Corn from a Jar

Tennessee vs. Alabama Baseball Preview 2026

2026-04-22T21:04:00.000-04:00

Tennessee (27-14, 8-10 SEC) has gone 3-2 over its last five games, including a midweek 14-4 run-rule victory over Lipscomb. But a series loss to Ole Miss is what looms large in the rearview, despite the Vols managing to take the series finale. The Volunteers’ offense has been on a power surge, launching 10 home runs over their last two contests. Henry Ford has been especially effective, leading the team in hits (50), homers (12), and RBIs (39). He enters the series on a tear, hitting .421 over his last five games.

Alabama (#13, 28-14, 9-9 SEC) also enters with a 2-3 record over its last five games, most recently suffering an 11-2 loss to UAB after dropping a road series to Texas. Before these setbacks, the Crimson Tide had been on a roll, including a sweep of Auburn and a road series win against Oklahoma.

This series holds significant postseason implications as both programs look to improve their positioning ahead of the SEC Tournament. Both teams enter this weekend hovering around the .500 mark in league play.

Previously on Vols vs. Tide

Historically, Alabama leads the overall series 81-48, including a 26-24 advantage in games played in Knoxville. However, Tennessee has dominated recent meetings, winning 6 of the last 10 matchups. The rivals have not met in Knoxville since 2022, having played the last two regular-season series in Tuscaloosa. Most recently, Tennessee defeated Alabama 15-10 in the opening round of the 2025 SEC Tournament.

Key Matchups

Alabama’s Contact Hitters vs. Tennessee’s Starting Pitching: Alabama relies on a disciplined approach, led by Bryce Fowler, who is hitting an exceptional .429 in conference play, and Brady Neal, who boasts a .345 SEC average. Tennessee’s projected starters, including Evan Blanco (3.76 ERA) and Landon Mack (4.39 ERA), will need to limit Bama to keep the Vols out of an early hole.
Tennessee’s Power vs. Alabama’s Bullpen: The Vols rank fourth in the SEC with 70 home runs this season. Blake Grimmer is currently the team’s most dangerous hitter, having tied a program record with three home runs in a single game last Sunday against Ole Miss. Alabama’s relievers will have the task of preventing the multi-run home run innings in high-leverage moments.
The Weekend Rotation:
- Game 1 (7 p.m. Thursday, ESPN2): Tennessee’s Landon Mack (3-3, 4.39 ERA) vs. Alabama’s Tyler Fay (6-3, 4.50 ERA).
- Game 2 (6:30 p.m. Friday, SECN+: Tennessee’s Tegan Kuhns (2-3, 3.35 ERA), who is coming off a career-high 10-strikeout performance, meets Alabama’s Zane Adams (4-2, 3.67 ERA).
- Game 3 (1 p.m. Saturday, SECN+): UT SR left-hander Evan Blanco (4-2, 3.76 ERA) duals Alabama FR Myles Upchurch (5-2, 3.05 ERA).

Find CFAJ at Substack

2024-04-12T15:01:00.001-04:00

We're now at cornfromajar.substack.com. All new posts will can be found there; I feel like this is the best move for the growth of the site. Thanks for visiting--AK

IBTIT: Tennessee Vols at Auburn Tigers Baseball Preview (April 5 to April 7)

2024-04-04T23:07:00.006-04:00

It's Baseball Time in Tennessee: After getting run-ruled in game one of last weekend's series against Georgia, Tennessee (24-5, 5-4 SEC) rallied to win the last two games (16-11, 7-0) and take the series from the Dawgs. Meanwhile Auburn (17-11, 1-8 SEC) was swept on the road by Texas A&M, although the games were decided by a total of six runs, and game three went to 12 innings. It's been a rough start on the Plains as Auburn has a lone win in SEC play, but impressively that win came against #1-ranked Arkansas.

The Tigers won their midweek game against UAB 10-4 after trailing 4-3 through 7 innings. Tennessee did not play a midweek game.

Auburn leads the all-time series 97-41, including a dominant 54-18 lead in Auburn. Tennessee hasn't won a series on the Plains since 2005 and were swept in their last trip to Auburn in 2019. The Vols did win last year's series with the Tigers in Knoxville.

Auburn has not announced pitchers for Saturday or Sunday, and UT has not announced Sunday's starter, so those are just guesses.
Billy Amick will likely not play for the Vols again this weekend.
Blake Burke enters the weekend one home run short of Luc Lipcius' program record of 40.
Tennessee's two grand slams in Saturday's win over Georgia ties the season record of seven grand slams set in 1998.
Auburn's Ike Irish and Bobby Pierce were both All-SEC preseason selections.
Cooper Wiess has stolen a NCAA-best 24 bases for the Tigers this season.

This is the kind of series that can be very deceptive. Auburn is just 1-8 in SEC play, and they've been swept twice--this has to be easy work for the Vols this weekend right? But other than a poor showing at Vandy, Auburn's losses have all been close. The A&M series was decided by a total of six runs and against #1 Arkansas the games were even tighter. On aggregate the Tigers tied Arkansas 13-13 and took the final game of the series outright.

The RPI predictor actually calls for Auburn to win this series. Don't think Tennessee is going down to the Plains for a play date. This needs to be a business trip for the Vols. It's a series Tennessee can win, but a sweep is unlikely, and even just stealing a game might be the best outcome for Tennessee this weekend.

IHTIT: Tennessee Vols vs Purdue Boilermakers NCAA Elite Eight Preview (3/31/24)

2024-03-31T01:02:00.000-04:00

For just the second time in school history...

It's Elite Eight Time in Tennessee: It was a gritty battle on every possession, but Tennessee (27-8, 14-4 SEC, 15-8 vs. Quad 1&2) beat Creighton in the Sweet 16, 82-75. Earlier that night, Purdue (32-4, 17-3 Big 10, 22-4 vs. Quad 1&2) beat Gonzaga 80-68 in a rematch of two teams that had met in Maui back in November. Now the Boilermakers get another Maui rematch, this time against the Vols.

This will be the seventh meeting all-time between Purdue and Tennessee with the Vols trailing in the series 2-4. All seven meetings have come in a different venue, with this being the fifth-straight neutral site contest between the two schools. Of course that includes not only the Vols' hotly-contested 67-71 loss to Purdue in Maui this season, but also a bitter and controversial 94-99 OT loss to Purdue in the 2019 Sweet 16. And then there's the 2021 Music City Bowl loss, in overtime, and also controversial in its own right. So there is no lack of animosity when these two programs meet--especially from those of us in orange.

See the basketball glossary for more information. Click for larger version.

Lone Bullet:

Not pictured is Fletcher Loyer, who scored 27 against the Vols in Maui. Loyer was especially effective from the line in that game, shooting 10/11 from the stripe.

I could type a bunch of words here, but we all know that the game will be decided by how tight and/or biased the whistles are. It's not sour grapes to point out that Purdue, and especially Zach Edey, tend to get a friendly whistle. It's been shown repeatedly throughout the season, regardless of opponent. On top of that, you had Matt Painter preemptively working the refs on Saturday, calling Tennessee's style "tackle football." And remember this gem from PU's president back on the island?

Watching @BoilerBall playing against a wrestling team that fouls 100%. Boilermaker student athletes, be safe! pic.twitter.com/qQiVUWca7t
— Dr. Mung Chiang (@PurduePresident) November 22, 2023

So I'm going to write a couple paragraphs and a prediction with the assumption that the game will be called fairly, and the knowledge that it probably won't be.

Going into the Creighton game, I wrote "Creighton isn't used to seeing great defenses. Tennessee is used to seeing great offenses." And I was pretty pleased with that bit because it turned out I was right: Tennessee was much more well equipped to handle the skill of the Bluejays offense than Creighton was to handle the physicality of UT's defense. There were places you could see an opening for the Vols in that game--weaknesses in the way that Creighton plays that Tennessee could exploit.

You don't see nearly as much of that with Purdue. There are no real soft points in the Boilermakers' armor. They don't force a lot of turnovers, which is great and all, but it's not really a weakness. They are an incredible team on both ends of the floor, and they've played a tough schedule all season. They're seasoned and they're not going to give you anything--you've got to take it from them. If there are places Tennessee can create pressure, they will have to make that pressure happen. Here's some possibilities:

In three of Purdue's four losses this season they had an effective field goal % under 50%. Ironically their lowest eFG% of the season came in their win against UT (38.9%)
In all of Purdue's losses their offense had a turnover rate of 20+% (Tennessee turned them over at 22%, Purdue's season average was 16.3%)
In three of Purdue's losses, their opponent's offense had a turnover rate under 10% (Tennessee turned it over 14% in the loss to PU)

When you think about how close Tennessee came to beating Purdue in the first meeting--before Dalton Knecht really broke out and before Zakai Zeigler was in full form--and think about how much UT has improved since then, well, you've got justified hope. If the Vols can again hold the Boilermakers to a low eFG, and if the Vols can create some turnovers like they did in Maui, and if the Vols can limit their own turnovers--which might be the real difference considering how well ZZ has taken care of the ball recently--you've got a recipe for Tennessee to make the first Final Four in school history. The game might very well be a frustrating whistlefest where every call goes the wrong way. But it might not.

