climate code red

Global fossil fuel subsidies in 5 unforgettable graphs

2012-02-20T10:26:00.000+11:00

As the five biggest oil companies made a record-high $137 billion in profits, these five unforgettable charts on global fossil fuel subsidies, courtesy of The Guardian, need no explanation. But by way of a very brief summary:

While government support to renewable power sources is subject to seemingly endless media and political scrutiny, the 500% larger subsidies given to oil, gas and coal rarely get much attention.
Governments and taxpayers spent $409 billion in 2010 supporting the production and consumption of fossil fuels, three-quarters of which went to the oil industry.

Just 8% of that $409 billion went to the poorest 20% of the population
Global subsidies for fossil fuel consumption are set to reach $660 billion in 2020 unless reforms are passed to effectively eliminate this form of state aid, according to International Energy Agency chief economist Fatih Birol.

Eliminating fossil fuel consumption subsidies by 2020 would cut global energy demand by 4 percent, cutting demand for oil by 3.7million barrels a day.
Dropping subsidies could slow growth in CO2 emissions by 1.7bn tonnes a year, equivalent to the total emissions of the UK, Germany, Italy and France.

In Australia, the SMH reported that taxpayers spend about 11 times more encouraging the use of fossil fuels than on climate change programs. Fossil fuel incentives and subsidies will cost about $12.2 billion this financial year in Australia, compared with $1.1 billion spent on programs designed to cut greenhouse gas emissions and boost research.

Its hardly as though big oil needs the cash. The five biggest oil companies made a record-high $137 billion in profits in 2011, and have made more than $1 trillion in profits from 2001 through 2011. And every $1 spent on lobbying in Washington, the big five received $30 worth of tax breaks.
On 24 January 2012, Independent US Senator Bernie Sanders pledged to introduce legislation to repeal federal tax breaks and subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, declaring at a Capitol Hill rally that "the most profitable corporations in the world do not need subsidies from the American people." Ditto Australia.

Additional sources: Reuters, IBTimes

Climate News

2012-02-20T08:17:00.001+11:00

Week ending 19 February 2012

PICKS OF THE WEEK: HEARTLAND

Leaked docs from climate-denying think tank reveal strategy
http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/02/15/leaked-docs-from-climate-denying-think-tank-reveal-strategy/
Graham Readfearn, Crikey, 15 February 2012
Leaked financial reports and documents from a US-based think tank that denies the risks of human-caused climate change show links to an Australian academic and detail a strategy to pursue funds from corporations affected by climate policies.
AND
Dollars, documents and denial: a tangled web
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3834220.html

Scientist accepts 'cash for climate'
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/scientist-accepts-cash-for-climate-20120215-1t7ho.html
Ben Cubby, The Age, February 16, 2012
A prominent Australian scientist has rejected as offensive any suggestion he is doing the bidding of a US climate-sceptic think tank that is paying him a monthly fee.

Heartland Institute Exposed: Internal Documents Unmask Heart of Climate Denial Machine
http://www.desmogblog.com/heartland-institute-exposed-internal-documents-unmask-heart-climate-denial-machine
Brendan Demelle, DeSmogBlog, 14 February 2012
Internal Heartland Institute strategy and funding documents obtained by DeSmogBlog expose the heart of the climate denial machine – its current plans, many of its funders, and details that confirm what DeSmogBlog and others have reported for years. The heart of the climate denial machine relies on huge corporate and foundation funding from U.S. businesses including Microsoft, Koch Industries, Altria (parent company of Philip Morris) RJR Tobacco and more.

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Climate sceptics – who gets paid what?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/15/climate-sceptics-pai-heartland-institute
Leaked documents show US thinktank the Heartland Institute has been making payments to experts and scientists to cast doubt on climate science. Here, we profile some of the figures

Heartland Documents Reveal Fringe Denial Group Plans to Pursue Koch Money, Dupe Children and Ruin Their Future
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/02/14/425649/heartland-documents-denial-group-koch-money-dupe-children-cultivate-revkin
Joe Romm, Climate Progress, Feb 14, 2012
Racing around the internet are some internal documents that appear to be from the Heartland Institute, a relatively obscure hard-core anti-science think tank.

Open Letter to Heartland Institute from Climate Scientists
http://planetsave.com/2012/02/18/open-letter-to-heartland-institute-from-climate-scientists/
18 February 2012
As scientists who have had their emails stolen, posted online and grossly misrepresented, we can appreciate the difficulties the Heartland Institute is currently experiencing following the online posting of the organization’s internal documents earlier this week. However, we are greatly disappointed by their content, which indicates the organization is continuing its campaign to discredit mainstream climate science and to undermine the teaching of well-established climate science in the classroom.

The inside story on climate scientists under siege
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/17/michael-mann-climate-war
Suzanne Goldenberg, Guardian, 17 February 2012
Michael Mann reveals his account of attacks by entrenched interests seeking to undermine his 'hockey stick' graph

Climate-change naysayers drowning out scientific research, expert says
http://www.canada.com/technology/Climate+change+naysayers+drowning+scientific+research+expert+says/6165986/story.html
Margaret Munro, Postmedia News, 17 February 2012
The president of one of the world's biggest scientific organizations says the research community is being outgunned by naysayers.

FOCUS ON... FRACKING

Fracturing natural gas wells requires hundreds of tons of chemical liquids
http://www.ohio.com/news/local-news/fracturing-natural-gas-wells-requires-hundreds-of-tons-of-chemical-liquids-1.264478
Bob Downing, Beacon Journal, February 12, 2012
There are two sides to the debate over the use of chemical additives to complete the process called hydraulic fracturing, or fracking.

Tighten fracking regulations, scientists urge US officials
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/16/shale-gas-regulations-scientists-us
Ian Sample, Guardian, 16 February 2012
Influential group calls on regulators to ensure safe handling of toxic fluids used in controversial hydraulic fracturing

Fracking study sends alert about leakage of potent greenhouse gas
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2012/0213/Fracking-study-sends-alert-about-leakage-of-potent-greenhouse-gas
Pete Spotts, CSM, February 13, 2012
A new study finds that fracking is releasing methane, a greenhouse gas, from a Colorado field at a higher rate than estimates suggested. Researchers must determine if the field is an anomaly or part of a bigger problem.

ENERGY&INNOVATION

Oakeshott, Windsor biomass burner scheme Pythonesque
http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/02/13/oakeshott-windsor-biomass-burner-scheme/
Andrew Macintosh, Crikey, 13 February 2012
Imagine a climate policy plan that was incapable of lowering emissions but could increase them, that resulted in no net gain in the amount of renewable electricity generation, and that cost Australian taxpayers millions each year.
AND
Oakeshott sparks a forestry firestorm
http://theconversation.edu.au/getting-practical-with-push-for-zero-carbon-homes-5301

Global fossil fuel subsidies in 5 unforgettable graphs
http://www.climatecodered.org/2012/02/global-fossil-fuel-subsidies-in-5.html
ClimateCodeRed, 15 February 2012
As the five biggest oil companies made a record-high $137 billion in profits, these five unforgettable charts on global fossil fuel subsidies, courtesy of The Guardian, need no explanation.
AND
Do Americans support or oppose subsidies for fossil fuels?
http://environment.yale.edu/climate/the-climate-note/do-americans-support-or-oppose-subsidies-for-fossil-fuels/

The hot news in cleantech this week …
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/the-hot-news-in-cleantech-this-week-85827
Sophie Vorrath, REnewEconomy, 17 February 2012
It’s a relatively well-known fact these days that the US military is one of renewable energy’s biggest fans, so it shouldn’t come as too big a surprise that Lockheed Martin – the US-based global aerospace, defense and security technology powerhouse – is getting in on the act too.

PacHydro sees 14GW of solar by mid 2020s
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/pachydro-sees-14gw-of-solar-by-mid-2020s-45783
Giles Parkinson, REnewEconomy, 13 February 2012
Pacific Hydro has unveiled some bullish forecasts for the rollout of solar in Australia – both PV and solar thermal – although it says it is conditional on the manner of deployment of monies from the proposed $10 billion Clean Energy Finance Corp and on changes to regulatory rules for the electricity market.

More than 68% of New European Electricity Capacity Came From Wind and Solar in 2011
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/02/12/422649/new-european-electricity-capacity-wind-solar-in-2011
Stephen Lacey, Climate Progress, Feb 12, 2012
As the sovereign debt crisis unfolds in Europe, onlookers have questioned whether the region will stay committed to renewable energy. The answer so far is “yes.”
AND
More than 1.1 Million People Employed in EU’s Renewable Energy Sector
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/02/14/424914/1-million-people-employed-eu-renewable-energy-sector

Cloud hangs over Rudd's clean coal vision
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-14/rudd-carbon-capture-storage-institute/3769936
Michael Atkin, ABC News, February 14, 2012
One of the world's leading clean coal experts wrote to then-prime minister Kevin Rudd warning that his multi-million dollar Global Carbon Capture and Storage Institute was a mistake, an ABC investigation has confirmed.

POLITICS&POLICY---------------

Carbon message lost in negativity
http://www.thepowerindex.com.au/power-fail/carbon-message-lost-in-negativity-neil-lawrences-verdict/201202131026
Matthew Knott, PowerIndex, 14 February 2012
Neil Lawrence, the marketer behind the Kevin07 ad campaign, has slammed the Gillard government's attempt to sell the carbon tax as "clumsy and asinine".

Revealed: How fossil fuel reserves match UN climate negotiating positions
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2012/feb/16/fossil-fuel-reserves-un-climate-negotiating
Duncan Clark, Guardian, 16 February 2012
New figures calculate how much CO2 each country could emit in the future and asks how their fuel reserves affect their position at the UN climate negotiations

SCIENCE&IMPACTS---------------

“No time to waste” on transition to green energy
http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/48649
ERW, 16 February 2012
If the entire world adopted ‘green’ forms of energy tomorrow, how long would it take for global temperatures to stabilize? The answer is a good 50 years: even if we "pull out all of the stops" there is little we can do to diminish the impact of climate change during the first half of this century.
THE RESEARCH
iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/1/014019/pdf/1748-9326_7_1_014019.pdf
Myhrvold N P and Caldeira K (2012), Greenhouse gases, climate change and the transition from coal to low-carbon electricity Environ. Res. Lett. 7 014019 (doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014019)
VIDEO
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2012/02/video-ken-caldeira-on-limiting-global-temperature-rise

Extreme Summer Temperatures Occur More Frequently in U.S. Now, Analysis Shows
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/02/120215143116.htm
ScienceDaily, Feb. 15, 2012
Extreme summer temperatures are already occurring more frequently in the United States, and will become normal by mid-century if the world continues on a business as usual schedule of emitting greenhouse gases.

Climate change role in floods won't be clear for a decade, say scientists
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change-role-in-floods-wont-be-clear-for-a-decade-say-scientists-20120213-1t29a.html
Ben Cubby, The Age, February 14, 2012
THE floods inundating northern NSW and Queensland are likely to have been driven in part by human-induced climate change - although the precise extent of this influence won't be known for another decade.

Arctic Sea Ice Update: Spectacular and Ominous
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/02/13/423709/arctic-sea-ice-update-spectacular-and-ominous/
Neven Acropolis, Climate Progress, Feb 13, 2012
Has the melt season started in the Barents and Kara Seas two months earlier than normal?
AND CLIMATE IMPACTS IN BRITAIN...
Fears of British super-drought after record low rainfall in winter
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/12/summer-drought-looms-for-england
AND IN NORTH AMERICA...
Climate experts say warm U.S. winter is due in part to Arctic Oscillation
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/local-news/20120211-climate-experts-say-warm-u.s.-winter-is-due-in-part-to-arctic-oscillation.ece
Jet Lag: What's Causing One of the Driest, Warmest Winters in History?
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=whats-causing-dry-winter&WT.mc_id=SA_20120213

Global Ice Loss & Sea Level Rise: 2003-2010
http://www.ecology.com/2012/02/10/global-ice-loss-sea-level-rise/
Bob Petz, Ecology.com, February 10, 2012
Between 2003 and 2010, the Earth lost 4.3 trillion tons (1,000 cubic miles) of ice mass — enough to raise global sea levels about 0.5 inches (12 mm) or cover an area the size of the U.S. with 1.5 feet (0.5 m) of water — according to a new study published February 8 in the online journal Nature.
AND
Fears Lake council can't afford to adapt to sea level rise
http://www.theherald.com.au/news/local/news/general/fears-lake-council-cant-afford-to-adapt-to-sea-level-rise/2454162.aspx
Damon Cronshaw, Newcastle Herald, 14 February 2012
Concerns were raised last night that Lake Macquarie City Council would not have enough money to pay for infrastructure upgrades to adapt to sea level rise.
AND
Lawmakers push for flood insurance as new research predicts rising storm surges
http://www.eenews.net/public/climatewire/2012/02/15/1

Climate change increases risk of storm surges, according to MIT study
http://www.boston.com/Boston/metrodesk/2012/02/climate-change-increases-risk-storm-surges-according-mit-study/3iC046kFbxF5RtIsGXkNeK/index.html
Carolyn Y. Johnson, Boston Globe, 14 February 2012
Studies of climate change and its impact on coastal communities usually focus on rising sea level. Now, scientists from MIT and Princeton University have developed a method to examine how multiple effects of climate change – including the combination of sea-level rise and stronger hurricanes -- will affect storm surges that wash over sea walls and inundate communities, damaging buildings and infrastructure.

Learn from climate history: epidemiologist
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2012/s3419860.htm
The decline of the Mayan empire; the Black Death and the Great Famine in medieval Europe and the collapse of the Ming Dynasty; what's the link?

Fish of Antarctica Threatened by Climate Change
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/02/120213154053.htm
ScienceDaily, Feb. 13, 2012
A Yale-led study of the evolutionary history of Antarctic fish and their "anti-freeze" proteins illustrates how tens of millions of years ago a lineage of fish adapted to newly formed polar conditions -- and how today they are endangered by a rapid rise in ocean temperatures.

Climate in the media to 12 February 2012

2012-02-13T19:44:00.001+11:00

PICKS OF THE WEEK---------------

Air sampling reveals high emissions from gas field
http://www.nature.com/news/air-sampling-reveals-high-emissions-from-gas-field-1.9982
Jeff Tollefson, Nature, 7 February 2012
Methane leaks during production may offset climate benefits of natural gas.
AND
NOAA measure high CH4 emissions over gas field
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/noaa-measure-high-ch4-emissions-over-gas-field-22933

Government confirms AFP spying on coal seam gas protesters
http://www.greensmps.org.au/content/media-release/government-confirms-afp-spying-coal-seam-gas-protesters
Christine Milne, 7 February 2012
Minister Joe Ludwig, representing the Attorney General in the Senate, confirmed in Question Time today that the Australia Federal Police monitors coal seam gas protesters and that the government outsources some intelligence gathering to private consultants.
Mixed Greens: Hybrid solar cells boost efficiency
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/mixed-greens-hybrid-solar-cells-boost-efficiency-89697
Giles Parkinson, RenewEconomy, 9 February 2012
Scientists at the University of Cambridge say they have developed a new type of hybrid solar cell which could convert 44 per cent of sunlight into electrical power, nearly a third more than the current best case scenario of 34 per cent.

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Back issues here
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Big oil's bumper subsidies
http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/big-oils-bumper-subsidies
Daniel J Weiss, Jackie Weidman & Rebecca Leber, Center for American Progress, 9 Feb 2012
General economic theory holds that companies will produce more of a good if its price is higher, or if it receives subsidies. Funny that these rules didn’t seem to apply to Big Oil in 2011, when the highest oil price since 1864 and $2 billion in subsidies to the five largest oil companies – BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, and Royal Dutch Shell – yielded lower oil production than in 2010.

Earth Summit is doomed to fail, say leading ecologists
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21465-earth-summit-is-doomed-to-fail-say-leading-ecologists.html
Fred Pearce, New Scientist, 10 February 2012
We can forget about fixing the planet's ecosystems and climate until we have fixed government systems, a panel of leading international environmental scientists declared in London on Friday. The solution, they said, may not lie with governments at all.

Carbon tax only a good start: report
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/carbon-tax-only-a-good-start-report-20120205-1qzw1.html
Tom Arup, The Age, February 6, 2012
A carbon price alone will not be enough for Australia to meet its target of a dramatic cut in greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century, an analysis by the Grattan Institute has found.

Social media explained in just one image
https://twitter.com/#!/jamesadonis/status/166622553891282944/photo/1
MEDIA & MEDIA MOGULS---------------

New study: “The greater the quantity of media coverage of climate change, the greater the level of public concern”
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/02/06/419371/study-debunks-al-gore-polarized-the-debate-myths-of-public-opinion-climate-change
Joe Romm, Climate Progress, 6 February 2012
A must-read study published Monday in the journal Climatic Change debunks some pervasive myths about public opinion and climate change. The lead author, Dr. Robert J. Brulle of Drexel University, gave me an exclusive interview.

New Study: Political Elite Shapes Climate Discourse
http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/2012/02/new-study-political-elite-shapes-climate-discourse/
Keith Kloor, Yale forum, February 9, 2012
Fresh analysis of public opinion presents a vexing challenge for climate communicators.

Lord Monckton and the Future of Australian Media
http://www.themonthly.com.au/blog-lord-monckton-and-future-australian-media-robert-manne-4575
Robert Manne, the Monthly blog, 8 February 2012
In July 2011, one of the most extreme climate change denialists, Lord Monckton, accepted an invitation to take a trip to Australia – a country that matters greatly in the struggle against global warming because of its vast deposits of coal.

Australia reacts to Lord Monckton's call for a 'Fox News' funded by 'super rich'
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2012/feb/08/fox-news-lord-monckton-australia
Leo Hickman, Guardian, 8 February 2012
Campaigners warn against mining interests buying up media after Lord Monckton calls for UK and Australia to have a 'Fox News'

Gina Rinehart, Australian mining magnate and now media mogul
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/feb/08/gina-rinehart-australian-mining-magnate
Alison Rourke, Guardian, 8 February 2012
One of the world's richest women has bought into the Australian media. Will she use this to push her views on tax and mining?ENERGY&INNOVATION---------------

U.S. solar needs innovation, not protection
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/08/us-solar-idUSTRE8171PK20120208
Gerard Wynn, Reuters, Feb 8, 2012
A brewing green energy trade war, with mooted U.S. retaliation against Chinese makers of solar panels and wind turbine parts, is high on rhetoric but distracts from a bigger technology race.

Mixed Greens: Hybrid solar cells boost efficiency
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/mixed-greens-hybrid-solar-cells-boost-efficiency-89697
Giles Parkinson, RenewEconomy, 9 February 2012
Scientists at the University of Cambridge say they have developed a new type of hybrid solar cell which could convert 44 per cent of sunlight into electrical power, nearly a third more than the current best case scenario of 34 per cent.

Canberra scuttling solar 'flagships', say Greens
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/canberra-scuttling-solar-flagships-say-greens-20120206-1r1w9.html
David Wroe, The Age, February 7, 2012
The Greens have accused the government of creating a solar energy scheme that was ''designed to fail'' after it emerged that two major solar projects set to receive $750 million in government funding have failed to find investor backing.
AND
Forget flagships, the real solar action is in ACT
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/forget-flagships-the-real-solar-action-is-in-act-73510
Giles Parkinson, RenewEconomy, 7 February 2012
As the mainstream press gets excited about discovering news – almost two months old – that the Solar Flagships program is in danger of collapse because the two chosen consortia failed to obtain funding by the December 15 deadline, the main game in the Australian solar industry has moved – from the corridors of power in the Federal Parliament to the more modest resources of the ACT Legislative Assembly.

Bacchus Marsh drill site sparks protest
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/bacchus-marsh-drill-site-sparks-protest-20120206-1r1w8.html
Adam Morton, The Age, 7 February 2012
The latest in a series of protests ends with the arrest of a man who chained himself to a drilling rig eight metres above the ground.

A smart grid and seven clean energy sources
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/a-smart-grid-and-seven-clean-energy-sources-31471
Giles Parkinson on 6 February 2012
The Grattan Institute’s study into Australia’s energy future – “No easy choices: Which way to Australia’s energy future” – canvasses seven technologies that could help deliver an 80 per cent reduction in emissions by 2050.

Solar Panels From Grass Clippings: Researchers Make Progress on “Biophotovoltaics”
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/02/05/418574/solar-panels-from-grass-clippings-biophotovoltaics
Stephen Lacey, Climate progress, 5 February 2012
It’s chore day. You’ve raked the leaves, taken out the recycling, and emptied out the old junk in your garage. But wait — don’t toss it all out! You have all the ingredients for your very own homemade solar system.

Can technology save us? Reality-checking Andrew Charlton’s Quarterly Essay
http://theconversation.edu.au/can-technology-save-us-reality-checking-andrew-charltons-quarterly-essay-5097
Michael Peck, the Conversation, 7 February 2012
In his recent Quarterly Essay, Man-made world: choosing between progress and planet, economist Andrew Charlton presents technological innovation as the solution to climate change and the route to unbounded economic growth.

Victorians want power station funds halted
http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/article/2012/02/10/441041_latest-news.html
AAP/Weekly Times, 10 February 2011
Almost 12,000 people have called on the government to withdraw Howard-era funding to build a coal-fired power station in Victoria.
BUT
Ferguson grants extension for contentious power plant project
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/ferguson-grants-extension-for-contentious-power-plant-project-20120210-1sbcf.html

Bill Gates backs climate scientists lobbying for large-scale geoengineering
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/06/bill-gates-climate-scientists-geoengineering
John Vidal, Guardian, 6 February 2012
Other wealthy individuals have also funded a series of reports into the future use of technologies to geoengineer the climate

Ed Davey throws weight behind green energy by opening giant UK windfarm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/09/windfarm-worlds-biggest-cumbria
Terry Macalister, Guardian, 9 February 2012
Walney farm off Cumbria, opening today, is world's largest, with Britain 'number one destination for investment in offshore wind'

State says no to Vasse Coal proposal
http://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/Results.aspx?ItemID=147985

POLITICS---------------

Beyond the carbon price, a Faustian bargain
http://www.climatecodered.org/2012/02/beyond-carbon-price-faustian-bargain.html
David Spratt, Crikey, 6 February 2012
The carbon tax starts on July 1 this year, so there’s some tidying up to do around the edges -- appointments, financing, regulations -- and then a big tick next to the climate policy box on the cabinet whiteboard. Minister Greg Combet has already taken on the additional portfolios of industry and innovation.

