Cubbie Doctor's Examiner

Will Soler become too expensive?

2012-02-11T20:27:00.001-06:00

With the Marlins supposedly offering Yoenis Cespedes a contract (and rumor has it they've offered him $40 million for 6 years), it might be just a matter a days before he is off the market.

When that happens, attention will the move to the other Cuban outfielder that has caught the eye of many major league teams, Jorge Soler.

I've gone on record as saying that the Cubs should focus more on signing Soler than Cespedes, which is not a unique opinion. Many other experts and bloggers feel the same way. We are under the assumption that Soler will be significantly cheaper, but is that really going to be true with a kid that is going to be in the minor leagues for the next 3 or more years?

Soler is only 19 years old. More than that, though. There is no solid scouting report on the kid. He's tall and lanky from the photos we've seen of him. He's got a long, loopy swing according to reports from the handful of people who have actually seen the kid play. He's got a good arm and currently has above average speed. Almost everyone has seen Cespedes hit and we know of his insane leg strength thanks to his promotional video but there is literally no video of Soler playing.

What we do know is that most scouts see Soler as having a high ceiling. Some argue whether or not it is as high as Cespedes, but Soler's age gives a team the opportunity to find out without spending as much money.

Many teams, and Cespedes himself, believe that Cespedes is major league ready right now or at least very near it. As a result, a team like the Marlins or the Nationals may be looking to make the big plunge and sign the kid for as much as $50 million and using him has a way of competing immediately in their division. Soler does not give a team that potential right now.

So we then get to the point of this post. Who is interested in Soler and what will they pay for him? Obviously we all believe the Cubs are very interested. The Red Sox have expressed an interest as have the Orioles, Nationals, White Sox and even the A's.

This kid is going to have a lot of suitors...perhaps more than Cespedes has had. If Cespedes signs before Soler (which appears likely right now), the cost to sign this 19 year old might blow up significantly...perhaps north of $20 million.

The Cubs do have $20 million to spend, but would it be worth it? Soler is probably going to spend the better part of the next 3 years in the minor leagues, if not longer. The Red Sox, White Sox and Orioles are all teams that potentially are willing to spend big on talent that won't be available for that many years...the Red Sox because they are always looking toward the future and the other teams because they are in major rebuilding projects like the Cubs. In fact, the White Sox might have the biggest reason to sign Soler since their farm system is currently ranked near or at the bottom by most experts right now.

So what should the Cubs do if the price of Solor does push past $20 million? They are rumored to have already spent $7 to $8 million on Gerardo Concepcion, who didn't have nearly the buzz that Soler does. A number of scouts have projected Concepcion out as only a #4 or #5 starter. Both players are the same age and it might take them both just as long to get to the big leagues.

As I said before, the Cubs do have the money. The 2012 payroll is going to be down significantly from last year. I felt the rumored offer to Concepcion was a bit much, but if this is the direction the Cubs are willing to take, I say that $20+ million for Soler is worth the risk. With Brett Jackson projected as the future center fielder, adding Soler as the 2014 or 2015 left or right fielder seems like a pretty good option.

Watch for more scouting reports on Soler to be posted over the next few weeks. As I mentioned, there isn't much solid information about him compared to what we know about Cespedes. When those reports come out, we can better judge if the escalating price for this kid is worth the risk.

Cespedes seems to like Miami...a lot.

2012-02-09T09:22:00.002-06:00

Yoenis Cespedes met with officials of the Miami Marlins yesterday and got a tour of their new ballpark.

At this point, he doesn't appear to have any plans to meet with the Cubs (though that can't be confirmed)...but the more interesting thing is what Cespedes told reporters yesterday.

A few weeks ago, there was a report from CBS sports that said that Cespedes did not want to play in Miami. I said straight up that I thought this was complete BS. It was a poor piece of reporting from CBS sports that used third hand speculation.

Cespedes has told other teams that he would prefer not to play in Miami. He plans to make his home in the Dominican, rather than in Florida, and may believe that the huge Cuban community in South Florida would add too much pressure and too many distractions.

If you've seen the promotional video for Cespedes, I think it can be assumed that distractions are probably not something he'll have too much of a problem with. This is a kid with a ton of confidence in his abilities and appears to be an extremely hard worker. So yesterday Cespedes said quite the opposite of that report:

"It would be good (to play here). There are a lot of Cubans and they would support me a lot. Hopefully I can play for the Marlins."

Now this is Cespedes's first recruiting visit, so it is probably too early to read a ton into this statement, but the idea that he flat out does not want to play in Miami is just wrong. He's going to go where he can best display his talents and get the best offer. The Marlins are likely to step up here and make a serious stab at getting this kid and with Ozzie Guillen managing the team, he'll have someone that can help mentor him and adapt to living in this country (and teach him all the nuances of Twitter).

It is still possible that this Cuban defector will go somewhere else. He will undoubtedly get offers from several other teams and possibly even the Cubs. It is even possible that his statements yesterday we just a ploy to get other teams to up their offers, though this seems unlikely given Cespedes's inexperience with our culture, language and media.

The idea of Cespedes coming to a frozen Wrigley Field this April just doesn't seem likely with what some of these other teams can offer. Cespedes will be quickly thrown into a pressure cooker somewhere and he'll probably want to take some comfort in his overall surroundings and the Cubs probably can't provide that at the moment. But the Cubs have signed 3 other Cuban players this off-season. The difference, thought, is that that these players will not be big league ready for a number of years yet (though the Cubs might be thinking differently with Gerardo Concepcion), so they will have time to develop and adapt to life here.