Prediction: Tennessee 73, Purdue 68

Mediocre Betting Advice: (probably don't) Tennessee +3.5, Under 147.5

Prediction Record YTD: 15-5 SU, 11-9 ATS, 10-8-1 O/U

IBTIT: Tennessee Vols vs Georgia Bulldogs Baseball Series Preview (March 28, 29, 30)

2024-03-29T12:15:00.002-04:00

It's Baseball Time in Tennessee: You'll be forgiven if you've overlooked this with the basketball team prepping for the Sweet 16, but Tony Vitello and the Vols (22-4, 3-3 SEC) host Georgia (21-4, 3-3 SEC) this Easter weekend on Rocky Top.

After taking two of three to win last weekend's series against Ole Miss, UT run-ruled Tennessee Tech 11-1 on Tuesday. UGA's midweek game against Mercer was rained out, but the Dawgs completed an impressive sweep of Alabama last weekend.

Tennessee leads the all-time series over Georgia 127-121, including a 71-50 record in Knoxville. Tony Vitello has won three of the five series he's skippered against UGA, but the Dawgs did take two of three games against UT last year. Neither teams has earned a series sweep in this series since Vitello took over in Knoxville.

Georgia features one of the most potent offenses in America. Just when you think Tennessee has been crushing homers this season (and they have, with 71), you look up at Georgia's nation-leading 74 and know this series should have some pop. UGA's Charlie Condon is one of the nation's best hitters. In fact, I'm going to quote directly from the UGA official press notes for this series:

Formed in 1989, C+C Music Factory had hit singles like “Gonna Make You Sweat,” “Here We Go and “Things That Make You Go Hmmm..” Now located in Athens and formed in 2023, there’s “C+C Hitting Factory of Charlie Condon and Corey Collins that have pitchers sweating, fans barking and leading a team that produces mammoth home runs that make everybody go hmmm...and wow!

That's got to be the cheesiest thing I've ever seen printed in an official university release (and it's pretty poorly written to boot). Obviously this is a series I'd want the Vols to win anyway, but you can't lose to that, boys. A series win is now imperative.

Good news for the Vols is there is a much steeper drop-off in quality of pitchers once you get into the Georgia bullpen compared to the Tennessee relievers. UGA is bottom-third in the league in most pitching categories. You'd expect a lot of runs to be scored this weekend, but the Tennessee staff seems better prepared to at least limit the damage done by Georgia's bats. Likely not a sweep, but the Vols should win the series.

IHTIT: Tennessee Vols vs. Creighton Bluejays NCAA Sweet 16 Preview (3/29/24)

2024-03-28T15:32:00.003-04:00

It's Sweet Sixteen Time in Tennessee: After surviving a horrendous shooting night against Texas in round two of the NCAA tournament, Tennessee (26-8, 14-4 SEC, 15-8 vs. Quad 1&2) turns its eyes on Creighton (25-9, 14-6 Big East, 16-9 vs. Quad 1&2). It will be a game of strength vs. strength as the Creighton offense, one of the top-rated in the NCAA, faces Tennessee's defense, also one of the best in America.

This will be the second meeting between the schools ever. The Bluejays will certainly be out to avenge the previous contest, a 34-28 UT win in 1937.

See the basketball glossary for more information. Click for larger version.

Bullets:

All three Creighton players pictured score 17+ PPG, all three were 1st or 2nd team All-Big East, and both Scheierman and Kalkbrenner average 7.5+ rebounds/game.
For the second straight game, Tennessee faces an all-conference big man--typically the Vols' kryptonite this season. I was surprised Texas didn't attack the rim more with Dylan Disu, but I guess when you've got a 6'9 guy that can shoot 3s, that's a mismatch you try to exploit. Kalkbrenner can shoot 3s (he shot 30% on 53 attempts this season), but expect him to play much more around the basket.
Trey Alexander draws comparisons to Alabama's Aaron Estrada in how both have scoring ability and a nose for creating space and assists. Alexander is a better defender, however.
Baylor Scheierman is one of the top 3-point shooters in the country, but is also the NCAA career leader in defensive rebounds.

Here's an excellent video that breaks down these "Big 3" players for the Bluejays:

One line early in that video stands out for me: "[Creighton] can only reliably play six or seven guys on a nightly basis. So it becomes imperative for Alexander, Scheierman, and Kalkbrenner to play like stars in every game" (emphasis mine). I don't know that you have to shut down all three of them--I don't know that you can--but limit the damage from one or two of them, and their offense becomes manageable.

Keep in mind that when I say manageable, that's exactly what I mean. This is the #11 offense nationally in offensive efficiency at 1.2 points per possession. They're the third best team nationally in effective field goal rate at 57.48%. They've shot the 3rd-most three-pointers of any team left in the tournament, and they've made 36.6% of their threes this year. They're gonna get theirs.

So here's the good news. The three best defenses in the Big East this season were UConn, Villanova, and Providence. Creighton went a combined 3-4 against those teams. Of those teams, measuring by defensive efficiency (AdjDE), only UConn has a top 10 defense at #8. Tennessee's AdjDE is #3. The Vols allow just .899 (repeating of course) points per possession. And the Vols have achieved that ranking while facing some of the top offenses in America. Of the defenses in the top 10 nationally, only Tennessee has faced a top-10 schedule of offensive opponents. Tennessee is used to seeing great offenses, Creighton isn't used to seeing great defenses.

I'd also mention that Creighton is bad at offensive rebounds--really bad--a bottom-third team nationally in offensive rebounds. They are also literally the worst team in college basketball at creating turnovers defensively--#362 out of 362 in that category. They only turn their opponents over on 11% of possessions. The national average is 17% and Tennessee creates a turnover on 19% of opponents' possessions, for comparison. These are significant points because, as good as the Bluejays' offense is, you cannot allow them to create extra offensive opportunities through turnovers and offensive rebounds.

Of course how Tennessee handles Creighton's offense won't matter if the Vols can't solve their own offensive problems. UT's shooting, especially from 3, was absolutely moribund against the Longhorns in round 2 Saturday (12% on 3/25 attempts behind the arc). And the Bluejays aren't going to make it easy. They are a top 25 defense themselves, and they play a style that invites teams to rely on the least-efficient shot in basketball: the midrange jumper. Here's an excellent primer on the Creighton defense:

🧵Creighton’s drop coverage defense…

The Bluejays utilize drop coverage defense at one of the highest rates in CBB. The purpose is to force teams into taking bad mid-range jump shots. The way they do this is by playing the PnR a certain way to funnel teams into the mid-range.… pic.twitter.com/qNeuJgSsoL
— Jordan Moore (@jordanmoore_21) March 26, 2024

For a five-out style team like Alabama who only shoots layups and threes, facing that kind of defense is a nightmare scenario. Tennessee is decently equipped to handle this though. Of teams that made the Sweet 16, UT falls around the middle of the pack in both midrange shots as a percentage of the offense (22%) and shooting percentage on midrange shots (41%). Of players in the Sweet 16 with at least 25 midrange attempts this year, Tobe Awaka (52%) and Jahmai Mashack (48%) are both top-10 shooters, with Josiah-Jordan James (44%) and Zakai Zeigler (43%) also in the top-30.

Of bigger concern might be how much Tennessee relied on points from the free throw line last weekend. The Vols got 23% of their points from the stripe in rounds 1&2, more than any other team that advanced to the Sweet 16:

Half the teams in the Sweet 16 scored a higher percentage of their points at the free throw line than Purdue through the first weekend. pic.twitter.com/CzaeF4vpwj
— cobra. (@cobrastats) March 25, 2024

The trouble here is that Creighton is elite at keeping teams off the free-throw line. Their defensive free-throw rate is 15.7%, the national average is 32.9%, and the next-best Sweet 16 team is Purdue, at 22.9%. Interestingly, Creighton has the nation's worst defensive free throw percentage--teams shoot 79% at the line against the Bluejays, seven percentage points higher than the national average. It seems like when they do foul, they're fouling the wrong guys.

They say styles make fights, and these two clubs have punches and counterpunches galore. I'll admit, when I first started looking into Creighton, I got pretty spooked. But the more I've thought through how this game could play out, the better I've felt. Creighton has a great offense, but Tennessee is built specifically to handle great offenses. Tennessee shot horribly against Texas, but the Vols have only shot under 40% in back-to-back games once this year, in Maui against Purdue and Kansas. And they've only shot under 30% from three in back-to-back games twice: those two Maui games and in February against Texas A&M and Arkansas--and the Vols blew out Arkansas in spite of it. Creighton wants to force mid-range shots, and while that's not the Vols' preferred spot to shoot from, they can make those shots. By the way, Tennessee's best midrange shooter by percentage (admittedly with a small sample size) is Tobe Awaka, who despite playing just 10 minutes in the Texas game was arguably UT's best player last weekend. He could be poised to have another big one against the Bluejays.

This shapes up to be one of the best games of the weekend and it could simply come down to who has the ball last. However, I believe that as long as the Vols play within their own game, and don't give Creighton unnecessary advantages like offensive rebounds and turnovers (don't let teams be good at what they're bad at--a theme I've written about before), then Tennessee should be playing in their second Elite 8 in school history on Sunday.

Prediction: Tennessee 74, Creighton 70.

