Comments for The Sovereign Speculator http://sovereignspeculator.com Thoughts on the markets and the decline of the west Tue, 10 Nov 2009 23:57:50 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 Comment on Trading notes by Graphite http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/11/03/trading-notes/#comment-6741 Graphite Tue, 10 Nov 2009 23:12:27 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2938#comment-6741 USD is sure a tease, I'll give it that. Hochberg's been mentioning 74.50 as a secondary bottom target so I'm sure that's where we'll start higher ;-) USD is sure a tease, I’ll give it that. Hochberg’s been mentioning 74.50 as a secondary bottom target so I’m sure that’s where we’ll start higher ;-)

]]> Comment on Trading notes by Axclr8 http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/11/03/trading-notes/#comment-6740 Axclr8 Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:28:48 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2938#comment-6740 USD ready for a major rebound folks? What say ya? USD ready for a major rebound folks? What say ya?

]]> Comment on Trading notes by GolfBoy http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/11/03/trading-notes/#comment-6697 GolfBoy Sat, 07 Nov 2009 01:36:14 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2938#comment-6697 I realize you're kidding, Paul, but actually Prechter belongs to the Triple Nine Society, which requires an IQ of about 150 (thus making him smarter than "99.9%"). I realize you’re kidding, Paul, but actually Prechter belongs to the Triple Nine Society, which requires an IQ of about 150 (thus making him smarter than “99.9%”).

]]> Comment on Trading notes by Paul http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/11/03/trading-notes/#comment-6693 Paul Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:33:03 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2938#comment-6693 AXclr8, Prechter has balls, no question. The problem is, he doesn't have any brains!:) AXclr8,
Prechter has balls, no question. The problem is, he doesn’t have any brains!:)

]]> Comment on Trading notes by hcrosby http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/11/03/trading-notes/#comment-6692 hcrosby Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:48:50 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2938#comment-6692 As of this morning (Nov 5) that chart for gold could hardly be more bullish. It remains my view that we can have a waterfall decline in the stock market while the gold/dollar exchange rate continues to favor gold. Why? In my view, because the entire world of paper money is engaged in a battle of competing currency devaluations...who can run the biggest deficits, hand out the most candy, etc. The FED's ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) pretty much assures a dollar decline vis a vis gold. As of this morning (Nov 5) that chart for gold could hardly be more bullish.

It remains my view that we can have a waterfall decline in the stock market while the gold/dollar exchange rate continues to favor gold.

Why? In my view, because the entire world of paper money is engaged in a battle of competing currency devaluations…who can run the biggest deficits, hand out the most candy, etc. The FED’s ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) pretty much assures a dollar decline vis a vis gold.

]]> Comment on Trading notes by Axclr8 http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/11/03/trading-notes/#comment-6683 Axclr8 Thu, 05 Nov 2009 21:12:10 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2938#comment-6683 Precheter's got some Balls for sure: http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/367008/Bob-Prechter-Bear-Market-Rally-Is-Over-Stocks-Headed-For-New-Lows Bob Prechter: Bear Market Rally Is Over, Stocks Headed For New Lows Precheter’s got some Balls for sure:

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/367008/Bob-Prechter-Bear-Market-Rally-Is-Over-Stocks-Headed-For-New-Lows

Bob Prechter: Bear Market Rally Is Over, Stocks Headed For New Lows

]]> Comment on Trading notes by Axclr8 http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/11/03/trading-notes/#comment-6679 Axclr8 Thu, 05 Nov 2009 04:29:53 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2938#comment-6679 Aki: Good points .... once we have massive bullishness ... it has to be pervasive ... that is the BULL trap .... not yet IMO ... we need to get far away from the death fall last year for people to forget it ... however, my fear is that the bearishness has become pervasive as you mentioned with the number of hits on Mish etc ... unemployment ... etc ... Aki: Good points …. once we have massive bullishness … it has to be pervasive … that is the BULL trap …. not yet IMO … we need to get far away from the death fall last year for people to forget it … however, my fear is that the bearishness has become pervasive as you mentioned with the number of hits on Mish etc … unemployment … etc …