Obviously, I still feel the Cubs are not a likely destination for Cespedes and (as I've said before) I'm fine with that. And with what we saw with his first visit to a potential suitor, any other team that is interested in him might have a hard sell.

Of course, I'm not sure any player would want to play in a stadium with this thing in the outfield...

So for those of you who want to see Cespedes in a Cubs uniform, there is still hope.

Add Cardenas...subtract DeWitt

2012-02-06T16:43:00.002-06:00

Blake DeWitt has been designated for assignment today.

Not a Cub.

Why?

I'm not positive, but it could be because the Cubs claimed former Phillies and A's minor leaguer, Adrian Cardenas, off of waivers today.

Is a Cub. (Tuck in your shirt, kid!)

DeWitt came to the Cubs in the trade of Ryan Theriot and Ted Lilly.

In the end, the Cubs really got very little out of that trade, which is too bad.

Cardenas was once regarded as a pretty good prospect in the A's system, after he was drafted by the Phillies as a compensation pick in the first round in 2006.

Ranked in the top 100 prospects in 2008 and 2009, the last two years Cardenas has stalled out in AAA. He's 24 years old and has played 2nd base, 3rd base and shortstop.

He does not have much power, but he does seem to hit for average, makes contact and takes a walk every once in a while. He batted .314 with a .791 OPS last season. He stole a few bases and hit 5 homers.

As Cardenas is an infielder like DeWitt, this again is another situation where the Cubs make a trade off to get someone younger with more years of control.

No hearing for Garza.

2012-02-03T09:20:00.003-06:00

The Cubs avoided going to an arbitration hearing with Matt Garza today by agreeing to a $9.5 million deal for the 2012 season.

The difference between the numbers exchanged last month was rather large, but the Cubs worked out a deal a the lower end of that range. Garza asked for $12.5 while the Cubs offered $7.95.

The Cubs come out winners with this. Garza is still relatively affordable if they choose to trade him, but I think the more likely thing is that they will start to work on a 2 or 3 year contract extension to keep him with the Cubs for a while and buy up his first year or two of free agency.

So, Ryan Theriot still remains the only Cub to have gone to an arbitration hearing since the stone age. What a jerk.

(UPDATED) Cubs sign another Cuban, and are building him a place to train.

2012-02-02T18:26:00.002-06:00

The Cubs signed their 3rd Cuban defector of the off-season today...no, not Yoennis Cespedes.

Gerardo Concepcion, an 19 year old left handed pitcher, was signed to an undisclosed contract, though some people believe it is in the multi-million dollar range.

Concepcion had a 3.36 ERA last season in the Cuban League. He has a low 90's fastball and an above average curveball according to scouts. He's tall and relatively thin, but at only 19 years old, will likely fill out a bit more over the next few years. He doesn't strikeout many batters and walks a few more than I think we'd like to see. Obviously, Concepcion has a few years before he would even be considered to be ready for Major League hitters. I expect him to start the year in high-A ball.

Overall, this is another solid signing by the Cubs. It continues to add depth to the farm system. With Yasiel Balaguert and Carlos Martinez, the Cubs are making significant strides at improving their presence in Latin America.

The Cubs are holding their quarterly organizational meetings this week and unveiled renderings of there new 50 acre baseball academy which will be build in the Dominican Republic.

(To read about it and see the renderings, go here.)

Honestly, this place looks great, and appears to be nicer than the team's current spring training facilities in Mesa. The academy is intended to operate year round and will contain facilities for the organization's Latin players to train at in the off-season.

So now we wait to see if the Cubs sign Cespedes or Jorge Soler, the two top Cuban players who remain available.

**************

Update:

It has been said on Twitter by Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes, Concepcion was signed to a $7 million major league contract.

I find this quite hard to believe as Concepcion has yet to face any major league hitting and is only 19 years old. It would also mean that he would be placed on the 40 man roster.

I believe Rojas is incorrect on this. We don't know how much the contract is for, but it is possible, if not likely that the $7 million number is actually a majority of a signing bonus. I don't see any reason to think Concepcion will be given a major league contract at this point.

Insert Hendry joke here __________

2012-01-31T19:18:00.002-06:00

The Yankees hired Jim Hendry as special assistant to GM Brian Cashman and special assignment scout.

This obviously has spun off a ton of smart ass comments...so here are a few:

Jim Hendry has been named Executive VP of Doughnut Operations of the Yankees.
Yankees hope to lure Alfonso Soriano home.
Jim Hendry: Assistant to the Traveling Secretary.
Yankees continue to pluck former Cubs to create a culture of losing.
A-Rod signs contract extension for $300 million through the year 2042.
Hendry looks to reunite Aaron Miles, Milton Bradley and Jason Marquis in New York.
Yankees look to re-sign Jorge Posada to a backloaded, 8 year contract.
Restaurants in the Bronx rejoice!
Constantly winning is boring.
Cubs fans eagerly wait news of Crane Kenney joining the Yankees.
Yankees look to rework all contracts to include no-trade clauses.
The Yankees actually hired Hendry 4 months ago, but kept it a secret.
The Yankees decide to start ignoring all advanced statistics.
George Costanza has finally been replaced.
The job of Jim Hendry's dream. Unlimited money to spend!
This is the compensation to the Red Sox for Theo Epstein.

