CSharp's Point of View

NBA Playoff Picks for 4/21

2011-04-21T12:48:00.002-04:00

I unfortunately jinxed myself yesterday by posting my COVERS.COM streak. The first period of the CAPS/RANGERS game went as planned with a 0-0 score after 1. However, thanks to 2 goals occurring less than 10 seconds apart in the second, and the CAPS deciding to score 3 in the 3rd, the streak is no more.

My picks for tonight’s NBA Playoffs are as follows:

champs311 picks DAL@POR, POR u186 and says: Under is 19-7 in Mavericks last 26 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Under is 8-1-1 in Mavericks last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 7-2 in Mavericks last 9 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 9-3 in Trail Blazers last 12 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 18-8 in Trail Blazers last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. (100)

champs311 picks DAL@POR, DAL +5.5 and says: Mavericks are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Mavericks are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as a road underdog. Mavericks are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite. (200)

champs311 picks MIA@PHI, PHI u186 and says: Under is 6-0 in 76ers last 6 playoff games as an underdog. Under is 12-4 in 76ers last 16 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. Under is 18-7-1 in Heat last 26 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Under is 16-5 in Heat last 21 games following a S.U. win (100)

champs311 picks MIA@PHI, MIA -4.5 and says: Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. Heat are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5. # # 76ers are 8-27-3 ATS in their last 38 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5. 76ers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 2 days rest. (200)

champs311 picks CHI@IND, CHI o189 and says: Over is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 6-2 in Bulls last 8 games as a road favorite. Over is 15-5-1 in Pacers last 21 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5. Over is 33-16-2 in Pacers last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. (100)

champs311 picks CHI@IND, CHI -4.5 and says: Bulls are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. Bulls are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games following a ATS loss. Bulls are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Pacers are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. Pacers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 2 days rest. (200)

My Statistics
Sport	Overall Record	Overall Record %	Rating Points	Last 20	ATS	O/U
NBA	96-74	56%	6400	9-11	49-38	47-36

NBA Playoff Picks 4/20

2011-04-20T17:07:00.002-04:00

04-20-11	NBA	DEN at OKC	DEN +4.5	200	Nuggets are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Nuggets are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog.
04-20-11	NBA	DEN at OKC	DEN o206	100	Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Oklahoma City.
04-20-11	NBA	MEM at SAN	MEM +8.5	100	Grizzlies are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog. Grizzlies are 44-19 ATS in their last 63 games overall. Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
04-20-11	NBA	MEM at SAN	MEM o196	200	Over is 7-1 in Grizzlies last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Over is 7-1 in Spurs last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in San Antonio.
04-20-11	NBA	NOH at LAL	NOH +11.5	200	Hornets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. Lakers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. Underdog is 15-4 ATS in the last 19 meetings. Hornets are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Los Angeles.
04-20-11	NBA	NOH at LAL	LAL u187.5	100	Under is 12-3 in Lakers last 15 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater. Under is 29-12 in Hornets last 41 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Lucky #13

2011-04-20T13:47:00.000-04:00

Switching gears for this post with my BIG PICK OF THE NIGHT.

Besides making picks on the NBA, I watch all the lines and the ones that stick out I pick. COVERS.COM just like PROVEN PLAYS allows you to pick sports games and track your percentages. The thing I like about COVERS is that you can join contests as well and win prizes based on your performance. For instance, they have a contest called Streak Survivor, where you pick a spread or point total from a particular list of games. The goal is to see how many picks in a row you can achieve without getting one wrong. If you happen to miss a pick then you just start back at 0 and continue your streak again. AND its FREE!

Need more incentive to join other than it’s free?

Well if you can get….

9 wins in a row gets you a COVERS hat.

13 wins gets you a COVERS Sweatshirt.

Looking for cash instead?

17 wins in a row equals $1,000

21 wins in a row equals $25,000

25 wins in a row equals $100,000

Unfortunately the odds are not in our favor of taking home the cash:

(Based on a 50% chance of making the correct pick)

9 wins in a row = 1 in 512

13 wins in a row = 1 in 8,192

17 wins in a row = 1 in 131,072

21 wins in a row = 1 in 2,097,152

25 wins in a row = 1 in 33,554,432

But that is what gambling is all about taking a chance and letting it ride.

Thank you got what it takes to take home the cash?

You can join here if you like:

http://contests.covers.com/SportsContests/survivor/index.aspx

My SN: Champs311

I am currently riding a 12 game win streak. Hopefully #13 tonight.

My pick for tonight is the UNDER in the CAPS/RANGERS game tonight.

Trends I like in this game

Under is 49-13-2 in Capitals last 64 overall

Under is 16-5 in Capitals last 21 games playing on 2 days rest

Under is 19-6-1 in Capitals last 26 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.

Under is 46-18-4 in Rangers last 68 games as an underdog

Under is 52-24-7 in Rangers last 83 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game

Under is 47-22-5 in Rangers last 74 games following a win.

Odds I pick this game correctly are 1 in 8,192.

Wish me luck!

NBA Playoff Picks - April 18th

2011-04-18T13:30:00.001-04:00

Yesterday I didn't feel so hot about my picks and looks like my intuition was correct (1-5).

However that is behind us. If you remember back when I went 14-2, I followed that up with a 1-5 performance. But what did I do on my next stretch? 6-2! I look to bounce back tonight as well. I feel very good about all my picks especially the spread in the CHI/IND game (hint the 500 point rating).

Eastern Conference Game 2

Philadelphia vs. Miami - TIP-OFF 7PM

Miami leads series 1-0

previous game MIA 97-89

champs311 picks PHI@MIA, PHI +9.5 and says: PHI is 5-1 ATS last 6 as the playoff underdog. PHI is 24-11-1 ATS last 36 playing on 1 days rest. MIA is 4-11 ATS last 15 when playing at home and favored between 5 and 11. MIA is 1-6 ATS last 7 Conference Quarterfinal Games. (200)

champs311 picks PHI@MIA, MIA u189 and says: UNDER is 5-0 last 5 when PHI was the playoff dog. UNDER is 6-0 last 6 for PHI following a straight up loss. UNDER is 5-0 last 5 for MIA following a straight up win. UNDER is 14-5-1 last 20 when MIA faces a team with a losing record. (200)

My trends for PHI and MIA:

Team	Overall	Points	ATS	Over/Under
Miami	9-1	1500	4-0	5-1
Philadelphia	8-3	600	5-1	3-2
Total	17-4	2100	9-1	8-3

Eastern Conference Game 2

Indiana vs. Chicago - TIP-OFF 9:30PM

Chicago leads series 1-0

previous game CHI 104-99

champs311 picks IND@CHI, IND +12 and says: IND is 11-1 ATS last 12 as the underdog by more than 11 points. IND is 17-8 on 1 day of rest. CHI is 0-4 ATS last 11 when favored by 11 or more. BEST STAT OF THE NIGHT: The referees for the game tonight are a combined 21-7 ATS when going with the road dog of more than 10 points. (500)

champs311 picks IND@CHI, CHI u193 and says: UNDER is 8-3 last 11 when IND was the dog by more than 11. UNDER is 10-4 last 14 when CHI allowed 100 or more in their previous game. (200)

My trends for IND and CHI:

Team	Overall	Points	ATS	Over/Under
Chicago	6-6	0	2-5	4-1
Indiana	4-4	-100	3-2	1-2
Total	10-10	-100	5-7	5-3

http://provenplays.com/PublicProfile.aspx?Profile=champs311

Lets start this week off with a BANG!

