(Credit: Montgomery Advertiser)

* Please note: The Hotline will have a new home, and new url, starting Monday. The address will be posted here. Thanks in advance for your understanding // …

Week Four was a tad bit like Week Two, in that it wasn’t loaded like Weeks One and Three.

There were only a handful of substantive matchups: Wisconsin-Michigan State, Stanford-UCLA, Florida-Tennessee, Texas A&M-Arkansas and, to a lesser extent, Oklahoma State-Baylor and Georgia-Mississippi.

But in general, we didn’t gain a great deal of insight. And in this case, at least, I didn’t make major changes to the ballot.

A few highlights …

*** Ohio State was idle but remained on top because I could find no team that deserved to displace the Buckeyes. Louisville retained the No. 2 spot and Alabama the No. 3 after each dispatched creampuffs.

*** Wisconsin jumped two positions, to No. 4, after beating Michigan State.

I didn’t give that victory more weight for the badgers, however, because of the result from South Bend, where Notre Dame lost to Duke — Duke! — and thereby undermined the significance of MSU’s win on the same field last week.

Stanford jumped five spots, to No. 7, after collecting its first quality win of the season, at UCLA.

(No, I’m not counting USC as a quality win for the Cardinal. And I’d guess that anyone who has watched the utter mess that is the Trojans would agree with my assessment.)

*** Michigan (No. 8) and Clemson (No. 9) will undoubtedly be several spots below their placement in the AP poll.

My reasoning is fairly simple: Neither team has a resume worthy of a higher slot — every team ranked above them has a better win, or a better combination of wins.

(And if you’re wondering about the reason for the picture above: Just because …)

*** I moved Colorado onto the ballot … take a minute to digest that … after the Buffs won in Eugene with a backup quarterback, which says plenty about CU’s rise but also about Oregon’s fall.

Colorado’s best result, one could argue, is a loss: The Buffs were down three points late in the third quarter in Ann Arbor.

*** You’ll notice I have two two-loss teams on the ballot: UCLA and Mississippi. In both cases, the losses are to top-10-caliber teams (Alabama, Florida State, Texas A&M and Stanford).

By my way of thinking, losing to top-10 teams doesn’t make you unworthy of a spot on the ballot.

Dropped from the ballot this week: LSU, Georgia and Oklahoma State

New to the ballot this week: Mississippi, Baylor and Colorado

1. Ohio State
2. Louisville
3. Alabama
4. Wisconsin
5. Houston
6. Texas A&M
7. Stanford
8. Michigan
9. Clemson
10. Washington
11. Michigan State
12. Arkansas
13. TCU
14. Florida State
15. San Diego State
16. Tennessee
17. Mississippi
18. UCLA
19. Miami
20. Baylor
21. Oklahoma
22. Utah
23. Nebraska
24. Colorado
25. Florida

*** Here’s episode 2 of the College Hotline podcast, with guest Chris ‘Rankman’ Dufresne, former national columnist for the L.A. Times and co-founder of TMGcollegesports.com. We addressed the SEC as a destination for homeless quarterbacks, Big 12 expansion chaos and several Pac-12 topics, including a deep dive into USC’s football woes and the university’s misguided approach to hiring.

*** And please note: The Hotline podcast is available on iTunes.

The post My AP top-25 ballot: Wisconsin, Texas A&M and Stanford jump, LSU tumbles down, down … and out appeared first on College Hotline.

(Credit: AP Photo)

Please note: The Hotline will have a new home, and new url, starting Monday. The address will be posted here. Thanks in advance for your understanding.

Last week: 2-2-1
Season: 7-7-1
Five-star special: 2-1

All picks against the spread.
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com (opening lines used)

San Jose State (plus-6) at Iowa State: Tough kickoff time for the visitors (9 a.m. PT), who have a litany of issues and might have to lean on a freshman quarterback (Josh Love). But ISU is simply dreadful. Pick: San Jose State.