And the jokes keep coming.

Do you have any to add?

Some thoughts on the Theo compensation

2012-01-31T09:29:00.001-06:00

We should expect Bud Selig (or Bid Selif if you are theChicago Tribune) to rule on the compensation package that the Cubs will have to surrender for ‘stealing’ Theo Epstein from the Red Sox.

Currently the thought is that the Cubs will have to give up a top prospect with Trey McNutt or Josh Vitters as possible targets.

The truth is I’m not sure if anyone really does know how Selig will rule on this. In fact, there are a number of facts that on both sides of this issue that could be used to support a substantial compensation and to support very little compensation.

Why the Cubs will pay substantial compensation:

Recently, precedent with the Ozzie Guillen compensation between the White Sox and Marlins was relatively substantial…two higher prospects.
Bud Selig will likely want to try to make a statement that top executives under contract can’t just hope from one organization to another.
Theo Epstein’s overall stature in the baseball community. He’s regarded as one of the top baseball executives.
Red Sox owner John Henry and Bud Selig are good buddies and Selig has done a number of favors for Henry topped off by letting him sell the Marlins to another owner (orphaning the Expos) and letting him purchase the Red Sox even as other bidders offered more money.

Why the Cubs will not pay substantial compensation:

In 1994 the Cubs only had to give up 2 low level prospects to take Andy McPhail away from the Twins. MacPhail was the Twins GM and he was promoted to team President when he joined the Cubs…similar to the situation with Theo.
Theo was promoted in the process of going to the Cubs. For the most part, teams in baseball (and most other sports) will not require significant compensation when a guy leaves to take a job with a higher title.
Theo was going to leave after the 2012 season and might have even resigned his position before the 2012 season since much of the rest of the Red Sox organization was in a time of transition.
There isn’t a large problem with team executives bolting from one organization to another. There is no reason to do anything drastic here to try to prevent a problem from growing.
It’s not good business practice for baseball to try to prevent an executive from taking a job with more responsibility or getting a promotion.
While Guillen did get the White Sox a good haul, the job with the Marlins wasn’t a promotion for Guillen. He has the same job now as he did with the White Sox.

My gut feeling on the matter is that the Cubs will likely give up Trey McNutt in the deal. The Red Sox have made it known they want pitching and initially wanted Matt Garza as compensation. McNutt is the best pitching prospect in the Cubs system right now and I expect Selig will favor the Red Sox a bit more in this deal just because of his previous dealings with John Henry.

Expect a ruling on this before the end of the week.

Cespedes...or spend less

2012-01-26T11:13:00.000-06:00

Yoenis Cespedes is officially a free agent. The much ballyhooed 26 year old Cuban defector is now currently the biggest name on the free agent market, and the Cubs are supposedly his top suitor.

My initial reaction to the idea of getting Cespedes has been negative. It just seems that most of the highly praised “mature” players who have come from other countries (and played professionally in those other countries) have never quite lived up to expectations at the Major League level.

Nothing in what I have read about Cespedes has convinced me of anything different. Cespedes’s stats in the Cuban league are close to video game levels. Last year he batted .333 with an OPS that approached 1.100. He also had 33 home runs and 99 RBI in only 90 games.

He’s a very good defender with an above average arm in the outfield. He is supposedly patient at the plate. He’s built like a fullback (could the Bears use him?) but has some pretty good speed. If you add it all together, he is the clichéd “5 tool” athlete.

So what’s the down side here? A couple of things…

First off, his experience is in the Cuban League, which most experts say is the equivalent of single-A minor league ball. So as a 25 year old, he played in single-A ball, putting him behind the development of most other minor league players. It’s difficult to say how Cespedes’s number will translate to the big leagues, but potentially he could be a .290 hitter hitting about 15 to 20 homers a season. That makes him look an awful lot like Marlon Byrd.

Second, his price, for someone that has only proven his success at a single-A level, is going to be extremely high. Two years ago, the Reds took a chance on Aroldis Chapman and paid him $30 million for 6 years. A good percentage of that is in a signing bonus, but still it is about $5 million a year. So far Chapman has been nothing more than a setup man for the Reds, though they may try to make him a starter again. His control has been a bit iffy and has started to show some injury problems. I bring up Chapman because it is assumed that Cespedes will sign for significantly more. My guess is that he might sign for 5 to 6 years at $40 to $50 million. That’s a bit frightening.

For me, I just don’t see the benefit for the Cubs to sign a player like Cespedes at the moment. It is assumed that after a brief stint in the minor leagues, he would be playing at the major league level. But at 26 years old, the Cubs will have to pay a high price to a player who technically should be reaching his prime but has never played higher than single-A ball. At the same time, Cespedes would be hitting his prime as the Cubs are in the middle of a rebuilding process. Cespedes should be a player who you are using to potentially push a team over the top to a division title or something of that sort.

While the Japanese leagues are better than the Cuban league, I look at signing Cespedes in a similar way to the signing of Kosuke Fukudome. The Cubs were coming off a division title in 2007 and looked to Fukudome to fill a hole to help maintain that success. They could afford to do that coming off a division title. The Cubs would have still been favored to win the NL Central in 2008 even if they had not signed Fukudome. Cespedes should be looked at in a similar fashion. Yes, he’s a bit younger, and a little less experienced, but he is likely to be looked at to make a contribution to the big league level in very short order.

