Consultant Ninja

Women and Complaining

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Fri, 26 Aug 2011 17:13:00 +0000

Researchers say it isn't clear why in numerous studies women tend to complain more about their sleep, saying they don't get enough shut-eye and find it difficult to fall asleep and stay asleep. Sleep studies might not be picking up the whole story, some researchers say, adding that more investigation is needed... "This isn't going to be popular, but some studies show that mothers get more sleep than fathers," he says. - "A Sleep Battle of the Sexes", WSJ, 8/23/2011

Seems patently obvious, doesn't it? Women complain more than men, despite having less reason to complain.

What a shock.

The Math of Jefferson County, Alabama's Sewer Bond Bankruptcy

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Sat, 13 Aug 2011 19:19:00 +0000

Jefferson County, Alabama, might declare bankruptcy on a $3.1B bond for their sewer system. How come?

"...126,000 of the county's 658,000 residents use the Jefferson County sewer system....Median household income in Birmingham is $31,704 a year."

126,000 x $31,704 = $4.0B

$3.1B / 126,000 = $24,729

Who's the moron who thought this was a supportable debt load?

Source: WSJ, Consultant Ninja Analysis

America's "Lost Decade" of Housing

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Tue, 26 Jul 2011 17:44:00 +0000

"In real terms, the National index is back to Q4 1999 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to August 2000, and the CoreLogic index back to March 2000. In real terms, all appreciation in the last decade is gone."

Source: Calculated Risk

Consulting Verbatims

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Tue, 21 Jun 2011 05:58:00 +0000

From: Client
Sent: Monday, 11:32 PM
To: Consultant Ninja
Subject: RE: Market Data Sources

Ninja-

Please make this high priority. Good oppty to get some solid data

Tx

(Sent while mobile)
-----
[forwarded email follows with thread of random musings]

From: Consultant Ninja
Sent: Monday, 11:45 PM
To: Client
Subject: RE: Market Data Sources

Understood, I will deprioritize my current reports, until you advise a status upgrade to them, and make this a primary action item.

Why the US Housing Market is still royally screwed

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Mon, 16 May 2011 18:01:00 +0000

As a potential homeowner, I've been trying to assess which way the housing market is going. I've seen in my local market "falling prices" "bidding wars", and "all cash buyers." What does it mean? Am I going to miss out on the next bull market? Fortunately for me, unfortunately for the US, it looks like the market is well and truly screwed and there's no reason to hurry.

Consider that US Owner-Occupied Households fall into 1 of 2 categories:

Without Mortgage (~33% of the market, ~25M households): They own their house free and clear, owning 100% of the equity value of their home
With a Mortgage (~66% of the market, ~48M households): They own their house, but have a mortgage. Assuming a normal distribution, you'd expect the average homeowner to have perhaps 60% (halfway between 20% and 100%) of the equity value of their home.

Today 20 million of homeowners with a Mortgage, or 40% of them, have negative equity. They owe more on their mortgage than their house is worth. Simply put, these people are in a world of hurt.

What about the other 28M? Unfortunately, they on average owe 85% (0.8/5.4 = 15%) of the value of their home - 2 out of 3 homeowner own little-to-no household equity.

Why is this important to home prices today? 80% of home purchases are made by people who already own homes. So when 2 out of 3 households with homes have no equity in the bank, they have no ability to be "move-up" buyers, and support the higher-end of the market.

When I think about home appreciation, the current price isn't what I'm thinking about. I'm thinking, "will somebody be able to pay me this much or more for this house 5-10 years ago?" Based on this analysis, I believe the answer to be no. I'll continue staying on the sidelines for a ways to come.

Source: Of Two Minds, Federal Reserve, Zillow, HomeGain, National Association of Home Builders,Consultant Ninja Analysis

How Consultants Manage Frequent Flyer Miles

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Tue, 28 Sep 2010 01:15:00 +0000

When you are in consulting, you rack up a lot of frequent flyer miles and hotel points, but you don't have a lot of time to manage them. Every consultant I know has lost points due to weird expiration rules, and I once tried to redeem my Delta miles for a flight, only to find out that my miles had expired 8 months earlier (and Delta, of course, never told me that they had expired).

