tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9050596603021772052026-04-11T03:39:07.409-04:00Unique Approach, Unique InsightThe Lit Reviewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09862656571382266427noreply@blogger.comBlogger1871115tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post-59629567399483647922015-05-14T23:15:00.000-04:002015-05-24T17:47:19.910-04:00

Before the 2014 season, College Football by the Numbers was dealt a serious blow when the data I needed disappeared or moved behind an insurmountably high pay wall. I am now hoping to revive the site by developing my own standardized data. Using the links below you can download standardized play-by-play and drive data from the 2014 season. The data is rough; I consider this product a proof of

The Lit Reviewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09862656571382266427noreply@blogger.com301tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post-9743503018521848982014-12-15T13:33:00.002-05:002014-12-15T13:33:46.023-05:00

I noted earlier in the season that, based on recruiting results, the top five teams in 2014 should be Alabama, Ohio State, Florida State, LSU and Florida. The top three are in the playoffs (even if they shouldn't be). Oregon, the fourth, is 18th in recruiting. The Ducks have overperformed their recruiting for most of a decade. LSU and Florida are on the outside. LSU has an excuse. The NFL has

The Lit Reviewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09862656571382266427noreply@blogger.com132tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post-88464389247406155572014-10-05T15:55:00.000-04:002014-10-06T21:44:45.386-04:00

The web of wins for Ole Miss and Florida State within six degrees of separation: Ole Miss, connected to 84 teams: Florida State, connected to 45 teams: If rankings are about the body of evidence supporting a team's relative quality, the evidence is clearly in Ole Miss's favor at this point in the season.

Patrick Rhameyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17806752755235859917noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post-18659711140393372342014-09-18T10:17:00.001-04:002014-09-18T10:17:28.341-04:00

This is a continuation of a post from yesterday. I figured we needed some good numbers on the relationship between recruiting and performance, and I was uniquely positioned to do the analysis. If you want details on methodology or more results, check out the other post. Using recruiting results and performance between 2006 and 2013, I estimated the impact of recruits on performance. Now I want

The Lit Reviewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09862656571382266427noreply@blogger.com40tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post-37384232457499181662014-09-17T16:44:00.000-04:002014-09-18T10:18:25.453-04:00

Executive Summary: 4 and 5 star recruits are worth about 1/2 a point per game on average for the next four years.  That's about 25 points total By recruiting, the top 5 in 2014 should be #1 Alabama #2 Ohio State #3 Florida State #4 LSU #5 Florida Consistent over and underperformers (See part II) ****If you're only interested in results, you can skip this part****  A note on

The Lit Reviewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09862656571382266427noreply@blogger.com44tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post-58258570100256402172014-06-05T05:00:00.000-04:002014-06-05T08:33:38.293-04:00

We recently added a new feature here at CFBTN. If you go to the Teams menu, you'll find the option to look at team statistics for 2005 to 2013. To celebrate, I've decided to do a short series on the best performers across a few interesting teams statistics since 2005. Today, we're going to look at opponent-adjusted effective points per possession (EP3+). EP3+ is a measure of a teams

The Lit Reviewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09862656571382266427noreply@blogger.com68tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post-20385257430587125022014-06-02T05:00:00.000-04:002014-06-02T05:00:07.847-04:00

We recently added a new feature here at CFBTN. If you go to the Teams menu, you'll find the option to look at team statistics for 2005 to 2013. To celebrate, I've decided to do a short series on the best performers across a few interesting teams statistics since 2005. In this first edition we're going to take a look at points per possession. For the sake of brevity, I've limited the list to

The Lit Reviewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09862656571382266427noreply@blogger.com521tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post-5944989566778020222014-05-28T05:00:00.000-04:002014-05-28T05:00:06.026-04:00

The most under-appreciated story from the 2014 NFL draft is the Longhorn shutout. The academic juniors and seniors during the 2013 season, the players most likely to be drafted in the 2014 NFL draft, signed in 2010 and 2011. According to 247sports composite rankings, Texas signed seven 5*s and 27 4*s in 2010 and 2011, yet no Longhorns were drafted. Baylor, on the other hand, signed one 4* in 2010

