CMassPolitics.com

2014 Election Update -- U.S. Congress

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Tue, 10 Jun 2014 20:00:00 +0000

Here are the U.S. Congressional races and candidates CMassPolitics.com will be following in the 2014 cycle. CMassPolitics.com follows those districts that represent communities in Worcester County and far Northwestern Middlesex County (Central Mass. candidates are highlighted). Websites and twitter feeds are campaign-based, unless otherwise noted. This listing will be updated as changes warrant.

Senate
Ed Markey (D-Malden), incumbent -- website, twitter, facebook
Brian Herr (R-Hopkinton) -- website, twitter, facebook
Bruce Skarin (U-Millbury) -- website, twitter, facebook

House District 3
Niki Tsongas (D-Lowell), incumbent -- website, twitter, facebook
Ann Wofford (R-Haverhill) -- website, twitter, facebook

House District 5
Katherine Clark (D-Melrose), incumbent -- website, twitter, facebook
Shelly Schwartz (D-Lexington) -- website, twitter, facebook
Bill Wilt (U-Waltham) -- website

Uncontested Races
House District 1: Richard Neal (D-Springfield), incumbent -- website, twitter, facebook

House District 2: James McGovern (D-Worcester), incumbent -- website, twitter, facebook

House District 4: Joseph Kennedy III (D-Brookline), incumbent -- website, twitter, facebook

Updated June 10, 2014.

Party designations: D-Democrat, R-Republican, U-Unenrolled

2014 Election Update -- Statewide

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Tue, 10 Jun 2014 18:30:00 +0000

Here are the statewide races and candidates CMassPolitics will be following in the 2014 cycle. CMassPolitics is most interested in candidates from communities in Worcester County and far Northwestern Middlesex County (noted in italics). Websites and twitter feeds are campaign-based, unless otherwise noted. This listing will be updated as changes warrant.

Governor -- OPEN SEAT
Mark Fisher (R-Shrewsbury) -- website, twitter, facebook
Charlie Baker (R-Swampscott) -- website, twitter, facebook
Joe Avellone (D-Wellesley) -- website, twitter, facebook
Don Berwick (D-Newton) -- website, twitter, facebook
Martha Coakley (D-Medford) -- website, twitter, facebook
Steve Grossman (D-Newton) -- website, twitter, facebook
Juliette Kayyem (D-Cambridge) -- website, twitter, facebook
Scott Lively (U-Springfield) -- website
Jeff McCormick (U-Boston) -- website, twitter, facebook
Larry Medolo (L-North Andover)
Evan Falchuk (UIP-Newton) -- website, twitter, facebook

Lt. Governor -- OPEN SEAT
Karyn Polito (R-Shrewsbury) -- website, twitter, facebook
Steve Kerrigan (D-Lancaster) -- website, twitter, facebook
James Arena-DeRosa (D-Holliston) -- website, twitter, facebook
Leland Chung (D-Cambridge) -- website, twitter, facebook
Mike Lake (D-Boston) -- website, twitter, facebook
Tracy Post (U-Yarmouth) -- twitter, facebook
Shelly Saunders (U-Springfield)
Angus Jennings (UIP-Concord) -- twitter

Attorney General -- OPEN SEAT
Maura Healey (D-Boston) -- website, twitter, facebook
Warren Tolman (D-Watertown) -- website, twitter, facebook
John Miller (R-Winchester) -- website, twitter, facebook

Treasurer -- OPEN SEAT
Tom Conroy (D-Wayland) -- website, twitter, facebook
Barry Finegold (D-Andover) -- website, twitter, facebook
Deb Goldberg (D-Brookline) -- website, twitter, facebook
Mike Heffernan (R-Wellesley) -- website, twitter, facebook
Ian Jackson (GR-Arlington) -- website, facebook

Secretary of the Commonwealth
Bill Galvin (D-Boston), incumbent -- website, facebook
David D'Arcangelo (R-Malden) -- website, twitter, facebook
Danny Factor (GR-Acton) -- website, facebook

Auditor
Suzanne Bump (D-Great Barrington), incumbent -- website, twitter, facebook
Patricia St. Aubin (R-Norfolk) -- website, twitter, facebook
MK Merelice (GR-Brookline) -- website, facebook

Governor's Council -- Seventh District
Jen Caissie (R-Oxford), incumbent -- website, twitter, facebook

Updated June 10, 2014.

Party designations: D-Democrat, GR- Green-Rainbow, L-Libertarian, R-Republican, U-Unenrolled, UIP-United Independent Party

2014 Election Update -- State Senate

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Fri, 14 Feb 2014 20:32:00 +0000

Here are the State Senate races and candidates CMassPolitics.com will be following in the 2014 cycle. CMassPolitics.com is most interested in those districts that represent communities in Worcester County and far Northwestern Middlesex County. Websites and twitter feeds are campaign-based, unless otherwise noted. This listing will be updated as changes warrant.

Middlesex and Worcester
Jamie Eldridge (D-Acton) -- Incumbent

First Worcester
Harriette Chandler (D-Worcester) -- Incumbent
Sean Maher (D-Worcester)
Paul Franco (R-Worcester)

Second Worcester
Michael Moore (D-Millbury) -- Incumbent
Todd Williams (R-Worcester)

Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire, and Middlesex -- OPEN SEAT
Anne Gobi (D-Spencer)
James Ehrhard (R-Sturbridge)
Mike Valanzola (R-Wales)

Worcester and Middlesex
Jennifer Flanagan (D-Leominster) -- Incumbent

Worcester and Norfolk
Richard Moore (D-Uxbridge) -- Incumbent
Ryan Fattman (R-Webster)

2014 Election Update -- State House

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Fri, 14 Feb 2014 20:28:00 +0000

Here are the State House races and candidates CMassPolitics.com will be following in the 2014 cycle. CMassPolitics.com is most interested in those districts that represent communities in Worcester County and far Northwestern Middlesex County. Websites and twitter feeds are campaign-based, unless otherwise noted. This listing will be updated as changes warrant. Last updated March 26, 2014.