Why climate change will make you love big government
http://grist.org/climate-change/why-climate-change-will-make-you-love-big-government/
Christian Parenti, Grist, 5 February 2012
Look back on 2011 and you’ll notice a destructive trail of extreme weather slashing through the year.

The great carbon bubble: Why the fossil-fuel industry fights so hard
http://grist.org/fossil-fuels/the-great-carbon-bubble-why-the-fossil-fuel-industry-fights-so-hard/
Bill McKibben, Grist, 7 Feb 2012
If we could see the world with a particularly illuminating set of spectacles, one of its most prominent features at the moment would be a giant carbon bubble, whose bursting someday will make the housing bubble of 2007 look like a lark. As yet — as we shall see — it’s unfortunately largely invisible to us.

See you in court: solving aviation emissions is an international mess
http://theconversation.edu.au/see-you-in-court-solving-aviation-emissions-is-an-international-mess-5183
David Hodgkinson, The Conversation, 8 February 2012
Aviation is a growing source of emissions. Emissions from aviation are increasing against a background of decreasing emissions from many other industry sectors.

Clean coal company feels the heat
http://afr.com/p/national/clean_coal_company_feels_the_heat_wDalgejVvCT4NlVOqbGoUP
Mathew Dunckley, AFR, 7 February 2012
Victorian “clean coal” company HRL is under increasing financial stress as the federal and Victorian governments weigh the future of $150 million in taxpayer support for the business.

SCIENCE&IMPACTS---------------

Melting ice sheets already seen driving sea-level rise
http://www.eenews.net/public/Greenwire/2012/02/08/1
Paul Voosen, E&E/Greenwire, February 8, 2012
In the Earth's frozen extremes, it appears, the future is now.
AND
Global Ice Loss from 2003-2010 Could “Cover the Entire United States in One and Half Feet of Water”
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/02/09/421825/global-ice-loss-cover-the-entire-united-states-in-one-and-half-feet-of-water/

Australia has record two-year rainfall
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/australia-has-record-twoyear-rainfall-20120207-1r38u.html
SMH, February 7, 2012
It's official - Australia has had its wettest two-year period on record. It will come as no surprise to most that the seemingly endless rain from spring 2010 to autumn last year, and again late last year, resulted in record falls.

Meteorologist Masters: “The Climate Has Shifted to a New State Capable of Delivering Rare & Unprecedented Weather Events”
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/02/07/420141/meteorologist-masters-climate-new-state-rare-unprecedented-weather-events
Climate Progress, 7 February 2012
An Interview with Weather Underground’s Dr. Jeff Masters

Amazon comes under fire
http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/48550
ERW, 7 February 2012
The Amazon rainforest stores around 100 billion tonnes of carbon in its biomass, the equivalent of more than 10 years' worth of emissions from fossil fuels. But the region has undergone major changes recently, experiencing deforestation and climate variability.

2C warming goal now 'optimistic' - French scientists
http://news.yahoo.com/2c-warming-goal-now-optimistic-french-scientists-175655985.html
AFP, 9 February 2012
French scientists unveiling new estimates for global warming said on Thursday the 2 C (3.6 F) goal enshrined by the United Nations was "the most optimistic" scenario left for greenhouse-gas emissions.

Global Sea Level Rise: Pothole To Speed Bump?
http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=1262
Rob Painting, Skeptical Science, February 2012
As indicated in a press release from the NASA Jet Propulsion Lab last year, short-term trends in global sea level rise are greatly affected by temporary exchanges of water mass between the land surface and ocean - creating 'potholes' and 'speed bumps' in the sea level record. This a consequence of changes in precipitation (rainfall & snow) resulting from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Teetering on an Arctic tipping point
http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/teetering-arctic-tipping-point
Carlos Duarte, The Conversation, 7 Feb 2012
We are seeing the first signs of dangerous climate change in the Arctic. This is our warning that humanity is facing a dire future.

Tree rings show extreme weather on the rise
http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2012/02/06/3423860.htm
Darren Osborne, ABC Science, 6 February 2012
If history is anything to go by, periods of droughts and flooding rains could become more common in south-eastern Australia and New Zealand, according to a new study

City of Yarra to act on threat of heatwave deaths
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/city-of-yarra-to-act-on-threat-of-heatwave-deaths/story-fn7x8me2-1226263108774
John Masanauskas, The Herald Sun, 6 February 2012
An inner-city council is being urged to start preparing for "catastrophic climate change" because governments are not doing enough to respond.

Beyond the carbon price, a Faustian bargain

2012-02-06T14:22:00.000+11:00

by David Spratt, a Crikey cross-post

The carbon tax starts on July 1 this year, so there’s some tidying up to do around the edges -- appointments, financing, regulations -- and then a big tick next to the climate policy box on the cabinet whiteboard. Minister Greg Combet has already taken on the additional portfolios of industry and innovation.
     If only. A barely reported new study on Earth’s energy imbalance from NASA climate chief James Hansen and his research team contends that, far from answering the climate challenge, we have constructed "a Faustian bargain".

     The new NASA study (and science brief) reaffirms that increased levels of greenhouse gases caused by human activity -- and not changes in solar activity -- are the primary force driving global warming. With new calculations of the Earth's energy imbalance, the study finds the planet’s surface continued to absorb more energy than it returned to space, despite unusually low solar activity between 2005 and 2010.
     The study uses improved measurements from free-floating instruments to calculate the amount of heat that has been absorbed by the world’s oceans, and thus refines understanding of how heat and energy imbalances are distributed in the climate system. And that’s where news becomes more sobering.
     One conclusion of the study is that "the overall cooling effect from aerosols could be about twice as strong as current climate models suggest".
     So what’s the big deal? Human activity modifies the impact of the greenhouse effect by the release of airborne particulate pollutants known as aerosols. These include black-carbon soot, organic carbon, sulphates, nitrates, as well as dust from smoke, manufacturing, wind storms, and other sources. Aerosols have a net cooling effect because they reduce the amount of sunlight that reaches the ground and they increase cloud cover. This is popularly known as "global dimming", because the overall aerosol impact is to mask some of the warming effect of greenhouse gases.
     Hansen’s new study estimates this aerosol "dimming" at 1.2 degrees (plus or minus 0.2°), much higher than previously figured. Aerosols are washed out of the atmosphere by rain on average every 10 days, so their cooling effect is only maintained because of continuing human pollution, the principal source of which is the burning of fossil fuels, which also cause a rise in carbon dioxide levels and global warming that lasts for many centuries.
     So on the one hand, we desperately need to reduce the burning of fossil fuels to zero, and quickly. Emissions need to fall off a cliff. Hansen has shown that to keep warming in the long run to a safe level of under one degree, fossil fuel emissions would need to be cut by 6% a year beginning in 2012, plus 100 billion tonnes of carbon reforestation drawdown this century. Other work finds that if global emissions do not peak until 2020, then to limit warming to the (unsafe) two-degree range, the rate of emissions reduction needs to hit 9-10% a year, and requires total de-carbonisation by 2035-45. Needless to say, those figures are not on the cabinet whiteboard, and would be greeted with incredulity by most climate policymakers.
     On the other hand, rapid and deep reductions in fossil fuel emissions (and emissions from burning cleared vegetation from rainforest destruction) will cut the aerosols and their temporary cooling. If all aerosols were removed from the system, about half the 1.2° of lost cooling would appear very quickly as a pulse of warming, with the other half following over a few decades.
     And that is the Faustian bargain. If we keep burning fossil fuels the way we are, the planet will head towards four degrees of warming by century’s end, and a carrying capacity of less than a billion people. And if we cut emissions rapidly, we lose aerosol cooling and get a pulse of warming that creates very dangerous conditions.
     There are two conclusions that help us find a way out of this maze. The first is that part of the answer is to develop and deploy, at very large scale, methods that draw down carbon from the atmosphere (whether by reforestation, biochar or other means) to reduce the energy imbalance and the warming to come. The second is that some form of geo-engineering, that provides temporary cooling while carbon emissions and aerosols are run down and carbon drawdown is scaled up, is probably the least-worst option.
     Decarbonising the economy quickly is absolutely necessary. It will build new industries and jobs, but also require stranding of capital embedded in obsolete, fossil-dependent technologies, and reshaping how and where we live, travel and maintain food and water security. There is, as yet, no political model of how these changes could be achieved in the developed nations. The plethora of rapid transition plans that have appeared in the past few years are strong on the technology and the financing, but weak on the politics.
     The choice is between some significant disruption now while we make the transition quickly, or a state of permanent and escalating disruption as the planet’s climate heads into territory where most people and most species will not survive. Our task now is to chart the "least-worst" outcome. Delayed action over the past three decades has created a Faustian bargain, or bureaucratic terms, a "super wicked problem".

Climate in the media to 5 February 2012

2012-02-05T13:26:00.006+11:00

PICKS OF THE WEEK---------------

Canberra’s push to be the nation’s solar capital
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/canberras-push-to-the-be-nations-solar-capital
Giles Parkinson, RenewEconomy, 30 January 2012
The ACT government has called for tenders for the first round of contracts to build up to 40MW of large scale solar facilities in the territory, with the winners of the first tender to be announced in July.

Greenpeace chief warns of ‘perfect storm’ of crises
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/02/03/greenpeace-chief-warns-of-perfect-storm-of-crises
Agence France-Presse, February 3, 2012
The head of environmental pressure group Greenpeace warned Friday the world faced a “perfect storm” of crises and was heading for what he termed a crisis of “epic proportions.”

Get Ready for Super-Extreme Weather: “We Are Just Now Experiencing the Full Effect of CO2 Emitted [by] the Late 1980s”
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/01/30/414188/super-extreme-weather-co2/
Jeff Masters, Climate Progress, 30 January 2012
We’ve set in motion a dangerous boulder of climate change that is rolling downhill, and it is too late to avoid major damage when it hits full-force several decades from now. However, we can reduce the ultimate severity of the damage with strong and rapid action.
AND
Changing the Conversation: Extreme Weather and Climate
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/RickyRood/comment.html?entrynum=195
Rick Rood, wundergroud, 6 June 2011
It has been an exceptional year of tornadoes in the U.S. Hundreds have died and several cities have been especially hard hit(Jeff Masters on Living on Earth). Ultimately, I will talk about these tornadoes and climate change and bring, at least temporarily, closure to my discussion on event attribution and climate change.

World running out of resources: UN
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-01-31/world-running-out-of-resources-says-un/3801618
Jill Colgan, ABC News, January 31, 2012
A major United Nations report has called for a sustainable "evergreen revolution", warning that time is running out to ensure there is enough food, water and fuel to meet the needs of the world's rapidly growing population.

Methane makes shale gas a current climate danger
http://theconversation.edu.au/methane-makes-shale-gas-a-current-climate-danger-5020
Renee Santoro, The Conversation, 31 January 2012
In the US, as in Australia, debate about the merits of alternative gases has been heated. In the US the contentious gas is shale, rather than coal seam. But at least one source of conflict is the same: this gas may provide energy, but will it reduce greenhouse gas emissions?

FOCUS ON... MEDIA, MOGULS & CLIMATE

Rinehart’s media ambitions: bad news for coverage of climate change
http://theconversation.edu.au/rineharts-media-ambitions-bad-news-for-coverage-of-climate-change-5124
Mary Debrett, The Cinversation, 2 February 2012
News that Gina Rinehart has reportedly attained a 12.8% stake in Fairfax Media (and is seeking just under 15%) is bad for the Australian media environment: it potentially puts yet another billionaire in a position to influence what gets published as “news” in this country, and more importantly what doesn’t.

Mining in a new vein
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/mining-in-a-new-vein-20120201-1qtcd.html
Clive Hamilton, Sydney Morning Herald, February 2, 2012
If Gina Rinehart succeeds in getting a controlling interest in Fairfax Media, the only competition to the Murdoch stable of newspapers in Australia, the nation's political landscape will be changed.

Is a misleading climate change op-ed in the Wall Street Journal really news?
http://www.readfearn.com/2012/01/is-a-misleading-climate-change-op-ed-in-the-wall-street-journal-really-news/
Graham Readfearn, 31 January 2012
WHAT’S news these days when it comes to climate change? Could it be the news that rising temperatures could severely affect the world’s wheat crops maybe?

Authors of Wall Street Journal climate piece downplay industry ties
http://wwwp.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2012/02/industry-influence
By Amy Silverstein, DailyClimate, 1 February 2012
Half the authors of a controversial Wall Street Journal opinion piece denying the Earth's warming trend have ties to the oil and gas industry, a DailyClimate.org investigation finds.

Panic Attack: Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal Finds 16 Scientists to Push Pollutocrat Agenda With Long-Debunked Climate Lies
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/01/29/413961/panic-attack-murdoch-wall-street-journal-finds-16-scientists-long-debunked-climate-lies/

So the planet stopped warming, says Rupert
http://www.climatecodered.org/2012/02/so-planet-stopped-warming-says-rupert.html

The Wall Street Journal’s willful climate lies
http://grist.org/climate-skeptics/the-wall-street-journals-willful-climate-lies/

ENERGY--------------

Semprius claims “game-changer” record in PV efficiency
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/semprius-claims-game-changer-record-in-pv-efficiency
Giles Parkinson, RenewEconomy, 1 February 2012
US-based solar PV module start-up Semprius said it has set a world record for photovoltaic module efficiency, reaching 33.9 percent – the first time a company has claimed an efficiency rating of more than one third. The rating, which was achieved in tests indoors and outdoors in Spain, beats the previous record of 32 per cent.

India's panel price crash could spark solar revolution
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21328505.000-indias-panel-price-crash-could-spark-solar-revolution.html
Michael Marshall, New Scientist, 02 February 2012
Solar power has always had a reputation for being expensive, but not for much longer. In India, electricity from solar is now cheaper than that from diesel generators.

Coal on the Ropes: In One Week, 4,099 MW of U.S. Coal Plants Are Set to Close or Hung Up in Court
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/02/01/416062/coal-plants-set-to-close-in-court
Stephen Lacey, Climate Progress, Feb 1, 2012
In less than one week, eight U.S. coal plants representing 4,099 MW of capacity have been put on the chopping block for closure or have been delayed in court due to environmental concerns.

An analysis of the economic impacts of the China First mine
https://www.tai.org.au/file.php?file=/media_releases/An%20analysis%20of%20the%20economic%20impacts%20of%20the%20China%20First%20mine.pdf
Richard Denniss, Australia Institute, 16 December 2011
While the profits flowing to the owners of the Waratah Coal, which is rather accurately known as the 'China First Project', will be substantial, the net economic benefits to Australia will, at best, be small.

Does the rebound effect matter for policy?
http://grist.org/energy-efficiency/does-the-rebound-effect-matter-for-policy/
David Roberts, Grist, 31 January 2012
In my last post, I offered a brief introduction to the “rebound effect,” by which energy demand, after dropping in response to energy efficiency gains, “rebounds” back upward as the money/energy savings are spent elsewhere.

Why Germany should aim for 200GW of solar
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/germany-urged-to-aim-for-200gw-of-solar
Matthew Wright, RenewEconomy, 2 February 2012
German energy experts and the renewable energy industry are now calling for a national target of 200GW of solar power by 2030.

POLITICS---------------

Clean energy finance – the battle lines are drawn
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/clean-energy-finance-the-battle-lines-are-drawn
Giles Parkinson, RenewEconomy, 1 February 2012
The polemics around carbon pricing have been largely shunted into the background following the passage of the government’s legislation, but a far more important piece of legislation for the short and medium term future of the clean energy industry in Australia will be presented to parliament this year – the Clean Energy Finance Corporation. And it seems there could be more at stake for the energy industry than the carbon price itself.

UN calls for sustainable measure of GDP
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/un-calls-for-a-new-sustainable-measure-of-gdp
Giles Parkinson, ReNewEconomy, 31 January 2012
A new report released by the United Nations calls on world governments to change the way they do business, end fossil fuel subsidies and factor in social and environmental costs into the measurement of economic activity. It notes that the standard method of calculating economic growth through measures such as GDP ignores the impacts on the planet and food and water resources.

Denmark puts 2030 emissions target on the agenda
http://www.euractiv.com/climate-environment/denmark-puts-2030-emissions-target-agenda-news-510478
EurActiv, 31 January 2012
Europe’s 27 environment ministers will call for a 40% greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2030 if they follow draft conclusions - seen by EurActiv - prepared by the Danish EU presidency ahead of a meeting on 9 March.

SCIENCE AND IMPACTS---------------

The Vanishing Face of Gaia (audiobook)
http://www.posthypnoticpress.com/on-sale-now-item?r=TYRX96CINL
In The Vanishing Face of Gaia, British scientist James Lovelock predicts global warming will lead to a Hot Epoch. Lovelock is best known for formulating the controversial Gaia theory in the 1970s, with Ruth Margulis of the University of Massachusetts, which states that organisms interact with and regulate Earth's surface and atmosphere.

New Study Sheds Light On Little Ice Age
http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1112464637/new-study-sheds-light-on-little-ice-age/
Red Orbit, 30 January 2012
University of Colorado researchers report that they have answered some questions surrounding Earth’s Little Ice Age, which started between A.D. 1275 and 1300, and lasted into the late 19th century.

Arctic climate change 'to spark domino effect'
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/arctic-climate-change-to-spark-domino-effect-20120130-1qpgv.html
SMH, January 31, 2012
WA-based scientists have warned of "dire consequences" to the human race after detecting the first signs of dangerous climate change in the Arctic.

Climate change a 'fundamental' health risk
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/climate-change-a-fundamental-health-risk/story-e6frf7jx-1226257887237
AAP, January 31, 2012
A leading Australian disease expert says prompt action on climate change is paramount to our survival on earth. Epidemiologist Tony McMichael has conducted an historical study that suggests natural climate change over thousands of years has destabilised civilisations via food shortages, disease and unrest.
AND
Briefing Paper: Climate Change and Health – Time to Act
http://www.germanwatch.org/klima/health12.htm
Winfried Zacher, January 2012
Climate change will result in grave consequences for the health of the world population. While industrialized countries have begun to protect themselves by starting adaptation programs developing countries have only limited resources to do so.
AND
Learn from climate history: epidemiologist
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2012/s3419860.htm
ABC PM, 31 January 2012
The decline of the Mayan empire; the black death in Europe; the collapse of the Ming Dynasty; the Great Famine in Europe - what's the link? The ANU's Professor Tony McMichael says it's climate change.

Science behind the big freeze: is climate change bringing the Arctic to Europe?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/science-behind-the-big-freeze-is-climate-change-bringing-the-arctic-to-europe-6358928.html
Steve Connor, The Independent, 4 February 2012
A loss of sea ice could be a cause of the bitter winds that have swept across the UK in the past week, weather experts say

Extreme heat hurts wheat yields as world warms: study
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/29/us-climate-crops-idUSTRE80S0JG20120129
David Fogarty, Reuters, Jan 29, 2012
Extreme heat can cause wheat crops to age faster and reduce yields, a U.S.-led study shows, underscoring the challenge of feeding a rapidly growing population as the world warms.

Texas Heat Wave Caused by Global Warming, NASA's Hansen Says
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20120131/texas-heat-and-drought-caused-global-warming-climate-change-james-hansen-nasa-science-skeptics-oklahoma-moscow
Elizabeth Grossman, InsideClimate News, Jan 31, 2012
Temperature data shows the Texas heat wave wouldn't have occurred without warming, Hansen claims. Others aren't ready to draw such a definitive conclusion.

FOCUS ON... SEA LeVeLS

Singapore raises sea defenses against tide of climate
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/27/us-climate-singapore-idUSTRE80Q05P20120127
David Fogarty, Reuters, 26 January 2012
A 15-km (10 mile) stretch of crisp white beach is one of the key battlegrounds in Singapore's campaign to defend its hard-won territory against rising sea levels linked to climate change.

Probing sea rise impact
http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2012/02/01/304921_news.html
Peter Begg, Geelong Advertiser, February 1st, 2012
LARGE sections of the Bellarine Peninsula, including areas around Point Lonsdale and Barwon Heads, are at risk of being inundated by rising sea waters from climate change.

Pine Island glacier loss must force another look at sea-level forecasts
http://www.climatecodered.org/2010/01/pine-island-glacier-loss-must-force.html
David Spratt, climatecodered.org, 4 February 2012
A giant crack in Antarctica's Pine Island Glacier signals birth of monster iceberg

Sea Level Rise, One More Frontier For Climate Dialogue Controversy
http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/2012/02/sea-level-rise-one-more-frontier-for-climate-dialogue-controversy/
Sara Peach, Yale Forum, February 2, 2012
Residents and civic officials from Delaware to San Francisco and from Galveston to North Carolina’s Outer Banks are learning as they go on preparing for sea level rise risks that some of their residents fundamentally doubt. Part I of a Two-Part Feature.

