Wow - very awesome subject. I am goin to write about it too!!

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Hi! I was surfing and found your blog post… nice! I love your blog. Cheers! Sandra. R.

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No, I didn’t. Perhaps you’re right and more details are given elsewhere. I just would have appreciated just a little more explanation also in that article. Probably because I’m always slightly more interested in methods than in results… :o)

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About the methods… have you tried to track other publications by the same authors? probably they gave away some technicalities in other and more specialistic journals.
Applying the model to only two scenarios doesn’t mean much, although it can be an interesting exercise. It would be interesting to know what results they got for Palestine, Rwanda, Sudan, etc etc…
Probably Yugoslavia and India were chosen for the lesser extent of foreign influence in the conflict, which would complicate the (metaphorical) equation enormously.

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@Klystron: publishing on Science can certainly benefit Psychohistory (or at least the basic idea behind it) to be considered more seriously from serious people. For most people (including 49% of myself) it was just science-fiction..

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L’ultimo autore (che di solito e’ il capo) ha un nome decisamente molto ebraico. Chissa’ cosa dice il modello riguardo alla Palestina.. ci metto il collo che lo hanno applicato anche li ma non hanno pubblicato il risultato

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Of course I do!
Actually this was the first thing I was thinking and I am mentioning it in the first line of the post..

Yes, we definitely miss the great Asimov, a kind of spiritual father for me. Probably the person I’ve never personally met who influenced most my life..

btw, on 6th of April there will be 17 years from his death.
And his books still sell quite good (since 1952 actually), despite I am convinced we live in times where most people cannot appreciate the deepness and geniality of his visions.
for me immortal..

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I’ve recently read this paper. Indeed an interesting new branch of research. Unfortunately, they focus a lot on their results and give only little detail on the methods. I guess this is usual for these “boulevard” journals like Science and Nature, and that’s why I prefer “real” scientific journals…

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Do you remember PsychoHistory? Hari Seldon would agree with this theory.

(ah, dr. Asimov, how we miss you…)

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Just brief footnote: H’s interpretation is no longer considered up-to-date, quite understandably, and the hungry reader will find modern physicists with much more to say on the subject.
(Consider this as a “don’t tell me i didn’t tell you” kind of remark.)

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