What would be really helpful is a site that allowed you to track and manage all your frequent flyer miles and points in one place. A single place that shows me all the relevant promotions and deals out there for my programs. A single place to tell me when my miles are going to expire, and shows me how to protect them from expiring.

Turns out there's a site that does that today - GoMiles.com.

It is still in private beta, but I like what I see and I'm using it to manage all of my (and Mrs. Ninja's) frequent flyer, hotel, car, and AMEX accounts. Check it out.

https://www.GoMiles.com
Referral Code: NINJA-FRIENDS

(Full disclosure: I know one of the founders from when he was in NYC.)

Why PowerPoint is Bad

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 05:16:00 +0000

There are a million examples of bad PowerPoint slides, but this one is special. Understanding why it's bad is like unraveling a Mobius Strip. Get to the end, and you're back at the beginning - kind of.

Source: Microsoft Q4 2010 Webcast

Recommendation: Long BP Based on impending fix of Oil Leak

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Wed, 05 May 2010 14:35:00 +0000

Since the blowout preventer is going to be fixed very soon thanks to this man's work, I'm recommending a strong buy of BP.

Fuermann said his desire to use meditation to activate the blowout preventer -- and his belief that visualization could actually work -- is rooted in his own life experiences and in a global movement called the Intention Experiment.

"I'm very known for fixing things and making things work," Fuermann said, adding that he believes his meditation helped fix a friend's Flip video camera. "I visualize things working and hold the belief that they actually work."

Dwayne Bourgoyne, a deep-water mining expert at the Colorado School of Mines, said Tuesday that he has "never heard of such an attempt to stop an oil spill or any other kind of mechanical failure." But he also conceded that while he is familiar with the known law of physics he is "unfamiliar with the telekinetic potential of meditation." - Boulder Daily Camera, May 4, 2010

I love how the reporter got him to concede that all he knows about are "the law of physics."

The most fascintating news release you'll read this week

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Fri, 16 Apr 2010 17:49:00 +0000

"Undisclosed in the marketing materials and unbeknownst to investors, the Paulson & Co. hedge fund... played a significant role in selecting which RMBS should make up the portfolio."

"...after participating in the portfolio selection, Paulson & Co. effectively shorted the RMBS portfolio it helped select by entering into credit default swaps (CDS) with Goldman Sachs to buy protection on specific layers of the ABACUS capital structure. Goldman Sachs did not disclose Paulson & Co.'s short position... to investors."

"The deal closed on April 26, 2007, and Paulson & Co. paid Goldman Sachs approximately $15 million for structuring and marketing ABACUS. By Jan. 29, 2008, 99 percent of the portfolio had been downgraded."

"Investors in the liabilities of ABACUS are alleged to have lost more than $1 billion."

John Paulson, if you recall, was lauded by congress for seeing the crises ahead of time.

Source: SEC Charges Goldman Sachs With Fraud in Structuring and Marketing of CDO Tied to Subprime Mortgages

Company Vision Statement

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Wed, 14 Apr 2010 20:47:00 +0000

I only had to take one identifiable word out of this client organization's mission statement. It was hung in a prominent corridor of the client office. It made as about as much sense on the wall as it does here.

Source: Wordle, Client Wall

Future Demand Borrowing, Revisited and Forecasted

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 22:33:00 +0000

This kind of closes my case on future demand borrowing, 2 months later.

Demand won't collapse for another couple of months, due to a) the homebuyer tax credit, and b) the Fed buying mortgage backed securities through March.

But once those two demand stimulants go away.... watch out.

Source: Calculated Risk

Future Demand Borrowing, Revisited

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 17:03:00 +0000

Looks like my forecast on future demand borrowing was borne out.

Source: Rolfe Winkler

"It Flies"

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 06:40:00 +0000

An emotional engineer is a beautiful thing. Well done, gentlemen (and ladies).

"Future Demand Borrowing"

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 07:43:00 +0000

The homeowner tax credit didn't create many new home buyers. 5 out of 6 of them were "borrowed" buyers from 2010-11. The result is that 2009 volumes are higher, but 2010-11 volumes will be more anemic.

You'll hear more about this over the month or two, as November/December closed sales are published as being way down. The leading edge evidence comes from great analysis by Seattle Bubble.

The homebuyer extension is like one more RB&V at 3am when you're wasted; it'll keep you in the groove just a little bit longer, and make the morning after even worse.