Oklahoma State (plus-10) at Baylor: After Northwestern State, SMU and Rice, the Bears finally face legit competition. I expect the Cowboys, who were tested last week by Pittsburgh, to cover and to win the game outright. Pick: Oklahoma State.

Arkansas (plus-2.5) vs. Texas A&M (in Arlington): The Hogs just might be the second-best team in the SEC West. If they win in College Station after the Fort Worth OT escape, it might be time to declare them the best team in Texas, too. Pick: Arkansas.

Nebraska (minus-6) at Northwestern: Any other year, and Northwestern as home underdog would be too attractive to pass up. But any other year, the Wildcats aren’t losing at home to teams like Western Michigan and Illinois State. The Riley train rolls on. Pick: Nebraska.

LSU (minus-2.5) at Auburn: The Termination Bowl. Never bet against The Hat doing what it takes to escape with his coaching life. Pick: LSU.

Straight-up winners: San Jose State, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Nebraska and LSU. (Yep, all road teams.)

Five-star special: Arkansas. Has lost the past two to Texas A&M in overtime. The Hogs’ fortunes take a decided turn for the better..

*** Here’s episode 2 of the College Hotline podcast, with guest Chris ‘Rankman’ Dufresne, former national columnist for the L.A. Times and co-founder of TMGcollegesports.com. We addressed the SEC as a destination for homeless quarterbacks, Big 12 expansion chaos and several Pac-12 topics, including a deep dive into USC’s football woes and the university’s misguided approach to hiring.

*** And please note: The Hotline podcast is available on iTunes.

The post College football picks of the week appeared first on College Hotline.

Please note: The Hotline will have a new home, and new url, starting Monday. The address will be posted here. Thanks in advance for your understanding.

We touched on several matchups Wednesday with my Four Questions for Week Four post. One game I purposefully did not addressed in much detail, in part because I was saving it for this space, is the Cal-Arizona State duel.

The relevant number for me is not Cal’s national ranking in run defense (126th) or ASU’s national ranking in pass defense (128th, which is dead last). Nope, it’s this:

119

That’s the combined point total in the highest scoring conference game in Pac-12 history:  Cal 60-59 over Washington State two years ago. It will be in jeopardy late (late) Saturday night.

Remember Oregon’s crazy, 61-55 triple-overtime victory over ASU last season? This weekend’s tangle in Tempe could make that seem like amateur hour.

Last week: 5-4
Season: 12-12
Five-star special: 2-1

All picks against the spread
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com (opening lines used)

Bye: Washington State

USC (plus-1) at UTAH (Friday): Yes, Rice-Eccles is a tough place for any visitor, much less a rookie quarterback. And yes, the Utah defense is relentless. But the switch to Sam Darnold improves USC’s prospects because of his mobility — and because things couldn’t have been much worse under Max Browne. And yet, the QB switch won’t be enough. Pick: Utah.

COLORADO (plus-7.5) at OREGON: Assuming Sefo Liufau is healthy enough to make a difference, this should be entertaining — a prime candidate for Pac-12 game of the day. The Buffs finally have the manpower to keep pace with Oregon, certainly for three quarters and maybe for four. The line has jumped to Oregon -10.5. Wrong direction. Pick: Colorado.

STANFORD (minus-3) at UCLA: The line inexplicably opened with UCLA as a 1-pt favorite but has swung so dramatically that I feel compelled to play the current number, which, by the way, is still too low. The Cardinal has won the past three by at least 14 points. How much has really changed? Pick: Stanford.

BOISE STATE (minus-14) at OREGON STATE: Would like the Beavers to push their guest to the brink if not for the fact that BSU is off a bye. Not a blowout, but not down to the wire, either. Pick: Oregon State.

CAL (plus-6.5) at ARIZONA STATE: Last possession doesn’t win. Last possession sends it to overtime, and the first possession of the second OT is the difference. (How’s that for specifics?) The over/under of 82.5 stands no chance. Both teams will be well over 50 by the time it’s over. Pick: Cal.

