contrary cents-betting

Chicago Bears vs San Fransisco 49ers

2008-08-20T10:11:00.000-07:00

The Chicago Bears just announced this past Monday that their starting quarterback will be Kyle Orten this season and not Rex Grossman.

Game-day: 8/21/2008

Kick-off: 9:00 pm est.

The move, if anything, signals that the Chicago Bears are ready to move on from their Super Bowl winning attempt in 2007.

Grossman was absolutely horrid in that game. He was even worse in the 2007 – 2008 season. The problem with Grossman has always been a mental one. He has the ability, but mentally the guy just can’t get it together. How much NFL betting dollars has this man burned?

Well, the Bears decided that it’s now Kyle Orten’s turn. With the release of Cedric Benson, who was a mess to begin with, the Bears have put themselves into a very difficult situation on offense. They will have a new quarterback under center in Orten, will start a rookie running back in Matt Forte, and will attempt to turn Devin Hester into a wide receiver.

Without Bernard Berrian, Hester’s development as an every down guy is essential to the Bears’ success. He’s the only wide receiver on the Bears’ roster that can really stretch the field. Of course, Orten will have to throw him a ball that he can run under. Yeah, that might not happen.

The San Francisco 49’ers have a starting quarterback in former number one draft pick Alex Smith. He just hasn’t been all that great so far in the NFL. Sometimes quarterbacks like Smith, who appears to have all of the tools and is a smart guy, are the end products of a terrible system.

Online betting fans need to remember who the 49’ers hired this season before writing Smith off. Who did San Francisco hire to turn Smith into an All-Pro, or at least mistake free, quarterback? Mike Martz. Martz likes to spread the field ala Urban Meyer when he coached Smith at Utah. This might be a great thing for Smith. It will certainly test my theory that he’s a smart guy, right?

Here are the online sportsbook betting odds for this game:

San Francisco 49’ers + 3 Ev O 37 - 110

Chicago Bears - 3 - 120 U 37 - 110

The San Francisco 49’ers put up only 6 points versus Oakland in their first pre-season game of the year. Then, they put up 34 points versus the Green Bay Packers, on the road, in their second pre-season game of the year.

I like them to be closer to the 34 points they put up against the Green Bay Packers in this game versus the Chicago Bears. The 49’ers will play their starters for at least a half in this game. They need to get their offensive schemes down as Martz’s system can be absolutely intimidating to a quarterback.

The Bears will want to rest their defense. I hope that Lovie Smith realizes that his defense got tired towards the end of last season. The Bears’ defense is small and fast. They are also a veteran unit which means Lovie shouldn’t have to put too much work into these guys during the pre-season in order to get them ready for the regular season.

I like the 49’ers and the points in this game. That’s the online wager that I will be making - - on the San Francisco 49’ers + 3 at even money in this game. Here's a my friend Jay's opinion on this game. Other Pre Season Betting Tips

UFC 68

2007-02-06T14:38:00.000-08:00

With UFC 67 in the books, its time to focus on the betting action for UFC 68. Matt Hughes and Rich Franklin will both be on the card, but the headliners for UFC 68 will be Tim Silvia against Randy Couture for the Ultimate Fighting Heavyweight Championship. UFC Odds have been posted already. Check out zewkey.com for all the UFC betting odds and info.

ufc talk

2007-02-01T09:19:00.000-08:00

i found a good Q and A about the LHW division in the ufc today at mmaontap

there is so much talent in that division, it should bring lots of entertainment for several year.

check out zewkey for UFC 67 betting odds/info and a current Travis Lutter interview as he prepares to fight Anderson Silva.

UFC 67 Betting - Ultimate Fighting Championship Betting at BetUS Sportsbook

2007-01-24T20:07:00.000-08:00

UFC 67 Betting - Ultimate Fighting Championship Betting at BetUS Sportsbook

Check zewkey.com for UFC 67 Odds and Analysis

UFC 67- Ultimate Fighting Betting

2007-01-22T20:42:00.000-08:00

Ultimate Fighting Championship 67 is coming up Feb. 3, don't miss out on the online betting. zewkey.com will have UFC odds and analysis on all the MMA action.

