Crew Capital Management Investment Thoughts

Top 5 Changes to 401(k)'s in 2012

2012-01-18T13:24:00.004-05:00

Below is a list of the "Top 5 Changes" and they are big ones. They will have a big impact.

1) Fee Disclosure - people are going to be shocked how much they are paying
2) 401(k) Advice - going beyond just education to advice/management
3) Investment Modeling - will increase
4) Simple, Low-Cost Options - will expand or let's call it indexing
5) Individual savings - will increase

Source Article

Are Luxury Properties a Good Investment

2012-01-17T11:06:00.002-05:00

Law of Supply and Demand.

Source: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000066979

Jack Welch - "Washington is Creating a Repressive Environment"

2012-01-09T11:16:00.003-05:00

Source: CNBC Link

Five Ideas for Guaranteed Returns in 2012: Analysis

2012-01-03T10:50:00.000-05:00

Five Ideas for Guaranteed Returns in 2012: Analysis

ECRI Recession Call Update

2012-01-02T09:47:00.002-05:00

Interesting 8 minute video linked below. In summary, ECRI predicts we are in or will be soon in a recession. As usual it can't be confirmed until about a year after it starts.

ECRI Link

2012 Outlook

2011-12-30T13:31:00.004-05:00

Ponzi Land

2011-12-20T16:18:00.003-05:00

Source: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000063322

Sometimes We Lose Perspective (from Advisor Perspectives)

2011-11-29T11:00:00.003-05:00

Below is a copy of a recent article from Advisor Perspectives. It highlights that one's perspective can dramatically effect their feelings. In summary, managing perspective is critical for a successful investment experience.

It’s been a rough ride lately for investors. Looking back over the course of my lifetime, however, what has been particularly exceptional is not recent market swings – these come and go – but rather the return one would have earned if they had been continuously invested in the stock market over the past 60-plus years.

The focus du jour is on the European debt crisis and our own struggling economy. At home, we see high unemployment, slow growth and a continuing deficit problem. The Occupy Wall Street movement reminds us that we spent billions of taxpayer money bailing out financial institutions that don’t look a whole lot more responsible today than they did five years ago. Overseas we watch as country after country struggles on the brink of insolvency. We have become numb reading about war and unrest in the Middle East and Africa. Confidence in our politicians has evaporated.

We ask ourselves if things could get much worse.

At times like these, it is easy to lose perspective. The truth is we have been here before, many times, although the details are always different. This is really quite familiar territory.

Over the course of my lifetime, US large-cap equities have returned over 11% compounded annually. A dollar invested when I was born in 1950 would be worth well over $600 today. Some might consider that remarkable, considering what markets have endured over that time period:

Tough markets and bad economies

Ten bear markets
Ten recessions (averaging about 10 months apiece)
The tech bubble collapse
The housing bubble collapse

Government bailouts

Penn Central Railroad ($3.2 billion in 1970)
Lockheed ($1.4 billion in 1971)
Franklin National Bank ($7.8 billion in 1974)
New York City ($9.4 billion in 1975)
Chrysler ($4 billion in 1980)
Continental Illinois National Bank & Trust ($9.5 billion in 1984)
The S&L industry ($293 billion in 1989)
The TARP program ($19 billion in 2008)
The automobile industry bailout ($130 billion in 2008)

Unemployment

In 18 calendar years it has exceeded 7%
In seven calendar years it exceeded 8%
In five calendar years it exceeded 9% (not counting 2011)
In three calendar years it exceeded 10%
It was almost 11% in 1982 (10.8%)

World economic crises

Latin American debt crisis (early 1980s)
Japanese asset bubble burst (early 1990s)
Asian debt crisis (1997)
Russian debt crisis (1998)
Original Article Link

Higher Profits - But No Jobs

2011-11-15T09:48:00.004-05:00

"If companies can produce more output now than in 2007 with fewer workers and record profits, where's the incentive to hire more workers?" Corporations have learned to do more with less, a self imposed austerity. Innovation and increased demand (worldwide)are the key factors needed to push employment.

Source: Article Link

NFL Player Loses $50 Million

2011-11-02T09:12:00.003-04:00

Mark Brunell Loses $50 million and will be forced to get a 8 to 5 job after retirement. It is reported that 78% of all NFL players are bankrupt or in financial distress 2 years after their last game.

Crew Capital is working with Omniology LLC to stop this from happening. Check out our 2 min. video clip on our website.

Worst Decisions Made at Market Extremes

2011-10-28T08:32:00.004-04:00

The 5 minute video below provides interesting insight for managing one's portfolio as they enter retirement. I call it the "bucket portfolio", since people compartmentalize it's a way for them to manage behavior. It calms their fears by having three years of spending safe and secure. Then, the next five years spending is invested in a relatively mild portfolio. One that exposes them to additional mild risk for an enhanced return. The remainder of the portfolio is focused on the long-term.

In case the video doesn't start click the following:
Video Link

Comments on Greece Debt Deal

2011-10-27T15:56:00.001-04:00

Scroll Down

Bob Rodriguez Blasts - Bernanke, Congress and Consumer

2011-10-24T10:06:00.003-04:00

A must read interview. Here is a quote from the article - "The country is headed for recession next year, Rodriguez forecasts. His outlook for the markets? Unequivocally cautious. Congress and the Obama administration have created high levels of uncertainty that continue to create volatility and a negative bias in the markets, the money manager says."

Below is a link to the article, well worth your time to read.

