Communications Breakdown

More on access and services

2013-05-10T12:49:00.000+02:00

Telecoms is moving away from its 4 traditional silos: fixed voice, broadband, TV and mobile. A more compelling way of looking at it now is (see previous post): Two enablers: Devices (portable and non-portable) Access (fixed and mobile) Two classes of services: Communication (voice/video calls, text/IM/chat, M2M) Entertainment (TV/catch-up/VOD, gaming) And thus: This could be the basis

The new dichotomy of connectivity and services

2013-05-07T11:54:00.001+02:00

Technological innovation, competition and regulation shape the telecoms sector. The entry of OTT providers has one the one hand been more of the same, but on the other hand it is causing big changes. If we take a step back to see how the sector changed over the past two decades or so, this is what appears to be going on. First, let's look at what we have to work with: Telecoms is a privatised

Ziggo: piecing together an OTT mobile strategy

2013-04-27T19:39:00.001+02:00

Fixed-line operators are looking to (re)enter the mobile market, despite threats from OTT, other competition, regulation and a stretched balance sheet. BT bought spectrum and is now looking for a partner. Virgin Media UK has an MVNO and plans a VoIP app. Ziggo appears to take its own route, involving WiFi, femtocells, an MVNO and a VoIP app. Here's how it may work. WiFi. All customer modems

Ziggo's share price rise: the good, the bad and the ugly

2013-04-24T02:36:00.000+02:00

Ziggo's share prise has been on the rise over the past few months, despite deteriorating results. There are (at least) three possible explanations: The good: investors are banking on a return to growth, based on either mobility or yet another off-net revenue stream. The bad: investors are assuming that existing strategies (marketing and up-selling) can restore growth. The ugly: investment

KPN: preview to 13Q1 results (April 23)

2013-04-21T22:35:00.001+02:00

KPN's 13Q1 results are due April 23, before the market opens. Looking back to the 12Q4 results: Weakened results. Rights issue announced. Guidance: NL: market share broadband 40%, longer term 45%, market share mobile >40%, 'leading' on the Business/ICT market; overall stabilisation toward 2014; EBITDA margin mid term 40-45%. Germany: long-term market share 20%, margin 30-35%; 2013 margin

Doing FTTC is ignoring a family of elephants in the room

2013-04-16T03:34:00.000+02:00

The reasons to do FTTC/VDSL/vectoring instead of FTTH are obvious: they are about capex (cheaper) and demand (supposedly there isn't any). But when BT, DT and the Coaliton in Australia gamble on FTTC, it creates a family of elephants in the room. If you want to do FTTC, that's fine, as long as you acknowledge that it has a few issues. 1. Cost It may save on capex, but FTTH saves on opex. And

Tele2 NL: preview to 13Q1 results (April 18)

2013-04-16T02:23:00.000+02:00

Tele2's results are due April 18, before the markets open. Looking back to the 12Q4 results: Relatively strong in mobile, weak in fixed broadband. Revenue still down, EBITDA weak as a result of losses in mobile. Tele2 has now finally entered the NGA world of FTTH and LTE. Guidance for the mobile activities in NL: Revenue SEK 1,600-1,700m (EUR 185-200m) (2012: EUR 105m) EBITDA negative SEK 50

Ziggo: preview to 13Q1 results (April 17)

2013-04-15T16:55:00.002+02:00

Ziggo's results are due April 17, before market opening. Looking back to the 12Q4 results: Revenue growth fell back to 1.4%; slowdown caused by weak telephony results (free on-net calls, FTA reduction, lower AMPU), less steep annual price increases; increased competition; no real growth for paid digital TV services (peaks at around 900k). Net adds digital TV zero (remaining analog viewers