NBA Playoff Picks Part 2 April 17th

2011-04-17T11:45:00.000-04:00

Great start to the playoffs yesterday going 6-2. I hit on all my O/U picks (4-0, +500 points). Here is how I stack up: OVERALL 88-64 (58%) RATINGS POINTS +6600 LAST 20: 13-7 (65%) ATS - 45-33 (58%) O/U – 43-31 (58%) (Currently on a streak of 5 wins in a row) Here are the results of the team’s that are playing today and my records betting on them. San Antonio 6-7 (4-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U) Memphis 2-6 (0-4 ATS, 2-2 O/U) LA Lakers 16-12 (10-4 ATS, 6-8 O/U) New Orleans 5-0 (2-0 ATS, 3-0 O/U) New York 3-8 (2-3 ATS, 1-5 O/U) Boston 9-9 (6-2 ATS, 3-7 O/U) Denver 3-1 (2-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U) Oklahoma City 5-5 (3-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U) Today’s Picks Western Conference Quarterfinal Game 1 1PM Tip SAN ANTONIO vs. MEMPHIS champs311 picks MEM@SAN, SAN u193.5 and says: UNDER is 4-1 in SAN games as the playoff favorite. UNDER is 7-3 when SAN favored between 5 and 11.UNDER is 5-0 when MEM opponent allowed 100 or more in previous game. (200) champs311 picks MEM@SAN, SAN -6.5 and says: SAN is 12-3-1 ATS last 16 playoff games they were favored between 5 and 11. MEM is 0-5 ATS last 5 playoff games as the underdog. MEM is 1-7 ATS last 8 playoff games they were underdogs between 5 and 11. (200) Western Conference Quarterfinal Game 1 3:30PM Tip LA LAKERS vs. NEW ORLEANS champs311 picks NOH@LAL, LAL -10 and says: NOH 0-8 ATS last 8 games when road underdog between 5 and 11. NOH 2-7 ATS last 9 playing against teams with a winning record. (100) champs311 picks NOH@LAL, NOH o182.5 and says: OVER is 8-2-1 last 11 when LA on 3 or more days of rest. OVER is 5-2 when LA is favored between 5 and 11. OVER is 5-1 for NOH when playing against an opponent with a home winning %. (100) Eastern Conference Quarterfinal Game 1 7PM Tip BOSTON VS. NEW YORK champs311 picks NYK@BOS, NYK +6 and says: NY is 20-6-1 last 27 as road underdog. BOS is 3-12 ATS last 15 playoff games they were favored between 5 and 11. (100) champs311 picks NYK@BOS, NYK o197 and says: OVER is 5-1 last 6 NY playoff games as the underdog. OVER is 5-0 last 5 NY games following a straight up loss. OVER is 5-0 last 5 games BOS playing on 3 days of rest. OVER is 8-1 last 9 games BOS favored between 5 and 11. (200) Western Conference Quarterfinal Game 1 9:30PM Tip OKLAHOMA CITY VS. DENVER champs311 picks DEN@OKC, OKC -5.5 and says: DEN is 0-4 ATS last 4 as the playoff underdog. DEN is 3-9 last 12 as road dog between 5 and 11. OKC is 40-19-1 last 60 games following a straight up loss. OKC 5-2 last 7 playoff games as the favorite. (200) champs311 picks DEN@OKC, OKC u199.5 and says: UNDER 9-1-2 last 12 road games for DEN. UNDER is 24-9-1 last 25 DEN games when underdog on the road. UNDER is 8-3 for OKC when playing on 3 days of rest. (100) (All tip-offs are based on EASTERN TIME ZONE) Good Luck and have a great Sunday!

NBA Playoff Picks - April 16th

2011-04-16T11:24:00.000-04:00

The postseason begins today for the NBA. There weren't any games scheduled yesterday, which gave me some time to look into today's games.

Before you take a look at my picks below, check out my statistics on the regular season.

OVERALL 82-62 (57%)
RATINGS POINTS +6000
LAST 20: 13-7 (65%)
ATS - 43-31 (58%)
O/U - 39-31 (56%)

Thought I would provide how I did for each team that is playing today. I will provide the rest of the teams with my picks tomorrow.

Chicago 4-6 (1-5 ATS, 3-1 O/U)
Indiana 2-4 (2-2 ATS, 0-2 O/U)
Miami 7-1 (3-0 ATS, 4-1 O/U)
Philly 6-3 (4-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U)
Orlando 7-0 (4-0 ATS, 3-0 O/U)
Atlanta 3-1 (2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U)
Dallas 11-2 (7-0 ATS, 4-2 O/U)
Portland 4-9 (3-4 ATS, 1-5 O/U)

Now to the picks:

Eastern Conference Quarterfinal Game 1

1PM Tip

CHICAGO vs. INDIANA

champs311 picks IND@CHI, IND +11.5 and says: IND is 9-1 ATS last 10 when playing on the road and as the underdog. IND is 4-1 ATS last 5 following a loss of more than 10 points. CHI is 0-4-1 ATS last 5 playoff games as the favorite. (200)

champs311 picks IND@CHI, IND o187.5 and says: OVER is 6-0 last 6 games when IND scored less than 75 in their previous game. OVER is 8-2 when IND is playing on 2 days of rest. OVER is 7-3 last 10 playoff games when CHI is the favorite. (100)

Eastern Conference Quarterfinal Game 1

3:30PM Tip

MIAMI vs. PHILLY

champs311 picks PHI@MIA, PHI +10.5 and says: PHIL is 4-1 ATS last 5 games as an underdog in the playoffs. MIA 4-10 ATS last 14 games as the home favorite between 5 and 11 points. (100)

champs311 picks PHI@MIA, MIA u190 and says: UNDER is 11-5-1 last 17 meetings. UNDER is 9-3 last 12 playoff games for PHIL where they were an underdog between 5 and 11 points. (200)

Eastern Conference Quarterfinal Game 1

7PM Tip

ORLANDO vs. ATLANTA

champs311 picks ATL@ORL, ORL -8.5 and says: ORL is 15-5-1 ATS after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. ATL is 3-12-1 ATS last 16 playoff games as the underdog. (100)

champs311 picks ATL@ORL, ATL o179.5 and says: OVER is 6-1 last 7 when ORL allowed less than 75 in their previous game. Every statistic I see has this game going UNDER. Vegas knows this and made the number a low one. (100)

Western Conference Quarterfinal Game 1

9:30PM Tip

DALLAS vs. PORTLAND

champs311 picks POR@DAL, POR +5 and says: DAL is 1-4 ATS last 5 playing on 2 days of rest. POR is 10-4 ATS last 14 playoff games as the underdog. POR is 6-2 ATS last 8 overall games as the underdog. (100)

champs311 picks POR@DAL, DAL u186.5 and says: UNDER is 7-2 last 9 playoff games that POR was the underdog. UNDER is 8-3-1 last 12 games when Dallas was the favorite. (100)

(All tip-offs are based on EASTERN TIME ZONE)

Update April 12th NBA Picks

2011-04-13T09:24:00.000-04:00

I thought after the big Tuesday we had that last night probably would be a draw back and indeed it was.

Chicago vs. New York

PICK – NY +7.5 and Under 204

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2011041218

Outcome:

It was tight all the way through until the 3^rd quarter. The BULLS used a 32-18 run in the 3^rd to seize the lead and able to earn the 103-90 victory.

I thought we would see more of a game like we did in the 2^nd half than the first last night. 1^st half contributed to 107 of the total 193 points. Luckily, for us we had the line at 204.

ATS – LOSS = -200 points

O/U – WIN = +100 points

Memphis vs. Portland

PICK – MEM +5.5 and Under 189.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2011041222

Outcome:

Portland was able to turn a halftime deadlock at 45 to a 102-89 victory and secure the #6 seed for the Western Conference Playoffs.

Always tough when you lose by less than 5 points. We needed more like the 2^nd quarter gave us (20-18) rather than scores like the 1^st and 4^th quarter (27-25) and (28-23).

ATS – LOSS = -200 points

O/U – LOSS = -100 points

San Antonio vs. LA Lakers

Pick – SA +7 and Under 194.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2011041213

Outcome:

The LAKERS couldn’t continue its losing streak. And it was hauled last night. After another TIE game at halftime the LAKERS were able to take the 3^rd quarter (25-19) and hold off SA in the 4^th for the win.

These are the games that make me think the NBA is just to fickle of a game to bet on. The 1^st half total was 90 (45-45), well below the projected 194 total score. Even the 3^rd quarter brought us more of the same (25-19 or 44 points). However, then you see the 4^th quarter score (32-29). The UNDER had a 60 point barrier going into the 4^th quarter and was happens? They score 61. Unbelievable. Bad beat on that one.

ATS – LOSS = -100 points

O/U – LOSS = -100 points.

Brings my stats to:

NBA overall 81-62 (57%)

NBA overall points +5,500

NBA last 20: 13-7 (65%)

NBA ATS 43-31 (58%)

NBA O/U 38-31 (55%)

The NBA 2011 Regular Season comes to an end tonight with 15 games on the schedule. Most games feature teams that have already clinched playoff spots against teams that have been knocked out of the playoff race for quite some time. All in all this is just hard to pick because some teams will come to play and some won't. Will look into what is on the NBA plate tonight and see if there is anything to be had.

