn’t in 2020. The position dropped nearly 30% after my buy but I held tight and it has worked out nicely, up from a low of $100.19 in June to a high of $363 in December. It was my conviction play of 2020 – believe in what you see and have patience during drawdowns.

  The stock is roughly 8% from highs but is still extended from an ideal entry area, well above the 50d and 200d moving averages. Hold if you are in and let it settle if you would like to get in. This stock has a history of building multi month bases so be patient. Many are discussing FUBO on fintwit (I posted about it in December as well) but I still prefer ROKU and will keep my money parked here.

  I am long shares of ROKU



• ZM – $344.07: Zoom Video Communications, Inc. provides a video-first communications platform globally. The company’s product portfolio includes Zoom Meetings that offers HD video, voice, chat, and content sharing through mobile devices, desktops, laptops, telephones, and conference room systems.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 170% the past eight quarters (top on this list) from $105.8MM to $777.2MM for a total gain of 635% (also top on this list). Institutional sponsorship is up 296% from 296 funds to 1,175 funds the past four quarters. The quarterly sales growth during COVID was amazing and expected, especially in hindsight. These growth figures will come back to earth and likely drop to double digits in the future, especially post COVID. With that said, I still like the company and its offerings beyond COVID (as much as I dislike the term, work has a “new normal”).

  I recently grabbed shares as the right side of this three month base sets up down towards the 200d ma. I would not be surprised to see the stock trade below the 200d ma as the bottom of the base looks to establish itself. The ideal area to grab shares for a multiyear leader is near the 200d ma. I will look to increase the position once the base appears to have formed a bottom. A base like this can take months to a full year to play out, following the near 10x run (see the 2019 SQ base following it’s 10x run).

  I am long shares of ZM



• DOCU – $222.30: DocuSign, Inc. provides cloud based software, globally, using an e-signature solution that enables businesses to digitally prepare, execute, and act on agreements.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 41% the past eight quarters from $199.7MM to $382.9MM for a total gain of 92%. Institutional sponsorship is up 74% from 762 funds to 1,332 funds the past four quarters.

  The stock made an amazing run from the $50 area in the summer of 2019 to a high of $290.23 in August 2020. The high was briefly visited during what appears to be a slightly rising sideways six month base as price rides along the 50d ma. The 200d ma has closed considerable ground vs price since they touched back in March.

  One may consider to add along the 50d ma or wait to see if the 200d ma closes the gap at which time would make an ideal risk/reward setup. I think DOCU has more room to run and will be watching to see if it gets closer to the rising 200d ma (remember, so many thought TDOC would not touch the 200d and we’re there now). They all eventually come back to the 200d.



• CRM – $222.53: salesforce.com, inc. develops enterprise cloud computing solutions with a focus on customer relationship management worldwide.

  Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 27% the past eight quarters from $3,603.0MM to $5,419.0MM for a total gain of 50%. Institutional sponsorship is up 17% from 2,988 funds to 3,509 funds the past four quarters.

  The stock is trading 22% off of all-time highs, set in September, and is now trading back towards the 200d ma. Historically, CRM has been an ideal buy every time it trades back towards the 200d ma so that’s why I am interested. I was a fan of Slack (WORK) before CRM acquired it and believe it can help in their suite of offerings but by no means is that the reason why I am interested (just an added benefit).

  I plan to allow the stock to smooth out this four month base and catch support at or near the 200d ma before considering a buy (it’s getting close).



• UBER – $51.18: Uber Technologies, Inc. develops and operates proprietary technology applications globally. It connects consumers with independent providers of ride services for ridesharing services, as well as connect consumers with restaurants and food delivery service providers for meal preparation and delivery services.

  Prior to COVID, sales averaged a QoQ gain of 25% between Dec-18 and Dec-19 from $2,974.0MM to $4,069.0MM for a total gain of 37%.

  Post COVID, sales have dropped to an average QoQ gain of only 11% the past eight quarters from $2,974.0MM to $3,129.0MM for a total gain of 5%.

  Institutional sponsorship is up 37% from 894 funds to 1,226 funds the past four quarters.

  In my opinion and as an investor in UBER (bought shares July 17, 2020 at $32.46), folks should focus on pre-COVID sales growth, recent sales growth as we navigate through COVID and future post-COVID sales growth. The stock is up 57% since my purchase, which is based on the future of this company and their “verb-like” status in society: “Call an Uber”.

  The price has been moving sideways over the past six weeks after the 50% run from the gap-up in November. An ideal grab can happen near the 50d ma or support above $48.

  I am long shares of UBER



• ABNB – $146.82: Airbnb, Inc. operates a platform for stays and experiences to guests worldwide. The company’s marketplace model connects hosts and guests online or through mobile devices to book spaces and experiences.

  Prior to COVID, sales averaged a QoQ gain of 32% between Dec-18 and Dec-19 from $840.6MM to $1,106.8MM for a total gain of 32%.

  Post COVID, sales have dropped to an average QoQ gain of only 9% the past eight quarters from $840.6MM to $1,342.3MM for a total gain of 60%.

  Institutional sponsorship has not been reported yet due to the recent IPO on December 10, 2020.

  Similar to UBER, I hold the same opinion that folks should focus on pre-COVID sales growth, recent sales growth as we navigate through COVID and future post-COVID sales growth. The stock looks expensive near $146 but is already 16% off highs. It’s too early to identify a base or use major moving averages so it’s a purely discretionary decision right now, using fundamentals and brand.

  Figures aside, I have had great experiences using Airbnb in multiple locations and feel others have had the same. I believe the company will continue to grow and expand offerings post COVID so it’s one to watch.

  I don’t own shares today but I am interested due to the simple fact that it’s a strong brand and this is my theme heading into 2021. Strong brands.

I plan to screen for and watch other stocks in the market and won’t restrict myself to the 15 names on this list throughout the year. I have 30 names listed above and 10 additional below. I am excited for 2021 but cautious at the same time.

10 Additional Stocks I considered but didn’t officially make the cut – let’s track:
MWK, BIGC, NCNO, LMND, SKLZ, DKNG, AI, SNOW, ZI, BEPC

Growth stocks I own, a total of 17 positions as of 01/01/21:
CGC, CRWD, DDOG, FSLY, GRWG, MDB, OKTA, PINS, PLTR, ROKU, SE, SQ, TCEHY, TDOC, TTD, UBER, & ZM

The plan throughout 2021 is to hold and/or rotate the portfolio into my strongest conviction stocks = best brands.

Previous Stocks to Watch Lists:

January 5, 2020: Stocks to Watch 2020

January 1, 2019: Stocks to Watch 2019

January 1, 2018: Stock Trends for 2018

January 2, 2017: Stock Trends for 2017

January 18, 2015: Stock Trends for 2015

I received questions on social media asking why I didn’t include the FAANG stocks and other big-time names that normally dominate the headlines. The annual “Stocks to Watch” list typically includes new and up-coming growth stocks that I own or candidates I am looking to own. Stocks such as AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, FB, V, MA, etc. should be owned in almost every portfolio already, whether in your active trading account or a more passive retirement account. Own those stocks as they will all likely double or triple over time, once again. Own an index fund as well and add dollars to it annually, during up and down years – just do it and check back in 30 years.

Honestly, 95% of all folks should just own index funds and call it a day and forget about trading or investing in individual equities.

My annual blog post, Stocks to Watch, targets equities that I trade within my active trading/investing account, an account that’s smaller and more active than my conservative accounts (retirement, index and company stock). I don’t disclose the number of shares or the size of the account as that’s personal information. What I will disclose, here and on twitter, is what I own, what I buy and what I sell. I do believe in being transparent with the equities I hold as well as the equities I don’t when discussing them on the blog or social media.

As some term it on Fintwit: “Skin-in-the-Game”.

I like that because I love the book “Skin in the Game” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

I don’t trade for a living nor do I aspire to trade for a living. I invest to increase my overall net worth and to “play the game”. I do get a thrill at trying to beat the market averages by making my own decisions. Some years this works and in others, it doesn’t.

I can hold a position for years or I can be out within days. It’s not about being right or wrong, it’s about making money and protecting capital. I’m wrong with my buys and sells more often than I am right but overall, I usually make money over the long term because I often catch a couple big time winners, which double or triple within a year or two. I am not a millionaire from investing in stocks so don’t rely on me for the answers – fintwit claims that these geniuses exist all over the place so good luck finding them (hint). My primary income and net worth is generated from my business career, which focuses on commercial real estate.