WASHINGTON (minus-10) at ARIZONA: Maybe the Huskies stroll into Arizona Stadium and carve up the struggling Wildcats. That’s an entirely reasonable outlook … but not one I’m inclined to buy. First road game for UW, a roiling atmosphere and a revved-up host that, oh-by-the-way, has beaten a top-10 team four years in a row. Pick: Arizona.

Straight-up winners: Utah, Oregon, Stanford, Boise State, Cal and Washington.

Five-star special: Stanford. Hit the no-brainer five-star last week with Stanford over USC and see no reason to veer from the Cardinal just because it’s a different L.A. school. Bruins haven’t beaten Stanford since 2008 and won’t start now.

*** Here’s episode 2 of the College Hotline podcast, with guest Chris ‘Rankman’ Dufresne, former national columnist for the L.A. Times and co-founder of TMGcollegesports.com. We addressed the SEC as a destination for homeless quarterbacks, Big 12 expansion chaos and several Pac-12 topics, including a deep dive into USC’s football woes and the university’s misguided approach to hiring.

*** And please note: The Hotline podcast is available on iTunes.

The post Pac-12 football picks of the week: A test for Washington (finally!), more trouble for USC, Colorado makes Oregon sweat and Stanford rolls UCLA (again) appeared first on College Hotline.

* We addressed the SEC as a landing spot for discarded quarterbacks from other Power 5 conferences.

* We looked at the impetus for Big 12 expansion (that would be Oklahoma’s loose-lipped president, David Boren) and the state of Texas under Charlie Strong.

* And yes, we hit on several Pac-12 topics, including a deep dive into the wayward culture of USC football, from the impact of the sanctions and all the coaching changes to the university’s misguided insistence on hiring from within.

As Dufresne also noted: The last decade might have unfolded differently if the Trojans had converted on fourth-and-two against Texas.

And please note: The Hotline podcast is available on iTunes.

The post College Hotline podcast with Chris ‘Rankman’ Dufresne appeared first on College Hotline.

* Please note: The Hotline will have a new home, and new url, starting Monday. The address will be posted here. Thanks in advance for your understanding // …

Welcome to a new feature here on the Hotline, pegged to the start of conference play en masse.

Still to be determined is whether the number of questions matches the number of the week. (The thought of 11 questions for Week 11 seems a tad daunting, but that’s for another day.)

Starting with the Sam Darnold Experience on Friday night in Salt Lake City, I’ll be watching for answers to these questions:

Are the L.A. schools tough enough?

On the surface, that might seem ridiculous. USC and UCLA, with their tradition and recruiting base, shouldn’t have a toughness issue. (If managed to maximum efficiency, they should not have any deep, structural issues relative to their Pac-12 competition.)

But they do have a toughness issue, and their opponents this weekend, Stanford and Utah, are the most physical teams in the conference.

The Trojans’ defensive line isn’t what it should be, even without Kenny Bigelow — recruiting has simply not been up to USC’s standard (moreso on the DL than anywhere else). The Trojans couldn’t stop Stanford in obvious running situations, which was every time quarterback Ryan Burns lined up under center.

Nor is their offensive line the dominant force many expected this season with all those talented recruits from the Sarkisian era finally experienced upperclassmen. Utah’s front, meanwhile, is relentless, one of the best in the conference.

UCLA veered away from physical play when it transitioned to the spread offense years ago and has lost eight in a row to Stanford, many in lopsided fashion.

Coach Jim Mora seems intent on reclaiming the line of scrimmage. Personnel doesn’t seem to be an issue: The Bruins have a talented defensive front and a veteran offensive line.

But do they have the mentality needed to stand up to Stanford? Or is this simply a re-packaged version of their soft selves?

Is Colorado ready to compete? 

The Buffs could not have been more impressive through three games — winning in Ann Arbor wasn’t a reasonable expectation — and now they open conference play not just on the road, but in Eugene.

