CPO Futures @ Bursa Malaysia Derivatives

CPO Futures Trades In Year 2026

2026-01-01T14:44:00.111+08:00

The 1 Year 1 Post on CPO Futures blog is continuing its 7th Edition Year. It is a diary of the FCPO ex-Local with 30+ years trading experience. Same words: TRADING IS A GAME OF SKILL & PERSONAL CHALLENGE. So, Please Don't Gamble & Over-trade !!

The Stop and Reverse (SAR) Trade Signals Given in Advance for FREE early viewing before opening trade at 9pm. They remain in theoretical prices only, and here are the yearly theoretical accumulated P&L for the past 6 years :

2020 @ +681 pts (or RM17,025.00 per lot, Profit) from 38 SARs
2021 @ +409 pts (or RM10,225.00 per lot, Profit) from 38 SARs
2022 @ +2905 pts (or RM72,625.00 per lot, Profit) from 24 SARs
2023 @ -213 pts (or -RM5,325.00 per lot, Loss) from 39 SARs
2024 @ +1065 pts (or RM26,625.00 per lot, Profit) from 26 SARs
2025 @ +271 pts (or RM6775.00 per lot, Profit) from 37 SARs
2026 @ ?? pts from ?? SARs (wait & see 😶 Profit or Loss ?)

Careful on Multiple Losing Trades (MLTs) and Capital Risk Ratio (CRR). They kill good traders! Do your own research too since it is just an ex-Local's diary!

SAR Buy@4072@26/12am and its P&L will be recorded here.

Sell 4018 -54 ~~if 4018 is traded on~~ 2/1am
Buy 4059 -41 ~~if 4059 is traded on~~ 8/1@T+1
Sell 3989 -70 ~~if 3989 is traded on~~ 15/1am
Buy 4065 -76 ~~if 4066 is traded on~~ 16/1am (**4004-4065= -61, note: 15/1)
Sell 4145 +80 ~~if 4145 is traded on~~ 10/2@T+1
Buy 4150 -5 ~~if 4147 is traded on~~ 20/2am
Sell 4068 -82 ~~if 4068 is traded on~~ 23/2am
Buy 4111 -43 ~~if 4111 is traded on~~ 24/2@T+1
Sell 4034 -77 ~~if 4034 is traded on~~ 25/2am
Buy 4084 -50 ~~if 4084 is traded on~~ 2/3am (HH@4833@31/3, 4918@1/4)
Sell 4618o +534 ~~if 4643 is traded on~~ 8/4am
Buy 4582o +36 ~~if 4569 is traded on~~ 21/4pm (**4638-4582= +36, note: 15/4,21/4)
Sell 4528 -54 ~~if 4528 is traded on~~ 28/4@T+1
Buy 4594 -66 ~~if 4594 is traded on~~ 30/4am
Sell 4524 -70 ~~if 4524 is traded on~~ 7/5am
Buy 4542 -18 ~~if 4542 is traded on~~ 15/5pm(**4524+16-4542= -2, note: 15/5,18/5)
Sell 4438 -103 ~~if 4438 is traded on~~ 25/5am
Buy 4531 -93 ~~if 4517 is traded on~~ 26/5am(note: 28/5)
Sell 4516 -15 ~~if 4516 is traded on~~ 9/6am
Buy 4563 -47 ~~if 4563 is traded on~~ 16/6pm (**4516+30-4563= -17, note: 15/6)
Sell 4530 -33 ~~if 4563 is traded on~~ 25/6am
Buy 4602 -72 ~~if 4602 is traded on~~ 8/7pm
Sell 4539 -63 ~~if 4539 is traded on~~ 10/7pm
Buy 4590 -51 ~~if 4590 is traded on~~ 14/7pm
Sell 4618 +28 ~~if 4618 is traded on~~ 3/8am (**4618-(4590+30) = -2,note: 15/7,3/8)
Buy 4664 -46 ~~if 4664 is traded on~~ 4/8am
Sell 4802 +138 ~~if 4802 is traded on~~ 28/8@T+1 (**4802-4764= +38, note: 15/8 )
Buy 4904 -102 ~~if 4904 is traded on~~ 28/8pm *intraday* (** note: 28/8)
Sell 4860 -44 ~~if 4860 is traded on~~ 11/9pm
Buy 4919nov(5039dec) **-59(-179) ~~if 4919 is traded on~~ 17/9am (note: 15/9,17/9)
Sell 4929dec -110 on 17/9pm *intraday* (note: 17/9**)
Buy 4659 +270 ~~if 4659 is traded on~~ 8/10am (note: 8/10)
Sell 4600 -59 ~~if 4600 is traded on~~ 16/10@T+1(note: 15/10, 15/10night)
Buy 4780Jan -180 (4717Dec -117) ~~if 4717 is traded on~~ 19/10am (note: 19/10)
Sell if 4703 is traded on 26/10
Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Buy

NOTES :

(** is indicating P&L after the rollover effect)

2/1: 1st SAR of the year on 1st trading day! SAR#1@4018 after opening 4019 gap down and FCPO went to low 3977 in AM session.

5/1: BMD announced FCPO night trading shorten by 30min from 9pm to 11pm effective as at 12/1.

8/1: SAR#2@4059 buy signal was hit on T+1. Losing 95pts in just 2 trades.

12/1: MPOB end stock Dec hit 3.05mt but FCPO up from 4020 low to 4100 high, close 4091.

15/1 SAR#3@3989 sell is hit. Rollover MarApr@-15 mean Short 3989Mar higher to 4004Apr. Yday news on B50 on indonesia remained at B40 biodiesel stopped high 4147 and killed the SAR#2@4059 Long.

16/1 SAR#4@4065 Long (not 4066 as shown earlier) got hit after opening with soyoil overnight up ~200pts on possible policy change on biofuels.

10/2: SAR#5@4145 hit on 9/2night or 10/2T+1 trading day. Gave up from high 4340@29/1 til today only turns selling. Nearly 200pts profit wiped off and realised 80pts only since turning buy SAR#4@4065@16/1am. MPOB data Jan end stock drop to 2.81mt from 3.05mt but still high, looking at prod drop to 1.58 from 1.83mt and good export at 1.48mt.

19/2: 2 days off CNY price opened jump and closed much higher low giving low 4008 before CNY, 4117, about 110pts.

20/2: 1030am Opening 4150 triggered SAR#6@4147 buy signal. It is a losing trade, off low 4008!

23/2: Hit SAR#7@4068 after AM open, biggest loss in 7 trades.

24/2: Hit SAR#8@4111 during T+1 session, how much accumulated loss now? >1 lot of margin! 7k.

26/2: Hit SAR#9@4034. 8 losing trades >400pts losses! Excl 1 profit trade.

2/3: Hit SAR#10@4084 ! Buying again! Due to US airstrike Iran

8/4: Hit SAR#11@4618 instead if 4643 due to opening gap at AM opening after US-Iran peace deal. Soyoil overnight 70s to 66s while FCPO 4800s to 4600s. Get ready to lose $$ again after making 500pts in a single trade!?

15/4: Rollover JuneJuly@-20 mean Short SAR#11@4618June is rolled to 4638July now.

21/4 Hit SAR#12@4582 after PM session open. Gave up 200pts ++ from low 4410 for SAR#11 Short@4618 and make only 30pts ++. So, now eye on SAR#12 Long 4582.

28/4: Hit SAR#13@4528 selling after 9pm, incurred a loss of 54pts. ZL kept going up >420 usd gap premium Vs FCPO. (~71.50, 4550, 3.95).

30/4: Hit SAR#14@4594 BUY after AM open. 2nd losing trade after 2 profit trades.

7/5: Hit SAR#15@4524 sell after AM open. The long only reached high 4715 and then flushed down to cut loss turn sell today.

15/5: Rollover JulAug@-16 push up the short to 4540.

18/5: Hit SAR#16@4542 after PM open, Went lowest 4370 and turned buy 4542 is another painful trade signal!

25/5: Hit SAR#17@4438 (AM). Loss 103pts, 5th MLTs total loss >300pts ! Eye on SAR#17 Short after US Iran peace deal 60 days, crude oil 90s -6 while US some mkt close on 25/5.

28/5: Hit buy SAR#18@4531 instead of 4517 (AM) opening. 6th MLTs >400pts !!!

9/6: Hit sell SAR#19@4516. Total 7 MLTs now, losing 420pts ! Total 19 SARs, ~300pts accumulated losses though there was a good profit when SAR#11 was hit.

15/6: Rollover AugSep@-30 push up short Aug@4516 to Sep@4546.

16/6: Hit buy SAR#20@4563, 8th MLTs !

25/6: Hit sell SAR#21@4530 instead of 4563 at AM opening. 9th MLTs !

Q1 = -53-40-70-76+80-5-82-43-77-50 = -416

Q2 = +534+36-54-66-70-18-104-93-15-46-32 = +72

30/6: Q1+Q2 = -344. Taken from a worksheet to compare the above SAR#1 to SAR#21. 6 months still in a loss (even more losses if not a good profit trade of 534pts)

8/7: Hit buy SAR#22@4602. 10th MLTs !!!

10/7: Hit sell SAR#23@4539 11st MLTs after MPOB data end stock June reached 2.544mt from 2.42mt

14/7: Hit SAR#24@4590. TOTAL 12 SAR trade signals now.

15/7: Rollover SepOct@-30 based on closing price at 6pm for easy reference though it cannot be done as calling -33 Vs -32. SAR#24@4590Sep raise to 4620Oct.

3/8: Hit SAR#25@4618 after opening 4623. In theory profit, in Real LOSS 2pts due to rollover higher. The SAR#24@4590 had theoretically reached 4786 high before coming down to hit SAR#25

4/8: HIt SAR#26@4664 buy signal! 14 MLTs, ~734pts of losses! Breaking 6 years records !? Can you survive if CRR is low ? Margin 8000, Loss >18000. If 5x CRR@40k, 50% drawdown. If 2x CRR, Die Die Die !!

15/8: Rollover OctNov@90s from 4664 to 4764 assuming 100pts is really painful for the SAR#26 Long if looking back early August spread at 30s only.

27/8: Finally Hit SAR#27@4802 at night. Gave up high 5031 to turn sell 4802 is mainly due to Soyoil from high 71 to 66 !

28/8: **Due to soyoil dec "wild" rebound from 66 to 70 overnight, a SAR must in place in intraday.

28/8: **Hit SAR#28@4904 buy signal "intraday". Worst trades ever recorded in so many years as off high 5031 to sell 4802 already affected SAR#26 Long@4664 that rollover to 4764, meaning real profit only 38pt. Then, SAR#27 Short@4802 hit a loss 102pt when SAR#28 buy signal is hit. So, August month is another losing month.

11/9: Hit SAR#29@4860 sell signal. After seeing high 5022, SAR#28@4904 Long failed to continue uptrend since 28/8 the intraday reverse trade that rare to happen and finally turn sell 4860 with a loss. If no intraday reverse trade, the Long 4664 with rollover to 4764 would have generate a profit 96pts without facing the loss of 102pts when SAR#28 was hit.

15/9: NO rollover since NovDec@-115 spread that so huge will trigger SAR#30@4919 buy signal once mkt open at 1030am on 17/9 after Malaysia Day public holiday. The Gap 115pts will be big and incur huge losing trade in theory even if mkt open unchange. This kind of error always give a wrong SAR trade signal that historically make back testing give wrong entry exit price and wrong P&L.

17/9**: Hit SAR#30@4919Nov(5039Dec, assuming rollover spread NovDec@-120), Like it or not, this has changed the whole picture of technical indicators if just following change of new contract month on continuous 3rd active month chart from Nov to Dec. That's the reason having a bracket on SAR#30 to indicate the 2 different prices for future reference when needed. 120pts Gap is too huge. If Take 4919, artificially huge floating profit after the Long, but if take 5039, artificially huge loss against SAR#29 Short@4860. However, P&L not much different, the big difference will be technical indicators that all artificially being tilted to wrong data & signals !!!

17/9**: Hit SAR#31@4929dec intraday !! Huge loss from Long 5039dec !!! Horrible intraday 2 SAR trade signal in one day that probably never recorded in my system. This has even hard to do due to change of new contract on continous 3rd active month chart that make huge gap up and has mathematically made the calculation of technical indicators formulas totally wrong. This will therefore depend trader's own judgement in following his/her own experience. In history, few FCPO technical traders was totally wiped out all because of these price swing that affected their decision to trade.

Q3 = -72-63-51+28-46+138-102-44-59(or-179 !)-110 = -381 (or -501 ! in theory)

8/10: Hit SAR#32@4659 at around 11am+, buying fierce from low 4501 last night to high 4661 before 1115am and triggered buy signal. From low 4491, giving up big profit turning buy now. Soyoil overnigh drop 200pts but FCPO up >130pts from 4524 close when did the writitng here. Sure having big news later !?

12/10: MPOB Sep end stock reached 3.5 mil mt that is record high, but, FCPO 4680/4608 day range! GAPKI Aug end stock 2.2 mil mt down 500k mt from Jul !

15/10: Rollover DecJan@-100 will be another problem for indicators. But, this is just a theory, just follow for consistency for easy tracking while self decision will not be written here. Say last 4630 and SAR#32 sell signal@4599, the ~30pts different of SAR will change to 130pts due to change of contract month if everything remain the same.

15/10night: Another unseen SAR that never happened on change of contract month day since last time no T+1 on FCPO. Taking a step on T+1 without change of contract month and thus the FCPO hit SAR#33 sell signal. If not, there will be no SAR being hit tonight since rollover DecJan@-100 making Jan so high far away from the SAR#33 sell signal@4600. Fundamental of the possibility end stock of Oct may reach 4.0mil mt when next MPOB data out in Nov!? Highly possible !? Be prepared for much volatile market in coming months since haze with El Nino is probably the worst in history since FCPO futures trading started but focus is still on technical trend indicators, avoiding fundamentals affect the above SAR trade signal decision.

19/10: Hit SAR#34@4780 opening "artificially"! The SAR#34 buy signal is 4717 Dec not Jan, but, due to wide rollover spread about -100, it has triggered buy signal SAR#34@4780. Just to follow for consistency in technical indicators reading as a whole for future reference. The Dec 4717 finally was traded around 11am for SAR#34 actual loss 117pts not 180pts.

Q4 = +270-59-180

CPO Futures Trades In Year 2025

2024-12-31T10:38:00.328+08:00

The CPO Futures blog is continuing its 6th edition year on 1 Year 1 Post. It is basically a FCPO trader's diary of 30 years trading experience. Remember: The underlying priciple here is that TRADING IS A GAME OF SKILL & PERSONAL CHALLENGE. So, please don't gamble & over-trade !

NO Strings Attached. At best I can, the early Stop and Reverse (SAR) trade signals Always Out in Advance for FREE viewing before FCPO is opened for trading, and the SAR trade signals remain in theoretical prices. Click HERE to buy the very old book that was written 20+ years ago.

The yearly theoretical accumulated P&L for the past 5 years :

2020 @ 681 pts (or RM17,025.00 per lot, Profit) from 38 SARs
2021 @ 409 pts (or RM10,225.00 per lot, Profit) from 38 SARs
2022 @ 2905 pts (or RM72,625.00 per lot, Profit) from 24 SARs
2023 @ -213 pts (or -RM5,325.00 per lot, Loss) from 39 SARs
2024 @ 1065 pts (or RM26,625.00 per lot, Profit) from 26 SARs
2025 @ +271 pts (or RM6775.00 /lot, Profit) from 37 SARs

Eye on Multiple Losing Trades (MLTs) and Capital Risk Ratio (CRR). They kill good traders! Do your own research too since it is just a trader's diary!

SAR Sell@4951 (10/12/2024) and its P&L will be recorded here. (The SAR#26 Short@4951@10/12@rollover@4851@13/12 is brought forward.)

Buy 4531 +420 ~~if 4531 is traded on~~ 13/1/25 (**4851-4531= +320, note:13/12/24, 13/1)
Sell 4442 -89 ~~if 4442 is traded on~~ 14/1
Buy 4316 +126 ~~if 4316 is traded on~~ 31/1 (**4342-4316= +16, note:15/1,31/1)
Sell 4536 +220 ~~if 4536 is traded on~~ 27/2 (**4524-4216= +308, note 14/2,27/2)
Buy 4562 -26 ~~if 4562 is traded on~~ 7/3
Sell 4442 -120 ~~if 4442 is traded on~~ 17/3 (**4442-4462= -20, note 14/3,17/3)
Buy 4398 +44 ~~if 4398 is traded on~~ 28/3
Sell 4376 -22 ~~if 4376 is traded on~~ 4/4
Buy 4146 +230 ~~if 4146 is traded on~~ 25/4 (**4316-4146= +170, note 18/4,25/4)
Sell 4026 -120 ~~if 4026 is traded on~~ 28/4
Buy 3953 +73 ~~if 3953 is traded on~~ 14/5 (read note 14/5)
Sell 3854 -99 ~~if 3854 is traded on~~ 15/5
Buy 3915 -61 ~~if 3915 is traded on~~ 20/5
Sell 3858 -57 ~~if 3858 is traded on~~ 22/5
Buy 3902 -44 ~~if 3902 is traded on~~ 28/5
Sell 3885 -17 ~~if 3885 is traded on~~ 10/6
Buy 3933 -48 ~~if 3933 is traded on~~ 13/6
Sell 4003 +70 ~~if 4003 is traded on~~ 24/6
Buy 4024 -21 ~~if 4024 is traded on~~ 2/7
Sell 4219 +195 ~~if 4219 is traded on~~ 1/8 T+1(** 4219-4044= +175, note:15/7,1/8)
Buy 4255 -36 ~~if 4255 is traded on~~ 5/8
Sell 4400 +145 ~~if 4400 is traded on~~ 29/8 (** 4400-4290= +110, note: 15/8,29/8)
Buy 4475 -75 ~~if 4475 is traded on~~ 2/9
Sell 4445 -30 ~~if 4445 is traded on~~ 10/9@T+1
Buy 4543 -98 ~~if 4515 is traded on~~ 17/9 (** 4470-4543= -73. note: 12/9, 17/9)
Sell 4424 -119 ~~if 4424 is traded on~~ 18/9
Buy 4461 -37 ~~if 4461 is traded~~ on 2/10
Sell 4410 -51 ~~if 4409 is traded~~ on 6/10am
Buy 4470 -60 ~~if 4470 is traded on~~ 7/10pm
Sell 4436 -34 ~~if 4436 is traded on~~ 15/10am
Buy o4516 -80 ~~if 4501 is traded on~~ 16/10@T+1 (**Note: 15-16/10)
Sell 4449 -67 ~~if 4449 is traded on~~ 22/10pm
Buy 4199 +250 ~~if 4199 is traded on~~ 18/11pm (**4474-4199= +275. Note 14/11)
Sell 4145 -54 ~~if 4145 is traded on~~ 20/11pm
Buy 4193 -48 ~~if 4194~~ ~~4149~~ ~~is traded~~ on ~~2/12pm~~ 3/12am
Sell 4141 -52 ~~if 4141 is traded on~~ 4/12@T+1
Buy 4072 +69 ~~if 4072 is traded on~~ 26/12am (note:15/12, 26/12)
End of Year 2025

NOTES :

(** is indicating P&L after the rollover effect)

6/1: Last 2 trading days had prices below 4300, lowest 4280. New year will start with a good profit being carried forward from last year December.