With that said, let’s jump right into it. I make a note of the equities I currently own (on this year’s list), which ones I am looking to own and which ones I am waiting for ideal setups.

Enjoy my 15 Stocks to Watch for 2020, in no special order:

• OKTA – $115.37: Okta, Inc. provides identity solutions for enterprises and other businesses, serving in the security software sector, along with companies such as PANW and CYBR. Sales have been increasing QoQ by an average of 58% the past 8 quarters, from $77.1MM to $153.0MM for a total gain of 98%. The stock debuted as an IPO on April 7, 2017 yet institutional fund sponsorship has increased more than 84% over the past four quarters from 449 to 827 funds.

  Experience shows stocks that enter the 500-1,000 fund level are prime candidates for additional gains. It’s not a given but I always want to be on a train with strong institutional support.

  Technically, the stock made an all-time high back in July, reaching $141.85, before building its current five-month base. Shares can be accumulated now as it trades just above both the 50d and 200d moving averages. I said last year that “I see OKTA as a classic $60 to $100 mover over the next 12 to 24 months.” Well, it made that move and then some within the first six months of 2019. I can see OKTA above $200 over the next 12 to 24 months.

  I am long shares of OKTA.



• STNE – $39.89: StoneCo Ltd. provides financial technology solutions that empower merchants and integrated partners to conduct electronic commerce across in-store, online, and mobile channels in Brazil.

  Borrowing my line from last year, I’ve been a big fan and holder of financial solutions and credit companies for years (i.e.: Visa, Mastercard, Square) so naturally, STNE grabbed my attention following its IPO in October 2018. Sales have increased an average of 65% per quarter (QoQ) over the past eight quarters (moving from $74.7MM to $161.1MM), while earnings are up an average of 376% the past 8 quarters (going from $0.03 to $0.17).

  The stock is less than 10% from an all-time high as it continues to build the final side of its nine-month base. I wouldn’t mind a several week handle to form on this irregular shaped base before the stock looks to make a new all-time high.

  Warren Buffett is one of the top holders of the stock but it could use more institutional support in order to make another double up. I like STNE to double up over the next 12+ months. Shares can be accumulated near either of the major moving averages (50d or 200d).

  I am long shares of STNE.



• ROKU – $133.90: Roku, Inc. provides a TV streaming platform and devices for entertainment.

  I missed this stock in 2019 as it exploded from $26.30 to more than $176 per share (December 2018 to September 2019). Coworkers and friends were talking about “Roku” but I had my head in the sand as I wasn’t a user of the product = “you don’t know what you don’t know”.

  Sales have increased a total of 38% over the past 8 quarters from $188.3MM to $260.9MM with an average gain of 46% QoQ. Institutional sponsorship is up more than 145% the past four quarters, entering that key 500-1,000 fund range.

  The stock has been building a base the past four months but the company has a product and service that is as hot as anything else on the market right now so I am interested. It currently trades below the 50d ma but above the 200d ma so one can accumulate shares here, for the long term. I can see a longer base formation before a return to new highs later in 2020.

  I am long shares of ROKU.



• ZM – $68.04: Zoom Video Communications, Inc. provides a video-first communications platform (via the cloud) by connecting people through frictionless video, voice, chat, and content sharing.

  My biggest crutch with ZM in 2019 was its valuation, too high. It’s still high today but the technology is first class as I use it on a daily basis. I am now interested in grabbing shares due to the six month base that the stock has formed. The stock trades 37% off of all-time highs and may be beginning to build the right side of a long base. Risk takers can grab shares here to see if this is the bottom.

  Sales have increased 227% the past eight quarters with an average gain of 132% QoQ while earnings have turned positive with an 800% and 300% increase the past two quarters, as compared to the same period the prior year.

  I do not own shares as of this writing but I am very close to pulling the trigger on my initial position and will post to twitter when I do.



• LVGO – $25.06: Livongo Health, Inc. develops digital health devices to monitor chronic health conditions. The platform provides cellular-connected devices, supplies, informed coaching, data science-enabled insights, and facilitates access to medications.

  The stock debuted with an IPO on July 25, 2019 and quickly fell by more than 50% in value. Bottoming in September, the stock then doubled in price by Thanksgiving before cooling off to end the year. So goes the volatility with new IPOs.

  What attracts me to the stock is the innovative SaaS service with regards to the healthcare industry and their small but explosive sales growth QoQ. Sales have increased from $7.7MM in December 2017 to $46.7MM in September 2019, a 500% increase for an average of 135% quarterly. Even though sales are exploding, earnings remain negative and are projected to stay this way for at least the next year, although the loss was cut in half in the September 2019 period to -0.04, from -0.10.

  The 50d ma is now trending higher so investors can start to accumulate shares here, along the moving average. The point and figure chart suggests some possible downside towards $22 so I haven’t pulled the trigger just yet but I am ready. This area seems to be a comfortable entry, longer term.

  I will buy shares if it drops to the $22 range. If not, I’ll buy along the 50d ma and will advise on twitter.



• WORK – $22.48: Slack Technologies, Inc. operates Slack, a business technology software platform that brings together people, applications, and data, as well as sells its offering under a software-as-a-service model.

  I bought shares of WORK in August 2019 and had to sell for a loss by early September as I was just wrong in my timing. Unfortunately, I was playing a game of “FOMO” and paid for it but kept it to a small, reasonable loss. It happens, no big deal. I am interested again now that the stock is trading 15%-20% below my sell price but more importantly, it seems to have formed an 11-week base with a positive move above the 50d ma. Shares can be accumulated in this area for a nice longer term risk-to-reward play.

  Sales have increased from $68.8MM to $168.7MM over the past eight quarters for a total gain of 145% or 114% QoQ. Institutional sponsorship is still relatively low but that’s mostly because the stock is still young with an IPO date of June 2019.

  I plan re-enter this stock and will advise when I do so.



• SQ – $62.56: Square, Inc. provides payment and point-of-sale solutions with an ecosystem that includes point-of-sale software and hardware that offers sellers to payment and point-of-sale solutions.

  I’m a holder of SQ shares for a while now and lived through much of the 2019 calendar year without much excitement, share price wise. The stock has been building a sideways base for 15 months, after making an all-time high above $100 in September 2018. The stock returned 10x the prior 26 months so I understand that it has to digest those gains. However, my patience has been tested over the past six months. I will continue to hold because I believe in the company and their offerings, especially Cash App and their accumulation of Bitcoin. I have been accumulating Bitcoin throughout 2019 as well with two recent purchases in December 2019 (via Gemini).

  Institutional sponsorship has gone from 714 in December 2017 to 1,102 in September 2019, a 54% increase. However, the number of funds has slightly decreased from two quarters ago, when it peaked at 1,151. Sales have averaged a QoQ gain of 46% for the past two years, increasing from $616MM to $1.266B while earnings have averaged a QoQ gain of 71% during that same time period, moving from $0.08 to $0.25. The financials look solid so I will remain patient and hold shares to see if the stock price will start a new move higher (a double up is not out of the question).

  I am long shares of SQ.



• CGC – $21.09: Canopy Growth Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in growing, possession, and sale of medical and recreational cannabis. Its products include dried flowers, oils and concentrates, softgel capsules, and hemps.

  I mentioned last January that CGC could trade back to $50 which it did before the end of that month and then again by May 2019. Beyond that, it was all downhill. The stock is volatile but that’s because the product is controversial and the industry is new. With that said, I see steady upside over time (I don’t know if that time is 2020 or beyond).

  Sales have increased from $21.7MM in December 2017 to $76.6MM in September 2019, while peaking at $106.5MM in the March 2019 period. The increase is 252% over the past 8 quarters with an average gain of 184% QoQ. Unfortunately, the earnings are still negative and I am not quite sure when they will turn positive. Due to the product, institutions have been cautious accumulating shares as sponsorship has only increased by 36% the past four quarters. This is where I see the opportunity in the stock, with future institutional interest as earnings push towards profitability and the taboo around marijuana subsides.

  Technically, the stock has been building a deep base the past eight months, losing half its previous value. It appears that the stock may be building a base/bottom the past six weeks but I believe investors have time to figure this out as the 200d ma is 50% higher than the current ticker price. As I said last year, I believe this stock will once again trade above $50 per share so one can accumulate now or wait for the bottom to confirm and a move to commence on the right side of the base.

