Climate Interactive -- The Blog

Beth Sawin Fills the Sails of Corporate Action to Close the Climate Chasm

2012-05-17T15:17:03Z

Closing the emissions gap requires all hands on deck and Climate Interactive Co-Director Beth Sawin is heading to Miami, Florida, the latest stopover of the Volvo Ocean Race, to speak to a group of business leaders who are taking up the charge. While actual deckhands race on sailboats just offshore, race sponsor Volvo will also host the 2012 Corporate Climate Summit in partnership with the World Wildlife Fund.

Beth is speaking at the summit about the emissions gap, the space between where current climate commitments stand and where they need to be to keep climate change within 2 degrees Celsius. Beth, an author on the UNEP Bridging the Emissions Gap report, will highlight the challenge this gap presents, but also the opportunities that the corporate sector has to put us on our way to closing it. Using fresh insights emerging from our latest energy modeling, Beth will explain that there are several dynamics, not the least of which is the actual emission reductions, that present opportunities for business to accommodate the limits of the atmosphere and reduce the impacts of climate change.

PAUL TODD/Volvo Ocean Race

Webinar: Climate and Energy Scenarios for a World that Works

2012-05-15T15:32:57Z

This month Climate Interactive is holding a free webinar series, open to anyone, to demo our latest simulation En-ROADS, which allows us to try out different energy scenarios to work towards a world that works. We have held three wildly successful webinars so far and have two more next week. Although we haven’t released En-ROADS, we are showing it to you to explore all the areas where it could be used and seek additional support to prepare it for wide-spread use. Select one of the two times below to reserve your seat before this opportunity passes by!

- Tuesday, May 22, 2012 1:00 PM–2:00 PM EDT (GMT -4:00)
- Friday, May 25, 2012 9:00 AM–10:00 AM EDT (GMT -4:00)

Drew Jones, Climate Interactive Co-Director, will lead the webinar and participants will help select the scenarios we explore from the areas of natural gas, renewable energy, Carbon prices, technology innovation, deforestation, and others. Time will also be given to answering questions throughout the event.

Drew is a system dynamics modeler, facilitator, trainer, and designer of simulation-based learning environments. Trained in Environmental Engineering and System Dynamics modeling at Dartmouth College and Technology and Policy at MIT, he worked in the 1990s at Rocky Mountain Institute and in the 2000s with Dana Meadows at Sustainability Institute. On the webinar, Drew will be joined by additional colleagues from Climate Interactive.

If you can’t make either webinar time and are interested in the insights we can get from En-ROADS, please take some time to watch our recorded webinar from May 1st.

C-ROADS Users Found in Over 70 Countries

2012-05-11T18:35:28Z

Not too long ago we made our C-ROADS simulation available to anyone who wanted it (you can request a download here). Today, we are excited to find that the hundreds of C-ROADS users can be found in more than seventy countries worldwide. Our C-ROADS simulation, can help just about anyone understand the long-term impacts of policy scenarios to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on our climate. From environmental NGOs in Costa Rica to school teachers in Austria to climate negotiators in the US, our users are not only found in diverse locations but come from a wide range of sectors and use C-ROADS for many different purposes.

Know someone in a nation or region not on our map who could put C-ROADS to use? Send them our way.

The hundreds of C-ROADS users can be found worldwide in more than 70 countries.

Drew Jones Shares Insights on Natural Gas as a Climate Bridge Through Interactive Simulation

2012-05-10T19:52:51Z

We know that coal is not our ticket to keeping the planet cool, but does an anything-but-coal solution work? In this video Climate Interactive Co-Director Drew Jones uses our new simulation En-ROADS to see how natural gas effects climate and the transition to a clean energy future. On the one hand, natural gas is not coal and it is cheap, but on the other it isn’t renewable energy either and it still pollutes — natural gas fits into an anything-but-coal scenario but can it put us on a path to limit warming to 2 degrees by the end of the century? Watch this recorded webinar to find out and also see Drew explore other areas that could help us reach our climate and energy goals from carbon prices to energy efficiency.

En-ROADS Exploration of Climate & Energy Scenarios from Climate Interactive on Vimeo.

If you have questions about En-ROADS or would like to see more, please join us on May 22nd at 1:00 PM EDT (4:00pm GMT) or May 25th at 9:00 AM EDT (1:00 PM GMT) for a similar interactive webinar.

