Corona and the Future World

Corona and the future World

2020-06-02T00:58:00.001+05:30

As the world governments are opening or easing the lock downs the major concern for common citizens have been for their jobs and businesses. The world events affect common citizens ever more in a globalized world. Global lock down has been unprecedented event likes of which the world has never seen. This is the beginning of the Bronze Age collapse of modern age civilization, except this will be very slow and painful collapse. While as Common citizens we read and we hold our own opinions on these world events, we usually do not have the power or say over them. That is why the focus of my article is on effects of global lock down on common citizens and how can they minimize the impact of their lives and livelihoods.

The Post Lock down scenario

The unplanned and foolishly implemented global lock down has accelerated the pre-lock down problems at a catastrophic rate in addition to the new problems brought about by pandemic.

The leadership that brought about catastrophe of lock down on the world is still present and hence there is little hope from the world governments to manage the fallout. The economic problems, climate change and crony capitalists holding majority of world’s wealth have been around before Covid virus had hit. Many experts have begun to warn about an economic depression the size of which the world has never seen. Besides economic catastrophe, there are a lot of other aspects the fallout from global lock down will bring that experts are not speaking about.

Economic fallout

Debt ridden world economy was already slowing down substantially, with right wing governments reversing the progress from World trade regime and also US China trade wars. The global lock down has accelerated this down turn into a global depression.

The media economists will say all sorts of mambo jumbo which will only confuse you. The simplest way to understand the economic fallout is using Maslow’s pyramid, a good tool that will help us understand which industries or businesses are likely to float and which ones are in danger of suffering or being wiped out.

Pyramid represents Maslow's Hierarchy of needs

A theory of motivation developed by Abraham Maslow stacks the human needs in form of a pyramid with basic needs being at the lowest level. This theory can be used as a tool to predict the industries and businesses that would better placed to weather the impending depression. When the economy is down people prefer to fulfill their basic needs and tend to favor industries and companies that are at a lower level of the pyramid. Consider industries such as food industry, clothing industry and basic necessities industries that provide electricity, water and communication services at the bottom of the pyramid. Consider insurance and personal security on the second step of pyramid. As you go up the pyramid you will find industries like tourism, real estate and luxury industries. The worst the depression more the industries at the top of the pyramid will suffer.

Hence common people need to focus their businesses and employment on industries at the bottom or at least lower down the pyramid. Moving out of industries that are at the top of Maslow’s Pyramid like tourism, luxury goods and such industries that people can do without in difficult times. It is wise to move into essential or products that are important to people at present for example, security. This is always not possible but those who can would be able to reduce the impact of depression in their lives.

The graph also supports the Maslow’s theory, but the graph represents the economy during the lock down period. While post lock down other needs would gain priority as businesses start and people try to resume their daily lives. Then industries like personal health, personal hygiene, education, manufacturing, pharma, business travel etc. will also show growth.

Move Online

Businesses will aggressively move online post lock down. Even those who shunned online businesses or were apathetic to it have now been forced to use online means to conduct their businesses. The employees were told to work from homes. Therefore business will move online more than ever. Moving online will also save costs for businesses for example companies were already looking for freelancing their work whenever possible, will now look to online freelancing sites to get their work done saving salaries and office expenses. Automation will be huge as companies have realized that Human workers have weaknesses and investing in automation will save them many costs in the long run. New social distancing norms will further push businesses to move online or automate.

Therefore, if you move your business and employment online it would help reduce impact of post lock down depression on your income. For those who seek employment, I suggest that they also need to look for freelancing work online and generate some side income online. They should also have presence online to find employment. It would be harder to find employment or business offline during these times.

Safety and security

The failing economy and job losses will bring poverty on a massive scale. For over populated third world nations the problems will be many folds. The unemployment and poverty will force people to life of crime creating security issue in many countries. There will be increased robbery, theft, murder and rapes. There will be increase in cons as criminals will try to con honest citizens. Your homes, offices and neighborhoods will not be safe anymore. Many countries will face organized crimes, gang wars and police corruption.

