Consilience

The media isn't very good.

2010-06-21T12:08:00.000-05:00

Fargo: Wave of the Future

2010-04-05T21:07:00.004-05:00

Fargo makes a David Brooks column:

Over the next 40 years, Kotkin argues, urban downtowns will continue their modest (and perpetually overhyped) revival, but the real action will be out in the compact, self-sufficient suburban villages. Many of these places will be in the sunbelt — the drive to move there remains strong — but Kotkin also points to surging low-cost hubs on the Plains, like Fargo, Dubuque, Iowa City, Sioux Falls, and Boise.

I'll take it, but I think I speak for many others when I ask if Detroit can finally get a little love too. C'mon man, can they catch a break already?

Awesome, yet disturbing

2010-04-04T21:08:00.001-05:00

Cheese Frog!

What's with the crown and laugh at the end like Vincent Price at the conclusion of the Thriller video?

Venn Diagrams That Explain Our Fascination With Venn Diagrams

2010-04-04T20:11:00.002-05:00

That would be clickable....here.

A Special Race

2008-06-05T03:28:00.002-05:00

I've said to friends for months that an Obama-McCain race would be the most edifying one the country has seen in decades. It would pit two men with stark policy differences, a matching instinct for reform (though McCain's policies don't match his instincts nearly as well as they did eight years ago), and strong integrity.

We've seen multiple examples that the race will be different, including the series of Lincoln-Douglas that seems to be in the works, and both candidates decrying their parties' worst crimes of mindless partisanship.

Today, we learn from The Hill of another instance where Obama yet again puts his money where his mouth is on bringing people together.

So You Say Iggy's Coming to Town?

2008-05-30T15:17:00.001-05:00

Best tour rider ever.

#&$* Grapefruit

2008-02-25T12:33:00.001-06:00

See, this is what I've been saying, people! In my own head. Without profanity.

SNL Redux

2008-02-24T10:29:00.003-06:00

I haven't been a big fan of Saturday Night Live for a long time. The show isn't bad - well, some of it is - but the good parts aren't compelling enough to get me to the TV.

That said, as a political junkie if nothing else I had to watch last night's return from the writer's strike. First portrayal of Barack Obama, Mike Huckabee doing a walk-on, geek's dream Tina Fey hosting... I couldn't ask for much more.

The promise seemed to dissipate from the get-go. SNL chose to parody Thursday's Democratic debate on CNN, the dominant theme being the media being "in the tank" for Obama.

It says something about Obama that, after waiting for months, the thing SNL chose to make fun of him about is not actually about him (directly, anyway). They made fun of the media. Even Obama's mannerisms were not much parodied for comic effect, just exaggerated.

They hit the Hillary Clinton angle right on the head, going after her campaign's increasingly ludicrous spinning of her blowout losses in recent states. Is Obama too hard a target? Isn't there anything else to make fun of him about?

Then again, maybe his mannerisms were being made fun of, and the impression was just incompetent. There are no maybes about that last; the portrayal was godawful. It was barely recognizable as Obama, and as unfunny as I can recall one of SNL's famous presidential candidate impressions being.

The other problem was the choice to parody the debate. The idea that the media loves Obama has some truth to it, but as far as I could tell, none of it was on display at the CNN debate. Why not do a "Hardball" sketch with Darrell Hammond's Chris Matthews, who often is accused of disliking Clinton and loving Obama, leading the charge? It's the pundits who are generally accused of being in the tank, not news people like Campbell Brown and John King.

Huckabee also appeared on Weekend Update and reminded us once again why he's gotten so much mileage out of this campaign. He not only made fun of himself, but did it with excellent comic timing. Rock on, Mike. As long as I don't have to worry about you actually getting elected.

The episode completely redeemed itself, however, near the end of the show, with a pitch-perfect impression of "There Will Be Blood's" Daniel Plainview hosting "I Drink Your Milkshake" on the Food Network. The audience didn't seem to get it, but it's already entered the realm of classic SNL sketches for me, alongside "The McLaughlin Group," "Toonces the Driving Cat," and...well, too many others to name.

Comics generally seem to have a hard time knowing how to make fun of Obama. SNL proved last night to be no different. Overall though, a pretty good show.

Predictification

2008-02-21T13:25:00.005-06:00

Some predictions I've been mulling. And yes, I'll try to never include an easy one on these kinds of lists.