  I was long shares of CGC but sold in 2019. I plan to re-enter CGC after it confirms a bottom as I like the leader in a potentially explosive industry.



• CRWD – $49.87: CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. develops security solutions by offers Falcon platform, a cloud based security solution that protects workloads across on-premise, virtualized, and cloud-based environments running on various endpoints, such as laptops, desktops, servers, virtual machines, and IoT devices.

  The stock debuted June, 6, 2019 and quickly doubled within two months but then joined the SaaS slide this past fall and gave back more than 50%, trading slightly above the low of the four month base. The stock is looking to re-take the 50d ma and will become a buy candidate if it does (essentially the current area of trading near $50 per share).

  Sales have seen tremendous growth over the past eight quarters, increasing from $38.7MM to $125.1MM for a QoQ average of 115%. I’d like to see the company turn a profit which would help ignite the share price again.

  I will be looking to add shares with a close above the 50d ma, following a three week tight base to end 2019.



• TCEHY – $48.01: Tencent Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, providing Internet value-added services (VAS) and online advertising services in Mainland China and around the world. It offers online games and social networks across various online platforms; online advertising services, such as media, social, and display-based advertising services; and FinTech, cloud, television series and film production, and other services for individual and corporate users. The company also develops software; develops and operates online games; and provides information technology, information system integration, asset management, online literature, and online music entertainment services.

  The company is a holding behemoth, owning a percent of the following companies: JD, TSLA, SEA, ATVI, SNAP, SPOT, DOYU, VIP and many others.

  It has been more than 21 months since Tencent made an all-time high with the past twelve months showcasing a volatile sideways pattern. Institutional Sponsorship is light at 266 funds, surprisingly, but I attribute that to it being a Chinese holding company. However, BABA has 3,805 funds holding the stock so TCEHY has a lot of upside, in my opinion.

  Sales have increased 30% QoQ the past two years, moving from $10.2B to $13.6B, massive revenue. Earnings are positive but growth has been slowing, averaging only 16% QoQ the past two years.

  I am long shares of TCEHY.



• PYPL – $108.17: PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates as a technology platform and digital payments company that enables digital and mobile payments on behalf of consumers and merchants worldwide. Its payment solutions include PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, and iZettle products.

  I started watching PYPL prior to its IPO and made mention of it in my “Stock Trends for 2015” under the heading “Digital Payments (currency) & Mobile Wallets” which highlighted the following names: AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, V, MA. I bought shares following the IPO and held until 2017 and then sold. Initially my sell looked correct as 2018 was a mostly choppy sideways trend but then it popped again in 2019 but I kept waiting for a pull back and missed the move.

  Here we are trading along the 200d ma inside a five-month base which is starting to build the right side, an ideal accumulation opportunity. Sales are averaging gains of 18% QoQ while earnings are averaging gains of 29% QoQ the past two years. Institutional sponsorship has increased 31% over the same time period, currently sitting at 3,047 funds.

  I will be looking to grab shares in the near term and will advise on twitter when I do.



• MDB – $131.61: MongoDB, Inc. operates as a general purpose database platform worldwide, offering a subscription package for enterprise customers to run in the cloud, on-premise, or in a hybrid environment.

  The stock debuted October 19, 2017 and took a quarter to get going but once it did, it moved nearly 6-fold from its low in Feb 2018 to its high in June 2019. The stock has been forming a six month base since making its high and appears to be maintaining support near the 200d ma, trading slightly below the line. Institutional sponsorship has increased 6-fold, along with the share price, from 87 funds to 635 funds in the most recent reporting period.

  Sales have increased from $50.1MM to $109.4MM the past eight quarters, averaging 63% gains QoQ during that same period. The downside, earnings are still negative as the company struggles to turn a profit. I prefer companies with positive earnings but the subscription platform they offer really intrigues me for future sales and eventual profit.

  I have been watching the stock since the summer of 2019, noting that it needs to form a decent base. Shares can be added near or above the 200d ma.

  I do not own shares but it’s on this list as a possible add in 2020 as the base continues to build.



• SNAP – $16.33: Snap Inc. operates as a camera company offering Snapchat, a camera application that helps people to communicate through short videos and images.

  I’ve been a supporter and holder of social media stocks (FB, TWTR & SNAP) so adding SNAP to this year’s list shouldn’t have been difficult but I use Facebook and Twitter daily – I don’t use Snapchat. I’m also over 40 years old so perhaps I don’t qualify “to understand”.

  I was hesitant to add SNAP even though I successfully made money on the stock in the past, prior to its collapse in 2018. I did not jump back on board in 2019 when it made a solid run last year but I like the current technical setup. It appears to be in the midst of a five month base, currently building the right side with its sights set on a new 52-week high.

  Sales have increased from $285.7MM to $446.2MM the past eight quarters, averaging gains of 48% QoQ (50% in Sept 19, the largest reading since the Mar 18 period). Earnings are negative but knocking on the door of becoming positive in 2020. Fund sponsorship is also accelerating, jumping 192% the past four quarters with 573 funds as of December 2019.

  I don’t own shares and I’m not sure if I will re-enter SNAP but I am intrigued.



• SHOP – $397.58: Shopify Inc. provides a cloud-based multi-channel commerce platform for small and medium-sized businesses. Its platform provides merchants with a single view of business and customers in various sales channels, including Web and mobile storefronts, physical retail locations, social media storefronts, and marketplaces; and enables to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, ship orders, build customer relationships, leverage analytics and reporting, and access financing. – the long description from Yahoo Finance.

  Shopify is the stock I have completely missed to this point as I have never owned a share. It happens, sometimes you miss and continue to hesitate to get in. One may argue, “why now” at nearly $400 per share. The stock is extended so I wouldn’t advise to buy at the moment but it’s one I advise to watch for the proper setup or pullback as this company is a beast. It might have a large correction coming, to digest prior gains and 2020 may not be its year but I can no longer ignore.

  Sales have increased from $222.8MM to $390.6MM the past eight quarters, averaging gains of 57% QoQ. Minus last quarter, earnings have turned positive the past two years and expect to jump considerably in 2020. Institutional sponsorship has jumped 70% the past two years, with more than 1,000 funds currently holding shares.

  I am not buying at the moment but watching for an ideal setup with better risk-to-reward.



• SE – $40.22: Sea Limited engages in the digital entertainment, e-commerce, and digital financial service businesses in Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and internationally. It provides Garena digital entertainment platform for users to access mobile and PC online games, and eSports operations; and access to other entertainment content, such as live streaming of online gameplay and social features.

  What stands out most about SE is the accelerating sales figures, increasing from $124.6MM in December 2017 to $610.1MM in September 2019, a near 500% increase in two short years. The QoQ numbers are averaging gains of 112% the past eight quarters with figures increasing every quarter – amazing. The downside, earnings are negative and look to stay this way for at least another year.

  The stock is based in Singapore so institutions have been shy in accumulating shares, with only 276 funds reporting in the latest period. Shares have increased by more than 200% the past twelve months with a big gap-up in November. I prefer gaps to close before moving higher so we’ll see how SE reacts going forward. Shares are currently extended so I am not buying right now. I like the growth story and future potential so I will watch until an ideal setup presents itself.

  I do not own shares and will wait for a proper setup.

Tickers included:
STNE, OKTA, ROKU, ZM, LVGO, WORK, SQ, CGC, CRWD, TCEHY, PYPL, MDB, SNAP, SHOP, SE

Previous Stocks to Watch Lists:

January 1, 2019: Stocks to Watch 2019

January 1, 2018: Stock Trends for 2018

January 2, 2017: Stock Trends for 2017

January 18, 2015: Stock Trends for 2015

Stocks to Watch 2020 – Full Analysis

1/1/2020:

I am posting an abbreviated annual January 1st list of “Stocks to Watch 2020” prior to getting my full analysis uploaded by the end of this weekend. I aimed to get the full blog post up by tonight but I ran short of time with recent holiday travel followed by New Year’s Eve/Day celebrations.

The 2019 Stocks to Watch list contained 14 original names with a final result of +46.36%, besting the S&P 500, DJIA and Nasdaq.

• 10 stocks were positive
• 3 stocks were negative
• 1 stock was acquired

COUP was the leading gainer, +132.66%, joined by three additional triple digit gainers (TTD, STNE & PAYC).