Hence it would be wise to focus on security of your families and properties. From better locks to safety measures like avoiding travelling at night to whatever is most suitable in your situation. Do everything possible to safeguard yourself and your family from harm. Beware of con men, they come in many forms friends, business partners, government officials or service provider, be on your guard at all times. Hard times forces even otherwise good people to commit unethical acts.

Supply Chain disruption

The supply chains have been affected and the supply chain system is exposed during this pandemic. Expect food and other essential commodities shortage and prepare for the same. This at the same time will also offer opportunities for those who can take advantage.

Children's education

The education system and your children's future will not go unaffected from this event. You will need to rethink their careers with the dynamic world we live in. Children need to have online presence and under adult supervision. Children also should be taught to generate some side income online. This is important to help them be financially secure. They need to be prepared for the very turbulent future ahead.

Infrastructure

The infrastructure projects may see a temporary upturn in some countries as part of efforts to save jobs post lock down. This may be opportunity for some but in the long run infrastructure development and even maintenance would suffer. This would ultimately have very negative impact on economy, businesses and law & order as well.
New Challenges

I had stated earlier in my Blog posts that people are scared due to media hype. Hence, Covid 19 pandemic is posing new challenges. Social distancing norms are order of the day and large public gatherings are shunned. Until the fear dies out these will continue to pose challenges to our normal lives. Besides the financial loss suffered during lock down people have unfounded fear of Covid virus thanks to false media propaganda. This is preventing people from going out to businesses that are open. Contrary to popular belief that economies run on hard numbers, economies actually runs on emotions.

It depends on people’s sentiments when they feel hopeful they spend and economy grows and when they are scared about their future they avoid purchases and economy tanks. The situation we have right now is that people are extremely scared as governments have been extending lock downs in some form or other because they have foolishly decided that they will end infection with lock downs. Now people have lost trust in their governments and even when lock down is lifted the growing numbers of infected will only worry the public as to if the lock downs would be lifted and also as regards to their financial future. We will have to live with the virus and will have to work with behavior of the people around it.

Long Term implication
The world changing events bring about permanent changes or at least their effects remain for decades. This event came at a time when the planet is already facing many problems.

The world population will be impacted, not by deaths from Corona virus, but the stupidity that was lock down. Million will die of poverty, migration, riots and crimes resulting from this event. This event will follow with dip in world population in the coming years. We may also see political changes and wars due to extreme economic pressures. Safety and security should be top priority for common citizens be it financial or personal. You should not hesitate to plan migration in the long term if you feel your country’s or area’s situation will deteriorate in the future. The long term effects will not be visible in months to come in fact you may even see a temporary spurt in activity a few months after lock down. The real economic effect of the lock downs would only begin to show up after companies will start posting losses at the end of their quarters and media starts spreading panic. The media is more dangerous than actual impact as economies run on emotions and fear is very toxic for the markets. Many experts have already warned that the economy will recover very slowly this time around.

The future

The Covid 19 Pandemic is a creation of Human interference into nature. The spread of infection is blatant failure of the governments. The response to that failure with lock downs and letting mad media go on with their fear mongering in the name of free speech has resulted in this catastrophe. Only knowledge is way out of this situation, unfortunately scared people seldom listen to logic.

For common citizens, make no mistake you will be living watching your back from here on. If you are a minority be extra vigilant. This is no longer a normal life as you knew it. There is a lot more that will kill you or harm you then Corona virus. In fact Corona Virus should not be a worry for you.

The real threat is from desperate people, greedy irresponsible and foolish governments and people

trying to swindle you. You will have to work extra hard, avoid unnecessary expenses extra hard and keep your security high extra hard from here on. Expecting from the governments will only increase your misery as the governments have long been sold to corporate and it is there decision making that led you here. Remember there is always someone making money when people are losing money. So find ways of making money, the difficult times only make us strong. Take heart in the fact that if you survive these times you will be ready to face anything coming your way.