1. Barack Obama will beat John McCain in a landslide in November, sweeping purple states, and turning a number of formerly solid red states blue. He'll pick up a few southern states (like Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina, Arkansas) at least, and possibly more, and they are likely to remain long-term in the Democratic column.

2. Obama will win both Ohio and Texas on March 4th, and Hillary Clinton will drop out of the race sometime in the first half of March.

3. Calls for Clinton to become Senate Majority Leader (the job she's much better suited for) will greatly increase, and in the end it will happen.

4. Obama will be compared to Ronald Reagan in another way, as people begin calling him the next "Teflon president."

5. McCain will eventually be forced to choose between Independents and what passes today for conservatives, as the former begin to realize how much he's had to alter his tone and positions to become the GOP nominee. Independents will break for Obama.

6. Many will call for McCain and especially Obama to form thin shadow presidencies in the Senate an push major legislation, but they will only partially materialize. Things are too difficult to get done in the Senate already, and that trend will only amplify as neither Obama nor McCain will want to be seen as letting the other win significant accomplishments.

7. Republicans will largely blame their defeat on McCain rather than the blindly obvious weaknesses in their own agenda, tone, and dearth of ideas. In that sense, McCain's nomination will delay, perhaps for many years, the reforms needed to revitalize the Party.

8. Obama's election will usher in a new liberal era, but one that is reborn much truer to its 1950s roots than a rehash of that of the 1970s and '80s.

9. My dog will remain quite dim, but everyone will continue to love him anyway.

2008-02-20T14:37:00.002-06:00

For some of the worst political analysis you will ever see, look no farther than John Derbyshire today.

Memo to the DNC: You are fielding two lackluster candidates here. What’s more, they will get weaker, as the Clinton-Obama scrapping knocks coats of paint from off both of them between now and August. No doubt John McCain will trip over his tongue a time or two, but he won’t be doing any scrapping. Doesn’t need to. Within his party, he’s a winner. Everybody likes a winner. Are you guys worried yet? You should be.

Uh...huh. Yes, two lackluster candidates, two that have been positively blowing the doors off voting records in every single state they've been in, and far outpacing the GOP at every turn. The one who is now the presumptive nominee who has been draw rapt, delirious crowds everywhere from New York to Boise, Idaho.

"Everybody likes a winner?" That's the best you've got for McCain? And that's going to lead to Al Gore becoming the nominee? I...you know, I really don't need to continue, because pieces like this that show almost no tether to reality filet themselves. There is displayed nothing but misapplied generalities and a shockingly poor understanding of voter behavior and, in particular, their sentiment this cycle.

Seriously, I double-checked to see if it was April 1st and I just forgot.

Hey Dude

2008-02-15T11:56:00.001-06:00

Via Andrew Sullivan, a young man who believes the '60s was the golden age of pop, Bono notwithstanding.

Barack Obama Thinks That Tie Looks Great on You

2008-02-14T19:45:00.001-06:00

Or something like that.

You...Are My Number One...ah-Girl

2008-02-04T17:44:00.000-06:00

So Jack Nicholson called into Rick Dees' radio show this morning to pitch his support of Hillary Clinton.

I recall reading a week or three ago the infamous wolf being interviewed for the release of "The Bucket List," saying he was hoping for one last great romance in his life. Well, they say nothing warms up a girl like an endorsement.

I'm just sayin'.

New Hampshire Played a Role

2008-01-27T02:19:00.000-06:00

I wrote after New Hampshire:

This is indeed a "change election," and until late Tuesday, that seemed about to include wholesale changes to Hillary Clinton's staff. Some moves have still been made, but I can't help wondering if her narrow New Hampshire victory might end up hurting her in a way.

That is, will it give her a false sense that her campaign got things figured out in the days before Tuesday, and forestall some changes that really are necessary?

I think in part it did. Michelle Cottle digs in here. Since TNR requires a login, I've included the full article below.

It's amazing how quickly Clinton's campaign put on the inevitability mask after two narrow victories. Instead of a less-than-expected South Carolina victory tonight for Barack Obama, though, they face a massive backlash of their own doing. Nobody saw a 29-point victory coming.

Maybe Mark Penn or another key player will be quietly kicked downstairs, and perhaps that will help. But what do you do if your biggest problem turns out to be (and it may) your husband and your own most basic political instincts to do anything it takes to win?