13/1: 1st SAR is triggered. off low 4225 (9/1), giving up huge floating profit thanks to ZL jumped on Friday night that >10% in few days only from 40s to 45s

14/1: SAR#2@4442 is hit at 5pm+. It is 2nd SAR in just 2 days ! A losing trade.

15/1: Rollover@spread100 for easy remember, 4442mar>4342apr

31/1: SAR#3@4316 is hit though is not updated in advance. But, FCPO hit lower to 4258 when SAR is updated. In theory, 126pts profit, actual fact +16 due to rollover, hardwork of 2 weeks only get 16pts of gross profit for this round of trend is stressful for traders ! Off low 4106 turned buy 4316, can traders take it?

14/2: **Rollover AprMay@100 for SAR#3@4316 will be at 4216 is assumed to be taken for easy remember since SAR#4 sell signal is hard to be hit today. April high 4704 is adjusted to May high 4611, so the Long 4216 seeing high 4611 in theory that almost hit 400pts profit mark.

27/2: Open4524 below the SAR#4@4536 and thus the Selling prices with P&L looks different in theory vs actual as shown in the bracket. Keep the theory for easy record while actual prices should always be remembered so that can track down the real P&L whenever needed.

7/3: SAR#5@4562 is hit. Off low 4327 ! Loss is -38 instead of -26 based on actual price 4524 at opening 27/2. Painful trade !

14/3: Rollover MayJune@100 for SAR#5@4562 to 4462 at opening is easy to remember for computation of P&L if needed.

17/3: SAR#6@4442 is hit ! Due to Change of Month 100pts gap, We got a new SAR after 1 hour FCPO opening for trading in the AM session. Loss 120pts in theory (20pts due to rollover, NOT hit SAR yet in actual fact). Eye on new SAR trade signal after 6pm since it is based on theoretical prices.

28/3: SAR#7@4398 is hit. Gave up low 4230 from SAR#6@4442 Short was 200pts++ but only 44pts realised profit.

Q1 = 7 SARs = +420-89+126+220-26-120+44 = +575

4/4: SAR#8@4376 it hit @3/4night as T+1. SAR#7 Long reached 4544 high and tumbled to hit SAR#8 sell, a painful losing trade.

18/4: Rollover JuneJuly@60 for SAR#8@4376 to 4316 on 15/4. Late update.

25/4: SAR#9@4146 is hit after opening 1030am. Gave up huge floating profit from low 3863 to turn LONG. It real profit only 170pts instead of 230pts in theory.

28/4: SAR#10@4026 is hit after 1030am opened 4030. It is a painful day from SAR#9 to SAR#10 in just 1 trading day. Friday high 4150 and Monday open 4030 then flushed down to <4000!

14/5: SAR#11@3953 buy at opening (actual 3976) is a very painful trade after giving up so much off floating profit from low 3696 ! Over 250pts gave away !! 3976 gap opening even extra 23pts from 3953 theoretical price.

15/5: SAR#12@3854 is hit after 5pm. Assume: Rollover@10, SAR#12@3854 will be 3844 for FCPO August new contract month.

20/5: SAR#13@3915 was hit at night (T+1). 2nd losing trade in May.

22/5 SAR#14@3858 is hit at 1030am opening. 3rd losing trade.

28/5: SAR#15@3902 hit at PM session. 4th losing trade.

10/6: SAR#16@3885 sell at PM session after MPOB, 5th losing trade in a row.

13/6: SAR#17@3933 buy at AM session, News on Israel airstrike Iran. FCPO lowest 3810 after SAR#16@3885 short finally hit another loss. 6th losing trade.

24/6: SAR#18@4003 generated 70pts profit for SAR#17 Long but off high 4144, giving up ~140pts floating profit after Trump's news on Israel-Iran ceasefire. Crude oil 78 to 64 in 24hrs !

Q2 = 11 SARs = -22+230-120+73-99-61-57-44-17-48+70 = -95

2/7: SAR#19@4024 is hit. Lowest 3947 for the SAR#18 Short but turned to be a losing trade.

15/7: RolloverSepOct@-20 meaning SAR#19@4024sep to 4044oct now, higher price.

1/8: SAR#20@4219 was hit during T+1, 31/7@1045pm++, will still under August P&L. 195pts in thoery, 175pts in actual profit due to rollover. Off high 4374 before turning sell 4219.

5/8: SAR#21@4255 hit, losing trade for the short.

15/8: Rollover on spread OctNov@-35 moved SAR#21 Long@4255 to 4290 now higher.

29/8: SAR#22@4400 is hit AM session. It is a profit trade for SAR#21 Long. Profit +145pts in thoery but +110 only in actual fact due to rollover higher price on 15/8.

2/9: SAR#23@4475 is hit PM session. hardwork of 1 month, one slap in 1 trading day!

10/9: SAR#24@4445 hit during T+1. 2nd losing trade after one good round. Off high 4509 then came down at night triggering it.

12/9: Rollover on spread NovDec@-25 moved SAR#24@4445 to 4475. Assume -25 is traded since it is easily to get -28.

17/9: SAR#25@4543 opening price. Gap up 34pts from SAR@2509. Extra loss?!

18/9: SAR#26@4424 traded few minutes after opening 1030am. It is the 2nd worst trade of the year in theory. MLT - 4th losing trade in Sept.

Q3 = 8 SARs = -21+195-36+145-75-30-98-119 = -39

2/10: A new Journey for me! After 30+ years, it is time to focus from DR, TP, DLH to CMR. Personal Events! SAR#26 Short @ 4424 did go down to 4269 for 155pts profit while attempting many times higher than 4424 to high 4479 that nearly hit 4482 SAR on 22/9. But, not finally SAR#27@4461 is hit, a 5th losing trade in a row. Is it the bull trend 📈?

6/10: SAR#28@4409 had instead hit at 4410 due to system calculation.

7/10: SAR#29@4470 hit ! 7th losing trades. How bad will it be?

15/10: SAR#30@4436 sell - 8th losing trade! Gave up high 4612 almost 180pts! Fr profit to loss again.

16/10: New contract month (JAN) artificially hit SAR#31@3501 (DEC before rollover) at opening 9pm (15/10) @ 4516. In theory, It is a LONG@4516(JAN)@SAR#31 now, but, actual fact, SHORT@4436(DEC)@SAR#30 is holding on. However, for consistency on the blog, stay with the theory and it is SAR#31 at LONG at opening 4516. Then, update on SAR#32 sell signal onwards.

22/10: SAR#32@4449 is hit with another losing trade. 10 MLTs >600pts accumulated losses since SAR#23 on 3/9!! Can survive !?

14/11: Rollover JanFebQ-25, meaning SAR#32 Short higher from 4449 to 4474

18/11: SAR#33@4199 is traded after 230pm opening.

20/11: SAR#34@4145 is hit. 1 month profit ~250, 2 days lost ~50. From high 4272 to 4145 in 2 days. Painful trade.

2/12: unforeseen condition SAR#35@4149 buy signal is not triggered though high 4150 traded in the pm session on 2/12 after seeing low 4062.

3/12: SAR#35@4193 is triggered before 1230pm close. 3 times SAR being change due to unforeseen formulation.

4/12: Hit SAR#36@4141 in less than 12hours ! it is T+1 session, meaning traded on 3/12 night time.

12/12: looking back MPOB end stock Nov2025 2.83mt Vs Oct2015@2.83mt, 10 years gap. Will there be a fear of FCPO flushing down soon!? Will history repeat, always!?

15/12: consider rollover same price though few points better, for easy reference only.

26/12: SAR#37@4072 is hit after seeing low 3893 on 19/12, giving up huge floating profit for SAR#36@4141 Short.

31/12 : End note with accumulated P&L :

Q4 = 11 SARs = -37-51-60-40-80-67+250-54-48-52+69 = -170

YEAR 2025 = Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 = +575-95-39-170 = +271

CPO Futures Trades In Year 2024

2024-01-01T07:58:00.308+08:00

The ONE YEAR ONE POST on the CPO Futures blog starts its 5th year. A trader's diary of ~30 years trading experience.

NO Strings Attached... The below SAR trade signals Always Out in Advance for FREE viewing. They are early Stop and Reverse (SAR) trade signals before opening market at best I can.

As shown in previous posts too, the theoretical accumulated P&L for the past 4 years :

2020 @ 681 pts (or RM17,025.00 per lot, Profit) from 38 SARs
2021 @ 409 pts (or RM10,225.00 per lot, Profit) from 38 SARs too.
2022 @ 2905 pts (or RM72,625.00 per lot, Profit) from 24 SARs
2023 @ -213 pts (or -RM5,325.00 per lot, Loss) from 39 SARs
2024 @ 1065 pts. (or RM26,625.00 per lot, Profit) from 26 SARs

Eye on Multiple Losing Trades (MLTs) and Capital Risk Ratio (CRR) as they can definitely wipe out good traders! Do your own research too since it is just a trader's diary!

Take Note: The SAR trade signals remain in theoretical prices (read Notes for more updates).

SAR Sell@3748 (27/12/2022night) and its P&L will be recorded here.

Buy 3742 +6 ~~if 3742 is traded on 8/1n or~~ 9/1d
Sell 3834 +92 ~~if 3834 is traded on 29/1n or~~ 30/1d (**3834-3722=112)
Buy 3850 -16 ~~if 3850 is traded on 5/2n or~~ 6/2d
Sell o3826 -24 on 15/2n ~~if 3801 is traded on 13/2d~~
Buy 3879 -53 ~~if 3879 is traded on~~ 19/2d
Sell 3836 -43 ~~if 3836 is traded on 20/2n or~~ 21/2d
Buy o3890 -54 ~~if 3889 is traded on 26/2n or~~ 27/2d
Sell 4195 +305 ~~if 4195 is traded on 26/3n or~~ 27/3 (**4195-3827=368, Note:15/3,27/3)
Buy 4251 -56 ~~if 4251 is traded on~~ 1/4d
Sell 4255 +4 ~~if 4255 is traded on~~ 12/4d
Buy 3931 +324 ~~if 3931 is traded on~~ 21/5 (**4187-4931= 256, note:15/4,14-15/5,20/5)
Sell 3903 -28 ~~if 3903 is traded on~~ 18/6 (** 3903-3913= -8, note: 14/6)
Buy 3958 -55 ~~if 3958 is traded on~~ 20/6
Sell 3892 -66 ~~if 3892 is traded on~~ 21/6
Buy o3969 -77 ~~if 3936 is traded on~~ 1/7
Sell 3949 -20 ~~if 3949 is traded on~~ 9/7
Buy 3977 -28 ~~if 3977 is traded on~~ 22/7 (** 3925-3977= -52, note: 15/7, 22/7)
Sell o3915 -62 ~~if 3921 is traded on~~ 24/7 (230pm opened 3915)
Buy 3966 -51 ~~if 3966 is traded on~~ 26/7
Sell o3876 -90 ~~if 3904 is traded on~~ 29/7
Buy 3813 +63 ~~if 3813 is traded on~~ 22/8 (** 3821-3813= +8 , note:15/8,22/8)
Sell 3816 +3 ~~if 3816 is traded on~~ 13/9 (** 3786-3858= -72, note:13/9,19/9)
Buy 3858 -42 ~~if 3858 is traded on~~ 18/9n
Sell 4813 +955 ~~if 4813 is traded on~~ 19/11 (** 4813-3798 = 1015, note: 15/10, 15/11, TargetHit@25/10 )
Buy 4843 -30 ~~if 4843 is traded on~~ 28/11 (hit@27/11n)
Sell 4951 +108 ~~if 4951 is traded on~~ 10/12
Buy if 4779 is traded on 31/12 (**4851-?=?, note:13/12) READ NOTE 31/12**

NOTES :

2/1: Trading Day 1 starts today with SAR Short@3748 being carried forward that was initiated last week as shown above. 52-53 weeks to go from now with expectation of < 40 SAR trade signals.

9/1: SAR#1@3742 Long now. Off the low 3607, SAR Short@3748 gave up big floating profit.

15/1: **Rollover MacApr@spread 20, SAR#1@3742 lower to 3722.

30/1: SAR#2@3834 Short now. Off the high 4036 3 days ago, SAR#2 sell signal is triggered at 3834 around 330pm. A painful profit by giving up floating profit range from high 4036 to 3834.

6/2: SAR#3@3850 Long now. From the low 3745, SAR#2@3834 Short failed to generate profit.

15/2: SAR#4@3826 opening. Due to change of month at 9pm triggered SAR sell signal 3836 which is not opening price. So, take 10pts lower at open3826. It is actually a profit with 3877-3850=27pts not -24pts since April contract open 3877. Spread April May @ 51 opening trade.

19/2: SAR#5@3879 Long is generated, 3 losing trades in a row, almost wipe out all the profit already.

21/2: SAR#6@3836 is the 4th losing trade in a row after being hit. It is another MLTs with hitting high 3914 before flushing down to hit 3836.

27/2: SAR#7@3889 done at opening 3890 at 1030am. It is the 5th losing trade all happened in Feb.

15/3: **Rollover MayJune@spread 63, SAR#7@3890 lower to 3827.

27/3: SAR#8@4195 is hit, generating 305pts theoretical profit, 368pts based on rollover. SAR#7 Long@3890 reached high 4370 (FCPOK24) or 4314 (FCPOM24, rollover).

1/4: Q1 = +6+92-16-24-53-43-54+305 = +213

1/4: SAR#9@4251 is Long now. A loss is generated on the 1st day of April !

12/4: SAR#10@4255 Short now, generating only 4pts after seeing high 4443. MPOB friday today after Raya 2 days off.

15/4: **Rollover JuneJuly@spread 65 means SAR#10@4255 June lower to 4190 July now.

14/5: Stop showing "n" and "d" on the SAR early trade signals after today to ease update workload. Will only indicate n/d on the side of the SAR's date once it is hit.

15/5: ** rollover JulyAugust@spread@3 mean SAR@4190 to 4187 now lower 2nd tine since 12/4.

20/5: SAR#11@3931 is hit at 20/5night with good "theoretical" profit ! But, 2 rollovers reduced profit from 324 to 256pts only

14/6: ** Rollover AugSep@spread 18 mean SAR#11@3931 Aug lower to 3913 Sep now.

18/6: SAR#12@3903 is hit after (due to) rollover. Stick to theory, this is a loss of 28pts, actual loss 8pts.

20/6: SAR#13@3958 is hit. Loss 55pts in just 2 trading days!

21/6: SAR#14@3892 ! Seeing 3rd losing trade in 1 week !

28/6: Q2 = -56+4+324-28-55-66 = +123

1/7: SAR#15@3969 instead of 3936 due to the Opening Gap Up.

9/7: SAR#16@3949 is hit. From high4122, gave up173pts turned to a loss 20pts (in theory)

15/7: **Rollover SepOct@spread 24 means SAR#16@3949 lower to 3925.

22/7: SAR#17@3977 is hit. Actual loss 52pts NOT 28pts due to Rollover.

24/7: SAR#18@3915 instead of 3921 since 230pm opened 3915. 7th losing trade !!

26/7: Hit SAR#19@3966 and this is 8th SAR losing trade in a row.

29/7: Hit SAR#20@3904 BUT actual 3876 at opening. So, SAR#20@3876. Biggest loss in 7 months.

15/8: **Rollover OctNov@spread 55, so, o3876 lower to 3821 for SAR#20

20/8: USDMYR 4.36s strongest level YTD. DCE JAN25 soyoil 7400 vs Palm Olein 7600. While, BMD FCPO Dec24 3700 vs CME Soyoil 39.00

21/8: Without rollover, FCPO Oct 3821 already hit SAR#21, but, now still waiting at >3800 for FCPO Nov.

22/8: SAR#21@3813 is hit. +63pts in theory, +8pts only in actual term.

13/9: SAR#22@3816 sell signal is hit. Gave up big profit from high 4003 since SAR#21@3813 Long. Consider rollover NovDec@spread 30 mean SAR#22@3786 Dec from 3916 Nov.

19/9: SAR#23@3858 traded 18/9 night. In thoery, -42, actual -72, due to rollover lower.

30/9: Q3 = -77-20-28-62-51-90+63+3-42 = -304

30/9: July-Sep incurred actual loss > 304pts in theory (see the above ** symbols)

15/10: ** Rollover DecJan@spread 25, so SAR#23@3858 lower to 3833

25/10: MISSON IMPOSSIBLE Target 800pts hit at yday night. Be it in theory or after rollover, it is mission accomplished after seeing nothng in 2 years. Positions basically is "out" and off for this year ! Time to wait and see only... what will the year end performance be? More profit or a losing year again!? Reached high 4660, the trend hit 827pts after the rollover to price 3833. So, it is a long holiday for this year alrady while waiting to prepare for next year's job ! Keep updating SAR trading signal until year end and see what is the P&L for this year, be it in theory or actual fact !!

11/11: 5202 year high

15/11: ** Rollover JanFeb@spread 35, so, SAR#23@3833 lower to 3798. The FCPO last traded 5036.

19/11: SAR#24@4813 was traded 18/11 night. Mkt then went up to 5007 from low 4804. Closed 4922. Volatile.

25/11: Not really monitoring market closely for the last whole week and FCPO did hit low 4626 after SAR#24@4813 was hit on 18/11 night. This year already "Mission Accomplished" while keeping notes for year end closing data and preparing next year position that possible happen in December next month. If it is traded, carried forward positions and P&L will only probably be recorded next year. So, just be ready for another new positions that may be hit in December, be it a losing trade or profit trade.

28/11: SAR#25@4843 was hit on 27/11night. The SAR#24 short went low 4626 and became a losing trade.

10/12: SAR#26@4951 was hit after MPOB today. Gave up high 5179 with >300pts profit at one time.

13/12: **Rollover FebMac@spread 100, so SAR#26@4951 lower to 4851.

31/12: Last trading day. Q4 = +955-30+108 = +1033.The theoretical accumulated P&L for year 2024 is bascially realised in Q4 ?. The SAR#26 Short@4951@10/12@rollover@4851@13/12 will be brought forward to next year.

CPO Futures Trade Signals For Year 2023

2022-12-30T10:18:00.345+08:00

Started CPO Futures blog >12 years ago and now the ONE YEAR ONE POST in the CPO Futures blog is like a dairy for me to post early Stop and Reverse (SAR) trade signals before opening market (unless there is any unforeseen circumstances). The SAR trade signals always out in advance for readers traders to view like what I had done all this while.

The theoretical yearly accumulated gross profit for the past 3 years :

2020 @ 681 pts (or RM17,025.00 per lot) from 38 SARs
2021 @ 409 pts (or RM10,225.00 per lot) from 38 SARs too.
2022 @ 2905 pts (or RM72,625.00 per lot) from 24 SARs
2023 @ -213 pts! (Loss: RM5,325 per lot, 39 SARs)

Remember the Multiple Losing Trades (MLTs) and Capital Risk Ratio (CRR) that can definitely wipe out good traders! Do your own research too since here is just a diary that records my experience! The SAR trade signals will still be in theoretical prices (but it will be written in the Notes as real as possible that tradable for this year, not just a theory! Especially at those opening session with gaps).

SAR Buy@4005 (27/12/2022day) is brought forward and its P&L will be recorded here.