The aim of this article is not to scare but warn people for impending problems so that they minimize the impact on their lives.

Good luck surviving the start of the end.

Why Global Lock Down? Part 2

2020-05-16T07:22:00.000+05:30

Citizens all over the world are hoping that this lock down ends and that they can return to their lives like they were pre-pandemic and yet there is a fear of the Corona virus instilled by the media that makes them think that this lock down is beneficial for them. I would like to puncher the lies spread by the media to justify this lock down and open people’s eyes to the gaping holes in government’s narrative. Also show how their aim is not in line with WHO’s suggestions.

When you make such enormous decisions like they are small decisions it is easy to get in but the way out is hard to find. The decision to lock down has to be the greatest blunder of the new millennium. I would top it over decision to invade Afghanistan by US in 2002-2003. They did not care to listen to experts who only wanted to ‘flatten the curve’ i.e slow down the infection rate. Instead they made it a goal to wipe out the virus all by themselves and a good amount of help from mentally and morally bankrupt main stream media. Result, what should have been dealt with education campaigns, investment in Healthcare infrastructure and quarantine for old and sick only turned into a devastating lock down situation. Just like Afghanistan and Iraq war this will be judged as a foolish blunder and fear psychosis by history.

The dilemma of the governments is that they have made a huge issue of this disease so much so that they sold the idea of actually locking their whole countries. The disease unfortunately for them, is not turning out to be as dangerous as it was sold out. It is still a highly contagious disease and it will not be wiped out by simply locking down the population. If you see the WHO latest strategy report,

link in the reference section, it does not say anywhere that the disease will be wiped out completely. The whole idea of research for vaccine is based on the premise that you need to vaccinate people in order to completely wipe out the disease. I wonder who gave the idea to our governments that Covid 19 Virus can be wiped out by lock down only. The infection is showing no sign of abetting if anything it is only increasing and even the areas that were marked as recovered are showing resurgence. So when some media person occasionally say that we might have to live with the Corona disease I laugh because where did they get the idea that Corona virus will be wiped out by lock down alone in the first place. Now that the result of this failed strategy is coming to roost the governments are clueless in getting out of the mess created by them.

The fact is governments are running out of time because the lock down is not only costing the economy but may run into danger of public disorder and severe shortage of essential supplies resulting in more deaths then the possible Covid 19 deaths toll. The food supply will become a challenge for many countries as the production; processing, packaging and supply chain are halted. . The lock down has already started taking toll on the poor and people have started dying from it. The well to do have lost their jobs and many businesses are already bankrupt or on the verge of it. The politicians who so foolishly took the decision to lock down without an ounce of thought are now afraid of getting exposed for what they actually are, careless foolish frauds. This is why there seems to be no end in sight from lock down. The blame game has already started. There are two main functions the public needs from any government, security and managing our money that citizens pay as taxes. The governments have failed in both.

Therefore it is up to the people to use their common sense. Know that the Corona virus is not going away we will have to live with it and thankfully it is not as deadly as it is projected to be. Know that in reality the disease is not the danger but the stupidity is. Know that it is not the governments who will help them, but the end of lock down will. It is people who need to be educated and rise up and demand end to this lock down. For it will be people who will suffer as the bail outs are coming from their own income tax dollars or in case where there are no bail out more of common citizen’s suffering. If you keep quite now there will be nothing left to go out to. Governments will refuse to take responsibility and say that they were merely protecting lives and that they are out of money to help public anymore. They will use the force of policing to keep them in power.

Whatever the reasons may be but surely this is a historic event that will change the world as we know it forever.

In the last part of the series I would like to discuss the future. While most experts are only focused on financial effects only, there are many more implications that the lock down brings. I would be discussing the economic, social and global impact of the virus on common citizen and what it can common citizen do at the best of his or her abilities to protect themselves and their families from the effects.