Mediocre Betting Advice: Tennessee -2.5, Under 146

Prediction Record YTD: 14-5 SU, 10-9 ATS, 10-7-1 O/U

IHTIT: Tennessee Vols vs. Texas Longhorns NCAA Round Two Preview (3/23/24)

2024-03-22T22:48:00.000-04:00

It's Hoops Time in Tennessee: There was no second wearing of Cinderella's slipper for Saint Peter's as Tennessee (25-8, 14-4 SEC, 13-8 vs. Quad 1&2) handled the Peacocks easily in round one, 83-49. Meanwhile Texas (21-12, 9-9 B12, 9-11 Quad 1&2) survived a rock fight against Colorado State 56-44, a game where the Longhorns held CSU to just 29% shooting overall--while shooting just 7% from three themselves.

The all-time series between these schools is an even 4-4, with three of Tennessee's losses coming at neutral sites. Rick Barnes is 1-1 at UT against his former school.

See the basketball glossary for more information. Click for larger version.

Bullets:

You might remember Dylan Disu's name from the two years he spent at Vanderbilt. Since transferring to Texas, Disu has become an All-Big 12 performer and was this year's Big 12 Most Improved Player.
Disu is listed as a F, but basically fills the role of a center--his matchup with Jonas Aidoo will be a key one in the game.
In addition to being the Longhorns' leading scorer, Max Abmas has scored the 8th most career points in NCAA history (3121).
Texas coach Rodney Terry was an assistant for nine years under Rick Barnes at Texas while the Deacon was becoming the winningest coach in Longhorns' history (402-180)

Texas is a solid squad. They aren't the most impressive team the Vols have faced this year. Texas has a losing record against quad 1&2 teams. Their best win is probably a two-point victory over Baylor back in January. They're top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Texas is one of the most veteran teams in America, averaging 3.24 years of experience according to Kenpom, almost twice the national average. When it comes to comparable teams, Tennessee has both beaten better teams than Texas and lost to worse. But mostly they've beaten better, and with the usual disclaimer that this is March Madness and nothing is sure thing (just ask Kentucky, Auburn, Florida, etc.), you've got to feel pretty good about the Vols' chances of advancing to the Sweet 16 again.

One note of caution, though. There's been two ways to beat Tennessee this year. One is to rely on streaky shooting--either that you go on a hot streak, or UT hits a cold streak. The other, and the more reliable way, is to have an all-conference big man. Purdue, Kansas, UNC, and Mississippi State (twice); or rather Zach Edey, Hunter Dickinson, Armando Bacot, and Tolu Smith (twice) have managed to take down the Vols. In three of those games, Jonas Aidoo fouled out, and against MSU Tobe Awaka fouled out as well. Aidoo has played very well for the Vols this year--but when facing top-level big-man talent, he has struggled to match up. Dylan Disu fits the bill of "all-conference big man" for Texas. It's my belief that he's not on the same level as those other bigs that have given Aidoo and the Vols hell this year. But if Tennessee struggles Saturday night, the Aidoo-Disu matchup will likely be the culprit.

Prediction: Tennessee 75, Texas 68

Mediocre Betting Advice: I dunno man, it's March. If I knew what I was doing, I would've had money on Oakland and Yale. In this game, Kenpom has Tennessee by 5. The betting line is 6.5. The Vols are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 while Texas is right at .500. There's also this, though, which is mildly terrifying:

Dating back to the 2003 Final Four, Rick Barnes' teams are 2-12 ATS as a favorite after the Round of 64 and lost 9 of the 14 games outright. Over a shorter period, its 0-6 ATS and 1-5 outright in the last six games.
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) March 22, 2024

You could also read that as "we're due one." My feeling is Tennessee either loses outright or solves the big-man problem and wins with some comfort. I'll take the Vols -6.5 and though the over hits in just over 50% these teams' games combined, Texas' 7% from three in round one has me leaning Under 149.

Prediction Record YTD: 13-5 SU, 10-8 ATS, 9-7-1 O/U

IBTIT: Tennessee Vols vs. Ole Miss Rebels Series Preview (3/22 thru 3/24/24)

2024-03-22T15:34:00.000-04:00

It's Baseball Time In Tennessee: and it's also basketball time in Tennessee, and I'm trying to get a preview done for the Vols-Texas round 2 game Saturday, so just the preview graphic this time. Baseball previews will return en force after the hoops season ends, hopefully no time soon.

IHTIT: Tennessee Vols vs. Saint Peter's Peacocks NCAA Tournament Preview (3/21/24)

2024-03-20T12:30:00.000-04:00

It's March Madness Time in Tennessee: Following a regular season title clinching win against South Carolina on March 6, Tennessee (24-8, 14-4 SEC, 13-8 vs. Quad 1&2) has turned in a couple of... we'll say uninspired performances, losing to Kentucky on senior day and to Mississippi State in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament. But this is the Big Dance, and whatever you've done to this point--both good and bad--are out the window as each game becomes a one-game season, and survive and advance becomes the mantra. That's true too for the Vols' first-round opponent Saint Peter's (18-13, 12-8 MAAC, 0-3 vs. Quad 1&2). The Peacocks limped into their conference tournament as a 5-seed, barely over .500 in conference play, but pulled off three straight Ws to claim the Metro Atlantic's auto-bid.

This will be the second all-time meeting between the schools. Tennessee won the one previous meeting 54-40 in the first round of the 1984 NIT.

See the basketball glossary for more information. Click for larger version.

Bullets:

I'll expound on this in a bit, but St. Peter's doesn't score. The one true offensive threat they have is All-MAAC 1st-teamer Corey Washington, who in addition to being an all-around good shooter, is particularly adept at drawing fouls and shoots 80% from the line.
Similar to a Rick Barnes team, St. Peter's is a defensive-minded squad. Senior guard Latrell Reid is the MAAC defensive player of the year and recorded eight steals against UMBC earlier this year, the most by a MAAC player in 2024.
Not pictured is Peacock freshman guard Armoni Zeigler, Zakai's brother, a fact that if you didn't already know, will be repeated ad nauseum by the broadcast crew Thursday night, I'm sure. Armoni is a solid contributor for Saint Peter's, and even started several games for the Peacocks in the middle of the season. Here he is with a SportsCenter Top 10 dunk against Manhattan in January:

There was a certain sense of dread seeing Saint Peter's as Tennessee's draw for round 1. The Peacocks were the darling of the tournament a couple of years ago and Vol fans got no end of enjoyment from seeing Kentucky fall to a school whose athletic budget could be covered by John Calipari's pocket change. Now, this previously unknown Jesuit school from New Jersey is a known giant killer, and the Vols haven't played their best basketball in weeks. Pardon the BVS, but this seems like a recipe for a particularly Big Orange disaster.

But this isn't that Saint Peter's squad. There are some holdovers on the roster, but outside of Reid, none of them got meaningful playing time in '22. That '22 team sprinted into the MAAC tournament as the #2 seed winning 7 of their last 10 games. This year's club limped into the conference tourney a #5 seed, barely going .500 in their last 10. Heck in 2022 Saint Peter's played Division III school Nyack and won by 40, this year's club barely survived DIII Keane, winning by just 3 points. The coach is different, but the teams have similar styles: smothering defense and plodding offense. But when you look at the numbers:

I'm not going to pretend to know how statistically significant those numerical differences are. But I can be convinced the #25 defense, alongside a semi-functional offense, can pose a problem in the tournament for just about anybody (and in 2022, it did). I'm not convinced that the #75 defense, when paired with an offense that amounts to a dead body floating in a flooded ditch, will resemble anything like the Cinderella Peacocks from two years ago.

The best case scenario for Saint Peter's is to make this a slow, methodical, plodding game. But even in that worst-case scenario for UT, do you not think the Vols can out-plod the Peacocks? A year ago Tennessee was maligned by national media for dragging Duke down into the mud, and while the irony of UT losing this game the same way would be incredible, I don't see the #75 defense nationally beating the #3 defense at their own game. As long as the Vols get scoring from Dalton Knecht, or anyone really, Tennessee will win this game easily.

Prediction: Tennessee 75, Saint Peter's 54
Mediocre Betting Advice: I'm not a fan of this line (Vols -21.5) or the total (129.5). Kenpom has UT winning by 19. It's entirely possible that UT runs Saint Peter's out of the gym and wins by 25, 30, or more. It's also possible that two defensive-minded teams shooting in an unfamiliar gym struggle to generate points which makes the under 129.5 seem likely). Tennessee could win this game by 15 and never really feel in danger. I'm in the weird position of thinking UT wins comfortably, but still needing to take Saint Peter's +21.5, just because it's so many points.

Prediction Record YTD: 12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS, 9-6-1 O/U

IBTIT: Tennessee Vols at Alabama Crimson Tide Baseball Series Preview (3/15-17/24)

2024-03-15T12:22:00.000-04:00

It's Baseball Time in Tennessee: After a fairly dominant non-conference portion of the schedule, the #5 Vols hit the road to start SEC play against #14 Alabama, who has also looked strong in the early portion of the season.

Tennessee trails the all-time series between these teams 44-78, including just 18 wins against 46 losses in Tuscaloosa. However, under Tony Vitello the Vols are 8-3 against Alabama and have won all three series they've played against the Tide.

