Cincinnati Real Estate and Financial Market updates

September 2014 housing trends

2014-09-30T17:30:00.001-04:00

If you absolutely, positively want to position yourself to be successful in today's market!

http://cincinnatihometeam.housingtrendsenewsletter.com/

Existing-Home Sales Slightly Lose Momentum in August as Investor Activity Declines

WASHINGTON (September 22, 2014) – After four consecutive months of gains, existing-home sales slipped in August as investors paying in cash retreated from the market, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales increases in the Northeast and Midwest were outweighed by declines in the South and West.

Existing Home Sales Show Improvement In The Northeast And Midwest Region

2014-04-24T11:00:00.000-04:00

If you absolutely, positively want to position yourself to be successful in today's market!

March sales of existing homes exceeded expectations at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.59 million sales according to the NAR. Analysts projected that existing home sales would reach 4.55 million based on February’s reading of 4.50 million sales.

The pace of existing home sales declined by 0.20 percent as compared to February’s reading.

Headwinds Cause Slower Pace Of Home Sales

Analysts cited poor winter weather and rapidly rising home prices as factors that kept buyers away, although the Northeast and Midwest regions reported improvements in home sales in March. NAR said that the national average home price increased to $198,500, which was a year-over-year increase of 7.90 percent.

New mortgage regulations, which have caused mortgage lenders to take a conservative position with their lending policies, are also seen as a discouragement to buyers with less-than-perfect credit, first-time and moderate income home buyers.

Experts expressed concerns that current home prices and tight lending standards could create a shortage of first-time buyers.

Home sales to investors have fallen as higher home prices and fewer distressed (foreclosure and short sale) properties cause deals on cheap homes to dry up.

Fannie And Freddie Revise Construction, Housing Market Forecasts

Fannie Mae reduced its forecast for home construction started in 2014 from 1.55 million to 1.05 million. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, said that constraints on credit and labor contributed to the revised forecast.

Freddie Mac reduced its forecast of homes sold in 2014 from 5.60 million to 5.50 million. Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said that tight inventories of homes in some areas could cause significant challenges for home buyers.

FHFA Home Price Index Posts March Gain

FHFA, the agency that oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported that February home prices related to mortgages that Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee, gained 0.60 percent as compared to a revised January reading of a 0.40 percent gain.

Year-over-year, home prices rose by 6.90 percent as compared to January’s year over year reading of 7.20 percent.

Analysts said that smaller month-to-month dips in home prices could indicate a turnaround for lagging housing markets and also noted that sales lost during severe winter weather may be recouped as the spring buying season gains momentum.

THE FIVE BIGGEST TURN-OFFS FOR HOMEBUYERS

2014-04-04T07:39:00.000-04:00

If you absolutely, positively want to position yourself to be successful in today's market!

A lot of sellers don't listen to their real estate agents, so we'll tell you what your agent wants to say, but can't say to you and this is it - your agent can't get you the price you want unless your home is in pristine move-in condition.

That means no sticking drawers in the kitchen. No leaning fences. No rust-stained plumbing fixtures. We could go on, but maybe we need to make it clear. If you have even one of following "turn-offs," your home won't sell.

Buyers can get instantly turned off. Here are their five biggest turn-offs:

1. Overpricing for the market

2. Smells

3. Clutter

4. Deferred maintenance

5. Dark, dated décor

Overpricing your home

Overpricing your home is like trying to crash the country club without a membership. You'll be found out and escorted out.

If you ignored your agent's advice and listed at a higher price than recommended, you're going to get some negative feedback from buyers. The worst feedback, of course, is silence. That could include no showings and no offers.

The problem with overpricing your home is that the buyers who are qualified to buy your home won't see it because they're shopping in a lower price range. The buyers who do it will quickly realize that there are other homes in the same price range that offer more value.

Smells

Smells can come from a number of sources - pets, lack of cleanliness, stale air, water damage, and much more. You may not even notice it, but your real estate agent may have hinted to you that something needs to be done.

There's not a buyer in the world that will buy a home that smells unless they're investors looking for a bargain. Even so, they'll get a forensic inspection to find out the source of the smells. If they find anything like undisclosed water damage, or pet urine under the "new" carpet, then they will either severely discount their offer or walk away.

Clutter

If your tables are full to the edges with photos, figurines, mail, and drinking glasses, buyers' attention is going to more focused on running the gauntlet of your living room without breaking any Hummels than in considering your home for purchase.

Too much furniture confuses the eye - it makes it really difficult for buyers to see the proportions of rooms. If they can't see what they need to know, they move on to the next home.

Deferred maintenance

Deferred maintenance is a polite euphemism for letting your home fall apart. Just like people age due to the effects of the sun, wind and gravity, so do structures like your home. Things wear out, break and weather, and it's your job as a homeowner to keep your home repaired.

Your buyers really want a home that's been well-maintained. They don't want to wonder what needs to fixed next or how much it will cost.

Dated décor

The reason people are looking at your home instead of buying brand new is because of cost and location. They want your neighborhood, but that doesn't mean they want a dated-looking home. Just like they want a home in good repair, they want a home that looks updated, even if it's from a different era.

Harvest gold and avocado green from the seventies; soft blues and mauves from the eighties, jewel tones from the nineties, and onyx and pewter from the oughts are all colorways that can date your home. Textures like popcorn ceilings, shag or berber carpet, and flocked wallpaper can also date your home.

When you're behind the times, buyers don't want to join you. They want to be perceived as savvy and cool.

In conclusion, the market is a brutal mirror. if you're guilty of not putting money into your home because you believe it's an investment that others should pay you to profit, you're in for a rude awakening. You'll be stuck with an asset that isn't selling.

2014-03-31T17:27:00.000-04:00

If you absolutely, positively want to position yourself to be successful in today's market!

Download the RE/MAX Mobile App

RE/MAX is please to announce our latest mobile applications for iPhone, iPad, and Android phones. One of the main features of the 2.0 release will provide a way for our agents to brand the app to them for their clients. This will display your virtual business card while searching and within listings. All communications from the client will go directly to you.

For clients to brand the app to you have follow these simple steps below.

Find and record your Associate ID located below. This will be your “Agent Key”.
Have your clients download the app from Apple or Google by searching for REMAX.
When they open the app, select the menu and find field to enter your agent Key at the bottom of the list.
Provide your eight digit number to your client so they can enter it into their app.
You have now branded this client’s app to you.
Repeat this process with each of your new clients to brand you to them.

Your Associate ID is 07648402

Get RE/MAX on your iPhone or iPad

Requirements: Compatible with iPhone, iPod touch, and iPad. Requires iOS 4.3 or later.

Get RE/MAX on your Android

Requirements: Android 2.2 and up.

2012-08-06T17:12:00.002-04:00

If you absolutely, positively want to position yourself to be successful in today's market!

QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "Facts are stubborn things." --Ronald Reagan, 40th President of the United States
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Last week, the Fed had to admit the stubborn fact that there are "further signs of improvement" in the housing sector,even while they acknowledged that the economy has "decelerated somewhat over the first half of this year." A major website for real estate information reported that the home-vacancy rate is falling in some of the U.S. cities that were hit hardest by the housing crisis, a sign the market is recovering. Their Chief Economist said, "The biggest vacancy declines are in markets where prices are rising."