I hope you found these posts informative and eye opening. I would request you to visit again for the last and most important section the end of the 3 part series on Corona Virus and future world.

Please leave your comments they are very valuable to me. Thanks.

References:-

WHO Strategy Report

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/covid-strategy-update-14april2020.pdf?sfvrsn=29da3ba0_19

Covid 19 Dashboard

https://covid19.who.int/?gclid=Cj0KCQjw-_j1BRDkARIsAJcfmTEDKopcubedgKXfEK3V7CSYcl65at0Bv6o87XMHCoutIAHXKUYvi1AaArrYEALw_wcB

Why Global Lock Down?

2020-05-11T21:40:00.003+05:30

Covid-19

This is a three part series of Blogs that tries to make sense of world changing event that is Covid outbreak and it's subsequent response. I am trying to use common sense and logic in an effort to answer questions about the steps taken by the governments and also to figure out what it would mean for common man. People are puzzled about the world economy and their own economic future.

To start with, can someone tell me why a disease with a death rate of just 3 to 6 %, mostly among old and sick, warrant a Global lock down?

We have been told if they had not implemented a Global lock down, hospitals would have been overrun. Even burial grounds and streets would be filled with funeral processions. People would not find place to bury or cremate the dead.

Has anyone around the world seen such sites? Even Italy at its height of Covid 19 has not seen such a situation. It is important to mention that Italy has large elderly population who are more susceptible to death from Covid 19. Sweden has also not implemented any lock down. I know media is crying out that death rate in Sweden is over 2000 deaths compared to rest of Europe where the death rate has been only some 200 plus. I should remind you that media had been shouting out that all would die if no lock down is implemented but we have seen nothing of this sort in Sweden. Any loss of life is regrettable yet prevention comes at a heavy cost of destroying an already fragile world economy. Those countries that have implemented lock down have pushed their people into poverty and debt and for what, their own mistakes. The governments around the world have been caught with their pants down during this pandemic. The best chance any government had was to control the borders by quarantine and controlling the people coming at the airports and sea ports. That is all they had to do and yet not a single government in those countries hit by Corona were able to control the virus at their ports. So they did the next best thing they shifted the entire burden on their population. There is talk of relief package by many governments. Unfortunately the money governments spend comes from people so relief package or not all nations that have implemented the lock down will suffer poverty and debt. The relief package is just a temporary measure just like the lock down. They are applying band aid to disease like Covid 19, pun intended. Whole industries like Airlines, Hospitality, Real Estate and Tourism are in danger of being wiped out completely. Millions have lost their jobs in US already. Companies are struggling to pay wages. Largest of companies have slashed their employee’s salaries half or even stopped paying salaries altogether in recent months. People are afraid for their economic future. The social distancing norms and fear of Covid 19 virus will further slowdown the global economy recovery.

I truly wonder how was the decision making process held by the governments when WHO came to warn them? Did they call their disease experts and ask them what the death rate, spread rate, incubation period and mode of spread are for this disease? Did they ask them who are more vulnerable? Did they call on their demographic experts, their economic experts and their security experts before plunging their nation into the unknown? Or did they do what I fear they did, which is to open their favorite local television, so called News channel, who told them the virus is too deadly and will wipe out the entire nation in days, and then they simply announced to their citizens that they will be put into painful punishing house arrest because their beloved government failed to do their duty.

In this scenario, I am not the only one who is wondering if the cure has been more harmful then the disease.

Experts had already warned that Covid-19 Virus cannot be stopped by lock down it was suggested only to slowing down the rate of infection. Now we see ever more cases following the lock down. Clearly the lock down has not only failed but has been disastrous.

So the question stands why Global lock down was implemented?

Reference:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/disaster-medicine-and-public-health-preparedness/article/lockdown-or-lockup/9F286092E2B99497440CDB332029731D