Scores of the past five games against Oregon:

Oregon 45, CU 2
Oregon 70, CU 14
Oregon 57, CU 16
Oregon 44, CU 10
Oregon 41, CU 24

But the programs seem to be on opposing trajectories, with CU rising and Oregon declining (compared to where it was three or four years ago).

The Buffs could be without quarterback Sefo Liufau, who has a sprained ankle, and that would change the dynamic, of course. But if Liufau is healthy, expect CU to push Oregon, which itself has injury issues, deep into the fourth quarter.

Another blowout with Liufau in the lineup would be a surprise, and a step back for the Buffs.

How will the first-time quarterbacks perform?

Enough quarterbacks are encountering new situations for this to be an issue worth tracking:

* USC’s Sam Darnold is making his first start.

Expect the redshirt freshman to provide a spark for USC’s incomprehensibly stagnant offense. His mobility will be essential to counter Utah’s hard-charging front seven.

* Stanford’s Ryan Burns is making his first road start.

If all goes well for the Cardinal, Burns will remain in his comfort zone as a complement to the running game. If all goes well for the Bruins, Burns will be forced out of that zone.

* Utah’s Troy Williams is making his first conference start, at least for the Utes.

He started once for Washington two years ago, a backup forced into the lineup by injury. But this is different: He’s the No. 1 and the opponent is USC under the Friday night lights.

* Oregon’s Dakota Prukup is making his first Pac-12 start.

The circumstances are hardly ideal: Receiver Devon Allen and left tackle Tyrell Crosby are out, leaving the Ducks without a stretch-the-field option in the passing game and one of their most experienced linemen. (Their front five is loaded with rookies.) If Royce Freeman can’t play, the challenge facing Prukop rises to another level.

* Arizona State redshirt sophomore Manny Wilkins has thrown 95 passes already this season, but none in the crucible of conference play.

Look for the Sun Devils to make his task easier by establishing the run against a Cal defense allowing 296.3 yards per game on the ground.

* Cal’s Davis Webb is making his first Pac-12 start, although his experience as a starter for Texas Tech would seem to render the circumstances in Tempe on Saturday night a non-issue.

* Injuries to quarterbacks at Colorado and Arizona could make those situations worth watching, as well.

Is Washington as good as advertised?

It’s late September, and we cannot draw any conclusions about the Huskies.

They sure look good, but three blowouts — all of them at home, all against second-rate foes — are hardly satisfactory evidence.

If the Huskies are truly the favorite in the North and a playoff contender, they will not only beat the Wildcats but throttle them.

Elite teams make statements when there are statements to be made, such as the conference opener … on the road … against a vulnerable opponent that you beat by 46 points a year ago.

*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline

*** Episode 1 of the College Hotline podcast, with ESPN’s Ted Miller as guest (we discussed Washington’s rise, UCLA’s transformation to power football, USC’s issues, Utah’s life in the shadows, the Pac-12’s position in the playoff race and loads more):

The post Pac-12 football: Four questions for Week Four appeared first on College Hotline.

Please note: The Hotline will have a new home, and new url, starting Monday. The address will be posted here. Thanks in advance for your understanding.

The Pac-12’s non-conference season is over save for a smattering of dates, two of which involve fast-fading Notre Dame.

The performance thus far is fair-to-middlin’ …:

vs. ACC: 1-0
Big 12: 3-0
Big Ten: 1-3
SEC: 0-2
Power Five: 5-5
FBS: 16-8

The notable results could be broken into a handful of categories:

Best win: Cal 50, Texas 43: Quality victory unto itself given that Texas was ranked 11th when it arrived in Berkeley.

But this also qualifies as the Pac-12’s best win by default. The options — ASU over Texas Tech, Stanford over Kansas State, Oregon over Virginia or UCLA/Utah over BYU — aren’t exactly impressive.

Worst win: Arizona 31, Grambling 21: Wildcats were down 21-3 in the most baffling half of the early season. Those who witnessed it won’t soon forget.