Young People Need to Be Heard at the Earth Summit

2012-05-08T03:06:19Z

Ellie (center) speaks with Jonathan Pershing of the US State Department at the COP17 climate change negotiations

Faithful readers of this blog will notice that many of the latest posts have been authored by Ellie Johnston, Climate Interactive’s intern. Ellie’s passion for a sustainable future has her working hard not just at Climate Interactive, but also within networks of youth leaders on climate change and global sustainability. We thought that a recent article Ellie wrote about the role of global youth in the Rio +20 Summit next month would be of interest to many readers of this blog. Our last post was about some of what Climate Interactive is planning for the Earth Summit. Ellie’s article, below, paints a broader picture of this important event and suggests key avenues for participation and influence.

Speak up! Young people need to be heard at the Earth Summit

Published on Grist May 2, 2012 By Ellie Johnston

Next month, the United Nations will hold a mega-conference in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil — the Earth Summit, aka Rio+20. In addition to being an international Who’s Who of over 130 heads of state and leaders in sustainable development, it will also be a chance for young people to assert the urgency of the challenges we face and seize the opportunities presented to our generation to address them.

Yeah, I know you’re probably still sour about the last global enviro conference that made headlines — the 2009 Copenhagen climate negotiations. I understand that bitterness. I was there, a senior in college then, all wide-eyed and hopped up on hope. But in preparing to attend the Earth Summit with other youth leaders, I come with renewed enthusiasm that this conference will be different.

For one, we are all a little more sober heading into Rio+20. Few anticipate that it will produce a sweeping treaty that will plug our smokestacks and curb our passion for plastic. And after talking with U.S. State Department negotiators, I am assured that this is certainly not the course the U.S. is taking. (There are, however, many things that the State Department could warm to with a little pressure from the American public, like including at least one young person on the official delegation to represent American youth.)

Rather, Rio+20 will be a global conversation and test run in 21st century governance, driven by our planet’s limitations and need for diverse stakeholder participation. This is an opportunity for those of us energized by the street and internet democracy that has proliferated in recent years to bring our voices to the table with world leaders.

Our economies are trembling, our environmental alarms are blaring, and young people are antsy for real change. This is a moment for my generation to roll up our sleeves in Rio and call for more ambitious policy and leadership, but also to be honest with ourselves that policy alone won’t be a silver bullet for the world’s problems. Much of the work needs to be done in communities, building the organizations and business that can address today’s social and environmental challenges.

Rio will be host to a political process, but it will also be an opportunity to exchange tools and techniques that will help us implement our sustainable development goals. With events in Rio ranging from a corporate sustainability forum to an Occupy the Earth Summit event, there will be something for lawyers, indigenous people, young people, local government officials, and everyone else working hard for the future of this planet.

As we continue to see minimal mainstream media coverage of Rio+20, it is clear that the revolution will not be televised. Instead, it will be catalyzed by a generation of individual voices amplified by the power of collective action and digital technology. As with other recent transformative events, news will spread through personal social networks — but our actions will speak louder than our words.

As a young person, here are four ways you can directly plug in from wherever you are:

1. Join the hundreds of youth working on the Earth Summit by joining the Major Group on Children and Youth, a worldwide network open to anyone under 30. You can get involved in working groups that do everything from crafting policy submissions to raising media awareness.

2. Attend the Youth Blast, a parallel event for young people held just before the official conference, from June 7-12. The Youth Blast will be webcast, so you don’t have to be in Rio to take part in the workshops and presentations by young people, foreign ministers, and leaders of non-governmental organizations.

3. Get out our your webcam, hashtags, and dust off that forgotten blog. It seems like everyone from nonprofits to federal agencies have a contest of some sort to gather the thoughts of youth worldwide from blog to video to music contests and calls to tweet out your hopes and dreams for the world. Follow the coverage, repost the good stuff, and elevate the conversation.

4. Engage with U.S. leaders. They represent us, and it is important to make our voices heard. Send a telegram to the White House to tell Obama to come to Rio! Or, if you prefer the easy route, sign the petitions here or here — or just give the prez a call at 202-456-1111.

To find more ways to get involved, check out this extensive list compiled by SustainUS or if you are still at a loss for what this whole Earth Summit is about or just generally want to know more check out this great guide [PDF] on youth participation at Rio+20 put together by the volunteer-led youth group Rio+twenties.

So far through the Rio+20 process, we are seeing more humility than in past global meetings — an admission by world leaders that we are a long way from meeting the goals laid out at the first Rio Earth Summit 20 years ago and that we must find fresh ways of driving change on the local, national, and global levels. The opportunity is there for us to seize. As U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki Moon said to young people this week, “this is your United Nations.” Time is of the essence.

