Panelists:

• Reginald Fields (The Plain Dealer)
• Julie Carr Smyth (The Associated Press)
• Dale Butland (Innovation Ohio)
• Bob Clegg (Republican Strategist)/li>

If the economy remains sluggish or declines, President Obama will say, “It coulda been much worse.”  His argument is he entered office facing the worst economic crisis since The Great Depression. Mr. Obama will argue that even though we have not completely recovered, his policies kept the economy from completely collapsing.  Democrats used the “It coulda been much worse” message  in the 2010 mid-term elections. It didn’t work as the unemployment rate remained above 9 percent, well above where it was when President Obama took office.

If the economy continues to improve the coulda, woulda, shoulda burden falls to Mitt Romney.  He argues that yes, the economy was in the dumps, and yes, the economy is getting better, but it coulda been a lot better if I had been president.  Romney will argue President Obama’s increasing government debt and regulation have stifled business growth.

Ronald Reagan in 1984 found himself in nearly the same position President Obama is now. Soon after Reagan took office the unemployment rate soared, going from about 7  percent all the way up to 11 percent.  But by the time he was campaigning against former Vice President Walter Mondale, the unemployment rate was falling and back to that 7 percent mark.  Walter Mondale chose not to run a  It coulda been better campaign, instead focusing on equal rights for women, rising deficits and promising to raise taxes.   Reagan won in a landslide.  Mondale probably shoulda not promised to raise taxes.

Bill Clinton  successfully ran it a coulda been better campaign in 1992 because he had two things on his side.  An economic recovery from a recent recession had yet to take hold and President George H.W. Bush woulda coulda shouda not reneged on his “Read my lips, no new taxes” pledge.

In 1996 Bob Dole tried the It coulda been better tactic.  The US economy was recovering from a recession, but slowly.  Bob Dole argued the  federal debt and taxes were too high and stifling business growth.  Sound familiar?  It didn’t work. Clinton won in a landslide.

The challenge to an incumbent president is always an I coulda done better campaign.  But because of a near economic disaster followed by a very sluggish recovery, 2012 adds a new element of the unknown. Voters will have to assess the unknowable – Is it possible the economic crisis could have been worse and President Obama saved it?  Or is it possible the recovery could have been better if Governor Romney was in charge?

Panelists:

• Laura Bischoff (Dayton Daily News )
• Darrel Rowland (The Columbus Dispatch)
• Sam Gresham (Common Cause Ohio)
• Gene Krebs (Greater Ohio Policy Center)/li>

The Mandel campaign introduces the Republican in two effective ads portraying the Ohio State Treasurer as a work-boot-wearing war veteran, family man, and conservative fiscal watchdog.  The ads have helped Mandel cut Brown’s lead from fifteen points to six.

Sherrod Brown Starts Negative

While Josh Mandel is displaying muddy boots, the Sherrod Brown campaign launched its television ad campaign by slinging mud.  The campaign has run just two ads – both negative. One criticizes Mandel for missing meetings of the board that oversees the state of Ohio’s investments. The other criticizes him for hiring inexperienced political allies to key positions in the treasurer’s office.

Negative Ads Backfired on Strickland

Ted Strickland used this define-your-opponent-first tactic against challenger John Kasich in the 2010 campaign for Ohio Governor.   Strickland went negative right away- trying to tie Kasich to Wall Street and Lehman Brothers, where Kasich worked as a managing director. Strickland’s critics argued the Democrat first should have touted accomplishments like education reform and clean energy incentives with positive ads and then attack his Republican opponent’s Wall Street past.  But observers noted Strickland’s record also included the loss of 400,000 jobs.  Still, many believe Strickland lost his “good guy” appeal by going negative right off the bat.

Brown Faces Same Choice

Sherrod Brown finds himself in the same spot.  Like Strickland, the Ohio economy has worsened during his term, so voters could see positive ads touting Brown’s accomplishments as pure spin.  But like Strickland could have done, Brown could cherry pick some popular accomplishments to tout.  His support of the auto bailout is one President Obama is using and would seem to gain Brown support in manufacturing-rich areas of the state.

Brown’s supporters argue the senator is just fighting back against months of issue ads attacking him.   Fair point, there have been a lot of grainy unflattering pictures of Sherrod Brown on TV for months.   But so far Sherrod Brown has chosen to fight his opponents’ ads – negative and positive with only negative ones.   It did not work for Ted Strickland, and so far it’s not working for Sherrod Brown.

Panelists:

• Joe Hallett(The Columbus Dispatch)
• Reginald Fields (The Plain Dealer)
• Janetta King (Innovation Ohio)
• Mark Weaver (Republican Strategist)

Panelists:

• Jim Siegel (The Columbus Dispatch)
• William Hershey (Writer, Former Statehouse Reporter)
• Sandy Theis (Democratic Strategist )
• Terry Casey (Republican Strategist)

Panelists:

• Cathy Candisky (The Columbus Dispatch)
• Bill Cohen (Ohio Public Radio)
• Greg Haas (Democratic Strategist )
• Mary Anne Sharkey (Public Affairs Consultant)

Panelists:

• Reginald Fields (The Plain Dealer)
• Julie Carr Smyth (The Associated Press)
• Bob Clegg (Republican Strategist )
• Sam Gresham (Common Cause Ohio)

Panelists:

• Darrel Rowland(The Columbus Dispatch)
• Laura Bischoff (Dayton Daily News)
• Dale Butland (Innovation Ohio )
• Terry Casey (Republican Strategist)

Panelists:

• Joe Hallett (The Columbus Dispatch)
• Jo Ingles (Ohio Public Radio)
• Joseph Mas (Ohio Hispanic Coalition)
• Michael Miller (Former Franklin County Prosecutor)