2nd Franklin
Denise Andrews (D-Orange) -- Incumbent
Johnny Arena (D-Gill)
Karen Anderson (R-Orange)
Susannah Whipps-Lee (R-Athol)

1st Middlesex
Sheila Harrington (R-Groton) -- Incumbent
Gene Rauhala (D-Townsend)

3rd Middlesex
Kate Hogan (D-Stow) -- Incumbent
Philip Dolan (R-Maynard)

4th Middlesex
Danielle Gregoire (D-Marlborough) -- Incumbent
Matt Elder (R-Marlborough)

2nd Worcester
Jonathan Zlotnik (D-Gardner) -- Incumbent
Rich Bastien (R-Gardner)
Garret Shetrawski (R-Winchendon)

5th Worcester -- OPEN SEAT
Matt Castriotta (D-Hubbardston)
Donald Berthiaume (R-Spencer)
Stephen Comtois (R-Brookfield)
Jennifer Gaucher (R-Spencer)

8th Worcester
Kevin Kuros (R-Uxbridge) -- Incumbent
Joseph Hall (D-Bellingham)
Joe Guertin (U-Bellingham)

9th Worcester -- OPEN SEAT
Martin Green (D-Nortbridge)
Shawn Craig (R-Upton)
David Muradian (R-Grafton)

10th Worcester
John Fernandes (D-Milford) -- Incumbent
Chris Kivior (R-Milford)
Mark Reil (R-Mendon)

12th Worcester
Hank Naughton (D-Clinton) -- Incumbent
Brad Wyatt (R-Boylston)

13th Worcester
John Mahoney (D-Worcester) -- Incumbent
Jackie Kostas (R-Worcester)

15th Worcester
Mary Keefe (D-Worcester) -- Incumbent
Phil Palmieri (D-Worcester)

16th Worcester
Dan Donahue (D-Worcester) -- Incumbent
John Fresolo (D-Worcester)

17th Worcester -- OPEN SEAT
Kate Campanale (R-Leicester)
Douglas Belanger (D-Leicester)
Moses Dixon (D-Worcester)
Mike Germain (D-Worcester)

18th Worcester -- OPEN SEAT
David Cortese (D-Douglas)
Mark Dowgiewicz (D-Webster)
Brenda Ennis (D-Oxford)
Jesse Limanek (R-Sutton)
Joe McKenna (R-Webster)

Election Day Predictions

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 19:51:00 +0000

Here are my predictions for tomorrow's elections in Central Massachusetts...but first a couple of notes on the down ballot races listed below.

I do not think we are in for many surprises tomorrow. As I see it, only two seats will change hands. Susannah Whipps-Lee will defeat freshman Democratic incumbent Denise Andrews in the Second Franklin district. This really is an own-goal for Andrews. While she wasn't a lock to win, the whole thing about filing a bogus police report claiming that Lee had purchased cocaine turned what should have been a close-fought Andrews victory into the GOP's best chance to pick up a house seat, not just in Central Mass. but perhaps state wide. It's also telling that Andrews appears to be almost universally disliked by prominent Democrats in the district, many of whom are openly supporting her opponents.

The other seat I see changing hands is the Sixth Worcester, where I see Charlton Democrat Kathleen Walker taking the seat from freshman Republican Peter Durant. I think this could be very close--I wouldn't be stunned to see Durant hold on--but Walker has been heavily supported by Democratic interest outside the district. Combined, her campaign and outside groups have spent more money here than Durant and his backers have been able to invest. Remember that it took Durant two elections to win the seat, as the November, 2010 race ended in a tie.

There are a handful of other races that could switch parties. Leominster Democrat Dennis Rosa is very vulnerable; a defeat at the hands of Republican Justin Brooks would not be a surprise. Republican Freshmen Steven Levy and Kevin Kuros also should be in tight races and could lose their seats, though I expect them to hold on by slim margins.

None of the other state house or state senate seats should be heavily contested. On to the predictions:

US President
Electoral College: Barack Obama (D, inc.) 303, Mitt Romney (R) 235
Popular Vote: Obama 50.1%, Romney 48.6%
Massachusetts: Obama 61%, Romney 38%

US Senate
Elizabeth Warren (D) 51.5%, Scott Brown (R, inc.) 48.5%

US House -- 4th District
Niki Tsongas (D, inc.) 56%, Jon Golnik 44%
Joseph Kennedy III (D) 57%, Sean Bielat (R) 43%

Mass. Senate
Jamie Eldridge (D, inc.) over Dean Cavaretta (R)
Mike Moore (D, inc.) over Stephen Simonian (R)

Mass. House
Susannah Whipps-Lee (R) over Denise Andrews (D, inc.) and Richard Schoeber (U)
Rich Bastien (R, inc.) over Jonathan Zlotnik (D)
Kate Hogan (D, inc.) over Chuck Kuniewich (R)
Steven Levy (R, inc.) over Danielle Gregoire (D)
Carolyn Dykema (D, inc.) over Marty Lamb (R)
Dennis Rosa (D, inc.) over Justin Brooks (R)
Anne Gobi (D, inc.) over Jason Petraitis (R)
Kathleen Walker (D) over Peter Durant (R, inc.)
Kevin Kuros (R, inc.) over Robert Dubois (D)
James O'Day (D, inc.) over William McCarthy (R) and Winthrop Handy (U)
Mary Keefe (D) over Brian O'Malley (R)
John Binienda (D, inc.) over Bill LeBeau (R)
Ryan Fattman (R, inc.) over Don Bourque (D)

Independent expenditures: the rest of the money story

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Thu, 01 Nov 2012 19:39:00 +0000

Yesterday, I looked at the campaign finance reports for the candidates in contested Central Mass. house races (part one, part two), and the fights for the senate. While the reports tell a lot about the financial state of a particular race, they only tell part of the story. Another part is the role that independent groups play in sending mailings, paying for advertisements, and otherwise supporting candidates, ostensibly independent of the candidate’s campaign.

In Central Mass., Democratic candidates for house and senate have received $65,000 of support from independent expenditures in the last two weeks of the campaign, while Republicans have benefited from only $8,300 from outside groups. In some cases, the expenditures have been made in high-profile campaigns where the control of the seat has a chance of changing hands. In other cases, a tiny mailing here or there probably serves only to remind the candidate who his or her supporters are. Here is my review of independent expenditures in Central Mass. races since October 15:

Second Franklin

Denise Andrews (D-Orange, inc.)	$968
Susannah Whipps-Lee (R-Athol)	$0
Richard Schoeber (U-Templeton)	$0

The only independent expenditure in October was a small mailing from the 1199SEIU Mass. PAC advocating Andrews’ reelection. It’s a bit of a surprise that there have not been more independent expenditures given the general sense that this might be the best chance a GOP challenger has to pick up a seat in the state house. Does the lack of outside activity mean that Boston thinks Andrews has it wrapped up, or is it an indication that Whipps-Lee is a shoo-in following Andrews’ self-immolation over the bogus cocaine charges leveled against the challenger?

Third Middlesex

Kate Hogan (D-Stow, inc.)	$7,724
Chuck Kuniewich (R-Hudson)	$0

Outside groups have funded five mailers in support of Hogan in the last two weeks, including three from the Mass. Teachers Association. The 1199SEIU Mass. PAC and the SEIU Local 509 have also supported the incumbent. Kuniewich has not yet received any such support from outside groups.

Fourth Middlesex

Danielle Gregoire (D-Marlborough)	$14,787
Steven Levy (R-Marlborough, inc.)	$4,611

The good people of the ‘Boroughs are probably ready for election day, as they have been deluged with direct mail from the state house campaigns in addition to the US Senate race. Gregoire has been supported by seven mailings alone in the last two weeks: three from the aforementioned MTA, two from the statewide 1199SEIU Mass. PAC, one from the SEIU Local 509, and one from MassEquality.org. Levy has received late support from the Mass Fiscal Alliance. The indication is that both sides find this to be one seat worth fighting for.