Source: NWMLS: Tax Credit Boosts November Closed Sales as Pending Sales Drop Through the Floor

Buying votes for $250/per

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 18:02:00 +0000

January 2009: Social security payments go up by a 5.8% COLA due to increased energy costs.

December 2009: Energy prices drop 30%, so Social Security will go up by 0% (it cannot go down).

Congress/Obama want to thus give every senior $250, total cost $13 billion.

How can any this be anything else other than vote buying?

WASHINGTON (AP) - President Barack Obama called on Congress Wednesday to approve $250 payments to more than 50 million seniors to make up for no increase in Social Security next year. The Social Security Administration is scheduled to announce Thursday that there will be no cost of living increase next year. By law, increases are pegged to inflation, which has been negative this year.

Social Security payments increased by 5.8 percent in January, the largest increase since 1982. The big increase was largely because of a spike in energy costs in 2008.

Inflation has been negative this year largely because energy prices have fallen. Gasoline prices have dropped 30 percent over the past year while overall energy costs have dropped 23 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. - AP Oct 14th

Breakfast of Champions

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 23:15:00 +0000

Mrs. Ninja's caloric intake from 6:00am to 3:00pm:

diet pepsi
rest of candy apple
chips
sponge cake

Classic Consulting Quotes

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 01:32:00 +0000

Job manager, upon seeing a slide I made: "Are you color blind, by the way?"

True story.

Thee Sunbeam method of Government Stimulus

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 04:12:00 +0000

The evidence on Cash for Clunkers is that it just borrowed from future demand rather than creating new demand. After a quick spike of sales, future demand will be lower.

The first time homebuyer credit is seeing the same effect - 5/6 of the people claiming the credit were going to buy there house anyways, either today or in the near future. So the effective cost per incremental new house sale was $43,000. What a waste.

These programs made 2009 go slightly better than it would have otherwise, but will make 2010-2012 slightly worse. What a stupid way to run a business, or a country.

You know who else did this? Sunbeam.

Is Obama going to be the next Chainsaw Al?

Information Visualization Irony

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 14:52:00 +0000

I wouldn't let a 22-year old analyst get away with publishing a chart like this. What stupidity.

Stephen Few's commenters excoriate this chart, rightfully so:

"BO is not a business "intelligence" tool. It is a presentation tool, overly simplistic in capability and overly complicated in execution. It lacks functionality and an efficient UI, and is overpriced." - Andy Holaday

"It's a cascading hierarchy of awfulness, which almost makes it challenging to critique!" - Tim Wilson

"But it’s not just the people with the purse strings who will buy something because its a) pretty, b) expensive and c) they’ve heard of it." - N Barrett

The merits of OurBeeswax.com

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 20:11:00 +0000

Within the walls of modern corporations, asking hard questions, providing negative feedback upwards, and questioning the statements of leaders is extremely dangerous. Those types of statements can lead to an idea being discarded; people attach themselves to their ideas; people with ideas under attack will regard it as a personal attack; and they will lash out at the source of the attack - the messenger.

This isn't news - anyone in a corporate environment knows this. It's also not news to say that this happens in a consultancy; after all, a consulting firm is just as, if not more so, driven by the ability of leaders to convince people (clients and underlings) that their ideas are truly unique and original.

The result is that few messengers are shot, because everyone knows the rules and holds their tongue. As a result, stupid ideas (that everyone in the organization knows are stupid) aren't killed before they do real damage. I'd cite an example, but everyone can think of a time when this happened in their organization.

What is new and interesting is how technology allows those hard questions to be asked within the walls of an organization, while protecting the messenger, and the carefully constructed corporate image.

Do you use Ourbeeswax.com? What's your take on it?

Things I'll miss about New York City

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 19:57:00 +0000

Seeing NYC in my rear-view mirror is an upcoming event I am looking forward to, but there will be some things I miss. Priceless random quotes from New Yorkers will be one of them.

B&T Girl #1: He is so "not Westchester."
B&T Girl #2: I know!
B&T Girl #3: I don't get it. I've been here a year and I don't get that. And what is or who is "the bridge and tunnel crowd"? Is it a good thing that those guys called us "bridge and tunnel crowd" when we walked in?
B&T Girl #1: Eww.
B&T Girl #2: Gross.
B&T Girl #1: Ew, oh there is so no way anyone called me bridge and tunnel.
B&T Girl #3: So that's bad?
B&T Girl #2: What could be worse?