April 12th NBA Picks

2011-04-12T17:02:00.000-04:00

I don't expect a night like we had yesterday, but I did pick tonight's games.

http://provenplays.com/PublicProfile.aspx?Profile=champs311

champs311 picks SAN@LAL, SAN +7 and says: SA is 6-1 ATS when their opponent scored over 100 in previous game. SA is 5-2 ATS when SA scores over 100 in previous game. (100 points)

champs311 picks SAN@LAL, LAL u194 and says: UNDER is 22-7 in SA games where they face a team with a winning Straight Up record. UNDER is 7-0 last 7 meetings in LA. UNDER is 21-6 last 27 games between the two teams. (100 points)

champs311 picks MEM@POR, POR u189 and says: UNDER is 11-3-1 last 15 meetings in Portland. (100 points)

champs311 picks MEM@POR, MEM +5.5 and says: DOG is 17-8-1 ATS last 26 meetings. MEM is 22-6-1 ATS as an underdog in overall games. MEM 13-5 when playing on the road against a team that has a winning home record. (200 points)

champs311 picks CHI@NYK, NYK u204 and says: UNDER is 11-5 last 16 meetings and 6-1 when games played in New York. 73% on the OVER. (100 points)

champs311 picks CHI@NYK, NYK +7.5 and says: Same match-up for 1st round of playoffs. I see BULLS sitting players and NY trying to make a statement. CHI 0-4 when scoring over 100 in previous game. NY 4-0 ATS after scoring over 100 in previous game. (200 points)

Good luck all.
(hope this is not a premonition of what is to come with my picks)

http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=230143

Update April 11th NBA Picks

2011-04-12T11:19:00.000-04:00

WOW! What can I say?

If you aren't a believer after last night, I don't know what to tell you.

Ridiculous, 14-2 last night in my picks.

The only two games I missed last night were:

Detroit -6.5 vs. Cleveland (Cleveland won by 9 as the DOG)

Milwakee -8.5 vs. Toronto (BUCKS only won by 7)

But even those two games can't rain on my parade from last night.

Yesterdays Results included:

ATS 6-2 (3 of the DOGS I had, WON outright)

O/U 8-0

(WAS/BOS UNDER tried to come back and bite me while going to OT by was able to slip in the W)

(MINN/PHO OVER cruised by a margin of 43 points going over the expected total)

Total points ratings +2,500

You can check out my previous post or my Proven Plays account for details on yesterday's picks.

http://provenplays.com/PublicProfile.aspx?Profile=champs311

Tonight's schedule only includes 3 games and 2 of them are on TNT.

My Overall Statistics

NBA overall record: 80-57 (58%)

NBA overall points: +6,100 Points

NBA Last 20 picks: 16-4 (80%)

NBA ATS 43-28 (61%)

NBA O/U 37-29 (56%)

April 11th NBA Picks

2011-04-11T16:28:00.002-04:00

Below are my picks for the night.

http://provenplays.com/PublicProfile.aspx?Profile=champs311

I really like the UNDER in Boston vs. Washington and the OVER in Minnesota vs. Phoenix. All my other picks are listed before.

champs311 picks OKC@SAC, OKC o207.5 and says: OVER is 12-5-1 last 18 meetings. UNDER is 6-2 last 8 games OKC been on the road. (100 points)

champs311 picks OKC@SAC, OKC -5.5 and says: OKC is 7-2 ATS last 9 on the road. KINGS are 8-21 ATS last 29 games. KINGS 0-4-1 playing on 0 days rest. (100 points)

champs311 picks MIN@PHO, MIN +9 and says: ROAD team is 7-2 ATS last 9 meetings. (100 points)

champs311 picks MIN@PHO, MIN o219 and says: OVER is 15-5-1 following a SUNS road trip of over 7 games. OVER is 13-2 in Minnesota's games where they allow 125 or more the previous game. 92% on the UNDER as well. (500 points)

champs311 picks DAL@HOU, DAL -2 and says: DALLAS 6-2 ATS last 8 games in Houston. 84% on Dallas scares me though. (100 points)

champs311 picks DAL@HOU, HOU u206.5 and says: Dallas favored means the game is going UNDER (7-2-1). UNDER is 6-2 when Houston is the underdog. (200 points)

champs311 picks UTA@NOH, UTA +7 and says: UTA is 12-3-1 ATS last 16 meetings. (200 points)

champs311 picks UTA@NOH, NOH u193.5 and says: Lot of people picking the OVER, I going UNDER. UNDER is 10-4-1 last 15 meetings. (100 points)

champs311 picks TOR@MIL, MIL u200.5 and says: UNDER is 42-18 in Toronto's Monday games. Under is 17-7 for MIL at home. (200 points)

champs311 picks TOR@MIL, MIL -8.5 and says: MIL 5-1-1 on 1 day of rest. TOR is 1-5 ATS following a straight up loss. (100 points)

champs311 picks CLE@DET, DET u211.5 and says: UNDER is 39-13 last 52 meetings. (100 points)

champs311 picks CLE@DET, DET -6.5 and says: Favorite is 16-5 ATS last 21. (100 points)

champs311 picks BOS@WAS, WAS u193 and says: UNDER is 44-21 last 65 in Washington games. UNDER is 9-0 when the opponent of Boston's previous game scores over 100 points. Boston on 0 days rest the under is 8-2. (500 points)

champs311 picks ORL@PHI, ORL +2 and says: Superman returns tonight spells doom for Phily. Also, doesn't help that PHIL is 1-6 ATS last 7 following a ATS loss. Road team is 5-1 ATS last 6. (100 points)

champs311 picks MIA@ATL, ATL u189.5 and says: UNDER is 13-5 last 18 meetings. (200 points)

champs311 picks MIA@ATL, MIA -6.5 and says: Hawks are 1-6 at home against a team with a road winning % over 60%. Favorite is also 7-3 ATS last 10 games. (200 points)

Lets keep the momentum going.

My Overall Statistics

NBA overall record: 66-55 (55%)

NBA overall points: +3,600 Points

NBA Last 20 picks: 13-7 (65%)

NBA ATS 37-26 (59%)

NBA O/U 29-29 (50%)

Update on April 10th NBA Picks

2011-04-11T12:48:00.000-04:00

How last night turned out:
http://provenplays.com/PublicProfile.aspx?Profile=champs311

Dallas vs. Phoneix
Line: Dallas -9.5 and 206
Prediction: Dallas COVERS (100 points) and UNDER 206 (500 points)
Trends:
Favorite is 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings.
DALLAS is 5-1 ATS last 6 games when favored between 5 and 10 points.
OUTCOME:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2011041006

DALLAS opened the game with a 36-17 first quarter and never looked back en route to a 115-90 win.
Thanks to a 36 point 3^rd quarter, we were able to hold on for the UNDER as well by 1 point.
ATS WINNER +100 Points
O/U WINNER +500 Points

Sacramento vs. Golden State
Line: GS -5 and 218
Prediction: GS COVERS (200 points) and UNDER 218 (200 points)
Trends:
GS 4-1 ATS last 5 overall games.
KINGS 1-5 ATS last 6 meetings.
UNDER is 4-1 last 5 games KINGS were an underdog.
UNDER is 4-0 for games following a KINGS loss.
OUTCOME:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2011041009

Unfortunately, the KINGS finally did something last night that they haven’t been able to do all season long. Sustain a comeback in the 4th quarter and come away with a victory. Thanks to a 27-20 4th quarter by the KINGS they were able to defeat GS 104-103.
The 1st half scares us a little (119 total points), but thanks to 41 and 47 point 3rd and 4th quarter we were able to get the UNDER we were looking for.
ATS LOSER -200 Points
O/U WINNER +200 Points

Oklahoma City vs. Los Angelos
Line: LA -5.5 and 192
Prediction: LA COVERS (200 points) and OVER 192 (200 points)
Trends:
LAKERS are 5-1 ATS last 6 when facing a team with a winning % over .600
Every trend looks to be pointing to the UNDER, I shouldn't be but I am going with the OVER.
OUTCOME:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2011041013

LAKER fans better start to worthy about their team and the upcoming playoffs. Last night they lost their 5th straight game and produced a 4th quarter that they hope to soon forget. Thunder outscored LA 32-16 in the 4th and turned a close game into a runaway for OKC.
Even though the 4th quarter was one sided on the scoreboard; the rest of the game provided enough scoring for the total to hit the OVER.
ATS LOSER -200 Points
O/U WINNER +200 Points

Had a pretty nice run going 4-2 last night.