Sixth Middlesex

Carolyn Dykema (D-Holliston)	$3,504
Martin Lamb (R-Hopkinton)	$0

All three of the mailings in support of Dykema have come from the MTA. You may be noticing a pattern: when the MTA supports a candidate, it has done so with three mailings: October 18, October 22, and October 30. Lamb has not received independent expenditure support from right-leaning groups to date.

Second Worcester
Neither Republican incumbent Rich Bastien or Democratic challenger Jonathan Zlotnik have received support from independent groups, reinforcing the idea that this is a low-profile race with little chance of changing hands.

Fourth Worcester

Dennis Rosa (D-Leominster, inc.)	$788
Justin Brooks (R-Leominster)	$0

Rosa has only received the support of one small mailing from SEIU Local 509. While many other Democrats receive support from other liberal groups such as the MTA and MassEquality.org, Rosa is one of the most conservative Democrats in the legislature and is not likely to benefit from those groups even though this race is expected to be competitive.

Fifth Worcester

Anne Gobi (D-Spencer, inc.)	$782
Justin Brooks (R-Leominster)	$0

Gobi has only received the support of one small mailing from SEIU Local 509. In previous cycles she has received support from the MTA, the Mass. Nurses Association, and the 1199SEIU Mass. PAC. This suggests that the outside groups do not see this as a competitive race, as opposed to an indication of a lack of support.

Sixth Worcester

Kathleen Walker (D-Charlton)	$9,584
Peter Durant (R-Spencer, inc.)	$0

Walker has received the supports of the three mailings from the MTA that other endorsed candidates have enjoyed, as well two mailings from the 1199SEIU Mass. PAC. Interestingly, the three mailings from the MTA were significantly more expensive than for many other Central Mass candidates, suggesting a much wider distribution in the sixth district than MTA mailings in other districts. The additional support and the lack of outside help for Durant have more than closed the fundraising gap between the two.

Eighth Worcester

Robert Dubois (D-Blackstone)	$3,014
Kevin Kuros (R-Uxbridge, inc.)	$3,731

Dubois has received the three-mailer support from the MTA. The Mass. Fiscal Alliance dropped their single, large mailing yesterday. This is one of the few races where the Republican has received more outside support than the Democrat.

Fourteenth Worcester

Jim O’Day (D-West Boylston, inc.)	$6,724
William McCarthy (R-Worcester)	$0
Winthrop Handy (U-West Boylston)	$0

O’Day has received the supports of the three mailings from the MTA that other endorsed candidates have enjoyed, as well two mailings from the 1199SEIU Mass. PAC. He also received support of a large mailing from the Mass. Nurses Association. No right-leaning group has felt an expenditure on behalf of McCarthy would be worth the expense.

Fifteenth Worcester

Mary Keefe (D-Worcester)	$1,447
Brian O’Malley (R-Worcester)	$0

Keefe has received the support of two 1199SEIU MA PAC mailings in the last month. However, she received nearly $18,000 of outside support during the contentious Democratic primary, suggesting that the outside groups know what everyone in Worcester knows: the race in this district was over on September 6.

Seventeenth Worcester

John Binienda (D-Worcester, inc.)	$1,779
William LeBeau (R-Leicester)	$0

Binienda has received support from both the statewide and local SEIU groups. My guess is that those two small expenditures are more of a lifetime achievement award than an infusion of needed support late in a campaign, since Binienda has $400K in the bank and doesn’t need the help to swamp the underfunded LeBeau. Statewide conservative groups probably believe the same thing, as they have not pitched in on the challenger’s behalf.

Eighteenth Worcester
If you look above to candidates Gregoire and Walker, you’ll see what kind of support a Democratic challenger gets against a freshmen Republican if the left-leaning groups think they have a shot to regain the seat. Compare that to Webster Democrat Donald Bourque, who has received the proverbial donut. Republican incumbent Ryan Fattman has 64,000 reasons why he doesn’t need help from conservative groups, and why it would be a waste for anyone to spend money on Bourque’s behalf.

Middlesex and Worcester Senate

Jamie Eldridge (D-Acton, inc.)	$3,166
Dean Cavaretta (R-Stow)	$0

All of Eldridge’s outside support come in the form of one mailing from the SEIU Local 509. Cavaretta has not pulled any help from outside groups.

Second Worcester Senate

Michael Moore (D-Millbury, Inc.)	$11,017
Stephen Simonian (R-Auburn)	$0

Three mailers have been sent in support of Moore, two by the state SEIU and one from the local branch. As a senate district is roughly four times the size of a house district, three mailings cost quite a bit more than a similar effort in support of a house candidate. Simonian has not yet received outside support for his challenge.

State of the Senate money race

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Thu, 01 Nov 2012 03:13:00 +0000

Part one of the house analysis. Part two of the house analysis.
Now that all of the OCPF reports are in, we can get a much better idea of where the Central Mass. races for state house and senate stand and what we can expect between now and election day. Here is the breakdowns of the state senate races.

For each contested seat, I’ve listed how much cash was raised in the last two months, how much cash on hand was reported in the pre-election report, and what changes, if any, have been reported since then. Also note that the latest reports include primary donations and spending from August 20 to September 6, so those candidates who had primary opponents may have spent or raised more in this period than unopposed candidates. Incumbents are in italics.

Middlesex and Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Jamie Eldridge (D-Acton)	$23,905	$32,714	$0	$32,714
Dean Cavaretta (R-Stow)	$4,808	($397)	$0	($397)

Eldridge has spent nearly $59,000 in the last two months, with the bulk of it--$35,000--going to the Mass. State Democratic Committee for “coordinated campaign services.” He is taking no chances against Cavaretta, despite the challenger having no money to spend in the last week. Cavaretta has tried to take advantage of free media and a number of debates to make up the difference, but the inability to compete financially will likely be costly.

Middlesex and Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Mike Moore (D-Millbury)	$32,269	$74,834	$0	$74,834
Stephen Simonian (R-Auburn)	$823	$894	$0	$894

As with Eldridge, Moore does not appear to be risking inaction, outspending Simonian $32,269 to $1,779 since mid-August. Neither state party seems to be seeing a competitive race here, as they have not been involved in either campaign.

State of the House money race -- part 2

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Wed, 31 Oct 2012 19:51:00 +0000

Part one is here.

Now that all of the OCPF reports are in, we can get a much better idea of where the Central Mass. races for state house and senate stand and what we can expect between now and election day. Here is the second of two breakdowns of the state house races.

For each contested seat, I’ve listed how much cash was raised in the last two months, how much cash on hand was reported in the pre-election report, and what changes, if any, have been reported since then. Also note that the latest reports include primary donations and spending from August 20 to September 6, so those candidates who had primary opponents may have spent or raised more in this period than unopposed candidates. Incumbents are in italics.

