ConsumerFlow.com: Analysis of Key Economic and Demographic Consumer Trends

Labor Market Close to Stabilizing, Recovery Still Uncertain

Fri, 12 Mar 2010 13:45 GMT

While the labor market appears to be stabilizing, it faces large hurdles before hiring resumes in earnest.

Winter Weather Does Not Appear to Hurt Retail Sales

Fri, 12 Mar 2010 13:15 GMT

February retail sales showed a continued trend of growing sales. This suggests consumers are spending more aggressively than thought, although the possibility the data will be revised makes it too early to come to this conclusion. Even if true, however, the consumer recovery will be modest, and consumers will not lead the recovery.

Michigan Sentiment Dips Again

Fri, 12 Mar 2010 10:45 GMT

Despite the seeming gradual improvement in consumers' fundamentals, they remain very depressed. The University of Michigan index appears range-bound again, although a sustained increase should not be far off.

Wealth Rose Less Late Last Year

Thu, 11 Mar 2010 18:15 GMT

Gains in the stock market and house prices drove increases in wealth for much of last year. However, gains will be modest, closer to those seen late last year, as debt repayment slows and house prices begin to fall again.

Workers Losing Confidence in Retirement Capability

Wed, 10 Mar 2010 11:15 GMT

Workers have lost confidence in their ability to retire in comfort and have begun to push back their expected retirement dates. The timing of retirement holds considerable implications for the long-term forecast, as retirees are going to make up a larger share of the population over time and people tend to alter their spending when they retire.

Weekly Sales Summary

Wed, 10 Mar 2010 07:45 GMT

Sales are not showing a clear trend one way or the other in early 2010. Severe winter weather has clouded spending trends. March's surge is not necessarily more than payback from that. Signs still point to consumers remaining hesitant, as household finances remain stretched, confidence is low, and the labor market remains troubled.

ICSC, Redbook Sales Week Ending March 6

Tue, 9 Mar 2010 09:15 GMT

Consumer Credit Breaks Its Year-Long Losing Streak

Fri, 5 Mar 2010 21:30 GMT

Consumer credit inched upward in January. Nonrevolving credit balances increased substantially, while revolving credit declined more slowly. However, weak job and income growth is expected to drive credit balances lower over the months ahead. Meanwhile, the new CARD Act will give consumers more protection from credit card interest rates and fees.

Weather Dampened Employment Less Than Expected in February

Fri, 5 Mar 2010 21:00 GMT

Employment will grow modestly in coming months thanks to Census hiring and stronger production.

Another Good Month for Chain Store Sales

Thu, 4 Mar 2010 15:45 GMT

Chain store sales continue to surprise on the high side. However, between their small share of consumer spending and the fact that the level of sales remains low, it is not altering the outlook for only modestly growing consumer spending in the near term.

Vehicle Sales Slip Amid Winter Storms

Wed, 3 Mar 2010 13:00 GMT

Vehicle sales slipped for the second month in a row. The drop was mainly due to the combination of severe weather and Toyota's recalls, while underlying consumer demand is still recovering. Sales lost due to weather are likely to be made up in March, but the fragile labor market and still-limited access to credit will result in a gradual rebound over the months ahead.

Weekly Sales Summary

Wed, 3 Mar 2010 07:45 GMT

Considering the typically low sales volume of January and February, sales are not showing a clear trend one way or the other in early 2010. Severe winter weather has further clouded spending trends. Signs still point to consumers remaining hesitant, as household finances remain stretched, confidence is low, and the labor market remains troubled.

Bankruptcy Filings Dip in Fourth Quarter

Tue, 2 Mar 2010 12:15 GMT

Bankruptcy filings fell in the fourth quarter. It is not clear that they have peaked, especially in light of normal seasonal increases early in the year, but this provides more evidence that the peak is near if not past.

ICSC, Redbook Sales Week Ending February 27

Tue, 2 Mar 2010 09:15 GMT

Inflation: Slowing Again

Mon, 1 Mar 2010 16:15 GMT

Inflation is still positive, but core inflation has slowed and is barely above zero. Inflation is being held down by modest spending growth and weak consumer finances.