--Metro-North

Overheard in New York

The Etymology of Consulting

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 19:41:00 +0000

Source: Dilbert Search Engine

There goes my bonus....

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 19:56:00 +0000

From: Jennifer Dziubeck
Date: Wed, Aug 13, 2009
Subject: Introducing Luna Boston Personal Shopping- By Invitation Only!
To: Mrs. Ninja

Dear Mrs. Ninja,

You’ve been a fabulous customer at LunaBoston.com over the years, and to show our thanks, we’re extending you a special invitation for our brand new VIP Personal Shopping Service. Available to just a select few customers, this complimentary service is an amazing opportunity to purchase handbags from your favorite Luna Boston designers that aren’t available on our website or in our store.

Yes, my bonus did come through.

Side note: Did you know that people (like the above model) who appear to be breathing through their mouth (aka "mouth-breathers") are generally perceived as having lower intelligence? What does it say that most fashion pictures of women have them posing with their mouth open?

The Curious Case of Equity Private, Part II

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 14:30:00 +0000

Equity Private is not only snarky, she is profligate.

"I have a reputation going back three years and three months with literally hundreds of thousands of words of my prose" - Equity Private, May 17, 2009

Her anonymous resume, as near as I can tell, is as follows:

EquityPrivate.Typepad.com: February 2006 - February 2009
FinemRespice.com: February 2009 - Present
DealBreaker.com: September 15, 2008 - May 29th, 2009 (Also July 31 2009 - August 14th, 2009)

Two observations can be drawn from this one - one obvious, one less so. First, Equity Private has invested hundreds, perhaps thousands of hours of time in this endeavor, which is a huge expenditure of a person's most valuable asset.

The second observation can only be seen by a closer analysis of her posts: Something has happened this summer; her writing volume, steady for 3 years, has dramatically slowed down. Additionally, it seems that her stint at DealBreaker, finance snark-central, has come to an end.

My questions aren't meant to mock her, or to be snarky myself. Rather, I find her an interesting character study of choices versus capabilities.

Question 1: What compels someone as talented, as motivated, as professionally successful as Equity Private to invest such a huge volume of time in such a narrow pastime as tearing other people down via snark?

Question 2: What's happened to Equity Private's anonymous writing career? Why is it (seemingly) coming to an end?

The Curious Case of Equity Private, Part I

noreply@blogger.com (Consultant Ninja) — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 11:45:00 +0000

For the period of 2006-2008, I was somewhat entranced by the wizardry (and compensation) of my finance peers. One colleague, a Deutche Bank leveraged finance Associate, expressed interest in joining my consulting firm until he learned that it would entail a 70% pay cut, for example. I was blown away that finance's compensation gap on consulting was so large.

This interest naturally led me to search out interesting sources on the sector, of which a couple in particular were Equity Private and DealBreaker. There were others (yes, Leveraged Sellout), but these 2 shone above the rest in a) their degree of self-certitude, b) the disdain they layered on those they critiqued, and c) their anonymity. (Perhaps someone will accuse me of those same traits)

Equity Private, in particular, amazed me - that someone in Prviate Equity could find time to produce such volume. Hell, it takes me 20 minutes to upload a photo and write a paragraph, but she was putting out missives of complexity and incision with regularity. Half the time I didn't even understand entirely what she was writing, so I just figured she knew a lot more than I did.

Then she arrived at DealBreaker, and her voluminous posting brought her great worship and praise from the comment section.

I kept reading DealBreaker and EP, but it started to grate on me. There was something.... wrong... with the writing. Something offensive to me. it took me a while to put my finger on it to find the common theme in her writing. Finally, someone else pointed out the single word that characterizes Equity Private's writing - it's all snarky.

Snarky: "Verbal ingenuineness that is brief, subtle, yet quite stabbing. snark is often marked by deep creativity & use of psychological attack. It employs coldbloodedness and is best served unprovoked. Snark can contain hidden complimentary meaning under a mean face, but it hurts more than it strengthens." - Urban Dictionary

That definition fits her writing like a key to a lock.