The Lit Reviewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09862656571382266427noreply@blogger.com294tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post-39911337135554386282014-05-07T13:30:00.003-04:002014-05-07T13:30:55.076-04:00

I said before the 2013 season that Texas A&M had the potential to field the best offense in the history of college football. They didn't reach that potential. They didn't have the best offense in 2013. But the potential was there: the Aggies finished 2nd in EP3+ (i.e., they had the 2nd most effective offense in the country), and Sumlin demoted his offensive coordinator before the bowl game.

The Lit Reviewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09862656571382266427noreply@blogger.com34tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post-74330894858376979572014-01-12T21:48:00.002-05:002014-01-13T00:13:59.980-05:00

With the many high profile coaching moves at the end of this past season, one topic that has been discussed heavily is coach performance.  Often, the conversations play out within the context of two related concepts: expectations and compensation.  Nick Saban is the highest paid coach in college football.  Meeting expectations at Alabama means winning a national championship. &nbsp

Patrick Rhameyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17806752755235859917noreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post-80676495689994407922013-12-05T23:00:00.000-05:002013-12-06T00:26:21.270-05:00

8-4 Utah State vs. 10-1 Fresno State Saturday, 10:00, CBS What they do well Offensively, Utah State avoids turnovers, but most of the team's magic has been worked on defense.  Allowing just 1.18 points per possession, a starting field position 74 yards away from the end zone, 124 seconds per opponent possession, 13.1% of drives resulting in TDs, and just 3.71 points per red zone trip are

Brent Blackwellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13820023743742670777noreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post-83652228956726139142013-12-05T22:00:00.000-05:002013-12-06T00:26:14.460-05:00

12-0 Ohio State vs. 11-1 Michigan State Saturday, 8:17, FOX What they do well Nationally, the Buckeyes rank #2 in points per possession (3.67), #3 in Effective Points Per Possession (1.79), #5 in yards per possession (41.7), #5 in starting field position (66.3), #2 in drives that end in TDs (50%), and #2 in points per red zone trip (6.06).  The defensive numbers aren't quite so eye-popping

Brent Blackwellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13820023743742670777noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post-40966651972389014652013-12-05T21:00:00.000-05:002013-12-06T00:26:04.516-05:00

10-2 Duke vs. 12-0 Florida State Saturday, 8:00, ABC What they do well Duke does a good job of turning red zone trips into touchdowns, with 71% of RZ trips netting 6 or more points.  Defensively, Duke surrendered 1.47 points per possession and got good starting position (73.2).  They're decent at forcing turnovers and getting off the field before teams get into the red zone. I

Brent Blackwellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13820023743742670777noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post-84077003286707136872013-12-05T20:00:00.000-05:002013-12-06T00:25:59.661-05:00

10-2 Stanford vs. 10-2 Arizona State Saturday, 7:45, ESPN What they do well Stanford ranks in the top 25 offensively in EP3+ (1.24), starting field position (66.4), and time of possession (163 seconds per possession).  Defensively, the Cardinal is top 25 in EP3+ (1.06), starting field position (74.4), fewest drives ending in TDs (17.3%), points surrendered per red zone trip (4.16), and red

Brent Blackwellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13820023743742670777noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post-7644623152533005442013-12-05T19:00:00.000-05:002013-12-06T00:25:53.846-05:00

11-1 Missouri vs. 11-1 Auburn Saturday, 4:00, CBS What they do well There's plenty that Missouri does well.  They rank in the top 25 offensively in points per possession (2.92), EP3 & EP3+ (1.31; 1.25), yards per possession (38.6), starting field position (67.7), turnover avoidance (7.1%), and points per red zone trip (5.47), among other things.  Their defense has quietly been

Brent Blackwellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13820023743742670777noreply@blogger.com3