Comments for The Aleph Blog

Comment on On a Concentrated Bond Market by Two Questions on Fixed Income from the Mailbag – The Aleph Blog

Two Questions on Fixed Income from the Mailbag – The Aleph Blog — Mon, 29 Dec 2025 15:46:30 +0000

[…] On a Concentrated Bond Market […]

Comment on Estimating Future Stock Returns, December 2023 Update by Brian Peters

Brian Peters — Fri, 07 Nov 2025 01:18:38 +0000

Any late 2025 update? I’d imagine this model would project negative absolute returns at this point.

Comment on Issues Associated with the Current Election by dearieme

dearieme — Fri, 03 Jan 2025 15:15:29 +0000

Happy New Year, Mr Merkel. I hope it finds you well.

Comment on Issues Associated with the Current Election by dearieme

dearieme — Tue, 05 Nov 2024 15:01:36 +0000

Were I an American I would ask myself whose policies could be more easily reversed in future and I’d vote for that candidate. Then if the policies turn out badly the electorate could vote to reverse them next time.

So I’d hold my nose and vote for Trump.

Comment on Issues Associated with the Current Election by Pacioli

Pacioli — Sat, 02 Nov 2024 19:22:58 +0000

I haven’t visited the site lately, as it seems you’ve been writing less (maybe just my incorrect perception).

I am genuinely curious: when you say “Trump has… evil policies.” To which ones are you referring?

Fair enough on the character comments. But I do not remember any of his policies being “evil”.

Again – genuine question. I am also not a strong supporter of either of the two main candidates.

Comment on Estimating Future Stock Returns, December 2023 Update by Brent Barber

Brent Barber — Tue, 14 May 2024 02:10:47 +0000

I would add non-US stock markets as an area to do well. Pretty much every country has much cheaper markets than the US and don’t need a lot of things to go right to get good returns.

Comment on Estimating Future Stock Returns, March 2023 Update by Brian Peters

Brian Peters — Sun, 18 Jun 2023 17:46:51 +0000

Glad fort the headsup on the data revision and the re-estimation, because when I last ran your weights I was still getting negative returns. You may want to try adding in CAPE excess spread – may be spurious overfitting but it seems to improve the estimate a bit. Love this work, been following it forever, and its is both intuitive and grounding.

Comment on Estimating Future Stock Returns, March 2023 Update by Chuck

Chuck — Sun, 18 Jun 2023 17:44:31 +0000

Thank you – always appreciate these updates! A good reminder not to chase. . .

Comment on Sorted Weekly Tweets by wkevinw

wkevinw — Sun, 09 Apr 2023 23:33:50 +0000

Concord and SF, CA. Left 30 years ago and thought I might be back to live there one day. Now very unlikely.

The Naval Weapons Station is prime real estate, and a very interesting place. I hope they can use it productively, but in CA, who knows?

SF- family goes back to the area almost every year. I haven’t been in SF for almost 10 years now, I think. Last time I was at the Wharf it was OK, but not great; some of the restaurants closed recently. I would have to work to hard to figure out where to avoid now, so I won’t be going.

Thanks for the post.

Comment on Estimating Future Stock Returns, December 2022 Update by dearieme

dearieme — Sun, 26 Mar 2023 15:44:34 +0000

In your old piece: “People overestimate the inflation threat. But if it is going to happen, you can rely on the government to end indexation of benefits and tax brackets before inflation gets strong.”

Prescient! In the UK the tax brackets have been fixed with the result that inflation creates more income for the Treasury through “fiscal drag”.

There has been shouting in the media about stopping the indexation of benefits – especially for the “old age pension” – but the government has resisted so far. That shouting has been accompanied by vituperation against the baby boomers that would be called “hate speech” if the like were directed according to race rather than age.