Stocks to Watch 2020:

• STNE – $39.89
• OKTA – $115.37
• ROKU – $133.90
• ZM – $68.04
• LVGO – $25.06
• WORK – $22.48
• SQ – $62.56
• CGC – $21.09
• CRWD – $49.87
• TCEHY – $48.01
• PYPL – $108.17
• MDB – $131.61
• SNAP – $16.33
• SHOP – $397.58
• SE – $40.22

I will follow-up with a detailed analysis for each stock by Sunday night (January 5, 2020).

I did not include any of the stocks listed from my annual “Stocks to Watch in 2019” nor did I list more established stocks that have been trading on the market for years (including holdings already in my account).

I wanted to develop a fresh list of potential opportunities that I could add to the portfolio (as of 7/29/19, I do not own any of the stocks listed below, with the exception of UBER).

With that said, traders and investors must be prudent when establishing positions by paying careful attention to the overall market health (is the market extended), the stock performance itself (is the individual stock extended) and the valuation of the stock (several listed have high valuations which do concern me short term).

• ZM – $96.47: Zoom Video Communications, Inc.

  The stock, which provides remote conferencing services using cloud computing, IPO’d in April and quickly traded from $60 to above $100 within 6 weeks. I’m not comfortable with the pricey valuation of the stock but I use and believe in the product. It’s everywhere I conduct business: clients, consultants, vendors, manufacturers, etc.

  The 50-day moving average (50d ma) formed as of July and the stock is trading above it over the course of the month. Valuation aside, an ideal accumulation area is near this moving average ($90.91 as of 7/29/19).

  Sales have increased from $30.9MM in July 2017 to $122.0MM in April 2019, an average change of 145% over the past 8 quarters.

  Earnings have been positive the past 4 quarters but only by a few cents.

  The stock is worth a position with a tight leash due to that high valuation.



• WORK – $33.01: Slack Technologies Inc.

  The stock, offering a cloud-based set of proprietary team collaboration software tools and online services, debuted in June and has struggled as the price is down about 20% from the peak on its first day of trading.

  Sales have increased from $51.3MM in July 2017 to $134.8MM in April 2019 for an average quarterly gain of 96% (this figured has dropped from 160% in Jan 2018 to 67% in the latest reporting period). Note that earnings are still negative at -0.07 in the latest quarter.

  Considering the stock is still so young, it’s difficult to identify an ideal entry area without knowing how far it can fall before establishing a base. With that said, I like the technology so one could grab shares here and hold longer term.



• CRWD – $87.23: CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

  Another young stock, debuting in June 2019, coming from a hot cyber security sector (provides endpoint security, threat intelligence, and cyberattack response services), competing against companies such as PANW, CYBR and OKTA. Okta has been one of the best performers from the first half of 2019 in my Stocks to Watch (+120.27% as of 7/27/19).

  Sales have increased from $26.7MM in July 2017 to $96.1MM in April 2019 for an average quarterly gain of 118%. Earnings are still negative and are estimated to stay that way for at least the next two years.

  Similar to several others on this list, the stock is too new to establish an ideal technical entry point so if you believe in cyber security, you can start to accumulate shares on any pullback on lighter volume. Keep an eye on the gap-up that took place July 18th to July 19th when the stock gained 14% from $72 to $83. Gaps don’t always close prior to major runs but I prefer them to.



• SE – $36.73: Sea Ltd.

  A young Singapore based company that specializes in wireless and wired digital entertainment and e-commerce platforms.

  Sales have increased from $101.6MM in June 2017 to $351.9MM in March 2019 for an average quarterly gain of 72%. Note that sales have accelerated during the past four quarters for an average gain of 113%. Earnings are still negative and are estimated to stay that way for at least the next two years. The number of institutions owning the stock has nearly doubled in a year but remains relatively low compared to high growth stocks (plenty of room for accumulation).

  The stock has more than tripled since the December lows and is well above the 50d and 200d ma’s so I suggest accumulation to wait for a healthy pullback, meaning a drop on lighter volume. The 50d ma would be the first area of accumulation as the 200d is $16 lower than the trading price. Maintain tight stops if you accumulate as the stock rises, well above the moving averages.



• ESTC – $100.38: Elastic NV

  I posted the following tweets regarding ESTC in April and May (a search company that builds self-managed and SaaS offerings for search, logging, security, and analytics use cases):

  4/24/19: “$ESTC $85.95 has been making my screens for the past week or so. On watch as it looks ready to move back towards $100 building right side of base. Sales growing an ave of 78% QoQ past 7 qtrs.”

  5/09/19: “$ESTC $85.43, building a quiet 10 week base before possible move back towards $100 and beyond. One could grab shares here just above 50d ma.”

  Well, the stock broke out of the flat base and is now trading above $100. The stock hit a low of $72 on June 26th and has since gain $30 over the past four weeks on healthy volume. It’s a bit extended now so watch for any pullback on lighter volume, back to the 20d or 50d moving averages. We can also watch to see if the triple digit threshold can act as support for a possible entry area.

  Sales have increased from $31.6MM in July 2017 to $80.6MM in April 2019 for an average quarterly gain of 76%. Earnings are still negative and are estimated to stay that way for at least the next two years.



• DOCU – $53.90: Docusign, Inc

  The company provides e-signatures that allows businesses to digitally prepare, execute and act on agreements. Being in the real estate industry (design and construction), we are constantly drafting, reviewing and executing contracts and I can tell you that the majority of folks are using this solution.

  Sales have increased from $125.5MM in July 2017 to $214.0MM in April 2019 for an average quarterly gain of 36%. Earnings turned positive in the January 2018 quarter and have maintained this territory since, with a $0.07 EPS in April 2019. Estimated annual EPS is projected to go from $-0.18 in 2018 to $0.38 in 2021.

  The stock has been forming a base the past five months since peaking at $59.62 in March 2019. An investor can accumulate now if they believe in the business. Ideal entry points are near the 50d and 200d moving averages.



• ZS – $85.57: Zscaler, Inc.

  Zscaler operates in the global cloud security sector so it also competes against PANW CYBR OKTA and CRWD. I have liked this sector for several years now and don’t believe it’s going away anytime soon.

  Sales have increased from $36.5MM in July 2017 to $79.1MM in April 2019 for an average quarterly gain of 56%. Earnings crossed from negative in July 2018 to positive in October 2018 and have remained there since. Estimated annual EPS is projected to go from $-0.20 in 2018 to $0.19 in 2020. The number of institutions owning the stock has doubled over the past 18 months.

  I started to tweet about Zscaler in February 2019, as it was making screens on a consistent basis. I profiled the chart in March saying:

  “$ZS + 71% YTD. Exploded in March but the gap-up always concerns me. Ideally, I’d like to see that close, which could provide entry near 200d”

  Well, the gap didn’t close, which I noted doesn’t always happen when a stock wants to run. I didn’t by ZS and it has since gone from $67 to as high as $89. The stock is up 110% year to date and is currently extended from an ideal entry point but keep an eye on it for any healthy pullback to a support area of major moving average. The 50d ma has been a nice accumulation area over the past several months, providing 4 opportunities to enter.



• BZUN – $48.68: Baozun Inc.

  The stock, which is a famous brand E-commerce business partner, and a leading digital technology and solution company in China, has been building a cup shaped base over the past 12 months after reaching a high of $67.41 in June 2018. It corrected to a low of $27.81 in the market lows of December 2018, followed by the right side of the base in 2019.

  Sales have been increasing an average of 27% QoQ over the past two years while earnings are positive, between $0.09 and $0.50.

  The ideal accumulation area is closer to the 50d and 200d moving averages. The month of May provided investors with an ideal opportunity in the 30’s (at the 200d ma) so let’s keep an eye on another possible setup. The stock appears to be pulling back nicely over the past four weeks.



• GBTC – $12.16: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust

  The GBTC shares track the Bitcoin market price (based on Bitcoin per Share), less fees and expenses. Each share represents ownership of approximately 0.092 bitcoin, an amount that will decrease over time as management fees are charged to the fund. It’s not a 1-to-1 correlation to the actual price of Bitcoin so that’s why I recommend investors to buy Bitcoin direct rather than have profits eroded with this vehicle.

  With that said, it’s an alternative to trade Bitcoin if you don’t want to buy the crypto currency direct and trade it easily in your stock account. Gemini or Coinbase are the exchanges to buy direct (I currently own Bitcoin through each exchange but have been growing greater confidence in Gemini).

  GBTC has traded back down to its 50d ma (just below) over the past several days which could be a short term buy area. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bitcoin and GBTC corrected back (closer) to their respective 200d ma’s, which currently sits at $7.25. The $9 area is not out of the question and would be an ideal level to accumulate for a trade ($8,000’s for the actual crypto currency).