SingTel Investor Day: March 15, 2013

2013-03-28T02:02:00.002+01:00

Short highlights from the SingTel Investor Day, March 15, 2013. Group Consumer (Singapore, Australia): Optus to launch TD-LTE in 2300 band 13H1 (slide 9). Group Enterprise: Market overview (slide 4), growth areas (slide 16). Consumer Singapore: Doubling the price for excess data usage April 2013 (slide 3) to 10.70 SID/GB (EUR 6.75). [Not quite as cheap as T-Mobile USA's new rate.] Interesting

Tele2 sells Tele2 Russia

2013-03-28T01:11:00.000+01:00

Highlights from this transaction, which didn't come unexpectedly after the company wasn't able to secure a 3G or 4G license (hence no data). In 12Q4, Russia was the largest contributor to the Group's revenue with 30%. Next to be sold Croatia? There is a different reason why the sale is no big surprise. Less than two months ago Jere Calmes was appointed CEO of Tele2 Russia. His LinkedIn profile

Cisco VNI: highlights

2013-03-26T17:13:00.000+01:00

Besides findings such as 'Global mobile data traffic grew 70 percent in 2012', the most recent Cisco VNI report (Feb. 6, 2013) contains other interesting material (the picture is a heatmap, showing where and when LTE will be deployed). Mobile data traffic growth in S Korea, China, Japan was ~100% in 2012, versus ~40% for Australia and Italy. Telefonica's and Vodafone's blended growth was ~35%.

How relevant is the Dutch 4G auction?

2013-02-04T11:55:00.002+01:00

At first sight, an auction is business-as-usual, a non-event. Spectrum: simply a license renewal. Taking a closer look, it looks quite exciting: Spectrum: a lot of licenses, technology-neutral, up for grabs. New entrant: from 3 to 4 MNOs. Technology: from 3G to 4G. However: New entrant: Tele2 is an MVNO already. End-users will not care. Technology: upgraded 3G (HSPA) can match 4G

Gaming as a managed service?

2013-01-29T21:45:00.002+01:00

We have been doing a report for the regulator on the OTT-market. Our approach was to split services as follows (fixed and mobile have been thrown together - after all, networks are being fiberized while sharing the backhaul and long-haul and the access portion is becoming less relevant: copper, coaxial, fiber, 3G, 4G, WiFi): Communication Text-based (with or without pictures/video) Managed

Ziggo going ex growth on the digital TV market

2013-01-27T17:03:00.001+01:00

Here is the analogue-to-digital conversion ratio for Ziggo (digital net additions divided by analogue net deletions). As you can see below (blue line), the ratio used to be roughly around 80 percent for three years (consumers only). Meaning: of all analogue deletions, around 80% would return as a Ziggo digital customer and the other 20% would defect to a different platform (IPTV, DTH, OTT-only).

Akamai 12Q3 in brief

2013-01-23T15:53:00.000+01:00

Akamai State of the Internet report 12Q3

2013-01-23T13:14:00.001+01:00

Some overall stats from the 12Q3 State of the Internet report from Akamai: Fixed: global average connection speed -7% qoq and +11% yoy to 2.8 Mb/s global average peak connection speed -1.4% qoq and +36% yoy to 15.9 Mb/s global high BB (>10 Mb/s) adoption rate +8.8% qoq to 11% global broadband (>4 Mb/s) adoption rate +4.8% qoq to 41% Mobile: average connection speeds on mobile networks

European telecoms assets for sale

2013-01-22T11:20:00.000+01:00

America Movil, AT&T and perhaps France Télécom are looking at telecoms assets in Europe. Let's see what could be for sale right now: Deutsche Telekom: T-Mobile in Austria, the Netherlands and Albania, Bulgaria DT and FT: EE in the UK Telefónica: UK and Germany KPN: E-Plus (Germany) and Base (Belgium) Tele2: Russia, Germany, Austria TeliaSonera: Yoigo (Spain) Vivendi: SFR (and Maroc Telecom and