Full article:

Putsch in Hillaryland by Michelle Cottle
The Clinton campaign's silent shake-up.
Post Date Friday, January 25, 2008

The morning after is never pretty. In the wake of defeat in the Iowa caucus, it was a sad and sorry Team Hillary that assembled for a conference call with the candidate. Campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle, in transit back to Washington, was absent. Top strategist Mark Penn was dazed and subdued, waiting for the candidate to come on the line. When she did, Hillary gave a brief greeting making clear that there would be no navel-gazing and that she was ready to look ahead, according to a participant in the call who was already on the ground in New Hampshire (desperately seeking guidance). Adopting the same ready-for-business tone, message guru Mandy Grunwald tried to spur conversation by asking other top advisers if they wanted to share any thoughts. Nothing. After a pregnant pause, Hillary jumped back in to talk for a few minutes about what she saw as the next step. Again, she was met by silence that stretched out awkwardly until a displeased Hillary snipped, "This has been very helpful talking to myself," and hung up on the group.

Post-Iowa, even the most blindly devoted members of Team Hillary could see that a shake-up of the campaign was in order. The peculiarities of Iowa's caucus system aside, broad structural and tonal problems needed to be addressed. So, as a devastated top leadership struggled to make sense of what had happened, the candidate went to work: Plans were made to bring in new blood; rumors circulated about who among the senior staff would be booted after New Hampshire. But then--surprise!--Granite State voters smiled on the Clinton clan once more, delivering Hillary a political resurrection even more stunning than Bill's 1992 comeback. The troops were elated. The generals were relieved. The candidate was glowing and crowing about her found voice. It was a grand and glorious triumph. Except...

The campaign still needed shaking. The percolating trouble brought to the surface in Iowa could not be ignored. But how to accomplish this without damaging the campaign's miraculous new momentum? Especially when much of the discord, say multiple insiders, flowed from decision-makers at the very top of the pyramid.

For all Team Hillary's gifts, it is not known as a happy group. "I've never seen a campaign where everyone feels so bad about themselves," says one campaign staffer, echoing others. This may be somewhat unavoidable: Too much is on the line. Everyone is exhausted. The public scrutiny (damn those scrounging reporters!) is relentless. But compounding these generic stressors, say insiders, has been the fear-inducing, high-handed leadership of the coterie of überadvisers known as "the Five."

High atop Hillary's disciplined, leakproof operation, Solis Doyle, along with Penn, Grunwald, policy chief Neera Tanden, and communications director Howard Wolfson, have kept an iron grip on everything from ideas to access. Characterized by their colleagues--and even themselves--as a collection of brilliant but not especially likable political talents, the Five are seen by many insiders as contributing to the candidate's image problem. Even those who profess fondness for individual members admit that none makes a compelling Face of the Campaign. So, when Team Hillary hit its Iowa speed bump, the thoughts of many immediately turned toward shattering the hold of the Five.

In any given situation, the first member of this inner circle to be targeted for abuse is Penn. The reasons are legion: his high profile; his right-of-center politics; his myopic focus on issues; his dismissal of the need for Hillary to get personal and address her likability problem; his unusual dual role as top strategist and pollster; and, of course, his famously rough manner. It's little wonder that all those insiders who didn't care for Penn when the team was riding high were salivating at the idea of prying the campaign from his cold dead hands as things turned south in Iowa. But, despite political watchers crediting Hillary's comeback to her at last getting personal (a move Penn had fought against in favor of more Iron Lady messaging), New Hampshire bought Penn a reprieve.

Instead, the adviser most damaged by Iowa may be the one closest to the candidate: Hillary's longtime scheduler and alter ego, Solis Doyle. Among the most devout members of Hillaryland, Solis Doyle is cheered by supporters as an "unconventional" choice for campaign manager. Detractors are less kind, noting that even some of Hillary's most trusted advisers have long questioned Solis Doyle's readiness for the job. Clinton money man Terry McAuliffe is said to have expressed reservations early on, including in a conversation with the Clintons during the couple's January 2006 trip to the Dominican Republic, according to someone there with the group. (McAuliffe denies this.) Similarly, several weeks before the campaign's official launch, a handful of the most senior Hillarylanders met with the senator to express eleventh-hour doubts about Solis Doyle, says someone Hillary spoke with after the meeting.