Want more stubborn facts that paint a picture of housing market recovery? The May S&P/Case-Shiller home price index showed home prices UP for the third month in a row in the 20 largest metro areas they track. A spokesperson called the annual changes registered in most of the markets "the best we've seen in at least 18 months." One final fact. In June, data for existing-home sales, new-home sales and housing starts were all better than their year-ago levels.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Kick-start your new business effort by digging through old e-mails. Look for contacts you forgot you had and old press releases about businesses you're interested in.

>> Review of Last Week

JOBS WORK FOR WALL STREET... A strange week for investors, who spent four days in a bad mood, then Friday had their best session in more than a month to see the Dow gain for the fourth week in a row. The good vibes came after July nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, coming in at 163,000, the best number in about five months,although far fewer jobs than experts say we need for a sustained recovery. Normally persnickety Wall Streeters chose to ignore the creep up to an 8.3% unemployment rate. Traders even felt good about the Eurozone, although the European Central Bank met Thursday and essentially did nothing.

Our central bank, the beleaguered Fed, also had a meeting and did nothing -- no adding to the money supply (quantitative easing) to try and kick up the economy. This disappointed most investors and some economists. Core PCE Prices came in well within Fed inflation guidelines and Personal Income was also up a tick. ISM Manufacturing was still showing contraction (below 50), yet the week ended withISM Services reporting slow expansion in the non-manufacturing sector, which provides well over 80% of our jobs. That's a good thing.
For the week, the Dow ended UP 0.2%, to 13096; the S&P 500 was UP 0.4%, to 1391; and the Nasdaq was UP 0.3%, to 2968.

Bonds gained following the European Central Bank's inaction, then headed south Friday as investors returned to stocks, inspired by that jobs report. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week up .03, at $105.26. After hitting record lows the prior week, national average mortgage rates were up slightly, but still well below rates of a year ago. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported refinancing applications at their highest level in more than three years, but purchase loan applications were off slightly.

DID YOU KNOW?... Continuing Unemployment Claims represents far less than the total unemployed, excluding workers who've exhausted their benefits or who weren't eligible in the first place. In 2008, only 36% of unemployed workers received benefits.

>> This Week’s Forecast

PRODUCTIVITY, EXPORTS, THE DEFICIT... Following last week's monthly jobs melodrama, we look forward to a calmer flow of economic data in the coming five days. Preliminary Q2 Productivity is predicted to be UP 1.5%. This of course means that people are working harder, which is no surprise to those of us who to have jobs.

The July Federal Deficit is expected to remain in sadly elevated territory, no surprise there either. The June Trade Balance should show we buy almost $50 billion more from other countries than they buy from us.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Aug 6 – Aug 10

Market Update-Cincinnati Home team

2012-07-30T13:37:00.000-04:00

If you absolutely, positively want to position yourself to be successful in today's market!

QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "Sometimes life hits you in the head with a brick. Don't lose faith." --Steve Jobs, American businessman, designer and inventor
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Last week's housing reports weren't quite the head shot Apple's co-founder referred to, but they still required us to keep the faith. June New Home Sales were down 8.4%, coming in at a 350,000 annual rate. But the trend of a gradual recovery is still there, with new home sales UP 15.1% versus a year ago. The new home median price is down 3.2% versus a year ago, yet the average price is UP 0.3% and the inventory of completed new homes is at the lowest level on record, a 4.9 month supply.

Thursday we got the news that Pending Home Sales for June dipped 1.4%, but the number was still UP 9.5% from a year ago, making 14 months in a row of year-over-year gains. This measure of existing homes under contract could foretell a small glitch in sales a few months out. The FHFA index of prices for homes financed with conforming mortgages gained 0.8% in May and is 3.7% ahead of a year ago. This home price index is up at a 13.3% annual rate the last three months, its fastest three-month pace in twenty years!

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Capitalize on your downtime. While waiting for a meeting or standing in a checkout line, Tweet, work on a new marketing idea or think of some new prospects to target.

>> Review of Last Week

EUROPEANS SEND DOW UP OVER 13,000... Last Wednesday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the ECB would do "whatever it takes to preserve the euro." The next day he revealed he's considering bond buying, a rate cut and a new LTRO (Long-Term Refinancing Operation) to shore up banks holding sovereign debt as collateral. With the Eurozone financial system getting this kind of support, investors celebrated by going on a buying spree in the equity markets. The Dow shot back up over 13,000, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also scored healthy gains.

Health was not the economic theme, as the first estimate of Q2 GDP growth came in at a tepid 1.5% rate, down from Q1's 1.9% rate. This had observers wondering if the Fed would step in this week with a new round of quantitative easing -- anattempt to stimulate the economy with an injection of money. Most think the Fed will wait until after Friday's jobs report. Help of some kind is clearly needed, as 60% of the firms reporting Q2 earnings missed top line expectations. In other words, sales are down for lots of folks. The housing market seems to have stabilized, but a slowing economy won't help.
For the week, the Dow ended UP 2.0%, to 13076; the S&P 500 was also UP 1.7%, to1386; and the Nasdaq climbed 1.1%, to 2958.

All the good news from Europe was bad news for bonds. Treasuries ended the week under pressure as investors moved back into riskier stocks. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down .82, at $105.23. Freddie Mac's weekly survey reported another dip in average U.S. mortgage rates. Some economists expect mortgage demand to be stronger in this continuing ultra-low rate environment.

DID YOU KNOW?... Treasuries, or T-Bills, are negotiable debt obligations issued and backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. They have a maturity of a year or less and are exempt from state and local taxes.

>> This Week’s Forecast

WATCHING THE FED, LOOKING FOR JOBS... Plenty of economic points to ponder this week, but they all pale next to the Fed's FOMC Rate Decision and Friday's July Employment Report. No one sees the rate rising, but some think the central bank may announce more quantitative easing. Job creation is expected to remain weak, with the unemployment rate holding at its unacceptably high level.

In other items of interest, Personal Income is forecast up a bit and Core PCE Pricesunder control. ISM Manufacturing should show contraction overall, since the sector has slowed, although the Chicago PMI is expected to expand slightly.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Market Update

2012-07-23T16:14:00.000-04:00

If you absolutely, positively want to position yourself to be successful in today's market!

QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "Never, never, never give up." --Winston Churchill
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... The famed British statesman's advice certainly applies to the housing market. Indeed, those who haven't given up are starting to see positive signs. Wednesday, June Housing Starts were UP 6.9% for the month, UP 23.4% compared to a year ago and at their highest annual rate since October 2008.The total number of homes under construction (started but not finished) gained for the tenth month in a row, the first time that's happened since 2003-2004. No wonder Home Builder Confidence had its biggest monthly jump in almost 10 years.

Thursday, Existing Home Sales were off 5.4% for June, but they're still UP 4.5% compared to a year ago. The median price of an existing home, at $189,400, is UP 7.9% over a year ago, the largest annual gain since 2006. Average existing home prices are UP 6.9% versus last year, inventory is down 24.4% from a year ago and the supply of existing homes for sale is at 6.6 months. Some economists are even predicting that housing will add to GDP this year for the first time since 2007.
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Instead of spending hours on all your marketing efforts, work in 15-minute bursts on one thing at a time -- for example, newsletter content, then tweets, then a Facebook survey.