Sell 4025 +20 ~~if 4025 is traded on 5/1night or~~ 9/1day
Buy o3946 +79 ~~if 3941 is traded on 26/1night or~~ 30/1day (**4035-3946>> +89)
Sell 3871 -75 ~~if 3871 is traded on 30/1n or~~ 31/1d
Buy 3906 -35 ~~if 3906 is traded on~~ 7/2d
Sell 4118 +212 ~~if 4118 is traded on 7/3n or~~ 8/3d (**4118-3911>> +207)
Buy 4228 -110 ~~if 4228 is traded on 8/3n or~~ 9/3d
Sell 4122 -106 ~~if 4122 is traded on 9/3n or~~ 10/3d
Buy o3869 +253 ~~if 3822 is traded on~~ 3/4d (**4072-3869>> +203)
Sell o3765 -104 ~~if 3766 is traded on~~ 10/4d
Buy 3890 -125 ~~if 3890 is traded on 10/4n or~~ 11/4d
Sell 3786 -104 ~~if 3786 is traded on 11/4n or~~ 12/4d
Buy 3811 -25 ~~if 3811 is traded~~ on 18/4n ~~or 19/4d~~ (**3648-3811 >> -163)
Sell 3711 -100 ~~if 3711 is traded on 19/4n or~~ 20/4d
Buy 3689 +22 ~~if 3689 is traded on~~ 8/5d
Sell 3600 -89 ~~if 3600 is traded on 10/5n or~~ 11/5d
Buy 3489 +111 ~~if 3489 is traded on 24/5n or~~ 25/5d (**3489-3489 >> Zero)
Sell 3419 -70 ~~if 3419 is traded on 29/5n or~~ 30/5d
Buy 3399 +20 ~~if 3399 is traded on 8/6n or~~ 9/6d
Sell 3914 +515 ~~if 3914 is traded on~~ 31/7d (**3914-3399 >> +515. Rollover 15/6 &14/7)
Buy 3855 +59 ~~if 3855 is traded on 15/8n or~~ 16/8d (**3936-3855 >> +81)
Sell 3828 -27 ~~if 3828 is traded on~~ 22/8n ~~or 23/8d~~
Buy 3920 -92 ~~if 3920 is traded on 23/8n or~~ 24/8d
Sell 3894 -26 ~~if 3894 is traded on 5/9n or~~ 6/9d
Buy 3775 +119 ~~if 3775 is traded on 26/9n or~~ 27/9d (**3894(+45)-3775 >> +164. Rollover 15/9)
Sell 3693 -82 ~~if 3693 is traded on~~ 2/10d
Buy 3699 -6 ~~if 3699 is traded on 12/10n or~~ 13/10d
Sell o3695 -4 ~~if 3700 is traded on 23/10n or~~ 24/10d (**3695-(3699+22)>> +18. Rollover@13/10)
Buy 3754 -59 ~~if 3754 is traded on 25/10n or~~ 26/10d
Sell 3688 - 66 ~~if 3688 is traded on 30/10n or~~ 31/10d
Buy 3753 -65 ~~if 3753 is traded on 1/11n or~~ 2/11d
Sell 3718 -35 ~~if 3718 is traded on 6/11n or~~ 7/11d
Buy 3794 -76 ~~if 3794 is traded on 9/11n or~~ 10/11d
Sell 3850 +56 ~~if 3850 is traded on~~ 27/11d (**3850-(3794+42)>>+14.Rollover@15/11)
Buy o3925 -75 ~~if 3920 is traded on 27/11n or~~ 28/11d
Sell 3853 -72 ~~if 3853 is traded on 28/11n or~~ 29/11d
Buy 3776 +77 ~~if 3776 is traded~~ on 18/12n (**3853(+20)-3776 >> 97, rollover@15/12)
Sell 3734 -42 (21/12d)~~if 3734 is traded on 19/12n or 20/12d~~
Buy 3784 -50 ~~if 3784 is traded on~~ 26/12n or ~~27/12d~~
Sell 3748 -36 ~~if 3748 is traded on~~ 27/12n ~~or 28/12d~~

Notes:

3/1: Open 4146, high 4276. Floating profit >250 ticks. What will be the first SAR trade and when?

9/1: 1st SAR of the year. Gave up high 4276 turned selling 4025.

13/1: **spread -10, so, rollover short 4025 to 4035.

30/1: 2nd SAR hit at open 3946. SAR is 3941 but since o3946 is the opening price, put real SAR 3946 is better than just giving theoretical SAR 3941. Gave up lowest price 3721 @ 25/1.

31/1: 3rd SAR with a losing trade. (Jan +20+79-75= +24)

7/2: 4th SAR is the 2nd losing trade. Off the low 3728 since the short 3871.

15/2: **spread -5, so, rollover long 3906 to 3911. (Feb -35)

8/3: 5th SAR@4118, off high 4425. 3 VVIPs at POC2023 give talk today. USDMYR4.51 from 4.47 overnight.

9/3: 6th SAR @ 4228. 1 month profit 1 day half gone! The 5th SAR short reached low 4109 only.

10/3 7th SAR @ 4122. 1 month profit 2 day GONE !

15/3: **Spread MayJune +50, so, rollover short 4122 to 4072 for SAR no.7.

31/3: Q1 = +20+79-75-35+212-110-106 = -15. It is the Theoretical Loss for 1st Quarter. The SAR no.7 position will have its profit recorded in Q2 already since FCPO not hit SAR@3825@31/3. FCPO reached 3805 only. If SAR@3825 is hit, Q1 will have profit! (Mar +212-110-106= -4)

3/4: SAR no.8 hit 3869 at open instead of 3822 theoretical price and rollover lowered real profit too by 50pts. Off low 3500 (24/3), meaning gave up >50% floating profit. So, it is a painful trade even though it still generates profit.

10/4: 9th SAR @ 3765. Look at theoretical prices 3766 and 3822 (SAR no.8) which both can artificially inflate profits if blindly do backtesting without knowing such errors.

11/4: 10th SAR @ 3890. 3 trading weeks hard earned profit 2 days gone!

12/4: 11th SAR @ 3786. 3 losing trades in a row!

14/4: **Spread +115 to +138 in a day. Rollover June to July is costly for sell SAR#11 by 138 at close. (Price from 3786 to 3648)

18/4: If no change of month, SAR no.12 would have probably being triggered below 3850 (June contract) today which have a low price at 3783 before shooting up to above 3950. But, theoretically, it is still holding short and missing by 1 point because high 3810 vs 3811 for SAR no.12 buy signal today.

18/4*: SAR#12@3811 July is triggered at last seconds before 1130pm close. Loss 25pts in theory but Actual loss 163pts July or 64pts June if no change of contract on 17/4 onwards..

20/4: SAR#13@3711 - MLTs - a day before RAYA off! (Apr +253-104-125-104-25-100= -205)

8/5: SAR#14@3689 is hit at the PM session, a super painful trade seeing from low 3288! Gave up 401pts turned long 3689 !

11/5: SAR#15@3600 is hit at PM session, we saw the SAR#14@3689 went up high 3837 only and turned selling 3600 today.

15/5: **Spread +111, so rollover July/Aug SAR#15@3600 will be 3489. Lower the Short price mean the SAR will be far up high tomorrow after change of month today that affected SAR trade signal.

25/5: SAR#15 only went to low 3365 (hit twice in 2 days) and finally trigger SAR#16@3489. +111pts in theory, ZERO in fact.

30/5: SAR#17@3419 is triggered at PM session. Another losing trade! (May +22-89+111-70= -26)

6/6: Off low 3194 of last week to High 3421 @SAR#17 level, then, closed 3418 that below 100pts floating profit level.

9/6: SAR#18@3399 is triggered at 12pm+. Gave up low 3194 and hit new SAR.

15/6: **Spread +15. Rollover Aug/Sep lower 3399 to 3384 for SAR#18

30/6: Theory is Q2 = +253-104-125-104-25-100+22-89+111-70+20 = -211 ,but, Fact is Q2 = +203-104-125-104-163-100+22-89+0-70+20 = -510. So, Q2 is still a loss based on SAR#8 to SAR#18. The SAR#18 Long will only have its profit recorded in July in SAR#19. (June +20)

14/7: **Spread -15. So, Rollover Sep/Oct back to 3399 from 3384 did on 15/6. This is the Long 3399 at 9/6d.

24/7: Hit Mission Impossible Profit Target Mark 4199 and price high 4209 before closing 4168.

31/7: SAR#19@3914 after seeing high 4209 (24/7,+ 2 rollovers). Long journey! (July +515)

15/8: **Spread -22. So, Rollover Oct/Nov 3914 to 3936 for SAR#19 Short.

22/8: SAR#21@3828 got hit with a loss after few days SAR#20@3855 Long started.

24/8: SAR#22@3920 is triggered at 1030am opening. (Aug +59-27-92= -60)

13/9: Update monthly accumulated P&L from Jan to Aug as shown in the notes' brackets. SAR#23@3894 dated 6/9d reached its lowest mark 3667 yday, generating >200pts floating profit.

15/9: **spread -45 to -42. Assume roll at -45, so, SAR#23@3894 will be 3894+45=3939 higher from Nov to Dec spread rollover.

27/9: SAR#24@3775 is triggered, generating 119 theoretical profit for SAR#23 Short since 6/9d although FCPO did go low 3637 given up huge floating profit again!

29/9: Theoretical Profit for Q3 = +515+59-27-92-26+119 = +548

2/10: Q4 or October started with a loss. Hit SAR#25@3693 sell signal incurred 82pts loss.

13/10: SAR#26@3699 is hit. 2nd losing trade in OCT. rollover today too. ** spread -22, thus, SAR#26 Long @ 3699+22=3721 from Dec to Jan contract month.

24/10: SAR#27@3695 instead of 3700 since opening is 3695. 3rd losing trade in Oct.

26/10: SAR#28@3754 hit! 4th losing trade in Oct

31/10: SAR#29@3688 is the 5th losing trade in Ooct! Worst if this year!

2/11: SAR#30@3753 hit! 6th losing trade from Oct.

7/11: SAR#31@3718 is hit. The 7th losing trade. -82-6-4-59-66-65-35

10/11: SAR#32@3794 is hit. 8th losing trade! -82-6-4-59-66-65-35-76

15/11: **SAR#32 Long rollover higher from 3794 to 3836 using spread -42

27/11:SAR#33@3850 was hit before 1230pm. Gave up Huge floating profit. Only 14pts instead of 56pts due to rollover.

28/11: SAR#34 hit higher at opening 3925 instead of 3920. Looking back last 10 SARs, it is like 10 MLTs that good enough to kill traders especially those with low CRR.

29/11: SAR#35@3853 get hit PM session. Consider MLTs 11 SARs started Oct2.

15/12: **Spread -20 for FebMar, so SAR#35@3853 Short rollover higher by 20pts to 3873 now.

18/12: SAR#36@3776 buy

21/12: SAR#37@3734 sell was triggered when i was away!

26/12: SAR#38@3784 buy at night. Another 38 SAR trade signals!?

27/12: SAR#39@3748 sell at night. MLTs MLTs MLTs !!!

29/12: Last trading day. Q4 = -82-6-4-59-66-65-35-76+56-75-72+77-42-50-36 = -535. So, the theoretical accumulated P&L for year2023 is -213. It is a LOST !!! The SAR#39 Short@3748 will be brought forward to next year.

30/12: The End. Happy New Year.

CPO Futures Trades In Year 2022

2022-01-01T17:58:00.336+08:00

We continue the ONE YEAR ONE POST of the daily Crude Palm Oil Futures trade signals which we started in year 2020. Stop And Reverse (SAR) trade signals will always be given out in advance for readers traders to view before opening market unless there is any unforeseen circumstances. Notes will be posted if needed, at best we can.

BMD started Night Trading (T+1) at 9pm to 11:30pm on Monday 6/12/2021. (But, we stay on DAY DATA ONLY for all Year 2022 updates for own personal reasons. So, we will ignore Night Trading data.)

The theoretical accumulated gross profit & loss for the past two years :

2020 @ 681 points (or RM17,025.00 per contract) from 38 SARs , and
2021 @ 409 points (or RM10,225.00 per contract) from 38 SARs too.

Eye on the Multiple Losing Trades (MLTs) which is the most important feature in trading success while setting up good capital risk ratio is a must. For example, look at last year's April and August to December about the MLTs which would definitely wipe out traders.

SAR 2021 is brought forward to year 2022, that is, Long 4635 on 24/12/2021. But after readjusting to old format, Long 4614 is used to calculated the profit and loss of this year.

Sell 5430 +795 (16/2) (read note dated 15/2 and 16/2) ~~if 5445 is traded on 16/2/2022; else, hold Long 4635 (since 24/12/21)~~
Buy 5622 -192 ~~if 5622 is traded 17/2night&~~18/2day (updated! Read Notes)
Sell 6277 +655 ~~if 6277 is traded on 10/3night or~~ 14/3day
Buy 6166 +111 ~~if 6166 is traded on 22/3night or~~ 23/3day (actual: -222)
Sell 5823 -343 ~~if 5823 is traded on 28/3night or~~ 29/3day
Buy 5997 -174 ~~if 5997 is traded on 5/4night or~~ 6/4day
Sell 5792 -205 ~~if 5792 is traded on 6/4night or~~ 7/4day
Buy 5972 -180 ~~if 5972 is traded on 7/4night or~~ 11/4day
Sell 6242 +269 ~~if 6242 is traded on 12/5night or~~ 17/5day
Buy 6337 -95 ~~if 6337 is traded on 23/5night or~~ 24/5day
Sell 6223 -114 ~~if 6233 is traded on 7/6night or~~ 8/6day (read 9/6 note)
Buy 4001 +2222 ~~if 4001 is traded on 27/7night or~~ 28/7day
Sell 3827 -174 on 2/8night ~~if 3826 is traded on 1/8night or 2/8day~~ (read 28/7 note)
Buy 4031 -204 ~~if 4031 is traded on 4/8night or~~ 8/8day
Sell 4029 -2 ~~if 4029 is traded~~ on 18/8night ~~or 19/8day~~ (read 10/8note)
Buy 4207 -178 ~~if 4207 is traded on __night or~~ 22/8day
Sell 4141 -66 ~~if 4141 is traded on 29/8night or~~ 30/8day (read 24/8note)
Buy 3899 +242 ~~if 3899 is traded on 20/9night or~~ 21/9day
Sell 3773 -126 ~~if 3773 is traded on 22/9night or~~ 23/9day.
Buy 3664 +109 ~~if 3664 is traded~~ on 4/10night ~~or 5/10day~~
Sell ~~3615* -49~~ ~~if 3615 is traded~~ on 13/10night(3615) or 14/10day(3846) =>> (3615-3846 = -231ticks) (read notes 14/10)

Sell 4226 +562 ~~if 4226 is traded on 8/11night or~~ 9/11day
Buy 4165 +61 ~~if 4165 is traded on 23/11night or~~ 24/11day
Sell 4051 -114 ~~if 4051 is traded on 1/12night or~~ 2/12day
Buy 4005 +46 ~~if 4005 is traded on 22/12night or~~ 27/12day
~~Sell if 3975 is traded on 29/12night or 30/12day~~ Buy4005 bring forward to Year 2023

Notes:

W1: without using T+1 data, Open4718, High5047 Low4718 range for a start. Close4996. The next SAR sell signal will be much higher than the Long 4635 already.
W2: Open4995 H5164 L4950 C5127. Rollover of 170 for W3.
W3: O4954, H5327, L4912, C5323. Rollover 170 mean now price Long is 4465 (4635-170). But will keep recording the long 4635 as the theoretical price. consistency! Reach new high 5327 on Friday.
W4: O5298. H? L5222 C?. Theoretically MISSION ACCOMPLISHED when price hit 5435 with gross profit of 800 points or RM20,000 per contract. 5435 is traded on Thursday 27/1 first 15 minutes opening. If based on rollover 170pts in W3, 1000 pts target hit at 5465 since Long 4465 (4635-170).
3/2: MISSION ACCOMPLISHED for the year 2022! AGAIN!? FCPO did reach high 5700 during CNY eve before closing 5587. Should I stop writing note?
10/2: The record high 5749 (Monday, 7/2). ***The ADD-ON night trading T+1 data seemed not really much different from old DAY SESSION data after comparing them since T+1 data started 6/12/2021.*** T+1 data is included in the following day trading session.
15/2: Rollover 180+ in late afternoon session mean TWICE rollover already since the long 4635 at 24/12/2021. Thus, The long 4635-170-180=4285, below 4300 at MAY new contract month. The stop and reverse SAR is above 5000, generating more than we had targeted. So, MISSION ACCOMPLISHED !!
16/2: 5430 opening price is the MISSION ACCOPLISHED level this whole year (5445 was the theoretical sell signal but since open 5430, just use 5430)!!! We basically can stop here until NEXT year!!! 5430-4285 is basically the best round of trade with 2 rollover positions started from 24/12/2021. To get 4285, read 15/2 note. Technically it is nice to stay out from the market for the 1st quarter and start over only at 1/4 ??? This is because... Good Profit will come with MLTs!!!
17/2: The theoretical gross profit... 5430 - 4635 (without rollover) gave 795 points while 5430 - 4285 (with rollover) gave 1145 points. Good profit based on per contract basis. But, this is not really as important as MLTs - Multiple Losing Trades. The MLTs affect drawdown that can wipe out traders! Let's wait and see how many MLTs will have this year.
18/2: The 1st losing trade in lest than 48 hours! Took >1000 hours for good profit but feel the pain in <48 hours! This is technical trend trading.
25/2: 6470 is the PEAK after long 5622 was initiated at 18/2day? 6470MAY was traded at 24/2night while spot month 7093March highest in record!
1/3: MISSION ACCOMPLISHED again on SAR signal no.2 from 5622 to 6622!
8/3: First 5 months record high at 2/3 - 8757, 8034, 7108, 6657 and 6337.
14/3: Only 3 months hit new high at 9/3 - ~~7800, 7731~~, 7268, 6823 and 6531
15/3: Rollover (May/June) about 333 points at close, mean... short 6277 lower to 5944 but the theoretical SAR 6576 (15/3night or 16/3day) is artificially high due to rollover 333, here it means high artificial floating profit for now and next few days!
18/3: About 25 minutes trades from 5658 to 6174, starting about 330pm yesterday due to Indonesia tax issue up to USD375/ton. This was 500++ points of range in such a short period of time.
23/3: 6166 is triggered as SAR buy signal with theoretical profit 111 ticks (actually is a LOSS based on the rollover price from 6277 to 5944, read note 15/3, so 5944-6166 = -222).
29/3: SAR no.5 is triggered at 5823 and the low only 5820 with price fast moving up above 6000. Judging at SAR no.4 which should be a loss instead of profit, both 2 trades have accumulated more than 500 ticks of losses. If next SAR is triggered, it will be 3rd losing trade!
31/3: Q1 = +795-192+655+111-343 = +1026 "theoretical" accumulated profit.
6/4: SAR no.6 is triggered. 2nd theoretical loss (actual, 3 losing trades in a row now!)
7/4: SAR no.7 and its loss is 205 ticks in just 1 day!
11/4: SAR no.8 is the 4th theoretical losing trade in a row. MLTs finally appear!
15/4: Rollover last minute about 145 to 150. So, SAR no.8 (Long 5972) roll at 5822/27 July contract prices.
27/4: low 6416 high 7040 close 7001. If based on long 5972, MISSION ACCOMPLISHED again at 6972!!!
13/5: rollover 215 july august, meaning SAR no.8 rollover twice from 5972 to 5827 to 5612! But, we will most probably see new SAR next week when August contract is new 3rd active month after MAY contract expired 12pm (6990) today. If this is a cash settlement, 6990 - 5972 = 1018 ticks of profit !!!
17/5: change of new contract month, open 6166. SAR no.9 is triggered at 6242 theoretically. Knowing impossible to get 6242, opening price is the SAR trade but will still use 6242 for theoretical calculation due to consistency and easy reference. Based on the rollover to 5612, profit is 630 but lower to 554 due to opening price.
9/6: SAR no.11 has been triggered today but failed to update due to unforeseen event. It turned selling 6223 instead of 6233 which was not updated in advance.
15/6: rollover 80 pts will mean the SAR no.11 at 6223 is rollover down to 6143.
20/6: Low 4965 is telling us that the SAR no.11 has reached beyond its 1000 pts target. MISSION ACCOMPLISHED !
30/6: Q2 = -174-205-180+269-95-114 = -499 "theoretical" accumulated LOSS. Refer SAR no.6 to SAR no.11.
6/7: Low hit 3735 after limit down at 3757 (10%).
15/7: 3489 low late evening yesterday. Rollover -35 to -60 at opening 15min give a better price for sellers to rollover higher prices.
28/7: +2222 points of theoretical profit for SAR no.11 holding since 9/6. Stay out from Market for next 2 SAR or more????
3/8: SAR no.13 was triggered at 3827 (2/8night) that I failed to update early from 3826 to 3827 :)
8/8: confirmed a theory of MLTs based on 28/7note!!! But, how many MLTs will be? let's wait and see.
10/8: Early signal between 11/8 - 16/8 may not be available. If SAR no.15 is triggered which probably range 3850 - 3950, I will only be able update it after 16/8. )l^l( .MPOB gave End stock 1.77m, production 1.57m.
16/8: Change of month about -20 spread give advantage for long position.
19/8: SAR no.15 was triggered yday night with "2" ticks losses. Still a Loss! Need to see what is the close today at 6pm Friday to see what is the possibility!! Target another losing trade and see what will be the SAR no.16.
22/8: Opening 4228 gap above SAR no.16 at 4207. This is the 4th Losing trade. How many will be in this MLTs?
24/8: It is an Odd day making higher high more than lower low, and theoretically, SAR 4075 is NOT triggered due to such wild swing from 4350 to 4053 in less than 1 hour after 230pm open is considered as invalid since higher high is more than lower low. This is the WEAKNESS of the indicator that finally appears in today's trading range.
30/8: 5th Losing trade, SAR no.17 is triggered at 4141 just a day before the Merdeka Day.
12/9: MPOB end stock 2.09mt. 1st time go above 2mt since 12/2019@2.007mt. Highest 2/2019@3.045mt
15/9: spread closed -57, meaning rollover short for SAR no.17 @ 4141 will be higher at 4198.
19/9: H3889 L3671 Dec@19/9 Vs H3856 L3692 Nov@15/9). Actual: H3889 L3671 Dec@19/9 vs H3913 L3751 Dec@15/9.
21/9: After 5 losing trades (624 in total loss), SAR no.18 at 3635 is triggered with theoretical profit 242.
23/9: SAR no.19 wipe out half of the hard earned profit that took almost a month to make! This is technical trend trading!
26/9: SAR no.19 @ 3773 has good floating profit after seeing low 3431.
30/9: Q3 = +1714 (+2222-174-204-2-178-66+242-126). SAR no19@3773 will only have its P&L appear in October and Q4 when SAR no20 is triggered.
4/10: Q1+Q2+Q3= +1026-499+1714 = +2241 mean 3Q theoretical accumulated gross profit is RM56,025 per lot (2241x25x1)
5/10: SAR no.20 was triggered yesterday night at 3664 as a start for Q4. The profit is 109 ticks after holding on the short 3773 (SAR no.19).
11/10: MPOB Sept end stock reached 2.3mil tons indonesia's 6mt in July, so total may reach 10mt if indonesia sept end stock is 7.7mt ? SAR no.20 remain long 3664 after MPOB today.
14/10: * mark indicate a crucial issue where SAR no.21 at 3615 is triggered during night session. If price goes up above 3846 of last week high during day session, SAR no.21 will be invalid. Another issue is next week will ne new contract month with rollover -36-40 levels. If invalid price triggered, it is a real loss for trader even though system remains using theoretical price and have to revert back to the SAR no.20 instead of SAR no.21
14/10: Afternoon session triggered high 3846 making the SAR no.21 INVALID theoretically and therefore SAR no.20 had to be continued holding on (that is 3664). The realized loss (stress!) of selling SAR no.21@3615 had to be reversed at 3846, incurring 231 ticks loss (3615-3846). This is another tough issue for technical trend indicator that failed to avoid such dilemma and kill traders!
14/10: split and write the new SAR since the SAR no.20 and no.21 have generated a good learning lesson and keep for future reference.
25/10: Reach high 4263 from SAR no.20@3664
31/10: only 1 SAR for Oct theoretically but the painful error must be recorded to remind ourselves that technical trend indicator had shown its weak point! We need strong discipline to reverse back the position happened on SAR no.21 and maintain holding on the SAR no.20 buy signal that day. So, Oct is a losing month in real life instead of profit.
2/11: just a record: MLTs+MaxDrawDown can hit RM25k/lot, so, capital risk ratio 3x will definitely not be enough to support even ONE lot if we are hit by such Unlucky MLTs+MaxDrawDown. So, raise up your own margin, not follow BMD minimum margin.
3/11: reach high 4497 at opening but close 4336 1 tick of the low 4335. Profit range hit 833 ticks from 3664 to 4497, and seems that will be the top?
9/11: SAR no.1 (or SAR no.21 in theory) is triggered at 4226 in afternoon trading session, showing theoretical profit of 562 ticks! Looking back at the painful "error" of 231, profit had been much affected.
15/11: Rollover -35, SAR no.1 @4226 become @4261 FCPO Feb23 new contract month.
1/12: Q1+Q2+Q3 = +1026-499+1714 = +2241, Oct Nov +106+562+61 in theory. (real: need to -231 as happened on 13-14/10)
2/12: open 4030 below SAR sell signal 4051 by 21 points. But will based on 4051 theoretical price for consistency update.
13/12: MPOB: supply 1.68mt and end stock 2.29mt for November. After 5 months up, both data finally drop with good demand in last 2 months, export >1.5m and local consumption >200k. FCPO lowest 3721 yday after SAR sell 4051 on 2/12day.
19/12: rollover -15 meaning SAR4051 became SAR4066. There will be only 2 more weeks or 9 trading days only!
27/12: Giving up low 3815 and turning buy 4005 is another painful trade! Christmas off with Dalian up a lot in 2 days make CPO opening 4005 from 3830 previous settlement price. Hit high 4099 in 10 min after opening.
30/12 Friday: last trading day, Buy 4005 at 27/12 may be brought forward to next year.
30/12*: The Buy4005 will be brought forward to Year 2023.
Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 = +1026-499+1714+664= +2905 ticks or RM72,625.00 accumulated profit per contract size basis for year 2022 in theory.
Practically we won't be able to get such a huge profit since there will be a lot of leakages like trading costs, gaps unfilled trades and error@SAR no.21, etc etc

Happy New Year to all readers traders. We are heading to new post for year 2023.

CPO Futures Trades In Year 2021

2021-01-05T10:10:00.375+08:00

681 points accumulated theoretical gross profit in year 2020 was basically helped by a single trade in January 2020 that being carried forward from year 2019 and readers traders can actually refer back the previous post to find out the full details. Without the first profit trade in January 2019, it would be a "loss" year for 2020!

681 x 25 = RM17,025 is the theoretical profit for the year 2020 based on per contract size basis.

CPO Futures trades in this year 2021 will be following the same method. Readers traders can take advantage on the early trade signal that will be updated day by day "in advance" before the FCPO market is opened at 1030am everyday in Bursa Malaysia Derivatives unless there is any unforeseen circumstances.

Long 3481 (23/12/2020) is holding on until a new trade is initiated that will be shown in the following SAR trade signals as what I had done in the previous post.

Sell 3646 +165 (14/1/2021) ~~if 3646 is traded on 14/1/2021.~~
Buy 3464 +182 (29/1) ~~if 3464 is traded on 29/1~~.( No more "or else" again like previous post, understand?)
Sell 3360 -104 (3/2). ~~if 3360 is traded on 4/2.~~
Buy 3443 -83 (9/2). ~~if 3443 is traded on 9/2.~~
Sell 3829 +386 (18/3). ~~if 3829 is traded on 18/3~~
Buy 3895 -66 (23/3). ~~if 3895 is traded on 23/3~~
Sell 3826 -69 (25/3) ~~if 3826 is traded on 25/3~~
Buy 3818 +8 (6/4). ~~if 3818 is traded on 6/4.~~
Sell 3687 -131 (12/4). ~~if 3687 is traded on 12/4.~~
Buy 3791 -104 (15/4). ~~if 3791 is traded on 15/4.~~
Sell 3736 -55 (16/4). ~~if 3736 is traded on 16/4.~~
Buy 3789 -53 (20/4). ~~if 3789 is traded on 20/4.~~
Sell 4129 +340 (20/5). ~~if 4129 is traded on 20/5.~~
Buy 4150 -21 (3/6). ~~if 4150 is traded on 3/6.~~
Sell 4022 -128 (8/6). ~~if 4022 is traded on 8/6.~~
Buy 3629 +393 (30/6). ~~if 3629 is traded on 30/6.~~
Sell 4165 +536 (2/8) ~~if 4165 is traded on 2/8 (otherwise, hold on 3629).~~
Buy 4244 -79 (4/8) ~~if 4244 is traded on 4/8 (or else, hold on 4165)~~
Sell 4309 +65 (18/8) ~~if 4309 is traded on 18/8, or else, hold on 4244.~~
Buy 4353 -44 (25/8) ~~if 4353 is traded on 25/8, or else, hold on 4309~~.
Sell 4284 -69 (30/8). ~~if 4284 is traded on 30/8, or else, hold on 4353.~~
Buy 4364 -80 (3/9) ~~if 4364 is traded on 3/9, or else, hold on 4284.~~
Sell 4287 -77 (10/9) ~~if 4287 is traded on 10/9, or else, hold 4364.~~
Buy 4394 -107 (15/9) ~~if 4394 is traded on 15/9, or else, hold on 4287~~
Sell 4326 -68 (17/9) ~~if 4326 is traded on 17/9, or else, hold on 4394~~
Buy 4392 -66 (23/9) ~~if 4392 is traded on 23/9, or else, hold on 4326.~~
Sell 4326 -66 (28/9) ~~if 4326 is traded on 28/9, or else, hold on 4392~~
Buy 4486 -160 (29/9) ~~if 4486 is traded on 30/9, or else, hold on 4326~~
Sell 4851 +365 (8/11) ~~if 4851 is traded on 8/11, or else, hold on 4486 (actual 4545).~~
Buy 4938 -87 (10/11) ~~if 4938 is traded on 10/11; or else, hold on 4851 (actual 4790)~~
Sell 4868 -70 (16/11) ~~if 4868 is traded on 16/11; or else,~~ ((Actual - hold on 4938)).
Buy 4932 -64 (18/11) (real 4939) ~~if 4932 is traded on 18/11; or else, hold on 4868~~
Sell 4867 -65 (23/11) ~~if 4867 is traded on 23/11; or else, hold on 4932~~
Buy 4957 -90 (25/11) ~~if 4957 is traded on 25/11; or else, hold on 4867.~~
Sell 4887 -70 (26/11) ~~if 4887 is traded on 26/11; or else, hold on 4957.~~
Buy 4893 -6 (7/12) ~~if 4893 is traded on 7/12; or else, hold on 4887.~~
Sell 4749 -144 (9/12) ~~if 4749 is traded on 9/12; or else, hold on 4893.~~
Buy 4635 +114 (24/12) ~~if 4654 is traded on 23/12; or else, >> SAR no.37!~~
Sell if 4568 is traded on 31/12; or else, >> SAR no.38

NOTES:

5/1: Same like previous post, This is a Daily Technical Trend Trading Indicator, expecting stop and reverse (SAR) trades < 40 in total for the year 2021. We saw total 38 SAR trade signals in year 2020.
7/1:Surveys said end stock December multiple years low. So, wait for MPOB next Monday.
14/1: First trade of the year, selling 3646 with profit 165 pts per contract size basis. CPO hit low 3490 and was luckily stopped by "velocity logic" band. This rule helped avoiding "very" bad filled prices in volatile market in my view for stop loss orders. Just search "velocity logic BMD" and you can learn how it works.
18/1: change of month is giving extra 100 points of artificial profit due to the 101 points of spread discount! March was 3423 and April was 3322 on Friday's settlement prices.
January: +165+182=+347. Started with a theoretical accumulated profit of 347 ticks!
3/2: We have opening price 3315 way below 3360 SAR. But will use 3360 for consistency updates like notes on 18/1. All the P&L is basically a theoretical figure for systematical updates year after year.
4/2: today the opening is 3359, just nicely 1 tick below 3360 SAR trade signal !
9/2: open 3486, higher than 3443 SAR, but, we continue using 3443 as mentioned earlier on 3/2. February 2 SARs basically wipe out all the profit of January!
15/2: Spread 180 to 200+ range to rollover is huge and artificially affecting the P&L lower by 180+ points. However, as mentioned previously, consistency is utmost important. FCPO MAY is 180+ much lower than FCPO APRIL will still be recorded in the above SAR trade signals. It is still difficult to trigger SAR tomorrow which far below 3400 for FCPO MAY. We will still use Long 3443 on 9/2 FCPO APRIL as the theoretical price until the next SAR trading signal is triggered.
February: -104-83= -187.
1/3: February is a bad month without a good trade even though actual real trade is profitable because of rollover and profit trade carry forward to March. However, we still have to record the theoretical trades for consistency.
13/3: It is almost certain that no SAR for 1st 2 weeks in March, holding on 3443 since 9/2.
15/3: Spread MAY JUNE around 115+ to rollover at low end still artificially make the P&L lower by 115+ points. But, as said on 15/2, consistency is the important, we shall calculate the lower profit still for the long 3443 since 9/2 once we get the new SAR in this month or next month.
18/3: We have a SAR today after holding on since 9/2. Looking at 2 rollovers on 15/2 and 15/3, the actual realized profit will be about 386+115+180= 681 points. But, we will only record 386 points only for consistency.
19/3: CPO Futures price hit low 3667. SAR 3829 yesterday. High volatility continue!
23/3: open 3965 gap up without getting SAR 3895. But, will continue follow 3895 for consistency updates.
24/3: 3895 SAR can be seen today after seeing low 3879 this morning.
25/3: SAR 3826 is triggered. A losing trade with much bigger loss in reality which supposed to be against the actual SAR 3965 (instead of 3895 theoretical SAR). But, again, consistency records more important and that is why we will continue with theoretical SARs.
26/3: Overnight soyoil down 250 points (limit down) on weak weekly export settled 54.98 and morning Dalian palm oil futures also 400+ points helping CPO futures reaching low 3664, 162 points below the SAR 3826 that was triggered yesterday.
March: +386-66-69 = +251. It is a good month since only have 2 bad trades not what I expected in Multiple Losing Trades. The short 3826 on 25/3 will be carried forward to April for next SAR.
Q1 : +347-187+251 = +411.
7/4: We had the April's first SAR yesterday at 3818, 1 point below yesterday's high 3819. The selling 3826 on 25/3 had seen a low 3495 before turning buy signal 3818, giving up 300+ points of profit range!
8/4: A wild swing day open 3805 and down to 3760 then up until 3926 before coming back to 3791 close. Today's SAR trade signal 3753 is not triggered and tomorrow's SAR 3676 is much lower. If it is triggered, it will be a big loss!
12/4: Today we have MPOB data with higher supply and higher end stock; therefore prices were flushed down in the afternoon and triggered SAR sell signal 3687. The biggest losing trade since beginning of this year.
15/4: About 220 points of June July spread will either make a huge profit or loss for tomorrow update due to change of contract month. If 3791 SAR buy signal is triggered today against the 3687, it will be another big losing trade today; or else, tomorrow will show a large artificial floating profit in holding short 3687 !
15/4*: We had SAR buy signal 3791 in the morning session with another big losing trade! Change of new contract month with June July spread about 210+ will 'theoretically" trigger SAR sell signal tomorrow because July is much lower than June even though SAR sell signal "practically" is at 3736 June, waiting to be triggered !? But, we will theoretically update a sell signal tomorrow again due to the big discount spread on June July for consistency in this blog.
16/4: "Theoretically" SAR sell signal 3736 is triggered at opening 3651. "Practically" is holding buy signal 3791 triggered on 15/4 as we can see in the above due to change of contract month JUNE JULY. However, we follow the theoretical price for consistency in the blog.
19/4: After 2 trading days the big gap due to change of contract month that affected many on 16/4, we can start following the July contract and stick to the theoretical SAR sell signal 3651 aka 3736 depend our own personal trade strategies since the SAR buy signal is there to guide us from now on.
20/4: Multiple Losing Trades...4 continuous losing trades even though is just theoretical and is enough to wipe out traders who overtrade. 3789 SAR buy signal is triggered.
26/4: Soyoil reached 59.98 July during Asian time, but CPO futures opened 3990 and high 4009 in a while only, then went to day low 3852. Another wild day ! It seems the Long 3789 will be carried forward to next month and April month is a month of loss !
27/4: Soyoil futures 62.00 is about 5600 vs CPO Futures 4000, different RM1600 or USD 400 !! New world record ??
28/4: In 24 hours, soyoil futures high 63+ was flushed to low near 59. Such a move made CPO Futures opened 3922 against yesterday's close 4069, hitting low 3913 before closing 3942. April will be a month of loss since the next SAR sell trading signal is far below at 3777 on 30/4.
April: +8-131-104-55-53= -335
30/4: The long 3789 on 20/4 will be carried forward to May. As you can see at the above comments in April, it is definitely painful to see but learn to know losses is utmost important to survive and stop us from over-trading.
3/5: We will mostly have a profit trade if May has it first SAR sell signal.
6/5: Above 4124 is basically helping recover all the theoretical losses in April but the SAR sell signal is still quite low.
7/5: 4434 high, 52 points to the historical high 4486 !
10/5: MPOB gave 1.546mt on April's end stock vs 1.444mt in March. Change of new contract month will artificially reduce the profit if SAR sell signal is triggered next week after Raya holidays.
12/5: Open 4499, new "world" record. Market will close at 1230pm today for Raya holidays. New Record High 4525 for the 3rd contract month (July) before heading to new contract month (August) next week.
17/5: New contract month, rollover 221 based on settlement prices. So, the theoretical profit will be dragged down by 221 artificially.
19/5: Soyoil 70.49 and CPO 4669, record high for July contract yesterday. But, we already focus on August CPO contract that new high 4468 is actually below 4525 high on 12/5. So, may be 4525 is the 3rd active contract month high for this year already after seeing soyoil made U-turn from above 70 to 68 now this morning !?
20/5: We have a sell signal already 4129 for this month. Actual profit may well above 500 points (340+221) but stick to theoretical profit 340 for consistency.
21/5: From ("record" high 4669 if no rollover) high 4468 to low 3954 in a week and close 3993. The biggest range for this year so far with more than 500 points!?
24/5: Hit low 3867.
May: +340. Only 1 trade!
3/6: Open 4249 which is 99 points above 4150 SAR buy signal! Actual losing trade 120 (21+99) , not 21 s shown in SAR no.14. However, just for the theoretical prices for consistency.
4/6: June started with a losing trade and now the theoretical buy 4150 is also struggling, seeing low 4064 today that floating loss 86 in theory. Actual floating loss based at opening 4249 which could hit 185 for just holding 1 contract ! Can you see the risk if you are over-trading!?
8/6: This is the 3rd biggest theoretical losing trade (-128) so far but it is the biggest actual losing trade if based on the actual cut loss trade (-227) at opening on 3/6. These 2 trades in June can easily wipe out traders who overtrade using such technical trend indicator.
10/6: MPOB production and end stock about 1.57mt, both below surveys 1.58 to 1.63. So, we will see higher than 3894 closed at 1230pm. After hitting day high 3950, it hit low 3806 before closing 3845 at 6pm.
11/6: From 4022(8/6) to 3623 today's low. Good round that come with extra floating profits after covering the 2 actual losses in June! But, can traders really hold on!?
14/6: Almost "Mission Accomplished"! Low 3298 this morning near reached 1000 points of target and closed book!
16/6: Change new contract month, Sep, and rollover over 34 at opening for the short to maintain in new month.
18/6: Theoretically we have achieved the year target accumulated profit of 1000 points today. Mission Accomplished at 3289!
30/6: What is the accumulated profit? quarterly profit? monthly profit?
June: -21-128+393 = +244. Total 3 trading signals.
Q2 : -335+340+244 = +249. So Q1+Q2 = +411+249 = +660 is the accumulated profit.
7/7: Put back the words "otherwise, hold on...", starting from SAR no.17
12/7: MPOB (P1.606m, S1.614m, E1.419m), bullish but opened high sold down like morning session.
15/7: Rollover Sep Oct 60, meaning profit artificially lower by 60pts.
July: 0 or ZERO trade signal!
6/8: after profit taking on first trading of August of 536 ticks, it is considered a volatile week, range 4334 - 4093 and closed 4283 last second, trading 4280s to 4250s in last few seconds.
16/8: the long 4244 (4/8) has "rollover" around 110s lower. But, the sell SAR signal remain very low and therefore it is holding on for longer time now.
18/8: Turn sell 4309 with theoretical profit 65, actually reach above 170s (65+110s) from the rollover.
August: +536-79+65-44-69 = +409. Total 5 trade signals.
10/9: MPOB end stock reach 1.8m and CPO Futures 230pm hit below 4300 opening and trigger sell signal.
15/9: 5th Losing Trades in a row with change of month next 2 days may badly affect the SAR artificially again. The spread is currently between 110 to 105.
17/9: 6th losing trades due to change of month, artificially incur more losses. But must record for consistency.
21/9: Dynamic Circuit Breakers will be in effect with a width of 3.5%. If a contract market moves beyond +/- 3.5% within an hour during the overnight session, trading will be paused for two minutes. -- taken from CME FAQ. Yesterday, will trades happened at 1030am (opening 4176) to 1033am had triggered DCB at around 4100 and hit low 4032 then paused 2 minutes and reopened 4100 and up to 4250 day high. 218 points range in less than 2 hours in the morning session.
23/9: 7th losing trade! See the SAR no.26
28/9: 8th Losing trade! Many can't survive without early profit? The sell 4326 was triggered and hit low 4318 only, then went up to 4477 before closing 4445.
30/9: Open 4545 way above SAR 4486. Thus, actual loss is 219 instead of 160 as shown in no.28. This is the 9th losing trade. Multiple Losing Trades is finally appeared in September that basically can kill all good traders!
September: -80-77-107-68-66-66-160 = -624, Total 7 Losing trades!
Q3 : 0+409-624 = -215.
So, Q1+Q2+Q3 = +411+249-215 = +445 is the accumulated profit.
30/9*: Huge sept's loss hit 624, MLT even reached 737 since 30/8 started. Accumulated profit had reduced to 445 only. What will be the final quarter result from Oct to Dec?
4/10: Prices hit low 4486 (29/9 buy signal) after opening 4500. Closed 4586, 100 points higher from low!
5/10: New record high 4786. Spot month high 5000!
6/10: New high 4880! Spot month high 5096!
8/10: New high 4981! Spot month high 5139!
12/10: Yesterday same high 4981 but spot month new high 5170.
13/10: New high 5039! Spot month bid above 5200 but no trade above it. The SAR next day will be much lower! from 4673 to 4507.
15/10: Rollover +101, meaning the long is getting lower or in favour of long position.
20/10: new high 5090 and close 5066.
21/10: new high 5220, flushing down to 4940 and close 4966.
22/10: down to low 4816. 2 trading days range 404...ERROR! will be the peak over? 4486 ran up to 5220 generate 734 points of profit range and fell 404 points to the low this morning.
29/10: The P&L of long in 29/9 will be carried forward to November.
October: 0 or ZERO trade signal! Same with July!
8/11: After 9 losing trades, we have finally seen a profit trade! The theoretical long 4486 (actual 4545) has its theoretical SAR 4851 (actual 4790) at today's opening after holding on more than one month! Can you survive the 9 losing trades looking at the SAR no.21 to 28?
9/11: Low 4706, closed 4789
10/11: SAR buy 4938 hit a loss of 87 ticks (actual 148 ticks!)
11/11: high 4980 low 4832 close 4884. Another wild day!
15/11: Rollover 200 points! With such a big spread, SAR sell signal will theoretically be triggered tomorrow even though actual SAR will be holding on LONG. Let's wait and see tomorrow trade signal!
16/11: SAR is artificially triggered due to 200 points spread and change of contract month. Open 4830 is theoretical sell signal with indicator 4868 sell SAR no.31. However, the actual situation is remained long 4938 at FCPO Jan contract month. The note here is maintained its theory write-up for consistency so that we can record the theoretical results systematically.
17/11: Get the theoretical SAR 4868 today after opening 4830 gap down yesterday. But, price range 4910 and 4831 today moving up momentum and close 4892. If gap up 40 points tomorrow, we will see another new theoretical SAR buy signal (even though the Actual is remained holding on long 4938 at Jan contract which reach high 5105 today)
18/11: Looking at the SAR 4932 which is not far away from opening 4914, the SAR no.31 or sell 4868 theoretically can be used now by taking the profit against the SAR no.30 (long 4938). So, let's look that the short 4868 from the SAR no.31.
18/11*: Opening 4939 at 230pm above SAR no.32 (4932), and therefore we have a new trade after prices moved down to low 4859 below 4868 SAR this morning but closed 1 point below high 4924. Now we can ignore the SAR no.30 which held on long signal but affected by change of contract month triggered SAR no.31.
19/11: Reach high 5069 from low 4971 but close 4988 !!!
22/11: OHLC 4947/4976/4905/4961
23/11: 5020/5025/4842/4848. A wild trade and hit New SAR no.33 as 4th losing trade.
24/11: 4927/4937/4851/4909
25/11: 4950/4995/4921/4923
26/11: 4910/4945/4838/4851. 6th losing trade and November is turning Negative!
29/11: 4900/4931/4832/4858
November: +365-87-70-64-65-90-70 = -81. Compare to April & September!
30/11: 4760/4806/4638/4668
1/12: 4718/4737/4657/4688
2/12: 4639/4677/4567/4652. Reached low 4567. 2 days IPOC ended today.
In trading, Fear drives Results, Greed stops Complacency. Motivate FEAR and GREED but must has good capital risk ratio.
6/12: 4805/4830/4734/4751
6/12*: Night Market (T+1) officially started 9pm to 1130pm, 4750/47834750/4780. Volume 1226 for 3rd active contract (Feb). It had affected re-calibration of all charts. Therefore, we will keep monitoring the best option to adjust SAR trading signals for next year.
7/12: 4790/4935/4783/4731, (T+1) 4939/4949/4919/4936
8/12: 4875/4899/4792/4847, (T+1) 4840/4840/4802/4835
9/12: 4851/4916/4764/4778, (T+1) 4762/4772/4730/4758
9/12*: the SAR no.37 is triggered 1st time at night trading (T+1).
10/12: 4796/4841/4724/4800, NO T+1 on Friday! Wow! 4 Nights only!
13/12: 4723/4842/4719/4783, 4757/4815/4755/4787
14/12: 4754/4772/4694/4703, 4699/4717/4660/4665
15/12: Change of contract month will artificially inflate the profit of sell signal SAR no.37 by >200pts from Feb to Mar.
15/12* 4695/4701/4412/4485, 4484/4518/4467/4480
16/12: 4312/4444/4291/4409. 4404/4494/4396/4388. Due to change of contract month, SAR no.37 will probably the last stop and reverse trade signal for this year since there is big gap down of >200pts on new contract month MARCH against the FEBRUARY.
17/12: 4500/4529/4386/4408
20/12: 4380/4419/4294/4295, 4304/4366/4304/4327
21/12: 4397/4418/4358/4390, 4424/4427/4380/4405
22/12: 4433/4500/4423/4454, 4460/4518/4460/4518
23/12: 4510/4520/4451/4478, 4483/4514/4471/4505
24/12: SAR no.38 was triggered but I didn't on my desk to monitor. 4546/4653/4526/4649
27/12: Monday. Last 5 trading days. If SAR no.38 is remained until end of this week, we will have the same number of SAR trade signals like last year! 4635/4677/4601/4603, 4606/4640/4603/4640.
28/12: 4636/4796/4611/4768, 4761/4770/4730/4748
29/12: Last 3 trading days. Had decided for YEAR 2022 format... Just use DAY session data! Not include NIGHT session (or T+1) data. 4734/4738/4652/4696, 4691/4727/4691/4716
30/12: 4740/4740/4667/4689, 4678/4713/4669/4710
31/12: The new format started on 6/12 will be readjusted back to old format by excluding night market data. Therefore, the SAR no.39 signal is sell if 4558 is triggered (NOT 4568 as stated above)
December: -6-144+114 = -36
Q4: 0-81-36 = -117
So: Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 = +411+249-215-36 = +409 is the accumulated gross profit for year 2021.

The year is ended with 2 big MLTs which can be seen between August and December. This is the most important risk we must look into it beside the total profit.

The profit and loss is basically gross and theoretical! Do your own calculation if you wish to get the "real" gross profit and loss by checking back the rollover trades.

CPO Futures Trades In Year 2020

2020-01-07T12:22:00.185+08:00

The CPO Futures blog has been dormant for year 2019! In record, it was another challenging year with real profits only started after second half of year 2019. Full year performance for year 2019 was +457 ticks per contract basis. Just refer back to previous post and readers traders will be able to check the last 5 years full year performance.

Enter into Year 2020, we decided to write again! However, we are writing a totally new set of system to test the "unbelievable" set of trading strategy.

Firstly, the theory is the charting pattern of Higher Highs Lower Lows that can significantly affect the buy/sell signals and readers traders won't believe it. For example, buy 2190 on 16/10/2019 which was NO price traded at all (high 2260 low 2236) and it is holding on until today. Unbelievable right? Theory!! But, again but, it is an interesting trading strategy.

Just forget about any unforeseen circumstances, we try our best writing real trading strategy with early signals.

Therefore, anyway, we started Long 2190 in theory carried over from 2019 for the 2020 record. We shall see where is the sell price when it is triggered and will continue updating in this post only.

Lastly, keep coming back to this post and reader traders will be able to see the full year performance of year 2020 when we sum up at 31/12/2020. Be it profit or loss, we definitely start big and huge profit from the beginning of year 2020:

Long 2190 ( on 16/10/2019). It is the base since there was no sell signal after that until 31/12/2019. (we will change the below PRICES and/or DATES every day, trying our best possible for reader traders to get early signal in advance.)

Sell 3010 +820 (14/1). ~~if traded 3010 on 14/1/2020~~. Welcome 2020 with a Bang (820 ticks)!
Buy 2820 +190 (6/2). ~~if traded 2820 on 6/2/2020; or else, hold on 3010~~.
Sell 2738 -82 (11/2). ~~if 2738 is traded on 11/2/2020; or else, hold on 2820~~
Buy 2560 +178 (5/3). ~~if 2560 is traded on 5/3; or else, hold on 2738.~~
Sell 2445 -115 (6/3). ~~if 2445 is traded on 6/3; or else, hold on 2560.~~
Buy 2386 +59 (18/3). ~~if 2386 is traded on 18/3; or else, hold on 2445.~~
Sell 2212 -174 (19/3). ~~if 2212 is traded on 19/3; or else, hold on 2386.~~
Buy 2295 -83 (20/3). ~~if 2295 is traded on 20/3; or else, hold on 2212.~~
Sell 2301 +6 (2/4). ~~if 2301 is traded on 2/4; or else, hold on 2295.~~
Buy 2340 -39 (8/4). ~~if 2340 is traded on 8/4; or else, hold on 2301.~~
Sell 2294 -56 (9/4). ~~if 2294 is traded on 9/4; or else, hold on 2340.~~
Buy 2077 +217 (15/5). ~~if 2077 is traded on 15/5; or else, hold on 2294.~~
Sell 2366 +289 (26/6). ~~if 2366 is traded on 26/6; or else, hold on 2077.~~
Buy 2396 -30 (6/7). ~~if 2396 is traded on 6/7; or else, hold on 2366.~~
Sell 2355 -41 (7/7). ~~if 2355 is traded on 7/7; or else, hold on 2396.~~
Buy 2409 -54(8/7). ~~if...~~
Sell 2377 -32 (10/7). ~~if 2377 is traded on 10/7; or else, hold on 2409.~~
Buy 2449 -72 (14/7). ~~if 2449 is traded on 14/7; or else hold on 2377.~~
Sell 2573 +124 (28/7). ~~if 2573 is traded on 28/7; or else, hold on 2449.~~
Buy 2656 -83 (30/7). ~~if 2656 is traded on 30/7; or else, hold on 2573.~~
Sell 2662 +6 (11/8). ~~if 2662 is traded on 11/8; or else, hold on 2656~~
Buy 2737 -75 (13/8). ~~if 2737 is traded on 13/8; or else, hold on 2662.~~
Sell 2671 -66 (18/8). ~~if 2671 is traded on 18/8; or else. hold on 2737.~~
Buy 2740 -69 (19/8). ~~if 2740 is traded on 19/8; or else, hold on 2671.~~
Sell 2681 -59 (21/8). ~~if 2681 is traded on 21/8; or else, hold on 2740.~~
Buy 2701 -20 (28/8). ~~if 2701 is traded on 28/8; or else, hold on 2681.~~
Sell 2839 +138 (24/9). ~~if 2839 is traded on 24/9; or else, hold on 2701 (2733 open).~~
Buy 2813 +26 (6/10). ~~if 2813 is traded on 6/10; or else, hold on 2839 (2825 open)~~
Sell 2886 +73 (16/10). ~~if 2886 is traded on 16/10; or else, hold on 2813.~~
Buy 2933 -47 (21/10). ~~if 2933 is traded on 21/10; or else, hold on 2886...~~ (~~We wish < 30 SAR trades by 31/12/2020~~)
Sell 2874 -59 (22/10). ~~if 2874 is traded on 22/10, or else, hold on 2933.~~
Buy 2949 -75 (23/10). ~~if 2949 is traded on 23/10; or else, hold on 2874.~~
Sell 3188 +239 (23/11). ~~if 3188 is traded on 23/11; or else, hold on 2949.~~
Buy 3322 -134 (27/11). ~~if 3322 is traded on 27/11; or else, hold on 3188.~~
Sell 3344 +22 (17/12). ~~if 3344 is traded on 17/12; or else, hold on 3322.~~
Buy 3439 -95 (18/12). ~~if 3439 is traded on 18/12; or else, hold on 3344.~~
Sell 3387 -52 (22/12). ~~if 3387 is traded on 22/12; or else, hold on 3439~~
Buy 3481 -94 (23/12). ~~if 3481 is traded on 23/12; or else, hold on 3387.~~
Sell if 3478 is traded on 31/12; or else, hold on 3481. (31/12/2020 note: The buy 3481 will mostly be carried forward to year 2021 already like the year 2019 which brought a huge profit in the first SAR trade in year 2020 as readers traders can see in the above SAR no.1)

( Last trading week for year 2020 and the buy 3481 will most probably be carried forward to year 2021 already. Thus, December will have accumulated loss! )

NOTES:

This is a Daily technical trend trading. Expecting stop and reverse trades < 40 in total.
Higher Highs Lower Lows will be the main objects we are looking at.
1st SAR 3010 on 14/1. Huge profit 820 ticks or RM20,500 per contract!!😈
The accumulated profit target 1000 ticks is "Actually" reached at 2830 on 21/1 after turning sell 3010 on 14/1! 820 ticks + 180 ticks. Thus, should the trading stop!?
2575 limit down on 28/1. Thus, no update on 29/1 since limit up price also cannot affect SAR.
January ONLY have 1 stop and reverse (SAR) trade! +820!
1110 ticks in just "2" trades! Get ready to feel the Multiple Losing Trades (MLT)?
First loss of the year on 11/2. More to come on MLT?
25/2: short 2738 since 11/2 will probably no SAR until March.
February: 2 SAR trades +190-82 = +108. How about March?
We have 5 SAR trades in total now as at 5/3.
1 month hardwork 1 day gone! Loss 115 ticks in 1 day SAR trade!
18-31/3 is Malaysia's Covid-19 "lockdown" days.
another 1 Day gone! Loss 174 ticks in 1 day SAR trade!
20/3 another 1 DAY gone! Accumulated loss already if exclude the 1st 820 ticks profit.
23/3 Low 2214 nearly hit SAR 2212.
March: 5 SAR trades +178-115+59-174-83 = -135 !!!
April: 3 SAR trades +6-39-56 = -89. So, 2 months down!
May: 1 SAR trade only, +217. Long 2077 will only be realised next month!
The HHLL on 26/6 affecting 2366 SAR decision for trade no.13. Theoretically, it triggers 2366 but the HH > LL make me difficult to decide. Blindly "do"!
June: 1 SAR trade only, +289. Short 2366 is holding on to July.
3 continuous days (6/7-8/7) hit losses.
14/7: 2449 in theory is done instead of 2455 opening at 230pm.
July: 7 SARs -30-41-54-32-72+124-83= -188 !!!, Biggest losing month?!
18/8 turn sell 2671 with theoretical loss 66 due to change of contract month. Actual loss 40+.
Frustrated discount hit SAR due to the change of 3rd active contract month.
28/8 open 2733. So, theoretical buy 2701 is not practical!
August: 6 SARs +6-75-66-69-59-20 = -283 !!! Worst month?!
24/9 open 2825. So, theoretical sell 2839 is not practical!
September: 1 SAR only with +138.
16/10: Change of new 3rd contract month and 50 points discount trigger theoretical sell 2886 (open 2853). Again, we face another false signal but will have to follow the theoretical price in this blog for consistency.
22/10 sell 2874 is invalid if 2947 is traded and actual cost is not included in the above, but will recorded in here if 2947 is triggered. (At close, high is 2945, just 2 ticks below 2947 to break a record for this year that not happened yet since January started.)
23/10 buy 2949 will be invalid if 2852 is traded later today. Same rule like yesterday except different trade direction.
October: 5 SARs +26+73-47-59-75 = -82. Another losing month.
16/11: change of month gap discount 80 ticks will definitely affect SAR soon?
23/11: off multiple high 3420 to 3188 in just 2 trading days and trigger sell signal!
November: 2 SARs +239-134 = +105
2/12: December count down begin...20 more trading days and will be hard to find good result already based on the trading chart patterns in last 2 months!
15/12: the huge discount of 90 ticks on 3rd 4th contract months will probably trigger SAR tomorrow!
16/12: change of month discount 91 points failed to triggered SAR at opening. Thus, hold on the long 3322. Rollover 91 points mean actually long now 3231, but, we stick to the theoretical long 3322 at the above SAR for consistency theoretical calculation of profit and loss.
17/12: After 2nd day change of month only SAR is triggered with only theoretical profit of 22 points vs actual 113! But, we stick to theoretical profit for consistency updates.
18/12: Another day with SAR happened in very short period of time with a loss.
22/12: it is a SAR sell day again with a loss of 52 points per contract size basis!
23/12: another SAR buy with a loss of 94 points! 5 more trading days to end for this year write-up and I doubt we can see a profit in 5 trading day, the buy 3453 will most probably be carried forward to next year 2021 like what we did start in the beginning of this year where the buy was carried forward from OCTOBER 2019 as readers traders can see in the above write-up.
31/12/2020: Last trading day today and December hit with accumulated loss of 219 points per contract basis from four (4) SAR trades +22-95-52-94 as readers traders can see from the above SAR no.36 until SAR no.39. Therefore, here is the end of the write-up on this post and we will start a new post next year. Another comment in HERE for this year performance which readers traders can find it in my CPYEOH's blog. I will sum up my thought in CPYEOH's blog for year 2020 performance later evening.