What we like about Google

2013-01-18T12:43:00.002+01:00

There are many things to like about Google. We grouped them around three themes: Advertsing-based business model: It implies drawing people to its services, i.e. making great products and services. The risk of this model is to be focussed on the masses and producing more of the same, but there appears to be plenty of room for 'the long tail'. Open platforms such as Android (Chrome, Widevine

The case against technology-neutral spectrum

2013-01-18T10:13:00.000+01:00

Rewheel showed that 'independent challengers' add a lot to competition in mobile markets in Europe. The E5 (DT, FT, TEF, TI, VOD) have a combined market share of 80% across 27 nations. There are indie challengers in 14 of those. In the other 13, minimum prices can be 140% higher. Competition in telecoms is limited as a result of an extremely high entry barriers. In fixed markets, it is legacy

Smartphones add a sense: smell (what about a thermometer?)

2013-01-07T12:42:00.001+01:00

If a smartphone's core competencies are the software and the touch screen, then it has to be added that there are more senses in a smartphone: Sight: it has a camera. Hearing: it has a microphone. Touch: it has a touch screen Balance and acceleration: it has a gyroscope and accelerometer. Time: it has a clock. That leaves (apart from temperature) smell. And that is now to be added through a

Tele2 Capital Markets Day: highlights

2012-12-14T10:18:00.001+01:00

Overall: moving from Discounter to Best Deal and now to Value Champion. Sweden: Comviq discounter brand, Tele2 Value Champion brand. 3P on OA networks by YE 2013: 600k households. Norway: Focus on network roll-out. Coverage 75% mid 2013. Auction (800, 900, 1800) coming 13Q1. Kazakhstan (Tele2 51%, Asianet Holding 49%): EBITDA-breakeven by 13H2. Network coverage 92% in 2015 (today 80%).

Deutsche Telekom Capital Markets Day (3): highlights Germany

2012-12-07T15:43:00.002+01:00

General: "We believe highspeed network quality will be key differentiator". Rev stabilisation in 2014. LTE: Coverage to 85% by 2016 (from 38% now). Peak performance 75 Mb/s in 800, 150 Mb/s in 1800 band. Capex 1800 70% lower than HSPA (in terms of capex per Mb/s) Fiber (FTTC): Speed FTTC max 50/10 Mb/s, with vectoring 100/40 Mb/s Capex FTTC + vectoring 70% lower than FTTH (in terms of

Deutsche Telekom Capital Markets Day (2): highlights Europe

2012-12-07T14:54:00.001+01:00

Market revenues estimates 2012-2015 from EUR 65 to 67 billion: Blue Ocean CAGR +6% mobile internet EUR 4 to 6 bn connected home EUR 10 to 11 bn IP services EUR 5 to 8 bn B2B/ICT EUR 17 to 19 bn Red Ocean CAGR -6% DT targets: Blue Ocean CAGR 2012-2015 12% and raise to 28% share of rev. Red Ocean: indirect cost redux cum EUR 0.6bn (6%) by 2015, direct cost decrease 2% by 2015. One DT

Deutsche Telekom Capital Markets Day (1): highlights overall

2012-12-07T01:12:00.000+01:00

From Deutsche Telekom's Capital Markets Day. Dividend to be lowered. Capex to be stepped up, focus on LTE and FTTC. Focus on cloud, partnerships with Microsoft (Office 365) and Box (Box Business). Growth markets: B2B/ICT, mobile data, TV; will go to 40-45% of rev by 2015 (2010: 24%). Revenues to return to growth by 2014 (Germany stabilising, USA only from 2015). Dividend policy to be

Scarcity-based business models may elicit government intervention

2012-11-21T10:00:00.000+01:00

Government intervention in the broadband market conflicts with free markets. It arises from fears of market failure as a result of: Ineffective duopoly i.e. oligopoly and too little competition. Underinvestment by the incumbent, the cable company, and challengers. Scarcity-based business model at both the incumbent and (if any) the local cable company. About scarcity vs. abundance as the