Preview Graphic: (consider this V1.0, changes coming for the next one)

Apologies for the lack of a full write-up here, but a few bullet points:

3B Gage Miller is easily Alabama's biggest threat at the plate, leading the Tide in most offensive categories
Ole Miss transfer OF TJ McCants is also dangerous, with 6 HR, 6 steals, and 23 RBI
LHP Alton Davis II was a preseason All-SEC pick and has three saves already on the season

IHTIT: Tennessee Vols vs. Kentucky Wildcats Basketball Preview (3/9/24)

2024-03-08T18:55:00.000-05:00

It's Senior Day In Tennessee: Colin Coyne, Dalton Knecht, Josiah-Jordan James, and Santiago Vescovi will all be celebrated in their final home game for Tennessee (24-6, 13-3 SEC, 13-6 vs Quad 1&2). It should be an especially emotional send off for Santi and JJJ, who have each been with the program for so long it seems like they would've played their first games in Stokley. Of course, emotions are always high when Kentucky (22-8, 12-5 SEC, 7-7 Quad 1&2) comes to town, and this time the Cats are looking to avenge a 103-92 loss to the Vols a month ago. Plus, the crowd will be charged with the energy of celebrating Tennessee's first outright SEC regular-season title since 2008, clinched Wednesday at South Carolina. It should be a veritable glass case of emotion.

UT's win at Rupp didn't put much of a dent in the 78-160 deficit the Vols have in this series. But Tennessee's 52-59 record against UK at home doesn't look nearly as bad, despite UT winning just two of the last five against the Cats in Knoxville.

See the basketball glossary for more information. Click for larger version.

Bullets:

Dillingham, Reeves, and Sheppard are all top-100 nationally in 3-point %, with Sheppard being #2 overall.
Sheppard is also top-10 in effective FG% and total shooting %, as well as steal %, while being top-100 in offensive rating.
Reeves is top-100 in eFG%, TS%, and ORtg.
Dillingham is #43 nationally in 3FG%, and top-100 in assist rate.
What I'm saying is, these guys play offense.

Kentucky shoots well and plays fast--the #1 eFG% in the SEC/#5 nationally with an average possession time of less than 16 seconds. The Cats out-dueled the SEC's other top offense two weeks ago, beating Alabama 117-95. That game was part of a strong run UK has been on after dropping three in a row at Rupp earlier this season: the Cats are 7-1 in the SEC since losing to the Vols on February 3.

Once Tennessee beat South Carolina Wednesday night, the importance of this game seemed diminished. After all, the SEC title is clinched and UT has already beat Kentucky this year. What is there to play for? But, you know, it's Kentucky. And it's senior day. There is pride on the line, as well as a chance for Tennessee to not just win the SEC but dominate it. In a year that many have called the strongest SEC ever, to clear first place by two or three games rather than squeaking by would be an absolute statement. And to send these seniors out with a win against the hated Cats would make this arguably the best Tennessee basketball regular season, ever.

Playing around with some numbers on KenPom, it turns out that when Tennessee shoots well from three, they tend to win. That is not surprising. What is interesting, though, is that 2-point shooting is one of the most highly correlated stats for Kentucky's wins. All of UK's eight losses come in their 10 worst 2-point shooting performances. Tennessee, statistically, has the #6 best defense at defending 2-point shots. So while UK will almost certainly get a fair share of points from downtown, it's inside the arc that Tennessee has a winning edge.

There's a chance that the emotion of senior day, a little bit of a let-down after clinching the title, and a highly-motivated Kentucky squad with a powerful offense becomes too much for the Vols to handle Saturday. But it's more likely that UT takes care of business.

Prediction: Tennessee 89, Kentucky 77

Mediocre Betting Advice: My feeling is that if the emotion of Saturday doesn't sink the Vols, it will boost them to a runaway victory. I didn't expect the book to see it that way too, and I was a little surprised by the 8.5-point spread. KenPom has the game as a 9-point Vol victory, and these teams have more than enough scoring ability to carry the 164.5 total. Tennessee -8.5 and over 164.5.

Prediction Record YTD: 12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS, 8-6-1 O/U

IHTIT: Tennessee Vols at South Carolina Gamecocks Basketball Preview (3/6/24)

2024-03-06T09:06:00.007-05:00

It's Hoops Time in Tennessee: After making a statement against Alabama on Saturday night, Tennessee (#4, 23-6, 13-3 SEC, 12-6 vs. Quad 1&2) has earned a shot at winning the SEC regular-season championship against South Carolina (#17, 24-5, 12-4 SEC, 10-3 vs. Q1&2).

There are a lot of wacky SEC title scenarios that could play out--going into Tuesday night, there was still a possibility for a five-way tie for 1st in the SEC. But for the Vols it is simple: win Wednesday and you've got your first outright title since 2008. At the same time, South Carolina is hunting for the title themselves after being picked to finish last in the preseason, reminiscent of Tennessee's 2017-18 SEC co-championship season.

Tennessee also has payback for January's 59-63 loss to the Gamecocks as a motivator. It was the only time UT was held under 60 points this season, and just one of four times the Vols were held under 70. The loss was a rare one for Tennessee against South Carolina, holding a 52-29 record in the all-time series, with 8 wins in the last 10 meetings between the two schools. Tennessee also has a winning record on the road in this series, holding an 18-17 record in Columbia, SC.

See the basketball glossary for more information. Click for larger version.

Bullets:

Ta'Lon Cooper slaughtered Tennessee from behind the three-point arc in the first meeting. Cooper was 4/5 from three, and while at first glance his 18 points pales in comparison to the 31 Dalton Knecht scored in that game, SC's 35% from 3 was much more effective than UT's 24%. Cooper was the engine behind that effort.
One of the Gamecocks' weaknesses is failure to get to the line effectively--dead last in the SEC in FGA as a percentage of their offense. But in the previous game between these teams, USC was dominant at the line as well, with BJ Mack leading the way on 7-8 shooting from the stripe.
Tennessee shot just 60% from the line in that game, and could've won had they shot as well as Carolina did from the line that night.
Myles Stute wasn't supposed to play in that first matchup with a shoulder injury, but came off the bench with 13 points on 3/3 shooting from 3 and 4/4 at the line. He's been out again with a knee sprain, but it sounds like he will be available Wednesday.

I dare you to figure out this South Carolina team. They are ranked #17 in the AP poll, but the computers show them no love, appearing in the mid-low 40s in most CPU rankings. In fact, look at the win probability chart from the first time UT played USC:

In a real-time analysis of the game state and taking both teams into account, and with the Gamecocks leading for nearly the entire game, the formula resisted giving South Carolina better than a 50% chance to win until the last 10 minutes of the game. And it took until the last five minutes to keep the win prob. in USC's favor. Yet against the odds and logic, South Carolina won, and now the Gamecocks enter the last week of the season with a shot at the crown and an "us against the world" mentality that is always a powerful motivator.

But the Vols are motivated, too. So while it's tempting to look at USC's 10-3 record against quad 1&2 teams and think of them as criminally underrated, you've also got to consider that just three of those wins come against quad 1 teams (SC is 3-3 vs Q1, UT is 6-5). South Carolina has mostly dodged the top of the SEC as well, other than this rematch against Tennessee, the Cocks only played each of the other title contenders once (beating UT and Kentucky but losing to Auburn and Alabama) The Vols are more battle-hardened. The odds say Tennessee should win this game. And while Carolina beat those odds once this season, I don't see them doing it again.

Prediction: Tennessee 76, South Carolina 69

Mediocre Betting Advice: KenPom has the game as a five-point UT win. The betting line is Vols -5.5. The total is 139.5, which seems low, but this series has had some crazy low totals, and it's 50/50 on which side wins. Maybe I'm being a homer here, but this feels like a game where Tennessee asserts themselves to take the SEC title and further their case for a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Tennessee -5.5 and over 139.5.

Prediction Record YTD: 11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS, 8-5-1 O/U

Tennessee 81, Alabama 74

2024-03-03T16:47:00.003-05:00

There are certain plays that, as Johnny Majors would say, will never be forgotten by the living fan. Peyton Manning to Joey Kent "on play number one," Chris Lofton's three over Kevin Durant, and Drew Gilbert's walk-off grand slam in the 2022 regionals come to mind.

Saturday night in Tuscaloosa, we saw one of those type plays unfold when Jahmai Mashack hit a go-ahead three, stole a pass that ended up in the hands of Zakai Zeigler, who fed Jonas Aidoo for the layup and foul. The sequence not only gave Tennessee a lead they'd never relinquish, it set them up for a de facto championship game against South Carolina later this week... but I'm getting ahead of myself. Let's go back to the beginning.