Pine Island glacier loss must force another look at sea-level forecasts

2012-02-04T10:57:00.000+11:00

Pine Island Glacier's vast crack, pictured in October 2011.
View hi-res image.
Image courtesy NASA/METI/ERSDAC/JAROS

Update 4 February 2012: A giant crack in Antarctica's Pine Island Glacier signals birth of monster iceberg

National Geographic reports that Antarctica's fastest-melting glacier is about to lose a chunk of ice larger than all of New York City, with implications for the rate of rise for sea levels. The crevasse (pictured) is 30 kilometres long and up to 80 metres wide, cutting across the floating tongue of the Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica, and expected to create an iceberg of about 900 square kilometres.
      That is larger than the area of Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and the Bronx combined, according to NASA. In Australian terms, it is larger than the Adelaide Metropolitan Region.
     Eric Rignot of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory says the monster iceberg will be created "in the coming months for sure."
     Of all the Antarctic glaciers, Pine Island is contributing most to sea-level rises. Ted Scambos of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado says iceberg calving is a normal cycle in which the floating section grows, stresses mount, and an iceberg breaks off, but when the pattern deviates, glaciologists take notice. AsxNational Geographic reports:

In this case, the crack is forming significantly farther "upstream" than has previously been the case. That "signifies that there are changes in the ice," Scambos said.
When "that point of rifting starts to climb upstream, generally you see some acceleration of the glacier." That means that the ice will flow into the ocean at a faster rate, contributing even more to sea level rise.
Such an acceleration is of particular concern at the Pine Island Glacier, because, among Antarctic glaciers, it's "the one that's contributing the most to sea level rise."
In fact, he said, ice flows from that glacier alone account for a quarter to a third of Antarctica's total contribution to sea level rise.

Update 28 June 2011: Columbia University researchers have just reported that "Ocean Currents Speed Melting of Antarctic Ice". They find that "Stronger ocean currents beneath West Antarctica’s Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf are eroding the ice from below, speeding the melting of the glacier as a whole, according to a new study in Nature Geoscience. A growing cavity beneath the ice shelf has allowed more warm water to melt the ice, the researchers say—a process that feeds back into the ongoing rise in global sea levels. The glacier is currently sliding into the sea at a clip of four kilometers (2.5 miles) a year, while its ice shelf is melting at about 80 cubic kilometers a year - 50 percent faster than it was in the early 1990s - the paper estimates."
For discussion of map/image, see here.

Post of 24 January 2010:

New research suggest that just two collapsing West Antarctic glaciers could add another half a metre to sea levels this century

The Victorian and Queensland governments decisions to stick to an "upper boundary" sea-level rise estimate of 0.8 metres by 2100 (and NSW at 0.9 metre) for planning purposes needs urgent revision, with new modelling showing two West Antarctic glaciers are past their tipping points.
The 0.8 metre estimate for sea-level rises to 2100 is already obsolete:

The Copenhagen climate science congress of March 2009 estimated a sea-level rise of 0.75–1.9 metres by 2100
The federal Department of Climate Change's November 2009 climate update reports estimates of a 0.5–2 metre rise by 2100
A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in December found that global average sea levels are likely to rise by between 75cm and190cm by the end of the century.

So how far could we reasonably expect sea levels to rise by 2100? As the world's oceans warm, they expand and sea-levels rise, but how quickly the loss of polar ice sheets will add to the rise is difficult to estimate, principally because ice-sheet and sea-ice dynamics are not sufficiently well understood, and they are subject to non-linear (rapid and unexpected) changes, such as is occurring with sea-ice in the Arctic. The question is no longer whether the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets (WAIS) are losing mass (they are!) but if and when they pass tipping points for large, irreversible ice mass loss, and how fast that will occur.
Recent research by Blancon et. al published in Nature in 2009 examining the paleoclimate record shows sea level rises of 3 metres in 50 years due to the rapid melting of ice sheets 120,000 years ago. Mike Kearney, of the University of Maryland, said it's "within the realm of possibility" that global warming will trigger a sudden collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which could lead to a rapid increase in sea levels like that predicted by the study.
Given the catastrophic failure to date of global climate policy-making (Copenhagen outcome =4-degree rise by 2100), big sea level rises are on the way for the sort of temperature increases now on the table. NASA climate science chief James Hansen wrote in New Scientist that:

Oxygen isotopes in the deep-ocean fossil plankton known as foraminifera reveal that the Earth was last 2°C to 3°C warmer around 3 million years ago, with carbon dioxide levels of perhaps 350 to 450 parts per million. It was a dramatically different planet then, with no Arctic sea-ice in the warm seasons and sea level about 25 meters higher, give or take 10 meters.

Even more compelling, Professor Eelco Rohling of University of Southampton says:

Even if we would curb all CO2 emissions today, and stabilise at the modern level (387 parts per million by volume), then our natural relationship suggests that sea level would continue to rise to about 25 metres above the present.

Then on 13 January this year, New Scientist published this story showing calculations that the Pine Island glacier in the West Antarctic has likely passed its tipping point, with researchers estimating that this one glacier alone could add a quarter of a metre to sea levels by 2100:

Major Antarctic glacier is 'past its tipping point'

A major Antarctic glacier has passed its tipping point, according to a new modelling study. After losing increasing amounts of ice over the past decades, it is poised to collapse in a catastrophe that could raise global sea levels by 24 centimetres.
Pine Island glacier (PIG) is one of many at the fringes of the West Antarctic ice sheet. In 2004, satellite observations showed that it had started to thin, and that ice was flowing into the Amundsen Sea 25 per cent faster than it had 30 years before.
Now, the first study to model changes in an ice sheet in three dimensions shows that PIG has probably passed a critical "tipping point" and is irreversibly on track to lose 50 per cent of its ice in as little as 100 years, significantly raising global sea levels.
The team that carried out the study admits their model can represent only a simplified version of the physics that govern changes in glaciers, but say that if anything, the model is optimistic and PIG will disappear faster than it projects.
Richard Katz of the University of Oxford and colleagues developed the model to explore whether the retreat of the "grounding line" – the undersea junction at which a floating ice shelf becomes an ice sheet grounded on the sea bed – could cause ice sheets to collapse.
....
The model suggests that within 100 years, PIG's grounding line could have retreated over 200 kilometres. "Before the retreating grounding line comes to a rest at some unknown point on the inner slope, PIG will have lost 50 per cent of its ice, contributing 24 centimetres to global sea levels," says Richard Hindmarsh of the British Antarctic Survey, who did not participate in the study.
This assumes that the grounding line does eventually stabilise, after much of PIG is gone. In reality, PIG could disappear entirely, says Hindmarsh. "If Thwaite's glacier, which sits alongside PIG, also retreats, PIG's grounding line could retreat even further back to a second crest, causing sea levels to rise by 52 centimetres." The model suggests Thwaite's glacier has also passed its tipping point.

.... and now comes a new report in Science that an undersea ridge that may have once helped slow the loss of the Pine Island glacier is no longer doing so...

Antarctic Glacier Off Its Leash

An unmanned autonomous submarine has discovered a sea-floor ridge that may have been the last hope for stopping the now-accelerating retreat of the Pine Island Glacier, a crumbling keystone of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, researchers announced at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union.
An unmanned autonomous submarine has discovered a sea-floor ridge that may have been the last hope for stopping the now-accelerating retreat of the Pine Island Glacier, a crumbling keystone of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The ridge appears to have once protected the glacier, but no more. The submarine found the glacier floating well off the ridge and warmer, ice-melting water passing over the ridge and farther under the ice. And no survey, underwater or airborne, has found another such glacier-preserving obstacle for the next 250 kilometers landward.
The Pine Island and adjacent Thwaites glaciers are key to the fate of West Antarctic ice, says glaciologist Richard Alley of Pennsylvania State University, University Park, in an e-mail. And West Antarctica is key to how fast and far sea level will rise in a warming world. "To a policymaker, I suspect that the continuing list of [such] ice-sheet surprises is not reassuring," he writes.
At the meeting, glaciologist Adrian Jenkins of the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge and colleagues described how the instrument-laden Autosub3 cruised for 94 hours along 510 kilometers of track beneath the floating portion of the Pine Island Glacier in January 2009. The sub found a 300-meter-high ridge across the ocean cavity formed by the floating end of the glacier. Deep, warmer water was overtopping the ridge and passing through the gap between floating ice and the ridge top on its way to melting back more of the glacier. That gap has been growing, Jenkins said, perhaps since the 1970s. An aerial photograph from 1973 shows a bump in the ice where the ridge is now known to be, suggesting that the ice was then resting on the ridge and no warmer water could have been getting through.
Although the last physical obstacle to continued melting and retreat of the Pine Island Glacier has been breached, the ice's fate remains murky, says glaciologist David Holland of New York University in New York City. That's because glaciologists aren't sure what got the glacial retreat started in the first place, he notes. It wasn't the greenhouse simply warming the ocean, researchers agree. Instead, shifting winds around Antarctica in recent decades may have driven warmer waters up to the ice and dislodged it from its perch on the ridge. But what caused the winds to shift? Global warming? The ozone hole? Random variability? Glaciologists—and policymakers—would like to know.

... which makes Fred Pearce's prediction (which we quoted in Climate Code Red two years ago, page 47) look spot on....

Another vulnerable place on the West Antarctic ice sheet is Pine Island Bay, where two large glaciers, Pine Island and Thwaites, drain about 40 per cent of the ice sheet into the sea. The glaciers are responding to rapid melting of their ice shelves and their rate of ﬂ ow has doubled, whilst the rate of mass loss of ice from their catchment has now tripled. NASA glaciologist Eric Rignot has studied the Pine Island glacier, and his work has led climate writer Fred Pearce to conclude that ‘the glacier is primed for runaway destruction’. Pearce also notes the work of Terry Hughes of the University of Maine, who says that the collapse of the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers — already the biggest causes of global sea-level rises — could destabilise the whole of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Pearce is also swayed by geologist Richard Alley, who says there is ‘a possibility that the West Antarctic ice sheet could collapse and raise sea levels by 6 yards [5.5 metres]’, this century.

So much for 0.8 metres being a risk-averse foundation for sea-level rise planning and policy-making.
And for a fuller discussion on the current research on PIG and recent observations, there is a great overview, "Is Pine Island Glacier the Weak Underbelly of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet?" at RealClimate, from November 2009.

David Spratt
24 January 2010

So the planet stopped warming, says Rupert

2012-02-02T12:59:00.000+11:00

This week, Rupert Murdoch's "The Australian" dutifully reported as news an opinion piece, from 16 denier–scientists, claiming that the world had stopped warming, which had originally been published in Murdoch's Wall Street Journal as No Need to Panic About Global Warming: There's no compelling scientific argument for drastic action to 'decarbonize' the world's economy.
     Stopped warming! Our one-graphic response (above) to this absurdity is this chart from the UK Met office. Many have responded to the WSJ story, including Graham Readfearn in Crikey, Climate Progress in In Must-Read WSJ Letter, 3 Dozen Top Climate Scientists Slam Murdoch’s 16 Posers: “Dentists Practicing Cardiology”, and Peter Gleick at Forbes with Remarkable Editorial Bias on Climate Science at the Wall Street Journal.
     And the Daily Climate reports that half the authors of the Wall Street Journal opinion piece denying the Earth's warming trend have ties to the oil and gas industry.

Here is the ANU's Andrew Glikson's take on their scientific claims , a cross-post from The Conversation.

We do need drastic action on climate change: a response to the Wall Street Journal

On Friday, the Wall Street Journal published a letter from “16 concerned scientists”, telling the world we don’t need to worry so much about climate change. Unsurprisingly, the opinion piece has been picked up by outlets worldwide, including The Australian.
     In their article the authors claim the reason for their doubt about the reality of climate change is “a collection of stubborn scientific facts”. My response below relates purely to scientific points.Let us look at the facts.

No warming for a decade
The authors open by stating, “Perhaps the most inconvenient fact is the lack of global warming for well over 10 years now".
     However, this is not the case. According to NASA/GISS, the first decade of the 21st century has been the warmest on the instrumental record. Global surface temperatures in 2010 (and similar in 2005) have been the warmest on the instrumental record. From January to October 2010, global land and ocean surface temperature were significantly higher than the 20th century average of 14.1°C (see figures 1 and 2).

Figure 1: Mean global temperatures for 2001-2011 relative to 1951-1980. NASA/GISS

It is a “straw man argument” to assume global warming is a uniform process. Natural variability induced by the ENSO cycle and the 11 years sun spot cycle, superimposed on the greenhouse warming trend, results in transient reversals of warming.

Paleo-climate studies indicate that past warming trends – such as the the Younger dryas and the 8.2 kyr event – were associated with transient cold phases due to the regional effects of ice melt water, mainly in the North Atlantic.

IPCC predictions are wrong
The authors talk about “the smaller-than-predicted warming over the 22 years since the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)”. It is not clear which particular IPCC prediction the authors refer to. The Third Assessment Report (2001) projects mean global temperature rise in mainly in the range of 0.5-0.8C above 1950-70.

Figure 2: Global land temperature estimates, smoothed by a 12-month moving average. The temperature anomaly is the difference between the estimated temperature and the mean in the period 1950-1980 for each temperature series. The Berkeley Earth data were randomly chosen from 30,964 sites that were not used by the other groups. Berkeley Earth

According to NASA/GISS, the National Climatic Data Center and the Hadley Climatic Research Unit, the rate of warming during 1975-2010 (+0.5 to +0.6C, 0.014 to 0.017C/year) has been one to two orders of magnitude faster than the rates of temperature rise during the ends of previous ice ages.
     An independent study of global temperature data from 1880AD onward by the Berkeley Group concluded “Our biggest surprise was that the new results agreed so closely with the warming values published previously”.
     Following the emission of more than 350 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide since 1750AD (more than half the original atmospheric carbon inventory of 590 billion tonnes), the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂ has reached about and over 2 ppm/year. This is a rate unprecedented in geological history, bar during times of mass extinction of species related to global volcanism and asteroid impacts.
      Comprehensive paleo-climate studies establish atmospheric CO₂ levels of 500+/-50 ppm as the approximate upper stability limit of the Antarctic ice sheet (although some studies suggest values of ~600 or 800 ppm). The current level of 392 ppm is similar to late Pliocene level of ~400 ppm, when temperatures were ~2°C to 3°C higher than present and sea levels were 25 metres (+/-12m) higher than present. CO₂ levels higher than 350ppm are considered by Hansen and others to be dangerously high.

Warming, or extreme weather?
The authors say “those promoting alarm have shifted their drumbeat from warming to weather extremes”. Those concerned about climate change have always been concerned with weather extremes. Extreme weather events are expected from heat waves and, as sea temperatures rise, from floods and storms. These events have doubled in frequency during 1998-2008 as documented by Munich Re-Insurance (see Figure 3).

Figure 3: Change in the frequency of extreme weather events. Munich Re-Insurance

Carbon dioxide is not pollution

The authors claim “… CO₂ is not a pollutant. CO₂ is a colorless and odorless gas, exhaled at high concentrations by each of us, and a key component of the biosphere’s life cycle.”This statement reflects a misconception regarding the physiological and biological effects of changing concentrations of elements such as carbon, oxygen, sulfur or phosphorous. A corollary would be the human lungs: a small increase in CO₂ can lead to hypercapnia; a rise in oxygen beyond critical thresholds result in oxygen toxicity.
Improvements in plant photosynthesis do not depend exclusively on availability of CO₂ but on the availability of water and on temperatures. The intensification of the hydrological cycle associated with global warming, resulting in floods in some regions and in droughts in other, is hardly conducive for agriculture.
Perhaps the most amazing statement made by the authors concerns the evolution of plants under high CO₂ levels in the geological past. They state, “Plants do so much better with more CO₂ that greenhouse operators often increase the CO₂ concentrations by factors of three or four to get better growth. This is no surprise since plants and animals evolved when CO₂ concentrations were about 10 times larger than they are today.”
The evolution of plants and animals occurred over millions of years, when species had time to evolve and adapt to changing atmosphere and hydrosphere conditions. When changes occur at rates to which plants and animals cannot adapt, such as the current rate of 2 ppm CO₂/year, unprecedented in geological history, mass extinction of species becomes a reality.

This article was originally published at The Conversation. Read the original article.

Insights from addictions recovery applied to climate change

2012-01-29T14:05:00.000+11:00

Chris Johnstone

For many years I worked as an addictions specialist in the UK health service, part of my role being to run groups exploring how to prevent relapses. One day the topic was ‘dealing with crisis’. John, a middle aged man, started the group by saying “I’m not sure I need to be here, as I don’t really have any crisis in my life”. Just a few weeks previously, John had been told he might only have a few months left to live if he carried on drinking. The life-threatening emergency of his alcoholic liver disease didn’t seem to have sunk in.

Over the last thirty years, each decade has been warmer than the last and predictions made years ago of a rise in weather related disasters have, tragically, been proved correct. Yet in spite of record-breaking heat waves, droughts, wildfires, storms and floods, the proportion of people that have no concerns at all about global warming rose in US-based Gallup polls from 12% in 1991 to 28% twenty years later.

RELATED POSTS
• The real climate message is in the shadows. It’s time to shine the light.
• Carbon tax pitch misses the mark: it’s the climate, stupid!

When I see figures like these, I think of John. I think also of how insights from health psychology and addictions recovery can be usefully applied to the challenge of communicating about climate change.
     With both climate science and health-behavior change, there are a range of ways that life-preserving responses to disturbing information get blocked. Significant here are the deliberate disinformation campaigns funded by those with commercial vested interests. For example, internal memos from tobacco companies prove they knew quite early on of the health risks of smoking, yet they still paid public relations firms to systematically cast doubt on research findings showing these risks.
     Many of the public relation companies who misled the public about smoking have been doing the same thing with climate change. When we talk about people being hooked on habits and closed to information, there is a societal dimension to this too.
     Even when warnings are clearly and accurately presented, there are further barriers to the information getting through. If people are attached to the habitual consumption of a substance, they tend to react defensively to suggestions that they should cut down or go without. Heavy coffee drinkers, for example, have been shown to be much more suspicious than non-coffee drinkers of research showing health risks of coffee consumption. Think how much more attached we are, as a society, to fossil fuel use than coffee.
     The scariness of a message can have effects in opposite directions. On the one hand, fear alerts us to danger and can motivate change. In addictions recovery, crisis can become a turning point when the alarm it generates is experienced as ‘hitting rock bottom’. However crisis isn’t always recognized as a wakeup call – sometimes it becomes just another step in a continued downward spiral. The way we think about fear, and our response to it, makes a crucial difference here.
     If fear is believed to be a bad or harmful thing that we need to protect ourselves from, fear management becomes more important than danger recognition. One way to reduce fear, in the short-term at least, is to avoid looking at things that frighten us. Disturbing information simply gets screened out, turned away from or not believed. This is how John, my client, could be so close to death but not recognize a crisis in his life. Psychological defense mechanisms like this help explain why, when the problems associated with global warming are getting worse, significant numbers of people still report having no concerns at all about the subject. They are ‘masking rock bottom’ rather than hitting it.
     A concept from addictions recovery that is useful here is the principle of ‘raising rock bottom’. We don’t have to wait for a devastating crisis before we can be jolted into awareness and decide to change. If we notice our concerns earlier on and take them seriously, this generates motivation to take preventative action. One of the most successful treatments in the addictions field is based on this simple principle of supporting people to hear themselves voicing their own concerns. Called Motivational Interviewing, it backed by an impressive evidence base. How can this approach be applied with issues like climate change?
     About five years ago, Rob Hopkins, founder of the Transition Movement, and I spent a day with Professor Stephen Rollnick, co-developer of the Motivational Interviewing (MI) approach, to explore this question. Professor Rollnick’s advice was ‘move from information giving to information exchange’. In medical consultations, MI involves a shift away from lecturing people about the risks of health-damaging habits, to instead being more interested in hearing how they see the risks and what concerns they might have about these. The stance is of being a ‘motivational listener’ who makes space for people to make their own argument for change.
     I got a chance to apply this motivational listening approach when asked to facilitate an audience discussion after a screening of The Age of Stupid, a film set in a possible future devastated by climate change. There were about fifty of us, and I suggested that we divide into pairs and take turns hearing each other describe the parts of the film we found most memorable, and also how we were left feeling after watching it. Then we gathered in one large circle and went round hearing each person’s response to the film. It was gripping. Everyone had something to say, and hearing our memorable moments was like having an action reply that reinforced key messages in the film.
     When we’re confronted with disturbing information, there is a process to fully taking it in. At first we might be aware only at a detached intellectual level, but have not fully accepted it or taken on board what it means. It is as though we’ve ingested the information but not yet digested it. Hearing ourselves talk it through, and experiencing our emotional reactions, are both ways we come to terms with disturbing news and accept its reality. Talking with each other after the film showing was a way the group digested what it had heard.
     So I’m wondering how often people get the chance to hear themselves voice their concerns about climate change. And I’m wondering what would happen if fear and alarm were welcomed as healthy reactions that show we’ve noticed something dangerous is going on. Climate change communication is often seen in terms of presenting information. The insight from health psychology is that perhaps it needs to include motivational listening too.

Dr Chris Johnstone is a UK based specialist in behavioral medicine who trains doctors in motivational interviewing. His next book, co-authored with Joanna Macy, is "Active Hope – how to face the mess we’re in without going crazy" (New World Library, published March 2012). He has a website at www.chrisjohnstone.info

Climate in the media to 29 January 2012

2012-01-29T13:07:00.004+11:00

PICKS OF THE WEEK---------------

Shale Gas a Bridge to More Global Warming
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=106531
Stephen Leahy, IPS, 24 January 2012
Hundreds of thousands of shale gas wells are being "fracked" in the United States and Canada, allowing large amounts of methane, a highly potent greenhouse gas, to escape into the atmosphere, new studies have shown.
AND...
Abbott backs coal seam gas over coal mining
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2012/s3415749.htm
George Roberts, ABC PM, January 25, 2012
The Federal Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott, has cautiously backed the controversial coal seam gas or CSG industry.

AS...
Energy firms set sights on 'super fracking'
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Energy%20firms%20sights%20super%20fracking/6066403/story.html
David Wethe, Bloomberg, January 28, 2012
As regulators and environmentalists study whether hydraulic fracturing can damage the environment, industry scientists are studying ways to create longer, deeper cracks in the earth to release more oil and natural gas.