The Cubs don’t need that right now. They are looking to develop talent. They should be looking at younger players who will spend a little more time in the minor leagues, and will be less of a financial hit than Cespedes will be. In fact, there is another Cuban defector, Jorge Soler, who is only 19 and has some of the same skills that Cespedes and will be a free agent soon as well. This might be a better alternative.

So far this offseason, the Cubs have acquired 2 types of players, mid-level veterans as place holders and younger prospects with many years of team control that they hope to develop. Cespedes really doesn’t fit under either of these categories. Soler does. Consistency would say that the Cubs would make a significant effort to sign Soler and save the money they could have spent on Cespedes to use in bolstering up player development and scouting other players. (But how the Cubs actually allocate all that money is a mystery.)

The power and overall stills that Cespedes has really is quite attractive and in years past should have made the Cubs and all of us fans drool. Things are different now and while it is a time for taking risks on prospects, paying $40 to $50 million for Cespedes doesn’t seem quite right when there are many other cheaper prospects that the Cubs could take a risk on.

Prince is a Tiger

2012-01-24T21:02:00.002-06:00

Just a quick post...

Prince Fielder is going to sign with the Tigers.

Contract, 9 years and $214 million.

Scott Boras is a genius.

Prince in a Cubs uniform? Not a chance.

In the end, even though this contract will become a nightmare for Tigers in about 5 years, I still think this is a great signing for them. With the their lineup and pitching, the Tigers will likely be the favorites to win the AL Central for the next 4 years. That gives them plenty of chances to win it all. That will make this contract worth it.

For the Cubs, they may not have added anything significant pieces this off-season, but the subtraction of Fielder and Pujols in the NL Central is a very good thing.

So, Prince is a Tiger...

Cubs unveil revised party deck plans

2012-01-24T08:45:00.001-06:00

Today the Cubs unveiled revised plans for the party deck in right field.

After receiving almost unanimous support for the original plans, the Cubs have now submitted an even more ambitious plan to enhance the ballpark.

"We decided that, after evaluating what other teams have done and been successful with, we will try to do our own take on those successful ideas," said Crane Kenney, Cubs president of business operations.

One of the original criticisms of the original plans for the party deck was that is appeared to be designed after the seats on top of the Green Monster at Boston's Fenway Park. The plans unveiled today will likely amplify those thoughts:

When asked whether the new expanded plans were a direct rip off of the Boston landmark, Kenney said, "No, not in any way. First off, all of our renovations are in right field, and everyone knows that the Green Monster in Boston is in left field."

Local Cubs fan and Wrigleyville resident, Kyle Hetherstad, was critical of the change, "You can tell that Theo Epstein has had tremendous influence over these new plans. How are people from the 'L' tracks supposed to see into the ballpark now? What's next? Clam chowder with your bison dogs?"

Kenney stated, when asked about Epstein's input, "We had some discussions with Theo, but he's been more involved in Yawkey Way duplica...um...oops...I mean triangle building."

The cost of one of the new party deck tickets is targeted to be around $400 each. "At that price, any fan will be able to afford to get some of the best seats at Wrigley."

Kenney finished the unveiling of the plans by stating that the Cubs hope to have the changes complete by opening day. "It will really enhance the fan experience at Wrigley and we are excited to get these new seats in place."

Money to spend

2012-01-17T22:27:00.000-06:00

It's time to look at the Cubs payroll now that they've pretty much settled contracts with most of the arbitration eligible players.

Let's first look at the players under contracts:

Alfonso Soriano	$18,000,000
Marlon Byrd	$6,500,000
Reed Johnson	$1,150,000
David DeJesus	$4,250,000
Ian Stewart	$2,237,000
Jeff Baker	$1,375,000
Blake DeWitt	$1,100,000
Geovany Soto	$4,300,000
Ryan Dempster	$14,000,000
Randy Wells	$2,705,000
Paul Maholm	$4,750,000
Carlos Marmol	$7,000,000
Kerry Wood	$3,000,000
Jeff Samardzija	$2,240,000
Chris Volstad	$2,655,000

The numbers are also in for Matt Garza and he's asking for $10.2 million with the Cubs are offering $7.95 million. Let's just split the difference and say that Garza is getting $9.1 million.

That gives us a running total of about $84 million.

The remaining players that will be on the 25 man roster will all be earning around the league minimum. For now, my best guess on the remainder of the roster would be the following players:

Tony Campana

Starlin Castro

Darwin Barney

Bryan LaHair

Wellington Castillo

Travis Wood

James Russell

Casey Coleman

Marcos Mateo

That's another $4.5 million if they get $500k a piece.

That moves the Cubs up to around $89 million.

Remember, the Cubs owe $17 million to the Marlins for Carlos Zambrano too.

Now we are up to $106 million

Compared to last year where the Cubs had a payroll of $130 million or so, it would appear that the Cubs have about $25 million available to spend.

But don't believe that this means that they will go after Prince Fielder. Despite what some members of the press still insist on, Fielder is not in the Cubs plans for 2012.

However, that payroll disparity does mean that the Cubs could make an investment in someone like, oh, Yoenis Cespedes. I personally don't want that Cubs to go after the 26 year old Cuban, but that is to be talked about on another day.

This is what rebuilding looks like. And don't be surprised if that payroll number doesn't exceed $115 million in 2012.