Sixth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Kathleen Walker (D-Charlton)	$10,487	$11,633	$0	$11,633
Peter Durant (R-Spencer)	$4,211	$16,417	$0	$16,417

Walker has taken in over $3,000 in PAC money in the last two months, one of the highest amounts for a non-incumbent in Central Mass. Interestingly, her campaign gave $3,000 to the State Democratic Committee, where most other campaigns have been taking donations from the state parties. Durant’s fundraising was very weak compared to other incumbents. He is also one of the few Central Mass. pols to pay for polling: he spent $2,300 on a Virginia polling firm last month.

Eighth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Robert DuBois (D-Blackstone)	$18,245	$9,115	$2,500	$11,615
Kevin Kuros (R-Uxbridge)	$9,813	$4,816	$1,500	$6,316

While DuBois appeared to have a great fundraising period, $12,100 of the $20,745 he has brought in since August 20 have been personal loans to his campaign. Another $3,400 have come from PACs, which appears to be the highest PAC contribution to a non-incumbent in Central Mass. He has spent nearly $4,000 on newspaper ads, bucking the trend of many other campaigns. In addition to his fundraising, Kuros has benefitted from almost $1,400 of inkind services from the Marlborough Republican Town Committee, which routinely funnels money from big-money GOP donors to local legislative candidates. Like Peter Durant in the Fifth Worcester race, Kuros has also spent $2,300 on polling. He also paid an Iowa firm $140 for “robocalls.” (Kudos to Kuros for actually listing them as robocalls on his campaign report.)

Fourteenth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Jim O’Day (D-West Boylston)	$19,300	$24,589	$0	$24,589
William McCarthy (R-Worcester)	$10,529	$3,489	$1,000	$4,489
Winthrop Handy (U-West Boylston)	$525	$53	$0	$53

O’Day’s campaign is more high-powered than most in the region. He’s paid his campaign manager $6,000 in the last two months. He paid another campaign staffer $1,500. He’s spent $4,000 on polling the district. He paid a professional fundraiser $1,000. Despite being a popular incumbent, he’s leaving nothing to chance. Impressively, all but $1,325 of his $19,300 raised since August have been from individual donors. Of McCarthy’s intake, $6,500 of it are personal loans to the campaign. He may be the only candidate in the region to purchase billboard space, spending $1,574 with Clear Channel to have his name in lights. All of Winthrop Handy’s contributions are from his personal funds.

Fifteenth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Mary Keefe (D-Worcester)	$9,203	$15,740	$0	$15,740
Brian O’Malley (R-Worcester)	$961	$507	$0	$507

Keefe’s heavy lifting ended when the primary was over in this heavily Democratic. While she has continued to raise money, she has only spent around $800 since September 6, and $50 of that was a donation to Lt. Gov. Tim Murray. O’Malley spent $100 on robocalls and $400 on yard signs, and that’s about it.

Seventeenth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
John Binienda (D-Worcester)	$3,005	$380,247	$0	$380,247
William LeBeau (R-Leicester)	$855	$374	$0	$374

When you’ve got over $400K in the bank for a district with about 45,000 residents, two things are clear: you don’t need to raise money, and you can spend as much as you want or need. In just two months, Binienda has spent $6,000 on mailers, $7,500 on radio ads, over $8,000 on newspaper ads, and a whopping $18,000 on a campaign consultant named Richard Wright. Bill LeBeau has done in either arena.

Eighteenth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Donald Bourque (D-Webster)	$774	$4,422	$0	$4,422
Ryan Fattman (R-Sutton)	$18,127	$64,775	$0	$64,775

Being in a populous town in a newly drawn district against a freshman incumbent should be a recipe for success. But Bourque has seen his fundraising completely dry up since August. He’s got a little money left for the stretch run, but he hasn’t received any help since August from the state committee or from PACs, which suggests that Boston doesn’t think he’s a credible threat to Fattman. The aforementioned incumbent is a prolific fundraiser. Not only did he bring in $18,127 in contributions, but he uses the Sutton Republican Town Committee as an extension of his own, taking in $6,762 in in-kind contributions from the group. The Sutton committee’s only income was a $3,000 contribution from...the Committee to Elect Ryan Fattman.

State of the House money race -- part 1

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Wed, 31 Oct 2012 18:35:00 +0000

Now that all of the OCPF reports are in, we can get a much better idea of where the Central Mass. races for state house and senate stand and what we can expect between now and election day. Here is the first of two breakdowns of the state house races.

For each contested seat, I’ve listed how much cash was raised in the last two months, how much cash on hand was reported in the pre-election report, and what changes, if any, have been reported since then. Also note that the latest reports include primary donations and spending from August 20 to September 6, so those candidates who had primary opponents may have spent or raised more in this period than unopposed candidates. (Incumbents are listed in italics).

Second Franklin

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Denise Andrews (D-Orange)	$7,381	$4,039	$2,000	$6,039
Susannah Whipps-Lee (R-Athol)	$4,958	$2,880	$6,352	$9,232
Richard Schober (U-Templeton)	$47	$0	$0	$0

Andrews’ $2,000 late contribution came from the Democratic State Committee. $5,352 of Whipps-Lee’s late contribution was from her personal funds. Going back to January 1, Andrews and Whipps-Lee have each loaned over $14,000 to their respective campaigns. Whipps-Lee has also been the beneficiary of over $5,000 worth of mailers provided by the Mass GOP in the last week. Schoeber lists one in-kind contribution: lawn signs from David Roulston, a 2010 Democratic primary challenger of Andrews.

Third Middlesex

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Kate Hogan (D-Stow)	$8,100	$12,527	$0	$12,527
Chuck Kuniewich (R-Hudson)	$1,059	$781	$0	$781

Neither candidate has received money from the state parties, suggesting this race may not be that strongly contested. Over a quarter of the contributions to Hogan have been from Political Action Committees. Bucking the old adage that “political signs don’t vote,” Kuniewich spent over $4,000 of his available cash on campaign signs.

Fourth Middlesex

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Danielle Gregoire (D-Marlborough)	$3,025	$5,715	$0	$5,715
Steven Levy (R-Marlborough)	$12,777	$25,651	$0	$25,651

Levy received a $2,000 from the Republican State Committee in September, while Gregoire has yet to be buoyed by her state organization. In addition to having $25,000 available, Levy invested over $10,000 the last two months on direct mail and postage. Despite Levy’s recent fundraising prowess, he is carrying over $22,000 in loans from his personal account from campaigns going back to 2003.

Sixth Middlesex

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Carolyn Dykema (D-Holliston)	$10,975	$22,221	$0	$22,221
Marty Lamb (R-Hopkinton)	$14,275	$5,283	$0	$5,283

Lamb’s fundraising has been augmented by $3,000 from the Republican State Committee in September; Dykema has not received any such help. Lamb has also spent over $12,000 on mailers and postage in the last two months. from his personal account from campaigns going back to 2003. Dykema has spent $4,000 on consultants and at least as much on events in the district. She has not reported a direct mail campaign, but has more than enough money on hand to do so.