No one denies that Solis Doyle's authority stems less from her expertise or political savvy (though defenders insist she has an abundance of both) than from her bond with Hillary. The result, say critics, is a toxic blend of insecurity (about her abilities) and arrogance (about her proximity to the boss). As they tell it, an overwhelmed Solis Doyle has become increasingly temperamental--playing favorites and abusing her relationship with Hillary to control information flow and enhance her own power. "It's become 'The Patti Show,'" snipes a former member of the Clinton White House who remains close to both Clintons. Solis Doyle is said to allow unaddressed issues to pile up, failing to do things like return calls to surrogates in need of direction or contributors in need of stroking. "People are constantly complaining to the senator and other members of the campaign family that their calls aren't being returned," notes one observer who often hears from such people. At the same time, over the course of her management career, Solis Doyle has developed a reputation for mucking around in the weeds, insisting upon signing off on even low-level decisions, such as where to hold a minor event and whether bagels or donuts should be served. (That's not a hypothetical.) She is brutal to staffers who try to circumvent her with a request, and she is not shy about reminding others of her position: When dispatched to Iowa headquarters in the final month, Solis Doyle demanded that in preparation for her arrival walls be erected around the section of the giant bullpen where she would be working.

As the leadership regrouped in the wake of Iowa, Hillary loyalists both inside and outside the campaign began contacting the candidate, offering opinions on What Next. "I've never seen such a sense of empowerment and excitement," recalls the Clinton White House veteran. "The Five disappeared, and it was like the fence that had been stopping ideas from flowing disappeared." Once that "overarching power structure was gone," the person adds, the rest of the team "went into overdrive." So strong was the desire for change that the Granite State miracle, while obviously a godsend, left some staffers deflated as it became clear that the planned overhaul had been derailed.

This is not to suggest that nothing has changed. Despite no heads having rolled, several advisers have been "layered on." Some are veteran Bill Clinton hands, such as former political director Doug Sosnik and ad man Roy Spence. Others are longtime Hillarylanders who had been unofficially pinch-hitting for the campaign all along, including Melanne Verveer (now helping with faith outreach), Lissa Muscatine (speechwriting), Lisa Caputo (surrogate management), Jen Klein (a policy expert lending an occasional hand with speechwriting), and the formidable Evelyn Lieberman, who may be best remembered as the White House deputy chief of staff who booted a certain intern from the West Wing to the Pentagon. Lieberman is often praised as a "grown-up" with the brains and backbone to go toe to toe with any of the Five.

Among insiders keeping score, the new additions mean greater accountability for the Five. Spence is expected to affect the fiefdoms of Penn and Grunwald. The addition of communications mavens like Caputo and Kiki McLean (a veteran of the 1992 campaign who was drafted pre-Iowa to help with surrogates) is a recognition that Wolfson's shop needed reinforcements. Muscatine and Klein, meanwhile, can reinforce Neera Tanden's department, which handles speechwriting.

Then there's Maggie Williams, who refers to herself simply as a "utility player." But no one on Team Hillary questions that she is far more than that. Having served as chief of staff to both Hillary (in the White House) and Bill (at his foundation), Williams has the trust of both the former president and the aspiring one. Hillarylanders point to her as one of the candidate's closest confidantes, the person who "sees into Hillary's soul," "knows what makes her tick," and is arguably more of her "peer" than many other members of the inner circle.

When I asked Williams about her new role, she downplayed it, explaining that she will be doing a little of everything but nothing of note. And, above all, no matter what I may have heard, in no way has she been brought in to manage the team. Her friend Solis Doyle, she said, continues to make all the decisions befitting a campaign manager. As for her broader impact on the office, Williams demurs, "There are so many people over here that I don't think people have even noticed me."

Williams's history with the Clintons is a fraught one. Of the original Hillaryland crew, arguably no one bore the brunt of the scandals and political storms as fiercely. Twice, Williams became the object of intense public and legal scrutiny: first, when the Whitewater probe raised allegations that she had helped obstruct the investigation into Vince Foster's suicide by removing files from his office on the night he died; and, again, when the disputed details of her acceptance of a $50,000 political donation from Johnny Chung earned her an invitation to testify before Congress during the Democrats' 1996 fund-raising scandal. For many political watchers, Williams stood as the poster child for the Clintons' careless disregard of those close to them. At the end of Bill Clinton's first term, a scarred and exhausted Williams, having racked up $350,000 in legal bills, resigned her White House post and fled to Paris for a couple of years with her new husband.