>> Review of Last Week

ANXIOUSLY UP... Stocks fell Friday thanks to new anxieties over European sovereign debt (Spain again) and the Dow and the Nasdaq gave up all their July gains, although the three market indexes ended higher for the week. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke didn't do much to relieve the anxiety, sharing his weaker economic outlook with Congress in his semi-annual testimony. Corporate earnings season began with a number of disappointing reports and even some of the positive ones were well-received only because of lowered expectations.

The week got off to a horrible start with June Retail Sales down 0.5%, dropping for the third month in a row. This clearly shows the economy slowing in Q2, although retail sales excluding autos are still up 3% in the last 12 months. Manufacturing data was mixed, with growth in New York, contraction in the Philadelphia region and Industrial Production up 0.4% overall. New weekly unemployment claims shot up by 24,000, heading back toward the 400,000 level. But the Fed's Beige Book hinted that reports on residential housing were "largely positive."
For the week, the Dow ended up 0.4%, at 12823; the S&P 500 was also up 0.4%, to1363; and the Nasdaq climbed 0.6%, to 2925.

Even though stocks held their own midweek, the hammering they took on Friday over Eurozone worries sent investors scurrying to bonds. Prices went northward, with the FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ending the week UP .83, at $106.05. Average U.S.mortgage rates were mostly lower with some types of mortgages reaching all-time lows in Freddie Mac's weekly survey. Their Chief Economist said, "With little signs of inflation and...U.S. Treasury bond yields in check, fixed mortgage rates are remaining low and helping to stir the housing market."

DID YOU KNOW?... The net worth of an individual is the amount by which all their assets, including cash, exceed their liabilities.

>> This Week’s Forecast

NEW HOME SALES, PENDING HOME SALES, Q2 GDP... Housing and economic growth are the big topics this week. June New Home Sales are expected to show slow but steady upward movement. June Pending Home Sales, tracking contract signings on existing homes, should be up, but not by as much as the month before. This is an indicator for existing home sales a couple of months out.

All eyes will be on Friday's Q2 GDP read. Unfortunately, many economists are predicting slower growth from the original estimate, which was already down from the Q1 number.

2012-07-18T14:45:00.000-04:00

If you absolutely, positively want to position yourself to be successful in today's market!

f you've been paying attention to the news this week, you've probably seen or heard people talking about the "Fiscal Cliff" or "Taxmageddon." These terms refer to a looming combination of tax increases and spending cuts that are scheduled to take effect at the end of 2012 and the beginning of 2013.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is making the rounds on Capitol Hill this week to encourage Congress to avoid a possible financial crisis by reforming the tax code and reducing government spending over the long term. A growing number of experts agree that failure to act could send our economy back into recession and possibly a depression. Politicians from both parties agree that our nation is facing a major financial turning point, and the fallout will have profound effects on every American.
Given the importance of this issue, we want to provide you with factual information on the potential impacts of the "Fiscal Cliff," and we will keep you updated on the issue as part of our PlainsCapital Votes 2012 initiative.
The non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) recently released a report called, "Between a Mountain of Debt and a Fiscal Cliff," which outlines the challenges associated with the "Fiscal Cliff."
This excerpt from the CRFB report gives an unbiased account of the serious situation facing our great country:

As Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has explained, at the end of the year "there's going to be a massive fiscal cliff of large spending cuts and tax increases." Although some combination of spending cuts and new revenue are desperately needed to put the country on a sustainable path, Chairman Bernanke has rightly pointed out that "it is important to achieve sustainability over a longer period...one day is a pretty short time frame."

Instead, policymakers should enact a comprehensive plan to replace much of the approaching fiscal cliff with a combination of tax reform, entitlement reform, and spending reductions which could phase in gradually and thoughtfully to put the debt on a clear downward path.

Absent such action, however, this deficit reduction would occur all at once in a blunt and ultimately antigrowth manner. The following is set to take place at the end of 2012:

The Expiration of the 2001/2003/2010 Tax Cuts
On December 31st, the set of tax cuts enacted in 2001, expanded in 2003, and extended in 2010 will expire. As a result, the top rate will rise from 35 percent to 39.6 percent and other rates will rise in kind. The 10 percent bracket will disappear, and the child tax credit will be cut in half and no longer be refundable. The estate tax will return to the 2001 parameters of a $1 million exemption and a 55 percent top rate. Capital gains will be taxed at a top rate of 20 percent and dividends will be taxed as ordinary income. Finally, marriage penalties will increase, and various tax benefits for education, retirement savings, and low-income individuals will disappear.

The End of AMT Patches
Congress generally "patches" the AMT every year to help it keep pace with inflation. As a result, just over four million tax returns currently pay the AMT. If a new patch is not enacted retroactively for 2012, that number will increase to above 30 million for that year and would exceed 40 million by the end of the decade.

The End of Jobs Measures
In February, the President signed an extension of a two percent payroll tax holiday and extended unemployment benefits through year's end. Under current law, both will disappear at the end of the year, causing employee payroll taxes to increase from 4.2 percent to 6.2 percent, and reducing the number of weeks individuals can collect unemployment insurance.

The End of Doc Fixes
The Sustainable Growth Rate formula calls for a substantial reduction in Medicare payments to physicians - a reduction lawmakers have deferred through continued "doc fixes" since the early 2000s. At the end of the year, the current doc fix will end, leading to a nearly 30 percent immediate reduction in Medicare physician payments.

The Activation of the Sequester
Beginning on January 1, 2013, an across-the-board $1.2 trillion spending sequester over ten years will go into effect as a result of the failure of the Super Committee. The sequester will immediately cut defense spending across the board by about ten percent, will cut non-defense discretionary spending by about eight percent, and will reduce Medicare provider payments by two percent. In total, this will result in an immediate $110 billion single-year reduction in budget authority.

The Expiration of Various "Tax Extenders"
Various normal "extenders," such as the research and experimentation tax credit and the state and local sales tax deduction, expired at the end of 2011. Some of these extenders are likely to be reinstated retroactively at the end of this year, but will disappear under current law.

The Implementation of New Taxes from PPACA
The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) included several revenue measures set to go into effect in 2013. The largest of these measures is a 0.9 percent increase in the Medicare HI (hospital insurance) payroll tax for higher earners and an effective 3.8 percent tax increase on investment income. The law also calls for an increase in the floor for unreimbursed medical expense deduction, a 2.3 percent excise tax on medical devices, limits on annual contributions to Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs), and elimination of the employer deduction for Medicare Part D retiree subsidy payments.

Reaching the Debt Ceiling
The debt ceiling agreement reached last summer is likely to allow continued borrowing through the 2012 election - particularly given that the Treasury Department has a number of "extraordinary measures" at their disposal to delay hitting the ceiling. However, the debt ceiling may need to be increased again at year's end in order to avoid a potential default.

Allowing some of the policies to occur at the end of the year would not necessarily be problematic, and could indeed improve our fiscal credibility and sustainability going forward. Some of the broad-based changes set to occur could help lawmakers further control discretionary spending, Medicare, and other programs while raising new revenues if they were all implemented in a targeted and gradual way. However, allowing all of the policies to occur at once would be such a large and abrupt change that they would be economically damaging. Moreover, policymakers should not abdicate their responsibilities for determining the nation's priorities and how to pay for them by turning over budget decisions to blunt tools and the sun-setting of existing policies. Instead, they should replace the dangerous fiscal cliff with a gradual, targeted, and credible plan to fix the debt.