Tennessee comes into this game as 2.5-point underdogs and with just a 40.2% win probability. Of the four quad-1 games UT faces to close the season, this seems like the most likely loss. Bama fans are feeling this too, taking time to practice court-storming prevention (Fig. A.1) and chanting "o-ver-rat-ed" at the mere mention of Dalton Knecht's name (Fig. A.2).
In the first few minutes, Tennessee is flipping this script, jumping out to an early 7-4 lead to make the win probability to 50%. But it's a 10-0 Vol run that pushes the win prob. over the 70% mark, and it looks early like UT might just cruise to victory. Even after some cold shooting by the Vols, there is a stretch...
Around the 4-5 minute mark of the first half where Tennessee is growing the lead and much of ESPN's coverage is focused on sad/mad Bama fans (Fig. B) in their Walmart throwback jerseys rethinking those "o-ver-rat-ed" chants from earlier. A three by Josiah-Jordan James puts the Vols ahead by 10 again, and Tennessee is doing this without Aidoo or Tobe Awaka, who both have early foul trouble.
And then it happens. Bama makes their move, clawing back that 10-point deficit with a 12-point run that gives the Tide a 41-39 halftime lead. The run continues in the second half, ultimately becoming a 17-1 stint that drops Tennessee's win prob. to 24.6% The Vols can't play their bigs because Pat Adams and co. are on a pace of 1.15 fouls/minute. Despite taking back the lead briefly on a Dalton Knecht three, things are about to get real bleak.
This trough of despair on the win prob. chart is where the game turns into a grind. Both teams combine to go 2-18 from the field from 15:00 to 10:00 in the second half. Even the refs are off their pace, calling just one foul/minute. With 9:00 left in the game, Tennessee is down six points, with a paltry 15% probability to win. Vol fans are looking up Bama's remaining schedule, hoping there's a potential loss left on the Tide's calendar that might give UT back the SEC lead.
And then it happens. One of the great basketball plays--one of the great hustle plays--you'll ever see. Jahmai Mashack hits a three, stalks Alabama's attempt to push the ball upcourt like a free safety, tips the ball in to Zeigler who finds Aidoo for the put in and a foul. It really doesn't even matter that Jonas misses the and-one (Fig. C). The message is sent. Tennessee has wrested this game back from the brink and taken a lead they will not give back. In a matter of seconds, UT goes from a 29.2% win prob. to a 70% likelihood. It will be 100% in a couple of minutes as Tennessee closes out one of the all-time great wins--a W so good it's got Donde Plowman tweeting the lyrics to Dixieland Delight (Fig. D).

Coming into this stretch of quad-1 games, it looked unlikely that Tennessee could go 4-0. Hopefully they could go 3-1, because 2-2 is a real possibility. This trip to Alabama seemed the most likely loss. With the record now sitting at 2-0 and Auburn and Alabama in the rear view, maybe 4-0 isn't impossible. South Carolina will not be a pushover. This game has become for the SEC title for a reason. But suddenly it seems more likely than not that UT wins out and takes the regular-season championship. If that happens, you've got to look back at the Mashack play as the catalyst that made it happen.

IHTIT: Tennessee Vols at Alabama Crimson Tide Basketball Preview (3/2/24)

2024-03-01T20:38:00.003-05:00

It's Hoops Time in Tennessee: The Vols survived game one of a brutal four-game end-of-season stretch, beating Auburn 92-84 Tuesday. Now Tennessee (22-6, 12-3 SEC, 11-6 vs Quad 1&2) gets an Alabama (20-8, 12-3 SEC, 11-8 vs Quad 1&2) team looking to avenge their 20-point loss to UT back in January. And the game is at Coleman Coliseum, where the Tide hasn't lost since November.

Tennessee trails the overall series 72-82, and is just 19-45 in Tuscaloosa. But, the series is an even 5-5 over the last 10 games, while Rick Barnes and Nate Oates are 3-3 against each other.

See the basketball glossary for more information. Click for larger version.

Bullets:

For the second game in a row, we've got a matchup of KenPom player of the year candidates ($), with Dalton Knecht currently sitting 5th, ahead of Mark Sears at 9th.
Speaking of Knecht, he has not scored 40 in a game yet this year. But there are just eight games this season where an SEC player has scored 36+, and Knecht is half of those (vs. UNC, UGA, UF, AU). Dalton has the 8th-most 30+ point games in UT history, and he's only played 28 games as a Vol.
Despite not having his best outing against Auburn, Zakai Zeigler still had nine assists and continues to lead the SEC in assists and assists/game, is third in assists/turnover ratio, and fourth in steals.
Alabama's Mark Sears is the only guard in NCAA (and just one of five players total) scoring 20+ PPG while also shooting at least 50%.
Sears has also scored 20 or more 18 times this season and he's scored 30+ twice.
Aaron Estrada became the 4th Alabama player ever to record a triple-double last Wednesday, getting 18 pts/10 ast/10 reb in Alabama's comeback win against Ole Miss.

Alabama has scored 100 points nine times this year, at least 80 points in nine straight, and at least 90 in the last five in a row. They have a KenPom offensive rating of 128.9. That's rarified air--only 2015 Wisconsin has finished a season with a higher offensive rating. And while the season isn't over, it's undeniable that Alabama's offense is elite. On the other hand, Tennessee's defense is elite: the Vols remain the only top-10 defense that has played against a top-10 schedule of offenses. Tennessee could certainly win this game.

But home court and vengeance are powerful motivators, and Alabama has both going for them in this game. This is also the only game in this season-ending stretch for Tennessee where both factors are against the Vols. When UT entered this string of quad-1 opponents, it seemed going 3-1 was the most likely outcome. As much as I hate to say it, I think this is the "and 1". The road in SEC play is unforgiving, and the Tide is out for blood after the Vols' blowout win earlier this season.

I hope I'm wrong.

Prediction: Tennessee 83, Alabama 85

Mediocre Betting Advice: KenPom has this as a one-point game. Vegas has Alabama -2.5. That .5 is vexing me; I always make my score prediction before seeing the betting line, and picked the Tide by 2, so I guess I've got to stick with Tennessee +2.5 and under 169.5. That total btw is a huge number, and I get it considering how these teams can score. The might obliterate it. But the under has hit on nine of the last 10 games between these two. The one that went over was January's 91-71 UT win, beating the total of 159.5--a O/U that was set a full 10 points lower than this game's.

Prediction Record YTD: 11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS, 7-5-1 O/U

IHTIT: Tennessee Vols vs. Auburn Tigers Basketball Preview (2/28/24)

2024-02-27T22:49:00.000-05:00

It's Hoops Time in Tennessee: With the "easy" part of the schedule behind them, Tennessee (#4, 21-6, 11-3 SEC, 11-6 vs. Quad 1&2) faces a murderer's row of quadrant 1 games to finish the regular season. First up, Auburn (#11, 21-6, 10-4 SEC, 9-6 vs. Quad 1&2) visits Knoxville in a game that will go a long way in deciding the SEC regular-season title and NCAA seeding.

Tennessee has a hefty 80-45 lead in the all-time series, including a 50-9 record in Knoxville. But the recent series has told a different story, with Auburn winning 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Preview Graphic: See the basketball glossary for more information. Click for larger version.

Bullets:

Zakai Zeigler has added the Burglar Flair! this week, being top five in the SEC in steals, steals/game, and steal %.
Johni Broome is the Flair! leader for Auburn--an SEC POY candidate and equally dangerous on both ends of the floor.
Jaylin Williams' 134.8 offensive rating is the best in the SEC. However, Williams didn't play last weekend against UGA, and he's "questionable" for Wednesday.
If Williams can't go, his offensive load will likely fall to Chad Baker-Mazara, whose 133.3 offensive rating is... checks notes... second-best in the SEC. Well crap.

You'd be hard-pressed to find two more evenly-matched teams in America than Tennessee and Auburn. The "Four Factors" are almost dead-even. Auburn gets to the line a little more as percentage of their offense. Otherwise, the two teams are within 1.1% of each other in each category. According to KenPom's adjusted efficiency, Auburn has the #15 offense and the #5 defense. Tennessee has the #21 offense and #2 defense. Dalton Knecht is #8 in the KenPom player of the year standings. Johni Broome is #4.

If you're looking for an edge in this game, it's hard to come up with one. The best I can find is Tennessee being the #1 team in SEC play at stealing the ball, and Auburn being in the bottom-third in league play at preventing steals. If ZZ and the boys can generate a couple of extra possessions, could it be the winning edge? For me, I'm going to rely on the value of home court. If the game was on the plains, I'd take the Tigers. With the game in Knoxville, I'll take the Vols.

Prediction: Tennessee 79, Auburn 75

Mediocre Betting Advice: Tennessee is a 5.5 point favorite. KenPom has the Vols winning by 3. I would not put real-life money on this game without knowing the status of Jaylin Williams. Without him, Auburn's offense has to come from somewhere else, and while the Tigers have options, on the road against one of the nation's top defenses is already a tall order. If you're really itching to bet on this game you're probably better off seeing Williams' status and making in-game bets. For the sake of the record, and assuming Williams plays, I'll take Auburn +5.5 and Over 150.5 (the over has hit in 8 of the last 10 between these teams BTW).

Prediction Record YTD: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS, 6-5-1 O/U

IHTIT: Tennessee Vols vs. Texas A&M Aggies Basketball Preview (2/24/24)

2024-02-23T22:03:00.001-05:00

It's Hoops Time in Tennessee: After surviving a closer-than-expected game against Missouri on Tuesday, winning by five after trailing by two at halftime, Tennessee (20-6, 10-3 SEC, 10-6 vs. Quad 1&2) returns home looking for revenge against Texas A&M (15-11, 6-7 SEC, 6-7 vs. Quad 1&2). The Aggies have crashed and burned after upsetting the Vols earlier this month, losing three straight. That includes losses to two of the SEC's weakest teams in Arkansas and Vanderbilt, and a blowout loss to Alabama.

Despite that 69-85 loss to the Aggies on Feb. 10, Tennessee still owns an 11-8 lead in the all-time series, although TAMU has won the last two meetings.

Preview Graphic: See the basketball glossary for more information. Click for larger version.

Where's weirdo: Since Buzz Williams can't stay in the coaches' box to call timeouts, I've hidden 10 Buzzes in this game's preview graphic. Can you find them all? (One is a little tricky.)

I wrote a significant number of words about what happened in the first meeting between these teams, and how UT avoided the upset against Mizzou. Check that out if you haven't already.