C-ROADS provides “spirited moment” to Rio Climate Challenge prep

2012-04-26T19:20:33Z

Alfredo Sirkis at RCC opening planning ceremony (credit: Tarsio Alves)

Travis Franck, Senior Scientist and Policy Analyst here at Climate Interactive, recently returned from Recife, Brazil, where he worked with Brazilian congressional representatives and international leaders in climate policy to shape what will be Brazil’s crowning climate change event around the Rio+20 Earth Summit this June. The Rio Climate Challenge aims to demonstrate that it is possible to have an international agreement that can keep CO2 concentrations under 450ppm. Climate Interactive has been showing to people (with our C-ROADS simulation) what global action would be required to put the world on a 2C-Pathway, and we are excited that others are committed to continuing to bring this message to political leaders.

The Rio Climate Challenge (RCC) is being convened by the Brazilian congress. It will be an additional event during the Rio+20 conference focused on a climate change, which is not included in the main UN meeting. The RCC will bring together past and present political leaders, researchers, and economic experts from around the world to represent their nations. These delegates will try out different scenarios and simulate policy outcomes to find ways that countries could agree to address climate change at the UNFCCC. The outcomes of this and future meetings will be shared at future UN climate change negotiations, the next of which will be held in Doha, Qatar later this year.

Travis attended the preparatory meeting for the RCC recently where his demonstration of C-ROADS was noted as a “spirited moment” that generated “excitation and curiosity.” C-ROADS enables people to try out and understand the different pathways we can take to addressing climate change. We are excited to see C-ROADS put to use in another “war game” setting during the RCC where people can talk about the simulation’s outcomes and apply it to their work in addressing climate change (read more about the war game held with the Center for New American Security).

If you will be heading to Rio+20 this June and can see how our tools would be helpful to your event or work there drop us a line.

“World Climate” Mock-UN Exercise Energizes Youth

2012-04-23T20:46:37Z

Youngest “World Climate” players yet!

Climate Interactive’s Drew Jones led a class of eleven seventh graders from Hanger Hall School for Girls through the “Mock-UN” policy exercise where three teams represent country groups and negotiate a global climate deal. They learned the biogeochemical carbon system through the “Bathtub” analogy and improved their understanding of climate dynamics.

Explore Energy and Climate Scenarios on Free En-ROADS Webinar

2012-04-23T20:43:25Z

Join Climate Interactive for a free webinar on sustainable energy scenarios and how they are shaped by policy and investment using the yet-to-be released En-ROADS computer simulation. Participants will get to try out, in real-time, scenarios for the development of natural gas, renewable energy, Carbon prices, technology innovation, deforestation, and several other variables. The lightning-quick simulation will then illuminate insights, some that may be new, about what will work to address climate change and the energy transition.

Please select the time that works best for you and register to attend the webinar:

- Tue, May 1, 2012 9:00 AM – 10:00 AM EDT
- Tue, May 1, 2012 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM EDT
- Wed, May 2, 2012 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM EDT

UPDATE: We’ve also just added two more dates due to demand:
- Tue, May 22, 2012 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM EDT
- Fri, May 25, 2012 9:00 AM – 10:00 AM EDT

Some of the pressing questions that En-ROADS can address include:

Can natural gas serve as a bridge fuel to climate stability?
Can an energy miracle emerge from the labs and bail us out?
How much can renewables and energy efficiency contribute?
What is the role of GDP growth?
Can we give ourselves a good chance at two degrees? (spoiler alert: “yes”)

The En-ROADS simulation is designed to enable anyone to test different energy scenarios using a tool that doesn’t require a degree in computer modeling and that runs on a personal computer. En-ROADS is an extension of the widely used climate simulation C-ROADS, which is in use by the U.S. State Department, Chinese government analysts, and many others worldwide. C-ROADS is available as a free download today.

Drew Jones, Climate Interactive Co-Director, will lead the En-ROADS webinar. Drew is a system dynamics modeler, facilitator, trainer, and designer of simulation-based learning environments. Trained in Environmental Engineering and System Dynamics modeling at Dartmouth College and Technology and Policy at MIT, he worked in the 1990s at Rocky Mountain Institute and in the 2000s with Dana Meadows at Sustainability Institute.

To further develop this project, our goal is to find partners who want to invest in and use En-ROADS and other simulations to make a difference in the world.