Last week I was able to go: (week of 4/4 to 4/10)
ATS 7-4 (64%)
O/U 11-8 (58%)
OVERALL 18-12 (60%)

For the whole year I am:
NBA overall record: 66-55 (55%)
NBA overall points: +3,600 Points
NBA Last 20 picks: 13-7 (65%)
NBA ATS 37-26 (59%)
NBA O/U 29-29 (50%)

With only 3 days left in the regular season, I look to finish strong starting with tonight with 11 games on the schedule.

NBA PICKS for April 10th

2011-04-10T19:22:00.000-04:00

Just got finished watching the end to the MASTERS. There is a reason they call it a tradition unlike any other. Congrats to South African, Charl Schwartzel on the Victory.

Thought I would share some thoughts on the final NBA games of the night.
There is a 500 point rating out there to be had.

http://provenplays.com/PublicProfile.aspx?Profile=champs311

Dallas vs. Phoneix
Line: Dallas -9.5 and 206
Prediction: Dallas COVERS (100 points) and UNDER 206 (500 points)
Trends:
Favorite is 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings.
DALLAS is 5-1 ATS last 6 games when favored between 5 and 10 points.

Sacramento vs. Golden State
Line: GS -5 and 218
Prediction: GS COVERS (200 points) and UNDER 218 (200 points)
Trends:
GS 4-1 ATS last 5 overall games.
KINGS 1-5 ATS last 6 meetings.
UNDER is 4-1 last 5 games KINGS were an underdog.
UNDER is 4-0 for games following a KINGS loss.

Oklahoma City vs. Los Angelos
Line: LA -5.5 and 192
Prediction: LA COVERS (200 points) and OVER 192 (200 points)
Trends:
LAKERS are 5-1 ATS last 6 when facing a team with a winning % over .600
Every trend looks to be pointing to the UNDER, I shouldn't be but I am going with the OVER.

Have a good night.

Update April 8th NBA Picks

2011-04-09T12:26:00.001-04:00

“Momma said there would be days like this.”

Went 3-4 last night.

2 of the 4 losses were painful. WASH/BOS misses by 1 point and DAL/LAC game misses by 3.

Below is a recap of how each game faired.

Atlanta vs. Indiana
Line - INDY -5.5
Favorite is 14-3 ATS last 17 meetings between the two teams.
100 Points on INDY to cover.
Recap: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2011040811

Outcome: INDY wins 114-102 = WINNER 100 points

Toronto vs. Philadelphia
Line - 203.5
OVER is 12-4 last 16 meetings.
100 Points on the OVER
Recap: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2011040820

Outcome: Thanks to a combined 29 turnovers in the game.

The total went to 191 = LOSER 100 points

Milwaukee vs. Detroit
Line - 191
UNDER is 25-9 when Milwaukee is the favorite.
100 Points on UNDER
Recap: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2011040808

Outcome: Even though both teams struggled from behind the arc (combined 5-29), the total soared to 210 = LOSER 100 points

Boston vs. Washington
Line - 193
OVER is 7-3 last 10 meetings.
100 Points on OVER

Recap: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2011040802

Outcome: Tale of two halfs. 1^st (59-56, 115 points) against the 2^nd (45-32, 75 points) = 192 total, LOSER 100 points

Sacramento vs. Memphis
Line - 204
88% of public on OVER. UNDER is 6-1 last 7 home Grizzly games.
200 Points on UNDER
Recap: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2011040829

Outcome: A 40 point 2^nd quarter helped us to a 197 total = WINNER 200 points

Dallas vs. Clippers
Line - 200
94% of public on the OVER.
UNDER is 6-1-1 last 8 games Dallas was favored.
500 Points on UNDER
Recap: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2011040806

Outcome: Unfortunately, a 102 point 2^nd half costs us the UNDER with a 203 total = LOSER 500 points

Lakers vs. Portland
Line - LA - 2
UNDERDOG is 21-8 last 29 meetings.
500 Points on PORTLAND

Recap: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2011040822

Outcome: Lakers good from the 3 (11-25), but not from 2 (23-61) and a total of 7 made free throws gives us the W. WINNER 500 points

My Statistics:
NBA overall record is 62-53 for 54%.
NBA overall points is +3,000
NBA last 20 picks are 11-9 for 55%.
NBA ATS record is 36-24 for 60%.
NBA O/U record is 26-29 for 47%

April 8th NBA Picks

2011-04-08T19:02:00.002-04:00

Lets get back to it tonight with 12 games on the slate.

A few that caught my eye are:

Atlanta vs. Indiana
Line - INDY -5.5
Favorite is 14-3 ATS last 17 meetings between the two teams.
100 Points on INDY to cover.

Toronto vs. Philadelphia
Line - 203.5
OVER is 12-4 last 16 meetings.
100 Points on the OVER

Milwaukee vs. Detroit
Line - 191
UNDER is 25-9 when Milwaukee is the favorite.
100 Points on UNDER

Boston vs. Washington
Line - 193
OVER is 7-3 last 10 meetings.
100 Points on OVER

Sacramento vs. Memphis
Line - 204
88% of public on OVER. UNDER is 6-1 last 7 home Grizzly games.
200 Points on UNDER

Dallas vs. Clippers
Line - 200
94% of public on the OVER.
UNDER is 6-1-1 last 8 games Dallas was favored.
500 Points on UNDER

Lakers vs. Portland
Line - LA - 2
UNDERDOG is 21-8 last 29 meetings.
500 Points on PORTLAND.

My Statistics:
NBA overall record is 59-48 for 55%.
NBA overall points is +3,500
NBA last 20 picks are 13-7 for 65%.
NBA ATS record is 34-24 for 59%.
NBA O/U record is 25-24 for 51%

Sorry for getting this out so late. Really like the last 3 games of the night.

Happy Friday Everyone.

Update on NBA Picks from April 6th

2011-04-07T09:18:00.003-04:00

So what happened last night?
My picks started off slow 1-4 to be exact.

However, like all teams in the NBA I made a run. A 6-1 run that is.

Breakdown of what happened
100 POINTS = 3-2
200 POINTS = 4-2 (started the night 0-2 with WAS/IND game, but finished 4-0)
500 POINTS = 0-0

My Statistics:
NBA overall record is 59-48 for 55%.
NBA overall points is +3,500
NBA last 20 picks are 13-7 for 65%.
NBA ATS record is 34-24 for 59%.
NBA O/U record is 25-24 for 51% (Started last night 0-2 in O/U, but am currently riding 6 consecutive winners)

Overall the games went like this:

LAL@GSW, GSW u202.5 and says: 80% of public on the OVER. The UNDER is 6-1 in their last 7 games when the starting lineup for the LAKERS played a combined 160 minutes or more in their previous game. (200 points) Actual points = 95-87 = 182. WINNER +200 POINTS.

DEN@DAL, DEN +4.5 and says: Denver is 7-1 ATS last 8 games in Dallas. Dallas is 1-7 ATS last 8 games after they allow 100 points or more in their previous game. (200 points) Actual score = DEN 104-96. WINNER +200 POINTS.

MIL@MIA, MIA u183.5 and says: UNDER is 6-2 in last 8 games between the two teams. UNDER is also 9-4 last 13 Bucks games on the road. (100 points) Actual points = 90-85 = 175. WINNER +100 POINTS.

WAS@IND, IND u207 and says: UNDER is 16-7 last 23 games for the WIZ against the CENTRAL. UNDER is also 4-1 last 5 between the two teams. (200 points) Actual points = 136-112 = 248. LOSER -200 POINTS.

NYK@PHI, NYK o214 and says: OVER is 8-1 last 9 games that the 76ers were a home favorite. (100 points) Actual points = 97-92 = 189. LOSER -200 POINTS.

CLE@TOR, TOR u210 and says: UNDER is 13-3-1 last 17 games between the two teams in Toronto. (100 points) Actual points = 104-96 = 200. WINNER +100 POINTS.

CLE@TOR, TOR -5 and says: The favorite between the two teams is 7-3 ATS last 10 games. (100 points) Actual score = CLE 104-96. LOSER -100 POINTS.