  This is a speculative Bitcoin play without buying the actual crypto currency.



• DOYU – $10.50: DouYu International Holdings, Ltd.

  The stock, a Chinese video-game live-streaming platform, debuted two weeks ago and is a direct competitor of HUYA, a stock I currently own.

  Sales have increased from $54.7MM in June 2017 to $221.6MM in March 2019 for an average quarterly gain of 135% (amazing, if accurate). Earnings went positive for the first time in the March 2019 reporting period, at $0.02.

  Similar to WORK, the stock is too new to establish a technical entry point so if you believe in live streaming games & entertainment and the size of the Chinese market, grab shares here and hold for the longer term.

Other interesting young stocks to watch as well:

• PINS
• PAYS
• UBER
• LYFT
• YETI

Previous Stock Trends Lists:

January 1, 2019: Stock to Watch in 2019

January 1, 2018: Stock Trends for 2018

January 2, 2017: Stock Trends for 2017

January 18, 2015: Stock Trends for 2015

My Wife’s Mutual Fund:

Original Post:
August 6, 2014: My Wife’s Personal Mutual Fund Outperforms the Pros

Follow-ups:
February 21, 2016: My Wife’s Personal Mutual Fund Crushes the Markets, AGAIN

August 7, 2016: My Wife’s Buy & Hold Strategy Still Crushing the Professionals

November 19, 2017: The Wife’s Stocks Outperforming 3 Years Later

November 11, 2018: My Wife Picks Stocks better than You

But I have been watching a new crop of lesser known growth names. These stocks may carry with them more risk as their brands, revenue and social status aren’t at the level of the Stock Trends stocks (i.e.: AAPL, AMZN, V, MA) but the growth potential is what excites me.

I suggest caution if buying shares in early 2019, considering the major indices are trading below their 200-day moving averages. Further, the New High – New Low readings are negative right now so until they can regain positive status, further downside risk is possible.

There are several criteria that I am using to identify the list below: increasing sales, increasing earnings, strong relative strength and IPO’s within the past several years. I’m specifically searching for the next crop of young growth companies that can provide above average gains over the next 12-24 months. I am aware that a few of the stocks listed are lacking in the “relative strength” department.

• OKTA – $63.80: Okta, Inc. provides identity solutions for enterprises and other businesses, serving in the security software sector, along with companies such as PANW and CYBR.

  Sales have been increasing QoQ by an average of 62% the past 8 quarters, from $48.8MM to $105.6MM (Jan 2017 – October 2018 periods). The stock is still young, with an IPO on April 7, 2017 yet institutional fund sponsorship has increased more than 55% over that same Jan ’17 to Oct ’18 period.

  Technically, the stock made an all-time high back in September, reaching $75.49, before selling off along with the rest of the market, above its 50d and 200d moving averages. The relative strength rating is currently 98, showing that the shares are holding up better than most of the market. An ideal area to grab shares in anywhere in the $50 range, above the moving averages. I see OKTA as a classic $60 to $100 mover over the next 12 to 24 months.



• TWTR – $28.74: Twitter, Inc. operates as a platform for public self-expression and conversation in real time. The company offers various products and services, including Twitter that allows users to consume, create, distribute, and discover content.

  Sales have been increasing the past three quarters (YoY) by an average of 24.6%, from $664MM to $758MM. The stock debuted on the market on November 7, 2013 and I was a big fan of the stock back then but was far too early as they hadn’t figured out how to make money yet. The company has since figured that out as earnings have increased an average of 117% over the past three quarters while institutional sponsorship has increased 59% over the past 4 quarters.

  Technically, the stock made a 52-week high back in June, reaching $47.79, after spending nearly two years in the teens and $20’s. The relative strength rating is currently 77, which isn’t excellent but not terrible. Historically, TWTR has been volatile with some big swings up and down so I don’t recommend the stock for those with a weak stomach for the unexpected. Shares are currently trading below the 50d and 200d moving averages but holding support in the $26 range. Long term, I see this as a $50+ stock so one may start to initiate a position below $30 and be prepared to hold through some volatile times.



• CGC – $26.87: Canopy Growth Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in growing, possession, and sale of medical cannabis in Canada. Its products include dried flowers, oils and concentrates, softgel capsules, and hemps.

  Sales have increased from $9.8MM in December 2016 to $23.3MM in September 2018, an increase of 137% over 8 quarters. However, earnings are still negative but are poised to become positive in FY 2020. Institutional sponsorship has increased by 157% but the number of holders is still relatively small when compared to most established stocks; to be fair, the stock only debuted on the American market in May 2018 so it will take time before the institutions can accumulate larger positions (I see this as a positive).

  Technically, the stock has been sliding, losing 50% of its value over the past two months, from its all-time high of $59.25. It currently trades below both its 50d and 200d moving averages, not a positive sign. I do believe that CGC will remain one of the faster growing suppliers as states within the US continue to legalize marijuana products. Ideally, I’d like to see a base form over several weeks which would signal a bottom before recommending shares to be purchased. Long term, 12-24+ months, I see this stock having the potential to trade back above the $50 mark.



• TEAM – $88.98: Atlassian Corporation Plc, through its subsidiaries, designs, develops, licenses, and maintains various software products worldwide. It provides project tracking, content creation and sharing, and service management products.

  Software is hot heading into 2019, and subscription-based companies have been tearing it up for years (i.e: NFLX, ADBE, ADSK, AMZN, etc.). The recurring revenue model is genius vs selling a software package out of a box every few years.

  Technically, the stock made an all-time high coming into October at $98.21 but has since corrected, falling as low as $65 in November before recovering back to the upper $80s (approximately 10% off highs). The relative strength rating is a solid 98 and the stock trades above both the 50d and 200d moving averages, something not many stocks can claim these days. My ideal entry is closer to the 50d ma, which currently sits between $77-$78 per share.

  Fundamentals are strong as well, with quarterly earnings averaging 37.5% increases YoY over the past 6 quarters and sales averaging 40% increases YoY during that same period. Sales have gone from $148.9M in the December 2016 quarter to $267.3MM in the latest September quarter. Annual earnings are projected to go from $0.52 in FY 2018 to $0.78 in FY 2019 and $0.97 in FY 2020.



• TWLO – $89.30: Twilio Inc. provides a cloud communications platform that enables developers to build, scale, and operate communications within software applications in the United States and internationally. The company’s programmable communications cloud provides a set of application programming interfaces that enable developers to embed voice, messaging, and video capabilities into their applications.

  With a 99 relative strength rating, TWLO is one of the top performing stocks over the past few months, trading above both its 50d and 200d moving averages. Sales have averaged a 47.9% quarterly growth rate (YoY) over the past seven quarters, with the largest growth period last quarter, at 68%. Sales have grown from $87.4MM in March 2017 to $168.9MM in September 2018. Earnings turned positive in the June 2018 quarter, $0.03, and followed that up with a $0.07 quarter in September 2018 (the previous five quarters were all negative). Institutional holders have increased 146% over the past eight quarters.

  The stock made an all-time high of $100.47 in December but pulled back more than 25% to $73.15 before settling about 11% off highs, just shy of $90. The ideal accumulation zone is either along the 50d ma (currently $82 range) or just above the 200d ma (currently $66 range). I’m not sure if the stock will retreat back to the 200d ma so accumulating shares in the $80s is fine for now.



• SEND – $43.17: SendGrid, Inc. operates as a digital communication platform in the United States and internationally. Its cloud-based platform provides various tools to the businesses, including developers and marketers to reach their customers using an email.

  SendGrid has a 98 relative strength rating for a stock that debuted in November 2017 with a 100%+ move since IPO. The risk with SEND is the fact that it has not had that first correction phase since the IPO, something I prefer to see in a young stock, before a long term sustained run.

  That aside, sales have averaged a 36.5% quarterly growth rate (YoY) over the past seven quarters while actual figures have grown from $24.8MM in March 2017 to $37.2MM in September 2018. Earnings have grown 100%, 400%, 100%, 400% and 150% the past five quarters (YoY), going from $0.01 to $0.05. Projected earnings for the stock are expected to be $0.16 in FY 2018 and $0.21 in FY 2019 (from $0.08 in FY 2017). Institutional holders have increased 135% over the past four quarters. SEND is in the same industry as TEAM.