UFC 67: ALL OR NOTHING features the championship middleweight bout between Anderson “The Spider” Silva and Travis Lutter. After UFC 66 GSP was injured but UFC main man Dana White came thru by adding MMA stars Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. Stick to zewkey for all the current UFC odds and analysis

Saints vs Bears Free Pick

2007-01-21T09:05:00.000-08:00

Free Picks

Featuring expert picks and forecasting, news and betting strategies. Our experts weigh in on our feature games, picks of the week and all major sporting events including NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL. Get the straight goods from the pro’s that know. Check out zewkey.com

NFL Betting - Playoff Preview - Saints vs Bears
By Ringo Dalewood

New Orleans Saints (10-6) vs. Chicago Bears (13-3)
Sunday, January 21st --- Soldier Field, Chicago --- 3:00pm EST
Opening Line: Bears -3 (44)

Preview
The Saints’ win grounded the soaring Philadelphia Eagles in the Superdome last weekend, capturing a much-needed playoff victory for the city of New Orleans. They have been the center of unlimited, and well-worthy, praise for being the best offense in the NFL and America’s (new) Team. Now they leave the comfort of the Superdome and prepare to battle the best of the NFC.

Saints Offense vs. Bears Defense
The Saints have the most productive offense in the NFL, and can play in any number of styles. They can dazzle you with the finesse of Reggie Bush, flash speed with Marques Colston or hammer you in the nose with Deuce McAllister. But the Bears defense is simply due for a big game, and there’s no bigger stage than the NFC Championship.

The Saints have two of the best running-backs in the league in Reggie and Deuce. For the Bears, it will come down to the play of defensive tackles Tank Johnson and Ian Scott. These two must shut down the interior and pave way for Brian Urlacher to shut down the run in the backfield. Last week Deuce had his way with Jeremiah Trotter of the Eagles. He will not have an advantage against Urlacher.

Reggie is a different story because of his speed and versatility as a receiver. Sean Peyton has successfully used Reggie in the latter part of the season, and Reggie is a difficult matchup for the Bears. Bush can, however, be slowed by teams that love to gang tackle, and the Bears simply love swarming the ball.

The Bears have experience at corner with Tillman and Vashar, and they will have the edge against the Saints receivers. Marques Colston had an outstanding rookie campaign, as did Devery Henderson. But they will be hard pressed to expose Tillman and Vashar, who play mistake-free on defense and won’t bite on Brees’ pump fakes. Those fakes are where he makes his big plays.

Look for the Saints come out with different styles of play each drive to confuse the Bears. If the Bears fail to show up prepared against this versatile offense, then the Saints will put up points fast.

Bears Offense vs. Saints Defense
The Bears will run Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson until both have nothing left in the tank. The key to beating the Saints is establishing a rushing game that forces them to pull their safeties in to the box, exposing their corners in one-on-one coverage. When this happens, the Saints will be in big trouble.

Forget what you have been told, have heard, or think, about Rex Grossman. If there is one thing he does well, it’s throw the deep ball to Bernard Berrien. Grossman will be looking for #22, cornerback Fred Thomas, who gave up a number of big plays against the Eagles. Lovie Smith will call on Grossman to manage the game, making short passes and occasionally going long very to Berrien, their big play speed freak.

The Saints are vulnerable on defense, which often gets overshadowed because their offense puts so many points on the board. The truth is that they allow 128.9 yards per game on the ground, so Jones and Benson will have an extended workload on Sunday. Their corners are weak and lack experience, which could kill them if Grossman gets firing early on.

Look for Desmond Clark to be their main red-zone target, as his speed will be a matchup nightmare for the Saints. The fact of the matter is that nobody should be sold on the Saints defense. And the Bears, at times, have been able to blow-up the scoreboard with their offense.

Expect the Bears to keep it simple. Run the ball as much as possible, allowing Rex Grossman to expose man-on-man coverage and attacking the Saints’ vulnerable secondary.

Trends to Note
-New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
-New Orleans is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
-Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
-The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chicago's last 10 games at home

Final Verdict
All the emotions, energy and excitement that the Saints were feeding off of last week in the Superdome are simply gone. It’s in New Orleans with their fan base. Chicago is about as unfriendly as it comes, and, with the freezing weather, the explosive offense of the Saints will cool off.

If you are looking for emotion, then look to the Bears, who have had tremendous success at home. Do you have any idea how rabid Chicago will be with their team one step closer to the Super Bowl? The same emotion that New Orleans was swelling with last week will be at Soldier field, but it will be in favor of the Bears.

