The outlook is pretty gloomy.  A few key takeaways:

• A v-shaped recovery is unlikely
• Advertising markets are cracking
• Retail/ecommerce deteriorating
• Mobile is not immune
• Tech spending is highly dependent upon the economy

The new realities for raising capital

• $15M raise on a $100M post is gone
• Series B/C will be smaller raises
• Customer uptake will be slower
• Cuts are a must
• Need to become cash flow positive

So, what actions are they recommending their portfolio companies take?

• Adapt quickly
• Use a zero-based budgeting approach
• Make cuts
• Review salaries and employ a heavily commissioned sales structure
• Bolster balance sheets

Regardless of the specific actions, they recommend taking action quickly to avoid putting your company into a death spiral:

Their closing message:
Get Real or Go Home

Meanwhile, Benchmark Capital's Bill Gurley sent his own warning email to portfolio companies. The full email is published here, but here are the key points (highlighting is mine):

1. You don’t realize how fast things spin out of control. There are self‐
reinforcing negative affects in a downturn.
2. Don’t spend money until you have to
a. Don’t move out of your office until you are sitting on top of one 
another 
b. Don’t hire any incremental employee until you just can’t stand it 
c. Don’t get more capacity in your data center until your site is going down     
3. Better to be “late to the party” than to be early and run out of money
4. Line item review of the budget every month (legal, accounting, everything)
5. Not just a CEO mindset, but a company mindset
a. Everyone must buy into the process
b. But in a calm way - not run for the hills
6. Create 2 or 3 different burn scenarios - know at any point in time how many months of cash is left.

Of course, any calculation of average is swayed by those at the high-end and I suspect that's even more so in this study. The study notes that the median for this same group was just $22,000 per year and my guess is that a number of participants may have "rounded up" their estimates.

My takeaway from the study is that there remain a handful of "professional" blogs and blog networks that are generating strong page views and reaping the rewards with CPM rates comparable to other websites. This makes sense as many of these are simply an online version of what might have been a magazine were it launched ten years earlier. For aspiring bloggers the reality is that you're more likely to earn beer money than to be able to quit your full-time job.

First, even with the bailout bill signed, things will get a lot worse before they get better. The bailout may slow the bleeding on Wall Street, but credit spreads will continue to get larger and we'll see more companies default and others barely hang on in the coming months. Restructuring and layoffs will become the buzzwords for 2009 and we'll probably see municipalities unable to meet obligations while all states and cities will cut back on services.  It won't be a fun time.

So what should startups and small companies do to prepare? 
As in any downturn, the first thing to do is look at your burn rate. If you're a startup and have 6-12 months worth of funding in the bank, you better start thinking of ways to cut costs so you can survive for 18-24 months or more. I wouldn't want to be going back for additional funding in 2009 or 2010. For companies already backed by venture capital, Fred suggests there may be a cushion to help ride out the storm.

Next, you better try to assess the impact of the downturn on your customer base. If you sell to financial services, you've probably already felt some impact. But don't think industrials will get a pass. As markets tighten, manufacturers will be quick to reduce costs.

If your revenues are advertising-based, look out. Traditional advertisers will be pulling back pretty quickly and I think this may be a tough holiday season for those counting on  retailer advertising to make their year. That said, online advertising is likely to hold up better than print and television advertising. The ROI is stronger and more visible, so as long as clicks continue to pay, advertisers will be there. I'd expect CPC rates to drop a bit while CPM rates take a stronger hit.

So, is it a bad time to be a startup?

If you have a good business concept, I believe it's always a good time for startups. Large companies will take a bunker mentality, reorganizing and cutting costs in an effort to ride out the storm. But the period coming out a downturn (which may be 18-24 months away) are where significant marketplace change occur. It's the best opportunity for upstarts to take market share from traditional leaders.  And there's never been a time when it's been cheaper to start a business. With cloud computing and Google Adsense as a revenue generator, it costs less to get a business off the ground than ever before. That said, it will not be a fun market to raise capital, so if you can get to a revenue-generating point without taking venture money, you'll be in good shape. Meanwhile, while the dollar has strengthened a bit in recent weeks, it's still weak compared to the euro and the pound, so small and mid-sized acquisitions are still likely, an exit alternative while the IPO market remains on life support.

Well, American Express has just named Donors Choose one of five finalists for their Members Project, out of more than 1,000 entries.  If they are selected #1, American Express will donate $1.5 million to Donors Choose.  That will go a long way towards fulfilling the wish lists of public schools. 

In the past, I've asked you to donate to a Donors Choose project.  But today, I'm asking for something more simple. 

It won't cost you a thing.  Please vote today!  If you're not a registered American Express card holder you can register on the site and vote. When I voted, Donors Choose was in 2nd place, so please give it your support.

So, which of the following is the computer-generated response, which is the real Sarah Palin and which is the Tina Fey version?

1. Q: What's your opinion of this potential 700 billion dollar bailout?
A: Like every American I'm speaking with, we're ill about this. We're saying, 'Hey, why bail out Fanny and Freddie and not me?' But ultimately what the bailout does is, help those that are concerned about the healthcare reform that is needed to help shore up our economy to help...uh...it's gotta be all about job creation, too. Also, too, shoring up our economy and putting Fannie and Freddy back on the right track and so healthcare reform and reducing taxes and reigning in spending...'cause Barack Obama, y'know...has got to accompany tax reductions and tax relief for Americans, also, having a dollar value meal at restaurants. That's gonna help. But one in five jobs being created today under the umbrella of job creation. That, you know...