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Solar PV to reach parity in half of the world’s countries by 2015
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/solar-buzz-suntech-obama-lift-hopes-for-solar
Giles Parkinson, ReNewEconomy, 26 January 2012
Zhengrong Shi has delivered the most bullish forecast to date for the China solar PV market, predicting that 4 gigawatts – or even more – of solar PV could be deployed in the country in 2012.

Sen. Bernie Sanders Pledges to Introduce Legislation Repealing 'Absurd' Fossil Fuel Subsidies
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/287040/20120124/sen-bernie-sanders-pledges-introduce-legislation-repealing.htm
Ashley Portero, IBT, January 24, 2012
U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (Independent-Vt.) pledged Tuesday to introduce legislation to repeal federal tax breaks and subsidies to the profitable fossil fuel industry, declaring at a Capitol Hill rally that "the most profitable corporations in the world do not need subsidies from the American people."

Green energy investment soars to $260bn
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jan/12/green-energy-investment-increases
Suzanne Goldenberg, Guardian, 12 January 2012
New data shows worldwide funding of green energy projects rose by 5% last year
AND
Here comes the sun
http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/2012/jan/24/guardian-weekly-letter-27-january

As emissions rise, we may be heading for an ice-free planet
http://www.climatecodered.org/2012/01/as-emissions-rise-we-may-be-heading-for.html
Andrew Glikson, CCR, 24 January 2012
At last December’s meeting of the American Geophysical Union, James Hansen attracted the most attention when he stated: "If you doubled CO₂, which practically all governments assume we’re going to do, that would eventually get us to the ice-free state".

ENERGY&INNOVATION--------------

With new efficiency record, thin film solar expected to compete with coal by 2015 without subsidies
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/first-solar-sets-module-efficiency-record
Giles Parkinson, ReNewEconomy, 21 January 2012
First Solar’s new solar PV efficiency record went largely un-noticed in the local media last week, but it represents a major step forward for the march towards price parity for solar technology.

Science on wind turbine illness dubious, say experts
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/energy-smart/science-on-wind-turbine-illness-dubious-say-experts-20120123-1qe98.html
Ben Cubby, SMH, January 24, 2012
Fears that wind turbines make people sick are ''not scientifically valid'', and the arguments mounted by anti-wind farm campaigners are unconvincing, according to confidential briefings given to the state government by NSW Health.

The hot CleanTech projects of 2012
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/the-hot-cleantech-projects-of-2012
Giles Parkinson, RenewEconomy, 25 January 2012
As the experts pointed out in the 2012 cleantech predictions story we published on RenewEconomy on Tuesday, this year shapes up as a critical one for many emerging technologies in Australia.

The shocking truth about wind power
http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/shocking-truth-about-wind-power
Fiona Armstrong, Cliumate Spectator, 25 January 2012
A new paper investigating the health impacts of wind farms has found no evidence of associated increases in illness, reiterating the fact that the shock of the new should not be confused with a new kind of shock.
AND
Science on wind turbine illness dubious, say experts
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/energy-smart/science-on-wind-turbine-illness-dubious-say-experts-20120123-1qe98.html

FirstEnergy to retire 6 power plants, incur charges
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL4E8CQ5FX20120126
Reuters, January 26, 2012
FirstEnergy will retire six coal-fired power plants by September as the U.S. environmental regulator tightens regulations, and the diversified energy company said it will take a related charge.

Green Cement
http://www.loe.org/shows/segments.html?programID=12-P13-00004&segmentID=7
Living on Earth, 27 January 2012
Concrete is one of the most widely used materials in the world. It also accounts for five percent of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions. But researchers at Drexel University are trying to change that with a cool new cement that doesn’t need heating, just mixing.

COMMUNICATIONS--------------

Better Understanding and Improving Climate Communications
http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/2012/01/better-understanding-improving-climate-communications/
Bud Ward, Yale forum, January 25, 2012
Some 100 social scientists, communications experts, and climate scientists convene at University of Michigan’s Erb Institute/Union of Concerned Scientists session to better understand, improve climate communication dialogue.

Evolutionary Psychology of Climate Change
http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/01/09/evolutionary-psychology-of-climate-change/
Brian Kateman, Columbia blogs, 9 January 2012 | 1.9.2012 at 2:15pm | 8 Comments
Why haven’t we rallied our collective power to mitigate climate change? Daniel Gilbert, a professor of psychology at Harvard University and the author of “Stumbling on Happiness,” argues that the human brain is poorly equipped to respond to global warming.

POLITICS&POLICY--------------

How to write a charity email
http://googledigook.com/2012/01/23/17-things-i-have-learnt-about-charity-email-copy

Bid to out the money behind the voice against climate change
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/bid-to-out-the-money-behind-the-voice-against-climate-change-20120126-1qjfp.html
Graham Readferan, SMH, 27 January 2012
A climate change sceptic think-tank with close ties to Australia could have one of its key financial backers unmasked after a court challenge later today.

Minister used his own numbers on carbon cost
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/minister-used-his-own-numbers-on-carbon-cost-20120124-1qfrn.html
Josh Gordon, The Age, January 25, 2012
Energy Minister Michael O'Brien ignored his own department's economic modelling on the impact of the federal carbon tax, instead relying on his own calculations to claim Victoria would be hit ''first and hardest''.

Slacking off on climate is just not cricket
http://www.abc.net.au/environment/articles/2012/01/23/3412123.htm
Ian Lowe, ABC Environment, 23 Jan 2012
It was five weeks ago - on 12 December, to be precise - that Australian cricket was in terminal decline, having lost to New Zealand on home soil for the first time in 25 years.

Obama makes strong call for clean energy — oh, and drilling and fracking too
http://grist.org/politics/obama-makes-strong-call-for-clean-energy-oh-and-drilling-and-fracking-too
Lisa Hymas, Grist, 25 Jan 2012 12:53 AM
Clean energy rocks. Nice, deserving people get jobs at wind-turbine plants. Solyndra-style investments are critical. Oil-industry subsidies suck. Energy efficiency is an economic engine. We need to drill, baby, drill. And we need to frack, baby, frack.

U.K. Lawmakers Threaten to Ground Non-Carbon Compliant Planes
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-26/u-k-lawmakers-threaten-to-ground-non-carbon-compliant-planes.html
Mathew Carr, Bloomberg, Jan 26, 2012
Airlines using U.K. airspace should be grounded if they refuse to comply with the European Union’s greenhouse-gas emissions-trading system, according to a panel of lawmakers.

SCIENCE&IMPACTS--------------

'Concretized beaches hasten erosion'
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/goa/Concretized-beaches-hasten-erosion/articleshow/11596064.cms
Paul Fernandez, TNN, 23 January 2012
Quicker heating up of the coastal belt due to the capacity of concretized stretches to soak up heat contributes to enhanced beach erosion as the winds and waves batter the coast harder, a scientist has stated.

Sunshade Geoengineering More Likely to Improve Global Food Security, Research Suggests
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120122152615.htm
ScienceDaily. Jan. 22, 2012
Carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of coal, oil, and gas have been increasing over the past decades, causing Earth to get hotter and hotter.

Injecting Sulfate Particles Into Stratosphere Won't Fully Offset Climate Change
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120125142212.htm
ScienceDaily, Jan. 25, 2012
As the reality and the impact of climate warming have become clearer in the last decade, researchers have looked for possible engineering solutions -- such as removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere or directing the sun's heat away from Earth -- to help offset rising temperatures.

Insight: rise in Arctic shrubs likely to increase vulnerability of permafrost
http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/48383
ERW, 23 January 2012
Over the last few decades, the number of Arctic shrubs has increased, apparently driven by a warming climate. Continued strong warming is projected and it is possible that the Arctic is on the cusp of a major vegetation transition from grassy tundra to shrubland.

Arctic Temperatures Continue Rapid Rise as 2011 Breaks Record Set in 2010
http://www.wwfblogs.org/climate/content/arctic-temperatures-continue-rapid-rise-2011-breaks-record
Nick Sundt, WWF, 20 January 2012
NASA yesterday (19 January 2012) released data showing that last year temperatures in the Arctic rose beyond the record established in 2010 -- setting a new record for 2011. News of the record Arctic temperatures follows a series of alarming developments related to the Arctic in recent months.

First report on UK climate impact
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16730834
David Shukman, BBC News, 26 January 2012
Climate change this century poses both risks and opportunities, according to the first comprehensive government assessment of its type.

Animals can't keep up with climate change
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/animals-cant-keep-up-with-climate-change-6292874.html
Paul Bignell, The Independent, 22 January 2012
Study of 11,000 bird and butterfly species shows many are at risk

As emissions rise, we may be heading for an ice-free planet

2012-01-24T20:34:00.002+11:00

An ice-free world isn’t impossible – even though it seems the stuff of science fiction.— Alistair Knock

by Andrew Glikson

Last December’s meeting of the American Geophysical Union featured three of the world’s leading climate scientists: James Hansen (NASA’s chief climate scientist), Elco Rohling (National Oceanography Centre, Southampton) and Ken Caldeira (Stanford School of Earth Science). But it was Hansen who attracted the most attention when he stated:

If you doubled CO₂, which practically all governments assume we’re going to do, that would eventually get us to the ice-free state (and) We would be sending our climate back to a state we haven’t adjusted to as a species.

Reaching ice-free-Earth conditions due to the addition of a few hundred parts per million CO₂ may sound like a science fiction story. But Hansen’s statement is consistent with the natural laws of physics (the Planck, Stefan-Boltzmann and Krichhoff laws of black body radiation), with atmospheric science and with the geological record.

A planet’s surface temperature is determined by the infrared absorption/emission characteristics of its atmosphere, determined by greenhouse molecules (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, O₃). Earth’s surface conditions (including the atmospheric pressure, temperature and gases in its atmosphere) occupy an intermediate position between those of Mars and Venus. Advanced life on Earth is controlled by the presence of water and by the carbon and oxygen cycles.

Figure 1: CO2 with time. Andrew Glikson (with thanks to D Royer)

Studies of the evolution of the terrestrial atmosphere based on multiple proxies (carbon isotopes in phytoplankton and in fossil soils, plant leaf stomata pores, boron isotopes, boron/calcium ratios) confirm the upper stability boundary of the Antarctic ice sheet at about 500+/-50 ppm CO₂. Other estimates suggest 615 ppm CO₂ or near-800 ppm CO₂.

The original decline in temperature from the end-Eocene (~34 million years ago) and the onset of the Antarctic ice sheet occurred when CO₂ levels declined to below ~600 ppm (as shown in Figure 1). Greenhouse gases have increased by near 40% since 1750 (from ~280 to 392 ppm CO₂, at a rate increasing to ~2.6 ppm/year by 2010). At the current rate of increase, the climate could return to greenhouse Earth conditions within 50 to 200 years.
With current emissions growing by 5.9% in 2010 (see Figure 2) and a corresponding rise of temperature by 6.2% during the last decade (see Figure 3), Earth may be committed to an ice-free state.

Figure 3: Percentage change in global average temperature since the 1860s by decade. World Meteorological Organization

Climate change projections are complicated by the extreme rates of these processes. There is no precedent for such rates in the geological record, bar major greenhouse gas release triggered by methane eruptions, volcanic eruptions and asteroid impacts.

     Further warming of the Greenland ice sheet and of the west and east Antarctic ice sheets may lead to pulses of ice-melt water which will cool adjacent ocean basins. Such pulsations occurred repeatedly in the North Atlantic Ocean around 8.2 thousand years ago (the Holocene Optimum), 12.9-11.7 thousand years ago (the “Youngest dryas” cold phase), and cold phases associated with the peak of earlier interglacials.
     The bulk of the continents continue to heat, due to a rise in greenhouse gases, feedbacks from fires, methane release from permafrost and reduction of CO₂ intake by warming oceans.
     The resultant ocean-land temperature polarity generates storms, reflected in the title of James Hansen’s book, “Storms of my grandchildren”. Similar conditions developed in November 2010 as north Siberia and Canada warmed to above 4°C relative to 1951-1980 while snow storms occurred in the North Atlantic.

Figure 4: Surface temperature Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA

The current consequences of polar temperature rises by 4°C and higher (see Figure 4) for the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets are shown in Figure 5. Between 2002 and 2008 a total of near-2500 billion tons of ice was lost while the projected rate of mass loss near-doubled over the period.

Figure 5: Ice mass changes

As atmospheric CO₂ is reaching a level unknown for the last three million years, the disconnection between science and the human response is growing. Despite warnings over the last 30 years, we are still developing global infrastructures to extract every economically accessible ton of coal, barrel of conventional or shale/sand oil and cubic meter of natural gas and coal-seam gas.

Contrarian claims by sceptics, misrepresenting direct observations in nature and ignoring the laws of physics, have been adopted by neo-conservative political parties. A corporate media maintains a “balance” between facts and fiction. The best that governments seem able to do is devise cosmetic solutions, or promise further discussions, while time is running out.
Good planets are hard to come by.

Andrew Glikson is Honorary Professor at the Geothermal Energy Centre of Excellence, The University of Queensland, and a Visiting Fellow at the Australian National University.

This article was originally published at The Conversation. Read the original article.

Climate in the media to 22 January 2012

2012-01-22T17:37:00.000+11:00

PICKS OF THE WEEK---------------

McKibben's efforts pay off as Obama kills pipeline
http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/20120118/NEWS02/120118042/McKibben-s-efforts-pay-off-Obama-kills-pipeline
Nicole Gaudiano, BFP, 18 January 2012
Vermont climate activist Bill McKibben isn’t used to environmentalists scoring a win over the oil industry. But that’s what happened Wednesday when President Barack Obama rejected a permit for the controversial Keystone XL pipeline — a project McKibben has been fighting since August.

AND
America's energy subsidy myth
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Barack-Obama-Keyston-oil-pipeline-energy-US-policy-pd20120120-QNUUT
David Sirota, Cliamte Spectator, 20 January 2012
Barack Obama's Keystone XL Pipeline decision will help drive the belief that fossil fuels are being persecuted by the government. In fact, the opposite is true.

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Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies 'could provide half of global carbon target'
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jan/19/fossil-fuel-subsidies-carbon-target
Duncan Clark, Guardian, 19 January 2012
Such a move could save the equivalent of Germany's annual emissions by 2015, says chief economist at the IEA
AND...
Fossil fuel subsidies: a tour of the data
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/datablog/2012/jan/18/fossil-fuel-subsidy
Duncan Clark, Guardian, 19 January 2012
Fossil fuels are subsidised in much of the world, causing billions of tonnes of addition CO2 emissions. Fatih Birol says ending fossil fuel subsidies could provide half the answer to solving climate change

Strong support for wind farms obscured, says CSIRO report
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/energy-smart/strong-support-for-wind-farms-obscured-says-csiro-report-20120117-1q4pj.html
Kelsey Munro, Ben Cubby, SMH, January 18, 2012
There is much stronger public support for wind farms than media coverage of the issue would suggest, because a ''vocal minority'' who oppose wind farms secure the majority of media and political attention, according to new CSIRO research.
AND
There is “No Evidence” that Wind Turbine Syndrome Exists, Concludes Expert Panel
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/01/19/407012/there-is-no-evidence-that-wind-turbine-syndrome-exists-concludes-expert-panel
Zachary Rybarczyk and Stephen Lacey, Climate Progress, 19 January 2012
If we want wind to continue growing, more turbines will need to be placed in our communities and close to our backyards. And that will inevitably cause more social friction.
AND
The war against renewable energy
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3776760.html

Why emissions need to drop off a cliff
http://www.climatecodered.org/2012/01/why-emissions-need-to-drop-off-cliff.html
David Spratt, CCR, 17 January 2011
How quickly do global greenhouse gas emissions need to drop to get back to a safe climate? It’s a pertinent question when the Australian government is making great claims for its 2011 carbon legislation, but its aim is to reduce emissions by only five per cent by 2020.

Global Temperature in 2011, Trends, and Prospects
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2012/20120119_Temperature.pdf
James Hansen, Reto Ruedy, Makiko Sato and Ken Lo, GISS NASA, 19 January 2012
2011 was only the ninth warmest year in the GISS analysis of global temperature change, yet nine of the ten warmest years in the instrumental record (since 1880) have occurred in the 21st century. The past year has been cooled by a moderately strong La Nina.
AND
NASA Sees Repeating La Niña Hitting Its Peak
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120119152001.htm

ENERGY&INNOVATION--------------

Fracking Would Emit Large Quantities of Greenhouse Gases
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=fracking-would-emit-methane
Mark Fischetti, Scientific American, January 20, 2012
"Fugitive methane" released during shale gas drilling could accelerate climate change

Uncertainty over future of HRL plant
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-01-20/uncertainty-over-future-of-hrl-plant/3783866
Gus Goswell, ABC News, 20 January 2011
There is uncertainty over the Federal Government's commitment to a new power station planned for the Latrobe Valley.

Miner facing emissions charge
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/miner-facing-emissions-charge-20120116-1q22u.html
Leonie Lamont, SMH, January 16, 2012
in what is being described as a landmark decision, the Land and Environment Court has held that one of the state's coalmines should have to pay to offset some of its greenhouse gas emissions as a condition of operation.

“Water is much more important than oil”
http://www.rtcc.org/energy/water-is-much-more-important-than-oil/
Tierney Smith, RTCC, 20 January 2012
The door has closed on this year’s World Future Energy Summit (WFES).

Creating electricity at home: the cleanest and most sensible option under the sun
http://www.smh.com.au/business/creating-electricity-at-home-the-cleanest-and-most-sensible-option-under-the-sun-20120116-1q399.html
Matthew Wright, SMH, 17 January 2012
Solar energy benefits the state by providing electricity at much cheaper rates than those of traditional sources.

GM microbe breakthrough paves way for large-scale seaweed farming for biofuels
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jan/19/gm-microbe-seaweed-biofuels
Damian Carrington, Guardian, 19 January 2012
Scientists have created a genetically engineered microbe that turns the algae into low-carbon biofuel, but must make the technique commercially viable

Shale oil and gas will help make western hemisphere self-sufficient
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jan/18/shale-oil-gas-us-energy-self-sufficient
Richard Wachman, Guardian, 18 January 2012
BP forecasts that growth in fuel sources will make North and South America self-sufficient by 2030 – but UK will still need Gulf supplies

Scotland’s Ambitious 100% Clean Energy Target by 2020
http://www.triplepundit.com/2012/01/scotlands-ambitious-100-clean-energy-target-2020/
Akhila Vijayaraghavan, Triple Pundit, January 13, 2012
One country that is really galvanizing wind energy to increase its renewable energy profile is Scotland. 2011 was an epic year for Scottish energy companies.

Growing Doubts in Europe On Future of Carbon Storage
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/17/technology/17iht-rbog-ccs17.html
Andres Cala, NYT, January 16, 2012
The European Union’s long-term energy plans to abate global warming while still burning fossil fuels hinge on proposals to capture carbon dioxide emissions and store them in deep underground rock formations. Yet weak support for the untested technology is putting Europe in the rear ranks of its development.

Cheap Beads Offer Alternative Solar-Heating Storage
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/12/111202155751.htm
ScienceDaily, Dec. 2, 2011
A cheap material that can store heat energy collected from the sun during the day that can be released slowly over night has been developed by researchers in the India.

POLITICS&POLICY--------------

Climate scientist disowned by Newt Gingrich speaks out over book spat
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jan/06/climate-scientist-newt-gingrich-book-chapter
Suzanne Goldenberg, Guardian, 6 January 2012
Katharine Hayhoe says the dumping of her chapter from Gingrich's book following rightwing pressure came as a surprise

Worse off under the carbon tax? Hardly...
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3773412.html
Stephen Koukoulas, ABC Unleashed, 16 January 2012
It's less than six months until the carbon tax comes into effect. There already has been, and no doubt will be, a kerfuffle about the impact of pricing carbon on household budgets

SCIENCE&IMPACTS--------------

A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
http://www.skepticalscience.com/a-comprehensive-review-of-the-causes-of-global-warming.html
Dana Nuccitelli, Skeptical Science, 20 January 2012
At Skeptical Science, we have several recent studies which have used a number of diverse approaches to tease out the contributions of various natural and human effects to global warming.

Fears Islanders may soon be forced out of their homes
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2012/s3408747.htm
ABC The World Today, 16 January 2012
There are concerns residents of the outer islands in the Torres Strait will soon be forced to flee their homes by encroaching seas.

Arctic methane outgassing on the E Siberian Shelf part 2 - an interview with Dr Natalia Shakhova
http://www.skepticalscience.com/arctic-methane-outgassing-e-siberian-shelf-part2.htm
John Mason, Skeptical Science, 19 January 2012
In December 2011, following a fresh flurry of sometimes conflicting media reports about methane outgassing on the East Siberia Arctic Shelf (ESAS), we decided to go and talk to the people doing the work on the ground.

China report spells out "grim" climate change risks
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/18/us-china-climate-idUSTRE80H06J20120118
Chris Buckley, Reuters, 18 January 2012
Global warming threatens China's march to prosperity by cutting crops, shrinking rivers and unleashing more droughts and floods, says the government's latest assessment of climate change, projecting big shifts in how the nation feeds itself.

Amazon Basin shifting to carbon emitter: study
http://www.dawn.com/2012/01/19/amazon-basin-shifting-to-carbon-emitter-study.html
AFP, 19 January 2012
The Amazon Basin, traditionally considered a bulwark against global warming, may be becoming a net contributor of carbon dioxide (CO2) as a result of deforestation, researchers said on Wednesday.

Offsetting Global Warming: Molecule in Earth's Atmosphere Could 'Cool the Planet'
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120112142232.htm
ScienceDaily, Jan. 12, 2012
Scientists have shown that a newly discovered molecule in Earth's atmosphere has the potential to play a significant role in off-setting global warming by cooling the planet.