Second Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Jonathan Zlotnik (D-Gardner)	$3,774	$6,424	$500	$6,924
Rich Bastien (R-Gardner)	$5,978	$2,188	$1,500	$3,688

In addition to the funds here, Zlotnik has reported giving his campaign $1,600 in in-kind contributions (most candidates list their personal campaign spending as loans, not gifts). Bastien has been propped up in part by $2,450 in in-kind services provided by the Marlborough Republican City Committee, which routinely funnels money from big-money GOP donors to local legislative candidates.

Fourth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Dennis Rosa (D-Leominster)	$7,473	$13,766	$5,972	$19,738
Justin Brooks (R-Leominster)	$4,124	$9,122	$1,251	$10,373

Despite having a healthy war chest, Rosa has pumped nearly $6,000 of his personal funds into his campaign over the last two days. Rosa has taken in over $3,000 from an eclectic group of PACs, including liberal Congressman Jim McGovern’s PAC and the far-right-wing Mass. Independent PAC for Working Families among others. Brooks spent almost nothing over the last two months (just $655), and has money to spend. He’s also getting late help from the Republican State Committee, which spent $2,500 on a mailing on October 31.

Fifth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Anne Gobi (D-Spencer)	$940	$7,537	$0	$7,537
Jason Petraitis (R-North Brookfield)	$1,745	$1,010	$1,545	$2,555

This has been an extremely quiet race, with little activity reported by either candidate. Of the only $940 Gobi has raised in the last two months, $800 were from PACs. She has also spent less than $2,000. Petraitis is making a late fundraising surge, taking in over $1,500 at a fundraiser last weekend. His biggest expense has been online advertising, dropping $1,100 for ads on the Telegram & Gazette website.

2012 Races -- Massachusetts Senate

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Fri, 01 Jun 2012 02:30:00 +0000

Here are the State Senate races and candidates CMassPolitics.com will be following in the 2012 cycle. CMassPolitics.com is most interested in those districts that represent communities in Worcester County and far Northwestern Middlesex County. Websites and twitter feeds are campaign-based, unless otherwise noted. This listing will be updated as changes warrant.

Contested Races
Middlesex and Worcester
Jamie Eldridge (D-Acton) -- Incumbent website, twitter, facebook
Dean Cavaretta (R-Stow) website, twitter, facebook

Second Worcester
Michael Moore (D-Millbury) -- Incumbent website, facebook
Stephen Simonian (R-Auburn) website, facebook

Uncontested Races
First Worcester: Harriette Chandler (D-Worcester) -- Incumbent twitter
Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire, and Middlesex: Stephen Brewer (D-Barre) -- Incumbent website, facebook
Worcester and Middlesex: Jennifer Flanagan (D-Leominster) -- Incumbent website, twitter, facebook
Worcester and Norfolk: Richard Moore (D-Uxbridge) -- Incumbent website, twitter, facebook

2012 Races -- Massachusetts House

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Fri, 01 Jun 2012 02:00:00 +0000

Here are the State House races and candidates CMassPolitics.com will be following in the 2012 cycle. CMassPolitics.com is most interested in those districts that represent communities in Worcester County and far Northwestern Middlesex County. Websites and twitter feeds are campaign-based, unless otherwise noted. This listing will be updated as changes warrant.

Contested Races
Second Franklin:
Denise Andrews (D-Orange) -- Incumbent website, twitter, facebook
Rebecca Bialecki (D-Orange) website, facebook
Genevieve Fraser (D-Orange) twitter, facebook
James White (D-Phillipston) website, facebook
Susannah Whipps-Lee (R-Athol) website, facebook
Richard Schober (U-Templeton) website, twitter, facebook

Third Middlesex:
Kate Hogan (D-Stow) -- Incumbent website, facebook
Chuck Kuniewich (R-Hudson) website, facebook

Fourth Middlesex
Steven Levy (R-Marlborough) -- Incumbent website, twitter, facebook
Danielle Gregoire (D-Marlborough) website, twitter
Joseph Collins (D-Marlborough)

Eighth Middlesex
Carolyn Dykema (D-Holliston) -- Incumbent website, twitter, facebook
Martin Lamb (R-Hopkinton) website, twitter, facebook

Second Worcester
Rich Bastien (R-Gardner) -- Incumbent website, twitter, facebook
Scott Graves (R-Gardner) website, twitter, facebook
Jonathan Zlotnik (D-Gardner) website, facebook

Fourth Worcester
Dennis Rosa (D-Leominster) -- Incumbent website, twitter
Justin Brooks (R-Leominster) website, twitter, facebook

Sixth Worcester
Peter Durant (R-Spencer) -- Incumbent website, twitter, facebook
Kathleen Walker (D-Charlton) website, facebook

Eighth Worcester
Kevin Kuros (R-Uxbridge) -- Incumbent website, twitter, facebook
Bob Dubois (D-Blackstone) website, facebook

14th Worcester
Jim O'Day (D-West Boylston) -- Incumbent, facebook

Bill McCarthy (R-Worcester) website

15th Worcester -- OPEN SEAT

Frank Beshai (D-Worcester) website, twitter, facebook
Dianna Biancheria (D-Worcester) website, facebook
Mary Keefe (D-Worcester) facebook
Ralph Perez (D-Worcester)
Kate Toomey (D-Worcester) website, twitter, facebook
Brian O'Malley (R-Worcester) website, facebook

17th Worcester
John Binienda (D-Worcester) -- Incumbent
William LeBeau (R-Leicester) twitter, facebook

18th Worcester
Ryan Fattman (R-Sutton) -- Incumbent website, twitter, facebook
Donald Bourque (D-Webster) website, twitter, facebook

Uncontested Races
First Hampden: Todd Smola (R-Palmer) -- Incumbent website
First Middlesex: Sheila Harrington (R-Groton) -- Incumbent website, twitter, facebook
37th Middlesex: Jennifer Benson (D-Lunenburg) -- Incumbent website, twitter, facebook
First Worcester: Kim Ferguson (R-Holden) -- Incumbent website, facebook
Third Worcester: Stephen DiNatale (D-Fitchburg) -- Incumbent
Fifth Worcester: Anne Gobi (D-Spencer) -- Incumbent website, facebook
Seventh Worcester: Paul Frost (R-Auburn) -- Incumbent, facebook
Ninth Worcester: George Peterson (R-Grafton) -- Incumbent website, facebook
10th Worcester: John Fernandes (D-Milford) -- Incumbent website
11th Worcester: Matt Beaton (R-Shrewsbury) -- Incumbent website, twitter, facebook
12th Worcester: Harold Naughton (D-Clinton) -- Incumbent website, facebook
13th Worcester: John Mahoney (D-Worcester) -- Incumbent, facebook
16th Worcester: John Fresolo (D-Worcester) -- Incumbent website, facebook

2012 Races -- U.S. Congress

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 17:25:00 +0000

Here are the U.S. Congressional races and candidates CMassPolitics.com will be following in the 2012 cycle. CMassPolitics.com is most interested in those districts that represent communities in Worcester County and far Northwestern Middlesex County. Websites and twitter feeds are campaign-based, unless otherwise noted. This listing will be updated as changes warrant.