The Bears can slug it out and chase you on the scoreboard. The Saints won’t be able to power up their offense in the cold weather, and if this becomes a slugfest, then the Saints simply can’t hope to match the Bears’ grit and tenacity.

The Cinderella story ends in Chicago for the Saints. They gave their team a playoff win at home, the greatest gift the city has received in the wake of Katrina. Now the Bears need to give their city what it has craved for years – a Super Bowl.

New Orleans – 27

Jan 21 2007 3:00PMSpreadMoneylineOver/Under

New Orleans Saints3-12512543-110

Chicago Bears-3-125-14543-110

Favorite:Chicago Bears

NFL Conference Championships

2007-01-17T13:25:00.000-08:00

Here are the current line on the NFL playoffs this week. Winners go to the superbowl. Superbowl Odds are posted below.

New Orleans Saints +3
Chicago Bears -3

New England Patriots +3
Indianapolis Colts -3

Reggie Bush, Rex Grossman, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady this should be good stuff for online betting.

Try out www.Zewkey.com

Super Bowl Odds

2007-01-15T07:21:00.000-08:00

Current odds for Super Bowl at Sportsbook.com

What a week we have coming up, Tom Brady goes up against Peyton Manning and da Bears Defense gets a shot at Reggie Bush, Duece, Brees and Colston.

Indianapolis Colts 8-5

New England Patriots 9-4

Chicago Bears 7-2

New Orleans Saints 9-2

2007 Early Super Bowl Line

AFC -6.5
NFC +6.5

Please visit Zewkey.com

IFL Ring Girl

2007-01-12T20:54:00.001-08:00

More IFL info at Zewkey.com

Current Super Bowl Odds

2007-01-12T07:30:00.002-08:00

Here are the current odds to win the Super Bowl at Sportsbook.com
\Join www.sportsbook.com now and receive a generous sign up bonus.

Take a look at Zewkey.com


Indianapolis Colts	7-1

New England Patriots	8-1

San Diego Chargers	11-4

Seattle Seahawks	25-1

Chicago Bears	5-1

Philadelphia Eagles	10-1

Baltimore Ravens	7-2

New Orleans Saints	7-1

Fantasy Matchups Divisional Playoffs

2007-01-11T07:43:00.000-08:00

Here they are at Pinnacle (please scoll down to see the previous post), I will be happy to break them down if you will post a comment. Give Zewkey.com a look.

Sat 1/13	Peyton Manning (IND) vs. Jeff Garcia (PHI)
01:30 PM	101 Peyton Manning (IND)	-120
	102 Jeff Garcia (PHI)	+104
Sat 1/13	Brian Westbrook (PHI) vs. Jamal Lewis (BAL)
01:30 PM	107 Brian Westbrook (PHI)	-116
	108 Jamal Lewis (BAL)	+100
Sat 1/13	Shaun Alexander (SEA) vs. Thomas Jones (CHI)
10:00 AM	109 Shaun Alexander (SEA)	-126
	110 Thomas Jones (CHI)	+110
Sun 1/14	Tom Brady (NE) vs. Matt Hasselbeck (SEA)
10:00 AM	103 Tom Brady (NE)	-134
	104 Matt Hasselbeck (SEA)	+118
Sun 1/14	Philip Rivers (SD) vs. Rex Grossman (CHI)
10:00 AM	105 Philip Rivers (SD)	-130
	106 Rex Grossman (CHI)	+114

A Sad Day...

2007-01-11T07:05:00.000-08:00

Try Zewkey.com

Effective Immediately...

Man, the US Congress sucks, I will be voicing my opinion. Yes, Pinnacle is not the only option, but they are a good outfit.

"Home of the free", my ass. I have always been a Libertarian and I vote every election. I write my representatives on occasion, but the Poker ban really pissed me off. Senate Leader, Frist, SNUCK it through by attaching it on the end of a Security bill. No vote on it in the Senate, because they were too chicken shit to put the names on record. Then the authorities start arresting company executives as they enter the US, companies operating legally in Europe!!!

Legislating morality is crazy. Some Senator thinks my entertainment (betting on football) is ILLEGAL, but subsidizes tobacco companies that are killing people. Go figure...

Please visit Zewkey.com the forum is available and comments are welcome.