Mekong Delta reels under repeated disasters
http://vietnamnews.vnagency.com.vn/Sunday/Features/219830/mekong-delta-reels-under-repeated-disasters.html
Pham Hoang Nam, Vietnam News, 17 January 2012
Known as the nation's rice basket, blessed with fertile soil and favorable climatic conditions, the Cuu Long (Mekong) Delta has been at the forefront of Viet Nam's amazing agricultural transformation in the Doi moi (renewal) period.

Black Carbon Deposits On Himalayan Ice Threaten Earth's 'Third Pole'
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091214173658.htm
ScienceDaily (Dec. 14, 2009) — Black soot deposited on Tibetan glaciers has contributed significantly to the retreat of the world's largest non-polar ice masses, according to new research by scientists from NASA and the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

How long do greenhouse gases stay in the air?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jan/16/greenhouse-gases-remain-air
Carbon Brief and Duncan Clark, Guardian, 16 January 2012
This Q&A is part of the Guardian's ultimate climate change FAQ

What Can Be Done to Slow Climate Change?
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120112193442.htm
ScienceDaily, Jan. 12, 2012
A new study led by a NASA scientist highlights 14 key air pollution control measures that, if implemented, could slow the pace of global warming, improve health and boost agricultural production.

Global Warming: ‘Revenge of the atmosphere’
http://summitcountyvoice.com/2012/01/14/global-warming-revenge-of-the-atmosphere
Bob Berwyn, SCCV, 14 January 2012
With Arctic sea ice shrinking fast — losing 40 percent of its mass between 1980 and 2007 — widespread effects on climate and weather are inevitable, according to Jennifer Francis, with Rutgers University Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences.

Implications of the Arctic permafrost thaw

2012-01-19T18:20:00.002+11:00

by Ian Dunlop, cross-post from Club of Rome News

Of the many “Elephants in the Room” in the climate change debate, none are larger than the potential release to atmosphere of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane contained in the Arctic permafrost. Preliminary findings from the latest research, discussed at the American Geophysical Union’s annual conference in San Francisco in December 2011, highlighted the extreme risks that humanity is now exposed to from global warming.
The Arctic has been warming 2-3 times faster than the global average, one consequence being that the volume of Arctic sea ice has reduced dramatically, by around 80% in summer since 1979, far faster than expected. If current trends continue, the Arctic may be sea-ice-free in summer by around 2015, and all year by around 2030. This would likely lead to further positive warming feedback as the ice albedo effect diminishes, accelerating melt of the Greenland ice sheet, ultimately contributing several metres of sea level rise.

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Such warming would also accelerate thawing of the Arctic permafrost, which contains twice as much carbon as the atmosphere. Releasing that carbon would accelerate global warming past tipping points which create a climate far less conducive to human evolution. The permafrost, along with clathrates on the seabed, contain large quantities of methane, with a warming potential twenty-five-times greater than CO2.
CO2 and methane release in the Arctic has been observed for some time, but the latest findings suggest this may be accelerating rapidly. The AGU discussion prompted a flurry of scientific commentary on the implications – whether the acceleration is real, whether the cause is anthropogenic or natural, whether the release mechanism might be abrupt or gradual. It is too early to understand the full implications. The complete scientific analysis of the latest evidence will be available later this year, but the preliminary findings should be a wake-up call to us all.

In risk management terms, these observations emphasise, as never before, the need for emergency action to reduce human carbon emissions. If permafrost thawing is allowed to accelerate, we may have little means of stopping it. Over time, this would be catastrophic, probably leading to global mean temperature increasing well over 4 degrees C compared to pre-industrial levels, with a global carrying capacity of 1 billion people rather than the current 7 billion.
Our inaction today may well be guaranteeing such an outcome, which is why emergency action is needed now. This highlights the total inadequacy and empty rhetoric of the so-called “ Platform for Enhanced Action” agreed at the Durban UNFCCC Climate Conference last December. Waiting to negotiate an agreement by 2015, for implementation from 2020, meaning it will have little effect for years afterwards, when human emissions are at an all-time high accelerating faster than ever, the permafrost thaw is most likely accelerating rapidly and none of the supposed technological fixes for human emissions, such as carbon capture and storage, are working, is nothing less than suicidal.

"Waiting to negotiate an agreement by 2015, for implementation from 2020, meaning it will have little effect for years afterwards, when human emissions are at an all-time high accelerating faster than ever, the permafrost thaw is most likely accelerating rapidly and none of the supposed technological fixes for human emissions, such as carbon capture and storage, are working, is nothing less than suicidal."

The critical flaw is our inability, or refusal, to address risk and uncertainty realistically. The scientific community gives increasingly urgent warnings on the mounting evidence of anthropogenic warming and the need for rapid emission reductions. At the same time they rightly set out the uncertainties involved, but those uncertainties relate less to the fundamentals, far more to the impact of the warming (for example, there is no doubt warming is occurring, the uncertainty is whether it will be a 4 degree C or a 7 degree C temperature increase). Officialdom chooses to ignore these warnings, preferring policy based on “political realism”, shorthand for hoping the problem will go away. Business, supposedly the experts on risk management, should take leadership, but have abrogated any responsibility, given that realistic action will require a fundamental redesign of the economic system, undermining established vested interests. The result is that nobody is seriously addressing the strategic risks to which we are exposed.
Conventional politics is incapable of handling this issue. Leadership is totally lacking within the political and corporate worlds; global and national institutions are failing here, as they are failing to address the financial crisis – on both counts economic growth is the problem, not the solution. The priority for 2012 must be to develop new mechanisms which, with community support, go around conventional politics and vested interests. Climate change is now a far bigger risk than any financial crisis and yet the real effort devoted to managing it is miniscule in comparison.

Ian Dunlop was formerly an international oil, gas and coal industry executive. He chaired the Australian Coal Association in 1987-88, chaired the Australian Greenhouse Office Experts Group on Emissions Trading from 1998-2000 and was CEO of the Australian Institute of Company Directors from 1997-2001. He is Chairman of Safe Climate Australia, a Member of the Club of Rome and Fellow of the Centre for Policy Development.

Why emissions need to drop off a cliff

2012-01-17T19:15:00.005+11:00

How quickly do global greenhouse gas emissions need to drop to get back to a safe climate? It’s a pertinent question when the Australian government is making great claims for its 2011 carbon legislation, but its aim is to reduce emissions by only five per cent by 2020. And even that is an illusion, because a significant share will come from buying offsets in the international market.
And when proposed new and expanded coal mines in Australia are tallied up, they will add about 1.75 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide annually – about eleven times what the Australian government estimates will be saved by the carbon tax legislation. By 2020 or soon thereafter, Australia will be exporting nearly twice as much carbon dioxide as is Saudi Arabia today, as Guy Pearce explains.

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So what really needs to be done? The first consideration is when global emissions peak, and start to drop. At the moment, we are not close to peaking. The Global Carbon Project shows that global emissions are rising, faster and faster. Between 2000 and 2007, they rose at around 3.5 percent a year; by 2009 it was up to 5.6 percent. In 2010, we hit 5.9 percent growth, a record.

The second question is what is a safe temperature increase. Whilst the world has talked for decades about 2 degrees Celsius (or around 450 parts per million carbon of carbon dioxide*), scientists increasing recognise that it is far from safe. This was recognised in the landmark 2009 “Safe Boundaries” paper which essentially found that the boundary was no more than 350 parts per million, or around 1 degree of global warming. (* assumed at equilibrium, so that the short-lived greenhouse gases are not relevant).
But as James Hansen and his colleagues have established, it is hard to argue that anything above the Holocene maximum (of around 0.5 degrees above the pre-industrial temperature) can preserve a safe climate, and that we have already gone too far. The notion that 1.5 degrees C is a safe target is out the window, and even 1 degree looks like an unacceptably high risk. Our post on Hansen’s views has been the most visited post on this site.

Unfortunately little work is done on emission reduction scenarios for less than 2 degrees, but Hansen provides one in his paper “The Case for Young People and Nature: A Path to a Healthy, Natural, Prosperous Future”.

The left hand image (a) charts what happens to atmospheric CO2 if fossil fuel emissions are cut six per cent per year beginning in 2012, and 100 billion tonnes of carbon reforestation drawdown occurs in the 2031-2080 period. Chart (b) shows atmospheric CO2 with “business-as-usual” emission increases until 2020, 2030, 2045, and 2060, followed by five per cent per year emission reductions.
Hansen notes that:

Figure (a) shows that 100 GtC reforestation results in atmospheric CO2 declining to 350 ppm by the end of this century, provided that fossil fuel emissions decline by 6% per year beginning in 2013. Figure 5 (b) shows the effect of continued BAU fossil fuel emission (just over 2% per year) until 2020, 2030, 2045 and 2060 with 100 GtC reforestation in 2031-2080.
The scenario with emission cuts beginning in 2020 has atmospheric CO2 return to 350 ppm at about 2300. If the initiation of emissions reduction is delayed to 2030 or later, then atmospheric CO2 does not return to the 350 ppm level even by 2500.
The conclusion is that a major reforestation program does permit the possibility of returning CO2 to the 350 ppm level within this century, but only if fossil fuel emission reductions begin promptly.

What is significant here is that achieving a 350ppm target requires re-afforestation, or some similar means, of actively drawing down carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

If the focus is on the (unsafe) 2-degree target, this chart (below) from a presentation made by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber to the 4 degrees or more: Australia in a hot world conference in Melbourne in 2011 shows that delay in reaching peak emissions makes the task more challenging. If emissions do not peak till 2020 (red line), then the maximum reduction rate is 9 per cent per year.

Most engaging of all is this chart (below) from Kevin Anderson's “Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change“, which has been a very popular link from this site. It is drawn from a peer-reviewed paper by Anderson and Alice Bows, “Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emission scenarios for a new world”.

In understanding the implications of this chart, I can’t go past this summary from David Roberts at Grist:

The longer we wait to start shrinking emissions, the faster we’ll have to shrink them to stay under budget. Here’s a visualization of what that means — some sample reduction curves with varying peak years (the four different lines are based on the four main IPCC scenarios). As you can see, if we delay the global emissions peak until 2025, we pretty much have to drop off a cliff afterwards to avoid 2 degrees C. Short of a meteor strike that shuts down industrial civilization, that’s unlikely.
     How about 2020? Of the available scenarios for peaking in 2020, says Anderson, 13 of 18 show hitting 2 degrees C to be technically impossible. (D’oh!) The others involve on the order of 10 percent reductions a year after 2020, leading to total decarbonization by 2035-45.
    Just to give you a sense of scale: The only thing that’s ever pushed emissions reductions above 1 percent a year is, in the words of the Stern Report, “recession or upheaval.” The total collapse of the USSR knocked 5 percent off its emissions. So 10 percent a year is like … well, it’s not like anything in the history of human civilization.
    This, then, is the brutal logic of climate change: With immediate, concerted action at global scale, we have a slim chance to halt climate change at the extremely dangerous level of 2 degrees C. If we delay even a decade — waiting for better technology or a more amenable political situation or whatever — we will have no chance.

Of course, as Hansen shows, with large-scale drawdown, we can do better than that. But the science behind these charts, and the political consequences, are not ones that we will likely hear from any of the major players in the climate policy debate.
Not from Australian Conservation Foundation CEO Don Henry, not from Mitch Hook of the Minerals Council, not from Climate Change minister Greg Combet, or his opposition shadow Greg Hunt. The truth is just too difficult. And if you don't have the capacity to define and explain a problem, your chances of articulating a solution are zero.
Perhaps its easier to give up on even 2 degrees and start talking about 3 degrees instead, as is the case with "reduction wedges" pioneer Robert Socolow. And that is really disturbing if you understand what 3 degrees means.

David Spratt

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Climate in the media to 15 January 2012

2012-01-15T17:11:00.001+11:00

PICKS OF THE WEEK---------------

Much ado about methane
http://wwwp.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2012/01/opinion-methane-release
David Archer, Daily Climate, Jan. 9, 2012
The climate change story has many frightening pieces. Methane venting from oceans and the Arctic has grabbed the public's imagination lately, but it is not the scariest part of the tale.

Study: Simple measures could reduce global warming, save lives
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/study-simple-measures-could-reduce-global-warming-save-lives/2012/01/12/gIQAtcKztP_story.html
Brian Vastag and Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post, January 13, 2012
Simple, inexpensive measures to cut emissions of two common pollutants will slow global warming, save millions of lives and boost crop production around the world, an international team of scientists reported Thursday.

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Back issues here
Twitter http://twitter.com/djspratt

Health Promotion Journal of Australia Special Issue: Climate Change & Health Promotion
http://healthpromotion.org.au/journal/journal-downloads/article/1-hpja/443-h
As a commitment to building knowledge and promoting debate about the links between climate change and health promotion, the Australian Health Promotion Association has agreed to make this special issue freely available for the month of January 2012.

Resistance and Hope at a Time of Climate Emergency
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/01/13-6
Nick Buxton, Common Dreams, 13 January 2012
While there were no shortage of lofty announcements at the UN climate talks, it took the words of a 21 year-old student from Maine to speak the truth about the climate crisis and puncture the bubble of deceit and delusion in the latest gathering in Durban, South Africa in December 2011.

Boom And Doom: Revisiting Prophecies Of Collapse
http://www.4thmedia.org/2012/01/12/boom-and-doom-revisiting-prophecies-of-collapse/
Debora MacKenzie, New Scientist, 7 January 2012
At the beginning of the 1970s, a group of young scientists set out to explore our future. Their findings shook a generation and may be even more relevant than ever today.
AND NEW BOOK
Saving a Million Species: Extinction Risk from Climate Change
Edited by Lee Hannah, University of California;Island Press, USA
http://www.publish.csiro.au/nid/18/pid/6906.htm
AND THE CLOCK TICKS...
Doomsday clock ticks closer to midnight
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-01-11/doomsday-clock-ticks-closer/3767426

Should We Work Towards A 3°C World, If A 2°C Target Is Really Out of Reach?
http://www.treehugger.com/climate-change/should-we-really-aim-3c-world-if-2c-out-reach.html
Matthew McDermott, Treehugger, January 9, 2012
It's only very slightly pessimistic to say that Durban threw hope of keeping temperature rise below the critical +2°C threshold, above which lots of natural systems are projected to become unhinged.
WARNING: The notion that 3 degrees is OK is seriously crazy... see
http://climatecodered.blogspot.com/2010/09/what-would-3-degrees-mean.html

Tourism relies on jet-setters, but travel is destroying attractions
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Tourism+relies+setters+travel+destroying+attractions/5994411/story.html
Joe Kelly, Vancouver Sun, 13 January 2012
Kitzbühel is an international ski resort in the Austrian Alps, renowned for hosting the Hahnenkamm downhill race, one of the most famous and most treacherous ski races on the World Cup circuit. As a major tourism destination, Kitzbühel draws people from all over the world who want to experience the mountain first-hand. The valuable tourism dollars fuel a vast economic engine for the surrounding region. Sadly, the resort is dying a slow death. Within two decades, there won’t be enough snow to support skiing on the legendary slope.

ENERGY&INNOVATION--------------

Biomass and Electricity (2-part series)
http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/09/biomass-and-electricity-part-one/
http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/10/biomass-and-electricity-part-2/
Matthew L. Wald, NYT blogs, 9-10 January 2012
Burning natural gas releases less heat-trapping carbon dioxide than burning coal does because it has only about half as much carbon per unit of energy.
AND
Biofuels Land Grab: Guatemala's Farmers Lose Plots and Prosperity to "Energy Independence"
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=biofuels-land-grab-guatemala

Green energy investment soars to $260bn
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jan/12/green-energy-investment-increases
Suzanne Goldenberg, Guardian, 12 January 2012
New data shows worldwide funding of green energy projects rose by 5% last year

China Increases Target for Wind Power Capacity to 1,000 GW by 2050
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2012/01/china-increases-target-for-wind-power-capacity-to-1000-gw-by-2050
Liu Yuanyuan, RWW, January 5, 2012
The National Energy Administration of China has set a series of development goals for the country's renewable energy sector during the 12th Five-year Development Plan, which shows that by 2015 the country's wind power capacity will reach 100 GW, based on the current capacity of 40 GW.
BUT
China's renewables surge outweighed by growth in coal consumption
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jan/12/china-renewable-energy-coal-consumption
Jonathan Watts, Guardian, 12 January 2012
China sees major increases in solar, wind and hydropower, while officials struggle to cap growth in carbon emissions from coal

Energy Efficiency is for Real, Energy Rebound a Distraction
http://co2scorecard.org/home/researchitem/21
Shakeb Afsah, Kendyl Salcito and Chris Wielga, CO2 Scorecard, Jan 11, 2012
Energy efficiency is an over-rated policy tool when it comes to cutting energy use and CO2 emissions—that’s the basic message promoted by the US think tank the Breakthrough Institute (BTI), and amplified in major news outlets like the New Yorker and the New York Times. We refute this policy message and show that the BTI, as well as its champions in the media, have overplayed their hand, supporting their case with anecdotes and analysis that don’t measure up against theory and data.

Study finds coal plants generate nearly 3/4ths of US carbon emissions
http://www.manufacturing.net/news/2012/01/epa-power-plants-main-global-warming-culprits
Dina Cappiello, Associated Press, 12 January 2012
The most detailed data yet on emissions of heat-trapping gases show that U.S. power plants are responsible for the bulk of the pollution blamed for global warming

US Fracking Moratorium Urged as Doctors Call for Health Study
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/01/09/bloomberg_articlesLXJW7C0YHQ0X.DTL
Alex Wayne, Bloomberg News, January 12, 2012
The U.S. should declare a moratorium on hydraulic fracturing for natural gas in populated areas until the health effects are better understood, doctors said at a conference on the drilling process.

China's carbon price a worry
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/chinas-carbon-tax-price-a-worry/story-fn59niix-1226239371053
Sarah-Jane Tasker, The Australian, January 09, 2012
The Australian coal industry remains confident of continuing strong sales to China despite the world's biggest carbon pollution emitter planning a carbon tax from 2015.

We can’t win the clean energy race without government investments
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/01/10/401698/clean-energy-race-government-investments/
Richard W. Caperton, Climate Progress, Jan 10, 2012
Budget deficits drove the conversation in Washington in 2011 with the daily news dominated by government shutdown threats, the “super committee,” continuing resolutions, and arcane budgeting practices.

Inpex confirms $33bn Top End gas project
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-01-13/130112-inpex-announcement/3770578
ABC News, 13 January 2012
Japanese gas company Inpex and its French partner Total have confirmed they will proceed with their planned $33 billion Ichthys gas project in Darwin and off the coast of Western Australia.

POLITICS&POLICY--------------

Baillieu hides carbon tax documents
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/baillieu-hides-carbon-tax-documents-20120109-1prv0.html
Clay Lucas, The Age, January 10, 2012
The Baillieu government has been accused of using ''laughable'' excuses to block the release of economic modelling it used to attack the Gillard government's carbon tax.

It is the coal barons, not activists, who threaten society
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/it-is-the-coal-barons-not-activists-who-threaten-society-20120109-1pro1.html
Shaun Murray, The Age, January 10, 2012
Anti-coal activists pose a political threat. That's why we're being spied on.

Network News Coverage of Climate Change Collapsed in 2011
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/01/09/400795/network-news-coverage-of-climate-change-collapsed-in-2011
Joe Romm, Climate Progress, Jan 9, 2012
Last week Climate Progress reported on the loss of interest in the story of the century by the major print media.

U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Makes Climate Change a Top Priority
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/01/11/402262/us-agency-for-international-development-usaid-makes-climate-change-a-top-
Zachary Rybarczyk, Climate Progress, Jan 11, 2012
Developing countries (including China) are expected to account for more than 90% of global energy growth in the next 30 years.

SCIENCE&IMPACTS--------------

Great charts of record-smashing U.S. extreme weather in 2011
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/01/11/402460/2011-unprecedented-rains-wet-dry-extremes-global-warming

Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast (good set of online resources)
http://forecast.uchicago.edu/

Glacier time-lapse images reveal 'epochal change'
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/story/2012/01/13/pol-glaciers-time-lapse-environment.html
Max Paris, Environment Unit, CBC News, Jan 13, 2012
Nothing is quite as damning or convincing as photo evidence.

Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: “An Emerging Hockey Stick”
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/01/10/401186/climate-change-sea-level-rise-hockey-stick
Peter Sinclair, Climate Progress, 10 January 2012
Since we have such an active community of armchair oceanographers and spreadsheet Glaciologists here, I thought it would be useful to speak to the real thing, the people who actually spend time on the ocean, on the ice sheets, do the measurements, and come back to share that knowledge with us.
AND
Rising sea levels endanger the Delta
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/594181
Luoise Saramt, Egypt Independent, 10 January 2012
The Nile Delta region produces no less than 65 percent of the Egypt’s total agricultural production. It is also part of the country’s most densely populated regions; half of Egypt’s ever expending population lives in this triangle of fertile land, a zone identified as one of the world’s most vulnerable to climate change
AND
Document future history with the king tide
http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2012/01/12/3407022.htm
Ross Kay, ABC News, 12 January, 2012
The history of the future will be documented next weekend as the summer king tide rolls onto Wide Bay shores.

12 Simple(ish) Ways To Quickly Reduce Global Warming Two-Thirds by 2050
http://www.treehugger.com/climate-change/12-simpleish-ways-quickly-reduce-global-warming-two-thirds-2050.html
Matther McDermott, Treehugger, January 13, 2012
Apologies for the green movement circa 2007 title, but this time it's actually apt—not like all those posts about how unplugging your phone charger will save the planet.

Global Warming Caused By Greenhouse Gases Delays Natural Patterns Of Glaciation
http://www.eurasiareview.com/08012012-global-warming-caused-by-greenhouse-gases-delays-natural-patterns-of-glaciation/
Eurasia Review, January 8, 2012
Unprecedented levels of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere are disrupting normal patterns of glaciation, according to a study co-authored by a University of Florida researcher and published online Jan. 8 in Nature Geoscience.