A new scoreboard coming to Wrigley

2012-01-15T09:13:00.000-06:00

The biggest news to come out of the Cubs Convention this weekend was not the fact that Kerry Wood was re-signed (and never was), but the fact that the Cubs are going to be replacing the Bleacher Box seats in right field with a new patio deck and a 70 foot wide LED board.

This is quite a stunning turn of events here.

We can only deduce what this is going to actually be from the picture:

It appears, at least from the picture, that the board will contain advertisements and in-game stats. I would guess that they could put some limited video on it too.

The patio will likely reduce the overall capacity of Wrigley by a few hundred, but should produce more revenue. The Bleacher Box seats, which were created when the bleachers were expanded in 2006, never sold all that well. The look of the patio has similarities to the seats that are on top of the Green Monster in Fenway Park and I'd assume the Ricketts family is hoping these seats sell as well as those Green Monster seats.

From the picture, which is obviously just a concept, it looks as if the video board will not be in play and the basket will still remain in place. Personally, I'd like to see the basket removed and a home run have to be hit over the board itself.

The board will only be about 10 to 15 feet tall, tops, so it is going to be closer to what is already under the center field scoreboard in terms of what it can display than a true video board.

Overall, I like this development and it will be a revenue generator for the Cubs (which is why it is being done). I'm hoping this doesn't completely extinguish talks about a full video board being put at Wrigley, but this is a step in the right direction. The location of this board is not the best. There will be parts of the first base side of the upper deck that will have a hard time seeing the board as well as areas of right field corner...but you are going have a tough time finding a spot inside the ballpark to put a scoreboard that can be seen by everyone.

This is also a very safe renovation to do since will have nothing to do with the mythical renovation of the main grandstand and makes for a very easy revenue increase at the ballpark.

Pretty cool.

Cubs fans go crazy for Kerry Wood and his 0.4 wins

2012-01-13T18:09:00.001-06:00

So from what I understand, the Cubs announced that Kerry Wood is coming back at the end of the opening ceremonies at the Cubs convention this evening.

And because Cubs fans don't understand why this team has sucked for so long, they went nuts when Kerry Wood and his projected 0.4 WAR was introduced to the crowd.

I just hope Jed and Theo payed Kerry for the 0.4 wins that he'll contribute and not the $4 million his supposedly was asking for.

My heart is indeed happy to see that Wood will remain in a Cubs uniform. My logical side still sees no reason that he should be on the team, though.

UPDATE:

Details are as follows:

1 year for $3 million
Team option for 2013 for $3 million

The Cubs enter the computer age.

2012-01-12T13:25:00.001-06:00

The Cubs have teamed up with Bloomberg Sports to develop a new analysis program which the team can use for player evaluation. This is probably something that is along the same lines as the "Carmine" program that Theo helped develop when he was GM for the Red Sox.

Bloomberg Sports, according to their website, creates tools for fantasy sports owners and does work with 19 other MLB teams (of which probably didn't include the Cubs before now).

I don't know what to say about this other than "cool!"

I'm guessing the Cubs will be retiring Jim Hendry's old computer, seen here.

So to the Cubs, I say, "Welcome to the 1990's!"

And to Bloomberg Sports...hey, if you need a good, smart, software engineer to help you develop this (or anything else), please contact me! No...seriously...contact me!

Selig? Retire? He's too valuable to the owners.

2012-01-11T23:11:00.001-06:00

His job title is "Commissioner of Baseball".

While he does fill the role, Bud Selig should more accurately be referred to as "The Major League Owners' Financial Manager".

"What did you say? Retirement? No thanks."

The 77 year old Selig will be given a 2 year contract extension to remain commissioner. A rumored announcement is to be made tomorrow. This goes against everything Selig has said over the last few years. Over and over again he has said that when his contract runs out, he is done. Why did we think he would? Every time his contract nears an end, he says he is going retire and he ends up staying on.

Selig may very well have intended to retire this year...but the owners won't have anything to do with that.

Selig is the second longest serving commissioner in baseball history, 19 years, and in that time 4 new franchises have been created, 20 new stadiums have been built and 4 playoff teams have been added.

These could all be considered as the legacies of Bud Selig. You can add to that interleague play, the World Baseball Classic, MLB Network, record attendance and, unfortunately, steroids as well.

But in reality, his legacy isn't any of these things. Bud Selig's legacy, and the reason the owners are so eager to keep him on as commissioner for as long as he lives, is money.

For many of these owners, Bud Selig's run atop of Major League Baseball has resulted in a huge profits and skyrocketing franchise values.

"Baseball been very good to me."

Look again at the list of things that Selig will be remembered for by fans...

4 new franchises: Money fed directly into the pockets of the existing owners
20 new stadiums (and major renovations to 4 others): Instant boost of revenues for each of those teams
4 new playoff teams: More post season games results in more sales of tickets and TV rights
Interleague play: creation of new rivalries that boost attendance and interest in the regular season
WBC: Increase the interest of baseball world wide tapping into new revenues never before available
MLB Network: Obvious monetary benefits and control of baseball media

It could even be argued that the blind eye baseball had toward steroids added significant revenues to the owners pocketbooks.

When Selig took over as commissioner in 1992, baseball as a whole had revenues of around $1 billion for the season. In 2010, baseball had around $7 billion in revenue. Average value of a franchise after the strike in 1995 was about $110 million. In 2011 the average was $520million. An owner would have quadrupled their investment on a team that they had bought in 1992. It's an average of an 11% increase during which the economy of the United States suffered from two separate economic crashes. I wish my retirement fund had that sort of return on it.