Cowboys Let Mike Zimmer go to Falcons

2007-01-10T07:10:00.000-08:00

Remember this guy. NFL Coach of the Year was a Dallas assistant last year. Now Mike Zimmer, the other good assistant, is walking to Atl. What is going on in Jerry's head? Either one of these two guys would be fired up about building a contender over the next ten years, but no, we've got to have Bill "I don't know if I have enough energy for another year" Parcells. Give me a break. Maybe Jerry has Cowher ready to go for when the Tuna finally quits, who knows? Even so, my choice would be Zim, a Cowboy lifer, over a "been there, done that" Cowher. He's the same guy as the aged down Parcells.

Wild Card Week Result

2007-01-08T07:33:00.000-08:00

Hell yeah! Plax comes thru.

Good-bye to Tiki. He was a good player, but everyone is making as if he was one of the great running backs in NFL history. He had a couple good seasons. Fumbled a zillion times until a few years ago. Yesterday was his second 100 yd playoff game. Great RBs do that in one season. I will take Corey Dillon, Westy, SA, LT, or Duece over Tiki. Oh well, I never figured him right from a fantasy perspective, always wrong.

Tonite is the big college game. I really don't follow college much, so if anyone has an opinion post it.

WIN: Plax (16 pts) +116 over R. Wayne (8 pts)

Wild Card Weekend Update

2007-01-07T09:30:00.000-08:00

C'mon Plax, I need a TD today. What a crazy game last nite. How do you figure that Indy/KC game?

BetUS has a matchup for today's game.

Chad Pennington; Leon Washington; Laveranues Coles +130

Tom Brady; Laurence Maroney; Reche Caldwell -170

Scoring system:1 point for every 5 passing yards, 1 point for each 5 rushing yards,1 point for each 5 receiving yards, 25 points for each touchdown, -25 points for each fumble (lost/not lost) -25 points for each interception

Here's the projections if you're interested.

The Patriots project out a 91 pts according to the BetUS scoring. The Jets project 59 pts, thats about a 30% advantage for New England.

Wild Card Weekend Update

2007-01-06T05:45:00.000-08:00

Not much movement in the lines. Here's yesterday's breakdown of the Wild Card Week matchups at Pinnacle

BET: Plax +116.

BetUS has some Matchups available that are grouped.

Peyton Manning +140

Eli Manning +300

Matt Hasselbeck +300

Tom Brady +220

Scoring system: 1 point for every 5 passing yards; 1 point for every rushing yard; 25 points for every touchdown; -25 points for every interception; -5 points for every sack.

They are listed in the future/prop label.

BetUS has team matchups that make watching the games a little more interesting.

Fantasy Matchups Wild Card Weekend

2007-01-05T07:59:00.000-08:00

Holy Smokes!!! Look at the new Fantasy Matchup Banner, I'm speechless.

The scoring system of 1 point for every 50 passing yards, 1 point for every 20 rushing yards, 1 point for every 20 receiving yards, 6 points for every touchdown, 2 points for every 2 point conversion, -2 points for every fumble lost and -2 points for every interception will be used.

TDs rule at Pinnacle.

Friday's update to my original analysis.

Hasselbeck projects out to have a slight advantage over Romo in TD passes (1.7 to 1.4), everything else is even. I like Hass. I hopefully of the odds falling on him.

Garcia has an edge in both yardage and TD passes (1.8 to 1.5) over Brady. I think both teams win easily, but the Jets should hold the score down. Everything points to Garcia.

Marvin and TO is an even matchup, it will be a toss up. If a good price is offered either way I will take it. TO opened at +116 and I missed out, oh well, we'll see what happens later today and in the morning.

Wayne and Plax are projecting even in both yards and TDs. I'm changing my opinion on this one and taking Plax at +116. Its a good price for such an even matchup. The big risk is if NY doesn't even show up. Burress will be a main weapon if the Giants make a game of it.

Tiki (.5 TDs) has a significant disadvantage to Westy (1 TD) in fantasy value for this game. I like the underdogs, but Tiki needs to get to +130 for me to consider it. Westy is a solid favorite here

Fantasy Football Matchups Playoffs Rd 1

2007-01-04T07:26:00.000-08:00

Fantasy Matchups are up for NFL Wild Card Weekend at Pinnacle. I will get back after lunch with some analysis of each matchup. As much as I hate him, TO at +116 looks pretty good. I need to get some wins after last week.

