Sabato's Crystal Ball https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ Political analysis and the most accurate election predictions in the nation from Larry Sabato and his Crystal Ball team. Wed, 18 Jun 2025 16:12:08 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.5 https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/cropped-cropped-CFP_LogoDraft_RGB_Favicon-3-32x32.png Sabato's Crystal Ball https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ 32 32 Friends, Neighbors, and Unfriendly Neighbors in Virginia’s Wild Democratic Statewide Primaries https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2025virginiademprimary/ Wed, 18 Jun 2025 16:11:33 +0000 https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/?p=27398 Recapping the wild Democratic statewide Virginia primaries and looking ahead to the fall

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]]> Excerpt from “Campaign of Chaos”: How Narrative Trumped Ideas in 2024 https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/excerpt-from-campaign-of-chaos-how-narrative-trumped-ideas-in-2024/ Wed, 18 Jun 2025 15:50:04 +0000 https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/?p=27390 An excerpt from our forthcoming book on the 2024 election

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]]> Notes on the State of Politics: New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Set, Texas Redistricting? https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-new-jersey-gubernatorial-race-set-texas-redistricting/ Wed, 11 Jun 2025 14:40:25 +0000 https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/?p=27378 It's Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli in the NJ governor race, and the prospect of a new House map in Texas is a hugely important story to watch

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]]> Excerpt from the Almanac of American Politics: A Political Tour of Chicago https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/excerpt-from-the-almanac-of-american-politics-a-political-tour-of-chicago/ Thu, 05 Jun 2025 04:01:55 +0000 https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/?p=27348 In this excerpt from the forthcoming 2026 Almanac of American Politics, Louis Jacobson takes us on a political tour of Chicago

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]]> Rating Changes: Iowa Senate, ME-2, and More https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/rating-changes-iowa-senate-me-2-and-more/ Tue, 03 Jun 2025 20:04:16 +0000 https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/?p=27355 We are making four rating changes this week—one in the Senate and three in the House—with two races getting better for Democrats and two getting better for Republicans.

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