It is believed the before the strike in 1994, nearly half the major league teams were losing money. While baseball doesn't publish precise numbers, less than a hand full of teams are actually losing money now. Even teams with poor attendance and shitty ownership (hint hint...Marlins?) are operating with significant profits.

"Don't hold your breath, I'm not going anywhere."

Does Selig deserve all the credit for this? I don't know. I would image that the other major sports have seen some similar revenue increases, but basketball, hockey and football have all had either money or labor problems at some point over the last 15 years, while baseball has thrived uninterrupted.

Most of us don't like Bud Selig. I've never been a fan. I hate many of the changes he has promoted in the game like interleague play and the expanded playoffs (I'm an old fart in how I view the game). But the owners love the guy. It comes down to money. As long as Selig lives and the dollars continue to come in for the owners, we will need to accept the fact the Selig is going to be the commissioner.

Kerry Wood…I wish he wasn’t such a nice guy

2012-01-11T11:21:00.003-06:00

Kerry Wood.

Most of you know that things have gone back and forth on whether or not Kerry Wood is coming back next year.

The whole situation is extremely strange.

Kerry Wood has said in the past, that he would either play for the Cubs or retire. Well, for some reason, things have hit a snag here and Kerry is now being courted by some other teams including the Phillies and Reds.

Earlier this week, Kerry Wood was interviewed, and he sounded as if his time in Chicago was about to come to an end. Last week in an interview, Theo Epstein said that the Cubs were going to make every effort to bring Wood back and that if a deal didn’t get done, “shame on us”. Yet yesterday, GM Jed Hoyer said that the Cubs had made Wood an offer with a “significant raise”.

The fact that Hoyer made a statement like that immediate shifts the blame from Epstein’s “us” to Wood himself.

I’ve said before that Wood isn’t worth much more than about $2 to $2.5 million next year. This is a player that has had a WAR over 0.5 once since 2004. I don’t know what official projections have for Wood in 2012, but I would assume he projects about to around a WAR of 0.4 or so. That would validate my thoughts about what his salary should be next year. It might be safe to assume that Hoyer’s offer to Wood was somewhere in that range. That would be between a 33% to 67% raise over the $1.5 million that Wood made last year. Yes, that is significant, percentagewise.

Rumors have it that Wood could get around $4 million on the open market probably because of Wood’s ability to close.

It was truly a wonderful gesture last year for Wood to come back at that reduced rate. He’s a great ambassador for the Cubs and the city of Chicago. Fans love him.

Unfortunately, Wood just doesn’t have a place on this team right now. If the Cubs had no problem getting rid of Sean Marshall, another very competent setup man, why would they want to re-sign a much older, more fragile and much less reliable pitcher for possibly more money? If the Cubs were to actually re-sign Wood they couldn’t even trade him without the wrath of the world coming down on Jed and Theo for doing so.

Kerry Wood adds no value to a team that is in a full rebuilding mode and would take up a roster spot that could be used by the Cubs to give a prospect a chance to prove himself.

It pains me to say all this. I like Kerry Wood. I really don’t want to see him in another team’s uniform again (especially the Reds). But, just like the pain of some of the other moves this offseason, this is the price we pay for going “all in” with a true rebuilding effort.

Last week, it seemed as if Theo was preparing everyone one for the eventuality that Kerry Wood would not be re-signed. He was preparing to take the blame. That’s what makes Hoyer’s comments yesterday so curious. Has something changed over the last week inside the Cubs front office? Maybe they have decided that the only way to get fans to accept the fact Wood isn’t coming back is to make it look like it was Wood’s choice to leave. I don’t know.

Part of me still believes that this is all posturing by the two sides and that a deal will be worked out (and worked out in very short order). Wood still works out at Wrigley every day, according to some reports.

Unfortunately, logic tells me that this likely to be then end of Kerry in a Cubs uniform, at least as a player. The fact that Wood continues to act as if he is still a member of the team may indicate that he plans on retiring instead. I don’t know.

It will be interesting to watch how this whole situation ends because it will show us exactly how far Jed and Theo are willing to detach the current team from the 103 years of failure. You’d like to think there is some flexibility, even in the current situation, for the team to make some completely pointless, yet sentimental move. And that’s what this would be. It’s just too bad Wood is such a nice guy.

Paul Maholm contract details and analysis

2012-01-10T08:30:00.000-06:00

Bruce Levine of ESPN has posted what the details are in the Paul Maholm deal.

It's a one year contract for $4.25 million.

The Cubs have an option for a second year at $6.5 million with a $500k buyout.

Overall, I think this is a pretty good deal. Even though the Cubs are in full rebuilding mode, singing this free agent really doesn't affect anything. The Cubs will need another starter if a trade for Garza occurs, so this makes sense.

This contract is probably far under the market value for Maholm. If he puts up decent numbers this year, as a left handed starter, he'll probably have some value at the trade deadline. My guess is that the Cubs, in the short term, fill out their rotation and will hope to get a prospect or two from this signing in a future trade.

Paul Maholm is a Cub...big deal.

2012-01-09T22:24:00.001-06:00

As has been rumored for about a month now that the Cubs have been trying to sign former Pirates pitcher Paul Maholm. Well, according to a number of sources, they signed him today.