	1 Tony Romo (DAL)	+110
	2 Matt Hasselbeck (SEA)	-126

	3 Jeff Garcia (PHI)	-116
	4 Tom Brady (NE)	+100

	5 Marvin Harrison (IND)	-132
	6 Terrell Owens (DAL)	+116

	7 Reggie Wayne (IND)	-128
	8 Plaxico Burress (NYG)	+112

	9 Tiki Barber (NYG)	+108
	10 Brian Westbrook (PHI)	-124

The scoring system of 1 point for every 50 passing yards, 1 point for every 20 rushing yards, 1 point for every 20 receiving yards, 6 points for every touchdown, 2 points for every 2 point conversion, -2 points for every fumble lost and -2 points for every interception will be used.

TDs rule at Pinnacle.

Romo has the incredible matchup against a seriously beat up Seattle secondary, but Holmgren is no idiot. He will come up with an effective plan to protect his secondary and limit the amount of time they will be exposed (pressure). Romo is young and has been shaky recently. I think Seattle D will add to the shakiness. Hasselbeck is proven, and he's got SA healthy again. the Dallas safeties are horrible and Hass will find a way to expose them. Hass has the better game, but I need him to be the underdog before I play it.

Garcia has been on fire (116/199 for 1309 yards, 10 TDs and 2 interceptions this season) and has a great matchup against a struggling Giant team. NY has only had 32 sacks and has given up 21 TD passes. Philly is very balanced and has weapons in all areas. They will put up a lot of points. Big Game Brady has a very tough matchup, since their bye, the Jets have given up only 12 pts a game. The Pats will do most of their damage on the ground. Obviously, its important and NE's backs are much stronger than their receivers. Garcia covers this one easily, I'd like to see him at +100.

TO has a great matchup, with the injured Seahawks. See the Romo analysis. I think Seattle pressures Romo, but TO will still get his catches and probably a TD. Marvin could have a tougher day. Larry Johnson will get 35+ carries, which will limit the number of plays for the Indy offense. I always like Harrison, but TO at +110 or better is a good play this week.

Reggie Wayne faces the so-so KC pass defense and will split targets with Marvin, but he still has a good day . Plax will be the only target for Eli, but the Giants may not even be competitive. I don't see the odds moving too much and I can't take Plax, so i will pass unless something weird happens with the line.

Westy gets to run wild against a hurting Giant D and Tiki has a tough road vs the hot Philly D. Tiki loses a lot of redzone touches which projects Westy a lot higher than Tiki. Tiki averaged about 1oo yrds total offense against the Eagles this year with 1 TD. Westy averaged about 120 with 3 TDs. I like Westy if the odds work out.

Football Betting Tips

2007-01-03T10:43:00.000-08:00

The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by Simon Noble

Measuring the Accuracy of Pinnacle's Sharp Plays

Since the first issue of the Pinnacle Pulse, we've focused a lot of attention on the methods and selections of 'sharp' players. Each week we highlight the markets where they are most active. At Pinnacle Sportsbook we consider a 'sharp player' to be a client that is consistently on the right side of a game, gets the best of the number and consequently wins over the long-term.

Therefore it is reasonable for bettors to ask how accurate these 'sharp plays' have been, but before going back and checking, bear in mind two bits of advice we have repeatedly stressed: 1) always play at the best price and 2) pass on a game if sharps have conflicting opinions at the same price. With these two rules in mind, you would have gone a whopping 47-31-2 following sharp plays since we began listing them last year.

Handicapping sports is a search for the truth. That truth is the chance of a given team winning on a given day. Professional players typically set their own line before looking at the market prices, and know what edge they expect at any given price. They view investing in a game as a simple commodity - they will buy either team if the price is right. In many instances, bettors will play both sides of the same game due to line moves or new information.

Many handicappers set their original line, and use an ROR (return on risk) hurdle to determine plays. For example, if a model predicts that Team A will beat Team B 75% of the time in a match-up, that player might look for a bet priced for Team A to win just 70% of the time, or Team B to win 20% of the time. Once that piece of truth is found - Team A's win percentage for that match-up - the sharp player bets it only if 'the price is right'. This might be by playing Team A at -233 on the moneyline, or making an 'equivalent' play identified with conversions, such as Team A -5.5. That same player would just as happily play Team B at +400 or +8 points.