Williams admirers see it as a testament to her devotion to Hillary that she has returned to the fray. It is also a testament to how desperately Team Hillary needed a jolt. And, by all accounts, Williams wasted no time in providing one--her self-deprecating protestations notwithstanding. The Wednesday after New Hampshire, Williams moved into the campaign's Ballston, Virginia, headquarters. Having already reached out to many of the aforementioned Hillarylanders, she promptly began meeting with pre-existing members of every department to assess their problems, ideas, and needs. "It doesn't get any better than to have somebody of her stature come in and say, 'What do you need, and what can I do to help you get things done?'" says one Hillarylander now consulting with Williams. Word from inside HQ is that morale has already improved since Williams's arrival.

Whatever specific tasks they tackle, Team Hillary's latest additions are more broadly intended to open the lines of communication and loosen the grip of the Five. The veteran Hillarylanders in particular--Williams, Verveer, Muscatine, Lieberman--all have direct lines of communication with Hillary, making it that much harder for information to get roadblocked. Unsurprisingly, not everyone is thrilled with the new order. Williams's appearance on the scene, after all, was widely viewed as a vote of no-confidence in Solis Doyle. And, although Williams stresses that she came aboard at Solis Doyle's behest, other insiders report that the wounded campaign manager took the arrival of her old boss rather badly. It provoked considerable comment when, for Williams's first day at HQ, Solis Doyle steered clear of the office, missing key strategy meetings that included the former president himself.

Even so, change proponents remain nervous that, with the sting of Iowa fading, the situation will regress as the Five reassert their primacy. "New Hampshire dulled the sword," sighs one staffer. And, now, with the Nevada wind in its sails, it seems all the more unlikely that an organization that fears revealing internal disunity like most folks fear bird flu will risk dramatic restructuring. But this is the corner into which the campaign has painted itself. Self-defined as a venture marked by stability and discipline, it can't very well start hurling bodies overboard without provoking a media feeding frenzy. Barring another Iowa-sized iceberg, staffers weary of the current direction may need to take solace in whatever minor course corrections can be made. Change may make for a snappy campaign slogan. But, as an organizational strategy, it poses something of an existential dilemma for Team Hillary.

Michelle Cottle is a senior editor at The New Republic.

Throwing Up Hands on Electability

2008-01-21T13:20:00.000-06:00

I've seen quite a few posts suggesting it's highly problematic to determine whether Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama would be more electable in a general election. They're maddening, because though we can never be sure, if you had a gun to your head, Obama would clearly be the guy to bet on.

Jonathan Chait writes about it more convincingly than I could:

Hillary Clinton is a highly unpopular figure. In the last Gallup survey, 50% of respondents have a favorable view of her, and 46% negative. Sometimes her averages goes higher, but sometimes it veers into negative territory. Obama has very high ratings. In the most recent poll, 59% view him favorably, 32% negatively. The difference between plus 4 and plus 27 is enormous--a Detroit Lions v. New England Patriots-size gap.

On top of that, independents who vote in the primaries and caucuses have shown a very strong preference for Obama over Clinton. That is the closest available approximation of a swing voter.

As Chait adds, the idea that the "Republican attack machine" would make any Democrat just as disliked as Clinton is nonsense. It's possible for Obama to become as unpopular, but he'd have to run a dreadful campaign for that to happen. He is a fundamentally different candidate, one who is tailor-made in both word and deed to bring in those swing voters.

One thing to add to Chait's analysis is that the idea that Clinton is already as unpopular as she's going to be misses a major point. That is, the raw nerve the couple rubbed daily while in office has scabbed over. Some of us looked even started looking back a bit fondly, especially in comparison to the current disastrous presidency, and forgot the proximal things that made us so livid.

No more. As the Clintons see a legitimate opponent daring to usurp their rightful throne, the demagoguery, uncomfortably hardball tactics, and outright distortions have begun again. Someone like me now remembers viscerally why I couldn't stand them.

The post finishes with a very insightful point:

That so many Democrats think this question is complicated suggests to me that maybe people aren't good as assessing the popularity of their co-partisans. To Democrats, it's perfectly obvious that the strongest Republican nominee is John McCain. He polls very highly, everybody knows Democrats and Independents who like him, and so on. But Republicans are constantly debating this. You see Republicans spinning horror scenarios of a McCain nomination leading to a splintering base or depressed turnout. To Democrats it's bewildering that they even debate this. Lots of Republicans feel the same way about the Clinton/Obama electability debate.