2. Q: Explain to me why that enhances your foreign-policy credentials.
A: Well, it certainly does, because our, our next-door neighbors are foreign countries, there in the state that I am the executive of. And there… We have trade missions back and forth, we do. It's very important when you consider even national security issues with Russia. As Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where do they go? It's Alaska. It's just right over the border. It is from Alaska that we send those out to make sure that an eye is being kept on this very powerful nation, Russia, because they are right there, they are right next to our state.

3.Q: What is your foreign policy experience?
A: I want you to not lose sight of the U.S. domestic supply of energy, that I am the executive of. And there in Russia Diplomacy is about reform of government and these regulatory agencies back on the world. I'm not looking at poll numbers. What I know is that profound and that is part of the construction bonds and the 49th state, Alaska, and Russia. They are right there, they are our next door neighbor. They're our next door neighbors and you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska. We have got to get that gas line built, so pray for that.

--------------

For those keeping score at home, #1 was Tina Fey and Amy Poehlan on Saturday Night Live, #2 was the real Sarah Palin interviewed by Katie Couric and #3 was the Interview Palin site. 

Larry Schwartz was kind enough to send on a few photos, shown here and below.

WSJ blog The Wallet did a short post on the panel discussion.

There were a few people live-blogging the event. KT Cat posts his thoughts here.

I also did a short radio interview with NPR New Hampshire discussing the panel. They have full audio available if you'd like to catch it.

I’ve relied upon the blogs on this list to provide the context for the news of the past week, just as I do on a regular basis.  Here’s the final list, as unveiled the past two weeks:

The Ten Best Financial Blogs:
10. 24/7 Wall Street
9. The Big Picture
8. Dealbreaker
7. Footnoted.org
6. Nouriel Roubini’s Global EconoMonitor
5. TraderFeed
4. Wallstrip
3. Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed
2. Portfolio.com Market Movers
1. Silicon Alley Insider & ClusterStock

In any top ten list there will be those that miss the cut, either because they've been edged out or because they were very similar to others in the top ten list. Here are a handful of other resources that I follow regularly, some of which came up in the comments or emails I’ve received.

• Calculated Risk
• Trader Mike
• Information Arbitrage
• EconBrowser
• Research Recap
• 10Q Detective
• FT Alphaville
• NYT Dealbook

In addition to the blogs, another interesting source of financial information for Twitter users is StockTwits. StockTwits, founded by Soren MacBeth and funded by Howard Lindzon, aggregates tweets that mention individual stocks. To post to StockTwits, simply follow StockTwits then post as usual, just inserting a $ before the ticker symbol (for example, to tweet on Goldman Sachs, you’d enter $GS). Is StockTwits just a stream of noise or can it convey useful information in 140-character snippets? You be the judge.

Which blogs did I miss? Add them in the comments.

And, look at this nifty Hank Paulson toaster that I got for free.

I'd like to leave you with my favorite quote and takeaway from yesterday's financial blogging panel.

Talking about whether the little guy can make money in the financial markets, Howard Lindzon noted:

Words of inspiration for us all.

A final thanks to Howard, Paul Kedrosky, Jim Ledbetter and Felix Salmon for joining me on the panel yesterday. The panel was lively and spirited. A few people later commented that they'd enjoyed it, feeling that it raised some interesting issue without turning contentious.

More than 4,000 bloggers have converged on Las Vegas this weekend for the second annual Blog World Expo. Blog World features roughly 200 speakers speaking about all areas of blogging from Milblogs (military), godblogs, sports blogs, political blogging and blogs about virtually every topic you might imagine.

This afternoon, I will moderate the Financial Blogging panel with four terrific speakers:

• Paul Kedrosky, senior fellow at the Kauffman Foundation, strategist for quant fund Ten Asset Management and a frequent financial speaker on CNBC
• Felix Salmon, author of the Market Movers blog on Conde Nast Portfolio.com.
• Jim Ledbetter, Editor of the just-launched The Big Money, a Slate property; and
• Howard Lindzon, hedge fund manager and founder of Wallstrip.com

We'll cover a diverse set of issues. Obviously, we'll spend some time hearing their thoughts on the events of last week and the actions the Fed has taken to try to stop the bleeding. These four speakers are never shy to share their opinion and I'm sure we'll hear their thoughts on things like the ban on short-selling and what the market might look like in the coming months. We'll also focus on how bloggers were early to the subprime story, blogonomics and the business side of blogging and the impact of the blogosphere on the rumors that often drive trading.

This week's market events made clear the value that many of these alternative media voices add to providing understanding of critical market events. While traditional Wall Street analysts continue to play an important advisory role, their role has been diminished in recent years due in great part to the Spitzer settlement and its impact on the economics of sell-side research. Today, you're just as likely to find critical analysis coming from a hedge fund manager, an industry analyst or other opinion leaders, many of whom use blogs to communicate their ideas.

Are you at Blog World? Stop by to say hi after my session, send me an email or drop me a tweet @graubart and I'd love to say hello.