]]> Comment on Trading notes by Aki_Izayoi http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/11/03/trading-notes/#comment-6678 Aki_Izayoi Thu, 05 Nov 2009 02:56:10 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2938#comment-6678 I agree with Max... this market experience told me not to follow the (bearish) crowd, and put fundamentals before sentiment and technicals. I think one has to focus more on the short term and use tight stops when the crowd agrees with your macro views. BTW, Mish (and the deflationists) are no longer a contrarians; they are the crowd. Look at the hit counter on Mish's blog... 29 million hits. PZ's blog (for comparison) has 61 million hits although he was popular before the credit crisis. Also, go to Market Oracle, and Seeking Alpha. Count how many bullish articles are there. The real dilemma is that stocks are "fairly priced" if one uses the assumptions of mild deflation (which would occur slowly enough to allow borrowers to pay their debts thus reducing the need for mass liquidations, cash would be valuable since everyone wants it to pay off debt and its value isn't eroded by inflation, and lower nominal interest rates which would increase the present value of future cash flows.) Going long on stocks isn't a value play, but it is contrarian. One has to look for good technical and sentiment set ups before switching to a long position. I have a short/medium term bearish bias, but I think it is quite likely that we will retest the new highs before a real crash happens. It seems the market wants to go down and create another bear trap but the good news seems to be keeping it up. I agree with Max… this market experience told me not to follow the (bearish) crowd, and put fundamentals before sentiment and technicals. I think one has to focus more on the short term and use tight stops when the crowd agrees with your macro views. BTW, Mish (and the deflationists) are no longer a contrarians; they are the crowd. Look at the hit counter on Mish’s blog… 29 million hits. PZ’s blog (for comparison) has 61 million hits although he was popular before the credit crisis.

Also, go to Market Oracle, and Seeking Alpha. Count how many bullish articles are there. The real dilemma is that stocks are “fairly priced” if one uses the assumptions of mild deflation (which would occur slowly enough to allow borrowers to pay their debts thus reducing the need for mass liquidations, cash would be valuable since everyone wants it to pay off debt and its value isn’t eroded by inflation, and lower nominal interest rates which would increase the present value of future cash flows.) Going long on stocks isn’t a value play, but it is contrarian. One has to look for good technical and sentiment set ups before switching to a long position.

I have a short/medium term bearish bias, but I think it is quite likely that we will retest the new highs before a real crash happens. It seems the market wants to go down and create another bear trap but the good news seems to be keeping it up.

]]> Comment on Trading notes by Max http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/11/03/trading-notes/#comment-6675 Max Thu, 05 Nov 2009 02:08:49 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2938#comment-6675 My sense is that the general public is bearish. The labor market is still terrible. Even though business is up, nobody is hiring. The near-death experience has made corporate management ultra conservative (which incidentally, will be good for profits). My sense is that the general public is bearish. The labor market is still terrible. Even though business is up, nobody is hiring. The near-death experience has made corporate management ultra conservative (which incidentally, will be good for profits).

]]> Comment on Trading notes by Axclr8 http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/11/03/trading-notes/#comment-6671 Axclr8 Wed, 04 Nov 2009 14:53:14 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2938#comment-6671 Still too much bullishness ... however, the buy on the dip is reducing now ... people just have to forget how bad it was ... negativity is the bullish propellant ... in a wierd way ... so, the more time we get away from the initial crash, the more time the media has to be bullish again and paint a rosy picture .... Iwith a minor bottom comming up in Dec ... I still think the market will go higher in Q1 and then it's downhill after that ... but who knows! Still too much bullishness … however, the buy on the dip is reducing now … people just have to forget how bad it was … negativity is the bullish propellant … in a wierd way … so, the more time we get away from the initial crash, the more time the media has to be bullish again and paint a rosy picture …. Iwith a minor bottom comming up in Dec … I still think the market will go higher in Q1 and then it’s downhill after that … but who knows!

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