Closing the Chapter of 2020... Gross Profit 681 points.

Let us leave behind the painful moments and treasure the sweet memories...

Wishing all readers traders have a wonderful and Healthy New Year 2021. ✌

CPO Futures Trades In 2018

2017-12-11T18:08:00.000+08:00

The CPO Futures's stop and reverse trade signals in year 2017 had generated accumulated gross profit 21 ticks ONLY based on the 101indicators On Futures Trading book which the book has been "retired" officially (purposely out-of-print) on 11/12/2017 today. We wish all the best to whom had purchased the book. Keep it and wish you always laughing to the bank year after year.

We go Twitter for a try! Search the latest CPO Futures tweets without hashtag while keep coming back this blog for latest updates. Click the first tweet: 101indicators@cpofutures using technical trend trading has finally arrived at Twitter!

Just for reference, in year 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017, accumulated gross profit was +966, +34, +1096 and +21 ticks per contract size basis respectively. What will be the performance of year 2018 for the technical trend trading strategy? The Answer is +90 ticks (or, go to the bottom and you will find it).

Again, Eye on everyday's hourly timetable - 1130am, 1230am, 4pm, 5pm and 6pm. However, please take note that we will only publish the stop and reverse trade signals table here without giving in advance on trade signals. CoM = Change of Month.

Please accept our sincere apologies that we may miss out some trading days and no updates on the table due to unforeseen circumstances, but we will definitely put all of them in the table once available. Keep coming to see the updated table below:

sell 2583 -21 (6pm 4/12/2017) - we will number the trades start year 2018.
buy 2475 +108 (1230pm 15/12/2017)
sell 2496 +21 (1230pm 19/12/2017)
buy 2510 -14 (4pm 19/12/2017)
sell 2504 -6 (6pm 20/12/2017)
buy 2504 -- (6pm 26/12/2017)
sell 2495 -9 (4pm 29/12/2017); December: +79

buy 2536 -41 (1130am 2/1/2018) - highest 2615
sell 2562 +26 (4pm 8/1/2018) - lowest 2562
buy 2576 -14 (5pm 8/1/2018) - highest 2641
sell 2594 +18 (1230pm 11/1/2018) - hit 2494, 2444, lowest 2433
buy 2496 +98 (5pm 23/1/2018) - highest 2526
sell 2491 -5 (6pm 25/1/2018)
buy 2502 -11 (1130am 26/1/2018)
sell 2489 -13 (1230pm 26/1/2018)
buy 2511 -22 (1130am 29/1/2018)
sell 2499 - 12 (1130am 30/1/2018)
buy 2507 -8 (4pm 30/1/2018)
sell 2490 -17 (6pm 30/1/2018); January: -1
buy 2493 -3 (6pm 5/2)
sell 2481 -12 (1230pm 6/2)
buy 2492 -11 (1130am 7/2)
sell 2486 -6 (5pm 7/2)
buy 2491 -5 (1130am 8/2)
sell 2476 - 15 (1230pm 8/2)
buy 2490 -14 (4pm 8/2)
sell 2488 -2 (1230pm 9/2)
buy 2491 -3 (4pm 9/2)
sell 2497 +6 (1130am 14/2 )
buy 2507 -10 (4pm 19/2)
sell 2498 -9 (1230pm 20/2)
buy 2506 -8 (4pm 20/2)
sell 2495 -11 (5pm 20/2)
buy 2499 -4 (1230pm 22/2)
sell 2498 -1 (4pm 22/2)
buy 2515 -17 (1130am 23/2); February: -125, Highest 2568.
sell 2502 -13 (1130am 2/3/2018) India duty 44%, hit 2402. 2352, Lowest 2350
buy 2429 +73 (1130am 14/3/2018)
sell 2426 -3 (5pm 16/3/2018)
buy 2432 -6 (1230pm 20/3/2018)
sell 2423 -9 (1230pm 21/3/2018)
buy 2441 -18 (4pm 21/3/2018)
sell 2433 -8 (1130am 23/3/2018)
buy 2434 -1 (6pm 26/3/2018)
sell 2424 -10 (1130am 27/3/2018)
buy 2431 -7 (5pm 27/3/2018)
sell 2422 -9 (1130am 28/3/2018)
buy 2430 -8 (1130am 30/3/2018); March: -19
sell 2437 +7 (6pm 3/4)
buy 2448 -11 (1130am 4/4)
sell 2419 -29 (4pm 4/4)
buy 2441 -22 (5pm 4/4)
sell 2463 +22 (6pm 9/4), hit 2363, Lowest 2354
buy 2408 +55 (6pm 17/4)
sell 2390 -18 (1130am 18/4)
buy 2409 -19 (6pm 18/4)
sell 2395 -14 (1130am 20/4)
buy 2404 -9 (1230pm 20/4)
sell 2402 -2 (4pm 20/4)
buy 2404 -2 (5pm 20/4)
sell 2404 0 (5pm 23/4)
buy 2406 -2 (6pm 23/4)
sell 2396 -10 (1130am 24/4); April: -54
buy 2371 +25 (1130am 07/05), hit 2471, highest 2498
sell 2462 +91 (1130am 25/5); May: +116
buy 2439 +23 (6pm 1/6)
sell 2418 -21 (4pm 4/6), hit 2318, 2293, 2268, 2243, Lowest 2238
buy 2282 +136 (6pm 22/6)
sell 2261 -21 (1130am 25/6)
buy 2281 -20 (5pm 25/6)
sell 2276 -5 (1230pm 26/6)
buy 2285 -9 (4pm 26/6)
sell 2277 -8 (6pm 26/6)
buy 2282 -5 (1130am 27/6); June: +70. Q1 -145 Q2 +132. H1 -13
sell 2308 +26 (1130am 3/7), hit 2208, 2283, 2158, Lowest 2144.
buy 2196 +112 (1130am 18/7)
sell 2191 -5 (4pm 19/7)
buy 2194 -3 (6pm 20/7)
sell 2189 -5 (1230pm 23/7)
buy 2185 +4 (1130am 26/7)
sell 2181 -4 (1230pm 31/7)
buy 2198 -17 (4pm 31/7); July: +108
sell 2193 -5 (6pm 2/8)
buy 2197 -4 (6pm 3/8)
sell 2198 +1 (5pm 6/8)
buy 2205 -7 (6pm 6/8)
sell 2221 +16 (1130am 13/8)
buy 2220 +1 (4pm 16/8)
sell 2232 +12 (1130am 23/8)
buy 2233 -1 (1230pm 28/8)
sell 2215 -18 (4pm 29/8)
buy 2237 -22 (4pm 30/8); August: -27
sell 2261 +24 (1130am 7/9)
buy 2267 -6 (4pm 7/9)
sell 2264 -3 (6pm 7/9), hit 2164, 2139, Lowest 2137.
buy 2176 +88 (5pm 25/9)
sell 2178 +2 (1130am 27/9)
buy 2185 -7 (1230pm 27/9)
sell 2165 -20 (6pm 27/9); September: +78, Q3 +159.
buy 2193 -28 (1130am 3/10)
sell 2185 -8 (6pm 8/10)
buy 2205 -20 (6pm 9/10)
sell 2184 -21 (4pm 10/10)
buy 2192 -8 (4pm 12/10)
sell 2188 -4 (6pm 15/10)
buy 2253 -65 (1130am 16/10, artificial -50s CoM)
sell 2226 -27 (1130am 19/10)
buy 2232 -6 (1130am 22/10)
sell 2221 -11 (4pm 23/10)
buy 2189 +32 (6pm 29/10)
sell 2171 -18 (1130am 30/10); October: -184, hit 2071, 2046, 2021, 1996, 1971, lowest 1965
buy 2034 +137 (1130am 16/11, artificial -70s CoM)
sell 2000 -34 (4pm 16/11)
buy 2006 -6 (6pm 21/11 )
sell 2020 +14 (1230pm 26/11)
buy 1997 +23 (4pm 28/11)
sell 2001 +4 (4pm 29/11)
buy 2017 -16 (5pm 29/11); November: +122
sell 2000 -17 (4pm 03/12)
buy 2024 -24 (4pm 04/12)
sell 1999 -25 (1130 05/12) * 6/12-26/12 "NO!" updates *
buy 2009 -10 (6/12 4pm)
sell 2004 -5 (6/12 6pm)
buy 2006 -2(10/12 4pm) hit 2106, 2131, 2156, 2181
sell 2139 +133 (24/12 1130am)
buy 2146 -7 (24/12 4pm)
sell 2125 -21 (24/12 6pm)
buy 2124 +1 (31/12 1130am)
sell 2120 -4 (31/12 4pm)
buy 2126 -6 (31/12 5pm)
sell 2119 -7 (31/12/2018); December: +6, Q4 -56 H2 +103
The End of 2018... Happy New Year.

Full Year Performance for Year 2018 is +90 ticks.

~~(We almost finish our another ONE year update and will really call it a day for CPO Futures blog)~~

Tweets by cp_yeoh
Tweets by cpofutures

101 Indicators On 2017

2017-01-03T16:19:00.001+08:00

101indicators On Futures Trading book was published in year 2014 through print on demand technique to reach out CPO Futures traders who wish to know the secret of mastering one technical trend trading in a simple way. If you are one of the book owner, you will know why in the page 153.

In response to 101indicators's traders, here is the records in year 2014, 2015 and 2016, generating accumulated gross profits of 966, 34 and 1096 ticks per contract size basis respectively.

How about 101 indicators on 2017? Keep coming back to this page everyday for own review. Eye on 1130am, 1230am, 4pm, 5pm and 6pm everyday.

We try our best keep updating the stop and reverse trade signals here without publishing full table. Please accept our sincere apologies that we may miss out some trading days and no price update due to unforeseen circumstances. Keep coming to see the update below:

29/12/2017 - ~~Buy [ 2504 ] ; Sell [ 2495 ] = [ -9 ] ticks.~~
~~Hold on Long / Short [ 2495 ] as of [ 29/12/2017 ] 6pm close.~~
Accumulated ~~Loss~~ / Profit [ 21] as at the last SAR price at 4pm 29/12/2017
Target: 800 ticks at price - FAILED. (1st Half -318 ticks!) (2nd Half +339!)

Advance stop and reverse trade signals for today's date ( 29/12/2017 ):

1130am: Less / ~~More~~ than 2501, Sell / ~~Buy~~.
1230pm: Less / ~~More~~ than 2502, Sell / ~~Buy~~.
0400pm: Less / ~~More~~ than 2502, Sell / ~~Buy~~.
~~0500pm: Less / More than 2498, Sell / Buy.~~
0600pm: ~~Less~~ / More than 2500, ~~Sell~~ / Buy.

Notes:

We will publish some notes in due course. Sorry for not giving out stop and reverse trade signals in advance. Year 2017 started with a loss of 55 ticks per contract size basis.
(5/1 update) Familiarize yourselves how we make changes at the above prices and dates with "strikethrough" or cross out text. Total 85 ticks losses in 2 trades and hold on short 3131 now.
(10/1 update) 121 ticks losses in 6 trades, like January last year!? Let's see by end of January.
16/1 update: artificial profit about 40 ticks on change of month due to lower spread.
17/1 update: actual loss 40+10=50 based on lower spread, so, accumulated loss 301 not 261.
27/1 update: we try update trade signal ONE hour in advance at our best after CNY.
3/2 : January -295 ticks based on last selling price 3113.
16/2: Today will have "artificial" huge loss due to change of contract month. 89 ticks losses is artificial but must be recorded accordingly for consistency. No need to record the small profit.
28/2: February -57 ticks based on the last selling price 2980. Thus, March will have profit !!
1/3: off the lowest 2723, turning long 2816 against short 2980 was a big move that reduced the accumulated huge losses from 352 to 188 ticks.
16/3: Artificial huge loss again due to change of contract month? (2733-2816) 83 ticks artificial loss must be recorded for consistency. Spread 75 ticks!
3/4: March -104 ticks based on last selling price 2772. The profit and loss short 2772 will only be recorded in April. Quarterly loss of 456 (295+57+104) is the highest accumulated losses even though it was artificially inflated as we need consistency in data collection.
14/4: change of contract month 50 ticks "profit" will be artificial but must be recorded accordingly for consistency.
2/5: April +104 ticks based on the last selling price 2502.
5/6: May -41 ticks based on the last selling price 2619 on 23/5. Accumulated losses remained very high at 393 on last day of May. Just for record, there was 75 ticks spread on 16/5 that substantially and artificially reduced good profit.
16/6: Another change of contract month around 50 ticks on spread rollover.
20/6: Even though it is an artificial loss with the sell signal 2466 against the long 2477 due to change of contract month, we record them as loss.
3/7: June +75 ticks based on the last selling price 2454 on 30/6. Accumulated losses 318 ticks on the last day of June. 6 months still in loss even though 2nd Quarter profit 138 ticks (+104-41+75).
1/8: July +34 ticks based on the last buying price 2556 on 24/7. The losses will be reduced in the next trade but still far away from targeted level. 5 more months to see what is the end results for year 2017.
17/8: due to rollover, indicator turned long 2642 at 1130am.
5/9: August +88 ticks based on the last selling price 2716 on 29/8. September starts with a loss after turning long 2742 this morning.
18/9: Rollover about -25 ticks artificially lower the profits but still have to be recorded for consistency. Sell signal may be triggered at 1130am since new contract month settled 2635, lower than SAR at 2836.
2/10: September -21 ticks based on the last selling price 2749. Accumulated loss is 217 ticks per contract size basis. What will be the last 3 months profit and loss?
31/10: October -41 ticks based on the last buying price 2744. Accumulated loss is 258 ticks. Can last 2 months turn the loss to be a profit year even though target may not be achieved!
16/11: Rollover based on the -19 spread helped the short price higher. However, indicator price is remained short 2782 for consistency in calculating profit and loss.
30/11: November +200. Turn buy 2604 at 6pm generate 178 ticks and help reducing a lot of losses. One more month to see the yearly result which is believed to be another bad year since it is a mission impossible to hit 800 ticks profit target already.
15/12: Today at 1230pm we finally get an accumulated profit 29 ticks after almost a year! We had started a new post for year 2018 last few days ago with new format of updating and "retired" the book.
18/12: Rollover about 32 ticks making extra artificial profit for the trading system. We will see what is the result of year 2017 another 2 more weeks!
19/12: The profit of 21 ticks is artificial profit. The long 2475 is sold 2470 at a loss if no change of new contract month.
29/12: December +79 ticks based on the last selling 2495. Accumulated profit 21 ticks for the whole year hardwork! I finish this post and wish all traders Happy New Year 2018.

Stop And Reverse Trade Signals (Year 2017)

2017-01-03T09:54:00.000+08:00

This is a technical trend indicator which we will try our best to publish and keep updating day after day before 6pm for the year 2017 when the stop and reverse trade signal is getting near. Remember, it will purely be based on the 6pm market close trade signals on CPO Futures. Thus, just view this page everyday before 6pm see whether we do update a new trade signal for your own judgement.

It is believed that the technical trend indicator will never have more than Fifty (50) stop and reverse trade signals over the 200 over trading days in year 2017. We expect about 20 to 40 stop and reverse trade signals only.

Therefore, it is the best indicator to test the extreme of Multiple Losing Trades, Fear and Greed on a technical trend trader for discipline and psychology. For example, 400 ticks losses per contract size basis from the Multiple Losing Trades will really stress a technical trend trader.

New reader traders are advised to read old posts for familiarization on our write-ups since September 2014 and just keep coming back to this page for own review. Please be reminded that all the stop and reverse trade signals will be given in advance at our very best without taking into any unforeseen circumstances, for example, we may miss some updates due to unforeseen reasons and 800 ticks target will NOT be reached (a huge loss is even expected in this post!).

Here is the 2017 stop and reverse trade signals for readers traders to view in advance:

~~2/2/2017 - Sell / Buy if close below/above [ 3132 ] at 6pm.~~
~~Hold on Long/Short [ 2502 ] since 30/5/2017~~.
Target: 800 ticks at price - ? .

Here is the table of stop and reverse trades that will be published in due course:

Trades	date		High	Low	Close	s/L	Price	P&L
0	18/10/2016		2800	2712	2713	L	2713	-136

1	2/2/2017	3085	3058	3072	s	3072	359
2	12/5/2017	2675	2639	2655	L	2655	417
3	30/5/2017	2532	2475	2502	s	2502	-153
4	6/7/2017	2563	2540	2561	L	2561	-59
5	26/9/2017	2751	2699	2749	s	2749	188
6	23/10/2017	2790	2742	2787	L	2787	-38

15/11/2017

2735

2709

2712

-75

Notes:

The Long 2713 on 18/10/2016 will only be recorded its profit in 2017. Adjust yourselves on rollover price due to the change of 3rd active contract month.
(6/1 update) If we change the date without changing price, it means no trade signal yet.
(10/1 update) We will probably see the first trade signal tomorrow for this year.
(5/4) 1st Quarter only have 1 stop and trade on 2/2 (excluding the rollover).
(22/6) 2nd Quarter almost end and we only have 3 stop and reverse trades signals ( Excluding the rollover trades ).
(15/9) In theory, profit target of 800 ticks per contract had been reached after cpo futures was traded above 2800 early this week. However, we will still base on the stop and reverse trade signal to see the result.

December CPO Futures Trading Plan

2016-12-01T10:43:00.000+08:00

This is the last trading month for the year 2016 and we wish to outline the most basic stop and reverse trade signals in the simplest way of updates while publishing the last three months signals here for easy references.