In most games the market price will be close enough to the handicapper's fair price to suggest that the game is a 'pass'. Due to the commission a bettor must pay on each wager (traditionally 10% at most sports books), there's a dead zone where neither side can be played profitably. For example, a sportsbook might offer both sides of an NFL game at Pick'em -110. In that instance, no play could be profitably made unless a team was expected to win more than (110/210) = 52.4%. With traditional 20 cent lines, there is a fairly wide dead zone at most other bookmakers.

There are two obvious ways to reduce the impact of the dead zone. The simplest is to open an account with a reduced-juice sportsbook like Pinnacle Sports Betting. With Pinnacle's -104 style pricing on NFL sides, the dead zone is much smaller and a team expected to win just 51% could be profitable. Pinnacle Sports' reduced juice not only provides more favorable prices, with 8 cent lines on NFL sides, but gives bettors more possible plays as well.

The second way to reduce the dead zone further is to use multiple sportsbooks and shop lines. If you have an array of five plus sportsbooks, which includes a reduced juice sports book like Pinnacle Sports, you can frequently reduce the dead zone further - in some instances eliminating it entirely (e.g. if you can play either side at +100). When professional players count their profits in terms of 2-4% of their total betting volume, shopping to get the best number will frequently make the difference between a winning or losing season.

Modern Caveman recently contacted AskTheBook and asked:
Should a bettor really be taking advice from a bookie? In chess, I used to say 'never listen to your opponent.'

My advice would be, 'Trust, but verify'. In sports betting, like stock investing, you should never put money at risk on the strength of anything ANYONE says until you've researched the subject to the best of your abilities. This is especially true if your source has a vested interest.

The aim of The Pinnacle Pulse is to help educate players about the benefits of low juice by providing accurate information that helps improve the handicapping skills of prospective and existing Pinnacle Sports players. This is thanks in no small part to contributors such as Daringly and the Pinnacle Sports oddsmakers and line managers. It is our belief that if we can improve the sophistication of players and raise the awareness of Pinnacle Sports, more bettors will chose Pinnacle and benefit from our pricing that offers up to 60% better value on NFL sides than other bookmakers.

What are our players betting?

Dallas +3 -112 v. Seattle

Both teams finished the regular seasons below expectations - Seattle as reigning NFC champion and Dallas as an early Super Bowl favorite. Both lost three out of their final four games, landing Seattle and Dallas the #4 and #5 seeds, respectively.

The Cowboys opened at +3 (-114). The public leaned on Seattle by a ratio of 3-to-2, due at least in part to Dallas's recent humiliation at the hands of the hapless Lions. Meanwhile, the sharps clearly favor Dallas and have been taking the points.

New York Giants +7 -103 v. Philadelphia

The Eagles have finished the season playing inspired football winning their last five games. Jeff Garcia led the Eagles offense after stepping in for injured Donovan McNabb, throwing 10 TDs to just 2 INTs. His 95.8 passer rating would make him the #4 QB in the league. The Giants started at 6-2, but then dropped six of their last eight games to limp into the playoffs.

When you have two teams moving in opposing directions, statistical handicappers will often disagree on a game. One approach is to weight all games of the season evenly. Another approach is to weight recent games more heavily than ones earlier in the season. Each of these styles will strongly favor opposite teams in this match-up.

In our most heavily traded game of the week, we opened the Giants at +6 (-106). The line crept up as bettors took the Eagles by a 3-to-2 ratio. Our professional players are split on this match-up, possibly due to their statistical methodology. We are also seeing one-sided sharp action teasing the Eagles down.

Florida +7 -105 v. Ohio State

Florida will try to maintain a trend seen in the last four National Championships: the underdog winning outright. Another trend that has extended even further is based on defense. In National Championship games, the team whose defense allows fewer yards per game has won the last five. In this match-up, this also favors Florida, which allows 269 yards per game versus 273 yards per game for Ohio State.

We opened the Buckeyes at -7 (-105) and the public has favored Ohio State, backing them over Florida by a margin of 3-to-2. Our sharps have been split fairly evenly on this game, though we have seen some unusual point-buying activity with some of our more successful players buying Florida up to +7.5.

Week 17 Fantasy Matchup Results

2007-01-02T14:19:00.000-08:00

Loss: Rudi J(2 pts) +117 over Gore(10 pts)
Win: Peyton(25 pts) +104 over Romo(18 pts)
Loss: Marvin Harrison(10 pts) +104 over TO(12 pts)
Loss: VY(24 pts) +200 over Vick(43 pts), Kitna(161 pts), Rivers(61 pt)

What did I learn this week? Peyton is always a good underdog, no big secret. Any QB is going to struggle against the Patriots. TO sucks!