Tennessee should win this game--but they should have won the first game against the Aggies too. If A&M gets hot again from three it could be another long night. It's imperative that UT does not allow easy threes, especially early like they did in the first game.

Prediction: Tennessee 81, Texas A&M 68

Mediocre(?) Betting Advice: I was told to rename this section because the picks haven't been bad--but I'm still not taking the blame if you listen to me and lose. KenPom has the Vols as 11-point favorite. I think the home crowd--between the Checker Out and revenge factor--will juice that number up a bit. UT is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 and TAMU is 3-7. I like the Vols -10 and over 144.5

Prediction Record YTD: 9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS, 6-4-1 O/U

Distilling an Upset, or How the Vols Fell to A&M (but not Mizzou)

2024-02-22T21:12:00.001-05:00

Tennessee has a rematch Saturday with Texas A&M; a chance to avenge the Vols' only loss so far in the month of February. Since dropping that game in College Station, UT has beaten Arkansas by 29 and Vanderbilt by 35. But there was also Tuesday's five-point win at Missouri, a game the Tigers led at halftime and still led with as little as 11 minutes left. It was nearly Tennessee's second upset loss of the month, until the Vols took over in the last 10 minutes, building a lead as large as 13 points before finally winning by 5.

How did Tennessee avoid the upset loss to Mizzou, but not to the Aggies? The easy answer is that A&M is simply a better team than Missouri, and that's true. TAMU is a bubble team with a solid shot at making the field of 68 (if they can pull out of the nosedive they've been in since beating UT), while Missouri has a solid shot at going 0-fer in the SEC. But there's more to it.

Every team has something they do well, and they will probably do that thing at least passably well regardless of the competition. Texas A&M, for example, is the best rebounding team in America. A&M gets an offensive rebound over 43% of the time. That's huge--almost half the time they miss a shot, they get another chance. You know that when you play the Aggies, they're going to get a lot of offensive glass and some second chance points. That's just going to happen.

What you cannot let happen, though, is allowing teams to be good at what they're bad at. That's what happened when the Vols last visited College Station. As good as the Aggies are on the offensive glass, they are equally awful from behind the arc. TAMU is bottom 10 nationally in 3-point %. That's easily last in the SEC; the only other league team in the bottom 75 is Vandy. However A&M started out 8-12 from 3 against the Vols and built a lead they'd never relinquish. Looking at a win probability chart, you can see it happen:

Tennessee begins the game as 3.5-point favorites with a 67.7% win probability.
That quickly changes as A&M hits a three on their first shot and adds two more treys to open up an 11-8 lead in the first four minutes of the game. Tennessee's win prob. drops to 56.8%.
The Aggies blow the game open in the middle part of the 1st half, hitting three more triples in a 12-1 run, dropping UT's win prob. from 50% to less than 25%. Like the little mountain climber guy from The Price is Right, but in the wrong direction.
Even after A&M's shooting cools a bit, UT only manages one slight blip of positivity, when the lead is cut to 12 points by a ZZ 3-pointer. This was around the time Buzz Williams goes into full clown mode, galloping to the panhandle of the midcourt logo to call a timeout.

Tennessee allowed A&M to be great at something they are normally very bad at. Going into the game, I'm sure Tennessee would have loved A&M to shoot 12 first-half threes, because they would typically only make about three of them. And credit to the Aggies, they shot very well. But defensively, you've got to close out, and you've got to fight through screens or switch off of them. UT didn't do those things effectively against TAMU.

In a similar way, Tennessee nearly catastrophically lost to SEC-winless Missouri on Tuesday, again because they were letting the underdog do things they're bad at well. Two of the "Four Factors" of basketball are free throw rate (FTA/FGA) and offensive rebound %. Mizzou is bad at both--like bottom-third-nationally bad in each of those categories. On Tuesday, however, Missouri played over their heads in both stats, nearly knocking off the Vols in the process.

Tennessee starts this game as 11.5-point favorites with a 90.5% win probability. Missouri comes into the game with a 29% free throw rate and 26% on offensive rebounds.
After trending the wrong way for most of the first half, Tennessee's win probability falls by over 10 points (to 81.1%) by halftime. At this point, Mizzou has a 52% FTRt and 35% OR%, as well as a 2-point lead.
With about 15:00 left in the game, win probability is in a tailspin, hitting a game-low 65.1%. ESPN's probability calculator (Fig. A) has the Vols' chances at this point even lower, falling below the 50% mark. Missouri has a 37% FTRt and 40% OR% at this point. They are doing very well at what they usually do very bad. If this continues, UT will become the Tigers' first SEC win of the season.
At about the 10:00 mark Tennessee finally breaks through. A 14-2 Vol run cracks the game open and boosts the Vols win prob. to 99.3%. What changes during this time? Missouri only gathers two offensive rebounds and makes one trip to the line. In other words, they go back to being "[expletive] terrible" (Fig. B) at drawing fouls, despite how good they've been at it the previous 31 minutes.

So yeah, A&M is a better team than Missouri. But the biggest difference in these two games is that Tennessee cut Missouri off from doing what was winning them the game. That didn't happen against the Aggies. The lesson from these two games is that teams are going to do the thing they're good at. You have to be prepared for that inevitability. What you cannot allow is for teams to also do the things they're bad at well. It's the formula for an upset. Tennessee gets a chance to atone for those mistakes against Texas A&M in Knoxville on Saturday night.

IHTIT: Tennessee Vols at Missouri Tigers Basketball Preview (2/20/24)

2024-02-20T11:06:00.001-05:00

It's Hoops Time in Tennessee: After steamrolling Vanderbilt Saturday night, Tennessee (19-6, 9-3 SEC, 9-6 vs. Quad. 1&2) goes on the road to face Missouri (8-17, 0-12, 2-12 vs Quad. 1&2). The Tigers have been bad this season, winless in conference play--meaning they also haven't won since the calendar flipped to 2024. Eight of those 12 losses were by single digits, but Mizzou also lost to Vanderbilt in the race to the bottom of the conference.

Tennessee has a one-game lead in the all-time series against Missouri (11-10), but has only beaten the Tigers once in the last four meetings (that one win coming in Columbia in 2022).

Preview Graphic: See the basketball glossary for more information. Click for larger version.

Bullets:

Sean East and Tamar Bates are two of the best scorers in the SEC, to the point where you wonder how this team hasn't won a single conference game this season when some teams don't have one scoring option as good as either of these guys
East shoots over 50% from the field and is 9th in scoring avg. (16 ppg) and 3rd in assists (4.2)
Bates has an eFG% of 57.7% and nearly 93% from the free-throw line, by far the best in the SEC

So why, with these great scoring options, does Mizzou have no conference wins and only four wins since Thanksgiving Day? For one, a rash of injuries hasn't helped, as eight Tigers have missed at least two games with injuries this season. Senior guard Caleb Grill went out with a wrist injury in December, and Mizzou's gone 1-15 since. Also, despite Tamar Bates' fantastic FT%, they don't get to the line much.

But probably bigger than that, they are an abysmal rebounding team, especially on the offensive glass. To understand how big a deal that is, consider how Tennessee struggled at Texas A&M, a great rebounding team, and how the Vols cruised at Arkansas, another team that ranks in the bottom-third nationally in offensive rebounding just like Mizzou. In projecting how tonight's game might go, the Arkansas game is your most accurate comp.

Prediction: Tennessee 81, Missouri 63

Mediocre Betting Advice: Tennessee is 6-4 ATS in their last 10, Mizzou is 2-8. KenPom has UT as 14-point favorites. This game opened at Vols -12.5 and has moved to -11.5. I liked them at 12.5 so I would certainly take Tennessee -11.5. The O/U is at 147.5 and that's higher than my guess and the KenPom guess, so I will pick Under 147.5--but remember that Mizzou has two good scorers and could make this a shootout if they get hot.

Predictions YTD: 8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS, 5-4-1 O/U

IHTIT: Tennessee Vols vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Basketball Preview (2/17/24)

2024-02-16T17:28:00.003-05:00

It's Hoops Time in Tennessee: The Vols (18-6, 8-3 SEC, 10-6 vs. Q2+) got a nice bounce-back 92-63 win at Arkansas Wednesday night. That same night, Vanderbilt (7-17, 2-9 SEC, 1-13 Q2+) picked up their biggest win so far this season beating Texas A&M 74-73 in Nashville. It was the Dores' second SEC win this season and their first win over a Quad 1 or 2 team.

This is the second meeting between these two teams this season, with UT taking a 75-62 victory at Vandy last month. Tennessee has a 130-76 all-time lead in the series and is 76-20 at home.

Preview Graphic: See the basketball glossary for more information. Click for larger version.

Bullets:

Vandy, just like a month ago, shoots more 3s than most of the conference, but has the lowest made 3P% in the SEC, and one of the worst nationally.
The Dores also have the fewest assists per field goals made in the conference, and are among the worst in that stat nationally.
For example, last time these two met, Vandy's Ezra Manjon had the Helper flair, meaning he was one of the SEC's top assist men. Now he's got the Super Scorer flair--I'm assuming at some point he just started saying "fine, I'll do it myself".

There's not a lot to say here--Vandy has been a bad team all year. They were bad when the Vols played in Nashville a few weeks ago, when Tennessee escaped America's Worst Gym^TM with a 13-point win despite Vanderbilt's first-half 18-3 run and 35-30 halftime lead. To their credit, Vandy is coming in off their biggest win of the year, so the Dores are hotter now than they've ever been. Will it be enough to upset the Vols?