12pm - 29/12 - ~~Buy~~ / Sell 3113 ~~if above/below~~ .
6pm - 30/12 - Buy 3106
or else - ~~Hold on Short 3104~~. ~~(Change of month! Adjust yourself)~~
Target - ~~2853 (3104 - (800 - 549))~~. More details in cpyeoh blog or click HERE.

We will just keep updating the above date and trade signals comments before the time of 12pm and 6pm as soon as we have been given the figures without further explanation. When the trade signal is triggered, we will post it at the below table.

CPO Futures traders only need to keep coming back to this post to see whether we have changed the date and trade signals or not. Then, you can make own judgement based on the below table.

Always remember: Data Collection, Multiple Losing Trades, Fear and Greed.

Here is the last six months trades in Excel format as traders can see in the last few posts:

Trades

date

time

Price

s/L

P&L

27	2/9/2016	12	2568	L	-10	405
28	13/9/2016	18	2589	s	21	426
29	19/9/2016	18	2643	L	-54	372
30	27/9/2016	18	2663	s	20	392
31	11/10/2016	18	2615	L	48	440
32	31/10/2016	18	2764	s	149	589
33	1/11/2016	12	2774	L	-10	579
34	1/11/2016	18	2732	s	-42	537
35	2/11/2016	18	2774	L	-42	495
36	3/11/2016	12	2768	s	-6	489
37	7/11/2016	18	2789	L	-21	468
38	15/11/2016	18	2824	s	35	503
39	16/11/2016	12	2851	L	-27	476
40	18/11/2016	12	2858	s	7	483
41	21/11/2016	12	2923	L	-65	418

9/12/2016

3089

166

584

14/12/2016

3114

-25

559

20/12/2016

3104

-10

549

27/12/2016

3130

-26

523

29/12/2016

3113

-17

506

30/12/2016

3106

513

(21/12 update) It is strongly believed that the 800 ticks target will not be achieved by end of the year. Accumulated profits only 549 ticks when the trade signal sold at 3104.
(29/12 update) Another 2 trading days and we will stop updating this post.
(31/12 update) This is the end for this post and we know that its accumulated profit is 513 ticks per contract size basis with total 47 stop and reverse trades.

Happy New Year.

November CPO Futures Trading Plan

2016-11-01T10:32:00.003+08:00

In this November, without taking into any unforeseen circumstances, we will continuously try our best to list down all the stop and reverse trade signals in advance for traders to make own judgement. Just come back to this post as usual to find out 12pm 6pm trading signals that we will update them in advance.

Refer the second post of October plan for the table or click HERE to get the table. We will continue the updated table in this post as you can see in the previous table.

29	19/9/2016	18	2643	L	-54	372
30	27/9/2016	18	2663	s	20	392
31	11/10/2016	18	2615	L	48	440

31/10/2016

2764

149

589

As you can see, it is trade 31 when the long was initiated on 11/10 at 2615 at 1800 hour or 6pm; it generated profit 48 ticks against the short 2663 on 27/9.

We have the accumulated profit of 589 ticks so far based on the per contract size basis after the stop and reverse sell signal was initiated at 6pm yesterday.

Always remember: Data collection, Multiple Losing Trades, Fear and Greed.

The 12pm6pm indicator trade signals for November:

(1/11 s2764) - As traders can see at the above table, we had a sell 2764 at 6pm yesterday with profit 149 ticks in single trade and accumulating profit 589 ticks since the 1st trade in record for year 2016. The short 2764 will cut loss turn long if 12pm is last traded above 2767 today

1/11/2016

2774

-10

579

We see the first stop and reverse trade in November with a loss of 10 ticks, reducing accumulated profit to 579 ticks. The short 2764 cut loss turn long 2774 at 12pm. We will again cut loss turn sell if 6pm is closed below 2769 today 1/11/2016.

1/11/2016

2732

-42

537

We have 2 stop and reverse trades in a day with losses on the 1/11/2016.
(2/11 s2732) - 52 ticks losses with 2 trades in the first day of November and it is holding on the short 2732 now with 6pm trade signal at 2770 today.
(3/11 s2732) - cut loss turn long if 6pm is closed above 2772 today.

2/11/2016

2774

-42

495

3 losing trades in a row that we always like to name it Multiple Losing Trades, feel the Fear and still have Greed? The short 2732 has cut loss turned long 2774 at 6pm today. We will monitor on the long 2774 from now on.

3/11/2016

2768

-6

489

(3/11 L2774) 12pm cut loss turned sell 2768. Another losing trade. We have 4 multiple losing trades now. Eye on the short 2768 now with 6pm stop and reverse buy trade if cpo futures is closed above 2771 which is very near too.
(7/11 s2768) The short 2768 will have to do stop and reverse buy if 12pm is last traded above 2767. As 12pm still remained sell signal, now buy only if 6pm is above 2766.

7/11/2016

2789

-21

468

5 multiple losing trades and long 2789 at 6pm close on 7/11/2016.
(8/11 L2789) - Sell if 12pm is last traded below 2765. Sell if 6pm is closed below 2772.
(9/11 L2789) - Sell if 6pm is closed below 2775 today.
(10/11 L2789) - Sell if 12pm is below 2780 today. Sell if 6pm is closed below 2780 too like the 12pm.
(11/11 L2789) - Will we achieve the 800 ticks yearly target? 800 - 468 + 2789 = 3121 target.
(14/11 L2789) - Off highest high 3089, giving up huge floating profit. Sell if 6pm is closed below 2828.
(15/11 L2789) - Sell if 12pm is below 2836 today. Sell if 6pm is closed below 2844 today.

15/11/2016

2824

503

16/11/2016

2851

-27

476

18/11/2016

2858

483

(18/11 s2858) - Buy if 6pm is closed above 2873 today.
(21/11 s2858) - Buy if 12pm is above 2875 today.

21/11/2016

2923

-65

418

(21/11 L2923) - Turning long 2923 at 12pm today but will cut loss turn sell if 6pmm is closed below 2883, otherwise, hold on the long 2923 until further notice.
(23/11 L2923) - Sell if 6pm is closed below 2896 today.
(24/11 L2923) - The long 2923 will continue with 800 - 418 + 2923 = 3305 as the target to call it a day! Sell if 6pm is closed below 2906 today.
(25/11 L2923) - Sell only if 6pm is closed below 2924 today. Target 3305 is used to achieve the 100% yearly rate of return strategy.
(28/11 L2923) - Sell if 12pm below 2936. Three more trading days for November. Sell if 6pm is closed below 2950, still 100 over ticks below the current prices!!
(29/11 L2923) - Sell if 12pm below 2974. Two more trading days. Sell if 6pm is closed below 2972.
(30/11 L2923) - Sell if 12pm below 2993. It seems that the profit will only be booked in next month since today is the last day for November. Sell if 6pm is closed below 2992 today.

Go to cpyeoh blog for the explanation by clicking HERE.

October Trading Plan And The Featured Post - 4

2016-10-04T11:12:00.003+08:00

We try to leave all the notes in this post for the October trading plan and new readers traders are advised to refer back all the old posts in order to familiarize yourselves how this CPO Futures blog is written to explain its technical analysis.

We encourage readers traders to go through the old posts especially every last quarters write-ups since 2014 and you will probably find something suit your trading rhythm.

In this October, we will only update the stop and reverse trade signals in this post once we believe it is near to hit a stop and reverse trade signal. However, it will definitely be a delay trade signals especially at 6pm where the market had already closed and we wish to apologize for not able to update them in advance like the last few posts. Just keep coming again to this post and see whether we update the trade signals in advance if needed.

As at the end of September, the accumulated profit was 392 per contract size basis, or refer back the previous post for details. The Short 2663 will have it profit or loss being recorded in October.

The 12pm6pm indicator for October:

(4/10 s2663) Eye on the short 2663 with 12pm 2663 and 6pm 2658 stop and reverse trade signal. Let's wait and see what will be the October profit and loss!
(7/10 s2663) Buy if 12pm is traded above 2617. Please be reminded the 2617 trade signal will be adjusted +/- 1 or 2 ticks due to the trading system in last seconds. Update for 6pm trade signal will be available here after 12pm. Thus, do come back to this post for latest update after 12pm. We will see a buy signal if 6pm is closed above 2613 today.
(10/10 s2663) The short 2663 is still holding on with 6pm trade signal 2595. It means, buy if cpo futures is closed above 2595 at 6pm today.
(11/10 s2663) Buy if cpo futures is closed above 2585 at 6pm today. Otherwise, hold on the short 2663. The short 2663 has finally taken profit and turned long 2615 at 6pm today.
(12/10 L2615) Accumulated profit is raised to 440 ticks per contract size basis after turning long 2615 at 6pm close yesterday with 31 stop and reverse trades in total. We will update the 12pm6pm trade signal later today. Sell if 6pm close below 2587.
(13/10 L2615) We will see a sell signal if 6pm is closed below 2594, otherwise hold on the long 2615. 3 important palm oil analysts are in Malaysia to have their speeches in the afternoon.
(14/10 L2615) Sell if 12pm below 2592. Sell if 6pm below 2594. Otherwise, hold on the long 2615.
(19/10 L2615) The long 2615 saw a good profit at 2800 yesterday. Sell if 6pm is closed below 2654 today.
(20/10 L2615) Sell if 6pm is closed below 2675.
(21/10 L2615) We have 12pm6pm signals at 2684 and 2693 respectively today which is meant the indicator will sell once 12pm below 2684 or wait and sell once 6pm is closed below 2693 today.
(24/10 L2615) The long 2615 will only do stop and reverse sell if 6pm is closed below 2700 at 6pm today.
(25/10 L2615) Sell if 6pm is closed below 2718.
(26/10 L2615) Sell if 12pm is last traded 2734 or lower. Sell if 6pm is closed below 2745.
(27/10 L2615) Sell if 12pm is below 2753, or else wait for 6pm trade signal. Sell if 6pm is closed below 2754.
(28/10 L2615) Another one more trading day and we will go to new post. Will the long 2615 be kept holding on for November plan? Sell if 6pm is closed below 2757 today.
(31/10 l2615) We will see a sell signal if cpo futures is closed below 2766 at 6pm today. We will publish the new stop and reverse trade signal in a new post for the November trading plan.

We had finally got a sell signal at 6pm at 2764 on the last day of October. It therefore generated a profit of 149 ticks against the long 2615, accumulating profit is now 589 ticks.

October Trading Plan And The Featured Post - 3

2016-09-15T17:35:00.002+08:00

As we have no intention to write new post repeating the probable same stop and reverse trade signals at 12pm 6pm technical trend indicator, readers traders are advised to come back to the same post in finding the 12pm 6pm trading signals.

Therefore, we hereby give a name for the technical trend indicator - Indicator 12pm6pm. It is not the same technical trend indicator in the Featured Post.

We will post all the stop and reverse trade signals in this post with dates for readers traders to refer until end of this September before starting a new post. Thus, just come back to this post for all the updates.

(19/9 update for 6pm) - Cut Loss Turn Buy if 6pm is closed above 2609. Change of contract month is definitely a headache issue. The short 2589 has an artificial profit of 30 over tick due to change of contract month from November to December where December is traded lower and therefore it is making artificial floating profit of 30 ticks in the continuous 3rd active contract month chart of cpo futures. However, cpo futures has actually traded above 2600 on November contract and big losses will happen for the short 2589. Let's wait and see how much is the damage for 12pm6pm indicator when the stop and reverse trade signal is triggered.
(19/9 AMENDED update for 6pm) - Cut loss turn buy if 6pm is closed above 2605 without taking into consideration on any unforeseen circumstances. No doubt the 12pm6pm indicator had cut loss turned long already at 12pm today if there was no change of contract month November to December, we will still systematically follow the continuous 3rd contract month chart and used December contract month since the morning trading session that was traded below 2605.
(20/9 update Long 2643) - November 2692 and December 2643 close was a painful stop and reverse trade signal being triggered at 6pm yesterday after seeing change of contract month and widening spread in November December. The short 2589 was cut loss at 2692 in November contract and initiated a buy 2643 in December contract. Theoretical loss was 54 ticks (2589-2643) but the ACTUAL losses was 103 ticks (2589-2692). We will start looking at the long 2643 from now on with the 12pm6pm indicator's guide where its stop and reverse sell trade signal is very low today at 2545 or lower (without any unforeseen circumstances). Accumulated profits has theoretically dropped to 372 ticks.
(21/9 update Long 2643) - Sell if 12pm below 2612. The stop and reverse sell signal is adjusted much higher now and we will update 6pm trade signal here also after 12pm today. Sell if 6pm below 2624 today, otherwise hold on the long 2643. It is much lower than the current price 2708 at 1230pm.
(22/9 update for Long 2643) - Sell if 12pm below 2630 or sell if 6pm below 2635 without taking into any unforeseen circumstances, and may have to be adjusted accordingly based on a systematical approach. Otherwise, hold on the long 2643.
(23/9 update for long 2643) - Sell if 12pm below 2641 or sell if 6pm below 2647. Again, this is without taking into any unforeseen circumstances based on the systematical approach.
(26/9 update for long 2643) - Sell if 12pm below 2648. We had seen the highest 2729 after the long 2643. We will only update 6pm trade signal after 12pm today. We will see a sell signal if 6pm is closed 2655 or else hold on the long again. This is the last trading week for September.
(27/9 update for Long 2643) - Sell if 12pm below 2661. Sell if 6pm below 2667. Otherwise, hold on the long 2643.
At 6pm close just now (27/9), the 12pm6pm indicator hit a sell signal at 2663, making 20 ticks against it long 2643. We will focus on the short 2663 tomorrow.
(28/9 update for Short 2663) - The accumulated profit had been raised to 392 ticks in 30 stop and reverse trades after turned sell 2663 at 6pm yesterday. Buy if 12pm is traded above 2673 or else hold on the short 2663 and wait for 6pm trade signal which we will update it after 12pm today. Again, the trade signal is based on a systematical approach without taking into any unforeseen circumstances. 6pm trade signal - cut loss turn long if cpo is closed above 2677.
(29/9 update for short 2663) - The short 2663 will cut loss turn long if 6pm cpo futures is only closed above 2675. We will probably see the short 2663 carry forward to October but let's wait for another one more day before we start the new post.
(30/9 update for short 2663) - It is believed that the profit or loss for short 2663 will be carried forward to October as the stop and reverse buy signal is high today. 2774 for 12pm and 2668 for 6pm without taking into any unforeseen circumstances. Last accumulated profit was 392 ticks when the 12pm6pm indicator turned selling 2663.

October Trading Plan And The Featured Post - 2

2016-09-15T12:38:00.001+08:00

There is no use to talk about how much a technical trend indicator can make in its accumulated profits if traders cannot take the heat of multiple losing trades. As shown in the precious post, the accumulated profit of 426 ticks per contract size basis may not be as good as others, it it perhaps a good start for new readers traders to learn on how to systematically follow a technical trend indicator.

28 stop and reverse trades in last 8 months or less than 4 trades per month will seriously test traders' patient in such a volatile market. (No doubt it is not a complete table here, we wish readers traders do learn in data collection which is the most important for trading success.)

We are writing and focusing on multiple losing trades again that will most probably occur in the next three months on cpo futures. Readers traders must learn to cope the pressure of multiple losing trades if they are seriously interested to use technical trend indicators.

Here is the simple table for readers traders to follow with the 426 ticks accumulated profits:

	date	time	Price	s/L	426
	19/2/2016	18	2585	s
1	7/3/2016	12	2538	L	47
2	31/3/2016	18	2721	s	183
3	1/4/2016	12	2760	L	-39
4	4/4/2016	12	2729	s	-31
5		18	2773	L	-44
6	6/4/2016	12	2727	s	-46
7	19/4/2016	12	2685	L	42
8	25/4/2016	12	2670	s	-15
9	5/5/2016	18	2633	L	37
10	6/5/2016	12	2588	s	-45
11		18	2630	L	-42
12	13/5/2016	12	2588	s	-42
13	25/5/2016	18	2546	L	42
14	7/6/2016	18	2597	s	51
15	4/7/2016	12	2391	L	206
16	5/7/2016	12	2359	s	-32
17	15/7/2016	18	2281	L	78
18	25/7/2016	18	2269	s	-12
19	26/7/2016	18	2309	L	-40
20	28/7/2016	12	2307	s	-2
21	29/7/2016	12	2323	L	-16
22	29/7/2016	18	2316	s	-7
23	2/8/2016	12	2331	L	-15
24	22/8/2016	18	2542	s	211
25	23/8/2016	18	2577	L	-35
26	25/8/2016	12	2558	s	-19
27	2/9/2016	12	2568	L	-10
28	13/9/2016	18	2589	s	21

October Trading Plan And The Featured Post - 1

2016-09-14T13:08:00.000+08:00

As we plan to write some updates for readers traders between October and December 2016 as what we did for the past few years and we will therefore insert "The Stop And Reverse Trade Signals For Year 2016" write-up in the Featured Post for easy reference. Readers traders just go to the Featured Post to find up what is the latest update if needed.

We will try our best again to publish stop and reverse trade signals in advance for readers traders in this coming 3 months based on another technical trend indicator that is different from the technical trend indicator in the Featured Post.

Readers traders only need to check yourselves the last traded cpo futures price at 12pm and 6pm respectively against the stop and reverse trade signals published in advance by us.

For example, we will publish a post at 1030am saying a technical trend indicator will show a sell signal at 12pm if cpo futures price is last traded below 2600 at the 12pm time. It is one over hour in advance for readers traders to feel and see what will be the next move. (Just for record, the technical trend indicator turned selling 2589 at 6pm yesterday, generating accumulated profits 426 ticks in 28 stop and reverse trades since the beginning of year 2016.)

We wish to apologize in advance if we fail to publish a stop and reverse trade signal in advance due to unforeseen circumstances.

Remember - data collection, fear and greed, multiple losing trades in achieving trading success!

Be a disciplined trader.

The Stop And Reverse Trade Signals For Year 2016

2016-01-20T12:16:00.000+08:00

This is about a plan in publishing the stop and reverse trade signals for the whole year 2016 without giving a single comment and also without taking into any unforeseen circumstances. They will be "much" delayed trade signals but may probably help our 101indicators traders to have their own mind-mapping trading rhythms and soul searching for the right disciplines in finding out their most comfortable technical trend indicators.

As you could see in the last THREE months in year 2014 and year 2015 where we wrote the stop and reverse trade signals using different technical trend indicators, we will try our very best in doing the same for the whole full year in 2016 for readers traders to digest on a technical trend indicator but no updated comments. Read the old posts to familiarize yourselves about our write-ups.

Just keep coming back to see whether we post up any trade signal in finding the right momentum or not.

Remember - data collection, fear and greed, multiple losing trades in achieving trading success! Be a disciplined trader. You must have lifelong interest in the market observation on CPO Futures if you wish to be 101indicators traders, Take your time on IDEA it, MODEL it and followed by ANALYSE it then TEST it and FINE TUNE it.