Maholm was 6-14 this past year, but put up some decent numbers outside of that. As I recall, he got hurt near the end of the season...but it's too late and I'm not going to bother to look it up.

The Pirates declined to pick up his $9 million option for 2011.

Terms of the deal haven't been released, so until I know what those are, I'll refrain on stating whether or not this is a good deal.

Maholm isn't a top of the rotation starter, but he's a serviceable left hander who has recorded a couple of pretty good seasons in his 7 year big league career. He walks a few too many for my taste, but gets ground balls and keeps the ball in the ballpark.

With Maholm in place, the Cubs currently have Travis Wood, Ryan Dempster, and Chris Volstad set in the rotation. Now we see if Garza sticks around or if Randy Wells is the 5th starter.

Garza watch 2012! What can Detroit give us?

2012-01-09T21:58:00.001-06:00

I was about to do a story today about where the Cubs roster currently stands. Well, I've decided to hold off on that post for a little while as a rumor from David Kaplan blew up this afternoon on Twitter.

from @thekapman on Twitter:

Sources tell me that the Cubs and Tigers are down the road on a deal that would send Matt Garza to the Motor City.

When asked to clarify this, Kaplan responded:

When I say "down the road" on trade talks with the Tigers for Garza I mean that talks have progressed far beyond the initial stages.

Not going to be a Cub soon.

I'm not sure why, but my gut tells me this is likely a true statement.

Kaplan has also stated that the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays are also still interested in an article he wrote for CSN.

So what can the Cubs expect from the Tigers in return for Garza? Well, at the very least, the Cubs will want at least one, probably two, of the Tigers top prospects as part of the deal. So who would we be looking at here?

Mark Grace fans will rejoice that the number 17 will be pure again.

In most every report I've seen, the top two prospects that are talked about in the Tigers system are right handed pitcher Jacob Turner and 3rd baseman Nick Castellanos.

Turner is a 21 year old who made his major league debut this past season. He was the Tigers first round draft pick in 2009 and has been ranked in the top 30 of BAs prospects list for 2010 and 2011. He's got a fastball in the mid-90s and decent curveball according to scouting reports. He's tall at 6'5" which you would hope could lead to some good downward movement on his pitches. He's had some issues with his forearm which has led some people to be concerned about his durability. Based on his stats, his control seams to be ok, but not great. Kaplan has mentioned, as have a few other reporters, that the Tigers are willing to let Turner go. For the Tigers, the prospect of getting a sure thing in Garza with two years control in return for a prospect who may have injury problems and who might not meet expectations seems like a logical idea...especially if they are going to make another serious run at a title this coming season.

Nick Castellanos was draft in the supplemental portion in the first round of the 2010 draft. He'll be 20 years old at the start of the 2012 season. He had a very nice first full season in the minors last year hitting well over .300. The scouting reports for are extremely positive for this kid. He's got a nice, quick swing and power to all fields. Defensively he's got an above average arm with average range. He's quite young yet and has only one full professional season under his belt. He didn't hit for a ton of power in his first season, but that might come as he develops over the next few years. I don't believe most people see Castellanos being ready for the big leagues until 2014. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has stated the the Tigers might not be willing to part with Castellanos...but if they want Garza and are in competition with 3 other teams for him, they might end up letting Castellanos go.

A group of 3 other left handed pitchers may targeted by the Cubs as well.

First, 23 year old Casey Crosby who had Tommy John surgery a few years ago. He has recovered and 2011 was his first year back where he put up only so-so numbers in AA with some serious control issues (77 walks in 131 innings). The Tigers think very highly of him as they put in on their 40 man roster to prevent him from being exposed to the rule 5 draft.

Next is 22 year old Drew Smyly who had a really nice year split between A and AA posting and ERA of about 2.00. He's got a fastball in the low 90's with decent control. I'm not sure if he projects out to be a #1 or #2 starter, but he appears to have good enough stuff to be solid middle of the rotation starter in the big leagues.

Finally is 24 year old Andy Oliver who is a power arm with big potential. He's made starts (7) at the big league level over the last two seasons with limited success. He didn't have a very good season at AAA last year either. His fastball averages in the mid 90's, but he gave up 80 walks in 147 innings last year which is quite disturbing. He's got electric stuff, though.

Other names to watch for are catcher Rob Brantly, outfielders Avisail Garcia and Daniel Fields, and infielder Hernan Perez.

**********************

"Where's that seagull that pooped on me?"

I personally would like to see Garza stay, but if the Cubs could get Turner and one of these other prospects listed above along with 1 or 2 other lower rated minor leaguers, then I'd be perfectly happy with the trade. A number of these players are better than any of the players the Cubs gave away to the Rays last year.

With the Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays still interested, the Cubs are in a really good position here and I don't expect Garza to be around for much longer.

Barry Larkin...Hall of Famer without a doubt

2012-01-09T10:28:00.000-06:00

Barry Larkin was elected to the Hall of Fame today.

Well deserved.

Larkin defies gravity at Wrigley.
(photo from AP)

For some reason, baseball’s Hall of Fame voters (BBWAA) has this ridiculous thought process in electing players to the Hall. Barry Larkin, to me, from the moment he retired, was a Hall of Famer. I don’t know why it took him 3 tries before he got in.

What changed about Barry Larkin’s career over these last three years?