NJN@DET, NJN o199.5 and says: 81% of the public is on the UNDER. Fade away. Also, OVER is 6-2 last 8 in the series. OVER is 12-5 in Pistons' games as the favorite. (100 points) Actual points = 116-109 = 225. WINNER +100 POINTS.

HOU@NOH, NOH u200.5 and says: 89% of the public on the OVER. Also, UNDER is 9-3 last 12 in the series. (200 points) Actual points = 101-93 = 194. WINNER +200 POINTS.

WAS@IND, WAS +11.5 and says: INDY is 2-8-1 ATS last 11 when they are a home favorite over 11 points. INDY is also 3-8 ATS last 11 after they allow 100+ points in their previous game. (200 points) Actual points = 136-112 = 248. LOSER -200 POINTS.

ORL@CHA, ORL o181.5 and says: 84% of public on UNDER. I fade once the public goes over 80%. OVER is 13-4 last 17 home games for Charlotte. (200 points) Actual points = 111-102 = 213. WINNER +200 POINTS.

Only two games on the schedule tonight. Boston vs. Chicago and Portland vs. Utah. Both on TNT starting at 8pm eastern.

VEGAS made some huge blunders yesterday in the games and I expect them to get it straight tonight. I will look closely into the games and if I see something I will update, but will probably hold off until Friday where the NBA has 12 games slated.

As always feel free to take a look at my provenplays.com account at:
http://provenplays.com/PublicProfile.aspx?Profile=champs311

You can sign yourself up as well it's free and they will track all of your statistics on the website. You can't beat it.

Have a great Thirsty Thursday!

April 6, 2011 NBA PICKS

2011-04-06T19:03:00.001-04:00

You can take a look at my proven plays account for the details on my picks, but here is a quick summary:

my profile page
(http://provenplays.com/PublicProfile.aspx?Profile=champs311)

champs311 picks LAL@GSW, GSW u202.5 and says: 80% of public on the OVER. The UNDER is 6-1 in their last 7 games when the starting lineup for the LAKERS played a combined 160 minutes or more in their previous game. (200 points)

champs311 picks DEN@DAL, DEN +4.5 and says: Denver is 7-1 ATS last 8 games in Dallas. Dallas is 1-7 ATS last 8 games after they allow 100 points or more in their previous game. (200 points)

champs311 picks MIL@MIA, MIA u183.5 and says: UNDER is 6-2 in last 8 games between the two teams. UNDER is also 9-4 last 13 Bucks games on the road. (100 points)

champs311 picks WAS@IND, IND u207 and says: UNDER is 16-7 last 23 games for the WIZ against the CENTRAL. UNDER is also 4-1 last 5 between the two teams. (200 points)

champs311 picks NYK@PHI, NYK o214 and says: OVER is 8-1 last 9 games that the 76ers were a home favorite. (100 points)

champs311 picks CLE@TOR, TOR u210 and says: UNDER is 13-3-1 last 17 games between the two teams in Toronto. (100 points)

champs311 picks CLE@TOR, TOR -5 and says: The favorite between the two teams is 7-3 ATS last 10 games. (100 points)

champs311 picks NJN@DET, NJN o199.5 and says: 81% of the public is on the UNDER. Fade away. Also, OVER is 6-2 last 8 in the series. OVER is 12-5 in Pistons' games as the favorite. (100 points)

champs311 picks HOU@NOH, NOH u200.5 and says: 89% of the public on the OVER. Also, UNDER is 9-3 last 12 in the series. (200 points)

champs311 picks WAS@IND, WAS +11.5 and says: INDY is 2-8-1 ATS last 11 when they are a home favorite over 11 points. INDY is also 3-8 ATS last 11 after they allow 100+ points in their previous game. (200 points)

champs311 picks ORL@CHA, ORL o181.5 and says: 84% of public on UNDER. I fade once the public goes over 80%. OVER is 13-4 last 17 home games for Charlotte. (200 points)

Picks are on a 100, 200, 500 point scale.

Good Luck Everyone.

I will update the results tomorrow.

Shifting Gears to the NBA

2011-04-06T09:53:00.000-04:00

With the NCAA basketball season coming to an end on Monday night, my focus shifts to the NBA. The playoffs begin in less than a month and money is out there to be had. I admit I struggled down the stretch in the NCAA Tournament. I let my heart pick the games instead of the stats. That will not happen this time. I can't afford for it to happen.

If you take a look at my PROVEN PLAYS account you will see I am starting to find a good roll on the NBA.
http://provenplays.com/PublicProfile.aspx?Profile=champs311

Last night I went 4-1 on my plays.

3-0 on spread picks
+2 on Cleveland over Charlotte
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2011040505

+10.5 on Golden State over Portland
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2011040522

+13.5 on Utah over the Lakers (Utah actually won the game straight up)
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2011040513

And 1-1 on Over/Under picks
Lost on the OVER 202 in the Golden State game (points were 195)
Won on the UNDER 193 in the Lakers game (points were 171)
(see recaps above)

That 4-1 night puts a nice profit of +900 for points ratings.
Basically the points ratings work like this: you assign points to your picks either 100, 200, or a 500 rating. 500 rating means it should be a lock and 100 rating you are a little uneasy.

Last night my 500 rating play hit as the Cleveland Cavaliers (+2) beat the Charlotte Bobcats 99-89. I mentioned the reason for my pick on the provenplays website: "Bobcats can't keep healthy bodies on the court. It will cost them in this one." I was proven correct when the CAVS jumped out to a 34-16 first quarter lead and held on to win by double digits.

Okay, the naysayers are going to say he had a nice night, but he can't do it over the long haul. Well....

My statistics speak for themselves
NBA overall record is 52-44 for 54%.
NBA overall points is +3,000
NBA last 20 picks are 13-7 for 65%.
NBA ATS record is 33-22 for 60%.
NBA O/U record is 19-22 for 46% (However, I am 9-6 for my last 15 for 60%)

Not sure what my picks for tonight will include, however with 12 games on the schedule there is money to be made.

Keep an eye out on my proven plays account and even sign yourself up to see how you match up.

The more information that we put into these games and let the statistics run the show, all we have to do is sit back and enjoy the ride.

Lets keep the ball rolling!

The Final Four

2011-03-30T17:18:00.001-04:00

Then there was four! It has come down to this, the final weekend of college basketball. “The Final Four.” Every year we say that the final four teams are different and every story is different, but this year takes the cake. The 2010-2011 NCAA Basketball Tournament provided a statistic that only been since twice before in the history of the tournament. There isn’t a single #1 seed to be found in the Final Four. Actually, in one semifinal you have the largest seeding between two teams when you add the two together. (Butler #8 seed vs. Virginia Commonwealth a #11 seed) So, it’s only fitting for the tournament that starting with a stat that had never been seen before (Michigan winning a NCAAT game without attempting a free throw in a 30 point win over Tennessee in Round 1) to showcase the Final Four teams that only 2 out of 5.9 million brackets that were filled out to pick correctly. How do you like those odds?

No one truly in their right state of mind would have guessed that these four schools would make up the Final Four. Why do I say that? Well, just look at the odds that VEGAS placed on these teams before the season began.

2010-2011 NCAA College Basketball Future Odds to Win the Championship

Kentucky 30-1 risk 100 to win 3000

Connecticut 75-1 risk 100 to win 7500

Butler 50-1 risk 100 to win 5000

Virginia Commonwealth 200-1 risk 100 to win 20,000

The odds can be found here if you would like to see for yourself:

http://www.sportsbooklists.com/blog/ncaa-basketball/2010-ncaa-basketball-previews-predictions-103010/

Unfortunately, those odds have now diminished drastically (see below) since there is a 25% chance that each team could bring home the hardware (1 in 4). VEGAS is not putting all the same odds on each team, understandably; however, I could definitely see any of the remaining four teams hoisting the trophy Monday night.

2010-2011 NCAA College Basketball Current Odds to Win the Championship

(According to BETED.com)

Kentucky +115

Connecticut +200

Butler +330

VCU +480

The fight pans out this way. In one corner, you have the two traditional powerhouses, Kentucky and Connecticut, with the winner moving on to the Championship Game, Monday night. The polar opposite sits in the other corner. Two Cinderellas, Butler and Virginia Commonwealth, who both will be playing with house money with nothing to lose, but everything to gain. Some say the key will be if the powerhouses can save enough in the tank from the backyard bash that will occur in the National Semifinals to finish off the run come Monday. However, on the flip-side, this may not be Butler’s first rodeo; however, both VCU and Butler have gone to great lengths to get to this point. There is intrigue no matter where you look that is for sure.