  Similar to TWLO, SEND is trading about 11% off of its all-time high, which was set back in December at $48.41. The ideal buy is near either of the major moving averages, which are at $39.88 and $32.21 respectively.



• STNE – $18.44: StoneCo Ltd. provides financial technology solutions that empower merchants and integrated partners to conduct electronic commerce across in-store, online, and mobile channels in Brazil.

  I’ve been a big fan and holder of financial solutions and credit companies for years (i.e.: Visa, Mastercard, Square) so naturally, STNE grabs my attention. Sales have increased an average of 91% per quarter (QoQ) over the past seven quarters (moving from $52.4MM to $103.7MM), while earnings are up 200%, 600% and 700% the past three quarters respectively.

  The stock is new to the market, IPO date of 10/25/18, which carries with it some risk as there’s no history of action. The stock is down 45% from its 52-week high which took place IPO week but the fall has happened as the market folded. I am basing this selection off of its future potential where yearly earnings are projected to go from $0.05 in FY 2017 to $0.32 in FY 2018 and $0.80 in FY 2019.



• NIO – $6.37: NIO Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles in the People’s Republic of China, the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom. NIO is a competitor of TSLA, a stock that I have highlighted on Stock Trend lists for years. I went with NIO this year because I have grown somewhat suspect of the financials over at Tesla. Perhaps there’s nothing there but my gut seems to think otherwise, we’ll see (I do not own shares in TSLA as of this writing). With that said, it’s tough to show confidence in Chinese based companies as their financials are often suspect as well.

  As of now, I own call options in NIO which expire in February 2019 but I do not own straight shares. Why, because I don’t have enough technical and fundamental data to base my decisions on, other than pure speculation that NIO will be a player in the exploding global electric vehicle market. Consider that the Chinese population is 4.3x the size of the US, that’s what gets me interested in this company.

  Per Forbes, Chinese demand for EVs is expected to eclipse 1 million units in 2018, about half the world’s total. That number will go to 5 million by 2025, propelled by government quotas and incentives. The ES8 starts at $67,000 which is about half the cost of an imported Tesla Model X (after tariffs). So where do we buy? Here, based on pure speculation over the next several years. If the company has substance, I can see shares pushing towards $20 in the distant future or 3x from the 2018 close.



• IMMU – $14.27: Immunomedics, Inc. is a bio-pharma company that focuses on the development of products to treat cancer, autoimmune disorders and other diseases. The company has been focusing on commercializing sacituzumab govitecan as a third-line therapy for patients with metastatic triple-negative breast cancer with an FDA decision due by January 19th.

  The play is a risk, pending FDA approval. The stock made a 52-week high back in July at $27.33 but has been beaten down recently due to some faulty information that was submitted to the FDA. I do have concerns based on this news and a recent class-action lawsuit filed due to the untimely non-disclosure of this information. I am currently a shareholder, dating back to December 2017 and plan to hold through the FDA decision. Provided the company gets approval, I plan to hold long term unless circumstances change. Without approval, the stock is likely done (I will sell immediately). With approval, I expect their drug to bring in strong sales thus boosting earnings QoQ and YoY for quite some time.

  Institutional sponsorship has increased 44% over the past four quarters and 155% over the past eight quarters, which makes sense as the stock moved from a low of $2.02 to a high above $27 (1,200%+ move). Using pure technicals, there is not a signal to buy shares now, rather it’s all based on FDA speculation.



• BJ – $22.16: BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. operates as a warehouse club on the East Coast of the United States. It offers perishable, edible grocery, general merchandise, and non-edible grocery products. I am familiar with BJs and Costco living in NY and NJ as they are similar stores but I am only a member of COST (I do think it’s better).

  The stock IPO’d on June 28, 2018, hoping to follow in the footsteps of Costco which has been a great stock over the past 10 years. I can see BJ’s shares doubling, from current levels, over the long term but they need to increase sale’s growth and locations. Costco, a much larger company, has been growing sales more quickly, by an average of 11% QoQ over the past 6 quarters while BJ’s has only been growing sales by 4.3% over that same period. On the flip side, Costco earnings have grown by an average of 18% while BJ’s has grown by 145% over that same period. As of last quarter, 2,137 intuitional holders had positions in COST while only 249 holders had shares in BJs. BJs has room to grow if they can execute properly.

Honorable Mentions:

• ALRM – $51.87: same industry as TEAM and SEND
• COUP – $62.86: same industry as TWLO
• TTD – $116.06
• PAYC – $122.45: same industry as TWLO

Previous Stocks Trends Lists:

January 1, 2018: Stock Trends for 2018

January 2, 2017: Stock Trends for 2017

January 18, 2015: Stock Trends for 2015

My Wife’s Mutual Fund:

Original Post:
August 6, 2014: My Wife’s Personal Mutual Fund Outperforms the Pros

Follow-ups:
February 21, 2016: My Wife’s Personal Mutual Fund Crushes the Markets, AGAIN

August 7, 2016: My Wife’s Buy & Hold Strategy Still Crushing the Professionals

November 19, 2017: The Wife’s Stocks Outperforming 3 Years Later

November 11, 2018: My Wife Picks Stocks better than You

On August 5, 2014, I put a collection of stocks together that represent the products and services of companies used most often by not only my wife but our family as a whole. I called it “My Wife’s Mutual Fund” and decided to treat it as a personal ETF or mutual fund that we would just hold over time.

Original Post:
August 6, 2014: My Wife’s Personal Mutual Fund Outperforms the Pros

Follow-ups:
February 21, 2016: My Wife’s Personal Mutual Fund Crushes the Markets, AGAIN

August 7, 2016: My Wife’s Buy & Hold Strategy Still Crushing the Professionals

November 19, 2017: The Wife’s Stocks Outperforming 3 Years Later

Every one of these companies are a household name selling a product or service that we all use, so naturally, they will grow as a group.

As of November 11, 2018, the 22 stocks have performed as follows (for purposes of the exercise, no trades have been made):

• Total gain of 108.26% (adjusted for dividends & splits)
• 20 of the 22 stocks show a gain
• 20 of the 22 stocks show a double digit gain
• 13 of the 22 stocks show a gain of at least 50%
• 8 of the 22 stocks show a gain greater than 100%
• The leading gainer, also the 2nd highest initial priced stock, is up 448%: Amazon $AMZN
• 2 stocks show a loss: $XOM and $KORS
• A 91% success ratio

As a comparison, the return from the Nasdaq trails by 35%, the DJIA trails by 46% and the S&P 500 trails by 58.5%. In dollar terms, $5,000 invested per stock in the portfolio (or $110,000) would currently sit at $229,088 for a pre-tax profit of $119,088. Alternatively, $110,000 placed in the Nasdaq would result in a pretax profit of $77,178, $64,005 for the DJIA and $49,311 for the S&P 500.

What started as a playful review, became a serious pursuit of stocks that we decided to grab shares in. We don’t own every stock on the list but we do own and have owned many over the years.

I agree with my sentiment from last year, now nine years into a run from the bottom:

I’m not surprised to see, after years and years of gains (pre-2014), that these stocks continue to outperform the general market indexes. At this point in 2017, I believe that many of these stocks will continue to outperform in the years to come (and I’m making this statement deep into a multi-year up-trend).

Many folks and gurus on social media try to get fancy and make predictions to actively buy and sell the next great thing. Perhaps that works (not likely) so why not just accumulate shares in the best companies with the most useful products and services and call it a day. Predictions are fun and subscriptions must be sold so fintwit activity is needed but I bet this buy & hold portfolio has beaten the results of most strategies. And the best part, it’s free.

Howard Lindzon (@howardlindzon or howardlindzon.com) has a very similar list titled 8 for 80 which shares several of the names listed here. What he says about his list rings true for any list:

“No index or list is perfect…and mine will keep evolving. The secret sauce over time is not so much the list itself, but the ability to adjust, allocate and manage risk as you go.”

At the end of the August 2016 update, I suggested changing $KORS (an underperformer) for $MSFT. For purposes of the blog thread, we didn’t change a thing but that one adjustment would have resulted in a 98% gain for MSFT vs the 5% additional loss for KORS. To Howards’s point…”adjust”.