(Visit CRFB.org to learn more about these important issues.)

TIME TO LOCK YOUR MORTGAGE RATE!

2012-05-30T14:36:00.000-04:00

If you absolutely, positively want to position yourself to be successful in today's market!

When fear become the motivating factor for buying treasuries, technical levels just don’t matter. We are making history today as the 10 year note trades at an all time low yield of 1.634%. The previous low was set in 1945 at 1.67%. Folks, this is a money grab as deposits exit European banks as quick as you can get to the teller’s window. Spanish banks are on the brink, in dire need of a capital injection from the ECB or the European Rescue fund. Greece cannot figure out what kind of a government to create and Germany is saying no to everything. Makings of a Lehman type moment. Stateside, Pending Home Sales fell off a cliff, down 5.5%. Not even record low mortgage rates can prop up that number. Help wanted on line ads fell 45K while companies like RIM and HP announce layoffs coming to the tune of 30K. Stocks feel the stress, off 150 points on the big board. Commodities are producing waterfall looking charts as oil breaks below $88.00 a barrel (see chart below), gold sinks towards $1500.00 an ounce, and the CRB Index (Commodities Research Bureau) falls to a level not seen since the middle of last year. Goes to show you how quick this cat an move. One day we’re talking about inflation, next day it’s all about deflation. If there were ever a time to buy a home or refi a loan, that time is now. Record low affordability coupled with record low mortgage rates makes real estate look very attractive. I believe we’ll look back at this period of time in 5 years or so and go wow, remember when ……… Don’t let this bus leave the station without you. Technically, we have a channel breakout . This has been accomplished by trading above the upper regression line that has capped the market all year. English translation, we are now trading a rally in “no man’s land”. Markets like this are particularly tricky to handicap. Reason being is that we don’t have a good fundamental reason for being this low in yield or on mortgage rates. We’re here because of fear. Take advantage of these levels given the reason I just mentioned and the fact that we have a high profile piece of data Friday (Employment Report). Herding cats my friends, the market is like herding cats!

Market Snapshot

2012-05-25T10:20:00.000-04:00

If you absolutely, positively want to position yourself to be successful in today's market!

A little better start this morning but inter4est rates continue in a narrow range ahead of the 3 day holiday. With US markets closed on Monday and the rest of the world working, the bond and stock market should trade in a tight range with the bond market not likely to see a lot of selling today. The bond and mortgage markets will close at 2:00 this afternoon with most traders out by 12:00.

The US dollar continues to gain strength over the euro on Europe’s debt crisis that isn’t close to any resolution. The euro fell against the dollar and yen for the fourth day amid concern Spain’s regional governments may lose access to capital markets. Spain’s government is analyzing “with all caution” requests from regional governments to help them regain access to capital markets. The Italian prime minister told an Italian television station yesterday that the majority of EU leaders at a Brussels meeting this week backed joint euro-area bonds. He added that Italy can help persuade Germany to support Europe’s “common good” as well. Germany is opposed to euro bonds and has only one thing on its agenda, continue the severe austerity moves that are not working and could well break up the EU unless there is more emphasis on improving economies with increased spending. Euro-area bonds lower borrowing costs for the currency’s most debt-stricken members by making repayment the responsibility of all 17 countries.

At 9:30 the DJIA opened -15, NASDAQ +1; the 10 yr note +10/32 at 1.75% -3 bp and MBS 30 yr price +6/32 (.18 bp).

At 9:55 the final May U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index was expected at 77.5 down from 77.8 two weeks ago at the mid-month sentiment. The index increased to 79.3 the highest reading since Oct 2007 and from the final read at the end of April at 76.4. The current condition at 87.2 frm 87.3 at mid-month, expectations at 74.3 frm 71.7 and the 12 month outlook at 91 frm 88. The better sentiment took the stock indexes off their lows but not into the black; the rate markets didn’t show much reaction to the better sentiment as the improvement is likely due to one thing, the decline in gasoline prices. The report does present volatility.

The rest of the day will be on very light volume and with little changes, The bond and mortgage markets close at 2:00 this afternoon.

TBWS Rate Alert

RE/MAX Mobile App/RE/MAX ELITE,MASON OHIO

2012-05-22T14:23:00.001-04:00

If you absolutely, positively want to postion yourself to be successful in today's market!

RE/MAX ELITE MARKETING FOR CINCINNATI

2012-04-12T15:12:00.000-04:00

If you absolutely, positively want to position yourself to be successful in today's market!

I have had many customers ask me how RE/MAX.COM works. Most have said " well that is national marketing" all markets are local so how does the customer benefit? Well, the good news is that my customers were right and wrong! They were right in the fact that RE/MAX.COM is a national site. That means that over 95% of all MLS services in the country feed to RE/MAX.COM. They were wrong that it did not translate into local markets. You see, when the consumer searches for homes on RE/MAX.COM ( or any RE/MAX agents personal website) they search by area or zip code. So someone can be searching Cincinnati Ohio in California and find every listing in Cincinnati or Chicago or Boston. You get it!

That makes it very local... It also gets more exposure for your home!

Speaking of more exposure when you list your home with RE/MAX. Did you know that RE/MAX.COM
has more consumers looking at homes than any other Real-Estate company in the world?

Each month RE/MAX publishes an advertisement schedule , TV, radio and Internet. This drives buyers and sellers to RE/MAX.COM . That drives buyers to the local markets!

Please feel free to call me if I can help!

Higher service levels at RE/MAX Elite

2012-04-09T13:04:00.000-04:00

If you absolutely, positively want to position yourself to be successful in today's market!

Here is a big shock, the Real-Estate market has changed in the last 3-5 years! More than ever Realtors have to deliver a higher level of customer service and they have to do it much faster than they use to. RE/MAX Elite agents understand this and that is why they have embraced on line contracts and electronic signatures. Lets face it, there is a 93-7 rule in the Real-Estate business today. The 7 percent that do 93 percent of the business really understand that their clients do not want to have to go into your office to sign addendum's or price changes...They appreciate the fact that they can sign Real-estate documents right on their pad, PC or phone.

Give us a call if we can help!

Tools for your Business

2012-03-08T13:09:00.000-05:00

If you absolutely, positively want to position yourself to be successful in today's market!

Google has partnered with RE/MAX, to offer a discount on a powerful suite of tools to help you run your Business.. I have used Google Apps for business for years. In the early days it had many challenges. Today they are much improved! http://remax.ltech.com/

You do not have to be with RE/MAX to use these tools. However, if organization is a struggle for you? This suite of products may help!

The RE/MAX Mobile App is Here! Download It. Rate It. Share It.

2012-03-07T14:33:00.002-05:00

If you absolutely, positively want to position yourself to be successful in today's market!

To download the free app, which features U.S. listings and much more, visit www.getmobile.remax.com or scan the QR code with your iPhone or Android smart phone. The iPhone app wows on the iPad, too..and rest assured, an iPad app is coming soon! Find the RE/MAX Mobile app by visiting the app store or Android Market and simply search RE/MAX.

"Your clients and prospects can get details of homes right in front of them, across town or across the country" said Margaret Kelly, CEO, "When they see something of interest, they tap a button and a RE/MAX agent gets the lead, with as always, no referral fee".