UFC 66 Breakdown

2007-01-01T21:08:00.000-08:00

Here's my opinions on the UFC aftermath.

From a gambling perspective, its important to stay on top of these guys. The odds makers can be way off when the lines open and you can find some great plays if you know the fighters.

Liddell TKOs Tito in Rd 3 - Chuck never looked threatened during the fight. Tito was tentative, afraid to lay it on the line. Liddell can maintain this style for a while, as long as his opponents are inferior. It's going to take a dynamic, hungry fighter to knock him off. Tito did not look like he had the desire to take enough chances to get back to the top. Maybe he has gotten too comfortable. Tito is vulnerable.

Jardine TKO over Griffin at the end of round 1. Forest was winning the fight but his style will always leave him open to these kind of things. I thought he played it safe and it backfired. He's successful with the balls to wall, "I don't give a shit" style. I like Forest as the underdog, but he's hard to play as a favorite. Jardine impressed me with the win, I underestimated his ability. I still don't think he is a top echelon talent though and he will be in for trouble as he continues to fight tough opponents.

Arlovski TKOs Cruz in the first round. I stand my opinion that Arlovski is overrated. Cruz was giving AA some real problems and Arlovski could do nothing but defend submission attempts. He was fortunate the ref stopped the action, then pulled a chicken shit move and landed a big punch on the break. He has no answers when the fight is not going his way. Cruz is nothing impressive, he is soft and out of shape. He can probably handle lesser opponents, especially if they are aggressive.

Jason MacDonald submits Leben in the 2nd round. MacDonald is a dangerous guy, I don't like him against the top guys. He still needs to improve to compete at the true contender level. Leben talks a lot, I like his attitude and he seems to take MMA serious. Why can't he get himself in shape? He got tired early in round 2 and it was over. I can't see him handling any smart, skilled opponents until he changes some things. He is fun to watch though.

Bisping 1st Round TKO over Schafer. The two worst nicknames ever? The Count vs Ravishing Red. WTF? I was very disappointed in Bisping. He should have rolled right thru Schafer, but got himself in some tough spots at times, a solid fighter would have put him away. I will give him a break for some rustiness, but he is not ready for prime time yet. Schafer is useful within his realm, he showed some skills.

Alves over DeSouza by TKO in the 2nd. Solid win by Alves. DeSouza was outmatched and looked a little too old for the Pitbull. Hard to learn a lot about Alves, except that he is certainly a good fighter.

Gonzaga 1st round submission of Marrero. This win will inflate Gonzagas value next time out. Marrero is inexperienced and had no idea what to do against Gonzaga. I was not impressed with Gonzaga's win and hope he is favored against a tough fighter next time out.

Week 17 Recap and UFC 66 Recap

2007-01-01T10:15:00.000-08:00

Still catching up on lots of holiday/family stuff. I will update later this afternoon. How about the Colts against the Chiefs this weekend. LJ will get 40 carries I bet. I can't believe the Broncs lost and then D Williams, wow. RIP man.

Week 17 Fantasy Matchup Udate

2006-12-30T09:07:00.000-08:00

Not much changed yesterday. The only move I liked was SJax is up to +110 over Willie Parker, if it gets higher later today I will take it. Full Week 17 Matchups and analysis. What a busy weekend. NFL season ending, fantasy playoffs and UFC 66 (good new MMA site here)-dude, my heads spinning with all the action.

Here is what I've done so far.

BET: Rudi Johnson +117 over Gore
BET: Peyton +104 over Romo
BET: Marvin Harrison +104 over TO
BET: Vince Young +200 over Vick, Kitna, and Rivers

Week 17 Fantasy Matchup Udate

2006-12-29T09:38:00.000-08:00

Some lines moved in our favor others went the other way. Rudi Johnson went to +117, I will take that. Westy went to +109, I'm going to wait a little longer on him. Current odds at Pinnacle.

Full Pinnacle Week 17 Fantasy Matchup Analysis.

BetUS has posted some interesting matchups including another with Vince Young!