Bob Rodriguez Interview Link

Inflation At 3-Year High of 3.9%

2011-10-20T11:17:00.001-04:00

Source Article Link

New Research Challenges 4% Withdrawal Rule

2011-10-19T15:01:00.007-04:00

"New, award-winning research shows some people might be able to spend more in retirement, says a professor who recently published his own controversial paper that says retirement planning should focus on savings rates rather than withdrawal rates.

This is illustrated in the new research article, “Determining Optimal Withdrawal Rates: An Economic Approach,” by Duncan Williams and Michael Finke of Texas Tech University. The article appears in the Fall 2011 issue of the Retirement Management Journal, and it won the journal’s Academic Thought Leadership Award. Williams and Finke find that an aggressive retiree with a $1 million nest egg and a guaranteed Social Security income base of $20,000, could actually maximize their utility with a 7 percent withdrawal rate. So much for the 4 percent rule!"

Article Link

Source: www.fa-mag.com/online-extras/8890-new-research-challenges-4-withdrawal-rule.html

Feds Effect on Lowering Interest Rates

2011-10-17T13:14:00.003-04:00

Bespoke said:

"The chart above shows the yield on the ten-year U.S. treasury going back to September 2008. The red dots in the chart represent each time where the Fed formally announced intentions to buy Treasuries in the open market (QE1, QE2, and Operation Twist). As shown, following each of the prior two announcements, the yield on the 10-year rose by more than 100 basis points (bps) in just a matter of months. Following its most recent announcement in September, the yield on the 10-year is already up 36 bps.

While one could argue that yield declined ahead of each of the prior announcements due to the fact that each move was widely telegraphed, at face value it appears that the Fed’s attempts to lower long-term interest rates have been futile."

Source: SeekingAlpha - http://seekingalpha.com/article/299771-fed-efforts-to-reduce-long-term-interest-rates-strike-3

The Lost Decade

2011-10-11T09:23:00.004-04:00

The past decade has not meet financial planning expectations. If you had retired at the beginning of 2000 and had used historical returns for your financial projections your portfolio is approximately 50% of its original value. This all depends on your withdrawal rate.

One most be vigilant in managing one's portfolio.

Source: SeekingAlpha - Doug Short 10-11-2011

Is the US like Rome or Bysantium?

2011-10-06T10:28:00.002-04:00

Classicist Victor Davis Hanson explains causes of Rome’shttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif fall and how the U.S. might follow Byzantium’s more hopeful path.

The article highlights three negative challenges the US faces:

1) Societal shift toward redistribtuion of capital from creatio of capital.
2) Declining demographics
3) Outsourcing of morality form the individual to the state.

Great read!

Article Link

When Greece Defaults - Two Possible Outcomes

2011-09-27T09:25:00.002-04:00

Below is a very interesting article addressing the two possible outcomes when Greece defaults. Each outcome has meaningful impact on one's portfolio. It is prudent to prepare for either outcome.

When Greece Defaults Article Link

Rare Move - Berkshire Buys Back Shares

2011-09-26T10:00:00.003-04:00

In a rare move Berkshire Hathaway is purchasing its own shares. The have approximately $38 Billion in cash and will purchased shares up to a reduced cash balance of $20 Billion. Berkshire has trailed the S&P 500 for the year, down approximately -17.2% vs. -9.6% for the S&P 500.

CNBC Article Link

4 Ways to Spot a Retirement Scam

2011-09-22T16:09:00.002-04:00

They are:

1)Everyone can retire early. The fact is that few workers can actually do so.

2)It’s possible to earn as much in retirement as it is if you continue working. These promises are based on unrealistically high returns and withdrawal amounts that would deplete savings too quickly.

3)Returns of 12% or more are possible. The fact sheet notes that returns over 9.6% exceed the historical long-term returns for the stock market and far exceed the long-term returns for the bond market.

4)It’s possible to withdraw 7% or more and not run out of money. The fact sheet acknowledges that there is no consensus on a universally appropriate withdrawal rate, but encourages investors to be conservative, especially in the first years of retirement.

Source: Article Link

FINRA Checklist Link

Fed Invokes "Operation Twist"

2011-09-21T15:50:00.002-04:00

Below is a link to a LA Times article discussing the latest fed action. It is an interesting move used to lower longer term interest rates. Last time is was used was in the 60's; it had minimum impact to improving the economy then. The fear is that the same outcome will happen this time, as well. The US and the world are not in a normal recessionary time period. This is a balance sheet recession meaning simply that we have too much debt outstanding. Consumers are hesitant to extend their debt further with out confidence in their income, assets and job situation. For the Twist to work it needs to allow for meaningful refinancing to give the consumer air to breath.

LA Times Article Link

Great American Economic Lie

2011-09-20T09:11:00.002-04:00

The linked article below highlights the primary issue we "economically" are facing. Simply speaking, the past 30 years growth is a fallacy, we used debt to maintain our standard of living. Now debt is no longer in excess and/or unavailable; we are faced with paying the bill for the last 30 years. We can no longer push it down the road. Paying the bill will slow economic growth. "Real Growth" will occur after meeting our obligations and a return in savings.

Great American Lie Article Link

Roubini and El-Erian: Kick Out Greece to Save Euro

2011-09-19T16:48:00.002-04:00

El-Erian, CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO, says an exit from the joint currency bloc for Greece and possibly one or two other countries (likely Portugal and Ireland, though he does not specify) will make for a stronger eurozone with a currency better able to resist "policy mistakes and market accidents." Roubini is in the same camp.

I believe the two experts are very concerned that increased problems in Europe will have a dramatic negative impact on the US.

Source: Article Link

Inflation Since 2000

2011-09-16T09:40:00.000-04:00

Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/293977-inflation-a-five-month-x-ray-view