Our clients expect the best and the RE/MAX Mobile App keeps us on the cutting edge of Real Estate Technology!

For the week of March 5, 2012

2012-03-07T12:07:00.000-05:00

If you absolutely, positively want to position yourself to be successful in today's market!

For the week of March 5, 2012 – Vol. 10, Issue 10

BULLETIN... HUD is set to increase FHA up-front mortgage insurance premiums April 1. This is a significant change -- please relay this to your buyers immediately: waiting will be costly. Call or email us for further information.

>> Market Update

QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."If I had a way of buying a couple hundred thousand single-family homes... I would load up on them." --Warren Buffett

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Buffett, one of the world's most successful investors, appeared live on CNBC last Monday and told viewers: "... if I knew where I was going to want to live the next five or 10 years, I would buy a home and finance it with a 30-year mortgage, and it's a terrific deal." He added, "... if I was an investor that was a handy type... I could buy a couple of them... and find renters... and again take a 30-year mortgage.... I think that's probably as an attractive an investment as you can make now." Check out the video:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vkx57Ifein8&feature=share

Later that morning, as if on cue, January Pending Home Sales came in UP 2% from December and UP 8% over a year ago. This measure of homes under contract from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) hit its highest level since April 2010. The NAR's chief economist commented, "the trend in contract activity implies we are on track for a more meaningful sales gain this year."

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Apple means innovation. Disney says magic. What's the one special thing you stand for? Decide on that, then make it the focus of all your marketing efforts.

>> Review of Last Week

GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS... Bad news: the Dow suffered its third weekly loss since the start of the year. Good news: during the week, the Dow closed above 13,000 for the first time since 2008; the Nasdaq sailed over 3,000 (but didn't stay there) for the first time since 2000; and the S&P 500 had its best two-month annual start since 1987. Good news, bad news also describes the economic data we continue to get. The bad news began with Durable Goods sliding 4% in January. This was followed by the good news that Consumer Confidence spiked to 70.8 in February.

More good news came with manufacturing doing well in the Chicago region, followed by the bad news that manufacturing overall is growing, but slower than expected. It was good news that the Q4 GDP 2nd Estimate rose to 3%, February auto sales reached their highest level since before the recession and same-store sales shot up 6.4% at 18 retail chains. But bad news that Personal Spending, up 0.2%, and Personal Income, up 0.3%, were both weaker than expected.
For the week, the Dow ended down 0.04%, at 12978; the S&P 500 closed UP 0.3%, to1370; and the Nasdaq went UP 0.4%, to 2976.

Better economic data hurt bond prices in the first half of the week, but European worries ultimately drove investors back to the safe haven of bonds. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week up .01, to $103.14. In Freddie Mac's weekly survey,national average fixed mortgage rates eased this week, staying at or near record lows for the coming spring home buying season.

DID YOU KNOW?... In 2012, the NAR expects a 1.1% rise in the median price for existing homes, a 2.1% median price rise for new homes and a 3.3% rise in rents.

>> This Week’s Forecast

ALL EYES ON FRIDAY... That's when we get the February Employment Report which will tell us if the jobs situation, vital to the housing recovery, will continue its upward crawl. The consensus among economists is that there will be fewer new jobs for the month, although the Unemployment Rate should remain the same.

Those with jobs are accomplishing more, as Q4 Productivity is expected to be up again. The ISM Services index is predicted to show growth, but the Trade Balanceshould still have imports exceeding exports by over $48 billion.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Date	Time (ET)	Release	For	Consensus	Prior	Impact
M Mar 5	10:00	ISM Services	Feb	56.0	56.8	Moderate
W Mar 7	08:30	Productivity - Rev.	Q4	0.9%	0.7%	Moderate
W Mar 7	10:30	Crude Inventories	3/3	NA	4.160M	Moderate
Th Mar 8	08:30	Initial Unemployment Claims	3/3	355K	351K	Moderate
Th Mar 8	08:30	Continuing Unemployment Claims	2/25	3.405M	3.402M	Moderate
F Mar 9	08:30	Average Workweek	Feb	34.5	34.5	HIGH
F Mar 9	08:30	Hourly Earnings	Feb	0.2%	0.2%	HIGH
F Mar 9	08:30	Nonfarm Payrolls	Feb	207K	243K	HIGH
F Mar 9	08:30	Unemployment Rate	Feb	8.3%	8.3%	HIGH
F Mar 9	08:30	Trade Balance	Jan	-$48.1B	-$48.8B	Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... Everyone still expects the Fed to keep the Funds Rate down for now, since they said they'll try to keep it there til the end of 2014. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on:	Consensus
Mar 13	0%–0.25%
Apr 25	0%–0.25%
Jun 20	0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:	Consensus
Mar 13	<1%
Apr 25	<1%
Jun 20	<1%

INSIDE THE MARKETS

2011-09-19T16:02:00.001-04:00

If you absolutely, positively want to position yourself to be successful in today's market!

QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."Work joyfully and peacefully, knowing that right thoughts and right efforts will inevitably bring about right results."--James Allen (1864-1912), British inspirational writer

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE...We did see some right results for housing last week, and hopefully we've been working joyfully and peacefully to bring them about. Realtor.com reported that inventories of homes, condos, townhouses and co-ops shrank in August for the fourth month in a row. They're now down 19% from a year ago, and rest at 2.27 million units. Dropping inventories do keep home prices from falling and, supporting this, the national median list price was unchanged from June and July and up about 0.5% from a year ago, at $189,900.

National average mortgage rates continued to drift downward, again hitting new record lows. And borrowers are responding, with demand for purchase loans up 7% from the week before, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Refinancing applications are also up. Freddie Mac's chief economist noted the average interest rate on outstanding mortgages is 5.28% and that refinancing into a 30-year fixed mortgage at today's rates could save $1715 a year in interest on a $200,000 loan.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...The best indicator of long term success is actually "street smarts." To develop yours, dive in, don't dawdle over decisions, learn from your mistakes and experiment continually.

>> Review of Last Week

TURNAROUND!...Stocks headed back up five days in a row, giving the S&P500 its best performance since June, though it was just the second weekly rise in eight weeks. The week began with great worry over the status of French banks, but things turned positive on news that the BRIC countries--Brazil, Russia, India and China--are in talks to buy eurozone debt. The European Central Bank also lined up other central banks to help out with loans if needed. This got Wall Streeters feeling so good, they ignored the lackluster U.S. economic reports and sent stock prices skyward.

The parade of mediocre data was led by producer inflation, flat for August but up 6.5% from a year ago. Core CPI consumer inflation was up 0.2% for August and up 2.0% versus a year ago, putting it at the top of the Fed's target range. That could make this week's Fed meeting interesting. New jobless claims inched up to 428,000. Retail was flat for August, but even in good times there are off months, and anyway Retail Sales are up 7.2% from a year ago. Finally, the industrial sector continues to lead the recovery, with August production and capacity both UP.
For the week, the Dow ended UP 4.7%, at 11509; the S&P 500 was UP 5.4%, to 1216; and the Nasdaq was UP 6.3%, to 2622.

Worries about European debt made Treasuries and mortgage bonds look like safe bets, sending prices up at first. But inflation concerns and the stock rally ultimately sent bonds the other way. The FNMA 3.5% bond we track closed Friday at $101.05, down .98 for the week. Nevertheless, as mentioned above, national average mortgage rates inched down, setting new record lows.