Arctic methane outgassing on the E Siberian Shelf part 1 - the background
http://www.skepticalscience.com/arctic-methane-outgassing-e-siberian-shelf-part1.html
John Mason, Skeptical Science, 15 January 2012
Reports of extensive areas of methane - a powerful greenhouse gas - bubbling up through the shallow waters of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) have been doing the rounds in the media recently, with some articles taking the apocalyptic approach and others the opposite. So what IS going on in the far North?

Global Warming May Trigger Winter Cooling
http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2012/01/global-warming-may-trigger-winte.html
Sid Perkins, Science, 12 January 2012
It seems counter-intuitive, even ironic, that global warming could cause some regions to experience colder conditions. But a new study explains the Rube Goldberg-machine of climatic processes that can link warmer-than-average summers to harsh winter weather in some parts of the Northern Hemisphere.

Australian coal’s expansion plans make a mockery of government’s carbon tax claims

2012-01-09T13:31:00.000+11:00

David Spratt

The expansion of Australian coal mining will add about 1.75Gt (gigatonnes) of carbon dioxide annually to the atmosphere – about 11 times what the Australian government estimates will be saved by the carbon tax legislation that recently passed Parliament.

That’s Guy Pearse speaking at Woodford on 31 December. He says that even the emissions from smaller players have a staggering impact, for example:

the annual emissions from Aston/Whitehaven’s new mines, or of QCoal's mines will each be greater than all the CO2 saved by all the hybrid cars ever sold world-wide;
The new mines of the relatively small Jellinbah Coal add nearly 100 times as much CO2 as is saved by all he household solar panel installations in Australia.

As Padding Manning reported in the Fairfax business press on 21 November, the coal industry is hoping to double or triple export volumes in the next five to 10 years, to as much as 1 billion tonnes a year, up from about 300 million tonnes this year:

The accumulated emissions of those coal exports, over a mine life of 30 years, would be roughly 20 gigatonnes,assuming the carbon content of coal is 70 per cent.

Using the carbon budget approach advocated by our Climate Commission, says Climate Code Red co-author David Spratt, the world's total emissions must be no more than 175 billion tonnes between 2012 and 2050, if we are to keep warming to 2 degrees.

It is hard to imagine little Australia will get to chew up 11 per cent of the whole world's carbon budget for the next four decades, so it can increase coal exports. ''We have a choice between a billion tonnes of year of coal exports, or a climate with the food and water security fit for the worlds people,'' says Spratt. ''We can have one or the other, but not both.’’

Those were back of the envelope figures I did in hurry, and now Pearse has provided a lot more analysis, and included gas exports, to come up with a similar figure of 1/8th of the global carbon budget, of around 12%.

Pearse’s speech is available here. In a note to his e-list, Pearse says:

I gave a talk at Woodford last Saturday that may be of interest. It focussed on the ever increasing scale of the coal boom in Australia, the key players and the emissions implications.

I had not previously seen someone tally the mine production and life of mine data to enable an assessment of the cumulative Gt CO2 likely to come from Australia’s coal industry by 2050. Having done so, albeit a little roughly, I estimate that Australian coal exports will generate around 75Gt CO2 between now and 2050 – perhaps another 5Gt will come from domestic coal use, and 8-10 Gt from LNG if the expansion of coal seam gas proceeds. In rough terms, between now and 2050, Australian fossil fuel could account for about 1/8th of the remaining carbon budget for 2 degrees C. This highlights the global significance of the coal boom now unfolding in Australia. I have also tried to break the Australian coal rush down to explain the CO2 emissions company by company in terms more readily understandable for the general public. So, for example:

The proposed GVK/Hancock mines in the Galilee Basin are equivalent to a 6% increase in the global car fleet (another 63 million cars);
the Waratah mines (excluding Carmichael East -- yet to be quantified) are like increasing international aviation by 1/3rd;
the new Xstrata mines are like doubling Australia’s coal fired power stations;
the Adani mine (just one project) is like doubling Queensland’s emissions;
the proposed Mejin mine is like doubling the emissions of 60 small countries;
the new Peabody mines in Australia almost equate to adding the CO2 emissions of Pakistan,
the Bandanna mines are like doubling Australia’s agricultural emissions.
Even the emissions from smaller players have a staggering impactor example:
the annual emissions from Aston/Whitehaven’s new mines, or of QCoal's mines will each be greater than all the CO2 saved by all the hybrid cars ever sold world-wide;
The new mines of the relatively small Jellinbah Coal add nearly 100 times as much CO2 as is saved by all he household solar panel installations in Australia.

Tallied up, the new/expanded coal mines in Australia add about 1.75Gt of CO2 annually – about 11 times what the Australian government estimates will be saved by the carbon tax legislation that recently passed Parliament. By 2020 or soon thereafter, Australia is exporting nearly twice as much CO2 as is Saudi Arabia today. If these numbers are not already an underestimate, as I believe they probably are, they will soon be. New mines are being announced ever month or two—quickly rendering CO2 calculations redundant

Needless to say, it’s hard to see how this sort of expansion in coal production is consistent with any effective global climate change response.

That is a beautiful understatement. When the government's carbon tax draft legislation was released in mid-2100 we said that it was a compromise between players with different, and often opposing interests, and is far from being as ambitious and science-driven as the community climate action movement understands is necessary.

Statements from the prime minister that Australia's coal industry will continue to expand are frightening and suggest that some in the Labor government have chosen not to understand the depth and urgency of the climate change challenge. Real action on climate means winding down coal exports, and ensuring that no new coal mines are opened.

A large gap remains between political will and the scientific realities, and the scheme's targets must be lifted over time, together with an industry plan for skills, jobs and investment to build the clean, renewable energy economy. The national carbon reduction targets must rise rapidly, so as to respond appropriately and urgently to what the climate science is telling us.

Climate in the media to 8 January 2012

2012-01-08T11:55:00.000+11:00

PICKS OF THE WEEK---------------

Climate Cognitive Dissonance: The “Profound Contradiction” Between Science and Markets on the Road to 10°F Warming
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/12/21/393713/climate-cognitive-dissonance-science-markets
David Roberts, Grist, 21 December 2011
Earlier this month, Nicholas Stern — respected U.K. economist and author of the famed Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change — cast a spotlight on what he calls a “profound contradiction at the heart of climate change policy.”

Cherry-picking contrarian geologists tend to obscure scientific truth
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/cherry-picking-contrarian-geologists-tend-to-obscure-scientific-truth/story-e6frgd0x-1226233605954
Mike Sandiford, The Australian, December 31, 2011 12:00AM
Gina Rinehart notoriously claims she has never met a geologist who believes "adding more CO2 to the atmosphere will have any significant effect on climate".

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Environment world review of the year: '2011 rewrote the record books'http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/dec/22/environment-2011-year-review
John Vidal, Guardian, 22 December 2011
The ecologically tumultuous year saw record greenhouse gas emissions, melting Arctic sea ice, natural disasters and extreme weather – and the world's second worst nuclear disaster
AND
The Big Climate Stories of 2011
http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/2012/01/the-big-climate-stories-of-2011/
AND
2011: Year of Natural Disasters (Infographic)
http://www.livescience.com/17769-2011-record-natural-disasters-infographic.html

Why libertarians must deny climate change, in one short take
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2012/jan/06/why-libertarians-must-deny-climage-change
George Monbiot, Guardian, 6 January 2012
I must applaud Matt Bruenig's summing up of the inherent conflict between libertarianism and environmental issues

Carbon Time Bomb in the Arctic: New York Times Print Edition Gets the Story Right
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/12/19/392242/carbon-time-bomb-in-arctic-new-york-times-print-edition-gets-the-story-right/
Joe Romm, Climate Orogress, 19 December 2011
NY Times science reporter Justin Gillis has just published an excellent overview article, “As Permafrost Thaws, Scientists Study the Risks.”
AND
Leaders of Arctic Methane Project Clarify Climate Concerns
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/27/leaders-of-arctic-methane-project-clarify-climate-concerns

Australian coal’s expansion plans make a mockery of government’s carbon tax claims
http://www.climatecodered.blogspot.com/2012/01/australian-coals-expansion-plan-make.html
David Spratt, code red blog, 2 January 2012
The expansion of Australian coal mining will add about 1.75Gt (gigatonnes) of carbon dioxide annually to the atmosphere – about 11 times what the Australian government estimates will be saved by the carbon tax legislation that recently passed Parliament.

Murdoch Press Coverage of Aussie Carbon Price So Negative in 2011, “It’s Fair to Say They’ve Campaigned Against It”
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/01/05/398594/murdoch-press-carbon-price-negative-campaigned-against-it
Stephen Lacey, Climate Progress, Jan 5, 2012
I was struck by a recent analysis from Daily Climate showing a substantial drop in the number of stories covering climate change in 2011. In spite of the dramatic increase in extreme weather events and the white-knuckled political tension around government investments in energy, there was still a 20% drop in coverage of climate-related issues last year.
AND
Climate coverage down again in 2011
http://wwwp.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2012/01/climate-coverage-2011

AFP spies targeting green activists
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/afp-spies-targeting-green-activists-20120106-1pogq.html
Philip Dorling,The Age, January 7, 2012
The Resources and Energy Minister, Martin Ferguson, has secretly pushed for increased surveillance by federal police intelligence officers of environmental activists who have been protesting peacefully at coal-fired power stations and coal export facilities.

Climate Change and the Trillion-Dollar Disruption
http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevezwick/2012/01/05/climate-change-and-the-trillion-dollar-disruption/
Steve Zwick, Forbes, 5 January 2011
Fortunes are made and lost on “disruptive events” that seem to catch us off-guard. Deep down, however, we all know that most disruptive events aren’t so much unseen before the fact as they are ignored.

ENERGY&INNOVATION--------------

Top 10 Clean Energy Stories of 2011 (with Charts)
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/12/22/393201/top-10-clean-energy-stories-of-2011-with-charts
Stephen Lacey, Climate Progress, Dec 22, 2011
What an odd year. While businesses around the world were making record level investments in renewables and efficiency, a growing number of conservative politicians and members of the American media punditry — lead by the outrageously ignorant “reporting” by Fox News — have been foolishly projecting (even cheering on) the demise of the sector.

Lighting up on Solar Power
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=106327
Naimul Haq, IPS, Dec 29, 2011
The sun never shone brighter on rural Bangladesh with low power solar systems transforming the lives of tens of millions of marginalised rural people who are unconnected to the national grid.

World's largest solar plant powers up
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/green-living/worlds-largest-solar-plant-powers-up-6283799.html
Alasdair Fotheringham, The Independent, 01 January 2012
Spanish venture is as big as 210 football pitches and has 600,000 mirrors. But there's a dark side

POLITICS&POLICY--------------

Study: Does enduring extreme weather make you vote liberal?
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/sciencefair/post/2011/12/severe-weather-global-warming-environment-laws-vote-liberal/1
Doyle Rice, USA Today, 30 December 2011
On the heels of a disastrous weather year in the USA, and with the long presidential campaign season looming, a new study finds that people who have endured extreme weather events are more likely to support environmental legislation, even if it means restricting individual freedoms.

The Debunking Handbook Part 1
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Debunking-Handbook-Part-1-first-myth-about-debunking.html
The Debunking Handbook is a guide to debunking myths, by John Cook and Stephan Lewandowsky. Although there is a great deal of psychological research on misinformation, unfortunately there is no summary of the literature that offers practical guidelines on the most effective ways of reducing the influence of misinformation. This Handbook boils down the research into a short, simple summary, intended as a guide for communicators in all areas (not just climate) who encounter misinformation. The Handbook will be available as a free, downloadable PDF at the end of this 6-part blog series

Big Environmental NGOs: The End of Incrementalism in 2012?
http://tobywebb.blogspot.com/2011/12/big-environmental-ngos-end-of.html
US environmental NGOs, along with other, more globally minded 'green' and conservation-minded NGOs, have been poorly led in recent years. They've blown a series of chances to help businesses change using a nuanced approach. Their approach been too cut and dried, too 'with you not against you' in ideology. It was never as simple as that.

Proposals for reducing carbon dioxide emissions must balance with development needs
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2011-12/plos-pfr121911.php
Eureka alert, 21 December 2011
Efforts to combat climate change should take into account the development levels of different countries when negotiating agreements, according to a study published in the Dec. 21 issue of the online journal PLoS ONE.

Why is it so easy to save the banks – but so hard to save the biosphere?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2011/dec/16/durban-banks-climate-change
George Monbiot, Guardian, 16 December 2011
Agreements to bail out banks happen in days – but despite some good progress at Durban, we still don't have a legally binding deal to bail out the planet

Developed world failing on climate funds pledge, says Bangladeshi minister
Fiona Harvey, Guardian, 2 January 2012
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jan/02/climate-change-funds-bangladesh-moni
Dipu Moni criticises 'dismal' efforts to deliver billions of pounds in aid to help poorer countries cope with environmental change

Time to get corporate cash out of Congress
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2012/jan/05/time-to-get-corporate-cash-out-of-congress
Bill McKibben, TomDispatch/Guardian, 5 January 2012
I've seen enough of how Big Oil operates in Washington to know that moneyed influence is poisoning American democracy

Preparing for apocalypse: 'It's a ton of fun'
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/weekend/2012/0107/1224309929282.html
Sylvia Thompson, Irish Times, January 7, 2012
Most of us are a little worried about what lies ahead, but members of the Dark Mountain Project believe that civilisation is about to collapse, that the Green movement has failed, and that we should be preparing to live in a changed world In some places people will start to move back to agriculture and villages, and there'll be civil unrest

Another Year Goes By and We're No Closer to Solving Climate Change
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/12/01/another-year-goes-by-and-were-no-closer-to-solving-climate-change/250814/
Auden Schendler, the Atlantic, 3 January 2012
Events of 2011 show that no matter how solid the science, some people will never accept that humans are causing global warming.

SCIENCE&IMPACTS--------------

Acid test for 'evil twin' of climate change
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/acid-test-for-evil-twin-of-climate-change-20120107-1pp64.html
Lloyd Jones, The Age, January 7, 2012
They call themselves Team Acid and are trawling the Southern Ocean with fine nets to see if the shells of tiny marine snails are thinning because of ocean acidification.

"The world is perfectly on track to six degrees Celsius increasing the temperature" says IEA Fatih Birol
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/01/04/379694/iea-world-11-degree-warming-school-children-catastrophic
Joe Romm, Climate Progress, Jan 4, 2012
The International Energy Agency was once a staid and conservative organization that people ignored because it was staid and conservative.

Widespread beach erosion leaves surf clubs in deep water
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/widespread-beach-erosion-leaves-surf-clubs-in-deep-water-20120102-1pidz.html
Jonathan Swan, Brisbane Times, January 3, 2012
Lifesaver Andrew Jones has watched the ocean swallow his beach. During the past 18 months, from the porch of the Taree Old Bar Surf Club, he has seen about ''60 to 70 metres of beach frontage'' disappear.
AND
Environmentalists hope to turn the tide against use of sea walls
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-san-francisco-strand-20120102,0,1646485.story
Tony Barboza, Los Angeles Times, January 2, 2012
The longtime practice of dumping huge rocks and chunks of concrete along the coastline to stop erosion is coming under fire from those who favor letting the shoreline retreat naturally. San Francisco's efforts to protect Ocean Beach is the latest battleground.
AND
Planned retreat: Getting out of the way of the sea
http://www.newsworks.org/index.php/local/item/32056
Denis Devine, Newsworks, January 2, 2012
In a region that loves its summers at the Shore, a lot of phrases become familiar: beach tag, salt-water taffy, tear down. Here's one you may not know, but may begin to hear as storms and rising ocean levels continue to batter the coast: "planned retreat." And its cousin: "rolling easements."
AND
20 inches to disaster: U.S. coasts unprepared for higher seas
http://www.grist.org/climate-change/2012-01-03-are-u.s.-coasts-ready-for-sea-level-rise
AND
Belgium fears for its fragile coastline
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jan/03/belgium-fears-for-fragile-coastline
Jean-Pierre Stroobants, Guardian, 3 January 2012
Storms and rising sea levels could wreak havoc as defences that protect beaches and dykes are overwhelmed

'Dramatic' loss of harp seals amid warming: study
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hsCyhCVoTEZAyNZE73rWRGFpSGNw
AFP, 8 January 2012
Harp seal pups off the coast of eastern Canada are dying at alarming rates due to a loss of winter ice cover, according to US scientists who questioned on Wednesday if the population will be able to recover.

Perceptions of Climate Change: The New Climate Dice
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2012/20120105_PerceptionsAndDice.pdf
New draft paper by Hansen et al on the effect of global warming on the frequency of climate extremes.

The Ghost of Climate Yet to Come
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/12/24/394877/ghost-of-climate-yet-to-come
Joe Romm, Climate Progress, Dec 24, 2011
Irreversible does not mean unstoppable: “Why show me this, if I am past all hope?”

‘No, climate sensitivity is not smaller, it is higher than we thought’ – because organic aerosol feedbacks mask warming
http://www.bitsofscience.org/climate-sensitivity-organic-aerosol-feedbacks-warming-4479/
Rolf Schuttenhelm, Bits of Science, December 21, 201
It serves to show individual climate sensitivity studies are never conclusive but add up bits of fresh understanding to an already enormous pile of data and knowledge.

Could Public Health Benefits Make Combating Climate Change Free?
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=could-public-health-benefits-make-combating-climate-change-free
David Biello, Scientific American, December 21, 2011
Climate change threatens human health, therefore reducing greenhouse gas emissions may help our medical well-being, too

Melting Glaciers Mean Double Trouble for Water Supplies
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/12/1112-melting-glaciers-mean-double-trouble-for-water-supplies/
Rick Lovett, National Geographic News, December 20, 2011
New research shows that as ice disappears, overall evaporation speeds up.

Professor Kevin Anderson - Climate Change: Going Beyond Dangerous

2011-12-22T20:13:00.000+11:00

This is the best presentation we have seen all year. It's a must watch!

Professor Kevin Anderson - Climate Change: Going Beyond Dangerous

View another webinar from DFID

Climate in the media 21 December 2011

2011-12-21T17:06:00.000+11:00

PICKS OF THE WEEK---------------

2011 Science News of the Year: Environment
http://www.sciencenews.org/view/feature/id/336997/title/2011_Science_News_of_the_Year_Environment
Science News, 1 December 2011

Why big energy wants to kill the LRET
http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/why-big-energy-wants-kill-lret
Giles Parkinson, Climate Spectator, 16 December 2011
Ever heard of the merit order effect? Readers of this column may be familiar with it, because it is emerging as a key issue in the Australian electricity sector, and a flashpoint between the established fossil fuel generators and the new wave of renewable energy technologies, and a conflict between short term profits and long term gains.

Twitter http://twitter.com/djspratt
Read the archive of weekly media summaries at http://lists.topica.com/lists/carbonequityproject/read

The brutal logic of climate change
http://www.grist.org/climate-change/2011-12-05-the-brutal-logic-of-climate-change
David Roberts, Grist, 5 December 2011
The consensus in American politics today is that there's nothing to be gained from talking about climate change.
AND
The brutal logic of climate change mitigation
http://www.grist.org/climate-policy/2011-12-08-the-brutal-logic-of-climate-change-mitigation
David Roberts, Grist, 8 December 2011
Over the past five years a wealth of analyses have described very different responses to what, at first sight, appears to be the same question: What emission-reduction profiles are compatible with avoiding "dangerous" climate change?

Coalmine a 'threat to global warming target'
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/coalmine-a-threat-to-global-warming-target-20111218-1p0sv.html
David Wroe, SMH, December 19, 2011
The development of coal ''mega-mines'' in central Queensland such as the massive China First project will destroy the world's chance of keeping global warming to 2 degrees, Greenpeace says.

NASA: Climate Change May Bring Big Ecosystem Changes
http://steveothegreat7.blogspot.com/2011/12/nasa-climate-change-may-bring-big.html
JPL/NASA, 14 December 2011
By 2100, global climate change will modify plant communities covering almost half of Earth's land surface and will drive the conversion of nearly 40 percent of land-based ecosystems from one major ecological community type - such as forest, grassland or tundra - toward another, according to a new NASA and university computer modeling study.

ENERGY&INNOVATION--------------

Carbon tax puts heat on Loy Yang
http://www.theage.com.au/national/carbon-tax-puts-heat-on-loy-yang-20111219-1p2kf.html
Lenore Taylor, The Age, December 20, 2011
Loy Yang Power has been forced to ask the corporate regulator for special permission to continue trading in the face of financial strain due to debt refinancing and the carbon tax.

Renewables need not cost more: EU energy chief
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/12/15/eu-energy-idUKL6E7NE5RZ20111215
Barbara Lewis, Reuters, 15 December 2011
A shift to renewable energy would ultimately cost around the same as business as usual and the EU needs to make progress on setting a 2030 target for greener fuel soon, the bloc's energy commissioner said.

Closing brown coal plants would help meet target
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/energy-smart/closing-brown-coal-plants-would-help-meet-target-20111214-1outt.html
Tom Arup, The Age, December 15, 2011
Almost half of Victoria's 20 per cent emissions reduction target could be met through a federal government program paying to shut heavy-emitting power plants, think tank ClimateWorks says.

Where is the Coalition on clean energy?
http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/where-coalition-clean-energy
Andrew Bray, Climate Spectator, 15 December 2011
The legislation of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation next year is looming as a test of how genuinely Tony Abbott and the Coalition support renewable energy.

Insight: Shale gas emissions similar to conventional gas
http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/48054
ERW, 12 December 2012
Several recent studies suggest that the greenhouse gas impacts of shale gas are not substantially different from those of conventional gas. Nathan Hultman and colleagues, writing in Environmental Research Letters (ERL), examine how shale gas compares to conventional gas and coal when used for electricity generation. The researchers estimate that the extraction processes for shale gas do have a small but relatively important impact on the overall lifecycle of greenhouse gas emissions.