Finessing Clinton Attacks

2008-01-21T13:03:00.000-06:00

Ed Morrissey may have something here about Barack Obama's decision to go after Bill Clinton's largely misleading statements about Obama's record:

Obama made a big step in making this an issue. He has explicitly tied Bill to Hillary at a time when other Democrats have begun to beg Bill to get more in the background. Newsweek has an article in this week's edition that name Ted Kennedy and Rahm Emanuel as party leaders who have told Bill directly to pipe down. Obama has now made it harder for Bill to withdraw from the fight, and Obama clearly now believes that Bill could be an effective way to attack Hillary.

Clinton may face disadvantages as a woman running for high office, but she garners advantages for the same reason. One is that when competitors attack her, she looks more like a victim that a male candidate would. Contrast how much Mitt Romney benefited (not much) from the gang beating he took at the first New Hampshire debate with how much mileage Clinton gained from the relatively light one she received up there for at least one data point.

That said, the more Bill Clinton speaks, the more he makes this nomination fight a referendum on him instead of his wife. Perhaps more important, Obama can go after him with less risk, as he won't be attacking Hillary directly.

It will also be very hard for Bill to not respond. It's not in his makeup, as the vast weight of evidence of his public life would indicate.

This strategy carries significant risk, but it's hard to see where Obama has another choice if he wants to win. His omnipresent challenge is to do it without appearing negative, something he's mostly finessed beautifully so far in this race.

Magic, Listen to Yourself

2008-01-18T16:57:00.000-06:00

Magic Johnson has recorded a radio ad for Hillary Clinton that makes a puzzling analogy (from Marc Ambinder):

My rookie year, we won our first game on a last second shot. I was so hyped. But the captain of my team said, “take it easy rookie, it’s a long season, it’s a long road to the championship.” He was right. Winning comes from years of hard work and preparation. Whether it’s winning championships or a President who can lead us back to greatness, I’ll always want the most prepared and experienced person leading my team.

That's interesting, since Johnson came in second for Rookie of the Year to Larry Bird that season, and went on to win the NBA Finals MVP and Championship. His run included scoring 42 points and playing all five positions on the court in one of the greatest deciding playoff performances in league history.

If any useful analogy is indeed possible with Magic's basketball career, this one seems more likely: A man with immense charisma and off-the-charts talent fundamentally changes the game in his first season, and his influence is still profoundly felt 28 years later.

I ain't sayin', I'm just sayin'.

Update: The Obama campaign was thinking the same thing.

Assessing Obama's Foreign Policy

2008-01-17T22:22:00.000-06:00

Stephen Zunes puts together a helpful assessment of many of Barack Obama's foreign policy views in one place. His conclusion is guardedly optimistic, which seems the most reasonable to me.

Despite his rather limited experience in national office, Obama appears to be one of the smartest, most visionary and most knowledgeable members of the U.S. Senate on foreign policy. As a result, he would be more likely to take creative and independent initiatives and less reliant on the traditional foreign policy establishment than any modern president of ether party.

As many of the examples above illustrate, however, that doesn’t mean he’ll always be right. A combination of his limited vision and the constraints imposed upon any president by the imperatives of powerful economic and strategic interests make it doubtful that Obama will be able to move the country significantly forward in ways that will address the most important challenges facing the country and the world today on his own. However, there are indications that he could be more open to a more progressive foreign policy if the growing social movements in this country for peace and justice are able to mobilize effectively and provide the necessary counter-pressures. Obama’s strong showing thus far in the race for the Democratic nomination is a direct result of such movements. If he wins the presidency, he would be obliged to listen to those who would play such an important role in bringing him to the White House.

In summary, we must neither be naïve about Barack Obama’s limitations nor cynical about his potential.

North Dakota = Ecuador

2008-01-17T12:07:00.000-06:00

A slightly useful, mostly just fun, map that renames U.S. states based on the countries their GDPs most closely resemble.

I keep looking at Wyoming because it's fun to say "Uzbeks."

H/t to Reason magazine.

Your Romney Update

2008-01-16T01:30:00.001-06:00

Saying John McCain was "the clear favorite" in South Carolina, Mitt Romney today added that "it would be an enormous surprise if [McCain is] not able to win here."

I fully understand setting expectations, but please keep it within bounded reality. By what standard would it be an enormous surprise if McCain doesn't win? Even before Romney pulled out a nice Michigan win, McCain led Mike Huckabee by single digits with yesterday's primary sure to have an impact on the eventual results.