DID YOU KNOW?...A prepayment (or prior redemption) privilege is a clause allowing the borrower to pay off a mortgage early without penalty. When interest rates fall, this lets the borrower pay off the mortgage and refinance at a lower rate.

>> This Week’s Forecast

NEW CONSTRUCTION, EXISTING HOME SALES AND, OH YES, ANOTHER FED MEETING...It will be useful for folks with our interests to check out Tuesday's August Housing Starts, expected to be down. This will at least help clear the inventory of new homes. The annual rate for Building Permits should be down a little as well. Wednesday will give us the Existing Home Sales reading for August, predicted to be inching back toward the 5 million level.

Wednesday we'll also see the Fed's policy statement from the latest FOMC meeting.No one expects the rate to rise, but speculation surrounds Chairman Bernanke's decision to extend the confab to two days. What will they say about inflation? Will they launch Operation Twist and start buying long bonds? Will they throw more money into the system?

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Date	Time (ET)	Release	For	Consensus	Prior	Impact
Tu Sep 20	08:30	Housing Starts	Aug	592K	604K	Moderate
Tu Sep 20	08:30	Building Permits	Aug	588K	597K	Moderate
W Sep 21	10:00	Existing Home Sales	Aug	4.70M	4.67M	Moderate
W Sep 21	10:30	Crude Inventories	9/17	NA	–6.7M	Moderate
W Sep 21	14:15	FOMC Rate Decision	9/21	0%-0.25%	0%-0.25%	HIGH
Th Sep 22	08:30	Initial Unemployment Claims	9/17	417K	428K	Moderate
Th Sep 22	08:30	Continuing Unemployment Claims	9/10	3.730M	3.726M	Moderate
Th Sep 22	08:30	Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Index	Aug	0.1%	0.5%	Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...This week's Fed meeting does not have economists expecting a boost in the Funds Rate, even though last week's inflation figures could bring a hike sooner than the two years the Fed wants to keep the rate at its super low level. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on:	Consensus
Sep 21	0%–0.25%
Nov 2	0%–0.25%
Dec 13	0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:	Consensus
Sep 21	<1%
Nov 2	<1%
Dec 13	<1%

...

2011-09-15T15:08:00.000-04:00

If you absolutely, positively want to postion yourself to be successful in today's market!

Federal tax credits for most energy-efficient home improvements are set to expire at the end of 2011.Experts say they won't be extended. Purchase and installation must be this year, so you need to start projects no later than October or November.

Products and projects that qualify for the federal tax credit may be found at:
http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=tax_credits.tx_index
Rebates and tax credits are also offered by states and these incentives can be searched at:
http://www.dsireusa.org

The maximum federal tax credit is $500 and the amount varies depending on the product. But tax credits are often better than deductions, which only reduce your taxable income. Tax credits reduce your total tax liability, so it's like getting money back from the IRS.

Plus, energy-efficient upgrades save you money year after year. Insulation can reduce air leakage 20% to 30%, saving about $220 a year. New windows can save up to $500 a year. A new air conditioner is typically 30% more efficient than a 10-year-old one. New ductwork, central air cooling and water heaters are also very cost-effective improvements.

For bigger green projects, federal tax breaks are available until 2016! Examples include solar energy systems, geothermal heat pumps, small wind turbines and fuel cells. These may earn a tax credit worth up to 30% of the cost, with no dollar limit. For more information, check the Energy Star website:http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=tax_credits.tx_index

Check the websites above for eligible projects. Andalways consult with a tax professional before proceeding with expenditures that have tax implications.

PS Thinking of upsizing, downsizing or refinancing to take advantage of today's affordable home prices and historic low mortgage rates? Please call or email us now to discuss your situation.

Inside The Markets

2011-09-12T10:01:00.000-04:00

If you absolutely, positively want to position yourself to be successful in today's market!

Market Update

QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."The lure of the distant and the difficult is deceptive. The great opportunity is where you are."--John Burroughs, American naturalist and essayist

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE...The great opportunity now is for home buyers to get a mortgage at an historically low rate. Freddie Mac reported national average mortgage rates set new record lows last week. But according to most observers, buyers shouldn't expect further rate dips. Lenders are seeing plenty of loan volume, so they don't have to lower pricing to get more activity.

Opportunity was also one of the themes in Fannie Mae's August National Housing Survey, where 69% of Americans polled say now is a good time to buy a home. And in spite of all the talk about more price declines, people expect home prices to dip only 0.5% in the next year. This is why some observers feel we're at a price bottom now. A strong 46% of Americans expect rents to go up in the next year, so that should motivate purchases as well.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...Business school researchers found that the businesses able to survive economic downturns were ones who continually changed in response to the business climate, adapted to the headwinds and constantly tried new ideas.

>> Review of Last Week

CONTINENTAL DRIFT...In four days of stock trading, the Dow drifted down for the sixth week out of the last seven, all because of financial dramas on the European continent. Europe's Central Bank President failed to offer any plan to stimulate growth following the downward revision to his GDP forecast for the region. Friday there was talk that Greece might default on its debt over the weekend. On our shores, news that weekly initial jobless claims are still above 400,000 didn't help matters either.

Even a couple of surprisingly good U.S. economic reports couldn't overcome all these bad vibes. The August ISM Services Index was UP, to a better-than-expected 53.3, showing expansion in the non-manufacturing sector responsible for about 85% of our jobs. Following this, it was reported that the July Trade Deficit shrank, thanks to a $6.2 billion INCREASE in exports, which are UP 15.1% in the last year, ahead of imports, up 13.6%.

For the week, the Dow ended down 2.2%, at 10992; the S&P 500 was down 1.7%, to 1154; and the Nasdaq was down 0.5%, at 2468.

Friday the bond market saw a huge flight to safety by investors motivated by those rumors of a weekend Greek default. A government spokesman in Athens said that wouldn't be so, but Wall Streeters opted for sleeping undisturbed until Monday. The FNMA 3.5% bond we track closed Friday at $102.03, up .81 for the week. Mortgage bond prices were up and, as mentioned above, national average mortgage rates set new record lows.

DID YOU KNOW?...The CPI inflation indicator measures the change in the cost of a fixed basket of products and services like housing, food and transportation. The Core CPI favored by the Fed excludes food and energy prices because of their monthly volatility.

>> This Week’s Forecast

This week began with the observance of the 10th anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks. Our thoughts are with all those who lost their lives and with their families, whose lives were forever changed.

INFLATION, RETAIL, MANUFACTURING...Wholesale inflation is expected to be well under control in Wednesday's Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI readings for August. Thursday, the critical Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI inflation measures are also forecast well within the Fed's target range. August Retail Sales should still show consumers doing their part, although sales growth is predicted to be less than July's.