Contested Races
New District 1 (Old District 2)
Richard Neal (D-Springfield) -- Incumbent website, twitter, facebook
Andrea Nuciforo (D-Pittsfield) website, twitter, facebook
Bill Shein (D-Alford) website, twitter, facebook

New District 2 (Old District 3)
James McGovern (D-Worcester) -- Incumbent website, twitter, facebook
William Feegbeh (D-Boston)
Richard Eustis (R-Northborough)
Patrick Barron (U-Worcester)

New District 3 (Old District 5)
Niki Tsongas (D-Lowell) -- Incumbent website, twitter, facebook
Jon Golnik (R-Carlisle) website, twitter, facebook
Tom Weaver (R-Westford) website, twitter, facebook

District 4 -- OPEN SEAT

Micheal Burstein (D-Brookline) website, twitter, facebook
Marty Farren (D-Sharon) website, twitter
Joseph Kennedy III (D-Brookline) website, twitter, facebook
Jules Levine (D-Brookline)
Jack Porter (D-Newton) facebook
Herb Robinson (D-Newton) website, twitter, facebook
Sean Bielat (R-Norfolk) website, twitter, facebook
Elizabeth Childs (R-Brookline) website

Retiring
Old District 1: John Olver (D-Amherst) -- Incumbent, Retiring website*, twitter
Old District 4: Barney Frank (D-Newton) -- Incumbent, Retiring website*

*Official U.S. House website, not campaign website.

Hashing it all out

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 01:54:00 +0000

Since most of my thoughts are posted on my twitter feed these days, I thought I compile a list of hashtags that I use/follow. Let me know if there are other hashtags related to Massachusetts politics that I should add to the list:

#CMass -- Central Massachusetts
#westernma -- Western Massachusetts
#mapoli -- Massachusetts Politics
#bospoli -- Boston Politics
#worcpoli -- Worcester Politics
#magov -- Governor and Candidates for Governor
#masen -- Senator and Candidates for Senate
#maleg -- Massachusetts House and Senate
#ma01 -- Congressional District 1
#ma02 -- Congressional District 2
#ma03 -- Congressional District 3
#ma04 -- Congressional District 4
#ma05 -- Congressional District 5
#ma06 -- Congressional District 6
#Worcester -- Worcester
#Fitchburg -- Fitchburg
#Leominster -- Leominster

The State House Money Race

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 17:10:00 +0000

Who has the most money as we look forward to the 2012 elections? Year-end reports were due to OCPF late last month; I've compiled this list of House incumbents and candidates (either publicly announced or campaign committee filed with OCPF). Here are the results (amount listed is cash-on-hand as of December 31, 2011):

Second Franklin
$1,483.77 -- Denise Andrews (D-Orange) -- Incumbent

First Hampden
$20,021.34 Todd Smola (R-Palmer) -- Incumbent

First Middlesex
$2,143.27 -- Sheila Harrington (R-Groton) -- Incumbent

Third Middlesex
$10,033.42 -- Kate Hogan (D-Stow) -- Incumbent

Fourth Middlesex
$15,045.82 Steven Levy (R-Marlborough) -- Incumbent
$1,453,35 -- Danielle Gregoire (D-Marlborough)

Eighth Middlesex
$11,145.76 -- Carolyn Dykema (D-Holliston) -- Incumbent
$7,887.10 -- Martin Lamb (R-Hopkinton)

37th Middlesex
$16,735.88 -- Jennifer Benson (D-Lunenburg) -- Incumbent website, twitter

First Worcester
$12,382.39 -- Kim Ferguson (R-Holden) -- Incumbent

Second Worcester
$3,460.91 -- Rich Bastien (R-Gardner) -- Incumbent

Third Worcester
$40,148.13 -- Stephen DiNatale (D-Fitchburg) -- Incumbent

Fourth Worcester
$20,232.42 -- Dennis Rosa (D-Leominster) -- Incumbent
$3,482.24 -- Justin Brooks (R-Leominster)

Fifth Worcester
$6,427.75 -- Anne Gobi (D-Spencer) -- Incumbent

Sixth Worcester
$5,437.38 -- Peter Durant (R-Spencer) -- Incumbent

Seventh Worcester
$6,042.45 -- Paul Frost (R-Auburn) -- Incumbent

Eighth Worcester
$9,956.62 -- Kevin Kuros (R-Uxbridge) -- Incumbent

Ninth Worcester
$14,246.91 -- George Peterson (R-Grafton) -- Incumbent

10th Worcester
$13,396.14 -- John Fernandes (D-Milford) -- Incumbent

11th Worcester
$6,625.55 -- Matt Beaton (R-Shrewsbury) -- Incumbent

12th Worcester
$12,403.98 -- Harold Naughton (D-Clinton) -- Incumbent

13th Worcester
$6,548.64 -- John Mahoney (D-Worcester) -- Incumbent

14th Worcester
$28,959.94 -- Jim O'Day (D-West Boylston) -- Incumbent

15th Worcester -- OPEN SEAT

$526.59* -- Dianna Biancheria (D-Worcester)
$4,404.70* -- Kate Toomey (D-Worcester)
*Balance in municipal election account.

16th Worcester
$74,639.23 -- John Fresolo (D-Worcester) -- Incumbent

17th Worcester
$402,923.38 -- John Binienda (D-Worcester) -- Incumbent

18th Worcester
$39,951.09 -- Ryan Fattman (R-Sutton) -- Incumbent
$1,661,10 -- Donald Bourque (D-Webster)
$13,205.60 -- Jennifer Callahan (D-Sutton)

The State Senate Money Race

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 02:14:00 +0000

Who has the most money as we look forward to the 2012 elections? Year-end reports were due to OCPF this week; I've compiled this list of Senate incumbents and candidates (either publicly announced or campaign committee filed with OCPF). Here are the results (amount listed is cash-on-hand as of December 31, 2011):

State Senate

Middlesex and Worcester
$59,719 -- Jamie Eldridge ( D-Acton) Incumbent
No Report -- Dean Cavaretta (R-Stow)

First Worcester
$145,655 -- Harriette Chandler (D-Worcester) Incumbent
No Report -- Dominick King (R-Worcester)

Second Worcester
$46,755 -- Michael Moore (D-Millbury) Incumbent

Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire, and Middlesex
$154,820 -- Stephen Brewer (D-Barre) Incumbent

Worcester and Middlesex
$19,519 -- Jennifer Flanagan (D-Leominster) Incumbent
No Report -- Aaron Arsenault (U-Leominster)

Worcester and Norfolk
$97,583 -- Richard Moore (D-Uxbridge) -- Incumbent

Five thoughts on the Fitchburg mayor's race

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Sat, 05 Nov 2011 01:03:00 +0000

With just four days until Election Day, the big question is if Mayor Lisa Wong, who is looking to secure her third three-year term, can come back from a very poor showing in the September preliminary election. She finished a distant second-place to Councilor Joseph Solomito, who pulled well over 50% in elimination stage. Here are five thoughts leading up to Tuesday's election:

1. How much does last week's snowstorm help Mayor Wong? I think it could help a lot. Following the 2008 Ice Storm, parts of Fitchburg were without power for nearly two weeks. Wong, along with Sen. Jennifer Flanagan (D-Leominster) and Reps. Jennifer Benson (D-Lunenburg) and Steve DiNatale (D-Fitchburg), were very vocal advocates for the city in the wake of the storm and put a lot of pressure on Unitil to improve their preparations for future events. While some surrounding areas are still without power as of Friday, Fitchburg was essentially all powered up within three days after the storm. If storm preparation is an issue over the weekend, it will help Wong quite a bit.