Breakthrough could double solar energy output
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/environment/la-me-gs-breakthrough-double-solar-energy-output-20111216,0,3897047.story
Dean Kuipers, LA Times, December 16, 2011
A new discovery from a chemist at the University of Texas at Austin may allow photovoltaic solar cells to double their efficiency, thus providing loads more electrical power from regular sunlight.

Value of CSP Increases Substantially at High Solar Penetration
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/12/19/391982/value-csp-high-solar-penetration-nrel
Stephen Lacey, Climate Progress, Dec 19, 2011
With the cost of solar photovoltaic projects declining steadily and cost reductions in concentrating solar power (CSP) projects falling at a slower pace, some are calling 2011 the year that PV killed CSP. In the last year and a half, roughly 3,000 MW of CSP projects in the U.S. have been converted to PV.

POLITICS&POLICY--------------

How Big Oil beat US carbon standards
http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/how-big-oil-beat-us-carbon-standards
Geoff Dembicki, Salon/Climate Spectator, 19 December 2011
When President Barack Obama decided in early November to delay a decision on TransCanada’s Keystone XL pipeline until after the next election, America’s environmental movement celebrated one of its biggest victories in recent memory. And no doubt the news came as a blow to Alberta’s tar sands industry, and to Canada’s oft-stated dream of becoming the next global energy superpower.

Analysis: A world apart
http://wwwp.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2011/12/science-analysis
Douglas Fischer, Daily Climate, Dec. 15, 2011
In San Francisco, a massive meeting discussed climate science while in Durban, another huge gathering debated climate politics. Two roads, on opposite sides of the Earth, diverge – and send progress along at very different speedsView Demo

Misinformer Of The Year: Rupert Murdoch And News Corp.
http://mediamatters.org/blog/201112150002
Eric Boehlert & Jeremy Schulman, MMA, December 15, 2011
"This is the most humble day of my life." That's how Rupert Murdoch began his July 20 testimony to Parliament about the phone hacking and bribery scandal that had already resulted in the resignations and arrests of key News Corp. officials.

Wind farm opponents 'aided and abetted' by climate sceptic groups
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/energy-smart/wind-farm-opponents-aided-and-abetted-by-climate-sceptic-groups-20111219-1p2l6.html
Ben Cubby, Josephine Tovey, SMH, December 20, 2011
The anti-wind farm movement that is gaining influence in the NSW Parliament is being ''aided and abetted'' by climate sceptic groups and some mining figures.

Which Countries Fail the Most at Climate Leadership?
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/12/14/384955/which-countries-fail-the-most-at-climate-leadership
Arne Jungjohann, Grist/Climate Progress, 14 December 2012
Sweden, the U.K., and Germany: The European trio leads the world in fighting climate change. That’s the finding of the most recent Climate Change Performance Index [PDF], which was released this week at COP 17 in Durban. But Swedes, Brits, and Germans shouldn’t cheer just yet; even their countries are not contributing their fair share.

Plimer’s climate change book for kids underestimates science education
http://theconversation.edu.au/plimers-climate-change-book-for-kids-underestimates-science-education-4803
Ian Lowe, The Conversation, 20 December 2011
The forces of climate science denial have geared down a level. Having failed in their attempt to confuse adults and stop the parliament adopting a timid first step in response to climate change, they are now trying to get at schoolkids.

Climate sceptics might just be captive to basic emotions
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/climate-sceptics-might-just-be-captive-to-basic-emotions-20111219-1p2hl.html
Paul Biegler, The Age, December 20, 2011
Instant gratification is a powerful, but flawed, human motivator.

Australian Exceptionalism
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2011/12/08/australian-exceptionalism/
Possum Comitatus, Crikey blogs, December 8, 2011
“Australian Exceptionalism”…. let that phrase roll off your tongue. Now stop laughing for a moment if you can!

Durban climate summit was an almost total failure
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/opinion/editorial/general/durban-climate-summit-was-an-almost-total-failure/2395403.aspx
Gwynne Dyer, Canberra Times, 16 December 2011
The Durban climate summit that ended on Sunday has been proclaimed a great success. The chair, South Africa's International Relations Minister, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, told the delegates: ''We have concluded this meeting with [a plan] to save one planet for the future of our children and our grandchildren to come. We have made history.'' Don't be fooled. It was an almost total failure.

SCIENCE&IMPACTS--------------

New data on climate change in Himalayas: Earth’s ‘third pole’
http://www.ecosmagazine.com/?paper=EC11136
Ecos, 12 December 2011
The most comprehensive environmental assessment to date on the impact of climate change on snow and glacier melt in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region shows that rising temperatures are disturbing the balance of snow, ice and water, threatening biodiversity and the livelihoods of the 1.3 billion people living downstream in Asia’s major river basins.

Satellite climate data at 33 years: questioning shaky claims that downplay global warming
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/the-satellite-temperature-record-questioning-shaky-claims-after-33-years/2011/12/20/gIQAd8KE7O_blog.html
Andrew Freedman, WP blog, 20 December 2011
An interesting press release marking the 33rd anniversary of the satellite temperature record makes questionable claims dismissive of the human role in global warming. These claims are not supported by the scientific literature.

Carbon Time Bomb in the Arctic: New York Times Print Edition Gets the Story Right
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/12/19/392242/carbon-time-bomb-in-arctic-new-york-times-print-edition-gets-the-story-right
Joe Romm, Climate Progress, Dec 19, 2011
NY Times science reporter Justin Gillis has just published an excellent overview article, “As Permafrost Thaws, Scientists Study the Risks.” The piece makes clear we may be near a tipping point, citing University of Alaska scientist Vladimir Romanovsky.
ARTICLE
As Permafrost Thaws, Scientists Study the Risks
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/17/science/earth/warming-arctic-permafrost-fuels-climate-change-worries.html

Our Extreme Weather: Is Arctic Sea Ice Loss Partly to Blame?
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/12/17/391462/our-extreme-weather-arctic-changes-to-blame
Jeff Masters, Climate Progress, 17 December 2011
“The question is not whether sea ice loss is affecting the large-scale atmospheric circulation…. It’s how can it not?” That was the take-home message from Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, in her talk “Does Arctic Amplification Fuel Extreme Weather in Mid-Latitudes?”, presented at last week’s American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco.

Texas drought takes cow numbers down by 600K
http://hosted2-2.ap.org/MOSTP/6c4f1c9b30804a70bc4ae998df74d877/Article_2011-12-16-Food%20and%20Farm-Texas%20Cattle/id-e002771b93d84d1e993fb374b838f7b2
Betsy Blaney, Associated Press, 16 December 2011
The worst drought in Texas' history has led to the largest-ever one-year decline in the leading cattle-state's cow herd, raising the likelihood of increased beef prices as the number of animals decline and demand remains strong.

Must-See Hansen and Caldeira on Sensitivity: Paleoclimate Record Points Toward Potential Rapid Climate Changes
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/12/14/386806/hansen-and-caldeira-on-sensitivity-paleoclimate-record-rapid-climate-changes
Joe Romm, Climate Progress, 14 December 2012
Amounts of warming previously thought to be safe may instead trigger widespread melting of the world’s ice sheets and other catastrophic impacts, scientists said…. “There’s evidence that climate sensitivity may be quite a bit higher than what the models are suggesting,” said Ken Caldeira, a senior scientist at Stanford University’s Carnegie Institution for Science.

The next 10 years will be very unlike the last 10 years (video)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XQIxr4gRQM

The real climate message is in the shadows. It’s time to shine the light.

2011-08-30T18:24:00.000+10:00

by Daniel Voronoff

There was more than one kernel of truth in the speech made by the Shadow Minister for Communications Malcolm Turnbull at the Virginia Chadwick Foundation back in July. But the one I’d like to look at is the analogy about how not listening to the science on climate change:

…is like ignoring the advice of your doctor to give up smoking and lose 10 kilos on the basis that somebody down the pub told you their uncle Ernie ate three pies a day and smoked a packet of cigarettes and lived to 95.

Malcolm Turnbull was commenting on the perils of denialism and its toxic effect on public discourse, however, the comparison also holds a very literal and crueller truth – global warming is a threat to human health.

Just as galling as the deadly effect of denialism is the long-standing tendency of the environment movement to avoid spelling out the brutal impacts of global warming, especially its adverse health and wellbeing effects, a habit epitomised by the Australian Government’s “Clean Energy Future” campaign. For a while now we’ve been hearing that it is somehow poor, dumb and ineffective communication to discuss and elaborate the problem of global warming, its dangers and how threatening to our lives and livelihoods it is. We’re told that it’s disempowering, a turn-off, and that such ‘apocalyptic rhetoric’ is, in part, responsible for the public’s lowered inclination to consider global warming important. Sometimes we’re even told that to mention ‘carbon dioxide’ and ‘pollution’ in the same breath is a fatal cause of distraction from the one and true communication goal.

That goal, the message we ought to be on-about, is that renewable energy and energy-efficiency are new industries with immense investment and profit opportunities, which create jobs and, by default, makes our nation strong and competitive. When asked why we should put ourselves through all the trouble of rebuilding our energy system, and for that matter, the transport system, agricultural system, the built environment, etc, etc… this is the received answer. And remember: keep smiling and don’t mention the ‘nasty bits’. Although this message is clearly true, it’s painful to watch as opportunities to communicate the problem we face are lost, mainly because each moment is a rare and valuable opening to let people know, honestly, and in a way that connects with something that is precious and tangible and that everyone has, whether poor, fair or excellent: that is, their health.

A study cited in recent times in support of omitting the nasty bits is Apocalypse Soon? Dire messages reduce belief in global warming by contradicting Just-World beliefs. Its main finding, unsurprisingly, is that when you present a frightening message about global warming to people, without telling them how to address the threat, they tend to become sceptical about the threat. But it’s worth noting one of the study’s conclusions is that the “findings extend past research showing that fear-based appeals, especially those not coupled with a clear solution, can backfire and undermine the intended effects of the messages [emphasis added].”

A lot of research has gone into understanding the role of fear in motivating human behaviour, especially in the field of public health promotion (for example quit smoking campaigns), which can shed some light on this question of whether or not to address or omit the frightening truth. And, given that the Apocalypse Soon study tells us its findings are in broad agreement with the literature, I thought it might be useful to look over the finding of a meta-analysis of studies into the use of, what are known in the field as, ‘fear appeals’. In these analyses, the authors compile, compare and examine the findings of many similar studies and report on the results: the benefit being access to large sample sizes, lending strength to the evidence. But, before we go on, it’s useful to define a few terms used in the study that are common to the psychology literature.

Firstly is the understanding of ‘perceived threat,’ which is said to be made up of two facets: perceived susceptibility to the threat (how at risk you feel) and perceived severity of the threat (how harmful it’s thought to be). Secondly, fear, being an emotion, is distinct from perceived threat, a cognition, but the two are, naturally, related: the higher the threat, the greater the fear. Lastly there’s ‘perceived efficacy,’ which has two facets: self-efficacy, the belief about one’s ability to respond to a threat (yes I can do it); and response efficacy, one’s belief that the recommended response can avert the threat (it will work).

And the meta-study findings? “In sum, fear appeals appear to be effective when they depict a significant and relevant threat (to increase perceptions of severity and susceptibility) and when they outline effective responses that appear easy to accomplish (to increase perceptions of response efficacy and self-efficacy). Low-threat fear appeals appear to produce little, if any, persuasive effects… the advice to message designers is the same: A persuader should promote high levels of threat and high levels of efficacy to promote attitude, intention, and behaviour changes.”

Some other findings:

Increasing the focus on severity in fear appeals appears to produce the strongest effects on perceptions. Changes in the message variables of susceptibility, response efficacy, and self-efficacy all produce moderate effects.
Importantly, there was no support for any hypothesized negative effects from fear appeals.
Strong efficacy messages are needed to match the severity and susceptibility messages otherwise ‘fear controls’ and defensive responses kick in.

On this last point the researchers note the risk associated with messages that induce fear is that they may backfire if the audience don’t believe they’re able to effectively avert a threat. In applying these findings to climate change communications, to my mind, this risk should be evaluated in the context of other risks inherent in the current, pivotal, carbon tax pitch, and beyond. The risk we face with the present suite of messages is that without stating the problem – namely the severity of the threat and our susceptibility to it – there is no argument for change. Without stating the threat, the public mind is lead to question, why a tax for innovation and jobs when the mining industry makes jobs anyway? Imagine the anti-smoking advertisement that fails to mention mouth and lung cancer, telling the smoker they should give up a pleasurable habit of ten years because, well, they’re certain to feel better. The evidence shows this appeal just doesn’t work.

There should be no doubt about the applicability of health promotion to climate change, just go read the science. There isn’t much about global warming that doesn’t end in a fatal or morbid human consequence somewhere down the line, sooner or later. Indeed, sooner and later. And it’s precisely this point –the human health and wellbeing impacts – that should form the centre of our message. Let’s put aside the loss of the Great Barrier Reef and Kakadu National Park for a while and talk instead about heat stress, asthma, dengue fever, salmonella, drowning and third degree burns. We should tell about the economic disruption and food insecurity, and the implications of all of these for the livelihoods of our children. This is the sage advice of U.S. communications experts who’ve taken the trouble to consult with health professionals and develop a timely primer on climate change communications centred on health.

To those who argue that recourse to ‘fear appeals’ is ‘manipulative’, my answer is: manipulation is when you lie, like saying climate change is crap, or omit the truth, like not mentioning that climate change is the problem and not spelling out its effects. By contrast, openly discussing the science – which is frightening – and broadcasting our common plight to our fellow Australians, is taking responsibility for the truth. So, there are three elements that should compose the shape the direction of communications about global warming – we must be honest and upfront about:

The severity of climate change impacts and our susceptibility to those impacts.
The real adverse human impacts: the loss of life and livelihood, compounding over the generations.
The action that we can take, that millions of Australians are taking, to stop this threat, and that we can win.

CSIRO recently published a study on public attitudes and feelings about climate change. The study surveyed about 5000 people and asked, among other things, what their feelings about climate change were. Significantly, fear was the most highly rated emotion felt by the 50.4% of respondents who believed that climate change was real and human-induced. This group was most likely to be “somewhat worried” and “very worried” about climate change and tended to perceive higher levels of personal harm from climate change than respondents who thought climate change was natural or wasn’t happening. To my mind this shows, from another angle, how perceptions of threat (susceptibility to and severity of climate change) and fear may shape an opinion about the issue.

Another large survey shows that fifty-nine percent of Australian respondents thought that the region where they lived was vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, with two thirds of these respondents indicating that their location was “very” or “reasonably” vulnerable[9]. This result contrasts with that of Britons, who ranked the vulnerability of their location much lower. The researchers note that this may be due to how Australians are switched on to our continent’s natural climatic variability, and that in the words of Professor David Karoly (via Dorthea Mackellar), climate change will mean a country of more droughts and worse flooding rains[10]. Again, these survey results show that in the public mind there is a well-founded perception of climate susceptibility and severity, indicating that an honest message on this theme would reinforce common understanding.

I look forward, then, to seeing a communications campaign that kicks off with an advertisement that goes something like this:

“Good Health, Safe Climate”

A General Practitioner’s office. The Doctor sits on her desk and addresses the camera.

“As a Doctor, and a mother, I’m concerned about the health and well-being of my community. In my work I get to see the hardship that poor health can cause for people – and I get the opportunity to help my patients achieve good health. That’s why I’d like to tell you about the dangers that global warming and climate change pose to your health, and what you can do to protect yourself and your family.”

Images of people caught up in drought, catastrophic flood, bushfire and heatwave. The image of a child struggling with asthma. Doctor’s voice over:

“Scientists agree that greenhouse pollution causes global warming, making our climate change. It means more droughts, more floods, and more intense bushfires. Heatwaves will last longer, and it increases the likelihood of asthma and the spread of diseases like salmonella and dengue fever.”

Back in the Doctor’s office:

“And we now know that climate change is very likely to cause significant economic disruption, which means that our lives, and the lives of our children are at risk. But it doesn’t have to be like this.”

The Doctor is in a park. She joins a group of people. As she speaks, the camera slowly pans back revealing more and more people.

“I’d like you to join with me and millions of Australians who are standing up for good health and a safe climate. We’re taking action to stop the big polluters, by coming together and making our voices heard: by voting, letter writing, signing petitions, and talking to our neighbours and friends about this threat.”

The camera pans upwards revealing, from overhead, a large crowd spelling out: Good Health Safe Climate.

“Join us: what you do now can make all the difference.”

This isn’t the last word; it’s just the beginning, an outline of elements that should compose a broader narrative that puts the health of families, children and the populace, at the centre of the message. Here I’ve emphasised civic participation activities in the call to action, rather than a tax or jobs and renewables. This is because without empowered participation, neither the tax, nor renewables and the jobs, would even be on the agenda – nor would there be any hope of avoiding dangerous climate change.

Carbon tax pitch misses the mark: it’s the climate, stupid!

2011-07-18T18:06:00.004+10:00

First published in Crikey, 18 July 2011

by David Spratt

Can you sell people an answer, when they’re not sure of the question?

The carbon tax TV campaign confirms the government’s strategy of framing the case largely in economic terms: a "clean energy future" for investment and jobs and innovation, building Australia for the 21st century. Long gone are the days of the "great moral challenge" of our time.

The "Say yes" campaign by civil society groups exhibits the same economism: "Saying yes to a price on pollution means saying yes to investment, innovation, and new jobs based on renewable energy ... Putting a price on pollution will ... protect jobs, drive innovation in adaptation and clean energy projects and technologies ..."

The problem is that barely half the population believes climate change is real and human caused; fewer support the tax. And much of that opinion is soft: it’s one of many concerns.

The sense of urgency was lost three years ago, according to Hugh Mackay, who says that the fall in public support is not due to Gillard’s failures or even Rudd’s backflip. Mackay says the trend was evident by mid-2008, when the sense of expectation accompanying the change of government was deflated by inaction and low targets in the first six months of Rudd’s term, creating "a very critical vacuum" in which "people kind of shrugged and said well, it is not that serious after all ... It was seen as much more about a talking game than an acting game ... When we were not called upon to act, the opportunity was lost."

Yet now the pitch is: "We have this important (tax) change that you should support, because it may not make you worse off." Great. And a "clean energy future", whose need is not well enough understood. It’s a big ask to sell a "big change" without a compelling narrative as to why, in language and with a detail that, anecdotally, many do not understand, from a Prime Minister most do not trust.

The government’s messaging, and that of many NGOs, fits with a trend in both sides of US politics in following the advice of Republican pollster Frank Lunz to stop talking about climate change and the implications of failure to cut greenhouse gas emissions because they are "negatives", and sell a positive "clean energy" economic story instead.

This suggests we can have answers without being sure of the question; that people will support change that leaves them "no worse off", without understanding why. The corollary of this "no negatives" is a happy-clappy strategy in which climate action is all win-win, no pain, no problems. Just say yes.

Yet the lesson from Mackay’s analysis is unambiguous: the scientific need for action now has to be re-established.

What is missing is a compelling heart narrative about the impacts of global warming. The story is not being told of families who will live in a hot world, with more dangerous climate extremes, heat stress and ill-health, with less secure food and water supplies, and of children and grandchildren who will live less well than their parents, and may struggle to survive, unless we act right now. Nor is a story being told about how we can all can play an active, empowering part part in creating a safe climate for future generations. Shying away from the dire picture of climate change impacts takes us away what the well-understood psychology of health promotion now tells us.

A meta-analysis of research on health promotion campaigns and their outcomes found that the most successful approach is to combine a striking honesty about the problem with a message of personal efficacy: it is about you, and you are part of the solution. The study found no negative effects of messages honest about the severity and likelihood of the health impact, provided there was a clear articulation about what can be done to stop the problem. In fact, the more detail about the severity of the impact, the more effective was the message.

Peter Lewis of Essential Media says if you wish to mobilise public opinion, then "focus on the science first, second and third -- and then start talking about the impact on our carbon-exposed economy if we wait for the rest of the world to act first".

US pollster Mark Mellman says suggestions that one shouldn’t talk about global warming are "politically naive, methodologically flawed and factually inaccurate". He finds that even dire science-based warnings are an essential part of good climate messaging -- along with a clear explanation of the myriad clean energy solutions available today and the multiple benefits of those solutions.

People’s well-founded fear has its role in political messaging, as the WorkChoices campaign showed. Modern environmentalism was born from the warnings of Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring.

Asked recently about Lunz’s proposition to talk about clean, secure energy and not talk about climate change, Al Gore replied: "The scale and magnitude of the changes that are necessary to solve the climate crisis mean that all of the collateral reasons for taking these steps will not get us to where we need to go without a clear understanding of what we’re facing if we don’t act ... it’s a mistake to move that to the periphery of the conversation as so many have done ... it has to be the heart of the conversation."

The health promotion review reinforces the effectiveness of uncensored honesty about the problem combined with an empowering message about solutions and personal responsibility.

Carbon price a historic step forward, but political compromise triumphs over scientific necessity

2011-07-10T11:47:00.004+10:00

Check out: Carbon tax at a glance on Crikey

It is a historic step forward for Australia to be finally taking action to price carbon. The time for talking is over as the damaging impacts of global warming become ever more apparent. By acting to reduce emissions, the politics of delay and denial will become a historic relic.

The very existence of the legislation is due to the constant pressure and untiring work of thousands of individuals and groups in the climate movement across Australia. These people have kept the issue of climate change -- the greatest threat yet to our species -- alive in the face of powerful vested interests who deny both the science of climate change and the case for action. This is a very significant victory for Australian civil society.

However the long delay in acting makes our challenge today bigger and more urgent than ever. The aspirations of the carbon pricing scheme are low in comparison with what the science community tells us we need to do to avoid great damage to Australia's economy, our environment, and the way we live.