Prediction: No, it won't. Tennessee 85, Vanderbilt 62

Mediocre Betting Advice: I wrote the above score prediction before the line came out, so I guess I've locked myself into UT minus a bunch of points anyway. However 21.5 is a lot of points, and Vandy has won ATS in this series 6 of the last 10 games (including the last 4 in a row). Not to mention that the under has hit in 7 of the last 10 matchups--just some facts to consider if you ae picking this one. I'll stick to my original prediction though and go Vols -21.5 and over 140.5 anyway.

Prediction Record YTD: 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS, 4-4-1 O/U

IHTIT: Tennessee Vols vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Basketball Preview (2/14/24)

2024-02-14T12:53:00.000-05:00

It's Hoops Time in Tennessee: Tennessee (17-6, 7-3 SEC, 9-6 vs. Q1&2) returns home after a surprising loss at Texas A&M. Going into the game, the Aggies were shooting around 26% from three, so the Vols' game plan to make A&M shoot from deep would've been a sound one had the Aggies not started 8/12 from behind the line.

Arkansas (12-11, 3-7, 3-10) has had an... interesting season. And whether or not the rumors are true, there is certainly something off about this Arkansas team. The Hogs haven't lived up to their preseason prediction as the #3 team in the SEC. But after a 1-6 start to SEC play, Arkansas has won two of their last three conference games. Maybe the Hogs are getting turned around? (No, not like that.)

Preview Graphic: See the basketball glossary for more information. Click for larger version.

Heart-Shaped Bullets:

Travon Brazile and Devonte Davis would've been on the preview graphic with Tramon Mark FOR NO PARTICULAR REASON, but Brazile has an undisclosed injury and Davis stepped away from the program a couple of weeks ago.
I don't really want to focus on THE RUMORS but I'm pretty sure I would've ended up writing this preview like a middle schooler if all three were on the chart together.
It is Valentine's Day after all.
There's very little information about Brazile's injury. I made the mistake of assuming Myles Stute wouldn't lay for South Carolina, but he went 3/3 from 3 against the Vols, so if Brazile made a return tonight I wouldn't be shocked.
Arkansas hasn't done much well all season. They don't shoot well, particularly from 3... this is starting to sound like the A&M preview isn't it?
However, A&M had the strength of rebounding well all season--Arkansas really doesn't have a stat that you can point to as their identity.
They do get to the free throw line a lot. And they block shots? (3rd nationally)

This is absolutely a game Tennessee should win. Whether THE RUMORS are true or not, Arkansas has clearly been a dysfunctional, undercheiveing team this year.

BUT

They seem to be getting better, winning two of their last three. They've arguably improved since losing Devo Davis and Brazile. There's also the fact that top 10 teams are barely over .500 against unranked opponents on the road. And while Tennessee does have a slim 25-22 lead in the all-time series, the Vols only have three wins ever in Bud Walton Arena, and none since the 2008-09 season.

Prediction: Despite those facts, there's no reason to think the Vols won't win. KenPom has the Vols as 11-point favorites. Vegas has UT -8.5. Somewhere in between seems right. Tennessee 82, Arkansas 73

Mediocre Betting Advice: Stay away from top 10 teams on the road. But that's no fun. Tennessee -8.5 and Over 150.5

Prediction Records YTD: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 3-4-1 O/U

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Extraneous:

We know. https://t.co/ITztynL0ry
— DRVawl (@DRVawl) February 11, 2024

The Departure of Jerry Mack: What Does Tennessee Lose?

2024-02-12T13:25:00.000-05:00

Tennessee's running backs coach Jerry Mack is leaving Knoxville for the same position with the Jacksonville Jaguars. What is Tennessee losing with the departure of Coach Mack?

The Vols averaged 204 yards/game in 2023, good for 10th nationally and 1st in the SEC. Jaylen Wright was a breakout star, notching UT's first 1000-yard rusher since Jalen Hurd in 2015 and the 19th such season in school history. But what might stand out most about Coach Mack, and what will be an absolute necessity to replace, is his ability to develop players. Check out how the running back production improved from the two years before Jerry Mack came to UT through his tenure here:

Remember that PPA is more or less a measurement of how well you're putting the team in a position to score. Pre-Mack, the running back group was practically a dead body being poked with a stick in hopes to see some movement. Of course, you can attribute a lot of the group's success to the overall offensive revival in Knoxville since Josh Heupel took over. But despite Heupel's reputation as a passing guru, the RB group has been leaned on heavily in this offense. And this isn't the only place Coach Mack's influence has been seen. Look at the same effect from his pre-UT days as the QB coach/OC at Rice:

And while no one would accuse Rice quarterbacks of setting the world on fire, there's a clear upward trend there under Jerry Mack.

Now with Coach Mack gone, where does Josh Heupel turn? It's important to get this hire right. With a talented young running back room already in Knoxville, it's vital that they get the right development to take that next step for the offense to run at full capacity. The living fan might immediately think of former Vol Montario Hardesty, recently released from coaching RBs at South Carolina. However, I don't think the hire has to be a former running back or running backs coach at all. Mack was a WR in college and this stint with the Vols was his first time coaching backs (he coached WRs and QBs before). The more important factor is getting a developer of talent who meshes well with CJH and his staff (and a great recruiter woudn't hurt either).

IHTIT: Tennessee Vols at Texas A&M Aggies Basketball Preview (2/10/24)

2024-02-09T23:21:00.001-05:00

It's Hoops Time in Tennessee: The Vols (17-5, 7-2 SEC, 9-5 Q2+) shot a scathing 64% from three in the first half of Tuesday's game against LSU before cooling off in the second half--and still winning by 20. Meanwhile the Aggies (14-8, 5-4, 7-6 Q2+) picked up their fourth win in the last five SEC games, showing a little bit of the form A&M was expected to have from the start of this season.

Tennessee will look to avenge last season's loss at College Station, a game you might remember for the Aggies making twice as many free throws (28) as the Vols attempted (14). UT has an 11-5 overall record against TAMU, with Rick Barnes having a 3-2 edge over Buzz Williams.

Preview Graphic: See the basketball glossary for more information. Click for larger version.

Bullets:

I tweeted about this the other day, but Tennessee is the only KenPom top 10 defense that is also playing against top 10 offenses. Obviously the Vols offense is much improved this year but the defense is otherworldly.
As far as A&M's offense, they are an interesting case. The Aggies shoot horribly; they're in the bottom third of all teams in 2-point FG% and free throw % and fifth-worst nationally in 3-point FG%. That puts them in the bottom 15 nationally in effective FG%.
On the other hand, they're careful with the ball at 30th nationally in turnover %.
Probably most importantly, they live up to the M in A&M, because they are a rebounding machine. The Aggies are the best rebounding team in America, and particularly when it comes to offensive rebounds at a clip of 43.6%.
In fact, TAMU has five players who average right at or over five rebounds per game, led by Andersson Garcia (8.9 RPG) and Henry Colman (7 RPG).

Texas A&M was picked to finish second behind the Vols in the SEC preseason poll. However, the Aggies have had a rough go of it so far this season. A pretty tough non-conference slate saw losses to FAU, Virginia, Memphis, and Houston. And while there was an early SEC win over Kentucky, there was also a loss to Arkansas in their 1-3 SEC start. Since then the Aggies seem to be getting it together, winning 4 of their last 5 SEC games, however, that includes two wins over Missouri--arguably the SEC's worst team.

But in this league no road game gets to be overlooked, so while the Vols should win this game, there's always a reason to doubt. Think about that 43.6% offensive rebound rate. That means almost half of the time an Aggie shooter misses, A&M gets a second chance. That takes a lot of pressure of that terrible shooting percentage by making up in volume what is lacking in quality. I think that's the stat to track Saturday night--if A&M is getting a ton of second chance points, they can hang with UT all night. If the Vols are getting their share of boards, then A&M's poor shooting will take the Aggies out of the game.

Also see if Tennessee can avoid many "turkeys," a custom stat that Buzz Williams tracks for his team. A turkey is when the defense gets three defensive stops in a row. The Aggies are averaging over seven turkeys a game over their last five games and have at least five turkeys in all but one SEC contest this season. Of course you can't spell turkey without UT... um... not sure if that's a good or bad thing?

Prediction: Tennessee 78, Texas A&M 73

Mediocre Betting Advice: Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite. KenPom has the Vols winning by 4. Don't fool yourself into thinking that because A&M hasn't quite lived up to preseason hype that this will be an easy game. The Vols will have to battle, and at just 3.5 points, there's a lot of room for error. I'm still going to go with Tennessee -3.5 because I believe in this offense's ability to flirt with 80 points, which would also trigger the over 140.5.

Prediction Totals YTD: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS, 2-4-1 O/U

IHTIT: Tennessee Vols vs. LSU Tigers Basketball Preview (2/7/24)

2024-02-06T20:42:00.000-05:00

It's Hoops Time in Tennessee: If I had told you a week ago that Tennessee (16-5, 6-2 vs SEC, 9-5 vs quadrant 1&2) would go 1-1 in games against South Carolina and Kentucky, you'd probably be a little disappointed about the loss at Rupp, but overall not too surprised. Of course, the Vols' week went the other way around, with results against the Cocks and Cats that were equally stunning for opposite reasons. For myself, I'll trade a stinker at home for a dominant win in Rupp Arena anytime.