Kentucky Wildcats
What the Wildcats lack in experience they combat with athleticism and talent. Being able to take down both the overall #1 seed, Ohio State, and following that up by knocking off #2 seed UNC was incredible in the way that they were able to attack both off the dribble. The NBA would be proud of these ‘Cats. If they are able to keep the focus off of freshman Terrance Jones and Brandon Knight and continue to feed off of Josh Harrellson’s breakout performance, Kentucky will be cutting down the nets in Houston.

The freshman tandem is talented, but like people say, “The problem with freshman, is that they are freshman.” The stage of the Final Four can make you (see Carmelo and Syracuse) or break you (see The Fab 5 of Michigan).

Connecticut Huskies

The one man band that was Kemba Walker has turned into a fine tuned machine that just keeps plowing through the NCAA Tournament field. I truly believe that a team can ride the hot hand of one player and that attracts great play from their teammates, but all it takes for the opposition to cash in is the off night from that one true star. Luckily for the Huskies is that they have a two-time national championship coach to rely on in Jim Calhoun. Not a bad safety blanket at all.

Calhoun can work his magic on the sidelines that is for sure. What he cannot due from the sidelines is control how the game will be played. If the front court of Connecticut get into a physical half court game and the fouls begin to add up, Connecticut cannot counteract that with depth. We talk about Kentucky being young; half of the Connecticut roster is filled with freshman (7 of the 14). Throw in the 2 other sophomores and 64% of the team is underclassmen.

Butler Bulldogs

Butler can make a statement that none of the other teams in the Final Four can make, they have recently been to this point and beyond before. (They lost to Duke in the Title game last year) The key components to that team are for the most part still intact for the exception of Gordon Hayward. Butler has played against pretty much every style you can think off throughout the season so they will be battle tested and ready to show off for the crowd in Houston.

The other teams in the Final Four can claim that Butler has been the luckiest team this year and maybe even in the history of the NCAAT. Just look at this round by round analysis. Second round they win at the buzzer against Old Dominion. Third round after a series of craziness and legit foul calls they upset #1 seed Pittsburgh. The Sweet 16 game against Wisconsin, the Badgers at one point were 1 for their last field goal attempts in the second half. The final evidence is their latest round where they had to go into overtime to take out #2 seed Florida. No one said it has to be pretty, and the Bulldogs have proven that.

Virginia Commonwealth Rams

Butler might have been the luckiest, but the RAMS from Richmond, Virginia have been the mightiest. The 4^th best team out of the CAA in the regular season has taken down a team from each of the following conferences: the ACC (Florida State in Sweet 16), Big East (Georgetown in 2^nd Round, Big 12 (Kansas in Elite 8), Big Ten (Purdue in the 3^rd Round) and PAC-10 (USC in the 1^st Round). If you look at them these include all but 1 power conference, SEC. However, if Kentucky beats UCONN on Saturday and VCU beats Butler then VCU has a chance to take them all down and that would mean becoming the NCAA Champion. The RAMS have done it convincingly as well beating all of the above opponents by an average of 12 points a game including a 10 point win over #1 seed Kansas in San Antonio. VCU all season has lived and died by their press and the 3 ball. So far both have been running at full steam.

When the brackets were announced VCU was among the last 4 to an invite into the NCAAT. They were chosen ahead of the likes of Virginia Tech and Colorado. However, VCU has proven that at least in a one and done tournament they belonged among the best 68 teams in the nation. What VCU has been able to do so far in the tournament is unprecedented, but doesn’t the well run dry after a while? I mean this will be their 6^th game of the NCAAT for them. Their longest winning streak of the season was 9 towards the end, and that only included 3 teams with a winning percentage over 50% for the entire year. If the RAMS are to keep the dream alive they will have to continue to control the tempo of the game and improve on a category they have been struggling with all tournament long, rebounding.

Your guess is as good as mine as to who wins it all this year. All the teams that are here are here for a reason. Some have been dominant, some have survived and advanced and some have defied logic. But that’s why they call it March Madness and come Monday, the true champion will once again rise from the chaos and can claim they are the best NCAA basketball team of the 2010-2011 College Basketball season.

#10 Florida State vs. #11 Virginia Commonwealth – Analysis and Prediction

2011-03-25T14:45:00.000-04:00

The final game on the Sweet 16 schedule I think will be the best game of the day and maybe even of the entire tournament. It includes #11 seed Virginia Commonwealth Rams against another double digit seed #10 Florida State. The winner of this match-up will move on to face the winner of the Kansas/Richmond game

If you need a reference to what the categories mean below, please read the previous post titled:
"Keys to Winning in the NCAA Tournament"

Nobody had these two teams getting this far in the tournament. In fact, for VCU most analysis didn’t even believe they should have even gotten an invitation to play in the Big Dance. While this FSU team that had to play without its star player, Chris Singleton, for the final 6 games of the season, has had its ups and downs (see games against Auburn, Duke, and Maryland, for evidence) throughout the season, but has put it all together when it has mattered most. As Mr. Terrell Owens would say, “Get your popcorn ready!”

Category 1 (see above)

Neither of these teams is skilled at the charity stripe. FSU is only 65% and VCU is a little higher at 68%. This should keep the game close thought, but also may play a key part in the end of game situations.

EDGE – EVEN.

Category 2 (see above)

Rebounding is where FSU makes its money. FSU is one of the lengthiest teams in the NCAAT. FSU usually controls the glass against its competition with a +9 rebounding advantage (FSU 36, opp. 27). However, VCU is the opposite allowing the opposition to gain more rebounds than them (VCU 29, opp. 33).

EDGE – FSU.

Category 3 (see above)

Three Point shooting is where VCU has the advantage amongst these two teams. VCU converts on 40% of their 3 point shots and attempts 24/game. That’s a lot when you compare the other Sweet 16 teams. FSU is more likely to be called offensively challenged than an offensive juggernaut. However, they do hit on 35% of their 3 point shots, but attempt 5 fewer than VCU. The length of FSU has produced bad shooting nights for teams all season long with Notre Dame being the latest victim. I wouldn’t count on VCU making as many 3s as they have against their first 3 opponents; however, if they do we could see the RAMS move on.

EDGE – EVEN. VCU gets the edge offensively, FSU gets the edge defensively.

Category 4 (see above)

FSU was the best defensive team in the NCAA this year based on field goal percentage. They only allowed their opponents to shoot 33%, while offensively they were able to manage 45%. VCU shoots the ball at 44%, but so do their opponents. A key to this game will not only be if VCU can make shots from the outside, but also the tempo of the game. VCU on average attempts 9 more shots a game than FSU.

EDGE - FSU.

Category 5 (see above)

The most important statistical field for this game is right here. FSU is known to turn the ball over a lot and by a lot I mean over 20/game on some nights. There assist-to-turnover ratio is the worst of all Sweet 16 teams are 0.84. The bad side for FSU is that VCU implements a full court press for the majority of the game. If FSU can keep the turnovers down and put forth that lock down defense then no doubt about it FSU will be playing in the Elite 8. VCU on the other hand can handle the pressure as shown by their 1.55 assist-to-turnover ratio. Does the full court defense work? You bet it does and they have 3^rd highest assist-to-turnover ratio on defense from all teams in the Sweet 16, 0.78. Only Duke (0.72) and San Diego State (0.74) are better; unfortunately for VCU both of those teams lost yesterday.

EDGE - VCU.

Trends to watch

FSU is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as a favorite.

VCU is 7-0 ATS in NCAAT games as an underdog.

Prediction

Line – FSU – 4.5

Public 59% on VCU.

This one is hard for me because I live in Richmond, Virginia and I went to VCU. However, I bleed Garnet and Gold. So, I will let the stats produce my winner. The two questions you have to ask are: Can FSU handle the ball against the VCU press and Can VCU shoot a high percentage against the defense and length of FSU? I like the chances of FSU not turning the ball over against the VCU press more than I think VCU can make shots against the length of FSU. I don’t like the 2-6 record FSU has as a favorite, but I think they buck that trend and will play against Kansas on Sunday with the victor heading to Houston for the Final Four.