Manufacturing is expected to be down a tad in the August Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization readings. And the Empire Manufacturing Index for New York and the Philadelphia Fed Index should still show contraction in those regions, although less than in the prior month.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Sep 12 – Sep 16

DateTime (ET)ReleaseForConsensusPriorImpact

W

Sep 1408:30Producer Price Index (PPI)Aug0.0%0.2%Moderate

W

Sep 1408:30Core PPIAug0.2%0.4%Moderate

W

Sep 1408:30Retail SalesAug0.2%0.5%HIGH

W

Sep 1408:30Retail Sales ex-autoAug0.3%0.5%HIGH

W

Sep 1410:00Business InventoriesJul0.5%0.3%Moderate

W

Sep 1410:30Crude Inventories9/10NA–3.963MModerate

Th

Sep 1508:30Initial Unemployment Claims9/10410K414KModerate

Th

Sep 1508:30Continuing Unemployment Claims9/33.700M3.717MModerate

Th

Sep 15

08:30Consumer Price Index (CPI)Aug0.2%0.5%HIGH

Th

Sep 1508:30Core CPIAug0.2%0.2%HIGH

Th

Sep 1508:30Empire Manufacturing IndexSep–4.0–7.7Moderate

Th

Sep 1508:30Industrial ProductionAug0.0%0.9%Moderate

Th

Sep 1508:30Capacity UtilizationAug77.4%77.5%Moderate

Th

Sep 1510:00Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing IndexSep–10.0–30.7HIGH

F

Sep 1609:55Univ. of Michigan Consumer SentimentSep56.355.7Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...Economists see a hike in the Funds Rate as the farthest thing from the Fed's collective mind, clear through the first half of 2013. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on:Consensus

Sep 200%–0.25%

Nov 20%–0.25%

Dec 130%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:Consensus

Sep 20 <1%

Nov 2 <1%

Dec 13 <1%

This e-mail is an advertisement for Kim Schieldknecht. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company.. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. The material does not represent the opinion of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital or RE/MAX Elite.

Inside Lending

2011-09-08T14:22:00.000-04:00

If you absolutely, positively want to postion yourself to be successful in today's market!

QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please."--Mark Twain

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE...Last week's housing market facts were so good, it was hard for commentators to distort them into the negative picture many like to paint. Wednesday's Pending Home Sales for May came in 8.2% ahead of April, the biggest monthly gain since November and 13.4% higher than May a year ago! This annual hike was the first in over a year, while the monthly gain points to sales increases come June and July. All regions were up, the Midwest leading with a 17.2% annual bump!

April's Case-Shiller home price index posted its first gain in eight months, UP 0.8% in the top 10 metros and UP 0.7% in the top 20. Data aggregator CoreLogic's Home Price Index was UP in May for the second month in a row.

It was also nice to see consumers aren't discouraged. In a New York Times/CBS News poll, almost 9 in 10 Americans say homeownership is an important part of the American Dream. And consumers continue to believe that the market will eventually improve and housing will regain its traditional importance.

Lastly, the Wall Street Journal reported, "there are growing indications that it is a good time to buy," concluding that "the long-term case for home ownership is looking stronger."

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...Take the initiative. Don't wait for things to happen, get them started right now. Instigate, experiment, test, learn. Don't just react to the world, take action yourself!

>> Review of Last Week

EARLY FIREWORKS...It was an explosive week for stocks, as investors just couldn't wait for the weekend celebrations. It was one of the biggest weekly market gains in two years. Greece passed unpopular austerity measures and got its bailout. This calmed Wall Streeters worried about US bank exposure to Greek bonds. The week began with inflation still under control. Core PCE Prices were up 0.3% in May and up only 1.2% for the year. And personal income is up 4.2% in the past year.

On the jobs front, key to housing, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in May, the unemployment rate fell year-over-year in 74% of the metro areas measured. Investors were also buoyed by an unexpected uptick in manufacturing. The Chicago PMI bolted up to 61.1 in June, showing strength in Midwestern manufacturing. Manufacturing nationwide also grew strongly, as the ISM Manufacturing index jumped to 55.3 for the month. In both cases a drop had been forecast.

For the week, the Dow ended UP 5.4%, to 12583; the S&P 500 was UP 5.6%, to 1340; and the Nasdaq was UP 6.1%, to 2816.

With stocks surging, bonds headed lower as investor fears dissipated and the Fed ended its QE2 bond buying program. So the FNMA 4.0% bond dropped heavily, ending the week down 1.84, at $99.25. But national average rates on fixed-rate mortgages barely moved, still near yearly lows. National average rates on 5-year adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) also hit lows for the year.

DID YOU KNOW?...Last week's Chicago PMI, or Purchasing Managers Index, measures the health of manufacturing in that region. It's based on a survey of purchasing managers who share data on factors like new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventory.

>> This Week’s Forecast

WILL JOBS JUMP IN JUNE?...Happy Independence Day! There are no economic reports today and markets are closed. Everyone's focus is on Friday's June Employment Report. Economists do not foresee a big jump in jobs just yet, only a nudge up to around 80,000 new payrolls. This won't be enough to drop unemployment below the existing 9.1% rate.

Wednesday features June ISM Services, forecast basically flat, but still above 50, indicating growth in the non-manufacturing sector. Service businesses provide around 85% of U.S. jobs, so expansion is good.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of July 4 – July 8

Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact

W

Jul 6 10:00 ISM Services Jun 54.0 54.6 Moderate

Th

Jul 7 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 7/2 425K 428K Moderate

Th

Jul 7 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 6/25 3.700M 3.702M Moderate

Th

Jul 7 11:00 Crude Inventories 7/2 NA -4.375M Moderate

F

Jul 8 08:30 Average Workweek Jun 34.4 34.4 HIGH

F

Jul 8 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jun 0.2% 0.3% HIGH

F

Jul 8 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jun 80K 54K HIGH

F

Jul 8 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jun 9.1% 9.1% HIGH

>> Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...With the recovery slowing, economists expect Fed Chairman Bernanke to keep the Funds Rate where it is until things get moving again. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus

Aug 9 0%–0.25%

Sep 20 0%–0.25%

Nov 2 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus

Aug 9 <1%

Sep 20 <1%

Nov 2 <1%

Market update 3-14

2011-03-14T16:31:00.000-04:00

If you absolutely, positively want to postion yourself to be successful in today's market!

We have a good amount of economic data this week. The primary focus will be the FOMC’s rate decision scheduled for tomorrow at 1:15 p.m. CT. The FOMC has been referencing "contained inflation expectations" in their official statements. As far as the consumer goes, these expectations are on the rise. The Univ. of Michigan consumer confidence report’s reading on inflation expectations took a large increase in the March survey. With the March FOMC announcement scheduled for tomorrow, it will be interesting to see if this rise is addressed. There will also be attention given to the consumer and producer price indices for February. We will get regional manufacturing reports from the New York Fed and the Philadelphia Fed. There has been great strength in manufacturing, and we would expect the sentiment to continue to reflect that. Industrial production and capacity utilization will also be released. The National Association of Home Builders will report on homebuilder sentiment which may tick higher on an increase in recent sales. We will also see the number of housing starts and building permits for February.

Treasuries have carved out further gains today following the disaster in Japan. We have stuck to a mostly bullish outlook as the market continues to the upside, but today we have seen buyers from last Wednesday and Thursday head for the exit sign as those purchases were not strongly reinforced. Last Wednesday’s post-auction buying laid some groundwork for a rally and was in fact confirmed by Thursday’s gains. Bulls didn’t completely give up on Friday, but today’s action makes us think that buyers have decided to pull back on the reigns a little, mostly due to the fact that this market is not rallying like it should following the end of last week’s events. That doesn’t rule out higher prices and better rates, just that it will take fresh reasons for these gains to extend. Fresh buyers in the market are needed at this point. Bullish signals on dailies point to a test of the 120-27 level (roughly 3.26%). Upward momentum may begin to increase if the market can push through that level. With a close above 120-02 today, our chances are good that this market still have some upside potential within the near term. 10yr is currently trading 3.35%, along with mortgage backs up 6 ticks in the lower coupons.

source:
Joe Webb

VP, Trading/Pipeline Management

PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company

6 Tips: Dominate Your Farm Area

2011-03-13T08:56:00.000-04:00

If you absolutely, positively want to postion yourself to be successful in today's market!

