I don’t think there is any problem making one for yourself, but selling them can get you into trouble (grumble)

I guess Isaac is saying we’re better off dead maybe.

The following is based on first chapter of Foundation. It’s the only actual mathematical anaysis I have yet seen.

An Analysis of Isaac Asimov’s Psychohistory

by Dennis O’Brien

The Mission of psychohistory is to reduce human suffering by altering the course of history.

The Goal of psychohistory is to produce a mathematical model that can predict the future with sufficient accuracy to enable and justify a conscious act to change it.

Definition (by Gaal Dornick): “That branch of mathematics which deals with the reactions of human conglomerates to fixed social and economic stimuli.” (Foundation, p. 17)

First Assumption: “That the human conglomerate being dealt with is sufficiently large for valid statistical treatment.”

- “Seldon’s First Theorem”: Determines the “necessary size of such a conglomerate.”

Second Assumption: “That the human conglomerate be itself unaware of psychohistorical analysis in order that its reactions be truly random.”(1)

Unit of Inquiry - Civilization, it’s development/decline, and its relationship to others.
empire
anarchy

Seldon Functions, “which exhibit properties congruent to social and economic forces.”
All “f( )” are functions, as used in calculus (see below)

f(a) Administration
f(b)
f(c)
f(d) Dependence
f(e) Economics
f(f)
f(g) Governance
f(h) [History](1)
f(i) Industrialization
f(j)
f(k)
f(l)
f(m)
f(n)
f(o)
f(p)
f(q)
f(r) Religion
f(s) Specialization
f(t) Technology
f(u) Urbanization
f(v)
f(w)
f(x)
f(y)
f(z)

f(a): Administration
“enormous population devoted to administrative necessities”
“too few for complications”
“impossibility of proper administration”

f(d): Dependence
“fleets of ships brought the produce”
“dependence upon the outer worlds”
“increasingly vulnerable to conquest by siege”
“policy little more than protection of delicate jugular vein”

f(e): Economics
“contemporary recurrence of periods of economic depression’

f(g): Governance
“probability of imperial assassination”
“viceregal revolt”
“succession becomes more and more uncertain”
“feuds among the great families”
“aristocratic coterie”
“formed an element of order”
“blind instrument for maintenance of the status quo”

[f(h): History (group self-awareness of historical trends, own role)](1)

f(i): Industrialization
“industrially advanced”
“richest”

f(r): Religion (from future chapter)

f(s): Specialization
“more specialized”

f(t): Technology (from future chapter)

f(u): Urbanization
“immensity”
“densely populated”
“urbanization”
“mightiest deed of man, the complete and almost contemptuously final conquest of a world”

Psychological Functions
All “P( )” are human psychological functions. Is there one of these for each historical function? Vice-versa?

P(i): Isolation
“never come up here, gives them nerves”
“doesn’t really matter, they’re happier down there”
P(i)=f(u)+f(s) In English, Isolation is a function of urbanization and specialization.

This is the type of “equation” that shows a relationship, even without units of measure. And it is likely incomplete, as there are likely other factors affecting P(i).

P(sr): Social Responsibility
“social responsibility disappears
P(sr)=f(g)+f(a)+f(r)+f(h) Social Responsibility is a function of governance, administration, religion, and historic self-awareness.

Mathematical Concepts

Inertia and Change: “The psychohistorical trend of a planet-full of people contains a huge inertia. To be changed it must be met with something possessing a similar inertia. Either as many people must be concerned, or if the number of people be relatively small, enormous time for change must be allowed.”

Thus: ?=nt, where ? is the desired change, n the number of people, and t the time involved. The value of ? will likely be derived from other calculations, leaving the psychohistorian then to consider the range of number and time options.

Unit of Measure: n is a number of people, t is a measure of time, which by convention we can say is a year. Thus the unit of measure would be people-years, or PY. If functions and results can be described in terms of people/years, a mathematical structure can evolve.

Every psychohistorical function (“Seldon Function”) affects the inertia of history in the same way that force affects inertia in Newtonian physics, i.e., with varying strength and direction. For purposes of analyzing civilization, direction can be positive-negative, with numbers for strength. E.g., destruction of infrastructure will have a -5.3 effect on nation building, on a scale of -10 to 10. If 1 = 1,000,000, then it’s going to take 5,300,000 people-years to offset the effect of such destruction.

It may be that “results” include the psychological functions described above, which themselves are forces that affect history. They also can be benchmarks: a P(sr) of zero PY neither helps nor hurts civilization, but a -2 PY needs some attention. As an exercise, consider the P(sr) of the USA under the current and former USA administrations and the relative values of the functions that produced them. Start with the formula above. What other functions should be considered?

By assigning values to the functions and testing against past events, it should be possible to at least find relative values for each function. But when it comes to measuring net effect, relative values are all that are needed. Also, by establishing a functions-to-results-to-civilization analysis, we begin to sort out the various cause-and-effects of history, using mathematical symbols and models. This may well lead to a First Approximation of a workable model.

“This is an approximation which will serve to demonstrate the proposition”

Other Mathematical Concepts

“derivation of the function” - appears to refer to the data and analysis that produce a value for any given function
“validity of set-transformation”
“forbidden socio-operation”
“expansions”
“field differentiation”

The Calculus Model

Algebra gives a fixed value to x and other symbols. Calculus can assign more complex values, like the function of x in different situations, e.g., f(x)=sin y from 0-90, csn y from 90-180, which can be much briefer with proper notation.

So if we go back to our basic question, what makes people want to be part of a group, we can assign values to the various functions, then start testing (see above). Someone did this recently with the Greek elections, noting that gender would move the likelihood of a change of government up a few years. Would be interesting to se the mathematics involved with that prediction.

Calculus also establishes rules for equations to work with each other. Like Asimov, I got a B in second-semester calculus and stopped there, and that was decades ago, so insight welcome. See above for hints from Asimov.

Other Results/Outcomes/Subfunctions

“More vulnerable, less able to defend itself.” From f(s)

“A greater prize.” From f(a)

Other Concepts (to be integrated into above, or perhaps something new)

“cut off from civilization”

“owed allegiance”

“declining rate of planetary exploration”

(1) Possibly incorrect, or only necessary as a plot mechanism, or a deliberate mislead by Seldon. Self-awareness of role in history may itself be a separate psychohistorical function. Second Assumption may have been red herring by Seldon: if he really wanted conglomerate to be unaware, why did he say loud and clear in first Time Vault appearance that there was a Second Foundation, and that their path was worked out? An integration of First and Second Foundations appeared the likely end result of the Seldon Plan, along with the final resolution of historical self-awareness. If so, then Second Assumption appears intended only to affect a dynamic tension between the two foundations.

And possibly distract them from a third. But that’s another story, perhaps more romantic than scientific.]

I wonder if our government would ever legalize a drug like that if there were no were no harmful side effects.

I wasn’t trying to say it was not science fiction because of the criticism. The only technology that I remembered was the “hatchery” and the “feelys”. The hatchery was only part of the first 1-2 chapters, which set up the premise for the book. The feely (or sensory enhanced movie) watching happened a few times, I admit. If they were just regular movies, it wouldn’t have changed the book that much.

But I’m not understanding how this is not science fiction novel? Sure there is political/social criticism, but can’t the same be said about a lot of science fiction stories? What is the cutoff point when a science fiction story is no longer considered science fiction due to a story’s use of social/political criticism?

All in good fun, of course. Just playing devil’s advocate here.