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What their youth did not know is that Operation Twist did not work — nor will it now, as gimmicks of this kind can only provide temporary relief. Operation Twist was followed by Nixon’s Wage and Price Controls, which also failed, and then by Ford’s “WIN” policy — an acronym for Whip Inflation Now.

We expect rates to work their way higher over the coming cycles, as will be explained in the coming Review, owing to the lack of population, immigration, and fertility growth, combined with an uncontrollable Federal deficit over which the Fed has very little control across several major contributing area

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FOR THE ENTIRE REPORT, MUST BE A CT CAPITAL RESEARCH CLIENT

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With more than fifty‑three years of experience as a security analyst—and having recognized early the central importance of the cost of equity as a reflection of risk to prospective free cash flows—I regard credit as an indispensable component of that framework.

Credit considerations permeate every dimension of valuation. In the more readily observable areas, this includes the stability and composition of revenues, supported by statistical analysis of frequency, magnitude, and duration. In the more technical domains—actuarial assumptions, global tax‑code structures, and the reclassification errors we routinely identify—credit remains equally foundational.

As U.S. population growth decelerates to historically low levels, and as several other developed economies confront outright demographic contraction (as discussed in our most recent client‑only review), we have continued to refine our cost‑of‑capital models in both quantitative and qualitative terms. Demographic dynamics now stand alongside credit as structural determinants of long‑term discount rates.

Over the course of our work, there is little within the field of finance that we have not undertaken or examined: global M&A engagements, fairness opinions for publicly traded entities, responsibility for a change in SEC reporting requirement, and a range of academic contributions, including publications in the Journal of Accounting, chapters in CFA‑recommended texts, and lectures delivered at the Stern School of Business at New York University.

CT Capital Research and Investment Advisory

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As I write this, the market is in a tailspin: the Nasdaq is down 322 points (1.4%) and the S&P 500 has shed 0.75%. Even companies with rock-solid fundamentals are seeing 5%+ intraday drops, marking yet another chapter in a long saga of senseless daily volatility.

Who knows where we go from here? Tomorrow, the indexes could swing 4% to the upside based on nothing more than the whims of momentum traders.

While our account is currently up 27 basis points today—and also outperforming for the quarter—we take no comfort in this chaos. Only God knows which side of the bed traders will wake up on tomorrow, let alone next month when the quarter ends and another flash flood of cash emerge.

We have grave concerns regarding the influence of massive day-trading operations. When trillions of dollars are moved by high-frequency algorithms rather than economic analysis, it distorts the cost of capital. For analysts and companies worldwide, this volatility wreaks havoc on the ability to efficiently raise capital.. Furthermore, it baits “weak-kneed” investors into emotional selling, stripping them of their confidence and jeopardizing the stability of 401(k)s and retirement funds.

Stock volatility has a large impact on credit securities, employee morale, and perhaps even vendor financing.

To restore financial market efficiency and their reason for being, we call for a 90% tax on all day-trading profits.

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We have lowered our credit rating on Tesla as car sales continue to drop, along with Chinese inroads in humanoid robots.

Other factors, such as self-driving vehicles, will also be powered by batteries, while their AI as well as……………………………

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For the past quarter (firms with a December 31 year), the current quarter estimates were due December 15 but covers the quarter ending November with the “true-up” due typically by Mar 15, unless extended. As our firms are global in scope, with tax a large cash usage, foreign taxation and other non-US cash costs, including pensions where rules are different, are important to our analytical adjustments.

In equity markets such as that of 2025, not much of the above takes precedence to investors, but over the course of cycles, it sure does.

Tariffs can affect multiple financial statement accounts, including Inventory and its outflow expense, capital expenditures, the cost basis of purchased assets subject to depreciation, and general operating expenses. Furthermore, the US seller is impacted by increased input costs for imported manufacturing components, which affects the Statement of Cash Flows. While our full analysis accounts for complex areas such as asset impairment, these are beyond the scope of this report.

FOR THE FULL REPORT, YOU MUST BE A CREDIT TRENDS RESEARCH CLIENT

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This quarter, we have attached a significant report detailing the analysis of Cash from Operating Activities.

Our methodology begins with a fundamental shift from the commonly reported Indirect Method presented to shareholders, to the analytically and intuitively superior Direct Method.

Although the Direct Method provides more transparent insight into a company’s true cash velocity, the FASB has thus far been unsuccessful in mandating its use by reporting entities. As outlined in the report, we further refine this baseline by applying our proprietary normalization adjustments to the Direct Method, ensuring the resulting figures reflect the true economic health and sustainable liquidity of the firm.

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