Best loss: Michigan 45, Colorado 28: Perennial Pac-12 bottom feeder holding its own in the home of a Big Ten bully — the Buffs were down just 31-28 late in the third quarter — made for good optics for the conference, which might have to ultimately base its playoff case on quality depth.

Worst loss (FBS): Alabama 52, USC 6: Never good when your flagship football program gets embarrassed with the college football world watching.

Worst loss (FCS): Eastern Washington 45, Washington State 42: EWU isn’t a patsy by any stretch, but these Cougars are supposed to be contenders.

To the ratings …

1. Stanford (2-0/1-0)
Last week: 2
Result: Beat USC 27-10
Next up: at UCLA
Comment: Game 2 of the five-week stretch that looked daunting before the season but now seems somewhat manageable. Still to come: Washington (road), Washington State (home) and Notre Dame (road).

2. Washington (3-0)
Last week: 1
Result: Beat Portland State 41-3
Next up: at Arizona
Comment: The results thus far say Washington wins handily in the Zona Zoo. But the circumstances (jump in competition, first road game, Arizona’s knack for rising to the moment) suggest it could be a struggle for three quarters, at least.

3. UCLA (2-1)
Last week: 3
Result: Won at Brigham Young 17-14
Next up: vs. Stanford
Comment: First and best chance for Bruins to prove this season is different. If you’re skeptical, join the club.

4. Utah (3-0)
Last week: 4
Result: Won at San Jose State 34-17
Next up: vs. USC (Friday)
Comment: A series of favorable matchups in the first half of conference play (USC, Cal, Arizona, OSU) present Utes with opportunity to take charge of the South.

5. Oregon (2-1)
Last week: 5
Result: Lost at Nebraska 35-32
Next up: vs. Colorado
Comment: Brutal news on the injury front with Devon Allen and Tyrell Crosby both done for the season. And Ducks had better not overlook Colorado, or their season will get worse in a hurry.

6. Colorado (2-1)
Last week: 6
Result: Lost at Michigan 45-28
Next up: at Oregon
Comment: Can’t help but recall how WSU went into Eugene and pulled a victory out of its pirate hat. Buffs could be this season’s Cougars.

7. Arizona State (3-0)
Last week: 7
Result: Won at UTSA 32-28
Next up: vs. Cal
Comment: Sun Devils, like Utah and even Colorado, must look at USC’s woes and UCLA’s meandering and feel like the division is wide open.

8. Cal (2-1)
Last week: 9
Result: Beat Texas 50-43
Next up: at Arizona State
Comment: Similarities with Texas Tech’s playbook mean film study should tell Bears exactly what will and won’t work against the Sun Devils. (Hint: A lot of things will work.)

9. USC (1-2)
Last week: 8
Result: Lost at Stanford 27-10
Next up: at Utah (Friday)
Comment: If you name a starting quarterback midway through training camp, then reverse course after just three games, you made the wrong decision initially.

10. Washington State (1-2)
Last week: 10
Result: Beat Idaho 56-6
Next up: Bye, then vs. Oregon
Comment: Bye week in Pullman means one thing: All eyes will be on the police blotter.

11. Arizona (2-1)
Last week: 11
Result: Beat Hawaii 47-28
Next up: vs. Washington
Comment: Wildcats have beaten a top-10 team each of the past four seasons. Much better chance of continuing that streak this week than against Stanford a month from now.

12. Oregon State (1-1)
Last week: 12
Result: Beat Idaho State 37-7
Next up: vs. Boise State
Comment: Upset meter would be flashing if not for fact that Boise State is coming off a bye.

*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline

*** Episode 1 of the College Hotline podcast, with ESPN’s Ted Miller as guest (we discussed Washington’s rise, UCLA’s transformation to power football, USC’s issues, Utah’s life in the shadows, the Pac-12’s position in the playoff race and loads more):

The post Pac-12 football power ratings: Best and worst non-conference performances appeared first on College Hotline.

We’ll update the bowl math, then get into the events of Saturday evening.