It will also be interesting to see what version of Romney we see in South Carolina. So far, he's seemingly chosen his personas like he was participating in local community theater productions in Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan. Maybe he'll say he has textile mills in his blood.

Robert Farley wonders why Romney hasn't been anointed:

[W]hy isn't Mitt Romney being treated as the overwhelming frontrunner in the Republican race? He's won two of the four contests so far, and placed second twice. Moreover, Michigan differs from the other three contests in that it's inhabited by actual people, twice as many as the other three states combined. He's also the leader in total money and trails only minor also-ran candidate Rudy Giuliani in cash on hand. He hasn't won any Southern states, but then neither has anyone else, and I doubt that the media would have been reticent about declaring John McCain the frontrunner if he'd taken Michigan.

He's not overwhelming, though, because he only won one out of three states for which he was the heavy favorite. Two had a home field advantage, and the "total money" advantage Farley mentions couldn't put lipstick on the pig, as they say. Romney's strategy was based on big early wins to propel his name recognition higher in later primary states. That hasn't happened, and it's hard to see how he generates a groundswell from the tepid response he's so far received.

Romney may well end up being the candidate conservatives rally around, which is amazing considering his past positions were much more liberal than supposed-apostate McCain's ever were. Choosing him may be the best thing for the GOP, because he'll be defeated so badly it likely would force Republicans to aggressively address the sorry state of the Party in a way a relatively close loss, or even narrow win, by McCain would not.

Umm...What?

2008-01-15T23:13:00.000-06:00

In Michigan, essentially meaningless for Democrats, Hillary Clinton came away today with 55 percent of the vote, while Uncommitted garnered 40 percent. What does it mean? Heck if I know.

Norah O'Donnell just broke down the distribution of that 40 percent, and showed who those candidates would have voted for had other Democrats been on the ballot. While 73 percent said Barack Obama, three percent said they would've voted for Clinton. Who was on the ballot.

It's like people who call 976 numbers to vote undecided.

Meaningless Grading

2008-01-15T21:55:00.000-06:00

It's because I like lists and rankings, ok? If that's wrong, I don't want to be right.

I'll probably rethink everything by tomorrow, but for now:

Obama: A-: After a slow start, this may have been his best debate. He got in his talking points naturally, threw in some well-targeted policy proposals, got in a sharp critique of Clinton on Iraq and the politics of fear without sounding harsh, and was relatively humorous and easy.

Clinton: B+: She was substantive as always, and showed the right level of anger at problems facing average people. Some of the subject matter was not helpful to her, as it focused on mistakes her campaign had made, but overall she showed command.

Edwards: B-: Had a tough challenge standing out, and wasn't able to do it, as he was on the defensive at times. He showed his usual passion for working people and is appealing, but is it enough?

Obama Comes On

2008-01-15T21:36:00.001-06:00

I may have to rethink my earlier posting. Obama started weak tonight, but has reeled off a number of impressive answers in the last hour. Asked if Hispanics are less willing to support a black candidate, he scored a standing triple by retorting, "Not in Illinois. They all voted for me." He's been substantive, smooth, and on message most of the night.

Clinton and Edwards have also done well, though Edwards has been on the defensive a couple times, once again having to explain his reversals on votes while in the Senate. To give himself a glimmer of hope, he needed to have a great debate, and he hasn't.

Now, a Skirmish!

2008-01-15T21:28:00.000-06:00

It's not on major points, but we do have some clashing on nuclear power and the energy bill. It's substantive debate.

One thing I'm now really getting sick of, by the way, is Clinton's saying that things don't happen because we hope for them. How is it not a gross mischaracterization of Obama's message to imply that he simply hopes his policy proposals will happen? Such false choices drive me crazy, mainly I think because so often many people actually buy them.

Holding Hands and Singing

2008-01-15T21:08:00.000-06:00

Wow, the candidates are really playing nice tonight. They're respectful, kidding with each other... The new wrinkle to have candidates ask each other questions was a good idea, and each had the effect of displaying substantial unity among the three on the stage.

Really, though, shouldn't it be this way? On policy, opposition, and most other things, they're not far apart. It's mostly personality that keeps them apart, but it needn't.

MSNBC, by the way, shortchanged us by ruling what was clearly a clarification on Obama's part as "his question." I'm guessing his prepared question, presumably to Clinton, would have been much more edifying. Maybe he'll try to sneak it in later.