The portfolio of 22 stocks:
$AAPL – Apple
$SBUX – Starbucks
$GOOGL – Alphabet
$AMZN – Amazon
$FB – Facebook
$COST – Costco
$TGT – Target
$TPR – Tapestry (formerly Coach, COH)
$KORS – Michael Kors
$CVS – CVS Health Corp
$NFLX – Netflix
$DIS – Walt Disney Co
$JNJ – Johnson & Johnson
$PG – Procter & Gamble
$V – Visa
$MA – MasterCard
$PEP – Pepsico
$TJX – TJX Companies
$HD – Home Depot
$VZ – Verizon
$XOM – Exxon Mobil
$WFC – Wells Fargo

When reviewing the 2007-2008 market top, it’s clear to see that the setup took six full months. Even then, the market bounced around for another four months but it was clear that the trend had changed, as the 200 day moving average had already started to trend downward and switched to resistance rather than the previous support it provided.

Looking at the DJIA, we can identify six progressions over the course of six months

1. The index made a new high in July 2007
2. It challenged the 200d ma in August, only to capture support
3. Another new high was made (above the July high) in October 2007
4. By November, the index broke below the 200d ma – NOTE: the 200d ma was still trending higher at this time
5. The DOW then recovered the 200d ma but failed to recover new highs, a red flag in December
6. By the end of the month, the DOW broke back below the 200d ma on above average volume, a clear sign that this market was headed for a correction
7. The market made a final attempt to recover the 200d ma in April and May of 2008 but failed again, but much lower than the summer highs of 2007. If one hadn’t sold yet, this was another clear red flag to protect profits and move to the sideline (the market dropped another 50% from here).

A similar setup and duration took place with the Nasdaq market top in 2000.

Looking at the COMPQ, we can identify eight progressions over the course of six months

1. The index made a new high in March 2000
2. It challenged the 200d ma in early April, capturing temporary support
3. The index tried to recover the 200d ma throughout April but that was short lived
4. By May, the index broke back below the 200d ma – NOTE: the 200d ma was still trending higher at this time
5. Tow months later, in July 2000, the COMPQ was working its way high, above the up-trending 200d ma but was still 17% off of it’s all-time highs, a lack of strength (market churn).
6. By late July, the index closed below the 200d ma
7. The COMPQ recovered the 200d ma for the third time in August but once again failed to trade above the previous high in July and nearly 20% below the all-time high set back in March.
8. Lastly, the COMPQ dropped back below the 200d ma in September 2000, as the long term moving average started to trend downward, the first time in years.

By studying the major corrections of the past, a patient investor should be equipped to analyze the necessary and relevant data, recognize if a correction is normal or spot the technical red flags that will confirm a change in trend (i.e.: major correction).

A long-term investor must accept that they will NOT get out at the top but remain confident that they can avoid the bulk of the downturn. By studying the 2000 and 2007 markets, a long-term investor should be able to sell within 20% of the market top and well before the ensuing additional drop (which was greater than 50% in 2000 and 2008).

NOTE: The New High – New Low Ratio is another key indicator that substantiates the move, one way or another, but I will leave that specific analysis for another post. As it stands today, the NH-NL 10-d Diff is still positive.

As for the 2018 market, if anyone wanted a lesson in market psychology, it was on real time display as the calendar turned to February. The main stream media and scores of people on fintwit stared to freak out as the market started to sell off with 1,000 pt drops (less than 5% drops).

I posted this chart to Twitter & Stocktwits on February 5, 2018, which highlighted the previous drawdowns for the DJIA over the prior two years. I posted it to show that the 200d ma was still trending higher and that investors should welcome a normal correction, in-line with the previous 8%-19% drawdowns.

Further, the percentage of stocks trading above the 50-d ma started to drop rapidly, signaling a short term oversold signal, as this chart showed, posted on February 11, 2018.

I’m not ready to call a market top or change in long term trend but I am watching. What I have learned is that a market top or change in trend will likely take some time with several back-and-forth struggles between buyers and sellers.

Until the market confirms (continuation of the up-trend or a change in trend), hold tight with the stocks in your portfolio that are performing well. Specifically, hold the stocks that are trading near new highs and/or have strong relative strength ratings.

As for the stocks that start to fail, below their respective 200-d ma’s, considering selling a portion or all of that position.

The last chart shows possible progressions, not that it will follow the exact points that I have created here but look for something similar and WATCH the 200d ma.

Let’s see what this market wants to do.
$DJIA $COMPQ $SPX

“Perhaps this list is old and boring (Buffett likes boring) but we’re here to make money, not be sexy.”

So, let’s get into the mind of Buffet, which will explain why I am going to “let it ride” for now…

“There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult.”

“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”

“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price.”

Many of the stocks that I profiled in 2017, were the same old stocks that I profiled in 2016 and 2015. Following the trend has worked well so why should I try to get fancy, chasing a few percentage points here and there while increasing my risk? The 2017 portfolio returned nearly 42% and the basis of the setup didn’t include any sophisticated buy and sell rules. It was a simple buy and hold strategy. I’ll take 42% any year, hands down!

The current market run from the bottom in March 2009 will reach nine full years in 60 days. It has been an amazing run with amazing stats along the way. At some point, the trend will end. Unfortunately, no one knows if that will happen tomorrow, sometime in 2018 or at some point beyond 2018.

Take a look at these amazing S&P 500 stats:

• The S&P 500 has had nine consecutive positive return years, tying the all-time record from 1991-1999 (we all know what happened in 2000).
• Every month was positive for the S&P 500 in 2017, setting an all-time record, the first time that has ever happened in the history of the index.
• In fact, the S&P 500 has been positive for 14 consecutive months, another all-time record.
• The S&P 500 has been positive 14 of the last 15 years with only 2008 showing a loss.
• The S&P 500 went 17 out of 18 years from 1982 to 1999, so perhaps there’s still room to run.

On the surface, the S&P 500 stats referenced sound like the end could be near but the famous quote:

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”

keeps me from trying to guess. The “easy” thing to do is to continue playing until the market tells us otherwise. No one is smarter than the market and it will give signals when it’s over.

So, before I get into this year’s list, I once again suggest that 99% of all investors stick with low cost index funds and skip individual stocks altogether. Individual stocks are funny and carry too much risk for the casual investor.

*NOTE: the overall health of the markets must be positive for many these investments to do well.

Digital Currency & Blockchain:
Digital Currency has been on my list for several years and has worked well. I mentioned “blockchain and bitcoin” both in 2015 and 2017 but decided to ignore them as far as investments. Too bad for me as 2017 was the year of cryptocurrency.

Blockchain started to go mainstream in 2017 and I believe the mania will continue in 2018. The challenge with crypto currencies (coins, alt coins, tokens, etc.) is that 99% of the ones available today will not be here in the future, they are garbage or outright scams. Some may survive and new ones will be created but I suspect the leaders of these decentralized cryptos will start to emerge by the end of 2018. I am far from an expert on cryptos so please search elsewhere for advice on how and where to invest. The hope for crypto (and blockchain) is that the “technology” eventually supersedes the speculation and the intended benefits will be realized. (Disclaimer: as of this blog post, I own Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin).

For a more traditional stock approach, these are the companies that I believe will continue to provide value and further upside through their stock shares:

• V: 114.02. I continue to ride and hold Visa personally as it remains the world’s largest retail electronic payments network and is one of the most recognized global financial services brands. The stock returned 47% in 2017 and has been in an up-trend, above its 50-day moving average since last January. The stock provided a much better entry in January 2017, from a technical standpoint, but I am including again this year. As I said last year: “as a long-term shareholder, I’m holding, until it proves otherwise.”
• MA: 151.36. Like Visa, MasterCard was also up over 47% in 2017 and has been riding its 50d ma since August 2016. The stock is currently trading sideways over the past several weeks, forming a base along the 50-d ma. My ideal buys are closer to the 200d ma but I will include Mastercard until it breaks down. Be careful buying any stock when extended.
• SQ: 34.67. Square, Inc. was the one that got away last year. I went with PayPal (stocked up on $PYPL shares personally and it paid off with an 86% gain, I still own 50% of my original position). Personally, I still like PayPal (the company) but feel that the stock is extended so I am not including this year. I am going to take a chance on Square, a stock that went from $13 per share to as high as $49 per share in 2017. The stock has pulled back over the past five weeks, violating the 50d ma on heavy volume so we have to keep an eye on that (red flag). An ideal area to grab shares would be at or near the 200d ma, as long as it holds support. A violation of the 200d ma would be a big red flag. With all that said, I am going to take a chance on SQ. It carries with it some risk so be careful if you decide to grab shares.