At 1-2, the Spartans must win five of their final nine to be eligible for the postseason. Two of those nine are the daunting short-week roadtrips to Boise State and San Diego State.

If you were to reasonably assume losses in both games, the Spartans need to win five of their final seven … they must go 5-2 against teams that aren’t BSU or SDSU.

Based on performance of Mountain West competition thus far, five more wins isn’t out of reach, but SJSU cannot waste chances.

One such opportunity … one of the very best, in fact … comes this week.

Result: Lost to Utah 34-17

Grade: C-

Comment: To keep the game close into the final minutes … much less win it … the Spartans needed Utah to be a half-step off its game, and SJSU had to play pretty darn close to perfect.

The Spartans didn’t approach that standard with three turnovers, which became 17 Utah points, plus 10 sacks allowed.

Yes, it ended as a wipeout, but don’t forget that SJSU jumped to a 10-6 lead before Utah reeled off 28 unanswered points to put the game out of reach.

Three-plus seasons into the Ron Caragher era, is it reasonable to think the Spartans should be more competitive at home against a not-overpowering Pac-12 opponent? You could make the case that it’s not unreasonable at all, actually.

Beyond SJSU’s mistakes and the 17 points Utah scored off said mistakes, the difference was the play up front, which isn’t surprising — Utah is typically as strong as any team in the Pac-12 on the lines of scrimmage.

*** SJSU backup quarterback Josh Love was impressive in his ability to deliver the ball downfield.

Kenny Potter’s mobility is an asset, but he doesn’t have the arm strength for SJSU to constantly push the ball into the middle and deep passing routes.

But Love showed some zip, and zip is essential for stretching the field.

I’m not at all suggesting the Spartans make a quarterback change if Potter is healthy enough to play. But is Love an intriguing option in the future … or if this season goes off the rails? Yes, he is.

*** The sample size is admittedly small — three games — but SJSU’s performance against Portland State (FCS) sure looks like the outlier, at least in three crucial categories:

Turnovers vs. FCS (Portland State): 0
Turnovers vs. FBS (Tulsa and Utah): 6

Rushing yards/game vs. FCS: 409
Rushing yards/game vs. FBS: 54.5

Rushing yards allowed.game vs. FCS: 202
Rushing yards allowed/game vs. FBS: 253

Good thing for the Spartans that their next opponent is FBS in name only …

Next up: at Iowa State

The matchup: Favorable.

Iowa State is the worst team in the Big 12, one of the very worst in all the Power 5 conference. Moreover, the Cyclones are a bad program — they don’t have the talent, depth, recruiting base or resources to compete with the top half of the Big 12.

Consider their recent history:

No winning seasons this decade
3-9 last year
2-10 the year before that
3-9 the year before that

Or consider their very recent history (i.e., this season):

Week One: Loss to Northern Iowa (FCS)
Week Two: Loss to Iowa (by 39)
Week Three: Loss to TCU (by 21)

*** The Spartans opened as a 6-point underdog, and their success depends, to a large extent, on Potter’s health and mobility.

But if they respond well to the early start (9 a.m. PT), and if they keep gaffes to a minimum … they can’t give the Cyclones easy points via turnovers and special teams … there is no reason SJSU can’t win.

The post San Jose State football report card: Grading the loss to Utah appeared first on College Hotline.

Quick thought on the landscape before we dig in: My, how it has changed.

The first-half schedule doesn’t seem so brutal, does it?

We figured USC-UCLA-Washington-Washington State-Notre Dame would be the ultimate test for Stanford and its revamped line and new quarterback. Four of the five were ranked in the preseason poll, and WSU was justifiably on the fringe.

A few weeks later …

* USC is 1-2 and has been outclassed by both Power 5 opponents.
* UCLA is 2-1 and muddling along.
* Washington State is 1-2 with an FCS loss.
* Notre Dame is 1-2 with major issues defensively.

None of them are ranked. Combined record: 5-7.