#1 Ohio State vs. #4 Kentucky – Analysis and Prediction

2011-03-25T14:15:00.000-04:00

The Friday nightcap kicks off with overall #1 seed The Ohio State University from the East Region facing against the #4 seed Kentucky Wildcats.

If you need a reference to what the categories mean below, please read the previous post titled:
"Keys to Winning in the NCAA Tournament"

Ohio State has shown why it is the overall #1 seed in the NCAAT, at least to this point. The Buckeyes beat their second and third round opponents by scores of 75-46 and 99-68, respectively. In contrast, no one is really talking about the kids from Kentucky. They slipped by Princeton by 2 and beat West Virginia from the Big East by 7. Not all that impressive by any means, but they, just like Ohio State, are just one win away from the Elite 8.

Category 1 (see above)

OSU and Kentucky, just like most of the match-ups in the Sweet 16, shoot about the same percentage from the free throw line. The difference between the two in this case is that OSU attempts 10 more than the opposition. However, a crazy stat to see is that OSU opponents actually connect on 90% of their free throw attempts (9 of 10 on average per game.) Kentucky isn’t too bad itself sporting a +6 margin.

EDGE – EVEN.

Category 2 (see above)

OSU and Kentucky average the same amount of rebounds per game.

EDGE – EVEN.

Category 3 (see above)

OSU has a very special talent nicknamed “Three-Bler”, real last name Diebler, who is the all-time leading 3 point shooter in the Big Ten. So it should come to no surprise that OSU connects on 45% from the land of 3. The better stat is that they hold their opponents to only 34%. Kentucky isn’t terrible at 35%, but just doesn’t compare to OSU. And both OSU and Kentucky shoot the same amount of 3s a game 15, which just goes to show you how good OSU is from 3.

EDGE – OSU.

Category 4 (see above)

So there must be a down side for OSU, right? Well, they actually hit on 49% overall. You don’t necessarily think of OSU being an offensive juggernaut, but they can do it all. Their defense carried them to holding LIU to only 45 total points. Their offense was rolling when they put up 99 on George Mason. Kentucky shoots at 44%, but so does their opponents, who average 41%.

EDGE – OSU.

Category 5 (see above)

OSU is just a statistical giant. The assist-to-turnover category isn’t going to slow them down either. OSU has a 1.75 assist-to-turnover ratio and their defense only allows 0.85, a nice little 0.90 difference there. Kentucky holds a respectable +0.30 difference between their opponents; however, their offense only contributes to 1.18 of that.

EDGE – OSU.

Trends to watch

OSU is 9-2 ATS in last 11 after a straight up win of over 20 points.

OSU is 5-11 ATS in last 16 NCAAT games as a favorite.

KENTUCKY is 1-7 ATS in last 8 games after a straight up win.

KENTUCKY is 4-1 ATS in last 5 games as an underdog.

Prediction

Line – Ohio State -5.5

Public are 96% on OSU.

The only part of me that thinks that Kentucky has a chance in this game is the public. 96% of the public is on Ohio State. Las Vegas has got to be either loving or dreading that number. However, VEGAS has not really budged on the line keeping it around 6 points. I love that OSU has the edge in every category and would be alright if you were part of the 96% on OSU, but I just can’t do it. If the public was so smart then we would all be millionaires. I am taking the 6 points and riding KENTUCKY.

#1 Kansas vs. #12 Richmond – Analysis and Prediction

2011-03-25T13:46:00.000-04:00

The second Friday game is one of the more intriguing games of the Sweet 16. It will be played in San Antonio, Texas, which not too far from where the Final Four will be held Houston. It displays #1 seed Kansas; a lot of people’s pick to win it all, versus Atlantic 10 Cinderella #12 seed Richmond.

If you need a reference to what the categories mean below, please read the previous post titled:
"Keys to Winning in the NCAA Tournament"

Most people believe that this is the year Kansas lives up to its billing and gets to the Final Four and for good reason. They have had a rather easy road to get to this point, but did dispatch both Boston University and Illinois by an average of 16.5. In the other corner will be the first of two teams coming in from Richmond, Virginia, my hometown. The Spiders knocked out #3 seed Vanderbilt in the second round and coasted by fellow Cinderella and #13 seed Morehead State by 17. This is what March Madness brings us the classic battle between favorite and underdog, David and Goliath.

Category 1 (see above)

Kansas and Richmond shoot around the same percentage from the line (KU 69%, UR 67%), but the Jayhawks attempt 7 more FTs than their opponent (22 to 15) and 4 more than Richmond’s average (18).

EDGE – Kansas.

Category 2 (see above)

Kansas controls the glass when you compare them to their opponents. (KU 38/game, opp. 29/game)

Richmond is not going to out muscle Kansas on the boards, but they might have a chance to keep the numbers close. Spiders average 32 a game while allowing 31.

EDGE – KANSAS.

Category 3 (see above)

One reason I think Richmond might not be able to keep up Kansas tonight is this statistic right here. Both teams shoot exactly the same from 3 point range (37%) and attempt about the same number (KU 17, UR 18). Hard to pull off the upset if don’t perform above your competition.

EDGE – EVEN.

Category 4 (see above)

Kansas gets the shots that it wants to take, thus they average over 50% field goal percentage from the floor. KU not only can put the ball in the hole, but its defense isn’t too shabby either, holding opponents to just 39%. Richmond also holds their opponents to 39%, but is not as efficient as the Jayhawks. The Spiders hit on average 42% of their field goals.

EDGE - KANSAS

Category 5 (see above)

What do you expect from a team that’s defense holds opponents to fewer than 40% shooting, a pretty good assist-to-turnover ratio on the defensive side. Kansas’ defense has a ratio of 0.84, while the offense carries a 1.31 assist-to-turnover-ratio. Richmond will without a doubt be careful with the basketball and the stats seem to think they will hold their own in that category, sporting a 1.41 ratio. Richmond takes care of the ball, and Kansas forces turnovers.

EDGE – EVEN.

Trends to watch

Kansas is 9-4 ATS in last 13 NCAAT games where they were a favorite between 7 and 12.5 points.

Richmond is 7-0-1 in last 8 NCAAT games as an underdog.

Prediction

Line – Kansas -11

Public are 61% on Kansas

The question is can Kansas be stopped? I think Richmond has the personnel to compete with Kansas. However, Richmond will have to make their shots against a stingy Kansas defense and also they have to hold their own on the glass. They let Kansas get opportunity after opportunity and wear down the Spiders. On the flip side, Kansas has to put Richmond away early. The more an underdog hangs around the more they start believing they can pull off the upset. 11 points is a lot to give up in a NCAAT game in the final rounds. I take Richmond to stay within the points, but Kansas to move on to the Regional Final.

#2 North Carolina vs. #11 Marquette – Analysis and Prediction

2011-03-25T09:17:00.001-04:00

The Friday Sweet 16 games start us off with the #2 seed out of the East, North Carolina, against the #11 seed Marquette Golden Eagles from the Big East.

If you need a reference to what the categories mean below, please read the previous post titled:
"Keys to Winning in the NCAA Tournament"

North Carolina steam rolled over #15 seed Long Island University Friday, but got all it could handle in #7 Washington on Sunday winning by just 3. Marquette has been the shock of the East Region not only knocking off #6 seed Xavier, but also beating conference foe and #3 seed Syracuse to make it to the Sweet 16.

Category 1 (see above)

UNC and Marquette both shoot the same free throw percentage. However, the difference between the two schools is how many attempts each school gets per game. Marquette gets to the line 11 more times a game than their opponent.UNC has a +7 margin against theirs.

EDGE - GOLDEN EAGLES.

Category 2 (see above)

UNC is the best rebounding team in the Sweet 16 as far as the stats go. They average 39/game and also hold a nice +7 margin against the opposition.

Marquette is unfortunately at the other end of the spectrum. The Golden Eagles only average 26/game and allow the other team to gain 6 more rebounds than them. Not Good.

EDGE – UNC.

Category 3 (see above)

What I found surprising about both teams when it comes to 3 pointers is that both attempt less than their opponents. (UNC takes 15, opp. 21) (Marquette takes 15, opp. 20). However, UNC does convert at a higher rate than Marquette. (40% to 33%).

EDGE – UNC.

