ConsumerFlow.com: Analysis of Key Economic and Demographic Consumer Trends

Easing Comparisons Lift Chain Store Sales Growth

Thu, 5 Nov 2009 13:45 GMT

Consumer spending remains weak, but easing comparisons are lifting reported results. Chain store sales growth is likely to continue, but spending will remain weak until labor market conditions improve next year.

The Leading Edge of Baby Boomers Becomes Seniors

Wed, 4 Nov 2009 14:45 GMT

The first wave of baby boomers will become seniors over the coming decade, causing major structural shifts in markets for consumer goods, financial services, the labor force, real estate, and government. These impacts will vary substantially by region, and firms and investors should begin to prepare.

Vehicle Sales Start Down Slow Road to Recovery

Wed, 4 Nov 2009 13:45 GMT

Vehicle sales improved in October, exceeding the average pace set in the months preceding the cash for clunkers incentive. A greater selection of vehicles at dealerships and gradually improving consumer conditions spurred more sales. However, a fragile labor market and limited availability of credit will prevent a faster rebound of vehicle sales.

Energy Took a Greater Share in 2008

Wed, 4 Nov 2009 09:00 GMT

Energy's share of average spending increased for six consecutive years, as considerable price growth has outdone consumers' ability to curb demand. This is a weight particularly on the lower segments of the income bracket for which energy is a larger share of spending.

Weekly Sales Summary

Wed, 4 Nov 2009 07:45 GMT

Accounting for last year's sales plunge, sales have been generally even with last year, which is an improvement from earlier this year. Although the weights on the consumer remain considerable, positives are emerging. The worst declines in consumption are in the past, but a significant rebound in spending is not expected soon.

ICSC, Redbook Sales Week Ending October 31

Tue, 3 Nov 2009 09:15 GMT

Chain store sales have exhibited some momentum of late, but consumers are still clearly struggling. This is not surprising, as household financial difficulties are severe. Job losses continue, wealth has fallen, and debt burdens are high; therefore, consumer spending will remain very soft over the next several months.

Slower Vehicle Sales Drag Spending Down

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 16:00 GMT

Real spending fell sharply in September as the end of the cash for clunkers incentive resulted in dramatically weaker vehicle sales. However, spending on most other types of goods and services is still improving gradually.

Inflation Moves Closer to Zero

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:15 GMT

Although the economy is starting to recover and posted its first GDP growth since the recession began in the third quarter, low consumer demand is still keeping inflation not only in check, but decelerating. The U.S. now has the lowest core inflation rate in nearly five years, and is close to historic lows. Inflation is thus not a threat.

Income Flatlines in September

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:00 GMT

Following small gains in July and August, personal income growth was essentially unchanged in September. Wages retrenched slightly. The supports of increased government transfers and lower taxes were largely absent in the September report. The savings rate regained its footing, as the end of the cash for clunkers program put the focus back on rebuilding lost wealth.

Compensation Growth Holds at Low Level

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 12:05 GMT

For the second consecutive quarter, total compensation from a year ago was the slowest in 25 years. Although wages held steady in the latest quarter, extended labor market weakness will prevent significant wage growth in the near term. Weak compensation, both in wages and benefits, will weigh on already-depressed consumer spending.

Confidence Not Recovering Yet

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 11:45 GMT

The recession may be over, but consumers are more focused on rising gasoline prices, unemployment that will hit 10%, reduced access to credit and other drags. Confidence will recover, but the recovery will be slow to come and modest as it starts.

Strongest Spending in Two and a Half Years

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 11:15 GMT

Real consumer spending grew strongly in the third quarter, although nearly half of the gain was attributable to auto sales. As such, it overstates the strength of consumer spending, although improvement is real.

Weekly Sales Summary

Wed, 28 Oct 2009 07:45 GMT

Spending Distribution Improves Odds of Recovery

Tue, 27 Oct 2009 13:30 GMT

Wealth is already recovering, which suggests that spending by high-income households--and therefore total spending--is set to also recover, although perhaps not as greatly as it would have if massive wealth erosion hadn't undermined consumers' faith in their assets. In addition, the distribution of spending may help limit the damage to spending from continuing constraints on borrowing or unexpectedly high energy prices.

Confidence Slumps

Tue, 27 Oct 2009 12:45 GMT

The recession may be over, but consumers are more focused on rising gasoline prices, unemployment that will hit 10%, reduced access to credit and other drags. Combined with a seasonal tendency for confidence to fall in October, and the results were disappointing. Confidence is not likely to rebound quickly either.