Only Washington has matched its preseason hype, but that could simply be the cupcake schedule; we have no idea if the Huskies are truly a title contender.

In other words: Opportunity abounds for the Cardinal.

Result: Beat USC 27-10

Grade: A-

Comment: All but two matchups this decade have been decided by single digits and all of them packed drama at some point in the proceeding.

Not this time.

Stanford was in control throughout, which was partly Stanford’s doing and partly USC’s ineptitude, both on the field and on the sideline.

Ram the ball through the heart of Stanford’s defense on one drive … abandon the tact on the next.

Of course! Great coaching!

*** Stanford has now beaten USC three times in a calendar year – all three of the wins were by double digits, by the way — because it knows what’s required for success, and it executes.

The Cardinal ran the ball at will (295 yards), even when USC loaded the box; it limited USC’s big plays;  and it made fewer mistakes: The Trojans had eight penalties, many of them false starts, while Stanford committed just three.

The Cardinal also converted 6-of-13 third downs.

*** Ryan Burns completed 9-of-15 passes for 109 yards – a stat line much like those Kevin Hogan used to produce.

But Burns operated the offense efficiently, avoided bad decisions and did everything Stanford needed him to do for the second consecutive game.

Backup Keller Chryst, who supposed to play at least one series, never left the bench.

The quarterback competition is officially over.

“There was no particular reason; that’s the way it happens,’’ coach David Shaw said. “(Chryst) will continue to be in our thoughts as we move forward.’’

*** Christian McCaffrey carried the Cardinal, with 238 yards from scrimmage – 59 percent of Stanford’s total. But aside from a long touchdown run by receiver Michael Rector on an end-around, McCaffrey’s teammates were quiet.

That’s a precarious model for navigating the Pac-12.

At some point, the Cardinal will encounter an opponent that’s better coached and better prepared than the Trojans. In that situation, it will need more than McCaffrey.

Next up: at UCLA

The matchup: Has anything changed since last year … or any of the past seven years?

The Cardinal has dominated the lines of scrimmage and the series, with eight consecutive wins, six of them by double digits — and the past three by an average of 18 points.

The Bruins declared during the offseason that they intended to become more physical, more of a line-of-scrimmage team … more like Stanford.

Thus far, the results of the transition are hardly conclusive: They have only looked like a contender in stretches, with the best stretch coming against lowly UNLV.

It’s the first road game for Burns, and I expect Stanford to build a gameplan that allows him to ease into the action, that doesn’t place him in high-risk or uncomfortable situations … at least in the first half and/or so long as the game is close.

The Cardinal will run McCaffrey and Bryce Love, with play-action sprinkled in, until the Bruins prove they can stop it consistently. (USC never did.)

UCLA opened as a slight favorite, but the line quickly adjusted: The Cardinal is now -3.

It should be close for 50-55 minutes, with Stanford making the plays down the stretch.

*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline

*** PLEASE NOTE: The Hotline will move to a new address (url) next week. I’ll have more details as the day approaches.

The post Stanford football report card: Grading the win over USC appeared first on College Hotline.

The win becomes official and instantly we seek to define it: The signature victory for coach Sonny Dykes? Cal’s biggest upset since … since?

As upsets go, this was moderate: The Bears were an eight-point underdog at home against the No. 11 team — a team they beat last year on the road, by the way.

Major upsets require a double-digit underdog and/or an opponent ranked much closer to No. 1 (preferably in the top five).

It’s not unreasonable to call it a signature win for Dykes, although one could argue that will only come when he beats one of Cal’s conference rivals (Stanford, Oregon or one of the L.A. schools).

Certainly, it’s the most significant victory of the Dykes era … their most significant since the bottom fell out under Jeff Tedford … and a result that will provide fuel on several fronts.

Front 1: It adds instant credibility each time the coaching staff walks into the home of a Texas recruit.

The Lone Star State is gaining significance for Cal on the recruiting front, partly because Dykes and his staff have Texas roots and partly because of the need to expand the recruiting pool to counterbalance the elevated admissions standards. (More on that here.)