Meanwhile, LSU (12-9, 4-4 SEC, 4-7 Q2+) ended a three-game skid with a win against an utterly dysfunctional Arkansas team.

Preview Graphic: See the basketball glossary for more information. Click for larger version.

Bullets:

Jalen Cook was benched for Tre Hamilton to start the Arkansas game, and while it didn't make much difference in the stat line for either player, coach Matt McMahon liked the dynamic brought by shaking up the lineup.
Speaking of McMahon, he's an Oak Ridge native and coached Ja Morant at Murray State, wining a pair of NCAA tournament games in his time with the Racers, and consuming an unknown number of bean rolls at the Big Apple.
Something to track early in the game: LSU turns the ball over. A lot. 18.3% of LSU's possessions end with a turnover, including 11.2% of their possessions where the ball gets stolen (according to Kenpom). These numbers are not just near the bottom of the SEC, they're among the worst nationally. But LSU does shoot well, and if they are taking care of the ball early, could make things difficult for the Vols.

Tennessee's Jekyll & Hyde performances last week make predicting games feel like a crapshoot. All one can do is look at the data and try to trust it, and the data says the Vols should win comfortably. Kenpom has UT as 15-point favorites with a 91% win probability. LSU, for the most part, wins the games you'd think they should win and loses the ones you'd expect, too. I'd like to say the Tigers have been competitive in their conference losses, but a 21-point loss at Alabama last week hampers that narrative. There's no reason not to follow the data and expect the Vols to pull away in this one by a comfortable margin.

Prediction: Tennessee 85, LSU 69

Mediocre Betting Advice: Tennessee -14.5 (I've been decent at picking these ) and over 152.5 (I've been awful at picking these).

Prediction Totals YTD: 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS, 1-4-1 O/U

IHTIT: Tennessee Vols at Kentucky Wildcats Basketball Preview (2/3/24)

2024-02-02T23:30:00.005-05:00

It's Hoops Time in Tennessee: the Vols (15-5, 5-2 SEC, 8-5 Q2+) and Kentucky (15-5, 5-3, 5-4 Q2+) had eerily similar weeks. Each team tried to defend its home court from an upstart SEC squad looking to make a serious move in the conference rankings, and each team failed. UT and UK both limp into Saturday night's contest staring up at the SEC leaders knowing that a win keeps the top of the SEC within view. However, a loss would make even securing a bye to the quarterfinals in next month's SEC tournament an uphill battle.

Preview Graphic: See the basketball glossary for more information. Click for larger version.

Bullets:

This Kentucky team averages 1.95 years of experience according to Kenpom, making them practically ancient by Calipari's standards. Each of Cal's Final Four teams at UK averaged closer to a year or less of experience.
In contrast, Tennessee averages 2.78 years of experience, the 26th-most experienced team in the NCAA.
A chunk of UK's experience comes from the two seniors in this week's graph. Illinois State transfer Antonio Reeves scores 19.5/game and has gone over 20 ten times. Journeyman Tre Mitchell is the team's leading rebounder and has three double-doubles in SEC play.
One anomaly from the graph: Rob Dillingham doesn't typically start for the Cats, but his usage rate is through the roof. That means when Dillingham is on the floor, the offense goes through him. In games against ranked opponents, the freshman guard scores 15.7 PPG and makes 53.8% of his threes.
Another freshman guard, Reed Shepard, dishes 4.2 assists per game and his 54.2% from three leads the nation.
Did I mention the two international 7-footers? 'Cause they have that too.
Here's something to look for: Kentucky is statistically good at a lot of things, but they're bad at offensive rebounds. If the Cats are getting second chance points early, it's probably going to be a long day for Tennessee.

Rupp Arena opened in 1976. Kentucky has lost back-to-back games in Rupp just 7 times since. Most recently, it happened twice in the 2020-21 season, with COVID crowds being limited to just a few thousand fans. A full-strength Rupp hasn't seen a losing streak of even just two games since the 2008-09 season (it happened twice). Tennessee went 3-1 in Rupp from 2018 to 2021, but hasn't won there in the last two trips, and the games weren't particularly close.

Knowing all that, why did the Vols open as 1.5-point favorites? Well, even after Tuesday's loss to South Carolina, the computers still love UT: Kenpom has Tennessee as 2-pont favorites, for example. It's certainly a game Tennessee can win. But it's hard to assume they're going to. If you believe defense travels, and you believe Tennessee's cold shooting Tuesday was a blip and not a trend, then take the Vols. If you believe in 3s and home court advantage, take Kentucky.

Prediction: Tennessee 73, Kentucky 70. Defense travels.

Mediocre Betting Advice: Confidence level here is low, but emotions are high. Tennessee -1.5 and under 159.5 just because I think if this game stays out of the 80s, UT wins.

Prediction Totals: (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 1-3-1 O/U)

NCAA Investigates Vols over NIL: A Twitter (X) Roundup

2024-01-30T20:11:00.000-05:00

Apparently the NCAA thinks you can’t spell investigation without UT.

News broke Tuesday that Tennessee is being investigated by the NCAA for potential violations involving name, image, and likeness benefits. Pat Forde seems practically gleeful to break this story:

Sources: Less than a year after its last infractions case concluded, Tennessee is under NCAA investigation again. The inquiry covers multiple sports and is described as "major." https://t.co/eE5sXYk0HE
— Pat Forde (@ByPatForde) January 30, 2024

Let’s dive into the Forde article for a second. Paragraph two outlines the infractions committed under Jeremy Pruitt and ends

“Now the school is back in the NCAA’s crosshairs, a recurrence that could have significant consequences.
Details are scarce on what Tennessee is potentially facing in the latest case, including the number of involved sports. The school acknowledged the investigation to SI, but declined further comment, other than to say it has not received a notice of allegations from NCAA Enforcement.”

So there will be “significant consequences”, but “details are scarce” and there’s no notice of allegations. Does UT have a real concern here? Here’s look at how X users and especially Vol Twitter reacted to Forde’s article

Maybe the most important quote from the article, buried five paragraphs in, and I’ll let VOLNUGS take it:

"A source familiar with the inquiry tells SI that Tennessee does not believe it has committed any violations in the NIL realm. The source cited NCAA guidance in that evolving area as “vague and contradictory.”
— VOLNUGS (@VOLNUGS) January 30, 2024

Or as Austin Price put it,

Good luck to Indy. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 https://t.co/l55QVTPCke
— Austin Price (@AustinPriceless) January 30, 2024

Despite the fact that Forde only cited “sources”, he did not make this investigation up. It is confirmed that there is an investigation ongoing:

Yes, Tennessee is under investigation by the NCAA. But as we’ve seen in other cases, that’s a long way from being able to prove anything.

Interested to see how the NCAA goes about its digging into a number of schools https://t.co/rehvMEUrcF
— Trey Wallace (@TreyWallace_) January 30, 2024

…however…

No Notice of Allegations or specifics on the sports involved. Let's hold off on the "downfall of Tennessee" takes for now.
— Barrett Sallee 🇺🇸 (@BarrettSallee) January 30, 2024

I do not know the validity of this, but found it interesting:

intercollegiate athletic events, unless the intercollegiate athlete has committed a violation of the rules of an institution or an athletic association or this act is invalidated or rendered unenforceable by operation of law.”

Good luck NCAA
— Ericvol2096 (@EricQuiz2096) January 30, 2024

By midafternoon, Donde Plowman effectively told the NCAA to sit and spin:

BREAKING:

Tennessee's Donde Plowman slams NCAA as 'morally wrong' over NIL investigation, email shows to NCAA president showshttps://t.co/Dl0hyIUhUE
— Adam Sparks (@AdamSparks) January 30, 2024

Well Donde Plowman just became the most popular chancellor in Tennessee history. Would expect donations to skyrocket. https://t.co/Wb01UuqUsM
— Rob Lewis (@Volquest_Rob) January 30, 2024

More like:

Donde Plowed-em

💥 💥 💥 https://t.co/y176zJLBI8
— 🟠⚪️ The VFL Show ⚪️🟠 (@TheVFLshow) January 30, 2024

Gold https://t.co/EgEp93DeD3
— Robert McVol (@vol_equalizer) January 30, 2024

That one continued to evolve:

Here is a better version of this photo I’ve seen floating around. I took some artistic liberties to make it great. Arm yourself. pic.twitter.com/8iwUksHDQU
— Astro Smokey (@AstroSmokeyX) January 30, 2024

Couple of other items I liked, and though we probably don’t need current players tweeting about the situation:

Mannnnn they done wanna see us be great 🤷🏽‍♂️ got ourselves a squad now so they just gotta hate - stay woke 🧏🏽‍♂️ https://t.co/j2RhdJKxN0
— Daevin Hobbs (@DaevinH) January 30, 2024

Preach. And the Vol Club couldn’t have timed a tweet any better:

pic.twitter.com/uV7CaaPQUo
— The Volunteer Club 🪶 (@TheVolClub) January 30, 2024

Although they promise that’s about tonight’s game, and nothing else.

I've been asked my opinion on the topic, and it's probably similar to yours. It seems to me that the NCAA might just peruse this matter to their own demise, as more schools come under investigation for braking rules that don't exist and likely couldn't be enforced by the NCAA if they did exist. It smells of an outdated institution, much like Pat Forde and Sports Illustrated, desperately clinging to any former authority they might have had.