Global challenges a symptom of growth – VIDEO

2012-04-16T18:56:23Z

Americans are not getting happier in proportion to GDP growth explains John Sterman, Climate Interactive team member and MIT Professor, as he describes the interlinked challenges our society faces and things we must look at to move away from “business as unusual” (BAU). John explains that many of our global challenges are a result of the dramatic growth that has occurred in population and economies. “If the Gross World Product continues to grow at current rates the economy will be 32 times larger in 100 years than it is today.” Check out the video to explore more of his insights.

MIT TechTV – Sustainable Societies

China-U.S. Collaboration Launches Powerful New Simulation

2012-04-12T13:38:59Z

For over two years Climate Interactive has been working with Tsinghua University in China to create a learning tool to model the climate goals of Chinese provinces. Because of our work with Tsinghua, they have been able to provide the Chinese government with a new easy-to-use tool in order to meet their climate and energy goals.

China has committed to a 40-45% decrease in the carbon intensity of the overall Chinese economy by 2020. In order to meet this goal the Chinese government and provincial leaders set targets for the provinces to adjust their GDP, energy intensity, and fuel mix. To create true engagement from the leaders at all levels, however, there needed to be a shared understanding of how to reach these goals, and methods for calculating progress.

In order to create a tool to track the progress of the Chinese provinces, a team led by Professor Zhang Xiliang at Tsinghua University began using system dynamics models, the technology of which grew out of MIT Sloan School of Management and is behind C-ROADS. The system dynamics models are a contrast from the spreadsheet models that were used to set the targets, which are not geared towards flexible “what if” testing. What they sought was a user-friendly, interactive simulation such as C-ROADS, which has been used by multiple governments as part of the UN climate change negotiations. Professor Zhang’s Low Carbon Economy team had the data, an understanding of the Chinese energy system, and a staff of modelers to create the tool, but their partnership with the Climate Interactive team enabled them to put these elements together to create a successful model.

With the support from the Rockefeller Brothers Fund and Zennström Philanthropies and building on relationships cultivated by Peter Senge, Climate Interactive worked with Tsinghua Professor Zhou Li, Xiaohu Luo, and professors at MIT to construct the core simulation in January 2010. The Tsinghua team then improved the simulation back in Beijing, and in the summer of 2011, Climate Interactive’s Drew Jones traveled to China to support the Tsinghua team in presenting the work to provincial leaders assembled at Tsinghua. The leaders were quite excited to have such a flexible and useful tool, and made many suggestions on how it could be improved. Through the rest of 2011, Xiaohu continued to improve the core mathematics behind the simulation. During this time, Climate Interactive’s Beth Sawin also met with Zhao Xiusheng of Tsinghua University in Bonn, Germany, and later in Geneva Switzerland collaborating on climate simulations, exchanging data, and discussing approaches to analyzing greenhouse gas emission reduction pledges in the Copenhagen Accord.

In order to put the icing on the cake, that is the user interface on the model equations, a team assembled at the MIT Sloan School in Cambridge, Mass. last December. The group included: Climate Interactive’s interface guru Dr. Phil Rice, Tsinghua University’s Xiaohu Luo, Climate Interactive senior modeler Dr. Lori Siegel, and Vensim interface programmer Tony Kennedy.

Over three intense days, the team built a graphical user interface for the China Provincial model, 分省模型, developed over the previous year. With much hard work, our Tsinghua colleague, Xiaohu Luo, was able to leave Boston with a new user interface (see below) that allows people to use the model without any technical knowledge of the Vensim software that it is built on. This interface allows provincial leaders to enter their province’s energy plans and get feedback about how they are doing to meet the Chinese national goals for carbon intensity improvement, it also allows national leaders to add up the progress of the 30 provinces included in the model to see how close they are to reaching their climate goals.

The success of this project is due to the strong relationships built with working with the same team over many months, the high level of expertise, and the clear goal that we were working toward.

In the future, “funding willing”, we are exploring the possibility of adapting the provincial simulation so that it could be used on a mobile phone or on some other easily shared format. We are also considering the possibility of developing an English/Chinese energy and climate model of China that could be built off of our experience developing the En-ROADS model.

Chinese Provincial Model Specifications:

The model contains:

30 provinces (there are four for which there is no data)
Inputs:
- energy intensity by sector (agriculture, industry/buildings, service, residential) measured in tce/million ruan
- % fuel mix (coal, natural gas, non-fossil, oil)
- GDP
Two decision periods, 2015 and 2020
Outputs:
- GDP
- energy consumption
- emissions
- carbon intensity

More blog posts that cover the project history: