Climate Resource Exchange

What Will Climate Change Mean for Martha's Vineyard?

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Wed, 30 May 2012 14:48:00 +0000

It has been quite a while since my last post! Over the last couple months I have been focused on finishing up my M.A. in the Geography Department. Much of this time was spent on my thesis, which I wrote a post about back in February. The full text, entitled An Integrated Approach for Developing Adaptation Strategies in Climate Planning: A Case Study of Vulnerability in Dukes County, Massachusetts, is now available for download from Digital Commons @ UConn.

My goal for this project was to develop a theoretical framework that serves as a GIS-based decision support system for policy makers to determine where climate change adaptation policies are needed. This framework is operationalized through a case study of vulnerability of Dukes County, Massachusetts. Here is the abstract in full:

Climate Action Plans (CAP’s) are recent innovations in policy that have been catalyzed by a need to adjust the relationship between human activity and the Earth’s climate system. CAP’s often are composed of methods to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in addition to adaptation strategies. Research indicates, however, that many plans focus on mitigation strategies while adaptation policies related to predicted changes caused by climate change are often overlooked. This thesis presents an integrative framework for locating areas that are in need of adaptation strategies through a GIS based decision support system that visualizes vulnerability. It is operationalized through an empirical study of Dukes County, Massachusetts.

Dukes County is a New England county composed of the islands of Martha’s Vineyard and Gosnold. The county has a long history of commercial fishing, but more recently caters to affluent seasonal tourists. With both economic activities heavily reliant upon the ocean as a resource, climate sensitive hazards, such as sea level rise and tropical storms, pose an important risk to the population, built environment, and the natural environment that has made the study area a highly desirable New England tourist destination.

The results of my case study conclude that long term climate processes have shaped the way in which Dukes County has developed through the geomorphic influence of the last glaciation. The up-island towns of Martha's Vineyard (Aquinnah, Chilmark, & West Tisbury) and Gosnold differ in geography- both physically and socially- from their down-island counterparts (Edgartown, Oak Bluffs, & Tisbury). This geographic variation results in an unequal distribution of vulnerability related to climate sensitive hazards distributed throughout the county. I have quantified this vulnerability through examining the amount of various land types that could be impacted by climate sensitive hazards (sea level rise and storm surge events) in addition to creating a social vulnerability index for the seven county subdivisions in the county. Maps of the location of important infrastructure related to worst case storm surge are also available in Appendix D. Generally speaking, my study concludes:

Flatter land that is also lower in elevation down-island has traditionally been developed and inhabited more than the up-island land of Martha’s Vineyard and the islands of Gosnold. Consequently, larger populations and more developed land are at risk to hazards whose exposure is largely dependent upon elevation, like storm surge and sea level rise (down-island).

Check out the full text for more!

Surging Seas: Find Out What Sea Level Rise Will Mean For You!

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 14:42:00 +0000

Climate Central has created a web application that displays hypothetical effects of sea level rise around the country. Appropriately dubbed Surging Seas, this interactive map allows you to zoom to individual states and pan the map or search by area code. Once you find your area of interest, you can see the amount of land inundated by different values of sea level rise on the map and view statistics of population, homes, and land area by county or city (similar to my post last month about Dukes County, MA). Water level is adjusted simply by a slider on the left of the page, and as an area gets inundated, a white mask dissipates, revealing aerial imagery of the "flooded" area. Along with this dynamic map, Climate Central also produced a report on the threat that sea level rise presents to the United States.
Surging Seas is very cool and easy to use - I definitely recommend checking out how some of your favorite coastal places may be altered by the sea in the future! Try it below!

Climate Impacts, Mitigation, and Adaptation Week at UConn

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 14:27:00 +0000

Climate Impacts, Mitigation, and Adaptation (CIMA) week will kick off Monday, March 26 here at UConn. CIMA events will be dedicated to examining what climate change means for the UConn community, the Mansfield community as well as the wider, global community. The agenda includes a presentation from President Susan Herbst, faculty and student presentations, in addition to events with a focus on the Mansfield community.

The week's events will culminate with a Teale Lecture by distinguished climate scientist Michael Mann on Thursday, March 29:

Dr. Michael Mann: The Hockey Stick: On the Front Lines in the Climate Change Wars

What Will Sea Level Rise Mean For Martha's Vineyard?

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 15:20:00 +0000

Fueled by warming global temperatures, sea level is rising throughout New England. Dukes County, Massachusetts, which is composed of the islands of Martha's Vineyard and Gosnold (South of Cape Cod and West of Nantucket in the map above), could be especially vulnerable to loss of land reclaimed by the sea. How much land is lost, exactly, and damage done will depend on the rate at which the rising occurs and actions taken by policymakers. By looking at data from a couple sources, however, it is possible to begin to understand what elevations of sea level rise could cause damage and which areas could be affected most severely.

First, here are the rates of sea level rise in two locations close to Dukes County- Nantucket and Woods Hole. These NOAA charts show observed trend in sea level during the 20th century:

Both of the charts above show that sea level is indeed rising in the area, but relatively slowly. The Nantucket graph shows a larger increase of 2.95 millimeters a year, but even with this number it would take over 300 years for the sea to rise a full meter. This may seem comforting, but there are still uncertainties within the climate system regarding sea level and recent research has indicated that sea level is rising faster than it has in two thousand years. With factors such as large amounts of ice loss in the polar regions and thermal expansion, this rate could increase.

So, based on elevation data, let's take a look at what hypothetical increases in sea level would mean for The Vineyard and Gosnold:

While a rise of 1 meter would affect only 1% of the total land area of Dukes County, a rise of 5 meters would be disastrous and leave over 20% of the land in the county inundated. As we can see in the map below, there are large areas that would be vulnerable including much of the southern and eastern coasts of Martha's Vineyard.

An interesting and important conclusion from this analysis is the dramatic increase in effected land if sea level rise were to reach 3 meters. The graph below shows a crucial threshold; an increase of 2 meters will only cumulatively affect about 3% of the county, while the amount of new land affected when sea level rises from 2 to 3 meters is 9% (putting the would-be cumulative total at 12% of the total land in the county).

About this Post: This post includes some of the research I have done as a graduate student here at UConn in the Department of Geography. It was performed using ESRI's ArcMap, Microsoft Excel, and elevation data publicly available from MassGIS. I will be presenting this, in addition to other geographic analyses pertaining to storm surge vulnerability and social vulnerability, in a poster session at the 2012 AAG Annual Meeting in New York City this weekend.

Social Media Week 2012: Is it Getting Hot in Here? Social Media's Impact on Climate Change

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 13:55:00 +0000

February 13 - 17 is Social Media Week and panels of experts on various topics are being streamed live. One cohort of panels from New York, Social and Environmental Change, includes topics related to the Climate. Specifically, be sure to check out Is it Getting Hot in Here? Social Media's Impact on Climate Change, moderated by Janine Gibson and featuring Andrew Revkin, Fabian Cousteau, and Dr. David Guggenheim.

UCAR & NCAR: Steroids, Baseball, and Climate Change

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 19:22:00 +0000

Earth's Climate on Steroids: UCAR & NCAR have published a video that explains human induced climate change using the analogy of steroids in baseball, which can be seen above or on YouTube (for more, see: Doping the Atmosphere?). With the increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, we are more likely to experience temperature anomalies that are warmer than previous norms. Similarly, when baseball players have used steroids, many have seen drastic increases in statistical categories. Warmer than expected temperatures for the month of June (2011) can be seen in the National Climatic Data Center map below.

A global map of temperature anomalies in June 2011 with respect to 1961-1990 from the NCDC .

Anthropogenic Influence on Ecology

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 20:34:00 +0000

In the video above, Dr. Erle Ellis discusses mapping ecosystems in a new light; through the lens of anthropogenic forces. For more information, visit the Labratory for Anthropogenic Landscape Ecology. The website includes:

Dr. Peter Gleick: Climate Change is Happening

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 13:30:00 +0000

In the video above, Dr. Peter Gleick, of the Pacific Institute, discusses such topics as:

The evidence for climate change
Uncertainty regarding climate change
The campaign against climate science
The Future - will policymakers respond?
Climate Science Education and The National Center for Science Education's initiative regarding climate change

Climate & Environment Cartoons!

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 14:17:00 +0000

Check out this Washington Post link for more cartoons about climate and the environment.

An Emerging Hockey Stick: Sea Level Rise

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 15:07:00 +0000

This video, which I first saw posted on Climate Denial Crock of the Week, discusses the emerging opinion that sea level rise is experiencing a sharp increase that is similar to the recent rise in temperatures (see the infamous "hockey stick" temperature graph below).

Similar to the recent rise of global average temperatures (see above), scientists are beginning to describe a sharp, "hockey stick"- like increase in sea level rise.

For more on sea level rise, check out this earlier post: The Rising Sea.

Climate vs. Weather

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 14:41:00 +0000

What is the difference between Climate and Weather? Simply put, climate is what you expect while weather is what you get. Although weather can vary quite frequently (and dramatically as we have seen this winter in New England) in the short term, clear long term climate trends can still be identified and investigated.

Check out the video above for an easy to understand explanation.

Teale Lecture: Moving Past Doubt: History, Truth, & Anthropogenic Climate Change

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 18:59:00 +0000

The Edwin Teale Lecture Series at UConn brings distinguished speakers to the university to speak on aspects of nature and the environment. In November, Dr. Naomi Oreskes, Professor of History and Science Studies at the Univeristy of California, San Diego gave a lecture entitled Moving Past Doubt: History, Truth, & Anthropogenic Climate Change which is now available online here.

Infographic: The 2011 Hurricane Season in Review

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 14:18:00 +0000

Suburbia and Climate Change

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 17:46:00 +0000

Back in December, The Atlantic Cities ran an article discussing the effects suburban settlement patterns has on climate change. The article, entitled The Missing Link of Climate Change: Single-Family Suburban Homes, discusses how smarter land use planning can drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions. Suburban developments are often built away from industrial and commercial centers, which creates the need to travel longer distances (compared to more mixed use or urban settlement patterns) for everything from commuting to work to buying groceries. As you can see in the chart above, energy use is much greater in suburban single family homes mainly due to transportation needs. The overarching message of the article may best be summarized by this excerpt:

...what if we could also simply reduce the miles people drive by in a sense pushing their many destinations closer together?

