ConsumerFlow.com: Analysis of Key Economic and Demographic Consumer Trends

Risks to Mortgage Credit Quality Remain High

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:00 GMT

Mortgage credit quality deteriorated further, but at slower pace. Early delinquencies and foreclosure starts declined. However, the number of mortgages in late-delinquency status rose, posing a risk for mounting foreclosures in the near term.

Regional Spending Comparison 2008

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 17:00 GMT

Regardless of region, consumers have taken a considerable hit through this recession. The consumer expenditure survey provides insight into how this is unfolding, as it gives the best glimpse of how consumer budgets are appropriated. The Northeast and West are the most burdened by housing costs, while the South and Midwest were likely disproportionately helped by 2009's general easing in energy prices.

Impact of Tight Lending Standards Grows

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 10:00 GMT

Despite weak consumer fundamentals, the deterioration in aggregate credit conditions is moderating as portfolios are cleansed. Consumers remain both unable and unwilling to borrow, driving down balances. Both trends will persist for some time.

Online Retail Sales Maintain Recovery

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 17:00 GMT

Retail e-commerce sales strengthened in the third quarter of 2009. Sales rose from a year ago and will see only modest gains in coming quarters till consumer spending starts expanding consistently.

Consumer Prices Are Still Rising

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:15 GMT

Although deflation remains a substantial downside risk, the CPI shows no sign of moving in that direction, even though inflation remains low. In October, top-line inflation notched up slightly due to higher gasoline prices and used and new motor vehicle prices. Though energy prices are now recovering from their deep slide last year, service and nonenergy commodity prices are stable and are unlikely to slide into deflation.

Fed Data Confirm Coming Credit Quality Improvement

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 10:00 GMT

The deterioration in consumer credit quality is moderating. Despite weak consumer fundamentals, the signs of an impending turning point are confirmed in the Federal Reserve's survey on commercial banks.

Weekly Sales Summary

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 07:45 GMT

Accounting for last year's plunge, sales have been changing little, which is an improvement from earlier this year. Although the weights on the consumer remain considerable, positives are emerging. The worst declines in consumption are in the past, but a significant rebound in spending is not expected soon.

Housing Inventories Remain High

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:00 GMT

Even though prices have shown some stability recently, Moody's Economy.com is expecting another round of declines, as excess inventories are weighing on the housing market. Record-high excess inventories need to be worked down. Until then, the housing market will remain weak, with negative implications for consumers.

Personal Income: Training Wheels Will Come Off

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 09:30 GMT

The federal fiscal stimulus bill passed earlier this year has played an important role in the economy's resumption of growth. The government's support to household cash flow, combined with incentives for vehicle and home sales, has played a critical role in halting the free fall in real spending seen in the second half of 2008.

ICSC, Redbook Sales Week Ending November 14

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 09:15 GMT

Chain store sales have exhibited limited momentum of late as consumers are still clearly struggling. This is not surprising, as household financial difficulties are severe. Job losses continue, wealth has fallen, and debt burdens are high; therefore, consumer spending will remain very soft over the next several months.

October Retail Sales Point to Modest Spending Growth

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 13:00 GMT

Sales in total reversed part of their September plunge in October. The real story was modest sales growth excluding autos, consistent with consumers willing to do some spending but lacking the cash to spend aggressively. That pattern will persist until labor markets improve further.

Great Recession Pushes Poverty Higher

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 11:45 GMT

The number of people in poverty in 2008 rose to 39.8 million. The poverty rate rose to its highest level since the late 1990s. The incidence of poverty remains near its long-term average and is more prevalent among children than adults.

Why Is Spending Improving While the Job Market Is Sinking?

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 17:15 GMT

The highly educated are more important when it comes to consumer spending data, providing some explanation for the recent uptick in retail sales.

Long-Term Drivers of Vehicle Sales: The New Normal

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:15 GMT

Structural changes in the economy and access to credit combined with an aging population will result in a "new normal" of vehicle sales.

Unemployment Undermines Confidence

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 11:30 GMT

Consumer confidence is not rising yet, despite the end of the recession. Rising unemployment is the primary drag. Confidence will improve, but probably not until labor market deterioration moderates.