The Stop And Reverse Trade Signals For Year 2016 for a technical trend indicator with ALL the longs and shorts will be published here (expectation: 50 to 70 stop and reverse trades):

Long 2426 +39 (against the short in December 2015)
Short 2434 +8
Long 2455 -21
Short 2361 +7
Long 2475 -14
Short 2585 +110
Long 2564 +21
Short 2533 "-31"
Long 2535 -2
Short 2523 -12
Long 2549 -26
Short 2542 -7
Long 2562 -20 (total 6 multiple losing trades)
Short 2657 +95
Long 2687 -30 (end 1st Quarter +117 ticks)

Short 2723 +36
Long 2688 "+35"
Short 2697 +9
Long 2622 +75
Short 2595 -27
Long 2611 -16
Short 2650 +39 (20/5 update: hit 400 ticks target level?!)
Long 2558 +92 (26/5 update: accumulated 360 ticks only.)
Short 2603 +45 (30/6 update: end 2nd Quarter +288 ticks)

Long 2398 +205 (4/7 update: biggest profit of the year!)
Short 2374 -24 (5/7 update: will multiple losing trades start?!)
Long 2294 +80 (18/7 update: good profit.)
Short 2264 -30 (19/7 update: losing trade.)
Long 2300 -36 (19/7 update: 2 losing trades in 1 day.)
Short 2304 +4
Long 2307 -3
Short 2288 -19
Long 2320 -32 (29/7 update: 3 bad trades!)
Short 2313 -7 (2/8 update: 4 multiple losing trades now!)
Long 2346 -33 (2/8 update: 5th Multiple Losing Trade!)
Short 2531 +185 (22/8 update: 101indicators Hit 800 ticks much earlier!!!)
Long 2578 -47 (23/8 update: losing trade.)
Short 2561 -17 (25/8 update: 2nd losing trade.)
Long 2551 +10 (2/9 update: take a look at Featured Post.)
Short 2566 +15 (14/9 update: painful loss of good profit!)
Long 2582 -16 (15/9 update: losing trade.)
Short 2682 +100 (23/9 update: good trade.)
Long 2725 -43 (26/9 update: bad trade.)
Short 2700 -25 (27/9 update: 2nd losing trade. 4/10 update: end 3rd Quarter +267 ticks)

Long 2607 +93 (11/10 update: good start for Q4?)
Short 2695 +88 (21/10 Mission Accomplished. 100% yearly rate of return with over 800 ticks accumulated profits per contract size basis since the beginning of Year 2016. Stop Here After Working Hard For 10 months!!!???)
Long 2710 -15 (21/10. It was the Last signal in October. We will ONLY list down all November signals when time is right for record purposes. Apologize for not updating them on time.)
Short 2749 +39 (1/11)
Long 2762 -13 (2/11)
Short 2746 -16 (4/11)
Long 2774 -28 (7/11)
Short 3084 +310 (9/12 update: BEST result for this year.)
Long 3100 -16 (13/12)
Short 3130 +30 (20/12)
Long 3112 +18 (27/12)
Short 3101 -11 (29/12) [~~CLOSE BOOK?~~]
Long 3119 -18 (30/12). It is the end for the update. 4th Quarter +461 ticks.

Year 2016 Accumulated Profit and Loss = 117+288+267+461 = ~~405~~ ~~672~~ 1133 ticks from 24 44 57(15+9+20+13) stop and reverse trades as at the end of ~~30/6/2016~~ ~~30/9/2016~~ 30/12/2016 (~~will only be updated after the first quarter~~ or sum it up yourselves from the above longs and shorts).

Note: this is a computerized model of trading strategy NOT making own calls trading strategy. We will write more updates and announce it here in due course.

(On 22/8 update, as we know the rollover might generate more profit but it was never be recorded in the system. Traders can see the previous long 2346 on 2/8 was October contract month against the short 2531 on 22/8 was November contract month. This is because we wish to have a systematical data collection year after year.)

Go to cpyeoh blog for the explanation by clicking HERE.

The Summary Of 101indicators Yearly Performance 2015

2015-12-31T10:06:00.000+08:00

This year is a drubbing year for one technical trend indicator under the data collection of 101indicators On Futures Trading with over 150 (amendment : 118 not 150) stop and reverse trade signals. It generates less than 30% yearly rate of return based on the $20,000 risk capital ratio.

One interesting observation... the last 3 years in a row, every last quarter, the Q4, hit with red. In year 2013, the Q4 incurred 121 ticks of losses. In year 2014, the Q4 incurred 60 ticks of losses. In this year 2015, the Q4 incurred over 200 ticks of losses ( ~~if no sell signal today~~! ). Year 2013 was a moderate year but 2014 was a good year, and readers traders can find the results in the old posts since profit is not an important issue to discuss here.

With a conservative $20,000 risk capital per contract size basis as mentioned in this blog, the 220 ticks losses in November would make traders facing more than 25% losses from the risk capital. There was one technical trend indicator incurred total 439 ticks losses in two months (October and November), and it had more than 50% losses from the $20,000 risk capital. How will readers traders feel if you only use $10,000 as risk capital? Fear not and still Greed?

No doubt they all generated profits when we summarized them from the monthly accumulated profit and loss table, can readers traders follow them year after year? One of technical trend indicators that made more than 1200 ticks this year but what about previous years and next year 2016 onwards?

Last but not least, we have done our best in this CPO Futures blog by telling readers traders about data collection, fear and greed, and the most important technical jargon... Multiple Losing Trades. This is more important than profit because once you are able to manage your losses, you will have no worry on profits in accumulating wealth as long as your technical trend indicators have proven yearly track records.

Recap: technical trend trading is 30/70 game that is less than 30 percent profit trades while more than 70 percent losing trades that can really stress traders. Thus, can you take such a pressure especially on the 70% losing trades or even more?

Happy And Prosperous New Year 2016.

Trading Plan 16th to 31st December 2015

2015-12-15T18:13:00.000+08:00

Is historical chart pattern always repeating itself?

Source: Telequote CPO Futures Monthly Chart

Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but all technical trend indicators back-testing depend on the past performance data can find future results??? Will you believe it???

Tell your broker (just joking!!!) - This year is a broker's year since you have probably generated a lot of stop and reverse trades for him/her than what you have made. It is believed that the brokerage has taken more than half of the profit.

We will publish the yearly performance on the last trading day of December 2015 while this post is for the December 2015.

Just keep coming back to this post as we will only publish new stop and reverse trade signals in this post only.

We have an "artificial" over 70 ticks spread, and profit that will not be recorded in the Monthly Accumulated Profit and Loss data due to the change of contract month! So, just take it for shopping like what we mentioned in November! It can also be the bonus for year 2015 with over 100 ticks in total for 2 months!

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We will just publish the stop and reverse trade signals here in this two weeks without any comments, be them delayed trade signals or not:

December's stop and reverse trade signals:

1st - Sell 2330 profit 30 ticks (2/12/2015, off 2375 highest)
2st - Long 2343 loss 13 ticks (3/12/2015, off 2317 lowest)
3rd - Sell 2358 profit 15 ticks (10/12/2015, off 2438 highest)
4th - Long 2396 loss 38 ticks (11/12/2015, off 2350 lowest)
5th - Sell 2394 loss 2 ticks (15/12/2015, off 2442 highest)
6th - Long 2426 loss 32 ticks (16/12/2015, off 2324 lowest, 50 ticks Go Shopping!)
7th - Sell 2379 loss 47 ticks (17/12/2015, off 2431 highest)
8th - Long 2389 loss 10 ticks (18/12/2015, off 2369 lowest)
9th - Sell 2384 loss 5 ticks (18/12/2015, off 2390 highest)
10th - Long 2391 loss 7 ticks (18/12/2015, off 2379 lowest)
~~(if there is no sell signal at 31/12/2015, the profit and loss of Long 2391 will only be recorded in year 2016.)~~

Monthly Accumulated P & L @ -109 ticks per contract size basis (as of 2389 price).

Trading Plan 1st to 15th December 2015

2015-12-01T09:43:00.001+08:00

As we do not wish to keep publishing new posts in this December as what readers traders could read in the previous two over months, we will probably write TWO posts for all the stop and reverse trade signals and the profit and loss table for December before summarizing the performance for year 2015.

Remember the data collection, fear and greed, multiple losing trades? Be it a delayed stop and reverse trade signals given in this blog based on the 101indicators trading guides, we wish all readers traders have good learning experience from this CPO Futures Blog that we have tried our very best to tell you in finding a trading rhythm for yourselves while searching for trading success from technical trend indicators.

Just keep coming back to this post as we will only publish new updates in this post only.

We will post all the December stop and reverse trade signals at the bottom in this post. One thing for sure, we have the worst monthly accumulated profit and loss data in November and probably also for the yearly performance especially since the 2008 crisis.

So, let's wait and see what will be the result when the year 2015 is over!

The long 2300 in November, as mentioned in the previous post, will have its stop and reverse trade in December and therefore the profit and loss will be recorded in December only.

Focus on the long 2300 until we see the next stop and reverse sell trade signal.

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(3/12/2015 @ 1135pm ) The short 2330 cut loss turn long 2343 and therefore we have the 2nd stop and reverse trade signal now as readers traders can see below.

(8/12/2015 @ 1115am) The long 2343 had reached the high 2438 yesterday and we do not have any stop and reverse sell trade signal yet. Thus, just holding on the long 2343 until you see the next trade signal that will be given at the bottom of this post.

(8/12/2015 @ 505pm) If cpo futures price is closed below 2377 at 6pm, the long 2343 will have to do a stop and reverse sell trade. Let's wait and see what is the closing price!

(9/12/2015 @ 225pm) The long 2343 is having stop and reverse sell trade signal higher and higher since it did not turn sell signal at 6pm yesterday. We will only post the new stop and reverse sell trade signal once we have it, or else, we will put an early trade figures before the 6pm close for readers traders to digest.

(9/12/2015 @ 5pm) Sell if 6pm close below 2384 which mean the long 2343 have to take profit turn sell if cpo futures price is closed 2383 or lower at 6pm in about one hour time from now.

(10/12/2015 @ 1133am) We have the 3rd stop and reverse trade signal. The long 2343 had finally turned sell signal at 2358, off from the highest level 2438.

(10/12/2015 @ 255pm) MPOB November production 1.653mt, stock 2.908mt, export 1.499mt as compared to MPOB October production 2.037mt, stock 2.834mt, export 1.712mt.

(11/12/2015 @ 1135am) We had the 4th stop and reverse trade signal and it is a losing trade. Focus on the long 2396 now.

source: RHB report on MPOB data

(15/12/2015 @ 925am) Today is the last day for this post and we will start a new post tomorrow for the second half for December trading. We will copy the stop and reverse trade signals to the new post too.

Change of contract month with big gap is always an issue but we will no longer discuss it again, new readers traders are advised to read those old posts in finding the story on big gap on contract months.

(15/12/2015 @ 1135am) We have the 5th stop and reverse trade signal today. Just read the below stop and reverse trade signals.

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December's stop and reverse trade signals:

1st - Sell 2330 profit 30 ticks (2/12/2015, off 2375 highest)
2st - Long 2343 loss 13 ticks (3/12/2015, off 2317 lowest)
3rd - Sell 2358 profit 15 ticks (10/12/2015, off 2438 highest)
4th - Long 2396 loss 38 ticks (11/12/2015, off 2350 lowest)
5th - Sell 2394 loss 2 ticks (15/12/2015, off 2442 highest)

Monthly Accumulated P & L @ -8 ticks per contract size basis (as of the short 2394).

Last Trading Day Of November 2015

2015-11-30T09:55:00.002+08:00

As what we did in the last trading day of October 2015, we wish to list down again in the last trading day of November 2015 for readers traders to digest and keep them as a reference for future researches.

Here is the table of Long and Short with profit and loss based on per contract size basis, and we will amend it again if there is a stop and reverse trade signal at the end of 6pm Monday today.


SAR	s/L	Price	P&L	Notes
1	s	2328	-34	Oct trade recorded in Nov.
2	L	2345	-17	Multiple Losing Trades !!!
3	s	2345	0	Multiple Losing Trades !!!
4	L	2362	-17	Multiple Losing Trades !!!
5	s	2345	-17	Multiple Losing Trades !!!
6	L	2330	15	Exclude the extra 50 ticks rollover bonus!
7	s	2306	-24	Multiple Losing Trades !!!
8	L	2319	-13	Multiple Losing Trades !!!
9	s	2281	-38	Multiple Losing Trades !!!
10	L	2301	-20	Multiple Losing Trades !!!
11	s	2283	-18	Multiple Losing Trades !!!
12	L	2299	-16	Multiple Losing Trades !!!
13	s	2289	-10	Multiple Losing Trades !!!
14	L	2300	-11	Multiple Losing Trades !!!

Don't be afraid to follow technical trend trading if you have done your homework well - data collection.

Don't be afraid and shy to find all the losses since you need to know how much losses you may face, such a big pressure, especially in multiple losing trades - enjoy the fear and greed!

After making a stop and reverse trade, please sit down and sit tight, read and read again, think and think again then write down all important words in your diary - especially multiple losing trades!

Keep doing your data collection year after year and you will find something good in technical trend trading system.

What is the monthly accumulated profit for the month of November? Calculate yourselves from the above table. Answer is.....................220 ticks of losses if there is no stop and reverse trade on Monday today!!!

Focus the long 2300 which we believe that it will most likely be carried forward to December, and its profit and loss will only be recorded in December too, not in November.

Read the page xi in the 101indicators On Futures Trading book.

11th Indonesia Palm Oil Conference And Price Outlook

2015-11-27T17:13:00.000+08:00

By Adam Martin BALI, Indonesia--If the weather phenomenon known as El Nino continues into the second quarter of 2016 as predicted, palm-oil output in Indonesia could fall by 9% and production could be down by 4.5% in Malaysia, an influential market-watcher said Friday. At best, palm-oil production is likely to be flat on year in 2016 even if weather conditions return to normal by the end of 2015, said James Fry, chairman at research firm LMC International. If production remains flat and if Brent crude sits at around $45 a barrel then palm oil cash prices should be above $600 a ton by the end of first quarter 2016, and by June should be between $50 and $75 higher, he said. But if El Nino plays out as predicted, with drought conditions remaining into the second quarter of 2016, then prices could reach $800 a ton and the "world would have to rely on soy oil to fill some of the shortfall in crude palm oil supplies," Mr. Fry said. Palm-oil futures have recovered from lows seen in August, on concerns that dry conditions brought about by El Nino and haze from forest fires could reduce production over the coming months. On Thursday, refined, bleached and deodorized crude palm oil for February was trading in the cash market at $567.50 a ton. International climate models suggest that the El Nino is approaching its peak and will decrease in the first quarter 2016. However, water temperatures in the Pacific are unlikely to return to normal until the southern hemisphere's autumn begins in March, according to Australia's Bureau of Meteorology. Write to Adam.Martin@wsj.com Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires

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By Lucy Craymer BALI, Indonesia--There is currently no shortage of palm oil stocks "but this is going to change very quickly" and prices could rise more than 20%, said Thomas Mielke, a widely regarded commentator in the industry. Palm oil prices could rise to $750 to $770 a ton as supply tightens, said Mr. Mielke, an executive of researcher Oil World, at the 11th Indonesian Palm Oil Conference. Crude palm oil prices for February were trading around $567.50 a ton Thursday. "For people who are waiting for falls in production--which are reported with a delay--run the risk of being too late...Supplies are not going to tighten until the January quarter but then they are going to tighten quickly," he said. Palm oil production will likely stagnate in Indonesia and contract slightly in Malaysia, by 200,000 metric tons, as dry conditions related to El Niño put oil palms under significant stress, Mr. Mielke said. He forecasts Indonesia will produce 33.6 million metric tons in 2015. It will be very difficult to meet the import demands from India, which is growing rapidly, along with the rest of the world, and this should put pressure on prices, he added. Write to Lucy Craymer at lucy.craymer@wsj.com Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires

November 14th Stop And Reverse Trade

2015-11-24T17:16:00.005+08:00

Will we have 14 stop and reverse trade signals with 12 losing trades that can seriously break traders' necks at 6pm close today!

Buy if 6pm is closed 2295 or higher. (about 45 minutes from now!)

Gross monthly accumulated losses per contract size basis for November has another new high for this year it is a buy signal at 6pm!

Feel the fear? If not, please read this - How Many Stop And Reverse Trades In 3 Months

1st - Sell 2328 loss 34 ticks
2nd - Buy 2345 loss 17 ticks
3rd - Sell 2345 break-even (still a loss)
4th - Buy 2362 loss 17 ticks
5th - Sell 2345 loss 17 ticks
6th - Buy 2330 profit 15 ticks (extra 50 ticks bonus from rollover! Go shopping :) !!!)
7th - Sell 2306 loss 24 ticks
8th - Buy 2319 loss 13 ticks
9th - Sell 2281 loss 38 ticks
10th - Buy 2301 loss 20 ticks
11th - Sell 2283 loss 18 ticks
12th - Buy 2299 loss 16 ticks
13th - Sell 2289 loss 10 ticks

Focus on the short 2289 now unless the next stop and reverse buy trade signal is triggered at 6pm today as mentioned above.

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(6pm write-up) Will we stop at 13 stop and reverse trade signal in this November? Short 2289 is holding on.

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(25/11/2015 @ 525pm write-up) The short 2289 will have to do a stop and reverse buy trade if cpo futures price is closed 2289 or higher at 6pm later today.

If it is triggered, it will be the 14th stop and reverse trade signal.

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(25/11/2015 @ 6pm write-up) We have the 14th stop and reverse trade signal!!! It is a long at 2300.

14th - Buy 2300 loss 11 ticks.

November 13th Stop And Reverse Trade

2015-11-24T12:37:00.002+08:00

13 stop and reverse trade signals with only one profit trade and one break-even trade for November as of today's morning trading session.

209 ticks of gross monthly accumulated losses per contract size basis for November.

$5,225 in value of gross losses for the month of November. The biggest record!?

1st - Sell 2328 loss 34 ticks
2nd - Buy 2345 loss 17 ticks
3rd - Sell 2345 break-even (still a loss)
4th - Buy 2362 loss 17 ticks
5th - Sell 2345 loss 17 ticks
6th - Buy 2330 profit 15 ticks (extra 50 ticks bonus from rollover! Go shopping :) !!!)
7th - Sell 2306 loss 24 ticks
8th - Buy 2319 loss 13 ticks
9th - Sell 2281 loss 38 ticks
10th - Buy 2301 loss 20 ticks
11th - Sell 2283 loss 18 ticks
12th - Buy 2299 loss 16 ticks
13th - Sell 2289 loss 10 ticks

Focus on the short 2289 now until the next stop and reverse trade signal is published.

November 12th Stop And Reverse Trade

2015-11-24T11:31:00.001+08:00

This is a fantastic month to see such a multiple losing trades hitting technical trend traders in following the short term trading methodology.

Here is the new stop and reverse trade signal with previous updates:

1st - Sell 2328 loss 34 ticks
2nd - Buy 2345 loss 17 ticks
3rd - Sell 2345 break-even (still a loss)
4th - Buy 2362 loss 17 ticks
5th - Sell 2345 loss 17 ticks
6th - Buy 2330 profit 15 ticks (extra 50 ticks bonus from rollover! Go shopping :) !!!)
7th - Sell 2306 loss 24 ticks
8th - Buy 2319 loss 13 ticks
9th - Sell 2281 loss 38 ticks
10th - Buy 2301 loss 20 ticks
11th - Sell 2283 loss 18 ticks
12th - Buy 2299 loss 16 ticks - Here is the Focus now.

So, how much is the total monthly accumulated profit and loss?

Getting the fear to follow the long 2299! Still have your greed!

Keep doing your data collection.

Please read this - How Many Stop And Reverse Trades In 3 Months

We already have 16 in October and 12 now in November.