TEDxPSU: Dr. Michael Mann - A Look Into Our Climate: Past To Present To Future

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 15:20:00 +0000

TEDx events are independently organized TED events that follow the general TED format, but are organized locally. I came across Dr. Michael Mann's presentation at TEDxPSU on twitter (follow him: @MichaelEMann). Dr. Mann is known for his extensive research in paleoclimatology- including the Hockey Stick Graph that displays recent, rapid global warming.

ESRI Map of Carbon Dioxide Emissions

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 19:47:00 +0000

ESRI has produced a map that displays carbon dioxide emissions from 1960 to 2008. The map is dynamic in that it allows the user to pick the year, or consecutive years, to display in addition to having the ability to "play" the map as an animated timeline. Another cool feature of the map is that it has two sets of symbology; the map displays countries' total emissions as a color and relative emissions are represented by dots. For more information, including how the map was made, visit ESRI's Map Story Profile.

What Will Climate Change Mean for Australia?

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Fri, 18 Nov 2011 14:46:00 +0000

Jeff Goodell, of Rolling Stone, visited Australia to find out:

"I have come to Australia to see what a global-warming future holds for this most vulnerable of nations, and Mother Nature has been happy to oblige: Over the course of just a few weeks, the continent has been hit by a record heat wave, a crippling drought, bush fires, floods that swamped an area the size of France and Germany combined, even a plague of locusts."

Read the full article here.

Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 14:45:00 +0000

As this month's conference United Nations Climate Change conference in Durban nears, here is a map, which I first read about on this blog, of climate vulnerability as concluded in a study by Maplecroft:

As shown in the image above, the top ten most vulnerable countries are:

Haiti
Bangladesh
Zimbabwe
Sierra Leone
Madagascar
Cambodia
Mozambique
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Malawi
Philippines

The study combines socioeconomic factors, including such items as poverty and rate of population growth, with physical factors, such as the likelihood of natural hazards occurring.

Visualizing the Anthropocene

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 14:44:00 +0000

Humans' impact on the Earth has been so profound that many scientists are now referring to a new geologic epoch, the Anthropocene. Arguments for this new era are found in such changes as climatic forcing through greenhouse gas emissions as well as upsetting the nitrogen cycle due to an ever increasing population. A dynamic resource for being able to see what this actually looks like is A Cartography of the Anthropocene. The website, created by Globaïa, features a variety of maps demonstrating the human effect at the global scale. My favorite, pictured below, is a map of the global transportation system.

The Global Transportation System. Globaïa "is a global education organization whose mission is to foster a consistent and informed participation of citizens in environmental issues by understanding the multiple dimensions of today's world and its likely future."

In Case You Missed It...New Tools for Evaluating Greenhouse Gas Emissions

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 23:21:00 +0000

Back in October, two new protocols for evaluating greenhouse gases debuted. The Product Life Cycle and Corporate Value Chain GHG protocol standards are designed to give companies a competitive advantage by saving money and reducing risks. Watch for more:

Are Climate Scientists Too Conservative?

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 17:20:00 +0000

Dr. Naomi Oreskes discusses her research that investigates if scientists' naturally conservative attitudes have led to bias in climate research (in that the impacts of climate change have been understated).

Northeast Recieves Pre-Halloween Treat

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 21:04:00 +0000

An image of the storm from NOAA

The northeast was hit with an early snowstorm this past weekend, with the most snow falling in Jaffrey, NH (31 inches). If you are in Connecticut, and still without power, the CL&P map of power outages, which I wrote about in a post for Outside the Neatline, may be a useful resource. For a map of snow precipitation on October 30, 2011, see the map below from NOAA:

Interactive Map Displays Extreme Weather Events

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 20:42:00 +0000

This map, from the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, shows extreme weather events since 1995.

For information regarding recent extremes weather events check out this map from the Pew Climate on Global Climate Change, which displays events that occurred between 1995 and the present. The map features recent events that happened this past summer such as flooding in the Northeast and droughts in Texas in addition to older events like Chicago's heatwave in 1995.

CAMEL - Climate, Adaptation, Mitigation, E-Learning

noreply@blogger.com (Mark R) — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 20:26:00 +0000

CAMEL is a FREE, COMPREHENSIVE, INTERDISCIPLINARY, ONLINE RESOURCE for educators to enable them to effectively teach about CLIMATE CHANGE.

Interactive Map Showcases Climatic, Environmental, and Social Research

noreply@blogger.com (Jon Pollak) — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 16:41:00 +0000

The Climate Change Adaptation Knowledge and Mitigation Network (AKMN) is "a platform for accessing and sharing current agricultural adaptation and mitigation knowledge". The AKMN website features an ESRI powered map that showcases interdisciplinary research on agricultural and food systems research related to climate change adaptation. In addition to the future implications, the importance of this research can be seen in the present, especially given the current events in Africa. Visit the links above for more!