Category 4 (see above)

Both teams are average when it comes to shooting the rock. UNC averages 45%, while the Golden Eagles are 42% and they also how their opponents to similar percentages. (UNC’s opp. 42, Marquette’s opp. 44) I think the biggest key to tonight's game however lies in this statistic. UNC attempts 62 FG/game, Marquette only 56. If Marquette doesn’t slow down the UNC attack and limit the fast break baskets, then the Big East will only have one team remaining. If they are able to do that, then in the half court Marquette can play with UNC.

EDGE – EVEN.

Category 5 (see above)

UNC has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.03 (same as Marquette). If this becomes a track meet however, look for freshman point guard, Marshall, to hand out more than his fair share of assists.

EDGE – EVEN.

Trends to watch

UNC is 10-3 ATS in last 13 NCAAT games.

UNC is 0-3-1 ATS in last 4 after a straight up win in their previous game.

Marquette is 4-1 ATS in last 5 in neutral site games.

Prediction

Line – UNC -4.5

Public is 75% on UNC.

This game is going to come down to who controls the tempo. UNC will look for the up and down the floor, fast pace, score in the 80s type of game. Marquette needs to slow down the Tar Heels and make them work in the half court to have a shot at the upset. I think Marquette has been battle tested playing in the Big East, but I worry that UNC is too much run and gun for them. My play is UNC.

Sweet 16 Update

2011-03-24T17:22:00.001-04:00

Hopefully you found the first 4 Sweet 16 match-ups to be very interesting and useful. I will post the 2 early games that will occur tomorrow at 7pm on my blog tonight probably around midnight. The last 2 games from the round of 16 will be posted tomorrow before 2pm.

Enjoy tonights games as we inch closer to figuring out what teams will be represented in the Final Four in Houston.

#8 Butler vs. #4 Wisconsin – Analysis and Prediction

2011-03-24T10:54:00.002-04:00

The end of the Thursday night games features the 2010 NCAAT Finalist, #8 seed Butler Bulldogs vs. #4 seed Badgers from Wisconsin.

If you need a reference to what the categories mean below, please read the previous post titled:
"Keys to Winning in the NCAA Tournament"

Butler reached the Sweet 16 by the closest of margins through their first two games. They were able to prevail over pesty #9 seed Old Dominion on a buzzer beater by the Bulldog’s best player, Matt Howard. In the third round, the mid-major from Indiana beat the only #1 seed that didn't make it to the round of 16, Pittsburgh by a score of 71-70. The Badgers rolled over Belmont and took a couple of punches from Kansas State, but was able to dispatch the Wildcats as well, 70-65.

Category 1 (see above)

Butler attempts 9 more free throws a game than Wisconsin (Butler 21, Wisconsin 12). Unfortunately, for Butler they only convert 69% of the time, while their opponents shoot 74%.

Wisconsin is very efficient from the line, 78%. But, as stated above they just don’t get there enough.

EDGE – EVEN.

Category 2 (see above)

Butler and Wisconsin both hit the glass pretty evenly with both grabbing 30 (Butler) and 29 (Wisconsin), respectively. They also both allow their opponents the same number on the other end, 30 each a game.

EDGE – EVEN.

Category 3 (see above)

Butler’s Sheldon Mack controls most of the outside shots for the Bulldogs, but don’t seem shocked when Howard, since he has moved positions, steps back behind the line. Overall, as a team, Butler connects on 37% and attempts 24 per game, while holding their opponents to 32%.

Wisconsin relies on a steady ball possession kind of offense, which doesn’t primarily revolve around the 3 point shot; however, they do attempt 21 a game and make 31% of them. Their opposition shoots at the same percentage.

EDGE – Slight edge to BUTLER. Shooting more than Wisconsin and at a better rate means success for the Bulldogs.

Category 4 (see above)

Butler and Wisconsin both shoot about the same percentage from the floor (Butler 43%, Wisconsin 40%) however, Wisconsin does excel on the defensive side where their opponents only average an impressive 37%. Butler allows 43%, the same at which they convert.

EDGE – WISCONSIN.

Category 5 (see above)

Butler holds an impressive 23% higher assist-to-turnover ratio than their opponents, 1.09 vs. .86. Also, they hold the opposition to under the NCAA average. But….

Wisconsin owns the assist-to-turnover ratio. The Badgers value the possession of the basketball like it’s their life. They average 1.86 assists per turnover (that’s DOUBLE the average). There defense allows a little over the average 0.96, but that is still good for a difference of 0.90! WOW! That’s how you win basketball games.

EDGE – WISCONSIN.

Trends to watch

Butler 13-3 ATS in last 16 neutral site games.

Wisconsin is 3-9 ATS in last 12 neutral site games where they were the favorite.

Prediction

Line – Wisconsin -4.5

Public is 51% on BUTLER.

It will be a slug-fest between these two teams in New Orleans. The total has already dropped more than 5 points going from 129 down to 124. However, the public is 69% on the OVER? Hmmm sounds like a trap to me. I would avoid. Now let’s pick the winner. Both teams match up well with each other so I expect the game to be nip and tuck the whole way. I think Wisconsin can get Howard into foul trouble and neutralize Butler on the inside. Wisconsin takes care of the basketball in route to a match-up of contrasting styles as they play Florida for a chance to be a part of the Final Four.

#1 Duke vs. #5 Arizona - Analysis and Prediction

2011-03-23T22:28:00.025-04:00

The Thursday nightcap starts off with #1 seed and defending NCAA champion, Duke Blue Devils against the #5 seed University of Arizona.

If you need a reference to what the categories mean below, please read the previous post titled:
"Keys to Winning in the NCAA Tournament"

Duke prevailed over #16 Hampton (by 32) and #8 Michigan (almost clipped the Dukies before ending its road with a 73-71 loss). Arizona survived and advanced in the second and third round against Memphis and the Longhorns from Texas, respectively (both by less than 3).

Category 1 (see above)
Duke averages 76% from the free throw line and their opponents only connect on 61%. This is the biggest difference of all the Sweet 16 teams.
‘Zona converts at a rate of 74%. Opponents average a 67 free throw percentage.
EDGE – DUKE. Usually Duke holds a large advantage over the total number of FT attempts; however, both teams hold a +4 margin against their opponents. If Duke’s attempts are larger than Zona, I would bet that the Dukies will be moving on.

Category 2 (see above)
Duke rebounds the ball at a rate of 32 per game.
‘Zona is one of the few teams that get out rebounded at a margin of 28 to 30.
EDGE – Arizona’s negative rate on their return for rebounds scares me. DUKE it is.

Category 3 (see above)
Duke just like BYU can sometimes live and die by the 3 (look at the FSU vs. Duke game for evidence). Duke does average 39% from 3 while their opposition hits at 33%.
‘Zona connects at a +7% margin over their opponents; however, they only hit at a rate of 35%.
EDGE – ZONA. If Duke is hitting from behind the arc it could be lights out for Arizona. I am putting my trust in ‘Zona’s great defense from 3 point range (28%) to keep Duke under control here.

Category 4 (see above)
Duke’s field goal percentage is very impressive at 50% and even more so when you take into account that they average 58 attempts per game. Their defense could be better (holding opponents to 42%), but the offense isn’t too shabby.
‘Zona has an alarming statistic here. Their FG% is 43. Opposition however shoots at 49%. If you get out rebounded and have a worst FG% than your opponent I am not liking your chances.
EDGE - DUKE.

Category 5 (see above)
Duke is a little better than average when it comes to assist to turnover ratio = 1.05. What is impressive is that the Duke defense holds the opponents to a ratio of 0.72. That’s a 33% difference!
'Zona holds steady around the mason-dixon line (NCAA avg. = .93) Zona avg. (0.96). Same with their opponent (0.93 ratio).
EDGE - DUKE.

Trends to watch
Duke is 4-1 ATS last 5 in neutral site games.
Duke is 17-8 ATS after an ATS loss.
‘Zona is 5-2 ATS as a NCAAT underdog.
‘Zona is 1-5 ATS in last 6 against the ACC.

Prediction
Line – Duke – 8.5
Public is 82% on ARIZONA.
When it comes down to the statistics this game reminds me a lot of the BYU vs. Florida match-up. One team dominates the stats, but the other team didn’t just get here by sheer luck. I don’t like the line of 9 points, but I do love DUKE to win. Beware of the over on the points however, public is 90% on the over. Fade the public remember when their percentage is over 80%.