Make sure it's a good fit.Choose your farm wisely.

Know your clientele.
make sure to highlight recent sales data and industry updates. Clientele in other communities may not be as interested in these details.

Do what feels right.. You have to find the method of follow-up that works for you, because only then will it appear genuine.

Be patient and consistent. Give the mailer, or whatever marketing strategy you use, time to work; it can take many months to start seeing direct results.

Be prepared for thick and thin.
Instead of abandoning your farm and clients when the market downturn began, adapt to their changing needs and earned a new specialization. .

Adjust your expectations.
make it your job to provide answers.

Do YouTube: Create Neighborhood Videos

2011-03-11T06:09:00.000-05:00

If you absolutely, positively want to postion yourself to be successful in today's market!

Effective marketing, of course, is key to selling a property, but marketing a neighborhood can be equally important.

Get tips for creating effective neighborhood marketing videos in a new clip titled "Shooting a Neighborhood Video"

The series focuses on ways to create clips with high marketing impact for your websites, social media profiles, personal YouTube page.

Use these links to watch all of the "You Can Do YouTube" tips videos:

Call me to Learn more about how to make and import your videos.

Daily Market Update

2011-03-10T13:08:00.000-05:00

If you absolutely, positively want to postion yourself to be successful in today's market!

By the time stateside trading opened this morning, both bonds and stocks were already in the fast lane. Escaladed fighting in Libya and sovereign debt issues resurfacing (PIGS nations of Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) pushed stocks and oil lower while giving a boost to bonds. Jobless Claims rose 26K to 397K yet Continuing Claims fell 20K. The latter is more of a function of Americans running out of benefits. The bump in Weekly Claims brings into question the strength of our employment recovery. Keep in mind that this index is extremely volatile. In other news, Bill Gross, the godfather of bond investing at Pimco, has sold all positions in U.S. Government related debt in his flagship fund, Pimco Total Return. Reason given is due to projected record budget deficits and the impact on inflation. He also said that Pimco may re-enter the market when interest rates rise from current “artificial lows” created by Federal Government purchases (QE1, QE2, and maybe QE3). His timing maybe a little early given MENA, Euro debt issues, and our uneven recovery but just the same, this guy knows his stuff and it paints a picture of interest rates rising as the year goes on. 13 billion of 30 year bonds hit the auction block as well today. We’ll report the outcome shortly after high noon CST. Technically, the chart is range bound with stability at lower yields. This suggest bullish potential and/or a higher probability of lower interest rates/better mortgage pricing. Trouble is that the signal are not very strong. Our bias is neutral with an edge to the bulls but at the same time we like being defensive. Reason is that the fast money crowd follows the headlines and money is getting thrown around like my wife at the mall. She’ll love that one. Currently, the 10 year note is trading at 3.46%, fading from the early morning gains. Mortgage backs are off their highs ( we priced plus 5/32’s), now up 2/32’s. Be careful. Stocks are off 155 points on the big board. Interesting charts below on Gold and Oil. Both have broke their uptrend and look to be heading for a powerful correction.

PRIMELENDING/SVP- CAPITAL MARKETS

The sales world is changing. Are you changing?

2011-03-08T07:46:00.000-05:00

Been in sales for more than five years? Notice any changes? Of course you have - but probably not the ones I'm going to talk about.

I'm NOT talking about the economy, or customers in financial trouble, or slow sales, or price pressures from competition, or pressures from your boss to "sell more now."

Oh and, by the way, how about YOUR changes? Still cold calling? Still learning "how to close?" Still "finding the pain?" Still trying to figure out social media? Still a bit behind technology? That's your problem.

I AM talking about changes that have taken place over the past five years that will affect sales into the next decade. Your sales.

Here are the major changes that have taken place, and how you must take advantage of them and master them to sell and succeed:

The mobile phone is now your main communication device. It's fast, reliable, and gives you instant access to message and respond.
The Internet is your new marketplace. It's not just how your website stacks up against the competition; it's also how your website exceeds customer needs and wows them. How and what are you messaging to your customers? How easy is it to do e-commerce business with you?
Google is your new reputation and character builder (or assassin). Where do you rank? Not just as a company, but also as a person. Your customers are Googling you! It's time to build a foundation of positive information online.
Your customers expect INSTANT - not a computer voice. Every customer wants and expects a live, friendly person ready to help them when they call you. If you want to know how you're doing in this department, call yourself five minutes before you open, or five minutes after you close, and try to place an order for a hundred thousand dollars.
China is the 51st state. Get over it, and get with it. Figure out how to use their workforce and quality of manufacturing to help your customers.
Text communication is the new "instant." Five years ago it was email. Text is personal. CAUTION: GET PERMISSION TO TEXT. And, by the way, if you do, it's more than a buying signal of a loyal customer; it's also a report card of your performance, your ethics, and your perceived value.
Collaboration with customers. Do they consider you a partner or a sales rep? Are you a trusted advisor or still bidding on jobs as they come up? Are you inside the decision-making room, or outside waiting for a call as to your fate?
Differentiation from the competition. It's no longer a price fight to the finish unless you're looking to do business with Wal-Mart or give up your profit (or both).
Value messaging rather than sales pitching. Any advertisement should be about customer's value after ownership and/or a testimonial statement directly from them. "A dollar over invoice" no longer holds an ounce of credibility. Customers wanting to buy can validate any claim you make in a Google-nanosecond by looking online first.
Value-driven sales presentations. Are you using more boring we-we "slide decks from marketing" or are you finally getting that sales is about what happens AFTER ownership (not before)? How will they produce and profit?
Profit from purchase, not "save money, buy now!" No real decision maker is looking to save money as a reason to purchase. CEOs, presidents, and business owners want to make a profit.
Using voice of customer as proof to your claims. Testimonials are the only proof that your claims are valid.
Using social media to make connections. Five short years ago, there was no awareness of social media sites or YouTube. They were all just born or a year old. Facebook is now the third largest country in the world. And growing. Linking in rather than cold calling. Tweeting a daily value message to your customer and prospect base. Creating and consistently posting on your business Facebook Page.
Weekly email magazine with a value message. Sent to all customers, prospects, and influential people in your industry.

It ain't the way it was, and it never will be that way again. If you think that things will go back to "normal" after the economy rebounds, please don't hold your breath. And please don't WAIT for things to happen - MAKE things happen.

GREAT NEWS: You give me a techno savvy, internet friendly, Google ranked, instant responding, collaborating, different, social media savvy, value driven, value based, value messaging salesperson - who uses voice of customer testimonials, and is interested in how the customer profits - and I'll give you a sale!

What can you do to begin to sell and succeed in today's sales world as fast as possible? Go to www.gitomer.com and enter the words RIGHT NOW in the GitBit box.

Jeffrey Gitomer is the author of The Little Red Book of Selling and eight other business books on sales, customer loyalty, and personal development