2. Will voters accept Wong's argument that austerity was necessary? Councilor Solomito has argued that Wong was wrong in shutting off street lights and cutting other services in order to build up the city's reserve fund, which has reportedly grown from $40,000 four years ago to around $3 million today. Wong's detractors also suggest that the improvement in the city's bond rating (which makes borrowing money cheaper) is the result of factors other than Wong's fiscal conservatism. The mayor's retort is that the city was on such poor financial footing four years ago that extreme measures were necessary to right the ship. It's very easy for voters to relate to the reality that library hours were cut or that their streets are dark at night. If Wong can't get them to believe her argument that those things were necessary to put the city on a stronger financial footing, she loses.

3. Was the preliminary election a sign that Solomito is heading for a landslide, or an indication that Wong didn't worry about the prelims? I think the result had more to do with the latter. The prelim was essentially a waste of time since the third candidate, Kevin Lynch, was more famous (or infamous) for his legal troubles than for his political positions. While I doubt that Wong spent much, if any, effort to get the vote out in September, I think the result probably surprised her and her supporters. My expectation is that Solomito has a lot less room to grow his support than Wong does. That's a double-edged sword for both candidates. On the one hand, I think the Solomito voter is more reliable--I'd guess that a lot of his voters vote in prelims, generals, special elections, you name it. On the other hand, Wong was a fantastic organizer in 2007 when she won for the first time. She has a lot of room to grow if she can be as well organized this weekend.

4. So, can Wong get her people out? I don't know. I suspect yes, but there's no telling for sure. In addition to her own organization, she has the advantage of having the support of some powerful politicians. While Sen. Flanagan has not endorsed a candidate, she is close to Mayor Wong and it wouldn't surprise me if her volunteers were helping the mayor. Flanagan may be the most popular figure in the North County and is probably the most organized. I'd be surprised if some of her people weren't helping get the vote out. I also think last week's endorsement by State Treasures Steve Grossman may be a bigger deal than meets the eye Will more than five voters change their vote because of Grossman? Probably not. Will a number of party activists get the message that if they have nothing else to do this weekend they should get to Fitchburg and pound the pavement for Mayor Wong? Probably so. Getting more feet on the ground and voices on the phone banks can only help.

5. So who will win? I don't know. Solomito has the advantage of high-value voters and the emotional argument that Fitchburg should have been spending money to make life better now instead of saving it for a rainy day. Wong likely has the advantage of organization. I realize this is a cop-out, but I think it is too close to call. The pressure is on Wong to change September's result. I think she will, but I'm not convinced it will be enough to be reelected for a third term.

Unenrolled candidates hurt Alicea in special election

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Wed, 11 May 2011 14:28:00 +0000

A quick look at the results from yesterday’s Sixth Worcester House special election suggests that the presence of the two unenrolled candidates took most of their votes from Rep. Geraldo Alicea (D-Charlton), and likely provided Rep.-elect Peter Durant (R-Spencer) with the margin of victory.

In three of the four towns that Durant won in both elections, his percentage of the vote remained remarkably consistent, while Alicea’s percentage dropped at the hands of Peter Boria (U-Charlton) and Bob Cirba (U-Spencer).

TOWN              Nov. ’10           May ‘11
                  Durant -- Alicea   Durant -- Alicea -- Others
E. Brookfield       59.8 --   40.2     61.8 --   32.6 --    5.6
Oxford              54.5 --   45.5     54.5 --   31.2 --   14.3
Spencer             59.5 --   40.5     62.0 --   31.8 --    6.2

In Charlton, the effect was less pronounced, however Durant still increased his margin over Alicea from +7% to +12%. In fact, Boria, a Charlton selectman, finished second ahead of the incumbent representative.

TOWN              Nov. ’10           May ‘11
                  Durant -- Alicea   Durant -- Alicea -- Others
Charlton            53.7 --   46.3     40.4 --   28.0 --   31.6

Only in Southbridge did the unenrolled candidates appear to take more support away from the Republican, but the effect was less pronounced than it was in the other four towns.

TOWN              Nov. ’10           May ‘11
                  Durant -- Alicea   Durant -- Alicea -- Others
Southbridge         38.3 --   61.7     30.6 --  58.9  --   10.5

The other indicator that the extra candidates hurt Alicea is that if the vote percentages from each town in the November election were used to predict the vote based on the May turnout, Alicea would have won by 165 votes. Here is the predicted vote using that method.

TOWN              Nov ’10 Percentage   May ’11       May ’11 Predicted
                  Durant -- Alicea     Turnout       Durant -- Alicea
Charlton            53.7 --   46.3       2,768        1,486 --  1,282
E. Brookfield       59.8 --   40.2         578          346 --    232
Oxford              54.5 --   45.5         339          185 --    154
Southbridge         38.3 --   61.7       3,118        1,194 --  1,924
Spencer             59.5 --   40.5       1,142          679 --    463

TOTALS                                   7,945         3,890 -- 4,055

It seems clear to me that for all of the discussion that the election should have been a straight runoff with no new candidates -- much of it from Republicans who claimed that one or both of the unenrolled candidates were “Trojan horses” drafted to hurt Durant -- the candidate that was hurt the most by the open field was soon-to-be former Rep. Alicea.

How Lisa Wong became a Senate contender without even trying

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 12:30:00 +0000

A recent news item on Swing State Project, a well-respected and widely read liberal election blog, included this little note that could shake up the political landscape in Central Mass:

We've already seen the mayors of some of Massachusetts's cities cited as potential [U.S. Senate] candidates (especially Newton's Setti Warren), but here's another one to keep in mind: Salem mayor Kim Driscoll, who has been asking around about the race. Two other mayors get cited in the piece as additional down-in-the-weeds possibilities for the Dems: New Bedford's Scott Lang and Fitchburg's Lisa Wong.

If that seems like news to you, you’re not alone. CMassPolitics.com hasn’t heard even the slightest buzz about a Mayor Wong challenge to Senator Scott Brown (R-Wrentham). In searching the internet, the story of Wong’s potential candidacy is a fascinating example of how one public appearance can turn into a potential campaign in a few short months, without comment from Wong (or any source at all, for that matter).