Front 2: Slapping a presumed Big 12 title contender with a head-to-head helps the Pac-12’s cause in the early-but-evolving playoff picture.

Front 3: Cal’s bowl math is notably more manageable with a 2-1 non-conference record than a 1-2 mark.

The Bears need to win four league games, not five, and you can certainly identify a handful of games that they stand a reasonable chance to win.

Result: Beat Texas 50-43

Grade: A

Comment: I thought long and hard about the grade before hitting the shift-A buttons, because yielding 43 points, 568 total yards and 307 yards rushing does not equate to an A-level defensive effort, not by any traditional means.

But Cal does not take a traditional approach to the facet of the game known to many as, you know, defense.

Sometimes, the strategy works, and Saturday night was one of those times — the Bears were in deep, continuous rhythm offensively and able to outscore their opponent in a last-possession-wins manner.

*** Davis Webb, who grew up outside of Dallas and idolized UT quarterback Colt McCoy, was clearly locked in against his home-state team.

Webb completed 27 of 40 passes for 396 yards and four touchdowns — also: no interceptions — and repeatedly connected with receiver Chad Hansen to flummox the Longhorns’ defense.

(Hansen is a wonder, by the way.)

*** But is the Bears’ approach sustainable through nine weeks of conference play? Recent history suggests no:

They opened 2-0 in noncon play two years ago and 3-0 last year, and in neither instance did they produce a winning record within the league.

Currently, they are 126th nationally against the run (out of 128 teams), allowing 296.3 yards per game.

Yep: Two hundred and ninety six, point three.

How many teams at that level challenge for a league or division title?

Zero, point zero.

*** Cal in situational football:

Turnovers: +2
Third-down conversions: 7-15
Red zone TDs: 4-5

Can’t ask for much more on any of those fronts.

*** If we’re to extrapolate … if we’re to examine what the performance suggests about Cal’s pending success/failure in conference play … perhaps the most significant stat was this: 40 and 40

The Bears had 40 rushing attempts and 40 passing attempts.

That, folks, is a big deal.

Dykes and playcaller Jake Spavital talked throughout training camp about the need for balance … about their desire to shed Cal’s previous approach (under then-OC Tony Franklin) to sling the ball 75 percent of the time.

The Bears cannot thrive in conference play without (in Dykes’ words) being able to run the ball successfully when everyone in the stadium knows they’re going to run.

That level of efficiency with the ground game requires commitment, but through two games, Cal didn’t show much commitment: Webb threw 72 passes at San Diego State even though Vic Enwere averaged 7.2 yards per carry.

But Saturday night, Cal was committed. It didn’t always work — Enwere had 17 carries for a meager 56 yards before busting the final run — but it’s a start.

A significant, italics-worthy start.

As for the Bears’ good fortune that Texas didn’t immediately pounce on the Enwere fumble, thereby giving the Longhorns one last possession … well, dumb plays are part of the game, and so is good fortune.

Next up: at Arizona State

The matchup: Favorable.

If you have to open league play on the road, at least make it a winnable game, and this is a winnable game for the Bears. ASU is 3-0, but it’s a soft 3-0:

The Sun Devils beat an FCS team (Northern Arizona), outlasted Texas Tech in pinball (68-55) and had to rally from a double-digit deficit to beat UTSA.

Moving the ball should not be a problem for the Bears, especially given their edge on the scouting front:

Texas Tech and Cal run similar systems — it was laid down in Lubbock years ago by Dykes and Mike Leach — so the Bears can digest what worked/didn’t work for the Red Raiders in Tempe and make the necessary adjustments.

*** ASU opened as a 6.5-point favorite, but the line is already down to 3.5

It should be close, high scoring and long — four hours long.

If turnovers are a wash, the difference will be defensive stops in the fourth quarter.

*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline

*** PLEASE NOTE: The Hotline will move to a new address (url) next week. I’ll have more details as the day approaches.

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