This legislation is a significant step forward by putting in place carbon measuring and accounting procedures across the economy. And it places new responsibilities on all those concerned about the human-induced climate disruption to ensure that the price of carbon steadily and rapidly rises so as to encourage renewable energy industries and to discourage an expansion of gas-fired power. This increasingly seems to be impossible under an ETS framework, if the European experience is any guide. A fixed and rising carbon price is the best policy.

The proposal is a compromise between players with different, and often opposing interests, and is far from being as ambitious and science-driven as the community climate action movement understands is necessary. We are concerned that too much compensation to big polluters can lock in aspects of the brown economy.

Statements from the prime minister that Australia's coal industry will continue to expand are frightening and suggest that some in the Labor government have chosen not to understand the depth and urgency of the climate change challenge. Real action on climate means winding down coal exports, and ensuring that no new coal mines are opened.

A large gap remains between political will and the scientific realities, and the scheme's targets must be lifted over time, together with an industry plan for skills, jobs and investment to build the clean, renewable energy economy. The national carbon reduction targets must rise rapidly, so as to respond appropriately and urgently to what the climate science is telling us.

Transparent governance, especially for the independent Climate Change Authority recommending future targets and carbon budgets, allows policy to be recalibrated to the science over time. An independent commission to regularly review the science, Australia's role and international developments in order to make yearly recommendations to government, provides an ongoing process of public, community engagement in climate policy.

The new independent statutory body, the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), creating whole-of-government management of $3.2 billion of renewable energy funding at arm’s length from government, is a big step forward. It represents one of several instances where the role of the independents and the Greens in negotiations has improved the outcome. Its long-term worth can be guaranteed by locking in and expanding recurrent annual funding for at least the next decade, to provide certainty for the industry regardless of the complexion of government in Canberra.

We strongly support action to start closing Australia' dirtiest coal-fired power stations, but the intention must be matched by a plan to start now, not defer and delay. This must be reinforced by a ban on the construction of any new coal generators. A transition from coal to gas electricity generation is not a path to the zero-emissions economy which we need. The level of greenhouse gases and future warming is now greater than at any time since modern humans walked this planet, so thinking we can continue greenhouse gas emissions for many decades to come is a fatal mistake.

- David Spratt and John Rice

How not to engage the community: the politics of 5 June

2011-06-25T17:44:00.002+10:00

by David Spratt and John Rice

On Sunday 5 June, a set of coordinated public rallies in support of climate action, and particularly a carbon tax, under the banner “Say Yes....”, were held in capital cities around Australia.

For many people, including climate activists, they were a disconcerting experience, in which the community was effectively taken out of these events, reduced to little more than extras providing a staged backdrop for an inordinately expensive media stunt, led by GetUp.

The events may have been public, but they had nought to do with community organising and empowerment. In many ways, they were its negation.

The rallies were nominally organised by the “Say Yes” coalition (or POP11 - Price on Pollution 2011 group of NGOs, including ACF, Greenpeace, WWF, Climate Institute, AYCC, EV, GetUp, ACTU and CANA; at one stage also known as PACC11).

But in effect, the rallies were called by GetUp (and the proposal supported by the ACTU), without consultation with, or the prior knowledge of, most of the environment/climate NGOs in the POP11 group. Some environment NGOs were opposed to the idea in the way it was proposed and with timelines involved.

That Getup should act unilaterally is unsurprising. It is consistent with what Crikey’s Bernard Keane describes as the “remorseless self-promotion and self-congratulation of GetUp” that demands that GetUp be not just a partner in events, but the leading light that makes the big moves and claims the credit, whether justified in part or not.

[And here lies a bigger question: do the branding imperatives of large NGOs, financially reliant on e-list supporters, drive them to market themselves as separate and distinct from, and of higher standing, than other NGOs and the community groups with which they profess common purpose? Is this one reason why climate advocacy is so often chronically divided and ineffective? And a reason why as a national movement the climate issue has too rarely been able to engender a public sense of unity of purpose that other movements, such as for refugee rights and peace, have been able to do, with vastly fewer resources?]

In Canberra, an event on the same day was organised outside of the GetUp/POP11 frame by a coalition of 12 local climate and environment groups, with a message around “Real action on climate change” (rather than price on pollution). It was proportionately the largest of the rallies, and generated the only story of the day with new content, based on comments made by one of the speakers, John Hewson. In tone and content, with an emphasis on funding renewables, it seemed the most pertinent to the current deliberations of the multi-party committee.

In all the other mainland cities, the events were organised by GetUp, who seemed unprepared for the task and mildly surprised that environment NGOs who had nought to do with the decision were not prepared to bust their boilers to put the GetUp/ACTU decision into effect. The organisers made little or no attempt to work with climate activists and climate action groups, in some cases being positively hostile.

In South Australia, for example, the activist umbrella group CLEAN approached the rally organisers offering assistance, requesting one speaker on the platform and saying they would organise an information table on the day. A flat “no” was given to both the speaker and information table proposals. As CLEAN distributed a flyer at the rally, AYCC members and GetUp T-shirted organisers told CLEAN activists to desist, an outrageously undemocratic stance for a public event in a public place. In Melbourne, people wearing Greens T-shirts were approached and asked to remove them.

Oh, the irony: were it not for the Greens’ balance of power in the House of Representatives, and balance of power in the Senate after 1 July, there would not be a multi-party committee, any prospects of a carbon tax, or any likelihood of it passing the Senate!

With very little time, no activist base, and some mildly pissed-off environment NGOs, the rallies were bound to be small. Posters and leaflets were printed in token quantities, and marketing of the rallies barely extended beyond social media and the e-lists of the participating organisations, some of whom did their bit but hardly pressed all the buttons. Compared to significant climate mobilisations in the past, their was no buzz in the lead-up, no community radio, no stories in local papers, no outpouring of emails encouraging friends, little on twitter, no street presence by way of posters. Just a comms flurry the day before, and thousands of automated phone bots with a pre-recorded message from GetUp CEO Simon Sheik, which may have annoyed as many people as they encouraged.

Whilst POP11 had promoted their collective capacity to mobilise many of their three million members and supporters, the rallies did little to substantiate this assertion. Organisers claimed a total attendance of “up to 45,000”; reports compiled from activists suggest 30,000 was closer to the mark.

In Melbourne, the crowd was 10,000 at most. By Melbourne standards, this is a poor show. Organisers of Walk against Warming work on a minimum benchmark of 20,000, and 30,000 as a good day out. For a city that has put a quarter of a million on the streets against the Iraq war in 2003 and more than 150,000 for anti-Workchoices rallies, the “Say Yes..” rally was small. And flat.

And it had paid private security, in Melbourne and Adelaide at least! Several people commented that they were flabbergasted to see paid security guards at the event, suggesting either a budget that knew no bounds, or organisers who did not trust (or know?) a good old-fashioned set of marshals, who come free-of-charge and with a coloured band tied to one arm.

Nothing contributed more to a general sense of deflation at the rallys’ end that the decision taken in advance (at all the rallies, except Canberra where local activists were in charge) not to march.

In Melbourne, for example, instead of marching people were encouraged to pick up pre-prepared post-cards for their neighbours. This misread the crowd, which included many experienced climate and community activists who are already involved in work around transition towns, alternative energy programs, campaigns for adaptation funding in the Pacific, lobbying within their union, school or workplace or participating in their local climate action group. There were certainly some first-time ralliers on the day, but this was a small crowd of the core, many of whom have been door-knocking, setting up street stalls and handing out how to vote cards for some time, and for many causes. A desultory postcard was close to an insult.

A march was what people want and expect, it gets energy moving, and voices heard, provides colour and movement and pictures, and takes the message to the city. People were pissed off. As they milled around in confusion, perhaps they needed a tweet from the rally organisers telling them it was time to go home?

It’s hard not to conclude that marches were off the agenda because they provide moments of spontaneity, and cannot be 100% controlled. When the Melbourne MC, Corinne Grant, announced there would be no march, there was an audible groan – people suddenly realised that their role was just to provide the crowd picture for the photographers perched on a scissor-lift that towered over the rally.

One Sydney participant wrote: “Totally disappointed. Not long after we got there…it was over! Many stood around like us asking ‘what now?’ Only saw Channel 9 & Sky…no helicopters checking on numbers, no polar bears and other assorted costumed characters to liven things up. No march….just a couple of thousand standing in a park, talk about preaching to the converted. We went a couple of years ago to the rally in Martin Place and then the march – brilliant! Not sure if someone different was running it this year, perhaps a case of too many cooks spoil the broth! “

A set of large, coordinated community rallies perform a number of functions. They publicly demonstrate large and energetic national support from hundreds (not tens) of thousands of Australian for political action. They energise and build the movement, an opportunity to gather names, help the formation of new groups of local activists, kick things long, build momentum, inspire many more to become active. None of that could be said of 5 June.

They are also the culmination of work in the community over previous months, where local and sectoral activity -- letterboxing, street stall, public forums, local stunts, outreach -- all help build momentum for the big day. But this was never going to be a big day, having been called a few weeks, rather than a few months, in advance. And with a few exceptions, most of the POP11 alliance have no capacity, experience or interest in such large-scale community organising. Indeed, a number of them have, effectively, self-appointed boards without any democratic structure or membership, and a disenfranchised supporter base good for money and an email inbox. It is quaintly feudal in its way, in a world reputedly made “democratic” by social media.

So what were these rallies about? Clearly, despite the bold intent of the initial POP11 vision, this was not about community organising and empowerment. They were, in reality, a very expensive media stunt, and little more. No community involvement in organising the events, no local buildup, no local follow-up, no march, no energy.

Of the speakers at the rallies, about two-thirds came from the POP11 organisations or their affiliates. There were only three speakers at the Melbourne rally, hosted by comedienne Corinne Grant. Peter Marshall of the firefighters union was followed by Jenna, a “suburban mum”, then ACF CEO Don Henry. The presence of a “community person” on stage was undercut when Jenna read a prepared speech that simply echoed Get Up’s message, rather than speaking with passion or anger, for example, about a parent’s concern for their childrens’ future.

POP11 CEOs were spread around the country to get the TV grabs: John Connor (Climate Institute) in Adelaide, Don Henry (ACF) in Melbourne, Simon Sheik (GetUp) in Sydney and Linda Selvey (Greenpeace) in Brisbane.

It was another day at the office, another big NGO media stunt, this time in front of a “community” backdrop, rather than the parliament house lawns. The community participants were passive players, who were denied the right to either help organise the events or march. And in some cases, apparently to hand out a leaflet or wear the t-shirt of their choice.

In this theatre, the community were not actors and this stage was not for them. They were extras, those who mass in a crowd without any scripted lines, bar a muffled “Hoorah” for the King and his new clothes.

And the message? The government’s policy of just a 5% reduction in emissions by 2020 below the 1990 baseline, and a carbon tax for that purpose, are so grossly inadequate as to be little more than a suicide note. If a “price on pollution” descends into a scam carbon-trading scheme with unlimited offsets and so on, it may be next to useless. As grassroots activists we must demand the actions that fit the science for a safe climate.

But criticism of the government, in any form, and encouragement to do much, much more were clearly not the purpose of 5 June. The rally flyer’s message was “Say yes to action on climate change: Say yes to putting a price on pollution, because we can’t afford not to.” That was just about it. Labor was off the hook; the gross inadequacy of its 5% target didn’t rated a mention. Presumably that was the idea.

The 5 June rallies have left many people feeling very uneasy, including within some environment NGOs. Clearly POP11 did not succeed in the task that was set, and the process started too late. But many of us failed for different reasons.

For months Abbott raged, but his sham policy was not sufficiently the focus of attack from any part of the movement. He won the battle to make Labor’s policy the story, not his hopeless mess of a “direct action”policy.

Suggestions from some activists that a low/no carbon price was better than a higher price distracted sections of the grassroots movement, and was politically naive in assuming that a lower carbon price would make “complementary measures” easier to achieve politically. In reality, the short-to-medium term chances for renewable energy funding were pretty much dependent on the size of the tax (especially with the Treasury head and senior ministers committed to reducing “non-market” energy policy mechanisms once a carbon price was working).

In the absence of carbon price legislation or even a clear idea as to what it would look like, trying to sell it was a very big challenge, and perhaps the wrong tactic. In the last six months, Julia Gillard sounded credible on climate on the very few occasions when she talked about how climate change was, and would, impact on people’s lives. But telling the climate impacts stories -- making the climate connection to extreme events, the impending collapse of the Barrier Reef system and the job losses, the water and food insecurity of a rapidly-warming world, the health and family impacts, the coastal flooding and social dislocation -- were put aside by the government and most NGOs in favour of an economistic “price on pollution” win-win narrative. But if people don’t get the real urgency of the problem, why should they care about the answer, or support a level of action which is absolutely necessary but far beyond Labor’s aspiration?

The unity of POP11 did not last. Branding imperatives triumphed over good politics. Commitments to consultation with the movement were hollow; many of the smaller climate groups, for example, did not know what was being planned for months. GetUp’s unilateralism triumphed over real community organising. The timelines appear flawed. A political strategy based on research in a few marginal seats should have been applied in those seats, but not nationally.

Packing most of the bang into one “week of action” used too much precious ammunition. Poor judgement led to an expensive, but poorly-conceived, TV advertising campaign that was easily derailed. An impossible task was set in trying to sell a government policy before it existed, with a limp, focus-group-driven slogan -- “price on pollution” -- wrapped in a campaign called “Say yes”. Which, in bitter experience, is what you say when you don’t know what to say.

It’s time to draw some lessons from this disconcerting experience. If these words are pointed, it is because the experience has been deeply troubling, and 5 June is no model for the future. Large public rallies are an indispensable part of almost all social movements and can play a unique and irreplaceable role. How can diverse forces unite at crucial times, and provide a large, engaged, public community face to our deep concerns? In what we do next and how we do it, finding an answer to this question is crucial.

“Most of Australia” can expect extreme temperatures of more than 50 degrees by end of century

2011-06-14T13:53:00.000+10:00

Climate change is making our planet hotter and wetter on average, but also drier in some places including southern Australia, and with more extreme events as the total amount of energy in the climate system increases.

So how hot will hot be? One answer comes from Andreas Sterl and 10 colleagues from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research at Utrecht University. In “When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures?”, they ask how extreme would temperatures be at end of this century if the global average temperature were to increase by 3.5C by 2100 compared to 2000 (based on the IPCC scenario known as A1B).

And 3.5C is we are heading. If all the commitments made by governments around the world to reduce greenhouse gas were honoured, and nothing further done, then temperatures by 2100 would likely be about 4 degrees warmer than 1900, around 3.4C warmer than at the start of this century.

Sterl and his team project what the hottest that could be expected in a 100-in-a-hundred-year event, known at a T100 value. Or to be precise, “the annual-maximum 2m-temperature that on average occurs once in 100 years” (temperature 2 metres above the surface). Statistically, such an event may not happen in a 100 years, but it may also happen more than once, as we saw last summer in a series of “100-in-a-hundred-year” events in eastern Australia.

Sterl’s findings are displayed on the map. The deep red colouring most of Australia is the range between 48 and 52 degrees Celsius. The remainder in deep orange is 44-48C. By way of comparison, Australia highest recored temperature was 50.7C (123.3F) on 2 January 1960 at Oodnadatta, South Australia. Extreme heatwaves across southern Australia during late January/early February 2009 set a new Melbourne maximum temperature record of 46.4C, and a new State maximum temperature records for Victoria of 48.8C at Hopetoun.

As the authors note, “According to this figure, temperature extremes reach values around 50C in large parts of the area equatorward of 30 degrees. This includes heavily populated areas like India and the Middle East... projected T100 values far exceed 40C in Southern Europe, the US Mid-West by 2090-2100 and even reach 50C in north-eastern India and most of Australia. Such levels receive much too little attention in the current climate change discussion, given the potentially large implications.”

Little wonder that Prof David Karoly of Melbourne University, in addressing future fire risk in Australia at the Oxford's "4 Degrees and Beyond" conference in September 2009, concluded that “We are unleashing hell on Australia.”

Australian government deliberately underestimating risks from rising sea levels

2011-06-08T17:38:00.002+10:00

First published in Crikey, 8 June 2011

Last weekend, the Australian government released the latest in a series of reports documenting the possible impacts of climate-change-induced sea-level rises (SLRs) on Australia.

It found a "worst-case scenario sea level rise of 1.1 metres" within 90 years would have a devastating impact, with as much as $266 billion worth of potential damage and loss to buildings and infrastructure.

This upper bound of 1.1 metres is used consistently by government. Inundation maps use three simple sea-level rise scenarios for the period about the year 2100: low (0.5m), medium (0.8m) and high (1.1m).

The big problem is that 1.1 metres is the wrong figure by a wide margin, with serious implications for the efficacy of the risk management and planning such research should underpin.

In releasing an earlier report, Senator Penny Wong told ABC Insiders on November 19, 2009 that "1.1 metres … is about the upper end of the risk". But the report said:

"Recent research, presented at the Copenhagen climate congress in March 2009, projected sea-level rise from 0.75 to 1.9 metres relative to 1990, with 1.1–1.2 metres the mid-range of the projection. Based on this recent science 1.1 metres was selected as a plausible value for sea-level rise for this risk assessment".

So a mid-range projection from the government’s own report in 2009, based on the peer-reviewed science, transmuted into a peculiar creature, a "plausible value", and now two years later "is about the upper end of the risk", which the Department of Climate Change knows to be wrong, as the literature also demonstrates.

Pfeffer, et al. in Science conclude "an improved estimate of the range of SLR to 2100 including increased ice dynamics lies between 0.8 and 2 metres."
Vermeer & Rahmstorf in Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA estimated a sea-level rise of 0.75–1.9 metres by 2100.
A new report from Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program finds "Global sea level is projected to rise 0.9 to 1.6 metres (3.0 to 5.3 feet) by 2100."
A recent survey of sea-level-rise forecasts by Nicols et al. in "Philosophical Transactions of of the Royal Society A." summarises the findings in this graph:

As Ross Garnaut has noted, climate science projections have sometimes been reticent when compared to observations. The 2007 IPCC report excluded the impact of melting ice-caps from its now-obsolete sea-level figures, and recent satellite data shows Antarctica and Greenland losing ice mass at an increasing (and possibly exponential) rate.

Dr David Carlson, director of the International Polar Year Program, says a "very plausible outcome" is a metre or more of sea level rise in this century from Greenland alone. And the West Antarctic glaciers also appear particularly vulnerable.

So what difference would a metre make? A huge amount. The damage to buildings and infrastructure impacted by a 2-metre rise and associated storm surges is likely to be more than double the $266 billion figure established in the recent report, and it seems extremely foolish to neither recognise that possibility nor plan accordingly.

Sensible risk management requires an assessment of the full range of possible outcomes, their impacts and consequences; not the average. By not doing so, the government is failing in its fiduciary duty. Communities and business, infrastructure authorities and local government planners are relying on the government’s assessment of sea-level rise risk to plan their future and make contingency plans.

By simply ignoring the available science and failing to assess the risk associated with the full range of possibilities, the government may leave itself open to huge litigation should reality turn out to be closer to the scientists’ upper bound that the government’s "plausible value".

Or perhaps we can leave it all to Senator Ron Boswell, who told an estimates hearing in February: "Being someone who has spent his life in boats, since I was a kid, I haven't seen any sea level change."

'Direct Action' could reward polluters rather than discourage

2011-06-03T15:25:00.001+10:00

First published in Crikey, 3 June 2011

Without any mechanism to discourage additional carbon emissions, the Coalition’s "direct action" climate plan may perversely reward them.

The Coalition plan proposes cash rewards for actions to "support 140 million tonnes of abatement per annum by 2020 to meet our 5% target", at a cost to taxpayers said to be $3.2 billion over the first four years. (The government now assesses that abatement task at 160 metric tonnes, for the meagre 5% goal of both major parties -- which stands in sharp contrast to the carbon budget approach advocated in the recent Climate Commission report.)

The Coalition plan does not discourage additional pollution, whether from new industrial investment or increased energy use accompanying population growth and increased household consumption. At $25 a tonne, the plan’s budget for 2012-13 would buy 20 million tonnes of abatement. Economic growth of 4% would be enough to nullify most of that.
And the plan is predicated on a 2011-12 start, but the earliest the Coalition is likely to get near a federal budget is 2014-2015. With less time, and a higher abatement target than specified, the plan’s year-by-year costings are not credible.

"We are committed to incentives rather than penalties," says the Coalition, but proposes businesses that "undertake activity with an emissions level above their 'business as usual' levels will incur a financial penalty".

A "financial penalty"? In plain language, a carbon tax. So, carbon pollution for new activity above a company’s "business-as-usual" emission baseline at the start of the scheme would be taxed after all? No, says the Coalition: "Provision will be made to ensure penalties will not apply to new entrants or business expansion at 'best practice'."

So long as a new coal-fired power station or mine can be considered, by that most indefinite of terms, "best practice", additional emissions face no penalty.

And here the devil is in the detail: for a party that espouses minimising the role of government, it is ironic that every business investment which involves substantial emissions will need to be scrutinised in minute detail by government. Is it a routine plant upgrade? Or a new and genuine abatement project eligible for a Direct Action Plan handout? Is it world’s "best practice", or not, and so subject to "financial penalty"? If Hazelwood power station patches up an out-of-order generator, can it receive a handout by turning it off again, and claim abatement? Or not repair it, and claim abatement cash for keeping it offline? Take an old, polluting plant out of mothballs, and put your hand out?

These problems of "additionality" and genuine abatement have plagued and undermined the world’s first experiment in "direct action" -- the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism. In one spectacular instance, a US$5 million incinerator in China that was built to destroy hydroﬂuorocarbon gases earned European investors $500 million.

The Coalition has no mechanism to discourage new emissions. Some emissions may be poured out of the pollution bucket by their plan, but there will be a tap pouring in new emissions driven by the mining boom, by population and economic growth, and perverse incentives.

When you pay people to fill in holes, don’t be surprised if they try to make a living digging new ones.