Jon Kitna +400

Michael Vick +140

Philip Rivers +280

Vince Young +200

Scoring System: 25 pts every 5 passing yards; 25 pts every touchdown; 1 pt every rushing yard; -25 pts every interception; -5 every sack

The scoring completely favors a running QB. 75 yards rushing and 150 yards passing with 1 TD either way is equivalent to 400 yard, 2 TD game for the passer. This time we have Vick against VY, a little tougher matchup. VY gets a home game against he Pats who will be resting players. Vick's got to go on the road and play Philly, who's motivated and rolling strong. I think Vince has a better game and get him at +200, I'll take it.

Anquan Boldin +270

Roy Williams +240

Lee Evans +210

Terrell Owens +200

Scoring System: 1 pt every 5 receiving yards; 1 pt every 5 rushing yards; 25 pts every touchdown; -25 pts every fumble (lost or not lost)

TO projects out much higher than the other 3. He gets the most targets and leads in TDs. Roy is next, but should see Terrence Newman this week. Nobody has been throwing against Newman. I'm not going to play this, its a tossup.

UFC 66 Odds Comparison

2006-12-28T13:56:00.000-08:00

In an effort to find the best value I am monitoring 4 different betting sites to see which are providing the best odds on the fighter you wish to bet on. I am keeping an eye on Pinnacle, BetUS, Diamond and Sportsbook.com

I have posted the best prices and their locations for each fighter.

*** BetUS received 1 poor review on Sportsbook Review. BetUS.com started in 1994 and has been in operation for more than 12 years. I have had many dealings with them and never had any problems.***

Updated 12/30 at 5:30 pm

Chuck Liddell -200 Sportsbook.com
Tito Ortiz +201 Pinnacle
This one probably comes down to one or two key moments when someone gets an edge. I like the price on Tito, this is a competitive fight and better than 2-1 is right up my alley.

Forrest Griffin -271 Pinnacle
Keith Jardine +270 Diamond
Jardine has never really impressed me, but Forrest's style makes him vulnerable at times.

Michael Bisping -380 BetUS
Eric Schafer +426 Pinnacle
I don't really know much about Schafer, but Bisping seems focused and will come in ready to fight. I will leave this one alone.

Andrei Arlovski -500 BetUS
Marcio Cruz +486 Pinnacle
Arlovski can look bad at times, mostly because he's not well rounded and doesn't adjust if his style is not effective. If you can watch the weigh-in to see if Cruz looks good, he could be a decent long shot. Mainly because I think AA is overrated.

Gabriel Gonzaga -290 Sportsbook.com
Carmelo Marrero +286 Pinnacle
Lots of emotional support for both these guys.

Christian Wellisch -145 BetUS
Anthony Perosh +141 Pinnacle

Yushin Okami -400 Sportsbook.com
Rory Singer +425 Diamond
I cant imagine Dana putting a TUF guy in over his head first time out. Rory had the look of a guy that needed some good coaching. The fact that he's in with Okami tells me that he's made a jump forward since the show.

Thiago Alves -101 Pinnacle
Tony DeSouza +110 Sportsbook.com
Alves opened as nearly a 2-1 favorite and was quickly bet down to near pick em. Tells me that lots of knowledgeable MMA fans like DeSouza.

Chris Leben -156 Pinnacle
Jason MacDonald +155 Diamond
MacDonald has been the TUF slayer. Leben is well known and gets bet up, no value playing Leben. Mac has a good price and I think it gets better tomorrow.

contrary cents-betting

Chicago Bears vs San Fransisco 49ers

UFC 68

ufc talk

UFC 67 Betting - Ultimate Fighting Championship Betting at BetUS Sportsbook

UFC 67- Ultimate Fighting Betting

Saints vs Bears Free Pick

Free Picks

NFL Betting - Playoff Preview - Saints vs Bears By Ringo Dalewood

NFL Conference Championships

Super Bowl Odds

IFL Ring Girl

Current Super Bowl Odds

Fantasy Matchups Divisional Playoffs

A Sad Day...

Cowboys Let Mike Zimmer go to Falcons

Wild Card Week Result

Wild Card Weekend Update

Wild Card Weekend Update

Fantasy Matchups Wild Card Weekend

Fantasy Football Matchups Playoffs Rd 1

Football Betting Tips

Week 17 Fantasy Matchup Results

UFC 66 Breakdown

Week 17 Recap and UFC 66 Recap

Week 17 Fantasy Matchup Udate

Week 17 Fantasy Matchup Udate

UFC 66 Odds Comparison

NFL Betting - Playoff Preview - Saints vs Bears
By Ringo Dalewood