The saga began innocuously enough as Mayor Wong appeared on CNN on October 12, 2010 to talk about programs in Fitchburg to better engage the minority and immigrant community in civic affairs.

While the brief interview did not touch on any possible future campaigns and did not even mention Senator Brown, it did catch the eye of reporter Matt Murphy of the State House News Service. In an October 29 article examining the possibility that Newton Mayor Setti Warren may be a challenger for Brown’s Senate seat, Wong is mentioned as one of a handful of young Massachusetts mayors:

As a young mayor with experience at both the national and local levels and a military background that could offset Brown's own service record, Warren could be an attractive candidate to many voters looking for new blood, sources told the News Service, explaining the rationale for a possible Warren candidacy

Some put him in the category of several promising young Massachusetts mayors, including Fitchburg Mayor Lisa Wong and Fall River Mayor Will Flanagan, both of whom voters could have spotted giving national interviews on CNN in recent weeks.

"It's all about who can raise the money," said one Democratic official who agreed to speak anonymously, and acknowledged the chatter around Warren. "He could probably raise national money by tapping into the national veterans groups and African-American donors. Look at what [U.S. Rep. Joseph] Sestak and Patrick Murphy have done."

While one could infer that Wong and Flanagan were potential Senate candidates (and Flanagan subsequently confirmed his interest), Murphy does not compare Warren to Wong and Flanagan as prospective candidates, but as mayors with similar pedigrees.

The potential Wong candidacy first went national just before Christmas. Writing for the National Journal, Jim O’Sullivan, formerly a colleague of Murphy’s at the State House News Service, named Wong in a list of potential contenders that included Warren and a legion of others:

In a state with a relative dearth of prominent female politicos, Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll is eyed as an ascendant pol, and has had conversations about a potential run at Brown.

“I’m certainly always intrigued by these ideas, but I like what I’m doing right now a lot,” she told National Journal Tuesday. “I don’t think I have itchy feet, but I definitely think that having the local perspective would be great.”

Another young mayor, Newton’s Setti Warren, an Iraqi War veteran and former Kerry aide, has drawn attention. Patrick’s outgoing energy and environment chief, Ian Bowles, lost a race for Congress in 1996 and distinguished himself in Patrick’s Cabinet as its least press-averse inhabitant. Fitchburg Mayor Lisa Wong won statewide visibility with her 2007 election as the state’s first female Asian-American mayor. New Bedford's Scott Lang is one of the most active municipal CEOs in the state, and politically attuned enough to have won favor with some Patrick advisers.

The interview with Driscoll caught the eye of the Salem News’ Chris Cassidy, and three weeks later he included Wong in a “list of potential 2012 Democratic challengers:”

The [National Journal] story lists Congressmen Michael Capuano, Stephen Lynch and Edward Markey among the most likely challengers and goes on to mention lesser-known Bay State Dems, including former AG Scott Harshbarger and fellow mayors Setti Warren of Newton, Lisa Wong of Fitchburg and Scott Lang of New Bedford.

It was this news item that caught the attention of Swing State Project and put talk of a potential Wong Senate campaign back into national view. Note that nowhere along the line has a reporter actually received a comment from Wong on a potential candidacy. In fact, there is no mention of any source whatsoever pegging Wong as having interest in a Senate run.

Despite all of the speculation, there is currently only one declared Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, Bob Massie (D-Somerville).

Evangelidis elected Worcester County Sheriff

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Wed, 03 Nov 2010 02:56:00 +0000

With nearly 80% of the precincts reporting, State Rep. Lew Evangelidis (R-Holden) is cruising to victory over Tom Foley (D-Worcester) and Keith Warren (U-Warren) in the race to replace outgoing Worcester County Sheriff.

Evangelidis leads Foley by 52% to 42%, building a margin of more than 21,000 votes with approximately 40,000 votes still outstanding.

Durant upsets Incumbent Alicea by two votes in Sixth House District, recount inevitable

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Wed, 03 Nov 2010 02:38:00 +0000

According to the Associated Press, challenger Peter Durant (R-Spencer) has defeated incumbent Rep. Geraldo Alicea (R-Charlton) by two votes.

With all 12 precincts reporting, Durant leads Alicea 6,583 votes to 6,581 in unofficial results.

Durant won every town in the district except for Southbridge, which gave Alicea a 1,019 vote lead.

Benson wins reelection in 37th Middlesex

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Wed, 03 Nov 2010 02:34:00 +0000

According to Twitter updates from Rep. Jennifer Benson (D-Lunenburg) and WickedLocal.com, Benson has defeated Kurt Hayes (R-Boxboro) in her quest for reelection.

Naughton cruises to victory in 12th Worcester

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Wed, 03 Nov 2010 02:30:00 +0000

Rep. Harold Naughton, Jr. (D-Clinton) appears to be cruising to reelection over challenger James Gettens (R-Sterling). With 5 of 11 precincts reporting, Naughton leads 65% to 35%.

Among the precincts left to report are the four precincts in Naughton's hometown of Clinton, which has historically supported Naughton by wide margins.

Alicea wins Southbridge big, takes narrow lead with only Spencer to report

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Wed, 03 Nov 2010 02:17:00 +0000

With the Democratic stronghold of Southbridge going heavily for Rep. Geraldo Alicea (D-Charlton), the incumbent has taken a 399-vote lead over challenger Peter Durant (R-Spencer). However, the two precincts left to report are the two in Durant's hometown. If Durant wins Spencer, the race could be headed for a recount.

Benson leads Hayes in 37th Middlesex, wins both candidates home towns

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Wed, 03 Nov 2010 02:06:00 +0000

Incumbent freshman Rep. Jennifer Benson (D-Lunenburg) narrowly leads Kurt Hayes (R-Boxboro) in the 37th Middlesex House District, however she has won both Lunenburg and Boxboro.

With 5 of 11 precincts reporting, Benson holds a 53%-47% lead. She won Lunenburg by 328 votes and defeated Hayes by 15 votes in Boxboro.

Acton, which is the home of Democratic State Senator Jamie Eldridge--the most recent state representative in the district--is among the towns that have still not reported results. Harvard has also not reported results, but Benson had tweeted earlier in the night that she had won Harvard.

Incumbent Rep. Alicea in danger of losing Sixth Worcester District

noreply@blogger.com (Lance) — Wed, 03 Nov 2010 01:55:00 +0000

Incumbent Rep. Geraldo Alicea (D-Charlton) trails Peter Durant (R-Spencer) by nearly 10 points in his attempt to be reelected to the state house from the Sixth Worcester District.

With 5 of 12 precincts reporting, Alicea trails by 620 votes. Included in the count is Alicea's hometown of Charlton, which rejected the incumbent by a 460-vote margin. Southbridge, considered a Democratic stronghold and Spencer, where Durant is a selectman, are the two towns left to report.