Anyway, Larkin was the only player elected to the Hall this year (in the traditional way, not taking anything away from Ron Santo). Larkin’s career speaks for itself. He was an All-Star 12 times, won the Silver Slugger 9 times, 3 Gold Gloves and was MVP in 1995. He had a WAR of over 5.0 in 8 seasons.

Quite simply he was the best shortstop in the National League during the 90s.

I made the argument last year that I thought it was insane that Roberto Alomar was elected last year and Larkin wasn’t. Alomar was to 2^nd base what Larkin was to shortstop. Their careers were strikingly similar.

I suppose that if any argument could be made against Larkin, it could be said that his numbers were a bit bloated because I got to play the Cubs some much. (His .OPS against the Cubs was about 60 points higher than his career mark.)

But justice was served right today and Larkin will get his rightful play in Cooperstown this summer. He was the only player elected, and looking at the rest of the ballot, Larkin was by far the best player in the group. The only other player who deserves some serious consideration is Bernie Williams, but his stats really don’t justify his election, in my opinion.

Congrats, Barry!

Remember when these guys were the team's future?

2012-01-06T16:39:00.000-06:00

Before the 2011 season, the Cubs were promoting "the kids" as the new era for the Cubs...

Yes...

Colvin, Cashner, Castro

Ut oh.

Cashner was traded.

Colvin was traded.

And Castro has been accused of sexual assault.

It's a new era alright.

Updated: Rizzo is a Cub...Cashner is not.

2012-01-06T13:25:00.001-06:00

Rumor coming across right now is that the Cubs have traded Andrew Cashner to the Padres for 1st baseman Anthony Rizzo.

A new Cub.

Also in the trade, the Cubs are receiving pitcher Zack Cates and the Padres are getting outfielder Kyung-Min Na.

We suspected that the Cubs might be interested in Rizzo a month ago and the Padres really had no spot for their #1 prospect since the Mat Latos trade.

At this point, Cashner was probably going to have to compete with Randy Wells for the 5th starter spot so he might have needed to move on to get a chance to start consistently.

Rizzo was drafted by Theo Epstein and traded to the Padres a few years later in the Adrian Gonzalez deal.

This is a pretty big get for the Cubs. Rizzo is still looked at as a top prospect even though his time in the big leagues last year didn't go that well. I would assume that the Cubs will be making every effort to give the starting 1st base job to Rizzo.

The pitcher the Cubs got in the deal, Zack Cates, is 22 years old and just finished if first year in the Padres system. He was the Padres' 3rd round pick in 2010. He has a fastball in the low to mid 90's and is 6'3" and 200 lbs.

Na is a 20 year old outfielder who was in his second season in the Cubs minor league system and made his way AA last year. He hasn't put up much of any great numbers and hasn't hit a single homer since the was signed in 2010.

So it looks as if Bryan LaHair, whom Theo Epstein proclaimed as the Cubs first baseman as recently as Wednesday, may be moved to the bench again.

*******************
UPDATE:

Jed Hoyer said in a conference call today that LaHair will still be the starting first baseman this coming season and that Rizzo will start 2012 in Iowa.

Oh Crap...Starlin?!?!?!?!

2012-01-06T08:30:00.001-06:00

A report on WBBM by Mike Krauser this morning has stated that Starlin Castro has been accused of a sexual assault on a woman. The incident occurred on September 29th, right after the end of the season. The next day Castro left the country.

We don't know if there is any truth this, but it is being investigated by the authorities.

All I have to say is 'shit'. We really don't know what happened and I don't want to judge anything before all the evidence is presented, but I have a bad feeling about this.

What else can I say? I'm extremely disappointed. Since the Sam Hurd thing, I have a tendency to believe the worst about everything.

If you want to see the report, you can go here.

A photo tribute to Carlos Zambrano

2012-01-04T20:42:00.000-06:00

And for me...the highlight of Zambrano's career:

In the end, this will be a good move for Z. Good luck with Ozzie in Florida, Carlos!

Z is gone...who is to blame?

2012-01-04T20:16:00.002-06:00

Z is gone.

He's been traded to Miami.

A month ago I said that he would likely stay on the team until the trade deadline in July.

Nothing really changed on the surface.

So what happened?

This is what I think happened....

When Theo Epstein took over this team a few months ago, he looked at the statistics, he looked at the current roster, he looked at Z contract and I believe he thought, "Let's give this kid one more chance."

He talked to Z and his agent, gave him some guidelines that would allow him to come back and everything was set.

So why was he traded for practically nothing?

Was it the media?

No.

Was it the fans?

No.

It was the rest of the team.

Over the last few months we've heard from players like Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood that if Z were to come back, he would have to do a lot of work for the rest of the clubhouse to accept him. This team has put up with a lot from Z over the last few years, and these guys really didn't want him back.

Theo Epstein basically leaked the fact that Z was going to be gone soon during his WGN interview today...

"The Carlos Zambrano of 2011 and years previous can’t fit into the culture that we have here"

That should have been the warning sign that something was about to happen.

I think Jed and Theo talked to members of the roster and came to the conclusion that, despite what they had said a few months earlier, Zambrano could not return to the Cubs.

It's too bad it ended this way, and it's too bad that the Cubs are probably going to be paying $17 million this season for Chris Volstad to get shelled every 5th game.

It's Z's fault that things got to this point, but I think it's the players' fault that he didn't get one last chance.