Major Technology Brands:
I am sticking with the FAANG stocks because I believe they will remain leaders, until they’re not. Social media is an addiction and as long as people plaster their faces to phones and computer screens, the money will continue to pour in. I’ve detailed in the past why I like these tech titans so no need to repeat it here again this year. Bottom line, just about everyone uses the products and services of these companies (every day) so I am sticking with what we all know.

• FB: 176.46. Facebook returned 53% last year and has been a solid performer for several years now. The attraction of this stock is still the data collection and advertising revenues that come from this information. Other than Google, Facebook is the second largest digital advertising revenue generating company in the world. The stock was correcting at the end of 2016 but caught support at the moving averages and catapulted from $115 to as high as $184 in November. The stock is currently trading sideways and is struggling to make a new high. It crossed below its 50d ma and may revisit the 200d ma (currently near $163). This would be an ideal entry area, should it drop this low and hold support. It may need a breather but I still like the stock long term.
• BABA: 172.43. Alibaba was the top performing stock in the portfolio last year, returning 96%, while peaking at 118% in November. One can make the argument that BABA is the Chinese version of Amazon and Google wrapped into one. The stock is currently pulling back, below the 50d ma with some support near $170. The 200d ma is down near $154 so there is a chance it could drop further. The consolidation is welcomed after the big run-up in 2017. An ideal area to grab shares is above the moving averages. There’s risk to enter at the current price but I’m holding BABA for long term potential. Please keep in mind that the company operates out of China so the communist government of China is always a wildcard for unanticipated news.
• AMZN: $1,169.47. Amazon has been a leader in these yearly portfolios for years. Going back to 2015, the stock was trading in the upper $200 range, so it’s a 4x gain in 3 years. Last January, I mentioned that the stock was “consolidating near it’s 200d ma and if it holds, could be poised for the next leg higher ($750 to $1,000?).”. Well, it blew past $1,000 and gave shareholders a 56% gain. As of now, it’s not far from an all-time high and trading above both major moving averages. I prefer to grab shares at or near a major moving average (ideal area is $1,000). For now, Amazon is still a dominant player so we’re keeping it on the list, even at +$1,100.
• GOOGL: 1,053.40. Considering Alphabet does so much, digital advertising, wallet, pay, self-driving cars, etc., it’s a must on this list. Like Amazon, it’s trading above $1,000 per share and it is not far from a new all-time high, above both major moving averages. Alphabet has always provided buying opportunities at or near its 200d ma, which is currently down near $970. I would advise grabbing shares closer to that level but I like the stock long term (we must live with the volatility).
• AAPL: 169.23. Apple got back on its horse in 2017 and gave investors a 48% gain. The stock ran into some trouble to close 2017, dropping below its 50d ma but still remains well above the 200d ma (near $155). They always say “cash is king” so if that’s the case, Apple takes the cake with more than $200 billion of it. On the other hand, what does one do with so much cash? I’d tell them to buy Square, among other things. It’s Apple, so I like the stock long term until they screw something up [I’m still an Android guy].
• NFLX: 191.96. Netflix had another big year, returning investors 55% in 2017. The stock traded fairly close to its 50d ma most of the year but is currently under that line. The 200d ma is down near $173 and would be a better risk/return area to grab shares. In any event, keep an eye on the 50d ma, to make sure it doesn’t continue its direction downward. Netflix remains a staple in our house, from the kids, to my wife to me so I like it long term.
• TSLA: 311.35. Tesla makes the list due to the fact that some of its technology is cutting edge and some of its products are viewed similar to that of an Apple product, cult like. I’m a fan of Elon Musk, even though he’s volatile along with his stock. An investor needs a strong stomach to hold a position in this stock but long term, I believe it will outperform. Patience is key with Tesla.
• NVDA: 193.50. When I first profiled NVIDIA Corporation in the Stock Trends for 2015, it was trading at $19.96. Well, the stock has returned 10x over the past three years. One may argue that the stock is exhausted and doesn’t have any gas left in the tank. Perhaps, but I was told the same thing last year when I placed NVDA on the list at $106.33. It went on to gain another 82% and peaked above $218 per share. The stock has pulled back recently, trading below the 50d ma but still traded above the 200d ma. It’s been basing the past 4 weeks and may do so for a while longer which could provide an opportunity to add shares. The stock has been trending higher for 3 years and I’m not convinced its done until it says otherwise. Let’s keep riding it until the trend ends.
• SNAP: 14.61. Snapchat is the riskiest selection within this tech group. FB and Instagram are more mature within a profitable business model but there’s always room for two. After spending time with family and friends over the holidays, I realized how much the 10yr old to 25yr old generation uses this platform. I have never used the app myself and it doesn’t reside on my phone but something in my gut says it’s a buy in 2018. As a discretionary investor, let’s put some money behind that gut feel and see what happens. If it fails, I’ll sell and protect capital from a larger loss. In the case of this mock portfolio, we’re going to hold it for the year. I’m uncomfortable with the fact that they are not profitable yet but tech companies can get away with that while they establish their user base and products/services.

Wild Card Stocks:
Because the first twelve stocks on this list are mostly repetitive (with the exception of SQ & SNAP), I’ve decided to throw in a couple of wild cards. I removed the cyber security stocks as they have under-performed over the past two years. I will not be including metals, banks or oil/gas based stocks (although the oil/gas based stocks look poised to perform well in 2018). The wild cards will consist of a clinical stage bio-pharma stock and a marijuana based stock. Both stocks have had considerable growth over the past year but if these yearly stock trend portfolios have proven anything, it is that an object in motion continues in motion…

• IMMU: 16.16. Immunomedics, Inc. is a bio-pharma company that focuses on the development of products to treat cancer, autoimmune disorders and other diseases. The company has several treatments in stage 2 and stage 3 trials, with initial data looking favorable. The company is small, not profitable and relatively unknown but is poised to grow and become profitable, should a treatment or two get approval from the FDA. Disclaimer: I grabbed shares under $10 and I am looking to add to the position. As on now, the stock has jumped more than 50% over the past month so I’d like to gauge the action heading into the New Year. It’s extended from both the 50d and 200d moving averages. Any hold of support on the $14 range would be an ideal location to grab shares.
• WEED.CA: 29.74. Canopy Growth Corp. produces and sells medical marijuana in Canada. The company offers dried, oil, and softgel cannabis products and also sells its products online. The stock has exploded in price recently due to the anticipated legalization of recreational marijuana in Canada in July 2018. California legalized recreational marijuana today (1/1/18) so the momentum train has left the station. Eight states currently allow recreational marijuana in the USA but I believe this figure will double over the next couple of years. If that’s the case, this stock and others should be setup for strong growth. Specifically, the stock is extended after breakouting out above $21 just before the New Year. Let it digest and form a new base before blindly buying shares.

If the list above doesn’t quench the thirst, I have another 22 stocks over at this thread, many of which are also outperforming the market: My Wife’s Stocks Outperforming 3 Years Later

The Wife’s Stocks Outperforming 3 Years Later

Repeating wisdom from Peter Lynch:

“The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.”

“All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out.”

Wishing you all continued success in 2018!

$V $MA $SQ $FB $BABA $AMZN $GOOGL $AAPL $NFLX $SNAP $TSLA $NVDA $IMMU $WEED.CA

Final 2017 Results:

• Stock Trends for 2017: +41.85%
• Nasdaq Composite: +28.24%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +25.08%
• S&P 500 Large Cap Index: +19.42%

Final Results Fun Facts:

• 20 of the 21 stocks show a gain for a 95% win ratio
• 18 of the 21 stocks show a double digit gain or 86% of the stocks
• 14 of the 21 stocks outperformed the three main US indexes
• 8 of the 21 stocks gained more than 50% for an average of +69.23%
• 6 of the top 10 gainers started as triple digit stocks (7 ended that way)
• The top 10 performers had an average gain of +65.00%
• The average gain of the positive stocks is +44.39%
• The average gain of the positive stocks, with double digit gains is +49.16%
• BABA was the top performing stock, with a gain of +96.37%
• BABA peaked at $191.75 (52-week high), which gave the stock a +118% gain at the time

As 2017 ends, I maintain a bullish outlook on many of these names, heading into 2018 and beyond.

**Note: Adjusted close price adjusted for both dividends and splits.

Stock Trends for 2017 Portfolio:
$AAPL $AMZN $BABA $BCS $CYBR $FB $GOOGL $HACK $INTC $MA $MBLY $MIME $NFLX $NVDA $PANW $PYPL $TSLA $USO $V $VNTV $XME